id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-7crbztfikm | Will the moderators fact check a candidate in real time at the 2024 Vice Presidential Debate? | The CNN Presidential debate in 2024 had no fact-checking, while the ABC News debate saw its moderators aggressively fact-check Donald Trump. Will the moderators of the Vice Presidential debate on October 1 fact-check any of the candidates?
This market resolves to YES if the moderators correct one of the candidates an... | 2024-09-28T13:24:58 | 2024-10-02T04:12:54 | 2024-10-02T04:12:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6f0zm01a3s | Will the Republicans control the US Senate after the 2024 election? | This question resolves after the Associated Press projects which party will control the United States Senate following the 2024 US general election and all relevant runoff/special elections.
This question resolves YES if the Republican Party will be in control, or NO otherwise. This question will wait to resolve unti... | 2024-09-28T13:07:57 | 2024-11-05T21:28:09 | 2024-11-05T21:28:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b6b8o2g7tm | Will the Republicans control the US House after the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-28T12:48:02 | 2024-11-16T11:53:56 | 2024-11-18T06:01:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i2mm73jgb3 | Someone sweeps seven swing states? | Will a candidate in the upcoming POTUS election win all seven swing states?
Swing states for the purposes of this market are the same as the ones currently on Manifold's election dashboard: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Even if Manifold decides to change the dashboard... | 2024-09-27T19:45:56 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-08T04:20:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5qo3fykn3 | Bitcoin $72K in October 2024? | Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $72,000 USD at any point in October 2024, according to the data on blockchain.info. If it does not reach $72,000 during October 2024, it will resolve to "No." | 2024-09-27T17:39:48 | 2024-10-29T08:44:52 | 2024-10-29T08:44:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vyoppkebe7 | Bitcoin above $65000 on October 25? | Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is at or above $65,000 USD at any point on October 25, according to the data on blockchain.info. If the price does not reach $65,000 on that day, it will resolve to "No." | 2024-09-27T17:36:13 | 2024-10-24T23:59:00 | 2024-10-25T04:05:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-38fnzviqe3 | Will Kamala Harris lose NC but win a different Trump 2020 state? | Resolves YES if Kamala Harris loses North Carolina, but wins a different state that Donald Trump won in 2020. | 2024-09-27T14:09:23 | 2024-11-06T16:12:33 | 2024-11-06T16:12:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wzl5sb9tda | Was Hassan Nasrallah killed today (9/27/24)? | Will resolve if/when death is reported by New York Times.
[image] | 2024-09-27T11:02:47 | 2024-09-28T05:41:33 | 2024-09-28T05:41:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xe4uknd0b2 | Will Kamala Harris hold a gun before election day? | Apparently Momala is a gun gal. Will a picture of Kamala Harris holding a gun be released before election day?
The photo can’t be AI enhanced (will be relying on reputable US media if in dispute), but doesn’t necessarily need to have been captured after market creation. Kamala must have the gun in her hands, for this ... | 2024-09-26T09:18:44 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-11-05T03:58:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4l535of0dj | Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-26T00:20:24 | 2024-11-07T23:22:49 | 2024-11-07T23:22:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k5w5rpledt | OpenAI to become a for-profit by EOY? | https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/
SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is working on a plan to restructure its core business into a for-profit benefit corporation that will no longer be controlle... | 2024-09-25T18:39:32 | 2024-12-31T02:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:33:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nfgxbflelg | Will Eric Adams resign or announce he will resign as mayor of NYC before the end of October? | https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/25/nyregion/eric-adams-indicted-corruption
Will resolve YES if Eric Adams issues a statement saying he will step down, even if the day he step's down is after October 31st. | 2024-09-25T18:14:13 | 2024-10-31T19:49:28 | 2024-10-31T19:49:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-80te29e9gh | Will Trump win North Carolina in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in ... | 2024-09-25T17:50:09 | 2024-11-05T20:27:47 | 2024-11-05T20:27:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1vtqd9j0mn | Will Trump win Wisconsin in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Wisco... | 2024-09-25T17:49:15 | 2024-11-06T02:55:23 | 2024-11-06T02:55:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h07wvp9vss | Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Michigan the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Michigan,... | 2024-09-25T17:48:22 | 2024-11-07T23:22:59 | 2024-11-07T23:22:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dse5g7e0xg | Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state? | Does not include split electoral votes by congressional districts, only the statewide vote
If either is not the nominee on election day, the replacement will be substituted. | 2024-09-25T16:56:37 | 2024-11-06T11:39:00 | 2024-11-06T11:39:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-snf255a9l6 | Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-25T15:49:46 | 2024-11-07T23:16:27 | 2024-11-07T23:16:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1u8gdhl386 | Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Nevada, ... | 2024-09-25T15:44:36 | 2024-11-07T23:16:37 | 2024-11-07T23:16:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2i4y8488ez | Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Arizona... | 2024-09-25T15:41:59 | 2024-11-07T23:21:22 | 2024-11-07T23:21:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j9iag2qcos | Will Trump win Georgia in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Georgia in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Georgia... | 2024-09-25T15:41:02 | 2024-11-05T22:08:01 | 2024-11-05T22:08:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-t7fuc67b72 | Will Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Pe... | 2024-09-25T15:20:35 | 2024-11-05T23:30:31 | 2024-11-05T23:30:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4nlpu019vj | Will Trump publicly mention AGI or Superintelligence before 2025? | https://x.com/IvankaTrump/status/1839002887600370145
[image]Resolves based on public reporting. | 2024-09-25T11:32:48 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:36:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i9wkw83obt | Will Donald Trump flee the United States before January 20, 2025? | This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is confirmed to have left the United States with no intent to return before January 20, 2025. | 2024-09-25T10:24:52 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-21T05:25:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ajoazne9l9 | Will November 2024 pass with no missile alarms in Haifa city? | following the beginning of operation "Northern Arrows" and the escalation in Israel-Hezbbolah war, there is an increased concern that this might be a prolonged situation, and Hezbullah will continue to launch missles\rockets\UAV to Israel.
In order to quantify the de-escaltion (that hopefully will follow), I have set... | 2024-09-25T01:36:55 | 2024-11-03T05:18:58 | 2024-11-03T05:18:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7uivuecibg | Will an injunction or executive action or executive order be issued that stops the east coast port strike in 2024? | Resolves to YES if there is a court issues an injunction that halts the east coast port strike, as described in the Twitter thread linked by Ryan Peterson below, or if another executive action or executive order is used by the administration to forcibly halt the strike.
Resolves to NO if the strike resolves or is pre... | 2024-09-24T16:06:03 | 2024-11-07T06:36:05 | 2024-11-07T06:36:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tn0w9skib1 | Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024? | Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least three full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen ... | 2024-09-24T15:50:53 | 2024-10-04T06:24:03 | 2024-10-04T06:24:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gf383e376q | Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least one week in 2024? | Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least one full week prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.... | 2024-09-24T15:49:48 | 2024-10-04T06:23:52 | 2024-10-04T06:23:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p0bs34x9sc | Will Sean "Diddy" Combs be alive on Jan 1st 2025? | As we know Diddy has been arrested, and is held in Federal custody in Brooklyn, denied bail.
According to the news, he's been refusing his meals, concerned about poisoning.
https://deepnewz.com/search?q=Diddy
[image]It is rumored that Diddy has dirt on a lot of people. Will he be Epstein'd?
The market will resolve a... | 2024-09-24T12:37:07 | 2025-01-02T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T17:51:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ii557o8cda | Will a major AI model be released on Sept 25 ? | Sept 25 2024, aoe
inspired from https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-major-ai-model-upgrade-be-re?play=true
This resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, or Meta release a major new model. Additionally, if any other lab launches a new model that clearly signals "a big day for developers," it also counts.
Quali... | 2024-09-24T12:07:19 | 2024-09-25T16:32:31 | 2024-09-25T16:32:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bdacv78rms | Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election get more than 280 electoral votes? | Resolves as soon as the final state is called by AP or NYTimes | 2024-09-23T22:20:19 | 2024-11-06T19:57:17 | 2024-11-06T19:57:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xkh366wt3b | Will a major AI model be released on Sept 24? | If OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, or Meta release a major new model this resolves YES. Also, if another lab releases a new model whose release clearly constitutes "a big day for developers", that counts too.
Things that would count as major new models are:
models with a different name to an existing one (e.g. Claude... | 2024-09-23T20:03:59 | 2024-09-25T00:59:00 | 2024-09-25T04:58:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-olfmdallt3 | Will Truth Social shares (DJT) fall below $10 by the end of September? | Truth social floated on the stock market in March, and the share price has fallen from a high of $79 to under $15:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
Truth Social had been losing money and has revenues far lower than they would need to even justify this new, far lower share price. Do shareholders believe... | 2024-09-23T10:31:14 | 2024-09-30T15:59:00 | 2024-10-01T06:50:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2t8ttriwlk | F1 - Will Daniel Ricciardo be replaced for the next Grand Prix? (US Grand Prix - 20th October) | Daniel Ricciardo was once considered to be one of the best drivers in F1, but he has been underperforming for a few years and he has had a poor 2024.
There have been a lot of suggestions that Singapore was his last race in F1.
Will he be replaced for the next Grand Prix?
If RB announce that they are replacing him wi... | 2024-09-23T07:00:19 | 2024-09-26T09:53:50 | 2024-09-26T09:53:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8ug4dhm32f | Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)? | Resolves YES if the AfD party gets the most seats compared to any party after the 2025 national election.
Resolves NO if there is any other party that gets more seats than the AfD. CDU/CSU will be counted as one party.
Edit: This market will apply to the expected earlier election in 2025. | 2024-09-23T04:21:51 | 2025-03-01T08:06:23 | 2025-03-01T08:06:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g9d1esy1vp | Will Magnus be taken off his throne by the end of 2024 FIDE classic rating? | This post explores the possibility of Ding Liren or Gukesh dethroning Magnus Carlsen from his throne by the end of 2024. As it stands, Magnus currently holds the highest FIDE Classic rating, but will he be able to maintain this position amid emerging talents and fierce competition?
Specifically, can players like Ding ... | 2024-09-23T03:06:46 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-07T08:25:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zpaelmtxnr | Bitcoin above $60K on Jan 1, 2025? | Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Bitcoin is at or above $60,000 USD at any time on January 1, 2025, based on blockchain.info. If it stays below $60K, it resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time: January 1, 2025, at 23:59 PST. | 2024-09-22T23:57:25 | 2025-01-01T00:42:38 | 2025-01-01T00:42:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dizvte8tdr | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Georgia defeat Alabama? | Kickoff: Saturday, September 28, 2024 - 6:30 PM CDT
Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, Alabama | 2024-09-22T18:35:12 | 2024-09-28T20:33:49 | 2024-09-28T20:33:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ail7d2gk0g | Donald Trump wins a non-swing Harris state? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state-wide popular vote of any blue state on the map below.
[image]State by state election forecasts:
https://manifold.markets/election
https://polymarket.com/elections
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Also see: @/JTX/will-kamala-harris-win-any-nons... | 2024-09-22T16:58:24 | 2024-11-05T12:00:00 | 2024-11-06T02:26:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d7uhb6o979 | Kamala Harris wins a non-swing Trump state? | Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the state-wide popular vote of any red state on the map below.
[image]State by state election forecasts:
https://manifold.markets/election
https://polymarket.com/elections
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Also see: @/JTX/will-donald-trump-win-any-nonsw... | 2024-09-22T16:48:24 | 2024-11-05T19:28:40 | 2024-11-05T21:13:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zdqdqyfw23 | Will there be an attack ad that criticizes Donald Trump for his statement about eating dogs and cats by election day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-22T14:22:45 | 2024-09-28T09:48:28 | 2024-09-28T09:48:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-q18ep2hnm7 | Will Joe Biden visit Africa in 2024? | Resolves Yes if Joe Biden visits Africa in 2024(!) | 2024-09-22T11:08:25 | 2024-12-04T11:41:39 | 2024-12-04T11:41:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rvru7ta6vv | Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024? | As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:
spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.
I wonder if any of the big labs is a... | 2024-09-22T07:06:23 | 2024-12-20T06:36:31 | 2024-12-20T06:36:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6gx532gqjy | Will GME reach $50 before the end of October 2024? | GameStop GME stock closed at $21.85 on September 20th 2024 | 2024-09-21T23:31:18 | 2024-10-31T17:03:07 | 2024-10-31T17:03:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xmfoc3qvak | Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed in October 2024? | Rumors of the Nintendo Switch successor ("Nintendo Switch 2") reveal have been swirling lately among both gaming media and fans. While the focus was originally on September, it's possible the reveal could occur in October too. The original Switch was revealed in October 2016 for release in March 2017.
If you'd like to... | 2024-09-21T14:31:30 | 2024-10-31T23:59:00 | 2024-11-01T00:38:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2l0fxt84e0 | Will 42 or fewer total games be played during the 2024 MLB Postseason? | Under the new format, the four series in the Wild Card are best of three, leading to a range of 8 to 12 games.
The four Division series are best of five, leading to a range of 12 to 20 games.
The two League Championship Series and the World Series are both best of seven, leading to a range of 8 to 14 games for the L... | 2024-09-21T08:28:06 | 2024-10-30T05:39:26 | 2024-10-30T05:39:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y6kqkdeee7 | Will Qualcomm buy a part of Intel? | Resolves YES if Qualcomm and Intel agree to a deal where Qualcomm buys a part of Intel.
This resolves on agreement only. Doesn't need to pass FTC scrutiny or anything.
Real estate only deal doesn't count.
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/qualcomm-approached-intel-about-a-takeover-in-recent-days-fa114f9d | 2024-09-21T05:31:03 | 2025-01-22T20:59:00 | 2025-01-23T06:11:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y2ll7om6v5 | Will the UK accept an EU proposal for a youth mobility scheme (in 2024)? | I wont be betting.
Context for the market: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/20/eu-youth-mobility-proposal-uk
Changes must involve the right to live and work in other countries, not only to study. Other policy changes e.g. dropping of international tuition fees do not count if they dont also involve some for... | 2024-09-20T12:40:57 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-05T23:50:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a1gaokvvc8 | Will someone try to hurt Barron Trump at NYU this year? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-20T10:11:21 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T08:26:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b51q22v67g | Will Jimmy Carter make it through Thanksgiving dinner? | YES - Jimmy Carter is still alive after Dolphins-Packers kicks off | 2024-09-20T07:27:11 | 2024-11-28T20:59:00 | 2024-11-28T21:28:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w16wkmgd7r | Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $40 USD this year ? | Resolves to YES, if at any time during 2024, the INTC stock is traded at $40 USD or above. Otherwise, it resolves to NO. | 2024-09-20T07:24:56 | 2024-12-31T13:00:00 | 2024-12-31T13:11:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b8ozzbfkqc | One month from today Will Kamala be above Donald Trump on Polymarket? | resolves 50 if tie
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024 | 2024-09-20T00:24:12 | 2024-10-20T20:59:00 | 2024-10-20T21:06:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vevcxf6kuv | Will Anne Wojcicki remain CEO of 23andMe through the end of 2024? | Anne Wojcicki is fielding enormous controversy over her plans to take 23andMe private, after years of declining share prices and unclear strategic vision for the company.
Resolves YES if she is the CEO continuously for the rest of the year. If at any point she is not the CEO, resolves NO. | 2024-09-19T18:37:04 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T11:05:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w19yqvmgr7 | Will October suprise be a land invasion of Lebanon by Israel? | Will Israel launch a invasion of Lebanon by the end of October 2024?
Resolves yes if so. | 2024-09-19T15:45:35 | 2024-10-01T02:30:02 | 2024-10-01T02:30:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ecyfuqljx8 | Will Kamala Harris flip a state? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-19T11:12:45 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T23:14:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wu0mzxhtjz | Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery? | I have seen speculation that the explosions could have been caused by lithium batteries alone, or that they may have been implanted with other explosives.
Resolves "no" if the batteries were modified but no unusual material was added | 2024-09-19T10:26:19 | 2024-10-07T07:59:59 | 2024-10-07T07:59:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8lzim0xx9 | Will Mark Robinson drop out of the NC Governor race before Election Day? | [tweet] | 2024-09-19T10:04:23 | 2024-11-05T04:15:54 | 2024-11-05T04:15:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7llbgclaav | [short fuse] Will Mark Robinson drop out of the NC Governor race before September 21st, 1 PM ET? | Context: 'Major drama' as MAGA candidate cancels events amid potentially explosive story: reporter
Resolves YES if Mark Robinson drops out (e.g. announces he will be suspending his campaign for governor) before question close at 1 PM ET on Saturday, September 21st. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2024-09-19T10:02:11 | 2024-09-21T10:02:00 | 2024-09-21T14:40:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-30oddprhzg | Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-18T17:27:21 | 2024-11-06T14:10:25 | 2024-11-06T14:10:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-67ioearfr8 | Will Guantanamo Bay be closed by the time Joe Biden's term ends? | https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/durbin-leads-17-senators-in-urging-president-biden-to-act-swiftly-to-close-the-guantanamo-bay-detention-facility
Resolves NO if anyone is imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay and Joe Biden is not President.
Resolves YES if the facility has no assigned prisoners. | 2024-09-18T16:36:15 | 2025-01-20T11:44:54 | 2025-01-20T11:44:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tucfxr8cv3 | Will Kamala Harris lead Donald Trump in the upcoming NYT / Siena poll of Pennsylvania? | This question resolves based on the head-to-head margin in the upcoming NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania.
It resolves YES if the upcoming NYT/Siena poll shows Harris leading in the head-to-head margin, or resolves NO if Trump is leading.
This question resolves 50% if the NYT shows the head-to-head margin as exactly ti... | 2024-09-18T10:40:10 | 2024-09-19T04:14:20 | 2024-09-19T04:14:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jtcbs646h1 | Will Taylor Swift release a new song by December 31, 2024 that references recent political events? | ꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fjjdz5/mmw_taylor_swift_will_drop_a_new_song/
[image]Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Taylor Swift releases a new song by December 31, 2024
The song's lyrics contain clear references to at lea... | 2024-09-18T05:42:48 | 2025-01-18T23:45:37 | 2025-01-18T23:45:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u3hlsz7ypw | Will Ivanka Trump release a tell-all book about Donald Trump before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election? | ꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fjheua/mmw_ivanka_will_release_a_tell_all_book_before/
[image]Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Ivanka Trump publishes a book before November 5, 2024 (Election Day) that:
a) Provides significant... | 2024-09-18T05:37:44 | 2024-11-05T08:57:07 | 2024-11-05T08:57:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8x3isbazl6 | Will another state sponsored “pager detonation” like event take place by the end of 2024? | Any attack that uses comparable tactics to the Mossad exploding pager attack of 9/17. | 2024-09-17T23:50:36 | 2024-09-18T08:36:45 | 2024-09-18T08:36:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8g2hx01abi | Will Shohei Ohtani pitch for the Dodgers during the 2024 postseason? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-17T23:39:35 | 2024-10-31T09:51:53 | 2024-10-31T09:51:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pzijgsdptp | Another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026? | I don't think I've ever heard of an attack like the recent Lebanon pager explosions.
This resolves YES if there is any attack anywhere in the world involving:
At least 100 devices
Rigged, hacked or otherwise deliberately made to cause injury or death
The devices appear to be peaceful devices like phones or pagers,... | 2024-09-17T19:28:02 | 2024-09-18T17:50:02 | 2024-09-18T17:50:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-67dyzdbf5s | Will Shohei Ohtani hit more than 5 home runs in the 2024 postseason? | Counting all games after the regular season, including Wild Card and its Play-In.
More than 5 means, 5 = NO
Also bet on:
@/mattyb/2024-mlb-world-series-mega-market-a
@/mattyb/how-many-home-runs-will-shohei-ohta-38ynaal8uz
@/mattyb/if-the-dodgers-win-the-2024-world-s
@/mattyb/which-team-will-win-the-2024-mlb-wo... | 2024-09-17T18:53:35 | 2024-10-31T06:01:45 | 2024-10-31T06:01:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-odboqdkv0f | Did Taiwan help Israel use pagers to attack Hezbollah? | By the end of 2024, will the New York Times report that Taiwanese intelligence services or authorities knew about the attack in advance and took any action to assist that they would not have taken absent this knowledge?
I will not bet on this question.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbol... | 2024-09-17T18:47:26 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-03T02:07:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xb0c451j5e | Will Sweepstakes betting be available in European Union by April 1st 2025? | Resolves Yes if it is possible to trade in Sweepstakes markets and redeem payouts for cash in similiar manner in which it is available to US citizens on date of resolution in any European Union country by April 1st 2025. | 2024-09-17T15:43:20 | 2025-03-03T17:19:57 | 2025-03-03T17:19:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zfpc71benu | Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic in October? | Resolves EDT. A storm that forms in September counts as long as it is a major anytime in October. Closes Sep 30 | 2024-09-17T14:14:09 | 2024-09-30T23:59:00 | 2024-10-05T10:02:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rmsxvqrgb4 | Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election if he loses the 2024 election? | ꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1eov6m2/mmw_if_djt_loses_in_current_election_he_will_be/
Re... | 2024-09-17T11:12:58 | 2025-02-14T17:08:07 | 2025-02-14T17:08:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pwbtx5562k | Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-17T09:27:36 | 2024-09-29T14:00:30 | 2024-09-29T14:00:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-icotel6eaq | Will Trump win the 2024 Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-17T09:00:50 | 2024-11-06T14:08:11 | 2024-11-06T14:08:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4xous5n6v9 | Were there explosives in the Pager devices that blew up in Lebanon? | YES if explosives were added during manufacturing/assembly/distribution
NO if they somehow made the regular batteries explode
still NO if the batteries or other components were modified compared to standard for those devices but there were no explosives added | 2024-09-17T07:35:18 | 2024-09-20T04:53:44 | 2024-09-20T04:53:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3w8c8irwmp | If ATACMS/Stormshadow are used for "deep strikes", will Putin strike/invade a NATO country? | Putin has threated retaliate if US/UK long range weapons are used for "deep strikes" in Russia, this is a simple yes no. | 2024-09-16T19:41:03 | 2024-10-16T23:59:00 | 2024-10-17T18:35:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q8czst7opy | Will it snow in Denver, Colorado before Halloween this year? | Everyone says it always snows before Halloween in Denver. Will it be so in 2024?
Does not count if it snows on Halloween day. | 2024-09-16T12:02:07 | 2024-10-30T22:59:00 | 2024-10-31T07:55:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ygo0gaxbbi | Will there be an attempt to assassinate either Vance or Walz before the next inauguration? | The attempt must be serious, which may be a subjective call but is likely to be straightforward. Headlines calling something an assassination attempt will qualify, for example. Simply carrying a gun at a rally will not qualify, but setting up to use it will. For example, both the Crooks and Routh incidents would qualif... | 2024-09-16T11:58:53 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-21T21:10:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8tlw7loimh | Will there be another credible assassination attempt on Trump, Vance, Harris, Walz or RFK Jr before the election? | There is broad consensus that the Sept 15th "incident" on the West Palm Beach golf course was a second assassination attempt against Trump.
Biden is calling for more security for his former opponent.
https://deepnewz.com/florida/biden-calls-more-secret-service-resources-after-second-trump-assassination-west
[image]Wh... | 2024-09-16T10:01:01 | 2024-11-05T12:45:22 | 2024-11-05T12:45:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-goql3ggk6b | Will Donald Trump "truths" something positive about Taylor Swift before Election Day? | This market resolves to my judgement. I’ll be lenient and limp in my interpretation. For example, a compliment like "she’s a good businesswoman," "I like her music," or "Swift has a big influence," even in a negative context and if he adds "but she hasn't a sense for politics," would resolve this market as YES, even i... | 2024-09-16T07:52:36 | 2024-11-05T21:00:00 | 2024-11-06T02:45:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zrlj08qeq6 | Will Ryan Wesley Routh be alive in one week? | Been seeing some conspiracies, so I’m curious.
Resolves based on reporting of reputable sources. Resolves NO if it’s reported that he is dead and that he died before End of Day Sunday ET. Resolves YES otherwise (Monday morning when I wake up probably)
If it’s unclear, I may at my discretion leave the market closed an... | 2024-09-15T19:16:46 | 2024-09-22T20:59:00 | 2024-09-23T03:53:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-piap8xqsiu | 3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump? | Definition:
A "3rd assassination attempt" is any act intended to cause the death of Donald Trump after the first documented attempt.
Criteria:
Confirmed Attempt: Must be recognized by at least two credible news sources (e.g., major newspapers, international agencies, or official government statements) and identified ... | 2024-09-15T18:40:42 | 2025-01-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T11:19:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9twng5o1c3 | Will there be a third assassination attempt on Trump before Election Day? | This market resolves to YES if there's a third assassination attempt on Former President Trump before Election Day.
In case the assassination attempt happens between Nov 4th and Nov 5th this will resolve based on the timezone where it happened. | 2024-09-15T16:38:10 | 2024-11-05T08:59:24 | 2024-11-05T08:59:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k09mwak9xb | Will there be a serious assassination attempt against Harris? | Will there be a serious assassination attempt against Harris before the election?
'Serious assassination attempt': Assassination attempt that prompts major political opponents to release statements expressing that they are glad she is safe.
Market for Trump: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-there-be-another-se... | 2024-09-15T15:16:45 | 2024-11-05T14:59:00 | 2024-11-05T15:38:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-etnj6gvyo2 | Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump? | After the July assassination attempt and the September Trump International Golf Club shooting, will there be another serious assassination attempt before the election?
'Serious assassination attempt': Assassination attempt that prompts major political opponents to release statements expressing that they are glad he is... | 2024-09-15T14:21:24 | 2024-11-05T14:59:00 | 2024-11-05T15:37:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y6109wohrb | Will the attempted Trump assassin’s politics turn out to be broadly left-of-center? | A bizarre amalgam is some apparently right and some apparently left positions resolves “no.” I will not participate to maintain objectivity. Resolves “no” if we have no clear answer within a month.
If his politics seem to have shifted, I will go with what appears to have been the most recent (last few years) version.... | 2024-09-15T14:18:51 | 2024-10-15T20:59:00 | 2024-10-16T02:28:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vgqt39qdgq | Were any shots fired at Donald Trump today? (According to USSS, FBI, or local Law Enforcement) | Context
Resolves YES if the Secret Service, FBI, or Local Law Enforcement confirm before October 1st, 2024 that a firearm was discharged with the intent to hit Donald Trump today on Sunday, September 15th. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2024-09-15T13:10:31 | 2024-09-17T09:32:41 | 2024-09-17T09:32:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-su7iy54gs5 | By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model? | By March 31, 2025, will an open-source AI model—with weights available for commercial use and requiring attribution similar to Meta’s Llama—be released that outperforms OpenAI’s new o1-preview model on established benchmarks?
1. Time Frame: deadline as the end of the first quarter in 2025 (March 31, 2025).
2. Criteri... | 2024-09-14T19:15:15 | 2024-11-27T13:11:15 | 2024-11-27T13:11:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eyjf48ib65 | Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 29th? | As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Trump leads Kamala in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any singl... | 2024-09-14T14:04:54 | 2024-09-29T20:59:00 | 2024-10-06T08:16:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1nm2lip5hu | Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd? | As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Trump leads Kamala in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any singl... | 2024-09-14T14:01:27 | 2024-09-22T20:59:00 | 2024-09-23T11:22:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-83qt5j1yyf | Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd? | As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Kamala leads Trump in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any singl... | 2024-09-14T13:54:43 | 2024-09-21T07:08:26 | 2024-09-21T07:08:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qv0936k6ph | Will Donald Trump win both the popular vote and the Electoral College? | Resolves YES if Trump wins the popular vote and EC in the 2024 US Presidential election and NO in all other cases. | 2024-09-14T13:41:32 | 2024-11-07T09:41:55 | 2024-11-07T09:41:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5w94vzbem | Will there be widely trusted evidence of migrants to the US eating a single cat or dog in the last 4 years? | Before the election. A community note visible for 3 hours affirming it would do.
Any first gen immigrant, anywhere in the US and doesn't even have to be a pet. | 2024-09-14T06:22:09 | 2024-11-13T21:56:05 | 2024-11-13T21:56:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3iaqblkgq3 | Will Joe Biden express regret about dropping out before the end of his term [video evidence]? | Will there be video evidence strongly implying that Joe Biden regrets dropping out of the presidential race, before the end of his term?
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
Biden says it was a mistake to drop out
If nothing like this comes out, resolves... | 2024-09-14T06:02:48 | 2025-01-10T20:54:34 | 2025-01-18T10:18:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e2q1xpu3tt | Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College? | Resolves YES if Harris wins the popular vote in the upcoming US Presidential election, but loses the EC. Resolves NO in all other cases including her dropping out etc Resolution source is AP | 2024-09-14T03:31:15 | 2024-11-06T20:21:35 | 2024-11-06T20:21:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-90dh7u66lh | Will OpenAI's o1 / 🍓 reach #1 on LMSys on October 1st? | OpenAI released its o1 model to much fanfare.
https://deepnewz.com/ai/openai-unveils-o1-ai-model-advanced-reasoning-fact-checking-phd-level
[image]LMSys has already announced that these models will be scored on LMSys and will soon appear on leaderboards
[image]The current LMSys leaderboard is headed by GPT-4o-08-08,... | 2024-09-13T08:59:06 | 2024-10-02T09:22:03 | 2024-10-02T09:22:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6sydjduf9b | Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election? | It should be possible to access the markets legally from within the US.
"Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count.
https://eventtrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php
ForecastEx went live a few months ago bu... | 2024-09-13T07:35:21 | 2024-10-11T10:31:33 | 2024-10-11T10:31:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ceptit2tdx | Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024? | As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:
spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.
I wonder if Anthropic is already wor... | 2024-09-12T22:51:16 | 2024-12-31T13:15:39 | 2024-12-31T13:15:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-498invtg96 | Will Kamala Harris Announce “No Tax on Overtime”? | Here we go again?
Deadline is Nov 5 2024. | 2024-09-12T19:30:58 | 2024-11-05T10:58:55 | 2024-11-05T10:58:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6szf3uewcu | Did ABC rig the debate for Harris? | According to Twitter pundits, a reported ABC whistleblower is claiming that ABC rigged the debate for Harris, including giving the Harris campaign sample questions “essentially the same” as the debate and only fact-checking Trump. Will this be confirmed by Election Day?
https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1834303917208... | 2024-09-12T16:02:31 | 2024-11-05T20:56:21 | 2024-11-05T20:56:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yjlbpfj6t3 | Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024? | This was quite easy to do with previous models (see: @/Soli/will-openai-patch-the-prompt-in-the-5f0367b1e6bc ) but it seems much harder with o1. I wonder if anyone would manage to do it before end of the year.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on:
Confirmation from the ... | 2024-09-12T14:35:26 | 2024-12-15T22:40:49 | 2024-12-15T22:40:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-md62kas6og | Will a non-swing state flip in the US presidential elections in 2024? | Using The Cook Political Report's classification, retrieved 2024-Sep-12, the following states are in tossup/swing-state territory:
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pensylvannia
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada
Will any state not on the above list unexpectedly flip in the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Districts such a... | 2024-09-12T11:19:16 | 2024-11-06T15:20:24 | 2024-11-06T15:20:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
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