id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-7crbztfikm
|
Will the moderators fact check a candidate in real time at the 2024 Vice Presidential Debate?
|
The CNN Presidential debate in 2024 had no fact-checking, while the ABC News debate saw its moderators aggressively fact-check Donald Trump. Will the moderators of the Vice Presidential debate on October 1 fact-check any of the candidates?
This market resolves to YES if the moderators correct one of the candidates and state or imply that a statement is false while the debate is LIVE, on-air. If the debate is cacelled, the market will resolve to N/A. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
|
2024-09-28T13:24:58
|
2024-10-02T04:12:54
|
2024-10-02T04:12:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6f0zm01a3s
|
Will the Republicans control the US Senate after the 2024 election?
|
This question resolves after the Associated Press projects which party will control the United States Senate following the 2024 US general election and all relevant runoff/special elections.
This question resolves YES if the Republican Party will be in control, or NO otherwise. This question will wait to resolve until 48 hours after the senate majority has been called by the AP, to ensure that the call is not retracted.
In a 50-50 tie, this will depend on the party of the Vice President after the presidential race is determined by a consensus of credible reporting.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, this question will wait for those to resolve.
|
2024-09-28T13:07:57
|
2024-11-05T21:28:09
|
2024-11-05T21:28:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b6b8o2g7tm
|
Will the Republicans control the US House after the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-28T12:48:02
|
2024-11-16T11:53:56
|
2024-11-18T06:01:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i2mm73jgb3
|
Someone sweeps seven swing states?
|
Will a candidate in the upcoming POTUS election win all seven swing states?
Swing states for the purposes of this market are the same as the ones currently on Manifold's election dashboard: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Even if Manifold decides to change the dashboard, these same seven states will be used to resolve this question.
[image]The question closes the day before the election, and it will be resolved as soon as results are known.
|
2024-09-27T19:45:56
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-08T04:20:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5qo3fykn3
|
Bitcoin $72K in October 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $72,000 USD at any point in October 2024, according to the data on blockchain.info. If it does not reach $72,000 during October 2024, it will resolve to "No."
|
2024-09-27T17:39:48
|
2024-10-29T08:44:52
|
2024-10-29T08:44:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vyoppkebe7
|
Bitcoin above $65000 on October 25?
|
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) is at or above $65,000 USD at any point on October 25, according to the data on blockchain.info. If the price does not reach $65,000 on that day, it will resolve to "No."
|
2024-09-27T17:36:13
|
2024-10-24T23:59:00
|
2024-10-25T04:05:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-38fnzviqe3
|
Will Kamala Harris lose NC but win a different Trump 2020 state?
|
Resolves YES if Kamala Harris loses North Carolina, but wins a different state that Donald Trump won in 2020.
|
2024-09-27T14:09:23
|
2024-11-06T16:12:33
|
2024-11-06T16:12:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wzl5sb9tda
|
Was Hassan Nasrallah killed today (9/27/24)?
|
Will resolve if/when death is reported by New York Times.
[image]
|
2024-09-27T11:02:47
|
2024-09-28T05:41:33
|
2024-09-28T05:41:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xe4uknd0b2
|
Will Kamala Harris hold a gun before election day?
|
Apparently Momala is a gun gal. Will a picture of Kamala Harris holding a gun be released before election day?
The photo can’t be AI enhanced (will be relying on reputable US media if in dispute), but doesn’t necessarily need to have been captured after market creation. Kamala must have the gun in her hands, for this to count. Standing next to a gun will not count, though sporting a holstered gun, on her person, will Resolve YES.
Also, the Trump side of things:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-trump-be-photographed-holding)
|
2024-09-26T09:18:44
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-11-05T03:58:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4l535of0dj
|
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-26T00:20:24
|
2024-11-07T23:22:49
|
2024-11-07T23:22:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k5w5rpledt
|
OpenAI to become a for-profit by EOY?
|
https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/
SAN FRANCISCO, Sept 25 (Reuters) - ChatGPT-maker OpenAI is working on a plan to restructure its core business into a for-profit benefit corporation that will no longer be controlled by its non-profit board, people familiar with the matter told Reuters, in a move that will make the company more attractive to investors.
Resolves YES if OpenAI's core business both
is no longer controlled by a non-profit board
is a for-profit corporation
Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T18:39:32
|
2024-12-31T02:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nfgxbflelg
|
Will Eric Adams resign or announce he will resign as mayor of NYC before the end of October?
|
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/09/25/nyregion/eric-adams-indicted-corruption
Will resolve YES if Eric Adams issues a statement saying he will step down, even if the day he step's down is after October 31st.
|
2024-09-25T18:14:13
|
2024-10-31T19:49:28
|
2024-10-31T19:49:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-80te29e9gh
|
Will Trump win North Carolina in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of North Carolina in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in North Carolina, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T17:50:09
|
2024-11-05T20:27:47
|
2024-11-05T20:27:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1vtqd9j0mn
|
Will Trump win Wisconsin in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Wisconsin in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Wisconsin, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T17:49:15
|
2024-11-06T02:55:23
|
2024-11-06T02:55:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h07wvp9vss
|
Will Trump win Michigan in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Michigan the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Michigan, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T17:48:22
|
2024-11-07T23:22:59
|
2024-11-07T23:22:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dse5g7e0xg
|
Will both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump flip a state?
|
Does not include split electoral votes by congressional districts, only the statewide vote
If either is not the nominee on election day, the replacement will be substituted.
|
2024-09-25T16:56:37
|
2024-11-06T11:39:00
|
2024-11-06T11:39:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-snf255a9l6
|
Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-25T15:49:46
|
2024-11-07T23:16:27
|
2024-11-07T23:16:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1u8gdhl386
|
Will Trump win Nevada in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Nevada in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Nevada, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T15:44:36
|
2024-11-07T23:16:37
|
2024-11-07T23:16:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2i4y8488ez
|
Will Trump win Arizona in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Arizona in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Arizona, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican Party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T15:41:59
|
2024-11-07T23:21:22
|
2024-11-07T23:21:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j9iag2qcos
|
Will Trump win Georgia in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Georgia in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Georgia, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T15:41:02
|
2024-11-05T22:08:01
|
2024-11-05T22:08:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t7fuc67b72
|
Will Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the state.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the presidential election in Pennsylvania, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. Once both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not both agree on the winner of the state, this market will resolve based on the US Congress' certification of the election in January 2025, resolving YES if a Republican party candidate is certified as the winner or NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-25T15:20:35
|
2024-11-05T23:30:31
|
2024-11-05T23:30:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4nlpu019vj
|
Will Trump publicly mention AGI or Superintelligence before 2025?
|
https://x.com/IvankaTrump/status/1839002887600370145
[image]Resolves based on public reporting.
|
2024-09-25T11:32:48
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:36:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i9wkw83obt
|
Will Donald Trump flee the United States before January 20, 2025?
|
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump is confirmed to have left the United States with no intent to return before January 20, 2025.
|
2024-09-25T10:24:52
|
2025-01-20T21:59:00
|
2025-01-21T05:25:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ajoazne9l9
|
Will November 2024 pass with no missile alarms in Haifa city?
|
following the beginning of operation "Northern Arrows" and the escalation in Israel-Hezbbolah war, there is an increased concern that this might be a prolonged situation, and Hezbullah will continue to launch missles\rockets\UAV to Israel.
In order to quantify the de-escaltion (that hopefully will follow), I have set a measured quantity of 0 alarms in Haifa City (and the Krayot area) in November.
This Question will Resolve NO, if there will be at least one alarm in the Haifa area, in November, according to Israel Homefront:
https://www.oref.org.il/eng/alerts-history
Otherwise, this question resolves YES
|
2024-09-25T01:36:55
|
2024-11-03T05:18:58
|
2024-11-03T05:18:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7uivuecibg
|
Will an injunction or executive action or executive order be issued that stops the east coast port strike in 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if there is a court issues an injunction that halts the east coast port strike, as described in the Twitter thread linked by Ryan Peterson below, or if another executive action or executive order is used by the administration to forcibly halt the strike.
Resolves to NO if the strike resolves or is prevented without such action, or lasts through the end of 2024.
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own.
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true
[link preview]
|
2024-09-24T16:06:03
|
2024-11-07T06:36:05
|
2024-11-07T06:36:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tn0w9skib1
|
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least three weeks in 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least three full weeks prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own.
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
Also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas?play=true (1 week instead of 3, otherwise identical)
|
2024-09-24T15:50:53
|
2024-10-04T06:24:03
|
2024-10-04T06:24:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gf383e376q
|
Will there be a major strike at east coast USA ports lasting at least one week in 2024?
|
Resolves to YES if there is a strike that substantially disrupts our east coast port capacity for at least one full week prior to the end of 2024 (e.g. a lot of the ports are largely shut down for a minimum of 7 full days before reopening).
Resolves to NO if this does not happen, or it is clear it will not happen (e.g. the strike is resolved fully, so we won't wait until EOY).
Ryan Peterson's judgment will be used if he makes a clear statement either way, if not I will use my own.
See: https://twitter.com/typesfast/status/1838670975610888411
also see: https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-there-be-a-major-strike-at-eas-mclujjllm1?play=true (same market but 3 weeks instead of 1)
|
2024-09-24T15:49:48
|
2024-10-04T06:23:52
|
2024-10-04T06:23:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p0bs34x9sc
|
Will Sean "Diddy" Combs be alive on Jan 1st 2025?
|
As we know Diddy has been arrested, and is held in Federal custody in Brooklyn, denied bail.
According to the news, he's been refusing his meals, concerned about poisoning.
https://deepnewz.com/search?q=Diddy
[image]It is rumored that Diddy has dirt on a lot of people. Will he be Epstein'd?
The market will resolve according to confirmed media reports. If there is NOT a widespread reporting about Diddy's survival, we will assume he is default alive.
If there are conflicting reports, we may extend the market for a few days until there is clear resolution. But this is very unlikely.
Will Diddy ring in the new year? In prison, or otherwise.
|
2024-09-24T12:37:07
|
2025-01-02T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T17:51:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ii557o8cda
|
Will a major AI model be released on Sept 25 ?
|
Sept 25 2024, aoe
inspired from https://manifold.markets/jim/will-a-major-ai-model-upgrade-be-re?play=true
This resolves YES if OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, or Meta release a major new model. Additionally, if any other lab launches a new model that clearly signals "a big day for developers," it also counts.
Qualifying major models include:
Models with a new name distinct from previous versions (e.g., Claude Opus 3.5 or GPT-4.5).
Existing models that incorporate enhanced reasoning systems, such as OpenAI's o1.
|
2024-09-24T12:07:19
|
2024-09-25T16:32:31
|
2024-09-25T16:32:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bdacv78rms
|
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election get more than 280 electoral votes?
|
Resolves as soon as the final state is called by AP or NYTimes
|
2024-09-23T22:20:19
|
2024-11-06T19:57:17
|
2024-11-06T19:57:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xkh366wt3b
|
Will a major AI model be released on Sept 24?
|
If OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Google, or Meta release a major new model this resolves YES. Also, if another lab releases a new model whose release clearly constitutes "a big day for developers", that counts too.
Things that would count as major new models are:
models with a different name to an existing one (e.g. Claude Opus 3.5 or GPT-4.5)
existing models but with added reasoning systems like OpenAI's o1.
[image][image]
|
2024-09-23T20:03:59
|
2024-09-25T00:59:00
|
2024-09-25T04:58:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-olfmdallt3
|
Will Truth Social shares (DJT) fall below $10 by the end of September?
|
Truth social floated on the stock market in March, and the share price has fallen from a high of $79 to under $15:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
Truth Social had been losing money and has revenues far lower than they would need to even justify this new, far lower share price. Do shareholders believe that there is some real value in the company? Or are they so invested in Donald Trump that they will buy up these shares to “own the Libs”?
Will the share price fall below $10 by the end of trading on 30th September?
If the share price falls below $10.00 according to this page (not including out-of-hours trading) this market will resolve to YES. If the final trading day of September ends without this happening, the market will resolve to NO.
Edit for clarity - If it’s trading below $10 at any point or if the daily low is shown as being below $10, this resolves to YES. It does not need to stay below $10.
|
2024-09-23T10:31:14
|
2024-09-30T15:59:00
|
2024-10-01T06:50:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2t8ttriwlk
|
F1 - Will Daniel Ricciardo be replaced for the next Grand Prix? (US Grand Prix - 20th October)
|
Daniel Ricciardo was once considered to be one of the best drivers in F1, but he has been underperforming for a few years and he has had a poor 2024.
There have been a lot of suggestions that Singapore was his last race in F1.
Will he be replaced for the next Grand Prix?
If RB announce that they are replacing him with another driver for the next race, this will resolve to YES.
If RB enter another driver for qualifying or the Grand Prix, this resolves to YES.
If RB enters Ricciardo into the US Grand Prix and he takes part in qualifying or the race or they only enter Tsunoda and they leave Ricciardo’s seat free, this resolves to NO.
|
2024-09-23T07:00:19
|
2024-09-26T09:53:50
|
2024-09-26T09:53:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8ug4dhm32f
|
Will the far-right german party, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), get the most seats in german parliament (2025)?
|
Resolves YES if the AfD party gets the most seats compared to any party after the 2025 national election.
Resolves NO if there is any other party that gets more seats than the AfD. CDU/CSU will be counted as one party.
Edit: This market will apply to the expected earlier election in 2025.
|
2024-09-23T04:21:51
|
2025-03-01T08:06:23
|
2025-03-01T08:06:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g9d1esy1vp
|
Will Magnus be taken off his throne by the end of 2024 FIDE classic rating?
|
This post explores the possibility of Ding Liren or Gukesh dethroning Magnus Carlsen from his throne by the end of 2024. As it stands, Magnus currently holds the highest FIDE Classic rating, but will he be able to maintain this position amid emerging talents and fierce competition?
Specifically, can players like Ding Liren or Gukesh not only challenge Magnus but also surpass him to claim the number one spot?
As we look ahead, it will be interesting to see if any other players can rise to the occasion and take down Magnus in the rankings. What are your thoughts on the potential shifts in the FIDE ratings?
|
2024-09-23T03:06:46
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-07T08:25:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zpaelmtxnr
|
Bitcoin above $60K on Jan 1, 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: The market resolves "Yes" if Bitcoin is at or above $60,000 USD at any time on January 1, 2025, based on blockchain.info. If it stays below $60K, it resolves "No."
Resolution Date & Time: January 1, 2025, at 23:59 PST.
|
2024-09-22T23:57:25
|
2025-01-01T00:42:38
|
2025-01-01T00:42:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dizvte8tdr
|
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Georgia defeat Alabama?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, September 28, 2024 - 6:30 PM CDT
Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, Alabama
|
2024-09-22T18:35:12
|
2024-09-28T20:33:49
|
2024-09-28T20:33:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ail7d2gk0g
|
Donald Trump wins a non-swing Harris state?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the state-wide popular vote of any blue state on the map below.
[image]State by state election forecasts:
https://manifold.markets/election
https://polymarket.com/elections
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Also see: @/JTX/will-kamala-harris-win-any-nonswing
|
2024-09-22T16:58:24
|
2024-11-05T12:00:00
|
2024-11-06T02:26:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d7uhb6o979
|
Kamala Harris wins a non-swing Trump state?
|
Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins the state-wide popular vote of any red state on the map below.
[image]State by state election forecasts:
https://manifold.markets/election
https://polymarket.com/elections
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Also see: @/JTX/will-donald-trump-win-any-nonswing
|
2024-09-22T16:48:24
|
2024-11-05T19:28:40
|
2024-11-05T21:13:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zdqdqyfw23
|
Will there be an attack ad that criticizes Donald Trump for his statement about eating dogs and cats by election day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-22T14:22:45
|
2024-09-28T09:48:28
|
2024-09-28T09:48:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q18ep2hnm7
|
Will Joe Biden visit Africa in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Joe Biden visits Africa in 2024(!)
|
2024-09-22T11:08:25
|
2024-12-04T11:41:39
|
2024-12-04T11:41:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rvru7ta6vv
|
Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
|
As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:
spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.
I wonder if any of the big labs is already working on something that gets released this year. Even if it’s invite-only, we need to see evidence that the model exists and that someone outside the big lab’s network of family and friends has access to it. The model should be able to reason for different timeframes based on the complexity of a problem before coming up with a response.
@/Soli/will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u
@/Soli/will-anthropic-release-a-model-that
@/Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea
|
2024-09-22T07:06:23
|
2024-12-20T06:36:31
|
2024-12-20T06:36:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6gx532gqjy
|
Will GME reach $50 before the end of October 2024?
|
GameStop GME stock closed at $21.85 on September 20th 2024
|
2024-09-21T23:31:18
|
2024-10-31T17:03:07
|
2024-10-31T17:03:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xmfoc3qvak
|
Will the "Nintendo Switch 2" (or other successor) be revealed in October 2024?
|
Rumors of the Nintendo Switch successor ("Nintendo Switch 2") reveal have been swirling lately among both gaming media and fans. While the focus was originally on September, it's possible the reveal could occur in October too. The original Switch was revealed in October 2016 for release in March 2017.
If you'd like to bet on September instead, use my other market here. If you'd like to bet on November or December, I recommend this other market here. I won't create markets for those months as I personally believe next year is much more likely if there is no reveal by end of October.
For clarity, this market will resolve to YES if key information like an official photo or name of the next-generation system is revealed by Nintendo during October 2024. (inclusive of both US and Japan time zones) The mere existence of a successor system was already confirmed earlier this year, so a 'reveal' would need to be some piece of additional new and significant information building on what is already known.
|
2024-09-21T14:31:30
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2024-11-01T00:38:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2l0fxt84e0
|
Will 42 or fewer total games be played during the 2024 MLB Postseason?
|
Under the new format, the four series in the Wild Card are best of three, leading to a range of 8 to 12 games.
The four Division series are best of five, leading to a range of 12 to 20 games.
The two League Championship Series and the World Series are both best of seven, leading to a range of 8 to 14 games for the LCS and 4 to 7 games for the World Series.
The minimum total games, provided every series is a sweep, is 32 and the maximum total, given every series goes the distance, is 53.
For the record, the total number of games played under the current playoff format from previous years.
2023 - 41 total games, two full series (both LCS) and six sweeps
2022 - 40 total games, one full series (Division) and five sweeps
Given the increased parity among the playoff-eligible teams remaining this late in the season, there is more potential for longer series this October.
EDIT: I have changed the parameters to include the total number of 42, since the median between 32 and 53 is 42.5.
|
2024-09-21T08:28:06
|
2024-10-30T05:39:26
|
2024-10-30T05:39:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y6kqkdeee7
|
Will Qualcomm buy a part of Intel?
|
Resolves YES if Qualcomm and Intel agree to a deal where Qualcomm buys a part of Intel.
This resolves on agreement only. Doesn't need to pass FTC scrutiny or anything.
Real estate only deal doesn't count.
https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/qualcomm-approached-intel-about-a-takeover-in-recent-days-fa114f9d
|
2024-09-21T05:31:03
|
2025-01-22T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T06:11:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y2ll7om6v5
|
Will the UK accept an EU proposal for a youth mobility scheme (in 2024)?
|
I wont be betting.
Context for the market: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/sep/20/eu-youth-mobility-proposal-uk
Changes must involve the right to live and work in other countries, not only to study. Other policy changes e.g. dropping of international tuition fees do not count if they dont also involve some form of Youth mobility scheme. The announcement of a return to a more universal freedom of movement which isn't youth specific will also resolve Yes.
Resolves when reputable British media cover that the UK has agreed to new policies which reduce the restriction on the freedom of movement for British/EU nationals between eachothers borders.
|
2024-09-20T12:40:57
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-05T23:50:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a1gaokvvc8
|
Will someone try to hurt Barron Trump at NYU this year?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-20T10:11:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:26:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b51q22v67g
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Thanksgiving dinner?
|
YES - Jimmy Carter is still alive after Dolphins-Packers kicks off
|
2024-09-20T07:27:11
|
2024-11-28T20:59:00
|
2024-11-28T21:28:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w16wkmgd7r
|
Will Intel Corporation (INTC) stock recover above $40 USD this year ?
|
Resolves to YES, if at any time during 2024, the INTC stock is traded at $40 USD or above. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
|
2024-09-20T07:24:56
|
2024-12-31T13:00:00
|
2024-12-31T13:11:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b8ozzbfkqc
|
One month from today Will Kamala be above Donald Trump on Polymarket?
|
resolves 50 if tie
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
|
2024-09-20T00:24:12
|
2024-10-20T20:59:00
|
2024-10-20T21:06:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vevcxf6kuv
|
Will Anne Wojcicki remain CEO of 23andMe through the end of 2024?
|
Anne Wojcicki is fielding enormous controversy over her plans to take 23andMe private, after years of declining share prices and unclear strategic vision for the company.
Resolves YES if she is the CEO continuously for the rest of the year. If at any point she is not the CEO, resolves NO.
|
2024-09-19T18:37:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T11:05:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w19yqvmgr7
|
Will October suprise be a land invasion of Lebanon by Israel?
|
Will Israel launch a invasion of Lebanon by the end of October 2024?
Resolves yes if so.
|
2024-09-19T15:45:35
|
2024-10-01T02:30:02
|
2024-10-01T02:30:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ecyfuqljx8
|
Will Kamala Harris flip a state?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-19T11:12:45
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T23:14:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wu0mzxhtjz
|
Will Hezbollah's exploding pagers be shown to have explosive material added beyond what is in a normal battery?
|
I have seen speculation that the explosions could have been caused by lithium batteries alone, or that they may have been implanted with other explosives.
Resolves "no" if the batteries were modified but no unusual material was added
|
2024-09-19T10:26:19
|
2024-10-07T07:59:59
|
2024-10-07T07:59:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g8lzim0xx9
|
Will Mark Robinson drop out of the NC Governor race before Election Day?
|
[tweet]
|
2024-09-19T10:04:23
|
2024-11-05T04:15:54
|
2024-11-05T04:15:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7llbgclaav
|
[short fuse] Will Mark Robinson drop out of the NC Governor race before September 21st, 1 PM ET?
|
Context: 'Major drama' as MAGA candidate cancels events amid potentially explosive story: reporter
Resolves YES if Mark Robinson drops out (e.g. announces he will be suspending his campaign for governor) before question close at 1 PM ET on Saturday, September 21st. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-19T10:02:11
|
2024-09-21T10:02:00
|
2024-09-21T14:40:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-30oddprhzg
|
Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-18T17:27:21
|
2024-11-06T14:10:25
|
2024-11-06T14:10:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-67ioearfr8
|
Will Guantanamo Bay be closed by the time Joe Biden's term ends?
|
https://www.judiciary.senate.gov/press/releases/durbin-leads-17-senators-in-urging-president-biden-to-act-swiftly-to-close-the-guantanamo-bay-detention-facility
Resolves NO if anyone is imprisoned in Guantanamo Bay and Joe Biden is not President.
Resolves YES if the facility has no assigned prisoners.
|
2024-09-18T16:36:15
|
2025-01-20T11:44:54
|
2025-01-20T11:44:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tucfxr8cv3
|
Will Kamala Harris lead Donald Trump in the upcoming NYT / Siena poll of Pennsylvania?
|
This question resolves based on the head-to-head margin in the upcoming NYT/Siena poll of Pennsylvania.
It resolves YES if the upcoming NYT/Siena poll shows Harris leading in the head-to-head margin, or resolves NO if Trump is leading.
This question resolves 50% if the NYT shows the head-to-head margin as exactly tied. This includes if one candidate was ahead by a fraction of a percent, but the NYT rounds to the nearest percent. However, if the headline describes them as "neck-and-neck" but Harris is 1% ahead, this question will still resolve to YES.
If no NYT/Siena poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania is released before October 1st, 2024 then this question will resolve to 50%.
Context:
[tweet]
|
2024-09-18T10:40:10
|
2024-09-19T04:14:20
|
2024-09-19T04:14:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jtcbs646h1
|
Will Taylor Swift release a new song by December 31, 2024 that references recent political events?
|
꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fjjdz5/mmw_taylor_swift_will_drop_a_new_song/
[image]Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Taylor Swift releases a new song by December 31, 2024
The song's lyrics contain clear references to at least two of the following:
a) A recent article written about her
b) Elon Musk's tweet regarding her political endorsement
c) Donald Trump's tweet expressing dislike for her
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Taylor Swift does not release a new song by December 31, 2024
Swift releases a new song, but it does not contain clear references to at least two of the specified events
Resolution will be based on:
Official releases on Taylor Swift's music platforms
Lyrics analysis by reputable music publications
Statements from Swift or her representatives confirming the song's content
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
Swift releases a song that is ambiguous in its references, requiring official clarification that is not provided by the resolution date
|
2024-09-18T05:42:48
|
2025-01-18T23:45:37
|
2025-01-18T23:45:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u3hlsz7ypw
|
Will Ivanka Trump release a tell-all book about Donald Trump before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
|
꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1fjheua/mmw_ivanka_will_release_a_tell_all_book_before/
[image]Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Ivanka Trump publishes a book before November 5, 2024 (Election Day) that:
a) Provides significant new information about Donald Trump's personal life or presidency
b) Contains critical or negative portrayals of Donald Trump
c) Describes Ivanka's childhood experiences with her father in a negative light
The book must be officially released and available for purchase by the public
The market will resolve as "No" if:
No such book is published by Ivanka Trump before November 5, 2024
Ivanka Trump releases a book that does not meet the criteria outlined above
Resolution will be based on:
Official announcements from publishers
Reputable news sources reporting on the book's content
Public availability of the book for purchase
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
Ivanka Trump passes away before the resolution date
Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on November 5, 2024 (Election Day), or when a qualifying book is officially released, whichever comes first.Additional Notes:
Ghostwritten books authorized by Ivanka Trump will be considered valid for this market
The financial success or sales figures of the book are not relevant to the resolution of this market
|
2024-09-18T05:37:44
|
2024-11-05T08:57:07
|
2024-11-05T08:57:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8x3isbazl6
|
Will another state sponsored “pager detonation” like event take place by the end of 2024?
|
Any attack that uses comparable tactics to the Mossad exploding pager attack of 9/17.
|
2024-09-17T23:50:36
|
2024-09-18T08:36:45
|
2024-09-18T08:36:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8g2hx01abi
|
Will Shohei Ohtani pitch for the Dodgers during the 2024 postseason?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-17T23:39:35
|
2024-10-31T09:51:53
|
2024-10-31T09:51:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pzijgsdptp
|
Another large coordinated "exploding devices" attack before 2026?
|
I don't think I've ever heard of an attack like the recent Lebanon pager explosions.
This resolves YES if there is any attack anywhere in the world involving:
At least 100 devices
Rigged, hacked or otherwise deliberately made to cause injury or death
The devices appear to be peaceful devices like phones or pagers, not weapons
Part of a coordinated attack by one group against another (i.e. 100 isolated murder attempts don't count)
Before Jan 1st 2026 (market closes later in case details take a while to be confirmed)
I'm also curious if this has ever happened before the Lebanon pager explosions, and if there's a name for this kind of attack. Let me know in the comments.
|
2024-09-17T19:28:02
|
2024-09-18T17:50:02
|
2024-09-18T17:50:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-67dyzdbf5s
|
Will Shohei Ohtani hit more than 5 home runs in the 2024 postseason?
|
Counting all games after the regular season, including Wild Card and its Play-In.
More than 5 means, 5 = NO
Also bet on:
@/mattyb/2024-mlb-world-series-mega-market-a
@/mattyb/how-many-home-runs-will-shohei-ohta-38ynaal8uz
@/mattyb/if-the-dodgers-win-the-2024-world-s
@/mattyb/which-team-will-win-the-2024-mlb-wo
@/mattyb/which-player-will-hit-more-home-run
|
2024-09-17T18:53:35
|
2024-10-31T06:01:45
|
2024-10-31T06:01:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-odboqdkv0f
|
Did Taiwan help Israel use pagers to attack Hezbollah?
|
By the end of 2024, will the New York Times report that Taiwanese intelligence services or authorities knew about the attack in advance and took any action to assist that they would not have taken absent this knowledge?
I will not bet on this question.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/world/middleeast/israel-hezbollah-pagers-explosives.html
[image]
|
2024-09-17T18:47:26
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-03T02:07:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xb0c451j5e
|
Will Sweepstakes betting be available in European Union by April 1st 2025?
|
Resolves Yes if it is possible to trade in Sweepstakes markets and redeem payouts for cash in similiar manner in which it is available to US citizens on date of resolution in any European Union country by April 1st 2025.
|
2024-09-17T15:43:20
|
2025-03-03T17:19:57
|
2025-03-03T17:19:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zfpc71benu
|
Will there be a major hurricane in the Atlantic in October?
|
Resolves EDT. A storm that forms in September counts as long as it is a major anytime in October. Closes Sep 30
|
2024-09-17T14:14:09
|
2024-09-30T23:59:00
|
2024-10-05T10:02:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rmsxvqrgb4
|
Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election if he loses the 2024 election?
|
꧁∙·▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫꧁ MarkMyWords Series ꧂▫ₒₒ▫ᵒᴼᵒ▫ₒₒ▫·∙꧂
The Mark My Words series takes actionable and popular posts from the Mark My Words subreddit and turns them into a prediction market. Hope you enjoy the format!
https://www.reddit.com/r/MarkMyWords/comments/1eov6m2/mmw_if_djt_loses_in_current_election_he_will_be/
Resolution Criteria:
The market will resolve as "Yes" if:
Donald Trump loses the 2024 U.S. Presidential election AND
Donald Trump is officially nominated as the Republican candidate for the 2028 U.S. Presidential election at the Republican National Convention
The market will resolve as "No" if:
Donald Trump wins the 2024 U.S. Presidential election OR
Donald Trump loses the 2024 U.S. Presidential election but is not nominated as the Republican candidate for 2028
The market will resolve as "Invalid" if:
Donald Trump is deceased or medically incapacitated before the 2028 Republican National Convention
The 2028 Republican National Convention does not take place as expected
Resolution Source:
Official results of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election as certified by the Electoral College and Congress, and the official nomination announcement from the 2028 Republican National Convention.Closing Date:
This market will close for trading on the day of the 2028 Republican National Convention, or December 31, 2028, whichever comes first.
|
2024-09-17T11:12:58
|
2025-02-14T17:08:07
|
2025-02-14T17:08:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pwbtx5562k
|
Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-17T09:27:36
|
2024-09-29T14:00:30
|
2024-09-29T14:00:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-icotel6eaq
|
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-17T09:00:50
|
2024-11-06T14:08:11
|
2024-11-06T14:08:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4xous5n6v9
|
Were there explosives in the Pager devices that blew up in Lebanon?
|
YES if explosives were added during manufacturing/assembly/distribution
NO if they somehow made the regular batteries explode
still NO if the batteries or other components were modified compared to standard for those devices but there were no explosives added
|
2024-09-17T07:35:18
|
2024-09-20T04:53:44
|
2024-09-20T04:53:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3w8c8irwmp
|
If ATACMS/Stormshadow are used for "deep strikes", will Putin strike/invade a NATO country?
|
Putin has threated retaliate if US/UK long range weapons are used for "deep strikes" in Russia, this is a simple yes no.
|
2024-09-16T19:41:03
|
2024-10-16T23:59:00
|
2024-10-17T18:35:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q8czst7opy
|
Will it snow in Denver, Colorado before Halloween this year?
|
Everyone says it always snows before Halloween in Denver. Will it be so in 2024?
Does not count if it snows on Halloween day.
|
2024-09-16T12:02:07
|
2024-10-30T22:59:00
|
2024-10-31T07:55:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ygo0gaxbbi
|
Will there be an attempt to assassinate either Vance or Walz before the next inauguration?
|
The attempt must be serious, which may be a subjective call but is likely to be straightforward. Headlines calling something an assassination attempt will qualify, for example. Simply carrying a gun at a rally will not qualify, but setting up to use it will. For example, both the Crooks and Routh incidents would qualify.
It does not matter if Vance or Walz are candidates, former candidates, or elected at the time, or for what office.
|
2024-09-16T11:58:53
|
2025-01-20T21:59:00
|
2025-01-21T21:10:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8tlw7loimh
|
Will there be another credible assassination attempt on Trump, Vance, Harris, Walz or RFK Jr before the election?
|
There is broad consensus that the Sept 15th "incident" on the West Palm Beach golf course was a second assassination attempt against Trump.
Biden is calling for more security for his former opponent.
https://deepnewz.com/florida/biden-calls-more-secret-service-resources-after-second-trump-assassination-west
[image]While this market is mostly about Trump, we include any of the major candidates for President or VP
Trump, Vance
Harris, Walz
RFJ Jr -- not Nicole Shanahan
We are basically asking -- will there be a credible, serious attempt on one of them before or on the day of the election. While they are under Secret Service protection.
A few caveats.
First, if you are uncomfortable with judgement calls please just don't bet this market. Similarly if you are a sore loser (you tend to argue any time you lose mana). Just don't be a part of this one please.
Most cases will be very clear but some judgement may be required. I'll both adjudicate and bet this market. If you don't like that, just please don't get involved.
Secondly, what constitutes a credible assassination attempt?
The "second Trump attempt" would be a good example. The attacker need not shoot at the President. If there is reasonable cause to think he would have done so, the authorities stopped him, and the Secret Service / FBI say they are treating it like an attempted assassination.
What if he was caught in the parking lot earlier, with two duffle bags of guns? Depends what else was found, and what the FBI says. If he had a suicide note saying he's about to go shoot at Trump, I would say that counts. If he could credibly argue that the guns were unrelated to Trump... a Biden/Harris bumper sticker would not be enough evidence of an assassination attempt.
If he were arrested 50 miles away it is very unlikely this would count, although it's possible if say he planted remotely detonated explosives on the golf course, or something like that.
If he was illegally flying a drone to scout the golf course, that would not count.
|
2024-09-16T10:01:01
|
2024-11-05T12:45:22
|
2024-11-05T12:45:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-goql3ggk6b
|
Will Donald Trump "truths" something positive about Taylor Swift before Election Day?
|
This market resolves to my judgement. I’ll be lenient and limp in my interpretation. For example, a compliment like "she’s a good businesswoman," "I like her music," or "Swift has a big influence," even in a negative context and if he adds "but she hasn't a sense for politics," would resolve this market as YES, even if the post is deleted later. However, a lie like "Swift wants you to vote for Trump" would not resolve this market.
It must be in text form. Posts on X or comments in interviews that he reposts on Truth Social without typing the significant part don’t count. Replies and "retruths" do not count.
This market resolves NO if he doesn’t post anything relevant by November 5th at 00:00 ET (military format).
I will not bet in this market.
|
2024-09-16T07:52:36
|
2024-11-05T21:00:00
|
2024-11-06T02:45:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zrlj08qeq6
|
Will Ryan Wesley Routh be alive in one week?
|
Been seeing some conspiracies, so I’m curious.
Resolves based on reporting of reputable sources. Resolves NO if it’s reported that he is dead and that he died before End of Day Sunday ET. Resolves YES otherwise (Monday morning when I wake up probably)
If it’s unclear, I may at my discretion leave the market closed and unresolved until it becomes clear whether he was alive or dead EoD ET September 22. The main circumstance I’m imagining invoking this is if it’s reported say at 2AM Monday 23rd that he was found dead, but his precise time of death is unknown.
|
2024-09-15T19:16:46
|
2024-09-22T20:59:00
|
2024-09-23T03:53:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-piap8xqsiu
|
3rd assassination attempt on Donald Trump?
|
Definition:
A "3rd assassination attempt" is any act intended to cause the death of Donald Trump after the first documented attempt.
Criteria:
Confirmed Attempt: Must be recognized by at least two credible news sources (e.g., major newspapers, international agencies, or official government statements) and identified as an assassination attempt by law enforcement or government authorities.
Target: Donald Trump must be the explicit target while alive, with the attempt clearly directed at him.
Time Frame: Any events from the market opening date until January 31, 2025.
Documentation: Evidence must be from credible sources such as police reports, official statements, or court documents. Rumors or unverified reports do not qualify.
Nature: Must involve violence or a weapon (e.g., firearms, explosives, poisoning) with the intent to kill. Non-violent threats or intercepted plots do not qualify.
Multiple Incidents: Each event is evaluated independently; the market resolves upon the 3rd confirmed attempt.
Exclusions: Incidents not clearly targeting Trump personally, accidental or unintentional acts, false alarms, or debunked events.
Final Resolution: The market resolves on the first confirmed 3rd assassination attempt meeting all criteria. If none by the closing date, it resolves to "No."
Sources: Accepted sources include major national newspapers (e.g., The New York Times, The Washington Post), international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP), and official government statements.
The current count is 2. So any other attempt would resolve to YES.
|
2024-09-15T18:40:42
|
2025-01-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T11:19:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9twng5o1c3
|
Will there be a third assassination attempt on Trump before Election Day?
|
This market resolves to YES if there's a third assassination attempt on Former President Trump before Election Day.
In case the assassination attempt happens between Nov 4th and Nov 5th this will resolve based on the timezone where it happened.
|
2024-09-15T16:38:10
|
2024-11-05T08:59:24
|
2024-11-05T08:59:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k09mwak9xb
|
Will there be a serious assassination attempt against Harris?
|
Will there be a serious assassination attempt against Harris before the election?
'Serious assassination attempt': Assassination attempt that prompts major political opponents to release statements expressing that they are glad she is safe.
Market for Trump: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-there-be-another-serious-assas-2p8np9t2iy
|
2024-09-15T15:16:45
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-05T15:38:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-etnj6gvyo2
|
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump?
|
After the July assassination attempt and the September Trump International Golf Club shooting, will there be another serious assassination attempt before the election?
'Serious assassination attempt': Assassination attempt that prompts major political opponents to release statements expressing that they are glad he is safe.
Market for Harris: https://manifold.markets/Simon74fe/will-there-be-a-serious-assassinati
|
2024-09-15T14:21:24
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-05T15:37:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y6109wohrb
|
Will the attempted Trump assassin’s politics turn out to be broadly left-of-center?
|
A bizarre amalgam is some apparently right and some apparently left positions resolves “no.” I will not participate to maintain objectivity. Resolves “no” if we have no clear answer within a month.
If his politics seem to have shifted, I will go with what appears to have been the most recent (last few years) version.
|
2024-09-15T14:18:51
|
2024-10-15T20:59:00
|
2024-10-16T02:28:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vgqt39qdgq
|
Were any shots fired at Donald Trump today? (According to USSS, FBI, or local Law Enforcement)
|
Context
Resolves YES if the Secret Service, FBI, or Local Law Enforcement confirm before October 1st, 2024 that a firearm was discharged with the intent to hit Donald Trump today on Sunday, September 15th. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-15T13:10:31
|
2024-09-17T09:32:41
|
2024-09-17T09:32:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-su7iy54gs5
|
By the end of Q1 2025 will an open source model beat OpenAI’s o1 model?
|
By March 31, 2025, will an open-source AI model—with weights available for commercial use and requiring attribution similar to Meta’s Llama—be released that outperforms OpenAI’s new o1-preview model on established benchmarks?
1. Time Frame: deadline as the end of the first quarter in 2025 (March 31, 2025).
2. Criteria for the Open-Source Model:
- Availability: Weights must be available for commercial use.
- Attribution and license: must resemble what Meta and others have previously done in the past.
3. Performance Benchmark: The model must outperform OpenAI’s new o1-preview model on established benchmarks (at least 2 major ones) that it currently leads on.
|
2024-09-14T19:15:15
|
2024-11-27T13:11:15
|
2024-11-27T13:11:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eyjf48ib65
|
Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 29th?
|
As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Trump leads Kamala in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any single day after September 14th and before Sunday, September 29th, 2024 (Eastern Time).
This question otherwise resolves NO after both models have been updated for each date before the 29th. Ties do not count as a lead.
Resolution will not include any lead due to a bugs/mistake which is corrected by the next day's updates. Any potential YES resolution will wait for the next day's updates in both models. If both models still show Trump as having been in the lead on the previous day, this question resolves YES.
If there are deliberate changes to either model which update the forecast for a previous day in the resolution range (such as a change to a model's convention bounce adjustment) this can count for this question's resolution. Resolution will wait for the next day's model updates after any such change to ensure it was not a glitch which is corrected.
The addition of alternative forecasts, such as a "polls-plus" or "nowcast" forecast by either site, will not count for this question's resolution.
In the event that either or both forecasts are indefinitely unavailable on September 29th such as when they were suspended after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, this question will resolve to NO by default.
|
2024-09-14T14:04:54
|
2024-09-29T20:59:00
|
2024-10-06T08:16:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1nm2lip5hu
|
Will Trump lead Kamala in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
|
As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Trump leads Kamala in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any single day after September 14th and before Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 (Eastern Time).
This question otherwise resolves NO after both models have been updated for each date before the 22nd. Ties do not count as a lead.
Resolution will not include any lead due to a bugs/mistake which is corrected by the next day's updates. Any potential YES resolution will wait for the next day's updates in both models. If both models still show Trump as having been in the lead on the previous day, this question resolves YES.
If there are deliberate changes to either model which update the forecast for a previous day in the resolution range (such as a change to a model's convention bounce adjustment) this can count for this question's resolution. Resolution will wait for the next day's model updates after any such change to ensure it was not a glitch which is corrected.
The addition of alternative forecasts, such as a "polls-plus" or "nowcast" forecast by either site, will not count for this question's resolution.
In the event that either or both forecasts are indefinitely unavailable on September 22nd, such as when they were suspended after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, this question will resolve to NO by default.
|
2024-09-14T14:01:27
|
2024-09-22T20:59:00
|
2024-09-23T11:22:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-83qt5j1yyf
|
Will Kamala lead Trump in both 538 and Nate Silver's forecasts on any day before Sunday, September 22nd?
|
As of September 14th, 538's election forecast predicts that Kamala Harris is more likely than Donald Trump to win the 2024 election while Nate Silver's election forecast predicts that Trump is more likely to win.
This question will resolve YES if Kamala leads Trump in both of these probabilistic forecasts on any single day after September 14th and before Sunday, September 22nd, 2024 (Eastern Time).
This question otherwise resolves NO after both models have been updated for each date before the 22nd. Ties do not count as a lead.
Resolution will not include any lead due to a bugs/mistake which is corrected by the next day's updates. Any potential YES resolution will wait for the next day's updates in both models. If both models still show Harris as having been in the lead on the previous day, this question resolves YES.
If there are deliberate changes to either model which update the forecast for a previous day in the resolution range (such as a change to a model's convention bounce adjustment) this can count for this question's resolution. Resolution will wait for the next day's model updates after any such change to ensure it was not a glitch which is corrected.
The addition of alternative forecasts, such as a "polls-plus" or "nowcast" forecast by either site, will not count for this question's resolution.
In the event that either or both forecasts are indefinitely unavailable on September 22nd, such as when they were suspended after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, this question will resolve to NO by default.
|
2024-09-14T13:54:43
|
2024-09-21T07:08:26
|
2024-09-21T07:08:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qv0936k6ph
|
Will Donald Trump win both the popular vote and the Electoral College?
|
Resolves YES if Trump wins the popular vote and EC in the 2024 US Presidential election and NO in all other cases.
|
2024-09-14T13:41:32
|
2024-11-07T09:41:55
|
2024-11-07T09:41:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m5w94vzbem
|
Will there be widely trusted evidence of migrants to the US eating a single cat or dog in the last 4 years?
|
Before the election. A community note visible for 3 hours affirming it would do.
Any first gen immigrant, anywhere in the US and doesn't even have to be a pet.
|
2024-09-14T06:22:09
|
2024-11-13T21:56:05
|
2024-11-13T21:56:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3iaqblkgq3
|
Will Joe Biden express regret about dropping out before the end of his term [video evidence]?
|
Will there be video evidence strongly implying that Joe Biden regrets dropping out of the presidential race, before the end of his term?
Some things that would make this resolve YES:
Biden says he would have won had he been the nominee
Biden says it was a mistake to drop out
If nothing like this comes out, resolves NO at the end of Biden's term.
Things that wouldn't count (not direct enough):
Biden says top Democrats shouldn't have put pressure on him to drop out
Biden says he wasn't too old to run
I will not bet here.
|
2024-09-14T06:02:48
|
2025-01-10T20:54:34
|
2025-01-18T10:18:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e2q1xpu3tt
|
Will Kamala Harris win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College?
|
Resolves YES if Harris wins the popular vote in the upcoming US Presidential election, but loses the EC. Resolves NO in all other cases including her dropping out etc Resolution source is AP
|
2024-09-14T03:31:15
|
2024-11-06T20:21:35
|
2024-11-06T20:21:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-90dh7u66lh
|
Will OpenAI's o1 / 🍓 reach #1 on LMSys on October 1st?
|
OpenAI released its o1 model to much fanfare.
https://deepnewz.com/ai/openai-unveils-o1-ai-model-advanced-reasoning-fact-checking-phd-level
[image]LMSys has already announced that these models will be scored on LMSys and will soon appear on leaderboards
[image]The current LMSys leaderboard is headed by GPT-4o-08-08, followed by Gemini and Grok.
https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard
[image]Will OpenAI's o1 get to #1 on this leaderboard by October 1st?
Several caveats since LMSys is weird...
We will look whatever is posted on October 1st
If an update happens that day, we will count it [so resolves October 2nd]
We use Eastern Time not "updated on" time on LMSys site -- which will often be 7+ days behind....
We will use any OpenAI o1 style model and take the best result
This will probably be "o1-preview" but if they post a better model that will also count
If no o1 model is released by October 1st we will wait until one is posted and extend the market.
As usual, statistical ties count! The market is "will o1 (or any best OpenAI model) be first or tied for first on LMSys?
But in most scenarios we will resolve this on October 2nd.
We also have a market betting on the model's ELO.
https://manifold.markets/Moscow25/what-elo-will-openais-o1-model-get
|
2024-09-13T08:59:06
|
2024-10-02T09:22:03
|
2024-10-02T09:22:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6sydjduf9b
|
Will Interactive Brokers (IBKR) have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
|
It should be possible to access the markets legally from within the US.
"Who will win the 2024 US presidential election?", "Who will be POTUS on 2025/1/21?" and similar would count. Markets about Congress wouldn't count.
https://eventtrader.interactivebrokers.com/en/home.php
ForecastEx went live a few months ago but hasn’t listed presidential election markets yet as of Sep 13, 2024.
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-earnings-dow-sp500-nasdaq-live-08-01-2024/card/exclusive-prediction-market-goes-live-on-interactive-brokers-SqJ7SWnarkwSLOTJctWu
EDIT Sept 14, 2024: the market should be continuously available in the US for ≥1 week (not counting technical issues like a server outage)". (This will keep the same criteria as the Kalshi market).
Related to:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JavierPrieto/will-kalshi-have-a-realmoney-market)
|
2024-09-13T07:35:21
|
2024-10-11T10:31:33
|
2024-10-11T10:31:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ceptit2tdx
|
Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
|
As most of you already know openai released a new model called o1 capable of reasoning. In OpenAI's words the model can:
spend more time thinking before they respond. They can reason through complex tasks and solve harder problems than previous models in science, coding, and math.
I wonder if Anthropic is already working on something that gets released this year. Even if it’s invite-only, we need to see evidence that the model exists and that someone outside Anthropic’s network of family and friends has access to it. The model should be able to reason for different timeframes based on the complexity of a problem before coming up with a response.
@/Soli/will-a-finetuned-opensource-model-u
@/Soli/which-of-these-companies-will-relea
@/Soli/will-anthropic-google-xai-or-meta-r
|
2024-09-12T22:51:16
|
2024-12-31T13:15:39
|
2024-12-31T13:15:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-498invtg96
|
Will Kamala Harris Announce “No Tax on Overtime”?
|
Here we go again?
Deadline is Nov 5 2024.
|
2024-09-12T19:30:58
|
2024-11-05T10:58:55
|
2024-11-05T10:58:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6szf3uewcu
|
Did ABC rig the debate for Harris?
|
According to Twitter pundits, a reported ABC whistleblower is claiming that ABC rigged the debate for Harris, including giving the Harris campaign sample questions “essentially the same” as the debate and only fact-checking Trump. Will this be confirmed by Election Day?
https://x.com/LeadingReport/status/1834303917208842424
For “confirming”, this is subjective (so I will not bet in the market), but I’m looking for things like:
Multiple other sources, particularly non-anonymous sources
Confirmation from ABC or the Harris campaign
Leaked documents/emails/phone recordings
|
2024-09-12T16:02:31
|
2024-11-05T20:56:21
|
2024-11-05T20:56:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yjlbpfj6t3
|
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
|
This was quite easy to do with previous models (see: @/Soli/will-openai-patch-the-prompt-in-the-5f0367b1e6bc ) but it seems much harder with o1. I wonder if anyone would manage to do it before end of the year.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be based on:
Confirmation from the Twitter account that posted the claimed system message
If no confirmation is received, resolution will be based on creator's judgment of the validity of the posted system message
|
2024-09-12T14:35:26
|
2024-12-15T22:40:49
|
2024-12-15T22:40:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-md62kas6og
|
Will a non-swing state flip in the US presidential elections in 2024?
|
Using The Cook Political Report's classification, retrieved 2024-Sep-12, the following states are in tossup/swing-state territory:
Wisconsin
Michigan
Pensylvannia
North Carolina
Georgia
Arizona
Nevada
Will any state not on the above list unexpectedly flip in the 2024 US Presidential Elections? Districts such as Nebraska 2nd and Maine 2nd do not count
For reference, the same report classifies these states as "Likely Dem"
Maine
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia
And the following ones as "Likely Rep"
Florida
Texas
Question will be resolved whenever we have all non-swing states consensually called
For fairness, I won't trade this market
|
2024-09-12T11:19:16
|
2024-11-06T15:20:24
|
2024-11-06T15:20:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.