id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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| close_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ytjitpo1eg
|
Will one candidate win at least 5/7 tossup states?
|
Tossup states: NV, AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI
Resolves YES if one candidate wins at least 5 of these states, NO if both candidates win at least 3 states
Resolved once AP/ Fox News/NYT all make calls in enough states to satisfy the market, or from officially certified state results
|
2024-09-12T11:14:59
|
2024-11-06T19:55:29
|
2024-11-06T19:55:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d1t4k3nz3t
|
Will Trump win the 2024 Election?
|
This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based on the Associated Press and Fox News decision desks. If both the AP and Fox declare a winner, this question will be resolved 48 hours later if those calls are not retracted.
If the AP/Fox do not declare a winner, such as if there is a tie in the electoral college, this question will resolve YES if any candidate of the Republican Party is designated as the next president by the United States Congress before the end of January 31st, 2025 (ET), or will resolve NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-12T06:58:27
|
2024-11-06T14:08:43
|
2024-11-06T14:08:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8xd9saklr8
|
Will Kamala Harris win all six swing states?
|
Resolves "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins every "swing" state in the 2024 US Presidential Election or "No" otherwise.
For the purposes of this market, the following states are considered as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
The resolution source for this market is the AP, Fox News, and New York Times. If all three sources haven’t called the race in the listed states for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
|
2024-09-12T04:49:14
|
2024-11-06T00:40:18
|
2024-11-06T00:40:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3l00o2wegl
|
Is the October suprise a US backed war with Iran?
|
Resolves yes if Israel (with US Backing) is at war with Iran(not a proxy war) by the end of October 2024.
Defensive weaponry is on the table, however US support in the form of offensive weaponry, troops, intelligence, machinery and all fall under US Backing.
|
2024-09-12T00:46:10
|
2024-10-31T11:29:00
|
2024-10-31T23:25:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ql5bj5ylif
|
Will Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump on Fox News?
|
Market closes at the end of October (since it's an obvious NO if it hasn't happened by then) or on the day scheduled for a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Fox News.
Resolves YES if the candidates appear for 1 second or more on a debate stage hosted by Fox and moderated by Fox News anchors.
Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-11T12:21:47
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2024-11-01T04:58:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cbxy0rbol4
|
Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate again before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-11T07:56:39
|
2024-11-02T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T19:53:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t3tzbc6z59
|
Will Apple have another product release event in 2024?
|
Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES.
|
2024-09-11T04:28:40
|
2024-12-31T15:16:04
|
2024-12-31T15:16:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4be8r1648q
|
Will Harris and Trump have a second debate?
|
The Kamala Harris campaign soon after the first ABC debate, asked the Trump campaign for a second debate, will Donald Trump agree to a second debate?
Resolves yes if there is a second Kamala Vs Donald debate.
|
2024-09-11T02:10:03
|
2024-11-05T10:29:00
|
2024-11-05T18:46:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2t9wcu2q3j
|
Trump to pass Harris?
|
Resolves YES if Trump is listed as more likely to win than Harris at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Trump is listed above Harris.
|
2024-09-10T23:32:04
|
2024-10-07T07:47:15
|
2024-10-07T07:47:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wlnc8ovaid
|
Will Donald Trump step down as Republican candidate in 2024 and name JD Vance the Republican candidate for president?
|
After Trump’s poor debate performance will he step down and name JD Vance the Republican presidential candidate before November 1, 2024. This is a scenario identical to Biden dropping out and Harris being named the Democratic nominee.
|
2024-09-10T20:44:39
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:45:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-liq654lkhu
|
Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-10T20:31:45
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T21:01:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ic21c1vl16
|
Will Travis Kelce endorse Trump before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-10T20:31:33
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T21:01:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zbe3d4jtp6
|
Will Russia end it’s war with Ukraine before the next US presidential inauguration?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-10T19:05:13
|
2025-01-20T08:19:55
|
2025-01-20T08:19:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vnhl1341h5
|
Will Pennsylvania decide the election [read description]?
|
Pennsylvania is generally considered to be by far the most important state in this election cycle. Will Pennsylvania decide the 2024 POTUS election?
Winner of election loses Pennsylvania -> resolves NO
Winner of election wins Pennsylvania but the electoral college margin is large enough that Pennsylvania didn’t matter (i.e won 289+ EV's) -> NO
Winner of election wins Pennsylvania and would have lost if Pennsylvania went the other way (i.e won < 289 EV's) -> YES
Closes the day before the election, resolves as soon as results are known. Faithless electors don't count.
|
2024-09-10T13:32:27
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:43:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-17yzwywwac
|
Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands at their first debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-10T12:12:58
|
2024-09-11T20:59:00
|
2024-09-12T11:25:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zn6o111say
|
Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on October 31st?
|
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning. NOT THE POLLING AVERAGE
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available.
|
2024-09-10T09:46:23
|
2024-10-28T20:59:00
|
2024-10-31T09:54:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-40jg5uza1v
|
Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 27?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-10T01:34:59
|
2024-09-27T03:16:58
|
2024-09-27T03:16:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fxo5w3aptq
|
Will Kamala's win probability on Polymarket go up during the debate?
|
Formula:
A = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour before the debate starts.
B = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour after the debate ends.
Resolves YES if B > A. Tie resolves NO.
The debate starts at 9 p.m ET. The debate "ends" when either candidate utters the last word on stage.
N/A if the debate doesn't happen. "average of the odds" has "odds" refer to the midpoint between the best buy and the best sell. all equal units of time are weighted equally (time weighted average)
|
2024-09-09T16:37:43
|
2024-09-10T20:59:00
|
2024-09-10T21:10:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ycpxvp5w4r
|
Will Trump call Kamala a communist during the debate?
|
Has to happen during the debate, associated words like "commie" or "Comrade Harris" or something count as well. To resolve YES, he must be referring to Kamala herself, not a policy or associated person.
|
2024-09-09T10:39:02
|
2024-09-10T18:00:00
|
2024-09-12T07:00:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rzupx7lgck
|
Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-08T15:55:50
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:14:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3xjpq9lls1
|
Will Nate Silver's model have a higher probability of Kamala victory than electionbettingodds.com on election day?
|
Will compare nate's final model release on election day to EBO at that time. in the event of some weird bugs or ambiguities i'll turn the market over to mods
|
2024-09-07T13:04:58
|
2024-11-04T22:38:27
|
2024-11-04T22:38:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vul52nvqkx
|
Will Wikileaks post a new leak before the election?
|
https://wikileaks.org/-Leaks-.html
The last one is from Dec 2018
|
2024-09-07T08:49:10
|
2024-11-09T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T21:00:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f02ll0k2vf
|
Does a Trump presidential victory imply Joe Biden will pardon Hunter?
|
Resolves Yes if Trump wins and Joe Biden pardons Hunter Biden (or commutes his sentence), or if Trump loses. Resolves No if Trump wins and there is no pardon or commuted sentence.
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to:
@/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
and
@/MaximLott/will-joe-biden-pardon-hunter-biden-014exmuzui
|
2024-09-07T08:45:41
|
2024-12-01T17:08:36
|
2024-12-01T17:08:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ffdd0mkdsp
|
Will Astro Bot win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot
|
2024-09-07T04:22:51
|
2024-12-12T20:03:41
|
2024-12-12T20:03:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9g8kfe8iv5
|
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr become his first HHS secretary?
|
Resolves YES if Robert F Kennedy Jr. becomes Trump's first HHS secretary, N/A if Trump doesn't win, and NO otherwise.
|
2024-09-06T13:36:05
|
2025-02-13T14:29:29
|
2025-02-13T14:29:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jatexbwtir
|
In the next presidential debate, would Kamala Harris stand on the right-side podium?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-06T11:12:50
|
2024-09-11T10:52:10
|
2024-09-11T10:52:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r90iriz45e
|
Will Barnier still be Prime Minister of France on October 15th 2024 ?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-06T10:49:07
|
2024-10-16T20:59:00
|
2024-10-17T05:01:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3bgx8fyzcb
|
Government shuts down this year?
|
If the government is shut down at any 10:00 AM ET by 2024, then the market resolves to YES.
The current status of government opening is available here.
The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down between market creation and December 31st, 2024 at 10:00 AM ET due to a lapse in appropriations. Notices of a lapse in appropriations resulting in emergency furloughs or impacted government operations will lead to a resolution of YES. Notices of office closures due to holidays or inclement weather will not lead to a resolution of YES.
Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While, the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end all be all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair. I will give notice before I do this.
Note: I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-09-06T02:55:00
|
2024-12-31T07:00:00
|
2024-12-31T11:52:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tu24hur69l
|
Trump to Admit 2020 Defeat? Presidential debate
|
If there is no Debate between Trump and Harris before Election this Market resolves to N/A.
If the question is not asked this market resolves to N/A
|
2024-09-05T14:52:52
|
2024-09-10T19:50:03
|
2024-09-10T19:50:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ha8siwsis8
|
Will Michel Barnier be the prime minister of France on Jan 1st 2025?
|
Resolves NO if he has resigned but hasn't been replaced yet (i.e. he is "démissionnaire").
|
2024-09-05T04:43:29
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T22:59:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u73ve2zddr
|
Will the Nintendo Switch successor be revealed in September 2024?
|
Multiple media sources have indicated that the Nintendo Switch successor ("Nintendo Switch 2") could be revealed during this month. (see embeds below) On the other hand, rumours of the successor's reveal have occurred previously with little results.
For clarity, this market will resolve to YES if key information like an official photo or name of the system is revealed by Nintendo during September 2024. The mere existence of a successor system was already confirmed earlier this year, so a 'reveal' would need to be some piece of additional new and significant information building on what is already known.
[tweet][tweet][tweet]
|
2024-09-05T00:44:27
|
2024-09-30T23:59:00
|
2024-10-01T06:24:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nqxer6yxtk
|
Will the Trump Family's crypto project launch a token before election day?
|
This market resolves YES if the Trump Family's decentralized finance project World Liberty Financial is known to have launched a crypto token before November 5th, 2024 (Eastern Time).
NFTs such as Trump's crypto trading cards would not count.
However, a governance token like what is speculated on in this reporting would be sufficient to resolve this market, even if the token is non-transferable.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible financial reporting such as Bloomberg, CNBC, and the Wall Street Journal.
|
2024-09-04T08:16:14
|
2024-10-15T11:22:18
|
2024-10-15T11:22:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0adficjjzt
|
Will RFK Jr be removed from the ballot in North Carolina?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-04T05:29:18
|
2024-10-15T09:53:01
|
2024-10-15T09:53:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lxic627kyr
|
Will the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl again in 2025?
|
The Kansas City Chiefs won the past 2 Super Bowls. Will they play in the Super Bowl again in 2025?
|
2024-09-03T15:57:53
|
2025-01-27T09:12:22
|
2025-01-27T09:12:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4e9qxbirdp
|
Will Kamala Harris be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024?
|
The episode itself must be released before November 5th, 2024, not merely recorded before that date.
|
2024-09-03T13:52:41
|
2024-11-05T03:21:22
|
2024-11-05T03:21:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vp0ckl70df
|
Will JD Vance and Tim Walz both participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS News on October 1st?
|
This question resolves YES if both JD Vance and Tim Walz participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS news on October 1st, 2024.
If either candidate does not participate in such an event on October 1st (Eastern Time) this question resolves NO.
If both candidates participate in the debate but one leaves before the scheduled end time, this question will still resolve YES. A town hall or forum would not count for the resolution of this question, only an event which is presented as a vice presidential debate by CBS News.
|
2024-09-03T12:31:16
|
2024-10-01T18:46:42
|
2024-10-01T18:46:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bio46x096h
|
Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC News on September 10th?
|
This question resolves YES if both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC News on September 10th, 2024.
If either candidate does not participate in such an event on September 10th (Eastern Time) this question resolves NO.
If both candidates participate in the debate but one leaves before the scheduled end time, this question will still resolve YES. A town hall or forum would not count for the resolution of this question, only an event which is presented as a presidential debate by ABC News.
|
2024-09-03T12:09:50
|
2024-09-11T08:18:10
|
2024-09-11T08:18:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qg8fhtoft3
|
Will November 2024 be the hottest November ever? [NCEI]
|
Will November 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled November in the Global table at this link.
|
2024-09-03T08:32:17
|
2024-12-12T07:34:55
|
2024-12-12T07:36:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5e39tbzv9o
|
Will October 2024 be the hottest October ever? [NCEI]
|
Will October 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled October in the Global table at this link.
|
2024-09-03T08:30:01
|
2024-11-13T07:58:24
|
2024-11-13T07:58:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lij5ryoh0o
|
Will Taylor Swift attend the Chiefs season opener?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-02T18:25:02
|
2024-09-05T17:43:20
|
2024-09-05T17:43:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-utu8gpywq9
|
Will Kamala Harris poll below +1.5 nationally in Nate Silver's polling average 2 weeks from now?
|
This market will close on September 15th and resolve based on the number posted here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
under the most recent update as of 8:59 pm pacific time, September 16th. (i.e., this market closes a day before it resolves)
Nate Silver's election model is currently interpreting polling numbers as being 2 percentage points more favorable towards Harris than they should be, under the assumption that Harris is receiving a temporary "convention bounce" to her polls. If this assumption holds up, Harris' polling average will drop over the coming weeks. Currently, she is at +3.5 nationally, so will she be below +1.5 in two weeks?
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-09-02T16:50:12
|
2024-09-15T23:59:00
|
2024-09-16T12:00:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-46tp72r31e
|
POTUS: Will the winner lose the popular vote?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-02T15:43:44
|
2024-11-07T10:59:00
|
2024-11-07T19:42:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jvbhseaorj
|
Will a higher % of Americans pick the winning candidate in 2024 than in 2020? [ READ DESCRIPTION ]
|
According to Statista, 24.56% of the US population voted for Biden in the 2020 US general election, the highest percentage ever of Americans who actually voted AND chose the candidate that won.
In 2016, the similar statistic for Americans who voted for Trump was 19.42%.
Will more Americans, as a percentage of total US population, pick the winner this time around?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1140011/number-votes-cast-us-presidential-elections/
|
2024-09-02T13:26:05
|
2024-11-20T21:11:03
|
2024-11-20T21:11:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-miyw2eiqvt
|
Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month?
|
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Ukraine takes control of the Kurs Nuclear Power Plant, by the end of September 30, 2024 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
|
2024-09-02T10:04:07
|
2024-09-30T14:59:00
|
2024-09-30T15:16:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b51baypzzv
|
Will the 2024 US Presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win the election?
|
This market resolves to "Yes" if the candidate who wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US Presidential election also wins the overall presidential election. It resolves to "No" if the candidate who wins Pennsylvania does not win the overall election.
Pennsylvania is often considered a key battleground state, and its outcome could be indicative of broader national results. However, this market specifically depends on the winner of Pennsylvania and their success in the overall electoral count.
Key Details:
The market will resolve based on certified election results.
"Winning Pennsylvania" refers to the candidate receiving the majority of Pennsylvania's electoral votes.
"Winning the election" refers to the candidate receiving the majority of the electoral votes nationally.
If Pennsylvania's results are contested or recounted, the resolution will be based on the official final outcome.
|
2024-09-02T09:48:58
|
2024-11-25T13:00:52
|
2024-11-25T13:00:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sceggmblu1
|
Will there be a government shutdown before March 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-02T08:03:14
|
2025-02-28T20:59:00
|
2025-02-28T21:26:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eboda2f7ns
|
Will September 2024 be the hottest September ever? [NCEI]
|
Will September 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Environmental Information update the predicted date for the release of data. The predicted date can be found in the row labeled September in the Global table at this link.
|
2024-09-02T07:50:30
|
2024-10-10T07:59:59
|
2024-10-24T10:24:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n1j87392pg
|
Will Newsom veto SB 1047?
|
Will California Governor Gavin Newsom veto SB 1047? For a baserate, he vetoed 30% of laws last year, and 14% the day before <https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2023/10/gavin-newsom-veto-bills/>
|
2024-09-02T05:13:04
|
2024-09-29T14:11:56
|
2024-09-29T14:11:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vdl3i2frvp
|
Will the 2024 presidential election be a nail-biter throughout? (3-leg parlay, read description)
|
Resolves positive if ALL THREE of the outcomes take place:
Both candidates have 45-55% probability on Election Betting Odds at 12pm EST 11/4/24 (linked market)
CNN does not project a winner before 9am EST 11/6/24, the morning after election day (Example: 2004, 2020)
The winning candidate wins fewer than 300 electoral votes (Example: 2000, 2004)
|
2024-09-01T21:23:22
|
2024-11-04T16:34:02
|
2024-11-04T16:34:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gn2fs6ot7y
|
Will Lex Fridman interview a high ranking Democrat in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a Lex interview is released this year where the guest is 1) a Democrat (or caucusing with Democrats) and 2) a current or past:
presidential nominee
vice presidential nominee
top 3 in a primary election for president
senator
house rep
governor
mayor of a city with population 500k+
cabinet member
state executive official
The name of the Democrat in question must appear in the title of the episode.
Only episodes released September 1st or later count. An announcement of an episode is not enough, resolution will be based on the release date of an episode.
|
2024-09-01T19:54:36
|
2024-10-23T19:15:55
|
2024-10-23T19:15:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dlagqcpk7y
|
Will Manchester United finish 2024 with a positive goal difference in the league?
|
After losing to Liverpool at home, United have a -3 GD. This market resolves to yes if they have a goal difference of at least 1 in the 2024 calendar year portion of 24-25 Premier League season (around half the season).
|
2024-09-01T15:54:30
|
2024-12-30T12:55:11
|
2024-12-30T12:55:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nif5un6g5x
|
Will any of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 return home alive before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if any additional live hostages (after September 1) are rescued, escape, or released from Hamas captivity. If only bodies are recovered, market resolves NO.
Only includes hostages taken by Hamas as part of the October 7 2023 attack. Any hostages taken before or after this date do not count.
Market will resolve at 11:59PM on December 31, 2024.
EDIT: If no hostaged have been rescued, the market will end at 11:59 PM on December 31, 2024. If live hostages are reported rescued, escaped, or released, I will resolve the market after seeing it reported by at least 2 reputable news agencies as confirmed by the IDF.
|
2024-09-01T13:16:36
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T18:08:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vnln0avcby
|
Will Hikaru Nakamura beat Alireza Firouzja in the Speed Chess Championship semifinal?
|
The match will be played on Friday 2PM GMT.
|
2024-09-01T13:10:10
|
2024-09-06T11:02:54
|
2024-09-06T11:02:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d7ian3ntia
|
Will Donald Trump be sentenced to prison in September of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-09-01T09:34:10
|
2024-09-30T20:59:00
|
2024-10-01T16:52:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3u7fdc0tw6
|
Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $69000?
|
End of month California time
|
2024-09-01T08:03:48
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2024-11-01T00:00:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ay2k5fe0j5
|
Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes?
|
I'm defining "decided by" a little weirdly, so please read the description before betting.
Arrange all of the states (+ congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska) from red to blue based on 2024 margin of victory (Trump's % of the vote - Harris' % of the vote). If Trump is the winner, start flipping the closest states (or congressional districts) that Trump won, one by one, until Harris wins the election. How many votes do you have to flip? (If Harris is the winner, do the symmetric thing.)
Example: in the 2004 presidential election, Bush won, and the closest states were Iowa (won by 0.67% or 10,059 votes), New Mexico (0.79% or 5,988 votes), and Ohio (2.11% or 118,601 votes). Flipping IA and NM wouldn't have been enough for Kerry, but flipping those plus OH would have been enough. Thus, the 2004 election was decided by 10059 + 5988 + 118601 = 134648 votes.
(Note that flipping Ohio by itself would have been enough for Kerry to win the election. However, because IA and NM were closer, my definition defines the 2004 election to have been decided by 134648 votes, not 118601.)
If I did the math right, this is how many votes the last six elections were decided by:
[image]So this market would have resolves YES for 2000, 2016, and 2020 and NO for 2004, 2008, and 2012.
(Edit: see also this market, which defines "decided by" a little differently. I didn't notice it at the time of creation.)
|
2024-08-31T16:58:50
|
2024-11-08T11:09:26
|
2024-11-08T11:09:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1kq08lbtdk
|
Will JD Vance release any of his tax returns before election day?
|
James David "JD" Vance has yet to release any of his tax returns at the time of market creation, according to https://www.taxnotes.com/presidential-tax-returns.
There has been a longstanding norm for presidential and vice presidential candidates to voluntarily release their tax returns, in the interests of transparency and openness, and to help voters understand candidates' financial interests.
If JD Vance releases at least one year of previous income tax returns before election day, this market will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
|
2024-08-31T10:59:02
|
2024-11-05T03:25:01
|
2024-11-05T03:25:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7otntqgmc9
|
Will a member of United States congress die in 2025?
|
If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.
House & Senate
|
2024-08-31T09:27:04
|
2025-03-06T13:55:44
|
2025-03-06T13:55:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mhzbvxcbd
|
Will Microsoft acquire Cursor before the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-31T05:11:34
|
2024-12-31T15:54:51
|
2024-12-31T15:54:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-319f5s7ju0
|
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September?
|
end of sept israel time zone
|
2024-08-30T21:03:55
|
2024-09-30T17:30:52
|
2024-09-30T17:30:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-alt2o6br9q
|
Will Kamala Harris publicly admit that she didn't actually work at McDonalds at some point before election day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-30T16:03:48
|
2024-11-05T03:20:59
|
2024-11-05T03:20:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3t7sx026mv
|
Is Putin going to be arrested when visiting Mongolia?
|
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e852r50x7o
If he doesn't visit Mongolia until End of September 2024, this question resolves NA
|
2024-08-30T08:38:01
|
2024-09-03T10:19:32
|
2024-09-03T10:19:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kppht92ynd
|
Will Kamala Harris be president and have a registered Republican in her cabinet within the first 100 days of her term?
|
If Kamala Harris is elected President of the United States, and a registered Republican is nominated to her cabinet or to a cabinet-level position, and that person confirmed by the Senate, all before the end of April 30, 2025, this market will resolve YES.
Otherwise NO.
|
2024-08-30T04:02:45
|
2024-11-09T02:48:24
|
2024-11-09T02:48:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n1leuxaauz
|
Will Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump before leaving office?
|
For any crimes he is currently charged with.
|
2024-08-30T02:38:08
|
2025-01-20T10:21:04
|
2025-01-20T10:21:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wm2xgv0jbm
|
Will any aviation incidents or accidents occur during Portugal’s ground worker strike?
|
“On Monday, the Portuguese Transport Workers’ Union (Sttamp) gave a strike notice for all national airports from “00:00 on August 31 until midnight on September 1, 2024” and disruption to airport services is expected to be significant.
The union warned of “severe constraints” at major aviation hubs, including Lisbon and Porto, but said the effects of the strikes are “currently unpredictable”.
Workers employed by Groundforce Portugal (SPdH) say they will continue to take strike action until “the current salary scales are reviewed” and working conditions improve.
Prospective passengers have been advised to contact airlines such as easyJet, TAP Air Portugal, British Airways, Ryanair, and Wizz Air to confirm their travel plans.
A spokesperson for easyJet said: “As our ground handler in Portugal isn’t impacted by the strike action we are currently planning to operate our schedule as planned but would always advise all customers to check the status of their flights on Flight Tracker at easyJet.com for the latest updates.”
Sttamp said in a statement: “In compliance with its responsibilities to all passengers with trips scheduled for these days who may be affected by this stoppage, Sttamp regrets that it was necessary to reach this point despite having tried in every way to find solutions with the company that would avoid this outcome.
“It will be up to Menzies management to take full responsibility for this strike because at no time did it present any alternative or proposal that could avoid the strike.”
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/portugal-holiday-lisbon-porto-airport-ground-handler-strike-b2602946.html
Resolves no if the strike is canceled.
|
2024-08-29T19:11:05
|
2024-09-02T13:18:19
|
2024-09-02T13:18:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-most4fpj8w
|
Will Kamala Harris sit down for a SOLO interview before Election Day?
|
Will resolve (YES) when it’s reported in the mainstream media that Harris was the subject of a solo interview (TV, Radio, Social Media, Newspaper/Magazine including online publications) and the contents of that interview has been publicly made available. Will resolve (NO) if Harris does not take part in a solo interview before Election Day.
Since there’s some ambiguity to the question I will not trade on this market. An example of this could be if Harris sits down for a 45 minute televised solo interview and then her husband who is standing offstage joins for the last portion of the interview. I will still count this as a solo interview because the overwhelming majority of the interview was conducted solo.
Thank you for participating and remember to trade responsibly.
|
2024-08-29T18:56:54
|
2024-09-09T21:32:51
|
2024-09-09T21:32:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j3g8llmajd
|
Will Harris overtake Trump in Nate Silver's Presidential forecast within the next week?
|
Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.
Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her the lead. This led me to ask when Trump would overtake Harris:
@/SimonGrayson/when-will-trump-overtake-harris-in
Earlier today, Trump overtook Harris off the back of some strong polls in Pennsylvania.
Will Harris take the lead back in the next week (by the time this market closes in exactly a week)?
Or will Trump maintain his lead for the whole week?
Resolution notes:
The primary source of truth for this market is Nate Silver's blog. Some of his content is subscriber-only, but the results of the model can usually be found in other media outlets including Nate Silver's own Twitter feed.
This market only references Silver's model for winning the electoral collage (ie. winning the election) rather than winning the popular vote or getting ahead in the polling average
If Nate Silver stops publishing a Harris vs Trump model for any reason (including one of the candidates withdrawing) before Harris has overtaken Trump and does not bring it back online by the time this market closes, this market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-08-29T12:28:07
|
2024-09-05T12:30:00
|
2024-09-05T14:10:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5jlaeunyp6
|
Will Kamala Harris flip a coin?
|
Resolves YES if she flips a coin in public at any time before the election.
|
2024-08-29T11:11:08
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-05T15:10:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gw9ejfqw12
|
Will Donald Trump call for violence before the next inauguration?
|
Recently Trump has shared calls for his opponents to be subjected to "public military tribunals" and prosecuted for crimes that carry the death penalty (see, e.g., https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870). He has not yet, to my knowledge, directly called for anyone to be lynched, beaten, or otherwise physically attacked. Will he?
This question resolves YES if he calls for physical, extra-legal violence against a specific person or small, discrete group (such as the "J6 Committee" in the post above).
The call must be public, not reported from private conversations. But if he encourages or republishes the reporting in a way that indicates he endorses it, that may count.
Calling for someone to be prosecuted is not enough, even if the penalty upon conviction would be death. Calling for a "public military tribunal" is close, as this would in effect be extra-legal violence, but I think it falls just shy of the line. That may give you some idea about how I would resolve this question.
Obviously this must be a subjective resolution, and of course I will not trade in this market.
|
2024-08-29T08:50:23
|
2025-01-20T21:59:00
|
2025-01-21T21:10:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e1t4jaokgn
|
Will Kamala giggle/laugh during her CNN interview tonight?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-29T08:16:09
|
2024-08-30T20:59:00
|
2024-08-31T04:18:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a4lxhx0c9j
|
Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024?
|
Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, has been placed under formal investigation in France and is barred from leaving the country. He was arrested at Le Bourget airport near Paris on Saturday and released from police custody on Wednesday, but he must remain in France pending further investigation. Durov faces allegations related to facilitating organized crime, drug trafficking, and the distribution of child sexual abuse material on Telegram. He is required to report to a police station twice weekly and has been prohibited from leaving France.
This market will resolve according to parameters outlined in the identical polymarket.
Any further clarifications (that change the description) will be made by me using the comments below and polymarket description changes. I won’t trade in this market.
Currently, the resolution source will be a “consensus of credible reporting” (as it is here).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Pavel Durov has left France for any length of time between August 27, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
In cases where Durov may have exited French airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than France for this market to resolve to "Yes".
If Durov exits French maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Durov left France, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
comment any news or questions you have 💙
|
2024-08-28T21:45:32
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-14T15:27:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w3j1bjihx3
|
Will Mufasa have a bigger opening than Sonic 3? (Domestic)
|
will go by the 'opening' section on boxofficemojo (domestic) https://www.boxofficemojo.com/
[image]
|
2024-08-28T20:55:48
|
2024-12-23T14:22:41
|
2024-12-23T14:22:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-24dx6qj569
|
Will X/Twitter be banned in Brazil tomorrow?
|
Today (August 28, 2024), X.com was threatened with a legal threat to summon Elon Musk and/or ban X in Brazil within 24 hours. See https://x.com/xDaily/status/1828961812814934470
Resolves YES if X is banned or firewalled in Brazil by end-of-day on August 29, 2024 in UTC-5 (the westernmost timezone of Brazil). Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-08-28T19:19:23
|
2024-08-30T08:53:18
|
2024-08-30T14:21:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8h90olm50r
|
Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France?
|
Resolves YES if Durov is required to remain in France by court order AND is physically present there at Christmas Day.
|
2024-08-28T15:21:01
|
2024-12-25T05:46:58
|
2024-12-25T05:46:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jbxutlrwq4
|
Will Telegram founder Pavel Durov "jump bail" and leave France before October 1st?
|
On August 28th, the French authorities released Durov on bail, with the conditions that he does not leave the country, and checks in with authorities regularly.
https://deepnewz.com/us-elections/trump-to-appear-on-lex-fridman-s-podcast-4-million-listeners-part-strategy-to
[image]Given his immense resources, and support for his release by many, including the UAE government, will Durov leave France by October 1st?
The market will resolve YES if
Durov is confirmed to leave the country for any reason
He does not need to flee illegally to resolve as YES -- he can make a deal with the French government
Also if the French government hands him over (for any reason, including prosecution in another country)
If no such evidence is clear by October 2nd, we will resolve this as NO.
In the small chance he is missing... we will give an extra week to resolve the market. Also if Durov dies in France, that is NO and if he dies outside of France that is YES.
|
2024-08-28T13:44:31
|
2024-10-02T20:59:00
|
2024-10-02T21:32:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ha5iutf9xp
|
Will Kamala Harris's Lead in National Polls Increase After Her Interview?
|
Question will resolve YES if Kamala Harris's lead in 538's national polling for the general election 1 week after the interview is greater than the day the interview is conducted.
Question will resolve NO if otherwise.
|
2024-08-28T09:37:01
|
2024-09-05T20:59:00
|
2024-09-05T22:45:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-63xh0v5j6q
|
Was Pavel Durov lured to France with a dinner invitation from Macron?
|
[image]Le Canard enchaîné is apparently a partly satirical newspaper that regularly breaks real stories.
This market will resolve based on reporting about whether this actually happened. Reporting that Pavel Durov claims it happened is not enough. If there has been no confirmation on October 1st and no further reporting on the issue appears forthcoming, this will resolve NO.
I will not take a position in this market.
|
2024-08-28T04:33:42
|
2024-10-01T14:59:00
|
2024-10-06T02:42:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-68apowd4sv
|
Will the loser of the Trump/Harris debate have said the most words?
|
[image]Will the loser of the debate be the one that said the most words?
The "loser" is defined as the one that lost according to at least 2/3 of these markets:
https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/if-kamala-harris-debates-donald-tru?r=amlt
https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/will-kamala-harris-win-the-first-de?r=amlt
https://manifold.markets/nikki/who-will-win-the-first-harris-vs-tr?r=amlt
|
2024-08-28T01:13:35
|
2024-09-11T04:59:00
|
2024-09-12T02:42:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j92uuvujrz
|
Kamala positive favorability before October?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorability rating according to FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorability rating for any day between August 28 (inclusive) and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Ties do not qualify.
The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date.
See also:
Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6? (Market heavily inspired by Polymarket)
@/Bayesian/polymarketlinked-kamala-positive-fa (Polymarket clone)
|
2024-08-27T21:44:54
|
2024-09-22T13:52:18
|
2024-09-22T13:52:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uakml5y7jw
|
[Polymarket-linked] Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6?
|
This market will resolve the same as its Polymarket clone: Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6?
This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between August 27 (inclusive) and September 6, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Harris's favorable rating must be higher than her unfavorable rating, ties will not qualify.
The favorability ratings for each day must be finalized before they are considered for this market (namely once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's rating poll aggregator, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/, specifically the favorability rating indicated by the purple "favorable" trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates the favorability rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
If the 538 Kamala Harris favorability data for the stated time frame is not available by September 13, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note the resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g. 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
|
2024-08-27T21:36:38
|
2024-09-06T22:59:00
|
2024-09-07T14:37:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ypdgioh5l
|
Will there be another story about RFK Jr. and an unusual situation with a dead animal before October 1st?
|
This market resolves YES if there is another story in the vein of the three linked below.
It can be a resurfacing of an old story, as long as it's getting significant new attention. This is somewhat vibes-based, so I will not trade to stay unbiased. In ambiguous cases, resolution will err towards YES.
If there is not another such story after market creation and before market close at the end of August, this market resolves NO.
The latest example:
[tweet]Previous examples:
[tweet]
[tweet]
|
2024-08-27T14:43:51
|
2024-09-30T20:59:00
|
2024-10-05T07:02:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w8qmtsh0tp
|
Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available.
|
2024-08-27T14:14:55
|
2024-10-28T06:59:00
|
2024-10-31T09:54:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rayndg3srp
|
Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia? Aka "Deep Strikes"?
|
Currently US policies prohibit Ukraine from striking military targets on Russian soil, perhaps out of fear that this would cross a red line and constitute further escalation.
According to the [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24-2024) Russia has started to move its airforce assets from ATACAMS range, but there still are 233 "communications stations, logistics centers, repair facilities, fuel depots, ammunition warehouses, and permanent headquarters that would be extremely difficult or impossible to quickly redeploy assets from or rapidly harden."
[image] The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast however seems to prove those fears invalid.
Will the US shift its position on strikes in Russia until years end?
Epistemic Status:
Serious question.
A few minutes search on Metaculus and Predictit hasn't turned up too much on that.
Market conditions:
I will trade in this market
I am pro ukraine and think US permission on this will help to end the war sooner. Ofc i will try not to be biased, but i still am a fleshy human.
If i ever get enough mana i'll maybe upgrade this to Plus.
Resolution criteria:
It is not necessary to prove that it was exactly the incrusion into Kursk that shifted the US position.
Ukraine beginning to strike targets in Russia with US weapons in a big way, but without US permission will only count as YES if the US doesn't seriously disapprove. I.e. they just let it happen.
Ukraine finding other means to strike these targets without the need for US approval (e.g. germany somehow provides loads of Taurus-Marschflugkörper) will resolve NO.
|
2024-08-27T05:31:22
|
2024-11-23T00:41:43
|
2024-11-23T00:41:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-opryqt8ovz
|
Will the Russian army reach Pokrovsk by Oct 15th?
|
Will resolve based on the institute for the study of war maps (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates). Resolves YES immediately if any part of Pokrovsk city is marked as "Assesed Russian advances" or "Assesed Russian control" on any of the ISW maps assesing the situation up to Oct 15th. Otherwise resolves NO.
For reference, the situation as of Aug 26th is: https://understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/East%20of%20Pokrovsk%20Battle%20Map%20Draft%20August%2026%2C%202024.png
|
2024-08-27T03:26:08
|
2024-10-15T16:59:00
|
2024-10-17T01:57:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d6777xc77a
|
Pavel Durov released in August?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pavel Durov is released from custody by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". Transporting Durov to another location of custody will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from relevant governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
|
2024-08-26T19:01:03
|
2024-08-28T13:41:02
|
2024-08-28T13:41:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n3v38ggs08
|
Will Apple launch a new version of the AirPods Max at their September event?
|
Apple's September event will kick off on 9/9 at 10 a.m. PT. It will likely include new iPhones, among other things. Will one of the other things be a new version of the AirPods Max?
|
2024-08-26T17:32:49
|
2024-09-09T16:16:18
|
2024-09-09T16:16:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gyug2o2vup
|
Will Pavel Durov Die before being released from captivity?
|
Pavel Durov is currently held by French authorities. Will he die for any reason before being released? Suicide resolves YES.
|
2024-08-26T12:53:01
|
2024-08-28T14:29:56
|
2024-08-28T14:29:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gofilbtkg1
|
Will Kamala Harris flip a state?
|
Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?
Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.
Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.
This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.
If for whatever reason the Democratic nominee changes this question will be about the new nominee.
Versions for Trump:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/bagelfan/will-donald-trump-flip-a-state?play=true)(https://manifold.markets/embed/bagelfan/how-many-states-will-trump-flip-in?play=true)
|
2024-08-26T10:55:43
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:29:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ltnep814uq
|
Will Taylor Swift win both Artist of the Year & Song of the Year at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards (VMA)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-26T05:35:19
|
2024-09-11T19:35:54
|
2024-09-11T19:35:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7hmurth4lv
|
Would returning in the Starliner capsule have been catastrophic?
|
At the time of market creation, NASA was rehearsing procedures to reconfigure a Dragon capsule attached to the International Space Station to provide an emergency return option for the stranded astronauts, and then undock the Starliner to make room for the incoming crew.
This market will resolve to YES if NASA both commands the Starliner capsule to return to Earth and an unintended event occurs which would have made the return unsurvivable for a human.
The market will resolve to N/A if the Starliner is intentionally destroyed or boosted to a graveyard orbit without another catastrophic failure having occurred first. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The resolution date, which is most likely to be on September 6, will be when the capsule is on the ground, has been destroyed, or a permanent loss of control has occurred.
|
2024-08-26T04:50:05
|
2024-09-06T20:59:00
|
2024-09-07T04:27:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1n7jasfg6j
|
Will Pavel Durov still be in French custody at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-25T18:53:43
|
2024-08-29T14:23:04
|
2024-08-29T14:23:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j3z9q8q6em
|
Will Kamala Harris win the New York State Presidential Election by at least 20%?
|
Very few observers expect Kamala Harris to lose the state of New York in the 2024 Presidential Election. She could however win New York by a historically small margin.
This questions resolves YES if Kamala Harris's fraction of total votes is at least 0.2 larger than Donald Trump's fraction of total votes.
For example, if Harris receives 56%, Trump receives 36%, and third parties/write-ins receive 8%, this question resolves YES.
Ballots that do not include any vote for President are not counted.
This question will resolve on election night if the initial count answers the question with mathematical certainty. If the initial count finds a margin between 19-21%, this question will be extended until the results are certified by New York State.
|
2024-08-25T17:13:01
|
2024-11-05T21:59:29
|
2024-11-05T21:59:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1yijb82cab
|
Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election?
|
Will the certified electoral votes (January 2025) differ from the final AP reported electoral votes (~November /December 2025) in the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
2024-08-25T12:35:06
|
2024-12-31T09:23:41
|
2024-12-31T09:23:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ayqwrzma5s
|
Will Pavel Durov (Telegram founder) be under arrest or otherwise detained at the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to Yes if Pavel Durov is alive and physically detained by any governmental authority, including but not limited to:
- Under arrest (including house arrest).
- Out on bail but prohibited from leaving the country, unless Durov successfully escapes to a different jurisdiction where his freedom is not restricted by the local authorities. [clarified on August 28th]
- Serving a prison or jail sentence.
- Confined within a foreign consulate or diplomatic mission to evade arrest (similar to Julian Assange’s situation).
- In a hospital or medical facility where he is not free to leave due to being under guard or restricted by legal authority.
Resolves to No if Pavel Durov is alive and effectively free, even if:
- There are active arrest warrants against him in one or more countries.
- He is residing or traveling in a jurisdiction where he is not detained or under arrest, despite the existence of such warrants (e.g., living freely in the UAE while wanted by the U.S. or EU).
Resolves to No if Pavel Durov is deceased, regardless of the circumstances surrounding his death.
The market will close on December 31st but resolution might take a few days or weeks in case there’s confusion over what Durov’s status is on December 31st, 2024.
|
2024-08-24T22:26:01
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:39:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yvhu67zt3g
|
Will creator of Telegram Pavel Durov be still under arrest in France by September 15th?
|
Durov was released from police custody in France. I resolve to NO. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/28/tech/pavel-durov-telegram-custody-released-intl/index.html
|
2024-08-24T17:26:15
|
2024-08-29T09:04:08
|
2024-08-29T09:04:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s38xlvhjk8
|
Will Shohei Ohtani join the 50 Home runs and 50 stolen bases club? In this current season 2024
|
Will he be the first ever to do it? a club of one...
He just joined the 40/40 club.
|
2024-08-24T11:42:04
|
2024-09-19T22:54:43
|
2024-09-19T22:54:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9vzbkq4zpf
|
Will Grok 3 be released during December?
|
[tweet]See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ZviMowshowitz/will-grok-3-be-the-most-powerful-ai)
|
2024-08-24T10:06:47
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:59:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3seipzcdp9
|
Will Nvidia (NVDA) become the largest company in the world by market cap again in 2024?
|
According to https://companiesmarketcap.com/, will NVDA be the company with the highest market cap listed at any point during 2024?
Even if only for a moment, will NVDA be valued more than any other company again this year?
Also bet on:
@/mattyb/will-apple-inc-have-the-highest-mar
@/mattyb/will-apple-aapl-remain-the-largest
@/mattyb/what-companies-will-have-the-5-high
|
2024-08-24T07:19:19
|
2024-10-25T10:17:17
|
2024-10-25T10:17:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hqspgion81
|
Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2024?
|
This market predicts whether the U.S. federal government will approve and distribute broad-based economic stimulus checks to the general population during the 2024 calendar year. These payments should be similar to those distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, where most citizens and legal residents received direct payments, primarily subject to income limits.
The following will not be considered as stimulus for this market:
Regular Social Security payments
Existing tax credits
Assistance programs targeted at limited groups (such as veterans or farmers)
Localized disaster relief measures
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve as YES if before January 1st, 2025:
Federal legislation is passed authorizing direct cash payments to the majority of U.S. citizens and/or legal residents.
The payments are at least $600 per eligible adult.
Eligibility includes all U.S. citizens and qualifying residents aged 18 and above.
Eligibility for the payments is not restricted to specific groups (such as retirees or parents) and applies to the general population, although there may be income limits.
The federal government begins distributing these payments or officially announces a start date for distribution in 2024.
It will resolve as NO if these criteria are not met by the deadline.
Related markets:
@/singer/will-the-us-give-out-a-stimulus-che-95et37komm
@/singer/will-the-us-give-out-a-stimulus-che-do25j6fklu
|
2024-08-24T06:53:50
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:37:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qrmzh953jk
|
Will Beyonce AND Taylor Swift endorse Kamala before the end of Election Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-23T14:27:44
|
2024-10-25T20:23:10
|
2024-10-25T20:23:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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