id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ytjitpo1eg | Will one candidate win at least 5/7 tossup states? | Tossup states: NV, AZ, GA, NC, PA, MI, WI
Resolves YES if one candidate wins at least 5 of these states, NO if both candidates win at least 3 states
Resolved once AP/ Fox News/NYT all make calls in enough states to satisfy the market, or from officially certified state results | 2024-09-12T11:14:59 | 2024-11-06T19:55:29 | 2024-11-06T19:55:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d1t4k3nz3t | Will Trump win the 2024 Election? | This question resolves YES if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US presidential election, or resolves NO if he loses the election.
If Trump is no longer a candidate for president for any reason, this question resolves YES if any candidate of the Republican Party wins the election, or NO otherwise.
Resolution will be based ... | 2024-09-12T06:58:27 | 2024-11-06T14:08:43 | 2024-11-06T14:08:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8xd9saklr8 | Will Kamala Harris win all six swing states? | Resolves "Yes" if Kamala Harris wins every "swing" state in the 2024 US Presidential Election or "No" otherwise.
For the purposes of this market, the following states are considered as "swing states": Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin.
The resolution source for this market is the AP, Fox N... | 2024-09-12T04:49:14 | 2024-11-06T00:40:18 | 2024-11-06T00:40:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3l00o2wegl | Is the October suprise a US backed war with Iran? | Resolves yes if Israel (with US Backing) is at war with Iran(not a proxy war) by the end of October 2024.
Defensive weaponry is on the table, however US support in the form of offensive weaponry, troops, intelligence, machinery and all fall under US Backing. | 2024-09-12T00:46:10 | 2024-10-31T11:29:00 | 2024-10-31T23:25:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ql5bj5ylif | Will Kamala Harris debate Donald Trump on Fox News? | Market closes at the end of October (since it's an obvious NO if it hasn't happened by then) or on the day scheduled for a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on Fox News.
Resolves YES if the candidates appear for 1 second or more on a debate stage hosted by Fox and moderated by Fox News anchors.
Resolves N... | 2024-09-11T12:21:47 | 2024-10-31T23:59:00 | 2024-11-01T04:58:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cbxy0rbol4 | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris debate again before the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-11T07:56:39 | 2024-11-02T20:59:00 | 2024-11-05T19:53:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t3tzbc6z59 | Will Apple have another product release event in 2024? | Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES. | 2024-09-11T04:28:40 | 2024-12-31T15:16:04 | 2024-12-31T15:16:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4be8r1648q | Will Harris and Trump have a second debate? | The Kamala Harris campaign soon after the first ABC debate, asked the Trump campaign for a second debate, will Donald Trump agree to a second debate?
Resolves yes if there is a second Kamala Vs Donald debate. | 2024-09-11T02:10:03 | 2024-11-05T10:29:00 | 2024-11-05T18:46:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2t9wcu2q3j | Trump to pass Harris? | Resolves YES if Trump is listed as more likely to win than Harris at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Trump is listed above Harris. | 2024-09-10T23:32:04 | 2024-10-07T07:47:15 | 2024-10-07T07:47:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wlnc8ovaid | Will Donald Trump step down as Republican candidate in 2024 and name JD Vance the Republican candidate for president? | After Trump’s poor debate performance will he step down and name JD Vance the Republican presidential candidate before November 1, 2024. This is a scenario identical to Biden dropping out and Harris being named the Democratic nominee. | 2024-09-10T20:44:39 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:45:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-liq654lkhu | Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala before the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-10T20:31:45 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T21:01:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ic21c1vl16 | Will Travis Kelce endorse Trump before the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-10T20:31:33 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T21:01:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zbe3d4jtp6 | Will Russia end it’s war with Ukraine before the next US presidential inauguration? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-10T19:05:13 | 2025-01-20T08:19:55 | 2025-01-20T08:19:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vnhl1341h5 | Will Pennsylvania decide the election [read description]? | Pennsylvania is generally considered to be by far the most important state in this election cycle. Will Pennsylvania decide the 2024 POTUS election?
Winner of election loses Pennsylvania -> resolves NO
Winner of election wins Pennsylvania but the electoral college margin is large enough that Pennsylvania didn’t matte... | 2024-09-10T13:32:27 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:43:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-17yzwywwac | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands at their first debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-10T12:12:58 | 2024-09-11T20:59:00 | 2024-09-12T11:25:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zn6o111say | Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on October 31st? | https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning. NOT THE POLLING AVERAGE
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available. | 2024-09-10T09:46:23 | 2024-10-28T20:59:00 | 2024-10-31T09:54:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-40jg5uza1v | Bitcoin above $60,000 on September 27? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-10T01:34:59 | 2024-09-27T03:16:58 | 2024-09-27T03:16:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fxo5w3aptq | Will Kamala's win probability on Polymarket go up during the debate? | Formula:
A = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour before the debate starts.
B = average of Kamala Harris' odds on the main US election market on Polymarket in the hour after the debate ends.
Resolves YES if B > A. Tie resolves NO.
The debate starts at 9 p.m ET. Th... | 2024-09-09T16:37:43 | 2024-09-10T20:59:00 | 2024-09-10T21:10:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ycpxvp5w4r | Will Trump call Kamala a communist during the debate? | Has to happen during the debate, associated words like "commie" or "Comrade Harris" or something count as well. To resolve YES, he must be referring to Kamala herself, not a policy or associated person. | 2024-09-09T10:39:02 | 2024-09-10T18:00:00 | 2024-09-12T07:00:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rzupx7lgck | Will Kamala Harris go on the Joe Rogan Experience before the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-08T15:55:50 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:14:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3xjpq9lls1 | Will Nate Silver's model have a higher probability of Kamala victory than electionbettingodds.com on election day? | Will compare nate's final model release on election day to EBO at that time. in the event of some weird bugs or ambiguities i'll turn the market over to mods | 2024-09-07T13:04:58 | 2024-11-04T22:38:27 | 2024-11-04T22:38:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vul52nvqkx | Will Wikileaks post a new leak before the election? | https://wikileaks.org/-Leaks-.html
The last one is from Dec 2018 | 2024-09-07T08:49:10 | 2024-11-09T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T21:00:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f02ll0k2vf | Does a Trump presidential victory imply Joe Biden will pardon Hunter? | Resolves Yes if Trump wins and Joe Biden pardons Hunter Biden (or commutes his sentence), or if Trump loses. Resolves No if Trump wins and there is no pardon or commuted sentence.
This is a derivative market; it will resolve exactly according to:
@/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964
and
@/MaximL... | 2024-09-07T08:45:41 | 2024-12-01T17:08:36 | 2024-12-01T17:08:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ffdd0mkdsp | Will Astro Bot win Game of the Year at the Game Awards 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot
| 2024-09-07T04:22:51 | 2024-12-12T20:03:41 | 2024-12-12T20:03:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9g8kfe8iv5 | If Trump wins, will RFK Jr become his first HHS secretary? | Resolves YES if Robert F Kennedy Jr. becomes Trump's first HHS secretary, N/A if Trump doesn't win, and NO otherwise. | 2024-09-06T13:36:05 | 2025-02-13T14:29:29 | 2025-02-13T14:29:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jatexbwtir | In the next presidential debate, would Kamala Harris stand on the right-side podium? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-06T11:12:50 | 2024-09-11T10:52:10 | 2024-09-11T10:52:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-r90iriz45e | Will Barnier still be Prime Minister of France on October 15th 2024 ? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-06T10:49:07 | 2024-10-16T20:59:00 | 2024-10-17T05:01:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3bgx8fyzcb | Government shuts down this year? | If the government is shut down at any 10:00 AM ET by 2024, then the market resolves to YES.
The current status of government opening is available here.
The market will resolve YES if there is a notice that the U.S. federal government is at least partially shut down between market creation and December 31st, 2024 at... | 2024-09-06T02:55:00 | 2024-12-31T07:00:00 | 2024-12-31T11:52:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tu24hur69l | Trump to Admit 2020 Defeat? Presidential debate | If there is no Debate between Trump and Harris before Election this Market resolves to N/A.
If the question is not asked this market resolves to N/A | 2024-09-05T14:52:52 | 2024-09-10T19:50:03 | 2024-09-10T19:50:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ha8siwsis8 | Will Michel Barnier be the prime minister of France on Jan 1st 2025? | Resolves NO if he has resigned but hasn't been replaced yet (i.e. he is "démissionnaire"). | 2024-09-05T04:43:29 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T22:59:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u73ve2zddr | Will the Nintendo Switch successor be revealed in September 2024? | Multiple media sources have indicated that the Nintendo Switch successor ("Nintendo Switch 2") could be revealed during this month. (see embeds below) On the other hand, rumours of the successor's reveal have occurred previously with little results.
For clarity, this market will resolve to YES if key information like ... | 2024-09-05T00:44:27 | 2024-09-30T23:59:00 | 2024-10-01T06:24:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nqxer6yxtk | Will the Trump Family's crypto project launch a token before election day? | This market resolves YES if the Trump Family's decentralized finance project World Liberty Financial is known to have launched a crypto token before November 5th, 2024 (Eastern Time).
NFTs such as Trump's crypto trading cards would not count.
However, a governance token like what is speculated on in this reporting wo... | 2024-09-04T08:16:14 | 2024-10-15T11:22:18 | 2024-10-15T11:22:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0adficjjzt | Will RFK Jr be removed from the ballot in North Carolina? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-04T05:29:18 | 2024-10-15T09:53:01 | 2024-10-15T09:53:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lxic627kyr | Will the Chiefs make it to the Super Bowl again in 2025? | The Kansas City Chiefs won the past 2 Super Bowls. Will they play in the Super Bowl again in 2025? | 2024-09-03T15:57:53 | 2025-01-27T09:12:22 | 2025-01-27T09:12:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4e9qxbirdp | Will Kamala Harris be a guest on the Lex Fridman Podcast before election day 2024? | The episode itself must be released before November 5th, 2024, not merely recorded before that date. | 2024-09-03T13:52:41 | 2024-11-05T03:21:22 | 2024-11-05T03:21:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vp0ckl70df | Will JD Vance and Tim Walz both participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS News on October 1st? | This question resolves YES if both JD Vance and Tim Walz participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS news on October 1st, 2024.
If either candidate does not participate in such an event on October 1st (Eastern Time) this question resolves NO.
If both candidates participate in the debate but one leaves be... | 2024-09-03T12:31:16 | 2024-10-01T18:46:42 | 2024-10-01T18:46:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bio46x096h | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris both participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC News on September 10th? | This question resolves YES if both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris participate in a presidential debate hosted by ABC News on September 10th, 2024.
If either candidate does not participate in such an event on September 10th (Eastern Time) this question resolves NO.
If both candidates participate in the debate but one... | 2024-09-03T12:09:50 | 2024-09-11T08:18:10 | 2024-09-11T08:18:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qg8fhtoft3 | Will November 2024 be the hottest November ever? [NCEI] | Will November 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Env... | 2024-09-03T08:32:17 | 2024-12-12T07:34:55 | 2024-12-12T07:36:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5e39tbzv9o | Will October 2024 be the hottest October ever? [NCEI] | Will October 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for Envi... | 2024-09-03T08:30:01 | 2024-11-13T07:58:24 | 2024-11-13T07:58:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lij5ryoh0o | Will Taylor Swift attend the Chiefs season opener? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-02T18:25:02 | 2024-09-05T17:43:20 | 2024-09-05T17:43:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-utu8gpywq9 | Will Kamala Harris poll below +1.5 nationally in Nate Silver's polling average 2 weeks from now? | This market will close on September 15th and resolve based on the number posted here: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
under the most recent update as of 8:59 pm pacific time, September 16th. (i.e., this market closes a day before it resolves)
Nate Silver's election model ... | 2024-09-02T16:50:12 | 2024-09-15T23:59:00 | 2024-09-16T12:00:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-46tp72r31e | POTUS: Will the winner lose the popular vote? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-02T15:43:44 | 2024-11-07T10:59:00 | 2024-11-07T19:42:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jvbhseaorj | Will a higher % of Americans pick the winning candidate in 2024 than in 2020? [ READ DESCRIPTION ] | According to Statista, 24.56% of the US population voted for Biden in the 2020 US general election, the highest percentage ever of Americans who actually voted AND chose the candidate that won.
In 2016, the similar statistic for Americans who voted for Trump was 19.42%.
Will more Americans, as a percentage of total... | 2024-09-02T13:26:05 | 2024-11-20T21:11:03 | 2024-11-20T21:11:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-miyw2eiqvt | Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month? | Resolves YES if at any point in time, Ukraine takes control of the Kurs Nuclear Power Plant, by the end of September 30, 2024 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). | 2024-09-02T10:04:07 | 2024-09-30T14:59:00 | 2024-09-30T15:16:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b51baypzzv | Will the 2024 US Presidential candidate who wins Pennsylvania also win the election? | This market resolves to "Yes" if the candidate who wins the state of Pennsylvania in the 2024 US Presidential election also wins the overall presidential election. It resolves to "No" if the candidate who wins Pennsylvania does not win the overall election.
Pennsylvania is often considered a key battleground state, a... | 2024-09-02T09:48:58 | 2024-11-25T13:00:52 | 2024-11-25T13:00:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sceggmblu1 | Will there be a government shutdown before March 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-02T08:03:14 | 2025-02-28T20:59:00 | 2025-02-28T21:26:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eboda2f7ns | Will September 2024 be the hottest September ever? [NCEI] | Will September 2024 have the highest global land and ocean average temperature anomaly according to the Global Time Series from the National Centers for Environmental Information?
The market will resolve once the data is released.
The closing and resolution date is subject to change should the National Centers for E... | 2024-09-02T07:50:30 | 2024-10-10T07:59:59 | 2024-10-24T10:24:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n1j87392pg | Will Newsom veto SB 1047? | Will California Governor Gavin Newsom veto SB 1047? For a baserate, he vetoed 30% of laws last year, and 14% the day before <https://calmatters.org/newsletters/whatmatters/2023/10/gavin-newsom-veto-bills/> | 2024-09-02T05:13:04 | 2024-09-29T14:11:56 | 2024-09-29T14:11:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vdl3i2frvp | Will the 2024 presidential election be a nail-biter throughout? (3-leg parlay, read description) | Resolves positive if ALL THREE of the outcomes take place:
Both candidates have 45-55% probability on Election Betting Odds at 12pm EST 11/4/24 (linked market)
CNN does not project a winner before 9am EST 11/6/24, the morning after election day (Example: 2004, 2020)
The winning candidate wins fewer than 300 electora... | 2024-09-01T21:23:22 | 2024-11-04T16:34:02 | 2024-11-04T16:34:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gn2fs6ot7y | Will Lex Fridman interview a high ranking Democrat in 2024? | Resolves YES if a Lex interview is released this year where the guest is 1) a Democrat (or caucusing with Democrats) and 2) a current or past:
presidential nominee
vice presidential nominee
top 3 in a primary election for president
senator
house rep
governor
mayor of a city with population 500k+
cabinet member
... | 2024-09-01T19:54:36 | 2024-10-23T19:15:55 | 2024-10-23T19:15:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dlagqcpk7y | Will Manchester United finish 2024 with a positive goal difference in the league? | After losing to Liverpool at home, United have a -3 GD. This market resolves to yes if they have a goal difference of at least 1 in the 2024 calendar year portion of 24-25 Premier League season (around half the season). | 2024-09-01T15:54:30 | 2024-12-30T12:55:11 | 2024-12-30T12:55:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nif5un6g5x | Will any of the remaining hostages taken by Hamas on October 7 return home alive before the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if any additional live hostages (after September 1) are rescued, escape, or released from Hamas captivity. If only bodies are recovered, market resolves NO.
Only includes hostages taken by Hamas as part of the October 7 2023 attack. Any hostages taken before or after this date do not count.
Market will re... | 2024-09-01T13:16:36 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T18:08:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vnln0avcby | Will Hikaru Nakamura beat Alireza Firouzja in the Speed Chess Championship semifinal? | The match will be played on Friday 2PM GMT.
| 2024-09-01T13:10:10 | 2024-09-06T11:02:54 | 2024-09-06T11:02:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d7ian3ntia | Will Donald Trump be sentenced to prison in September of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-09-01T09:34:10 | 2024-09-30T20:59:00 | 2024-10-01T16:52:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3u7fdc0tw6 | Will bitcoin end October 31, 2024 over $69000? | End of month California time | 2024-09-01T08:03:48 | 2024-10-31T23:59:00 | 2024-11-01T00:00:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ay2k5fe0j5 | Will the 2024 presidential election be decided by fewer than 100,000 votes? | I'm defining "decided by" a little weirdly, so please read the description before betting.
Arrange all of the states (+ congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska) from red to blue based on 2024 margin of victory (Trump's % of the vote - Harris' % of the vote). If Trump is the winner, start flipping the closest sta... | 2024-08-31T16:58:50 | 2024-11-08T11:09:26 | 2024-11-08T11:09:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1kq08lbtdk | Will JD Vance release any of his tax returns before election day? | James David "JD" Vance has yet to release any of his tax returns at the time of market creation, according to https://www.taxnotes.com/presidential-tax-returns.
There has been a longstanding norm for presidential and vice presidential candidates to voluntarily release their tax returns, in the interests of transparen... | 2024-08-31T10:59:02 | 2024-11-05T03:25:01 | 2024-11-05T03:25:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7otntqgmc9 | Will a member of United States congress die in 2025? | If they are elected at any point in the 30 days prior to death, or the day they die, it will resolve YES.
House & Senate | 2024-08-31T09:27:04 | 2025-03-06T13:55:44 | 2025-03-06T13:55:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0mhzbvxcbd | Will Microsoft acquire Cursor before the end of 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-31T05:11:34 | 2024-12-31T15:54:51 | 2024-12-31T15:54:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-319f5s7ju0 | Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of September? | end of sept israel time zone | 2024-08-30T21:03:55 | 2024-09-30T17:30:52 | 2024-09-30T17:30:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-alt2o6br9q | Will Kamala Harris publicly admit that she didn't actually work at McDonalds at some point before election day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-30T16:03:48 | 2024-11-05T03:20:59 | 2024-11-05T03:20:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3t7sx026mv | Is Putin going to be arrested when visiting Mongolia? | https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e852r50x7o
If he doesn't visit Mongolia until End of September 2024, this question resolves NA
| 2024-08-30T08:38:01 | 2024-09-03T10:19:32 | 2024-09-03T10:19:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kppht92ynd | Will Kamala Harris be president and have a registered Republican in her cabinet within the first 100 days of her term? | If Kamala Harris is elected President of the United States, and a registered Republican is nominated to her cabinet or to a cabinet-level position, and that person confirmed by the Senate, all before the end of April 30, 2025, this market will resolve YES.
Otherwise NO. | 2024-08-30T04:02:45 | 2024-11-09T02:48:24 | 2024-11-09T02:48:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n1leuxaauz | Will Joe Biden pardon Donald Trump before leaving office? | For any crimes he is currently charged with. | 2024-08-30T02:38:08 | 2025-01-20T10:21:04 | 2025-01-20T10:21:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wm2xgv0jbm | Will any aviation incidents or accidents occur during Portugal’s ground worker strike? | “On Monday, the Portuguese Transport Workers’ Union (Sttamp) gave a strike notice for all national airports from “00:00 on August 31 until midnight on September 1, 2024” and disruption to airport services is expected to be significant.
The union warned of “severe constraints” at major aviation hubs, including Lisbon a... | 2024-08-29T19:11:05 | 2024-09-02T13:18:19 | 2024-09-02T13:18:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-most4fpj8w | Will Kamala Harris sit down for a SOLO interview before Election Day? | Will resolve (YES) when it’s reported in the mainstream media that Harris was the subject of a solo interview (TV, Radio, Social Media, Newspaper/Magazine including online publications) and the contents of that interview has been publicly made available. Will resolve (NO) if Harris does not take part in a solo intervie... | 2024-08-29T18:56:54 | 2024-09-09T21:32:51 | 2024-09-09T21:32:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j3g8llmajd | Will Harris overtake Trump in Nate Silver's Presidential forecast within the next week? | Nate Silver has left 538 but he continues to maintain his Presidential election model which attempts to put a figure on how likely each of the candidates are to win the electoral college and therefore win the election.
Trump was leading Biden by a wide margin but the first model to measure him against Harris gave her ... | 2024-08-29T12:28:07 | 2024-09-05T12:30:00 | 2024-09-05T14:10:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5jlaeunyp6 | Will Kamala Harris flip a coin? | Resolves YES if she flips a coin in public at any time before the election. | 2024-08-29T11:11:08 | 2024-11-05T14:59:00 | 2024-11-05T15:10:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gw9ejfqw12 | Will Donald Trump call for violence before the next inauguration? | Recently Trump has shared calls for his opponents to be subjected to "public military tribunals" and prosecuted for crimes that carry the death penalty (see, e.g., https://x.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1828875846209437870). He has not yet, to my knowledge, directly called for anyone to be lynched, beaten, or otherwise ph... | 2024-08-29T08:50:23 | 2025-01-20T21:59:00 | 2025-01-21T21:10:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e1t4jaokgn | Will Kamala giggle/laugh during her CNN interview tonight? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-29T08:16:09 | 2024-08-30T20:59:00 | 2024-08-31T04:18:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a4lxhx0c9j | Pavel Durov leaves France in 2024? | Pavel Durov, the CEO of Telegram, has been placed under formal investigation in France and is barred from leaving the country. He was arrested at Le Bourget airport near Paris on Saturday and released from police custody on Wednesday, but he must remain in France pending further investigation. Durov faces allegations r... | 2024-08-28T21:45:32 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-14T15:27:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w3j1bjihx3 | Will Mufasa have a bigger opening than Sonic 3? (Domestic) | will go by the 'opening' section on boxofficemojo (domestic) https://www.boxofficemojo.com/
[image] | 2024-08-28T20:55:48 | 2024-12-23T14:22:41 | 2024-12-23T14:22:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-24dx6qj569 | Will X/Twitter be banned in Brazil tomorrow? | Today (August 28, 2024), X.com was threatened with a legal threat to summon Elon Musk and/or ban X in Brazil within 24 hours. See https://x.com/xDaily/status/1828961812814934470
Resolves YES if X is banned or firewalled in Brazil by end-of-day on August 29, 2024 in UTC-5 (the westernmost timezone of Brazil). Resolves ... | 2024-08-28T19:19:23 | 2024-08-30T08:53:18 | 2024-08-30T14:21:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8h90olm50r | Will Pavel Durov be Forced to spend Christmas in France? | Resolves YES if Durov is required to remain in France by court order AND is physically present there at Christmas Day. | 2024-08-28T15:21:01 | 2024-12-25T05:46:58 | 2024-12-25T05:46:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jbxutlrwq4 | Will Telegram founder Pavel Durov "jump bail" and leave France before October 1st? | On August 28th, the French authorities released Durov on bail, with the conditions that he does not leave the country, and checks in with authorities regularly.
https://deepnewz.com/us-elections/trump-to-appear-on-lex-fridman-s-podcast-4-million-listeners-part-strategy-to
[image]Given his immense resources, and suppor... | 2024-08-28T13:44:31 | 2024-10-02T20:59:00 | 2024-10-02T21:32:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ha5iutf9xp | Will Kamala Harris's Lead in National Polls Increase After Her Interview? | Question will resolve YES if Kamala Harris's lead in 538's national polling for the general election 1 week after the interview is greater than the day the interview is conducted.
Question will resolve NO if otherwise. | 2024-08-28T09:37:01 | 2024-09-05T20:59:00 | 2024-09-05T22:45:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-63xh0v5j6q | Was Pavel Durov lured to France with a dinner invitation from Macron? | [image]Le Canard enchaîné is apparently a partly satirical newspaper that regularly breaks real stories.
This market will resolve based on reporting about whether this actually happened. Reporting that Pavel Durov claims it happened is not enough. If there has been no confirmation on October 1st and no further reporti... | 2024-08-28T04:33:42 | 2024-10-01T14:59:00 | 2024-10-06T02:42:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-68apowd4sv | Will the loser of the Trump/Harris debate have said the most words? | [image]Will the loser of the debate be the one that said the most words?
The "loser" is defined as the one that lost according to at least 2/3 of these markets:
https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/if-kamala-harris-debates-donald-tru?r=amlt
https://manifold.markets/Daniel_MC/will-kamala-harris-win-the-first-de?r=... | 2024-08-28T01:13:35 | 2024-09-11T04:59:00 | 2024-09-12T02:42:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j92uuvujrz | Kamala positive favorability before October? | This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorability rating according to FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorability rating for any day between August 28 (inclusive) and September 30, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Ties do not qualify.
The favorability ratings for ea... | 2024-08-27T21:44:54 | 2024-09-22T13:52:18 | 2024-09-22T13:52:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uakml5y7jw | [Polymarket-linked] Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6? | This market will resolve the same as its Polymarket clone: Kamala positive favorability by Sept 6?
This is a market will resolve to “Yes”, if Kamala Harris's favorable rating by FiveThirtyEight is higher than her unfavorable rating for any day between August 27 (inclusive) and September 6, 2024 (inclusive). Otherwise,... | 2024-08-27T21:36:38 | 2024-09-06T22:59:00 | 2024-09-07T14:37:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0ypdgioh5l | Will there be another story about RFK Jr. and an unusual situation with a dead animal before October 1st? | This market resolves YES if there is another story in the vein of the three linked below.
It can be a resurfacing of an old story, as long as it's getting significant new attention. This is somewhat vibes-based, so I will not trade to stay unbiased. In ambiguous cases, resolution will err towards YES.
If there is not... | 2024-08-27T14:43:51 | 2024-09-30T20:59:00 | 2024-10-05T07:02:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8qmtsh0tp | Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on October 31st? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available. | 2024-08-27T14:14:55 | 2024-10-28T06:59:00 | 2024-10-31T09:54:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rayndg3srp | Will the US lift restrictions on Ukraine striking targets in Russia? Aka "Deep Strikes"? | Currently US policies prohibit Ukraine from striking military targets on Russian soil, perhaps out of fear that this would cross a red line and constitute further escalation.
According to the [ISW](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-24-2024) Russia has started t... | 2024-08-27T05:31:22 | 2024-11-23T00:41:43 | 2024-11-23T00:41:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-opryqt8ovz | Will the Russian army reach Pokrovsk by Oct 15th? | Will resolve based on the institute for the study of war maps (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates). Resolves YES immediately if any part of Pokrovsk city is marked as "Assesed Russian advances" or "Assesed Russian control" on any of the ISW maps assesing the situation up to Oct 15th.... | 2024-08-27T03:26:08 | 2024-10-15T16:59:00 | 2024-10-17T01:57:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d6777xc77a | Pavel Durov released in August? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pavel Durov is released from custody by August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Durov is released from custody by the resolution date but remains in house arrest, the market will immediately resolve to "Yes". Transporting Durov to another locati... | 2024-08-26T19:01:03 | 2024-08-28T13:41:02 | 2024-08-28T13:41:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3v38ggs08 | Will Apple launch a new version of the AirPods Max at their September event? | Apple's September event will kick off on 9/9 at 10 a.m. PT. It will likely include new iPhones, among other things. Will one of the other things be a new version of the AirPods Max? | 2024-08-26T17:32:49 | 2024-09-09T16:16:18 | 2024-09-09T16:16:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gyug2o2vup | Will Pavel Durov Die before being released from captivity? | Pavel Durov is currently held by French authorities. Will he die for any reason before being released? Suicide resolves YES. | 2024-08-26T12:53:01 | 2024-08-28T14:29:56 | 2024-08-28T14:29:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gofilbtkg1 | Will Kamala Harris flip a state? | Will Kamala Harris flip a state in the 2024 presidential election?
Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.
Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.
This question closes a day... | 2024-08-26T10:55:43 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:29:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ltnep814uq | Will Taylor Swift win both Artist of the Year & Song of the Year at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards (VMA)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-26T05:35:19 | 2024-09-11T19:35:54 | 2024-09-11T19:35:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7hmurth4lv | Would returning in the Starliner capsule have been catastrophic? | At the time of market creation, NASA was rehearsing procedures to reconfigure a Dragon capsule attached to the International Space Station to provide an emergency return option for the stranded astronauts, and then undock the Starliner to make room for the incoming crew.
This market will resolve to YES if NASA both co... | 2024-08-26T04:50:05 | 2024-09-06T20:59:00 | 2024-09-07T04:27:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1n7jasfg6j | Will Pavel Durov still be in French custody at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-25T18:53:43 | 2024-08-29T14:23:04 | 2024-08-29T14:23:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j3z9q8q6em | Will Kamala Harris win the New York State Presidential Election by at least 20%? | Very few observers expect Kamala Harris to lose the state of New York in the 2024 Presidential Election. She could however win New York by a historically small margin.
This questions resolves YES if Kamala Harris's fraction of total votes is at least 0.2 larger than Donald Trump's fraction of total votes.
For example... | 2024-08-25T17:13:01 | 2024-11-05T21:59:29 | 2024-11-05T21:59:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1yijb82cab | Will the certified electoral votes differ from the final votes in the 2024 US election? | Will the certified electoral votes (January 2025) differ from the final AP reported electoral votes (~November /December 2025) in the 2024 US Presidential election? | 2024-08-25T12:35:06 | 2024-12-31T09:23:41 | 2024-12-31T09:23:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ayqwrzma5s | Will Pavel Durov (Telegram founder) be under arrest or otherwise detained at the end of 2024? | Resolves to Yes if Pavel Durov is alive and physically detained by any governmental authority, including but not limited to:
- Under arrest (including house arrest).
- Out on bail but prohibited from leaving the country, unless Durov successfully escapes to a different jurisdiction where his freedom is not restricted... | 2024-08-24T22:26:01 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:39:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yvhu67zt3g | Will creator of Telegram Pavel Durov be still under arrest in France by September 15th? | Durov was released from police custody in France. I resolve to NO. https://edition.cnn.com/2024/08/28/tech/pavel-durov-telegram-custody-released-intl/index.html | 2024-08-24T17:26:15 | 2024-08-29T09:04:08 | 2024-08-29T09:04:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s38xlvhjk8 | Will Shohei Ohtani join the 50 Home runs and 50 stolen bases club? In this current season 2024 | Will he be the first ever to do it? a club of one...
He just joined the 40/40 club. | 2024-08-24T11:42:04 | 2024-09-19T22:54:43 | 2024-09-19T22:54:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9vzbkq4zpf | Will Grok 3 be released during December? | [tweet]See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ZviMowshowitz/will-grok-3-be-the-most-powerful-ai) | 2024-08-24T10:06:47 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:59:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3seipzcdp9 | Will Nvidia (NVDA) become the largest company in the world by market cap again in 2024? | According to https://companiesmarketcap.com/, will NVDA be the company with the highest market cap listed at any point during 2024?
Even if only for a moment, will NVDA be valued more than any other company again this year?
Also bet on:
@/mattyb/will-apple-inc-have-the-highest-mar
@/mattyb/will-apple-aapl-remain-t... | 2024-08-24T07:19:19 | 2024-10-25T10:17:17 | 2024-10-25T10:17:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hqspgion81 | Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2024? | This market predicts whether the U.S. federal government will approve and distribute broad-based economic stimulus checks to the general population during the 2024 calendar year. These payments should be similar to those distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021, where most citizens and legal residents rece... | 2024-08-24T06:53:50 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:37:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qrmzh953jk | Will Beyonce AND Taylor Swift endorse Kamala before the end of Election Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-23T14:27:44 | 2024-10-25T20:23:10 | 2024-10-25T20:23:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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