id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-9zmunvox7k
|
Will RFK Jr. 'unsuspend' his campaign before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-23T14:14:38
|
2024-11-05T05:44:10
|
2024-11-05T05:44:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6kcq9jm2v5
|
If Trump is elected president, will he appoint Kennedy to a government position by the end of 2026?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump becomes president and appoints Robert Kennedy Jr. to a government position by the end of 2026. Resolves NO if he becomes president and does not do so. Resolves N/A if Trump does not become president.
|
2024-08-23T13:31:29
|
2025-02-13T08:46:07
|
2025-02-13T08:46:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g7w5kkck6v
|
If Donald Trump is elected President, will Bobby Brain Worms Kennedy join his administration by the end of 2025?
|
Will noted roadkill enthusiast and former Harvard cocaine kingpin Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be appointed to a position in Trump’s administration if he wins? This question will resolve N/A if Trump is not elected president.
|
2024-08-23T11:56:51
|
2025-02-16T21:15:08
|
2025-02-16T21:15:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rqhbfpivuz
|
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr be nominated to any cabinet/secretary position in 2025?
|
Resolves "yes" if Trump announces his nomination, regardless of whether RFK is ultimately confirmed to the position.
Resolves N/A if Trump does not win.
For clarification, any of these “Positions intermittently elevated to Cabinet-rank” will also count: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States#Positions_intermittently_elevated_to_Cabinet-rank
|
2024-08-23T11:05:31
|
2025-01-31T09:32:18
|
2025-01-31T09:32:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k49vbguyyd
|
Will the elected President be the first candidate to reach 60%?
|
NOTE:
in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).
Rules:
Through analyzing the graph, if at a static point, before eod November 5th, I determine a candidate’s odds has reached at least 60.0%, then the market will resolve YES after that candidate is officially elected and NO after that candidate not elected.
Since trump already reached 60% this will resolve YES if, between market creation and eod November 5th 2024, nobody else reaches 60% again, and Trump goes on to be certified president this election.
To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.
Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.
Comment any questions or news you have! 💙
|
2024-08-22T15:33:45
|
2025-01-06T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:11:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e6jlnweinj
|
Will Trump reach 60% before election day?
|
Resolves YES if Trump reaches 60% at any point from now until Nov 4, 2024 11:59 PM PT on electionbettingodds.com
|
2024-08-22T13:10:23
|
2024-10-21T22:34:23
|
2024-10-21T22:34:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vuccfupfgt
|
Will Boeing Starliner’s return flight be unmanned?
|
Will keep market open until Starliner returns.
|
2024-08-22T08:44:03
|
2024-09-07T05:09:01
|
2024-09-07T05:09:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-40xrswm1jl
|
Will RFK Jr drop out of the Presidential race and endorse Donald Trump TODAY (Friday 23rd August)?
|
Multiple media sources are reporting that RFK Jr is getting ready to drop out of the race and endorse Trump on Friday:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/nyregion/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-speech.html
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cwy7370nxz9o.amp
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/21/rfk-jr-dropping-out-report
He is planning to make an address to the nation on Friday. Will he do both of the following during that address or by the end of the day (Washington DC time) on Friday?
Announce that he is suspending or ending his Presidential campaign
Endorsing Donald Trump or urging his supporters to vote for Donald Trump
The endorsement must explicitly be for Trump or the Republican ticket. So “vote for the Republican candidate” would count but “vote for the candidate best placed to save America” would not.
|
2024-08-22T07:37:11
|
2024-08-23T15:28:29
|
2024-08-23T15:28:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o1n4lw1lwd
|
Will Columbus beat LAFC? ⚽|🏆 2024 Leagues Cup Final
|
[image]
|
2024-08-22T07:09:52
|
2024-08-25T18:36:58
|
2024-08-25T18:36:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vfpg9y12me
|
Musk visits white house if Trump wins. Or doesn't visit if Harris wins, by mid 2025
|
This is a double conditional so it should be possible to bet without worrying
The claim is both that:
If Trump wins Elon will visit the white house
If Harris wins Elon will not visit white house
The time period begins when either Harris or Trump assumes office, and ends either early if a visit happens, or at end of claim period June 30 2025.
Any visit must be confirmed to have happened officially by the white house, or by a photograph, or by a major us newspaper such as the la times, wash post, etc, excluding nyt.
|
2024-08-22T05:56:53
|
2025-02-07T13:29:56
|
2025-02-07T13:29:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-apypblxssc
|
If Trump wins the 2024 presidential election, will RFK be confirmed for a cabinet position within six months?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump loses the election.
Resolves YES if RFK is appointed by Trump and confirmed by the Senate by July 20.
|
2024-08-22T05:36:14
|
2025-02-13T08:57:53
|
2025-02-13T08:57:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rcewtc39jf
|
California Proposition 34 (2024) Passes - Regulate Health Care Orgs' Political Spending
|
California Proposition 34 is a ballot measure that would force AIDS Healthcare Foundation (AHF) to spend their revenues from a federal subsidy on patient care. This market shall resolve YES if voters approve Proposition 34.
Currently AHF spends money in politics in ballot measures, most recently a string of rent control ballot measures up to and including this year's Proposition 33.
Prop 34 requires a majority to pass.
https://calmatters.org/california-voter-guide-2024/propositions/prop-34-patient-spending/
|
2024-08-21T23:39:11
|
2024-11-21T19:43:57
|
2024-11-21T19:43:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xhzbtqf1bp
|
Will RFK and Trump make a joint appearance before Aug 26th?
|
RFK Jr. is making a public address this Friday, August 23rd, in Phoenix, AZ. He is expected to announce that he is dropping out of the presidential rate, and many believe he will endorse Trump. Notably, Trump is also in the Phoenix area for a Turning Point PAC rally the same day.
This market resolves Yes if RFK Jr. and Donald Trump make a joint appearance any time between the Kennedy Address (starting Aug 23 at 12p MT) and Aug 25 at 11:59p MT.
The two must be in the same place at the same time, deliberately, and must be together. Some examples of scenarios that count for a Yes resolution include:
Trump is at the Kennedy Address
Kennedy is at the Trump rally
Trump and Kennedy are in another location together, interacting with one another and potentially an audience or journalists. (for ex, a third event where they both speak; a brief moment together where they talk to journalists even spontaneously; flying together on a plane and sharing a video to a social platform)
This will not resolve for any time spent together outside of the window listed above - if a prior meeting was recorded before the Friday address and shared afterward, it won't count.
I won't bet in this market in case there is any unanticipated subjectivity.
|
2024-08-21T19:38:01
|
2024-08-23T17:33:23
|
2024-08-23T17:33:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k1kn782u9s
|
Will Bronny score 10+ points in the 24-25 NBA regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-21T13:30:34
|
2025-02-25T17:58:27
|
2025-02-25T17:58:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xznp7kqsr0
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 on DevDay 2024?
|
Resolves YES if OpenAI releases GPT-5 during the OpenAI San Fransisco, London or Singapore DevDays, or announces it and releases it in the following 2 days (to avoid resolving NO in the case of technical difficulties).
For the purpose of this market, GPT-5 is whatever new major flagship model is next released, that is a GPT or has similar capabilities to a GPT, and is not part of the GPT-4 family (including GPT-4.5). If a smaller version of the "main" GPT-5 model is announced, like Google did when releasing Gemini Pro before Gemini Ultra, this counts as releasing GPT-5. If they announce a release in the coming 2 days, but first announce this release during DevDay, this market still resolves YES.
See also:
@/Bayesian/will-openai-release-gpt45-on-devday
@/Bayesian/will-openai-showcase-a-humanoid-rob
|
2024-08-21T12:45:27
|
2024-11-21T12:50:00
|
2024-11-23T18:08:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8zm2jjbied
|
Harris to pass Trump?
|
Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
This includes if the percentage shown is equal but Harris is listed above Trump.
|
2024-08-21T12:02:17
|
2024-08-22T12:30:19
|
2024-08-22T12:30:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r6t86kxpd0
|
If Trump wins, will RFK Jr. become secretary of health and human services?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump doesn't win.
Resolves NO if Trump wins and somebody other than RFK assumes the position.
|
2024-08-21T11:44:58
|
2025-02-13T12:08:24
|
2025-02-13T12:08:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ulju9npeh1
|
If Trump wins, will he offer RFK Jr. a position in his administration?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump doesn't win.
To resolve YES, an offer has to be made/confirmed after Trump has been declared the winner of the election.
|
2024-08-21T11:41:24
|
2024-11-20T12:26:10
|
2024-11-20T12:26:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2f44bl8qd0
|
Will Trump reach 50% before Harris?
|
Resolves YES if Trump reaches 50% on https://electionbettingodds.com/ before Harris does. Resolves NO otherwise.
[image]
|
2024-08-20T21:30:45
|
2024-08-21T14:49:17
|
2024-08-21T14:49:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-scowhmca51
|
Will JD Vance and Tim Walz shake hands in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-20T19:19:02
|
2024-10-01T20:13:18
|
2024-10-01T20:13:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-td29aqkuhw
|
Will Trump and Harris shake hands at their first debate?
|
This resolves "YES" if there is some video footage, a photo, or a reputable news report that confirms the two shook hands. Otherwise, this resolves "NO". If no debate occurs, this resolves "N/A".
|
2024-08-20T19:08:19
|
2024-09-10T18:19:43
|
2024-09-10T18:19:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qtza6yrdc8
|
Will Trump and Harris schedule a second debate?
|
Trump and Harris have agreed to a debate on 10 September. While both campaigns seem open to additional debates, none have been scheduled. Will a second debate be scheduled (with a date agreed to by both campaigns) before the election?
|
2024-08-20T19:03:56
|
2024-11-05T06:16:44
|
2024-11-05T06:16:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3uorpw2cjq
|
Will Travis Kelce endorse Kamala?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-20T19:03:56
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T21:10:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cq1hwpv4m6
|
Will Alaska pass the ballot measure to repeal ranked choice voting in 2024?
|
https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2024)
|
2024-08-20T18:51:04
|
2024-11-21T08:43:07
|
2024-11-21T08:43:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ovuo7vc4qi
|
Will a second election be held in Venezuela by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-20T16:12:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-11T09:56:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lu556e77v7
|
Will Beyonce attend the DNC?
|
The 2024 DNC will be held in Chicago, on August 19th - 22nd. This market resolves YES if there is a consensus of credible reporting that Beyonce physically attends any part of the convention in person. A virtual appearance—whether prerecorded or live—does not count for the purposes of this market.
|
2024-08-20T12:52:27
|
2024-08-23T05:15:27
|
2024-08-23T05:15:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-njn8sfpnd5
|
One month from today Will Kamala be above Donald trump on Polymarket?
|
resolves 50 if tie
|
2024-08-20T11:33:20
|
2024-09-19T20:59:00
|
2024-09-20T00:23:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pxcuduumho
|
Will RFK Jr. drop out and endorse Trump before September 1st, 2024?
|
This will resolve YES if RFK Jr. says he’s leaving the race, and encourages his voters to vote for Trump instead of him, regardless of whether his name appears on ballots.
Otherwise, resolves NO on September 1st, 2024.
|
2024-08-20T10:11:55
|
2024-08-23T12:34:34
|
2024-08-23T12:34:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9qgipekqk7
|
If RFK Jr. drops out, will Harris' lead in national polls (RCP) increase compared to two weeks later?
|
This question resolves as YES if the percentage difference between Harris and Trump increases 14 days after RFK Jr. drops out compared to the day RFK Jr. drops out. It also resolves YES if Harris loses her lead beforehand, but the difference becomes smaller within that week (e.g., Trump +1.0% on the drop-out date -> Trump +0.5% two weeks after the drop-out). If Harris loses her lead, I will rephrase the question.
This question resolves as NO if the percentage difference remains the same or if Trump gains more percent relative to Harris.
This question resolves as N/A if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not drop out and and continues spreading his conspiracy theories or if Trump or Harris drop out before RFK.
The official date of RFK Jr.'s drop-out will be used (not based on rumors, etc.). I will close this question four days after RFK officially drops out. In the event of his death, that date will be used instead.
Reference is RCP and I'll use the displayed average rounded on 0.1%.
[edit: Reference really is the linked two-way polling between Harris and Trump and NOT the 5-way/any other polling]
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-will-harris-lea)
|
2024-08-20T10:10:52
|
2024-08-27T12:35:00
|
2024-09-08T11:35:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ney976lft
|
Will Kamala Harris refer to herself as a Zionist before the election?
|
Joe Biden has referred to himself as a Zionist several times (eg, here: "I got in trouble many times for saying you don’t have to be a Jew to be a Zionist, and I am a Zionist. I make no apologies for that. That’s a reality"), but Kamala Harris has not self-identified as such, though she is known to hold by the basic tenets of Zionism. Will Harris unambiguously identify as a Zionist before the 2024 US presidential election?
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-08-20T06:27:15
|
2024-11-05T11:58:59
|
2024-11-05T11:58:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hxpqnqxmne
|
Will Belarus send troops to support Russia in border regions by end of 2024?
|
This market predicts whether Belarus will deploy military forces to Russian regions bordering Ukraine, such as Kursk, Belgorod, or Bryansk, to assist in combat operations against Ukrainian forces before the end of 2024. "Sending troops" refers to any official deployment of Belarusian military personnel to actively participate in military actions within these regions.
|
2024-08-20T03:24:17
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:17:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-scwqtnp4m7
|
Will Biden pardon Bob Menendez?
|
This market resolves to Yes if, by 11:59 PM ET on January 19, 2025, Bob Menendez receives either a full or partial presidential pardon or a commutation of his sentence from President Joe Biden, as officially documented by the White House or another authoritative government source.
- The action must be directly associated with President Joe Biden and must be publicly acknowledged or reported by a credible source, such as an official government announcement, press release, or coverage by major news outlets.
- Both full and partial pardons, as well as commutations (which reduce the severity of the sentence without absolving the underlying conviction), will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- If no pardon or commutation is granted by the specified date and time, the market will resolve to No.
Additional Notes:
- The market will not consider other forms of clemency, such as reprieves or remissions, unless they are explicitly described as a pardon or commutation by the President.
- If Joe Biden leaves office before January 19, 2025, for any reason, the market will resolve to No unless a pardon or commutation was granted before his departure.
|
2024-08-19T18:07:12
|
2025-01-20T10:40:46
|
2025-01-20T10:40:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xdgnl0alux
|
Will Kamala Harris cover AI policy during her acceptance speech?
|
On August 22, 2024, Kamala Harris will accept her nomination at the Democratic National Convention in a primetime speech.
Some believe that superintelligence will be ruling (or destroying) the world during her term, and complain that there is little discussion of AI policy.
This market will resolve to YES if Harris both gives a speech accepting her nomination on August 22, 2024, and she substantively discusses AI policy. "Substantive" discussion involves saying at least one sentence expressing a position that is in some way related to AI, or criticizing someone else's AI position. It is insufficient to only speak a phrase like "AI" or "robot" or "software" without any policy implications, or to publish the words in the planned remarks but not speak them.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
RELATED: @/SteveSokolowski/how-will-each-ai-system-evaluate-ka
|
2024-08-19T17:52:42
|
2024-08-23T05:09:12
|
2024-08-23T05:09:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4dxz1c7p8f
|
Will Toyota announce a sixth generation RAV4 in 2024?
|
The fifth generation was introduced for model year 2019 and has continued through the 2024 model year. Will Toyota announce a redesign before the end of the year (presumably for the 2025 model year) that becomes referred to as the sixth generation RAV4?
|
2024-08-19T13:04:26
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:42:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eyyflkxfqy
|
Will Taylor Swift publicly address the AI-generated Trump endorsement claims before election?
|
A weaker form of
(https://manifold.markets/embed/StephenBuggy/will-taylor-swift-sue-trump-for-usi)and
(https://manifold.markets/embed/shankypanky/will-taylor-swift-endorse-kamala-ha)This market will resolve "Yes" if Taylor Swift addresses the Trump Truth Social posts implying her endorsement of the Trump campaign. This resolves yes with the "Yes" resolution of either of the above markets. Unlike the above market, this will resolve "Yes" if Swift anti-endorses Trump rather than endorsing Kamala, makes a statement that the images are fake and/or AI generated, or other claims against the validity of Trump's post and/or campaign.
Note that this question resolves with the election, rather than the end of year like the "sue" question does.
To avoid bias in resolution, the question creator will only buy "Yes" shares in this market if it is below either of the two above questions, and will only sell "Yes" or buy "No" towards a zero position.
|
2024-08-19T12:48:05
|
2024-09-11T06:38:00
|
2024-09-11T06:38:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3rojas8pim
|
Will Biden get a name wrong during DNC speech?
|
Rules from Polymarket:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden calls someone by an incorrect name or references the wrong person at any point during his main keynote speech during the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Biden will be considered to have gotten a name wrong if he addresses or refers to an individual using a name that is not their correct or commonly known name. This includes, but is not limited to, using a wrong first or last name, a nickname which is not associated with the person, or any mispronunciation that significantly alters the intended name (e.g. when Biden referred to Rishi Sunak as ‘Mr. Sanook’ this would qualify for a “Yes” see:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qm9IjiwJxAo).
If Biden says a person's name correctly but associates it with incorrect events or a different identity, this will also be sufficient to resolve the market to "Yes" (e.g. Biden says Andrew Tate is the current President of France).
If Biden corrects himself after using an incorrect name, it will still qualify for a "Yes" resolution. However, if Biden begins correcting the name before he has completed saying the incorrect name, and completes a full pronunciation correctly, it will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If Biden does not give a keynote speech before the end of the DNC, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be video footage of the speech.
|
2024-08-19T11:34:28
|
2024-08-19T23:50:07
|
2024-08-19T23:50:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i9xpuiw83z
|
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
|
The 2024 DNC will be held in Chicago, on August 19th - 22nd. This market resolves YES if there is a consensus of credible reporting that Taylor Swift physically attends any part of the convention in person. A virtual appearance—whether prerecorded or live—does not count for the purposes of this market.
|
2024-08-19T09:02:40
|
2024-08-22T23:15:42
|
2024-08-22T23:15:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-apctkhziqc
|
Will Telegram be blocked in Russia by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-19T05:58:10
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T13:39:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ealyf5lsgi
|
Will Taylor Swift sue Trump for using AI to make a fake endorsement from her?
|
Trump appears to have used AI to make a fake endorsement from Taylor Swift. This likely breaches privacy and new AI generated content laws. If Swift takes legal action against Trump for this act then it resolves yes.
https://x.com/PopBase/status/1825352918104445087?t=UWpDq_97ccBFmU9GewFXfA&s=19
[image]
|
2024-08-19T04:32:10
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T04:09:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wahzlexd3g
|
Will X become inaccessible in Brazil due to a court order in August?
|
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1824839784852013125
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/08/17/x-brazil-musk-moraes-judge/
Elon has claimed that Brazil's Supreme Court judge Alexandre de Moraes has made numerous censorship orders, which X refused to follow. Following that, de Moraes supposedly ordered the Supreme Court to threaten X employees with judicial retaliation.
In response, Elon has decided to close the X offices in Brazil, meaning that the company will have no judicial representation in Brazil through a corporate entity, although the service will remain accessible unless blocked.
There is no specific law in Brazil (as far as I understand - IANAL) that requires social networks available in Brazil to have a Brazilian corporate entity representing them, but Brazilian lawmakers and court officials seem quite dissatisfied with this.
This market will resolve YES if, at any moment in the month of August 2024, X becomes inaccessible to Brazilian IPs due to a court order.
This market will be resolved based on Brasília time (GMT-3), so if X first becomes unavailable in Brazil between now and 2024-09-01 02:59:59 GMT this will resolve YES. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
|
2024-08-18T18:50:16
|
2024-08-30T20:53:48
|
2024-08-30T20:53:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r53b7uuyjq
|
Will Harris lead in the 538 election forecast on September 30th?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
If it is not released by September 30th, it will resolve as soon as it is released.
|
2024-08-18T10:08:54
|
2024-09-22T20:59:00
|
2024-09-30T11:03:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3f186v23ca
|
GPT-5 class models are real, will be significantly better than GPT-4, and are coming by the end of the year.
|
I’m going to do my best to make this rigorous. This one is a bit fuzzy but it’s what I want to know the answer to.
This will resolve to yes if:
by the end of the day on 12/31/2024
a new class of ai model is released by anyone (not just OpenAI). The model must be in wide availability. Some gates are acceptable (e.g., paid users only, 10% of users), but it cannot be available to selected AI influencers.
that is a step change better in performance. For clarity: GPT-4 was a step change better than 3/3.5 and would qualify; Claude 3.5/GPT 4o are narrowly better than GPT-4 and would not. I will use my best judgement to resolve this honestly using all inputs available (benchmarks, test cases, user reports, reviews by expert users).
Names don’t matter here. It could be called GPT-1 but if it’s obviously way better than GPT-4/Claude 3.5, then the market resolves to yes.
Given the ambiguity here, I will not be betting on this market.
|
2024-08-18T07:14:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T15:15:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1i539m9xtj
|
Will the new 538 forecast come out before the end of August?
|
August 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
|
2024-08-17T23:13:02
|
2024-08-23T09:33:41
|
2024-08-23T09:33:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4spka4fvem
|
Will any Georgia county fail to certify its 2024 presidential election results by the deadline?
|
In August 2024, the Georgia State Election Board passed a controversial rule requiring counties to conduct a “reasonable inquiry” into vote totals before certifying election results. They “failed to define what constitutes a 'reasonable inquiry' and suggested [...] that such inquiries could justify failing to certify by that date (or any specific date).”
In addition, under Georgia’s SB202 law, the state election board has new powers to take over election administration in up to four counties it deems "underperforming," possibly stripping some county election boards of their power to certify elections and giving the state board discretion on whether to do so.
The deadline to certify county election results is November 13 at 5 pm (local time) according to the Secretary of State's website. Failing to certify results by that date could lead to legal challenges and political controversy.
Resolution Criteria:
This question will resolve to “YES” if any Georgia county fails to certify its 2024 general presidential election results by the state’s certification deadline, regardless of whether certification occurs later due to legal or administrative actions. Otherwise, it will resolve "NO".
The resolution will be based on credible news reports.
|
2024-08-17T19:25:39
|
2024-11-12T18:03:25
|
2024-11-12T18:03:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s2fn8fb1u8
|
Will the Unemployment Rate (U3) exceed 4.2 percent in the August 2024 BLS Jobs Report? (Seasonally Adjusted)
|
On September 6, will the seasonally adjusted U3 employment rate exceed 4.2 percent? Will use the rounded headline number. Will resolve yes when it equals 4.3 percent or above.
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.toc.htm
|
2024-08-17T17:22:55
|
2024-09-06T05:30:28
|
2024-09-06T05:30:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p2a5j4t7q8
|
Will the 2024 presidential election feature an upset in a state?
|
Define an upset to be any one of the following:
Kamala Harris* loses a state colored blue below (or loses DC)
Donald Trump* loses a state colored red below
Will there be an upset in the 2024 presidential election?
* If Harris or Trump gets replaced, this question will instead be about whoever the new Democratic / Republican nominee is.
(The winner of a state is the person who gets the most votes in that state.)
[image]
|
2024-08-17T10:21:50
|
2024-11-06T15:58:44
|
2024-11-06T15:58:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-94ymeebq9q
|
[Subsidized 10K] Will all seven states (NC, GA, PA, MI, WI, AZ, NV) swing blue in November?
|
Clarifying resolution criteria:
[YES] Dems wins a plurality of votes in the Presidential election in all seven states listed.
[NO] One or more of the seven states is won by the Republican candidate.
While the suggested criteria of the change in the margin between the two major parties is really intriguing, Dems won 6 of the 7 states in 2020. IMO, for those 6, it would only mean an increased margin which is not a terribly impactful result and would reduce the poll to shifting margins in NC. I’m really trying to gauge the public sentiment as we approach Election Day about the composite of these 7 states that will determine the overall outcome.
|
2024-08-17T05:35:23
|
2024-11-05T15:02:09
|
2024-11-06T03:47:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ovna88jeg0
|
Will Russia nuke Kursk oblasť by the end of 2024?
|
https://youtu.be/9TubZEyB2rk?si=cGCTMKsJsW75Lfnn If the video is real, Prigozhin predicted that Russia can strike its own territory.
|
2024-08-17T05:19:02
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:34:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s215y9fn16
|
Will Nate Silver call the 2024 election on election night?
|
Must be called by 4 am ET after the election (technically Wednesday morning)
A tweet, interview, blog post - anything that is verified from Nate will count (e.g., I’ve seen enough)
|
2024-08-17T05:18:33
|
2024-11-06T00:42:47
|
2024-11-06T00:42:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-srxr8bksi
|
Will the AP call the 2024 election on election night?
|
Presidential election must be called by 4 am ET
|
2024-08-17T05:17:22
|
2024-11-06T01:01:09
|
2024-11-06T01:01:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5cyxrxp8of
|
Will there be a tape or hot mic with Donald Trump saying a hard R before Election Day 2024?
|
Will there be a tape or hot mic released of Donald Trump saying a hard R between now and Election Day? Tape or hot mic can have been recorded at any time, just released publicly or leaked before Election Day.
Judging authenticity of such a tape is always difficult - if there’s a tape with multiple people claiming that it’s authentic, and somehow verified as authentic, this market would resolve yes.
If there is a tape of dubious origin with no really way to verify, I don’t think I would count that as a verified hot mic or tape.
|
2024-08-16T15:27:13
|
2024-11-05T06:31:10
|
2024-11-05T06:31:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1qriku6ak2
|
Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year?
|
Will a La Liga regular season match be played in the United States this year?
Will be marked as YES if there is a regular season match played in the US by the end of the year.
Link: https://www.goal.com/en/lists/barcelona-atletico-madrid-miami-la-liga-chief-javier-tebas-in-us/bltd5bcba3d46adc27c#cs6922245bebccf624
Link: https://x.com/ReshadFCB/status/1824033953063329933
|
2024-08-16T07:09:57
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:02:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x5p66maofg
|
Will Kamala Harris still be alive by November 5?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-16T06:20:19
|
2024-11-05T08:21:04
|
2024-11-05T08:21:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sll0lpzoho
|
Will Anthropic publicly endorse or support SB 1047?
|
Resolves YES if Anthropic publicly and clearly endorses or supports SB 1047.
Resolves NO if they do not, no matter what they do in private, and the bill is signed or vetoed by Newsom, or the legislature's session ends.
|
2024-08-16T05:50:31
|
2024-08-31T20:59:00
|
2024-09-01T04:45:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zbbc6ylmhm
|
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night?
|
Presidential election must be called by 4 am ET
|
2024-08-16T01:30:17
|
2024-11-05T22:52:19
|
2024-11-05T22:52:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kvo6a8p5pk
|
Will sentencing for Trump’s New York hush money criminal case happen as scheduled on Sept. 18?
|
Will resolve YES if sentencing happens on Sept 18th 2024. Otherwise it will resolve NO
|
2024-08-15T17:43:41
|
2024-09-06T14:59:53
|
2024-09-06T14:59:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rpfg565u4d
|
If Iran 🇮🇷 will not retaliate against Israel 🇮🇱, will it be because of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire before 23rd August?
|
Scenario # 1
➡️Israel - Hamas reach a ceasefire deal
➡️Iran does not retaliate
Resolution - Yes ✅
Scenario # 2
➡️ No ceasefire deal
➡️ Iran Retaliates
Resolution - No ❌
Scenario # 3
➡️ No Ceasefire deal
➡️ Iran still doesn't retaliate.
Resolution - No ❌
Scenario # 4 (unlikely)
➡️ Ceasefire reached
➡️ Iran retaliates anyway
Resolution - No ❌
|
2024-08-15T17:20:34
|
2024-08-22T11:59:00
|
2024-08-22T12:04:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-43c5jhxmkt
|
Will the NYT run a front-page headline questioning Trump's mental fitness before the election?
|
This question resolves YES if a headline on the front page of the New York Times questions Trump's mental fitness after August 15 and before the election. This includes headlines referring to other people's questions. References to dementia, "slowing," or other indirect challenges to his mental health will also count. Mere references to his age, though, will not.
The resolution to this market is likely to be subjective. I will not bet in it.
|
2024-08-15T14:32:13
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-05T22:55:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qbqv6arcr7
|
Will Taylor Swift introduce Kamala Harris at an event before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-15T13:44:22
|
2024-11-05T08:33:59
|
2024-11-05T08:33:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bm3fndfpu8
|
Will Tim Walz have positive favorability on the election night?
|
It will resolve according to 538: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/tim-walz/
If the graph shows his favorability to be 0.0 or higher for November 5th 2024, it will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Currently he is +4.7 and there is ~30% undecided.
|
2024-08-15T13:35:58
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-06T13:50:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-33lldnbyqw
|
GPT-5 announced today?
|
https://x.com/iruletheworldmo/status/1824131182004670604
Any time in next 24 hours counts
Official announcement/release from OpenAI
|
2024-08-15T13:26:03
|
2024-08-16T13:59:00
|
2024-08-16T14:11:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ftb08gdk2k
|
Will there be an Mpox pandemic in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if there is a full or partial lockdown in at least 100 countries due to Mpox or if the WHO declares an Mpox pandemic
|
2024-08-15T13:09:47
|
2025-01-01T10:07:51
|
2025-01-01T10:07:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0kgn9jha4x
|
Will Apple Announce a smart ring in 2024
|
Resolves YES if apple announces a wearable ring that has any kind of electronic capabilities.
|
2024-08-15T12:55:54
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:33:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9tdclkisr1
|
Will there be at least 100 total deaths in the US from Monkeypox by the end of 2024?
|
Will resolve based off https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/response/2022/index.html (or an equivalent page if the CDC's dashboard for monkeypox moves to another URL).
Currently it shows 32,063 cases and 58 deaths in the US since the start of the outbreak. If on December 31st the dashboard reports at least 100 deaths (equivalent to 42 additional deaths happening between now and the end of the year), this will resolve to Yes. Otherwise will resolve to No.
Note that the dashboard shows the cumulative deaths count since the start of the monkeypox outbreak and this is what the market will resolve on.
|
2024-08-15T12:10:49
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:39:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xm88fprspw
|
If RFK Jr. drops out, will Harris' lead in national polls (RCP) increase one week later?
|
This question resolves as YES if the percentage difference between Harris and Trump increases 7 days after RFK Jr. drops out compared to the day RFK Jr. drops out. It also resolves YES if Harris loses her lead beforehand, but the difference becomes smaller within that week (e.g., Trump +1.0% on the drop-out date -> Trump +0.5% one week after the drop-out). If Harris loses her lead, I will rephrase the question.
This question resolves as NO if the percentage difference remains the same or if Trump gains more percent relative to Harris.
This question resolves as N/A if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. does not drop out and and continues spreading his conspiracy theories or if Trump or Harris drop out before RFK.
The official date of RFK Jr.'s drop-out will be used (not based on rumors, etc.). I will close this question two days after RFK officially drops out. In the event of his death, that date will be used instead.
Reference is RCP and I'll use the displayed average rounded on 0.1%.
[edit: Reference really is the linked two-way polling between Harris and Trump and NOT the 5-way/any other polling]
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/if-rfk-jr-drops-out-will-harriss-le)
|
2024-08-15T10:51:12
|
2024-08-27T00:35:00
|
2024-09-02T01:08:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7f18niz1h2
|
Will Donald Trump replace his campaign managers before the election?
|
Trump's campaign is currently co-managed by Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles. This market resolves YES if there is convincing evidence that one or both are replaced before the election.
The resolution to this market may be subjective, such as if there are reports that one of the managers has been sidelined but the campaign leaves them nominally in place. I will not bet in this market.
|
2024-08-15T09:36:12
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-05T22:55:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9mgaoj4tm0
|
Will Manchester City top the Premier League table on October 1?
|
https://www.premierleague.com/tables
|
2024-08-15T09:22:07
|
2024-09-30T06:51:49
|
2024-09-30T06:51:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6z4vq6kylm
|
Will Vance and Walz shake hands at the VP debate?
|
The VP debate has been scheduled for Oct 1. Will Vance and Walz shake publicly shake hands at the debate?
This resolves "YES" if there is some video footage, a photo, or a reputable news report that confirms the two shook hands. Otherwise, this resolves "NO". If no debate occurs, this resolves "N/A".
|
2024-08-15T07:27:15
|
2024-10-01T19:57:17
|
2024-10-01T19:57:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kezteol9qg
|
Will an Iranian proxy launch an attack on Israel without Iranian involvement before September 1st, 2024?
|
For this question, Iranian proxies are primarily Hezbollah, Houthis, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Iraqi factions, Syrian factions. See below for a CFR list I think is reasonable to use for this question.
For this question, I do NOT include Hamas.
[image]
|
2024-08-14T17:52:17
|
2024-08-31T21:26:18
|
2024-08-31T21:26:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-084hn7jra5
|
Will there be a free website that converts names to social security numbers by end of year?
|
Resolves YES if in the comments someone (including myself) provides a link to a site where you can enter the legal name of a US citizen and it gives you back their social security number. Must work and be correct for >50% of the people I test it on.
Site can be clearnet or onion, but if clearnet it must be accessible through Mullvad VPN. Requiring an email is fine, but if it requires a phone number or any form of identification or payment it is disqualified. Allowing a limited number of searches is fine, as long as I'm able to do at least a handful.
|
2024-08-14T13:06:39
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-06T01:50:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-imktc6lkon
|
Will RFK Jr. drop out and endorse Trump before Nov 6, 2024?
|
There has been press speculation about this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/07/22/rfk-jr-floated-job-trump-white-house-he-weighed-endorsing-trump/
This will resolve “yes” if RFK Jr. says he’s leaving the race, and encourages his voters to vote for Trump instead of him, regardless of whether his name appears on ballots.
|
2024-08-14T11:48:12
|
2024-08-23T12:34:18
|
2024-08-23T12:34:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aa27gyuryx
|
Will the Trump campaign leaks be published?
|
See this: https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/10/trump-campaign-hack-00173503
Or this: https://www.washingtonpost.com/style/media/2024/08/13/iran-email-hack-republicans-media-response/
This resolves YES if the Trump campaign leaks are published by a news outlet by the election.
If a different set of Trump campaign materials are later hacked/leaked and published, this will NOT resolve YES. It has to be the set of materials discussed publicly and in the news at the time of market creation (or any part of this set of materials).
If the campaign leaks are posted on some inaccessible torrent site or dark web thing or something like this, this will resolve NO. It has to be "published", although I will have a broad interpretation to what published means. It does not have to be in print, for example. Being posted on some sketchy website would likely still count.
If inconsequential or minor details from this leak are published online, this will also NOT cause a YES resolution. For instance, if it's published that a particular email is in the leak and the name of the sender is published, that would not be adequate. Actual substantial portions of the leaked documents must be published online, even if it's just, say, 10% of the leaked materials.
Edge cases and grey areas seem very possible in this market, so I will not bet in this market. I will try to avoid N/A resolution, and may instead resolve to a PROB/PERCENT, even if that seems counter-intuitive. I may consult with admins / mods / superusers on this site to come to a fair probability.
The close date for this market may be extended if it is unclear if the leaks have been published by the election, but will not be extended to see if they are published after the election.
|
2024-08-14T11:42:31
|
2024-09-27T11:10:22
|
2024-09-27T11:10:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-esrrc33j0z
|
Will Taylor Swift attend the DNC?
|
The 2024 DNC will be held in Chicago, on August 19th - 22nd. This market resolves YES if there is a consensus of credible reporting that Taylor Swift physically attends any part of the convention in person. A virtual appearance—whether prerecorded or live—does not count for the purposes of this market. This market will close before the DNC officially begins.
|
2024-08-14T08:56:07
|
2024-08-19T06:59:00
|
2024-08-22T22:49:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f0h4zy9unc
|
Will the UK descend in to civil war before 2025?
|
Inspired by Elon’s tweet here: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1819933223536742771?s=46&t=vV_dpuJm1mp8COD4AIOCjg
Resolves to true if there is civil war in the UK before 2025, defined as “a war between organized groups within the same state.”
|
2024-08-13T15:24:41
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:28:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qnmuia61d0
|
Will the US use lethal weaponry to directly help Israel counter an attack on Israel before October 1, 2024?
|
This resolves as YES - ONLY if US forces themselves deploy lethal weaponry during an attack on Israel to help Israel counter an attack.
This does NOT refer to American-made weaponry used by another nation.
The American use of weapons does NOT have to be lethal; by lethal weaponry, I only mean to distinguish between, say, a cyberattack, targeting information, etc.
The attack does NOT have to be by any particular nation or organization, like Iran or Hezbollah.
|
2024-08-13T13:48:21
|
2024-10-01T21:59:00
|
2024-10-08T16:09:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s1yx5ypk0p
|
Will Kamala Harris accept Elon Musk's invitation to have a chat on X before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-13T11:59:11
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-15T02:59:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-usl8gdeztx
|
Will Iran 🇮🇷 attack Israel 🇮🇱 directly before 17th August 2024?
|
Market close time is 16th August 2024 11:59 pm PKT
|
2024-08-13T11:57:44
|
2024-08-16T11:59:00
|
2024-08-16T16:16:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hhn7mu7vla
|
Will "Alien: Romulus" gross more (worldwide) than than the average of "Prometheus" & "Alien: Covenant"? (>$322M)
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo
"Prometheus" (2012) grossed $403,354,469.
"Alien: Covenant" (2017) grossed $240,891,763.
Thus, the average of their worldwide gross is $322,123,116.
This market resolves YES if "Alien: Romulus" (2024) grosses >$322,123,116 (worldwide) within 2 months of release (i.e. October 16th).
I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined ("WORLDWIDE", on the main page).
If the result seems mathematically certain, I reserve the right to resolve the market early.
|
2024-08-13T09:06:00
|
2024-09-15T18:19:35
|
2024-09-15T18:19:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8rl8bxg21b
|
Will "Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >75%?
|
"Beetlejuice Beetlejuice" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is >75%, one week after release (September 13th).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal), and this is a strict inequality.
For example, the original "Beetlejuice" (1998) currently has a Tomatometer of 86%. This is the equivalent score I will use.
|
2024-08-13T07:39:24
|
2024-09-13T08:30:22
|
2024-09-13T08:30:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eo8z6inhsv
|
Will Kamala Harris join a twitter (X) space with Elon Musk before the end of 2024?
|
[image]will resolve YES if Kamala Harris joins a twitter/ X space with Elon Musk using @VP or @KamalaHarris or another known account she could have access to during the space, by the end of December 31st 2024.
resolves NO on that date otherwise.
comment any questions or news you have! 💙
|
2024-08-12T21:47:17
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-03-09T13:41:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jo4lcifaad
|
Will there be evidence of a DDoS attack on the Trump/Elon Twitter Space?
|
[tweet]Will public evidence emerge to support this, within the next 30 days?
Resolves based on a consensus of credible reporting on the topic. I'll do my best to judge impartially, and will not bet on this market. Musk, Trump, and official X.com announcements will not be included. Reports of the form "[entity] alleges..." will also not be included. Data and evidence released by Twitter / X may be included, if reported on by external, credible sources.
This is specifically about a DDoS attack, as distinct from other forms of attacks or hacks. Mere server overloads or any form of "can't keep up with legitimate requests" are not included.
Suggestions for improvement on resolution criteria are most welcome.
|
2024-08-12T18:02:50
|
2024-09-11T22:59:00
|
2024-09-12T06:57:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xlpbfcjauw
|
Will Donald Trump be the TIME 2024 Person of the Year?
|
Please note: All definitions and rules outlined by the market creator (@Lion) apply solely to the Mana version of this question. I can only address questions related to the Mana version. For questions about the Sweepstakes market, please contact Manifold Markets directly.
The Mana version will be resolved according to the following rules. If you have any questions or if any resolution criteria or edge cases are unclear, please ask before trading. Otherwise, the Mana version will be resolved based on my judgement. Note that the Mana version may resolve differently from the Sweepstakes version.
Donald J. Trump must be directly named as the Person of the Year for this market to resolve as YES. For example, if TIME Magazine’s 2024 Person of the Year is named as "Donald J. Trump," "Donald J. Trump and J.D. Vance," "Donald J. Trump and The Grand Old Party," or "Donald J. Trump and Elon Musk," this market will resolve as YES. However, if the Person of the Year is identified as a group or entity that does not directly name Trump, such as "All Americans" or "The Grand Old Party," this market will resolve as NO.
This question specifically pertains to Donald John Trump, born on June 14, 1946, the 45th President of the United States and winner of the 2024 US election. If another person, such as Donald Trump Jr., is named without the explicit inclusion of Donald J. Trump, the market will resolve as NO. (“Donald Trump and Donald Trump Jr.” would still resolve as YES)
The close date for this market will be adjusted to the evening before TIME Magazine announces the Person of the Year (POTY). Liquidity might be reduced earlier.
Links:
TIME's website
Past winners (Wikipedia)
Manifold TIME PotY Dashboard
|
2024-08-12T13:55:03
|
2024-12-11T14:59:00
|
2024-12-12T06:34:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d9njw2l46e
|
Will Trump regularly tweet until the election?
|
At least 2 tweets/spaces/replies/retweets per week, resetting on every Monday. The market includes the week of election day. Likes or other non-posts do not count.
Only the realDonaldTrump or its successor account counts as Trump for this question.
|
2024-08-12T11:09:48
|
2024-11-04T16:09:42
|
2024-11-04T16:09:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-skuoqijps1
|
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 US Presidential election in Wisconsin be greater than 1%?
|
Resolves YES if the margin of victory in the 2024 US Presidential election in Wisconsin as declared by the Wisconsin secretary of state/credible news sources is greater than 1%, NO if not, and N/A if the election does not happen or is voided for whatever reason. The final resolution will be done after all recounts and legal challenges have been exhausted
For reference:
Margin (partisan lean)
2020: Biden +0.63 (R +3.87)
2016: Trump +0.77 (R +2.87)
2012: Obama +6.94 (D +3.04)
2008: Obama +13.91 (D +6.71)
2004: Kerry +0.38 (D +2.78)
2000: Gore +0.22 (R +0.28)
|
2024-08-12T10:47:10
|
2024-12-08T21:22:58
|
2024-12-08T21:22:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mpcdzvf06z
|
Will RFK Jr. drop out before election day?
|
This question resolves YES if before November 5th 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.
An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.
|
2024-08-12T07:09:16
|
2024-08-23T12:57:16
|
2024-08-23T12:57:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xpnkwvm9kr
|
Will Donald Trump express support for the 'nuclear option" of breaking legislative filibuster, before September 2024?
|
Context: "Kamala Harris privately vented about Biden's refusal to publicly support a change to the Senate rules to pass voting-rights protections, book says" - Business Insider, 2022
More Context: "Kamala Harris says she would eliminate the filibuster to pass Green New Deal" - CNN, 2019
This question resolves YES if between market creation and market close (EOD August 31st 2024) Donald Trump publicly and explicitly expresses support for the idea of the US Senate breaking the legislative filibuster.
In any cases of ambiguity, this market will refer to the relevant Wikipedia entry to arbitrate the resolution.
See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-the-us-senate-use-the-nuclear
|
2024-08-12T06:26:08
|
2024-08-31T20:59:00
|
2024-09-02T18:10:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1azik5wjr6
|
Will Trump pass Harris within 72 hours after Trump and Elon interview is aired?
|
According to FiveThirtyEight
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
|
2024-08-12T04:52:58
|
2024-08-15T17:29:57
|
2024-08-16T01:46:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aide167wgb
|
Will Donald Trump gain in betting markets after the first debate?
|
Election Betting Odds (https://electionbettingodds.com/President2024_week.html) will be used to determine whether Donald Trump's win probability has increased.
The difference in his win probability 24 hours after the first debate will be compared to his probability on the day of the first debate, just before it starts.
|
2024-08-12T02:13:59
|
2024-09-11T23:00:05
|
2024-09-11T23:00:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wcz0gdng3y
|
Will there be a Secretary of Education in the next administration?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-11T19:50:31
|
2025-03-06T14:00:09
|
2025-03-06T14:00:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-by8tt2dz89
|
By the end of 2024, will Ukraine still hold any of the Russian territory it currently holds?
|
According to ISW or similar
[tweet]Edit: To address a potential edge case, this still resolves YES if Ukraine gets pushed back to the border but then regains some ground before the end of the year.
|
2024-08-11T19:15:13
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:35:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yt2bmirad7
|
Will Trump sell 50% or more of his Truth Social $DJT shares by the end of 2024?
|
He is unable to sell them until September.
Resolves yes if this is disclosed in the end of quarter filings
|
2024-08-11T16:22:57
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T17:20:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-szr361vzdf
|
Will RFK Jr. get any electoral college votes?
|
Popular vote... shmopular vote! It's all about the Electoral College!
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. get any electoral college votes for president of the United States?
Obviously if he wins a state, he will get electoral college votes; but there are other ways he may get a vote or two. For example, some states are not winner take all.
|
2024-08-11T13:04:49
|
2025-01-02T21:40:05
|
2025-01-02T21:40:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nc7i19el7y
|
Will Nicolas Maduro accept asylum in the US by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-11T12:10:25
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-13T06:26:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hkhqt307o7
|
Will Kamala Harris give an interview by end of month?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-11T11:31:54
|
2024-08-29T19:54:38
|
2024-08-29T19:54:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ge8cln68zl
|
Will Russia successfully remove Ukrainian troops from Kursk region by end of year?
|
Resolves YES if Ukraine controls <10 km² of Kursk oblast for 1 week continuously.
Resolution source will be https://x.com/Pouletvolant3 or consensus of other credible mappers.
[image]Current state as of Aug 11
Update 2024-27-12 (PST): - The required 1-week continuous control by Ukraine does not need to occur before the end of the year. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-08-11T02:52:15
|
2024-12-31T08:04:43
|
2024-12-31T08:04:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d4xnwzystd
|
Will we get GPT-4o Large in 3 days? [OpenAI]
|
Context: Mysterious https://x.com/iruletheworldmo posted on GitHub implying a gpt-4o-large-2024-08-13 will be released. Will it happen?
Resolves NO end of day August 14th if nothing is released.
[image]
|
2024-08-10T12:38:43
|
2024-08-14T20:59:00
|
2024-08-15T00:18:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e1k6k2md6w
|
Will Iran 🇮🇷 attack Israel 🇮🇱 in the next 72 hours?
|
72 hours expire on 11:59 pm on August 13th PKT
|
2024-08-10T06:49:28
|
2024-08-13T11:59:00
|
2024-08-13T12:38:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ay5io4219r
|
Will any significant ticket (RFK/Trump/Harris+VPs) change before election day?
|
This question resolves as NO on November 5th at 12:00 AM PT, or earlier if someone announces they are dropping out (YES).
The question resolves as YES if someone dies or announces they will not be the (VP) candidate (even after the election). (E.g., they remain the official candidate on election day but officially leave the position on November 6th) Even if the ticket does not officially change until after the election, the question still resolves as YES.
This question resolves as NO if all tickets remain as follows:
Donald Trump and J.D. Vance
Kamala Harris and Tim Walz
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Nicole Shanahan
|
2024-08-10T05:45:10
|
2024-08-23T12:35:35
|
2024-08-23T12:35:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w63n87cc6u
|
Trump to pass Harris?
|
Resolves YES if Trump is listed as more likely to win than Harris at any point from now until the beginning of election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
|
2024-08-10T05:18:35
|
2024-08-20T18:53:30
|
2024-08-20T19:00:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-amupippqva
|
Bitcoin $75K in 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $75,000 USD at any point in 2024, according to the data on blockchain.info. If it does not reach $75,000 during 2024, it will resolve to "No."
|
2024-08-09T22:48:24
|
2024-11-05T22:22:55
|
2024-11-05T22:22:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.