id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-w8mlkopsdq
|
Will Kamala's odds of winning increase from 8/9 to 8/16 according to Nate Silver's model?
|
Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >53.8% on Friday August 16th at 11:59 PM PT. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
|
2024-08-09T20:53:32
|
2024-08-16T23:59:00
|
2024-08-17T00:06:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6u3b3ceyge
|
Will Tim Walz be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?
|
Resolves with story of accusation in mainstream print or broadcast media.
|
2024-08-09T18:50:46
|
2024-10-15T10:25:02
|
2024-10-15T10:25:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-47h436gnl4
|
Will the TOP PRICE of BITCOIN in this bull run be 96420 USD?
|
The top of this bull run is 96420 USD?
|
2024-08-09T16:48:12
|
2024-11-20T21:09:18
|
2024-11-20T21:09:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l5fsts2olk
|
Will Nikki Haley replace Donald Trump on the GOP ticket before the November 2024 election?
|
What if Donald Trump decides he can't win? Will he drop off the ticket and make a deal with the GOP not to indict him? What would GOP do then? How likely would it be to replace Trump with Haley? Wild speculation obviously, but you never know!
|
2024-08-09T14:59:09
|
2024-11-05T10:33:09
|
2024-11-05T10:33:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vwcgxj4s5t
|
Will anyone find a universal jailbreak in the system Anthropic was testing on (8/9/24) within 3 months?
|
Resolves to YES if a universal jailbreak is found for that system by that time.
Resolves to NO if it hasn't been by 11/10/24.
See: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369
Anthropic / Sam Bowman's decision will determine the outcome. If I don't have an official answer I'll use best knowledge. See the thread for description of what would or would not count, and note we may hold this for a bit after 11/24 if we can't get confirmation on the answer.
(Note: This was originally 6 months but we clarified it to 3 after Sam suggested that was better, since no one had traded yet)
|
2024-08-09T10:07:48
|
2025-02-09T20:59:00
|
2025-02-10T04:51:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4auc6pg06l
|
[Metaculus] Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier A...d before October 1, 2024?
|
Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26962/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves as Yes if SB 1047 is passed by the California state legislature and signed by the Governor into law before October 1, 2024. If this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-08-09T07:34:52
|
2024-10-01T07:51:27
|
2024-10-01T07:51:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kfdddjhjn0
|
[Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
|
Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26938/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.
If no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-08-09T07:34:49
|
2024-10-01T07:51:24
|
2024-10-01T07:51:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1oju713tiz
|
Will either major party change their ticket in any way?
|
The Democratic ticket is set to be Harris/Walz, while the Republican ticket is Trump/Vance. Resolves YES if either of these changes for any reason. Resolves NO if no such change has been made and the election has passed.
|
2024-08-09T06:51:18
|
2024-11-05T04:26:36
|
2024-11-06T04:59:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-huq1sfos2l
|
Will a magnitude 8 earthquake hit Japan this month?
|
Resolves as Yes if, between the dates of August 9-31, 2024 (inclusive of those end dates), Japan Standard Time, an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or higher (as rounded to the nearest tenth of a point) occurs with an epicenter less than 100 miles from any point in Japan, as reported no later than September 1, 2024 (JST) at earthquake.usgs.gov.
|
2024-08-09T05:34:26
|
2024-08-31T19:30:44
|
2024-08-31T19:30:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ki4usmxo2r
|
Trump says he wants to do 3 debates in September. Will it actually happen?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-08T16:22:08
|
2024-10-01T20:59:00
|
2024-10-02T04:37:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2m6vkinuye
|
Will any presidential candidate be shot at or assassinated before the end of the election? (Attempted or successful)
|
Yes, this is a dark question, and although no one should wish that on anyone… as an outsider to the US, it’s not unlikely given the tense political climate and the American aptitude towards firearms or other weapon's.
|
2024-08-08T14:08:00
|
2024-09-16T15:12:21
|
2024-09-16T15:12:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9gqz2o59g1
|
Will "Alien: Romulus" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >75%?
|
"Alien: Romulus" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is >75%, one week after release (August 23rd).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal), and this is a strict inequality.
For example, "Alien: Covenant" (2017) currently has a Tomatometer of 65%. This is the equivalent score I will use.
|
2024-08-08T13:45:50
|
2024-08-23T08:17:42
|
2024-08-23T08:17:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-739g5p16up
|
Will the US permit Ukraine to strike into Russia before 2025
|
As far as I can tell, Ukraine have been given vague permissions but still aren't allowed to strike air bases. The question is whether they get some kind of minimal viable permission.
Feel free to discuss in the comments to help us figure out what the resolution is.
Currently I'm gonna say, "are they allowed to strike military planes and airbases anywhere in russia."
|
2024-08-08T13:07:43
|
2024-12-06T14:44:20
|
2024-12-06T14:44:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-blja02o9uy
|
2024 July hottest on record? [Polymarket clone]
|
https://polymarket.com/event/2024-july-hottest-on-record?tid=1723139366062
clone of the polymarket, resolves identically
|
2024-08-08T11:13:33
|
2024-08-09T10:21:21
|
2024-08-09T10:21:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ovilyci3c4
|
Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024?
|
This poll resolves true if Keir Starmer refers to any of the views of any anti-immigration protestor groups/ gatherings, including the so called “far right” as “legitimate” or “genuine”, in these terms. These terms must be used as a genuine assertion, for example it does not count if they are used in a statement such as “Many of the protestors believe that they have legitimate / genuine concerns”.
To classify, the terms must be used in clear reference to a group who has protested that is on the anti-immigration side. This includes peaceful protest.
Examples of what would not be a resolution:
Stating that there are “legitimate” or “genuine” concerns as a blanket statement that isn’t directed at protestors specifically (it does not need to be a single group of protestors, but it cannot be a statement generally saying that there are legitimate concerns about migration across the country, for example).
Referring to any group that is not calling for reduced migration in this way
I will also accept these terms as equivalents for a resolution:
“Reasonable” concerns
“Understandable” concerns
“Fair” concerns
I will accept other terms that have a meaning identical to any of these words or these words in combination, but it must be a completely identical meaning.
|
2024-08-08T09:58:31
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:01:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bfn9epzf6e
|
[Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
|
Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26526/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.
The state of blocking will be checked by entering the query youtube.com in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official blocklist site and submitting the form.
If the message returned is: "доступ ограничивается к странице" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as Yes.
If the message returned is: "По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is not included in the blocklist and this question resolves as No.
This question also resolves as Yes if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to credible sources.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-08-08T07:33:05
|
2024-10-02T07:53:36
|
2024-10-02T07:53:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tbi31olhi2
|
Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month?
|
Resolves YES if at any point in time, Ukraine takes control of the Kurs Nuclear Power Plant, by the end of August 31, 2024 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
|
2024-08-08T05:21:19
|
2024-08-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-31T15:04:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gyfuu4ytpa
|
Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 61.2% before November 2024?
|
If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 61.2% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 61.2%, then this will resolve NO.
Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 61.2 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market.
related markets:
[markets]comment any questions or news you have!
|
2024-08-07T21:35:45
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:41:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p1bqca3lmh
|
Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 68.5% (Trump's Peak) before November 2024?
|
If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 68.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 68.5%, then this will resolve NO.
Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 68.5 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market.
related markets:
[markets]
|
2024-08-07T19:54:33
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:42:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aqe9fpc1gm
|
Will OpenAI announce or release something related to Project Strawberry (Q*) in the next 72 hours?
|
The Twitter/X account of iruletheworldmo claims that OpenAI is going to release something related to Project Strawberry in the next few hours.
[tweet]This is likely just a shitposting account, but I still find it funny to create a market about this.
Resolves as YES:
OpenAI announces or releases anything related to Project Strawberry (Q*) within the time frame from 16:30 PDT August 7 to 16:30 PDT August 10 (72 hours). This must be from official sources (like a blog post, Sam Altman, or similar).
If something is released within this time window but the relation to Strawberry (Q*) is unclear, I may close trading in the market for a maximum of 2 months, waiting for evidence to confirm or discard any relation.
Resolves as NO:
Nothing is released or announced within the 72-hour time window.
Something is released or announced, but it is clear beyond doubt that it has nothing to do with Project Strawberry (Q*).
Something is released or announced, but the relation to Project Strawberry (Q*) is unclear, so the market has trading closed for a maximum of 2 months while waiting for more evidence, and at some point, the evidence is enough to conclude there is no relation.
After 2 months of waiting for more evidence to conclude the relation to Project Strawberry (Q*), there wasn't enough, so it resolves to NO by default.
OP Trading: Given the objective nature of this market’s resolution, I reserve the right to place bets. However, I will do so only after at least 5 trades or trade orders from different traders have been made to avoid any unfair advantage.
|
2024-08-07T17:05:31
|
2024-08-10T16:30:00
|
2024-08-10T16:58:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-16zjafa3qc
|
Will Kamala Harris win at least one state won by Donald Trump in 2020?
|
[image]Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins at least one of the states in red (for this question, not including ME-2) or NO if she doesn't
|
2024-08-07T16:40:41
|
2024-11-06T00:41:59
|
2024-11-06T00:41:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pabt9g6gtk
|
Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ?
|
I feel like he'll quit once he realises he's not going to win, but there are lots of other reasons why he could drop out
|
2024-08-07T14:53:24
|
2024-11-05T15:48:02
|
2024-11-05T15:48:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dv2evwzpat
|
Will Iran/proxies bomb major civilian infrastructure in Israel before September?
|
Will Iran or one of it’s proxies (Hezbollah and others) successfully hit a major civilian infrastructure site on in israel before September?
Intercepted bombings won’t. Israel’s economic waters also included.
Example of major civilian infrastructure: power station, gas rig, airport, seaport, water desalination plant, oil refinery, etc…
|
2024-08-07T14:34:23
|
2024-09-01T14:59:00
|
2024-09-01T22:55:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g5bkvpojmz
|
Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 55.5% before November 2024?
|
If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 55.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted on the “last day” chart) showing Harris’ odds of winning higher than 55.5%, then this will resolve NO.
Will not resolve from a determined glitch spike or fresh points that eventually move back down to 55.5 or lower (will wait until the point is static or the following 30min interval is plotted). I will not trade in this market.
Here’s another similar market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/pluffASMR/after-kamala-passes-trump-when-will)comment if you have questions or news 💙
|
2024-08-07T13:30:48
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:41:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oaiz5l6s9t
|
Will Reddit put any subreddit behind a paywall in 2024?
|
Reddit stock slumps after CEO Steve Huffman teases paywalled subreddits
Reddit’s CEO is hinting that the social media site could explore some paid options for select subreddits now that it’s publicly traded.
there has been a backlash from Redditors at the suggestion that the site may add paywalls to future subreddits. will the company test this practice in 2024?
resolves Yes if, at any point in 2024, at least one subreddit is put behind a paywall by Reddit, even if it's a short-lived experiment.
if users need to pay to access content in a subreddit, it counts. if there is limited free access with the option to pay for a full view or to post/interact, also resolves Yes.
|
2024-08-07T11:35:55
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-10T11:12:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mktxvtuxk
|
Will someone other than Kamala Harris win the nomination at the DNC?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-07T09:49:55
|
2024-08-21T12:30:55
|
2024-08-21T12:30:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w3pr5peedi
|
[Metaculus] Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? (5 or more deaths in 24 hours)
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26859/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-08-07T07:31:38
|
2024-09-02T03:00:42
|
2024-09-02T09:48:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-px4xcruk3z
|
will new gpt-4o-2024-08-06 rank #1 on LMSYS leaderboards?
|
In this article OpenAI has introduced a new model gpt-4o-2024-08-06.
The market will be resolved as 'Yes' if this model leads the leaderboard on its first appearance.
If the model does not appear in the leaderboard before September 6, 2024, the market will be resolved as 'N/A'.
If model does not leads the leaderboard on its first appearance then will be resolved as 'No'
UPDATE
note that two models with different scores can have same rank.if model will have rank #1 then its mean that it is leads the leaderboard no matter are there any other model which have higher score or not
|
2024-08-07T07:15:29
|
2024-08-23T13:04:39
|
2024-08-23T13:04:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ndhwcs9gag
|
Will any part of the Kursk oblast in Russia remain liberated on August 31st, 2024?
|
Ukrainian forces have allegedly liberated parts of the Kursk Oblast in Russia from Putin's regime. Resolves yes if any part of the Kursk oblast remains under Ukrainian control at the end of the month.
Resolves NO as soon as UA forces are pushed behind the border, even if they later return.
|
2024-08-07T07:00:45
|
2024-08-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-31T15:17:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-px8al6ka8p
|
Will France beat Spain?
|
/ 2024 Paris Olympics men's soccer final
Will France get gold at home?
|
2024-08-07T06:23:16
|
2024-08-09T20:59:00
|
2024-08-11T05:16:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2u7ibk665b
|
Will Tim Walz call JD Vance “Weird” to his face before November 2024?
|
“to his face” means Walz needs to speak the word “weird” (loud enough to be recorded) when referring to or describing JD Vance (not just ideas or policy) while being in the same room as JD Vance. Walz saying it in a video, text, or any live call to Vance will not count. Must be in person.
If that happens this resolves YES. Otherwise this resolves NO on November 1st, 2024.
similar markets:
[markets]comment any questions or news! 💙
|
2024-08-07T05:31:08
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T22:42:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2lr20nfy05
|
Will the new anonymous-chatbot model in the LMSYS Arena Rank No 1 after release?
|
A new stealth model has entered the arena called anonymous-chatbot wich claims to be called ChatGPT. Will it rank #1 after the model leaves stealth?
|
2024-08-07T03:34:12
|
2024-08-13T19:59:45
|
2024-08-13T19:59:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pcajphx7wz
|
Will Tucker Carlson interview Donald Trump or JD Vance before November 2024?
|
An "interview" must be at least 10 minutes of footage uploaded or streamed anywhere publicly online. During the footage the interviewee must answer at least three questions asked by the interviewer. Doesn't need to be in person just a confirmed real, public interview.
|
2024-08-07T03:19:39
|
2024-10-16T18:47:43
|
2024-10-16T18:47:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ns98ruckum
|
Will Crooked Joe Biden CRASH the Democrat National Convention and try to take back the Nomination?
|
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/112916846922600265
|
2024-08-06T21:39:45
|
2024-08-23T09:15:19
|
2024-08-23T09:15:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ko7pzrsley
|
NFL TNF Kickoff 2024: Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens? [1k subsidy]
|
9/5/24 @8:20 ET. Thursday Night Football at Arrowhead.
Will the defending Super Bowl champions win the first game of the season?
Tie resolves NO
[1k subsidy market]
|
2024-08-06T20:09:00
|
2024-09-05T20:55:54
|
2024-09-05T20:55:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-222vocme33
|
Will Taylor Swift perform at the Paris 2024 Olympics closing ceremony?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-06T14:11:50
|
2024-08-11T15:07:49
|
2024-08-11T15:07:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tco7vyy6gs
|
Trump-Vance vs Harris-Walz on election day?
|
Resolves YES if the final Democratic ticket on election day consists of Harris and Walz, and the final Republican ticket consists of Trump and Vance.
Resolves NO if any of them drops out / gets replaced for any reason.
|
2024-08-06T13:12:37
|
2024-11-05T05:42:51
|
2024-11-05T05:42:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cu4a2atm57
|
Will the word "couch" be said at least one time during any of the upcoming VP debates?
|
Resolves to yes if there is any mention of the word couch during any 2024 VP debate. Sofa, futon, chair or love seat do not count - only couch.
While this market is geared toward poking fun at the JD Vance meme it will still resolve yes if "couch" is said even if JD Vance is replaced with another candidate by the time the debate occurs.
If no debate occurs the market will resolve no.
Edit 8/7/2024: This market will close to new investment just before the debate begins. Resolution explanation will be posted less than 1 hour after debate ends. Assuming no discussion is needed the full resolution will be officially submitted shortly after.
|
2024-08-06T12:50:47
|
2024-10-01T19:02:10
|
2024-10-01T19:49:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hlui613ubi
|
Will Trump and Elon have an interview within 7 days from today?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-06T12:16:33
|
2024-08-13T14:48:20
|
2024-08-13T14:48:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-etqoetll5c
|
Will Tim Walz call JD Vance weird in a live debate before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-06T11:08:05
|
2024-10-01T20:13:11
|
2024-10-01T20:13:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-01sxxs4g3e
|
Will Tim Walz debate JD Vance?
|
Resolves YES if a formal debate is televised before the election.
|
2024-08-06T10:57:33
|
2024-10-01T17:59:00
|
2024-10-01T18:04:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ovnldydaw
|
Will Tim Walz be replaced as the Democratic VP candidate?
|
Before election day
|
2024-08-06T09:51:40
|
2024-11-05T05:43:30
|
2024-11-05T05:43:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ufth40lu7i
|
Will the 2024 US Presidential election be decided by a recount in Pennsylvania?
|
With Kamala Harris having picked Walz for Vice President instead of Shapiro, her odds of winning Pennsylvania significantly declined on all prediction markets. At the time of the question's posting, she was projected to win Georgia but not Pennsylvania, and come up 2 votes short. If the election were held today, there would likely be a Florida-style recount in Pennsylvania.
This market will resolve to YES if the 2024 Presidential election goes to a recount in Pennsylvania, and the electoral college winner of the entire US election is not projected by the Associated Press until either the recount is fully concluded or the AP judges that enough counties have finished the recount to project a winner.
The market will resolve to N/A if the election does not occur in 2024. Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-08-06T09:39:06
|
2024-11-06T05:19:30
|
2024-11-06T05:19:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1p91gnmil9
|
Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-05T23:55:58
|
2024-11-13T20:07:57
|
2024-11-13T20:07:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3s3mb3guje
|
Will Kamala Harris say the word 'weird' in a debate with Donald Trump?
|
Applies to presidential debates taking place in 2024. Resolves to NO if the two do not debate each other in 2024.
|
2024-08-05T23:09:06
|
2024-11-04T20:24:42
|
2024-11-04T20:24:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kiunt04jes
|
80% on SWE-Bench Verified by Jan 1 2025
|
Someone will achieve 80% on SWE-Bench by Jan 1 2025. Current SoTA is ~20%. Must announce result by Jan 1.
Current SoTA now 30% Aug 12.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.06770
market is now 80% on SWE Bench verified by EOY.
https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-bench-verified/
Given the uncertainty in this market with respect to resolution criteria, I have sold all my shares and will merely judge it.
|
2024-08-05T21:47:17
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T10:55:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-shsx4o748j
|
Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI after his vacation?
|
Greg Brockman is taking a sabbatical through the end of the year: https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1820644694264791459
Will he return to OpenAI at the end of it (and continue working)? I will resolve this market within 2 months of the end of the year.
|
2024-08-05T19:41:02
|
2024-11-17T12:31:53
|
2024-11-17T12:31:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h8pw5bp0b4
|
Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on September 30th?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\n\nWhoever has a higher chance of winning. (Not the poll numbers, the % Chance of winning)\n\nYes=Harris\n\nNo=Trump\n\nWill resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available."
|
2024-08-05T09:32:32
|
2024-09-27T20:59:00
|
2024-09-30T11:03:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f3u7gee4t7
|
Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate cut in August 2024?
|
Resolves YES if in August 2024, the Fed cuts the fed funds rate outside of one of their scheduled meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
See the red highlighted actions in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions for historical examples - the most recent was an emergency rate cut at the beginning of the Covid pandemic.
Context: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html "Traders now see a roughly 60% chance of an emergency quarter-point cut within one week."
[link preview]
|
2024-08-05T05:43:09
|
2024-09-01T05:29:35
|
2024-09-01T05:29:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nkepug2sla
|
Will MLB’s Chicago White Sox set a new record for the most losses (121+) this season?
|
As of August 4, 2024, the Chicago White Sox have the worst record in Major League Baseball at 27-87, with a 23.7% win percentage.
On May 15, 2024, the Chicago White Sox achieved a 31.8% win percentage based on a 14-30 win-loss record, currently their highest mark. With the White Sox matching this and exceeding by one game, they could potentially finish optimistically with a 52-110 record.
Since May 15, the White Sox’ performance has been 13-57, an abysmal 18.6% win rate that rivals the Cleveland Spiders’ 1899 campaign for sucktitude.
The records for losses in the modern era are as follows:
<162 games: 1962 New York Mets, 120 losses
162 games: 2003 Detroit Tigers, 119 losses
This market resolves YES if the Chicago White Sox lose 121 or more games by the conclusion of the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season.
Edit: Resolves NO if the Chicago White Sox win 42 games, ensuring their loss total cannot exceed 120.
|
2024-08-05T05:20:34
|
2024-09-27T17:59:53
|
2024-09-27T17:59:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f92i9rjbm6
|
In 2024 will there be RFK Jr. copycats who deliberately put large animal carcasses in urban parks to amuse themselves?
|
In light of RFK Jr.’s 2014 incident involving a bear cub carcass in Central Park, do you think others will mimic this act in 2024 by placing large animal carcasses in urban parks for amusement? For this question, a “large animal carcass” is defined as any non-domestic animal carcass weighing at least 50 pounds. Consider the potential influence of media coverage, social trends, and public reactions when making your prediction.
https://ca.news.yahoo.com/rfk-jr-says-planned-skin-010505280.html
|
2024-08-05T02:16:28
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:50:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-he8uki7nxr
|
If Iran/Hezbollah attacks Israel, will it be a multi day attack?
|
Some rumors that Israel is bracing for a multi day attack.
This settles as yes if the times of rockets landing (or ground invasion) spans over 24 hours. "Normal" Hezbollah bombings (anything up to 100 rockets/day and concentrated in northern areas they've hit before) wouldn't count.
|
2024-08-05T01:21:44
|
2024-08-27T13:59:00
|
2024-08-28T00:58:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yx8xw680va
|
Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $19.00 USD in August 2024?
|
"Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop in July 1974, which was three years after Intel’s IPO. The company’s market cap is now below $100 billion.
The dramatic selloff contributed to a 2.4% drop in the Nasdaq and pulled down global semiconductor stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — known as TSMC — closed 4.6% lower in Taiwan, and Samsung was down more than 4% at the end of the session in South Korea. TSMC is the world’s biggest manufacturer of chips, while Samsung is the largest memory semiconductor firm globally.
Intel’s numbers were bad across the board..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/intel-share-plunge-drags-down-global-chip-stocks-from-tsmc-to-samsung.html
Intel is also having negative PR from big tech youtubers due to their CPU failures and allegedly shady/dishonest conduct
[image][image]Will the stock fall to even more historic lows of 19.00 USD in August 2024? Afterhours and pre-market hours count.
Related Markets:
[markets]
|
2024-08-05T01:19:41
|
2024-08-07T19:46:07
|
2024-08-07T19:46:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5edzmu2f9a
|
Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $18.50 USD in August 2024?
|
"Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop in July 1974, which was three years after Intel’s IPO. The company’s market cap is now below $100 billion.
The dramatic selloff contributed to a 2.4% drop in the Nasdaq and pulled down global semiconductor stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — known as TSMC — closed 4.6% lower in Taiwan, and Samsung was down more than 4% at the end of the session in South Korea. TSMC is the world’s biggest manufacturer of chips, while Samsung is the largest memory semiconductor firm globally.
Intel’s numbers were bad across the board..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/intel-share-plunge-drags-down-global-chip-stocks-from-tsmc-to-samsung.html
Intel is also having negative PR from big tech youtubers due to their CPU failures and allegedly shady/dishonest conduct
[image][image]Will the stock fall to even more historic lows of 18.50 USD in August 2024? Afterhours and pre-market hours count.
Related Markets:
[markets]
|
2024-08-05T01:16:29
|
2024-08-31T11:06:48
|
2024-08-31T11:06:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-twc1tpgoee
|
Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $18.00 USD in August 2024?
|
"Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop in July 1974, which was three years after Intel’s IPO. The company’s market cap is now below $100 billion.
The dramatic selloff contributed to a 2.4% drop in the Nasdaq and pulled down global semiconductor stocks. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — known as TSMC — closed 4.6% lower in Taiwan, and Samsung was down more than 4% at the end of the session in South Korea. TSMC is the world’s biggest manufacturer of chips, while Samsung is the largest memory semiconductor firm globally.
Intel’s numbers were bad across the board..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/02/intel-share-plunge-drags-down-global-chip-stocks-from-tsmc-to-samsung.html
Intel is also having negative PR from big tech youtubers due to their CPU failures and allegedly shady/dishonest conduct
[image][image]Will the stock fall to even more historic lows of 18.00 USD in August 2024? Afterhours and pre-market hours count.
Related Markets:
[markets]
|
2024-08-05T01:14:05
|
2024-08-31T11:06:53
|
2024-08-31T11:06:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rxpbk0n1rf
|
Will Destiny's main youtube channel reach 805k subs in August 2024?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny
|
2024-08-05T00:49:01
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T00:05:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dw68dxrpei
|
WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025?
|
1000 combat deaths between two parties subject to common political jurisdiction at the start, with at least 5% of the deaths on each side.
|
2024-08-04T20:31:25
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:02:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ejh8srshgw
|
Will Harris's chance of winning one day before the election be between 45% and 55% on electionbettingodds.com?
|
Resolves based on the score on electionbettingodds.com at 12pm EST 11/4/24
|
2024-08-04T16:32:49
|
2024-11-04T09:01:36
|
2024-11-04T09:02:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-760d00ssmn
|
Will someone other than Harris or Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election?
|
As of the creation of this market, the main 2024 election market seems to be implying a 3% chance of this happening:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964)
I was wondering if this is accurate, or simply a mispricing.
This market resolves NO if and when the Trump or Harris option in the above market resolve to YES; Otherwise, it resolves YES if and when some other option in the above market resolves YES. If the above market is N/A'd, this market will also be N/A'd.
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-08-04T14:25:48
|
2024-11-07T12:53:15
|
2024-11-07T12:53:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ljxe2ios8b
|
Will Google release a new Gemini model before March 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Google announces a new "named" Gemini model prior to March 1, 2025.
For example, if Google announced a model named "Gemini 2", "Gemini 1.5 Ultra", or "Gemini 1.75" this would resolve as YES. Updates to existing released models do not count as YES. For example, a update to the existing version of the "Gemini 1.5 Flash" model would not count.
I'll provisionally use this models page to resolve this market.
Current list of models:
Gemini 1.5 Flash
Gemini 1.5 Pro
Gemini 1.0 Pro
Gemini 1.0 Pro Vision
Gemini 1.0 Ultra
Gemini 1.0 Ultra Vision
|
2024-08-04T13:14:37
|
2024-12-12T05:13:02
|
2024-12-12T05:13:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uw8iiluq8
|
Will Kamala's odds of winning increase from 8/4 to 8/11 according to Polymarket?
|
Resolves YES if the probability for Harris on the Polymarket Presidential Election Winner 2024 market is >46% on Sunday August 11th at 12:30 PM PT. Resolves NO otherwise (note that if it is 46% then it will resolve NO).
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1722799781235
Resolves according to the number in the graph feature.
|
2024-08-04T12:33:40
|
2024-08-11T12:30:00
|
2024-08-11T13:05:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lgy7wtu9sz
|
Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024?
|
Will any model that performs better than the equivalent size (± 10% in parameter count) LLaMa 3.1 model be officially released by Meta, where "performs better" means "at least 0.5% more accurate at MMLU"? Base model only.
For example, LLaMa 3.1 70B's MMLU score is 83.6% (an improvement over LLaMa 3.0 70B's 79.5% MMLU). LLaMa 3.2 70B would need to perform at 84.1% MMLU to resolve this market YES. Note that any model in the family (8B, 70B, 405B) performing at least 0.5% better is enough to resolve this market.
Multimodal models eligible but only text MMLU performance will be evaluated. Models that were fine-tuned, DPO'd, RLHF'd, or CPT'd on synthetic data will not resolve this market.
For reference, LLaMa 3.0 70B's MMLU score was 79.5, GPT-4o's score is 88.7, and LLaMa 3.1 405B base's score is 85.2. (LLaMa 3.1 405B Instruct score's is 88.7)
|
2024-08-03T22:50:07
|
2024-10-14T17:58:34
|
2024-10-14T17:58:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4mzlovj80g
|
Will Polymarket have $1 billion or more bet on “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves?
|
If “Amount Bet” on their website shows more than $1 billion for “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves, then this will resolve YES.
The current amount bet (as of August 3) is around $492 million.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
The question on Polymarket currently is set to end on Nov 4.
[image]
|
2024-08-03T19:59:32
|
2024-09-24T12:31:51
|
2024-09-24T12:31:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pzx7grpcuw
|
Will Jimmy Carter vote for Kamala Harris?
|
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/03/jimmy-carter-vote-kamala-harris-100th-birthday
Resolves YES if it is reported by Jimmy Carter or someone close to him that he voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, and NO otherwise. Mail-in votes count.
|
2024-08-03T18:03:39
|
2024-10-16T10:23:06
|
2024-10-16T10:23:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nhoyb50h9j
|
Will Kamala Harris deliver an eulogy at Jimmy Carter's state funeral?
|
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-a-republican-give-an-eulogy-du)
|
2024-08-03T06:14:59
|
2025-01-20T10:55:22
|
2025-01-20T10:55:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hvcnzbj2lb
|
Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?
|
This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.
|
2024-08-03T04:36:24
|
2024-12-05T11:10:55
|
2024-12-05T11:10:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-04om4lx7e9
|
Will the army be deployed onto British streets before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-02T23:27:16
|
2024-12-30T23:25:00
|
2025-01-01T21:48:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-18m91ubane
|
Will Kamala's odds of winning increase over the next week according to Nate Silver's model?
|
Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >46.6% on Friday August 9th at 8:40 PM. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
|
2024-08-02T20:41:33
|
2024-08-09T20:40:00
|
2024-08-09T20:50:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-icylz6704x
|
Will there be a claim that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relations published in a reputable newspaper?
|
Will there be a report claiming that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relationship published in any of the big newspapers of record in the US - WSJ, NYT, WashPo? Unsubstantiated claims from anonymous sources will not count. Some judgement here, so I won’t bet.
|
2024-08-02T14:31:40
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2024-11-01T00:12:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ft41zkcosd
|
Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting?
|
Resolves YES if the FED holds an unscheduled meeting to cut rates, or otherwise decides to lower the target federal funds rate before their scheduled meeting on September 17-18th.
Otherwise, resolves NO, regardless of the decision they make at their September meeting.
|
2024-08-02T09:18:24
|
2024-09-18T20:29:00
|
2024-09-18T20:29:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vljfjulbfu
|
Will Iran launch a direct attack on Israel, in retaliation for the July Tehran assassination before August 4th (IDT)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-02T09:11:47
|
2024-08-03T19:37:28
|
2024-08-03T19:37:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-artgub15m1
|
Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in November?
|
Resolves YES if they cut by more than 25bps in the November meeting.
|
2024-08-02T08:17:16
|
2024-11-07T11:03:21
|
2024-11-07T11:03:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2j17d8x8w7
|
Will Joe Biden Speak Live in person as the Keynote speaker at the Democratic Party Convention on Day 1?
|
If he is not present in person or he is not the Keynote speaker on Day 1, this will resolve to NO.
|
2024-08-02T08:02:13
|
2024-08-19T20:44:35
|
2024-08-19T20:44:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c74rs3d42h
|
Will the Director-General of the BBC, Tim Davie, resign/be fired by the end of August 2024?
|
The BBC director general is facing pressure and interviews after the latest BBC scandal and internal investigations.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/01/tim-davie-huw-edwards/
|
2024-08-02T04:24:45
|
2024-09-01T09:54:20
|
2024-09-01T09:54:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8fzu06q7gm
|
Will the UK Government announce that they are abolishing the two-child benefit cap by the end of 2024?
|
In 2017, the UK government introduced a "two-child cap" on Universal Credit. This effectively means that when the government calculates how much benefits (AKA welfare) a family is entitled to, they will treat a family with more than two children as having only two children.
This policy was opposed by Labour when they were in opposition and it is unpopular with MPs and activists on the left of the party, but the party leadership say that reversing the policy immediately would be too expensive. In the first few days of the new government, the party suspended the whip from seven MPs who voted against the government on the King's Speech over the issue.
Will the government announce that they are abolishing the two-child cap by the end of the year?
Resolution notes:
Announcing that the policy is being abolished by the end of the year is sufficient to resolve this to YES even if the implementation is announced to be happening after the end of the year
The government must announce that the policy is being scrapped rather than just affirming that they would like to scrap it, that they intend to scrap it, etc.
Raising the limit to three/four children rather than two will be sufficient
In the very unlikely event that the government reforms the entire benefits system so radically that the two-child cap is redundant and no longer applies, that will be sufficient to resolve to YES
|
2024-08-02T03:53:02
|
2025-01-03T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:21:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-982ylvby4i
|
Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in September?
|
At the time of writing, everyone is expecting a September rate cut of at least 25bps. Resolves YES if they cut by more than 25bps.
|
2024-08-02T02:57:56
|
2024-09-18T11:01:14
|
2024-09-18T11:01:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4pw6ounzv9
|
Will there be a confirmed case of locally acquired monkeypox Clade I outside of the African continent in 2024?
|
Follow up qn : https://manifold.markets/MitiSaksena/will-there-be-more-than-10-cases-of
Mpox Clade I has long been endemic in DRC. Over the last yr cases are up 160% and have been reported in Kenya, CAR, Rwanda.
Case fatality rate 3%
It is spread by close contact, sexual contact.
The poxes are quite visible (easy to diagnose), unsure latent infective period.
Clade 1 has never left the African continent to have secondary infections outside it.
|
2024-08-02T02:12:27
|
2024-11-09T16:38:05
|
2024-11-09T16:38:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-glv9kat2wn
|
Will Trump fire Chris LaCivita before Labor Day?
|
Former President Donald Trump churned through many campaign managers and strategists (including Corey Lewandowski, Paul Manafort, Kellyanne Conway, Steve Bannon, Brad Parscale, and Bill Stepien).
Will Trump fire Chris LaCivita as "co-campaign manager" by 11:59pm ET on September 1, 2024? The resolution sources are (a) an American 'major outlet' referenced here, (b) all official campaign websites and social media channels, or (c) any Trump communication, press release, tweet, truth, or statement.
Firing, dismal, taking a leave of absence, resignation, reassigning to a PAC, or leaving the campaign for any reason will count as YES. "Layering" or hiring a new strategist above LaCivita will not count. His position as COO to the RNC is irrelevant to this question. If there is uncertainty about LaCavita's status with the Trump campaign, the market creator will use best judgement to resolve the question.
The market creator will not trade in this market. The market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances.
Background:
Donald Trump presidential campaign staff, 2024
Who are Trump's top presidential campaign aides?
Trump's election A-team: Lean, mean and largely unseen
Chris LaCivita - Wikipedia
Chris LaCivita, the Swiftboater Coming for Biden
Harris slices Trump’s national lead in half: New polling average
|
2024-08-01T17:17:55
|
2024-09-01T20:59:00
|
2024-09-02T04:35:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-05el1ng5r1
|
Biden facilitates ceasefire in Ukraine before Election Day
|
Today’s prisoner exchange might be the first step to normalization of American-Russian relationships. Will Biden’s administration take the next step and help negotiate a deal between Russia and Ukraine before Election Day?
Any negotiations facilitated/supported by U.S. that lead to ceasefire or at least meaningful reduction in hostilities to resolve YES.
|
2024-08-01T13:43:00
|
2024-11-04T01:42:18
|
2024-11-04T01:42:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7l82m5r99q
|
Will Wesley So beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship?
|
The match will be played on 7th of August, 18:00 GMT.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.
|
2024-08-01T12:48:54
|
2024-08-07T16:59:00
|
2024-08-07T21:13:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ob31f2lkm0
|
Will Kanye West release his album Vultures 2 on August 2?
|
If Vultures 2 releases on August 2nd, 2024 (PST time) this resolves yes, otherwise it resolves no.
|
2024-08-01T00:43:30
|
2024-08-02T23:59:00
|
2024-08-03T02:05:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-00k7fbox9x
|
Will 538 shut down before EOY 2025?
|
Will the website "538" cease to exist by the end of 2025?
If the brand is retired but ABC continues to maintain a similar feature, this will still resolve Yes. The question regards whether or not there continues to exist a set of active web pages known as "538" or similar (eg, "538 politics", or an altered number reflecting a change in the number of votes in the electoral college), descended from the original website (ie, holding things like the original trademark). It does not need to retain the same URL to count as continuing to exist.
If the website is in archival mode, whereby the owner unambiguously does not intend to post any new content in the future, this will also resolve Yes. If the owner does not post any announcement of shutting it down, and it's possible that more content will be added, this will resolve No.
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-08-01T00:41:18
|
2025-03-05T13:37:13
|
2025-03-05T13:37:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cd715xmzch
|
Will there be an "Election 2024" Epic Rap Battle of History?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-08-01T00:20:17
|
2024-10-26T23:48:26
|
2024-10-26T23:48:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-guf14hqbvw
|
Will Trump pardon any of the convicted “J6ers” before 2028?
|
Recently in an interview Trump stated again that he will “absolutely” pardon those convicted from events that took place at the Capitol on Jan 6th.
In the three years since the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, federal prosecutors have charged more than 1,265 defendants across nearly all 50 states and D.C. and secured sentences of incarceration for more than 460 people, according to newly released numbers from the U.S. Attorney's Office in D.C.
Department prosecutors have secured more than 718 guilty pleas -- including 213 who pleaded to felonies that include assaults on federal officers, obstructing law enforcement and seditious conspiracy.
Also, 171 others have been found guilty at trial or otherwise convicted, the D.C. U.S. Attorney Office said.
Rules:
If Trump pardons anyone who has been convicted of: assaults on federal officers, obstructing law enforcement, or seditious conspiracy, due to their involvement in the events at the US Capitol on Jan 6th 2021, before 2028, then this will resolve YES.
If Trump is not elected in the 2024 Presidential election, or Trump is elected but pardons nobody fitting the description of “YES” above, then this will resolve NO.
This will NOT N/A
comment questions and news! 💙
|
2024-07-31T18:01:23
|
2025-01-21T19:55:27
|
2025-01-21T19:55:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zvkr514dud
|
Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before 2025?
|
Strikes on Israelis outside of Israel doesn't count. For the purpose of this question, Israel's borders are defined by the internationally recognized border plus the Golan Heights.
Strikes by Iranian proxies (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthies) doesn't count.
|
2024-07-31T17:56:18
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:34:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nz9exwi2os
|
Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before September 2024?
|
Strikes on Israelis outside of Israel doesn't count. For the purpose of this question, Israel's borders are defined by the internationally recognized border plus the Golan Heights.
Strikes by Iranian proxies (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthies) doesn't count.
|
2024-07-31T17:55:15
|
2024-08-31T15:06:35
|
2024-08-31T15:06:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j1lskxi2mh
|
Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) gross >$20 million during its (domestic) opening weekend?
|
Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Trap" (2024).
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).
For example, the "Domestic Opening" for the M. Night Shyamalan's "Old" was $$16,854,735. This is the equivalent number I will use.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/hJiPAJKjUVg)
|
2024-07-31T15:59:59
|
2024-08-04T12:59:00
|
2024-08-05T20:33:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1fi2cciidb
|
Will Simone Biles win the gold medal in the Floor Exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🥇
|
Simone Biles enters the floor exercise finals with the highest qualifying score:
1. BILES Simone - 14.600
2. ANDRADE Rebeca - 13.900
3. CHILES Jordan - 13.866
This market will close before the Floor Exercise final begins.
|
2024-07-30T20:30:33
|
2024-08-05T05:20:00
|
2024-08-05T09:41:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lpdt97fujq
|
[EXPONENTIAL GROWTH?] Will Chappell Roan reach >45 million monthly listeners on Spotify during August?
|
Since January, Chappell Roan has enjoyed a shocking surge in popularity (without even releasing a new album):
[image]If this exponential growth continues, soon she'll have trillions of monthly listeners.
The original market resolved YES—she grew by another 40% within a month.
Last market: @/Ziddletwix/will-chappell-roan-reach-35-million
Can she keep up this momentum?
This market resolves YES if she reaches >45 million monthly listeners on Spotify before the end of August?
At the time of question creation, she has 35,634,558 monthly listeners on Spotify.
This question will close for trading on August 17th (with two weeks remaining).
|
2024-07-30T17:09:58
|
2024-08-17T23:59:00
|
2024-09-02T03:53:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6id1l8qpzh
|
Will JD Vance be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15?
|
Resolves with story of accusation in mainstream print or broadcast media.
|
2024-07-30T15:27:00
|
2024-10-15T11:00:39
|
2024-10-15T11:00:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fkryieawcb
|
Will the Democratic VP win their own home state?
|
Will resolve "yes" if Kamala Harris and her VP candidate win the "home state" of the VP. This will be the state where they currently are a politician or reside. So for example, for the current top candidates it would be:
Kelly - Arizona
Shapiro - PA
Beshear - KY
Walz - Minn
Buttigieg - Michigan (where currently lives...and more interesting than Indiana)
Related question, broken down by each candidate, in the comments section.
|
2024-07-30T13:27:33
|
2024-11-06T06:23:10
|
2024-11-06T06:23:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-frbyzs05rw
|
Will JD Vance be the Vice Presidential candidate on Election Day 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-30T09:58:38
|
2024-11-06T12:47:35
|
2024-11-06T12:47:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g92mt2fbuo
|
Will Nicolás Maduro's government produce non-obviously fake voting records supporting a Maduro win until 8/31?
|
Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado has claimed to have enough voting records to prove that the opposition candidate Edmundo González won the election in Venezuela and that the victory claimed by Nicolás Maduro is fraudulent: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/venezuela-s-machado-says-opposition-has-enough-proof-of-fraud
Machado has made the claimed results available online at: https://resultadospresidencialesvenezuela2024.com/
This market aims to predict whether the Maduro government will produce its own, contradicting set of voting records, supporting Maduro's claimed 51% win.
The produced records need not be proven to be legitimate within the given timeframe, as the legitimacy of any records will likely be a matter of significant contention. It is, however, required that the produced records are consistent with the win claimed by Maduro and that they are sufficiently believable for international observers to consider it a legitimate topic of discussion by the international community whether Maduro really won (i.e. if Maduro just produces obviously fraudulent records, this will resolve NO).
I will hold off on resolving this market if there is significant disagreement over whether the voting records produced by the government, in case they are produced at all, are obviously fraudulent or not.
|
2024-07-30T08:01:27
|
2024-08-31T19:59:00
|
2024-08-31T20:09:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rsw65etdl2
|
Will Nicolas Maduro be alive on Jan 1, 2025
|
If he dies before 00:00 EST on Jan 1 2025 it will resolve to no, otherwise it will resolve to yes.
|
2024-07-30T07:54:46
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:36:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-im1xjrx0cx
|
Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be found guilty of a crime?
|
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/
As of this market's creation, there is ongoing civil unrest in Israel over the arrest and detention of several IDF reservists over the alleged sodomization of a captive terrorist. Pressure from right-wing Israeli politicians, militias, and other elements of the IDF is being applied to release the reservists and treat their actions as acceptable or at least non-criminal.
Spirit of the market: This only pertains to crimes related to the sexual assault, torture, or other mistreatment of prisoners. If one of the reservists is arrested or charged with something else, that is not relevant to this market. Also, if the reservists are freed but a trial is pending, this market will resolve based on the trial.
If even one reservist is found guilty of a crime, this will resolve Yes. If the reservists are released and forgiven, or if a trial takes place and they are found innocent, then this will resolve No. If a nuance of the Israeli legal system uses different vocabulary than my American market description, I will take advice on edge cases, but most paralleles should be obvious.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-the-idf-reservists-who-engaged-qozzuol11n)
|
2024-07-30T07:54:12
|
2025-02-07T05:31:54
|
2025-02-07T05:31:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-amklevuaaf
|
Will Fabiano Caruana beat Alexey Sarana in Speed Chess Championship?
|
The match starts 18:30 GMT on Wednesday.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.
|
2024-07-30T05:05:29
|
2024-07-31T14:59:00
|
2024-07-31T15:08:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e2ounqavul
|
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship?
|
The match starts 15:00 GMT on Wednesday.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.
|
2024-07-30T04:59:01
|
2024-07-31T14:59:00
|
2024-07-31T15:09:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mz2e5yjci9
|
Will Lula recognize the election result in Venezuela?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-29T19:03:06
|
2024-08-13T23:52:33
|
2024-08-13T23:52:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a1yx5iz51v
|
Will Maduro lose power by Aug 31, 2024?
|
Will Nicolas Maduro be president of Venezuela continuously through Aug 31, 2024?
If he temporarily loses power for several hours to a couple days, but regains it - this will resolve No.
If he loses power and does not regain it by Sept 1, it will resolve Yes.
|
2024-07-29T18:01:37
|
2024-09-01T20:59:00
|
2024-09-02T02:05:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jkrvrwl2es
|
Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on August 31st?
|
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the last day of the month is available.
|
2024-07-29T15:21:11
|
2024-08-31T15:39:41
|
2024-08-31T15:39:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.