id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-w8mlkopsdq | Will Kamala's odds of winning increase from 8/9 to 8/16 according to Nate Silver's model? | Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >53.8% on Friday August 16th at 11:59 PM PT. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model | 2024-08-09T20:53:32 | 2024-08-16T23:59:00 | 2024-08-17T00:06:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6u3b3ceyge | Will Tim Walz be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15? | Resolves with story of accusation in mainstream print or broadcast media. | 2024-08-09T18:50:46 | 2024-10-15T10:25:02 | 2024-10-15T10:25:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-47h436gnl4 | Will the TOP PRICE of BITCOIN in this bull run be 96420 USD? | The top of this bull run is 96420 USD? | 2024-08-09T16:48:12 | 2024-11-20T21:09:18 | 2024-11-20T21:09:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l5fsts2olk | Will Nikki Haley replace Donald Trump on the GOP ticket before the November 2024 election? | What if Donald Trump decides he can't win? Will he drop off the ticket and make a deal with the GOP not to indict him? What would GOP do then? How likely would it be to replace Trump with Haley? Wild speculation obviously, but you never know! | 2024-08-09T14:59:09 | 2024-11-05T10:33:09 | 2024-11-05T10:33:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vwcgxj4s5t | Will anyone find a universal jailbreak in the system Anthropic was testing on (8/9/24) within 3 months? | Resolves to YES if a universal jailbreak is found for that system by that time.
Resolves to NO if it hasn't been by 11/10/24.
See: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369
Anthropic / Sam Bowman's decision will determine the outcome. If I don't have an official answer I'll use best knowledge. See the... | 2024-08-09T10:07:48 | 2025-02-09T20:59:00 | 2025-02-10T04:51:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4auc6pg06l | [Metaculus] Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier A...d before October 1, 2024? | Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26962/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves as Yes... | 2024-08-09T07:34:52 | 2024-10-01T07:51:27 | 2024-10-01T07:51:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kfdddjhjn0 | [Metaculus] Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024? | Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26938/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between ... | 2024-08-09T07:34:49 | 2024-10-01T07:51:24 | 2024-10-01T07:51:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1oju713tiz | Will either major party change their ticket in any way? | The Democratic ticket is set to be Harris/Walz, while the Republican ticket is Trump/Vance. Resolves YES if either of these changes for any reason. Resolves NO if no such change has been made and the election has passed. | 2024-08-09T06:51:18 | 2024-11-05T04:26:36 | 2024-11-06T04:59:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-huq1sfos2l | Will a magnitude 8 earthquake hit Japan this month? | Resolves as Yes if, between the dates of August 9-31, 2024 (inclusive of those end dates), Japan Standard Time, an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or higher (as rounded to the nearest tenth of a point) occurs with an epicenter less than 100 miles from any point in Japan, as reported no later than September 1, 2024 (JST) at... | 2024-08-09T05:34:26 | 2024-08-31T19:30:44 | 2024-08-31T19:30:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ki4usmxo2r | Trump says he wants to do 3 debates in September. Will it actually happen? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-08T16:22:08 | 2024-10-01T20:59:00 | 2024-10-02T04:37:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2m6vkinuye | Will any presidential candidate be shot at or assassinated before the end of the election? (Attempted or successful) | Yes, this is a dark question, and although no one should wish that on anyone… as an outsider to the US, it’s not unlikely given the tense political climate and the American aptitude towards firearms or other weapon's. | 2024-08-08T14:08:00 | 2024-09-16T15:12:21 | 2024-09-16T15:12:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9gqz2o59g1 | Will "Alien: Romulus" have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score >75%? | "Alien: Romulus" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is >75%, one week after release (August 23rd).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal), and this is a strict inequality.
For example, "Alien: Covenant" (... | 2024-08-08T13:45:50 | 2024-08-23T08:17:42 | 2024-08-23T08:17:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-739g5p16up | Will the US permit Ukraine to strike into Russia before 2025 | As far as I can tell, Ukraine have been given vague permissions but still aren't allowed to strike air bases. The question is whether they get some kind of minimal viable permission.
Feel free to discuss in the comments to help us figure out what the resolution is.
Currently I'm gonna say, "are they allowed to strike... | 2024-08-08T13:07:43 | 2024-12-06T14:44:20 | 2024-12-06T14:44:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-blja02o9uy | 2024 July hottest on record? [Polymarket clone] | https://polymarket.com/event/2024-july-hottest-on-record?tid=1723139366062
clone of the polymarket, resolves identically | 2024-08-08T11:13:33 | 2024-08-09T10:21:21 | 2024-08-09T10:21:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ovilyci3c4 | Will Keir Starmer call any view of UK anti-immigration protestors “legitimate” or “genuine” by the end of 2024? | This poll resolves true if Keir Starmer refers to any of the views of any anti-immigration protestor groups/ gatherings, including the so called “far right” as “legitimate” or “genuine”, in these terms. These terms must be used as a genuine assertion, for example it does not count if they are used in a statement such a... | 2024-08-08T09:58:31 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:01:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bfn9epzf6e | [Metaculus] Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024? | Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26526/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory o... | 2024-08-08T07:33:05 | 2024-10-02T07:53:36 | 2024-10-02T07:53:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tbi31olhi2 | Will Ukraine take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant by the end of this month? | Resolves YES if at any point in time, Ukraine takes control of the Kurs Nuclear Power Plant, by the end of August 31, 2024 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). | 2024-08-08T05:21:19 | 2024-08-31T14:59:00 | 2024-08-31T15:04:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gyfuu4ytpa | Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 61.2% before November 2024? | If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 61.2% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted ... | 2024-08-07T21:35:45 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:41:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p1bqca3lmh | Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 68.5% (Trump's Peak) before November 2024? | If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 68.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted ... | 2024-08-07T19:54:33 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:42:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aqe9fpc1gm | Will OpenAI announce or release something related to Project Strawberry (Q*) in the next 72 hours? | The Twitter/X account of iruletheworldmo claims that OpenAI is going to release something related to Project Strawberry in the next few hours.
[tweet]This is likely just a shitposting account, but I still find it funny to create a market about this.
Resolves as YES:
OpenAI announces or releases anything related to P... | 2024-08-07T17:05:31 | 2024-08-10T16:30:00 | 2024-08-10T16:58:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-16zjafa3qc | Will Kamala Harris win at least one state won by Donald Trump in 2020? | [image]Resolves YES if Kamala Harris wins at least one of the states in red (for this question, not including ME-2) or NO if she doesn't | 2024-08-07T16:40:41 | 2024-11-06T00:41:59 | 2024-11-06T00:41:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pabt9g6gtk | Will Donald Trump drop out of the presidential election for any reason before Nov 5th ? | I feel like he'll quit once he realises he's not going to win, but there are lots of other reasons why he could drop out | 2024-08-07T14:53:24 | 2024-11-05T15:48:02 | 2024-11-05T15:48:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dv2evwzpat | Will Iran/proxies bomb major civilian infrastructure in Israel before September? | Will Iran or one of it’s proxies (Hezbollah and others) successfully hit a major civilian infrastructure site on in israel before September?
Intercepted bombings won’t. Israel’s economic waters also included.
Example of major civilian infrastructure: power station, gas rig, airport, seaport, water desalination plant,... | 2024-08-07T14:34:23 | 2024-09-01T14:59:00 | 2024-09-01T22:55:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g5bkvpojmz | Will Kamala Harris’ “electionbettingodds” exceed 55.5% before November 2024? | If at any moment before November 1st, the odds for Kamala Harris to win the 2024 US Presidential Election goes above 55.5% on the “last day” chart from election betting odds (points plotted about every 30mins), then this market resolves YES.
By November 1st, if there are no 30-minute intervals (a single point plotted... | 2024-08-07T13:30:48 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:41:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oaiz5l6s9t | Will Reddit put any subreddit behind a paywall in 2024? | Reddit stock slumps after CEO Steve Huffman teases paywalled subreddits
Reddit’s CEO is hinting that the social media site could explore some paid options for select subreddits now that it’s publicly traded.
there has been a backlash from Redditors at the suggestion that the site may add paywalls to future subreddits... | 2024-08-07T11:35:55 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-10T11:12:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0mktxvtuxk | Will someone other than Kamala Harris win the nomination at the DNC? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-07T09:49:55 | 2024-08-21T12:30:55 | 2024-08-21T12:30:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w3pr5peedi | [Metaculus] Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024? (5 or more deaths in 24 hours) | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26859/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1... | 2024-08-07T07:31:38 | 2024-09-02T03:00:42 | 2024-09-02T09:48:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-px4xcruk3z | will new gpt-4o-2024-08-06 rank #1 on LMSYS leaderboards? | In this article OpenAI has introduced a new model gpt-4o-2024-08-06.
The market will be resolved as 'Yes' if this model leads the leaderboard on its first appearance.
If the model does not appear in the leaderboard before September 6, 2024, the market will be resolved as 'N/A'.
If model does not leads the leaderboard... | 2024-08-07T07:15:29 | 2024-08-23T13:04:39 | 2024-08-23T13:04:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ndhwcs9gag | Will any part of the Kursk oblast in Russia remain liberated on August 31st, 2024? | Ukrainian forces have allegedly liberated parts of the Kursk Oblast in Russia from Putin's regime. Resolves yes if any part of the Kursk oblast remains under Ukrainian control at the end of the month.
Resolves NO as soon as UA forces are pushed behind the border, even if they later return. | 2024-08-07T07:00:45 | 2024-08-31T14:59:00 | 2024-08-31T15:17:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-px8al6ka8p | Will France beat Spain? | / 2024 Paris Olympics men's soccer final
Will France get gold at home? | 2024-08-07T06:23:16 | 2024-08-09T20:59:00 | 2024-08-11T05:16:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2u7ibk665b | Will Tim Walz call JD Vance “Weird” to his face before November 2024? | “to his face” means Walz needs to speak the word “weird” (loud enough to be recorded) when referring to or describing JD Vance (not just ideas or policy) while being in the same room as JD Vance. Walz saying it in a video, text, or any live call to Vance will not count. Must be in person.
If that happens this resolve... | 2024-08-07T05:31:08 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-01T22:42:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2lr20nfy05 | Will the new anonymous-chatbot model in the LMSYS Arena Rank No 1 after release? | A new stealth model has entered the arena called anonymous-chatbot wich claims to be called ChatGPT. Will it rank #1 after the model leaves stealth? | 2024-08-07T03:34:12 | 2024-08-13T19:59:45 | 2024-08-13T19:59:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pcajphx7wz | Will Tucker Carlson interview Donald Trump or JD Vance before November 2024? | An "interview" must be at least 10 minutes of footage uploaded or streamed anywhere publicly online. During the footage the interviewee must answer at least three questions asked by the interviewer. Doesn't need to be in person just a confirmed real, public interview. | 2024-08-07T03:19:39 | 2024-10-16T18:47:43 | 2024-10-16T18:47:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ns98ruckum | Will Crooked Joe Biden CRASH the Democrat National Convention and try to take back the Nomination? | https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/112916846922600265 | 2024-08-06T21:39:45 | 2024-08-23T09:15:19 | 2024-08-23T09:15:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ko7pzrsley | NFL TNF Kickoff 2024: Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Baltimore Ravens? [1k subsidy] | 9/5/24 @8:20 ET. Thursday Night Football at Arrowhead.
Will the defending Super Bowl champions win the first game of the season?
Tie resolves NO
[1k subsidy market] | 2024-08-06T20:09:00 | 2024-09-05T20:55:54 | 2024-09-05T20:55:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-222vocme33 | Will Taylor Swift perform at the Paris 2024 Olympics closing ceremony? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-06T14:11:50 | 2024-08-11T15:07:49 | 2024-08-11T15:07:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tco7vyy6gs | Trump-Vance vs Harris-Walz on election day? | Resolves YES if the final Democratic ticket on election day consists of Harris and Walz, and the final Republican ticket consists of Trump and Vance.
Resolves NO if any of them drops out / gets replaced for any reason. | 2024-08-06T13:12:37 | 2024-11-05T05:42:51 | 2024-11-05T05:42:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cu4a2atm57 | Will the word "couch" be said at least one time during any of the upcoming VP debates? | Resolves to yes if there is any mention of the word couch during any 2024 VP debate. Sofa, futon, chair or love seat do not count - only couch.
While this market is geared toward poking fun at the JD Vance meme it will still resolve yes if "couch" is said even if JD Vance is replaced with another candidate by the tim... | 2024-08-06T12:50:47 | 2024-10-01T19:02:10 | 2024-10-01T19:49:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hlui613ubi | Will Trump and Elon have an interview within 7 days from today? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-06T12:16:33 | 2024-08-13T14:48:20 | 2024-08-13T14:48:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-etqoetll5c | Will Tim Walz call JD Vance weird in a live debate before the election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-06T11:08:05 | 2024-10-01T20:13:11 | 2024-10-01T20:13:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-01sxxs4g3e | Will Tim Walz debate JD Vance? | Resolves YES if a formal debate is televised before the election. | 2024-08-06T10:57:33 | 2024-10-01T17:59:00 | 2024-10-01T18:04:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ovnldydaw | Will Tim Walz be replaced as the Democratic VP candidate? | Before election day | 2024-08-06T09:51:40 | 2024-11-05T05:43:30 | 2024-11-05T05:43:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ufth40lu7i | Will the 2024 US Presidential election be decided by a recount in Pennsylvania? | With Kamala Harris having picked Walz for Vice President instead of Shapiro, her odds of winning Pennsylvania significantly declined on all prediction markets. At the time of the question's posting, she was projected to win Georgia but not Pennsylvania, and come up 2 votes short. If the election were held today, ther... | 2024-08-06T09:39:06 | 2024-11-06T05:19:30 | 2024-11-06T05:19:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1p91gnmil9 | Will Richard Ngo still be working at OpenAI in 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-05T23:55:58 | 2024-11-13T20:07:57 | 2024-11-13T20:07:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3s3mb3guje | Will Kamala Harris say the word 'weird' in a debate with Donald Trump? | Applies to presidential debates taking place in 2024. Resolves to NO if the two do not debate each other in 2024. | 2024-08-05T23:09:06 | 2024-11-04T20:24:42 | 2024-11-04T20:24:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kiunt04jes | 80% on SWE-Bench Verified by Jan 1 2025 | Someone will achieve 80% on SWE-Bench by Jan 1 2025. Current SoTA is ~20%. Must announce result by Jan 1.
Current SoTA now 30% Aug 12.
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2310.06770
market is now 80% on SWE Bench verified by EOY.
https://openai.com/index/introducing-swe-bench-verified/
Given the uncertainty in this market with ... | 2024-08-05T21:47:17 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T10:55:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-shsx4o748j | Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI after his vacation? | Greg Brockman is taking a sabbatical through the end of the year: https://twitter.com/gdb/status/1820644694264791459
Will he return to OpenAI at the end of it (and continue working)? I will resolve this market within 2 months of the end of the year. | 2024-08-05T19:41:02 | 2024-11-17T12:31:53 | 2024-11-17T12:31:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h8pw5bp0b4 | Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on September 30th? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model\n\nWhoever has a higher chance of winning. (Not the poll numbers, the % Chance of winning)\n\nYes=Harris\n\nNo=Trump\n\nWill resolve as soon as data for the day listed in the title is available." | 2024-08-05T09:32:32 | 2024-09-27T20:59:00 | 2024-09-30T11:03:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f3u7gee4t7 | Will the Fed make an emergency unscheduled rate cut in August 2024? | Resolves YES if in August 2024, the Fed cuts the fed funds rate outside of one of their scheduled meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
See the red highlighted actions in https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Federal_Open_Market_Committee_actions#Historical_actions for historica... | 2024-08-05T05:43:09 | 2024-09-01T05:29:35 | 2024-09-01T05:29:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nkepug2sla | Will MLB’s Chicago White Sox set a new record for the most losses (121+) this season? | As of August 4, 2024, the Chicago White Sox have the worst record in Major League Baseball at 27-87, with a 23.7% win percentage.
On May 15, 2024, the Chicago White Sox achieved a 31.8% win percentage based on a 14-30 win-loss record, currently their highest mark. With the White Sox matching this and exceeding by one ... | 2024-08-05T05:20:34 | 2024-09-27T17:59:53 | 2024-09-27T17:59:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f92i9rjbm6 | In 2024 will there be RFK Jr. copycats who deliberately put large animal carcasses in urban parks to amuse themselves? | In light of RFK Jr.’s 2014 incident involving a bear cub carcass in Central Park, do you think others will mimic this act in 2024 by placing large animal carcasses in urban parks for amusement? For this question, a “large animal carcass” is defined as any non-domestic animal carcass weighing at least 50 pounds. Conside... | 2024-08-05T02:16:28 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2024-12-31T23:50:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-he8uki7nxr | If Iran/Hezbollah attacks Israel, will it be a multi day attack? | Some rumors that Israel is bracing for a multi day attack.
This settles as yes if the times of rockets landing (or ground invasion) spans over 24 hours. "Normal" Hezbollah bombings (anything up to 100 rockets/day and concentrated in northern areas they've hit before) wouldn't count. | 2024-08-05T01:21:44 | 2024-08-27T13:59:00 | 2024-08-28T00:58:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yx8xw680va | Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $19.00 USD in August 2024? | "Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop ... | 2024-08-05T01:19:41 | 2024-08-07T19:46:07 | 2024-08-07T19:46:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5edzmu2f9a | Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $18.50 USD in August 2024? | "Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop ... | 2024-08-05T01:16:29 | 2024-08-31T11:06:48 | 2024-08-31T11:06:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-twc1tpgoee | Will Intel stock (INTC) fall below $18.00 USD in August 2024? | "Intel shares plunged the most in 50 years on Friday, reaching a price not seen since 2013, after the chipmaker reported a big earnings miss and announced a massive restructuring.
The stock plummeted 27% to $21.22 as of late morning trading. It would be the second worst day ever for the shares, behind only a 31% drop ... | 2024-08-05T01:14:05 | 2024-08-31T11:06:53 | 2024-08-31T11:06:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rxpbk0n1rf | Will Destiny's main youtube channel reach 805k subs in August 2024? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/destiny | 2024-08-05T00:49:01 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T00:05:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dw68dxrpei | WIll there be a civil war in the UK before 2025? | 1000 combat deaths between two parties subject to common political jurisdiction at the start, with at least 5% of the deaths on each side. | 2024-08-04T20:31:25 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:02:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ejh8srshgw | Will Harris's chance of winning one day before the election be between 45% and 55% on electionbettingodds.com? | Resolves based on the score on electionbettingodds.com at 12pm EST 11/4/24 | 2024-08-04T16:32:49 | 2024-11-04T09:01:36 | 2024-11-04T09:02:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-760d00ssmn | Will someone other than Harris or Trump win the 2024 U.S. presidential election? | As of the creation of this market, the main 2024 election market seems to be implying a 3% chance of this happening:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964)
I was wondering if this is accurate, or simply a mispricing.
This market resolves NO if and when the Trump or Harr... | 2024-08-04T14:25:48 | 2024-11-07T12:53:15 | 2024-11-07T12:53:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ljxe2ios8b | Will Google release a new Gemini model before March 2025? | Resolves YES if Google announces a new "named" Gemini model prior to March 1, 2025.
For example, if Google announced a model named "Gemini 2", "Gemini 1.5 Ultra", or "Gemini 1.75" this would resolve as YES. Updates to existing released models do not count as YES. For example, a update to the existing version of the "G... | 2024-08-04T13:14:37 | 2024-12-12T05:13:02 | 2024-12-12T05:13:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5uw8iiluq8 | Will Kamala's odds of winning increase from 8/4 to 8/11 according to Polymarket? | Resolves YES if the probability for Harris on the Polymarket Presidential Election Winner 2024 market is >46% on Sunday August 11th at 12:30 PM PT. Resolves NO otherwise (note that if it is 46% then it will resolve NO).
Link: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1722799781235
Resolves ac... | 2024-08-04T12:33:40 | 2024-08-11T12:30:00 | 2024-08-11T13:05:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lgy7wtu9sz | Will Meta release any same-size LLaMa that performs better at MMLU before October 14th 2024? | Will any model that performs better than the equivalent size (± 10% in parameter count) LLaMa 3.1 model be officially released by Meta, where "performs better" means "at least 0.5% more accurate at MMLU"? Base model only.
For example, LLaMa 3.1 70B's MMLU score is 83.6% (an improvement over LLaMa 3.0 70B's 79.5% MMLU)... | 2024-08-03T22:50:07 | 2024-10-14T17:58:34 | 2024-10-14T17:58:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4mzlovj80g | Will Polymarket have $1 billion or more bet on “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves? | If “Amount Bet” on their website shows more than $1 billion for “Presidential Election Winner 2024” before it resolves, then this will resolve YES.
The current amount bet (as of August 3) is around $492 million.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
The question on Polymarket currently is ... | 2024-08-03T19:59:32 | 2024-09-24T12:31:51 | 2024-09-24T12:31:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pzx7grpcuw | Will Jimmy Carter vote for Kamala Harris? | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/03/jimmy-carter-vote-kamala-harris-100th-birthday
Resolves YES if it is reported by Jimmy Carter or someone close to him that he voted for Kamala Harris in 2024, and NO otherwise. Mail-in votes count. | 2024-08-03T18:03:39 | 2024-10-16T10:23:06 | 2024-10-16T10:23:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nhoyb50h9j | Will Kamala Harris deliver an eulogy at Jimmy Carter's state funeral? | Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MP/will-a-republican-give-an-eulogy-du) | 2024-08-03T06:14:59 | 2025-01-20T10:55:22 | 2025-01-20T10:55:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hvcnzbj2lb | Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025? | This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before January 1, 2025, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation. | 2024-08-03T04:36:24 | 2024-12-05T11:10:55 | 2024-12-05T11:10:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-04om4lx7e9 | Will the army be deployed onto British streets before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-02T23:27:16 | 2024-12-30T23:25:00 | 2025-01-01T21:48:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-18m91ubane | Will Kamala's odds of winning increase over the next week according to Nate Silver's model? | Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >46.6% on Friday August 9th at 8:40 PM. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model | 2024-08-02T20:41:33 | 2024-08-09T20:40:00 | 2024-08-09T20:50:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-icylz6704x | Will there be a claim that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relations published in a reputable newspaper? | Will there be a report claiming that Kamala Harris has had a lesbian relationship published in any of the big newspapers of record in the US - WSJ, NYT, WashPo? Unsubstantiated claims from anonymous sources will not count. Some judgement here, so I won’t bet. | 2024-08-02T14:31:40 | 2024-10-31T23:59:00 | 2024-11-01T00:12:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ft41zkcosd | Will the FED cut rates *before* their scheduled September meeting? | Resolves YES if the FED holds an unscheduled meeting to cut rates, or otherwise decides to lower the target federal funds rate before their scheduled meeting on September 17-18th.
Otherwise, resolves NO, regardless of the decision they make at their September meeting. | 2024-08-02T09:18:24 | 2024-09-18T20:29:00 | 2024-09-18T20:29:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vljfjulbfu | Will Iran launch a direct attack on Israel, in retaliation for the July Tehran assassination before August 4th (IDT) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-02T09:11:47 | 2024-08-03T19:37:28 | 2024-08-03T19:37:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-artgub15m1 | Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in November? | Resolves YES if they cut by more than 25bps in the November meeting. | 2024-08-02T08:17:16 | 2024-11-07T11:03:21 | 2024-11-07T11:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2j17d8x8w7 | Will Joe Biden Speak Live in person as the Keynote speaker at the Democratic Party Convention on Day 1? | If he is not present in person or he is not the Keynote speaker on Day 1, this will resolve to NO. | 2024-08-02T08:02:13 | 2024-08-19T20:44:35 | 2024-08-19T20:44:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-c74rs3d42h | Will the Director-General of the BBC, Tim Davie, resign/be fired by the end of August 2024? | The BBC director general is facing pressure and interviews after the latest BBC scandal and internal investigations.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/08/01/tim-davie-huw-edwards/ | 2024-08-02T04:24:45 | 2024-09-01T09:54:20 | 2024-09-01T09:54:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8fzu06q7gm | Will the UK Government announce that they are abolishing the two-child benefit cap by the end of 2024? | In 2017, the UK government introduced a "two-child cap" on Universal Credit. This effectively means that when the government calculates how much benefits (AKA welfare) a family is entitled to, they will treat a family with more than two children as having only two children.
This policy was opposed by Labour when they ... | 2024-08-02T03:53:02 | 2025-01-03T15:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:21:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-982ylvby4i | Will the Fed cut rates by more than 25bps in September? | At the time of writing, everyone is expecting a September rate cut of at least 25bps. Resolves YES if they cut by more than 25bps. | 2024-08-02T02:57:56 | 2024-09-18T11:01:14 | 2024-09-18T11:01:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4pw6ounzv9 | Will there be a confirmed case of locally acquired monkeypox Clade I outside of the African continent in 2024? | Follow up qn : https://manifold.markets/MitiSaksena/will-there-be-more-than-10-cases-of
Mpox Clade I has long been endemic in DRC. Over the last yr cases are up 160% and have been reported in Kenya, CAR, Rwanda.
Case fatality rate 3%
It is spread by close contact, sexual contact.
The poxes are quite visible (eas... | 2024-08-02T02:12:27 | 2024-11-09T16:38:05 | 2024-11-09T16:38:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-glv9kat2wn | Will Trump fire Chris LaCivita before Labor Day? | Former President Donald Trump churned through many campaign managers and strategists (including Corey Lewandowski, Paul Manafort, Kellyanne Conway, Steve Bannon, Brad Parscale, and Bill Stepien).
Will Trump fire Chris LaCivita as "co-campaign manager" by 11:59pm ET on September 1, 2024? The resolution sources are (... | 2024-08-01T17:17:55 | 2024-09-01T20:59:00 | 2024-09-02T04:35:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-05el1ng5r1 | Biden facilitates ceasefire in Ukraine before Election Day | Today’s prisoner exchange might be the first step to normalization of American-Russian relationships. Will Biden’s administration take the next step and help negotiate a deal between Russia and Ukraine before Election Day?
Any negotiations facilitated/supported by U.S. that lead to ceasefire or at least meaningful red... | 2024-08-01T13:43:00 | 2024-11-04T01:42:18 | 2024-11-04T01:42:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7l82m5r99q | Will Wesley So beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship? | The match will be played on 7th of August, 18:00 GMT.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A.
| 2024-08-01T12:48:54 | 2024-08-07T16:59:00 | 2024-08-07T21:13:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ob31f2lkm0 | Will Kanye West release his album Vultures 2 on August 2? | If Vultures 2 releases on August 2nd, 2024 (PST time) this resolves yes, otherwise it resolves no. | 2024-08-01T00:43:30 | 2024-08-02T23:59:00 | 2024-08-03T02:05:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-00k7fbox9x | Will 538 shut down before EOY 2025? | Will the website "538" cease to exist by the end of 2025?
If the brand is retired but ABC continues to maintain a similar feature, this will still resolve Yes. The question regards whether or not there continues to exist a set of active web pages known as "538" or similar (eg, "538 politics", or an altered number refl... | 2024-08-01T00:41:18 | 2025-03-05T13:37:13 | 2025-03-05T13:37:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cd715xmzch | Will there be an "Election 2024" Epic Rap Battle of History? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-08-01T00:20:17 | 2024-10-26T23:48:26 | 2024-10-26T23:48:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-guf14hqbvw | Will Trump pardon any of the convicted “J6ers” before 2028? | Recently in an interview Trump stated again that he will “absolutely” pardon those convicted from events that took place at the Capitol on Jan 6th.
In the three years since the Jan. 6, 2021, assault on the U.S. Capitol, federal prosecutors have charged more than 1,265 defendants across nearly all 50 states and D.C. an... | 2024-07-31T18:01:23 | 2025-01-21T19:55:27 | 2025-01-21T19:55:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zvkr514dud | Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before 2025? | Strikes on Israelis outside of Israel doesn't count. For the purpose of this question, Israel's borders are defined by the internationally recognized border plus the Golan Heights.
Strikes by Iranian proxies (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthies) doesn't count. | 2024-07-31T17:56:18 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:34:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nz9exwi2os | Will at least 10 people die from Iranian strikes on Israel before September 2024? | Strikes on Israelis outside of Israel doesn't count. For the purpose of this question, Israel's borders are defined by the internationally recognized border plus the Golan Heights.
Strikes by Iranian proxies (such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthies) doesn't count. | 2024-07-31T17:55:15 | 2024-08-31T15:06:35 | 2024-08-31T15:06:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j1lskxi2mh | Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) gross >$20 million during its (domestic) opening weekend? | Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo for "Trap" (2024).
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (e.g. typically the 3-day FSS weekend + previews).
For example, the "Domestic Opening" for the M. Night Shyamalan's "Old" was $$16,854,735. This is the equ... | 2024-07-31T15:59:59 | 2024-08-04T12:59:00 | 2024-08-05T20:33:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1fi2cciidb | Will Simone Biles win the gold medal in the Floor Exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🥇 | Simone Biles enters the floor exercise finals with the highest qualifying score:
1. BILES Simone - 14.600
2. ANDRADE Rebeca - 13.900
3. CHILES Jordan - 13.866
This market will close before the Floor Exercise final begins. | 2024-07-30T20:30:33 | 2024-08-05T05:20:00 | 2024-08-05T09:41:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lpdt97fujq | [EXPONENTIAL GROWTH?] Will Chappell Roan reach >45 million monthly listeners on Spotify during August? | Since January, Chappell Roan has enjoyed a shocking surge in popularity (without even releasing a new album):
[image]If this exponential growth continues, soon she'll have trillions of monthly listeners.
The original market resolved YES—she grew by another 40% within a month.
Last market: @/Ziddletwix/will-chappell... | 2024-07-30T17:09:58 | 2024-08-17T23:59:00 | 2024-09-02T03:53:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6id1l8qpzh | Will JD Vance be publicly accused of a sex crime before October 15? | Resolves with story of accusation in mainstream print or broadcast media. | 2024-07-30T15:27:00 | 2024-10-15T11:00:39 | 2024-10-15T11:00:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fkryieawcb | Will the Democratic VP win their own home state? | Will resolve "yes" if Kamala Harris and her VP candidate win the "home state" of the VP. This will be the state where they currently are a politician or reside. So for example, for the current top candidates it would be:
Kelly - Arizona
Shapiro - PA
Beshear - KY
Walz - Minn
Buttigieg - Michigan (where currently ... | 2024-07-30T13:27:33 | 2024-11-06T06:23:10 | 2024-11-06T06:23:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-frbyzs05rw | Will JD Vance be the Vice Presidential candidate on Election Day 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-30T09:58:38 | 2024-11-06T12:47:35 | 2024-11-06T12:47:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g92mt2fbuo | Will Nicolás Maduro's government produce non-obviously fake voting records supporting a Maduro win until 8/31? | Venezuela's opposition leader María Corina Machado has claimed to have enough voting records to prove that the opposition candidate Edmundo González won the election in Venezuela and that the victory claimed by Nicolás Maduro is fraudulent: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-29/venezuela-s-machado-says-opp... | 2024-07-30T08:01:27 | 2024-08-31T19:59:00 | 2024-08-31T20:09:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rsw65etdl2 | Will Nicolas Maduro be alive on Jan 1, 2025 | If he dies before 00:00 EST on Jan 1 2025 it will resolve to no, otherwise it will resolve to yes. | 2024-07-30T07:54:46 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:36:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-im1xjrx0cx | Will the IDF reservists who engaged in torture and rape of Palestinian prisoners be found guilty of a crime? | https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-idf-palestinian-prisoner-alleged-rape-sde-teinman-abuse-protest/
As of this market's creation, there is ongoing civil unrest in Israel over the arrest and detention of several IDF reservists over the alleged sodomization of a captive terrorist. Pressure from right-wing Isr... | 2024-07-30T07:54:12 | 2025-02-07T05:31:54 | 2025-02-07T05:31:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-amklevuaaf | Will Fabiano Caruana beat Alexey Sarana in Speed Chess Championship? | The match starts 18:30 GMT on Wednesday.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A. | 2024-07-30T05:05:29 | 2024-07-31T14:59:00 | 2024-07-31T15:08:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e2ounqavul | Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave beat Hans Niemann in Speed Chess Championship? | The match starts 15:00 GMT on Wednesday.
https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/games
If match is cancelled, it resolves N/A. | 2024-07-30T04:59:01 | 2024-07-31T14:59:00 | 2024-07-31T15:09:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mz2e5yjci9 | Will Lula recognize the election result in Venezuela? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-29T19:03:06 | 2024-08-13T23:52:33 | 2024-08-13T23:52:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a1yx5iz51v | Will Maduro lose power by Aug 31, 2024? | Will Nicolas Maduro be president of Venezuela continuously through Aug 31, 2024?
If he temporarily loses power for several hours to a couple days, but regains it - this will resolve No.
If he loses power and does not regain it by Sept 1, it will resolve Yes.
| 2024-07-29T18:01:37 | 2024-09-01T20:59:00 | 2024-09-02T02:05:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jkrvrwl2es | Will Harris lead in Nate Silver's election forecast on August 31st? | https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
Whoever has a higher chance of winning.
Yes=Harris
No=Trump
Will resolve as soon as data for the last day of the month is available. | 2024-07-29T15:21:11 | 2024-08-31T15:39:41 | 2024-08-31T15:39:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
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