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mani-yqe8z1nnkj
|
Will any state result "surprise" us in the 2024 Election?
|
This question regards the order of state margins in the 2024 election:
Current order per https://manifold.markets/election
Lean Dem:
CO: 88% D
NH: 85% D
ME: 84% D
NM: 79% D
MN: 79% D
VA: 78% D
Swing states:
MI: 55% D
PA: 51% D
WI: 50% D
NV: 58% R
GA: 59% R
AZ: 59% R
NC: 67% R
Lean R:
OH: 85% R
FL: 90% R
TX: 93% R
AK: 93% R
IA: 93% R
This will resolve as yes if any Lean Dem state votes more Republican than a swing state OR if any Lean Rep State votes more Democratic than a swing state.
Motivation for this question:
Nate Silver gave TX/FL 2/3% chance of being the tipping point, this is low compared to >10% each in 538s model.
JHK is more in line with 538s view (8-9%), but Nate Silver is highly respected. Is he right?
If this question resolves no, a consequence would be that the tipping point state must be one of the 7 swing states or ME-2 or NE-2 (which are ignored for this question)
|
2024-07-29T14:43:57
|
2024-11-08T10:41:36
|
2024-11-08T10:41:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mw85yv8lnu
|
Will there be an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 4.0 within 10 miles of San Francisco before September?
|
The earthquake must be 4.0 on the Richter scale or higher to resolve as yes.
The earthquake must happen before September 1st, 2024 (Pacific time).
The epicenter must measure 10 miles from San Francisco City Hall (37.77926668934307, -122.419389959379) for this question to resolve as yes.
|
2024-07-29T13:33:51
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T13:29:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dxmn2sm65n
|
Is the U.S Government about to spite-sell its seized Bitcoin?
|
The Monday after Trump announced he was going to turn all Bitcoin seized by law enforcement into a federal "Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile", the U.S. Government is reported to have started moving 2 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road crackdown.
Is the Biden administration about to sell its Bitcoin in order to preempt Trump?
Resolves YES if the U.S. federal government sells at least 20,000 bitcoins before the election.
|
2024-07-29T10:52:39
|
2024-11-07T08:59:29
|
2024-11-07T08:59:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mamixyco2l
|
UK Politics: Will the government's offer of a 23.3% pay rise for junior doctors be accepted by union membership?
|
Some background here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/29/junior-doctors-leaders-agree-pay-deal-over-two-years
Will likely resolve this once the vote is counted.
I may bet on this market.
|
2024-07-29T08:47:28
|
2024-09-18T16:55:00
|
2024-09-18T16:55:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-93ub0uqehz
|
Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members?
|
The Conservatives are choosing a new leader!
The proposed schedule is as follows:
Candidates must gather 10 nominations (including themself) by Monday 29th July to stand
Nominations close on Monday 29th and the 1922 Committee will confirm how many valid candidates have been nominated
MPs will vote in multiple rounds. In each round, the candidate with the least votes is eliminated (candidates who were close to losing quite often drop out at this point as well) and the others go through to the next round of voting
If there are more than four nominees, MPs will vote on candidates to whittle them down to the final four in time for Conservative Party conference
The final four candidates will give their pitch at the conference (29th Sep to 2nd Oct)
MPs will continue voting to get down to the final two candidates
The Conservative Party membership will vote on the final two candidates
The new leader will be announced on 2nd November
During two of the most recent leadership contests, it did not end up going to the members. In the 2016 contest, May and Leadsom were the final two candidates, but Leadsom withdrew and May got the job without a member vote. In the second 2022 contest, Johnson and Mordaunt withdrew before nominations closed meaning that Sunak won unopposed.
Will the race go to a member vote this time?
Related markets:
@/NoitUK/who-will-be-the-next-conservative-p
@/SimonGrayson/conservative-party-leadership-conte-gtn7nyie4o
@/SimonGrayson/will-suella-braverman-defect-to-ref
|
2024-07-29T03:30:32
|
2024-10-13T15:59:00
|
2024-10-14T02:01:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-91idj3t2cg
|
Will there be a US military intervention in Venezuela in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-28T21:42:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-20T11:35:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8lkxxbd83d
|
Will there be a civil war in Venezuela in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-28T16:51:39
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:12:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eupco0te2a
|
Will Donald Trump claim that any electoral votes were stolen from him in the election?
|
This is twist on the Trump publicly denies election results market. Trump only has to claim that any electoral vote was stolen from him.
If Trump claims that he should have received more of the electoral vote, this resolves YES. (Even if he wins)
Edit: originally this question said delegates and was updated to electors/electoral votes
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Traveel/donald-trump-publicly-denies-the-of)
|
2024-07-28T11:21:20
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:57:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rzeoxye70u
|
Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the first quarter of 2025?
|
For the purposes of this question a lunch is defined as both the Booster and the Starship making it to an altitude of at least 1,000 m.
|
2024-07-28T05:11:24
|
2025-01-17T04:18:10
|
2025-01-17T04:18:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o9ud80rdlx
|
Donald Trump attempts to overturn the official 2024 election results
|
Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones.
He must attempt to overturn the results legally or extra legally (e.g. 2020-related lawsuits and January 6th).
^as in the case of lawsuits for which the sought after recourse are results different from official ones
^as in the case of mobilizing your base with the goal of changing the results
However, denying the results, even publicly and to the indirect encouragement of others, does not rise to attempting to overturn them (merely hoping), but denying them and encouraging others (hoping AND acting to see it fulfilled, even indirectly) does.
Examples:
“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. I AM DEEPLY UPSET. DJT”: NO
“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. YOU MUST FIGHT FOR THE CORRECT OUTCOME AND WHAT IS RIGHT. DJT”: YES
“CROOKED KAMALA HAS STOLEN THE ELECTION. BIG DISGRACE TO THE COUNTRY. DJT” x57 after seeing a significant portion of his base fighting the results: YES
Deadline will not be extended for more than two years after the inauguration, even if he denies them the day after (the deadline). If he wins, this will resolve NO.
|
2024-07-28T01:12:49
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-21T01:06:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zu16ntsvq8
|
Donald Trump publicly denies the official 2024 election results
|
Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones (almost certainly Ballotopedia).
For example, in 2020 they were linked here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_results_certification_dates,_2020
Criteria for denial:
Donald Trump explicitly states the election was fraudulent, stolen, or illegitimate after its certification as to deny the legitimate winner (presumably him) the presidency. However, him suggesting it was biased or rigged (as he did in 2016: “in some parts”) does not on its own rise to denial of the results.
^this is meant to guard against a hypothetical 2016 YES resolution because he vaguely claimed the election to be rigged “to some extent in some parts,” after he won.
Resolves YES if his denial of results isn’t in keeping with their later certification (e.g. Trump denies Georgia’s blue results on November 7th, but they are not certified as such until November 20th, the market doesn’t resolve until November 20th).
The deadline will be extended for no more than a year after the inauguration.
Some scenarios/questions and their resolutions/answers:
>Trump wins the presidency but declares it stolen from the legitimate winner: YES.
(E.g. Kamala wins but Trump says he stole it from her)
>Trump wins the presidency and does not declare it stolen: NO
>Trump dies before he denies (according to the aforementioned criteria) the results: NO
>The results actually are fraudulent/illegitimate: hence why I listed the sources of deference. Even if the “true” results are not the “official” ones, this market resolves according to the “official” ones
(Say that we find out a year later that widespread voter fraud meant that the “official” results were wrong, the resolution remains unaffected)
>Donald Trump denies the results only in private: NO
(The only denial is a leaked conversation between him and Melania)
^Public: an audience outside of those he personally knows, with little care to who else may hear of it
(Trump denies it at a rally)
^Private: an audience for which the information is not ostensibly intended to escape
>Donald Trump denies them two seconds after the market’s final (possibly extended) deadline: NO
>Donald Trump shifts the results in an unnatural way:
Let’s say Texas is leaning blue on November 10th. The media declares it as such and everyone understands it to be blue. Texas, at this point, still does not have official results! Donald Trump successfully acquires a recount, and Texas goes red (November 11th). Texas certifies its results on November 25th. The market does NOT resolve YES because Trump never denied official results
|
2024-07-28T00:44:38
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-21T01:06:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xy9lgacz9b
|
🔥 Will More Than 1,355,802 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
|
Will More Than 1,355,802 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
RESOLUTION
Resolves YES if 1,355,802+ acres are burned in 2024.
Resolves NO if 1,355,802- acres are burned in 2024.
INFORMATION
Data may not be available for up to 1-2 weeks after the end of year.
Source Used: CALFIRE 2024
Prior 10 Years :(Average per year: 1,355,802)
2023: 324,917
2022: 331,360
2021: 2,569,386
2020: 4,304,379
2019: 277,285
2018: 1,975,086
2017: 1,599,640
2016: 669,534
2015: 880,899 (estimated)
2014: 625,540 (estimated)
Clarifications & Notes:
01/06/2024 ; None at this time.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2024-07-27T17:00:54
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00
|
2024-12-31T17:38:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lrioyyyeh1
|
Will there be an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris prior to November 5, 2024?
|
Resolves on report of an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris in the New York Times.
|
2024-07-27T15:44:09
|
2024-11-04T21:18:24
|
2024-11-04T21:18:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f3ltwntfp2
|
Will Kamala Harris talk about AI safety between now and Election Day?
|
Mentioning “AI safety” doesn’t count. For the purposes of this market, she needs to discuss concerns and proposals for regulating AI safety as currently being discussed among scholars of this topic.
Proposed resolution basis (updated 31 Jul 2024 per comments):
Kamala Harris mentions something directly related to the key concerns in AI Safety as described here:
Problems in AI safety can be grouped into three categories: robustness, assurance, and specification. Robustness guarantees that a system continues to operate within safe limits even in unfamiliar settings; assurance seeks to establish that it can be analyzed and understood easily by human operators; and specification is concerned with ensuring that its behavior aligns with the system designer’s intentions.
Download Full Report
Key Concepts in AI Safety: An Overview
Related Documents
Authors
Tim G. J. Rudner Helen Toner
Originally Published
March 2021
Topics
Assessment
Citation
Tim G. J. Rudner and Helen Toner, "Key Concepts in AI Safety: An Overview" (Center for Security and Emerging Technology, March 2021). https://doi.org/10.51593/20190040.
Examples of what would cause this market to resolve YES:
Commenting that AI systems need to:
operate within safe limits even in unfamiliar settings;
are understood easily by human operators; or
align with the system designer’s intentions.
Example that would not count for market resolution:
Commenting, “We need to make sure that AI systems are safe," without further elaborating.
|
2024-07-27T14:51:35
|
2024-11-05T07:04:11
|
2024-11-05T07:04:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p1zg84v1to
|
Will the French gov release an official statement addressing the negative reception of the Olympic Opening Ceremony?
|
Yesterday, the 2024 Summer Olympics opened in Paris with a 4-hour Opening Ceremony. While the boat parade and singers seemed to have a good reception, there were parts of the show that have led to public outcry from some people.
Specifically, a portion of the show was a drag performance that included a 'recreation' of Da Vinci's The Last Supper. For a variety of reasons (see below) there are people who are put-off, offended, angry, and more.
So far, the French Government has praised only the security forces, reporting "no incidents" at the 300,000 person ceremony. Will they release an official statement addressing - either acknowledging the controversy, apologizing, refusing to apologise, explaining why they chose this segment of the performance, etc - the response?
Close date is 1-week post-closing ceremony (happening Aug 11, Paris local time). If a statement comes before then, resolves yes. Otherwise, no.
Must be an official and direct statement from within the French Parliament or bodies related to the event (such as the organization committee). One-off quotes from people with a government title will likely not resolve this market - if it's a personal/individual opinion or mention, it's not an official statement.
Tracing Woodgrains posted this tweet thread, saying "I hated this performance and think it brought shame on the entire country of France."
A user posted this video clip from the show to twitter, currently at nearly 900k views, calling the performance "disrespectful toward many athletes."
"Mocking God" is trending, and there are any number of tweets you can find about this so I'll save an exhaustive list.
Articles:
NYPost: Apparent drag ‘parody of Last Supper’ at Paris 2024 Olympics opening ceremony sparks controversy
News.com.au: Aussie legend slams ‘demonic’ detail in opening ceremony that upsets billions
(NPR skipped over this part in their summary)
NPR: An ambitious Olympics opening ceremony showboats French culture on the Seine River
Daily Mail: Christians slam Paris Olympics for woke parody of the Last Supper during bizarre opening ceremony dubbed the 'worst ever' - mired by technical hitches and the weather that was only saved by Celine Dion
|
2024-07-27T07:16:25
|
2024-07-28T12:05:03
|
2024-07-28T12:05:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rj4a6bgm68
|
Is MrBeast a net positive for the world?
|
MrBeast creates videos to entertain and portrays himself as an altruistic person.
One aspect of that is donating some money from videos to charity.
On the other hand, he is criticized for promoting unhealthy food to children and using gambling-like tactics to increase sales and manipulate his audience.
This question will be resolved based on the results of a poll conducted on Manifold at the resolution date.
Recent video exploring this topic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k5xf40KrK3I
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
The poll will close in one week.
|
2024-07-27T01:55:37
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-08T22:30:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2mh59eid2y
|
Will Trump replace JD Vance before the end of August 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-26T22:01:25
|
2024-08-31T14:47:17
|
2024-08-31T14:47:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kbjer9f6sa
|
Will Team USA win the Olympic men’s basketball gold medal? 🏀🏆
|
After crushing Team Canada in Vegas, the US almost lost to Germany and South Sudan. They were losing, and should have lost, both games.
They are favouring LeBron and and injured KD, who hasn’t played in any of the warmup games at all, over younger players, or those who can play roles. They are playing LeBron and Embiid together, instead of AD who looks better but is a lesser star.
But the sports books still have them as a 7-1 favorite 🤷♂️
|
2024-07-26T20:37:47
|
2024-08-10T18:28:02
|
2024-08-10T18:28:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qgjwvy11yw
|
Will Google's search market share drop below 86% for any month before January 1st, 2025?
|
Resolves to "yes" if Google's search market share drops below 86% for any single month between 2024-08 and 2024-12, inclusive, as reported by statscounter
https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share
Otherwise resolves to "no."
If statscounter dies for some reason, we'd probably look for some similar, reliable source.
|
2024-07-26T19:36:11
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-06T20:37:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-irueir252y
|
Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump, Kennedy, Harris, Vance or other candidate?
|
Will there be any other serious assassination attempt before the election, against any of the President / VP candidates who are under Secret Service protection?
By serious attempt we mean
any shot, explosive, etc that had a realistic chance of success
any successful attempt that causes injury or worse
any serious "foiled" conspiracy that is reported and confirmed by the FBI and Secret Service
The later of course is most tricky. The candidate claiming a conspiracy to assassinate him or her does not count. Only threats of course also do not count.
We will be very stringent with what counts as a foiled attempt.
But for example if the Trump shooter was shot or apprehended before taking a shot at the President, that would surely count. If he was arrested ten miles away from the rally, that may count but would be less clear as we would need to rely on the FBI to explain how severe the threat had been.
This market will resolve after the election.
|
2024-07-26T15:14:21
|
2024-09-15T17:39:12
|
2024-09-15T17:39:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xn2f9i6yrl
|
Will there be a 50-50 tie in the Senate?
|
Resolves YES if neither party wins an outright majority of seats in the upcoming 2024 United States Senate elections. For the purposes of this question, senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) are considered to be Democrats.
Resolves NO if either party wins at least 51 seats.
|
2024-07-26T10:04:56
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-06T00:06:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z9ffznbaj3
|
Will France win more than 25 gold medals during the Olympic Games?
|
Will France win more than 25 gold medals during the Olympic Games ?
|
2024-07-26T03:06:15
|
2024-08-11T11:46:37
|
2024-08-11T11:46:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3ddpintqxs
|
Will the *de facto* president at the end of inauguration day be the person who the AP called the election for?
|
For the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This is intended to capture a wide range of shenanigans:
- significant voter fraud
- faithless electors
- issues with the certification process
- successful J6-type insurrections
- post-election assassinations or deaths
- legal delays
If the AP doesn't call the election by the end of November 2024, this question resolves N/A. I won't trade in this market.
|
2024-07-25T23:51:50
|
2025-01-21T19:27:47
|
2025-01-21T19:27:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xe44ohr8fo
|
Will JD Vance be elected Vice President of the United States in the 2024 Election?
|
After speculation Trump may change his mind about JD Vance, and the dem candidate swap, this seems more likely to be a tough question at the moment.
This will resolve YES if JD Vance is on the WINNING presidential ticket as Vice President in the 2024 election.
This will resolve NO if JD Vance is not elected Vice President of the United States in the 2024 election.
Will resolve when the election results are finalized and the president/vice president are sworn in, or when JD Vance is confirmed to be no longer on, and never returning to, the presidential ticket as vice president (won’t confirm until ballots are confirmed and he’s not on it).
|
2024-07-25T23:20:37
|
2024-12-01T22:51:29
|
2024-12-01T22:51:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vyeu4ho2r8
|
Will JD Vance be replaced as Vice Presidential candidate from the GOP ticket?
|
There has been some speculation that Trump regrets his vice presidential choice. Will he no longer be on the tickets by Election Day? His replacement for any cause will count.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/jd-vance-kamala-harris-trump-election
|
2024-07-25T20:39:08
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-11-05T00:59:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ougi4gucc
|
If Joe Biden is still US president after the November 5 election will he resign before the inauguration January 2025?
|
If Trump wins? If Harris wins?
|
2024-07-25T20:08:46
|
2025-01-20T07:58:29
|
2025-01-20T07:58:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2hsw1obytp
|
Will Kamala Harris’ VP Pick be Kelly or Shapiro (YES), or neither of them (NO)?
|
The two favorites for Kamala’s running mate are currently Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro. It is reported, Kamala will choose before August 7th.
This market resolves YES if/when Kamala Harris announces her pick for running mate being either Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro.
This market resolves NO if/when Kamala Harris announces anyone else being her running mate.
I will wait until the pick is confirmed by Kamala herself to resolve this.
comment if you have any questions or news 💙
|
2024-07-25T13:22:42
|
2024-08-06T06:15:52
|
2024-08-06T06:16:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c2dbsa5ah2
|
Will the Libertarian Party get over 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election?
|
The Libertarian Party is the third largest political party in the United States. During the last three presidential elections they have gotten the following results:
2012: 1.0%
2016: 3.3%
2020: 1.2%
Will they break 2% in the 2024 presidential race?
|
2024-07-25T07:05:41
|
2024-11-07T14:59:00
|
2024-11-08T00:07:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9lu785b3fk
|
Did a Google Deepmind AI really get Silver on IMO 2024?
|
The Verge posted an article claiming this which is now deleted. Possibly The Verge just accidentally broke the press embargo? If anyone has the full text that would be appreciated.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/24/24205267/google-deepminds-ai-makes-leap-in-math-reasoning?showComments=1
[image]
|
2024-07-24T23:11:14
|
2024-07-25T11:19:17
|
2024-07-25T11:32:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jjramn2yd6
|
Will Factorio: Space Age release on October 21, 2024
|
I need to see if I will regret taking the day off
|
2024-07-24T19:24:16
|
2024-10-21T20:17:49
|
2024-10-21T20:17:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tchljo1sna
|
Will Polymarket have Kamala Harris at >=45% odds for a complete week before the 2024 election?
|
As of July 24th, she's never breached 40%:
[image]Spikes that last <1 hour will be treated as artifacts and ignored when resolving.
|
2024-07-24T14:31:05
|
2024-08-13T20:20:05
|
2024-08-13T20:20:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p92vqxcgdo
|
Mistral Large 2 outperforms Llama 3.1 405b Instruct on Chatbot Arena on August 12th?
|
Mistral Large 2 reportedly outperforms on Arena Hard as well as MT Bench:
[image][image]
|
2024-07-24T14:23:29
|
2024-08-12T20:59:00
|
2024-08-12T23:22:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-llamtmsvfu
|
[Short-fuse] Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) receive the exact same "A" CinemaScore as "Deadpool" & "Deadpool 2"?
|
This market resolves YES if "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) receives an A CinemaScore, and it resolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore.
A- or lower resolves NO.
Exactly A resolves YES.
A+ resolves NO.
Context:
"Deadpool" (2016) and "Deadpool 2" (2018) each received an A CinemaScore.
Here's an infographic with the CinemaScores for other films in the MCU. A is the most common grade, but some score lower or higher.
You can search the CinemaScore website for more examples.
|
2024-07-24T14:11:54
|
2024-07-27T12:20:46
|
2024-07-27T12:20:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tb0vvhqffv
|
Will Sonoma County, California, ban factory farming this November?
|
On Nov 5th, 2024, Sonoma County will vote on whether to end Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (factory farms).
If the measure passes, 21 farms (together confining 3 million animals) in Sonoma County would have 3 years to either downsize or phase out their operations. The measure would also require the county to retrain or provide assistance to the people employed by these factory farms. If it passes, Sonoma would be the first county in the United States to ban factory farming.
Will Measure J pass?
People are excited: https://www.endfactoryfarming.vote/
and upset: https://www.noonmeasurej.com/
|
2024-07-24T13:06:48
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-08T15:47:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qtniycdvp4
|
Will Tim Walz be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024?
|
He is getting a lot of buzz as a dark horse pick.
|
2024-07-24T08:55:26
|
2024-08-06T07:08:02
|
2024-08-06T07:08:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0dkuqzk0hr
|
Will either Harris or Trump win the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
They don't have to become president, just win the election.
If Harris/Trump is just running as Vice President and their presidential candidate wins the election, this market would still resolve NO.
The market will resolve whenever AP News declares that only these two candidates have a chance to win or announces a winner.
This market is inspired by @April 's market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/April/will-either-joe-biden-or-donald-tru)
|
2024-07-24T03:39:09
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-06T02:46:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6gcyzgu50t
|
Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands at their first debate?
|
N/A if debate doesn't happen
|
2024-07-23T18:51:42
|
2024-09-10T09:59:00
|
2024-09-11T22:03:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f3nfyviz6t
|
[Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
|
Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26084/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
For this question to resolve as "Yes", Israel and Hamas must, before November 5th, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.
If there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve "No". The question will only resolve "No" if:
There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by November 4th 11:59PM PDT, or
Said agreement did not start effect at least by December 4th 11:59PM PDT, or
Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by January 4th 11:59PM PDT.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-07-23T17:39:18
|
2024-11-08T08:18:11
|
2024-11-08T08:18:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-npshj316l8
|
Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)?
|
This will resolve YES if Donald Trump is pronounced dead at or before 11:59pm EST.
|
2024-07-23T16:43:07
|
2024-11-04T21:40:13
|
2024-11-04T21:40:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yl0d22nbjj
|
Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)?
|
This will resolve YES if Donald Trump is pronounced dead at or before 11:59pm EST.
|
2024-07-23T16:42:49
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-04T21:40:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bggo51o0cd
|
Kamala president by Friday?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
|
2024-07-23T15:37:33
|
2024-07-27T14:59:00
|
2024-07-28T12:17:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-didlp1cbm0
|
Will Kamala Harris be an official speaker at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference, July 25-27?
|
Context:
[tweet]
|
2024-07-23T14:15:24
|
2024-07-27T13:55:23
|
2024-07-27T13:55:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uaw7sz49lv
|
Will a Conservative MP defect to Reform before the end of August?
|
Resolves yes if a sitting conservative MP defects to Reform UK by the end of August, as reported by BBC, otherwise no.
|
2024-07-23T13:08:31
|
2024-08-31T15:59:00
|
2024-08-31T20:59:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7aown2of37
|
Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election?
|
This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press.
|
2024-07-23T11:45:42
|
2024-11-06T14:10:47
|
2024-11-06T14:10:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kgvqw99fyr
|
Will Joe Biden die before Saturday?
|
Resolves YES if there is an official announcement of Joe Biden's death before market close at the end of Friday, July 26th.
Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2024-07-23T11:21:15
|
2024-07-26T23:59:00
|
2024-07-27T08:19:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2rbjs3a80k
|
Will Deadpool & Wolverine have biggest opening weekend ever for R-rated movie? [ahead of Deadpool I & II, It, Joker]
|
Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for "Deadpool x Wolverine" crossover movie.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut
"""
The film, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Reynolds, is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 million globally in its opening weekend. This would mark the biggest opening weekend ever for an R-rated movie. Domestically, the film is expected to debut with $160 million to $170 million, making it the biggest R-rated opening of all-time.
"""
[image]The record for biggest opening weekend for an R-rated movie is the original Deadpool at $284.5M ($152.2M domestic).
https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/box-office-deadpool-makes-history-865143/
[image]
Will the new movie top these marks? It will probably be close...
It will certainly play at more theaters... Deadpool was a smash hit at the time, and a bit surprising.
Since BoxOfficeMojo is a bit weird on reporting international opening weekends -- it provides the raw numbers but aggregates them weirdly -- we will wait for Hollywood Reporter to let us know what the weekend opening was.
To clarify on resolution...
-> this market will resolve YES if Deadpool x Wolverine grosses more than $284.5M globally this opening weekend according to reports
-> AND the Hollywood Reporter (or equivalent publication) reports it as the record for an R-rated movie release
In other words the BoxOfficeMojo numbers should be seen as unofficial until there's confirmation in the Hollywood press. And the number we shoot for is >$284.5M internationally... this weekend
|
2024-07-23T10:28:16
|
2024-07-29T11:06:39
|
2024-07-29T11:06:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7s825plj7
|
Will Biden's post-dropout speech be fake?
|
Resolves YES if the speech on July 24 is pre-recorded, AI generated speech, a body double, or otherwise not Joe Biden speaking live.
Otherwise, resolves no.
Resolves N/A if no speech.
|
2024-07-23T08:19:55
|
2024-07-24T19:17:51
|
2024-07-24T19:17:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-08xz18om2m
|
Will Trump drop out?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-23T07:33:02
|
2024-11-04T07:38:51
|
2024-11-04T07:38:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-faes8w465g
|
Will JD Vance be removed from the Trump ticket before the election?
|
resolves yes if Vance is replaced/removed from the Republican ticket on the national level, formally or informally
|
2024-07-23T07:17:07
|
2024-11-05T07:02:33
|
2024-11-05T07:02:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8inxpv5vhk
|
Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'?
|
Elon Musk is talking big: https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1815493761486708993. Says that Grok 3 will come out in December and 'should be' the most powerful AI in the world.
Resolves to YES if Grok 3 is, at the time of its release, plausibly the most powerful AI in the world according to my best judgment. Has to be at least as strong as all models publicly available at the time.
Resolves to NO if it is not the most powerful.
(Resolves NO if no such model is released by 7/23/25, to ensure this doesn't go on forever.)
As of 7/23/2024 Claude Sonnet 3.5 is IMO most powerful AI, but GPT-4o would also resolve to YES based on its position at #1 on Arena and other ways in which some people prefer it. Gemini 1.5 Pro or Advanced would not qualify, but would have counted prior to Sonnet 3.5 and GPT-4o.
(I will not take clarifying questions on my criteria here, it will be my subjective take on 'is this plausibly the best LLM I can access right now.')
Update 2025-05-01 (PST): - Reasoning models are a different class of AI and do not count for the purposes of resolving this market. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-07-23T06:49:29
|
2025-02-20T17:17:30
|
2025-02-26T13:43:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xy4myx2hdx
|
Will Elon Musk show up at the Bitcoin Nashville 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES, if Elon Musk becomes a guest on the official stage of the Bitcoin Nashville 2024, one of the largest Bitcoin conferences, taking place on July 25-27, 2024.
[image]
|
2024-07-23T05:19:25
|
2024-07-28T14:59:00
|
2024-07-29T05:42:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rk39psj8a5
|
Will Kamala Harris's VP pick be a straight white man?
|
See comments for further clarifcation.
|
2024-07-23T02:20:44
|
2024-08-06T06:25:06
|
2024-08-06T06:25:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wl2udkxyu8
|
Will there be public violence at the Democrat Convention in Chicago?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-23T02:10:16
|
2024-08-22T20:59:00
|
2024-08-23T10:30:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-201rxyiqwz
|
[Harris 🥥 Effect] Will there be a media-worthy national shortage of coconuts in the US before November 15th?
|
It has to be due to people buying too many coconuts, not because of some insect destroying the harvest, logistic problems, etc.
It has to occur in at least five different states.
It must be reported by at least two media outlets from the following list: Associated Press News, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, or Washington Post.
|
2024-07-23T02:08:52
|
2024-11-15T14:59:00
|
2024-11-16T01:56:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-763iku8rxm
|
Will Kamala Harris be President or Acting President in July?
|
The rumors are swirling...
slightly longer time horizon for this crazy polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-president-by-friday
|
2024-07-22T22:36:09
|
2024-08-01T20:59:00
|
2024-08-02T07:29:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jfc923d1b2
|
Will Joe Biden finish his term?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T22:33:59
|
2024-12-31T12:59:00
|
2025-01-20T11:49:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z5f15j2kso
|
Will Joe Biden die by noon NY time on August 1?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T22:30:25
|
2024-08-01T15:59:00
|
2024-08-02T14:06:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ch4bud7o04
|
Will Grok 3 be released by Dec 31, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T16:51:28
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:01:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fohbhsn2tx
|
Was Biden stepping down from re-election a coup?
|
I will not bet on this market.
If there is any overwhelming evidence that the announcement of Biden stepping down from the 2024 presidential election was any of the following, this will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Biden did not personally sign the letter stating he was stepping down
Biden did not authorize any statement about him stepping down, or if he did it was done under duress (blackmail, etc)
Biden did not have Covid (e.g. it was used as an excuse to facilitate the coup)
The resolution criteria may be modified as things become more clear, including the resolution date. I will ultimately use my own judgement for the final resolution, which is why I won't bet myself.
|
2024-07-22T15:50:16
|
2024-08-31T20:59:00
|
2024-09-01T06:22:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f7b851hsb1
|
Will Americans favour Kamala Harris over Joe Biden on election day?
|
This question will resolve to favourability ratings published by Civiqs.
According to Civiqs as of 22 July 2024, Kamala Harris' net favourable rating is -22% among registered voters. Joe Biden's net favourable rating is -25%.
Will Harris still be favoured over Biden on election day?
This question resolves YES if Civiqs polling on election day (5 November 2024) shows Kamala Harris' net favourable number (the integer on Civiqs website) is greater than that of Joe Biden, and resolves NO if Kamala Harris' net favourable rating is equal to or less than that of Joe Biden.
(https://civiqs.com/results/embed?snapshotUrl=results.embeds.civiqs.com/snapshots/cf79358e-1b61-47b9-aba9-fa165e54262f)(https://civiqs.com/results/embed?snapshotUrl=results.embeds.civiqs.com/snapshots/bab2f51d-4b0d-43e1-826e-a6415ab08177)
|
2024-07-22T15:35:03
|
2024-11-05T10:50:35
|
2024-11-05T10:50:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9401q1qyaf
|
Will Trump change his VP pick?
|
Resolves to YES if Trump’s VP pick is anyone but JD Vance on Election Day 2024
|
2024-07-22T14:23:15
|
2024-11-03T20:29:14
|
2024-11-03T20:29:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zk6042iis5
|
Will Joe Biden still be president by the end of July?
|
This market will resolve yes if at 11:59 pm on July 31st 2024 if Joe Biden is still officially president of the United States.
|
2024-07-22T13:33:34
|
2024-07-31T21:59:00
|
2024-08-01T07:50:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p5dqncqg3c
|
Is Joe Biden dead?
|
Will Joe Biden, the current President of the United States, be deceased by now or earlier, as of July 22, 2024? This includes death from any cause, whether natural or otherwise, occurring at any time up to and including today.
https://youtu.be/I7el16lk5nY?si=ngEgnR_alyvzhNC7 Biden calls into Harris campaign - but a lot of people seem to think that this might be a recording or AI.
If Biden is announced dead shortly after this phone call, like in the coming days, will be deemed staged (as in deliberately delayed) and this market still resolves yes.
If Biden makes any public VISUAL appearance, it will be considered authentic and this market resolves no, despite potential concerns about verification. Trust in the US government’s authenticity will be assumed in the absence of direct falsification evidence.
|
2024-07-22T13:11:36
|
2024-07-23T11:14:25
|
2024-07-23T11:14:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-buismz3qc2
|
Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T13:03:45
|
2025-01-18T17:39:05
|
2025-01-18T17:39:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1a8fv57i6z
|
Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T11:13:46
|
2024-08-06T07:07:41
|
2024-08-06T07:07:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vgb6rhkhbk
|
Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T11:12:58
|
2024-08-06T07:06:44
|
2024-08-06T07:06:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s7fh6ylcx5
|
Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T11:12:34
|
2024-08-06T07:07:51
|
2024-08-06T07:07:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7bim69svn6
|
Will Meta's new AI model Llama 3.1 405B rank #1 on LMSys leaderboards on August 12th?
|
AI people are very excited for Meta's new Llama 405B model. It is rumored to be coming out on Tuesday July 23rd, and a copy possibly already leaked.
https://deepnewz.com/ai/meta-s-llama-3-405b-set-release-on-july-23-2024-new-feature-3-1-3-days-left
[image]
The rumors are that the model will be the first open source model "better than GPT-4."
https://deepnewz.com/ai/meta-s-llama-3-1-405b-model-leaked-on-4chan-ahead-july-23-launch-size-820-gb
[image]Once the model is released, and has 2+ weeks to run on LMSys, where will it rank?
To be specific, we will check the first LMSys overall leaderboard table that's marked as on or after Monday August 12th. We may delay this if the model is released later than expected, but this will be updated in the rules if that is the unlikely case.
As usual with LMSys, we count statistical ties as reported on the leaderboards.
So a YES would result for a tie for first place or sole first place, presumably against the GPT-4o model that currently leads LMSys as of July 22nd.
https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard
[image]Claude 3.5 Sonnet currently ranks second, tied with Gemini...
|
2024-07-22T10:50:44
|
2024-08-12T20:59:00
|
2024-08-13T10:16:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rgu93u3tnu
|
Will Netanyahu meet Trump in July?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T10:09:05
|
2024-07-26T09:57:35
|
2024-07-26T09:57:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6puy0bj09l
|
Will Mitt Romney be the democratic parties nominee for the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T08:39:38
|
2024-08-20T16:19:49
|
2024-08-20T16:19:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zrzmttrigg
|
Fact Check: Will we find out that Joe Biden actually didn't have Covid, as Trump Claims?
|
Resolves YES if a consensus of credible reporting at market close (End of August) is that Joe Biden didn't actually have COVID-19 these past days. Otherwise, resolves NO.
Context:
[tweet]
|
2024-07-22T07:41:37
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-02T18:11:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i5b8hzjmvo
|
Will Kamala brand herself as Tough On Crime going into the election?
|
Will Kamala lean into her Copmala persona / prosecutorial background?
https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1815155883061739554
Conditional on winning the nomination.
This market is so I can bet against someone on the question. I'll resolve according to the judgement of whatever trustworthy third party we use to adjudicate our disagreement.
The kind of thing the judge(s) should be looking for:
Explicitly states that her administration will break from Joe Biden's policies
Matt Yglesias or Nate Silver call out the strategy in their newsletters
Any promise of Kamala's favorably impacts police supply/private prison stocks (and isn't immediately walked back)
She's criticized by other Democrats over the stance
[placeholder]
|
2024-07-22T06:52:41
|
2024-11-07T13:59:00
|
2024-11-10T11:54:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lpd3e2949m
|
Will Donald Trump appear on "Hot Ones" before 10/31/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T06:48:12
|
2024-09-13T05:59:11
|
2024-09-13T05:59:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jux8cafbk5
|
Will Kamala Harris appear on “Hot Ones” before 10/31/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T06:28:12
|
2024-11-03T17:03:48
|
2024-11-03T17:03:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xo0yv4bcz9
|
Will Trump shake the hand of the democratic nominee before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-22T04:51:15
|
2024-09-10T18:06:37
|
2024-09-10T18:06:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b8ssmf2dct
|
Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024?
|
Musk tweets:
This is a significant advantage in training the world’s most powerful AI by every metric by December this year
Most powerful as ranked on the lmsys leaderbord.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815341263102804072?s=46
|
2024-07-22T04:20:48
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T19:31:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dy3q03e1pj
|
Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala Harris for President?
|
Mitt Romney has been the most high profile senior Republican critic of Donald Trump.
In 2016, he claims he spoiled his ballot (writing in his wife's name who wasn't running for President) rather than bringing himself to vote for Trump or Clinton. In 2020 he again said that he didn't vote for Trump, though as far as I know he has never publicly said that he voted for Joe Biden.
Since then we have seen the attempted coup on 6th January 2021 and Trump has been found guilty of over 30 felonies by a jury of his peers. Romney has stepped up his criticism of Trump.
Will he go further this time and endorse Kamala Harris for President, either before or after she clinches the Democratic nomination?
An endorsement would include the following (or anything similar):
Stating that he is endorsing Harris for President
Saying that people should vote for Harris
Saying that he will be voting for Harris
It will not be enough to state that Trump is unfit, that people should not vote for Trump, etc. It must be a positive endorsement of Harris rather than an endorsement of "not-Trump".
|
2024-07-22T00:48:41
|
2024-11-06T15:59:00
|
2024-11-11T23:35:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nu0ggctc6i
|
Will the Democratic presidential candidate be favored to win after the DNC convention? (>50% win probability)
|
The next month will be critical for the new candidate, presumably Kamala Harris, to make the case to the electorate and make up the polling deficit.
I will resolve it one week after the DNC convention (8/19-22) to Yes if the Democratic candidate is at >50.0% probability on BOTH Manifold and Election Betting Odds.
|
2024-07-21T23:06:21
|
2024-08-29T08:52:16
|
2024-08-29T08:52:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-15e9056kwl
|
Will CNN call the 2024 US presidential election by midnight Pacific time on Nov 5th 2024?
|
Will they declare a projected winner by this time on the air?
|
2024-07-21T19:20:57
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T03:39:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3wdlechwym
|
Will Donald Trump Announce A U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2024
|
Will Donald Trump Announce A U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2024
|
2024-07-21T19:02:02
|
2024-07-27T14:25:35
|
2024-07-27T14:25:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ud2cn7dgl3
|
Will Trump do any more debates with any presidential candidate before election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-21T18:38:31
|
2024-09-11T08:16:28
|
2024-09-11T08:16:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pyd9g3fzzi
|
Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris?
|
Resolves yes if Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris for President in the 2024 election season.
An endorsement is a form of public support or approval. Endorsements are given to politicians and products. If you give something an endorsement, you're basically saying "I approve of this person or product." Celebrities give politicians an endorsement if they think you should vote for them.
In the context of this market, this will be an official statement (including social media post or quote in an article/interview or similar scenario) that she supports Kamala Harris as a candidate for President, including a statement that she will vote for Harris or encouraging others to do so. A general flattering comment about Harris or her character will not count - it must be a statement related to her viability to hold presidential office.
Any clarification, please ask. Any statement between market creation and election day.
|
2024-07-21T18:11:05
|
2024-09-10T20:11:28
|
2024-09-10T20:11:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ujxbfr8l5
|
Will Josh Shapiro be Kamala Harris’ running mate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-21T16:29:54
|
2024-08-06T08:32:19
|
2024-08-06T08:32:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ebnrr957mc
|
Will Trump's presidential odds drop below 50% on Polymarket by November 1?
|
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
Averaged price over 24 hours.
[image]New market: @/JTX/will-kamala-harriss-presidential-el
|
2024-07-21T16:26:04
|
2024-08-08T14:46:39
|
2024-08-08T14:46:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0d7rexcata
|
If Trump debates the next Dem Presidential nominee, will it be hosted by Fox News? [first Trump v. Harris debate]
|
Trump has posted the below on his Truth Social account, insisting that the next debate - if there is one - will be hosted by Fox News as other sources are "very biased." If Trump debates the next Dem Presidential nominee, will it be hosted by FoxNews?
eta: the market was written under the assumption that there may not be more than one debate, and that he was refusing to debate unless on FoxNews (as the below tweet and his ongoing insistence indicates). this market will resolve if the next - meaning, the first Trump v. Harris - debate is hosted by FoxNews. if on any other network when they debate for the first time, this market resolves no.
[image]resolves no if, for any reason, Trump does not debate the Dem nominee before the election.
|
2024-07-21T16:16:55
|
2024-09-11T08:26:02
|
2024-09-11T08:26:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zwoequ6t6s
|
Will Biden be president on Election Day 2024?
|
On the morning of November 5, 2024, will Joe Biden be President?
|
2024-07-21T16:13:02
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T21:25:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hfhceoqzcm
|
Will President Biden resign his Presidency to Kamala Harris before the newly elected President is installed in January?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-21T16:01:58
|
2025-01-20T16:43:20
|
2025-01-20T16:43:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ww2bbxobyf
|
Will 2024 Democratic VP be "a straight white male born in a swing state"?
|
Any one who has not publicly declared otherwise will be considered straight.
Swing states are: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
Where they are from will be determined based on where they were born.
|
2024-07-21T15:37:10
|
2024-08-07T21:26:10
|
2024-08-07T21:26:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7t5yvmyy5w
|
Will Joe Biden resign the US Presidency before the election November 5, 2024?
|
If Biden dies before the election this question is null and void.
|
2024-07-21T15:36:31
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T04:29:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6nbfir1u19
|
Will Kamala Harris be nominated via virtual roll call?
|
Resolves YES if Kamala Harris is nominated via virtual roll call before the DNC convention (currently scheduled for August 19).
Resolves NO if someone else is nominated or if Kamala Harris is nominated during the DNC convention.
|
2024-07-21T15:34:30
|
2024-08-05T23:50:03
|
2024-08-05T23:50:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qx3zyabe50
|
Will Trump refuse to debate Harris?
|
per this tweet:
[tweet]if Harris is the Democratic Presidential nominee, will Trump refuse to debate her? resolves for any reason given, whether it's as stated in the above tweet or something else. as Trump often makes inflammatory statements then recants, this market only resolves when it's absolute that there is not a debate and not when Trump makes a remark.
resolves NA if Harris is not the candidate
eta context from the comments:
when will the market resolve?
market resolves either when the two debate (No) or Election Day; any refusals or threats before then are insufficient to resolve this market as mentioned in the above description
what counts as a debate?
to reduce ambiguities, I will consider it a debate if it's called a Debate officially (by the host and participants); if it's marketed as a Town Hall or similar, I won't consider it a Debate
what if Trump's reasons are bad faith?
as the cited original tweet implies Trump may refuse for less-than-good-faith reasons ('illegitimate candidate'), I'll resolve based on his refusal even if it's due to strict and immovable conditions ("I won't debate her unless it's hosted by Fox News on Columbus Day and she wears an orange hat") and he tries to leverage this to shift blame to Harris; note that I'm trying to reduce the chances of a grey area but as none of us are sure what Trump will say, there is a nonzero chance of some subjectivity
adding more clarification due to another question. we're getting into the weeds a bit with semantics in this scenario but:
if Trump offers a debate with terms that could reasonably/technically be met (like only meeting on a network that's favourable to him) but Kamala refuses, I'm inclined to resolve this as No/not consider this for Yes if it's the final say on a debate.
if his statement is framed in such a way that it's the only way he'll debate her (akin to "I'm not debating her unless..."), that verbiage is more clearly a refusal and I'm inclined to resolve Yes if that's the final say/they don't debate.
|
2024-07-21T14:58:56
|
2024-09-10T18:23:10
|
2024-09-10T18:23:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-81pswmcq81
|
Will Biden be revealed not to have sent the tweets in which he dropped out?
|
As of this writing, Joe Biden‘s dropping out presidential campaign is attested only by tweets. Will those tweets turn out to have been sent without his knowledge or consent?
|
2024-07-21T14:51:27
|
2024-08-20T20:59:00
|
2024-08-21T03:33:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2hmv2m1hm5
|
Will Donald Trump debate a democrat presidential nominee other than Biden before the end of October?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-21T13:48:33
|
2024-09-11T07:59:10
|
2024-09-11T07:59:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-juhjwtgyhh
|
Will Kamala Harris be formally nominated as the Presidential nominee prior to the Democratic National Convention?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-21T13:04:00
|
2024-08-07T15:40:55
|
2024-08-07T15:40:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vsabrw5ocy
|
Will Kamala Harris have a serious challenger (Senator, House Rep, Governor) for the Democratic Presidential nomination?
|
Either a house rep, governor, or senator counts as a serious challenger.
|
2024-07-21T13:02:12
|
2024-07-28T10:15:01
|
2024-07-28T10:15:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-361vh0auoo
|
Will Kamala and Trump debate in September 2024?
|
resolves YES if kamala harris and donald trump debate in any format that is publicly listenable and/or viewable in the month of september 2024
|
2024-07-21T12:59:09
|
2024-09-11T04:24:39
|
2024-09-11T04:24:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9d5zbm53ti
|
Will there be a Trump/Harris debate in 2024?
|
Resolves election day if not sooner. Dueling town halls or similar will not count, they must appear at the same event.
|
2024-07-21T11:37:04
|
2024-09-10T18:04:25
|
2024-09-10T18:04:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nmdr9vpe8m
|
Will Simone Biles win the gold medal in the Individual All-around event at the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🥇
|
Simone Biles is widely considered to be the greatest gymnast of all time—she has 23 gold medals at the World Championships, 14 more than the nearest competitor. Despite, that, at the most recent Olympics in Tokyo, Simone only won two medals—many fewer than expected.
At this Olympic Games, Simone plans to bring the heat (and a floor routine with music from Taylor Swift & Beyonce). The biggest medal in gymnastics is the Individual All-Around where Simone Biles will face her teammate (and reigning Individual All-Around champion) Sunisa Lee and Brazilian phenom Rebeca Andrade among others chomping at the bit. Will Simone Biles fend off her challengers and win the Gold?
This market will close before the Individual All-Around final begins.
Check out more Simone Biles markets!
@/Ziddletwix/will-simone-biles-win-the-gold-meda-kv68d3cixa
@/Ziddletwix/which-medal-if-any-will-simone-bile
@/Ziddletwix/will-simone-biles-win-the-gold-meda-4xfdkuooym
|
2024-07-21T10:24:12
|
2024-08-01T09:15:00
|
2024-08-01T13:03:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w08nmnvidj
|
Will India win more than 1 gold medal
|
Will resolve yes if India has atleast two gold medals.
|
2024-07-21T10:21:56
|
2024-08-10T20:46:30
|
2024-08-10T20:46:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m71j0802uu
|
USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Inauguration Day?
|
This market will resolve to YES if on Inaugiratio Day January 20 2025 (or other day, if necessary), there will be at least 1 fatal casualty of some events directly related to the process of the elections of the President of the USA.
|
2024-07-21T09:05:22
|
2025-01-21T14:59:00
|
2025-01-21T15:34:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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