id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-yqe8z1nnkj | Will any state result "surprise" us in the 2024 Election? | This question regards the order of state margins in the 2024 election:
Current order per https://manifold.markets/election
Lean Dem:
CO: 88% D
NH: 85% D
ME: 84% D
NM: 79% D
MN: 79% D
VA: 78% D
Swing states:
MI: 55% D
PA: 51% D
WI: 50% D
NV: 58% R
GA: 59% R
AZ: 59% R
NC: 67% R
Lean R:
OH: 85% R
FL: 9... | 2024-07-29T14:43:57 | 2024-11-08T10:41:36 | 2024-11-08T10:41:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mw85yv8lnu | Will there be an earthquake with a magnitude of at least 4.0 within 10 miles of San Francisco before September? | The earthquake must be 4.0 on the Richter scale or higher to resolve as yes.
The earthquake must happen before September 1st, 2024 (Pacific time).
The epicenter must measure 10 miles from San Francisco City Hall (37.77926668934307, -122.419389959379) for this question to resolve as yes. | 2024-07-29T13:33:51 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T13:29:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dxmn2sm65n | Is the U.S Government about to spite-sell its seized Bitcoin? | The Monday after Trump announced he was going to turn all Bitcoin seized by law enforcement into a federal "Strategic Bitcoin Stockpile", the U.S. Government is reported to have started moving 2 billion dollars worth of Bitcoin seized in the Silk Road crackdown.
Is the Biden administration about to sell its Bitcoin i... | 2024-07-29T10:52:39 | 2024-11-07T08:59:29 | 2024-11-07T08:59:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mamixyco2l | UK Politics: Will the government's offer of a 23.3% pay rise for junior doctors be accepted by union membership? | Some background here:
https://www.theguardian.com/society/article/2024/jul/29/junior-doctors-leaders-agree-pay-deal-over-two-years
Will likely resolve this once the vote is counted.
I may bet on this market. | 2024-07-29T08:47:28 | 2024-09-18T16:55:00 | 2024-09-18T16:55:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-93ub0uqehz | Conservative Party leadership contest - will it go to the members? | The Conservatives are choosing a new leader!
The proposed schedule is as follows:
Candidates must gather 10 nominations (including themself) by Monday 29th July to stand
Nominations close on Monday 29th and the 1922 Committee will confirm how many valid candidates have been nominated
MPs will vote in multiple round... | 2024-07-29T03:30:32 | 2024-10-13T15:59:00 | 2024-10-14T02:01:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-91idj3t2cg | Will there be a US military intervention in Venezuela in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-28T21:42:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-20T11:35:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8lkxxbd83d | Will there be a civil war in Venezuela in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-28T16:51:39 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:12:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eupco0te2a | Will Donald Trump claim that any electoral votes were stolen from him in the election? | This is twist on the Trump publicly denies election results market. Trump only has to claim that any electoral vote was stolen from him.
If Trump claims that he should have received more of the electoral vote, this resolves YES. (Even if he wins)
Edit: originally this question said delegates and was updated to elect... | 2024-07-28T11:21:20 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:57:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rzeoxye70u | Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the first quarter of 2025? | For the purposes of this question a lunch is defined as both the Booster and the Starship making it to an altitude of at least 1,000 m. | 2024-07-28T05:11:24 | 2025-01-17T04:18:10 | 2025-01-17T04:18:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o9ud80rdlx | Donald Trump attempts to overturn the official 2024 election results | Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones.
He must attempt to overturn the results legally or extra legally (e.g. 2020-related lawsuits and January 6th).
... | 2024-07-28T01:12:49 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-21T01:06:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zu16ntsvq8 | Donald Trump publicly denies the official 2024 election results | Will use Ballotopedia (https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/ballotpedia/) or the FEC as sources for the official results. I will not resolve this until at least one lists the given results as the official ones (almost certainly Ballotopedia).
For example, in 2020 they were linked here: https://ballotpedia.org/Election_resul... | 2024-07-28T00:44:38 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-21T01:06:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xy9lgacz9b | 🔥 Will More Than 1,355,802 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season? | Will More Than 1,355,802 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
RESOLUTION
Resolves YES if 1,355,802+ acres are burned in 2024.
Resolves NO if 1,355,802- acres are burned in 2024.
INFORMATION
Data may not be available for up to 1-2 weeks after the end of year.
Source Used: CALFIRE 2024
Prior 10 Y... | 2024-07-27T17:00:54 | 2024-12-31T17:00:00 | 2024-12-31T17:38:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lrioyyyeh1 | Will there be an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris prior to November 5, 2024? | Resolves on report of an assassination attempt on Kamala Harris in the New York Times. | 2024-07-27T15:44:09 | 2024-11-04T21:18:24 | 2024-11-04T21:18:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f3ltwntfp2 | Will Kamala Harris talk about AI safety between now and Election Day? | Mentioning “AI safety” doesn’t count. For the purposes of this market, she needs to discuss concerns and proposals for regulating AI safety as currently being discussed among scholars of this topic.
Proposed resolution basis (updated 31 Jul 2024 per comments):
Kamala Harris mentions something directly related to the... | 2024-07-27T14:51:35 | 2024-11-05T07:04:11 | 2024-11-05T07:04:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p1zg84v1to | Will the French gov release an official statement addressing the negative reception of the Olympic Opening Ceremony? | Yesterday, the 2024 Summer Olympics opened in Paris with a 4-hour Opening Ceremony. While the boat parade and singers seemed to have a good reception, there were parts of the show that have led to public outcry from some people.
Specifically, a portion of the show was a drag performance that included a 'recreation' o... | 2024-07-27T07:16:25 | 2024-07-28T12:05:03 | 2024-07-28T12:05:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rj4a6bgm68 | Is MrBeast a net positive for the world? | MrBeast creates videos to entertain and portrays himself as an altruistic person.
One aspect of that is donating some money from videos to charity.
On the other hand, he is criticized for promoting unhealthy food to children and using gambling-like tactics to increase sales and manipulate his audience.
This questio... | 2024-07-27T01:55:37 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-08T22:30:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2mh59eid2y | Will Trump replace JD Vance before the end of August 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-26T22:01:25 | 2024-08-31T14:47:17 | 2024-08-31T14:47:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kbjer9f6sa | Will Team USA win the Olympic men’s basketball gold medal? 🏀🏆 | After crushing Team Canada in Vegas, the US almost lost to Germany and South Sudan. They were losing, and should have lost, both games.
They are favouring LeBron and and injured KD, who hasn’t played in any of the warmup games at all, over younger players, or those who can play roles. They are playing LeBron and Embii... | 2024-07-26T20:37:47 | 2024-08-10T18:28:02 | 2024-08-10T18:28:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qgjwvy11yw | Will Google's search market share drop below 86% for any month before January 1st, 2025? | Resolves to "yes" if Google's search market share drops below 86% for any single month between 2024-08 and 2024-12, inclusive, as reported by statscounter
https://gs.statcounter.com/search-engine-market-share
Otherwise resolves to "no."
If statscounter dies for some reason, we'd probably look for some similar, relia... | 2024-07-26T19:36:11 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-06T20:37:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-irueir252y | Will there be another serious assassination attempt against Trump, Kennedy, Harris, Vance or other candidate? | Will there be any other serious assassination attempt before the election, against any of the President / VP candidates who are under Secret Service protection?
By serious attempt we mean
any shot, explosive, etc that had a realistic chance of success
any successful attempt that causes injury or worse
any serious "... | 2024-07-26T15:14:21 | 2024-09-15T17:39:12 | 2024-09-15T17:39:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xn2f9i6yrl | Will there be a 50-50 tie in the Senate? | Resolves YES if neither party wins an outright majority of seats in the upcoming 2024 United States Senate elections. For the purposes of this question, senators Bernie Sanders (I-VT) and Angus King (I-ME) are considered to be Democrats.
Resolves NO if either party wins at least 51 seats. | 2024-07-26T10:04:56 | 2024-11-05T21:59:00 | 2024-11-06T00:06:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z9ffznbaj3 | Will France win more than 25 gold medals during the Olympic Games? | Will France win more than 25 gold medals during the Olympic Games ? | 2024-07-26T03:06:15 | 2024-08-11T11:46:37 | 2024-08-11T11:46:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3ddpintqxs | Will the *de facto* president at the end of inauguration day be the person who the AP called the election for? | For the 2024 US Presidential Election.
This is intended to capture a wide range of shenanigans:
- significant voter fraud
- faithless electors
- issues with the certification process
- successful J6-type insurrections
- post-election assassinations or deaths
- legal delays
If the AP doesn't call the election by the ... | 2024-07-25T23:51:50 | 2025-01-21T19:27:47 | 2025-01-21T19:27:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xe44ohr8fo | Will JD Vance be elected Vice President of the United States in the 2024 Election? | After speculation Trump may change his mind about JD Vance, and the dem candidate swap, this seems more likely to be a tough question at the moment.
This will resolve YES if JD Vance is on the WINNING presidential ticket as Vice President in the 2024 election.
This will resolve NO if JD Vance is not elected Vice Pres... | 2024-07-25T23:20:37 | 2024-12-01T22:51:29 | 2024-12-01T22:51:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vyeu4ho2r8 | Will JD Vance be replaced as Vice Presidential candidate from the GOP ticket? | There has been some speculation that Trump regrets his vice presidential choice. Will he no longer be on the tickets by Election Day? His replacement for any cause will count.
https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/jd-vance-kamala-harris-trump-election | 2024-07-25T20:39:08 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-11-05T00:59:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ougi4gucc | If Joe Biden is still US president after the November 5 election will he resign before the inauguration January 2025? | If Trump wins? If Harris wins? | 2024-07-25T20:08:46 | 2025-01-20T07:58:29 | 2025-01-20T07:58:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2hsw1obytp | Will Kamala Harris’ VP Pick be Kelly or Shapiro (YES), or neither of them (NO)? | The two favorites for Kamala’s running mate are currently Mark Kelly and Josh Shapiro. It is reported, Kamala will choose before August 7th.
This market resolves YES if/when Kamala Harris announces her pick for running mate being either Mark Kelly or Josh Shapiro.
This market resolves NO if/when Kamala Harris announc... | 2024-07-25T13:22:42 | 2024-08-06T06:15:52 | 2024-08-06T06:16:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c2dbsa5ah2 | Will the Libertarian Party get over 2% of the popular vote in the 2024 US election? | The Libertarian Party is the third largest political party in the United States. During the last three presidential elections they have gotten the following results:
2012: 1.0%
2016: 3.3%
2020: 1.2%
Will they break 2% in the 2024 presidential race? | 2024-07-25T07:05:41 | 2024-11-07T14:59:00 | 2024-11-08T00:07:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9lu785b3fk | Did a Google Deepmind AI really get Silver on IMO 2024? | The Verge posted an article claiming this which is now deleted. Possibly The Verge just accidentally broke the press embargo? If anyone has the full text that would be appreciated.
https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/24/24205267/google-deepminds-ai-makes-leap-in-math-reasoning?showComments=1
[image] | 2024-07-24T23:11:14 | 2024-07-25T11:19:17 | 2024-07-25T11:32:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jjramn2yd6 | Will Factorio: Space Age release on October 21, 2024 | I need to see if I will regret taking the day off | 2024-07-24T19:24:16 | 2024-10-21T20:17:49 | 2024-10-21T20:17:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tchljo1sna | Will Polymarket have Kamala Harris at >=45% odds for a complete week before the 2024 election? | As of July 24th, she's never breached 40%:
[image]Spikes that last <1 hour will be treated as artifacts and ignored when resolving. | 2024-07-24T14:31:05 | 2024-08-13T20:20:05 | 2024-08-13T20:20:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p92vqxcgdo | Mistral Large 2 outperforms Llama 3.1 405b Instruct on Chatbot Arena on August 12th? | Mistral Large 2 reportedly outperforms on Arena Hard as well as MT Bench:
[image][image] | 2024-07-24T14:23:29 | 2024-08-12T20:59:00 | 2024-08-12T23:22:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-llamtmsvfu | [Short-fuse] Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) receive the exact same "A" CinemaScore as "Deadpool" & "Deadpool 2"? | This market resolves YES if "Deadpool & Wolverine" (2024) receives an A CinemaScore, and it resolves NO if it receives any other CinemaScore.
A- or lower resolves NO.
Exactly A resolves YES.
A+ resolves NO.
Context:
"Deadpool" (2016) and "Deadpool 2" (2018) each received an A CinemaScore.
Here's an infographic ... | 2024-07-24T14:11:54 | 2024-07-27T12:20:46 | 2024-07-27T12:20:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tb0vvhqffv | Will Sonoma County, California, ban factory farming this November? | On Nov 5th, 2024, Sonoma County will vote on whether to end Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations (factory farms).
If the measure passes, 21 farms (together confining 3 million animals) in Sonoma County would have 3 years to either downsize or phase out their operations. The measure would also require the county to ... | 2024-07-24T13:06:48 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-08T15:47:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qtniycdvp4 | Will Tim Walz be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024? | He is getting a lot of buzz as a dark horse pick. | 2024-07-24T08:55:26 | 2024-08-06T07:08:02 | 2024-08-06T07:08:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0dkuqzk0hr | Will either Harris or Trump win the 2024 Presidential Election? | They don't have to become president, just win the election.
If Harris/Trump is just running as Vice President and their presidential candidate wins the election, this market would still resolve NO.
The market will resolve whenever AP News declares that only these two candidates have a chance to win or announces a win... | 2024-07-24T03:39:09 | 2024-11-05T14:59:00 | 2024-11-06T02:46:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6gcyzgu50t | Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands at their first debate? | N/A if debate doesn't happen | 2024-07-23T18:51:42 | 2024-09-10T09:59:00 | 2024-09-11T22:03:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f3nfyviz6t | [Metaculus] Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024? | Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26084/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
For this question to resolve as "Yes", Israel and Hamas must, before Novemb... | 2024-07-23T17:39:18 | 2024-11-08T08:18:11 | 2024-11-08T08:18:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-npshj316l8 | Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)? | This will resolve YES if Donald Trump is pronounced dead at or before 11:59pm EST. | 2024-07-23T16:43:07 | 2024-11-04T21:40:13 | 2024-11-04T21:40:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yl0d22nbjj | Will Donald Trump die before election day (November 5)? | This will resolve YES if Donald Trump is pronounced dead at or before 11:59pm EST. | 2024-07-23T16:42:49 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-04T21:40:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bggo51o0cd | Kamala president by Friday? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Vice President Kamala Harris is formally designated as President or Acting President of the United States at any point before July 26, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the... | 2024-07-23T15:37:33 | 2024-07-27T14:59:00 | 2024-07-28T12:17:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-didlp1cbm0 | Will Kamala Harris be an official speaker at the 2024 Nashville Bitcoin Conference, July 25-27? | Context:
[tweet] | 2024-07-23T14:15:24 | 2024-07-27T13:55:23 | 2024-07-27T13:55:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uaw7sz49lv | Will a Conservative MP defect to Reform before the end of August? | Resolves yes if a sitting conservative MP defects to Reform UK by the end of August, as reported by BBC, otherwise no. | 2024-07-23T13:08:31 | 2024-08-31T15:59:00 | 2024-08-31T20:59:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7aown2of37 | Will Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Election? | This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump wins a plurality of the popular vote in the 2024 US presidential election.
Resolution will wait until there is an overwhelming consensus, based on a consensus of credible reporting such as the Associated Press. | 2024-07-23T11:45:42 | 2024-11-06T14:10:47 | 2024-11-06T14:10:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kgvqw99fyr | Will Joe Biden die before Saturday? | Resolves YES if there is an official announcement of Joe Biden's death before market close at the end of Friday, July 26th.
Otherwise, resolves NO. | 2024-07-23T11:21:15 | 2024-07-26T23:59:00 | 2024-07-27T08:19:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2rbjs3a80k | Will Deadpool & Wolverine have biggest opening weekend ever for R-rated movie? [ahead of Deadpool I & II, It, Joker] | Analysts are projecting a huge opening weekend for "Deadpool x Wolverine" crossover movie.
https://deepnewz.com/movies/deadpool-wolverine-set-record-360m-global-opening-weekend-biggest-r-rated-debut
"""
The film, directed by Shawn Levy and starring Ryan Reynolds, is projected to earn between $340 million and $360 mil... | 2024-07-23T10:28:16 | 2024-07-29T11:06:39 | 2024-07-29T11:06:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7s825plj7 | Will Biden's post-dropout speech be fake? | Resolves YES if the speech on July 24 is pre-recorded, AI generated speech, a body double, or otherwise not Joe Biden speaking live.
Otherwise, resolves no.
Resolves N/A if no speech. | 2024-07-23T08:19:55 | 2024-07-24T19:17:51 | 2024-07-24T19:17:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-08xz18om2m | Will Trump drop out? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-23T07:33:02 | 2024-11-04T07:38:51 | 2024-11-04T07:38:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-faes8w465g | Will JD Vance be removed from the Trump ticket before the election? | resolves yes if Vance is replaced/removed from the Republican ticket on the national level, formally or informally | 2024-07-23T07:17:07 | 2024-11-05T07:02:33 | 2024-11-05T07:02:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8inxpv5vhk | Will Grok 3 be 'the most powerful AI in the world'? | Elon Musk is talking big: https://x.com/tsarnick/status/1815493761486708993. Says that Grok 3 will come out in December and 'should be' the most powerful AI in the world.
Resolves to YES if Grok 3 is, at the time of its release, plausibly the most powerful AI in the world according to my best judgment. Has to be at le... | 2024-07-23T06:49:29 | 2025-02-20T17:17:30 | 2025-02-26T13:43:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xy4myx2hdx | Will Elon Musk show up at the Bitcoin Nashville 2024? | This market will resolve YES, if Elon Musk becomes a guest on the official stage of the Bitcoin Nashville 2024, one of the largest Bitcoin conferences, taking place on July 25-27, 2024.
[image] | 2024-07-23T05:19:25 | 2024-07-28T14:59:00 | 2024-07-29T05:42:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rk39psj8a5 | Will Kamala Harris's VP pick be a straight white man? | See comments for further clarifcation. | 2024-07-23T02:20:44 | 2024-08-06T06:25:06 | 2024-08-06T06:25:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wl2udkxyu8 | Will there be public violence at the Democrat Convention in Chicago? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-23T02:10:16 | 2024-08-22T20:59:00 | 2024-08-23T10:30:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-201rxyiqwz | [Harris 🥥 Effect] Will there be a media-worthy national shortage of coconuts in the US before November 15th? | It has to be due to people buying too many coconuts, not because of some insect destroying the harvest, logistic problems, etc.
It has to occur in at least five different states.
It must be reported by at least two media outlets from the following list: Associated Press News, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journa... | 2024-07-23T02:08:52 | 2024-11-15T14:59:00 | 2024-11-16T01:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-763iku8rxm | Will Kamala Harris be President or Acting President in July? | The rumors are swirling...
slightly longer time horizon for this crazy polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/kamala-president-by-friday | 2024-07-22T22:36:09 | 2024-08-01T20:59:00 | 2024-08-02T07:29:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jfc923d1b2 | Will Joe Biden finish his term? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T22:33:59 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2025-01-20T11:49:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-z5f15j2kso | Will Joe Biden die by noon NY time on August 1? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T22:30:25 | 2024-08-01T15:59:00 | 2024-08-02T14:06:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ch4bud7o04 | Will Grok 3 be released by Dec 31, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T16:51:28 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:01:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fohbhsn2tx | Was Biden stepping down from re-election a coup? | I will not bet on this market.
If there is any overwhelming evidence that the announcement of Biden stepping down from the 2024 presidential election was any of the following, this will resolve YES. Otherwise NO.
Biden did not personally sign the letter stating he was stepping down
Biden did not authorize any statem... | 2024-07-22T15:50:16 | 2024-08-31T20:59:00 | 2024-09-01T06:22:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f7b851hsb1 | Will Americans favour Kamala Harris over Joe Biden on election day? | This question will resolve to favourability ratings published by Civiqs.
According to Civiqs as of 22 July 2024, Kamala Harris' net favourable rating is -22% among registered voters. Joe Biden's net favourable rating is -25%.
Will Harris still be favoured over Biden on election day?
This question resolves YES if Ci... | 2024-07-22T15:35:03 | 2024-11-05T10:50:35 | 2024-11-05T10:50:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9401q1qyaf | Will Trump change his VP pick? | Resolves to YES if Trump’s VP pick is anyone but JD Vance on Election Day 2024 | 2024-07-22T14:23:15 | 2024-11-03T20:29:14 | 2024-11-03T20:29:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zk6042iis5 | Will Joe Biden still be president by the end of July? | This market will resolve yes if at 11:59 pm on July 31st 2024 if Joe Biden is still officially president of the United States. | 2024-07-22T13:33:34 | 2024-07-31T21:59:00 | 2024-08-01T07:50:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p5dqncqg3c | Is Joe Biden dead? | Will Joe Biden, the current President of the United States, be deceased by now or earlier, as of July 22, 2024? This includes death from any cause, whether natural or otherwise, occurring at any time up to and including today.
https://youtu.be/I7el16lk5nY?si=ngEgnR_alyvzhNC7 Biden calls into Harris campaign - but a lo... | 2024-07-22T13:11:36 | 2024-07-23T11:14:25 | 2024-07-23T11:14:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-buismz3qc2 | Will Joe Biden ultimately give Jimmy Carter's eulogy, as per Carter's request? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T13:03:45 | 2025-01-18T17:39:05 | 2025-01-18T17:39:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1a8fv57i6z | Will Mark Kelly be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T11:13:46 | 2024-08-06T07:07:41 | 2024-08-06T07:07:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vgb6rhkhbk | Will Josh Shapiro be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T11:12:58 | 2024-08-06T07:06:44 | 2024-08-06T07:06:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s7fh6ylcx5 | Will Andy Beshear be the Democratic Party's nominee for Vice President in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T11:12:34 | 2024-08-06T07:07:51 | 2024-08-06T07:07:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7bim69svn6 | Will Meta's new AI model Llama 3.1 405B rank #1 on LMSys leaderboards on August 12th? | AI people are very excited for Meta's new Llama 405B model. It is rumored to be coming out on Tuesday July 23rd, and a copy possibly already leaked.
https://deepnewz.com/ai/meta-s-llama-3-405b-set-release-on-july-23-2024-new-feature-3-1-3-days-left
[image]
The rumors are that the model will be the first open source mo... | 2024-07-22T10:50:44 | 2024-08-12T20:59:00 | 2024-08-13T10:16:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rgu93u3tnu | Will Netanyahu meet Trump in July? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T10:09:05 | 2024-07-26T09:57:35 | 2024-07-26T09:57:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6puy0bj09l | Will Mitt Romney be the democratic parties nominee for the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T08:39:38 | 2024-08-20T16:19:49 | 2024-08-20T16:19:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zrzmttrigg | Fact Check: Will we find out that Joe Biden actually didn't have Covid, as Trump Claims? | Resolves YES if a consensus of credible reporting at market close (End of August) is that Joe Biden didn't actually have COVID-19 these past days. Otherwise, resolves NO.
Context:
[tweet] | 2024-07-22T07:41:37 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-02T18:11:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i5b8hzjmvo | Will Kamala brand herself as Tough On Crime going into the election? | Will Kamala lean into her Copmala persona / prosecutorial background?
https://x.com/SwannMarcus89/status/1815155883061739554
Conditional on winning the nomination.
This market is so I can bet against someone on the question. I'll resolve according to the judgement of whatever trustworthy third party we use to adjudi... | 2024-07-22T06:52:41 | 2024-11-07T13:59:00 | 2024-11-10T11:54:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lpd3e2949m | Will Donald Trump appear on "Hot Ones" before 10/31/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T06:48:12 | 2024-09-13T05:59:11 | 2024-09-13T05:59:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jux8cafbk5 | Will Kamala Harris appear on “Hot Ones” before 10/31/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T06:28:12 | 2024-11-03T17:03:48 | 2024-11-03T17:03:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xo0yv4bcz9 | Will Trump shake the hand of the democratic nominee before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-22T04:51:15 | 2024-09-10T18:06:37 | 2024-09-10T18:06:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b8ssmf2dct | Will xAI have the most powerful AI by December 2024? | Musk tweets:
This is a significant advantage in training the world’s most powerful AI by every metric by December this year
Most powerful as ranked on the lmsys leaderbord.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1815341263102804072?s=46 | 2024-07-22T04:20:48 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T19:31:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dy3q03e1pj | Will Mitt Romney endorse Kamala Harris for President? | Mitt Romney has been the most high profile senior Republican critic of Donald Trump.
In 2016, he claims he spoiled his ballot (writing in his wife's name who wasn't running for President) rather than bringing himself to vote for Trump or Clinton. In 2020 he again said that he didn't vote for Trump, though as far as I ... | 2024-07-22T00:48:41 | 2024-11-06T15:59:00 | 2024-11-11T23:35:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nu0ggctc6i | Will the Democratic presidential candidate be favored to win after the DNC convention? (>50% win probability) | The next month will be critical for the new candidate, presumably Kamala Harris, to make the case to the electorate and make up the polling deficit.
I will resolve it one week after the DNC convention (8/19-22) to Yes if the Democratic candidate is at >50.0% probability on BOTH Manifold and Election Betting Odds.
| 2024-07-21T23:06:21 | 2024-08-29T08:52:16 | 2024-08-29T08:52:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-15e9056kwl | Will CNN call the 2024 US presidential election by midnight Pacific time on Nov 5th 2024? | Will they declare a projected winner by this time on the air? | 2024-07-21T19:20:57 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T03:39:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3wdlechwym | Will Donald Trump Announce A U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2024 | Will Donald Trump Announce A U.S. Bitcoin Strategic Reserve in 2024 | 2024-07-21T19:02:02 | 2024-07-27T14:25:35 | 2024-07-27T14:25:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ud2cn7dgl3 | Will Trump do any more debates with any presidential candidate before election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-21T18:38:31 | 2024-09-11T08:16:28 | 2024-09-11T08:16:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pyd9g3fzzi | Will Taylor Swift endorse Kamala Harris? | Resolves yes if Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris for President in the 2024 election season.
An endorsement is a form of public support or approval. Endorsements are given to politicians and products. If you give something an endorsement, you're basically saying "I approve of this person or product." Celebrities giv... | 2024-07-21T18:11:05 | 2024-09-10T20:11:28 | 2024-09-10T20:11:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ujxbfr8l5 | Will Josh Shapiro be Kamala Harris’ running mate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-21T16:29:54 | 2024-08-06T08:32:19 | 2024-08-06T08:32:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ebnrr957mc | Will Trump's presidential odds drop below 50% on Polymarket by November 1? | https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024
Averaged price over 24 hours.
[image]New market: @/JTX/will-kamala-harriss-presidential-el | 2024-07-21T16:26:04 | 2024-08-08T14:46:39 | 2024-08-08T14:46:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0d7rexcata | If Trump debates the next Dem Presidential nominee, will it be hosted by Fox News? [first Trump v. Harris debate] | Trump has posted the below on his Truth Social account, insisting that the next debate - if there is one - will be hosted by Fox News as other sources are "very biased." If Trump debates the next Dem Presidential nominee, will it be hosted by FoxNews?
eta: the market was written under the assumption that there may not... | 2024-07-21T16:16:55 | 2024-09-11T08:26:02 | 2024-09-11T08:26:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zwoequ6t6s | Will Biden be president on Election Day 2024? | On the morning of November 5, 2024, will Joe Biden be President? | 2024-07-21T16:13:02 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-05T21:25:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hfhceoqzcm | Will President Biden resign his Presidency to Kamala Harris before the newly elected President is installed in January? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-21T16:01:58 | 2025-01-20T16:43:20 | 2025-01-20T16:43:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ww2bbxobyf | Will 2024 Democratic VP be "a straight white male born in a swing state"? | Any one who has not publicly declared otherwise will be considered straight.
Swing states are: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
Where they are from will be determined based on where they were born. | 2024-07-21T15:37:10 | 2024-08-07T21:26:10 | 2024-08-07T21:26:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7t5yvmyy5w | Will Joe Biden resign the US Presidency before the election November 5, 2024? | If Biden dies before the election this question is null and void. | 2024-07-21T15:36:31 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T04:29:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6nbfir1u19 | Will Kamala Harris be nominated via virtual roll call? | Resolves YES if Kamala Harris is nominated via virtual roll call before the DNC convention (currently scheduled for August 19).
Resolves NO if someone else is nominated or if Kamala Harris is nominated during the DNC convention. | 2024-07-21T15:34:30 | 2024-08-05T23:50:03 | 2024-08-05T23:50:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qx3zyabe50 | Will Trump refuse to debate Harris? | per this tweet:
[tweet]if Harris is the Democratic Presidential nominee, will Trump refuse to debate her? resolves for any reason given, whether it's as stated in the above tweet or something else. as Trump often makes inflammatory statements then recants, this market only resolves when it's absolute that there is not... | 2024-07-21T14:58:56 | 2024-09-10T18:23:10 | 2024-09-10T18:23:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-81pswmcq81 | Will Biden be revealed not to have sent the tweets in which he dropped out? | As of this writing, Joe Biden‘s dropping out presidential campaign is attested only by tweets. Will those tweets turn out to have been sent without his knowledge or consent? | 2024-07-21T14:51:27 | 2024-08-20T20:59:00 | 2024-08-21T03:33:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2hmv2m1hm5 | Will Donald Trump debate a democrat presidential nominee other than Biden before the end of October? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-21T13:48:33 | 2024-09-11T07:59:10 | 2024-09-11T07:59:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-juhjwtgyhh | Will Kamala Harris be formally nominated as the Presidential nominee prior to the Democratic National Convention? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-21T13:04:00 | 2024-08-07T15:40:55 | 2024-08-07T15:40:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vsabrw5ocy | Will Kamala Harris have a serious challenger (Senator, House Rep, Governor) for the Democratic Presidential nomination? | Either a house rep, governor, or senator counts as a serious challenger. | 2024-07-21T13:02:12 | 2024-07-28T10:15:01 | 2024-07-28T10:15:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-361vh0auoo | Will Kamala and Trump debate in September 2024? | resolves YES if kamala harris and donald trump debate in any format that is publicly listenable and/or viewable in the month of september 2024 | 2024-07-21T12:59:09 | 2024-09-11T04:24:39 | 2024-09-11T04:24:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9d5zbm53ti | Will there be a Trump/Harris debate in 2024? | Resolves election day if not sooner. Dueling town halls or similar will not count, they must appear at the same event. | 2024-07-21T11:37:04 | 2024-09-10T18:04:25 | 2024-09-10T18:04:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nmdr9vpe8m | Will Simone Biles win the gold medal in the Individual All-around event at the 2024 Paris Olympics? 🥇 | Simone Biles is widely considered to be the greatest gymnast of all time—she has 23 gold medals at the World Championships, 14 more than the nearest competitor. Despite, that, at the most recent Olympics in Tokyo, Simone only won two medals—many fewer than expected.
At this Olympic Games, Simone plans to bring the hea... | 2024-07-21T10:24:12 | 2024-08-01T09:15:00 | 2024-08-01T13:03:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w08nmnvidj | Will India win more than 1 gold medal | Will resolve yes if India has atleast two gold medals. | 2024-07-21T10:21:56 | 2024-08-10T20:46:30 | 2024-08-10T20:46:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m71j0802uu | USA: Will there be fatal casualties of the Inauguration Day? | This market will resolve to YES if on Inaugiratio Day January 20 2025 (or other day, if necessary), there will be at least 1 fatal casualty of some events directly related to the process of the elections of the President of the USA. | 2024-07-21T09:05:22 | 2025-01-21T14:59:00 | 2025-01-21T15:34:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.