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mani-6dyq2helda
|
Will Meta release the 405B weights in any form from 12:01 AM AM PDT and Midnight 12:00 PDT on July 23rd 2024
|
The weights MUST be from an offical source like Meta or torrents seeded by Meta, or Hugging Face offical release If the weights are leaked or faked this market resolved as a no.
|
2024-07-21T03:35:47
|
2024-07-23T11:57:22
|
2024-07-23T11:57:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yjb50f5wly
|
Will Secret Service director Kimberly Cheatle resign or be fired before end of July?
|
More and more leaks are coming out that Donald Trump was denied extra security by the Secret Service.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/secret-service-denied-trump-s-security-requests-two-years-before-pennsylvania
[image]Director Kimberly Cheatle has so far refused to resign, despite mounting pressure.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/secret-service-director-kimberly-cheatle-refuses-to-resign-amid-gop-senators-rnc
It is rumored she may resign this week, or as early as Monday July 22nd. Will she resign or be forced out before the end of the month?
This will be resolved according to official announcements. Track all developing news here, as well as alerts about any announcements from or about Ms. Cheatle.
https://deepnewz.com/entity/per/kimberly-cheatle
|
2024-07-20T17:12:12
|
2024-07-23T08:28:58
|
2024-07-23T08:28:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r0ye34lnrt
|
Will Biden be nominated before the Democratic convention?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is nominated as the Democratic candidate for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election through a virtual roll call before the start of the Democratic National Convention (DNC), currently scheduled for August 19, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The official announcement from the Democratic National Committee or any other credible news source confirming the nomination will be used to resolve this market.
Mirror of
https://polymarket.com/event/biden-nominated-by-virtual-roll-call-before-dnc?tid=1721491618538
|
2024-07-20T09:15:44
|
2024-07-21T12:25:05
|
2024-07-21T12:25:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3tc2iep98f
|
Will Biden have higher favorability than Trump at the end of July?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
|
2024-07-19T22:02:24
|
2024-07-30T21:09:51
|
2024-07-30T21:09:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8hgy7rim5w
|
Will Joe Biden speak at the Democratic National Convention?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-19T14:56:05
|
2024-08-20T03:57:42
|
2024-08-20T03:57:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lc3mljypbc
|
Will Kamala Harris endorse a candidate other than Joe Biden or herself for the 2024 presidential election?
|
Resolves YES if Harris endorses a candidate other than Joe Biden, and other than herself, before election day. Otherwise resolves NO on election day.
In particular, the market does not yet resolve if Harris endorses Biden or herself, since she might later endorse another candidate.
(The endorsement must be formal, and must be a recommendation to vote for the candidate, and not just an informal expression of approval.)
|
2024-07-19T10:17:30
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T05:27:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ecl40j5xs2
|
Will Suella Braverman defect to Reform UK?
|
As the race to be the next Tory leader gears up, one former favourite seems to be losing ground with her fellow MPs to the point where the media is reporting that she is “expected to” defect to Reform UK:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/suella-braverman-expected-defect-reform-tory-leadership-3179500
Will she defect to Reform UK this year?
This will resolve to YES if she publicly announces that she is defecting or if her party affiliation is shown as Reform on the parliamentary website here by the end of 2024 - https://members.parliament.uk/parties/commons
This will also resolve to YES if she spends some time as an independent MP before she becomes a Reform UK MP.
This will not resolve to YES if there is a merger between Reform and the Tories or some way that she is able to sit as both a Tory and a Reform MP.
|
2024-07-19T10:12:42
|
2025-01-04T03:35:30
|
2025-01-04T03:35:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f2inuwe3h5
|
Will the CEO of Crowdstrike (George Kurtz) resign or get fired in 2024 due to the global tech outages?
|
https://www.reuters.com/technology/crowdstrike-ceo-apologizes-tech-outage-says-systems-should-be-recovering-nbc-2024-07-19/
|
2024-07-19T07:58:25
|
2024-12-31T20:46:24
|
2024-12-31T20:46:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2fz845c4b2
|
Will Evan Gershkovich be released from Russian prison by end of 2024?
|
On July 19th, Wall Street Journal writer Evan Gershkovich was sentenced to 16 years in a Russian prison, on charges of espionage.
https://deepnewz.com/russia/russian-court-sentences-wsj-reporter-evan-gershkovich-to-16-years-high-security
[image]The US government has called for his release, as have media figures like Tucker Carlson. In his interview with Putin, Tucker asked for Gershkovich's release. Putin said that this is a matter between intelligence services, as the journalist was clearly also a spy. Indicating both his willingness to negotiate, but also that the US needed to give something for his release.
While it seems unlikely the Gershkovich will serve a large portion of his sentence, will he be released by end of 2024?
The market will resolve as YES if
Gershkovich is released from Russian custody by end of 2024
OR if that is announced and confirmed by the Russian government OR strong sourcing outside of the government [specifically the Wall Street Journal or equivalent]
In other words, after the election (or possibly before) -- will a deal be reached to release Evan Gershkovich from Russian custody, to return to the US.
If he dies in custody -- G-d forbid -- the market will resolve as NO.
|
2024-07-19T07:45:17
|
2024-08-01T10:06:00
|
2024-08-01T10:06:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4mebpabeil
|
Will Gpt-4.5 be released on July 25th? [Anything significantly better than gpt-4o counts.]
|
Rumors are running around again: https://x.com/kimmonismus/status/1814204315533263117?s=46
Anything significantly better than gpt-4o counts.
Release or announcement with examples both count.
|
2024-07-19T02:46:37
|
2024-07-26T03:17:33
|
2024-07-26T03:17:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dvhimjsq52
|
Will the CrowdStrike outage be mostly fixed (~>75%) by the end of Friday?
|
Pacific time. Things like airports, banks, hospitals, 911, etc. The 75% is subjective, if it isn't obvious me, Joshua, and Semiotic will resolve it by consensus. In cases like these there aren't possible good objective criteria, it's either subjective or have no market at all, and subjective is better than nothing imo.
My current intent is this is about public-facing functionality people use, things that users will notice. If a bunch of internal services for analytics or something are still down but users see a service that works we can't really measure that!
|
2024-07-19T01:17:34
|
2024-07-19T23:59:00
|
2024-07-22T17:53:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-de058ih7so
|
Was the CrowdStrike global outage caused by hacking or otherwise malicious action?
|
Resolves YES if someone, e.g. hackers, intentionally caused it, NO if it was an accident or mistake or similar.
|
2024-07-19T01:04:45
|
2024-07-26T23:59:00
|
2024-07-27T10:50:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h2yerznmjy
|
Will the 2024 Democratic VP nominee be a white man?
|
White according to US Census definition, male according to public identity.
Resolves after DNC confirmation for vice president.
|
2024-07-18T19:53:53
|
2024-08-20T12:54:02
|
2024-08-20T12:54:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nm71ijwku0
|
If Biden drops out will Republicans sue to keep him on the ballot?
|
Any Republicans, anywhere in the country, within 30 days.
Resolves 30 days after Biden drops (assuming he does). If Biden drops I will update the close date to the final. If Biden does not drop, will resolve N/A.
|
2024-07-18T17:15:41
|
2024-08-20T20:59:00
|
2024-08-23T06:28:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xwg98ypmz9
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Dutch Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on August 25, 2024.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
|
2024-07-18T11:06:57
|
2024-08-25T13:17:03
|
2024-08-25T13:17:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0bornkgklu
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-07-18T11:05:53
|
2024-07-28T07:26:29
|
2024-07-28T07:26:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cdum22pnbb
|
Will Primoz Roglic win the Vuelta a Espana 2024?
|
Resolves the same as this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/egroj/who-will-win-the-2024-vuelta-a-espa)
|
2024-07-18T03:11:07
|
2024-09-08T10:39:25
|
2024-09-08T10:39:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gplxkgf6bk
|
Biden will be diagnosed with long COVID in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-17T17:03:49
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T17:31:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7vh2k3b1bz
|
Will Joe Biden pass away before the end of his presidency, leading to Kamala Harris becoming the first female president?
|
Joe Biden has recently tested positive for a significant health condition. This question asks whether he will pass away before the end of his current term, resulting in Kamala Harris becoming the first female president by succession.
|
2024-07-17T15:54:31
|
2025-01-20T09:53:00
|
2025-01-31T23:24:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sm0chwxbsx
|
Will Joe Biden be confirmed to have a serious disease before the DNC?
|
Something like parkinson's or cancer
|
2024-07-17T15:51:33
|
2024-08-19T23:59:00
|
2024-08-21T12:16:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f64fsppv0v
|
Will Biden survive his most recent bout with Covid-19?
|
Will resolve YES a couple weeks after Biden announces he has tested negative if he is not dead, to account for rebound covid. Resolves NO if he dies before that.
|
2024-07-17T15:11:33
|
2024-08-06T23:59:00
|
2024-08-11T11:11:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-enmvwu0plz
|
Will Nancy Pelosi publicly call for Biden not to be the nominee, before August?
|
This market resolves YES if Nancy Pelosi publicly and directly advocates for Joe Biden not to be the Democratic Party's presidential nominee before market close at the end of July 2024. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-07-17T14:32:56
|
2024-07-21T19:47:15
|
2024-07-21T19:47:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-slgp3cxdju
|
Did Xi Jinping have a stroke?
|
Social media rumours and some initial reporting suggest that Xi Jinping might have suffered a stroke during the CCP’s third plenum for their 20th Central Committee.
Will resolve based on reporting from credible mainstream sources or announcements from Chinese authorities.
|
2024-07-17T12:59:29
|
2024-07-27T00:49:45
|
2024-07-27T00:49:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oss1pml9cq
|
Will there be a disaster this year with an economic cost of over $100 billion as of December 31, 2024?
|
The disaster can be natural or human-caused, and can happen anywhere in the world. It can be a series of events, as long as the events are related (e.g. a series of tornadoes in a region, a hurricane that causes flooding, etc.).
This question will resolve using the List of Disasters by Cost Wikipedia Article. To resolve "yes" there must be at least 2 citations from reputable sources verifying the number.
The question will resolve "no" on January 1, 2025 if there is no entry on the list between July 17, 2024 and December 31, 2024.
|
2024-07-17T10:30:25
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-16T22:17:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-blw1cu2mrg
|
[Metaculus] Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?
|
Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/26175/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as No if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-07-17T08:35:17
|
2024-07-23T08:42:10
|
2024-07-23T08:42:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xalxvqvpy8
|
Will Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) resign before the end of July?
|
This market resolves to YES if Robert Menendez announces his resignation from the US Senate before market close at the end of July 2024. Otherwise this market resolves NO.
If he is expelled from Congress, dies, or leaves Congress for any reason other than resignation, this market immediately resolves NO.
|
2024-07-16T10:31:53
|
2024-07-23T12:53:09
|
2024-07-23T12:53:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uyilxqv41s
|
Will at least 20 House/Senate Democrats sign a public letter opposing the plan to virtually nominate Biden early?
|
Context from Politico:
Dozens of House Democrats are organizing a plan to speak out against their own party’s effort to seal President Joe Biden’s nomination sooner than originally planned, which they argue stifles the intense ongoing debate about his candidacy, according to a lawmaker involved in the effort.
A drafted letter, circulated by Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) and obtained by POLITICO, offers the first public signal from Democrats since the weekend’s attempted assassination on former President Donald Trump that scores of their own members remain deeply unsettled about the future of Biden’s candidacy.
“It’s a really bad move by the DNC. Somebody thinks it’s a clever way to lock down debate and I guess by dint of sheer force, achieve unity, but it doesn’t work that way,” Huffman said in an interview. He declined to confirm the existence of a letter.
This market resolves YES if a public letter opposing the early nomination plan is signed by at least 20 House Members or Senators who caucus with the Democratic Party before market close at the end of Sunday, July 21st.
Multiple such letters with a combined total of 20 lawmaker's signatures would also be sufficient to resolve this market to YES.
If these criteria are not met by market close, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-07-16T10:11:44
|
2024-07-21T23:59:00
|
2024-07-23T15:21:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5aemhr6uhz
|
One month from today, will Israel have declared war on Hezbollah or Lebanon?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-16T08:06:14
|
2024-08-15T20:59:00
|
2024-08-16T00:54:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dzrz4immx4
|
Will the United States win gold in both Men's and Women's 5v5 basketball at the Paris Olympics
|
Resolves Yes if Team USA wins both gold medals. Resolves no if either the men's or women's team places anywhere other than gold.
|
2024-07-16T05:48:48
|
2024-08-11T08:25:24
|
2024-08-11T08:25:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dzce9owxef
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be appointed to replace JD Vance in the US Senate?
|
Ramaswamy has floated the idea: https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/07/15/rnc-live-updates-coverage/ramaswamy-for-senate-00168446
It is unclear when Gov Mike DeWine will make an appointment replacing Vance.
If DeWine announces he will appoint Ramaswamy as the replacement, this will resolve YES.
If Ramaswamy is’t appointed to the seat, but instead wins a later election for the seat, this will resolve NO.
|
2024-07-16T04:26:39
|
2025-01-31T09:33:19
|
2025-01-31T09:33:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n5dvsp80db
|
Will the bandage on Donald Trump’s ear fall off (or he decides not to wear one anymore) while at the RNC?
|
Resolves to YES if there is definitive photographic evidence that shows his right ear without any bandage or covering whatsoever. Must have been during the time the RNC is in process.
|
2024-07-15T20:45:50
|
2024-07-18T21:38:51
|
2024-07-18T21:38:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1rpuur6bix
|
Will Real Madrid beat Atalanta? ⚽ | 🏆 2024 UEFA Super Cup
|
Final winner of match after regular time and penalty shoot-out if applicable.
Match canceled, resolves N/A.
|
2024-07-15T15:11:27
|
2024-08-14T13:51:24
|
2024-08-14T13:51:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zklvjp54ov
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (RFK) endorse Trump for president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-15T13:14:29
|
2024-08-23T12:56:51
|
2024-08-23T12:56:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qsvdxvujh2
|
Will JD Vance win the 2024 Vice Presidential debate, according to opinion journalists?
|
On the day after the CBS News 2024 Vice Presidential debate is held, the date of which has yet to be finalized, a survey of the top articles linked from the homepage of CNN.com will be surveyed. A winner of the debate will be selected by the following criteria, in descending order, stopping at the first one that renders a clear decision:
Headlines that clearly and unequivocally state that Vance or the Democratic candidate won the debate
The most common opinion expressed by all articles posted the day after the debate
The first opinion expressed in the most prominent article
If JD Vance is the consensus winner, the market will resolve to YES. If the Democratic nominee is the consensus winner, the market will resolve to NO. If the debate is cancelled, the market will resolve to N/A.
The market will not resolve to N/A in the event of a "tie." In the case of a close call, I will ask for comments, and consult with Claude 3.5 Sonnet for its opinion, but I will solely render the final decision.
RELATED MARKETS:
@/SteveSokolowski/will-jd-vance-win-the-2024-vice-pre
|
2024-07-15T13:01:36
|
2024-10-02T20:59:00
|
2024-10-03T05:15:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-umbg5o46r1
|
Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and JD Vance before November?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-15T12:26:02
|
2024-08-05T22:37:41
|
2024-08-05T22:37:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7v4tchqpge
|
Will the FED cut rates more than once before the end of 2024?
|
A cut of any amount (25, 50 basis points, etc) at one meeting will count as one decision.
The first rate cut is rumoured to happen in September 2024. Any further rate cuts before the end of 2024 will resolve this to YES
|
2024-07-15T07:17:26
|
2024-11-07T11:09:17
|
2024-11-07T11:09:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pxjiamfuxn
|
Was Trump actually changed by the assassination attempt?
|
Note: The original market creator is no longer associated with this market. It will remain open and the @mods will resolve it instead when it closes.
On July 14, 2024, Donald Trump provided interviews to journalists, in which he stated that he was glad to be alive and that his survival had changed him. Trump stated that he was going to rewrite his convention speech, unify the country, and change the way his campaign was run.
People are often changed after significant events. Was Trump changed too?
This market will resolve to YES if, on November 30, 2024, it is clear that Donald Trump has run a less extreme campaign than he had been running before the attempt on his life. The @mods will make the sole judgment on whether Trump has changed, based on whether he has moderated according (but not limited) to the following criteria:
Whether Trump uses less hateful words during rallies, debates, and speeches
Whether Trump calls for violence (other than in foreign policy)
Whether Trump treats Biden gracefully when he wins, or concedes if he doesn't
Whether Trump is more respectful of political traditions, such as how to debate
The comparison is between the average of Trump's behavior in this campaign before the assassination attempt, compared to the average of Trump's behavior between July 13, 2024 and November 30, 2024.
Trump does not have to become a typical generic politican to have been changed. He only has to significantly and noticably behave in a less extreme manner than he did before July 13. Trump's policy positions are not relevant to this market.
The market will resolve to N/A if Trump dies before November 30, and to NO otherwise.
|
2024-07-15T07:10:22
|
2024-11-30T20:59:00
|
2024-12-04T15:24:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f2cxmu3658
|
Will Trump's messaging be more conciliatory one month after the assassination attempt?
|
Recent reporting indicates Trump has rewritten his RNC speech and intends to try and be more of a unifying figure. Many are skeptical, but some are not, saying that "near death experiences can change people".
This market resolves YES if, in my opinion, Trump's political rhetoric on August 13 is more conciliatory than it was on July 13. I will not trade in this market, and you shouldn't either if you don't trust me to resolve fairly. This market can resolve to a percentage if I have mixed feelings about how it should resolve.
|
2024-07-15T03:03:12
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-15T08:47:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xyyuhf54e5
|
Will Sam Altman endorse Donald Trump for president in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Sam Altman announces that he is supporting or voting for Trump. Must name Trump specifically. A donation would count, if it is confirmed that Altman personally made a donation to Trump's campaign.
A private statement or endorsement would not count.
Resolves NO if none of the above happens before the election.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not the nominee on election day.
|
2024-07-14T23:09:51
|
2024-11-09T17:13:54
|
2024-11-09T17:13:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bdjmavo0zg
|
Was the attempted assassination of Donald Trump at all connected to Rhode Island?
|
Context:
[image]This market resolves YES if there is proof that the attempted assassination of Donald Trump has any connection to the state of Rhode Island. If there is no evidence of this by market close, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-07-14T21:36:26
|
2024-07-21T23:59:00
|
2024-07-28T14:12:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wt4d9y4dzo
|
Will Donald Trump use the Fifty Cent song "Many Men" in any public appearance during the 2024 campaign?
|
This is intended to resolve to "Yes" if he uses "Many Men" as walk-on music for a rally, RNC speech, or licenses it for use in a TV ad. Incidental uses (e.g. someone blasting it on their Bluetooth speaker during a Trump rally) will not count. I will not be betting in this market, and will use my discretion when resolving edge cases.
Per a Twitter question: yes, an instrumental version that's recognizably the same song will resolve to yes. Per comments: if Mr. Cent himself performs, this counts.
|
2024-07-14T19:17:10
|
2024-11-05T14:38:14
|
2024-11-05T14:38:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e5kotsmjy6
|
Will Trump be googled more than Youtube every day before the end of the Republican National Convention this week?
|
This will be based on Google Trends in the US, using the 30 day view:
[image]This shows the peak search traffic on each day for the two search topics. Trump's search interest spiked after the attempt on his life, and may spike again during the Republican National Convention which will be held from Monday to Thursday.
I will check on Friday, June 19th to see what Google shows for Saturday-Thursday. If Trump's search interest was higher than Youtube on each of those days, this market resolves YES. If it was ever tied or lower, this market resolves NO.
Google trends can sometimes display different values to different people depending on when you check it, so note that this will resolve just based on what is displayed when I resolve this market on Friday. Be careful betting based on incomplete data.
|
2024-07-14T13:58:38
|
2024-07-19T21:46:23
|
2024-07-19T21:46:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r7j24xmgfs
|
Will Trump directly invoke or parallel himself to Teddy Roosevelt's failed assassination attempt before next week?
|
Will Trump compare himself to Teddy Roosevelt and this quote "Ladies and gentlemen, I don't know whether you fully understand that I have just been shot, but it takes more than that to kill a Bull Moose."
|
2024-07-14T13:25:55
|
2024-07-21T23:59:00
|
2024-07-22T00:22:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-woi3gp04j5
|
If The FED cuts, will the Dems win the presidency?
|
This question resolves Yes if the markets below resolve as Yes and Democratic Party, respectively.
This question resolves N/A (I will ask a mod) if Tomek’s market resolves No.
This market resolves No if the markets below resolve as Yes and Republican Party, respectively.
9/18 edit - The FED cut
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-fed-cut-rates-at-their-septemb)(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-2024-us-pr-f4158bf9278a)
|
2024-07-14T12:21:27
|
2024-11-06T05:16:49
|
2024-11-06T05:16:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rj7qpha2wj
|
Will Trump describe himself as a "changed man" by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves if he references himself with this exact combination of words (in any context).
|
2024-07-14T02:11:45
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T23:26:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gp3sviilar
|
Trump will pick J.D. Vance to be his VP (2024)
|
Trump will choose/select/nominate JD Vance as his running mate for the 2024 US presidential election.
(Does not have to be his first choice in case he switches VP candidates before the election, they do not have to win the election, Vance does not need to be VP first if they win but Trump cannot occupy office due to prison/death/other, etc. Be literal here, it’s how it reads on the label.)
|
2024-07-14T00:34:22
|
2024-07-15T20:23:40
|
2024-07-15T20:23:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tayeftx6ce
|
Will there be evidence linking the first Trump shooter to Nick Fuentes or the Groyper movement by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if they release evidence to the public and/or uncover social media interactions that verifiably show that he was a fan of the groyper movement, by my judgement.
|
2024-07-13T23:36:04
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:56:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y992xpdae8
|
Will Trump copy Reagan's "missed me" stunt in a future rally?
|
After his assassination attempt, Reagan famously had his assistants pop balloons in the audience during his rallies so he could nonchalantly reply "missed me", and continue with his speech. This was done during multiple rallies and proved to be extremely popular among the public.
Video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5UowNDaxRqU
Will Trump copy this stunt at least once publicly before the end of the 2024 US presidential election season? Question will resolve positively if Trump copies this stunt, or another stunt that uses a similar formula at least once in a televised setting.
|
2024-07-13T21:09:23
|
2024-11-05T13:08:46
|
2024-11-05T13:08:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a9cequz17
|
Will the head of the Secret Service resign within the next 90 days?
|
Will Kimberly Cheatle, the Director of the U.S. Secret Service, resign, be fired, or for any other reason no longer be the director of the Secret Service before October 12, 2024?
|
2024-07-13T19:36:42
|
2024-07-23T08:09:10
|
2024-07-23T08:09:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r4zrmdwcqm
|
Will Mark Zuckerberg endorse Trump for the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T18:48:07
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T02:51:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sslw9f9fkx
|
Was the Trump shooter biologically a woman?
|
Biologically women defined as having two X chromosomes.
|
2024-07-13T18:37:12
|
2024-07-29T14:08:33
|
2024-07-29T14:08:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ubztdmccro
|
Did Trump take a shot to his chest?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T17:59:03
|
2024-07-15T00:51:48
|
2024-07-15T00:51:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6pdmys2un0
|
Will Trump tweet a photo of him being shot within a week?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T17:44:39
|
2024-07-20T23:59:00
|
2024-07-21T02:43:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ex2eiisfp1
|
Will Trump attend tonight's UFC event in Denver?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is physically present at the July 13 UFC event in Denver, according to reliable media reporting.
Sources close to Donald Trump are claiming that despite today’s Assassination Attempt at a Campaign Rally in Pennsylvania; the Former President will still be in Attendance at tonight’s UFC Event in Denver.
https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1812285207900492153?t=LfaEjbXT1wUioKROFoqe7g
|
2024-07-13T17:42:20
|
2024-07-14T15:56:53
|
2024-07-14T15:56:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qk6cwzbftl
|
Was the Trump shooter a republican or right-winger?
|
Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Center-right is still right-wing, this is from the perspective of american politics.
For example: If they posted about as much centrist, progressive, and conservative content, resolves NO. If they have only posted only one right-wing meme and no other political content ever, resolves NO, but a small amount of right-wing posts would resolve YES. Can resolves based on archives of their social media accounts, media reports, etc.
|
2024-07-13T17:42:18
|
2024-08-10T23:59:00
|
2024-08-23T18:03:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-luve7exngz
|
Was the Trump shooter a progressive, democrat, leftist, or otherwise lean left?
|
Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Center-left is still left, this is from the perspective of american politics.
For example: If they posted about as much centrist, progressive, and conservative content, resolves NO. If they have only posted only one progressive meme and no other political content ever, resolves NO, but a small amount would reolve YES. Can resolves based on archives of their social media accounts, media reports, etc.
|
2024-07-13T17:36:11
|
2024-08-10T23:59:00
|
2024-08-23T18:03:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6hp1db5dwr
|
Did the trump shooter have any diagnosed mental illness?
|
Close date isn't binding and may be extended as long as information is coming out. If the person's identity is reported on, resolves YES if that fact is present in media reports and NO if not. Resolves N/A in the (unlikely) case information about the person doesn't come out.
Note that this includes 'mild' mental illnesses so long as there's a diagnosis and it's reported
|
2024-07-13T17:34:47
|
2024-08-10T10:54:00
|
2024-08-20T01:38:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i1egzukm0y
|
Was the Trump shooting a false flag?
|
False Flag (wiki link for definition)
Needs to be reported in investigation by major news source(s); won't resolve based on twitter pundits. I'll give time for conflicting sources and investigations to come out.
What might matter:
coordination with Trump or his team
shooter's intent (to stop Trump vs. to rally Trump supporters)
What might not matter:
real gun
whether Trump was hit
shooter's death
Because of the possibility of a contentious resolution, I won't trade. It might also become necessary for me to put together a panel of neutral judges and/or resolve to percent. The intent remains to prefer a YES or NO resolution with as much clarity and transparency as possible.
This has a close date of Nov 5th (election day). It might be relevant to keep it open longer but I currently believe that the truth of the matter will be moot by the time the election happens. Open for discussion.
|
2024-07-13T17:26:09
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T13:48:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8a9fhgry25
|
Will Trump suggest that maybe someone should try to assassinate an opponent of his before Election Day?
|
Examples of things that would resolve Yes:
“Many people are saying maybe Obama deserves a moment like that, but I disavow!”
“Imagine sleepy Joe in my position, bleeding from the head, but he wouldn’t be able to stand back up, he’s too low energy.”
Example of things that would be insufficient:
“No one should ever do something so crazy, so nasty, as try to kill a politician, not even Joe Biden, much as I do not like him.”
“Obama had some assassination attempts too, but we want trials for these people, we want law and order, not violence!”
|
2024-07-13T16:58:28
|
2024-11-08T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T07:14:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mkwnn4y9ma
|
Did Trump stage his own shooting?
|
Resolves YES if proven that Trump knew he was going to be shot on the 14th july 2024.
Resolves NO if proven otherwise, or if there is clear consensus that this could have been a lethal assassination attempt.
Otherwise resolves N/A.
|
2024-07-13T16:05:55
|
2024-07-30T10:42:02
|
2024-07-30T10:42:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nzpbomdyis
|
Was anyone killed at the Trump rally on July 13th?
|
NYT: “It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.”
|
2024-07-13T16:05:33
|
2024-07-14T16:34:36
|
2024-07-14T16:34:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n7mg98w3b
|
Was there more than one Trump shooter?
|
NYT: “It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear.”
Resolves YES if more than one person shot at Trump at his rally on July 13th.
NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.
NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation e.g. one person betting a lot at the last second to move the market) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.
|
2024-07-13T16:03:55
|
2024-07-24T16:01:16
|
2024-07-24T16:01:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ah5nz352dn
|
Will Trump make a statement in July implying Biden tried to have him assassinated?
|
Will resolve according to my opinion on whether the statement implies this
|
2024-07-13T16:01:48
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T08:13:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l2ajhwaf8x
|
Will the shooter at the Trump rally identify as LGBTQ+?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T15:49:07
|
2024-09-13T09:06:14
|
2024-09-13T09:06:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vvsbd1dsx3
|
Will the person who fired shots at the Trump rally turn out to be a Democrat or Leftist?
|
As judged by me if the record isn't clear enough
If they never figure out who it is, resolves NA at the end of the market
If it is inconclusive i will 50% or NA by my judgement
|
2024-07-13T15:37:54
|
2024-08-23T19:07:40
|
2024-08-23T19:07:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dn6ohrdfsx
|
Was Trump shot anywhere besides the ear?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579\n\nResolves YES if a bullet or bullet-like projectile hit Trump's body anywhere but the ear. \n\nNOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.\n\nNOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation e.g. someone betting a lot to move the market at the last second) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market."
|
2024-07-13T15:37:51
|
2024-07-30T19:55:53
|
2024-07-30T19:55:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9d7apucdez
|
Will someone be identified and charged with firing shots at the Trump rally by the end of July?
|
resolves NO if dead before charging
@/strutheo/will-someone-be-identified-and-char
[image]
|
2024-07-13T15:36:43
|
2024-07-14T00:15:26
|
2024-07-14T00:15:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q9os5lw7dp
|
Will more than 100 people in the US die due to civil unrest in the next month?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T15:34:13
|
2024-08-12T15:59:00
|
2024-08-12T16:03:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a7dco2ttmq
|
Will someone be identified and charged with firing shots at the Trump rally by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves NO if they are dead before charging
[image]
|
2024-07-13T15:33:33
|
2024-07-14T00:14:55
|
2024-07-14T00:14:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pet8kkqmwn
|
Did someone intentionally shoot at Trump on July 13th?
|
NYT: "It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear."
Resolves YES if someone intentionally shot a bullet or other bullet-like projectile* at Trump on July 13th. Resolves NO if accidental discharge or ricochet caused something to shoot towards Trump.
*I am using bullet-like projectile to mean something that is for all intents and purposes is a bullet but may not technically be a bullet. For example, I would not count a BB gun pellet since it is not plausibly lethal like a bullet would be.
|
2024-07-13T15:21:58
|
2024-07-23T19:41:42
|
2024-07-23T19:41:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dbz33aefsq
|
Did Trump get shot? [hit by bullet]
|
NYT: "It sounded what could be gun shots interrupted Trump’s rally in Pennsylvania. Trump was hurried off the stage and appeared to be bleeding by his ear."
Resolves YES if a bullet or other similar bullet-like projectile hit or grazed him on July 13th https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1812251989759418579
Glass does not count.
NOTE #1: I will share my reasoning in advance of my resolution so traders have an opportunity to object. If I am unsure on the closing date or after hearing trader's objections, I would extend the deadline to allow more evidence to arrive.
NOTE #2: If I am unsure AND it is highly unlikely new evidence will arrive, I would decide between resolving based on a Keynesian beauty contest (resolves to current % correcting for any market manipulation) OR resolving based on an external forecast (e.g. another prediction market such as Metaculus or Polymarket, a poll of Manifold users, or asking an AI forecaster). Please share in the comments if you think KBC or one of these external forecast options would be better. Planning to update NOTE #2 once I decide which option is better for the health of the market.
|
2024-07-13T15:20:44
|
2024-07-30T19:55:23
|
2024-07-30T19:55:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3d1frqc32f
|
Will RFK drop out of the election before the end of September?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-13T09:46:16
|
2024-08-23T13:00:45
|
2024-08-23T13:00:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xwmchcim3o
|
Will RFK drop out before Biden?
|
Resolves YES if RFK formally drops out of the election before Biden does
Resolves NO if Biden drops out of the presidential race before RFK suspends his campaign
Resolves 50% if both are still campaigning at the time of the election
|
2024-07-13T09:05:44
|
2024-07-21T12:58:07
|
2024-07-21T12:58:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w70h6i4a3n
|
Within a month of the 2024 Olympics, will any Olympic athlete attempt to "defect" or seek asylum?
|
Presumably to France or the EU, but not necessarily. Any athlete who "goes missing" but for whom an attempt at asylum or defection isn't publicly revealed doesn't count.
Only an attempt is required. Must be a registered competitor in the 2024 Summer Olympics.
Articles seem to suggest that this is a common occurrence at every Olympics, but how frequently isn't always known publicly as the IOC doesn't officially track asylum seekers. So another way of asking this question is: "Will there be a high-profile case of defection at the 2024 Olympics?"
A List of Some Past Notable Defections
^ No idea if that will be kept up to date in time for this market. Could be a good source, but doesn't necessarily prove the negative.
|
2024-07-13T02:05:33
|
2024-08-23T18:20:49
|
2024-08-23T18:20:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rzxfobl8y7
|
Will OpenAI make available to the public any product using Strawberry technology before the end of 2024?
|
OpenAI is reportedly working on a project called Strawberry. Strawberry is a continuation of the Q* project and is intended to create AI with "Human-like" reasoning skills.
https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-working-new-reasoning-technology-under-code-name-strawberry-2024-07-12/
This market will resolve yes if and only if OpenAI states that some technology it has made available to the public utilises Strawberry technology before 1/1/2025- else no.
I will not trade in the market.
|
2024-07-12T19:09:52
|
2024-09-15T02:45:54
|
2024-09-15T02:45:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ya0imoirsf
|
Will RFK Jr. win ANY state in the 2024 US presidential election?
|
Resolves to FEC-published vote totals.
Winning a congressional district in Maine or Nebraska counts.
Faithless Electors DO NOT COUNT.
|
2024-07-12T18:03:50
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-07T12:07:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fwpzf6sz9i
|
If Biden drops out of the election, will it be in July?
|
YES if he drops out in July
NO if he drops out in another month
NA if he does not drop out
@/strutheo/if-biden-drops-out-of-the-election-zbtpb5zwkf
|
2024-07-12T14:49:42
|
2024-07-21T14:45:24
|
2024-07-21T14:45:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-whw7id7wsp
|
Will Hillary Clinton be the 2024 Democrat presidential nominee?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-12T13:05:37
|
2024-08-06T12:16:24
|
2024-08-06T12:16:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v60lep4lpg
|
Will fanfiction.net be accessible at the end of 2024?
|
As of this morning, fanfiction.net's domain-registration has expired, removing the straightforward path to accessing the site. Do we expect them to get it back up and running before the end of the year, at the currently-expired domain?
Market resolves Yes if, at the end of 2024, I can type "fanfiction.net" into the address bar of a generally-working web browser and be taken to the fanfic archive which has been historically hosted at that domain. Redirects are fine; needing to go directly by IP address, or to type in a different domain, or suchlike will lead to a No resolution, as will the archive being entirely unavailable. 'at the end of 2024' should be interpreted loosely, with a few days' error margin, in case of temporary outages; if the site happens to be down at 11:59pm on December 31st, but was up a day earlier and is up again a day later, that will still resolve to Yes.
|
2024-07-12T10:26:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:18:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mbf49ugnew
|
Will Joe Biden drop out of the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to "Yes".
If Joe Biden does not drop out or is not forced to withdraw from the 2024 Presidential Election by 12:01 AM ET on November 5, 2024, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Joe Biden or his official/legal representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2024-07-12T09:49:05
|
2024-07-21T14:56:14
|
2024-07-21T14:56:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6sp8tde5go
|
If Joe Biden drops out, will a reliable media outlet cover the story at least 6 hours in advance?
|
Question resolves YES if a big and reliable media outlet like Associated Press News, CNN, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Reuters, or Washington Post covers the dropout with an unofficial confirmation at least 6 hours before President Joe Biden officially announces his dropout via letter, speech, etc.
Local news, conspiracy websites, or comments by individual users on Manifold will not be sufficient.
This market will be resolved as N/A if President Joe Biden does not drop out before the end of the National Democratic Convention.
|
2024-07-12T00:44:42
|
2024-07-21T11:14:32
|
2024-07-22T14:10:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5lvl53x77j
|
If Biden drops out and Kamala becomes the presidential nominee, will her vice president running mate be a white man?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-11T19:16:30
|
2024-08-07T11:57:33
|
2024-08-07T11:57:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k8ejt04yv1
|
Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) win 1000GM NY Invitational?
|
He won his first 2 games. Will he win the tournament?
Current standings and results: https://www.chess.com/events/2024-1000gm-six-day-summer-invitational-im-c/results
|
2024-07-11T13:10:39
|
2024-07-14T22:22:23
|
2024-07-14T22:22:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2iumgkuk50
|
If Biden Drops Out, Will Trump Debate The New Democrat Presidential Nominee Before The Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-11T12:55:01
|
2024-09-11T23:15:56
|
2024-09-11T23:15:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xybo3i91ly
|
If Biden drops out in July, will Kamala be the nominee for presidential candidate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-11T11:09:03
|
2024-07-30T21:21:04
|
2024-07-30T21:21:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m3lnd2im6x
|
If Biden drops out in favor of Kamala Harris, will she win the election against Trump?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-11T10:31:25
|
2024-11-07T13:08:09
|
2024-11-07T13:08:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vre0cjql1p
|
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US presidential election?
|
If Biden does not do this before August, this market will be cancelled and mana traded will be returned.
If Biden does drop out and endorse Harris, this market resolves YES if she wins the 2024 US Presidential Election and NO if she does not.
See the following market for base rate:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/will-joe-biden-endorse-kamala-harri)
|
2024-07-11T10:25:23
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:08:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-msy4scbm7v
|
Will TSLA reach $375 before 8pm EST on 8/8/2025?
|
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >=$375 at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 in the year 2025 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.
Adjusts if stock splits
|
2024-07-11T08:47:23
|
2024-12-06T08:58:49
|
2024-12-06T08:58:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wk1brfs5ar
|
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 15th August show positive growth?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 15th August.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (June in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-dzep0jjomt
@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-p0uttyljmm
@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202
|
2024-07-11T00:22:44
|
2024-08-14T23:40:56
|
2024-08-14T23:40:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zf7yuwwo0j
|
Will "Deadpool & Wolverine" gross >$1 billion (worldwide) within a month of release?
|
At market close (August 27th), I will check BoxOfficeMojo. This market resolves YES if the "WORLDWIDE" gross displayed is >$1 billion.
Details
Box office reporting has a delay, so I added +1 day to the close date to better capture the spirit of "within a month". [1]
All that matters for the purpose of resolution is what BoxOfficeMojo displays at market close.
Example: "Deadpool 2" currently lists a "WORLDWIDE" gross of $785,896,632.
For informal context, "Black Panther" crossed $1 billion in 26 days, while "Jurassic World" only needed 13 days (according to news outlets—this market only resolves based on BoxOfficeMojo).
[1]. I don't expect this to have any impact—the key delay is international gross (which roughly updates ~weekly), but the 26th is a Monday and BOM basically always updates its international estimates by EOD Monday (I pushed it to Tuesday just to be safe).
"DEADPOOL & WOLVERINE" DASHBOARD
|
2024-07-10T14:36:48
|
2024-08-13T08:20:42
|
2024-08-13T08:20:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5m8jjf7xms
|
Neither the Republican nor Democratic candidate (at the moment, Trump and Harris) will concede defeat by Dec. 5, 2024.
|
Resolves when either Trump or Harris concede defeat on camera by December 5, 2024, one month after election day.
|
2024-07-10T14:13:35
|
2024-11-06T14:44:51
|
2024-11-06T14:44:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2pfu7ov7td
|
The result of the US Presidential election will not be certified by Jan. 6, 2025.
|
If Congress certifies the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves NO. If Congress does not certify the presidential election by end of day Jan. 6, 2025, this market resolves YES.
|
2024-07-10T14:02:37
|
2025-01-06T11:14:03
|
2025-01-06T11:14:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d2gt0asaww
|
Will Kamala Harris drop out before election day?
|
Update: She has officially received the nomination (which was the first condition of this market). This market is now about if she will drop out.
|
2024-07-10T12:45:54
|
2024-11-05T05:43:53
|
2024-11-05T05:43:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rcnlsui1u1
|
Will Joe Biden announce that his decision to stay in the race is "final" before July 12th?
|
For context, today Nancy Pelosi said that the Democratic Party was still waiting on Biden to decide if he was running, and Jim Clyburn said he had "no idea" if Biden's decision to stay in the race was "final".
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden himself confirms that his decision is "final".
He must either use the word himself to describe his decision, or he can give an unequivocal "yes" to a direct question about if his decision is final. Statements by his campaign or press secretary are not sufficient to resolve this market, but a written statement or tweet could count. Simply saying "I am running" is not sufficient, he must say that it is his final decision.
If there is no such confirmation that his decision is final before market close at the end of Thursday July 11th in Pacific Time, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-07-10T10:33:38
|
2024-07-11T23:59:00
|
2024-07-12T07:25:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kjxaa7tdrr
|
Will any world leaders be assassinated by the end of 2024?
|
World leader means the/a main head leader of a sovereign country recognised by the UN. E.g a president or prime minister NOT just a parliament member. For countries with more then one president such as Bosnia and Herzegovina it can be any of their 3 presidents.
The world leader must be proved to have been killed (assassinated) and not just have died by mysterious or questionable circumstances.
The end time for this to occur is the 31st of December 2024 at 23:59.
|
2024-07-10T07:07:00
|
2024-12-31T11:13:56
|
2024-12-31T11:13:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-alc571awrw
|
Will Trump actually speak at a Bitcoin convention in July?
|
[image]
|
2024-07-09T21:39:41
|
2024-07-27T12:59:27
|
2024-07-27T12:59:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u6k8lckrtl
|
Will TSLA close above $275 on Aug 8th?
|
Similar to @/MolbyDick/will-tesla-stock-reach-275-by-88-of-e836ca33649e , but will be resolved based on the closing price on 8/8
|
2024-07-09T18:48:36
|
2024-08-08T12:59:00
|
2024-08-08T14:18:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xic43i06oz
|
England beats Netherlands ⚽ July 10th Semi-Final
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-09T13:26:15
|
2024-07-10T13:59:00
|
2024-07-10T21:13:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u28lxredyt
|
Will Btc reach $60.000 until the end of 11 July?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-09T09:58:19
|
2024-07-11T14:32:42
|
2024-07-11T14:32:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e2on2l8r3b
|
Biden cognitive test in July?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Joseph Biden takes a test specifically for measuring his cognitive capacity, and it is publicly reported that he took such a test, between July 1 and July 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
|
2024-07-09T09:45:17
|
2024-08-01T14:59:00
|
2024-08-02T16:06:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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