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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-0c6hrrpbeq
|
If the Democrats switch candidates, will they win the election?
|
YES if the Dems win with a candidate other than Biden
NA if they do not switch candidates
NO if the Dems lose with a candidate other than Biden
|
2024-07-09T07:39:54
|
2024-11-07T13:07:49
|
2024-11-07T13:07:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cfhr6in9lw
|
Will the Euro 2024 finale be decided by penalty shoot-out?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-09T01:32:51
|
2024-07-14T13:53:37
|
2024-07-14T13:53:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ds18hsc542
|
Will Taylor Swift cameo in Deadpool and Wolverine?
|
Resolves YES if she appears in the movie in any role, even if it is just her voice used for a character. Will still resolve YES if she is not credited on IMDB, if it is still confirmed by independent sources.
[image]https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310
|
2024-07-08T23:08:30
|
2024-07-24T07:33:43
|
2024-07-24T07:33:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4jdt0sxw40
|
Will Biden drop out before July 27th?
|
If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue his campaign before July 27th 12:00 AM Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
|
2024-07-08T20:39:31
|
2024-07-22T09:48:25
|
2024-07-22T09:48:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qtudbliwjj
|
Did the IDF intentionally kill Israelis on October 7th as part of the Hannibal Directive?
|
Previously, rumors that the Israeli military had intentionally attacked vehicles suspected of carrying hostages during the 10/7 attacks had been dismissed by mainstream media. However, recent investigations have yielded evidence and admissions that this protocol is really in practice, and was employed on the day in question. It now appears that the IDF attacked any such vehicles attempting to re-enter Gaza, even if they were reasonably suspected of containing hostages.
[image]This market will resolve Yes if the investigation mentioned above confirms that the IDF killed Israelis under these orders, in the course of the intial October 7th attack, via strikes on targets reasonably suspected of including hostages. Only one confirmed death is required, but crucially, it does have to be in the general timeframe of the initial attack and withdrawal, and the strike must have been intentional under the Hannibal Doctrine; to kill an Israeli rather than allow them to be taken captive.
The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israel-idf-hannibal-protocol-hamas-attack-haaretz
Haaretz: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2024-07-07/ty-article-magazine/.premium/idf-ordered-hannibal-directive-on-october-7-to-prevent-hamas-taking-soldiers-captive/00000190-89a2-d776-a3b1-fdbe45520000
|
2024-07-08T20:38:34
|
2025-02-08T07:55:16
|
2025-02-08T07:55:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ri4iwej3s9
|
Will Biden utter “Don’t change horses midstream” by end of July?
|
Resolves yes if President Joe Biden says some variantion of “Don’t change horses midstream” by July 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. The market will resolve no sooner than 12 p.m. the following day. Anything before July 8, 2024 and after July 31, 2024, will not count. All times are Eastern US time zone.
The source will need to be a video clip available online OR a quote from an American 'major outlet' referenced here. Their official websites or official social media channels will count.
Misspeaking, malapropisms, and misusing the phrase will count.
The market creator will use best judgement to determine intent if a statement is unclear or partial, or if their is a question about authenticity. Statements such as 'don't change horses' or 'don't change candidates midstream' will count.
The market creator will not trade in this market.
|
2024-07-08T20:24:38
|
2024-07-31T20:59:00
|
2024-08-01T16:41:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-switxpsm51
|
Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 60%? (i.e. "Fresh")
|
"Trap" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 60% or higher, one week after release (August 9th).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).
For example, here are the equivalent RT scores for some recent M. Night Shyamalan films:
"Knock at the Cabin": 67%
"Old": 50%
"Glass": 37%
The "Fresh" designation in the title is just used for illustrative purposes, it won't resolve the market (AFAIK, movies >=60% are "Fresh", but there may be other restrictions).
Currently, the close date is set for resolution. If there's sufficient interest & a clear review embargo date is set, I might upgrade this to "Plus" and set the close date to be the review embargo—so perhaps don't bet if you're concerned that the close date might shift up.
|
2024-07-08T13:31:34
|
2024-08-09T08:23:18
|
2024-08-09T08:23:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5wh4git77
|
Will Joe Biden have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes, before the end of July 2024?
|
The most recent qualifying interview was Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes.
If Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at least 45 minutes, this market resolves YES. If no qualifying interview is released before market close at the end of July, this market resolves NO.
This market does not include press conferences, speeches, rallies, fundraisers, town halls, etc. It can include appearances on a podcast or late night show, or an interview edited into a show like 60 minutes. However, there must be at least 45 minutes of new footage of Biden being interviewed in-person for such appearances to count. A 50 minute video might only feature 20 minutes of video of Biden being interviewed, and so would not count.
For context, Biden's interview with Stephanopoulos in July, his appearance on Jimmy Fallon in February, and his past appearances on 60 minutes have each had less than 30 minutes of video footage of Biden being interviewed.
You can find a list of Biden's interviews and their transcripts here.
|
2024-07-08T12:24:44
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T07:03:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o9coc8p4sh
|
Formula 1 2024 - Will Sergio Perez be dropped or replaced mid-season? (Includes being replaced for any reason)
|
Things have been going rather badly for Red Bull’s second driver.
He’s regularly more than half a second off Max Verstappen’s pace in qualifying and is sometimes being lapped in the races. While his teammate is leading the championship by a huge margin, Perez is languishing in sixth with less than half of Verstappen’s points tally.
Autosport have reported that the performance clause in his contract can kick in if he is over 100 points off Verstappen at key points in the season. He’s already further off than that and it seems impossible to think that he might outscore Verstappen and close the gap!
https://www.autosport.com/f1/news/red-bull-says-perez-form-unsustainable-with-f1-contract-clause-set-to-kick-in/10632975/
Will Red Bull replace Perez during the 2024 season?
This will resolve to YES if Red Bull put another driver in the second Red Bull for any qualifying or race session this year (including sprint races) for any reason.
|
2024-07-08T06:48:06
|
2024-12-09T15:59:00
|
2024-12-17T09:34:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ifimgefqx5
|
Will TikTok be banned in the United States by the end of 2025?
|
Resolution Yes Criteria:
Government Announcement:
An official announcement from the United States government, such as the White House, Congress, or a relevant federal agency (e.g., Department of Commerce), explicitly states that TikTok is banned in the United States.
Legislative Action:
The passing of a federal law or regulation that explicitly bans TikTok from operating within the United States.
Platform Accessibility:
TikTok is no longer accessible within the United States through official app stores (Apple App Store, Google Play Store) and internet service providers, as verified by major news outlets or official statements.
Resolution No Criteria:
Continued Operation:
TikTok continues to operate and is accessible within the United States without any official bans or prohibitions from the government.
No Official Ban:
There are no official announcements, laws, or regulations passed by the United States government explicitly banning TikTok from operating within the country.
Government Statements:
Official statements from relevant government agencies or representatives confirm that TikTok is not banned in the United States.
Sources for Verification:
Official Government Websites and Announcements:
Websites and official announcements from the White House, Congress, Department of Commerce, and other relevant federal agencies.
Legislative Records:
Records of federal laws and regulations, available through the official websites of the United States Congress and other government legislative tracking services.
Reputable News Outlets:
Reports from well-established and credible news organizations covering the status and accessibility of TikTok within the United States.
Tech and App Store Verification:
Availability status on the Apple App Store and Google Play Store, and reports from major tech news outlets.
|
2024-07-07T22:52:54
|
2025-03-04T22:17:51
|
2025-03-04T22:17:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x7ixqgkphg
|
Will Hillary Clinton publicly call for Biden to drop out?
|
I won’t bet. Resolves YES if Hillary Clinton publicly calls for Biden to drop out while Biden is still running for President. Resolves NO otherwise.
Deadline is Election Day.
See https://manifold.markets/RobertSutherland/will-obama-publicly-call-for-biden?r=Um9iZXJ0U3V0aGVybGFuZA
|
2024-07-07T17:52:23
|
2024-07-22T13:40:54
|
2024-07-22T13:40:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-35nmh07ct4
|
Will Obama publicly call for Biden to drop out?
|
I won’t bet. Resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly calls for Biden to drop out before Biden has publicly dropped out. Resolves NO otherwise.
Deadline is Election Day.
See https://manifold.markets/RobertSutherland/will-hillary-clinton-publicly-call?r=Um9iZXJ0U3V0aGVybGFuZAhow
|
2024-07-07T17:46:09
|
2024-07-22T13:40:42
|
2024-07-22T13:40:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cwiyfvx77u
|
Will JD Vance be replaced as Republican VP nominee?
|
Will Trump have a different VP from JD Vance for any reason before the 2024 election?
After Trump VP is picked and announced (JD Vance), will they be the pick through the end of election day?
Resolves NO if Trump is no longer running.
|
2024-07-07T16:36:06
|
2024-11-04T21:02:11
|
2024-11-04T21:02:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f6dw7g3xit
|
Will the 2024 US Presidential Election results be officially contested by either major party?
|
Resolution Yes Criteria:
Official Party Statements:
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the Republican National Committee (RNC) releases an official statement disputing the results of the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Legal Challenges:
Either major party files a lawsuit or other legal action challenging the election results in any state or federal court.
Public Declarations by Candidates:
The presidential candidate of either major party publicly declares non-acceptance of the election results and calls for a formal review, recount, or legal challenge.
Congressional Actions:
Members of Congress from either party formally object to the certification of the Electoral College results, leading to a debate and vote in Congress.
Resolution No Criteria:
Absence of Official Contest:
Neither the DNC nor the RNC releases an official statement contesting the election results.
Lack of Legal Challenges:
Neither major party initiates any legal actions challenging the results in any state or federal court.
No Public Declarations by Candidates:
Neither major party's presidential candidate publicly declares non-acceptance of the election results or calls for a formal review, recount, or legal challenge.
Uncontested Certification:
The Electoral College results are certified without formal objections that lead to a debate and vote in Congress.
Sources for Verification:
Official Party Communications:
Official websites and social media accounts of the DNC and RNC.
Reputable News Outlets:
Reports from well-established and credible news organizations.
Court Records:
Legal filings and court records available through databases like PACER (Public Access to Court Electronic Records).
Congressional Records:
Official Congressional records and proceedings, including transcripts and video recordings of the Electoral College certification process.
|
2024-07-07T14:11:43
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T16:50:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nyd56zwl3b
|
Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Copa America 2024 Final
|
Winner at end of match after regular time and extra-time / penalty shoot-out if applicable.
|
2024-07-07T08:02:22
|
2024-07-14T21:09:20
|
2024-07-14T21:09:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ho5s55fznq
|
Will Uruguay beat Colombia? | Copa America 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-06T20:10:03
|
2024-07-10T18:58:10
|
2024-07-10T18:58:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9p61vgkgn9
|
Will an ISIS terrorist attack cause injury at Euro 24?
|
The FT Reports:
Germany could see a terrorist attack on the scale of the assault on a Moscow concert hall in March, German officials have warned, as the Euro 2024 football championship it is hosting neared its second week.
“Europe, and with it Germany, are in the crosshairs of jihadist organisations, in particular Isis and Isis-K,” said German interior minister Nancy Faeser in reference to the Afghan-based affiliate called Isis-Khorasan, which claimed responsibility for the March massacre at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall.
“A possible scenario is a large-scale, co-ordinated attack of the kind we recently saw in Moscow,” said Thomas Haldenwang, head of Germany’s domestic intelligence agency (BfV), adding that Isis-K was “certainly the most dangerous group”.
The warning coincides with Germany hosting the Euros, an event that officials said could provide an attractive target for jihadist terrorists.
The Isis-K propaganda organ “Voice of Khorasan” recently posted a collage showing a militant with an assault rifle in a football stadium accompanied by the words: “shoot the last goal!”
A poll by Hohenheim university found that 20 per cent of people intended to avoid public viewing events of Euro 2024 matches out of fear of terror attacks.
Haldenwang said Isis-K had succeeded in “sending its supporters to western Europe, under cover of the refugee exodus from Ukraine”.
He said the group had posted numerous propaganda videos calling on its supporters to carry out attacks on “soft targets” in Europe reminiscent of the rampages in Paris on and around the Bataclan theatre in 2015, and on the Brussels airport and metro system the following year.
“That’s the kind of thing Isis-K dreams of,” said Haldenwang.
But he stressed that “lone wolves”, such as the 25-year-old man from Afghanistan who killed a policeman and injured five others in a knife attack in the south-western city of Mannheim earlier this month, continued to be one of the biggest threats to public security.
Haldenwang said the danger of Islamist terrorism had increased since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 and the ensuing war in Gaza, with groups such as Isis-K inciting violence against Israel and Jews in the diaspora.
Faeser said the number of antisemitic crimes in Germany had “exploded” and people sporting Jewish insignia — such as members of the sports club Makkabi Deutschland — were often unable to go out in public “without being sworn at or attacked”.
Experts say Isis-K, which was established in Afghanistan in 2015, has increased in strength since the US withdrawal from Kabul in 2021 and has ramped up its international activities since then, despite a bloody counterinsurgency campaign by the ruling Taliban to stamp out the group
Isis-K was linked to bombings in Iran in January that killed nearly 100 people, an attack on a church in Turkey the same month and a foiled plot in March to attack Sweden’s parliament that authorities said may have been directed from Afghanistan.
According to the BfV’s annual report for 2023, the jihadist group was increasingly setting its sights on “attacks against ‘infidels’ in the west” in order to highlight its importance within Isis.
Last July German police arrested seven people suspected of being members of Isis-K. The BfV report said they were all from Central Asia and had entered Germany from Ukraine at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of its western neighbour.
They had, it said, planned attacks and had already identified and scouted out potential targets and made attempts to procure weapons.
Earlier this month, police and prosecutors arrested a German-Moroccan-Polish national, identified only at Soufian T, who is suspected of transferring $1,675 in cryptocurrency to an Isis-K account.
Der Spiegel reported that he had tried to get a job as a steward in one of the public viewing events of the Euro 2024 event.
|
2024-07-06T19:59:49
|
2024-07-15T23:59:00
|
2024-07-16T00:51:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o54g4n8ss6
|
Will Israeli tanks enter Lebanon before the end of the month?
|
The Sentinel team estimates that the chance that at least three Israeli tanks will have rolled into Lebanon by the end of August is 65% (range, 58% to 70%).
This market resolves Yes if 3 tanks roll into Lebanon by the end of July.
I won’t bet on this market.
|
2024-07-06T19:38:26
|
2024-08-01T23:59:00
|
2024-08-02T00:25:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eqhdgbrual
|
Will Biden OR Harris be the 2024 Democratic Nominee?
|
@/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
@/MarketManagerBot/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati
|
2024-07-06T18:45:21
|
2024-08-05T22:10:30
|
2024-08-05T22:10:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wzz8e4gi5r
|
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of Halloween?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-06T17:15:45
|
2024-09-30T21:51:26
|
2024-09-30T21:51:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5w2nutur4o
|
Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls)
|
Resolves based on the first such debate, resolves N/A if no such debate happens.
Will resolve based on polling conducted about the debate. In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 election, this market resolves based on that.
If there are several questions polled about the candidates' debate performance, this question resolves based on the closest thing to the question "Overall, who do you think won the debate?"
If 538 does not sponsor their own polling but does have a definitive post-debate article covering other polling, perhaps averaging different polls of debate viewers, this market will resolve based on that coverage.
If 538 does not do that, another source of similar polling will be used. If none is available, this resolves N/A.
Criteria will be updated as we learn about if and how the debate will happen.
|
2024-07-06T16:41:20
|
2024-09-20T13:09:36
|
2024-09-20T13:09:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tejqryziiz
|
Spain vs. France | Euro 2024 (Regular + Extra Time Only)
|
Resolves Yes = Spain wins at end of regular time / extra-time
Resolves 50%= Draw at end of regular time / extra-time
Resolves No = France wins at end of regular time / extra-time
Market does not include outcome of penalty shoot-out
|
2024-07-06T15:37:57
|
2024-07-09T13:56:12
|
2024-07-09T13:56:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7hq0iueoeq
|
Will Netherlands beat England? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-06T14:49:33
|
2024-07-10T13:57:55
|
2024-07-10T13:57:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6unavmpfjd
|
Will we learn that Joe Biden has Parkinson's disease before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves based on credible media reports. I may trade, and resolves based on a mod (joshua)'s decision if someone disputes my resolution.
Criteria may be clarified/modified during the first few days after feedback.
|
2024-07-06T13:49:30
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T23:07:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6jz62ddhlz
|
Will there be a red card in either semi-final of UEFA Euros 2024?
|
Will a red card be shown to any player or member of support team in either of the UEFA Euros 2024 semi-final games?
A red card is shown either for serious fouls/misconduct, or as the result of a player receiving two 'warning' yellow cards.
The market will resolve YES if any member of any of the teams playing the semi-finals is shown a red card and sent off the pitch.
|
2024-07-06T11:43:31
|
2024-07-10T15:59:00
|
2024-07-11T01:16:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pyxyef1z58
|
Will Democratic delegates invoke the “good conscience” clause to oust Biden?
|
https://www.aei.org/op-eds/gaming-out-a-biden-exit/
Resolves YES if the clause is invoked to formally nominate someone other than Biden for 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidate.
|
2024-07-05T22:14:30
|
2024-07-21T14:40:03
|
2024-07-21T14:40:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e33fo8tt0i
|
Will Bitcoin go below $50K in July 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-07-05T21:21:48
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T00:26:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ekpo226bdp
|
Will Argentina beat Canada? | Copa America 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-05T20:12:37
|
2024-07-09T18:54:47
|
2024-07-09T18:54:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ix6j7dhjgi
|
Will Spain beat France? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-05T16:13:30
|
2024-07-09T13:54:16
|
2024-07-09T13:54:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ni207sci8p
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 270 days of being attacked by them?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-05T12:33:16
|
2024-10-01T07:37:34
|
2024-10-01T07:37:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wylmmdwmkw
|
Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th?
|
Politico reports:
Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.
Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Democrats and at least one would call on Biden to end his campaign, according to five people familiar with the efforts.
This market resolves YES if a group of at least five named Democratic Party US House Members/US Senators work together to ask Joe Biden to consider ending his 2024 re-election campaign, or to urge him to do so, before Saturday July 20th (Pacific Time).
This could be by signing a letter like what is reported above, but it could also be in another form such as a group speaking with Biden in person and collectively asking him to drop out.
This market requires that all five individuals be part of the same group message. Five people separately telling reporters they think Biden should drop out is not sufficient for a YES resolution.
Reports of any number of unnamed democrats writing to Biden and asking him to step aside will not satisfy this market's criteria unless at least 5 qualifying names are later made public before this market's end date. In any ambiguous cases where such names are reported but not confirmed beyond a reasonable doubt, this market will err towards resolving NO.
If these criteria are not met before July 20th, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-07-05T11:47:55
|
2024-07-19T23:59:00
|
2024-07-23T15:24:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tt75ez13z5
|
Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.
Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different from President under the Constitution)
|
2024-07-05T09:35:49
|
2024-07-31T21:59:00
|
2024-08-01T19:37:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i0uhf8ay1a
|
Will bitcoin end August 31, 2024 over $69000?
|
End of month California time
|
2024-07-05T07:37:20
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T07:25:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jh1rqho043
|
Will bitcoin end August 31, 2024 over $48000?
|
End of month California time
|
2024-07-05T07:33:24
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T07:26:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-42tjls3r8h
|
Will Biden drop out before Trump reveals his VP?
|
Resolves YES if Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race before Trump reveals his VP pick.
|
2024-07-05T00:48:56
|
2024-07-15T12:41:27
|
2024-07-15T12:41:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-77bwfbf1kq
|
Will TSLA reach >$ 350 before 8pm EST on December 31st?
|
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$350 ($350.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on the last trading day of the year at
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
|
2024-07-04T20:06:50
|
2024-11-11T07:56:58
|
2024-11-11T07:56:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i4z1czklvn
|
Will a Governor be on the Democratic Presidential ticket for 2024?
|
Current or former, President or Veep, as of the official nomination of the ticket by the DNC.
|
2024-07-04T20:00:33
|
2024-08-07T07:34:58
|
2024-08-07T07:34:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v5unqilzf4
|
Will Bitcoin go below $52K in July 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-07-04T18:01:58
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T00:26:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oelq9leptu
|
Will Kamala Harris say "unburdened" on camera between July 4th and July 31st? Ironically or not.
|
Kamala's "what can be, unburdened by what has been" has become a meme.
https://www.tiktok.com/@rohan.pinto/video/7386296632200940806
Will she go back to the well, or drop it ironically?
The market will resolve YES if there is video proof of a new case of "unburdened" from VP Harris -- from the month of July, 2024.
|
2024-07-04T11:10:34
|
2024-07-31T20:27:51
|
2024-07-31T20:27:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8bg2gmki91
|
Will Russian forces control majority of Chasiv Yar by November 5th, according to pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateMAP?
|
As of July 4th, there are reports about Ukrainian forces withdrawing from parts of Chasiv Yar in the face of Russian offensive.
https://deepnewz.com/ukraine/ukrainian-forces-withdraw-chasiv-yar-eastern-donetsk
[image]According to the pro-Ukrainian but fair-minded mappers at DeepStateMAP, the boundary between Russian and Ukrainian control is just east of the city.
https://deepstatemap.live/en"#13/48.5756985/37.8414631
[image]The market will resolve YES if by November 5th (US elections) the Russian forces are shown to control more than half of the city.
Chasiv Yar is on an important hilltop, in an otherwise flat region. Hence controlling the hill and the center of the city is what's at stake.
Unlike other markets, if the DeepStateMAP shows that Russian forces are controlling this area for a substantial period of time, we may resolve the market early. We will not wait until November 5th in that case to see if Ukrainian forces take it back.
In the vast majority of cases the resolution would be clear. We say "majority of the city" according to the line above, to avoid confusion around remaining fighting in the outskirts, as happened in Bakhmut, Avdeevka, etc.
We will use the "solid red" as shown above in the DeepStateMAP. Which is fair minded but somewhat conservative when applying the label to territory that changes control between Russian and Ukrainian forces.
|
2024-07-04T10:17:20
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T08:30:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-32wfq6hr74
|
If Israel invades Lebanon, will Iran get involved with an aerial attack?
|
It seems likely that Israel might invade southern Lebanon within the next few months. Recently, Iran threatened with "an obliterating war" if such an invasion should occur. This raises the question "How serious is their threat?"
The question resolves strictly following two existing markets:
[markets]The question resolves to N/A if the first market resolves to NO or either market resolves to N/A. It will resolve to YES, even if the Iranian attack happens before the invasion.
|
2024-07-04T10:15:02
|
2024-10-01T15:31:41
|
2024-10-01T15:31:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2nbhhhvh0z
|
Will Biden drop out of the election during the ABC interview ?
|
President Joe Biden will sit down with ABC News for a Friday night primetime special in his first television interview since last week's presidential debate.
The president's poor performance in the debate has garnered calls for him to drop out of the race by politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Biden will speak to "Good Morning America" and "This Week" anchor George Stephanopoulos for the interview.
A first look will air on the Friday, July 5, edition of "World News Tonight with David Muir" and the interview will air in its entirety as a primetime special Friday, July 5 at 8/7c on ABC News.
|
2024-07-04T09:50:45
|
2024-07-06T02:59:00
|
2024-07-06T17:07:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-22hfpmu6zb
|
Will a sitting Democratic state governor call for Joe Biden to step down by end of July? (23 governors)
|
As of July 4th, three sitting Congressmen have called on Biden to step down.
But so far no Democrat Senators (50 of those) or state Governors (23 of those).
https://deepnewz.com/arizona/second-house-democrat-rep-grijalva-urges-biden-to-exit-presidential-race
[image]The market will resolve YES if any of those 23 governors publicly call on Biden to step down, by the end of July [as judged by Eastern Time].
OR the market will resolve YES if Biden steps down
Otherwise the market will resolve NO.
Former governors, or governors of non-state US territories do not count.
|
2024-07-04T09:34:06
|
2024-07-21T19:02:27
|
2024-07-21T19:02:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5yd7o6zsbr
|
Will a sitting Democratic Senator call for Joe Biden to step down by July 14th?
|
Now that several sitting Congressmen have called on Biden to step down, will there be a sitting Senator to do so?
https://deepnewz.com/arizona/second-house-democrat-rep-grijalva-urges-biden-to-exit-presidential-race
[image]
The market will resolve YES if there is a widely sourced media report (or official Twitter account) making such a statement.
OR the market will resolve YES if Biden drops out.
The market will resolve NO if no such statement is widely reported by noon Eastern Time on 07/14/2024
|
2024-07-04T09:27:44
|
2024-07-10T17:06:43
|
2024-07-10T17:06:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rkqcy6rke
|
Will Bitcoin go below $55K in July 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-07-04T02:35:48
|
2024-07-05T21:20:19
|
2024-07-05T21:20:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mmyf468ggx
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Biden’s re-election campaign?
|
Resolves yes if jimmy is still alive on Nov 6. Otherwise resolves Yes if jimmy is still alive when Biden drops out. Otherwise resolves no.
|
2024-07-03T22:34:50
|
2024-07-22T16:09:04
|
2024-07-22T16:09:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b4tc5cjhyb
|
Will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race before 10:10 AM on 10/10?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-03T22:10:47
|
2024-07-21T14:49:07
|
2024-07-21T14:49:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zblop3b3ve
|
Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high by end of June 2025? ($407)
|
Using $407 as ATH
Must be verified by multiple exchanges
|
2024-07-03T21:57:55
|
2024-12-10T08:12:21
|
2024-12-10T08:12:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k30gtidiye
|
Harris to pass Trump?
|
Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point before election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/
|
2024-07-03T21:46:40
|
2024-08-07T08:55:49
|
2024-08-07T08:55:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nav2ajpah4
|
Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high this year?
|
Using $407 as ATH
Must be verified by multiple exchanges
|
2024-07-03T21:27:18
|
2024-12-10T08:18:35
|
2024-12-10T08:18:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jkbujbe3jj
|
Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee be a Woman?
|
Will resolve “yes” if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election.
Will resolve “no” if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election.
|
2024-07-03T14:21:49
|
2024-08-06T06:22:40
|
2024-08-06T06:22:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dt9gutv4t3
|
Will There Be an Upset in the 2024 Euro Quarterfinals?
|
Predict whether there will be an upset in any of the four quarterfinal matches of the 2024 Euro Championship. An upset is defined as a lower-seeded or less-favored team proceeding to the semi-finals at the expense of a higher-seeded or more-favored opponent.
Matchups + current odds per oddschecker.com
[image]If any of Germany, Portugal, Switzerland or Turkey proceed to the semi-finals, this market will resolve YES, and resolve NO otherwise
|
2024-07-03T12:56:02
|
2024-07-07T00:33:42
|
2024-07-07T00:33:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fkhsl9uyi9
|
Will Uruguay beat Brazil? | Copa America 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-03T11:38:56
|
2024-07-06T20:08:21
|
2024-07-06T20:08:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hp7mkb48d9
|
Will Venezuela beat Canada? | Copa America 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-03T11:36:58
|
2024-07-05T20:10:05
|
2024-07-05T20:10:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2gxh1aucvt
|
Will Argentina beat Ecuador? | Copa America 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-03T11:36:02
|
2024-07-04T20:14:56
|
2024-07-04T20:14:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jyvbcs9o14
|
Will Starship launch at least 2 Starlink satellites to orbit in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-03T10:24:29
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-08T14:59:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fwio4yl6ps
|
Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of August?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-03T09:39:53
|
2024-08-30T20:59:00
|
2024-08-30T21:03:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-934ov6uj9o
|
Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July?
|
Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announcement of his intention to do so is sufficient to resolve this market.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO on August 1st.
|
2024-07-03T09:32:13
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T07:03:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bcuoqt9anm
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive up until Oct 2 2025, 12:01 am EST, one day after his 101st birthday?
|
This market will resolve Yes on Oct 2nd 2025, 12:01 am EST, if Jimmy Carter is still alive. If he dies before this date and time, it will resolve No.
|
2024-07-03T09:13:22
|
2024-12-29T13:18:41
|
2024-12-29T13:19:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d432iklgys
|
Will Joe Biden endorse Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination before the end of July?
|
Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead of himself before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time. Otherwise resolves NO on August 1st.
|
2024-07-03T09:02:05
|
2024-07-21T15:13:53
|
2024-07-21T15:13:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8g41x10te
|
Will there be a third presidential debate in the 2024 US election?
|
This question resolves YES if there are at least three live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 including at least one or the other
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be a third debate?
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-07-03T08:44:19
|
2024-11-05T22:48:46
|
2024-11-05T22:48:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h8pta1u80f
|
Will there be a second presidential debate in the 2024 US election?
|
This question resolves YES if there are at least two live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 including at least one or the other
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be a second debate?
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-07-03T08:43:25
|
2024-09-11T00:03:12
|
2024-09-11T00:03:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-drubkd1wop
|
Will GME reach $50 before the end of July 2024?
|
GameStop GME stock closed at $23.98 on July 2nd 2024
|
2024-07-02T22:31:34
|
2024-07-31T14:03:41
|
2024-07-31T14:03:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7n58fdpeax
|
Will a second sitting Democrat Congressman or Senator publicly urge Biden to drop out before July 7th?
|
On Tuesday July 2nd, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call on President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.
https://deepnewz.com/texas/rep-lloyd-doggett-becomes-first-democratic-lawmaker-to-urge-biden-to-withdraw
[image]Will another sitting Democratic Congressman or Senator call for Biden to drop out or step down?
The market will resolve YES if
there is a well-sourced media report with direct quote (or the office sends a tweet) announcing a call for Biden to step down or resign from the 2024 presidential campaign
OR if Biden announces he is stepping down, this will also resolve YES
otherwise if nothing happens, the market will resolve NO
The market will resolve after Sunday July 6th, East Coast time. Only announcements made before Monday July 7th will count.
|
2024-07-02T20:37:55
|
2024-07-03T19:07:53
|
2024-07-03T19:07:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1edm179r5x
|
Will Harris debate Trump before the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-02T15:08:11
|
2024-09-10T18:03:29
|
2024-09-10T18:03:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-32oy3ido3q
|
Will Netherlands beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-02T13:54:23
|
2024-07-06T13:55:15
|
2024-07-06T13:55:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pamh63r4zj
|
Will Biden's interview with George Stephanopoulos increase his odds of winning?
|
Resolves to YES if Biden's odds of winning the presidency on Polymarket are higher immediately after the extended interview first airing than immediately before the airing of the extended interview began. Resolves to NO otherwise.
"President Joe Biden will give an interview to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos later this week, his first since the president’s much-criticized performance during last week’s debate.
Portions of the interview will air on ABC’s “World News Tonight” on Friday, with the extended interview first airing on the network’s “This Week” Sunday morning program, the network said Tuesday."
https://apnews.com/article/biden-abc-televisiion-debate-1d33bf51fe706e2fd1adea7a83bbf617
|
2024-07-02T13:23:43
|
2024-07-07T23:52:13
|
2024-07-07T23:52:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kjdrsf9f9j
|
Will there be another Democratic party presidential debate?
|
Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.) prior to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-07-02T12:28:56
|
2024-08-11T21:01:42
|
2024-08-11T21:01:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dkknh6z9yh
|
[Metaculus] Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?
|
Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25416/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
If Joe Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, this question resolves as Yes. If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as No.
The President of the United States's clemency actions consist of either pardons of people or commutations of their sentences. This question therefore resolves based on these two databases from the Department of Justice:
Pardons Granted
Commutations Granted
If those resources are unavailable but the pardon or commutation unambiguously happened (for example in the case of a blanket pardon which covers Hunter Biden in its scope, discussed in the Fine Print), then this question may resolve based on other credible sources.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-07-02T11:28:28
|
2024-12-09T18:52:17
|
2024-12-09T18:52:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mfi71e70er
|
[Metaculus] Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democra...nomination for President?
|
Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25755/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.
To qualify for a Yes resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.
If such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-07-02T03:27:38
|
2024-07-15T03:11:26
|
2024-07-15T03:11:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ltx4xjufjs
|
Congress impeaches Supreme Court justices by EOY?
|
Resolves YES if 2 or more Supreme Court justices are impeached by Congress by EOY
https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-justices-impeachment-aoc-1919728
|
2024-07-01T22:33:02
|
2024-12-31T02:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:11:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6skv683fgj
|
Biden formally nominated in July?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is formally nominated by the Democratic National Committee as the Democratic presidential candidate by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
[image]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/democrats-weigh-early-biden-nomination-to-squash-talk-of-a-swap
|
2024-07-01T21:21:29
|
2024-07-21T14:40:58
|
2024-07-21T14:40:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zai1ck9fg6
|
Will Portugal beat France? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-07-01T16:33:43
|
2024-07-05T15:50:54
|
2024-07-05T15:50:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tj13l0rpoj
|
Will Joe Biden tank his "statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling" on July 1st?
|
Resolves YES if either
At least one of New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, or New Yorker reports by end of July 3rd that this public appearance reaffirmed concerns about Biden's age.
Such reporting only counts if I feel the article's author agrees with the 'reaffirmed concerns' opinion
This disqualifies articles where the writer is just presenting a wide range of quotes or opinions without taking a stance.
An article is however qualified to resolve YES if its primary focus is quotes of 'public concern', even if the author doesn't explicitly state agreement.
or https://electionbettingodds.com/DEMPrimary2024.html shows Biden dropping back down below 60% chance of nomination in the 2 hours after the start of the appearance
I will not trade in this market since resolution will be somewhat subjective with the interpretation of news articles.
[link preview]
|
2024-07-01T15:28:53
|
2024-07-03T16:36:03
|
2024-07-03T16:36:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yh9gl5qtom
|
Will a Supreme Court justice be impeached this year?
|
AOC vows to file articles of impeachment:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4750034-ocasio-cortez-impeachment-articles-supreme-court-justices-trump-immunity/
The only Justice to be impeached was Associate Justice Samuel Chase in 1805. The House of Representatives passed Articles of Impeachment against him; however, he was acquitted by the Senate.
|
2024-07-01T12:59:29
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:01:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x9fxl6kobf
|
Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-01T11:33:28
|
2024-07-08T05:15:54
|
2024-07-08T05:15:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zzy3958flx
|
Will Biden fire a senior member of his campaign staff this week?
|
Resolves according to credible media reports.
Motivated by this CNN article: "Biden’s family encourages him to stay in the race as they discuss whether top advisers should be fired" https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/30/politics/biden-family-camp-david-debate/index.html
|
2024-07-01T09:48:16
|
2024-07-08T21:32:32
|
2024-07-08T21:32:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nvd17j1hkh
|
Will Biden give a nationally-televised interview or town hall in July?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-07-01T09:46:06
|
2024-07-06T22:36:02
|
2024-07-06T22:36:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2b26rn6qg1
|
Will Bitcoin hit 66,000 in July 2024
|
Market resolves yes if Bitcoin hits 66,000 in the month of July 2024
Source is coindesk.com
|
2024-07-01T08:14:57
|
2024-07-17T06:09:16
|
2024-07-17T06:09:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e1qq17aetg
|
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal during Euro 2024?
|
He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?
Will resolve YES if he scores according to https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/ *
Will resolve NO if he doesn't.
*Penalties scored during penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards goals scored by individual players in their goal records. Own goals also do not count.
[link preview]
|
2024-07-01T06:35:53
|
2024-07-05T14:43:26
|
2024-07-05T14:43:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zb5ojla7qg
|
Will Bitcoin hit $72K in July 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-07-01T01:36:46
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T00:27:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o28q5wwg69
|
Will Bitcoin go below $58K in July 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-07-01T01:34:40
|
2024-07-04T02:30:24
|
2024-07-04T02:30:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sw3gqfsspl
|
Will either Biden or Harris win the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the 2024 US presidential election by the Associated Press, or NO if the election is called by the AP for anyone else.
This requires that either Biden or Harris be the presidential nominee on the winning ticket. For example, a ticket with Newsom for President and Harris for Vice President would not qualify for a YES resolution.
|
2024-06-30T21:54:37
|
2024-11-06T15:51:45
|
2024-11-06T15:51:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7kbdk5mlml
|
Will anyone except Biden, Harris, or Trump be a major party nominee?
|
This market resolves YES if:
Anyone except Donald Trump is officially selected as the Republican Party presidential nominee by the end of the Republican National Convention, currently scheduled to occur July 15th - July 18th.
Anyone except Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is officially selected as the Democratic Party presidential nominee by the end of the Democratic National Convention, currently scheduled to occur August 19th - August 22nd
Otherwise, this market resolves NO at the end of the second convention.
Any replacement of a nominee after a convention and before election day would not change the resolution of the market.
|
2024-06-30T21:43:35
|
2024-08-22T22:37:03
|
2024-08-22T22:37:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rk2eveooes
|
Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21?
|
Clone of (and resolves identically to) https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151
The Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony module's limited fuel.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Boeing Starliner spacecraft departs the International Space Station (ISS) with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore by 11:59 PM ET on July 21, 2024.
The Starliner will be considered to have departed if it has undocked from the ISS and begun its return journey to Earth.
The resolution source will be official announcements from NASA and/or Boeing, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2024-06-30T20:40:11
|
2024-07-21T04:59:00
|
2024-07-21T14:42:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mk641zra23
|
Will Spain beat Germany? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-30T13:53:49
|
2024-07-05T11:41:29
|
2024-07-05T11:41:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oztwttoc8v
|
Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 race for the American presidency by midnight on Friday, July 5th
|
PLEASE READ ALL FOLLOWING CAVEATS BEFORE BETTING ON THIS MARKET. BY BETTING ON THIS MARKET, YOU AGREE TO THE TERMS "AS-IS" AND ASSENT TO ANY EVENT OUTCOMES NOT ADDRESSED BY THESE TERMS AS BEING DECIDED ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL DISCRETION.
Candidacy must have been at least informally concluded by 11:59PM on Friday, July 5th (so, he could drop out any time on that day).
Overly-literal interpretations of "drop out" are discouraged. "I'm no longer going to run for the presidency this fall" / "I am releasing my delegates for the convention" / etc. are all valid.
Additionally, any reporting within ~one week of closing date that demonstrates Joe Biden to have made this decision in any capacity by EOD Friday is valid and resolves this question to "yes." (For example, a quote from his wife Dr. Jill Biden being discussed in the news the following week: "Well, Joe told me on Friday night that he just didn't think he had it in him after all, and it was from that conversation that we made this decision." )
Note how this allows the event to have "occurred" without having been announced or formalized.
Formal occurrence in the form of a delegate release or some sort of public press announcement must have occurred by 11:59 PM on Friday, July 12th.
Note when this question closes and when the question criteria must have been satisfied in order for this to resolve to "yes." Furthermore, the question may not resolve until next Sunday, July 14th.
July 14th is probably both the earliest and latest date this question will resolve to "no."
The question may resolve to "yes" even before the closing date or even before July 5th, but not before I am satisfied by how factually verifiable all the reporting on the event is. ("Some guy on Twitter said X" does not count.)
Please DM me if you come across credible news reporting about this happening so I can resolve ASAP, I'll definitely check at least once per day, but more often than that is not guaranteed.
If you have any questions or need clarifications about definitions/process with this market, feel free to ask them in the comments. I may respond if your words are polite, specific, and relevant enough to merit additional time & effort on my part.
Thank you for your interest in this market, and happy betting.
|
2024-06-30T13:14:41
|
2024-07-07T22:59:00
|
2024-07-13T23:09:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qvcf7iyu1v
|
Will Le Pen's National Rally Alliance get 275+ seats in French legislative election?
|
If National Rally Alliance gets 275+ seats, it resolves YES. Otherwise NO.
|
2024-06-30T12:36:39
|
2024-07-07T14:59:00
|
2024-07-08T12:08:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nfw7sseazk
|
Will England beat Switzerland? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-30T11:55:01
|
2024-07-06T11:41:15
|
2024-07-06T11:41:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3d4c5e1q1v
|
If Biden drops out, will he endorse Kamala Harris the same day?
|
Resolves YES if Biden endorses Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination on the same day that he officially drops out of the race.
Resolves NO if Biden drops out but does not endorse Harris on the same day.
Resolves NA if Biden never drops out.
Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden does not drop out since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.
|
2024-06-30T11:46:13
|
2024-07-21T15:58:34
|
2024-07-21T15:58:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yd7qzezyc5
|
Will Biden make any gaffes in the next week according to the NY Times?
|
Resolves YES if there is a New York Times article describing Biden making a "gaffe" between June 30th at 11:40 AM PT and July 7th at 11:40 AM PT.
If the NY times specifically uses the word "gaffe" in relation to something Biden said during this time period, I will resolve YES. If the NY times does not use the word "gaffe" but reports on Biden misspeaking in an embarrassing way then I will resolve YES. Otherwise, I will resolve NO.
|
2024-06-30T11:44:10
|
2024-07-08T15:42:49
|
2024-07-08T15:42:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ec549nqqmg
|
Will Biden drop out after receiving the nomination?
|
Resolves YES if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race after officially receiving the nomination.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to YES. (Definition from Polymarket)
Resolves NO if he does not receive the nomination, or stays in the race until election day.
|
2024-06-30T08:46:14
|
2024-07-21T14:27:15
|
2024-07-21T14:27:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8nuq4b0c5b
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive to see another president beside Joe Biden?
|
This question will resolve as YES if Joe Biden is no longer officially the president of the United States and Jimmy Carter is still alive.
This question will resolve as NO if Jimmy Carter dies while Joe Biden is still officially the president of the United States.
If the timing of both events is too close to determine the exact order, this market will resolve 50%/50%.
|
2024-06-30T07:03:05
|
2024-12-30T05:44:59
|
2024-12-30T05:44:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dei4ssmcwz
|
Will Biden finish his term?
|
Clone of https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president?tid=1719729460020
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will not resolve "Yes" until the presidency is successfully transferred from Biden to another person at the completion of his term on January 20, 2025, or until Biden is sworn into the presidency again on that date.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolves identically to the Polymarket market.
|
2024-06-29T23:42:00
|
2025-01-20T02:59:00
|
2025-01-20T11:58:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e2vmrasfyn
|
Will Interactive Broker's prediction market platform have $100mm in volume in 2024?
|
Background: Interactive Brokers is launching ForecastEx in July 2024.
|
2024-06-29T21:28:53
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:40:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w8hgf39zmf
|
Will Jimmy Carter win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JimmyCarter
|
2024-06-29T17:39:29
|
2024-11-06T16:47:17
|
2024-11-06T16:47:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7cu6jujd72
|
Will any of these 10 pundits apologize by end of August for calling for Biden to drop out?
|
Many political commentators and pundits (who previously supported Biden) have called for Biden to drop out immediately following the debate. However, Democratic politicians have stuck by Biden publicly so far, creating the impression that maybe the preference cascade will stop at pundits. Will it reverse enough that someone apologizes?
The pundits (I based the list entirely on this Politico article):
Tom Nichols
Ron Brownstein
Franklin Foer
Nicholas Kristof
Paul Krugman
Thomas Friedman
Maureen Dowd
David Axelrod
David Plouffe
David Ignatius
An apology must happen before Election Day to count. I will use best judgement to determine what counts as apologizing. Saying "I regret calling for Biden to drop out" would count; I won't require that they literally say they were sorry.
I will be going based off what is linked in the comments of this market. If an apology is not linked there, I may miss it!
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2024-06-29T16:30:31
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T00:04:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ia3wsfijct
|
Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M)
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo
Franchise (worldwide) grosses:
Despicable Me: $543,239,815
Minions: The Rise of Gru: $940,203,765
Despicable Me 2: $970,766,005
Despicable Me 3: $1,034,799,409
Minions: $1,159,398,397
"Minions: The Rise of Gru" is currently the lowest grossing of the franchise since the 2015 original (which only grossed $543M). This market resolves YES if "Despicable me 4" (2024) grosses less than $940,203,765 within 3 months of release (September 7th).
I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined ("WORLDWIDE", on the main page).
If the result seems mathematically certain, I reserve the right to resolve the market early. To formalize this, I'll consider resolving YES if 5x the movie's latest weekly gross for the remaining duration isn't sufficient to cross the threshold.
|
2024-06-29T15:24:20
|
2024-09-07T23:59:00
|
2024-09-08T16:58:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ra03enxo4p
|
Will Sam Darnold start 10 or more games at QB in 2024?
|
Starts for any team count!
|
2024-06-28T19:32:56
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-22T09:52:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u7pakil1lt
|
If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week?
|
If Biden does not drop out, this resolves N/A.
Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104) one week after Biden drops out is lower than it was before he drops out. Resolves NO otherwise.
I will define "before he drops out" as the last moment that this market (https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719604323939) is below 94%. I will define one week after he drops out as exactly 7 days after the moment "before he drops out". I will wait until he officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn or exits the race since only then can I identify the last moment that the market was below 94%.
Basically, the goal of this market is to see whether the market thinks Democrats would do better if Biden was not the nominee. I duplicated a similar market about winning the election. I am focusing on an intermediate outcome that should be easier to predict. As the author of the duplicated market notes, this is inspired by one of Robin Hanson's ideas for conditional prediction markets where there would be a conditional market on a company's stock price if they fired their CEO.
Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an option. I will appeal to the mods to resolve NA if Biden does not drop out since people have already placed bets on this market. Otherwise, I will resolve to current prices (i.e. Keynesian beauty contest resolution) once Biden can no longer drop out.
|
2024-06-28T12:58:41
|
2024-07-29T06:05:31
|
2024-07-29T06:05:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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