id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-0c6hrrpbeq | If the Democrats switch candidates, will they win the election? | YES if the Dems win with a candidate other than Biden
NA if they do not switch candidates
NO if the Dems lose with a candidate other than Biden | 2024-07-09T07:39:54 | 2024-11-07T13:07:49 | 2024-11-07T13:07:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cfhr6in9lw | Will the Euro 2024 finale be decided by penalty shoot-out? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-09T01:32:51 | 2024-07-14T13:53:37 | 2024-07-14T13:53:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ds18hsc542 | Will Taylor Swift cameo in Deadpool and Wolverine? | Resolves YES if she appears in the movie in any role, even if it is just her voice used for a character. Will still resolve YES if she is not credited on IMDB, if it is still confirmed by independent sources.
[image]https://people.com/will-taylor-swift-play-dazzler-in-deadpool-and-wolverine-8651310 | 2024-07-08T23:08:30 | 2024-07-24T07:33:43 | 2024-07-24T07:33:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4jdt0sxw40 | Will Biden drop out before July 27th? | If Biden drops out or is otherwise unable to continue his campaign before July 27th 12:00 AM Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, it will resolve to no. | 2024-07-08T20:39:31 | 2024-07-22T09:48:25 | 2024-07-22T09:48:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qtudbliwjj | Did the IDF intentionally kill Israelis on October 7th as part of the Hannibal Directive? | Previously, rumors that the Israeli military had intentionally attacked vehicles suspected of carrying hostages during the 10/7 attacks had been dismissed by mainstream media. However, recent investigations have yielded evidence and admissions that this protocol is really in practice, and was employed on the day in que... | 2024-07-08T20:38:34 | 2025-02-08T07:55:16 | 2025-02-08T07:55:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ri4iwej3s9 | Will Biden utter “Don’t change horses midstream” by end of July? | Resolves yes if President Joe Biden says some variantion of “Don’t change horses midstream” by July 31, 2024, 11:59 p.m. The market will resolve no sooner than 12 p.m. the following day. Anything before July 8, 2024 and after July 31, 2024, will not count. All times are Eastern US time zone.
The source will need to b... | 2024-07-08T20:24:38 | 2024-07-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-01T16:41:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-switxpsm51 | Will M. Night Shyamalan's "Trap" (2024) have a Rotten Tomatoes critics score of at least 60%? (i.e. "Fresh") | "Trap" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
This resolves YES if the Tomatometer score is 60% or higher, one week after release (August 9th).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal).
For example, here are the equivalent RT scores for some recent M. N... | 2024-07-08T13:31:34 | 2024-08-09T08:23:18 | 2024-08-09T08:23:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5wh4git77 | Will Joe Biden have an in-person interview/conversation on camera for 45+ minutes, before the end of July 2024? | The most recent qualifying interview was Biden's appearance on The Howard Stern Show in April, when Biden answered questions for ~70 minutes.
If Biden appears in another such in-person interview for at least 45 minutes, this market resolves YES. If no qualifying interview is released before market close at the end of... | 2024-07-08T12:24:44 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T07:03:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o9coc8p4sh | Formula 1 2024 - Will Sergio Perez be dropped or replaced mid-season? (Includes being replaced for any reason) | Things have been going rather badly for Red Bull’s second driver.
He’s regularly more than half a second off Max Verstappen’s pace in qualifying and is sometimes being lapped in the races. While his teammate is leading the championship by a huge margin, Perez is languishing in sixth with less than half of Verstappen’s... | 2024-07-08T06:48:06 | 2024-12-09T15:59:00 | 2024-12-17T09:34:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ifimgefqx5 | Will TikTok be banned in the United States by the end of 2025? | Resolution Yes Criteria:
Government Announcement:
An official announcement from the United States government, such as the White House, Congress, or a relevant federal agency (e.g., Department of Commerce), explicitly states that TikTok is banned in the United States.
Legislative Action:
The passing of a federal law... | 2024-07-07T22:52:54 | 2025-03-04T22:17:51 | 2025-03-04T22:17:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-x7ixqgkphg | Will Hillary Clinton publicly call for Biden to drop out? | I won’t bet. Resolves YES if Hillary Clinton publicly calls for Biden to drop out while Biden is still running for President. Resolves NO otherwise.
Deadline is Election Day.
See https://manifold.markets/RobertSutherland/will-obama-publicly-call-for-biden?r=Um9iZXJ0U3V0aGVybGFuZA | 2024-07-07T17:52:23 | 2024-07-22T13:40:54 | 2024-07-22T13:40:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-35nmh07ct4 | Will Obama publicly call for Biden to drop out? | I won’t bet. Resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly calls for Biden to drop out before Biden has publicly dropped out. Resolves NO otherwise.
Deadline is Election Day.
See https://manifold.markets/RobertSutherland/will-hillary-clinton-publicly-call?r=Um9iZXJ0U3V0aGVybGFuZAhow | 2024-07-07T17:46:09 | 2024-07-22T13:40:42 | 2024-07-22T13:40:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cwiyfvx77u | Will JD Vance be replaced as Republican VP nominee? | Will Trump have a different VP from JD Vance for any reason before the 2024 election?
After Trump VP is picked and announced (JD Vance), will they be the pick through the end of election day?
Resolves NO if Trump is no longer running. | 2024-07-07T16:36:06 | 2024-11-04T21:02:11 | 2024-11-04T21:02:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f6dw7g3xit | Will the 2024 US Presidential Election results be officially contested by either major party? | Resolution Yes Criteria:
Official Party Statements:
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) or the Republican National Committee (RNC) releases an official statement disputing the results of the 2024 US Presidential Election.
Legal Challenges:
Either major party files a lawsuit or other legal action challenging the... | 2024-07-07T14:11:43 | 2025-02-28T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T16:50:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nyd56zwl3b | Will Argentina beat Colombia? | Copa America 2024 Final | Winner at end of match after regular time and extra-time / penalty shoot-out if applicable. | 2024-07-07T08:02:22 | 2024-07-14T21:09:20 | 2024-07-14T21:09:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ho5s55fznq | Will Uruguay beat Colombia? | Copa America 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-06T20:10:03 | 2024-07-10T18:58:10 | 2024-07-10T18:58:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9p61vgkgn9 | Will an ISIS terrorist attack cause injury at Euro 24? | The FT Reports:
Germany could see a terrorist attack on the scale of the assault on a Moscow concert hall in March, German officials have warned, as the Euro 2024 football championship it is hosting neared its second week.
“Europe, and with it Germany, are in the crosshairs of jihadist organisations, in particular Is... | 2024-07-06T19:59:49 | 2024-07-15T23:59:00 | 2024-07-16T00:51:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o54g4n8ss6 | Will Israeli tanks enter Lebanon before the end of the month? | The Sentinel team estimates that the chance that at least three Israeli tanks will have rolled into Lebanon by the end of August is 65% (range, 58% to 70%).
This market resolves Yes if 3 tanks roll into Lebanon by the end of July.
I won’t bet on this market. | 2024-07-06T19:38:26 | 2024-08-01T23:59:00 | 2024-08-02T00:25:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eqhdgbrual | Will Biden OR Harris be the 2024 Democratic Nominee? | @/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
@/MarketManagerBot/will-kamala-harris-be-the-democrati | 2024-07-06T18:45:21 | 2024-08-05T22:10:30 | 2024-08-05T22:10:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wzz8e4gi5r | Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of Halloween? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-06T17:15:45 | 2024-09-30T21:51:26 | 2024-09-30T21:51:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5w2nutur4o | Will Kamala Harris win the debate against Trump? (based on polls) | Resolves based on the first such debate, resolves N/A if no such debate happens.
Will resolve based on polling conducted about the debate. In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 elect... | 2024-07-06T16:41:20 | 2024-09-20T13:09:36 | 2024-09-20T13:09:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tejqryziiz | Spain vs. France | Euro 2024 (Regular + Extra Time Only) | Resolves Yes = Spain wins at end of regular time / extra-time
Resolves 50%= Draw at end of regular time / extra-time
Resolves No = France wins at end of regular time / extra-time
Market does not include outcome of penalty shoot-out | 2024-07-06T15:37:57 | 2024-07-09T13:56:12 | 2024-07-09T13:56:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7hq0iueoeq | Will Netherlands beat England? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-06T14:49:33 | 2024-07-10T13:57:55 | 2024-07-10T13:57:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6unavmpfjd | Will we learn that Joe Biden has Parkinson's disease before the end of 2024? | Resolves based on credible media reports. I may trade, and resolves based on a mod (joshua)'s decision if someone disputes my resolution.
Criteria may be clarified/modified during the first few days after feedback. | 2024-07-06T13:49:30 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-08T23:07:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6jz62ddhlz | Will there be a red card in either semi-final of UEFA Euros 2024? | Will a red card be shown to any player or member of support team in either of the UEFA Euros 2024 semi-final games?
A red card is shown either for serious fouls/misconduct, or as the result of a player receiving two 'warning' yellow cards.
The market will resolve YES if any member of any of the teams playing the sem... | 2024-07-06T11:43:31 | 2024-07-10T15:59:00 | 2024-07-11T01:16:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pyxyef1z58 | Will Democratic delegates invoke the “good conscience” clause to oust Biden? | https://www.aei.org/op-eds/gaming-out-a-biden-exit/
Resolves YES if the clause is invoked to formally nominate someone other than Biden for 2024 Democratic Party presidential candidate. | 2024-07-05T22:14:30 | 2024-07-21T14:40:03 | 2024-07-21T14:40:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e33fo8tt0i | Will Bitcoin go below $50K in July 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-07-05T21:21:48 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T00:26:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ekpo226bdp | Will Argentina beat Canada? | Copa America 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-05T20:12:37 | 2024-07-09T18:54:47 | 2024-07-09T18:54:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ix6j7dhjgi | Will Spain beat France? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-05T16:13:30 | 2024-07-09T13:54:16 | 2024-07-09T13:54:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ni207sci8p | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 270 days of being attacked by them? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-05T12:33:16 | 2024-10-01T07:37:34 | 2024-10-01T07:37:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wylmmdwmkw | Will a group of at least 5 named Dem House Members or US Senators pressure Biden to drop out before July 20th? | Politico reports:
Two safe-seat members have already publicly urged Biden out. Two of the most endangered Democrats told local news outlets they’ve already written off Biden’s chances to win in November.
Behind the scenes, things are even more frenzied. There are multiple drafts of letters circulating among House Dem... | 2024-07-05T11:47:55 | 2024-07-19T23:59:00 | 2024-07-23T15:24:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tt75ez13z5 | Will Biden remain President through end of July 2024? | Resolves YES if Biden remains US President through the end of July 2024 (ET); resolves NO if he resigns, dies, or otherwise ceases to be President before then.
Temporary transfer of power under the 25th amendement (i.e. making his VP the Acting President) does not cause a YES resolution. (Acting President is different... | 2024-07-05T09:35:49 | 2024-07-31T21:59:00 | 2024-08-01T19:37:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i0uhf8ay1a | Will bitcoin end August 31, 2024 over $69000? | End of month California time | 2024-07-05T07:37:20 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T07:25:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jh1rqho043 | Will bitcoin end August 31, 2024 over $48000? | End of month California time | 2024-07-05T07:33:24 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T07:26:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-42tjls3r8h | Will Biden drop out before Trump reveals his VP? | Resolves YES if Biden drops out of the 2024 presidential race before Trump reveals his VP pick. | 2024-07-05T00:48:56 | 2024-07-15T12:41:27 | 2024-07-15T12:41:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-77bwfbf1kq | Will TSLA reach >$ 350 before 8pm EST on December 31st? | Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$350 ($350.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on the last trading day of the year at
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com) | 2024-07-04T20:06:50 | 2024-11-11T07:56:58 | 2024-11-11T07:56:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i4z1czklvn | Will a Governor be on the Democratic Presidential ticket for 2024? | Current or former, President or Veep, as of the official nomination of the ticket by the DNC. | 2024-07-04T20:00:33 | 2024-08-07T07:34:58 | 2024-08-07T07:34:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-v5unqilzf4 | Will Bitcoin go below $52K in July 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-07-04T18:01:58 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T00:26:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oelq9leptu | Will Kamala Harris say "unburdened" on camera between July 4th and July 31st? Ironically or not. | Kamala's "what can be, unburdened by what has been" has become a meme.
https://www.tiktok.com/@rohan.pinto/video/7386296632200940806
Will she go back to the well, or drop it ironically?
The market will resolve YES if there is video proof of a new case of "unburdened" from VP Harris -- from the month of July, 2024. | 2024-07-04T11:10:34 | 2024-07-31T20:27:51 | 2024-07-31T20:27:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8bg2gmki91 | Will Russian forces control majority of Chasiv Yar by November 5th, according to pro-Ukrainian mapper DeepStateMAP? | As of July 4th, there are reports about Ukrainian forces withdrawing from parts of Chasiv Yar in the face of Russian offensive.
https://deepnewz.com/ukraine/ukrainian-forces-withdraw-chasiv-yar-eastern-donetsk
[image]According to the pro-Ukrainian but fair-minded mappers at DeepStateMAP, the boundary between Russian ... | 2024-07-04T10:17:20 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T08:30:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-32wfq6hr74 | If Israel invades Lebanon, will Iran get involved with an aerial attack? | It seems likely that Israel might invade southern Lebanon within the next few months. Recently, Iran threatened with "an obliterating war" if such an invasion should occur. This raises the question "How serious is their threat?"
The question resolves strictly following two existing markets:
[markets]The question reso... | 2024-07-04T10:15:02 | 2024-10-01T15:31:41 | 2024-10-01T15:31:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2nbhhhvh0z | Will Biden drop out of the election during the ABC interview ? | President Joe Biden will sit down with ABC News for a Friday night primetime special in his first television interview since last week's presidential debate.
The president's poor performance in the debate has garnered calls for him to drop out of the race by politicians on both sides of the aisle.
Biden will speak to... | 2024-07-04T09:50:45 | 2024-07-06T02:59:00 | 2024-07-06T17:07:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-22hfpmu6zb | Will a sitting Democratic state governor call for Joe Biden to step down by end of July? (23 governors) | As of July 4th, three sitting Congressmen have called on Biden to step down.
But so far no Democrat Senators (50 of those) or state Governors (23 of those).
https://deepnewz.com/arizona/second-house-democrat-rep-grijalva-urges-biden-to-exit-presidential-race
[image]The market will resolve YES if any of those 23 gover... | 2024-07-04T09:34:06 | 2024-07-21T19:02:27 | 2024-07-21T19:02:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5yd7o6zsbr | Will a sitting Democratic Senator call for Joe Biden to step down by July 14th? | Now that several sitting Congressmen have called on Biden to step down, will there be a sitting Senator to do so?
https://deepnewz.com/arizona/second-house-democrat-rep-grijalva-urges-biden-to-exit-presidential-race
[image]
The market will resolve YES if there is a widely sourced media report (or official Twitter ac... | 2024-07-04T09:27:44 | 2024-07-10T17:06:43 | 2024-07-10T17:06:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rkqcy6rke | Will Bitcoin go below $55K in July 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-07-04T02:35:48 | 2024-07-05T21:20:19 | 2024-07-05T21:20:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mmyf468ggx | Will Jimmy Carter outlive Biden’s re-election campaign? | Resolves yes if jimmy is still alive on Nov 6. Otherwise resolves Yes if jimmy is still alive when Biden drops out. Otherwise resolves no. | 2024-07-03T22:34:50 | 2024-07-22T16:09:04 | 2024-07-22T16:09:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b4tc5cjhyb | Will Joe Biden drop out of the presidential race before 10:10 AM on 10/10? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-03T22:10:47 | 2024-07-21T14:49:07 | 2024-07-21T14:49:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zblop3b3ve | Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high by end of June 2025? ($407) | Using $407 as ATH
Must be verified by multiple exchanges | 2024-07-03T21:57:55 | 2024-12-10T08:12:21 | 2024-12-10T08:12:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k30gtidiye | Harris to pass Trump? | Resolves YES if Harris is listed as more likely to win than Trump at any point before election day on https://electionbettingodds.com/ | 2024-07-03T21:46:40 | 2024-08-07T08:55:49 | 2024-08-07T08:55:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nav2ajpah4 | Will Tesla TSLA reach a new all time high this year? | Using $407 as ATH
Must be verified by multiple exchanges | 2024-07-03T21:27:18 | 2024-12-10T08:18:35 | 2024-12-10T08:18:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jkbujbe3jj | Will the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nominee be a Woman? | Will resolve “yes” if/when the Democratic delegates select a female presidential nominee for the 2024 election.
Will resolve “no” if/when the Democratic delegates select a male presidential nominee for the 2024 election. | 2024-07-03T14:21:49 | 2024-08-06T06:22:40 | 2024-08-06T06:22:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dt9gutv4t3 | Will There Be an Upset in the 2024 Euro Quarterfinals? | Predict whether there will be an upset in any of the four quarterfinal matches of the 2024 Euro Championship. An upset is defined as a lower-seeded or less-favored team proceeding to the semi-finals at the expense of a higher-seeded or more-favored opponent.
Matchups + current odds per oddschecker.com
[image]If any ... | 2024-07-03T12:56:02 | 2024-07-07T00:33:42 | 2024-07-07T00:33:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fkhsl9uyi9 | Will Uruguay beat Brazil? | Copa America 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-03T11:38:56 | 2024-07-06T20:08:21 | 2024-07-06T20:08:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hp7mkb48d9 | Will Venezuela beat Canada? | Copa America 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-03T11:36:58 | 2024-07-05T20:10:05 | 2024-07-05T20:10:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2gxh1aucvt | Will Argentina beat Ecuador? | Copa America 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-03T11:36:02 | 2024-07-04T20:14:56 | 2024-07-04T20:14:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jyvbcs9o14 | Will Starship launch at least 2 Starlink satellites to orbit in 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-03T10:24:29 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-08T14:59:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fwio4yl6ps | Will Israeli troops enter the country of Lebanon before the end of August? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-03T09:39:53 | 2024-08-30T20:59:00 | 2024-08-30T21:03:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-934ov6uj9o | Will Joe Biden announce that he is both dropping out and resigning from the presidency before the end of July? | Resolves YES if Joe Biden announces both that he is no longer running for re-election and that he will be resigning and not completing his current term. These announcements before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time, but he does not have to have formally resigned and be out of office before the end of July. An announc... | 2024-07-03T09:32:13 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T07:03:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bcuoqt9anm | Will Jimmy Carter be alive up until Oct 2 2025, 12:01 am EST, one day after his 101st birthday? | This market will resolve Yes on Oct 2nd 2025, 12:01 am EST, if Jimmy Carter is still alive. If he dies before this date and time, it will resolve No. | 2024-07-03T09:13:22 | 2024-12-29T13:18:41 | 2024-12-29T13:19:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d432iklgys | Will Joe Biden endorse Kamala Harris for the Democratic Party Presidential Nomination before the end of July? | Resolves YES if Joe Biden endorses Kamala Harris to be the nominee instead of himself before the end of July 2024 in Pacific Time. Otherwise resolves NO on August 1st. | 2024-07-03T09:02:05 | 2024-07-21T15:13:53 | 2024-07-21T15:13:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8g41x10te | Will there be a third presidential debate in the 2024 US election? | This question resolves YES if there are at least three live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude... | 2024-07-03T08:44:19 | 2024-11-05T22:48:46 | 2024-11-05T22:48:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h8pta1u80f | Will there be a second presidential debate in the 2024 US election? | This question resolves YES if there are at least two live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) featuring at least one major party candidate (whoever they may be) before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1... | 2024-07-03T08:43:25 | 2024-09-11T00:03:12 | 2024-09-11T00:03:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-drubkd1wop | Will GME reach $50 before the end of July 2024? | GameStop GME stock closed at $23.98 on July 2nd 2024 | 2024-07-02T22:31:34 | 2024-07-31T14:03:41 | 2024-07-31T14:03:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7n58fdpeax | Will a second sitting Democrat Congressman or Senator publicly urge Biden to drop out before July 7th? | On Tuesday July 2nd, Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas) has become the first Democratic lawmaker to publicly call on President Joe Biden to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race.
https://deepnewz.com/texas/rep-lloyd-doggett-becomes-first-democratic-lawmaker-to-urge-biden-to-withdraw
[image]Will another sitting Democratic... | 2024-07-02T20:37:55 | 2024-07-03T19:07:53 | 2024-07-03T19:07:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1edm179r5x | Will Harris debate Trump before the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-02T15:08:11 | 2024-09-10T18:03:29 | 2024-09-10T18:03:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-32oy3ido3q | Will Netherlands beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-02T13:54:23 | 2024-07-06T13:55:15 | 2024-07-06T13:55:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pamh63r4zj | Will Biden's interview with George Stephanopoulos increase his odds of winning? | Resolves to YES if Biden's odds of winning the presidency on Polymarket are higher immediately after the extended interview first airing than immediately before the airing of the extended interview began. Resolves to NO otherwise.
"President Joe Biden will give an interview to ABC’s George Stephanopoulos later this we... | 2024-07-02T13:23:43 | 2024-07-07T23:52:13 | 2024-07-07T23:52:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kjdrsf9f9j | Will there be another Democratic party presidential debate? | Resolves YES if there is a debate between potential Democratic nominees (e.g. Harris, Newsom, Whitmer, Biden etc.) prior to the 2024 Democratic National Convention. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2024-07-02T12:28:56 | 2024-08-11T21:01:42 | 2024-08-11T21:01:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dkknh6z9yh | [Metaculus] Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025? | Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25416/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
If Joe Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, this ques... | 2024-07-02T11:28:28 | 2024-12-09T18:52:17 | 2024-12-09T18:52:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mfi71e70er | [Metaculus] Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democra...nomination for President? | Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/25755/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern o... | 2024-07-02T03:27:38 | 2024-07-15T03:11:26 | 2024-07-15T03:11:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ltx4xjufjs | Congress impeaches Supreme Court justices by EOY? | Resolves YES if 2 or more Supreme Court justices are impeached by Congress by EOY
https://www.newsweek.com/supreme-court-justices-impeachment-aoc-1919728 | 2024-07-01T22:33:02 | 2024-12-31T02:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:11:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6skv683fgj | Biden formally nominated in July? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden is formally nominated by the Democratic National Committee as the Democratic presidential candidate by July 31, 2024 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
[image]https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-01/democrats-weigh-early-biden-nomination-... | 2024-07-01T21:21:29 | 2024-07-21T14:40:58 | 2024-07-21T14:40:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zai1ck9fg6 | Will Portugal beat France? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-07-01T16:33:43 | 2024-07-05T15:50:54 | 2024-07-05T15:50:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tj13l0rpoj | Will Joe Biden tank his "statement on Supreme Court's immunity ruling" on July 1st? | Resolves YES if either
At least one of New York Times, Wall Street Journal, The Economist, or New Yorker reports by end of July 3rd that this public appearance reaffirmed concerns about Biden's age.
Such reporting only counts if I feel the article's author agrees with the 'reaffirmed concerns' opinion
This disquali... | 2024-07-01T15:28:53 | 2024-07-03T16:36:03 | 2024-07-03T16:36:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yh9gl5qtom | Will a Supreme Court justice be impeached this year? | AOC vows to file articles of impeachment:
https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4750034-ocasio-cortez-impeachment-articles-supreme-court-justices-trump-immunity/
The only Justice to be impeached was Associate Justice Samuel Chase in 1805. The House of Representatives passed Articles of Impeachment against him; however, ... | 2024-07-01T12:59:29 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:01:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x9fxl6kobf | Will Boeing plead guilty to criminal fraud rather than face trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-01T11:33:28 | 2024-07-08T05:15:54 | 2024-07-08T05:15:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zzy3958flx | Will Biden fire a senior member of his campaign staff this week? | Resolves according to credible media reports.
Motivated by this CNN article: "Biden’s family encourages him to stay in the race as they discuss whether top advisers should be fired" https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/30/politics/biden-family-camp-david-debate/index.html | 2024-07-01T09:48:16 | 2024-07-08T21:32:32 | 2024-07-08T21:32:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nvd17j1hkh | Will Biden give a nationally-televised interview or town hall in July? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-07-01T09:46:06 | 2024-07-06T22:36:02 | 2024-07-06T22:36:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2b26rn6qg1 | Will Bitcoin hit 66,000 in July 2024 | Market resolves yes if Bitcoin hits 66,000 in the month of July 2024
Source is coindesk.com | 2024-07-01T08:14:57 | 2024-07-17T06:09:16 | 2024-07-17T06:09:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e1qq17aetg | Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal during Euro 2024? | He has yet to score a goal during the European Cup. Will he end up goalless or will he score?
Will resolve YES if he scores according to https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/statistics/players/goals/ *
Will resolve NO if he doesn't.
*Penalties scored during penalty shoot-outs are not counted towards goals scored by indivi... | 2024-07-01T06:35:53 | 2024-07-05T14:43:26 | 2024-07-05T14:43:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zb5ojla7qg | Will Bitcoin hit $72K in July 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-07-01T01:36:46 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T00:27:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o28q5wwg69 | Will Bitcoin go below $58K in July 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-07-01T01:34:40 | 2024-07-04T02:30:24 | 2024-07-04T02:30:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sw3gqfsspl | Will either Biden or Harris win the 2024 Presidential Election? | Resolves YES if either Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is declared the winner of the 2024 US presidential election by the Associated Press, or NO if the election is called by the AP for anyone else.
This requires that either Biden or Harris be the presidential nominee on the winning ticket. For example, a ticket with News... | 2024-06-30T21:54:37 | 2024-11-06T15:51:45 | 2024-11-06T15:51:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7kbdk5mlml | Will anyone except Biden, Harris, or Trump be a major party nominee? | This market resolves YES if:
Anyone except Donald Trump is officially selected as the Republican Party presidential nominee by the end of the Republican National Convention, currently scheduled to occur July 15th - July 18th.
Anyone except Joe Biden or Kamala Harris is officially selected as the Democratic Party pre... | 2024-06-30T21:43:35 | 2024-08-22T22:37:03 | 2024-08-22T22:37:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rk2eveooes | Stranded astronauts depart on Boeing Starliner by July 21? | Clone of (and resolves identically to) https://polymarket.com/event/stranded-astronauts-depart-on-boeing-starliner-by-july-21?tid=1719805056151
The Boeing Starliner spacecraft, which arrived at the ISS on June 6, 2024, with NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, must depart within 45 days due to the Harmony ... | 2024-06-30T20:40:11 | 2024-07-21T04:59:00 | 2024-07-21T14:42:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mk641zra23 | Will Spain beat Germany? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-30T13:53:49 | 2024-07-05T11:41:29 | 2024-07-05T11:41:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oztwttoc8v | Joe Biden will drop out of the 2024 race for the American presidency by midnight on Friday, July 5th | PLEASE READ ALL FOLLOWING CAVEATS BEFORE BETTING ON THIS MARKET. BY BETTING ON THIS MARKET, YOU AGREE TO THE TERMS "AS-IS" AND ASSENT TO ANY EVENT OUTCOMES NOT ADDRESSED BY THESE TERMS AS BEING DECIDED ACCORDING TO MY PERSONAL DISCRETION.
Candidacy must have been at least informally concluded by 11:59PM on Friday, Jul... | 2024-06-30T13:14:41 | 2024-07-07T22:59:00 | 2024-07-13T23:09:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qvcf7iyu1v | Will Le Pen's National Rally Alliance get 275+ seats in French legislative election? | If National Rally Alliance gets 275+ seats, it resolves YES. Otherwise NO. | 2024-06-30T12:36:39 | 2024-07-07T14:59:00 | 2024-07-08T12:08:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nfw7sseazk | Will England beat Switzerland? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-30T11:55:01 | 2024-07-06T11:41:15 | 2024-07-06T11:41:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3d4c5e1q1v | If Biden drops out, will he endorse Kamala Harris the same day? | Resolves YES if Biden endorses Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination on the same day that he officially drops out of the race.
Resolves NO if Biden drops out but does not endorse Harris on the same day.
Resolves NA if Biden never drops out.
Update: Made this before I realized resolving NA is no longer an optio... | 2024-06-30T11:46:13 | 2024-07-21T15:58:34 | 2024-07-21T15:58:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yd7qzezyc5 | Will Biden make any gaffes in the next week according to the NY Times? | Resolves YES if there is a New York Times article describing Biden making a "gaffe" between June 30th at 11:40 AM PT and July 7th at 11:40 AM PT.
If the NY times specifically uses the word "gaffe" in relation to something Biden said during this time period, I will resolve YES. If the NY times does not use the word "... | 2024-06-30T11:44:10 | 2024-07-08T15:42:49 | 2024-07-08T15:42:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ec549nqqmg | Will Biden drop out after receiving the nomination? | Resolves YES if President Joe Biden officially announces his withdrawal or is confirmed to have withdrawn from the 2024 US presidential race after officially receiving the nomination.
In the event of any extenuating circumstances that prevent Joe Biden from continuing the race, this market will also resolve to YES. (De... | 2024-06-30T08:46:14 | 2024-07-21T14:27:15 | 2024-07-21T14:27:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8nuq4b0c5b | Will Jimmy Carter be alive to see another president beside Joe Biden? | This question will resolve as YES if Joe Biden is no longer officially the president of the United States and Jimmy Carter is still alive.
This question will resolve as NO if Jimmy Carter dies while Joe Biden is still officially the president of the United States.
If the timing of both events is too close to determin... | 2024-06-30T07:03:05 | 2024-12-30T05:44:59 | 2024-12-30T05:44:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dei4ssmcwz | Will Biden finish his term? | Clone of https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-complete-his-term-as-president?tid=1719729460020
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden successfully finishes his term as President of the United States of America without any interruptions. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will not reso... | 2024-06-29T23:42:00 | 2025-01-20T02:59:00 | 2025-01-20T11:58:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e2vmrasfyn | Will Interactive Broker's prediction market platform have $100mm in volume in 2024? | Background: Interactive Brokers is launching ForecastEx in July 2024.
| 2024-06-29T21:28:53 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:40:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8hgf39zmf | Will Jimmy Carter win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | #Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JimmyCarter | 2024-06-29T17:39:29 | 2024-11-06T16:47:17 | 2024-11-06T16:47:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7cu6jujd72 | Will any of these 10 pundits apologize by end of August for calling for Biden to drop out? | Many political commentators and pundits (who previously supported Biden) have called for Biden to drop out immediately following the debate. However, Democratic politicians have stuck by Biden publicly so far, creating the impression that maybe the preference cascade will stop at pundits. Will it reverse enough that so... | 2024-06-29T16:30:31 | 2024-08-31T23:59:00 | 2024-09-01T00:04:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ia3wsfijct | Will "Despicable Me 4" (2024) be the lowest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise since the original? (<$940M) | Source: BoxOfficeMojo
Franchise (worldwide) grosses:
Despicable Me: $543,239,815
Minions: The Rise of Gru: $940,203,765
Despicable Me 2: $970,766,005
Despicable Me 3: $1,034,799,409
Minions: $1,159,398,397
"Minions: The Rise of Gru" is currently the lowest grossing of the franchise since the 2015 original (which... | 2024-06-29T15:24:20 | 2024-09-07T23:59:00 | 2024-09-08T16:58:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ra03enxo4p | Will Sam Darnold start 10 or more games at QB in 2024? | Starts for any team count! | 2024-06-28T19:32:56 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-22T09:52:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u7pakil1lt | If Biden drops out, will Polymarket's odds of Trump winning decrease in the subsequent week? | If Biden does not drop out, this resolves N/A.
Resolves YES if the % chance of Trump winning in this market (https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719604009104) one week after Biden drops out is lower than it was before he drops out. Resolves NO otherwise.
I will define "before he drop... | 2024-06-28T12:58:41 | 2024-07-29T06:05:31 | 2024-07-29T06:05:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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