id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-zczan6uzy3 | Will Kamala Harris be appointed to another government position, such as Supreme Court Justice, before the Nov. election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-28T08:07:14 | 2024-11-04T21:20:22 | 2024-11-04T21:20:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wd2jfvwwox | Will there be a 2nd debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-28T07:57:23 | 2024-07-22T20:20:57 | 2024-07-22T20:20:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8rxjml0f7 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Election Day (Nov 5) 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-28T07:27:54 | 2024-11-05T14:24:25 | 2024-11-05T14:24:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w4l6r8bqau | Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024? | Biden's debate performance was not well received.
Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516
What a roller coaster it's been! With July 2/3 over... the... | 2024-06-27T20:51:56 | 2024-07-21T10:52:50 | 2024-07-21T10:52:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-b95gz1tkxv | Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election? | Resolves YES if the two men play at least 9 holes of normal golf before November 5, 2024.
Mini golf doesn’t count. | 2024-06-27T20:10:23 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T06:45:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i3ov1uz1at | Will someone replace Biden on the democratic ticket for any reason? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-27T19:57:39 | 2024-07-22T00:39:40 | 2024-07-22T00:39:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-thypzenktw | Will Polymarket give biden more than 30% probability on Biden winning the election, in the next week? | An average of 30% or more for any 24 hour window.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719596710299 | 2024-06-27T19:56:55 | 2024-07-04T19:57:36 | 2024-07-04T19:57:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b2jozj13on | Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript? | After the debate, I will ask Claude and ChatGPT to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. If they both choose the same winner, resolves to that (Trump = YES, Biden = NO). If they choose different winners, resolves to 50%.
In case one of them refuses to pick a winner, resolves to the win... | 2024-06-27T17:51:47 | 2024-06-28T17:30:00 | 2024-06-28T17:32:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-no9e1ub5ew | [LIVE TRADING ALLOWED] Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June? | This will resolve the same as: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
However, it's a play market, and will not close until it resolves. It will resolve once the linked market resolves (presumably, soon after the debate starts).
WHOEVER HAS THE FASTEST FINGERS CAN CLAIM THE ~100M IN LIQUI... | 2024-06-27T16:10:40 | 2024-06-27T19:50:02 | 2024-06-27T19:50:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-co495ppzq1 | Will India defeat South Africa in the 2024 T20 Twenty20 World Cup final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-27T15:00:17 | 2024-06-29T11:04:58 | 2024-06-29T11:04:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bvy2ourmrc | Will a second presidential debate take place between Trump and Biden in 2024? | This is not tied to any specific network or date. If Trump and Biden both personally attend a second debate, town hall, or other presidential forum / confrontation before election day, this market will resolve Yes. | 2024-06-27T14:07:21 | 2024-08-07T22:03:13 | 2024-08-07T22:03:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ztomkvqqc2 | Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign? | This market will resolve YES if, before November 5th 2024, there is proof that Joe Biden has used any drug considered a stimulant besides caffeine at any point this year.
Per Wikipedia:
Stimulants (also known as central nervous system stimulants, or psychostimulants, or colloquially as uppers) are a class of drugs th... | 2024-06-27T10:39:47 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T14:18:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zguwq4erjy | Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending? | Resolves YES if Trump posts something indicating or closely related to winning the debate according to my common sense judgment before June 28th, 11 PM ET. For example, I will resolve YES if he posts: "I won the debate," "Such an easy win," or "It was so easy to defeat Sleepy Joe." Statements like "Biden can't argue" o... | 2024-06-27T08:57:42 | 2024-06-28T10:07:10 | 2024-06-28T10:07:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5f3gis94w1 | Will Austria beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:06:54 | 2024-07-02T13:53:20 | 2024-07-02T13:53:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nqmiyoyv9y | Will Romania beat Netherlands? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:05:50 | 2024-07-02T10:58:47 | 2024-07-02T10:58:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cuobj02tk5 | Will Portugal beat Slovenia? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:03:28 | 2024-07-01T14:44:09 | 2024-07-01T14:44:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-46voloxc25 | Will Spain beat Georgia? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:02:24 | 2024-06-30T13:52:33 | 2024-06-30T13:52:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-litn8izcbf | Will England beat Slovakia? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:01:27 | 2024-06-30T11:38:27 | 2024-06-30T11:38:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-91jn0f6h9c | Will Germany beat Denmark? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T07:00:20 | 2024-06-29T14:21:26 | 2024-06-29T14:21:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j85p3jl2wp | Will Switzerland beat Italy? | Euro 2024 | Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out). | 2024-06-27T06:59:23 | 2024-06-29T11:02:56 | 2024-06-29T11:02:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e4zvpmwbmu | Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election? | Resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 presidential election is the candidate predicted most likely to win by Nate Silver’s model (released today, here) on Election Day. NO otherwise. | 2024-06-26T19:21:23 | 2024-11-06T22:21:15 | 2024-11-06T22:21:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vjidut1soy | Will France beat Belgium? | Euro 2024 | At match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out) will France have beat Belgium? | 2024-06-26T17:37:28 | 2024-07-01T10:51:22 | 2024-07-01T10:51:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mvejd9i9tf | Will Kamala Harris and the Republican Vice Presidential nominee shake hands at a Vice Presidential debate in 2024? | Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at?r=Sm9ueQ
Resolves “YES” if footage exists of Kamala Harris and the Republican VP nominee shaking hands at a vice presidential debate.
Resolves “NO” if they do not shake hands at a Vice presidential debate prior to the election.
I will n... | 2024-06-26T07:40:20 | 2024-07-27T18:08:22 | 2024-07-27T18:08:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fj4f2uylvf | Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before October 2024) | I was talking with my new friend Claude about some recent events, and it had no idea about them. So, being a good friend, I kept going back and forth copying all relevant information from the internet so that Claude would have the context it needed. Needless to say, this is annoying. With ChatGPT, I just say, “please b... | 2024-06-25T22:21:09 | 2024-09-30T14:46:05 | 2024-09-30T14:46:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ly7tsdpvhd | Will Spain beat England? ⚽|🏆 Euro 2024 Final | At the conclusion of the final match of the UEFA EURO 2024, including regular time, and if applicable, extra time and a penalty shoot-out, will Spain beat England?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/10thOfficial/uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop) | 2024-06-25T18:30:12 | 2024-07-14T14:01:08 | 2024-07-14T14:01:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-w1ssli39ws | 🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Texas defeat Michigan? | Kickoff: Saturday, September 7, 2024 - 10:00 AM EDT
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, Michigan
Other Week 2 markets:
(markets pending)
| 2024-06-25T17:58:06 | 2024-09-07T12:30:44 | 2024-09-07T12:30:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-47tcmmuxm8 | Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st? | The final verdict will be determined by the stock's closing price on June 28th | 2024-06-25T13:33:03 | 2024-06-30T04:50:51 | 2024-06-30T04:50:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ean2rep51a | Will Joe Biden Fall During the Presidential Debate? | President Biden is notorious for falling, sleeping, or getting lost... | 2024-06-25T13:09:45 | 2024-06-27T19:42:59 | 2024-06-27T19:42:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g1bl9yh622 | Will a new British record for swing, post war, be set at the 2024 general election? | At the 2015 general election, the SNP gained the constituency of Glasgow North East from Labour on a swing of 39.28% from Lab to SNP, a new post war record for swing between two established parties who had contested the seat at the last election. At the 2024 general election, will that record be beaten? | 2024-06-25T09:47:18 | 2024-07-03T15:59:00 | 2024-07-06T03:08:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vo4lts2216 | Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024? | Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of Assange must be longer than 10 minutes. | 2024-06-25T02:55:21 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T03:56:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mn8uvoeyvm | Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before October 2024) | I like Claude 3 and would commit exclusively to it if Anthropic added voice support like the one chatgpt has. If it happens before October 2024, I will resolve the market as yes. Slow and partial rollouts count.
PS: If Anthropic only adds a transcription feature like ChatGPT's, then the market will resolve 50%.
[ima... | 2024-06-24T20:43:54 | 2024-09-30T14:44:56 | 2024-09-30T14:44:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qq7s1l1378 | China will win more medals in the Paris Olympics than the USA | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-24T16:04:15 | 2024-08-11T09:31:50 | 2024-08-11T09:31:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lx52495kkb | Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024? | https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/rumored-apple-and-meta-collaboration-might-make-the-iphone-16-a-better-ai-phone
[image] | 2024-06-24T14:59:00 | 2024-11-30T20:59:00 | 2024-12-01T10:28:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pvsvn7b9o | Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate? | pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise | 2024-06-24T10:04:16 | 2024-06-26T10:30:03 | 2024-06-26T10:30:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o6ow2amrbv | Will Donald Trump terminate his participation in the presidential debate on June 27, 2024 prior to its stated end time? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-24T07:24:07 | 2024-06-27T20:24:50 | 2024-06-27T20:24:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vkafq4ontu | Will Zvi use Claude 3.5 for the majority of his LLM chats each month through October 2024? | How fast things change! Claude 3.5 Sonnet is clearly best right now. Will that change again soon?
Resolves to YES if Zvi uses Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a future Claude 3.5 Opus or Haiku for the majority of his chat LLM queries each month of July, August, September and October.
Resolves to NO if this is not the case for at... | 2024-06-24T04:18:13 | 2024-11-01T20:59:00 | 2024-11-02T15:08:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qh1d9ye1sp | Will OpenAI begin rolling out the new GPT-4o voice mode before July 15th? | Resolves YES if, from now until through July 14th, some portion of non-insider users are able to use the fancier voice mode (as opposed to the current text to speech system) that can, for example, talk faster or slower at will, or change the emotion and tone of the voice. That is, it roughly matches the GPT-4o demo. Ho... | 2024-06-24T00:18:02 | 2024-08-04T20:59:00 | 2024-08-24T11:07:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y35osr7huo | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-23T10:43:11 | 2024-10-01T07:37:43 | 2024-10-01T07:37:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jwz5w14u17 | Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump suffer a serious medical emergency before the election? (Non-intentional only) | I define “serious” as anything that requires hospitalization or a visit to the emergency department. An accident that results in trauma requiring advanced care such as hospitalization will also count. It does not count if the trauma is intentionally inflicted by someone else. | 2024-06-22T23:10:29 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T06:57:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5cgetiph65 | Will Bitcoin reach $80K before GPT 5 Releases? | Market open until one happens
Must be called GPT 5 and released to general consumers in some form
Must be $80K on multiple exchanges and reported in the media | 2024-06-22T11:42:14 | 2024-11-10T11:28:46 | 2024-11-10T11:28:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d9ky3ohiul | Will the next GPT correctly tell me the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30? | I will ask the next iteration of ChatGPT the following question: "What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?". Will it answer -5 on the first try?
Some clarifications:
By "next iteration of ChatGPT", I mean the first version of ChatGPT whose number is greater than 4. I'm imagining that that number w... | 2024-06-22T09:41:49 | 2025-02-27T15:26:38 | 2025-02-27T15:26:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-td6ztwn0s4 | Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-22T09:11:46 | 2024-06-27T18:29:25 | 2024-06-27T18:29:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-98ujdfuk20 | Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the first debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-22T09:07:47 | 2024-06-29T14:59:00 | 2024-06-29T16:58:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-czdea2zraa | Will Nvidia be the largest company by market cap at the end of June? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/ | 2024-06-21T23:11:57 | 2024-06-28T16:05:44 | 2024-06-28T16:05:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t1ltjjud4g | Will there be a Chinese AI better than OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic by the end of 2024? | Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinatopllm/china-top-llm | 2024-06-21T21:51:09 | 2024-10-16T09:26:46 | 2024-10-16T09:26:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6co59nkant | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/ | 2024-06-21T21:29:19 | 2024-10-31T14:18:23 | 2024-10-31T14:18:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6nfdcra9w5 | Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated? | For the market to resolve as YES, both of these conditions must be fulfilled:
✅ Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination (“the Nomination”):
This criterion is met if Donald Trump is officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election by the Republican National Committee.
Donald Trump is ... | 2024-06-21T15:35:22 | 2025-01-21T08:16:59 | 2025-01-21T08:16:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nvbwctisu2 | Will Chat GPT 5 release before Blue Monday 2025? | Must be called gpt 5 | 2024-06-21T13:53:43 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-20T21:10:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4qa0o50msx | Will Basil Zempilas become the leader of the Western Australian Liberal Party before the next state election in 2025? | Will the current Lord Mayor of the City of Perth run and take over the leadership of the Western Australian Liberal party before the March 2025 election? | 2024-06-21T12:48:17 | 2025-03-08T07:59:00 | 2025-03-10T09:43:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cvz5p592m6 | Will Destiny reach 850 000 Subscribers on his main Youtube channel by the end of this year? | Milestone reached https://www.youtube.com/@destiny | 2024-06-20T13:12:13 | 2024-11-05T18:21:57 | 2024-11-05T18:21:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1tjqv8vl8e | Will Donald Trump overcome a muted microphone at the first debate? | The first presidential debate, currently scheduled for June 27, will mute the candidates' microphones unless they are answering a question:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html
This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump manages to communicate an explicit message even th... | 2024-06-20T09:36:41 | 2024-06-27T21:59:00 | 2024-06-28T10:04:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j7ttgsm4s2 | Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 9/10/2024 ABC presidential debate? | According to the criteria set by ABC on 5/15/2024 here.
Whether or not:
The criteria change
The debate is cancelled
RFK Jr. ends up participating
"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of C... | 2024-06-20T08:38:53 | 2024-09-05T10:32:49 | 2024-09-05T10:32:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vxpjpai09i | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 6,000.00 before 5,000.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 5,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-06-20).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-06-20T07:11:24 | 2024-11-08T10:14:51 | 2024-11-08T10:14:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jpeedcm6n1 | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,700.00 before 5,300.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,700.00 or 5,300.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-06-20).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,300.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,700.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-06-20T07:11:06 | 2024-08-05T10:02:48 | 2024-08-05T10:02:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2xykgjy752 | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of August 2024? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/ | 2024-06-19T23:19:41 | 2024-08-30T20:59:00 | 2024-08-30T21:03:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hzip86t4fp | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change. | 2024-06-19T22:03:07 | 2024-07-21T07:57:26 | 2024-07-21T07:57:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1qgreqqg1o | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change. | 2024-06-19T22:03:07 | 2024-07-21T07:57:39 | 2024-07-21T07:57:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ymr5hhsq76 | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change. | 2024-06-19T22:01:50 | 2024-07-07T08:34:54 | 2024-07-07T08:34:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pg4tcgfip7 | Will the Houthis sink a third ship before 2025? | It's been confirmed the Houthis sank two ships in in the Red Sea, the Rubymar and the Tutor: https://apnews.com/article/houthi-rebels-ship-attack-red-sea-yemen-bfa7d321e55c5bb59b268b82ef3c56ba
This market will resolve YES if they sink a third ship before 2025. Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its o... | 2024-06-19T15:24:59 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:43:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fv3qjg3l2 | Will the orange paint at Stonehenge be cleaned up by July 1st 2024? | On June 19th, "climate activists" spray painted the monument at Stonehenge, for some reason.
https://deepnewz.com/britain/two-stop-oil-activists-arrested-spraying-stonehenge-orange-paint-ahead-summer
[image]Will the paint be removed by Juy 1st? According to official report or media articles mentioning the restoration... | 2024-06-19T10:22:05 | 2024-06-20T08:55:03 | 2024-06-20T08:55:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4daue931qf | Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July? | Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: Musk says they're aiming for "late July"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on ... | 2024-06-19T07:29:59 | 2024-07-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-01T19:36:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kcmdpcoyrs | Will Nvidia’s stock price fall more than 30% in less than 10 days before 2025? | To resolve YES, Nvidia’s stock price must fall by more than 30% within any period which is shorter than 10 consecutive calendar days before 2025. | 2024-06-19T07:27:13 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:25:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ze179ajynt | Will $NVDA have the largest market cap EOY 2024? | Resolves YES if on 2024-12-31 NVDA has the largest market cap.
(per NASDAQ market close last trading day of the year)
NO otherwise. | 2024-06-19T05:11:07 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T11:52:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ii4d7faxzp | Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024? | https://companiesmarketcap.com/
@/strutheo/will-microsoft-be-the-largest-compa
@/strutheo/will-apple-be-the-largest-company-i | 2024-06-18T20:37:51 | 2024-12-31T11:10:13 | 2024-12-31T11:10:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r3c29h8106 | Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024? | The Thai foreign minister announced a formal request to join BRICS in June 2024 at a meeting with Russia's Sergei Lavrov.
Will this membership become official in 2024?
The US or allies could put pressure on Thailand not to join what is increasingly seen as a pro-Russian, anti-US group.
[image]
https://deepnewz.com... | 2024-06-18T11:42:51 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T14:31:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j6aj5pdbw2 | UK General Election 2024 - Reform UK to win 7 or more seats | Resolution criteria:
YES - Reform get 7 or more seats in the up coming UK General Election
NO - Reform get 6 or less seats in the up coming UK general election | 2024-06-18T10:24:54 | 2024-07-05T09:16:55 | 2024-07-05T09:16:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4p4z5emli8 | Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024? | To resolve YES Domer must win the bet AND Martin must agree to pay it, actually send the money, and have this confirmed by Domer. Otherwise resolves NO. Can be approximate value as judged by me, to account for conversions / transaction fees.
Related market just about Domer winning, even if Shkreli does not pay up:
@... | 2024-06-18T10:24:44 | 2024-07-17T07:39:41 | 2024-07-17T07:39:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wua2o670j8 | Will the pope announce the second coming of Jesus Christ within the next 30 days ? | The second coming of Jesus Christ is a central belief in Christianity, prophesied in the Bible to signify the end of the world and the final judgment. Christians believe that Jesus will return to Earth to fulfill God's plan for humanity.
The pope, as the head of the Roman Catholic Church, wields significant spiritual... | 2024-06-18T08:14:59 | 2024-07-18T14:59:00 | 2024-07-21T04:25:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qg1zzcqj1u | Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | El Clásico | October 26, 2024 match
Team A win = YES
Team B win = NO
Draw = NO
Cancelled = NO
Postponed / Delayed = Adjusted close date | 2024-06-18T07:29:42 | 2024-10-26T20:59:00 | 2024-10-26T21:25:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-94r0v4azuu | Euro 2024 - will Kylian Mbappe score a goal? | Kylian Mbappe was the top goalscorer at the most recent World Cup. He may well become the top World Cup goalscorer of all time - he's currently in equal 6th place with Pele on 12 goals and at 25 he's got a lot of years left in him.
But he has somehow never scored in the Euros. He didn't score in yesterday's 1-0 win ov... | 2024-06-18T01:58:07 | 2024-06-25T10:55:11 | 2024-06-25T10:55:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-du2tane7kn | Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025? | AI is hyped, and AI has intrinsic value.
If three companies from:
Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Tesla,
ASML, TSMC, or Intel.
have a single day drop in share price above 10% of market cap.
Basically, if history rhymes with the dot-com bubble.
See e.g. https://money.cnn.com/2000/10/12/investing... | 2024-06-18T01:09:30 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T14:31:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kuy46mxhg4 | Is $DJT real? | This question will resolve to "Yes" if, there is definitive evidence confirming that Donald J Trump is associated with the DJT token (address HRw8mqK8N3ASKFKJGMJpy4FodwR3GKvCFKPDQNqUNuEP) by June 25, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." | 2024-06-17T22:23:26 | 2024-06-25T21:59:00 | 2024-07-01T16:02:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ctz6todnzb | When all the votes are counted in the UK's general election, will Reform UK poll more votes than the Conservative Party? | At the end of the election, when the 650th constituency has declared will Reform UK have more votes than the Conservative Party? This question will resolve as YES, if Reform UK have a higher vote tally than the Conservatives and NO, if the reverse is true | 2024-06-17T11:03:54 | 2024-07-03T15:59:00 | 2024-07-05T00:30:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-asr300wjka | Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | Current Apple Watch does not have Apple intelligence. | 2024-06-17T06:19:08 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-04T06:03:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8n8prosolx | Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024? | Current HomePod does not have Apple intelligence. | 2024-06-17T04:06:24 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-04T06:03:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qi9bcqyjft | Will Israel hold elections before 7th October 2024? | Anti-government protesters are demanding that Benjamin Netanyahu calls an election before 7th October - the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet following the resignation of Benny Gantz:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/17/middle-east-crisis-live-... | 2024-06-17T02:31:53 | 2024-10-06T15:59:00 | 2024-10-07T07:18:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qzgibjhxpg | Will The Guardian issue a correction to its EA/Manifest/FTX article? | The Guardian piece here:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/16/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-eugenics-scientific-racism
Reportedly contains many factual errors:
See https://x.com/ohabryka/status/1802563541633024280?t=8IhUv03x6PKq_r5MwLbPuA&s=19
Resolves yes if one or more of these are corrected (eithe... | 2024-06-17T00:45:22 | 2024-06-17T20:57:31 | 2024-06-17T20:57:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rxzqh20bxj | NOAA - Will October 2024 be the hottest October on record? (Global) | Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month. A tie will resolve “no”.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/ | 2024-06-16T18:23:43 | 2024-11-13T08:27:12 | 2024-11-13T08:27:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fdup4z2017 | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 150 days of being attacked by them? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-16T14:43:16 | 2024-09-15T04:29:10 | 2024-09-15T04:29:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1lpjdga097 | Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program? | On November 5th, 2024, a vote is slated to occur in the US state of Washington on Initiative 2117: Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (https://src.wastateleg.org/initiative-2117-stop-hidden-gas-tax/), which if passed would ban the state's “cap and trade” program and repe... | 2024-06-16T14:40:29 | 2024-11-15T20:59:00 | 2024-11-18T07:25:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mjcq7wtphk | Will Donald Trump make a tweet on Twitter/X before the USA's 2024 election voting begins? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-15T22:51:03 | 2024-08-12T08:27:59 | 2024-08-12T08:27:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lv41nqg73m | Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024? | Rock paper scissors poker is a poker variant with simultaneous betting we devised during Manifest. Read the rules here. The game is simpler, faster-paced, and more social than regular poker—the pickleball to hold-em's tennis. I think it could catch on...
If I search for the phrase "rock paper scissors poker" on Google... | 2024-06-15T21:21:03 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:40:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0kayd0v535 | Will "House of the Dragon" S2E1 ("A Son for a Son") be rated >8.7 on IMDB, 2 days after release? (S1 premiere = 8.7) | Resolution
"House of the Dragon" S2E1 ("A Son for a Son") IMDB link
This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (June 18th), at noon PT.
This market closes when the episode premieres.
I will use the precision listed by IMDD (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality. ... | 2024-06-15T07:55:29 | 2024-06-17T04:43:45 | 2024-06-18T12:31:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fowtbqt3a6 | Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance) | Resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced as one of the following three people:
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
These are widely considered the top contenders as of today (mid-June). Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/br... | 2024-06-15T07:23:55 | 2024-07-15T14:40:46 | 2024-07-15T14:40:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-t22tvwu40b | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the NBA finals on Monday, June 17? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-15T06:01:02 | 2024-06-17T20:02:51 | 2024-06-17T20:02:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8rcs13fpv | Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) earn a grandmaster norm in 2024? | GM norm requires achieving 2600+ performance rating in a classical tournament. More info here: https://chessgoals.com/how-to-get-a-grandmaster-norm/
Levy was close to getting the norm at the just concluded Madrid Chess Festival, but he lost in his second to last game and only reached performance rating of
2531. He re... | 2024-06-15T04:54:56 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:32:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7m2nnucz6n | Will London reach 35°C or higher anytime this year? | As shown via here (Max Temperature via LONDON CITY AIRPORT STATION)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/gb/london/EGLC/date/2024-6
| 2024-06-15T03:05:46 | 2024-06-30T15:59:00 | 2024-11-19T15:01:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9wzckc1x4j | UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 6,000,000 votes? | Two weeks ago, Nigel Farage returned as leader of Reform UK and said that his party would win over 4 million votes. This seemed like a very bold claim, but Manifold's predictors think that there's a good chance he's right:
@/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot
Now Farage has upped the ante and said that... | 2024-06-15T01:01:48 | 2024-07-06T02:39:10 | 2024-07-06T02:39:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kna87h3ldi | Will Biden be nominated via virtual roll call? | Resolves YES if Joe Biden is nominated via virtual roll call before the DNC convention (currently scheduled for August 19).
Resolves NO if someone else is nominated or if Joe Biden is nominated during the DNC convention. | 2024-06-14T22:31:34 | 2024-07-21T14:27:54 | 2024-07-21T14:27:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a8oeclanxb | Will TRUMP go on the DWARKESH PODCAST before the election in 2024 | Closes on the election in November 2024 | 2024-06-14T13:06:14 | 2024-11-04T23:59:00 | 2024-11-05T10:20:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x87dyzt44a | Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) win his last game at Madrid Festival on Saturday? | He cannot get a GM norm anymore after losing last game. Can he at least finish with a win?
He has white pieces vs FM Daniel Tabuenca Mendataurigoitia (2355). | 2024-06-14T11:44:40 | 2024-06-15T03:46:53 | 2024-06-15T03:46:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ofxi6ppvn | Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Will RFK Jr. receive the second-highest number of votes in any US state (or DC) in the 2024 general election?
A recent Utah poll shows RFK Jr. tied with Biden for second place | 2024-06-14T10:45:54 | 2024-11-06T08:54:10 | 2024-11-06T08:54:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b6h3ow8oj9 | Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com? | Will “Deadpool and Wolverine” have an IMDb rating of 9 or higher on Feb. 1, 2025? | 2024-06-14T09:08:36 | 2025-02-01T20:59:00 | 2025-02-14T14:08:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pf6yycx4mp | Will Robert F Kennedy Jr. Get a Higher % of Votes in Utah than The Democratic Presidential Candidate? | recently polling has shown Kennedy is tying Biden in polling
<https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1801640774049964515>
Resolves YES if the final tally shows RFK getting more votes than Biden in Utah for the 2024 elections. Resolves NO if otherwise.
If the Biden swaps out for another Democratic candidate, they will ... | 2024-06-14T08:52:53 | 2024-08-23T21:39:28 | 2024-08-23T21:39:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ckza4h48k3 | Will X (FKA Twitter) reverse their Private Like policy by end of 2024? | Resolution criteria
Yes - Before the end of the year, Likes are made public again - reverting back to how they were.
No - Before the end of the year, Likes remain private or visibility is expanded to a select choice. Any policy change that doesn't effectively revert this change will resolve to no. | 2024-06-14T06:29:36 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-03T01:59:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zebcm4fq2b | Will another Israeli minister resign from the government before 2025? | Since the start of war 4 ministers resigned, 3 of them after joining a "unity government" at the start of war.
This will resolve to YES if until January 1st 2025 another minister will send an official resignation letter to the prime minister, and it will be announced on a verified minister account or in a major news p... | 2024-06-14T04:58:23 | 2024-12-31T22:40:34 | 2024-12-31T22:40:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0f4hks70hy | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the NBA finals today? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-14T03:34:09 | 2024-06-15T05:57:13 | 2024-06-15T05:57:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sdknfm4imk | Will Argentina win Copa America 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-13T21:21:48 | 2024-07-14T20:59:00 | 2024-07-14T21:26:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rmg7s4fun7 | Will Idaho take steps to preserve PornHub access before June 27? | Background
[image]Idaho created a law that requires adult websites to verify the age of their users in an effort to stop children from accessing online pornography. PornHub has opted to restrict access rather then comply with the age verification law.
Will the Idaho government take any emergency action to prevent th... | 2024-06-13T20:16:16 | 2024-06-27T23:59:00 | 2024-06-28T16:46:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gwzargffmo | Will Taylor Swift give a speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention? | A speech is one minute or more of consecutive speaking time, where singing does not count as speaking. | 2024-06-13T17:55:47 | 2024-08-22T23:06:46 | 2024-08-22T23:06:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.