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mani-zczan6uzy3
|
Will Kamala Harris be appointed to another government position, such as Supreme Court Justice, before the Nov. election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-28T08:07:14
|
2024-11-04T21:20:22
|
2024-11-04T21:20:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wd2jfvwwox
|
Will there be a 2nd debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump in the 2024 election cycle?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-28T07:57:23
|
2024-07-22T20:20:57
|
2024-07-22T20:20:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g8rxjml0f7
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on Election Day (Nov 5) 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-28T07:27:54
|
2024-11-05T14:24:25
|
2024-11-05T14:24:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w4l6r8bqau
|
Will Joe Biden drop out of the election by end of July 2024?
|
Biden's debate performance was not well received.
Polymarket has him dropping out at 38% the night after the debate. With Gavin Newsom leading the field to replace Biden.
https://polymarket.com/event/will-biden-drop-out-of-presidential-race?tid=1719546640516
What a roller coaster it's been! With July 2/3 over... the Polymarket odds have oscillated from as high as 80-90% to well below 50% to now at 78% as of July 20th.
Of course this market is for Biden to drop out overall, not before the end of the month. Although the announcement could come any time, including this week.
[image]
But will he drop out by end of July 2024? If Biden is still the candidate in August 1st 2024, then the market will resolve NO. Anything else (death, resignation, incapacitation) will resolve as YES.
The Democratic Party convention is on August 19th 2024, so there is a possible "gray area" where Biden thinks he is running (has not said he's dropping out) but is not considered the party nominee officially.
In that unlikely scenario, we will use common sense and Democratic party statements. For example -- and this is very unlikely -- if the Democratic national party endorses another candidate publicly, or announces that Biden should step down and that there is a specific candidate would should replace him. That will also resolve in YES.
In other words, there are three scenarios where Biden steps down or is pushed out:
Biden steps down (makes a statement)
Biden is forced to step down (and acknowledges it)
Biden is forced to step down (but does not acknowledge it)
The market is primarily about the first case but all three resolve in YES.
If Biden is still the candidate but there is the possibility of an open convention, that still resolves NO. Since the convention is in August.
If the convention is set to replace Biden, this is well known, the party announces Biden needs to step down, he will not be the nominee, but Biden does not acknowledge this, that could still resolve as YES. Note that this specific outcome is very unlikely.
In the vast majority of cases, if Biden steps down or is forced out, "Team Biden" -- himself, Jill Biden, etc -- will make this clear in a statement. But this is not the only way that this market can resolve.
|
2024-06-27T20:51:56
|
2024-07-21T10:52:50
|
2024-07-21T10:52:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b95gz1tkxv
|
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump play a golf match before the election?
|
Resolves YES if the two men play at least 9 holes of normal golf before November 5, 2024.
Mini golf doesn’t count.
|
2024-06-27T20:10:23
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T06:45:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i3ov1uz1at
|
Will someone replace Biden on the democratic ticket for any reason?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-27T19:57:39
|
2024-07-22T00:39:40
|
2024-07-22T00:39:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-thypzenktw
|
Will Polymarket give biden more than 30% probability on Biden winning the election, in the next week?
|
An average of 30% or more for any 24 hour window.
https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1719596710299
|
2024-06-27T19:56:55
|
2024-07-04T19:57:36
|
2024-07-04T19:57:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b2jozj13on
|
Will Trump win the first Trump vs Biden presidential debate according to LLMs on the debate transcript?
|
After the debate, I will ask Claude and ChatGPT to pick a winner based on the debate transcript, using the prompts below. If they both choose the same winner, resolves to that (Trump = YES, Biden = NO). If they choose different winners, resolves to 50%.
In case one of them refuses to pick a winner, resolves to the winner picked by the other model. In case both of them refuse, which hopefully will be unlikely, then I will attempt to prompt engineer both of them to actually pick a winner. (I tested these prompts on the 2020 debates and they did pick winners.)
Claude prompt (Claude 3.5 Sonnet)
Using the following debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?
<transcript>
PASTE TRANSCRIPT HERE
</transcript>
Again, if you have to pick just one winner, who would it be?
ChatGPT prompt (GPT 4o)
Look up the transcript of the first 2024 Biden vs Trump debate
Using the debate transcript, which presidential candidate won the debate? I understand that there can be different perspectives on who won the debate, but if you had to pick a winner, who would it be?
(With ChatGPT, the transcript was too long to paste into the prompt, and sometimes it randomly decided to web search completely unrelated topics, so I'm not sure how reliable this will be, if it doesn't actually give an answer about the debate but instead answers about diamonds or something then it will count as an abstention.)
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-06-27T17:51:47
|
2024-06-28T17:30:00
|
2024-06-28T17:32:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-no9e1ub5ew
|
[LIVE TRADING ALLOWED] Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
|
This will resolve the same as: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at
However, it's a play market, and will not close until it resolves. It will resolve once the linked market resolves (presumably, soon after the debate starts).
WHOEVER HAS THE FASTEST FINGERS CAN CLAIM THE ~100M IN LIQUIDITY
|
2024-06-27T16:10:40
|
2024-06-27T19:50:02
|
2024-06-27T19:50:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-co495ppzq1
|
Will India defeat South Africa in the 2024 T20 Twenty20 World Cup final?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-27T15:00:17
|
2024-06-29T11:04:58
|
2024-06-29T11:04:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bvy2ourmrc
|
Will a second presidential debate take place between Trump and Biden in 2024?
|
This is not tied to any specific network or date. If Trump and Biden both personally attend a second debate, town hall, or other presidential forum / confrontation before election day, this market will resolve Yes.
|
2024-06-27T14:07:21
|
2024-08-07T22:03:13
|
2024-08-07T22:03:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ztomkvqqc2
|
Will there be proof that Joe Biden is using stimulant drugs (besides caffeine) during the 2024 campaign?
|
This market will resolve YES if, before November 5th 2024, there is proof that Joe Biden has used any drug considered a stimulant besides caffeine at any point this year.
Per Wikipedia:
Stimulants (also known as central nervous system stimulants, or psychostimulants, or colloquially as uppers) are a class of drugs that increase the activity of the brain. They are used for various purposes, such as enhancing alertness, attention, motivation, cognition, mood, and physical performance. Some of the most common stimulants are caffeine, nicotine, amphetamines, cocaine, methylphenidate, modafinil.
This market does not require that Biden admit to using stimulants, a consensus of credible reporting based on strong evidence would still be sufficient to resolve this market.
Hypothetical examples of strong evidence:
A verified recent prescription for a stimulant in Biden's name
Testimony from multiple reliable staffers close to Biden
Leaked behind-the-scenes audio/video of Biden using stimulants
However, a direct confirmation by Biden would also be sufficient to resolve this market without any other evidence.
If the requirements to resolve this market YES are not met by November 5th, this market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-06-27T10:39:47
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T14:18:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zguwq4erjy
|
Will Trump claim on Truth Social that he won the debate within 24 hours of it ending?
|
Resolves YES if Trump posts something indicating or closely related to winning the debate according to my common sense judgment before June 28th, 11 PM ET. For example, I will resolve YES if he posts: "I won the debate," "Such an easy win," or "It was so easy to defeat Sleepy Joe." Statements like "Biden can't argue" or "Biden is so bad at debates" will not resolve this market.
Resolves NO if he hasn't posted it by June 28th, 11 PM ET.
Resolves 50%/50% if the debate doesn't take place, is rescheduled by more than a few hours, or if the expression he uses is highly controversial.
Only posts from this account ( https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump ) will be considered including images and videos, but no linked articles or quoted statements from other persons or media apart from himself.
I will not hold an active position in this market.
[link preview]
|
2024-06-27T08:57:42
|
2024-06-28T10:07:10
|
2024-06-28T10:07:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5f3gis94w1
|
Will Austria beat Turkiye? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:06:54
|
2024-07-02T13:53:20
|
2024-07-02T13:53:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nqmiyoyv9y
|
Will Romania beat Netherlands? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:05:50
|
2024-07-02T10:58:47
|
2024-07-02T10:58:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cuobj02tk5
|
Will Portugal beat Slovenia? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:03:28
|
2024-07-01T14:44:09
|
2024-07-01T14:44:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-46voloxc25
|
Will Spain beat Georgia? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:02:24
|
2024-06-30T13:52:33
|
2024-06-30T13:52:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-litn8izcbf
|
Will England beat Slovakia? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:01:27
|
2024-06-30T11:38:27
|
2024-06-30T11:38:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-91jn0f6h9c
|
Will Germany beat Denmark? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T07:00:20
|
2024-06-29T14:21:26
|
2024-06-29T14:21:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j85p3jl2wp
|
Will Switzerland beat Italy? | Euro 2024
|
Winner at match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out).
|
2024-06-27T06:59:23
|
2024-06-29T11:02:56
|
2024-06-29T11:02:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e4zvpmwbmu
|
Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?
|
Resolves YES if the winner of the 2024 presidential election is the candidate predicted most likely to win by Nate Silver’s model (released today, here) on Election Day. NO otherwise.
|
2024-06-26T19:21:23
|
2024-11-06T22:21:15
|
2024-11-06T22:21:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vjidut1soy
|
Will France beat Belgium? | Euro 2024
|
At match conclusion (regular, extra, penalty shoot-out) will France have beat Belgium?
|
2024-06-26T17:37:28
|
2024-07-01T10:51:22
|
2024-07-01T10:51:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mvejd9i9tf
|
Will Kamala Harris and the Republican Vice Presidential nominee shake hands at a Vice Presidential debate in 2024?
|
Inspired by: https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-trump-and-biden-shake-hands-at?r=Sm9ueQ
Resolves “YES” if footage exists of Kamala Harris and the Republican VP nominee shaking hands at a vice presidential debate.
Resolves “NO” if they do not shake hands at a Vice presidential debate prior to the election.
I will not trade on this Market.
|
2024-06-26T07:40:20
|
2024-07-27T18:08:22
|
2024-07-27T18:08:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fj4f2uylvf
|
Will Anthropic add web browsing support to Claude within ~3 months? (before October 2024)
|
I was talking with my new friend Claude about some recent events, and it had no idea about them. So, being a good friend, I kept going back and forth copying all relevant information from the internet so that Claude would have the context it needed. Needless to say, this is annoying. With ChatGPT, I just say, “please browse X.” I wonder if this would also be possible before October 2024.
@/Soli/will-anthropic-add-voice-support-to
|
2024-06-25T22:21:09
|
2024-09-30T14:46:05
|
2024-09-30T14:46:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ly7tsdpvhd
|
Will Spain beat England? ⚽|🏆 Euro 2024 Final
|
At the conclusion of the final match of the UEFA EURO 2024, including regular time, and if applicable, extra time and a penalty shoot-out, will Spain beat England?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/10thOfficial/uefa-euro-cup-2024-tournament-prop)
|
2024-06-25T18:30:12
|
2024-07-14T14:01:08
|
2024-07-14T14:01:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w1ssli39ws
|
🏈 2024 NCAAF: Will Texas defeat Michigan?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, September 7, 2024 - 10:00 AM EDT
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, Michigan
Other Week 2 markets:
(markets pending)
|
2024-06-25T17:58:06
|
2024-09-07T12:30:44
|
2024-09-07T12:30:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-47tcmmuxm8
|
Will NVIDIA stock reach $150 by July 1st?
|
The final verdict will be determined by the stock's closing price on June 28th
|
2024-06-25T13:33:03
|
2024-06-30T04:50:51
|
2024-06-30T04:50:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ean2rep51a
|
Will Joe Biden Fall During the Presidential Debate?
|
President Biden is notorious for falling, sleeping, or getting lost...
|
2024-06-25T13:09:45
|
2024-06-27T19:42:59
|
2024-06-27T19:42:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g1bl9yh622
|
Will a new British record for swing, post war, be set at the 2024 general election?
|
At the 2015 general election, the SNP gained the constituency of Glasgow North East from Labour on a swing of 39.28% from Lab to SNP, a new post war record for swing between two established parties who had contested the seat at the last election. At the 2024 general election, will that record be beaten?
|
2024-06-25T09:47:18
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-06T03:08:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vo4lts2216
|
Will Julian Assange be guest of The Joe Rogan Experience podcast in 2024?
|
Please note, to resolve YES, the appearance of Assange must be longer than 10 minutes.
|
2024-06-25T02:55:21
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T03:56:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mn8uvoeyvm
|
Will Anthropic add voice support to Claude within ~3 months? (before October 2024)
|
I like Claude 3 and would commit exclusively to it if Anthropic added voice support like the one chatgpt has. If it happens before October 2024, I will resolve the market as yes. Slow and partial rollouts count.
PS: If Anthropic only adds a transcription feature like ChatGPT's, then the market will resolve 50%.
[image]
|
2024-06-24T20:43:54
|
2024-09-30T14:44:56
|
2024-09-30T14:44:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qq7s1l1378
|
China will win more medals in the Paris Olympics than the USA
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-24T16:04:15
|
2024-08-11T09:31:50
|
2024-08-11T09:31:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lx52495kkb
|
Will Facebook (Meta) and Apple announce an AI partnership on an iPhone device by the end of November 2024?
|
https://www.techradar.com/computing/artificial-intelligence/rumored-apple-and-meta-collaboration-might-make-the-iphone-16-a-better-ai-phone
[image]
|
2024-06-24T14:59:00
|
2024-11-30T20:59:00
|
2024-12-01T10:28:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pvsvn7b9o
|
Will Nate Silver's 2024 general election model be released before the 1st Biden-Trump debate?
|
pretty straightforward...resolves yes if nate silver publishes/announces his model on substack before the debate starts, NO otherwise
|
2024-06-24T10:04:16
|
2024-06-26T10:30:03
|
2024-06-26T10:30:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o6ow2amrbv
|
Will Donald Trump terminate his participation in the presidential debate on June 27, 2024 prior to its stated end time?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-24T07:24:07
|
2024-06-27T20:24:50
|
2024-06-27T20:24:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vkafq4ontu
|
Will Zvi use Claude 3.5 for the majority of his LLM chats each month through October 2024?
|
How fast things change! Claude 3.5 Sonnet is clearly best right now. Will that change again soon?
Resolves to YES if Zvi uses Claude 3.5 Sonnet or a future Claude 3.5 Opus or Haiku for the majority of his chat LLM queries each month of July, August, September and October.
Resolves to NO if this is not the case for at least one month.
API calls do not count since there might be reason to go cheap or open weights.
|
2024-06-24T04:18:13
|
2024-11-01T20:59:00
|
2024-11-02T15:08:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qh1d9ye1sp
|
Will OpenAI begin rolling out the new GPT-4o voice mode before July 15th?
|
Resolves YES if, from now until through July 14th, some portion of non-insider users are able to use the fancier voice mode (as opposed to the current text to speech system) that can, for example, talk faster or slower at will, or change the emotion and tone of the voice. That is, it roughly matches the GPT-4o demo. However, it will still resolve YES if there are additional restrictions on the voice mode, but it's still clearly the same system that was in the demo.
Resolves NO otherwise. Solely ugrades to the text to speech which are not the system that was in the demo will resolve as no. It must be called something with "4o" on the name, and must be available on the ChatGPT website or app, otherwise it resolves no.
Question idea from @Flowers, who had a similar question that ends today, June 24th.
I will let myself bet in this market because it's fairly unambiguous resolution criteria. If there is any unexpected ambiguity, the question will resolve to yes if 90% is hit and sustained above 89% for 3 days any time after July 25th, or to no if 10% is hit and sustained below 11% for 3 days any time after July 25th.
|
2024-06-24T00:18:02
|
2024-08-04T20:59:00
|
2024-08-24T11:07:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y35osr7huo
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 180 days of being attacked by them?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-23T10:43:11
|
2024-10-01T07:37:43
|
2024-10-01T07:37:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jwz5w14u17
|
Will either Joe Biden or Donald Trump suffer a serious medical emergency before the election? (Non-intentional only)
|
I define “serious” as anything that requires hospitalization or a visit to the emergency department. An accident that results in trauma requiring advanced care such as hospitalization will also count. It does not count if the trauma is intentionally inflicted by someone else.
|
2024-06-22T23:10:29
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T06:57:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5cgetiph65
|
Will Bitcoin reach $80K before GPT 5 Releases?
|
Market open until one happens
Must be called GPT 5 and released to general consumers in some form
Must be $80K on multiple exchanges and reported in the media
|
2024-06-22T11:42:14
|
2024-11-10T11:28:46
|
2024-11-10T11:28:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d9ky3ohiul
|
Will the next GPT correctly tell me the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?
|
I will ask the next iteration of ChatGPT the following question: "What is the least integer whose square is between 15 and 30?". Will it answer -5 on the first try?
Some clarifications:
By "next iteration of ChatGPT", I mean the first version of ChatGPT whose number is greater than 4. I'm imagining that that number will be 4.5 or 5. (Note that ChatGPT 4o would not have qualified, since its number is still 4.) If no model with a larger number is released by the end of 2025, the question will resolve N/A.
If multiple versions are released at the same time, I will use the most advanced publicly-available version. (I currently pay for ChatGPT; if I stop paying, I'll ask someone who does.)
If ChatGPT says something like "4 if you don't include negative integers, -5 if you do", this question will resolve YES.
|
2024-06-22T09:41:49
|
2025-02-27T15:26:38
|
2025-02-27T15:26:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-td6ztwn0s4
|
Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-22T09:11:46
|
2024-06-27T18:29:25
|
2024-06-27T18:29:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-98ujdfuk20
|
Will Trump mention Hunter Biden in the first debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-22T09:07:47
|
2024-06-29T14:59:00
|
2024-06-29T16:58:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-czdea2zraa
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company by market cap at the end of June?
|
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
|
2024-06-21T23:11:57
|
2024-06-28T16:05:44
|
2024-06-28T16:05:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t1ltjjud4g
|
Will there be a Chinese AI better than OpenAI, Google, or Anthropic by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves to the exact same as the Kalshi market: https://kalshi.com/markets/chinatopllm/china-top-llm
|
2024-06-21T21:51:09
|
2024-10-16T09:26:46
|
2024-10-16T09:26:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6co59nkant
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of Halloween 2024?
|
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
|
2024-06-21T21:29:19
|
2024-10-31T14:18:23
|
2024-10-31T14:18:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6nfdcra9w5
|
Will Donald Trump NOT be inaugurated?
|
For the market to resolve as YES, both of these conditions must be fulfilled:
✅ Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination (“the Nomination”):
This criterion is met if Donald Trump is officially declared the Republican nominee for the 2024 presidential election by the Republican National Committee.
Donald Trump is not inaugurated:
This criterion is met if Donald Trump, after winning the Nomination, is not sworn in as President for any reason. This includes being replaced by another candidate, losing the general election, or any other circumstance that prevents his inauguration.
I may bet in this market. The close date may be extended if there’s any doubt about either criterion.
Update 2024-10-12 (PST): The market will not close before Inauguration Day (January 20, 2025). (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-06-21T15:35:22
|
2025-01-21T08:16:59
|
2025-01-21T08:16:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nvbwctisu2
|
Will Chat GPT 5 release before Blue Monday 2025?
|
Must be called gpt 5
|
2024-06-21T13:53:43
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-20T21:10:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4qa0o50msx
|
Will Basil Zempilas become the leader of the Western Australian Liberal Party before the next state election in 2025?
|
Will the current Lord Mayor of the City of Perth run and take over the leadership of the Western Australian Liberal party before the March 2025 election?
|
2024-06-21T12:48:17
|
2025-03-08T07:59:00
|
2025-03-10T09:43:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cvz5p592m6
|
Will Destiny reach 850 000 Subscribers on his main Youtube channel by the end of this year?
|
Milestone reached https://www.youtube.com/@destiny
|
2024-06-20T13:12:13
|
2024-11-05T18:21:57
|
2024-11-05T18:21:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1tjqv8vl8e
|
Will Donald Trump overcome a muted microphone at the first debate?
|
The first presidential debate, currently scheduled for June 27, will mute the candidates' microphones unless they are answering a question:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html
This question will resolve YES if Donald Trump manages to communicate an explicit message even though his microphone is muted. He must intend to communicate a specific message (even if that message is inarticulate) and the viewing audience, not just the moderators, must be able to perceive it.
Some examples of things that would qualify:
Shouting loudly enough for the viewers to hear him
Holding up a legible sign, cartoon, or doodle that communicates an idea
Holding up two fingers to indicate the number two
Continuing to speak after his time has elapsed and the moderators have muted him (edit: bearing in mind, as stated above, that he must be audible to the viewers; this is broken out separately to distinguish it from the last bullet point below, in which he goes over time but is not muted)
Some examples of things that would not qualify:
Shouting inarticulate noises, even if loudly enough to be heard
Holding up a scribble that is impossible to objectively decipher
Holding up one finger (you know which one) to indicate frustration or disgust
Going over time, as long as the moderators don't mute him (note that this includes him briefly finishing a thought or sentence he began before he was muted, even if the continuation is audible despite being muted)
EDIT: Shaking or nodding his head to indicate generalized disagreement or agreement with what someone else is saying
I will not bet in this market, and will do my best to resolve it objectively and fairly.
EDIT: In response to a very good question, common body language will probably NOT satisfy this question. For example, if Trump shakes his head to indicate disagreement with a question before (or instead of) answering it out loud. The spirit of the question requires that he be overcoming the muting of the microphones in some way; head-shaking, frowning, wincing, and similar gestures are not enough.
|
2024-06-20T09:36:41
|
2024-06-27T21:59:00
|
2024-06-28T10:04:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j7ttgsm4s2
|
Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 9/10/2024 ABC presidential debate?
|
According to the criteria set by ABC on 5/15/2024 here.
Whether or not:
The criteria change
The debate is cancelled
RFK Jr. ends up participating
"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet ABC's standards for reporting. Information on moderators, format and additional details will be provided at a later date."
As far as I know, ABC has not yet specified its acceptable poll standards, polling window, or eligibility deadline. If they clarify these points, I will follow their standards when resolving this market.
If the debate is cancelled, or for some other reason ABC never clarifies these points, I will mimic CNN's criteria to resolve this market: use a 99-day polling window, CNN's standards for acceptable polls, and an eligibility deadline of 9/3/2024.
|
2024-06-20T08:38:53
|
2024-09-05T10:32:49
|
2024-09-05T10:32:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vxpjpai09i
|
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 6,000.00 before 5,000.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 5,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-06-20).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,000.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b)
|
2024-06-20T07:11:24
|
2024-11-08T10:14:51
|
2024-11-08T10:14:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jpeedcm6n1
|
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,700.00 before 5,300.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,700.00 or 5,300.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-06-20).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,300.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,700.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-vjt56ivlet)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b)
|
2024-06-20T07:11:06
|
2024-08-05T10:02:48
|
2024-08-05T10:02:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2xykgjy752
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of August 2024?
|
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
|
2024-06-19T23:19:41
|
2024-08-30T20:59:00
|
2024-08-30T21:03:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hzip86t4fp
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-06-19T22:03:07
|
2024-07-21T07:57:26
|
2024-07-21T07:57:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1qgreqqg1o
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-06-19T22:03:07
|
2024-07-21T07:57:39
|
2024-07-21T07:57:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ymr5hhsq76
|
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 British Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-06-19T22:01:50
|
2024-07-07T08:34:54
|
2024-07-07T08:34:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pg4tcgfip7
|
Will the Houthis sink a third ship before 2025?
|
It's been confirmed the Houthis sank two ships in in the Red Sea, the Rubymar and the Tutor: https://apnews.com/article/houthi-rebels-ship-attack-red-sea-yemen-bfa7d321e55c5bb59b268b82ef3c56ba
This market will resolve YES if they sink a third ship before 2025. Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its own, or is not salvageable so it is purposely sank by a third party. Small ships are excluded, the ship must be over 100 feet long.
|
2024-06-19T15:24:59
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:43:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fv3qjg3l2
|
Will the orange paint at Stonehenge be cleaned up by July 1st 2024?
|
On June 19th, "climate activists" spray painted the monument at Stonehenge, for some reason.
https://deepnewz.com/britain/two-stop-oil-activists-arrested-spraying-stonehenge-orange-paint-ahead-summer
[image]Will the paint be removed by Juy 1st? According to official report or media articles mentioning the restoration of the monument.
This seems likely, but as the story points out, the stone is ancient, has living organisms on it, and rapid removal could cause further damage.
If there are no official reports about the cleanup, post-June 19th images of a cleaned-up Stonehenge will suffice.
|
2024-06-19T10:22:05
|
2024-06-20T08:55:03
|
2024-06-20T08:55:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4daue931qf
|
Will the 5th Starship test launch by end of July?
|
Resolves YES if a 5th Starship launch, intended to reach space, takes place by the end of July 2024 (local time at the launch site). Otherwise NO.
Context: Musk says they're aiming for "late July"
A "launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. (Exploding on the pad does not count.)
"Starship" is defined as any vehicle designs descended from the existing designs of Starship - i.e. if they make substantial changes or rename the vehicle, it still counts. But a vehicle based on e.g. the Falcon 9 would not count, even if SpaceX called it a Starship.
Only missions with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) count.
This is a binary version of https://manifold.markets/jack/when-will-there-be-a-5th-starship-l (fixed resolve date so that it can potentially be a prize market)
|
2024-06-19T07:29:59
|
2024-07-31T20:59:00
|
2024-08-01T19:36:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kcmdpcoyrs
|
Will Nvidia’s stock price fall more than 30% in less than 10 days before 2025?
|
To resolve YES, Nvidia’s stock price must fall by more than 30% within any period which is shorter than 10 consecutive calendar days before 2025.
|
2024-06-19T07:27:13
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:25:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ze179ajynt
|
Will $NVDA have the largest market cap EOY 2024?
|
Resolves YES if on 2024-12-31 NVDA has the largest market cap.
(per NASDAQ market close last trading day of the year)
NO otherwise.
|
2024-06-19T05:11:07
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T11:52:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ii4d7faxzp
|
Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap at the end of 2024?
|
https://companiesmarketcap.com/
@/strutheo/will-microsoft-be-the-largest-compa
@/strutheo/will-apple-be-the-largest-company-i
|
2024-06-18T20:37:51
|
2024-12-31T11:10:13
|
2024-12-31T11:10:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r3c29h8106
|
Will Thailand formally join BRICS in 2024?
|
The Thai foreign minister announced a formal request to join BRICS in June 2024 at a meeting with Russia's Sergei Lavrov.
Will this membership become official in 2024?
The US or allies could put pressure on Thailand not to join what is increasingly seen as a pro-Russian, anti-US group.
[image]
https://deepnewz.com/china/thailand-announces-plans-to-join-brics-nizhny-novgorod-summit
The market will resolve YES if Thailand officially joins BRICS, whether or not it is included in the acronym. It will resolve NO otherwise or if this is not confirmed in official media reports before the end of 2024.
|
2024-06-18T11:42:51
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:31:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j6aj5pdbw2
|
UK General Election 2024 - Reform UK to win 7 or more seats
|
Resolution criteria:
YES - Reform get 7 or more seats in the up coming UK General Election
NO - Reform get 6 or less seats in the up coming UK general election
|
2024-06-18T10:24:54
|
2024-07-05T09:16:55
|
2024-07-05T09:16:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4p4z5emli8
|
Will Martin Shkreli pay @Domer ~$30,000 USD as a result of their bet by the end of 2024?
|
To resolve YES Domer must win the bet AND Martin must agree to pay it, actually send the money, and have this confirmed by Domer. Otherwise resolves NO. Can be approximate value as judged by me, to account for conversions / transaction fees.
Related market just about Domer winning, even if Shkreli does not pay up:
@/strutheo/will-domer-win-his-70k-bet-against
[image][image]
|
2024-06-18T10:24:44
|
2024-07-17T07:39:41
|
2024-07-17T07:39:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wua2o670j8
|
Will the pope announce the second coming of Jesus Christ within the next 30 days ?
|
The second coming of Jesus Christ is a central belief in Christianity, prophesied in the Bible to signify the end of the world and the final judgment. Christians believe that Jesus will return to Earth to fulfill God's plan for humanity.
The pope, as the head of the Roman Catholic Church, wields significant spiritual influence and authority. An announcement from the pope regarding the imminent return of Jesus would have enormous religious, social, and global implications.
This question prompts to consider several factors: the theological foundations of Christian eschatology, the historical context of papal declarations, and the current state of world affairs challenging us to think about how such an announcement would be received by the global community, both within and outside the Christian faith. Would people react with belief, skepticism, or indifference? How would governments, other religious leaders, and media respond?
The scenario also raises questions about the role of the pope in interpreting and conveying divine messages. Historically, the Catholic Church has been cautious about making definitive statements regarding prophetic events, but why couldn't an imam announce it for example ?!. Therefore, contemplating this question encourages a deeper following and observation of religious prophecy in a stumbled modern world, the responsibilities of religious leaders, and the potential impact of such a momentous declaration on modern society.
|
2024-06-18T08:14:59
|
2024-07-18T14:59:00
|
2024-07-21T04:25:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qg1zzcqj1u
|
Will Real Madrid beat Barcelona? | El Clásico
|
October 26, 2024 match
Team A win = YES
Team B win = NO
Draw = NO
Cancelled = NO
Postponed / Delayed = Adjusted close date
|
2024-06-18T07:29:42
|
2024-10-26T20:59:00
|
2024-10-26T21:25:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-94r0v4azuu
|
Euro 2024 - will Kylian Mbappe score a goal?
|
Kylian Mbappe was the top goalscorer at the most recent World Cup. He may well become the top World Cup goalscorer of all time - he's currently in equal 6th place with Pele on 12 goals and at 25 he's got a lot of years left in him.
But he has somehow never scored in the Euros. He didn't score in yesterday's 1-0 win over Austria and his broken nose means that he may not be playing at 100% for the rest of the tournament and he may even miss games:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/article/2024/jun/17/hes-not-doing-well-deschamps-confirms-kylian-mbappe-has-broken-nose
Will Mbappe score a goal during this tournament?
Any goal including a penalty in normal time or extra time will count, but scoring a penalty during a penalty shoot-out will not.
|
2024-06-18T01:58:07
|
2024-06-25T10:55:11
|
2024-06-25T10:55:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-du2tane7kn
|
Will 3 Big AI Companies lose 10% of market cap in a single day (AI Bubble Pop) by 2025?
|
AI is hyped, and AI has intrinsic value.
If three companies from:
Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Tesla,
ASML, TSMC, or Intel.
have a single day drop in share price above 10% of market cap.
Basically, if history rhymes with the dot-com bubble.
See e.g. https://money.cnn.com/2000/10/12/investing/q_bigdrop/
Edit: For clarity, this doesn't need to be the same day for each company.
|
2024-06-18T01:09:30
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-06T14:31:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kuy46mxhg4
|
Is $DJT real?
|
This question will resolve to "Yes" if, there is definitive evidence confirming that Donald J Trump is associated with the DJT token (address HRw8mqK8N3ASKFKJGMJpy4FodwR3GKvCFKPDQNqUNuEP) by June 25, 2024. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
|
2024-06-17T22:23:26
|
2024-06-25T21:59:00
|
2024-07-01T16:02:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ctz6todnzb
|
When all the votes are counted in the UK's general election, will Reform UK poll more votes than the Conservative Party?
|
At the end of the election, when the 650th constituency has declared will Reform UK have more votes than the Conservative Party? This question will resolve as YES, if Reform UK have a higher vote tally than the Conservatives and NO, if the reverse is true
|
2024-06-17T11:03:54
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-05T00:30:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-asr300wjka
|
Will Apple release an Apple Watch powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?
|
Current Apple Watch does not have Apple intelligence.
|
2024-06-17T06:19:08
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-04T06:03:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8n8prosolx
|
Will Apple release a HomePod powered with Apple Intelligence before the end of 2024?
|
Current HomePod does not have Apple intelligence.
|
2024-06-17T04:06:24
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-04T06:03:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qi9bcqyjft
|
Will Israel hold elections before 7th October 2024?
|
Anti-government protesters are demanding that Benjamin Netanyahu calls an election before 7th October - the anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has dissolved his war cabinet following the resignation of Benny Gantz:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2024/jun/17/middle-east-crisis-live-biden-adviser-israel-hezbollah-clashes-gaza-netanyahu
Will the protesters get what they are asking for?
If the next general election to elect members to the Knesset is called for any date up to 6th October, this market will resolve to YES.
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep
|
2024-06-17T02:31:53
|
2024-10-06T15:59:00
|
2024-10-07T07:18:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qzgibjhxpg
|
Will The Guardian issue a correction to its EA/Manifest/FTX article?
|
The Guardian piece here:
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/article/2024/jun/16/sam-bankman-fried-ftx-eugenics-scientific-racism
Reportedly contains many factual errors:
See https://x.com/ohabryka/status/1802563541633024280?t=8IhUv03x6PKq_r5MwLbPuA&s=19
Resolves yes if one or more of these are corrected (either by stealth edit, deleting the article or editors note) by the end of July.
|
2024-06-17T00:45:22
|
2024-06-17T20:57:31
|
2024-06-17T20:57:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rxzqh20bxj
|
NOAA - Will October 2024 be the hottest October on record? (Global)
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month. A tie will resolve “no”.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-06-16T18:23:43
|
2024-11-13T08:27:12
|
2024-11-13T08:27:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fdup4z2017
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 150 days of being attacked by them?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-16T14:43:16
|
2024-09-15T04:29:10
|
2024-09-15T04:29:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1lpjdga097
|
Initiative 2117: Will Washington Repeal the “Cap and Trade” Program?
|
On November 5th, 2024, a vote is slated to occur in the US state of Washington on Initiative 2117: Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (https://src.wastateleg.org/initiative-2117-stop-hidden-gas-tax/), which if passed would ban the state's “cap and trade” program and repeal the Climate Commitment Act (2021).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Initiative 2117 on the November 5, 2024 Washington ballot passes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If for any reason a vote on Initiative 2117 does not occur by November 15, 2024, at 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of Washington, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
|
2024-06-16T14:40:29
|
2024-11-15T20:59:00
|
2024-11-18T07:25:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mjcq7wtphk
|
Will Donald Trump make a tweet on Twitter/X before the USA's 2024 election voting begins?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-15T22:51:03
|
2024-08-12T08:27:59
|
2024-08-12T08:27:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lv41nqg73m
|
Will "rock paper scissors poker" appear on Google Trends in 2024?
|
Rock paper scissors poker is a poker variant with simultaneous betting we devised during Manifest. Read the rules here. The game is simpler, faster-paced, and more social than regular poker—the pickleball to hold-em's tennis. I think it could catch on...
If I search for the phrase "rock paper scissors poker" on Google Trends now it says "your search doesn't have enough data to show here". Will this cease being true due to sufficient data at any point during 2024?
Update: There must be data for each of the Google Trends subsections, "Interest over time", "Interest by region", "Related topics", and "Related queries" when "Past 30 days" is selected. See this query.
|
2024-06-15T21:21:03
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:40:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0kayd0v535
|
Will "House of the Dragon" S2E1 ("A Son for a Son") be rated >8.7 on IMDB, 2 days after release? (S1 premiere = 8.7)
|
Resolution
"House of the Dragon" S2E1 ("A Son for a Son") IMDB link
This market resolves based on the score displayed two days after release (June 18th), at noon PT.
This market closes when the episode premieres.
I will use the precision listed by IMDD (typically a single decimal), and this is a strict inequality.
Context
Here are the current IMDB ratings for HotD S1:
E1: 8.7
E2: 8.3
E3: 8.7
E4: 8.4
E5: 8.5
E6: 8.0
E7: 9.1
E8: 9.3
E9: 8.7
E10: 9.2
|
2024-06-15T07:55:29
|
2024-06-17T04:43:45
|
2024-06-18T12:31:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fowtbqt3a6
|
Will Trump's VP pick be one of the current top 3? (Burgum, Rubio, Vance)
|
Resolves YES if Trump's vice presidential running mate is officially announced as one of the following three people:
Doug Burgum (ND Governor)
Marco Rubio (Florida Senator)
J.D. Vance (Ohio Senator)
These are widely considered the top contenders as of today (mid-June). Context: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/briefing/donald-trump-vice-president-pick.html
Otherwise resolves NO (that includes if Trump drops out before selecting a running mate, for example).
Related:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Stralor/who-will-be-the-republican-nominee-8a36dedc6445)
|
2024-06-15T07:23:55
|
2024-07-15T14:40:46
|
2024-07-15T14:40:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t22tvwu40b
|
Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 5 of the NBA finals on Monday, June 17?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-15T06:01:02
|
2024-06-17T20:02:51
|
2024-06-17T20:02:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8rcs13fpv
|
Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) earn a grandmaster norm in 2024?
|
GM norm requires achieving 2600+ performance rating in a classical tournament. More info here: https://chessgoals.com/how-to-get-a-grandmaster-norm/
Levy was close to getting the norm at the just concluded Madrid Chess Festival, but he lost in his second to last game and only reached performance rating of
2531. He recently announced he will resume his quest to become a GM (where he needs 3 GM norms), so he will play more tournaments like this in the future. Can he make a first step on his quest to become a GM in 2024?
[tweet]
|
2024-06-15T04:54:56
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:32:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7m2nnucz6n
|
Will London reach 35°C or higher anytime this year?
|
As shown via here (Max Temperature via LONDON CITY AIRPORT STATION)
https://www.wunderground.com/history/monthly/gb/london/EGLC/date/2024-6
|
2024-06-15T03:05:46
|
2024-06-30T15:59:00
|
2024-11-19T15:01:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9wzckc1x4j
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 6,000,000 votes?
|
Two weeks ago, Nigel Farage returned as leader of Reform UK and said that his party would win over 4 million votes. This seemed like a very bold claim, but Manifold's predictors think that there's a good chance he's right:
@/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot
Now Farage has upped the ante and said that Reform UK will win more than 6 million votes!
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/14/reform-leader-nigel-farage-says-he-is-now-leader-of-the-opposition
Will he be proven right? Will there be more than 6,000,000 votes for Reform UK candidates?
|
2024-06-15T01:01:48
|
2024-07-06T02:39:10
|
2024-07-06T02:39:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kna87h3ldi
|
Will Biden be nominated via virtual roll call?
|
Resolves YES if Joe Biden is nominated via virtual roll call before the DNC convention (currently scheduled for August 19).
Resolves NO if someone else is nominated or if Joe Biden is nominated during the DNC convention.
|
2024-06-14T22:31:34
|
2024-07-21T14:27:54
|
2024-07-21T14:27:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a8oeclanxb
|
Will TRUMP go on the DWARKESH PODCAST before the election in 2024
|
Closes on the election in November 2024
|
2024-06-14T13:06:14
|
2024-11-04T23:59:00
|
2024-11-05T10:20:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x87dyzt44a
|
Will GothamChess (Levy Rozman) win his last game at Madrid Festival on Saturday?
|
He cannot get a GM norm anymore after losing last game. Can he at least finish with a win?
He has white pieces vs FM Daniel Tabuenca Mendataurigoitia (2355).
|
2024-06-14T11:44:40
|
2024-06-15T03:46:53
|
2024-06-15T03:46:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ofxi6ppvn
|
Will RFK Jr. finish second in any state in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
Will RFK Jr. receive the second-highest number of votes in any US state (or DC) in the 2024 general election?
A recent Utah poll shows RFK Jr. tied with Biden for second place
|
2024-06-14T10:45:54
|
2024-11-06T08:54:10
|
2024-11-06T08:54:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b6h3ow8oj9
|
Will Deadpool 3 achieve 9.0+ score on imdb.com?
|
Will “Deadpool and Wolverine” have an IMDb rating of 9 or higher on Feb. 1, 2025?
|
2024-06-14T09:08:36
|
2025-02-01T20:59:00
|
2025-02-14T14:08:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pf6yycx4mp
|
Will Robert F Kennedy Jr. Get a Higher % of Votes in Utah than The Democratic Presidential Candidate?
|
recently polling has shown Kennedy is tying Biden in polling
<https://x.com/RobertKennedyJr/status/1801640774049964515>
Resolves YES if the final tally shows RFK getting more votes than Biden in Utah for the 2024 elections. Resolves NO if otherwise.
If the Biden swaps out for another Democratic candidate, they will be used in proxy
Biden has dropped out so it is now whoever gets Nominated for the Democratic Party.
basically, this is, aside from Republican party, who is coming in higher place (democrat party or RFK Jr himself)
(If in some crazy turn of events, RFK Jr leads democrats, this resolves YES, since they believe RFK Jr is the most popular candidate to beat trump)
|
2024-06-14T08:52:53
|
2024-08-23T21:39:28
|
2024-08-23T21:39:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ckza4h48k3
|
Will X (FKA Twitter) reverse their Private Like policy by end of 2024?
|
Resolution criteria
Yes - Before the end of the year, Likes are made public again - reverting back to how they were.
No - Before the end of the year, Likes remain private or visibility is expanded to a select choice. Any policy change that doesn't effectively revert this change will resolve to no.
|
2024-06-14T06:29:36
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T01:59:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zebcm4fq2b
|
Will another Israeli minister resign from the government before 2025?
|
Since the start of war 4 ministers resigned, 3 of them after joining a "unity government" at the start of war.
This will resolve to YES if until January 1st 2025 another minister will send an official resignation letter to the prime minister, and it will be announced on a verified minister account or in a major news publication. Note that if Netanayahu resigns it will resolve to NO as he is not technically a minister.
This will resolve to YES even if the minister returns to his position before the end of the poll.
Ministers that resigned since the start of the war:
Galit Distel-Atbaryan
Benny Gantz
Gadi Eisenkot
Hili Tropper
|
2024-06-14T04:58:23
|
2024-12-31T22:40:34
|
2024-12-31T22:40:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0f4hks70hy
|
Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks in Game 4 of the NBA finals today?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-14T03:34:09
|
2024-06-15T05:57:13
|
2024-06-15T05:57:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sdknfm4imk
|
Will Argentina win Copa America 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-13T21:21:48
|
2024-07-14T20:59:00
|
2024-07-14T21:26:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rmg7s4fun7
|
Will Idaho take steps to preserve PornHub access before June 27?
|
Background
[image]Idaho created a law that requires adult websites to verify the age of their users in an effort to stop children from accessing online pornography. PornHub has opted to restrict access rather then comply with the age verification law.
Will the Idaho government take any emergency action to prevent the law from enacting before June 27th?
Market Resolution
Market will resolve YES if any branch of the Idaho government (executive, legislative, or judicial) prevents the age identification law from being enacted (eg, emergency stay) before June 27th
Market will resolve NO if any branch of the Idaho government (executive, legislative, or judicial) fails to prevent the age identification law from being enacted (eg, emergency stay) before June 27th
|
2024-06-13T20:16:16
|
2024-06-27T23:59:00
|
2024-06-28T16:46:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gwzargffmo
|
Will Taylor Swift give a speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention?
|
A speech is one minute or more of consecutive speaking time, where singing does not count as speaking.
|
2024-06-13T17:55:47
|
2024-08-22T23:06:46
|
2024-08-22T23:06:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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