id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-08qYcxsKdypSt9pdiJI8 | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 WDC && RBR lose the WCC? | Only if Max Verstappen wins the 2024 World Drivers Championship and Red Bull comes in 2nd or below in the World Constructor Championship will this resolve to YES. If Max loses the WDC or RBR wins the WCC this will resolve NO.
I will not participate in this market myself. | 2024-06-13T08:59:09 | 2024-12-01T10:13:10 | 2024-12-01T10:13:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gbZVih4Lz9h7zPO4p6Uv | Will Elon Musk rescue the Starliner astronauts from the International Space Station? | The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing "systems checks" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted date.
This market will resolve to YES if an additional unplanned Crew Dragon... | 2024-06-13T06:03:55 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:30:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2N0pMWAZWaF1Z99P4Wax | Is a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico? (June 2024) | Beginning June 12, 2024, the NHC tracked an area of low pressure (archived) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. If this particular disturbance strengthens and forms a named system (such as Tropical Storm Alberto), the market resolves YES. Resolves NO if the disturbance dissipates before that point. | 2024-06-12T22:53:38 | 2024-06-19T15:44:41 | 2024-06-19T15:44:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ | Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut? | Following an iffy docking at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth.... | 2024-06-12T21:18:33 | 2024-09-07T03:12:09 | 2024-09-07T03:12:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9R6eKGL5zrtggwQjFz5r | Will two or more hurricanes enter as or strengthen to Cat 5 in the Gulf of Mexico by Jan.2025? | -does not need to make landfall as a category 5
-i will not bet in this market
[image] | 2024-06-12T19:44:21 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-13T06:32:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J123mptTDyIPuc4WVzSa | Will somebody die in space today? | There are reports that some kind of accident has happened or is happening on the ISS. It might have resulted in partial decompression. Will it lead in anyone dying? (If anyone dies in space for any other reason today, it will also count.)
For the context, so far in the history of spaceflight nobody has died while in o... | 2024-06-12T16:37:42 | 2024-06-13T23:59:00 | 2024-06-14T06:50:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p3aXpkCPch0szBfO8erz | Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement? | The "SB-1047 Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act" is scheduled to be voted on by the California General Assembly in August 2024, and if passed should be signed or vetoed by the governor before the end of September.
The bill contains a requirement for the publishers of large AI mo... | 2024-06-12T15:46:11 | 2024-09-30T06:51:57 | 2024-09-30T06:51:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f58BQp8dIDV2viabSKSb | Will there be a mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities in the US in 2024? | For the purpose of this market, a “mass shooting” is defined as an event involving the intentional use of firearms to harm multiple individuals, leading to at least 20 victims who are killed in the incident. The count of fatalities will exclude the shooter(s) involved in the attack.
The event must be confirmed by cred... | 2024-06-12T14:40:13 | 2024-12-31T12:59:00 | 2024-12-31T13:30:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha | Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational? | He's been playing exceptionally well!
Resolves YES if Rozman gets a GM norm out of the tournament, and NO if he does not.
Norms are high-level performance benchmarks in tournaments that are part of the requirements to achieve the GM title. Each norm typically requires the player to perform at a GM level over a serie... | 2024-06-12T12:44:08 | 2024-06-14T11:33:26 | 2024-06-14T11:33:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tBGcZLmjl88GIfTj0zzm | Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024? | Criterion for “invasion” in this market is a military action involving the crossing over into Lebanese territory of either:
a. 5000 Israeli troops,
b. 7 battalions or
c. 2 brigades | 2024-06-12T11:08:49 | 2024-08-31T20:59:00 | 2024-09-01T01:16:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bMvr53Xp3QrgpgnLytsn | Will GRRM announce Winds of Winter as being finished in August 2024? | Book doesn’t have to be released in August, but either an announcement of having finished writing the book or a publication date chosen by end of August.
Personally, I think GRRM will announce the publication at / shortly after WorldCon. | 2024-06-12T07:49:55 | 2024-09-01T00:02:14 | 2024-09-01T00:02:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP | Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024? | ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc
This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of GPT4 or Claude Opus solving at least 50% of the ARC questions in 2024.
(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which re... | 2024-06-12T05:26:17 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:19:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mnzianwar0tx6INCiCvA | Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve at least 50% of the tasks | Will any team on the leaderboard of the ARC Kaggle Challenge solve at least 50% of the tasks by the end of the contest without being disqualified?
Details:
Challenge Overview: ARC is hosting a Kaggle Challenge with a grand prize of $1,000,000 for solving more than 85% of the problems.
Current Performance: The best... | 2024-06-12T04:19:15 | 2024-11-04T14:59:00 | 2024-11-04T22:24:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn | Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024? | This market will close whenever GRRM or his publisher announces the completion of Winds of Winter, or September 2024, whichever comes first. | 2024-06-11T19:32:23 | 2024-09-01T22:59:00 | 2024-09-04T18:18:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L6wVzmSJO9MOwJkMGPoE | [Polymarket] National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election? | From CNN:
Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote
After initial projections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Renaissance, which scraped into second place on 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Soc... | 2024-06-11T16:27:56 | 2024-06-29T23:59:00 | 2024-07-08T08:43:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7SGg5yVBu8tl1APUphQq | Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College? | Based on the definition from 538: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.
The election is a landslide if the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes. I will ignore faithless electors.
As of June 11th, the current 538 prediction is 33%:
Biden wins an Electoral College ... | 2024-06-11T15:13:09 | 2024-11-05T22:15:47 | 2024-11-05T22:16:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OLa9z6uZvjJQA44I0cos | Will Hunter Biden be pardoned by Joe Biden or any other individual before January 21, 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-11T15:12:00 | 2024-12-01T17:28:23 | 2024-12-01T17:28:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FVztDTrOy3BSetTT9PH6 | Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Grants Pass, overturning precedent, in regards to homeless encampments? | SCOTUS is expected to rule "this month" (before the end of June) in the Grants Pass case.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/grants-pass-challenges-9th-circuit-ruling-on-camping-ban-before-supreme-court
[image]A ruling in favor of Grants Pass would overturn 9th circuit precent, allowing municipalities to evict homeless ... | 2024-06-11T14:25:54 | 2024-06-28T07:26:03 | 2024-06-28T07:26:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MDUZyFlHOCiAA3E7ITiI | Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination? | In 1992, Congress passed the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act, which mandated that materials related to John F. Kennedy’s killing be housed in a single collection in the National Archives and Records Administration and that all records be publicly disclosed by 2017
Presidents Donald Trum... | 2024-06-11T13:56:37 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-03T05:47:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9ln3uPEbleLkjwQ5HR4b | Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025? | Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence. | 2024-06-11T12:42:22 | 2024-12-01T17:00:40 | 2024-12-01T17:00:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi | Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://arcprize.org/competition\n>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set. As judged by Chollet et al.\n\n2025 version: https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1" | 2024-06-11T12:16:03 | 2024-12-03T20:59:00 | 2024-12-06T13:28:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NOeu4K7Iwmb3STSJFkii | Will Hunter Biden serve any prison time for any of the 3 charges he was found guilty for? | Resolves YES if he serves ANY amount of prison time on any of the 3 charges he was found guilty on.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/hunter-biden-trial-06-11-24/index.html | 2024-06-11T11:50:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:52:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aQf5flyFgFPGiiExUkJm | Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st? | Resolves based on the main 2024 US Presidential Election Polymarket:
[image]I'll resolve based on the price graph which shows what the price for YES shares was each past day. I'll resolve based on what is displayed to me, in PST. This is just based on the graph for YES price, not the NO price.
In any ambiguous situa... | 2024-06-11T09:31:05 | 2024-06-30T23:59:00 | 2024-07-01T10:41:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-faxDRxp63EMtUP4yEtum | If Joe Biden is not reelected will he pardon Hunter Biden before leaving office? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-11T08:50:24 | 2024-12-01T23:58:25 | 2024-12-01T23:58:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5RZXVh0ut9EKBvvS8yeY | Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden? | Resolves Yes if Hunter Biden is pardoned or has his sentence commuted by the end of Joe Biden’s current term (1/20/25). | 2024-06-11T08:38:52 | 2024-12-01T17:25:22 | 2024-12-01T17:25:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M | Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)? | Volt managed to get 2.6% of the (German) votes in the EU parliament elections (2024). In the election of the Bundestag, there is a 5% hurdle. Therefore, the party needs to gain more voter share to have seats and be part of the Bundestag.
Feel free to ask for clarification in the comments.
(https://manifold.markets/em... | 2024-06-11T07:07:27 | 2025-02-23T23:42:57 | 2025-02-23T23:42:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fr9yLCR6hd6KRHcWTEv2 | Will Keith Gill's (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) Jun 21 2024 $20 call options expire worthless? | [image]Keith Gill has shared screen shots of $20 call options he has purchased that expire on June 21, 2024. If GME closes below $20 this question resolves "YES", if GME closes equal or above $20 this question resolves NO. It does not matter if Keith owns the options contract. The price will determine outcome. | 2024-06-10T18:37:08 | 2024-06-21T16:27:30 | 2024-06-21T16:27:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xSM7TOCOAg4uqRiGefxu | Young Thug free in 2024? | The new drama around the Young Thug court proceedings is very funny.
https://twitter.com/ThuggerDaily/status/1800225238904684831
Will the court allow Young Thug to be a free man before Jan 1, 2025?
Probation counts as being free. House arrest does not. | 2024-06-10T17:34:29 | 2024-11-01T07:52:41 | 2024-11-01T07:52:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-geU7hPlpstsPVONK7ASJ | Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11? | https://www.the-sun.com/sport/11582520/isis-terror-attack-threat-to-paris-olympics/
"ISLAMIC terror outfit ISIS has threatened chilling attacks on the upcoming Paris Olympics in an appalling poster message.
The death cult posted a propaganda image showing one of its terrorists seemingly flying an "armed drone" to att... | 2024-06-10T17:15:36 | 2024-08-12T20:20:26 | 2024-08-12T20:20:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ib0i8TCxfv5k9j0XwxlJ | Will OpenAI roll out the new 4o voice mode within the next 2 weeks? | Resolves yes if they start shipping the voice mode from the GPT-4o presentation to the first users within the next 2 weeks.
Resolves no if we still don’t see anybody testing/using it outside of OpenAI.
| 2024-06-10T14:58:44 | 2024-06-24T14:59:00 | 2024-06-24T15:16:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ft3YtoUBKrj3wjcoKEFY | Will SpaceX catch a Booster with Mechazilla in 2024? | If a booster gets successfully caught from Mechazilla in 2024 this market resolves YES | 2024-06-10T14:20:27 | 2024-10-19T11:03:20 | 2024-10-19T11:03:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gECfwLt1VthGPuRZ3KVw | Will Apple release the iPhone 16 before August | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-10T11:51:15 | 2024-08-01T21:59:00 | 2024-08-04T12:01:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cW3myaGrHHp8CFoIKbfS | Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%? | Voter turnout is a key indicator of public engagement and interest in the electoral process. In recent U.S. presidential elections, voter turnout has varied significantly, with a notable increase in 2020 where turnout reached about 66.8%, the highest in over a century. Factors influencing turnout include voter registra... | 2024-06-10T09:00:27 | 2024-12-31T20:07:00 | 2025-01-01T15:01:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1TORQUIGJjyFVdq9oYre | Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg (Russia's major northern city) during 2024? | 1) Skirmishes with the use of all types of heavy automatic weapons between organized parties, as well as their capture of a city without fighting, are considered hostilities. for example, Prigozhin's mutiny in Rostov would be considered hostilities, as there is evidence of the capture of the city, as well as evidence o... | 2024-06-10T06:47:23 | 2024-12-31T13:26:01 | 2024-12-31T13:26:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ghQh39FLVkEvCdGowGp | Will Joe Biden speak first at the debate on June 27? | if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolves to N/A
If Biden speaks first (before Trump speaks) this market resolves to yes | 2024-06-10T05:52:27 | 2024-06-28T02:23:52 | 2024-06-28T02:23:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5UV2Q6JKh70yP0uM6OUk | Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%? | The 2019 European Elections saw the Conservatives poll 9% of the vote, considered the bedrock of Conservative support. Some recent election polls have put them as low as 16% | 2024-06-10T02:14:29 | 2024-07-03T15:59:00 | 2024-07-05T00:30:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T0XibwWms8dqDg9yCE2L | [French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties) | Resolves Yes if the RN (Rassemblement National) party wins enough seats to have an absolute majority in the Assemblée national in the upcoming 2024 snap legislative election, either alone or as part of a coalition/electoral union with other party. An union will count if they present one candidate per seat race from the... | 2024-06-09T16:39:34 | 2024-07-05T14:59:00 | 2024-07-08T01:24:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o | Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies? | Olympic ceremonies have often featured technologies in ways that have never been used at major events. Augmented reality, drone swarms, and stadium floor projections are examples of breakthrough ways that technology was used artistically. Will AI be featured in a similar role this July?
This market will resolve to Y... | 2024-06-09T16:00:56 | 2024-07-26T20:59:00 | 2024-07-28T08:47:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QJaRqnzYAIAMXj1UlxoR | Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy? | Nate Silver thinks he should.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion. | 2024-06-09T14:53:38 | 2024-07-31T23:59:00 | 2024-08-01T00:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-60R6kt9Yk541qbBPavSX | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of September 6th? | Using Israel time
Both sides must agree | 2024-06-09T12:12:45 | 2024-09-06T23:59:00 | 2024-09-07T03:40:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qqZXGbHsVgvhtABIgNiU | Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months? | Resolves YES if a living hostage crosses into Israel as a result of an operation by Israeli security forces.
-------------
Israel estimates there are less than 100 living hostages out of the 120 kidnapped people who are still in Gaza.
After 4 hostages were rescued yesteday on the 8th of June, a Hamas spokesperson sa... | 2024-06-09T11:20:21 | 2024-08-27T07:54:53 | 2024-08-27T07:54:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qjhg3K40PMPzR7mC1gu1 | UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak announce his resignation before election day? | It would be an understatement to say that Rishi Sunak’s election campaign is going badly.
Rumours are now swirling on Twitter and other disreputable sources that he is going to resign. Normally, it would seem completely insane for anyone to suggest that a Prime Minister might resign during a general election campaign,... | 2024-06-09T00:03:49 | 2024-07-03T15:59:00 | 2024-07-03T23:31:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NTjr8ptihEhvnRhFLDtM | Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-08T03:21:15 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-03T13:39:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3 | Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024? | Davidad, Programme Director at the UK's Advanced Research Invention Agency has publicly stated on his Twitter that he expects LLM 'jailbreaks' to be a solved problem by the end of 2024.
[image]https://x.com/davidad/status/1799261940600254649
He cites Zou et al's new paper on short circuiting as pushing him over the e... | 2024-06-07T19:58:38 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T18:54:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92 | Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5? | Will Spacex change the external shape of any of Starship's flaps in a way that is obvious?
Resolves No if they reinforce them internally and add more thermal protection, or make minor modifications. | 2024-06-07T13:11:19 | 2024-10-13T05:58:47 | 2024-10-13T05:58:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LxceRCDNAljAVrybmuph | Will GameStop ($GME) hit $70 during trading on Friday June 7th? | It's being reported that Roaring Kitty's options position will be worth $1B if the stock hits $70. He has a livestream scheduled for Noon eastern.
It closed Thursday at $46.55 but traded up to $65 after hours.
Will the stock hit a high mark of $70 during trading hours Friday?
https://deepnewz.com/economics/gamestop-... | 2024-06-06T19:20:43 | 2024-06-07T20:37:56 | 2024-06-07T20:37:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nzwNOr2eaZAuolTlJj91 | Will the USA advance to the Super 8s round of the 2024 Twenty20 T20 World Cup? | They are currently in first place in Group A with two wins from two games. They need to finish in the top two (out of five) in order to qualify for the knockout round. | 2024-06-06T16:52:15 | 2024-06-14T10:36:41 | 2024-06-14T10:36:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9gdudaDVjwlSQDGgawJ3 | Will GME reach $100 before the end of June 2024 | Will GameStop stock price reach $100 usd before the end of June 2024? | 2024-06-06T16:24:50 | 2024-06-28T16:08:56 | 2024-06-28T16:08:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TQtbOp0LqYL1lEztQjXj | UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats? | Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024. | 2024-06-06T15:52:25 | 2024-07-04T15:59:00 | 2024-07-04T19:30:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4AqN3rOEJE37BoNML2vC | Will GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024 | Market resolves to YES if GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024
*Includes pre and after hours trading
Closed at $46.55 on June 6th. | 2024-06-06T14:25:23 | 2024-06-28T16:08:34 | 2024-06-28T16:08:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XlvmAmgNj6mHJN4qsp2G | Will Taylor Swift announce either Debut (Taylor's Version) or Reputation (Taylor's Version) during one of her UK shows? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-06T13:48:43 | 2024-08-20T14:34:23 | 2024-08-20T14:34:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rl9Ml46y0qvnMqOryIkZ | Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry? | Resolves YES if Starship descends through 25km altitude without exploding, otherwise NO.
(Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry)
"Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself... | 2024-06-06T07:09:03 | 2024-10-13T06:29:27 | 2024-10-13T06:29:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dVzTwJWK5U7fclT7XChz | Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems? | The Boeing Starliner, which has been plauged with failures since its inception, had two additional helium leaks occur during the evening of June 5, hours after launch into orbit. Engineers spent the night troubleshooting the issue, and were only able to determine that the vehicle was "safe for now."
This market will r... | 2024-06-06T04:25:48 | 2024-06-14T07:57:02 | 2024-06-14T07:57:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading] | Resolves identically to:
@/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
But:
Remains open during the flight for live trading.
Has only Basic subsidy. | 2024-06-06T03:52:48 | 2024-06-06T06:57:28 | 2024-06-06T06:57:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-62cWs0IOTjXhxxAgyWY5 | Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024? | The WHO just reported the first-ever laboratory-confirmed case of H5N2, a fatal case from Mexico: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/who-confirms-first-human-case-avian-influenza-ah5n2-mexico-2024-06-05/ | 2024-06-05T16:14:35 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-16T08:54:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BKs8pvqFrwMM6hpbcEuN | Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 120 days of being attacked by them? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-05T12:49:47 | 2024-08-15T13:59:38 | 2024-08-15T13:59:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JoJNFLjh3nlmv2XBC7I3 | [Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? [Mod note: as a MP] | Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24622/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in t... | 2024-06-05T10:32:36 | 2024-07-06T04:00:00 | 2024-07-07T14:04:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SC4ZS48opXMdl0ldkeXb | Will the Playstation 5 Pro, or equivalent, be announced in 2024? | This market resolves to YES if Sony announces publicly and officially the 'pro' version of the Playstation 5 console by the end of 2024.
It will NOT resolve to YES if a Playstation 6 is announced.
The 'pro' version can have any other name as long as it's considered a PS5 upgrade, much like the PS4 Pro.
The market res... | 2024-06-05T03:46:14 | 2024-09-10T14:19:03 | 2024-09-10T14:19:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0X4ZXiYsJmVvjVwviVRj | Will bitcoin end June 30, 2024 over $78000? | End of month California time | 2024-06-05T02:09:38 | 2024-06-30T07:59:00 | 2024-07-03T12:37:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ceVViMOewgc4GXfXApmK | UK General Election 2024 - Will any Tory candidates defect and run for Reform UK? | A feature of the last Parliament was the constant rumours that Conservative Party MPs were going defect to Reform UK. In the end, Lee Anderson was the only one who actually did!
Once again, there have been rumours this week of Conservative candidates defecting to Reform off the back of their big relaunch.
Will either... | 2024-06-05T02:04:31 | 2024-06-09T14:48:13 | 2024-06-09T14:48:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8 | Will Israel launch a war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if
Formal declaration of war on Lebanon or Hezbollah
Announcement or commencement of ground operations into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah
[image][image] | 2024-06-05T00:29:50 | 2024-10-01T14:41:48 | 2024-10-01T14:41:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-piw0YOiRwSpPmEbJHrXf | Will either Biden or Trump die before their respective party conventions end? | August 22 for Biden and July 18th for Trump. | 2024-06-04T17:11:50 | 2024-08-20T19:58:18 | 2024-08-20T19:58:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dDHfnL7yT18fbFN3CfRm | Will Hunter Biden be found guilty for any of the 3 charges in the gun case? | This question resolves YES if he is found guilty for any of the following 3 charges:
Making false statements X 2
Illegal gun possession
Additional charges found or from other cases will not apply to this question, we are only looking at the 3 charges above.
If he is found guilty for 1 or more charges.
https://www... | 2024-06-04T09:46:23 | 2024-06-11T11:51:00 | 2024-06-11T11:51:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gk4gN5eRPxPJGGYliMyC | Will Solana become a top 3 cryptocurrency by market cap before EOY? | According to CoinMarketCap.com, will Solana reach #3?
Currently #5 with a $76.5 billion market cap.
#3 is currently Tether with a market cap of $112.3 billion | 2024-06-04T07:03:54 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:22:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sLYr3tzmoyFG9IfK49vc | [Metaculus] On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24806/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of A... | 2024-06-04T06:31:25 | 2024-06-28T13:00:00 | 2024-06-28T15:21:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p | Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote? | There's lots of reporting on this: https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/3/24170368/elon-musk-tesla-pay-package-shareholder-meeting
And opining: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-29/everyone-wants-elon-musk-s-attention
I've set the close date to be a week after the vote, but I will close it once one of the... | 2024-06-04T06:04:46 | 2024-06-14T08:41:45 | 2024-06-14T08:41:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xluTK5DYPfZI8Ke1KlvC | Will Portugal 🇵🇹 beat Croatia 🇭🇷 on Sat, Jun 8, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽ | 📅 Date: Saturday, June 8, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Portugal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- ... | 2024-06-03T22:53:04 | 2024-06-08T13:47:40 | 2024-06-08T13:47:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5YezCByyU3Pn3vaieURY | Will Florida Panthers beat Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals (Prediction Market) | Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
The market will close at 7pm CST June 24
This market will be reopened if the series is tied and closed again at the start of the tie-breaking game.
Resolves YES or NO .
Hockey games don't tie. Overtime is to the death.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/who-will-win-the-final-... | 2024-06-03T17:39:38 | 2024-06-24T17:00:00 | 2024-06-24T19:57:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW | Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-03T16:03:08 | 2024-11-04T21:17:17 | 2024-11-04T21:17:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M7rnQci8gT1zIPxqFdI0 | Will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) be kicked off the E*Trade platform by Juneteenth? (June 19th) | From the WSJ:
E*Trade is considering telling meme-stock leader Keith Gill he can no longer use its platform after growing concerned about potential stock manipulation around his recent purchases of GameStop options, according to people familiar with the matter.
At E*Trade and its owner Morgan Stanley, that power cre... | 2024-06-03T14:05:22 | 2024-06-19T23:59:00 | 2024-06-20T06:38:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-31O4J52z8IoOF030eRjW | Will Germany 🇩🇪 beat Greece 🇬🇷 on Fri, Jun 7, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽ | 📅 Date: Friday, June 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Germany has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Bot... | 2024-06-03T12:11:45 | 2024-06-07T13:42:18 | 2024-06-07T13:42:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n2DFTVbAmSeanW6qXWtv | Will England beat Iceland on Fri, Jun 7, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽ | 📅 Date: Friday, June 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- England has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Bot... | 2024-06-03T10:21:23 | 2024-06-07T13:40:55 | 2024-06-07T13:40:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iVgiDMUERQbVdcth11pK | Will Trump's sentencing occur before the Republican National Convention? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-03T10:04:54 | 2024-07-14T23:59:00 | 2024-07-16T01:00:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e6RT73qbIfSvPivd5QHL | UK General Election - Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats | Resolution criteria:
YES - Conservatives get less than 100 seats in the next UK GE
NO - Conservatives get more than 100 seats in the next UK GE
Election is scheduled for 04/07/2024 - results come in throughout the night. | 2024-06-03T09:48:37 | 2024-07-06T10:14:28 | 2024-07-06T10:14:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JgtylACtp9Te19fxofC5 | UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 4,000,000 votes? | Nigel Farage today announced that he will be returning to be the leader of Reform UK and that he will be standing as the candidate for Clacton:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/03/nigel-farage-to-stand-for-reform-uk-in-general-election-after-u-turn
He said in his speech that UKIP got 4 million vo... | 2024-06-03T08:31:44 | 2024-07-06T02:39:27 | 2024-07-06T02:39:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LesUhZn88wsOk4KAUuJ7 | [Metaculus] Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates? | Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24020/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-perso... | 2024-06-03T06:26:27 | 2024-11-07T09:00:00 | 2024-11-07T15:31:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-espBHaGHbj32yVbLqLSW | Will Infowars be shut down within 48 hours? | Alex Jones claims that infowars could be shutdown within hours. Is this real, or is it just a fundraising gimmick?
https://www.newsweek.com/alex-jones-says-infowars-could-shut-down-within-hours-1907182 | 2024-06-02T22:27:19 | 2024-06-04T22:27:19 | 2024-06-05T08:03:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JlXRyq4sX907jxWinTSe | Will "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) be the highest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise? (>$426M) | Source: BoxOfficeMojo
According to BoxOfficeMojo, the highest grossing entry in the Bad Boys franchise is "Bad Boys For Life" (2020), with a worldwide gross of $426,505,244.
This market resolves YES if "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) grosses >$426,505,244 within 3 months of release (i.e. September 7th)
I will use th... | 2024-06-02T20:51:39 | 2024-09-07T23:59:00 | 2024-09-10T08:40:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz | Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024? | Roaring Kitty’s recent ‘GME YOLO Update’ Reddit post showed his account with a total value of $210 million. Will he post a screenshot of his account with over $1 billion in 2024?
Edit: Showing account balance during livestream DOES NOT count. Must be a screenshot posted by him (as per usual). | 2024-06-02T20:45:07 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2024-12-31T19:11:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FfBhndVL4L1PzMikm7jz | Politico says that Biden will issue an executive order on immigration by Tuesday June 4. Will Biden do so? | Title: Biden executive action could come as early as Tuesday.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/biden-executive-action-border-tuesday-00161176
If the order is issued on Wednesday morning it does not count for this market. Order must be issued by Tuesday. | 2024-06-02T18:05:56 | 2024-06-04T09:49:19 | 2024-06-04T09:49:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-226F7kyrltPOoycwVE33 | Will a medal-winning athlete hold up a Palestine flag on the podium during the 2024 Olympics? | This market will resolve 'Yes' if a medal-winning athlete, during the official medal ceremony at the 2024 Olympics, visibly holds up a Palestine flag in celebration or solidarity. This includes instances where the flag is displayed prominently and recognizably, such as being waved, draped over the athlete's shoulders, ... | 2024-06-02T14:12:51 | 2024-08-11T15:59:00 | 2024-08-13T11:10:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l5lizalEfMpIYUAqKuHl | Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks by 8 points (or more) in Game 1 of the NBA Finals? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-02T02:51:49 | 2024-06-06T19:49:07 | 2024-06-06T19:49:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XgRaMpytxcTgxCttl5dB | Will Trump be convicted of any more felonies or federal crimes after the New York case, and before Election Day? | The market will resolve Yes if Trump is convicted of any felonies in state court, or any federal crimes after the New York hush money case, and before election day.
Otherwise, it will resolve No. | 2024-06-01T23:10:27 | 2024-11-05T12:45:54 | 2024-11-05T12:45:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6 | Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election? | Trump was convicted in New York on 34 counts.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/rep-dean-phillips-urges-gov-hochul-to-pardon-trump-after-felony-conviction-good
[image]Market will resolve Yes if:
Trump is pardoned or the conviction is overturned, vacated, or otherwise dismissed
if Trump wins an appeal to overturn, stay,... | 2024-06-01T23:08:20 | 2024-09-06T11:07:40 | 2024-09-06T11:07:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL | Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-06-01T20:53:38 | 2024-07-14T13:51:20 | 2024-07-14T13:51:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5vJoPZxMhm0L6EMRlA7j | Will SB 1047 survive this legislative session such that the bill makes it to Governor Newsom’s desk? | Over the course of the next few months, SB 1047 will be going through the California Assembly, and if it survives, will go to the governor’s office in September to be signed or vetoed.
https://safesecureai.org/ | 2024-06-01T19:18:24 | 2024-08-29T11:34:43 | 2024-08-29T11:34:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4 | Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch? | For this to be true, the switch 2 must have a small portable screen and detachable controllers on the left and ride sides (like joycons) and be connected to a TV by a dock visually similar to the switch's dock. | 2024-06-01T14:57:50 | 2025-01-16T08:06:38 | 2025-01-16T08:06:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IkxCZ1KxXUgH2EFy6Pbd | Will GME reach $50 before ether end of June 2024 | GameStop closed on $23.14 on May 31st 2024
*Includes pre-market price in USD
Market resolved to YES since GME crossed $50 after hours on June 6th 2024 | 2024-06-01T13:42:20 | 2024-06-06T14:13:43 | 2024-06-06T14:13:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oyoKbnPVdKGZqCJJD1wO | Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match be rearranged and go ahead in 2024? | 80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson was due to take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July.
However, the fight on that date has been cancelled due to Tyson's medical issues:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/c2xx1vdvjpro
Both "fighters" claim that this is ... | 2024-06-01T06:46:21 | 2024-11-16T04:57:44 | 2024-11-16T04:57:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix | Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration? | This resolves to yes if the blockade begins after 10/31/2024 and before 1/21/2025. | 2024-06-01T06:30:16 | 2025-01-20T20:59:00 | 2025-01-26T04:03:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761 | Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election? | The question resolves YES whenever jury selection starts in any of the mentioned cases (State - Georgia Fulton County, Federal Classified Docs Case or Federal January 6th Case reach trial), and if it still hasn't resolved on November 5 it resolves NO. | 2024-06-01T05:46:22 | 2024-10-28T17:06:54 | 2024-10-28T17:06:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U | Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent? | Resolves if he decides to run, or decides to not run | 2024-05-31T21:05:38 | 2024-07-30T21:55:57 | 2024-07-30T21:55:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o1gxxvnhLsPNswwDZuEO | Will Destiny make it home from Israel alive? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-31T15:10:43 | 2024-06-14T18:30:29 | 2024-06-14T18:30:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq | Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena) | Same rules as my other market: @/Soli/will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is
Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model... | 2024-05-31T13:26:34 | 2024-12-31T10:58:19 | 2024-12-31T10:58:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u0FUpj0LBNgnvcmamFkI | Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in 2024? | [tweet]I think of OpenAI as the infrastructure layer of AI, similar to AWS with the web. I wonder if they would roll out a feature that allows OpenAI users to sign-in using their accounts to other services and apps similar to how sign-in with Google or Facebook works.
@/Soli/will-signin-with-openai-be-announce | 2024-05-31T13:02:43 | 2024-12-31T11:03:44 | 2024-12-31T11:03:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd | Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024? | Third human case was confirmed on May 31st.
https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year
So far all US dairy workers.
Market will resolve Yes based on media reports. To avoid confusion anyone who dies WITH H5N1 Bird Flu *in the United States of America* will count. The death h... | 2024-05-31T10:20:04 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T17:53:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sXzllzL6HNXTngxd1C58 | Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024? | France is expected to deploy troops to Ukraine as soon as next week, in the capacity of "trainers." Nevertheless, these soldiers will clearly have a high bounty on their head by Russia.
This question will resolve YES if it is confirmed a French soldier was killed in Ukraine by Russia before the end of the year, by any... | 2024-05-31T07:27:23 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:44:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tFnhGN6rq3CilielCxaV | Will IDF ground forces (a brigade sized force or larger) enter Southern Lebanon before July 31st. | Will there be a large scale invasion (a brigade sized or larger force) into Lebanese territory before July 31st 2024 | 2024-05-31T06:39:53 | 2024-07-31T17:05:23 | 2024-07-31T17:05:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2YrP8jxfgVlejTo10txZ | Will France reach the semi-finals at UEFA Euro 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-31T02:53:10 | 2024-07-07T13:37:29 | 2024-07-07T13:37:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LBErhBxUxyeIGzAPts46 | Will the first 2-way national presidential poll after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538) | Resolves based on the first two-way poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Two-way polls do not include third party candidates. | 2024-05-31T01:29:37 | 2024-06-01T09:59:00 | 2024-06-01T14:09:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.