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stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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| close_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-08qYcxsKdypSt9pdiJI8
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 WDC && RBR lose the WCC?
|
Only if Max Verstappen wins the 2024 World Drivers Championship and Red Bull comes in 2nd or below in the World Constructor Championship will this resolve to YES. If Max loses the WDC or RBR wins the WCC this will resolve NO.
I will not participate in this market myself.
|
2024-06-13T08:59:09
|
2024-12-01T10:13:10
|
2024-12-01T10:13:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gbZVih4Lz9h7zPO4p6Uv
|
Will Elon Musk rescue the Starliner astronauts from the International Space Station?
|
The Boeing Starliner is currently facing significant problems - 5 engine failures, 5 helium leaks, a water problem, and more. It is undergoing "systems checks" and the mission's return date is now four days later than the originally targeted date.
This market will resolve to YES if an additional unplanned Crew Dragon is sent to the International Space Station to return astronauts to Earth. Extra people can't simply return in an existing "Crew-X" mission, or have more people return in a Soyuz or Dragon that is already docked at the station.
The market will also resolve YES if the Polaris Dawn mission is repurposed or outfitted with additional seats.
If the Starliner capsule lands on Earth with both astronauts onboard, the market will resolve to NO, as will it if the astronauts return to Earth on a previously planned mission.
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - If a Crew Dragon is sent to rescue the astronauts using empty seats rather than a different capsule, the market will resolve to NO. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-06-13T06:03:55
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:30:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2N0pMWAZWaF1Z99P4Wax
|
Is a tropical storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico? (June 2024)
|
Beginning June 12, 2024, the NHC tracked an area of low pressure (archived) in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. If this particular disturbance strengthens and forms a named system (such as Tropical Storm Alberto), the market resolves YES. Resolves NO if the disturbance dissipates before that point.
|
2024-06-12T22:53:38
|
2024-06-19T15:44:41
|
2024-06-19T15:44:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lwTN4mEB9rHSs9OiJLTJ
|
Will Boeing's Starliner return with an astronaut?
|
Following an iffy docking at the International Space Station last week, Boeing managed to deliver a pair of NASA astronauts to the orbital lab. The stressful Starliner saga continues as the crew capsule developed more leaks in its service module. NASA is currently evaluating its ability to return the duo back to Earth.
In an update shared on Monday, NASA revealed that the Starliner teams are assessing the impact that five helium leaks would have on the remainder of the mission. “While Starliner is docked, all the manifolds are closed per normal mission operations preventing helium loss from the tanks,” the space agency wrote.
Source:
https://gizmodo.com/boeing-starliner-spacecraft-fifth-helium-leak-iss-nasa-1851534977
This market resolves yes if the currently docked Starliner returns with an astronaut. It could be any of the people on the ISS onboard. This market resolves NO if it undocks with no astronaut.
FINE PRINT:
If Starliner undocks, a mission critical error happens and they redock, the market is extended.
If it explodes and kills them, still resolves YES.
|
2024-06-12T21:18:33
|
2024-09-07T03:12:09
|
2024-09-07T03:12:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9R6eKGL5zrtggwQjFz5r
|
Will two or more hurricanes enter as or strengthen to Cat 5 in the Gulf of Mexico by Jan.2025?
|
-does not need to make landfall as a category 5
-i will not bet in this market
[image]
|
2024-06-12T19:44:21
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-13T06:32:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J123mptTDyIPuc4WVzSa
|
Will somebody die in space today?
|
There are reports that some kind of accident has happened or is happening on the ISS. It might have resulted in partial decompression. Will it lead in anyone dying? (If anyone dies in space for any other reason today, it will also count.)
For the context, so far in the history of spaceflight nobody has died while in orbit. All space-related accidents happened either during accent or descent. If this accident results in any casualties, this will be a morbid first.
I do not bet on my own questions.
|
2024-06-12T16:37:42
|
2024-06-13T23:59:00
|
2024-06-14T06:50:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p3aXpkCPch0szBfO8erz
|
Will California AI bill (SB-1047) be signed into law with the "kill switch" requirement?
|
The "SB-1047 Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act" is scheduled to be voted on by the California General Assembly in August 2024, and if passed should be signed or vetoed by the governor before the end of September.
The bill contains a requirement for the publishers of large AI models to include a "kill switch": a capability to stop the model completely if it is deemed dangerous. This requirement can be interpreted as basically banning open source distribution of the models.
Will the bill be turned into law before October 1st 2024, including this specific requirement?
Similar more general question: @/ZviMowshowitz/will-california-bill-sb-1047-become
Update from 2024-08-23: There has been some discussion in the comments regarding whether the original text of the bill actually blocked releasing model weights. In any case, I just want to confirm that if the bill doesn't require shutting down the derivative models that you don't control, I'll resolve as NO.
|
2024-06-12T15:46:11
|
2024-09-30T06:51:57
|
2024-09-30T06:51:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f58BQp8dIDV2viabSKSb
|
Will there be a mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities in the US in 2024?
|
For the purpose of this market, a “mass shooting” is defined as an event involving the intentional use of firearms to harm multiple individuals, leading to at least 20 victims who are killed in the incident. The count of fatalities will exclude the shooter(s) involved in the attack.
The event must be confirmed by credible news sources and official law enforcement reports, specifying the number of fatalities.
• Yes: A mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities (excluding the perpetrator(s)) will occur in the US/US territories in 2024.
• No: No mass shooting with more than 20 fatalities (excluding the perpetrator(s)) will occur in the US/US territories in 2024.
Please note that incidents occurring as part of organized crime, gang conflicts, or terrorist attacks are included as long as they meet the specified criteria for fatalities.
|
2024-06-12T14:40:13
|
2024-12-31T12:59:00
|
2024-12-31T13:30:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d4Q6E8x0ZBICV7VS7fha
|
Will Levy Rozman attain a GM norm at the Madrid Invitational?
|
He's been playing exceptionally well!
Resolves YES if Rozman gets a GM norm out of the tournament, and NO if he does not.
Norms are high-level performance benchmarks in tournaments that are part of the requirements to achieve the GM title. Each norm typically requires the player to perform at a GM level over a series of games against other titled players.
If there is a dispute, I will resolve based on FIDE certification of the norm, but in the vast majority of cases I will resolve this market as soon as it is clear one way or another.
[tweet]
|
2024-06-12T12:44:08
|
2024-06-14T11:33:26
|
2024-06-14T11:33:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tBGcZLmjl88GIfTj0zzm
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September 1, 2024?
|
Criterion for “invasion” in this market is a military action involving the crossing over into Lebanese territory of either:
a. 5000 Israeli troops,
b. 7 battalions or
c. 2 brigades
|
2024-06-12T11:08:49
|
2024-08-31T20:59:00
|
2024-09-01T01:16:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bMvr53Xp3QrgpgnLytsn
|
Will GRRM announce Winds of Winter as being finished in August 2024?
|
Book doesn’t have to be released in August, but either an announcement of having finished writing the book or a publication date chosen by end of August.
Personally, I think GRRM will announce the publication at / shortly after WorldCon.
|
2024-06-12T07:49:55
|
2024-09-01T00:02:14
|
2024-09-01T00:02:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-juq8iTXz3YSeCIdP49bP
|
Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?
|
ARC is a general-purpose AI eval designed to test intelligence as opposed to memorization. https://arcprize.org/arc
This market resolves to Yes if there are public demonstrations of GPT4 or Claude Opus solving at least 50% of the ARC questions in 2024.
(note that this is separate from winning the arc price, which requires only using open-source models)
|
2024-06-12T05:26:17
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:19:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mnzianwar0tx6INCiCvA
|
Will the winner of the ARC Kaggle competition solve at least 50% of the tasks
|
Will any team on the leaderboard of the ARC Kaggle Challenge solve at least 50% of the tasks by the end of the contest without being disqualified?
Details:
Challenge Overview: ARC is hosting a Kaggle Challenge with a grand prize of $1,000,000 for solving more than 85% of the problems.
Current Performance: The best model on the ARC prize website currently achieves a 34% success rate, while human performance is around 85%.
Resolution Criteria: This market resolves to YES if, by the end of the contest, any team on the leaderboard that has not been disqualified solves at least 50% of the tasks. Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
For more information, visit:
ARC Prize
Kaggle Challenge Overview
|
2024-06-12T04:19:15
|
2024-11-04T14:59:00
|
2024-11-04T22:24:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VRNwSNHginYIW1H8EUBn
|
Will George R. R. Martin or his publisher announce the completion of Winds of Winter before September 2024?
|
This market will close whenever GRRM or his publisher announces the completion of Winds of Winter, or September 2024, whichever comes first.
|
2024-06-11T19:32:23
|
2024-09-01T22:59:00
|
2024-09-04T18:18:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L6wVzmSJO9MOwJkMGPoE
|
[Polymarket] National Rally coalition wins majority of seats in French Election?
|
From CNN:
Macron gambles on snap election after crushing loss to French far right in EU vote
After initial projections, the far-right National Rally (RN) party came out on top with 31.5% of the vote, more than double the share of Renaissance, which scraped into second place on 15.2% of the vote, just ahead of the Socialists in third with 14.3% of the vote.
In a celebratory speech after the publication of the exit poll, RN leader Jordan Bardella had called on Macron to dissolve the French parliament, calling the gap between the two parties a “stinging disavowal” for the president.
This market is a clone of a question on Polymarket—I include their full resolution criteria below, and I will follow their resolution.
This is a two stage election—this market will close the night before the first stage on June 30th.
Resolution Details
French legislative elections are are scheduled for June 30 and July 7, 2024. Elections for the National Assembly, which is the lower house of France's bicameral parliament, are conducted over 2 rounds of voting. A single representative is chosen for each of 577 constituencies, and the sum total of representatives makes up the National Assembly.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if National Rally (Rassemblement National) or any coalition of which it is part controls a majority of seats in the French National Assembly, specifically 289 or more seats, as a result of the next French Legislative Election.
Only coalitions which are formally announced before the start of the second round of voting (currently scheduled for July 7) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. If National Rally does not enter into a coalition prior to the second round of voting, this market will resolve solely based off the number of seats won by the National Rally party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the French Government, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Related market: @/Ziddletwix/polymarket-which-party-will-win-the-rkn3t1qdg2
@/Ziddletwix/how-many-seats-will-marine-le-pens
Check out the 2024 French Legislative Elections dashboard
|
2024-06-11T16:27:56
|
2024-06-29T23:59:00
|
2024-07-08T08:43:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7SGg5yVBu8tl1APUphQq
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election be a landslide in the Electoral College?
|
Based on the definition from 538: Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election? | FiveThirtyEight.
The election is a landslide if the winning candidate receives at least 350 electoral votes. I will ignore faithless electors.
As of June 11th, the current 538 prediction is 33%:
Biden wins an Electoral College landslide: 23%
Trump wins an Electoral College landslide: 10%
|
2024-06-11T15:13:09
|
2024-11-05T22:15:47
|
2024-11-05T22:16:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OLa9z6uZvjJQA44I0cos
|
Will Hunter Biden be pardoned by Joe Biden or any other individual before January 21, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-11T15:12:00
|
2024-12-01T17:28:23
|
2024-12-01T17:28:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FVztDTrOy3BSetTT9PH6
|
Will the Supreme Court rule in favor of Grants Pass, overturning precedent, in regards to homeless encampments?
|
SCOTUS is expected to rule "this month" (before the end of June) in the Grants Pass case.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/grants-pass-challenges-9th-circuit-ruling-on-camping-ban-before-supreme-court
[image]A ruling in favor of Grants Pass would overturn 9th circuit precent, allowing municipalities to evict homeless encampments without providing alternative housing.
The market will resolve Yes if the court rules in favor of Grants Pass. It will resolve No otherwise (any other ruling, no ruling, or no decision in 2024 -- but decision expected to be reached much sooner).
|
2024-06-11T14:25:54
|
2024-06-28T07:26:03
|
2024-06-28T07:26:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MDUZyFlHOCiAA3E7ITiI
|
Will President Biden release by Dec. 31, 2024, all of the remaining non-public documents related to JFK's assassination?
|
In 1992, Congress passed the President John F. Kennedy Assassination Records Collection Act, which mandated that materials related to John F. Kennedy’s killing be housed in a single collection in the National Archives and Records Administration and that all records be publicly disclosed by 2017
Presidents Donald Trump and Joe Biden each released thousands of documents but withheld some, citing national security, law enforcement and foreign affairs concerns
|
2024-06-11T13:56:37
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T05:47:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ln3uPEbleLkjwQ5HR4b
|
Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?
|
Will resolve to yes if he issues any pardon or commutation of sentence.
|
2024-06-11T12:42:22
|
2024-12-01T17:00:40
|
2024-12-01T17:00:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AxjVvY3ODsYROrnOgANi
|
Will the ARC-AGI Grand Prize be claimed in 2024?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://arcprize.org/competition\n>=85% performance on Chollet's abstraction and reasoning corpus, private set. As judged by Chollet et al.\n\n2025 version: https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1"
|
2024-06-11T12:16:03
|
2024-12-03T20:59:00
|
2024-12-06T13:28:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NOeu4K7Iwmb3STSJFkii
|
Will Hunter Biden serve any prison time for any of the 3 charges he was found guilty for?
|
Resolves YES if he serves ANY amount of prison time on any of the 3 charges he was found guilty on.
https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/hunter-biden-trial-06-11-24/index.html
|
2024-06-11T11:50:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:52:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aQf5flyFgFPGiiExUkJm
|
Will Biden be 40% or higher on Polymarket on any day before July 1st?
|
Resolves based on the main 2024 US Presidential Election Polymarket:
[image]I'll resolve based on the price graph which shows what the price for YES shares was each past day. I'll resolve based on what is displayed to me, in PST. This is just based on the graph for YES price, not the NO price.
In any ambiguous situation where the answer is not clearly YES, such as Polymarket crashing or something, I'll resolve to NO. Market resolves early to YES if the criteria are met, or otherwise remains open until July and then resolves NO.
The last time Biden was at 40% was May 22nd, the last time he was at 39% was June 1st. As of market creation he is at 34%.
|
2024-06-11T09:31:05
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T10:41:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-faxDRxp63EMtUP4yEtum
|
If Joe Biden is not reelected will he pardon Hunter Biden before leaving office?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-11T08:50:24
|
2024-12-01T23:58:25
|
2024-12-01T23:58:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5RZXVh0ut9EKBvvS8yeY
|
Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden?
|
Resolves Yes if Hunter Biden is pardoned or has his sentence commuted by the end of Joe Biden’s current term (1/20/25).
|
2024-06-11T08:38:52
|
2024-12-01T17:25:22
|
2024-12-01T17:25:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T6rN8CL5Zrf7b7HvpD3M
|
Will Volt be elected into the next Bundestag (2025)?
|
Volt managed to get 2.6% of the (German) votes in the EU parliament elections (2024). In the election of the Bundestag, there is a 5% hurdle. Therefore, the party needs to gain more voter share to have seats and be part of the Bundestag.
Feel free to ask for clarification in the comments.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LudwigBald/which-coalition-will-govern-germany)
|
2024-06-11T07:07:27
|
2025-02-23T23:42:57
|
2025-02-23T23:42:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fr9yLCR6hd6KRHcWTEv2
|
Will Keith Gill's (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) Jun 21 2024 $20 call options expire worthless?
|
[image]Keith Gill has shared screen shots of $20 call options he has purchased that expire on June 21, 2024. If GME closes below $20 this question resolves "YES", if GME closes equal or above $20 this question resolves NO. It does not matter if Keith owns the options contract. The price will determine outcome.
|
2024-06-10T18:37:08
|
2024-06-21T16:27:30
|
2024-06-21T16:27:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xSM7TOCOAg4uqRiGefxu
|
Young Thug free in 2024?
|
The new drama around the Young Thug court proceedings is very funny.
https://twitter.com/ThuggerDaily/status/1800225238904684831
Will the court allow Young Thug to be a free man before Jan 1, 2025?
Probation counts as being free. House arrest does not.
|
2024-06-10T17:34:29
|
2024-11-01T07:52:41
|
2024-11-01T07:52:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-geU7hPlpstsPVONK7ASJ
|
Will there be an act of terrorism using drones in Paris during the Olympics between July 24 - August 11?
|
https://www.the-sun.com/sport/11582520/isis-terror-attack-threat-to-paris-olympics/
"ISLAMIC terror outfit ISIS has threatened chilling attacks on the upcoming Paris Olympics in an appalling poster message.
The death cult posted a propaganda image showing one of its terrorists seemingly flying an "armed drone" to attack the iconic Eiffel Tower.
The poster, pushed by ISIS-linked social media channels, was captioned: "Lone wolves' Olympics have begun with the Will of Allah."
The chilling threat vaguely indicates there could be attempts to carry out lone-wolf-style terror attacks across Paris amid the upcoming games."
[image]************************************************************
This market resolves based on acts involving a drone or drones from July 24 - Aug 11 in Paris during the Olympics that are reported as "terrorism", "likely terrorism", "suspected terrorism" or equivalent, as reported by at least two major US news media outlets (see list below) and published by market close on August 12, 2024.
This market applies to acts that occur in areas within the 1929 annexed limits of Paris (105 km2)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geography_of_Paris
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
MAJOR US NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States
ABC News
CBS News
CNN
Fox News Channel
MSNBC
NBC News
The New York Times
USA Today
The Wall Street Journal
The Washington Post
Politico
Bloomberg
Vice News
HBO
HuffPost
TMZ
CNET
NPR
The Hollywood Reporter
Newsweek
The New Yorker
Time
U.S. News & World Report
|
2024-06-10T17:15:36
|
2024-08-12T20:20:26
|
2024-08-12T20:20:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ib0i8TCxfv5k9j0XwxlJ
|
Will OpenAI roll out the new 4o voice mode within the next 2 weeks?
|
Resolves yes if they start shipping the voice mode from the GPT-4o presentation to the first users within the next 2 weeks.
Resolves no if we still don’t see anybody testing/using it outside of OpenAI.
|
2024-06-10T14:58:44
|
2024-06-24T14:59:00
|
2024-06-24T15:16:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ft3YtoUBKrj3wjcoKEFY
|
Will SpaceX catch a Booster with Mechazilla in 2024?
|
If a booster gets successfully caught from Mechazilla in 2024 this market resolves YES
|
2024-06-10T14:20:27
|
2024-10-19T11:03:20
|
2024-10-19T11:03:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gECfwLt1VthGPuRZ3KVw
|
Will Apple release the iPhone 16 before August
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-10T11:51:15
|
2024-08-01T21:59:00
|
2024-08-04T12:01:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cW3myaGrHHp8CFoIKbfS
|
Will voter turnout in the 2024 US Presidential Election exceed 65%?
|
Voter turnout is a key indicator of public engagement and interest in the electoral process. In recent U.S. presidential elections, voter turnout has varied significantly, with a notable increase in 2020 where turnout reached about 66.8%, the highest in over a century. Factors influencing turnout include voter registration laws, campaign strategies, political polarization, and public interest in the candidates and issues at stake.
Details:
Historical Context: The U.S. has seen fluctuating voter turnout rates, with the 2020 election setting a high benchmark.
Factors to Consider: Changes in voter laws, the impact of new voting technologies, social movements, and the popularity of the candidates.
Data Sources: Historical voter turnout data, current voter registration statistics, and polling data.
Update:
This market will resolve in mid-December once the election count is finalised. The source of truth will be according to the figures from https://election.lab.ufl.edu/2024-general-election-turnout/.
If the election count is not finalised by the end of the year, we will resolve anyways to the figure on the source at 23:59 PST 31st December.
|
2024-06-10T09:00:27
|
2024-12-31T20:07:00
|
2025-01-01T15:01:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1TORQUIGJjyFVdq9oYre
|
Will there be fighting in St. Petersburg (Russia's major northern city) during 2024?
|
1) Skirmishes with the use of all types of heavy automatic weapons between organized parties, as well as their capture of a city without fighting, are considered hostilities. for example, Prigozhin's mutiny in Rostov would be considered hostilities, as there is evidence of the capture of the city, as well as evidence of skirmishes with border guards and aviation. The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall is not hostilities because it was directed against civilians, not an organized party to the conflict.
Also, any arson, sabotage, etc. will not be considered hostilities until the guerrillas publish the program of their organization and go with weapons to seize barracks, police, etc.
2) ANY sides. AFU, Ministry of Defense, NATO forces, PMCs, Islamists, communists, even aliens, if they are organized and shooting at each other, it counts.
3) The results are not important, it is the fact of fighting that counts.
4) If there is uncertainty about territory, the official city boundaries at the time the question was posted will be used.
5) If there are possible inaccuracies, ask questions in the comments.
|
2024-06-10T06:47:23
|
2024-12-31T13:26:01
|
2024-12-31T13:26:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ghQh39FLVkEvCdGowGp
|
Will Joe Biden speak first at the debate on June 27?
|
if there is no debate in June 2024 then this market will resolves to N/A
If Biden speaks first (before Trump speaks) this market resolves to yes
|
2024-06-10T05:52:27
|
2024-06-28T02:23:52
|
2024-06-28T02:23:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5UV2Q6JKh70yP0uM6OUk
|
Will the Conservative vote at the 2024 General Election be HIGHER than their 2019 European Election result of 9%?
|
The 2019 European Elections saw the Conservatives poll 9% of the vote, considered the bedrock of Conservative support. Some recent election polls have put them as low as 16%
|
2024-06-10T02:14:29
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-05T00:30:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T0XibwWms8dqDg9yCE2L
|
[French snap legislative 2024] RN has absolute majority (including in electoral union with other parties)
|
Resolves Yes if the RN (Rassemblement National) party wins enough seats to have an absolute majority in the Assemblée national in the upcoming 2024 snap legislative election, either alone or as part of a coalition/electoral union with other party. An union will count if they present one candidate per seat race from the union, rather than one separate candidate for each parties. There's no need to be formal common manifesto or agenda, just the aforementioned kind of electoral pact.
|
2024-06-09T16:39:34
|
2024-07-05T14:59:00
|
2024-07-08T01:24:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o
|
Will an artificial intelligence system play a major artistic role in the 2024 Olympic opening ceremonies?
|
Olympic ceremonies have often featured technologies in ways that have never been used at major events. Augmented reality, drone swarms, and stadium floor projections are examples of breakthrough ways that technology was used artistically. Will AI be featured in a similar role this July?
This market will resolve to YES if an artificial intelligence system is featured in a major artistic role during the 2024 Olympic opening cermonies.
The software must not be a rules-based determinstic system
The software must be actually featured in a noteworthy role during the ceremony, rather than just mentioned in passing or used off-camera
The software must be used artistically, not solely to serve a utilitarian purpose
The software must be LIVE, not in a prerecorded video
The software must be operating on its own, free from human control
Examples of YES resolutions:
Humanoid robots carry the Olympic flag under the Eiffel Tower
A segment is dedicated to French technology, narrated live by Mixtral 8x7B
An LLM serves as the DJ
Self-driving cars roar into the area where the torch will be lit and drive around the athletes
Insufficient examples:
A model produces closed captions for viewers (not artistic)
A self-driving car drives a dignitary to an event (not featured in the ceremony)
A video of robots juggling is played (not live)
A robot operated by a joystick outraces an Olympic champion (not autonomous)
Otherwise, the market resolves to NO. It resolves to N/A if the ceremony is not held by August 31, 2024.
|
2024-06-09T16:00:56
|
2024-07-26T20:59:00
|
2024-07-28T08:47:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QJaRqnzYAIAMXj1UlxoR
|
Will Scott Alexander write a blog post by end of July about threats to American democracy?
|
Nate Silver thinks he should.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2024-06-09T14:53:38
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T00:05:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-60R6kt9Yk541qbBPavSX
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of September 6th?
|
Using Israel time
Both sides must agree
|
2024-06-09T12:12:45
|
2024-09-06T23:59:00
|
2024-09-07T03:40:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qqZXGbHsVgvhtABIgNiU
|
Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?
|
Resolves YES if a living hostage crosses into Israel as a result of an operation by Israeli security forces.
-------------
Israel estimates there are less than 100 living hostages out of the 120 kidnapped people who are still in Gaza.
After 4 hostages were rescued yesteday on the 8th of June, a Hamas spokesperson said measures are being taken to make sure it does not happen again.
|
2024-06-09T11:20:21
|
2024-08-27T07:54:53
|
2024-08-27T07:54:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qjhg3K40PMPzR7mC1gu1
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak announce his resignation before election day?
|
It would be an understatement to say that Rishi Sunak’s election campaign is going badly.
Rumours are now swirling on Twitter and other disreputable sources that he is going to resign. Normally, it would seem completely insane for anyone to suggest that a Prime Minister might resign during a general election campaign, but this isn't exactly a normal election campaign.
Will any of the following happen by 3rd July?
Rishi Sunak publicly announces that he is resigning as Prime Minister or as leader of the Conservative Party, even if this doesn’t take effect until after the election
Rishi Sunak publicly announces that he is retiring from politics or quitting the Conservative Party, even if this doesn’t take effect until after the election
Rishi Sunak is removed or replaced as Prime Minister or leader of the Conservative Party through any mechanism and for any reason including incapacity or death
|
2024-06-09T00:03:49
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-03T23:31:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NTjr8ptihEhvnRhFLDtM
|
Russia detonates nuclear weapon for any purpose before EOY 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-08T03:21:15
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T13:39:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XiV8ghAKYcnPRqLBlaN3
|
Will 'jailbreaks' in large language models be solved in principle by the end of 2024?
|
Davidad, Programme Director at the UK's Advanced Research Invention Agency has publicly stated on his Twitter that he expects LLM 'jailbreaks' to be a solved problem by the end of 2024.
[image]https://x.com/davidad/status/1799261940600254649
He cites Zou et al's new paper on short circuiting as pushing him over the edge on public willingness to state this: https://arxiv.org/abs/2406.04313
However even if jailbreaks are solved in principle this year, I am skeptical AI companies will immediately deploy them due to the relative nondamage of current model glitches and ire drawn by users for overzealous restrictions.
Therefore this market resolves YES if three "Davidad tier epistemic figures" (in my subjective judgment) make public statements that they believe jailbreaks have in fact been solved in principle before the end of this year. Davidad's existing tweet doesn't count because it's a prediction, not a statement of something he believes has already occurred. The public figures should:
Have substantial relevant expertise and follow the literature
Be known for their relatively balanced evaluations of object level events in AI
A list of people whose endorsements I think would qualify:
Myself
Davidad
Quintin Pope
Zvi Mowshowitz
Jan Leike
Jack Clark
Janus (@repligate on Twitter)
Zack M. Davis
Neel Nanda
This list is by no means exclusive however. For the purposes of this question "solved" means something like Davidad's definition of (paraphrased) "would give reasonable certainty you could put a model with dangerous capabilities behind an API and reliably expect those capabilities not to be elicited by users".
|
2024-06-07T19:58:38
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:54:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MlPWxUaVsQmeRbQ2iF92
|
Will the shape of Starship's flaps have obvious visual changes for IFT5?
|
Will Spacex change the external shape of any of Starship's flaps in a way that is obvious?
Resolves No if they reinforce them internally and add more thermal protection, or make minor modifications.
|
2024-06-07T13:11:19
|
2024-10-13T05:58:47
|
2024-10-13T05:58:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LxceRCDNAljAVrybmuph
|
Will GameStop ($GME) hit $70 during trading on Friday June 7th?
|
It's being reported that Roaring Kitty's options position will be worth $1B if the stock hits $70. He has a livestream scheduled for Noon eastern.
It closed Thursday at $46.55 but traded up to $65 after hours.
Will the stock hit a high mark of $70 during trading hours Friday?
https://deepnewz.com/economics/gamestop-shares-surge-47-roaring-kitty-announces-june-7-livestream
[image]
|
2024-06-06T19:20:43
|
2024-06-07T20:37:56
|
2024-06-07T20:37:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nzwNOr2eaZAuolTlJj91
|
Will the USA advance to the Super 8s round of the 2024 Twenty20 T20 World Cup?
|
They are currently in first place in Group A with two wins from two games. They need to finish in the top two (out of five) in order to qualify for the knockout round.
|
2024-06-06T16:52:15
|
2024-06-14T10:36:41
|
2024-06-14T10:36:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9gdudaDVjwlSQDGgawJ3
|
Will GME reach $100 before the end of June 2024
|
Will GameStop stock price reach $100 usd before the end of June 2024?
|
2024-06-06T16:24:50
|
2024-06-28T16:08:56
|
2024-06-28T16:08:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TQtbOp0LqYL1lEztQjXj
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK win at least 2 seats?
|
Resolves YES if Reform UK win 2 or more seats in the General election on 4 July 2024.
|
2024-06-06T15:52:25
|
2024-07-04T15:59:00
|
2024-07-04T19:30:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4AqN3rOEJE37BoNML2vC
|
Will GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024
|
Market resolves to YES if GME reach $75 before the end of June 2024
*Includes pre and after hours trading
Closed at $46.55 on June 6th.
|
2024-06-06T14:25:23
|
2024-06-28T16:08:34
|
2024-06-28T16:08:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XlvmAmgNj6mHJN4qsp2G
|
Will Taylor Swift announce either Debut (Taylor's Version) or Reputation (Taylor's Version) during one of her UK shows?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-06T13:48:43
|
2024-08-20T14:34:23
|
2024-08-20T14:34:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rl9Ml46y0qvnMqOryIkZ
|
Will the 5th Starship test survive reentry?
|
Resolves YES if Starship descends through 25km altitude without exploding, otherwise NO.
(Main heating takes place between 65 and 35 km, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_entry)
"Exploding" here will include any Rapid Unscheduled Disassembly of Starship (the upper stage). If the booster explodes by itself, that does not matter for this question.
If telemetry is lost and it can't be confirmed whether Starship descended through 25km, then it will be presumed that it did not. I.e. YES resolution requires confirmation that it descended through 25km altitude without exploding.
This question is about the next Starship launch with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.
The beginning of the test is defined here as when it lifts off from the pad under its own thrust, however slightly. If Starship explodes on the pad before liftoff, that will not count as the 5th test. If Starship explodes after that point and before reentry, that resolves NO.
Trading on this question may be closed/paused just before or during the flight, at my discretion (with the goal of allowing a bigger subsidy on non-live trading instead of live trading).
|
2024-06-06T07:09:03
|
2024-10-13T06:29:27
|
2024-10-13T06:29:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dVzTwJWK5U7fclT7XChz
|
Will the Boeing Starliner that launched on June 5 encounter major, mission-changing problems?
|
The Boeing Starliner, which has been plauged with failures since its inception, had two additional helium leaks occur during the evening of June 5, hours after launch into orbit. Engineers spent the night troubleshooting the issue, and were only able to determine that the vehicle was "safe for now."
This market will resolve to YES if the capsule returns to Earth earlier or later than scheduled for any reason other than weather or ISS logistics, if the astronauts return to Earth by some other method, or if one of the astronauts is injured or killed by the Starliner. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
|
2024-06-06T04:25:48
|
2024-06-14T07:57:02
|
2024-06-14T07:57:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wRoYhJPVojiWS6tpF7GG
|
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? [non-early-closing market for live trading]
|
Resolves identically to:
@/chrisjbillington/in-starshipsuperheavy-ift4-will-sta
But:
Remains open during the flight for live trading.
Has only Basic subsidy.
|
2024-06-06T03:52:48
|
2024-06-06T06:57:28
|
2024-06-06T06:57:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-62cWs0IOTjXhxxAgyWY5
|
Will there be more than 10 laboratory-confirmed human deaths from H5N2 by the end of 2024?
|
The WHO just reported the first-ever laboratory-confirmed case of H5N2, a fatal case from Mexico: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/who-confirms-first-human-case-avian-influenza-ah5n2-mexico-2024-06-05/
|
2024-06-05T16:14:35
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-16T08:54:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BKs8pvqFrwMM6hpbcEuN
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 120 days of being attacked by them?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-05T12:49:47
|
2024-08-15T13:59:38
|
2024-08-15T13:59:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JoJNFLjh3nlmv2XBC7I3
|
[Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election? [Mod note: as a MP]
|
Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24622/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.
If Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as No.
Resolution should cite credible media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-06-05T10:32:36
|
2024-07-06T04:00:00
|
2024-07-07T14:04:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SC4ZS48opXMdl0ldkeXb
|
Will the Playstation 5 Pro, or equivalent, be announced in 2024?
|
This market resolves to YES if Sony announces publicly and officially the 'pro' version of the Playstation 5 console by the end of 2024.
It will NOT resolve to YES if a Playstation 6 is announced.
The 'pro' version can have any other name as long as it's considered a PS5 upgrade, much like the PS4 Pro.
The market resolves to NO if there are no new console announcements.
|
2024-06-05T03:46:14
|
2024-09-10T14:19:03
|
2024-09-10T14:19:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0X4ZXiYsJmVvjVwviVRj
|
Will bitcoin end June 30, 2024 over $78000?
|
End of month California time
|
2024-06-05T02:09:38
|
2024-06-30T07:59:00
|
2024-07-03T12:37:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ceVViMOewgc4GXfXApmK
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will any Tory candidates defect and run for Reform UK?
|
A feature of the last Parliament was the constant rumours that Conservative Party MPs were going defect to Reform UK. In the end, Lee Anderson was the only one who actually did!
Once again, there have been rumours this week of Conservative candidates defecting to Reform off the back of their big relaunch.
Will either of the following run as Reform UK candidates?
Outgoing Conservative MPs (ie. people who were MPs until Parliament dissolved last week and were most recently sitting as Conservative MPs)
Anyone who has been officially announced as the Conservative Party candidate for any constituency in the general election, whether they then run in the same constituency or a different one
For this to count, they must formally register as the Reform UK candidate. It will not be sufficient for them to announce their defection to Reform if they are still appearing on the ballot as a Conservative or an independent.
Former MPs will not count for this market if they left Parliament before the end of the most recent term.
Nominations/registrations close at 4:00 on Friday afternoon so we should have an answer pretty quickly!
Related markets:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-refor
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-who-will-f
@/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-get-over-4000000-vot
@/SimonGrayson/general-election-2024-where-will-ni
Other general election markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-conservative-party-win-few
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-s-qzm55nj4xt
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw
|
2024-06-05T02:04:31
|
2024-06-09T14:48:13
|
2024-06-09T14:48:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e0OVJQIAAHKXRofxlvI8
|
Will Israel launch a war on Hezbollah before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if
Formal declaration of war on Lebanon or Hezbollah
Announcement or commencement of ground operations into Lebanon to combat Hezbollah
[image][image]
|
2024-06-05T00:29:50
|
2024-10-01T14:41:48
|
2024-10-01T14:41:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-piw0YOiRwSpPmEbJHrXf
|
Will either Biden or Trump die before their respective party conventions end?
|
August 22 for Biden and July 18th for Trump.
|
2024-06-04T17:11:50
|
2024-08-20T19:58:18
|
2024-08-20T19:58:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dDHfnL7yT18fbFN3CfRm
|
Will Hunter Biden be found guilty for any of the 3 charges in the gun case?
|
This question resolves YES if he is found guilty for any of the following 3 charges:
Making false statements X 2
Illegal gun possession
Additional charges found or from other cases will not apply to this question, we are only looking at the 3 charges above.
If he is found guilty for 1 or more charges.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4nnr9945vmo
|
2024-06-04T09:46:23
|
2024-06-11T11:51:00
|
2024-06-11T11:51:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gk4gN5eRPxPJGGYliMyC
|
Will Solana become a top 3 cryptocurrency by market cap before EOY?
|
According to CoinMarketCap.com, will Solana reach #3?
Currently #5 with a $76.5 billion market cap.
#3 is currently Tether with a market cap of $112.3 billion
|
2024-06-04T07:03:54
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:22:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sLYr3tzmoyFG9IfK49vc
|
[Metaculus] On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24806/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-06-04T06:31:25
|
2024-06-28T13:00:00
|
2024-06-28T15:21:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fDI1wfsh6SeZdYOOPq6p
|
Will Tesla shareholders vote to give Musk a $56 billion retroactive pay package in June 13th shareholder vote?
|
There's lots of reporting on this: https://www.theverge.com/2024/6/3/24170368/elon-musk-tesla-pay-package-shareholder-meeting
And opining: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-05-29/everyone-wants-elon-musk-s-attention
I've set the close date to be a week after the vote, but I will close it once one of the major publications reports the result
|
2024-06-04T06:04:46
|
2024-06-14T08:41:45
|
2024-06-14T08:41:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xluTK5DYPfZI8Ke1KlvC
|
Will Portugal 🇵🇹 beat Croatia 🇭🇷 on Sat, Jun 8, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽
|
📅 Date: Saturday, June 8, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Portugal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Croatia has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 Match details
|
2024-06-03T22:53:04
|
2024-06-08T13:47:40
|
2024-06-08T13:47:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5YezCByyU3Pn3vaieURY
|
Will Florida Panthers beat Edmonton Oilers in the Stanley Cup Finals (Prediction Market)
|
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
The market will close at 7pm CST June 24
This market will be reopened if the series is tied and closed again at the start of the tie-breaking game.
Resolves YES or NO .
Hockey games don't tie. Overtime is to the death.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/who-will-win-the-final-series-of-th)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JacksonZipp/2024-nhl-playoff-series-predictions)(https://manifold.markets/embed/eaglescout/will-a-canadian-team-win-the-202320)(https://manifold.markets/embed/vibhav/stanley-cup-finals-exact-outcome)(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/mlb-spring-training-mar-7-all-games)
|
2024-06-03T17:39:38
|
2024-06-24T17:00:00
|
2024-06-24T19:57:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j4h8jL02cgr4xvaqBdOW
|
Will Donald Trump die, of causes natural or not, before election day 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-03T16:03:08
|
2024-11-04T21:17:17
|
2024-11-04T21:17:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M7rnQci8gT1zIPxqFdI0
|
Will Keith Gill (a.k.a. Roaring Kitty) be kicked off the E*Trade platform by Juneteenth? (June 19th)
|
From the WSJ:
E*Trade is considering telling meme-stock leader Keith Gill he can no longer use its platform after growing concerned about potential stock manipulation around his recent purchases of GameStop options, according to people familiar with the matter.
At E*Trade and its owner Morgan Stanley, that power created concerns he can pump up a stock for his own benefit. Their debate includes whether his actions amounted to manipulation and whether or not the firm is willing to risk drawing the attention of his meme army by removing him, according to people familiar with their internal discussions.
This market resolves YES if there are credible news report that Keith Gill has been involuntarily kicked off or removed from the E*Trade platform by EOD on June 19th. It resolves NO by default (in the absence of any credible reports).
It also counts if his account has been so severely limited (far beyond that of a typical user) that it is functionally similar to being removed from the platform.
It can't just be the promise of future enforcement (e.g. after June, they won't accept any new trades from him).
June 19th seems like a reasonable deadline because Keith Gill (a.k.a. u/deepfuckingvalue) has ~$65 million in call options expiring on June 21st. So if E*Trade wants to step in, they may need to move quickly.
If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.
|
2024-06-03T14:05:22
|
2024-06-19T23:59:00
|
2024-06-20T06:38:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-31O4J52z8IoOF030eRjW
|
Will Germany 🇩🇪 beat Greece 🇬🇷 on Fri, Jun 7, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽
|
📅 Date: Friday, June 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Germany has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Greece has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 Match details
|
2024-06-03T12:11:45
|
2024-06-07T13:42:18
|
2024-06-07T13:42:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n2DFTVbAmSeanW6qXWtv
|
Will England beat Iceland on Fri, Jun 7, 2024? - Men's International Friendly ⚽
|
📅 Date: Friday, June 7, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Men's International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- England has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Iceland has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 Match details
|
2024-06-03T10:21:23
|
2024-06-07T13:40:55
|
2024-06-07T13:40:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iVgiDMUERQbVdcth11pK
|
Will Trump's sentencing occur before the Republican National Convention?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-03T10:04:54
|
2024-07-14T23:59:00
|
2024-07-16T01:00:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e6RT73qbIfSvPivd5QHL
|
UK General Election - Will the Conservatives win less than 100 seats
|
Resolution criteria:
YES - Conservatives get less than 100 seats in the next UK GE
NO - Conservatives get more than 100 seats in the next UK GE
Election is scheduled for 04/07/2024 - results come in throughout the night.
|
2024-06-03T09:48:37
|
2024-07-06T10:14:28
|
2024-07-06T10:14:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JgtylACtp9Te19fxofC5
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK get over 4,000,000 votes?
|
Nigel Farage today announced that he will be returning to be the leader of Reform UK and that he will be standing as the candidate for Clacton:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/03/nigel-farage-to-stand-for-reform-uk-in-general-election-after-u-turn
He said in his speech that UKIP got 4 million votes at their peak and that they will get even more votes this time.
Will they get more than 4 million votes?
|
2024-06-03T08:31:44
|
2024-07-06T02:39:27
|
2024-07-06T02:39:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LesUhZn88wsOk4KAUuJ7
|
[Metaculus] Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
|
Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/24020/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-06-03T06:26:27
|
2024-11-07T09:00:00
|
2024-11-07T15:31:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-espBHaGHbj32yVbLqLSW
|
Will Infowars be shut down within 48 hours?
|
Alex Jones claims that infowars could be shutdown within hours. Is this real, or is it just a fundraising gimmick?
https://www.newsweek.com/alex-jones-says-infowars-could-shut-down-within-hours-1907182
|
2024-06-02T22:27:19
|
2024-06-04T22:27:19
|
2024-06-05T08:03:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JlXRyq4sX907jxWinTSe
|
Will "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) be the highest grossing (worldwide) of the franchise? (>$426M)
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo
According to BoxOfficeMojo, the highest grossing entry in the Bad Boys franchise is "Bad Boys For Life" (2020), with a worldwide gross of $426,505,244.
This market resolves YES if "Bad Boys: Ride or Die" (2024) grosses >$426,505,244 within 3 months of release (i.e. September 7th)
I will use the number displayed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined ("WORLDWIDE", on the main page).
If the result seems mathematically certain, I reserve the right to resolve the market early.
|
2024-06-02T20:51:39
|
2024-09-07T23:59:00
|
2024-09-10T08:40:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IxDznuH9Dq9tnkwGVFtz
|
Will u/DeepFuckingValue (Roaring Kitty) post a screenshot of his account with over a billion dollars in 2024?
|
Roaring Kitty’s recent ‘GME YOLO Update’ Reddit post showed his account with a total value of $210 million. Will he post a screenshot of his account with over $1 billion in 2024?
Edit: Showing account balance during livestream DOES NOT count. Must be a screenshot posted by him (as per usual).
|
2024-06-02T20:45:07
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2024-12-31T19:11:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FfBhndVL4L1PzMikm7jz
|
Politico says that Biden will issue an executive order on immigration by Tuesday June 4. Will Biden do so?
|
Title: Biden executive action could come as early as Tuesday.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/02/biden-executive-action-border-tuesday-00161176
If the order is issued on Wednesday morning it does not count for this market. Order must be issued by Tuesday.
|
2024-06-02T18:05:56
|
2024-06-04T09:49:19
|
2024-06-04T09:49:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-226F7kyrltPOoycwVE33
|
Will a medal-winning athlete hold up a Palestine flag on the podium during the 2024 Olympics?
|
This market will resolve 'Yes' if a medal-winning athlete, during the official medal ceremony at the 2024 Olympics, visibly holds up a Palestine flag in celebration or solidarity. This includes instances where the flag is displayed prominently and recognizably, such as being waved, draped over the athlete's shoulders, or held in their hand.
The flag must be identifiable as representing Palestine, regardless of its size or specific design. Any other use of the Palestine flag outside of the official medal ceremony, such as during competitions or warm-up sessions, does not count towards the resolution of this market. Additionally, if the athlete holds up multiple flags, the presence of the Palestine flag must be distinct and intentional to resolve this market as 'Yes'.
|
2024-06-02T14:12:51
|
2024-08-11T15:59:00
|
2024-08-13T11:10:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l5lizalEfMpIYUAqKuHl
|
Will the Boston Celtics beat the Dallas Mavericks by 8 points (or more) in Game 1 of the NBA Finals?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-02T02:51:49
|
2024-06-06T19:49:07
|
2024-06-06T19:49:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XgRaMpytxcTgxCttl5dB
|
Will Trump be convicted of any more felonies or federal crimes after the New York case, and before Election Day?
|
The market will resolve Yes if Trump is convicted of any felonies in state court, or any federal crimes after the New York hush money case, and before election day.
Otherwise, it will resolve No.
|
2024-06-01T23:10:27
|
2024-11-05T12:45:54
|
2024-11-05T12:45:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-po5P7afYMej7Nqp5waB6
|
Will Trump be pardoned OR have a significant legal victory in the New York case before the election?
|
Trump was convicted in New York on 34 counts.
https://deepnewz.com/politics/rep-dean-phillips-urges-gov-hochul-to-pardon-trump-after-felony-conviction-good
[image]Market will resolve Yes if:
Trump is pardoned or the conviction is overturned, vacated, or otherwise dismissed
if Trump wins an appeal to overturn, stay, or postpone his conviction in New York State or the Supreme Court
The market will resolve NO if:
nothing happens
the conviction is not overturned or vacated
Market will resolve at election day 2024.
|
2024-06-01T23:08:20
|
2024-09-06T11:07:40
|
2024-09-06T11:07:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8oYe5cYMSLlHz9qtMXYL
|
Will Harry Kane score more goals at EURO 2024 than the entire teams of Poland and Albania combined?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-06-01T20:53:38
|
2024-07-14T13:51:20
|
2024-07-14T13:51:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5vJoPZxMhm0L6EMRlA7j
|
Will SB 1047 survive this legislative session such that the bill makes it to Governor Newsom’s desk?
|
Over the course of the next few months, SB 1047 will be going through the California Assembly, and if it survives, will go to the governor’s office in September to be signed or vetoed.
https://safesecureai.org/
|
2024-06-01T19:18:24
|
2024-08-29T11:34:43
|
2024-08-29T11:34:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iZdkzePDGcCrbSkAvyC4
|
Will the Nintendo Switch 2 have the same general design of the switch?
|
For this to be true, the switch 2 must have a small portable screen and detachable controllers on the left and ride sides (like joycons) and be connected to a TV by a dock visually similar to the switch's dock.
|
2024-06-01T14:57:50
|
2025-01-16T08:06:38
|
2025-01-16T08:06:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IkxCZ1KxXUgH2EFy6Pbd
|
Will GME reach $50 before ether end of June 2024
|
GameStop closed on $23.14 on May 31st 2024
*Includes pre-market price in USD
Market resolved to YES since GME crossed $50 after hours on June 6th 2024
|
2024-06-01T13:42:20
|
2024-06-06T14:13:43
|
2024-06-06T14:13:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oyoKbnPVdKGZqCJJD1wO
|
Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match be rearranged and go ahead in 2024?
|
80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson was due to take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July.
However, the fight on that date has been cancelled due to Tyson's medical issues:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/articles/c2xx1vdvjpro
Both "fighters" claim that this is just a temporary postponement and that the fight will be rearranged. Netflix says that the fight will go ahead in 2024. Will it?
If the fight is rearranged for 2024 and the fight goes ahead with both fighters present, this market will resolve to YES.
If the fight does not take place in 2024, this will resolve to NO.
If a date is set, I will wait to see if the fight actually goes ahead before resolving.
|
2024-06-01T06:46:21
|
2024-11-16T04:57:44
|
2024-11-16T04:57:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MnHrajBT05pqRgmUecix
|
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
|
This resolves to yes if the blockade begins after 10/31/2024 and before 1/21/2025.
|
2024-06-01T06:30:16
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-26T04:03:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0eyHWQbaW9qLWJzy9761
|
Will any of the other Donald Trump criminal trials (Jury Selection) start before the November Presidential election?
|
The question resolves YES whenever jury selection starts in any of the mentioned cases (State - Georgia Fulton County, Federal Classified Docs Case or Federal January 6th Case reach trial), and if it still hasn't resolved on November 5 it resolves NO.
|
2024-06-01T05:46:22
|
2024-10-28T17:06:54
|
2024-10-28T17:06:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NrJjqVDyXkRQV9SOtm3U
|
Will Joe Manchin run for Governor of West Virginia as an Independent?
|
Resolves if he decides to run, or decides to not run
|
2024-05-31T21:05:38
|
2024-07-30T21:55:57
|
2024-07-30T21:55:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o1gxxvnhLsPNswwDZuEO
|
Will Destiny make it home from Israel alive?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-31T15:10:43
|
2024-06-14T18:30:29
|
2024-06-14T18:30:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ywd2UEcRCoduwQYfZEmq
|
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
|
Same rules as my other market: @/Soli/will-openai-launch-a-model-that-is
Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.
+ The model must achieve an elo rating that is at least 100 points higher than the scores of OpenAI's free models on Chatbot Arena
|
2024-05-31T13:26:34
|
2024-12-31T10:58:19
|
2024-12-31T10:58:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u0FUpj0LBNgnvcmamFkI
|
Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced in 2024?
|
[tweet]I think of OpenAI as the infrastructure layer of AI, similar to AWS with the web. I wonder if they would roll out a feature that allows OpenAI users to sign-in using their accounts to other services and apps similar to how sign-in with Google or Facebook works.
@/Soli/will-signin-with-openai-be-announce
|
2024-05-31T13:02:43
|
2024-12-31T11:03:44
|
2024-12-31T11:03:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zutDEtzXJq9pvcrSsRgd
|
Will someone die from or with H5N1 Bird Flu in America in 2024?
|
Third human case was confirmed on May 31st.
https://deepnewz.com/bio/second-human-h5n1-bird-flu-case-michigan-third-u-s-this-year
So far all US dairy workers.
Market will resolve Yes based on media reports. To avoid confusion anyone who dies WITH H5N1 Bird Flu *in the United States of America* will count. The death has to be confirmed in consensus of media reports by end of 2024.
|
2024-05-31T10:20:04
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T17:53:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sXzllzL6HNXTngxd1C58
|
Will a French soldier in Ukraine be killed by Russia before the end of 2024?
|
France is expected to deploy troops to Ukraine as soon as next week, in the capacity of "trainers." Nevertheless, these soldiers will clearly have a high bounty on their head by Russia.
This question will resolve YES if it is confirmed a French soldier was killed in Ukraine by Russia before the end of the year, by any means, including air strike. Official confirmation from the French, Ukranian, or U.S. government will be sufficient to resolve as YES. If the claim comes from Russia, conclusive proof will need to be provided as they have high incentive to fabricate it. Generally, any proof provided by Russia would need to be reported on and generally accepted by credible Western media sources.
|
2024-05-31T07:27:23
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:44:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tFnhGN6rq3CilielCxaV
|
Will IDF ground forces (a brigade sized force or larger) enter Southern Lebanon before July 31st.
|
Will there be a large scale invasion (a brigade sized or larger force) into Lebanese territory before July 31st 2024
|
2024-05-31T06:39:53
|
2024-07-31T17:05:23
|
2024-07-31T17:05:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2YrP8jxfgVlejTo10txZ
|
Will France reach the semi-finals at UEFA Euro 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-31T02:53:10
|
2024-07-07T13:37:29
|
2024-07-07T13:37:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LBErhBxUxyeIGzAPts46
|
Will the first 2-way national presidential poll after the Trump trial show Biden leading? (538)
|
Resolves based on the first two-way poll chronologically on this page (sorting by date added) with polling conducted starting on May 31 or later: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/
Two-way polls do not include third party candidates.
|
2024-05-31T01:29:37
|
2024-06-01T09:59:00
|
2024-06-01T14:09:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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