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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-dMj0MKmumcVGbTtpSD9X
|
Elon Musk and a current or former US president appear in a photo together before mid 2025
|
Photo must be real and taken in person where they both are physically in the same location, after creation of this market.
|
2024-05-30T18:33:05
|
2024-11-08T10:01:24
|
2024-11-08T10:01:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K5jvdzYCufB2diB80fQY
|
Will Jordan Peterson interview Trump by election day 2024?
|
Tim Pool released an interview with Trump recently. Will Jordan Peterson also interview him by election day 2024?
|
2024-05-30T17:38:52
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-05T21:13:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yXGCj9yBYrcgSeRvJ4RR
|
Will Trump file an appeal in his NY case before he announces a Vice president Running mate?
|
They must file the full appeal NOT just the notice to appeal
|
2024-05-30T16:14:02
|
2024-07-15T12:28:09
|
2024-07-15T12:28:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ynVXMvvaemmypx9EeFUE
|
Will Trump Face Significant Repercussions (Incarceration or Political Restrictions) from Hush Money Verdict?
|
Resolution Criteria
Definition of repercussions: Any form of incarceration (including house arrest) or substantial restrictions on political activities. Mere fines, a successful appeal (nullifying the verdict), or losing the right to vote count as no significant repercussions and resolve to NO.
Community Service Clause: I will count community service as significant repercussions only if Trump is treated equally to the other felons. A token service will resolve to NO at my discression.
Timeline: Assessment based on legal status 18 months from the initial verdict.
Verification: Official court documents or credible news sources confirming the outcome.
Appeal: If the verdict is overturned, it counts as no repercussions.
Fine-only scenario: If Trump only pays a fine, it counts as no repercussions.
|
2024-05-30T15:02:34
|
2025-01-11T16:05:09
|
2025-01-11T16:05:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bGNKW02TUMbdx5tzcW90
|
Will the name of at least one of the Manhattan trial Trump jurors be known within one month of the verdict?
|
Resolves YES if a reliable source (NYT, CNN, Fox, etc.) reports that the name of at least one of the 12 jurors in the Manhattan case has been revealed or leaked within one month of May 30th. Resolves NO otherwise.
Alternates do not count.
I will not bet in this market.
For the one week version see
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaB/will-the-name-of-at-least-one-of-th)
|
2024-05-30T15:00:33
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T10:47:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i5jw0hITGB5MZHKqFEuR
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July?
|
End of day Israel time zone
Must be agreed upon by both sides
Not just the framework
|
2024-05-30T14:58:05
|
2024-07-31T20:59:00
|
2024-07-31T21:04:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mNccptRmfGGl9UZtl2wk
|
Will Donald Trump be eligible to vote in the 2024 election?
|
Trump was just convicted of 34 felonies. Will he be eligible to vote in the 2024 election?
https://dos.fl.gov/elections/for-voters/voter-registration/constitutional-amendment-4felon-voting-rights/
|
2024-05-30T14:20:17
|
2024-11-05T11:11:27
|
2024-11-05T11:11:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-woiVbQjfBSdAiFv7Jiyu
|
Will Russia unilaterally reconstitute own government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities in 2024?
|
The bet resolves as yes if:
Official Announcement: A clear, unambiguous announcement from Russian government sources confirming the unilateral reconstitution of the government of Ukraine with self-appointed authorities, claiming that the existing authorities are unconstitutional due to the expiration of their term of office, by the end of 2024.
Actions by Russian Authorities: Verifiable evidence of significant actions by Russian authorities leading to the establishment of self-appointed authorities in Ukraine, even if the self-appointed government does not effectively govern Ukraine but is nominally established.
No:
Official Denial: A clear, unambiguous statement from Russian government sources denying any intention or plan to unilaterally reconstitute the government of Ukraine.
Lack of Significant Actions: Absence of verifiable evidence of significant actions by Russian authorities aimed at establishing self-appointed authorities in Ukraine.
|
2024-05-30T12:58:50
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:25:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pCHPPm88gyxpbBSvNePW
|
If Trump Wins, will Elon Musk have an advisory role in his administration? 🇺🇸🗽🗳️🌎
|
[image]https://amp.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/29/elon-musk-trump-white-house-role
RESOLUTION
resolves yes if Trump wins the election and Elon Musk has an advisory role in his administration
|
2024-05-30T09:45:52
|
2024-12-17T16:21:08
|
2024-12-17T16:21:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RCiDzgPymY9mp2OS05LV
|
Will Nvidia close above $1138 on May 31st?
|
Resolve Yes if Nvidia close above $1138 on May 31st
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history/
I reserve the right to close the market at any moment, even before resolution is out.
Give me 3 days to resolve this market after the end of May 31st
|
2024-05-30T08:49:03
|
2024-05-31T17:25:43
|
2024-05-31T17:25:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W98ZzyNBGDzrQkffdDdk
|
President Joe Biden involved in an helicopter crash in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-29T23:37:23
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-20T08:03:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QeE1MTQWCHnR68dDFMWu
|
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the EURO 2024?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Cristiano Ronaldo scores at least one goal on EURO 2024.
Goals from penalty shootouts do not count.
[tweet]
|
2024-05-29T14:34:20
|
2024-06-30T14:59:00
|
2024-07-08T15:13:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BroOcFUWD0noqS5eIy4b
|
Will the Labour Party win more than 50% of the popular vote in the next UK election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-29T11:05:10
|
2024-06-28T20:59:00
|
2024-07-05T06:06:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jhzjsb29e1HMjyDCndwA
|
Will GPT-5 be released on 6th of June?
|
There is some speculation that GPT-5 will be released on 6th of June.
See here https://x.com/countdowntogpt?s=21
[link preview]Will resolve to YES if there is an announcement with shared examples or if the model will be actually usable through chatgpt or api.
|
2024-05-29T04:58:24
|
2024-06-07T02:59:00
|
2024-06-07T03:12:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zyMxfC8icLZpe8Iya7wG
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is at least 30 points?
|
With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.
The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the campaign (JL Partners saying that Labour are 12 points ahead) as well as the largest lead (YouGov saying that Labour are 27 points ahead):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will there be a poll between now and the general election showing a lead of 30 points or more?
This market resolves to YES if there is a poll released showing Labour with a lead of 30 points or more over the second placed party (whether that is the Conservative Party or not).
The market will resolve to NO if the final pre-general election polls are released and this has not happened.
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there
Polling rules/clarifications:
The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.
The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count
The market will resolve based on the poll's own headline rounding. I will not be looking at the underlying data to see if the result would have been different if it was not rounded to the nearest whole number.
Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.
|
2024-05-29T02:54:48
|
2024-07-04T03:00:00
|
2024-07-05T03:32:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I1bJla3XBQSeytB7dCGB
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will there be a poll where the Labour lead is below 10 points?
|
With 36 days until the general election, we can expect a lot of opinion polling in the coming weeks.
The last 24 hours have seen the smallest Labour lead of the campaign (JL Partners saying that Labour are 12 points ahead) as well as the largest lead (YouGov saying that Labour are 27 points ahead):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will there be a poll between now and the general election showing a single digit Labour lead?
This market resolves to YES if there is a poll released showing Labour with a lead of 9 points or less over the second placed party (whether that is the Conservative Party or not) or showing a party other than Labour in the lead.
The market will resolve to NO if the final pre-general election polls are released and Labour have led by 10 points or more in every single poll.
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-will-there-yk246fcxcw
Polling rules/clarifications:
The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.
The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count
The market will resolve based on the poll's own headline rounding. I will not be looking at the underlying data to see if the result would have been different if it was not rounded to the nearest whole number.
Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.
|
2024-05-29T02:53:03
|
2024-07-04T03:00:00
|
2024-07-05T03:32:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7LhCUzA4f15Gur94Yh0Q
|
Will Anthropic Release a major new model this year (e.g. Claude 3.5/4 family)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-29T00:28:49
|
2024-06-20T09:04:47
|
2024-06-20T09:04:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n5OfGUXhVB6dA1XQ6ehY
|
Will Nvidia stock crash before the S&P500?
|
A crash here means 20% drop from all time highs to end of day price.
Will resolve to YES if it happens to Nvidia stock first, NO if it happens to the S&P 500 first, and 50% if both happens on the same day.
|
2024-05-28T22:23:15
|
2024-07-30T11:23:29
|
2024-07-30T11:23:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1alNazfiL0X88a60FODl
|
Will Trump have a cell mate before he has a running mate?
|
Resolves yes if Trump is sentenced to any time in jail (and share space with another prisoner) before he formally announces a running mate. Resolves no if his running mate is announced beforehand. Resolves 50% if his cell mate is his running mate and its like a love at first sight kind of thing.
|
2024-05-28T10:49:25
|
2024-07-15T13:17:06
|
2024-07-15T13:17:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kth5ncBT4pzzUbboRIYt
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Rishi Sunak debate Nigel Farage?
|
We are 37 days away from the general election and it is expected that the two main party leaders will have one or more debates during the campaign:
@/NoitUK/will-there-be-a-televised-debate-be
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-2024-how-many-t
While Sunak has suggested six debates so that he can then accuse Starmer of running scared rather than agreeing to that many, Nigel Farage has now entered the fray and challenged Sunak to a debate about small boats!
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/27/nigel-farage-challenges-rishi-sunak-to-immigration-debate/
Will any televised debate between the two of them take place?
Debate definition for this market:
Both Sunak and Farage appearing in the same broadcast.
Direct interaction between the two, i.e. they are permitted to respond to each other’s statements directly.
Equal representation, I.e. both are allowed to speak for approximately the same time.
A moderator to provide questions and enforce the rules of the debate.
Broadcast on one of the main free to air UK TV channels.
If someone else such as Keir Starmer also appears in the debate, this will still resolve to YES if the above definition is met.
|
2024-05-28T04:19:44
|
2024-07-03T23:32:28
|
2024-07-03T23:32:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CsFFqpYZBlrxTWE82P2L
|
Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?
|
Performance: As measured by MMLU or Lmsys Arena against any GPT4 series variant
|
2024-05-28T02:48:01
|
2024-08-13T23:23:35
|
2024-08-13T23:23:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NiBU8MjujoJ6GeDsRDDU
|
Will Carlos move to Williams Racing in 2025?
|
[image]
|
2024-05-27T23:14:26
|
2024-07-29T07:45:59
|
2024-07-29T07:45:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bdt5fVrB5w1hharlzY9x
|
Will Germany win UEFA Euro 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-27T22:49:12
|
2024-07-05T22:38:57
|
2024-07-05T22:38:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OBMH2tBYb2dIriwo65GT
|
Will at least 90 nations win a medal at the 2024 Summer Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-27T16:07:36
|
2024-08-11T21:51:47
|
2024-08-11T21:51:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-szGB2sIs5q8OOdiM8WsW
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Canadian Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race should take place on Sunday, June 9.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
|
2024-05-27T13:14:36
|
2024-06-09T13:31:06
|
2024-06-09T13:31:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mNmm4cjC76wotZKXWzs9
|
Will Esteban Ocon drive for Alpine at the 2024 Canadian GP?
|
There have been rumors of Alpine Esteban Ocon will be punished by Alpine for his crash with Gasly in Monaco by not driving in Canada. This market resolves to Yes if Ocon participates in the race in Montreal and resolves to No if Ocon doesn't participate for Alpine in the race for any reason.
|
2024-05-27T12:36:45
|
2024-06-09T18:00:48
|
2024-06-09T18:00:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T9SzDR6iIs9TQqOKuh9q
|
Will Joe Biden suffer a stroke or heart attack before January 20, 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-27T12:32:19
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-21T04:57:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7fE5pdWAuGOqQimdhrDo
|
Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025?
|
Leaderboard here.
If a model that could plausibly be within 50 points of the leading model has just been released but does not yet have a rating, I will wait for the rating.
If xAI is acquired or merges with another company, this will resolve 50%. If LMSYS is no longer displaying rankings or for some reason won't rank leading models, this will resolve 50%.
|
2024-05-27T12:15:31
|
2024-08-23T11:32:16
|
2024-08-23T11:32:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BacsQJCwUMBs060XfogZ
|
Will Beetlejuice Beetlejuice get 80% or over on Rotten Tomatoes?
|
First one has 86%. Resolves on the 13th of September
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/beetlejuice_beetlejuice
Link for convenience... at 82% as of this writing but we'll see
|
2024-05-27T11:38:21
|
2024-09-13T10:01:52
|
2024-09-13T10:01:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Eu19Q6BBR7OQrQK1Y48O
|
will sam altman post a tweet with correct capitalization and multiple sentences before july?
|
if sam posts any regular timeline tweet (not a reply or retweet but can be a quote tweet) where he uses multiple sentences and all of them have everything correctly capitalized according to grammarly, this market resolves to "yes".
if there is no such tweet after market creation and before market close on 11:59 pm pt on june 30, this market resolves to "no".
sam does not like capital letters, as you can see here:
[image]however, sometimes he will do it:
[image]he's been in some hot water recently, so maybe it's time for another serious tweet?
|
2024-05-27T10:40:31
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-09-08T10:12:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-21d6jrX8eLBP4rCP9wc8
|
will sam altman post a tweet with correct capitalization and multiple sentences before june third?
|
if sam posts any regular timeline tweet (not a reply or retweet but can be a quote tweet) where he uses multiple sentences and all of them have everything correctly capitalized according to grammarly, this market resolves to "yes".
if there is no such tweet after market creation and before market close on 11:59 pm pt on june second, this market resolves to "no".
sam does not like capital letters, as you can see here:
[image]however, sometimes he will do it:
[image]he's been in some hot water recently, so maybe it's time for another serious tweet?
|
2024-05-27T10:36:20
|
2024-06-02T23:59:00
|
2024-06-03T09:13:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Puz9gEnTqCSOQNxhgsm2
|
Will the TIME 100 Most Influential Companies of 2024 list actually come out in May as promised?
|
This page has just said "2024 HONOREES ANNOUNCED IN MAY" for ages now. I've been checking every day for my market, @/Joshua/what-will-be-time-magazines-100-mos-1ccb89e7e3a1
The FAQ says:
[image]This market closes at 11:59 PM PT on Friday, May 31st. If the list is published before market close, resolves YES. If not, resolves NO.
|
2024-05-27T10:06:58
|
2024-05-30T05:31:18
|
2024-05-30T05:31:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K2F7iWo1up6CnKH4Gu6v
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be selected as a Vice Presidential candidate?
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be a Vice Presidential candidate in 2024?
This will resolve YES if Mr. Ramaswamy is selected to be VP by any person or party running for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. This will resolve NO if he is not selected as a VP before September.
NOTE: Deadline is September 1, 2024.
If by this date he has not been named a VP candidate, this will resolve NO. If he is named a VP after this date, this will have already resolved NO.
CLARIFICATIONS: This question is not restricted to Donald Trump's selection for VP. This question will resolve YES if Ramaswamy is selected for VP by some other party or individual running for president. Also, if Ramaswamy is selected as a presidential candidate, this will resolve NO because this question is specific to him running as a vice presidential candidate.
|
2024-05-27T09:34:05
|
2024-09-01T07:08:57
|
2024-09-01T07:08:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EUnfA8BDjbkrVSm2dfGD
|
Will Egypt attack Israel in retaliation for the death of an Egyptian soldier at the Rafah border, by June 14th?
|
[tweet]Will Egypt retaliate against Israel, by June 14th?
Resolves YES if Egypt:
Attacks any Israeli military assets or personnel, or Israeli civilian assets
before June 14th, local time in Israel, and
there is credible reporting attributing the attack(s) as specifically in response to the death of the Egyptian soldier, ie unrelated attacks will not count.
An attack need not be successful or cause any casualties to count, but must be a kinetic attack with the potential to cause physical injury or property damage. i.e. cyber attacks do not count.
I won't bet on this market.
|
2024-05-27T07:44:19
|
2024-06-14T15:59:00
|
2024-06-15T09:42:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ekWBCUavTjQoZU942A1K
|
Will Germany (the host country) reach the semi-finals at UEFA Euro 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-27T04:06:09
|
2024-07-05T11:38:47
|
2024-07-05T11:38:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tSmI97iXzTCHLh61JPTs
|
Will Ross Ulbricht be pardoned or have his sentence commuted to time served before March 2025?
|
[tweet]If Ross' sentence is commuted to time served or he is fully pardoned before March 1st 2025, this market resolves YES. This is regardless of who commutes his sentence or pardons him.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-05-26T21:18:31
|
2025-01-22T08:03:17
|
2025-01-22T08:03:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yVFwk772HjW500uNhg6K
|
Will the Reform Party win a nonzero number of seats in the 2024 election?
|
🗳️ The next UK General Election will be held on 2024-07-04.
🩵 Reform UK is the successor to the Brexit Party who is the successor to UKIP (kinda). Though massively successful in EU elections as the Brexit Party, they earned a mere 2% of the vote and 0 seats during 2019 HoC elections. Polls suggest they may win ~12% of the vote in 2024, though the UK's atrocious voting system should be kept in mind.
🎲 Resolution will be determined by official House of Commons totals after the July 4th election.
🃏 Resolves N/A in the unlikely but quite welcome event that the UK ceases to exist or is annexed by the United States before resolution.
🔗Source used will be the House of Commons Library.
|
2024-05-26T18:33:57
|
2024-07-05T15:59:00
|
2024-07-06T16:44:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1a8OtbUEs2Nks9CVIfAu
|
Was Caitlyn Jenner hacked to post about cryptocurrency?
|
Resolves similiarly to this Polymarket, unless they make a controversial resolution choice in which case I am delegating resolution power to @jacksonpolack.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence is released that Caitlyn Jenner's X account @Caitlyn_Jenner, https://x.com/Caitlyn_Jenner, was hacked, meaning that the recent tweet(s) about $JENNER were posted without her consent or authorization. This market will resolve to "No" otherwise.
This market will resolve to "No" immediately if Caitlyn Jenner personally and verifiably confirms that she was not hacked. If no definitive evidence is released prior to Tuesday, May 28, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."
This market will resolve according to official statements from Caitlyn Jenner or a consensus of credible reporting.
Additional Context:
Initial Tweet:
[image]Video, which some people think is fake:
[tweet]Current Polymarket situation:
[image]
|
2024-05-26T18:18:23
|
2024-05-28T23:59:00
|
2024-05-29T07:44:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RLt8Q8zPq2NMouT17cIn
|
Will Trump say all 50 states before the election?
|
Resolves YES if Trump verbally utters (i.e. written text does not count) every single state, regardless of context, between market open and Election Day. Resolves NO if he neglects at least one.
In the unlikely event that a state is added between now and Election Day, Trump must say that state as well. Similarly, if a state is removed, that removes the requirement that Trump must say it.
See this spreadsheet to see Trump’s progress!
|
2024-05-26T12:17:06
|
2024-11-08T09:59:00
|
2024-11-09T07:09:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xrtZcU4n5uFRPNNr1Cos
|
Will the highest price for Nvidia NVDA stock for the year be in July 2024?
|
Stock split taken into account (divide by 10 if split by 10)
@/strutheo/will-the-highest-price-for-nvidia-s-4c09da439048
|
2024-05-26T08:55:02
|
2024-07-30T21:27:22
|
2024-07-30T21:27:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7PqNTJ6FapSeF1KiHdkF
|
Will there be a new mid-air collision involving civilians before September 2024?
|
Per Wikipedia:
In aviation, a mid-air collision is an accident in which two or more aircraft come into unplanned contact during flight. Owing to the relatively high velocities involved and the likelihood of subsequent impact with the ground or sea, very severe damage or the total destruction of at least one of the aircraft usually results.
This is the current list of the latest such incidents involving civilians:
[image]If there is a new entry to this list with a date after market creation (May 26th 2024) and before market close (September 1st 2024) this market will resolve YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO.
|
2024-05-26T08:45:13
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-01T09:01:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uhhe66IN7ZeNqCuG0zh3
|
If elected, will Trump commute the prison sentence of Ross Ulbricht?
|
Trump promised to commute the prison sentence of Ross Ulbricht at the Libertarian National Convention yesterday: https://x.com/Bubblebathgirl/status/1794543794664452571
Ulbricht was sentenced to life in prison for founding "Silk Road", which enabled drugs sales on the dark web.
If elected, will Trump in fact commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, at any point during his term?
If Trump is not elected president, this market resolves to N/A. The market is conditional on Trump winning.
|
2024-05-26T07:31:36
|
2025-01-24T09:15:30
|
2025-01-24T10:03:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0WvSe3ZXIKTsakXvP6BD
|
Rishi Sunak involved in an helicopter crash in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-26T05:51:50
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-20T08:03:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Q8HfmOL8GktQI8cozWx
|
Will the UK institute national service before the next general election?
|
If Sunak implements military service or some form of community national service (NOT just announces) be the general election, this resolves yes. Resolves to mainstream news consensus.
|
2024-05-26T04:00:25
|
2024-07-05T12:01:25
|
2024-07-05T12:01:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sizQ32qoI5iPP5hyCOMQ
|
Will England reach the final of UEFA Euro 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-26T02:21:46
|
2024-07-10T15:59:55
|
2024-07-10T15:59:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XVX1jNkzPNBz4DPmxzST
|
If Trump gets elected, will he free Ross Ulbricht?
|
[tweet]otherwise resolves PROB if he loses the election
|
2024-05-25T18:57:49
|
2025-01-21T17:38:21
|
2025-01-21T17:38:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ehtrFqPQ2V5SHbCVjdXy
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Boris Johnson run to be an MP again?
|
Boris Johnson was an MP until June 2023 when he resigned his seat to avoid facing a recall.
There have been rumours that he will stand for Parliament again, possibly in the seat that Michael Gove is vacating:
[tweet]Will Johnson run as a candidate in any seat in the general election, either as an official Conservative Party candidate or in any other capacity?
Nominations are due to close on 7th June, so I can hopefully resolve the market on the 8th rather than needing to wait until closer to the election!
|
2024-05-25T12:04:40
|
2024-06-08T06:18:35
|
2024-06-08T06:18:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dBd12ycgw5G1BOjoBJN8
|
Will Caitlin Clark score 50+ points in any game during her first WNBA season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-25T07:35:00
|
2024-10-19T18:44:21
|
2024-10-19T18:44:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QGyoEpFuyC3Xq7CqUFDt
|
Will Israel unambiguously escalate to a "full-scale" Rafah Offensive before July, according to Wikipedia?
|
This is the Wikipedia article about the Rafah Offensive.
If this article unambiguously and consistently reports that Israel has escalated to a "full-scale" offensive/invasion/assault/etc before July, this market resolves YES. To do so would be a large update from the current article, which cites many sources distinguishing the current offensive from a "full-scale" offensive and only directly describes the operation as a "limited invasion".
As a point of comparison, language like the current Wikipedia article describing the overall invasion of the Gaza Strip would be sufficient for a YES resolution:
The Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip is an ongoing part of the Israel-Hamas war. Immediately after the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel, Israel began the bombing of Gaza Strip and by October 27 Israel had launched a full-scale invasion.
This is intended to be a high bar. In any ambiguous situation, this market's resolution will err towards NO.
This market requires that both the escalation and the updates to the Wikipedia article to take place before July. If these conditions have not been met, this market resolves NO.
Wikipedia vandalism/edit wars will not impact this market's resolution. If the Wikipedia article is folded into another article, that article will be used for resolution instead.
This market's resolution will be based on the market creator's best judgement of Wikipedia's consensus, in consultation with other members of the Manifold community. Feel free to comment, DM, or ask the Manifold discord if you have any questions about the resolution criteria.
Clarifications to these criteria will be added as necessary to best match the spirit of the question. Your comments and predictions are always appreciated.
|
2024-05-24T19:03:31
|
2024-07-01T23:59:00
|
2024-07-08T15:56:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1yZ8runlTOsIxCZlvBoK
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 13th?
|
Going by end of day Israel time
both sides must agree
|
2024-05-24T18:38:40
|
2024-07-13T14:59:00
|
2024-07-13T18:26:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rwb8spHLhFTFd9GtmEza
|
Will the US remove its restrictions on allowing Ukraine to use US weapons to target inside Russia by July 1st?
|
Given the sensitivity of making this policy change explicit, the question will resolve YES if it is "de facto" the case that US weapons are being used to target Russian facilities inside of Russia, and US officials aren't particularly upset about it. Resolves NO if this isn't happening by the deadline, or if there is not strong evidence of such a policy change. Resolves YES immediately if the policy change is made explicit (e.g. Biden/Blinken saying something to this effect).
|
2024-05-24T17:31:06
|
2024-05-30T15:55:52
|
2024-05-30T15:55:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bRKNXg3f0EdzV2SlShQh
|
Will China launch an attack on Taiwan in 2024?
|
Tensions between China and Taiwan have been a longstanding issue. Recently, there has been increased military activity and political rhetoric that has heightened concerns about the possibility of China taking military action against Taiwan. This poll seeks to gauge public opinion on whether people believe China will attack Taiwan in the year 2024.
Criteria for What is Considered an Attack:
Military Invasion: Deployment of Chinese military forces to Taiwanese territory with the intent of taking control.
Airstrikes or Bombardments: Significant and sustained aerial or artillery attacks on Taiwanese military or civilian targets.
Naval Blockade: Implementation of a blockade to cut off Taiwan from international waters and trade routes, accompanied by military engagement.
Occupation: Chinese military forces establishing control over parts of Taiwanese territory through force.
Cyber Attacks with Physical Consequences: Large-scale cyber attacks that cause physical damage to critical infrastructure, leading to widespread disruption and necessitating a military response.
|
2024-05-24T16:46:29
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-12T20:03:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hwTCSNWMf6q66ODC4amT
|
Will 2024 be the hottest year on record, globally?
|
Simple Y/N
This year, records published on Jan 17, so (tentatively) same closing date in 2025.
|
2024-05-24T13:51:13
|
2025-01-17T15:59:00
|
2025-01-18T03:11:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7RFt5Vkw8FVS6v347trd
|
Will Lewis Hamilton or George Russell take 1st, 2nd, or 3rd place at FORMULA 1 GRAND PRIX DE MONACO 2024?
|
This is for either driver or both to end the race on Sunday with a podium finish.
|
2024-05-24T12:50:18
|
2024-05-26T11:04:37
|
2024-05-26T11:04:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eCQuGnev9iXUxryMAsOd
|
Will OpenAI re-add the "Sky" voice by the end of 2024?
|
OpenAI has "paused" the Sky voice. Will it unpause it by the end of the year? It will still count as the same voice if it is broadly the same as the first version, and whether or not it has the same name.
See this question for a shorter-term bet:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Greyhawk/will-openai-readd-the-sky-voice-bef)And some context and analysis:
https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Culture/scarlett-johansson-reacts-openai-similar-voice-org-pauses/story?id=110420930
“The voice of Sky is not Scarlett Johansson's, and it was never intended to resemble hers,” Altman said. “We cast the voice actor behind Sky’s voice before any outreach to Ms. Johansson.”
“Out of respect for Ms. Johansson, we have paused using Sky’s voice in our products,” he added. “We are sorry to Ms. Johansson that we didn’t communicate better.”
Analysis:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/05/22/openai-scarlett-johansson-chatgpt-ai-voice
Several factors go against OpenAI, he said, namely Altman’s tweet and his outreach to Johansson in September and May. “It just begs the question: It’s like, if you use a different person, there was no intent for it to sound like Scarlett Johansson. Why are you reaching out to her two days before?” he said. “That would have to be explained.”
...
In a statement from the Sky actress provided by her agent, she wrote that at times the backlash “feels personal being that it’s just my natural voice and I’ve never been compared to her by the people who do know me closely.”
|
2024-05-24T05:15:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:03:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vqlel5shoIBN16Kz8UwF
|
UK General Election 2024 - Will Reform UK run in at least 600 seats?
|
Reform UK have announced that they will run in almost every seat in this year’s general election:
[tweet]Will this happen? Will they run candidates in at least 600 seats?
For reference, this is how many seats the biggest parties stood in last time:
Conservatives - 635
Labour - 631
Liberal Democrats- 611
Greens - 472
Brexit Party - 275
|
2024-05-24T02:10:28
|
2024-06-08T23:53:25
|
2024-06-08T23:53:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N6Hmi0ZQatgZlb6GTDmD
|
Will Bitcoin hit $75K in June 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-05-24T01:02:40
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T01:28:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cHHRaGlxqtdyZL2YTYfF
|
Will Bitcoin hit $87K in 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-05-24T00:46:26
|
2024-11-11T12:21:05
|
2024-11-11T12:21:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x07rd3JfAdK5faELuDna
|
Will Google pause or remove AI Overviews by the end of May?
|
[tweet]If at any time before the end of May, all 3 of the following test queries do not show up with an “AI Overview” blurb for me upon testing, this question resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.
What goes best on a sandwich?
How much money does it take to retire?
what is in google's ai database?
Currently, 3 for 3 pop up with an AI overview for me. I’m making this the criteria to avoid any arguments about partial rollbacks, revamps, etc.
If they rename it from AI Overview but it’s still substantially the same feature, resolves NO anyway.
|
2024-05-23T21:16:59
|
2024-05-31T16:32:38
|
2024-05-31T16:32:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rLpQRag0vJXpS1lHeUVS
|
Will Edmonton Oilers beat Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Finals?
|
Edmonton Oilers vs Florida Panthers
This market will be open the entire series till a winner is decided.
Resolves YES or NO .
Hockey games don't tie. Overtime is to the death.
https://www.nhl.com/playoffs/2024/bracket
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/who-will-win-the-final-series-of-th)
|
2024-05-23T11:05:26
|
2024-06-24T19:56:31
|
2024-06-24T19:56:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8DHpN28buuz71UW6YVmi
|
Will the Polymarket Ethereum ETF by May31 market resolve YES based on solely a 19b-4 SEC approval?
|
context: Polymarket | Ethereum ETF approved by May 31?
[tweet]This market resolves YES if that market resolves YES and the ETH ETF has only the 19b-4 SEC approval and NOT and S-1 SEC approval by May31.
If that market hasn't resolved by May31, this will wait for the resolution -- but any approvals which occur AFTER May31 will be discounted.
|
2024-05-23T10:46:53
|
2024-05-23T16:06:31
|
2024-05-23T17:53:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yBMw7cPmCg99zCehzh1P
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2024 Formula 1 Monaco Grand Prix?
|
Will Lewis Hamilton finish 1st, 2nd or 3rd at the Monaco Grand Prix on Sunday May 26th?
This will resolve immediately after the race is concluded and will be based off initial trophy presentations not any post race changes due to penalties.
|
2024-05-23T07:29:00
|
2024-05-26T11:05:13
|
2024-05-26T11:05:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0RH5GmobQZXu65lUteZk
|
Will Germany recognize the State of Palestine by the end of 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria
1. Definition: Official recognition involves the German government's formal declaration or diplomatic note acknowledging Palestine as a sovereign state.
2. Source: Confirmation through credible sources such as official German government statements, major news outlets, or international diplomatic records.
3. Timing: Recognition must occur before 2025, German time.
Similar market
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GazDownright/will-germany-recognize-the-state-of-b158182bb5a4)
|
2024-05-23T06:53:25
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-12-31T05:36:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E2bt4Pf7xIHFgBC6nyWb
|
Is OpenAI building a search engine?
|
This resolves as NO if by the end of 2024 there is no evidence of a search engine feature in ChatGPT. NO would expect an absence of evidence including any mention by @Sama, official Twitter announcements, blog posts, FAQs in Help content, a search feature in ChatGPT itself, partnerships with publishers for real-time information, or any other confirmation that would dispel the rumors of a search engine.
This resolves to YES if there is an official announcement, ChatGPT no longer relying primarily on Bing for results (60% or more searches using non-Bing), product features, partnerships, or other demonstrative materials indicating that ChatGPT sources real-time information for answering questions.
Search engine definition: A search engine is a software system designed to search for information on the World Wide Web by processing user queries and returning relevant results from its database or index of web pages.
As of May 2024, ChatGPT uses a browser tool with Bing to index potential websites. A key limitation is Bing’s unreliability in providing accurate answers about news events within the last 24 hours.
A simple test: Ask ChatGPT about a recent headline from the past 4 hours covered by major news outlets—for example, the death of the Iranian president, Scarlett Johansson’s lawsuit, Rabbit R1 fraud, signs of GPT-5 as AGI, or Tesla Optimus being sold exclusively in Texas.
|
2024-05-23T02:31:54
|
2024-07-25T14:21:37
|
2024-07-25T14:21:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gffoEWwKUc5NIG4cYgZH
|
Will Trump and Biden shake hands at the first debate in June?
|
This market resolves YES if there is footage of Trump and Biden shaking hands at their first debate in June.
This market is intended to be about the scheduled CNN debate on June 27th, but would also include if that debate were rescheduled or cancelled or cancelled and replaced with another debate, so long as it happens in June 2024.
If they do not shake hands on the day of their debate, or if there is no debate in June, this market resolves NO. This market will be scheduled to close just before the debate, and will resolve the day after.
From Wikipedia:
A handshake is a globally widespread, brief greeting or parting tradition in which two people grasp one of each other's hands, and in most cases, it is accompanied by a brief up-and-down movement of the grasped hands.
|
2024-05-22T21:03:29
|
2024-06-27T15:00:00
|
2024-06-27T19:49:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TNgfUTol7uMB9v5J64Il
|
Will a hurricane that strikes the United States in 2024 cause over $150 billion worth of damage?
|
[tweet]This question resolves Yes if the total estimate of damage from a 2024 hurricane by the National Weather Service meets or exceeds $150,000,000,000. This would put such a storm roughly in the same league as 2005's Hurricane Katrina, adjusted for inflation.
If repurcussions and estimates are still volatile at the end of the year, up to six months (but hopefully less) will be added to this question to allow the estimate time to stabilize. This market does not require the hurricane to maintain hurricane status for any particular length of time, or to stay in a certain category during landfall, or for the NWS's estimate to include or exclude non-American property.
Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments!
Update 2024-28-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Default Resolution Date: The market will resolve No on January 1st unless an extension is agreed upon.
Extension: The resolution period can be extended through January 31st if holders express skepticism about the estimates.
|
2024-05-22T20:53:39
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:04:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TyfGW3MtqvNDnmLwt766
|
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 38% before the Election? 🇺🇸🗳️🗽
|
His approval is currently ~39%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
it appears as if it was only below 38% once; in December of Last Year
RESOLUtion
Resolves Yes if Biden's Approval rating goes below 38% at any point prior to the November election -
|
2024-05-22T19:11:55
|
2024-05-29T15:52:45
|
2024-05-29T15:52:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XIRmizFSaOOkMfkgA8Xm
|
Will there be a major deepfake during this UK General Election campaign?
|
The GE has been called for the 4th of July 2024.
From now until then, will there be a major deepfake scandal of a major British politician involved with the campaigns.
Major is defined as:
over 3 million views on Twitter
OR over 50k likes on Instagram or Tiktok
AND:
Covered by at least 3 national news outlets
This deepfake has to be made to make a politician look bad eg by faking what they say or do in a negative manner.
This does NOT include videos/audios that are satire, but that are intended to be taken seriously (will be judged by me but should be obvious)
|
2024-05-22T19:05:19
|
2024-07-10T08:42:25
|
2024-07-10T08:42:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6FLDKNuZTyxlWBcerGxD
|
Will the UK government change the conditions of graduate visa before the next elections?
|
Prime minister Sunak expressed plans to cancel the graduate visa either completely or partially. He now seems to have reconsidered after a backlash from the cabinet:
https://www.theguardian.com/education/article/2024/may/21/indian-students-union-urges-uk-to-retain-graduate-visas
Will he still push (successfully) for some change to the visa? The question resolves Yes if the conditions of the graduate visa change while the current government is still in office. The change has to be substantial enough to be reported by at least two major news sources (e.g. guardian, times, BBC etc). Otherwise, the question resolves to No.
|
2024-05-22T17:38:06
|
2024-07-05T18:23:02
|
2024-07-05T18:23:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-svlyDFpTb96j160uQGqQ
|
Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on July 13th?
|
Resolution Source:
[image]This market resolves on the ElectionBettingOdds average of each party's odds to win the US Presidential Election in 2024. This is currently an average of Polymarket, Betfair, PredictIt, and Smarkets.
This market will close the night before July 13th, and then will be resolved based on the data displayed the day after.
If the Republican Party odds are above the Democratic Party odds for the entirety of July 13th (In Pacific Time), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
Display errors, bugs, etc will be disregarded. However, updates to the average due to deliberate methodological changes and markets being added or removed from the average will still count for resolution.
If the entire page becomes indefinitely unavailable for some reason, the average for the resolution date will be manually calculated by Manifold.
|
2024-05-22T16:01:14
|
2024-07-12T23:59:00
|
2024-07-15T10:06:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xA5k0OoRuGyVgZ7TrGJ1
|
Trump vs Biden Odds: Will Republicans lead in the Election Betting Odds party average on June 15th?
|
Resolution Source:
[image]This market resolves on the ElectionBettingOdds average of each party's odds to win the US Presidential Election in 2024. This is currently an average of Polymarket, Betfair, PredictIt, and Smarkets.
This market will close the night before June 15th, and then will be resolved based on the data displayed the day after.
If the Republican Party odds are above the Democratic Party odds for the entirety of June 15th (In Pacific Time), this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
Display errors, bugs, etc will be disregarded. However, updates to the average due to deliberate methodological changes and markets being added or removed from the average will still count for resolution.
If the entire page becomes indefinitely unavailable for some reason, the average for the resolution date will be manually calculated by Manifold.
|
2024-05-22T15:48:58
|
2024-06-14T23:59:00
|
2024-06-17T06:51:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qLUjXv9SRfIBWhm9cIWo
|
By 2025, will OpenAI employees call for Sam Altman resignation in a letter?
|
This question resolves to Yes if before 2025, more than one current OpenAI employee signs a letter calling for Sam Altman to no longer be the CEO of OpenAI.
Resolves No if Sam Altman remains the CEO of OpenAI on January 1, 2025, and no such letter exists.
Resolves N/A if Sam Altman ceases to be the CEO of OpenAI without any such letter existing.
(It doesn’t matter who the letter is addressed to as long as it calls for a change
|
2024-05-22T15:29:44
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-03-04T09:40:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ebxquZuuhZ9qhNJVfIky
|
Do Manifold users believe President Ebrahim Raisi was assassinated?
|
The Yes and No votes to the following poll resolves this question (unsure is not counted):
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Haws/was-president-ebrahim-raisi-assassi?r=SGF3cw)
|
2024-05-22T13:33:36
|
2024-06-21T20:59:00
|
2024-06-24T10:00:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y4gMmrkZIohPqNsoZvOM
|
Taylor Swift #1 album for 10 or more weeks in a row?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Taylor Swift's "The Tortured Poets Society" album is in the number 1 position on the Billboard 200 chart for 10 or more consecutive weeks following its drop. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The first week following the album drop is defined as the first Billboard week that takes into account Taylor Swift's "The Tortured Poets Society" album.
This market will immediately resolve to “No” if the album dropped off #1 before reaching 10 consecutive weeks at #1 following its drop.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).
|
2024-05-22T12:12:33
|
2024-06-29T14:59:00
|
2024-07-01T12:21:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZmJx6CZSe7boyJxZmp1l
|
Will “Things Can Only Get Better” re-enter the UK Top 10 Singles or Album charts before July ends?
|
D:Ream’s Things Can Only Get Better was the anthem of New Labour’s 1997 election. With Labour looking likely to win the next election, the song experiencing a slight renaissance through the last series of The Crown, being played during Rishi Sunak’s speech calling the election, and D:Ream performing at Glastonbury the week before the election, the question must be asked: Will things get better for Things Can Only Get Better?
Resolves YES if either the original D:Ream version of Things Can Only Get Better, or a cover of that song, or a song that heavily samples the song, enters the UK top 10 singles or album chart at any time between market start and the end of July.
Charts will be as per Official Charts Singles and Album listings.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/V6QhAZckY8w?si=6paUxqig-SJ10KHr)
|
2024-05-22T11:56:58
|
2024-07-27T15:59:00
|
2024-07-29T01:08:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX
|
Will the OpenAI board fire Sam Altman again in 2024?
|
The OpenAI board fired Sam Altman in 2023, see Wikipedia. While Sam Altman returned, he is a habitual liar and many problems with him have not been resolved, so it is conceivable that the board may fire him again, to uphold the non-profit mission.
Will this happen in 2024?
|
2024-05-22T05:02:37
|
2025-01-01T06:59:00
|
2025-01-16T11:06:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gAy5uUyPKvn64DAwgrEi
|
Will Rishi Sunak announce general election TODAY?
|
There is speculation that Rishi Sunak will call a general election today:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2024/may/22/labour-tories-police-prison-overcrowding-crisis-pmqs-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-uk-politics-latest-updates
Will he do so?
Any of the following will be sufficient for the market to resolve to YES:
Rishi Sunak announces that he will be asking the King to dissolve Parliament for a general election
Rishi Sunak announces the date for a general election
A government official acting on behalf of Rishi Sunak announces a date or announces a general election
The King (or his spokesperson) announces that he is dissolving Parliament for a general election
If this does not happen by midnight tonight, this market resolves to NO.
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
|
2024-05-22T04:00:09
|
2024-05-22T09:21:46
|
2024-05-22T09:21:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ES9ZPQVbfoKkFIHGyXT8
|
Biden takes drug test before Trump debate?
|
On May 17 it was reported that Trump wants Biden to take a drug test before the first debate, stating "I'm going to demand a drug test. I don't want him coming in like at the State of the Union. He was as high as a kite!"
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Biden takes a drug test before his first debate with Trump, currently scheduled to take place on June 27. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
If no debate occurs before the election, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be information from President Biden and the White House, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.
|
2024-05-21T20:43:13
|
2024-06-27T14:59:00
|
2024-06-29T17:54:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-37Bq02gFIhqLPZWhlRPr
|
Will Twenty One Pilots' new album, 'Clancy', have a rating >3.0 on rateyourmusic.com, one month after release?
|
Twenty One Pilots will release their new album 'Clancy' on Spotify and Apple Music on 24.05.2024. Will the new album be rated >3.0 on the website rateyourmusic.com.
Their profile page and past album ratings can be found here: https://rateyourmusic.com/artist/twenty-one-pilots.
This question will be resolved on 25.06.2024 CET, approx. one month after the release of the album.
|
2024-05-21T07:54:51
|
2024-06-25T14:56:50
|
2024-06-25T14:56:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Sq68bgenVZJM7pqoUgL
|
Will Trump announce his VP selection by the end of June?
|
Will Donald Trump announce his selection for vice president by the end of June?
YES: Donald Trump selects a running mate during the month of May or June
NO: It is July 1, 2024, and Trump has not yet named his VP
note 1: if Trump drops out of race, dies, or in any other way not a candidate anymore during the month of May or June, this will resolve NO; unless he named a running mate before dropping out, in which case this resolves YES
note 2: if Trump selects a VP, but then changes his mind and de-selects that person, this question will still resolve YES because he did name someone
note 3: if Trump goes completely insane and selects his imaginary friend, an animal, an extraterrestrial, or an inanimate object for vice president, this question will still resolve YES, because no one said the VP must be human
|
2024-05-20T19:50:29
|
2024-06-30T19:01:10
|
2024-06-30T19:01:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XiSVdk1SK7iN8TlCz7h2
|
Will a decisive verdict in the Trump trial cause a 5pt change in Biden's odds in the subsequent 7 days?
|
After the day a conclusive verdict is announced, I'll consider the average through the 7th day vs the average probability in the day prior to the trial.
If the trial is inconclusive, this market resolves to N/A.
I'll consider Lars' market.
I won't bet.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres)
|
2024-05-20T18:44:33
|
2024-06-08T10:51:45
|
2024-06-08T10:51:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UpfNoFH6Q6sU3HAZ2SzR
|
Will Scarlett Johansson sue OpenAI and/or Sam Altman personally in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if Johansson or a legal entity representing her interests (such as a company owning her relevant intellectual property) sues OpenAI and/or Altman, in any capacity, by the end of 2024. Arbitration claims will count; mediations will not.
|
2024-05-20T18:12:19
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:37:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tSQM56njYPG9Fpby3z6j
|
Will Sam Altman be fired or resign as OpenAI CEO before July 2024?
|
OpenAI has had a rough couple of days.
If Sam Altman stops being CEO of OpenAI at any point between market creation and market close on June 30th, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, this market resolves NO. In an edge case where the resolution cannot be determined, this market may resolve to 50%.
A situation like last fall in which it is reported that Altman was fired but negotiations for his return began immediately would still resolve this market YES, regardless of whether formal paperwork for his removal is signed or not.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting.
|
2024-05-20T16:16:51
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-04T11:50:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HDZ137x2KzqiOYXGPRPs
|
Will proof emerge that OpenAI's "Sky" voice was trained on Scarlett Johansson's voice?
|
Resolves based on the spirit of the question. If no evidence emerges either way by close, resolves NO. Close date will be extended if seems likely evidence will emerge later (for instance ongoing legal proceeding).
Edge cases: If the voice model was trained on general voice data that included her voice, and then finetuned on a different person's voice, that would resolve no.
|
2024-05-20T15:52:08
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T07:56:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E0edSLrDpEBvWiu5vsbF
|
Will Scarlett Johansson receive money from OpenAI as a settlement, compensation, or damages by the end of 2024?
|
Will resolves YES if this is confirmed by both parties, even if the exact amount is not disclosed.
Will resolve YES if they donate to a charity in her name or of her choice.
|
2024-05-20T15:27:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T19:36:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EAEba3xu2gNtMdA7UqNa
|
Will OpenAI re-add the "Sky" voice before August 2024?
|
OpenAI recently announced they were "pausing" the Sky voice for gpt4o. Will it be reinstated as it previously was by August?
To resolve as Yes, the voice must broadly sound the same as it did before OpenAI removed it.
|
2024-05-20T15:06:24
|
2024-08-01T04:09:24
|
2024-08-01T04:09:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OgH32Rz4nj5AlmL8Iiry
|
Will the new Tesla compensation package for Elon Musk be approved by the shareholders on June 13?
|
It has to get a simple majority vote, excluding the shares of Elon and Kimbal Musk.
|
2024-05-20T10:18:11
|
2024-06-13T06:55:20
|
2024-06-13T06:55:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GGkh13Qg0lo3TAnLDsr2
|
Will Biden's FiveThirtyEight approval rating go below 35% before the Election?
|
His approval is currently 38.7%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
his lowest ever approval thus far appears to be ~37.7%
RESOLUtion
Resolves Yes if Biden's Approval rating goes below 35% at any point prior to the November election -
|
2024-05-20T07:37:14
|
2024-11-05T22:59:59
|
2024-11-05T22:59:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qnsbS6y0w3DRsJhireJe
|
Will Dominic Cummings's new political party have any success in the 2024 UK general election?
|
There has been plenty of media coverage of Dominic Cummings's plan to start a new political party:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/09/dominic-cummings-unveils-plans-for-new-party-replace-tories/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/05/09/dominic-cummings-unveils-plans-for-new-party-replace-tories/
Will he set up this party? Will they get any votes in the next general election?
The market will resolve to YES if his new party manages any of the following in the 2024 general election:
They win 2% or more of the vote
They win 2 or more MPs
They come second (or even first) in at least 10 seats
They win 10% or more of the vote in at least 20 seats
If Cummings gets involved in an existing established party such as Reform UK, that will not count. If he gets involved with a minor party (which has not yet polled at 2% or higher in any UK poll at the time of this market creation) and they achieve the results above, that will count.
|
2024-05-20T07:25:55
|
2024-06-07T11:31:58
|
2024-06-07T11:31:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6i7v7PcXGKp7LonbsKNs
|
Will Saudi Arabia king Salman live in the end of 2024?
|
He is sick and old (88).
|
2024-05-19T22:45:46
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T14:03:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6NoBjdjxUsD1nJRuTng0
|
Will RFK Jr. be approved for Secret Service protection before August 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-19T18:57:23
|
2024-07-15T13:04:09
|
2024-07-15T13:04:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xkvfButiI1M4Y0u3mqtT
|
Will there be any upsets in the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
(As of the time of this writing, May 19, 2024:)
According to other Manifold markets, every state and elector-awarding district has a >80% chance of voting for the same person in the 2024 election as they did in the 2020 election, except for the following swing states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and North Carolina.
If any state, other than those seven, votes for a candidate in 2024 who is not the same candidate (or from the same party as the candidate) that they voted for in 2020, resolves YES. The same applies to other elector-awarding districts (DC and each individual district in Nebraska and Maine). Otherwise, resolves NO.
Resolution is based on the official winner of the vote in that state or district; "faithless electors" do not change the outcome of this market. If there are challenges to the official count of the vote, I will still resolve based on the official count, unless there is a legally mandated recount (as in, if there is a case like Bush v. Gore and the Supreme Court rules the opposite way that they did in 2000).
|
2024-05-19T16:40:19
|
2024-11-06T15:18:05
|
2024-11-06T15:18:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ICbJ7XOVucTRJ0rAdPz4
|
Will Valve announce Half-Life 3, Portal 3, Left 4 Dead 3, or Team Fortress 3 before July 23rd?
|
Will Valve finally break the curse and officially announce one of these long-anticipated threequels is in active development? If this happens before July 23rd (in Seattle time), this market resolves YES.
An announced game does not need to have to have the exact title of "[Game Name] 3" for this market to resolve YES, but it is required to have the number 3 in the title and be announced as the next entry in the Half-Life, Portal, Left 4 Dead, or Team Fortress series.
It must be an official announcement that the game is in active development (or already finished) with confirmation of the title, but no other details are required.
The announcement of "Half-Life 2: Episode Three" resolves YES, as does "Half-Life 3: Alyx's Revenge". However, "Half-Life Alyx 2" would not be sufficient for a YES resolution, even if the game was set after the events of Half Life 2, because the title is required to include the number 3 to resolve this market.
An announcement of a bundle like "The Orange Box 2" which is confirmed to include any of these four games would also be sufficient to resolve this market to YES.
|
2024-05-19T15:23:45
|
2024-07-22T23:59:00
|
2024-07-27T15:05:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TyMs0YVQuf9TRIf4fpO5
|
Will Israel (or allies) be shown to be responsibility for Iranian president helicopter crash? 🇮🇱 🚁 🇮🇷
|
On Sunday May 19th Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi's helicopter crashed.
Israel is reporting his death (not confirmed) and denied responsibility.
https://deepnewz.com/israel/iranian-president-raisi-reportedly-dies-helicopter-crash
Market will resolve "Yes" if Israel claims responsibility or there is are many credible media reports of Israeli or allied attack on the helicopter by July 1st 2024.
Likely "No" resolutions would be an accident, mechanical failure, or an attack by Iranian or non-US non-Israeli adversaries to the president.
[image]
|
2024-05-19T13:10:38
|
2024-05-27T12:06:54
|
2024-05-27T12:06:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZS3WO9kPXUYSDsN0SHTs
|
Will Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi be confirmed dead by July 1st 2024? 🚁🇮🇷
|
On Sunday May 19th:
"Iranian rescue teams have found the wreckage of a helicopter carrying President Ebrahim Raisi, according to state television and Reuters. The extensive search efforts, lasting over 5 hours, led to the discovery, but there is no word on casualties at this point. The search for survivors continues, with at least two survivors reported found. Western sources are estimating that President Raisi did not survive the crash, though official confirmation is pending."
https://deepnewz.com/culture/iranian-president-raisi-s-crashed-helicopter-found-rescue-2
Market will resolve "Yes" if confirmed by Iranian official source, or a preponderance of media. Market set for July 1st to leave lots of time for confirmation.
|
2024-05-19T13:00:44
|
2024-05-20T09:55:39
|
2024-05-20T09:55:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0L981aL2uOI17I12f1hV
|
Was there foul play involved in the crash of Ebrahim Raisi?
|
The President of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, and the foreign minister are missing in a helicopter crash. Will it come to light that this was caused by foul play before July 30th? If no strong evidence of foul is confirmed by then, I will close as no. This might require a judgment call, so I will not participate.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/19/iran-helicopter-accident-live-president-fm-on-missing-aircraft
|
2024-05-19T12:52:53
|
2024-07-30T23:59:00
|
2024-08-01T20:53:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3PhdA8BeEWwiXfJ7M1N0
|
Will Hollow Knight Silksong have a release date or window announced before August 1st, 2024?
|
This market resolves yes if there is an official release date or release window announced for Hollow Knight: Silksong before August 1st. A release window will only count if it is as narrow as a quarter/season, like "Fall 2024", "Q1 2025", or "December 2024". A surprise release would also resolve this market YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
There may be no E3 this year, but there are a lot of gaming events at which this announcement might happen!
[image]
|
2024-05-19T12:52:41
|
2024-07-31T23:59:00
|
2024-08-04T03:51:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2cDTecEOpqfBnlApIIF
|
Will Hollow Knight: Silksong have a release date or window announced before June 11th, 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if there is an official release date or release window announced for Hollow Knight: Silksong before June 11th. Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
A release window will only count if it is as narrow as a quarter/season, like "Fall 2024", "Q1 2025", or "December 2024". A surprise release before June 11th would also resolve this market YES.
There may be no E3 this year, but there are a lot of similiar gaming showcases at which this announcement might happen!
[image]
|
2024-05-19T12:49:52
|
2024-06-10T23:59:00
|
2024-06-11T11:40:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WDcNYIeRptPRqNK4VDYz
|
Would Nicolás Maduro Win the Venezuelan presidential election on the 28 of July 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-19T12:23:08
|
2024-07-28T21:58:03
|
2024-07-28T21:58:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D5zZSQmtNjIo6sgvjK4z
|
Will Iran have a new president in power by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-19T10:26:17
|
2024-07-08T08:03:28
|
2024-07-08T08:03:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
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