id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-30008 | Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, or Song of the... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:24:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30007 | Will Apple stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple remains below $237.49 continuously through December 31,... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30006 | Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024? | In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Ye... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-08T16:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30005 | Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025? | Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victo... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T12:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-30004 | Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs wins the 2024 CMA Award for Entertainer of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-30003 | Will Alabama have 2.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Drought worsens with little change in the weather pattern expected
](https://www.wdhn.com/weather/drought-worsens-with-little-change-in-the-weather-pattern-expected/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/alabama) lists greater than or ... | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29947 | Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024? | The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock mark... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29946 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix? | At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech ... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:16:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29945 | Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Morgan Wallen wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, Song of the Year, Music Video of th... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:22:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29944 | Will Helldivers 2 win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| [All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Helldivers 2 wins an award at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards for at least 1 of the following: Best Multiplayer Game, Console Game ... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T00:08:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29943 | Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Trump Media & Technology Group remains below $79.38 continuou... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:58:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29942 | Will Elon Musk or Dana White be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025? | CNN: [Trump’s allies are already jockeying for high-powered spots in his administration](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/transition-donald-trump-jockeying/index.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk and/or Dana White are announced as having been offe... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29941 | Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024? | From the resolution source: "The Vail snow report for Nov 01 is a 0" base depth with 0 of 33 lifts open. Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T16:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29940 | Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024? | As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model 3 for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $43,000. If the price is greater than or equal to $43,000, this question resolves as **No**. On of after De... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T19:18:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29939 | Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29937 | Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024... | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T10:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29903 | Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024? | The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes,... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-11-21T11:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29902 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | [The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across ... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T12:00:00Z | 2024-12-13T15:23:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29901 | Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025? | North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic coll... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29900 | Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024? | [Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies ... | 2024-11-14T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-04T22:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29887 | Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024? | In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elec... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T19:03:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29886 | Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Jelly Roll wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Coun... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29885 | Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as ... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:26:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29884 | Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO? | In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1,... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29883 | Will the world remain "normal" through 2024, according to the specified criteria? | As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community:
- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.
- A [10% reduction in the human pop... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29882 | Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?
| The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days.
In order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly l... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T00:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29881 | Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?
| In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).
The possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukra... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T13:11:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29880 | Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024? | As of October 8, 2024, George Soros was ranked 424th on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) George Soros is ranked 400th or better on December... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29875 | Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2025? | [Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-count... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29874 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs is less than 585 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North Am... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T01:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29873 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs is greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29,... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T01:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29872 | Will the number of active US drilling rigs exceed 590 on November 29, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs exceeds 590 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North America... | 2024-11-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T14:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29798 | Will ModivCare file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | ModivCare is a healthcare services company. Recently it has [faced challenges](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240916259605/en/Modivcare-Provides-Financial-Update) with respect to its debt covenants.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if ModivCare, Inc. files any petition for bankruptc... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29797 | Will IBM raise its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025? | IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29796 | Will Matt Eberflus cease to be the Chicago Bears head coach before January 1, 2025? | Yahoo Sports: [Bears fans are once again fed up with Matt Eberflus, coaching staff](https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-fans-once-again-fed-222243082.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Matt Eberflus is no longer head coach of the Chicago Bears according to [credible sour... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T20:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29795 | On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on November 29, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Met... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T12:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29794 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $100 billion as of January 1, 2025? | Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been v... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29793 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion as of January 1, 2025? | Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been v... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29792 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion as of January 1, 2025? | Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been v... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29791 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than zero and less than $40 billion as of January 1, 2025? | Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been v... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29790 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than or equal to the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025? | Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been v... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29789 | Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:38:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29788 | Will 10 or 11 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:38:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29787 | Will 8 or 9 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29786 | Will 6 or 7 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29785 | Will 4 or 5 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T21:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29784 | Will 0-3 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024? | Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 ... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T20:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29783 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Sing... | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-09T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-07T12:50:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29703 | Will West Virginia have 1.4 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [West Virginia facing worst drought in at least two decades](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/west-virginia-facing-worst-drought-least-two-decades)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/west-virginia) lists greater tha... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T01:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29702 | Will Luke Combs win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Luke Combs wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Coun... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29701 | Will Astro Bot win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| [Voting Is Now Open in the 42nd Golden Joystick Awards](https://www.gamespress.com/Voting-Is-Now-Open-in-the-42nd-Golden-Joystick-Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins an award at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards for Best Audio Design, Best Soundtract, or Console Game of the Y... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T00:08:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29700 | Will John Thune succeed Mitch McConnell as Republican Leader of the US Senate? | At the time of this question, Senate Minority Whip John Thune is widely considered the frontrunner to succeed Mitch McConnell. See e.g., Punchbowl News: [Thune hits the trail for GOP candidates — and his leadership bid](https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/thune-campaigns-for-leadership-bid-in-indiana/)
Resolution Cr... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T18:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29699 | Will either major party candidate in California’s 13th Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024? | In the 2022 midterms, CA-13 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with Democrat Adam Gray [not conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/john-duarte-house-election-california-republican/index.html) to Republican John Duarte until December 3, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to coun... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T22:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29698 | Will Merck stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Merck remains below $134.63 continuously through December 31,... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29697 | Will Thomas Massie be announced as the nominee for Secretary of Agriculture before January 1, 2025? | [Massie signals he is open to agriculture role in Trump administration](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4977627-massie-agriculture-role-trump/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Donald Trump and/or his transition team announces Thomas Massie as the nominee for Sec... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29696 | Will the Jackson Hole ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 29, 2024? | From the resolution source: "Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, located in western Wyoming’s Teton Village, is situated just 15 miles from the Jackson Hole Airport and Grand Teton National Park"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Jackson Hole Snow Report, currently located [here](https:... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T12:26:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29695 | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 January 2025? | Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angel... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29694 | On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public? | This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the developmen... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:56:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29640 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft? | Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in September 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T22:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29639 | Before January 1, 2025, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO? | Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares.
Resolution Criteria: This question will re... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29638 | Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2025? | The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcn... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29637 | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2025? | On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted a... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T12:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29635 | Will Kalshi outrank Coinbase in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024? | On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. A day later, Coinbase had again taken the lead over the Kalshi app, so this question looks at whet... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29634 | Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2025?
| As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers ... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29633 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?
| [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-01T23:06:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29632 | Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025? | At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Y... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T12:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29631 | Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores? | Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; the two-legged semifinals for the current tournament take place between October 22nd and 30th, with the single-match final taking place on November 30 at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Resolution Criteria: This questio... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T14:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29630 | On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
| This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the developmen... | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29609 | Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025? | Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angel... | 2024-11-07T03:30:00Z | 2025-02-28T12:00:00Z | 2025-03-01T00:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29600 | Will the USDA-posted recall of Hickory Hollow's ready-to-eat jerky products be closed before December 1, 2024? | According to the Alabama Media Group on [September 4, 2024](https://www.al.com/life/2024/09/6229-pounds-of-jerky-from-alabama-company-recalled.html), "Ready-to-eat jerky products from an Alabama-based company are being recalled. The products were shipped to retail locations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina,... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T00:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29599 | Will Noodles & Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | Noodles & Company, a fast-casual diner founded in 1995, has faced years of negative net income since the pandemic (except for a small profit in 2021), and faces increased debt and interest expenses. The company has recently been [reported](https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/noodles-company-considers-closing-around-20-unde... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29595 | Will Nvidia earnings for Q3 2024 exceed $0.74 per share? | Consensus earnings estimates are for an average of $0.74 per share, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/).
Resolution Criteria: This questions resolves as **Yes** if the reported diluted earnings per share of Nvidia, Inc., for the third quarter of 2024 are >$0.74, based on the e... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T14:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29594 | Will Robinhood officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025? | According to [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-revolut-explore-joining-170-170622285.html), "Companies from Robinhood Markets Inc. to Revolut Ltd. are considering launching stablecoins, betting that stricter regulations in Europe and elsewhere will finally loosen Tether Holdings Ltd.’s grip on the ra... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29593 | Will US airline passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA? | The Thanksgiving season is one of the busiest times of the year for travel, and 2024 [is expected](https://www.crossroadstoday.com/lifestyle/the-busiest-travel-days-around-thanksgiving/article_1dc81c6f-58c2-543c-a858-ca738283d6f1.html) to break records..
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if total ... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T11:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29592 | Will Sadiq Khan cease to be mayor of London before January 1, 2025? | Mayor Kahn faces periodic calls to resign, such as from foreign policy analyst and former aide to Margaret Thatcher [Nile Gardner](https://x.com/NileGardiner/status/1834588669149110754) in September 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Sadiq Kahn ceases to be mayor of London, England, at an... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29591 | Will the CDC report more than 80% of the tested influenza sequences as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the week ending Dec 21, 2024? | Influenza pandemics typically [come from](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2928832/) Influenza A, particularly from a sub-type against which much of the human population lacks much immunity. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses-types.html):
>Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses a... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T20:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29590 | Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Dec 7, 2024 be more than 2,000? | According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-06T22:17:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29589 | Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Nov 23, 2024 be more than 2,000? | According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-22T12:48:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29588 | Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2025?
| As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, A... | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29550 | Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2025?
| "Slaughterbots" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.
The term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (F... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29549 | Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?
| *related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)
More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:24:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29548 | Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research before January 1, 2025?
| Resolution Criteria: In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):
> I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is t... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29547 | Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2024, according to Forbes? | As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#4... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29546 | Will Oregon voters approve Measure 118, which would initiate a universal basic income in the state, funded by corporate tax? | Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 118, Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate for Residents Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_118,_Corporate_Tax_Revenue_Rebate_for_Residents_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Oregon Measure 118 is approved in the 2024 general election... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:35:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29545 | Will Donald Trump Lose in New York State by under 6.0 points in the 2024 election? | In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, won by 6.39 points over her Republican opponent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential popular vote in NYS by 23.1 points. On October 27, 2024, Donald Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T12:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29544 | Will Kamala Harris be president before January 1, 2025? | *Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-fi... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29542 | Before January 5, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US? | As of the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for October 26, 2024, the KP lineage had a combined estimate of 68% of sequenced variants in the United States for the two-week period ending on that date. As an [offshoot](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kp2-now... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T13:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29541 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC'... | 2024-11-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T15:30:00Z | 2025-01-07T01:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29521 | Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024? | Historically, winners of important elections are congratulated by foreign leaders as a form of diplomatic courtesy. However, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and both China and Russia have raised questions about whether their respective leaders will maintain this tradition in 2024. After the 2020 U.S. election, f... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-30T23:59:00Z | 2024-11-07T19:30:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29499 | Will there be greater than or equal to 3,900 emojis on December 31, 2024? | July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform.
Emojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of the yearly Unicode standard is in a very stable state, so that the total number of Emojis ca... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29498 | Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024? | As of October 8, 2024, Altman's net worth was listed as exactly $1 billion, according to Forbes.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to his [Forbes Profile](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-altman/) Sam Altman's net worth is higher than $1 billion on December 31, 2024. For purposes of... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29497 | In Nebraska will Initiative 439, the Right to Abortion Initiative, receive more votes than Initiative 434, the Prohibit Abortions After the 1st Trimester Amendment? | Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 434, Prohibit Abortions After the First Trimester Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska_Initiative_434,_Prohibit_Abortions_After_the_First_Trimester_Amendment_(2024)); Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 439, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebra... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29496 | Will the USDA-posted recall of Perdue Foods LLC's Frozen, Ready-To-Eat Chicken Breast Nugget and Tender Products be closed before November 16, 2024? | According to NBC News on [August 17, 2024](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/perdue-recalls-frozen-ready-eat-chicken-nuggets-tenders-possible-metal-rcna167004), "'FSIS is concerned that some product may be in consumers’ freezers,' the agency said. 'Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to c... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T14:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29495 | Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | Hydrogen fuel cell company Plug Power has faced financial challenges recently. From its recent SEC filings: "At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern."
Resolution Criteria: This... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29493 | Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 World Chess Championship? | As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wra... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:14:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29492 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!
Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at ... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T20:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29491 | Will the US State Department approve more than 25 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024? | The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales ... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29490 | Will the US State Department approve more than 20 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024? | The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales ... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T11:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29488 | Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noti... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T21:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29487 | Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noti... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T21:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
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