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meta-30008
|
Will Chris Stapleton win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Chris Stapleton wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, or Song of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:24:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30007
|
Will Apple stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?
|
Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple remains below $237.49 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history/).
Fine Print: In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30006
|
Will the Hudson Bay Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 8, 2024?
|
In 2023 a [historic drought](https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/el-nino-drought-bc-interior-ski-hills-1.7043016) caused [delays](https://www.interior-news.com/local-news/lack-of-snow-forces-hudson-bay-mountain-resort-to-delay-opening-7116185) in opening.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Hudson Bay Mountain Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/british-columbia/hudson-bay-mountain/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after December 8, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-08T16:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30005
|
Will Dogecoin close at $0.420 a share before January 1, 2025?
|
Dogecoin's intraday price reached $0.43457 on November 12, 2024. See also The Economic Times: [Dogecoin outperforms Bitcoin and Ether, rises 145% since Trump's US election victory](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/dogecoin-outperforms-bitcoin-and-ether-rises-145-since-trumps-us-election-victory/articleshow/115209313.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price of Dogecoin according to [this Coingecko link](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/dogecoin/historical_data) reaches $0.420 a share at any point after the launch of this question and before January 1, 2025. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Intraday prices do not count; this question resolves based on daily closing prices. No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be **annulled** if it still cannot be accessed.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T12:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30004
|
Will Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs win the 2024 CMA Award forEntertainer of the Year?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Lainey Wilson or Luke Combs wins the 2024 CMA Award for Entertainer of the Year. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:23:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-30003
|
Will Alabama have 2.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[Drought worsens with little change in the weather pattern expected
](https://www.wdhn.com/weather/drought-worsens-with-little-change-in-the-weather-pattern-expected/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/alabama) lists greater than or equal to 2.0 million Alabama residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 2.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29947
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up in December 2024?
|
The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of December 2024 is higher than that of the final trading day of November 2024.
Fine Print: The "close" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29946
|
Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Netflix?
|
At the launch of this question, Tech Crunch did not have Netflix listed on its tracker as having had any material layoffs in 2024. In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Netflix appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. "
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:16:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29945
|
Will Morgan Wallen win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Morgan Wallen wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Male Vocalist of the Year, Single of the Year, Song of the Year, Music Video of the Year, or Musical Event of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:22:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29944
|
Will Helldivers 2 win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
|
[All the Golden Joystick Award 2024 Nominees](https://www.gfinityesports.com/article/all-the-golden-joystick-award-nominees-2024)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Helldivers 2 wins an award at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards for at least 1 of the following: Best Multiplayer Game, Console Game of the Year, or Best Game Trailer. If this does not occur, this queston resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T00:08:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29943
|
Will Trump Media & Technology Group (the owner of Truth Social) stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?
|
Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Trump Media & Technology Group remains below $79.38 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DJT/history/).
Fine Print: In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:58:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29942
|
Will Elon Musk or Dana White be chosen for a paid position within the Trump White House before January 1, 2025?
|
CNN: [Trump’s allies are already jockeying for high-powered spots in his administration](https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/06/politics/transition-donald-trump-jockeying/index.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Elon Musk and/or Dana White are announced as having been offered a salaried federal position within the incoming Trump Administration. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Unpaid roles such as volunteer advisory positions will not count. Any salaried position will count, regardless of whether the person is reported to actually accept the paychecks. This question resolves based on the announcement of him being picked for a role by the incoming Administration, not beginning his duties; therefore requirements such as Senate confirmation will not affect resolution.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29941
|
Will the Alta ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 22, 2024?
|
From the resolution source: "The Vail snow report for Nov 01 is a 0" base depth with 0 of 33 lifts open. Please note ski conditions and snowfall at Vail are sourced directly from the ski resort and are only recorded during the official ski season's opening to closing dates."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Alta Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/utah/alta-ski-area/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after November 22, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T16:56:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29940
|
Will the cheapest new Tesla Model 3 be listed as under $43,000 on December 30, 2024?
|
As of November 11, 2024, this price was $42,490
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 30, 2024, the cheapest Tesla Model 3 for US buyers is offered at the Tesla website for under $43,000. If the price is greater than or equal to $43,000, this question resolves as **No**. On of after December 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will access the Model 3 design page, currently at [this link](https://www.tesla.com/model3/design#overview). They will click on the "Cash" price and uncheck the box to include estimated incentives of $7,500 and 5-year gas savings.
Fine Print: No other resolution source other than Tesla's official website will be considered.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T19:18:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29939
|
Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists ≥3 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of November 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29937
|
Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for November 2024?
|
Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Federal Register, which can be accessed [here](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders/joe-biden/2024), lists exactly 0 executive orders for President Joe Biden for the month of November 2024. If it lists >0, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-29T10:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29903
|
Will the International Criminal Court issue any warrants in November or December 2024?
|
The [International Criminal Court (ICC)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) was founded in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and as of October 2024, it [has indicted](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_people_indicted_in_the_International_Criminal_Court) a total of 63 individuals.
As the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily. In May 2024, the ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan [filled applications](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/statement-icc-prosecutor-karim-aa-khan-kc-applications-arrest-warrants-situation-state) for warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, ex-Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, as well as the now-dead Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Mohammed Deif, and Ismail Haniyeh. As of 11 November 2024, no warrants for these individuals have been issued.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after November 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any individual, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If there are no reports of the ICC issuing any arrest warrants during that period, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Summonses to appear will not count. For more information please see the ICC's [How the Court works](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works), especially the following, under *Investigations*:
>After gathering evidence and identifying a suspect, the Prosecution requests ICC judges to issue:
>1. an arrest warrant: the ICC relies on countries to make arrests and transfer suspects to the ICC; or
>2. a summons to appear: suspects appear voluntarily (if not, an arrest warrant may be issued).
Secret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before January 1, 2025. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before January 1, 2025, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-11-21T11:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29902
|
Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award?
|
[The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across both creative and technical aspects. The nominations for GOTY 2024 are expected to be announced in mid November.
[Astro Bot](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro_Bot) is a 2024 platform video game developed by Team Asobi and published by Sony Interactive Entertainment for the PlayStation 5. It is a sequel to [Astro's Playroom](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astro%27s_Playroom) and the first game featuring the character not to be developed by Japan Studio due to its dissolution. The game was released in celebration of PlayStation's 30th anniversary and, as of November 2024, has sold 1.5 million units. It has received universal acclaim from critics, with a score of 94 on [Metacritic](https://www.metacritic.com/game/astro-bot/), and is widely considered a favourite of for GOTY.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins the Game of the Year award for 2024 at [The Game Awards](https://thegameawards.com/). If the awards ceremony takes place and Astro Bot does not win Game of the Year, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The Game Awards ceremony is [currently scheduled](https://thegameawards.com/watch) for December 12, 2024. Any delays will still count. However, if the ceremony does not take place before January 1, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.
If Astro Bot shares the Game of the Year award it will still count.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-11T12:00:00Z
|
2024-12-13T15:23:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29901
|
Will North Korea deploy military personnel to Ukraine before January 1, 2025?
|
North Korea and Russia have significantly strenghened their military cooperation since the start of the war in Ukraine. In September 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un [visited Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66810830), meeting with President Vladimir Putin to discuss potential military and economic collaboration. In early November 2024, Ukraine [fought](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c14le0p4310o) North Korean troops for the first time, while [more recent reports](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/11/10/europe/russia-north-korea-forces-prepared-kursk-ukraine/index.html) claim that 10,000 [North Korean troops](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_People%27s_Army) will join Russian soldiers in an attempt to take back the Ukraine-occupied region of Kursk.
[Moreover](https://blog.sentinel-team.org/i/151515209/asia)
> South Korean intelligence reports that an agreement between North Korea and Russia includes an annual supply of 600K to 700K tonnes of rice to North Korea, $200M, space technology, and provisions for Russian involvement in potential conflicts on the Korean Peninsula.
However, until November 12, 2024, there have been no reports of North Korean troops in Ukrainian soil.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that at least 100 North Korean troops have entered Ukrainian soil before January 1, 2025.
If no credible reports indicate the simultaneous presence of 100 or more North Korean soldiers in Ukraine, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: - Ukrainian soil is defined based on the pre-2014 internationally recognized borders of Ukraine.
- This question pertains only to personnel who have been members of any of the five branches of North Korea's military forces, the Korean People's Army.
- This question will resolve based on the best information available as of January 7, 2025.
- For purposes of this question, troops will count as North Korean military personnel if they are identified as such by credible sources. This is true even in the event of edge cases such as them wearing non-North Korean insignia, being under the command of Russian officers, or being deployed as part of multinational units.
- Non-combat roles such as logistical support count as well, as long as the North Korean personnel are present on pre-2014 Ukrainian soil.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29900
|
Will Bitcoin dominance exceed 63.0% on any single day in November or December 2024?
|
[Bitcoin (BTC) dominance](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) is a metric used to measure the relative market share of Bitcoin in the overall cryptocurrency sector. It represents the percentage of Bitcoin's total market capitalisation compared to the total market capitalisation of all cryptocurrencies combined. BTC dominance has fluctuated over the years. It reached a low of 38.3% in 2022, but has been steadily rising since, achieving a local peak of 60.0% on November 13, 2024.
The rise could be attributed to multiple factors. The SEC's [approval](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-sec-gives-green-light-options-listing-spot-bitcoin-etfs-nyse-2024-10-18/) of multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 increased accessibility for mainstream investors, drawing significant capital into BTC. Donald Trump's re-election might have further driven the rise in BTC dominance as, according to [the BBC](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c89v1w5lxxqo):
> In the run-up to the election Trump said he would create a strategic bitcoin stockpile and appoint digital asset-friendly financial regulators - spurring expectations that he would strip back regulations on the crypto industry.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 5 January 2025, [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/bitcoin-dominance/) reports a Bitcoin dominance value of 63.1% or higher for any single date in November or December 2024.
Fine Print: - This question is about the daily dominance value and, therefore, resolution will be based on the values that are shown on the graph. To avoid resolving on preliminary values, the most recent value on the graph will not be considered.
- If CoinMarketCap is unavailable or does not report the relevant data between January 1 and January 5, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2024-11-14T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-04T22:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29887
|
Will either major party candidate in California’s 22nd Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?
|
In the 2022 midterms, CA-22 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with the Democratic challenger [conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/22/politics/california-22-valadao-salas/index.html) on November 22, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before December 1, 2024, either the Republican or Democratic candidate concedes the race for California’s 22nd Congressional District, according to credible source reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Subsequent withdrawals of a concession (such as [happened in 2018](https://apnews.com/united-states-house-of-representatives-general-news-house-elections-464da5eba8134d5a93f4504fed811fbc)) will not cause this question to re-resolve.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T19:03:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29886
|
Will Jelly Roll win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Jelly Roll wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29885
|
Will Texas have 15.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
Much of Texas is experiencing varying levels of drought at the time of this question. For example: [Moderate drought spreads across East Texas](https://www.cbs19.tv/article/weather/weather-impact/drought-spreads-across-east-texas/501-c803993d-40df-46a1-9cef-e8d741049647)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/texas) lists greater than or equal to 15.0 million Texas residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 15.0 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:26:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29884
|
Before January 1, 2025, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?
|
In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on January 1, 2024, this question resolves as No.
Anthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29883
|
Will the world remain "normal" through 2024, according to the specified criteria?
|
As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community:
- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.
- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.
- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.
- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.
- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.
- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.
- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2025:
- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.
- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.
- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2025.
- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2025.
- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.
- **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a "World War Three" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.
- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2025.
This question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a "normal" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29882
|
Will a mouse be confirmed to have lived for 2,500 days before January 1, 2025?
|
The longest lived laboratory mouse ever was a growth hormone receptor knockout mouse which lived to approximately 1,800 days old in the lab of Andrzej Bartke at Southern Illinois University. The maximum for normal B6 mice under ideal conditions is 1200 days.
In order for a mouse to live for 2,500 days, it is highly likely that a major breakthrough in rejuvenation of mammalian organisms will have to be achieved, and so this achievement would likely have significant implications for humanity.
Resolution Criteria: This question shall resolve positively if by January 1, 2025, credible media reports state that an individual [laboratory mouse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Laboratory_mouse) of species *Mus musculus* has lived for at least 2,500 days.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T00:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29881
|
Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before January 1, 2025?
|
In the history of Russia, failed military campaigns sometimes triggered large-scale conflicts within Russia. For example, the humiliating defeats of the Russo-Japanese War culminated in the [1905 Russian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution).
The possible defeat of Russia in the Russo-Ukrainian War, combined with the severe economic crisis, may trigger a comparable conflict. For example, a violent coup d'état, a civil war, a revolution, an armed secession movement.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2025, there is a large-scale armed conflict in Russia, according to credible media reports. For this question, a “a large-scale armed conflict” is a conflict which meets these criteria:
* results in at least 1,000 deaths in Russia
* has at least 100 participants directly involved in the killings,
* with the majority of the participants on both sides being Russian citizens.
Some examples of such events from the Russian history include the Russian Revolution, the [Russian Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War), the [First](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Chechen_War) and [Second Chechen Wars](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Chechen_War). We ignore such events if they happen mostly in Crimea or any other territory occupied by Russia since 2014.
Fine Print: In case there are several smaller deadly events (e.g. a series of terrorist attacks), and it's unclear if they should be counted together as one conflict, then we use the following additional criterion:
there should be a page on Wikipedia about the conflict.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T13:11:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29880
|
Will George Soros be ranked in the top 400 richest people in the world on December 31, 2024?
|
As of October 8, 2024, George Soros was ranked 424th on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) George Soros is ranked 400th or better on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29875
|
Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2025?
|
[Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine). In 2023 Ukraine [commenced a counteroffensive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Ukrainian_counteroffensive), though as of October 30, 2023, [Ukraine's gains have been modest](https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-counteroffensive-has-been-slow-but-western-support-remains-strong--even-with-new-war-in-middle-east-215707295.html), and it remains unclear how the controlled territory will shift in the long run.
<iframe src="https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1gg5PBOaPGAuOjX5kCafOgNIBMWW-ZdI&ehbc=2E312F" width="640" height="480"></iframe>
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on January 1, 2025, Russia has de facto control of specific key locations which it currently controls as of October 30, 2023, and also controls two or more additional specified locations that it currently does not. Resolution will be determined according to maps produced by the [Institute for the Study of War](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap) (ISW). The relevant locations are listed below, and also shown in a map embedded in the background section.
Russia must have control of **at least two** of the following locations:
* Mikolaiv: Admiralska St, 20, Mykolaiv, Mykolaiv Oblast, Ukraine, 54000
* Zaporizhzhia: Sobornyi Ave, 206, Zaporizhzhia, Zaporizhia Oblast
* Kharkiv: Konstytutsii Square, 7, Kharkiv, Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine, 61000
* Odesa: Dums'ka Square, 1, Odesa, Odesa Oblast, Ukraine, 65000
* Lozova: Lozova City Council, Vulytsya Yaroslava Mudroho, Lozova, Kharkivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 64600
* Sumy: Sumy City Council, Nezalezhnosti Square, 2, Sumy, Sums'ka oblast, Ukraine, 40000
* Chernihiv: Chernihiv City Council, Mahistrats'ka St, 7, Chernihiv, Chernihivs'ka oblast, Ukraine, 14000
Russia must also have control of **all** of the following locations:
* Simferopol - Ulitsa Karla Marksa, 18, Simferopol
* Nova Kakhovka - Горсовет, Prospekt Dniprovsʹkyy, 23, Nova Kakhovka, Kherson Oblast, Ukraine, 74900
* Svatove - Avtoshlyakh R 66, Svatove, Luhansk Oblast, Ukraine, 92600
* Donetsk - Artema St, 98, Donetsk, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 83000
* Tokmak - Central St, 45, Tokmak, Zaporizhia Oblast, Ukraine, 71700
Fine Print: * If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building. If the ISW map is no longer available on the resolution date, then an equivalent resource may be selected by Metaculus.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29874
|
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs is less than 585 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The total number of active drilling rigs includes the total of those classified as oil, gas, and miscellaneous. The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around November 29, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T01:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29873
|
Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs is greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The total number of active drilling rigs includes the total of those classified as oil, gas, and miscellaneous. The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around November 29, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T01:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29872
|
Will the number of active US drilling rigs exceed 590 on November 29, 2024?
|
Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued rig counts to the oil & gas industry since 1944.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of active drilling rigs exceeds 590 on November 29, 2024, according to the Baker Hughes North American Rotary Rig Count, which can be accessed at [this](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_rotary_rigs) Ycharts link.
Fine Print: The total number of active drilling rigs includes the total of those classified as oil, gas, and miscellaneous. The link will be accessed by Metaculus Admins on or around November 30, 2024. In case of its inaccessibility, the secondary resolution source will be from Baker Hughes itself at [this link](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/na-rig-count). If both resolution links remain inaccessible by the end of the tournament, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-11T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-12T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-02T14:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29798
|
Will ModivCare file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
ModivCare is a healthcare services company. Recently it has [faced challenges](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240916259605/en/Modivcare-Provides-Financial-Update) with respect to its debt covenants.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if ModivCare, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29797
|
Will IBM raise its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025?
|
IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if IBM's posted "starting at" price for Pay-as-you-go quantum computing is greater than $96 USD / minute at [this link](https://www.ibm.com/quantum/pricing) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the price is less than or equal to that price, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29796
|
Will Matt Eberflus cease to be the Chicago Bears head coach before January 1, 2025?
|
Yahoo Sports: [Bears fans are once again fed up with Matt Eberflus, coaching staff](https://sports.yahoo.com/bears-fans-once-again-fed-222243082.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Matt Eberflus is no longer head coach of the Chicago Bears according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.chicagobears.com/team/coaches/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T20:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29795
|
On November 29, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world?
|
As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on November 29, 2024, Apple is ranked #1 by market capitalization according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus after the close of the day's trading.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T12:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29794
|
Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?
|
Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than or equal to $100 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)
Fine Print: If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29793
|
Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion as of January 1, 2025?
|
Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than $70 billion and less than $100 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)
Fine Print: If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29792
|
Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion as of January 1, 2025?
|
Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than or equal to $40 billion and less than or equal to $70 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)
Fine Print: If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29791
|
Will Elon Musk’s net worth differ from the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list by greater than zero and less than $40 billion as of January 1, 2025?
|
Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is greater than $0 and less than $40 billion. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)
Fine Print: If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29790
|
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than or equal to the highest other net worth on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires list as of January 1, 2025?
|
Forbes maintains the [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires), a daily-updated ranking the world's wealthiest individuals based on net worth. Much of the day-to-day movements are linked with the individuals' holdings in publicly-traded companies. Year to date, the top spot has been variously held by [Bernard Arnault](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesfarrell/2024/01/26/bernard-arnault-overtakes-elon-musk-as-richest-person-in-the-world/), [Jeff Bezos](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mollybohannon/2024/03/08/elon-musk-falls-behind-jeff-bezos-as-richest-person-in-us-again/), and Elon Musk, who has been topping the list for the most days.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the difference in billion USD between the net worth of Elon Musk and the highest other net worth, as displayed on Forbes' [Real-Time Billionaires list](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#212c10853d78) on January 1, 2025, is less than or equal to zero. (Forecasters please note that at the time of this question, November 6, 2024, Elon Musk was listed as having a net worth of $264.7 billion, while the highest other net worth, in this case that of Jeff Bezos, was $216.5 billion. Thus the difference is $48.2 billion.)
Fine Print: If the Real-Time Billionaires list is not available on January 1, 2025, this question will be resolved as the first day for which it is available.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29789
|
Will 12-15 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 12-15 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:38:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29788
|
Will 10 or 11 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 10-11 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:38:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29787
|
Will 8 or 9 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 8-9 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29786
|
Will 6 or 7 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 6-7 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29785
|
Will 4 or 5 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 4-5 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T21:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29784
|
Will 0-3 U.S. federal executive department heads be announced by the incoming administration between the election and December 16, 2024?
|
Following presidential elections in the U.S., new or re-elected presidents announce changes to [the cabinet](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabinet_of_the_United_States) as part of their transition or continued administration. The Cabinet has 26 members: the vice president, 15 federal executive department heads, and 10 Cabinet-level officials.
The announcement of the department heads usually happen in the first 10 weeks following election day, but vary in terms of specific timing—from Nixon in 1968 who announced all positions in the six weeks following election day, to Biden in 2020 who announced the three final positions on January 7, 2021 (approximately nine weeks following election day).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the total number of federal executive department heads officially announced as nominees by the new U.S. President-elect or their transition team after November 5, 2024, and before December 16, 2024, is 0-3 out of the total of 15 (listed in the Fine Print) according to credible sources. If a different number of nominees is announced, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: - If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
- Reports that the new president-elect *will* announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
- Official announcements that the President-elect intends to retain an incumbent in their position will count for resolution.
- Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
- Only the following 15 [Cabinet positions](https://www.whitehouse.gov/about-the-white-house/our-government/the-executive-branch/) will affect resolution:
- Secretary of State
- Secretary of the Treasury
- Secretary of Defense
- Attorney General
- Secretary of the Interior
- Secretary of Agriculture
- Secretary of Commerce
- Secretary of Labor
- Secretary of Health and Human Services
- Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
- Secretary of Transportation
- Secretary of Energy
- Secretary of Education
- Secretary of Veterans Affairs
- Secretary of Homeland Security
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T20:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29783
|
Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?
|
The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.
As of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.
The match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played.
In chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.
The time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if either player in the 2024 World Chess Championship match reaches 7.5 points before the 11th classical game (e.g. by winning 5 games and drawing another 5).
This question will also resolve as **Yes** if for any other reason the 2024 Chess Champion is declared by FIDE before the 11th classical game is played (e.g. a player forteits the match or is disqualified during the match).
Fine Print: * If the match is played by any other players than Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju, the question will be **Annulled**.
* If the result of the game 10 is not known by 7 January 2025 (and the 2024 Chess Champion is still not declared by that date) the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
* If the results of one or more of the first 10 games are annulled, then these games are not included in the count of the games for the resolution. This includes the case when both players receive 0 points for the game for violating Fair Play policy.
* If the 2024 Chess Champion title is later revoked (e.g. due to revealed fact of cheating), it will not affect the question resolution.
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-09T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-07T12:50:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29703
|
Will West Virginia have 1.4 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024?
|
[West Virginia facing worst drought in at least two decades](https://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/west-virginia-facing-worst-drought-least-two-decades)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Drought Monitor at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/west-virginia) lists greater than or equal to 1.4 million West Virginia residents in areas of drought, when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after December 31, 2024. If the number is below 1.4 million, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T01:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29702
|
Will Luke Combs win an award in any of these 2024 CMA Awards categories?
|
[58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Luke Combs wins an award in Entertainer of the Year, Album of the Year, or Male Vocalist of the Year, as announced at the 58th Annual Country Music Association Awards. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The awards show is scheduled for November 20, 2024.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29701
|
Will Astro Bot win in any of these categories at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
|
[Voting Is Now Open in the 42nd Golden Joystick Awards](https://www.gamespress.com/Voting-Is-Now-Open-in-the-42nd-Golden-Joystick-Awards)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Astro Bot wins an award at the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards for Best Audio Design, Best Soundtract, or Console Game of the Year. If this does not occur, this queston resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-22T00:08:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29700
|
Will John Thune succeed Mitch McConnell as Republican Leader of the US Senate?
|
At the time of this question, Senate Minority Whip John Thune is widely considered the frontrunner to succeed Mitch McConnell. See e.g., Punchbowl News: [Thune hits the trail for GOP candidates — and his leadership bid](https://punchbowl.news/article/senate/thune-campaigns-for-leadership-bid-in-indiana/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if John Thune is elected Republican leader of the United States Senate before December 1, 2024. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T18:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29699
|
Will either major party candidate in California’s 13th Congressional District concede the election before December 1, 2024?
|
In the 2022 midterms, CA-13 was one of the slowest elections to be called, with Democrat Adam Gray [not conceding](https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/03/politics/john-duarte-house-election-california-republican/index.html) to Republican John Duarte until December 3, 2022. See also: [Why does it take California so long to count votes?](https://calmatters.org/politics/elections/2024/03/california-election-results-vote-counting/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before December 1, 2024, either the Republican or Democratic candidate concedes the race for California’s 13th Congressional District, according to credible source reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Subsequent withdrawals of a concession (such as [happened in 2018](https://apnews.com/united-states-house-of-representatives-general-news-house-elections-464da5eba8134d5a93f4504fed811fbc)) will not cause this question to re-resolve.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T22:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29698
|
Will Merck stock continuously remain below its all-time high before January 1, 2025?
|
Reuters: [Harris vs Trump: Stocks to watch as White House race enters final stretch](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/harris-vs-trump-stocks-watch-white-house-race-enters-final-stretch-2024-11-01/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Merck remains below $134.63 continuously through December 31, 2024. If the price ever exceeds that (including as an intraday high), this question resolves as **No**. Outcome verified through Yahoo Finance's [historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MRK/history/).
Fine Print: In case of forward or reverse stock splits, the price will be adjusted and resolved accordingly, based on comparison to the all-time high.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29697
|
Will Thomas Massie be announced as the nominee for Secretary of Agriculture before January 1, 2025?
|
[Massie signals he is open to agriculture role in Trump administration](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4977627-massie-agriculture-role-trump/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Donald Trump and/or his transition team announces Thomas Massie as the nominee for Secretary of Agriculture, to serve during the second Trump Administration, which is set to begin in 2025 in the wake of the 2024 US Presidential election. The question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: If a nominee is announced, it will count for resolution independently of potential retractions or refusals on the part of the nominee.
Reports that the new president-elect will announce an executive department head do not count for the resolution of this question if the announcement itself has not taken place.
Senate confirmation is not required for this question.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29696
|
Will the Jackson Hole ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on November 29, 2024?
|
From the resolution source: "Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, located in western Wyoming’s Teton Village, is situated just 15 miles from the Jackson Hole Airport and Grand Teton National Park"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if On the Snow's Jackson Hole Snow Report, currently located [here](https://www.onthesnow.com/oregon/mt-hood-meadows/skireport), reports the ski resort's operating status as Open when accessed by Metaculus on or after November 29, 2024. If it is reported as Closed, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T12:26:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29695
|
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 January 2025?
|
Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.
More recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.
In January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that after 5 November 2024 and before 1 January 2025 rioting or civil unrest in the US leads to either:
- The deaths of at least 10 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
- The arrest of at least 1,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
These counts will be cumulative from November 6th, 2024 to December 31st, 2024, inclusive. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest.
Fine Print: - For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.
- Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.
- In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to 1 month after the question's closing date to make a determination.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29694
|
On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
|
This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.
As of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).
In late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on December 31.
The primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of November 6, 2024 includes a ["Where Can You Go?"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.
Fine Print: - "rider-only" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.
- "Available to the general public" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.
- "United States" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.
- In the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on December 31, 2024.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:56:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29640
|
Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?
|
Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in September 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Microsoft has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024 and see if Microsoft appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Microsoft is not listed, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
According to Tech Crunch, ""Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly."" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. "
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Microsoft. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T22:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29639
|
Before January 1, 2025, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?
|
Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before January 1, 2025, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://stripe.com/newsroom/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Stripe's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://stripe.com/newsroom/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on January 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.
Stripe's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29638
|
Will armed conflicts between the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China (PRC) lead to at least 100 deaths before 2025?
|
The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) claims sovereignty over the land currently controlled by the [Republic of China (Taiwan)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) and has been increasingly belligerent in recent years about their claim here. NBC news [recently claimed](https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/threat-china-invading-taiwan-growing-every-day-what-u-s-ncna1273386) that the threat of China invading Taiwan is "growing every day".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2025, either of the following occur:
* There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Taiwan and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.
* There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.
Please note: positive resolution could in theory be the result of a few incidents separated by multiple years if the total number of deaths from such incidents will reach at least 100 from now till the end of 2024.
This question will resolve as **No** otherwise.
In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29637
|
Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2025?
|
On October 7th, 2023, Palestinians militants launched rockets at Israel and 3,000 militants breached the Gaza-Israel border. More than 1,000 Israelis were killed in Kibbutzims, military bases, and at a [music festival](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Re%27im_music_festival_massacre), and over 200 hostages were abducted and taken into the Gaza Strip.
The next day on October 8th, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war. Israel responded by bombing Gaza dropping 6,000 bombs in the first 6 days, and then a ground invasion of the Gaza Strip in late October.
The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights has [accused both sides of war crimes](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-rights-chief-says-war-crimes-committed-both-sides-israel-hamas-conflict-2023-11-08/#:~:text=Israel%20has%20bombarded%20Gaza%20unrelentingly,including%20many%20women%20and%20children.).
>CAIRO, Nov 8 (Reuters) - The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights said on Wednesday war crimes had been committed by both Israel and Hamas in the conflict that erupted just over a month ago.
>"The atrocities perpetrated by Palestinian armed groups on 7 October were heinous, they were war crimes - as is the continued holding of hostages," Volker Turk said at the Rafah crossing in Egypt on the border with Gaza.
>"The collective punishment by Israel of Palestinian civilians is also a war crime, as is unlawful forcible evacuation of civilians," he added.
The [International Criminal Court](https://www.icc-cpi.int/), headquartered in The Hague, Netherlands, is an independent judicial institution empowered to prosecute individuals for international crimes, such as genocide, crimes against humanity, war crimes, and the crime of aggression. It is distinct from the United Nations and does not possess universal jurisdiction, relying instead on the ratification of the [Rome Statute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rome_Statute) by individual states, which confers the Court's jurisdiction. Israel is not a member state of the ICC, but the ICC's top prosecutor has [claimed jurisdiction](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-attack-would-fall-under-jurisdiction-war-crimes-court-prosecutor-2023-10-12/#:~:text=THE%20HAGUE%2C%20Netherlands%2C%20Oct%2012,prosecutor%20told%20Reuters%20on%20Thursday.) over any war crimes carrier out in the Gaza conflict, [writing](https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/nov/10/law-israel-hamas-international-criminal-court-icc)
> My office has ongoing jurisdiction in relation to any alleged crimes committed on the territory of the State of Palestine by any party. This includes jurisdiction over current events in Gaza and in the West Bank.
> Israel has clear obligations in relation to its war with Hamas: not just moral obligations, but legal obligations that it has to comply with the laws of armed conflict. These laws are clearly outlined in the Rome statute and the Geneva conventions.
On November 16, 2023, South Africa [referred Israel to the ICC](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africa-refers-israel-icc-gaza-attacks-pressure-104937581). South African President Cyril Ramaphosa said:
> “As South Africa we have accordingly, together with many other countries across the world, referred this whole Israeli government action to the International Criminal Court," Ramaphosa said Wednesday during a state visit to Qatar.
> “We have put through a referral because we believe that war crimes are being committed there. And of course we do not condone the actions that were taken by Hamas earlier, but similarly we condemn the actions that are currently underway and believe that they warrant an investigation by the ICC,” he added.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu.
Per the [Rome Statute](https://www.icc-cpi.int/sites/default/files/RS-Eng.pdf)—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following [categories](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works):
- Genocide
- Crimes against humanity
- War crimes
- Crimes of aggression
- Offences against the administration of justice
The ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T12:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29635
|
Will Kalshi outrank Coinbase in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024?
|
On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1844770826446319930) that Kalshi's app had surpassed Coinbase in the rankings, in the wake of Kalshi enabling betting on the US election. A day later, Coinbase had again taken the lead over the Kalshi app, so this question looks at whether the initial momentum continues or fades.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/finance-apps/6015?chart=top-free), on or after December 31, 2024 Kalshi has a higher rank than Coinbase when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29634
|
Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2025?
|
As of May 2023, US law does not restrict API or browser access to any Large Language Models (LLMs), such as GPT-4 (ChatGPT) or Google Bard. As the capabilities of such systems grow, and users learn more how to extract certain types of knowledge (e.g. how to enrich uranium or create Deep Fakes), one way US policymakers might address risks would be to restrict usage to those that are verified to be in the US.
A similar regime exists for Digital Rights Management for music & movies - access to music on Spotify or shows on Netflix or Prime Video may depend on your country of origin. (And people regularly use VPNs to pretend to be from some other place to access this content.) Copyrights and trade agreements more generally often have provisions for various countries, and some countries like China ban access to entire systems via firewalls.
This question asks about APIs, not browser or app usage, because APIs are the most flexible way to use large AI systems. (In April 2023, [Italy banned and then unbanned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/28/23702883/chatgpt-italy-ban-lifted-gpdp-data-protection-age-verification) ChatGPT's interface but not the API, which was decried as ineffectual.)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as YES if, by Dec 31 2024, US law requires at least some powerful generative AI systems to restrict API access to only people in the US, and NO otherwise.
Fine Print: * "Powerful generative AI systems" refers to AI that can solve a wide variety of tasks, such as GPT-4, and DALLE-2. Systems that translate, do text -> audio or audio -> text, summarize, search, etc. will not count as "generative". If unclear, admins will determine "powerful" by whether the AI is known to frequently generate things that typically bother governments, such as Deep Fakes or instructions to build weapons.
* "Restrict" here will be interpreted broadly. It could be by requiring AI owners to check IPs, like with DRM; it could be by requiring people to verify their identity to get API access tokens, like with KYC. Doesn't matter how easy it is to circumvent such restrictions such as via VPN.
* "Only people in the US" will be interpreted broadly, it may include Americans who are abroad, or include non-permanent residents who are visiting, or require some verification only Americans can get like Social Security numbers.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29633
|
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on November 30, 2024?
|
[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.
In September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.
For further context please see:
- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)
- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)
- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)
Resolution Criteria: This questions resolves as **Yes** if a single o1 model has the same or higher rank than all non-o1 models in all of the following 9 categories on [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/), on November 30, 2024:
- Overall
- Overall w/ Style Control
- Hard Prompts (Overall)
- Hard Prompts (Overall) w/ Style Control
- Instruction Following
- Coding
- Math
- Multi-turn
- Longer Query
If all o1 models have at least one category in which they are worse than a non-o1 model, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - For the purposes of this question, a model having no rank in a category means it is worse than all models that have a rank.
- Other models also being ranked 1 do not affect resolution, as long as a single o1 model is also ranked 1.
- An OpenAI model counts as an o1 model if it contains "o1" in its name on Chatbot Arena.
- Any categories that are no longer available on Chatbot Arena will not affect resolution, as long as they are fewer than 4. If at least 4 of the aforementioned 9 categories are not available, this question will be **annulled**.
- Any categories that are renamed but have the same methodology will be considered equivalent for purposes of this question.
- As of October 4, 2024, the relevant ranks are presented in both the Overview tab and in the Arena tab, by selecting the relevant category and potentially applying the required filter.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-01T23:06:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29632
|
Will Mike Tyson have a public boxing match before January 1, 2025?
|
At the time of this question, Mike Tyson is scheduled to box against Jake Paul on November 15, 2024. However, it has previously been postponed. For more information please see [Wikipedia Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jake_Paul_vs._Mike_Tyson)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Mike Tyson has a public boxing match before January 1, 2025. If there are no such reports that this has occured, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T12:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29631
|
Will Atlético Mineiro win the 2024 Copa Libertadores?
|
Copa Libertadores is South America's top-tier association football championship; the two-legged semifinals for the current tournament take place between October 22nd and 30th, with the single-match final taking place on November 30 at the Monumental stadium in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Atlético Mineiro is the champion of the 2024 Copa Libertadores.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-02T14:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29630
|
On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
|
This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the development of autonomous vehicles. Since its inception as Google’s self-driving car project in 2009, Waymo’s vehicles have logged over 7 million miles of rider-only trips.
As of early 2024, Waymo operates its rider-only ride-hailing service in California (San Francisco and Los Angeles) and Arizona (Phoenix), and has announced plans to expand operations to Texas (Austin).
In late 2023, Waymo published a [report](https://waymo.com/blog/2023/12/waymo-significantly-outperforms-comparable-human-benchmarks-over-7-million/) claiming that its autonomous vehicles have achieved an 85% reduction in the rate of injury-causing compared to national rates for human-operated cars, highlighting the potential of self-driving cars to reduce crashes caused by human error.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as the number of US states, including Washington, D.C., in which fully rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Waymo are available to the general public on January 1, 2026.
The primary resolution source will be Waymo's website, which as of early 2024 includes a ["Where Can You Go?"](https://waymo.com/whereyoucango/) page. Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) may also be considered in the event of ambiguity or dispute.
Fine Print: - "rider-only" trip means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.
- "Available to the general public" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.
- "United States" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Therefore the possible outcome range is 0-51.
- In the event that Waymo's operating status in a given state is ambiguous or disputed, Metaculus admins will resolve the state's status based on the best available information indicating whether, in fact, its autonomous ride-hailing service is publicly available for ride-hailing on January 1, 2026.
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29609
|
Will there be major civil unrest or rioting in the US before 1 March 2025?
|
Incidents of [civil unrest](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_incidents_of_civil_unrest_in_the_United_States) are not uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the [1992 Los Angeles riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots), during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested. Property damage was estimated at more than $1bn.
More recently, in 2020, mass civil unrest occurred in the United States [in response to the killing of George Floyd](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_Floyd_protests). 19 people died, more than 14,000 people were arrested, and insured damages were estimated to be $1-2bn.
In January 2021, the United States Capitol Building [was stormed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_storming_of_the_United_States_Capitol) by partisans as Congress was attempting to certify the electoral college result in the 2020 election. Five people died, and dozens of arrests have been made.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) report that after 5 November 2024 and before 1 March 2025 rioting or civil unrest in the US leads to either:
- The deaths of at least 10 people due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
- The arrest of at least 1,000 people by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.
These counts will be cumulative from November 6th, 2024 to February 28th, 2025, inclusive. Deaths and arrests need not be from a single instance of unrest.
Fine Print: - For deaths to count toward the overall death toll, the deaths have to occur within the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest; deaths from a generic mass shooting or a series of homicides that occur outside of the context of a riot shouldn't count. Further, deaths that occur due to medical emergencies that aren't related to rioting or unrest do not count (for example, someone dying of a heart attack while in a crowd of rioters). Suicides also do not count.
- Arrests must also be made in the context of an event of rioting or civil unrest.
- In case of ambiguity, Metaculus admins may wait up to 1 month after the question's closing date to make a determination.
|
2024-11-07T03:30:00Z
|
2025-02-28T12:00:00Z
|
2025-03-01T00:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29600
|
Will the USDA-posted recall of Hickory Hollow's ready-to-eat jerky products be closed before December 1, 2024?
|
According to the Alabama Media Group on [September 4, 2024](https://www.al.com/life/2024/09/6229-pounds-of-jerky-from-alabama-company-recalled.html), "Ready-to-eat jerky products from an Alabama-based company are being recalled. The products were shipped to retail locations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Oklahoma. The products were also sold on the internet. So far, there have been no confirmed reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products, according to the USDA. Anyone concerned about a reaction should contact a healthcare provider."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Hickory Hollow's beef jerky and bacon jerky products produced on various dates between Jan. 19, 2024-Aug. 21, 2024 is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/hickory-hollow-jerky-recalls-ready-eat-jerky-products-produced-without-benefit) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-02T00:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29599
|
Will Noodles & Co. file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Noodles & Company, a fast-casual diner founded in 1995, has faced years of negative net income since the pandemic (except for a small profit in 2021), and faces increased debt and interest expenses. The company has recently been [reported](https://www.nrn.com/fast-casual/noodles-company-considers-closing-around-20-underperforming-units) to be evaluating its restaurants and closing certain underperforming locations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Noodles & Company files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29595
|
Will Nvidia earnings for Q3 2024 exceed $0.74 per share?
|
Consensus earnings estimates are for an average of $0.74 per share, according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/analysis/).
Resolution Criteria: This questions resolves as **Yes** if the reported diluted earnings per share of Nvidia, Inc., for the third quarter of 2024 are >$0.74, based on the earnings report estimated to be released on November 19, 2024. If they are less than or equal to that number, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-21T14:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29594
|
Will Robinhood officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-revolut-explore-joining-170-170622285.html), "Companies from Robinhood Markets Inc. to Revolut Ltd. are considering launching stablecoins, betting that stricter regulations in Europe and elsewhere will finally loosen Tether Holdings Ltd.’s grip on the rapidly expanding $170 billion digital-asset sector.... A Robinhood spokesperson said it has “no imminent plans to launch this offering.”"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Robinhood Markets, Inc., announces at its blog, which can be accessed through [this link](https://newsroom.aboutrobinhood.com/), that it is launching its own stablecoin. If there is no such announcement posted at that link before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Robinhood's blog will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29593
|
Will US airline passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?
|
The Thanksgiving season is one of the busiest times of the year for travel, and 2024 [is expected](https://www.crossroadstoday.com/lifestyle/the-busiest-travel-days-around-thanksgiving/article_1dc81c6f-58c2-543c-a858-ca738283d6f1.html) to break records..
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving, i.e., November 26 and November 27, 2024, exceed the equivalent Tuesday and Wednesday before Thanksgiving in 2023, which was November 21 and November 22, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).
The two days of November 21, 2023 and November 22, 2023, had respective passenger numbers of 2,647,461 and 2,741,610, for a total of 5,389,071. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the period of November 21 and November 22, 2024, exceeds 5,389,071 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 5,389,071.
Fine Print: The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to the end of the quarter to be posted for the time in question. If it has not been posted as of January 7, 2025, when accessed by Admins, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-29T11:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29592
|
Will Sadiq Khan cease to be mayor of London before January 1, 2025?
|
Mayor Kahn faces periodic calls to resign, such as from foreign policy analyst and former aide to Margaret Thatcher [Nile Gardner](https://x.com/NileGardiner/status/1834588669149110754) in September 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Sadiq Kahn ceases to be mayor of London, England, at any point before January 1, 2025, according to the City of London's [official website](https://www.london.gov.uk/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Ceases to be mayor" is defined as vacating the office and having a permanent successor. Please note that an announcement alone, such as an announcement of not seeking re-election or an intention to vacate the office at a future date, will not count as ceasing to be mayor. Temporarily being unable to discharge the powers and duties of the office of mayor (due to illness or other reasons causing it to be temporary) will also not count for purposes of this question.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29591
|
Will the CDC report more than 80% of the tested influenza sequences as influenza A during the 2024-25 season through the week ending Dec 21, 2024?
|
Influenza pandemics typically [come from](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC2928832/) Influenza A, particularly from a sub-type against which much of the human population lacks much immunity. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/viruses-types.html):
>Currently circulating influenza A(H1N1) viruses are related to the pandemic 2009 H1N1 virus that emerged in the spring of 2009 and caused a flu pandemic ([CDC 2009 H1N1 Flu website](http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/)). These viruses, scientifically called the "A(H1N1)pdm09 virus," and more generally called "2009 H1N1," have continued to circulate seasonally since then and have undergone genetic changes and changes to their [antigenic properties](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/professionals/antigenic.htm) (i.e., the properties of the virus that affect immunity).
>Influenza A(H3N2) viruses also change both genetically and antigenically. Influenza A(H3N2) viruses have formed many separate, genetically different clades in recent years that continue to co-circulate.
For the 2024-25 flu season, the [trivalent](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/trivalent-vaccines-2024-2025.html) (three-component) vaccine will target two influenza A and one influenza B virus. During the 2023-24 season, 69.2% of positive specimens [were](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) influenza A, substantially similar to the 69.1% for the week ended ending May 4, 2024, at which time 97% of all positive cases that would be registered for the season had been tested. Among the 25,390 influenza-associated hospitalizations for the season, a disproportionate number (84.6%) were associated with influenza A, as compared with with 14.8% associated with influenza B.
According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/overview/index.html):
>All public health and clinical laboratories report each week to CDC the total number of respiratory specimens tested for influenza and the number positive for influenza viruses, along with age or age group of the person, if available. CDC presents data from clinical laboratories that include the weekly total number of specimens tested for influenza, the number of positive influenza tests, and the percent positive by influenza virus type.
>Influenza surveillance data are aggregated according to the week the event (e.g., positive laboratory test, outpatient visit, death) occurred. The week starts on Sunday and ends on the following Saturday. Each surveillance participant is requested to report its data to CDC by Tuesday afternoon of the following week. The data are then downloaded, compiled, and analyzed at CDC. [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/) and [FluView Interactive](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/fluviewinteractive.htm) are updated weekly on Fridays.
Since the pandemic, the numbers have been as follows:
### FluView Week 18 (beginning of May) - Influenza A %
| Season | Influenza A % |
|------------|---------------|
| 2023-24 | 69.1% |
| 2022-23 | 98.2% |
| 2021-22 | 98.4% |
Looking at a wider sweep of history, during the 25 years through the 2023-24 season, 11 had two waves of influenza activity. Among those 11 seasons, 8 of them [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html) their second wave come from influenza B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the cumulative percentage of Influenza A sequences since September 29, 2024, of all specimens that have tested positive for influenza in clinical laboratories in the United States nationwide, as reported by the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC). Resolution will be based on the CDC’s first [FluView](https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html) Weekly US Influenza Surveillance Report published that encompasses the entirety of the time period from September 29, 2024, through the week ending Dec 21, 2024.
Fine Print: Specifically, this question resolves based on the percentage of positive specimens reported by CDC for Clinical Laboratories. For example, in the FluView report for [Week 18 of 2024, ending May 4, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2023-2024/week18.htm), CDC reported 69.1% of positive specimens as Influenza A, which would have been the resolution number. In the event CDC reports only the raw numbers, the calculation will be the number of positive specimens of Type A divided by the number of positive specimens, multiplied by 100% and then rounded to the nearest tenth. In this example, this is 235,659 divided by 340,899, which rounds to 69.1%.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T20:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29590
|
Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Dec 7, 2024 be more than 2,000?
|
According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year.
Over the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).
The CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the "gold standard" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:
>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection
>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery
Resolution Criteria: These questions will resolve as the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations in the United States for the week ending on Dec 7, 2024, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), currently anticipated to be posted at [this dataset](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/blob/main/target-data/target-hospital-admissions.csv) from the FluSight Forecast Hub.
The value used for resolution will be the number shown in the "value" column in target-hospital-admissions.csv with "location_name" as "US" and the "date" corresponding to the relevant week end date.
The CDC uses "epidemiological weeks" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, this question will resolve according to data shown at the resolution source 4 weeks after the respective end date.
Fine Print: Forecasters please note two things:
- At the time of this question's launch, the CDC has not yet begun updating the FluSight Forecast Hub dataset with numbers from the 2024-25 season.
- There is some uncertainty about where the resolution data will be. If the CDC publishes the data at a different location than the one listed above, Metaculus Admins will issue a clarification updating the question accordingly.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-06T22:17:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29589
|
Will the weekly total number of influenza hospitalizations for the United States for the week of Nov 23, 2024 be more than 2,000?
|
According to the CDC, 0.4% of all deaths in the United States from October 2023 to August 2024 [had](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/whats-new/flu-summary-2023-2024.html#cdc_generic_section_8-mortality-surveillance) influenza listed as an underlying or contributing cause. At its height, for the week ending January 6, 2024, 1.3% of all deaths in the US stemmed from influenza. In the past decade and a half, the CDC [estimates](https://www.cdc.gov/flu-burden/php/about/faq.html#cdc_tools_technologies_features-flu-related-hospitalization) that flu has, with the exception of the outlier year 2020, resulted in 140,000 to 710,000 hospitalizations per year.
Over the wide sweep of history, much of the [fat tail risk](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41567-020-0921-x) from pandemics has come from influenza. Since 1900, the start of the [late modern medicine](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9609744/) era, the deadliest pandemic faced globally [was](https://openpublichealthjournal.com/contents/volumes/V14/TOPHJ-14-128/TOPHJ-14-128.pdf) the 1918 Spanish Flu. It was caused by [H1N1](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1918-pandemic-h1n1.html) and killed an estimated 2%-3% of the world's population. Other notable influenza pandemics occurred in [1957](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1957-1958-pandemic.html), [1968](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/1968-pandemic.html), and [2009](https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.htm).
The CDC runs an annual [FluSight](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/index.html) forecasting exercise, producing an [ensemble forecast](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/flusight/flu-forecasts.htm) of weekly influenza hospitalizations compiled from forecasts [submitted](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub) by a number of teams. The forecasts are compared to the "gold standard" flu hospitalization data, [described by the CDC here](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/tree/main/target-data), compiled from the underlying data [here](https://healthdata.gov/Hospital/COVID-19-Reported-Patient-Impact-and-Hospital-Capa/g62h-syeh). The data used is from `Field 34` of the source data, described in the [guidance](https://www.hhs.gov/sites/default/files/covid-19-faqs-hospitals-hospital-laboratory-acute-care-facility-data-reporting.pdf) as follows:
>Information Needed: Previous day’s admissions with laboratory confirmed influenza virus infection
>Description: Enter the total number of patients (adult and pediatric) who were admitted to an inpatient bed on the previous calendar day who had laboratory-confirmed influenza virus infection at the time of admission. Include inpatient, overflow, observation, ED, ED awaiting orders for an inpatient bed, active surge/expansion, ICU, NICU, PICU, newborn and nursery
Resolution Criteria: These questions will resolve as the weekly total number of confirmed influenza hospitalizations in the United States for the week ending on Nov 23, 2024, as reported by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC), currently anticipated to be posted at [this dataset](https://github.com/cdcepi/FluSight-forecast-hub/blob/main/target-data/target-hospital-admissions.csv) from the FluSight Forecast Hub.
The value used for resolution will be the number shown in the "value" column in target-hospital-admissions.csv with "location_name" as "US" and the "date" corresponding to the relevant week end date.
The CDC uses "epidemiological weeks" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, this question will resolve according to data shown at the resolution source 4 weeks after the respective end date.
Fine Print: Forecasters please note two things:
- At the time of this question's launch, the CDC has not yet begun updating the FluSight Forecast Hub dataset with numbers from the 2024-25 season.
- There is some uncertainty about where the resolution data will be. If the CDC publishes the data at a different location than the one listed above, Metaculus Admins will issue a clarification updating the question accordingly.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-22T12:48:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29588
|
Will three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities before 2025?
|
As of 2023-04-28, the Frontier Labs (defined in resolution criteria) are OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, and Google Deepmind, [(source)](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=0). Labs that would join this with a ~10x growth in training compute include Meta, Yandex, Amazon, and Hugging Face.
"3 Frontier Labs" here means that, at the time of the statement, at least 3 signatories are Frontier Labs according to the definition in the resolution criteria.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **YES** if before January 1, 2025, three or more Frontier AI Labs issue a joint statement committing to constrain their AI's capabilities, and **NO** otherwise.
We define a "Frontier AI Lab" as one who has trained models within one order of magnitude of the largest known model, which as of April 2023 is GPT-4. For example, as of April 2023, a frontier AI lab would be one which has trained a model with more than 2e24 FLOPs. However, this threshold will change as the largest known model changes.
Compute levels will be established either per credible media reporting or reporting from a credible research institution such as [Epoch](https://epochai.org/) using a best guess point estimate.
Fine Print: * A "joint statement" refers to a document that is explicitly authored or endorsed by each party. A technical paper does not qualify.
* "committing to constrain their AI's capabilities" will be interpreted narrowly. For example, a commitment to prevent certain types of restricted speech, or a commitment to always do Reinforcement Learning with Human Feedback, will not qualify. The constraints must be on the general capabilities of the AIs - for example, committing to not using more than a certain amount of compute, or committing to not deploying a model until it verifiably cannot perform certain tasks, such as recursive self-improvement.
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29550
|
Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2025?
|
"Slaughterbots" is a term used to describe drones that use artificial intelligence and facial recognition to target people with lethal force.
The term was brought into the popular lexicon by an [arms-control advocacy video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-2tpwW0kmU) created in 2017 by the Future of Life Institute (FLI) and Stuart Russell, who is a professor of computer science at UC Berkeley.
While defense analyst Paul Scharre criticized the video as fear mongering ["science fiction,"](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-shouldnt-fear-slaughterbots) the team behind the campaign continue to argue that ["autonomous weapons are potentially scalable weapons of mass destruction (WMDs); essentially unlimited numbers can be launched by a small number of people. "](https://spectrum.ieee.org/why-you-should-fear-slaughterbots-a-response)
Max Tegmark, a professor at MIT and president of FLI, also warned that these weapons could be used by cartels and political dissents to carry out [targeted assassinations.](https://thenextweb.com/news/slaughterbots-are-a-step-away-from-your-neighborhood-and-we-need-a-ban)
[In 2021 a resolution to ban autonomous lethal weapons failed to pass at the United Nations.](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/22/un-talks-to-ban-slaughterbots-collapsed-heres-why-that-matters.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves positively if a credible media outlet reports at least 50 civilians have been killed by autonomous drones before January 1st 2025. The media coverage must conclude that the drones were not under complete human control during the attack(s).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, a military conflict is defined as an armed conflict including one or more governments, which includes any of the following situations:
1. Armed conflict between states or nations (international war).
2. Armed conflict between factions within a state where at least 1 side represents the pre-existing government (civil war).
3. Armed conflict between a state military and a militia / terrorist group.
Fatalities resulting from militia / terrorist group attack on politicians / civil servants should count towards the total death count.
The devices do not have to be airborne. Terrestrial / aquatic slaughterbots will count.
People do not need to be killed in a single location / single attack. A cumulative death toll of 50 will resolves positively.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29549
|
Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?
|
*related question on Metaculus:*
* [Will lab-grown complex vital organs be used successfully in humans before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1640/will-lab-grown-complex-vital-organs-be-used-successfully-in-humans-before-2025/)
More than 30,000 organ transplants are performed each year in the United States alone, according to 2015 data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network. Around the world, the total was estimated to be 135,860 in 2016 according to the [Global Observatory on Donation and Transplantation.](http://www.transplant-observatory.org/)
However, the demand for donor organs often significantly exceeds the supply, meaning that many patients have to wait for a significant period of time before receiving an acceptable donor organ. Many, tragically, die waiting.
In response to this problem, multiple efforts are underway around the world to create acceptable donor organs in laboratories. There have been reported successes for simpler tissue structures including [vaginas](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-26885335), [urethras](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-12666171), and [bladders](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45470799), but so far there have been no attempts in humans for hearts, livers, kidneys or lungs - though [lab-grown lungs have been implanted into pigs](https://www.sciencenews.org/article/scientists-transplant-lab-grown-bioengineered-lungs-pigs) and [functional human “mini-kidneys”](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/human-kidney-grown-mouse-stem-cells-urine-medical-first-scientists-functioning-tissue-cells-manchester-university-a8202856.html) capable of filtering blood to produce urine have been grown in mice.
Resolution Criteria: Before January 1, 2025, will any human live without the assistance of medical life support for at least 100 days after the implantation of a lab-grown heart, liver (or a substantial part of the liver), kidney or lung?
All transplantations need to be considered by medical professionals to have a substantial positive effect on the patient's health, relative to the counterfactual case in which the patient did not receive the transplantation.
For the purposes of this question, 'lab-grown' includes organs cultivated inside a living organism so long as the organs are not naturally ocurring; that is, not merely an organ taken from a non-human and implanted in a human without there having been substantial bioengineering involved to alter the harvested organs.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:24:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29548
|
Will there be a culturally significant development in aging research before January 1, 2025?
|
Resolution Criteria: In 2019, at a speech at the Foresight Institute, biomedical gerontologist Aubrey de Grey [stated](https://youtu.be/QmoYYewuw-c?t=660):
> I think we are still 15-20 years away [from effective anti-aging therapies] but the anticipation of the therapy by the general public is coming soon, and it is that anticipation that is going to be the point when the shit really hits the fan. If you think about a situation in which less than five years from now [...] in a period of about a week, half of the developed world is going to shift from an expectation that they will live only slightly longer than their parents did, into an expectation that they're going to live far longer than anyone has ever lived.
If half of the people in the developed world came to believe within a period of a week that effective anti-aging therapies were imminent, this would likely be a culturally significant event, perhaps among the most significant in the 2020's.
This question resolves positively if any of the terms "aging", "ageing", "anti-aging", "anti-ageing", "longevity", "lifespan", "rejuvenation", or "life extension" are mentioned as a direct reference to longevity research\* in any of the following media sources produced before January 1, 2025:
1. The English Wikipedia's "In the news" [section](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:In_the_news).
or
2. History.com's summary of events for a year in the 2020's.
or
3. The transcript for a primary or general presidential election debate in America.
It also resolves positively if:
4. A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging.
Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030.
In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.
*ETA: 2022-04-08: qualifying primary or general presidential election debates are limited to mainstream debates (i.e., Republican and Democratic primaries + general election debates).*
<small>
\* "longevity research" here means the research comes from a group whose explicit purpose (as defined by their charter, or their about page on their website, or by some official statement made by the organisation which pertains to their research ends) is to slow, halt, or reverse the natural aging process. Examples of research groups which meet this criteria are the SENS Research Foundation and The Sinclair Lab at Harvard.
</small>
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29547
|
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world on December 31, 2024, according to Forbes?
|
As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Elon Musk is in first place on December 31, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there is a tie, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29546
|
Will Oregon voters approve Measure 118, which would initiate a universal basic income in the state, funded by corporate tax?
|
Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 118, Corporate Tax Revenue Rebate for Residents Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_118,_Corporate_Tax_Revenue_Rebate_for_Residents_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Oregon Measure 118 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:35:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29545
|
Will Donald Trump Lose in New York State by under 6.0 points in the 2024 election?
|
In the 2022 gubernatorial election, the Democratic governor, Kathy Hochul, won by 6.39 points over her Republican opponent. In 2020, Joe Biden won the presidential popular vote in NYS by 23.1 points. On October 27, 2024, Donald Trump held a rally in Madison Square Garden.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump loses the popular vote in New York State in the 2024 presidential race by less than 6.0 points. If he loses by greater than or equal to 6.0 points, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T12:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29544
|
Will Kamala Harris be president before January 1, 2025?
|
*Related Questions on Metaculus:*
* [Will Biden be impeached by the US House of Representatives?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/3419/biden-impeachment-vote-by-house-of-reps/)
* [Will Joe Biden no longer be US President before January 20, 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12217/biden-does-not-complete-first-term/)
----
Kamala Harris is the running mate for Joe Biden for the 2020 US election. Many believe Biden's mental health is not good and may deteriorate fast ([see this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4906/will-an-official-diagnosis-of-dementia-be-announced-for-joe-biden-before-2023/)). This opens the question of whether he will leave office due to mental health reasons before finishing his first term. In August 2020, there was a nation-wide poll on this: [59% Think Biden Unlikely to Finish A Four-Year Term in White House](https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2020/59_think_biden_unlikely_to_finish_a_four_year_term_in_white_house).
>Likely Democrat nominee Joe Biden is expected to announce his vice presidential running mate any day now, and most voters think it’s likely that person will be president within the next four years if Biden is elected in November.
>The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 59% of Likely U.S. Voters believe it’s likely Biden’s running mate will be president before the end of Biden’s four-year term if he wins this fall, with 39% who say it’s Very Likely. Thirty-five percent (35%) consider it unlikely that Biden’s vice presidential choice will be president before his four-year term ends, but that includes only 14% who think it’s Not At All Likely.
>Even 49% of Democrats think it’s likely Biden’s vice president will become president in the next four years, although that compares to 73% of Republicans and 57% of voters not affiliated with either major party.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if Kamala Harris is the US President for at least 30 consecutive days at any point before January 1, 2025. Kamala Harris becoming president by winning the 2024 election is not sufficient for positive resolution.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29542
|
Before January 5, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?
|
As of the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) for October 26, 2024, the KP lineage had a combined estimate of 68% of sequenced variants in the United States for the two-week period ending on that date. As an [offshoot](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/kp2-now-dominant-covid-variant-experts-us-summer/story?id=110166187) of the [omicron variant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SARS-CoV-2_Omicron_variant), KP (specifically KP.2 at the time) [first reached](https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7342a1.htm) >10% prevalence in April 2024. KP.3.1.1 [became](https://www.cdc.gov/ncird/whats-new/kp-3-1-1-is-the-predominant-variant.html) the predominant variant in August 2024.
Recently another new COVID variant has been rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 17% according to the October 26th Nowcast. This is a sharp increase from the two-week period ended September 14, 2024, when it was 2%. Even at 17% following its rapid gains, XEC is still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, which is 57% according to the Nowcast. However, results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) "suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1."
At the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):
>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.
>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.
In contrast:
>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the "Nowcast on" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.
Due to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves **Yes** if before January 5, 2025, according to CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) the combined weighted estimate for all KP variants in the United States is below 50% in any period ending between November 9, 2024, and January 4, 2025, inclusive.
Fine Print: Any subsequent revisions to the data after the question is resolved will not be considered.
CDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes, the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available, the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.
This question resolves according to the "Weighted" estimate and will not use the "Nowcast" estimate.
The HHS region used will be "USA".
The central estimate reported will be used when determining the variant share.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T13:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29541
|
Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?
|
Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) "suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1."
At the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):
>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.
>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.
In contrast:
>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the "Nowcast on" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.
Due to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a weighted estimate for all XEC variants in the United States of 50% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending before January 5, 2025. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: This question resolves according to the "Weighted" estimate and will not use the "Nowcast" estimate.
|
2024-11-04T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T15:30:00Z
|
2025-01-07T01:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29521
|
Will both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin congratulate the winner of the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election before December 1, 2024?
|
Historically, winners of important elections are congratulated by foreign leaders as a form of diplomatic courtesy. However, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and both China and Russia have raised questions about whether their respective leaders will maintain this tradition in 2024. After the 2020 U.S. election, for instance, Xi [congratulated Joe Biden](https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/25/politics/xi-jinping-joe-biden-congratulations/index.html) only after results were more widely accepted, while Putin [did so](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2020-55318269) only after the Electoral College vote. The timing of congratulatory messages might reflect each leader's stance on U.S. relations.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 1, 2024, both Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin have issued official congratulations to the 2024 U.S. presidential election winner. To count, the congratulatory message would have to acknowledge the election outcome and either include direct statements from the corresponding leader or mention the leader's name. For example, China's 13 Nov 2020 statement
> We respect the choice of the American people. We extend congratulations to Mr Biden and Ms Harris
would not count for the purposes of this question, as it came from a foreign ministry spokesman and did not include Xi Jinping's name.
Fine Print: The election winner is defined as the candidate declared by both Fox News and the Associated Press. If they do not agree with each other or either of these has refused to declare any candidate the winner, this question will be **Annulled**.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-11-30T23:59:00Z
|
2024-11-07T19:30:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29499
|
Will there be greater than or equal to 3,900 emojis on December 31, 2024?
|
July 17th is World Emoji Day. This day is typically used by platform vendors to announce new emojis supported on their platform.
Emojis are a subsection of the Unicode standard, and by World Emoji Day, the upcoming version of the yearly Unicode standard is in a very stable state, so that the total number of Emojis can be determined.
The number of Emojis has increased steadily since [Unicode v11.0 in 2018 when it was at 2789](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-11.0/emoji-counts.html) to [3633 in Unicode v14.0, published 2021](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts-14.0/emoji-counts.html).
What will be the growth trend of Emojis in the next five years and how many emojis will be there in Unicode 19.0, expected in 2026?
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve according to the total number of Emojis reported in the [Emoji Counts](https://unicode.org/emoji/charts/emoji-counts.html) table published by Unicode, Inc.
If no Emoji Counts chart is published by Unicode, Inc. at that location, Metaculus moderators may determine the count according to numbers published by Unicode, Inc. or a successor organization elsewhere.
If the latest version of the Unicode standard at resolution time is not 19.0, the question will be resolved according to the latest released version. This also applies if the standard ceases to be updated or published in the meantime
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29498
|
Will Sam Altman's net worth exceed $1 billion on the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024?
|
As of October 8, 2024, Altman's net worth was listed as exactly $1 billion, according to Forbes.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to his [Forbes Profile](https://www.forbes.com/profile/sam-altman/) Sam Altman's net worth is higher than $1 billion on December 31, 2024. For purposes of this question, this is defined as $1.1 billion or higher (no rounding), according to that specific resolution link. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable on December 31, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 3, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29497
|
In Nebraska will Initiative 439, the Right to Abortion Initiative, receive more votes than Initiative 434, the Prohibit Abortions After the 1st Trimester Amendment?
|
Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 434, Prohibit Abortions After the First Trimester Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska_Initiative_434,_Prohibit_Abortions_After_the_First_Trimester_Amendment_(2024)); Ballotpedia: [Nebraska Initiative 439, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Nebraska_Initiative_439,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Nebraska Initiative 439 receives more votes than Initiative 434 in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29496
|
Will the USDA-posted recall of Perdue Foods LLC's Frozen, Ready-To-Eat Chicken Breast Nugget and Tender Products be closed before November 16, 2024?
|
According to NBC News on [August 17, 2024](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/perdue-recalls-frozen-ready-eat-chicken-nuggets-tenders-possible-metal-rcna167004), "'FSIS is concerned that some product may be in consumers’ freezers,' the agency said. 'Consumers who have purchased these products are urged not to consume them. These products should be thrown away or returned to the place of purchase.' Perdue Foods LLC said in a news release that 'a foreign material was identified in a limited number of consumer packages.' FSIS said metal was found in the products and was discovered after consumer complaints about metal wire embedded in the food. 'We determined the material to be a very thin strand of metal wire that was inadvertently introduced into the manufacturing process,' said Jeff Shaw, Perdue’s senior vice president of food safety and quality. 'Out of an abundance of caution, we decided to voluntarily recall all of these packages of products.' There have been no confirmed reports of illness or injury, FSIS and Perdue said."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Purdue Foods's frozen, ready-to-eat chicken breast nugget and tender items is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/perdue-foods-llc-recalls-frozen-ready-eat-chicken-breast-nugget-and-tender-products) is accessed by Metaculus after November 15, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T14:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29495
|
Will Plug Power file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Hydrogen fuel cell company Plug Power has faced financial challenges recently. From its recent SEC filings: "At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern."
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Plug Power, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29493
|
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
As of 2024, the [world chess champion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) is determined by a match of 14 games between the current world champion and the winner of the Candidates tournament. In the previous world chess championship in 2023, Ding Liren defeated Ian Nepomniachtchi in a nerve-wracking match. The match featured 6 decisive classical games over the board, more than all such matches since 1996, and was decided in the last minutes of the fourth tie-break game.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve Yes if Gukesh Dommaraju is the winner of the 2024 World Chess Championship, according to official results announced by [FIDE](https://www.fide.com/news).
Fine Print: If Gukesh forfeits the match, this question will resolve as **No**. If Ding forfeits the match the question will resolve as **Yes**, as long as FIDE announces that Gukesh is the new world champion.
Otherwise, if the match is cancelled or postponed to after December 31, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:14:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29492
|
Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?
|
Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!
Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.
----
This question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:
> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=
The standard allows for many optional components, but common components are
- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble
- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)
- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)
- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)
- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)
- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)
- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)
- runway information, starting with R
- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)
But! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's "-SN" for "light snow".
Here are some other examples of reports indicating snow:
> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`
RESN means "recent snow"
> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=
SG means "snow grains"
> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=
-SHSN means "light snow shower"
For decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.
Resolution Criteria: The 10 largest cities in Europe [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits#Largest_cities) are
- Istanbul
- Moscow
- London
- Saint Petersburg
- Berlin
- Madrid
- Kyiv
- Rome
- Bucharest
- Paris
For this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.
Each of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.
If four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: To determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the [Ogimet METAR](http://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en) historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves Ambiguous.
The lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T20:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29491
|
Will the US State Department approve more than 25 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?
|
The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:
| Month | Number |
|-----------------|--------|
| October 2024 | 9 |
| September 2024 | 12 |
| August 2024 | 22 |
| July 2024 | 4 |
| June 2024 | 7 |
| May 2024 | 10 |
| April 2024 | 7 |
| March 2024 | 10 |
| February 2024 | 8 |
| January 2024 | 7 |
| December 2023 | 17 |
| November 2023 | 5 |
| October 2023 | 7 |
| September 2023 | 7 |
| August 2023 | 5 |
| July 2023 | 4 |
| June 2023 | 12 |
| May 2023 | 7 |
| April 2023 | 6 |
| March 2023 | 10 |
| February 2023 | 5 |
| December 2022 | 6 |
| November 2022 | 8 |
| October 2022 | 3 |
| September 2022 | 5 |
| August 2022 | 7 |
| July 2022 | 13 |
| June 2022 | 3 |
| May 2022 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 6 |
| March 2022 | 4 |
| February 2022 | 9 |
| January 2022 | 5 |
| December 2021 | 5 |
| November 2021 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 1 |
| September 2021 | 2 |
| August 2021 | 8 |
| July 2021 | 3 |
| June 2021 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 4 |
| March 2021 | 6 |
| February 2021 | 5 |
| December 2020 | 15 |
| November 2020 | 6 |
| October 2020 | 11 |
| September 2020 | 9 |
| August 2020 | 2 |
| July 2020 | 15 |
| June 2020 | 2 |
| May 2020 | 7 |
| April 2020 | 8 |
| March 2020 | 4 |
| February 2020 | 5 |
| January 2020 | 2 |
| December 2019 | 1 |
| November 2019 | 5 |
| October 2019 | 8 |
| September 2019 | 5 |
The average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for October 2024, November 2024, and December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: Note that some State Department arms approvals are subject to congressional approval; however, this question only asks about arms sales listed at the resolution source as being approved by the State Department, even if later rejected by Congress.
Every listing will count as only one event, regardless of the number of types of equipment listed.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29490
|
Will the US State Department approve more than 20 arms sales globally in the fourth quarter of 2024?
|
The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. In the past 5 years, State Department-approved arms sales per month have been as follows:
| Month | Number |
|-----------------|--------|
| October 2024 | 9 |
| September 2024 | 12 |
| August 2024 | 22 |
| July 2024 | 4 |
| June 2024 | 7 |
| May 2024 | 10 |
| April 2024 | 7 |
| March 2024 | 10 |
| February 2024 | 8 |
| January 2024 | 7 |
| December 2023 | 17 |
| November 2023 | 5 |
| October 2023 | 7 |
| September 2023 | 7 |
| August 2023 | 5 |
| July 2023 | 4 |
| June 2023 | 12 |
| May 2023 | 7 |
| April 2023 | 6 |
| March 2023 | 10 |
| February 2023 | 5 |
| December 2022 | 6 |
| November 2022 | 8 |
| October 2022 | 3 |
| September 2022 | 5 |
| August 2022 | 7 |
| July 2022 | 13 |
| June 2022 | 3 |
| May 2022 | 4 |
| April 2022 | 6 |
| March 2022 | 4 |
| February 2022 | 9 |
| January 2022 | 5 |
| December 2021 | 5 |
| November 2021 | 1 |
| October 2021 | 1 |
| September 2021 | 2 |
| August 2021 | 8 |
| July 2021 | 3 |
| June 2021 | 4 |
| May 2021 | 3 |
| April 2021 | 4 |
| March 2021 | 6 |
| February 2021 | 5 |
| December 2020 | 15 |
| November 2020 | 6 |
| October 2020 | 11 |
| September 2020 | 9 |
| August 2020 | 2 |
| July 2020 | 15 |
| June 2020 | 2 |
| May 2020 | 7 |
| April 2020 | 8 |
| March 2020 | 4 |
| February 2020 | 5 |
| January 2020 | 2 |
| December 2019 | 1 |
| November 2019 | 5 |
| October 2019 | 8 |
| September 2019 | 5 |
The average per month is 6.7. The month of August 2024, with 22 sales, was the record highest since the monthly archive begin, in 2004.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for October 2024, November 2024, and December 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: Note that some State Department arms approvals are subject to congressional approval; however, this question only asks about arms sales listed at the resolution source as being approved by the State Department, even if later rejected by Congress.
Every listing will count as only one event, regardless of the number of types of equipment listed.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-29T11:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29488
|
Will it rain more than 200mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).
2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.
3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF
4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.
To access the precipitation data, click on "Tabela". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.
This question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T21:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29487
|
Will it rain more than 150mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).
2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.
3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF
4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.
To access the precipitation data, click on "Tabela". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.
This question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T21:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
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