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stringlengths 8
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stringlengths 0
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| open_date
stringlengths 19
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-RtTPZ1fIeRBQWnfuht9v
|
Will Iran accuse Israel of causing the Iranian president's helicopter to crash?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-19T08:43:22
|
2024-05-26T20:59:00
|
2024-05-27T06:15:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gonoNKtHdq0afZskUHOk
|
Will the cause of the Iranian helicopter crash containing the president be revealed to be sabotage?
|
Breaking news that a helicopter containing the Iranian President and related political officials has gone missing, likely crashed or had to make an emergency landing.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/5/19/iran-helicopter-accident-live-president-fm-on-missing-aircraft
Resolves "Yes" if the majority of international powers determine that the root cause was deliberate sabotage. Resolves "No" it the majority of international powers indicate no evidence of sabotage. Resolves "N/A" if there's broad disagreement six months after the incident.
It's tricky to pre-determine exactly which powers would need to make which determinations, and there are multiple government agencies per country that can make conflicting reports. Please post any assessments in the comments and I'll do my best to resolve this based on the spread of information available.
|
2024-05-19T08:22:08
|
2024-10-19T23:59:00
|
2024-10-21T17:12:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0pi9x0eAmpBNPnY6oTAB
|
Will Ebrahim Raisi survive the helicopter crash?
|
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/19/middleeast/iranian-president-raisi-helicopter-intl/index.html
|
2024-05-19T06:05:45
|
2024-05-19T21:27:34
|
2024-05-19T21:27:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eKqvjziGlpKXFzOZ4DQK
|
GW38: Will Manchester City score at least 5 goals versus West Ham?
|
Pretty straightforward. Resolves YES as soon as City score their 5th goal, or NO otherwise
|
2024-05-19T03:58:15
|
2024-05-19T10:00:48
|
2024-05-19T10:00:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yYsyVdPQsIsr3EVpkRYa
|
Will Benny Gantz leave Israel's government, after threatening to, before Jun 18?
|
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05/18/world/israel-gaza-war-hamas-rafah
Benny Gantz, a member of Israel’s top leadership, said Saturday he would soon leave the country’s emergency wartime government unless Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu worked to answer major unanswered questions over the future of Israel’s war.
“If you choose the path of zealots, dragging the country into the abyss, we will be forced to leave the government,” Mr. Gantz said in a televised news conference. “We will turn to the people and build a government that will earn the people’s trust.”
Mr. Gantz, who leads the National Unity party, said he would give Mr. Netanyahu until Jun. 8 — about three weeks — to reach an agreement in Israel’s war cabinet on a plan that would return the hostages and address the future governance of Gaza, among other goals.
|
2024-05-18T21:06:05
|
2024-06-09T20:07:56
|
2024-06-09T20:07:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XkIpOBiFpfeZn9wmbkNE
|
Will Sam Altman give testimony to either chamber of Congress in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if he speaks to the House of Representatives or Senate while in session, before the close of this market.
|
2024-05-18T18:33:20
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T17:14:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XOgqfrH8fWoCEFCp07Cx
|
Will Sam Altman make an in person appearance on stage at Microsoft Build during the keynote on May 21st?
|
Microsoft Build is just around the corner, taking place from May 21-23, 2024.
|
2024-05-18T10:19:31
|
2024-05-21T11:54:12
|
2024-05-21T11:54:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x0aaiwo2AMAeSBwgUfVS
|
Will OpenAI launch a new model that is only available for ChatGPT paid users in 2024?
|
Now that both free and paid users have access to OpenAI's flagship model, gpt-4o, I wonder if OpenAI will launch a completely new model that is only available to paid users at some point in 2024. Updates to existing models won't count. The model has to have a new name that is different from all existing models. If OpenAI announces such a model and starts rolling it out to users, then we would consider it launched. Announcing exclusive features and limits on existing models won't count.
Related market: @/Soli/will-openai-launch-a-significantly
|
2024-05-18T03:38:51
|
2024-09-12T11:50:01
|
2024-09-12T12:14:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2J23KkfC6cJCPaCz1sy
|
Will Starliner fly before Starship IFT-4?
|
Starliner keeps getting delayed. Meanwhile, the FAA has said that the next Starship launch doesn't per se need to wait until the investigation is complete if there was no risk to the public. Who will win?
|
2024-05-18T03:29:29
|
2024-06-05T07:53:30
|
2024-06-05T07:53:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0el9oYUdyj2aqM822Esg
|
Will any more executives after Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike leave OpenAI before Sept 1st 2024?
|
After Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike left the company on the week of May 13th, there are no rumoured major departures (like Ilya's was for a long time).
The market will resolve "Yes" if any of these people announce their departure from the company.
any C-suite executive
any co-founder who has not already departed before Ilya
any board member (as of May 18th)
any "head of X" type person
general counsel
Transitioning into a non-active role such as advisor also counts as a departure, but a "disappearance" or sabbatical such as Ilya's does not, until it is announced as a departure.
Departures of VP's, managers and engineers does not count.
Such a departure will be clear and public, announced by the person, the company, or Sam Altman.
[image]
|
2024-05-17T22:28:49
|
2024-08-05T18:14:12
|
2024-08-05T18:14:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XqOAM8EVhiMLjXad9A18
|
Will Apple’s Market Cap Exceed Microsoft’s at the End of 2024?
|
Resolves positively if, after the markets have closed on the last trading day of 2024, Apple’s market capitalization exceeds Microsoft’s market capitalization. This will be determined based on the closing prices and number of shares as reported by Yahoo Finance.
See this related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-surpass-microsoft-in-mar)
|
2024-05-17T19:37:16
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:11:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-auzOLj2mRk8vblYzsjWR
|
Will Apple mention 'ChatGPT' at WWDC 2024?
|
There are rumours that Apple may be announcing a partnership with OpenAI during WWDC 2024. Regardless of if such a partnership is announced or not this question resolves positively if an Apple presenter mentions 'ChatGPT' during the main keynote of WWDC 2024.
|
2024-05-17T18:58:48
|
2024-06-10T12:50:58
|
2024-06-10T12:50:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ptXpYC8ZGy3Hai7xP7F
|
Will Apple reduce the price of the Apple Vision Pro before 2025?
|
The current base price of the Apple Vision Pro is $3499, will it be reduced on the official Apple US website before 2025?
See this market for prior to 2026:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-reduce-the-price-of-the-f1e3ce3ba239)
|
2024-05-17T18:48:53
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:11:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7YpjdEQWYnpXLs0wHlfn
|
Will the US win the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2024
|
The 2024 IMO is held in the UK between the 11th - 22nd of July 2024. Each participating country sends 6 competitors and the score for a country is the sum of the scores of its individual participants. Will the US break China's winning streak? (Tied for first would resolve YES)
Previous winners have been:
2023 - China
2022 - China
2021 - China
2020 - China
2019 - USA and China tie
2018 - USA
2017 - Korea
2016 - USA
2015 - USA
See this market for if China keeps it's streak:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-china-win-the-international-ma)
|
2024-05-17T18:41:08
|
2024-07-20T05:52:35
|
2024-07-20T05:52:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bHMGQahuOFusa3PUughA
|
Will China win the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO) 2024
|
The 2024 IMO is held in the UK between the 11th - 22nd of July 2024. Each participating country sends 6 competitors and the score for a country is the sum of the scores of its individual participants. Will China win again? (Tied for first would resolve YES)
Previous winners have been:
2023 - China
2022 - China
2021 - China
2020 - China
2019 - USA and China tie
2018 - USA
2017 - Korea
2016 - USA
2015 - USA
See this market for if the US breaks the Chinese streak:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-the-us-win-the-international-m)
|
2024-05-17T18:39:04
|
2024-07-20T05:52:16
|
2024-07-20T05:52:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t7Ewym4a84h1HwAnaWmL
|
Will Apple announce new hardware at WWDC 2024?
|
Resolves positively if Apple announces any new hardware during the main keynote of WWDC 2024. It is sufficient to resolve ‘yes’ even if the announcement is only a spec bump to an existing design, such as a chip upgrade for the Mac mini.
|
2024-05-17T18:22:09
|
2024-06-10T12:48:09
|
2024-06-10T12:48:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FYo8KI68oSzQjsdjj54D
|
Will Destiny buy a new car by the end of June 2024?
|
Destiny has expressed interest in buying a new car because he is tired of his Focus RS.
https://files.catbox.moe/fqeg10.mp4
The last time he contemplated buying a new car in mid 2023, he got decision paralysis and ended up not going through with it.
Will Destiny end up buying a new car this time by the end of June 2024?
|
2024-05-17T11:56:33
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T11:24:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NwSf594ZmPtrkLgehxfE
|
Will Biden and Trump debate before Trump announces his Vice President Running Mate?
|
Resolves YES if they start the debate and his VP running mate is not known with certainty yet.
|
2024-05-17T10:35:21
|
2024-06-27T18:46:03
|
2024-06-27T18:46:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sNvW83UKz56mRDfUBvZQ
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 4th?
|
End of day Israel time zone
Must be agreed upon by both sides
|
2024-05-17T10:29:48
|
2024-07-04T19:20:01
|
2024-07-04T19:20:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u3qdR0LW3ajKTjNsSxsg
|
Will Apple announce a partnership with Baidu during WWDC 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-17T02:34:26
|
2024-06-10T22:24:45
|
2024-06-10T22:24:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4fJOJKtgd2PyusFPrLtw
|
Will a soldier from a NATO country be confirmed killed in action inside Ukraine during 2024?
|
Must be serving in a NATO military at time of death, which must be while on duty. Pre-2014 borders. Includes airstrikes. Must be reported in 3 out of following: BBC, NYT, CNN, Reuters, AP.
|
2024-05-16T23:39:55
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-02-19T01:11:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rZQ5MueCWw6VrLwYSbAW
|
Will Manchester United buy a player from a current Premier League team this summer transfer window?
|
If Manchester United buy someone from a club in the 2023/24 Premier League season, then the answer will be Yes.
|
2024-05-16T23:33:33
|
2024-08-31T15:55:58
|
2024-08-31T15:55:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6tH4hCf3kWtXWA64lMnu
|
Will RFK Jr. qualify for the 6/27/2024 presidential debate on CNN?
|
According to the criteria set by CNN on 5/15/2024 in this post:
https://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2024/05/15/cnn-to-host-2024-election-presidential-debate-between-president-joe-biden-and-former-president-donald-j-trump-on-june-27/
Whether or not:
The criteria change
The debate is cancelled
RFK Jr. ends up participating
(Note: if the date of the debate changes, qualifying polls must close before 6/20/2024, not 7 days before the rescheduled date.)
"To qualify for participation, candidates must fulfill the requirements outlined in Article II, Section 1 of the Constitution of the United States; file a Statement of Candidacy with the Federal Election Commission; a candidate’s name must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to reach the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the presidency prior to the eligibility deadline; agree to accept the rules and format of the debate; and receive at least 15% in four separate national polls of registered or likely voters that meet CNN’s standards for reporting.
Polls that meet CNN editorial standards and will be considered qualifying polls include those sponsored by: CNN, ABC News, CBS News, Fox News, Marquette University Law School, Monmouth University, NBC News, the New York Times/Siena College, NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist College, Quinnipiac University, the Wall Street Journal, and the Washington Post.
The polling window to determine eligibility for the debate opened March 13, 2024, and closes seven days before the date of the debate."
|
2024-05-16T21:41:08
|
2024-06-19T23:59:00
|
2024-06-20T06:15:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AvqNssosp806xZdEtRXR
|
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling on 538 at the beginning of July?
|
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of July. This market resolves one week into July to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of July 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on July 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
[image]
|
2024-05-16T21:17:20
|
2024-07-01T16:48:34
|
2024-07-01T16:48:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jdL9zAcMqcRbQ9eG0feK
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of July 6th?
|
Going by end of day Israel time
both sides must agree
|
2024-05-16T15:34:16
|
2024-07-06T15:00:26
|
2024-07-06T15:00:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l6vOZFr7LZ3KRsszwDHp
|
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of July? (538)
|
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of July. This market resolves one week into July to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of July 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on July 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
[image]See also:
The Manifold Politics Forecast
The Swing State Dashboard
The Polling Dashboard
|
2024-05-16T09:58:07
|
2024-07-08T11:59:00
|
2024-07-08T15:55:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nhtqRLHoNXRXYe9bEm8m
|
Will Trump beat Biden in national polling at the beginning of June? (538)
|
This market resolves based on the 538 polling average at the beginning of June. This market resolves one week into June to allow time for the average to have been updated.
If the 538 average as of June 8th shows Trump as having been in the lead on June 1st, this market resolves YES. In all other scenarios, this market resolves NO.
As of market creation, Trump is ahead by 1 point:
[image]See also:
The Manifold Politics Forecast
The Swing State Dashboard
The Polling Dashboard
|
2024-05-16T09:57:22
|
2024-06-08T11:59:00
|
2024-06-08T14:34:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ooEHq7jr5HKE7nHDdxg5
|
Will Biden and/or Trump die before/during the June 27th debate?
|
Resolves YES if either candidate is dead from natural causes (no assassinations) before the end of the debate.
|
2024-05-16T06:58:11
|
2024-06-28T13:00:55
|
2024-06-28T13:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f
|
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
|
Clarification:
Market resolves if TSLA reaches >$275 ($275.01+) at any point before 8pm EST on 8/8 - this includes After Market but not Overnight trading.
For After Market trading information: After-Hours Trading: How It Works, Advantages, Risks, Example (investopedia.com)
|
2024-05-15T19:16:50
|
2024-08-08T18:24:11
|
2024-08-08T18:24:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GsgrGuqG2m88WnRz2KTP
|
Will Collin Burns still work at OpenAI on June 14th?
|
Collin Burns is on the OpenAI superalignment team and was the lead author on the weak-to-strong generalization paper. Will Collin Burns still be employed at OpenAI at end-of-day on Friday, June 14, 2024?
|
2024-05-15T18:34:20
|
2024-06-14T23:59:00
|
2024-06-15T17:33:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nk2VouJZaJ559SIrcuWk
|
Will the first presidential debate "matter"?
|
Resolves YES if either candidate gets a 3 point boost between the debate day and two weeks afterwards. Will use RCP's 2-way "Spread" score for resolution purposes. Resolves N/A if no debate takes place. I have set the resolution date far away only as a safeguard against rescheduling.
Link to resolution source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
|
2024-05-15T17:16:09
|
2024-07-11T20:32:55
|
2024-07-11T20:32:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D8eYkDU1QoM7nPtCXbEi
|
Will TSLA reach >$ 275 before 8pm EST on 8/8?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-15T17:02:01
|
2024-08-08T16:05:00
|
2024-08-08T18:43:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1xvxIoiDrmG2v6BCq51T
|
Will Trump withdraw from June 27 debate with Biden?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-15T14:11:55
|
2024-06-27T18:11:41
|
2024-06-27T18:11:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mRuqzMhPPyHY1RTmdrig
|
Will "Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) have a Metacritic score >80?
|
"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/furiosa-a-mad-max-saga/
I will resolve based on the Metascore (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 31st (one week after release).
Details
I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).
Example: the Metascore for "Mad Max: Fury Road" is currently 90. That is the equivalent number I will use.
"Furiosa" just premiered at Cannes, so some reviews have already been released. I expect many more will arrive the week of release.
|
2024-05-15T13:21:45
|
2024-06-01T06:36:00
|
2024-06-01T06:36:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qKsqWW0SVwMoCdyMD28I
|
Trump has agreed to debate Pres. Biden on June 27, but will he show up?
|
Closes the day before the debate to prevent sniping; or when Trump says he's bagging out.
I'm tempted to ask another question: What excuse will Trump give for bagging out?
Barron is graduating again.
Melania wants to spend time with him.
Warden won't let him out.
|
2024-05-15T12:00:48
|
2024-06-26T20:59:00
|
2024-06-27T20:39:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dU2Uiw6OuEEHUOMaeUY6
|
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,500.00 before 5,100.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,500.00 or 5,100.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-05-15).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,100.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,500.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-9632da1d8fde)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-e6acf118500b)
|
2024-05-15T10:49:14
|
2024-06-20T07:14:50
|
2024-06-20T07:14:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z6av2xvfnczIFFbqsyYa
|
OpenAI releases a model unquestionably named "GPT-4.5" or "GPT-4.5x" (where X varies) by mid 2025, hardcore legalism arc
|
This is a hard core well defined market.
Names that count, with symbolic regex
GPT-4.5
gpt-4.5 (we ignore case)
GPT-4.5[a-z]{1,1} (single character suffixes allowed)
GPT-4.5[other single symbols]{1,1}, e.g. gpt-4.5[smiley face emoji]
ignoring case, so gpt-4.5 would also count, as would GpT-4.5X
gpt-4.5 (where the - is a special rare "unicode dash") and similar. These count because for the human perception system, they still appear to be "gpt-4.5"
gpt-4.5, but they tell us that it's pronounced gpt-fawty-five. This counts because the text is still gpt-4.5
Things that would not count
gpt-45 (no dot)
GPT45 (no dash)
GPT4-5 (wrong dash location)
gpt-445 (extra stuff)
gpt-4.55 (yes, its an extra char, but it appears to break the required "4.5" as the numerical part)
gpt-5
gpt-5.4
Unlike my other markets, this is a hard core market where I'm going to try to judge based on predefined rules as much as possible.
|
2024-05-15T10:45:55
|
2025-02-27T14:34:44
|
2025-02-27T14:34:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QXBUUMEkqYQEvhVps8zo
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to see Trump debate Biden?
|
Resolves YES if he is alive when the debate starts
|
2024-05-15T10:24:07
|
2024-06-27T20:17:30
|
2024-06-27T20:17:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6GX8dxzqNVb2HjwKMjLg
|
Will Slovakian PM Robert Fico survive the assassination attempt?
|
Resolves YES if he survives the week
|
2024-05-15T07:27:03
|
2024-05-22T21:59:00
|
2024-05-23T04:11:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HDTx6AnWkBXgKAWEAkZz
|
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate on June 27th as planned?
|
Context:
[image]Resolves YES if a debate between Biden and Trump begins on June 27th. The debate does not have to be hosted by CNN, and does not have to run for its full planned length. A debate that begins and is then ended early would still satisfy these resolution criteria.
If no debate between Biden and Trump begins on June 27th, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-05-15T07:22:32
|
2024-06-27T18:18:40
|
2024-06-27T18:18:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8720SiBGcQBlNUIVRIqO
|
Will Robert Fico remain PM of Slovakia at EOY 2024?
|
- Yes: Robert Fico remains the Prime Minister of Slovakia until December 31, 2024.
- No: Robert Fico ceases to be the Prime Minister of Slovakia at any point before December 31, 2024.
|
2024-05-15T06:56:50
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:26:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kPDxFAh31lEpJELe1cXg
|
In the next 6 months, will it be publicly confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Jan Leike are working on a project together?
|
Publicly confirmed examples: their twitter accounts, an official statement from the project, or mainstream news sources.
I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-05-14T23:46:30
|
2024-11-14T23:59:00
|
2024-11-15T03:28:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3wRmZN5B5UypDistmDUA
|
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of August 2024?
|
Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on August 31, 2024
Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:
Technological singularity
Spontaneous combustion
Transmutation into a higher state of existence.
If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
|
2024-05-14T23:14:49
|
2024-09-01T21:59:00
|
2024-09-02T21:38:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qMv6w3aBIoOHXgQbZqyB
|
Will Ilya Sutskever announce they will work at Anthropic before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-14T16:54:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:53:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d1Vr9O1t0ZuZOgfpctjt
|
Will Ilya Sutskever found a new company before 2025?
|
Resolves positively if Ilya Sutskever is the founding member of a new company and makes this official before 2025.
Sutskever must personally be making a statement regarding the issue, a post on X or an interview would suffice.
|
2024-05-14T16:32:24
|
2024-06-19T11:35:49
|
2024-06-19T11:35:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tiu2Ul6Lso8r3IdcT5pN
|
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of July 2024?
|
Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on July 31, 2024
Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:
Technological singularity
Spontaneous combustion
Transmutation into a higher state of existence.
If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
|
2024-05-14T14:52:15
|
2024-08-01T19:57:35
|
2024-08-01T19:57:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qGHg5eEECmMO44KYbAeP
|
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of June 2024?
|
Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 ET on June 30, 2024
Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:
Technological singularity
Spontaneous combustion
Transmutation into a higher state of existence.
If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
|
2024-05-14T14:51:27
|
2024-07-01T19:03:55
|
2024-07-01T19:03:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0lSrHabm6gSoH3f3ZI19
|
Will Sheryl Sandberg replace Bob Iger as CEO of Disney by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-14T12:15:25
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-09T11:50:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j8OZxOzhPPkqih5hdIUY
|
Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
|
Unsure and Results don't count. Resolves to this Poll:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory-34b91c026bb0)
|
2024-05-14T10:19:38
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-12-31T22:04:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ocB06kwCL8Mg5tr7v7s
|
NOAA - Will September 2024 be the hottest September on record? (Global)
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month. A tie will resolve “no”.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-05-14T09:14:05
|
2024-10-24T10:55:00
|
2024-10-24T10:55:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eAtIJcMyZcBsmVX25I7B
|
Will there be any groundbreaking discovery regarding transhumanism in the next 30 days.
|
This market will treat "Transhumanism" as a scientific movement that advocates the use of current and emerging technologies—such as genetic engineering, cryonics, artificial intelligence (AI), and nanotechnology—to augment human capabilities and improve the human physical condition.
Since companies like Neuralink are currently working to improve human beings through transhumanism (and testing on humans!!) . So will there be any announce regarding a new groundbreaking advancement or discovery in the field of enhancing human capacities .
Any new political legislation or laws regarding the use or production of Transhumanist device or services will count as a groundbreaking advancement .
|
2024-05-14T07:33:57
|
2024-06-13T14:59:00
|
2024-06-13T22:02:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SufJVwcJSZ0g81X3Lnm5
|
Was roaring kitty's account hacked?
|
Roaring Kitty returned to Twitter after not posting for 3 years, kicking off a rally in Gamestop and other meme stocks:
https://twitter.com/TheRoaringKitty/status/1789807772542067105
Some people on Twitter and Reddit have speculated that the style of the new tweets does not match the style of the old tweets, and that Roaring Kitty's account was hacked and used for market manipulation.
This market resolves yes if it is confirmed that Roaring Kitty's account was hacked or the tweets were otherwise not sent by the original account owner (Keith Gill).
Market resolves no if it is confirmed that Keith Gill is posting as usual, and this is just normal market manipulation, not some type of criminal market manipulation.
|
2024-05-14T00:16:37
|
2024-06-07T11:00:04
|
2024-06-07T11:00:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UMDwz4w1HsgPohZYCXtA
|
Will this (hideous) Hermès handbag sell for >$42,069 at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included)
|
The Sotheby's auction house in Zurich is about to auction off a very valuable designer handbag. Link:
Hermès. Limited Edition Bleu Royal, Nata, Gold and Bleu Indigo Epsom Quelle Idole Kelly Doll Picto Palladium Hardware, 2022
Sotheby's gave it an estimated value of 30,000 - 40,000 CHF (approximately $33,000 - $44,000). This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >$42,069
Resolution details:
Example from a past auction: This painting by Vigée Le Brun lists "Lot Sold
3,085,000 USD". This is the equivalent number I will use.
Note that this final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium.
If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES with a listed sale price from this auction of >$42,069.
The sale price may be reported in CHF. If Sotheby's directly reports a USD price, I will use that, otherwise I will use the Yahoo currency converter on the day I resolve the market.
Details
[image]Hermès Limited Edition Bleu Royal, Nata, Gold and Bleu Indigo Epsom Quelle Idole Kelly Doll Picto Palladium Hardware, 2022
The interior is lined with tonal leather
Includes Includes strap, detachable Bleu indigo pouch, dust bag and box
Dimensions : 16.5 x 12 x 7 cm
For more auctions, check out the dashboard.
|
2024-05-13T20:30:16
|
2024-05-23T07:43:51
|
2024-05-23T07:43:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7dydRYW81ShM8d6w6bwJ
|
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI regarding Siri during WWDC 2024?
|
Resolves positively if Apple announces that OpenAI will partner with them on Siri. The question still resolves positively even if few details are provided regarding the partnership. An official statement during the main keynote of WWDC 2024 is needed, something like "we partnered with OpenAI to improve Siri" or "Siri will be running the latest OpenAI models" (non-exhaustive list).
Update May 19th: Some notes on specific questions in the comment section:
If the partnership is made regarding some new product that is not called Siri then this market will only resolve positively if this new product is the clear successor to Siri AND the current Siri is either removed or slated for removal once the new product becomes available.
For a positive resolution there has to be a partnership between Apple and OpenAI. This means that OpenAI cannot treat Apple as a regular customer that is using their API and Apple cannot treat OpenAI as a regular developer. There has to be some active collaboration from both parties.
Note that the partnership does not have to be the exclusively or even primarily about Siri as long as the partnership includes Siri.
See this more general question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w)
|
2024-05-13T15:10:28
|
2024-06-10T12:26:04
|
2024-06-10T12:26:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ddnFjBFfOh2ZRtXxdklJ
|
Will Apple announce a partnership with OpenAI during WWDC 2024?
|
Resolves positively if Apple announces a partnership with OpenAI on the main keynote of WWDC 2024.
There must be a partnership regarding some product or service, simply showing that users can use the ChatGPT app on iPhone would not be sufficient.
See this question about Siri in particular:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-announce-a-partnership-w-db8a0fd6ca2f)
|
2024-05-13T15:05:55
|
2024-06-10T12:26:18
|
2024-06-10T12:26:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZTcBLSLbf3lFQN20cacw
|
By EOY 2024, will it be publicly known that any Boeing whistleblower has been granted witness protection ?
|
This market resolves YES if, by Dec 1st 2024, 24:00 London time, it is commonly admitted that at least one Boeing whistleblower has been granted witness protection.
Feel free to ask for clarification. I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-05-13T05:19:06
|
2025-01-02T14:59:00
|
2025-01-05T11:07:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pFApJ12OsplIhO50twf3
|
Will Tesla License FSD to any major OEM by end of January 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-12T17:26:57
|
2025-01-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-24T18:35:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lHRfcBWCswVpBPLe0PE2
|
Will a NATO country put boots on the ground in Ukraine before 1 Sept, 2024?
|
Yes if regular troops are put on the territory held by Ukraine on 24 Feb 2022 and acknowledged by their country or reported on by major western media outlets before 1 Sept 2024. Special operations including French foreign legion will not count, nor will police etc.
Update May 29: "Military instructors" like these articles
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-commander-french-military-instructors-visit-ukrainian-training-centres-2024-05-27/
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/05/28/france-and-ukraine-in-talks-over-sending-military-instructors_6672883_4.html
talk about will count as "regular troops".
|
2024-05-12T16:41:58
|
2024-09-01T02:05:40
|
2024-09-01T02:07:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rkl3h8GuXJwoFlfoA5IH
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs 3-peat as NFL Champions?
|
Chiefs must win Super Bowl in ‘24/‘25 season for yes outcome to occur.
This market will resolve to NO if it becomes impossible for them to win the 2025 Superbowl.
|
2024-05-12T15:08:25
|
2025-02-09T19:30:46
|
2025-02-09T19:30:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0dEB0UgE9sHeu1E2BDRJ
|
Will Joe Biden last longer than Benjamin Netanyahu as head of state?
|
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - Resolution Time: A week from Monday. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-05-12T13:36:52
|
2025-01-19T21:01:00
|
2025-01-21T08:32:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P4DX1qkUrEvN0pqmBsJ5
|
Will Trump's VP running mate be one of Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, Marco Rubio, JD Vance, or Elise Stefanik?
|
This market resolves after Trump formally announces his vice presidential running mate.
It resolves YES if he announces one of these five people, or NO if he announces someone else or if he does not ever announce a running mate.
For more markets on the Veepstakes, see the dashboard.
|
2024-05-12T12:12:14
|
2024-07-15T12:21:13
|
2024-07-15T12:21:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IVHHY0nWlko9MCE8aAnR
|
Will a third Boeing whistleblower die before the end of Halloween?
|
https://fortune.com/2024/05/09/more-boeing-whistleblowers-emerge-law-firm/
[image]
|
2024-05-12T10:19:35
|
2024-10-31T19:46:59
|
2024-10-31T19:46:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wPBixftbsYTv5S7vQMYk
|
Will Kendrick release a diss track response to Drake's The Heart Part 6 within one month of it releasing?
|
[image]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud
@/strutheo/will-kendrick-release-a-diss-track-d08510d5758d
@/strutheo/will-kendrick-release-a-diss-track
|
2024-05-12T10:18:42
|
2024-06-05T20:59:00
|
2024-06-06T01:43:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xJJ4dVF08qGfJ1Rb90S2
|
Will the 4th Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?
|
Resolves YES if the next (4th) Starship space flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System on either the upper or lower stage or both, during flight (so if hypothetically it activates before launch or after touchdown, that doesn't count). Otherwise NO.
This question is about the next Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.
|
2024-05-11T17:10:37
|
2024-06-06T07:25:21
|
2024-06-06T07:25:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fi8IRWNAdtZhkv6WENU9
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Noam Chomsky?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-11T15:20:37
|
2025-01-18T21:10:33
|
2025-01-18T21:10:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ERLLK5yfKrab7pYkg4O
|
Will macOS 15 drop support for intel based Mac’s?
|
Will macOS 15 (most likely announced at WWDC2024) drop support for all intel based Mac’s?
|
2024-05-11T14:31:37
|
2024-06-10T16:47:00
|
2024-06-10T16:47:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ySr3JrlNRKl06XgjXTi
|
Will OpenAI reveal a textless LLM before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if OpenAI announces a large neural network trained on language data that does not come in the form of text before January 1st 2025.
The announcement can be primarily for a system that integrates this model in a wider framework including weights trained on text data. However, OpenAI must demonstrate that the textless language component can operate independently and be applied to distinct tasks (e.g. audio to audio) for this question to resolve as YES.
Training on synthetic speech generated from text is acceptable, provided the training process does not backpropagate through the TTS model.
If there is significant ambiguity about whether an announcement meets the criteria of this question, then this question resolves as N/A. Otherwise this question resolves as NO.
Related links:
https://ai.meta.com/blog/textless-nlp-generating-expressive-speech-from-raw-audio/
|
2024-05-11T04:22:42
|
2025-03-03T17:04:23
|
2025-03-03T17:04:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GEWvUnMJwVaTZCJBQvFW
|
Will the CFTC finalize a rule that bans US election betting before Jan 20, 2025?
|
The CFTC has proposed a regulation that would ban all US election betting. See here for more info: https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-cftc-seeks-ban-derivatives-bets-elections-calamities-2024-05-10/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the final rule is issued (regardless of the date the rule becomes effective) before the Presidential Inauguration on January 20, 2025. Otherwise it resolves to "no."
I will determine the outcome based on whether it is listed on this page, or elsewhere at CFTC.gov as a final rule, at the time of inauguration: https://comments.cftc.gov/FederalRegister/Final.aspx
The market will resolve to "yes" as long as the final regulation substantively bans election betting in the United States. If, on the other hand, the final rule were to be altered from the current proposal to allow election betting by going through a specified regulatory process, then the market will resolve to "no."
|
2024-05-10T10:59:35
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T09:33:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JE6QipAkTCMc2BvuDzyp
|
Will Beret appear in the xkcd webcomic again before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the Beret character appears in an xkcd by the end of 2024.
I may bet in this market.
|
2024-05-10T07:52:28
|
2024-09-18T15:24:15
|
2024-09-18T15:24:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-11OR6f3oj9QVMbUCCbZM
|
At least 1 person killed during students protests in American universities during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-10T05:55:17
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-15T09:08:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wKbR2SFRJY8I5ZIEbcfN
|
Will Russia launch a major offensive on Kharkiv before September?
|
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Russia has launched a major offensive on Kharkiv Oblast, Ukraine before September 1st 2024.
In the context of this question, a "major offensive" is defined as at least two of the following conditions being met during this period:
direct involvement of at least 50k Russian soldiers in combat operations
direct involvement of at least 250 Russian tanks in combat operations
losses (casualties) of at least 20k Russian soldiers during this period
losses of at least 100 Russian tanks during this period
launching of at least 200 Russian cruise missiles (Kh-101/3M-14 Kalibr/9M727/9M728...)
launching of at least 400 Russian drones (Shahed-136 + other variants...)
launching of at least 2000 Russian glide bombs (FAB-500/FAB-1500)
For the above conditions to be met, these events/losses/evidence must occur within Kharkiv Oblast.
(Note that other conditions may be added to this list as appropriate)
If there is weak evidence that this has occurred, but no strong evidence, then this question resolves as N/A. Similarly, if there is significant ambiguity about whether the above conditions have been met, this question resolves as N/A.
If there is no evidence that this major offensive has occurred (defined as enough of the above conditions being met) then this question resolves as NO.
More information here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_occupation_of_Kharkiv_Oblast
Image credits (Ekaterina Polischuk)
|
2024-05-10T05:21:39
|
2024-10-15T14:59:00
|
2024-10-21T10:40:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5fVow1bupHbuxSnztX18
|
Will Elden Ring Shadow of the Erdtree have a similar all-time peak Players of 953k Players on Steam?
|
According to https://Steamdb.info/app/1245620/charts the all-time peak of Elden Ring is
953 426!
This Question will Resolve YES if the DLC will have had an all-time Peak of 950k or higher! This will be resolved at the start of August as Elden Ring had the Peak a month after release, therefore the same timeframe will be given here!
|
2024-05-10T02:43:34
|
2024-08-01T14:59:00
|
2024-08-02T01:14:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-woIJfuks5XsMYnmuyZPf
|
Will OpenAI *release* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?
|
https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324
This market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is released --- meaning it is accessible to the public whether free or paid.
"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.
See related question on if a search product will be announced
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet
|
2024-05-09T21:13:25
|
2024-05-17T20:59:00
|
2024-05-17T21:15:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lezhy8v9KwVEyyHF3rzN
|
Will Manchester City win the 2024/25 Champions League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-09T18:35:31
|
2025-03-08T11:06:12
|
2025-03-08T11:06:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wl0EPJ525Vb5RHLhMLGD
|
Will Llama 3 405B be open sourced
|
A model known as Llama 3 which has 405 billion parameters is rumored to be coming from Meta this summer (July or August). Will its weights be available via a permissive open source liscence? Resolves to yes if the liscence is approximately the same as llama 3 70b or llama 3 8b. Yes if a normal person with a bunch of gpus can run it after filling out a form.
|
2024-05-09T13:52:24
|
2024-07-31T15:25:57
|
2024-07-31T15:25:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gI8On5LTEFeVzYaJNAm1
|
Will Trump Debate Biden AND Kamala debate JD Vance in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-09T00:11:49
|
2024-09-17T08:19:24
|
2024-09-17T08:19:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N6mbT1vYBiwJawxq9pMe
|
Will the ICC indict Netanyahu for war crimes before January 1st 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-08T13:38:34
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-11T23:17:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q38c9rfM2WsWnDTD04EA
|
Will RFK Jr. confirm that the dark spot found on his brain in 2010 was likely a dead parasite, before June?
|
Report from the NYT:
In 2010, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was experiencing memory loss and mental fogginess so severe that a friend grew concerned he might have a brain tumor. Mr. Kennedy said he consulted several of the country’s top neurologists, many of whom had either treated or spoken to his uncle, Senator Edward M. Kennedy, before his death the previous year of brain cancer.
Several doctors noticed a dark spot on the younger Mr. Kennedy’s brain scans and concluded that he had a tumor, he said in a 2012 deposition reviewed by The New York Times. Mr. Kennedy was immediately scheduled for a procedure at Duke University Medical Center by the same surgeon who had operated on his uncle, he said.
While packing for the trip, he said, he received a call from a doctor at NewYork-Presbyterian Hospital who had a different opinion: Mr. Kennedy, he believed, had a dead parasite in his head.
The doctor believed that the abnormality seen on his scans “was caused by a worm that got into my brain and ate a portion of it and then died,” Mr. Kennedy said in the deposition.
Doctors ultimately concluded that the cyst they saw on scans contained the remains of a parasite. Mr. Kennedy said that he did not know the type of parasite or where he might have contracted it, though he suspected it might have been during a trip through South Asia.
This market resolves YES if, before June 1st, RFK addresses the report and broadly confirms that he probably did have a brain parasite. The report does not claim that he certainly had a brain parasite, and so RFK also does not need to be certain for this resolution. A new quote from him saying he "probably" had a brain parasite would be sufficient for this market. Likewise, any comment similar to "I'm not an expert, but that's what the doctors think is most likely" would be sufficient for a YES resolution.
On the other hand, if RFK says nothing before June 1st, or broadly denies that he likely had a brain parasite, then this market resolves NO. If his comments are limited to saying things like "the dark spot could have been anything, the parasite theory was just one doctor's opinion and many other doctors had other opinions", that would be sufficient for a NO resolution.
These exact criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the market, suggestions are welcome in the comments.
|
2024-05-08T08:20:30
|
2024-05-22T14:17:00
|
2024-05-22T14:17:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z7v0j3YKG6MQmpG2SHi5
|
Will RFK JR.'s US Search Interest reach a new 90 day high within a week of the NYT story about his literal brain worm?
|
Data will be taken from this page:
[image]Literal brain worm story from the NYT here:
[image]If search interest over the past 90 days reaches a new one-day high above the March 26th peak by the end of May 15th, this market resolves YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2024-05-08T07:03:12
|
2024-05-15T23:59:00
|
2024-05-22T14:14:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nax3Z0FPo0S4GOn7WSKF
|
Will a German Team win the 2024 Champions League?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-07T18:04:37
|
2024-06-01T17:23:29
|
2024-06-01T17:23:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UcZGKxo3j6uaHTy1iTcs
|
Will Destiny and Elon Musk talk to each other in the same Twitter space before the end of 2024?
|
[image]
|
2024-05-07T17:58:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-15T11:06:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4RPTODxPehmsYgONkTm0
|
Will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid? ⚽|🏆 Champions League Final
|
At the conclusion of the final match of the UEFA Champions League, including regular time, and if applicable, extra time and a penalty shoot-out, will Borussia Dortmund beat Real Madrid?
(https://manifold.markets/embed/10thOfficial/borussia-dortmund-vs-real-madrid-ch)
|
2024-05-07T13:53:09
|
2024-06-01T13:57:31
|
2024-06-01T13:57:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LKiDGGTlQKVMjtriUqyg
|
Will Destiny talk to Andrew Tate again in May 2024?
|
Destiny has expressed interest in doing more twitter spaces after his successful debate with Tate, Nick Fuentes, and Sneako on 5/5/24.
[tweet]Elon even commented under this tweet.
[image]Must be done publicly in a voice call or in person.
Related Markets:
[markets](https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-destiny-talk-to-tristan-tate-i)
|
2024-05-07T11:58:26
|
2024-05-31T23:59:00
|
2024-06-01T02:34:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8lkkeDMInSrJCH8wkrPL
|
Will Kevin Magnussen receive a race ban during the 2024 F1 season
|
Kevin Magnussen after the Miami grand prix has 10 penalty points. When a driver reaches 12 points they get banned for a race. This market resolves to "yes" if KMag receives a ban during the 2024 season and to "No" if the season ends without him getting a race ban.
None of his existing points are set to expire this year: https://racingnews365.com/f1-penalty-points-standings-after-miami-sanctions-magnussen-on-the-edge
|
2024-05-06T22:15:55
|
2024-09-01T22:26:25
|
2024-09-01T22:26:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eLo8kcrPoavtRGTQhYhH
|
Will Leverkusen finish the season undefeated in all competitions
|
Resolves NO if Bayer Leverkusen 04 loses any match in the 2023-24 season
|
2024-05-06T19:15:06
|
2024-05-23T09:48:21
|
2024-05-23T09:48:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IZdJzPortM4jXPm0GwDu
|
Will OpenAI *announce* a search competitor to Google / Perplexity by May 17, 2024?
|
https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1787331421964804324
Clarifications:
This market resolves Yes if a new standalone search engine product is announced, whether free or paid. This market is not about the release date of such a product.
"A mere extension to the existing ChatGPT product allowing it internet access" would not count for the purposes of this market. The product should emphasize web search as its primary feature; it should not just be a secondary feature of OpenAI's current ChatGPT / GPT-4 product.
Apologies for ambiguities in wording. I have updated the title for clarity.
Update:
See related question on if a search product will be released
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-openai-release-a-search-compet-0e9608ec5137
See the following question regarding search capabilities integrated into ChatGPT/GPT-4, not necessarily a standalone product:
https://manifold.markets/Ellis/will-improved-search-capabilities-b?r=RWxsaXM
|
2024-05-06T17:12:30
|
2024-05-17T20:59:00
|
2024-05-17T21:15:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eJaszkCfuFMEEiuKDZPK
|
Will an AI-piloted Fighter Jet of US origin see combat in Ukraine before March 2025?
|
The US military has recently been testing AI piloted F-16 Fighting Falcons, and found them competitive in dogfights vs human pilots. Will we see an AI piloted fighter jet of US origin active in the Russia-Ukraine conflict before March 2025?
A fighter jet will be defined as a large (>5 metric tonnes) jet intended for air-to-air or mixed air-to-air/ground-attack roles. A strictly ground-attack jet will not resolve to Yes.
This question will resolve to No if the war in Ukraine ends before March 2025.
|
2024-05-06T14:12:10
|
2025-02-28T15:59:00
|
2025-02-28T16:15:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lsec2XOzQOQBZgmSuc9f
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June?
|
Going by Israel time zone, both sides must agree
|
2024-05-06T12:55:46
|
2024-06-30T17:35:51
|
2024-06-30T17:35:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D2DQcGvhDFM8AGpqdz2D
|
Will the federal reserve cut (reduce) interest rates before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-06T09:41:28
|
2024-09-25T10:26:53
|
2024-09-25T10:26:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RcRLFMimYmY29hCGgccz
|
Will Trump be confined in 2024?
|
Will Trump be physically confined with any method (detained, jail, prison, house arrest, etc) for any reason (contempt, conviction, etc) for any duration?
|
2024-05-06T09:35:41
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:29:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qZKLy1kkVuYP7j4MtjOJ
|
Will Apple announce any new macbook pros tomorrow (5/7/24)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-06T09:17:37
|
2024-05-07T20:59:00
|
2024-08-21T18:39:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nhm8U7LUz1ohn2dHHryD
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $800 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
|
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-927c3c0aefbf
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
|
2024-05-06T05:46:45
|
2024-12-31T10:56:40
|
2024-12-31T10:56:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wzuvJsDqCm6gAX6lFjOr
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $900 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
|
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-927c3c0aefbf
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-98a5a078ff85
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-month-of-55e1ab4dbdc4
|
2024-05-06T05:46:35
|
2024-12-31T10:57:07
|
2024-12-31T10:57:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oOX6RI9nKFAIdEjuRM7M
|
Will Kristi Noem suggest that any other living dogs should be killed before the Republican National Convention?
|
Resolves YES if Kristi Noem suggests that a dog other than President Biden's dog Commander should be killed before close.
Appearing on CBS’s “Face the Nation,” Ms. Noem, a Republican, suggested that Commander, who was banished from the White House last fall after bloodying a number of Secret Service agents, should also have been put down.
“Joe Biden’s dog has attacked 24 Secret Service people,” she told her interviewer, Margaret Brennan. “So how many people is enough people to be attacked and dangerously hurt before you make a decision on a dog?”
[...]
Imagining becoming president in 2025 and sending Mr. Biden’s dog to meet his maker, Ms. Noem added: “Commander, say hello to Cricket for me.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/05/us/politics/kristi-noem-biden-dog.html
|
2024-05-05T18:01:26
|
2024-07-15T12:43:46
|
2024-07-15T12:44:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pXRpyP5lmXm4O67mgSkt
|
Will Nintendo's successor to the Switch contain "Switch" in its name?
|
Resolves YES if the Nintendo console superseding the Switch contains the word "Switch" in the name. This includes names like "Switch Pro", "Switch 2", "Switch AI", "ReSwitch", or anything else that contains the substring "switch" (case-insensitive).
Resolves NO if the Nintendo console superseding the Switch does not contain the word "Switch" in any form.
This will only resolve for consoles superseding the Switch (e.g. a console that can play games current models of the Switch cannot play).
|
2024-05-05T14:30:18
|
2025-01-16T08:41:54
|
2025-01-16T08:41:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NiNDuExMwYh7EbMEXWL5
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 8th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-05-05T14:16:40
|
2024-06-08T20:59:00
|
2024-06-09T12:11:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KeP3HIWSr3x5T7aQDLzN
|
Will Bitcoin be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debate?
|
Only official, public presidential debates including two major candidates count.
Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate.
No variants count in this market, only the word "bitcoin" or "bitcoins".
|
2024-05-05T10:59:38
|
2024-11-24T20:59:00
|
2024-12-03T13:50:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4iDxt5SOffBcwFzB7x9C
|
[Metaculus] Before July, will the ICC issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant or Halevi?
|
Before July 1, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/23018/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if before July 1, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as No otherwise.
Benjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)
Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister)
Herzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-05-05T09:56:23
|
2024-07-02T06:00:00
|
2024-07-02T11:28:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P83RaNEQRtN6T9uBDXxJ
|
Will the 5-state Busy Beaver be known by 2025-01-01?
|
This question resolves YES if the Busy Beaver Challenge has been completed by the close date, as determined by some page on the bbchallenge.org website indicating that all 5-state Turing Machines have been decided. An exception is that if all machines are decided, but the Busy Beaver is still not known (due to multiple machines being known to halt but it being unclear which runs longest), that will not be enough to resolve the market YES.
If the website is defunct, statements by Scott Aaronson, peer reviewed papers, or other methods may be used to resolve the question if needed.
This is a near- duplicate of @/BoltonBailey/will-the-5state-busy-beaver-be-know but for a later close date.
As of question writing, there are 2833 officially undecided machines, with a Coq proof not yet officially accepted that claims to prove all but 1 machine (Skelet's #17).
|
2024-05-05T08:56:04
|
2024-07-02T07:32:22
|
2024-07-02T07:32:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cfKgU2QZp2b6jYiCzttr
|
Will the 2024 election be a 2020 rematch?
|
Resolves to YES iff:
Both Joe Biden and Donald Trump are on the ballot as presidential candidates for their respective major parties in 2024’s general election
Both are alive and in good health (I.e. able to serve as president) at the close of Election Day
|
2024-05-05T05:17:41
|
2024-11-06T01:54:15
|
2024-11-06T01:54:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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