id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-6dwu9i91o9xSZIjtCn5Q | Will "delve" be said by anyone in a US presidential debate in 2024? | Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate. Any variant of delve counts: delves, delved, delving, delve.
If there are no Presidential debates in 2024 this will resolve to No.
For reference, "delve" wasn't mentioned during the 2020 debate: https://www.rev.com... | 2024-05-04T20:14:54 | 2024-11-06T19:58:16 | 2024-11-06T19:58:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dtKohyEUx62YvQ9xZkxX | Will a Palestinian flag be visible during the Eurovision Song Contest finals? | Eurovision organizers have said Palestinian flags wont be allowed and anyone who tries to bring a Palestinian flag or a sign with a political message will be stopped at the entrance by guards.
This question resolves YES if a Palestinian flag can be seen on TV during the Eurovision Song Contest finals broadcast. | 2024-05-04T09:42:21 | 2024-05-12T15:04:00 | 2024-05-12T15:04:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EhTuuqgLiM1cTBY0vt73 | Will Daniel Ricciardo have a seat for the 2025 Formula 1 season? | For a positive resolution, Riccardo must have a confirmed primary racing seat for the 2025 Formula 1 season.
Fine print: The market will resolve YES if both Riccardo and a Formula 1 team confirm that a contract has been signed for the 2025 season. The market resolves NO if all available seats for the 2025 season have... | 2024-05-03T16:19:50 | 2024-12-28T02:58:05 | 2024-12-28T02:58:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lh4jofJQU0LIgPqtoUGr | Will turnout in the 2024 general election be HIGHER than in the 2019 general election? | Turnout in the 2019 general election across the UK was 67.3%, therefore if the turnout in 2024 is higher than 67.3%, then this question will resolve as YES, if the turnout in 2024 is lower than 67.3%, then this question will resolve as NO and if the turnout is 67.3%, then all bets will be returned. | 2024-05-03T08:40:16 | 2024-07-05T02:24:39 | 2024-07-05T02:24:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yIsVQbDKnLuBAy26zFtE | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 7th? | End of day for Israel | 2024-05-02T22:17:51 | 2024-06-07T20:59:00 | 2024-06-08T15:21:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ddzfWVeulb3uulh6Vx0L | Will Hasan Piker and Destiny debate on Piers Morgan's show before the end of 2024? | Piers Morgan is trying to set up the debate, and Destiny said yes already | 2024-05-02T21:59:04 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:54:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uknLPZCh0ezrFKDJFQKJ | Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of May 2024 | Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 EST on May 31, 2024
Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to:
Technological singularity
Spontaneous combustion
Transmutation into a higher s... | 2024-05-02T21:16:19 | 2024-05-31T21:59:00 | 2024-06-04T14:26:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rSyNh32hX4016oEW0Izy | Will Ukraine deploy F-16 fighter jets in Ukrainian airspace before June 21, 2024? | This market predicts whether Ukraine will deploy F-16 fighter jets in its national airspace before June 21, 2024. The resolution of this question hinges on credible reports from major global news organizations or official statements from the Ukrainian government or military confirming the deployment of F-16 jets for an... | 2024-05-02T14:22:44 | 2024-06-21T05:05:18 | 2024-06-21T05:05:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Lb7e8tbU4AfQprfIqxJp | Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-02T11:44:51 | 2024-12-01T20:59:00 | 2024-12-01T21:05:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P8XDlVq05lw128oU9IGH | Will Donald Trump win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-02T11:44:31 | 2024-11-06T12:53:30 | 2024-11-06T12:53:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wd5aY5tpo4GxBE1KqKFU | Will Columbia cancel graduation? | Can include mid-ceremony disturbance that cancels the rest of the event. Must be permanent cancellation and not just rescheduling/postponement. | 2024-05-02T08:00:41 | 2024-05-08T07:12:43 | 2024-05-08T07:12:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E72ByPiJJNLVJp0uBZd8 | Will the Netherlands have a new prime minister by the end of May? | Will resolve 'YES' of a Mark Rutte has resigned and has been replaced by a new prime minister by May 31. | 2024-05-02T01:15:32 | 2024-05-31T14:59:00 | 2024-06-01T02:08:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EbL0f9R4A2oWRdQy8oHz | Are we about to enter into a recession or a market crash? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-01T19:07:59 | 2024-05-30T21:59:00 | 2024-07-31T16:30:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JP2FkouOvHPf9NwwXJS2 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 8, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-05-01T14:06:50 | 2024-05-08T13:27:44 | 2024-05-08T13:27:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-taV7hV305SoecDA54rlf | Will Destiny talk to Sneako in May 2024? | After his debate with Destiny about age of consent
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/3eHUONosazg)Sneako has expressed interest in debating Zionism with Destiny
[tweet]Will Destiny talk to Sneako by the end of May 2024? It must be in voice call or in person. Any instance of Destiny directing his words to Sneako will co... | 2024-05-01T13:28:37 | 2024-05-05T17:39:07 | 2024-05-05T17:39:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ylAAHM4jLDG9hizUhBHM | Will Elon Musk rise to richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires? | Related question:
Will Elon Musk fall to 4th richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires?
Reference:
Forbes Real time billionaires | 2024-05-01T08:23:52 | 2024-05-30T14:09:23 | 2024-05-30T14:09:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FtVOVvmMfrp3cMbIPdFe | Will Helsinki, Finland average temperature for May 2024 be higher than average (1991-2020)? | Compared to the average between 1991-2020, will the temperature anomaly for May 2024 in Helsinki be positive (it means warmer than average month; resolves to YES) or negative (it means colder than average month; resolves to NO)?
I will resolve this when the official statistics update at https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi... | 2024-05-01T02:30:39 | 2024-05-31T13:59:00 | 2024-06-01T05:11:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JObijq71JPpjvZsB6Whw | Will bitcoin go below $55000 in May 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-30T22:07:44 | 2024-05-31T23:59:00 | 2024-06-01T11:07:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j62IkG1KGESjcPXtozND | Israel:Hamas ceasefire in May? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸 | This is my 4th!!! time making this market. For the love of whichever God you believe in, please let this one finally be a YES.
At any point in the month of May will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual ces... | 2024-04-30T21:09:08 | 2024-05-31T23:53:27 | 2024-05-31T23:53:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9GWNRF8irjSGelvbxXBY | Will OpenAI have an event before May 15? | Leak Source:
[image]Contrary to making the resolution of this prediction happen on the exact date of the 'leak', to make it harder, the resolution will be 'YES' when such an event takes place before May 15 and will be 'NO' if nothing comes to fruition before May 15.
Constraint: The event has to be of a similar stand... | 2024-04-30T20:18:20 | 2024-05-13T10:26:58 | 2024-05-13T10:26:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bUUi9e6L4AiSXbiXfTpE | Trump VP pick by May 3? | If Donald Trump picks a VP by May 3 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO. | 2024-04-30T19:26:59 | 2024-05-03T10:13:10 | 2024-05-03T10:13:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2j2gV2BRkjBNCx4phcDC | Will Nvidia stock end the month of May at $1000 or more? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-30T15:46:34 | 2024-05-31T17:26:54 | 2024-05-31T17:26:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pKS80aBXPYguHkAzaW4x | Will Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) post at least 1 time on X/Twitter in 2024? | DJT has not posted since August 2023, and before that January 2021. Will he post at least once in 2024?
It must be from @realdonaldtrump, not any other associated account. | 2024-04-30T15:18:53 | 2024-08-12T09:08:42 | 2024-08-12T09:08:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vms15yy4ppjAADvH0wuc | Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister? | Will Larry, a cat who is currently 17, live to see the next Prime Minister of the UK?
Currently, Larry has served under five prime minister and two monarchs. He has been in his position longer than a majority of the members of the House of Commons.
| 2024-04-30T13:46:17 | 2024-07-05T11:59:18 | 2024-07-05T11:59:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MrocXF6CpxuOdTPY0Ghz | Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day? | US drug control agency will move to reclassify marijuana in a historic shift, AP sources say
This question will resolve Yes if, before November 5th, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US.
Note that this resolves based on when the final rule takes effect, not whe... | 2024-04-30T10:55:23 | 2024-11-05T10:51:24 | 2024-11-05T10:51:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DhDkfrH8gRQmoZqz2LBv | Will Eminem’s upcoming album debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | Based on the Billboard 200 chart, will Eminem’s new album be #1 in the first week that it’s eligible?
The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce) | 2024-04-30T07:39:28 | 2024-07-21T18:43:42 | 2024-07-21T18:43:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ylcVXSNJ1JarBwrAjASH | Will Trump be sentenced to prison for violating a gag order? | [tweet]This market will resolve YES if Trump is sentenced to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest, for violating any gag order from any court in 2024. If not, resolves NO on January 1st, 2025.
Being sentenced to prison for any other reason won't resolve YES. Also, this question is only about whether Trump is sentence... | 2024-04-30T06:57:27 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:44:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iTyTYpeKuFcdV6UEbrr7 | Will Tesla shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk's 2018 pay package during the 2024 annual meeting on June 13? | This resolves Yes if the shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk's 2018 pay package during the 2024 annual meeting on June 13. Resolves No if they don't
This market closes at 3pm CST on June 13
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-asks-shareholders-reinstate-elon-musks-pay-move-texas
(https://manifold.markets/emb... | 2024-04-29T23:23:27 | 2024-06-13T13:00:00 | 2024-06-13T14:35:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jV9y3yuh9Y302BAtkr0o | Will Kilauea erupt by the end of May 2024? | Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Any eruption of Kilauea qualifies, not just eruptions into its summit caldera. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"By then end of" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone) and includes any time after the start of the ... | 2024-04-29T22:54:49 | 2024-06-01T02:59:00 | 2024-06-01T06:11:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x9NA4D4NNHet6zcqLIfD | Will Google/Samsung/Apple/MS announce a non-phone AI device, like the R1 Rabbit or Humane AI Pin, before September? | It must be a new portable gadget with an AI assistant capable of answering user questions as a central feature, much like the Rabbit R1 or Humane AI Pin. This can't be a smartphone but it could be a smartwatch, a revival of the iPod brand, etc.
Coverage of the announcement must draw comparisons between the announced d... | 2024-04-29T20:35:51 | 2024-09-01T18:47:00 | 2024-09-07T08:09:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MuB1V11BDoixilYmfPWx | Will evidence come out to show "gpt2-chatbot" was created and/or posted by OpenAI before the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if
Open AI makes a statement
Any Open AI employee confirms it
A credible leak that is corroborated by at least one independent source
[image] | 2024-04-29T19:40:18 | 2024-05-13T10:48:08 | 2024-05-13T10:48:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-296ybaLp6xskH4pApIaQ | Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent. | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-29T18:24:48 | 2024-11-05T19:40:00 | 2024-11-12T10:52:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5NIRh4RcEgq5XOHuZ0Il | Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024? | @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
[image] | 2024-04-29T09:51:58 | 2024-07-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-01T08:38:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xxtKC8ZiLHAv0ArF18BN | Will Extropic's Guillaume Verdon aka BasedBeffJezos step down or otherwise be removed from his position by May 31? | @basedbeffjezos posted an "interesting first look" ~8 minute long video on x, highlighting the company's fancy sounding tech.
https://twitter.com/BasedBeffJezos/status/1784296645074559125
Additionally, a 40+ minute long video was posted interviewing him.
The above is context for this question; if Verdon makes a sta... | 2024-04-28T17:37:06 | 2024-05-31T23:59:00 | 2024-06-01T07:13:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cj0CPk63Wfwst1y1noo2 | Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of May 2024? | @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7
[image] | 2024-04-28T17:09:36 | 2024-05-31T17:26:09 | 2024-05-31T17:26:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo | Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024? | Resoles YES if the ICC issues the warrant and it is considered active before the end of 2024.
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d
[image] | 2024-04-28T17:08:29 | 2024-11-21T07:47:42 | 2024-11-21T07:47:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dHVVLZWzKpzIcjC6rRzw | Will a second regional US bank fail in 2024? | Republic First Bank failed on 26th April 2024, will one (or more) other US banks fail in 2024?
Resolves YES if one more entry dated 2024 appears here:
https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/ | 2024-04-28T14:18:18 | 2024-10-22T15:15:10 | 2024-10-22T15:15:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WHqtjM0MgQkrrFVhlFPd | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $72,500 in May 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-28T12:16:20 | 2024-05-31T20:59:00 | 2024-06-01T10:35:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b1ZohoLLL41epi7QI3Ct | [Metaculus] Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22576/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) ... | 2024-04-28T07:55:27 | 2024-06-02T06:00:00 | 2024-06-03T05:07:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bu5lPJgcgXbPKKnXhH3s | Will bitcoin be above $66,666 at the end of June 2024? | Resolves based on Google BTC price at EOD ET. | 2024-04-28T07:02:01 | 2024-06-30T20:59:00 | 2024-06-30T21:29:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V9JXUt5DUKKfdSCrCaJ1 | Will Giving What We Can reach 10,000 active 10% pledges in 2024? | Resolves based on the number under "Lifetime members" at https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/members, which is 8,850 as of market creation on 28th April 2024.
Fake pledges or other attempts at manipulation won't be counted, according to the best of my judgment. | 2024-04-28T02:02:24 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:13:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r2r7qPssWqNz64MBTv2W | If Trump and Biden have a debate, will RFK Jr. participate? | If Trump and Biden participate in a nationally televised debate in which RFK Jr. is also a participant, this market will resolve YES. If Trump and Biden have debate(s), but RFK Jr. is not present at atleast one, this market will resolve NO.
If Trump and Biden don't have a debate before the election, this market resolv... | 2024-04-27T11:40:31 | 2024-06-28T08:11:32 | 2024-06-28T08:11:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Og5VAg85K0LyL6NOd1Mq | Will Russia open new front in 2024? | By opening new front I mean ground troops assault or naval invasion in the south with the goal of long-term occupation through the blue line. It's decided by general consensus in the media and sites like live map ua.
[image] | 2024-04-27T10:06:14 | 2025-01-01T02:02:15 | 2025-01-01T02:02:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mX9OFKPKnKS0Aw2Eu2zQ | Will Ethereum ETF be approved before the January 1st, 2025? | It's up to Gary or the SEC. | 2024-04-27T00:46:55 | 2024-11-14T22:58:58 | 2024-11-14T22:58:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0wCwiZRzWUYJp0HesIgq | Will Democrats keep the presidency AND have a net gain in Congress? | Resolves YES if Democrats keep the presidency AND percentage_of_senate_are_Democrats + percentage_of_house_are_Democrats is higher after the 2024 elections than before. Independents who caucus with the Democrats will be considered Democrats.
Resolves NO if Democrats lose the presidency.
Resolves NO if percentage_of_s... | 2024-04-26T23:56:47 | 2024-11-05T22:06:37 | 2024-11-06T00:00:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps | Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US? | Resolution will be based on this Google Trends page, which compares the Search Topic Elon Musk to the Search Topic Kanye West in the United States in the past 90 days.
[image]Kanye is currently ahead of Elon. This market resolves YES If Elon is shown to be ahead of Kanye during any day in May using these same paramete... | 2024-04-26T17:38:37 | 2024-06-01T10:11:00 | 2024-06-11T12:36:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BDgJw5t2gfP7zyHWfahs | Will Trump be locked up before his lockup expires? | In the "truth social" (DJT) IPO, Trump has shares that are locked up. He cannot trade them until this lockup expires. In criminal trials, he is facing felony charges. Will he be in jail before his lockup expires? | 2024-04-26T15:19:17 | 2024-09-19T19:15:35 | 2024-09-19T19:16:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GK1ORbRgfDqc2TwZ6ft5 | Will Tadej Pojacar pull off the Giro-Tour double? | Last person was Marco Pantani in 1998. | 2024-04-26T14:14:20 | 2024-07-21T12:20:48 | 2024-07-21T12:20:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hsV4zj8hrJKTjpdYMq8f | Will the dictatorship in Venezuela lose power before 2025? | July 2024 presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. Faced with the political disqualification of Maria Corina Machado, the main leader of the opposition, the opposition coalition managed to register a presidential candidate who, in principle, will face Nicolas Maduro in the elections. | 2024-04-26T12:41:49 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-07T11:57:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3qFp8bbtve04qjqihprl | Will Israel claim that Oct 7 hostages are being held in West Bank in 2024? | Resolves "Yes" if at any point in 2024, a member of the Israeli government claims that some of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, 2023 are now being held in the West Bank | 2024-04-26T12:08:53 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-06T19:52:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RgynSm9cjrv02Z4oY20p | Will Apple announce VisionOS 2 at WWDC 2024? | Apple typically announces the next generation of their operating systems every year at WWDC, will they do they same for VisionOS this year?
For a positive resolution Apple must announce a significant software update to VisionOS at the WWDC 2024 main keynote that brings version 2.0. A new naming scheme similar to that ... | 2024-04-26T11:31:19 | 2024-06-10T12:50:25 | 2024-06-10T12:50:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5zvgt3daUkeiB3p1hfuQ | GPT 5/4.5 announced in May | Must be an official announcement not just hints can be either GPT 5 or 4.5 | 2024-04-26T09:34:25 | 2024-05-31T20:59:00 | 2024-08-20T22:14:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Blc8yNkAVapn8ou7ifN | Will a UK General Election be announced between Sunday 28th April and Sunday 5th May 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-26T08:39:13 | 2024-05-06T01:50:35 | 2024-05-06T01:50:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8dlYRTFcSlCItFszRDaJ | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of May 10th 2024? | Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos | 2024-04-26T07:46:13 | 2024-04-29T17:59:30 | 2024-04-29T17:59:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CsBU8et9ydQjZFyyGg56 | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 24? | Resolves YES if Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal on both sides.
Market ends at the end of day for Israel, using Israel time zone. | 2024-04-25T21:27:21 | 2024-05-24T14:29:27 | 2024-05-24T14:29:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HhCYHgrxOSJSwxxj4uhl | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May? | Going by Israel time zone | 2024-04-25T21:14:24 | 2024-05-31T14:59:00 | 2024-05-31T17:42:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IBqF04yoH2jrn5RIJHOb | [Metaculus] Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? | Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22633/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report ... | 2024-04-25T18:17:18 | 2024-04-30T11:57:35 | 2024-04-30T11:57:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TpTpJK5APR0P8NMuVrC1 | Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024? | In 2024, according to Wikipedia, 2 American have ever already contracted H5N1 (avian bird flu), in 2022 and 2024; neither has died (of the disease). Will an American die of H5N1 this year?
See sibling:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-another-america-die-of-h5n1-in) | 2024-04-25T18:15:53 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:10:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tHHRVeUUeJfaInK9RHZ6 | Will Luffy use gear 4 again before he leaves egghead island? | Vote YES if you think Luffy will use gear 4 before he’s on a ship that has departed from egghead. (After he used it against the seraphim).
Vote NO if you think Luffy will not use gear 4 before he’s on a ship that has departed from egghead. | 2024-04-25T15:07:25 | 2024-07-24T20:59:00 | 2024-09-10T08:56:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9fZT2bGy9LuBiozaj6Af | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of April 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-25T14:47:15 | 2024-04-30T16:34:29 | 2024-04-30T16:34:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p4zVg8owHHpOvYhDV4vo | Will Biden be ahead of Trump on 538's national poll at the end of Trump's Birthday? (June 14) | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ | 2024-04-25T13:41:35 | 2024-06-14T20:31:50 | 2024-06-14T20:31:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3e8398d5fb00
| 2024-04-25T07:41:25 | 2024-06-30T18:36:30 | 2024-06-30T18:36:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RQ9IxFxkxoHxU0HGnbak | Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of May? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7
@/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3e8398d5fb... | 2024-04-25T07:40:53 | 2024-05-31T17:24:16 | 2024-05-31T17:24:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wZEfWjJiKCFgF2xBf73x | Will Jackie & Shadow's eggs hatch? 🥚|🦅 Big Bear Valley Bald Eagles | [image]Jackie is a female bald eagle with a nest located about 145 feet up in a Jeffrey Pine tree in Big Bear Valley in the San Bernardino Mountains. Her current partner is Shadow.
WATCH LIVE NEST CAM:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4-L2nfGcuE
Resolves YES if one or more of her eggs hatch as reported by a credible... | 2024-04-25T06:19:56 | 2025-03-04T09:30:42 | 2025-03-04T09:30:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yfjDbFTVY3RN7qJbVSvE | Will student Gaza protests directly result in at least one student death caused by police by August 1st? | In order for a death to be "caused by police" it only must have been the direct result of police actions (firing a gun, swinging a baton, etc.). It does not have to be the "first cause". American universities only. The student themselves need not be American. "Police" will be interpreted liberally, does not need to be ... | 2024-04-25T00:21:49 | 2024-07-31T23:11:08 | 2024-07-31T23:11:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QMUtdhSZtkN3Bd76BoSw | Will Kharkiv fall to Russian forces in 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-24T17:09:40 | 2024-12-31T02:59:00 | 2024-12-31T11:37:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Eze4lgqdIq7MGiHUslIS | Will Kanye West release a porn video to consumers before the end of 2024? | https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1783277581946769768
can be free or paid
[image] | 2024-04-24T16:46:51 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:55:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v8KDOyKabhxTuIQ0dSKJ | Will Kendrick drop a diss track for Drake before April 30? | Who you got? Aubrey or Kungfu Kenny? Will the dot show up or fold. https://drizzyvsdot.com/ | 2024-04-24T13:36:20 | 2024-04-30T09:10:04 | 2024-04-30T09:10:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y8tAyIVtTxnVg1BoonVy | Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-24T09:57:12 | 2024-05-25T09:00:59 | 2024-05-25T09:00:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2UaQmxGarSdFdcvhVzHS | Will Manchester United win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-24T09:56:43 | 2024-05-25T09:00:49 | 2024-05-25T09:00:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ayItxgs6ZhO0rkUURAeu | Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween? | Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ | 2024-04-24T08:34:48 | 2024-10-31T19:49:07 | 2024-10-31T19:49:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z1GN0uwK9PbFMqGoZEs5 | Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024? | This market is trying to track real price change. If there is split or reverse split, the price will be treated as no split or reverse split happen.
Edited: On June 10th, this market will adjust to $200 to make comparison logic before split and after split match as mentioned above “no split happen” | 2024-04-24T04:41:01 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:29:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q99fWp0NUMxpPhIyoC6e | Will Nvidia hit $950 again by May 15th 11:59PM | The predict will be RESOLVED today by 11:59PM EST as
YES if the price >=$950 sometime,
NO if the price always < $950
according to the data publish from NASDAQ | 2024-04-24T04:22:16 | 2024-05-15T14:22:22 | 2024-05-15T14:22:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hGyKJkX1j2PHHwoycuvS | Will Zendaya get an Oscar nomination for her role in Challengers? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-23T20:47:15 | 2025-01-23T11:08:34 | 2025-01-23T11:08:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sfGPvlWYSyoenDd2k6DA | Will the FBI open an investigation into Columbia University related to anti-semitism on campus in 2024? | If before Dec 31st 2024 at 11:59pm will the FBI open an investigation into any students, faculty or individuals who participated in any protests or events that involve some sort of anti-semetic messaging as reported by major new media companies. | 2024-04-23T15:36:42 | 2024-12-31T21:38:31 | 2024-12-31T21:38:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AczRbv2gih0lwY0HkaTi | Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus? | https://twitter.com/GaryMarcus/status/1782844845788451253
https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard | 2024-04-23T13:25:35 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-06T06:52:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yTcXT7gVssLGIBbB7lNt | Will Macron swim in the Seine river before September 1st, 2024? | French President Macron has promised to swim in the Paris river... Will he actually do it?
https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/03/01/macron-promises-to-swim-in-seine-to-show-off-olympic-cleanup_6574911_7.html | 2024-04-23T05:00:40 | 2024-09-01T20:59:00 | 2024-09-02T02:44:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tDiuBd2GoRhccHsvERBl | Will Trump nominate a woman for his VP pick? | Will Donald Trump name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election?
YES: his selection is a person who identifies as "woman"
NO: his selection is a person or entity that does not identify as "woman" | 2024-04-22T18:48:05 | 2024-07-15T13:09:59 | 2024-07-15T13:09:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lOdmOUvSdmwmbpo82Sxb | Will Bitcoin increase in May 2024? | If CoinGecko's historical data states that the closing price of Bitcoin on May 31st, 2024 is higher than the closing price on April 30th, 2024 ($60,749) then this question will resolve 'YES'.
Otherwise, it will resolve 'NO'.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data
| 2024-04-22T18:10:48 | 2024-05-31T20:59:00 | 2024-06-01T14:43:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IFt1AHT7kfegzXmCokdB | Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2024? | The market is inspired by the latest news reports about possible Ramzan disease.
I will not bet on this market.
Resolution criteria:
1. Positive Resolution (YES): The market should resolve as "YES" if Ramzan Kadyrov is officially holding the position of the head of the Chechen Republic at 23:59 local time on Decembe... | 2024-04-22T13:32:54 | 2024-12-30T12:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:03:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-grpFeFtlD2UhWy0RLwEc | Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of National Girlfriend Day? (August 1st) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-22T11:59:48 | 2024-08-01T20:59:00 | 2024-08-01T21:54:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-81UbATjlA18oyhMQr3as | Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of July 4th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-22T11:47:15 | 2024-07-04T19:19:51 | 2024-07-04T19:19:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KsOtGPzFqvW9y0bPmYTS | Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | If Perez gets more Points in the 2024 Formula 1 Season this market resolves to yes.
If both drivers have the same amount of Points at the end of this Season this market resolves N/A. | 2024-04-22T06:40:33 | 2024-11-24T04:24:04 | 2024-11-24T04:24:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9asH4CWdzFFphQTHV4KX | Will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate for US President before announcing her next album? | Will Taylor Swift endorse a singular Presidential candidate in the 2024 election before announcing her next album?
For endorsements, she must name a singular candidate who is running in the 2024 election. She can say “I’m voting for Trump” or “You should vote for Biden” or “RFK Jr. is the best candidate running for Pr... | 2024-04-22T05:10:50 | 2024-09-10T20:26:49 | 2024-09-10T20:26:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UGuNEUtNpZdFEO0wEt5R | Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie? | He is known for having a gun in his titular video game. Resolves YES if he has posession of a gun during the movie
will resolve 50 if there is debated uncertainty by my judgement
[image][image] | 2024-04-21T19:36:01 | 2024-12-20T08:40:34 | 2024-12-20T08:40:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uzqNqxpr1Mcv2pn0j829 | Will any candidate receive more than 45% of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election? | Resolution deadline will be extended in the case that the answer is not yet clear. | 2024-04-21T14:13:10 | 2024-11-09T20:30:34 | 2024-11-09T20:30:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9hzf5ATg4WSIOSU6Josh | Will the Drug Enforcement Administration announce before election day that it is going to reschedule marijuana? | This market resolves YES if the Drug Enforcement Administration announces before November 5th that it intends to remove Marijuana from its current Schedule I Drug status.
This would likely be in the form of a Notice of Proposed Rule-making, after which there would be some weeks or months for the public to comment on ... | 2024-04-21T13:40:19 | 2024-05-16T12:26:01 | 2024-05-16T12:26:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A7iUNT3WqJAGnoelFq9n | [Metaculus] Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? | Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20773/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if third-party credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge:
has been made... | 2024-04-21T11:17:12 | 2025-01-02T14:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:59:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GzX4LutrLZrK3f1azbaE | Will Trump be found guilty of a crime by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2026, the 10th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet? | [image]@/strutheo/will-donald-trump-be-found-guilty-o-1e118dc1d96d | 2024-04-21T06:59:56 | 2024-05-30T14:20:52 | 2024-05-30T14:20:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-O3nx4pgyk3r0wdej0OPm | Will Trump be found guilty of a crime by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2025, the 9th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet? | [image]@/strutheo/will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri-c4ca829394bc | 2024-04-21T06:46:59 | 2024-05-30T14:22:23 | 2024-05-30T14:22:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VeGo19qQcMC4fqBg4rRR | Will there be another use of police to break up a Gaza protest on a US college campus by June? | Context: NYPD breaks up pro-Palestinian protest at Columbia University
Will police be used to break up another collegiate Gaza war protest before June?
The police must be associated with a metro, state, or national law enforcement agency (including NYPD, LAPD, California Highway Patrol, Border Patrol, ICE, CIA, FBI, ... | 2024-04-21T04:03:52 | 2024-04-25T16:24:02 | 2024-04-25T16:24:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8N5fdSmv5haPupI8DKg3 | Will GPT-5 not be announced in the month of April? | OpenAI has recently made some hints that there may be an April release, however, if GPT-5 truly is the behemoth it is proclaimed to be, then these hints would be a bit underwhelming for the announcement that is yet to come.
AshutoshShrivastava on X: "Is OpenAI hinting at the release of GPT-5, or could something else... | 2024-04-21T02:57:49 | 2024-05-02T08:13:03 | 2024-05-03T05:22:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SNJuELw948wRKM6c4ssR | Will Humane AI come out with a second product by 2026? | Will Humane AI come out with a second hardware product, including either a new product line or another generation of the AI Pin? | 2024-04-20T18:53:22 | 2025-02-23T10:51:31 | 2025-02-23T10:51:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bTrUM3QNuqKkzBUh8xWa | Will Nvidia stock end the year at $750 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split) | @/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1-1eb2bac9cef5
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1-a448020dc4da | 2024-04-20T17:21:43 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T13:55:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U3K6qpp4tvhO6ZeQY0VJ | Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Penciling In 0.75% Total Rate Cut During 2024? | Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Penciling In 0.75% Total Rate Cut During 2024?
Resolution:
Resolves YES If They Cut 0.75% In Total
Resolves NO If They Cut Less than 0.75% In Total
Resolves NO If They Cut More than 0.75% In Total
CONTEXT:
Fed holds rates steady but indicat... | 2024-04-20T15:15:19 | 2024-12-18T11:00:00 | 2024-12-18T11:40:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7pz37pLT8cfVSdiuwmMO | Will King Charles still be alive by JULY 31ST | King Charles who is 75 is king of England currently has been reported of having cancer | 2024-04-20T15:03:10 | 2024-07-31T15:59:00 | 2024-08-01T08:32:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-23YBMVSpyRqG48RLkQVs | Will Ding Liren defend his World Chess Championship title? | EDIT: Defend as in to show up to the match. He doesn't necessarily need to win. | 2024-04-20T14:24:12 | 2024-11-20T17:48:53 | 2024-11-20T17:48:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vplOienanSuodHgI6DYU | Will Elon Musk fall to 4th richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires? | Tesla Stock is undergoing big pressure going down. Meta AI/Cloud service has been going many years, possibly they will announce some kind of AI market, AI driven gaming, or AI center hardware that is backed by its Meta cloud in the future. To me, it's very likely Elon Musk will fall to 4th place some day.
But Elon Mu... | 2024-04-20T09:59:15 | 2024-08-04T04:41:49 | 2024-08-04T04:41:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HBHTu3VGsPtIZOP4i5Vt | Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024? | There have been two individuals this year who have self immolated for political reasons in the United States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-immolation_of_Aaron_Bushnell
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68863157.amp | 2024-04-20T08:09:48 | 2024-09-14T19:55:46 | 2024-09-14T19:55:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EhHu7zfhjYE4OouWtXnI | [Metaculus] Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? | Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the t... | 2024-04-20T07:13:33 | 2024-05-22T11:56:16 | 2024-05-22T11:56:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
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