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mani-6dwu9i91o9xSZIjtCn5Q
Will "delve" be said by anyone in a US presidential debate in 2024?
Including moderators, only during the actual debate, not the pre- or post- discussions of the debate. Any variant of delve counts: delves, delved, delving, delve. If there are no Presidential debates in 2024 this will resolve to No. For reference, "delve" wasn't mentioned during the 2020 debate: https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/donald-trump-joe-biden-final-presidential-debate-transcript-2020
2024-05-04T20:14:54
2024-11-06T19:58:16
2024-11-06T19:58:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dtKohyEUx62YvQ9xZkxX
Will a Palestinian flag be visible during the Eurovision Song Contest finals?
Eurovision organizers have said Palestinian flags wont be allowed and anyone who tries to bring a Palestinian flag or a sign with a political message will be stopped at the entrance by guards. This question resolves YES if a Palestinian flag can be seen on TV during the Eurovision Song Contest finals broadcast.
2024-05-04T09:42:21
2024-05-12T15:04:00
2024-05-12T15:04:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EhTuuqgLiM1cTBY0vt73
Will Daniel Ricciardo have a seat for the 2025 Formula 1 season?
For a positive resolution, Riccardo must have a confirmed primary racing seat for the 2025 Formula 1 season.  Fine print: The market will resolve YES if both Riccardo and a Formula 1 team confirm that a contract has been signed for the 2025 season. The market resolves NO if all available seats for the 2025 season have been filled and Riccardo is not confirmed for any seat.
2024-05-03T16:19:50
2024-12-28T02:58:05
2024-12-28T02:58:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Lh4jofJQU0LIgPqtoUGr
Will turnout in the 2024 general election be HIGHER than in the 2019 general election?
Turnout in the 2019 general election across the UK was 67.3%, therefore if the turnout in 2024 is higher than 67.3%, then this question will resolve as YES, if the turnout in 2024 is lower than 67.3%, then this question will resolve as NO and if the turnout is 67.3%, then all bets will be returned.
2024-05-03T08:40:16
2024-07-05T02:24:39
2024-07-05T02:24:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yIsVQbDKnLuBAy26zFtE
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of June 7th?
End of day for Israel
2024-05-02T22:17:51
2024-06-07T20:59:00
2024-06-08T15:21:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ddzfWVeulb3uulh6Vx0L
Will Hasan Piker and Destiny debate on Piers Morgan's show before the end of 2024?
Piers Morgan is trying to set up the debate, and Destiny said yes already
2024-05-02T21:59:04
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T15:54:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uknLPZCh0ezrFKDJFQKJ
Will Jimmy Carter exist at the end of May 2024
Resolves "Yes" if we have reason to believe Jimmy Carter was alive and existing at 11:59 EST on May 31, 2024 Resolves "No" if any of the followings things cause Jimmy Carter to stop existing. These things include, but are not limited to: Technological singularity Spontaneous combustion Transmutation into a higher state of existence. If there are any other circumstances that might resolve this No you are curious about feel free to ask in the comments. Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
2024-05-02T21:16:19
2024-05-31T21:59:00
2024-06-04T14:26:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rSyNh32hX4016oEW0Izy
Will Ukraine deploy F-16 fighter jets in Ukrainian airspace before June 21, 2024?
This market predicts whether Ukraine will deploy F-16 fighter jets in its national airspace before June 21, 2024. The resolution of this question hinges on credible reports from major global news organizations or official statements from the Ukrainian government or military confirming the deployment of F-16 jets for any purpose, including training, combat, or patrol missions within Ukrainian airspace. "Ukrainian airspace" for the purposes of this prediction market question includes all airspace above the land and territorial waters of Ukraine as internationally recognized prior to the conflict, including the airspace above disputed territories such as Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, and Zaporizhzhia. This definition extends to any region claimed by Ukraine as per 2nd of May 2024, despite current control or occupation by foreign powers or separatist groups. Resolution Criteria: Positive Resolution: The market will resolve positively if there is confirmed deployment of F-16 jets within Ukrainian airspace, as reported by reputable news sources such as Reuters, BBC, or similar, or through official communication from the Ukrainian government or military. The deployment must occur before June 21, 2024 00:00 CET. Negative Resolution: The market will resolve negatively if no such deployment has been confirmed by June 21, 2024. Clarifications: Deployment refers to F-16 jets taking off, landing, or flying within Ukrainian airspace. The resolution is based on the first confirmed instance of such deployment. Reports must be clear and specific about the use of F-16 jets, not other aircraft types.
2024-05-02T14:22:44
2024-06-21T05:05:18
2024-06-21T05:05:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Lb7e8tbU4AfQprfIqxJp
Will Donald Trump win Pennsylvania in the 2024 presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-05-02T11:44:51
2024-12-01T20:59:00
2024-12-01T21:05:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-P8XDlVq05lw128oU9IGH
Will Donald Trump win Georgia in the 2024 presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-05-02T11:44:31
2024-11-06T12:53:30
2024-11-06T12:53:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wd5aY5tpo4GxBE1KqKFU
Will Columbia cancel graduation?
Can include mid-ceremony disturbance that cancels the rest of the event. Must be permanent cancellation and not just rescheduling/postponement.
2024-05-02T08:00:41
2024-05-08T07:12:43
2024-05-08T07:12:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-E72ByPiJJNLVJp0uBZd8
Will the Netherlands have a new prime minister by the end of May?
Will resolve 'YES' of a Mark Rutte has resigned and has been replaced by a new prime minister by May 31.
2024-05-02T01:15:32
2024-05-31T14:59:00
2024-06-01T02:08:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EbL0f9R4A2oWRdQy8oHz
Are we about to enter into a recession or a market crash?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-05-01T19:07:59
2024-05-30T21:59:00
2024-07-31T16:30:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JP2FkouOvHPf9NwwXJS2
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on May 8, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-05-01T14:06:50
2024-05-08T13:27:44
2024-05-08T13:27:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-taV7hV305SoecDA54rlf
Will Destiny talk to Sneako in May 2024?
After his debate with Destiny about age of consent (https://www.youtube.com/embed/3eHUONosazg)Sneako has expressed interest in debating Zionism with Destiny [tweet]Will Destiny talk to Sneako by the end of May 2024? It must be in voice call or in person. Any instance of Destiny directing his words to Sneako will count.
2024-05-01T13:28:37
2024-05-05T17:39:07
2024-05-05T17:39:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ylAAHM4jLDG9hizUhBHM
Will Elon Musk rise to richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires?
Related question: Will Elon Musk fall to 4th richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires? Reference: Forbes Real time billionaires
2024-05-01T08:23:52
2024-05-30T14:09:23
2024-05-30T14:09:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FtVOVvmMfrp3cMbIPdFe
Will Helsinki, Finland average temperature for May 2024 be higher than average (1991-2020)?
Compared to the average between 1991-2020, will the temperature anomaly for May 2024 in Helsinki be positive (it means warmer than average month; resolves to YES) or negative (it means colder than average month; resolves to NO)? I will resolve this when the official statistics update at https://en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/statistics-from-1961-onwards
2024-05-01T02:30:39
2024-05-31T13:59:00
2024-06-01T05:11:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JObijq71JPpjvZsB6Whw
Will bitcoin go below $55000 in May 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-30T22:07:44
2024-05-31T23:59:00
2024-06-01T11:07:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-j62IkG1KGESjcPXtozND
Israel:Hamas ceasefire in May? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸
This is my 4th!!! time making this market. For the love of whichever God you believe in, please let this one finally be a YES. At any point in the month of May will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas? Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES: Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs Israel and Hamas end their war Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of May 31st, 2024.
2024-04-30T21:09:08
2024-05-31T23:53:27
2024-05-31T23:53:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9GWNRF8irjSGelvbxXBY
Will OpenAI have an event before May 15?
Leak Source: [image]Contrary to making the resolution of this prediction happen on the exact date of the 'leak', to make it harder, the resolution will be 'YES' when such an event takes place before May 15 and will be 'NO' if nothing comes to fruition before May 15. Constraint: The event has to be of a similar standard to how they conducted Dev Day, or in other words, it can be a public (edit: or even private this time) setting where an audience listens to OpenAI release or announce something. EDIT (May 11th, 2024): Just to elaborate, they need to have a physical audience, similar to how Dev Day was conducted. It can even consist solely of employees as the primary audience in their headquarters or any place, but livestream viewers don't count as part of the audience. So, there may be a traditional stage or not, where they will demonstrate what they're showcasing to the audience, which can be livestreamed or not.
2024-04-30T20:18:20
2024-05-13T10:26:58
2024-05-13T10:26:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bUUi9e6L4AiSXbiXfTpE
Trump VP pick by May 3?
If Donald Trump picks a VP by May 3 midnight Eastern Time, this market will resolve to YES. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
2024-04-30T19:26:59
2024-05-03T10:13:10
2024-05-03T10:13:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2j2gV2BRkjBNCx4phcDC
Will Nvidia stock end the month of May at $1000 or more?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-30T15:46:34
2024-05-31T17:26:54
2024-05-31T17:26:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pKS80aBXPYguHkAzaW4x
Will Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump) post at least 1 time on X/Twitter in 2024?
DJT has not posted since August 2023, and before that January 2021. Will he post at least once in 2024? It must be from @realdonaldtrump, not any other associated account.
2024-04-30T15:18:53
2024-08-12T09:08:42
2024-08-12T09:08:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vms15yy4ppjAADvH0wuc
Will Larry, Chief Mouser to the Cabinet Office, live to see another Prime Minister?
Will Larry, a cat who is currently 17, live to see the next Prime Minister of the UK? Currently, Larry has served under five prime minister and two monarchs. He has been in his position longer than a majority of the members of the House of Commons.
2024-04-30T13:46:17
2024-07-05T11:59:18
2024-07-05T11:59:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MrocXF6CpxuOdTPY0Ghz
Will weed / marijuana be rescheduled / legalized before election day?
US drug control agency will move to reclassify marijuana in a historic shift, AP sources say This question will resolve Yes if, before November 5th, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. Note that this resolves based on when the final rule takes effect, not when the announcement is made.
2024-04-30T10:55:23
2024-11-05T10:51:24
2024-11-05T10:51:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DhDkfrH8gRQmoZqz2LBv
Will Eminem’s upcoming album debut at #1 on Billboard 200?
Based on the Billboard 200 chart, will Eminem’s new album be #1 in the first week that it’s eligible? The Death of Slim Shady (Coup de Grâce)
2024-04-30T07:39:28
2024-07-21T18:43:42
2024-07-21T18:43:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ylcVXSNJ1JarBwrAjASH
Will Trump be sentenced to prison for violating a gag order?
[tweet]This market will resolve YES if Trump is sentenced to prison, jail, lockup, or house arrest, for violating any gag order from any court in 2024. If not, resolves NO on January 1st, 2025. Being sentenced to prison for any other reason won't resolve YES. Also, this question is only about whether Trump is sentenced to prison, not whether he actually goes, for example, if he appeals it.
2024-04-30T06:57:27
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T15:44:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iTyTYpeKuFcdV6UEbrr7
Will Tesla shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk's 2018 pay package during the 2024 annual meeting on June 13?
This resolves Yes if the shareholders vote to ratify Elon Musk's 2018 pay package during the 2024 annual meeting on June 13. Resolves No if they don't This market closes at 3pm CST on June 13 https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/tesla-asks-shareholders-reinstate-elon-musks-pay-move-texas (https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-tesla-change-its-state-of-inco)
2024-04-29T23:23:27
2024-06-13T13:00:00
2024-06-13T14:35:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jV9y3yuh9Y302BAtkr0o
Will Kilauea erupt by the end of May 2024?
Terms "Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Any eruption of Kilauea qualifies, not just eruptions into its summit caldera. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count. "By then end of" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone) and includes any time after the start of the market until the last moment of the indicated month. "Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page. Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO). Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer. Market will resolve N/A if an eruption starts in January Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes". Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption. Which volcano: with triangulation and modern earthquake monitoring equipment, it's often possible to trace magma flows to a particular underground reservoir, eliminating any ambiguity about which volcano erupted, even in cases like Kilauea, which borders or two other volcanoes. However, if USGS reports indicate any ambiguity, I won't resolve this market until the ambiguity is cleared up by USGS or 48 hours has passed after the end of the market (whichever comes first). If the ambiguity persists after that and the latest publication by USGS indicate Kilauea is even a remotely possible source, I'll resolve this market as "Yes". Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No". Disclosure: I may bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.
2024-04-29T22:54:49
2024-06-01T02:59:00
2024-06-01T06:11:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-x9NA4D4NNHet6zcqLIfD
Will Google/Samsung/Apple/MS announce a non-phone AI device, like the R1 Rabbit or Humane AI Pin, before September?
It must be a new portable gadget with an AI assistant capable of answering user questions as a central feature, much like the Rabbit R1 or Humane AI Pin. This can't be a smartphone but it could be a smartwatch, a revival of the iPod brand, etc. Coverage of the announcement must draw comparisons between the announced device and other previous AI devices like the R1 and Pin, making it clear that they are competing for the same niche. If this happens before September 1st 2024, this question resolves YES. If not, this question resolves NO.
2024-04-29T20:35:51
2024-09-01T18:47:00
2024-09-07T08:09:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MuB1V11BDoixilYmfPWx
Will evidence come out to show "gpt2-chatbot" was created and/or posted by OpenAI before the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if Open AI makes a statement Any Open AI employee confirms it A credible leak that is corroborated by at least one independent source [image]
2024-04-29T19:40:18
2024-05-13T10:48:08
2024-05-13T10:48:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-296ybaLp6xskH4pApIaQ
Will RFK Junior reach 5 percent of the national Popular Vote? Current 538 polling average is 10.1 percent.
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-29T18:24:48
2024-11-05T19:40:00
2024-11-12T10:52:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5NIRh4RcEgq5XOHuZ0Il
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of July 2024?
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7 [image]
2024-04-29T09:51:58
2024-07-31T20:59:00
2024-08-01T08:38:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xxtKC8ZiLHAv0ArF18BN
Will Extropic's Guillaume Verdon aka BasedBeffJezos step down or otherwise be removed from his position by May 31?
@basedbeffjezos posted an "interesting first look" ~8 minute long video on x, highlighting the company's fancy sounding tech. https://twitter.com/BasedBeffJezos/status/1784296645074559125 Additionally, a 40+ minute long video was posted interviewing him. The above is context for this question; if Verdon makes a statement indicating that he has left Extropic, or if it is generally known that he has been removed from his position, or other widely accepted claims of this nature, by the last minute of May 31st, then this poll will resolve to YES. If Verdon indicates either in a public statement (e,g on x) that he plans to step down before May 31st, and does not recant said statement by the end of May 31st, this will resolve to YES. Otherwise, this resolves to NO.
2024-04-28T17:37:06
2024-05-31T23:59:00
2024-06-01T07:13:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Cj0CPk63Wfwst1y1noo2
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of May 2024?
@/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-3572841109f7 [image]
2024-04-28T17:09:36
2024-05-31T17:26:09
2024-05-31T17:26:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PuRCWFIi6gxMijOuRHPo
Will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu by the end of 2024?
Resoles YES if the ICC issues the warrant and it is considered active before the end of 2024. @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-777d9a6875ce @/strutheo/will-the-international-criminal-cou-2197ccca6c2d [image]
2024-04-28T17:08:29
2024-11-21T07:47:42
2024-11-21T07:47:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dHVVLZWzKpzIcjC6rRzw
Will a second regional US bank fail in 2024?
Republic First Bank failed on 26th April 2024, will one (or more) other US banks fail in 2024? Resolves YES if one more entry dated 2024 appears here: https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
2024-04-28T14:18:18
2024-10-22T15:15:10
2024-10-22T15:15:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WHqtjM0MgQkrrFVhlFPd
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $72,500 in May 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-28T12:16:20
2024-05-31T20:59:00
2024-06-01T10:35:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-b1ZohoLLL41epi7QI3Ct
[Metaculus] Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22576/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E as under any of the following categories: Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours Assessed Russian Control Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the location The question will resolve as No if the location is not assessed to be in any of the categories indicating Russian control, which includes but is not limited to: Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location or a lack of Russian control of the location Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2024-04-28T07:55:27
2024-06-02T06:00:00
2024-06-03T05:07:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Bu5lPJgcgXbPKKnXhH3s
Will bitcoin be above $66,666 at the end of June 2024?
Resolves based on Google BTC price at EOD ET.
2024-04-28T07:02:01
2024-06-30T20:59:00
2024-06-30T21:29:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-V9JXUt5DUKKfdSCrCaJ1
Will Giving What We Can reach 10,000 active 10% pledges in 2024?
Resolves based on the number under "Lifetime members" at https://www.givingwhatwecan.org/about-us/members, which is 8,850 as of market creation on 28th April 2024. Fake pledges or other attempts at manipulation won't be counted, according to the best of my judgment.
2024-04-28T02:02:24
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2024-12-31T16:13:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r2r7qPssWqNz64MBTv2W
If Trump and Biden have a debate, will RFK Jr. participate?
If Trump and Biden participate in a nationally televised debate in which RFK Jr. is also a participant, this market will resolve YES. If Trump and Biden have debate(s), but RFK Jr. is not present at atleast one, this market will resolve NO. If Trump and Biden don't have a debate before the election, this market resolves N/A and all traders get their mana back.
2024-04-27T11:40:31
2024-06-28T08:11:32
2024-06-28T08:11:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Og5VAg85K0LyL6NOd1Mq
Will Russia open new front in 2024?
By opening new front I mean ground troops assault or naval invasion in the south with the goal of long-term occupation through the blue line. It's decided by general consensus in the media and sites like live map ua. [image]
2024-04-27T10:06:14
2025-01-01T02:02:15
2025-01-01T02:02:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mX9OFKPKnKS0Aw2Eu2zQ
Will Ethereum ETF be approved before the January 1st, 2025?
It's up to Gary or the SEC.
2024-04-27T00:46:55
2024-11-14T22:58:58
2024-11-14T22:58:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0wCwiZRzWUYJp0HesIgq
Will Democrats keep the presidency AND have a net gain in Congress?
Resolves YES if Democrats keep the presidency AND percentage_of_senate_are_Democrats + percentage_of_house_are_Democrats is higher after the 2024 elections than before. Independents who caucus with the Democrats will be considered Democrats. Resolves NO if Democrats lose the presidency. Resolves NO if percentage_of_senate_are_Democrats + percentage_of_house_are_Democrats is the same or lower after the 2024 election as before.
2024-04-26T23:56:47
2024-11-05T22:06:37
2024-11-06T00:00:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aGkuWqGUL0sQFaR03sps
Will Elon Musk be googled more than Kanye West on any day in May, in the US?
Resolution will be based on this Google Trends page, which compares the Search Topic Elon Musk to the Search Topic Kanye West in the United States in the past 90 days. [image]Kanye is currently ahead of Elon. This market resolves YES If Elon is shown to be ahead of Kanye during any day in May using these same parameters, or otherwise resolves NO. A tie does not count, nor does being ahead on a day before the data for that day is finalized.
2024-04-26T17:38:37
2024-06-01T10:11:00
2024-06-11T12:36:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BDgJw5t2gfP7zyHWfahs
Will Trump be locked up before his lockup expires?
In the "truth social" (DJT) IPO, Trump has shares that are locked up. He cannot trade them until this lockup expires. In criminal trials, he is facing felony charges. Will he be in jail before his lockup expires?
2024-04-26T15:19:17
2024-09-19T19:15:35
2024-09-19T19:16:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GK1ORbRgfDqc2TwZ6ft5
Will Tadej Pojacar pull off the Giro-Tour double?
Last person was Marco Pantani in 1998.
2024-04-26T14:14:20
2024-07-21T12:20:48
2024-07-21T12:20:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hsV4zj8hrJKTjpdYMq8f
Will the dictatorship in Venezuela lose power before 2025?
July 2024 presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. Faced with the political disqualification of Maria Corina Machado, the main leader of the opposition, the opposition coalition managed to register a presidential candidate who, in principle, will face Nicolas Maduro in the elections.
2024-04-26T12:41:49
2024-12-31T18:59:00
2025-01-07T11:57:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3qFp8bbtve04qjqihprl
Will Israel claim that Oct 7 hostages are being held in West Bank in 2024?
Resolves "Yes" if at any point in 2024, a member of the Israeli government claims that some of the hostages taken by Hamas on October 7, 2023 are now being held in the West Bank
2024-04-26T12:08:53
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-06T19:52:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RgynSm9cjrv02Z4oY20p
Will Apple announce VisionOS 2 at WWDC 2024?
Apple typically announces the next generation of their operating systems every year at WWDC, will they do they same for VisionOS this year? For a positive resolution Apple must announce a significant software update to VisionOS at the WWDC 2024 main keynote that brings version 2.0. A new naming scheme similar to that for macOS would also suffice.
2024-04-26T11:31:19
2024-06-10T12:50:25
2024-06-10T12:50:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5zvgt3daUkeiB3p1hfuQ
GPT 5/4.5 announced in May
Must be an official announcement not just hints can be either GPT 5 or 4.5
2024-04-26T09:34:25
2024-05-31T20:59:00
2024-08-20T22:14:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4Blc8yNkAVapn8ou7ifN
Will a UK General Election be announced between Sunday 28th April and Sunday 5th May 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-26T08:39:13
2024-05-06T01:50:35
2024-05-06T01:50:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8dlYRTFcSlCItFszRDaJ
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of May 10th 2024?
Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos
2024-04-26T07:46:13
2024-04-29T17:59:30
2024-04-29T17:59:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CsBU8et9ydQjZFyyGg56
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 24?
Resolves YES if Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal on both sides. Market ends at the end of day for Israel, using Israel time zone.
2024-04-25T21:27:21
2024-05-24T14:29:27
2024-05-24T14:29:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HhCYHgrxOSJSwxxj4uhl
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May?
Going by Israel time zone
2024-04-25T21:14:24
2024-05-31T14:59:00
2024-05-31T17:42:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IBqF04yoH2jrn5RIJHOb
[Metaculus] Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?
Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22633/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced his resignation. Otherwise, it will resolve as No. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2024-04-25T18:17:18
2024-04-30T11:57:35
2024-04-30T11:57:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TpTpJK5APR0P8NMuVrC1
Will an America die of H5N1 in 2024?
In 2024, according to Wikipedia, 2 American have ever already contracted H5N1 (avian bird flu), in 2022 and 2024; neither has died (of the disease). Will an American die of H5N1 this year? See sibling: (https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-another-america-die-of-h5n1-in)
2024-04-25T18:15:53
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T16:10:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tHHRVeUUeJfaInK9RHZ6
Will Luffy use gear 4 again before he leaves egghead island?
Vote YES if you think Luffy will use gear 4 before he’s on a ship that has departed from egghead. (After he used it against the seraphim). Vote NO if you think Luffy will not use gear 4 before he’s on a ship that has departed from egghead.
2024-04-25T15:07:25
2024-07-24T20:59:00
2024-09-10T08:56:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9fZT2bGy9LuBiozaj6Af
Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of April 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-25T14:47:15
2024-04-30T16:34:29
2024-04-30T16:34:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-p4zVg8owHHpOvYhDV4vo
Will Biden be ahead of Trump on 538's national poll at the end of Trump's Birthday? (June 14)
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
2024-04-25T13:41:35
2024-06-14T20:31:50
2024-06-14T20:31:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h33Uh9g5fryaEhLKHizU
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of June?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7 @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3e8398d5fb00
2024-04-25T07:41:25
2024-06-30T18:36:30
2024-06-30T18:36:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RQ9IxFxkxoHxU0HGnbak
Will Biden lead Trump in 538's national poll at the end of May?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/ @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3f74609d4b03 @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-fd2e84e1158d @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-93a66f5dbdb7 @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3e8398d5fb00 @/strutheo/will-biden-lead-trump-in-538s-natio-3fac85a96dcd
2024-04-25T07:40:53
2024-05-31T17:24:16
2024-05-31T17:24:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wZEfWjJiKCFgF2xBf73x
Will Jackie & Shadow's eggs hatch? 🥚|🦅 Big Bear Valley Bald Eagles
[image]Jackie is a female bald eagle with a nest located about 145 feet up in a Jeffrey Pine tree in Big Bear Valley in the San Bernardino Mountains. Her current partner is Shadow. WATCH LIVE NEST CAM: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4-L2nfGcuE Resolves YES if one or more of her eggs hatch as reported by a credible source in 2025. The egg can be laid at anytime. Resolves NO if no eggs are laid, eggs are laid but zero of them hatch, she is declared deceased by a credible source, a credible source declares all eggs non-viable (FOBBV preferred as main source), or there is no credible confirmation / reporting of any such activity. If an egg is laid before the market closes, the date of the appearance of the last egg in that clutch will trigger the countdown to close (3 months or end of 2025, whichever comes first). Market will close at the conclusion of that time period or sooner upon confirmation of conditions being met for a YES or NO resolution.
2024-04-25T06:19:56
2025-03-04T09:30:42
2025-03-04T09:30:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yfjDbFTVY3RN7qJbVSvE
Will student Gaza protests directly result in at least one student death caused by police by August 1st?
In order for a death to be "caused by police" it only must have been the direct result of police actions (firing a gun, swinging a baton, etc.). It does not have to be the "first cause". American universities only. The student themselves need not be American. "Police" will be interpreted liberally, does not need to be local police, can be state troopers, National Guard, and other similar groups.
2024-04-25T00:21:49
2024-07-31T23:11:08
2024-07-31T23:11:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QMUtdhSZtkN3Bd76BoSw
Will Kharkiv fall to Russian forces in 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-24T17:09:40
2024-12-31T02:59:00
2024-12-31T11:37:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Eze4lgqdIq7MGiHUslIS
Will Kanye West release a porn video to consumers before the end of 2024?
https://twitter.com/kanyewest/status/1783277581946769768 can be free or paid [image]
2024-04-24T16:46:51
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T15:55:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-v8KDOyKabhxTuIQ0dSKJ
Will Kendrick drop a diss track for Drake before April 30?
Who you got? Aubrey or Kungfu Kenny? Will the dot show up or fold. https://drizzyvsdot.com/
2024-04-24T13:36:20
2024-04-30T09:10:04
2024-04-30T09:10:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y8tAyIVtTxnVg1BoonVy
Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-24T09:57:12
2024-05-25T09:00:59
2024-05-25T09:00:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2UaQmxGarSdFdcvhVzHS
Will Manchester United win the 2023-2024 FA Cup Final?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-24T09:56:43
2024-05-25T09:00:49
2024-05-25T09:00:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ayItxgs6ZhO0rkUURAeu
Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of Halloween?
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/ Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
2024-04-24T08:34:48
2024-10-31T19:49:07
2024-10-31T19:49:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Z1GN0uwK9PbFMqGoZEs5
Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024?
This market is trying to track real price change. If there is split or reverse split, the price will be treated as no split or reverse split happen. Edited: On June 10th, this market will adjust to $200 to make comparison logic before split and after split match as mentioned above “no split happen”
2024-04-24T04:41:01
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T16:29:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q99fWp0NUMxpPhIyoC6e
Will Nvidia hit $950 again by May 15th 11:59PM
The predict will be RESOLVED today by 11:59PM EST as YES if the price >=$950 sometime, NO if the price always < $950 according to the data publish from NASDAQ
2024-04-24T04:22:16
2024-05-15T14:22:22
2024-05-15T14:22:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hGyKJkX1j2PHHwoycuvS
Will Zendaya get an Oscar nomination for her role in Challengers?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-23T20:47:15
2025-01-23T11:08:34
2025-01-23T11:08:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sfGPvlWYSyoenDd2k6DA
Will the FBI open an investigation into Columbia University related to anti-semitism on campus in 2024?
If before Dec 31st 2024 at 11:59pm will the FBI open an investigation into any students, faculty or individuals who participated in any protests or events that involve some sort of anti-semetic messaging as reported by major new media companies.
2024-04-23T15:36:42
2024-12-31T21:38:31
2024-12-31T21:38:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AczRbv2gih0lwY0HkaTi
Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?
https://twitter.com/GaryMarcus/status/1782844845788451253 https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard
2024-04-23T13:25:35
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-06T06:52:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yTcXT7gVssLGIBbB7lNt
Will Macron swim in the Seine river before September 1st, 2024?
French President Macron has promised to swim in the Paris river... Will he actually do it? https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/03/01/macron-promises-to-swim-in-seine-to-show-off-olympic-cleanup_6574911_7.html
2024-04-23T05:00:40
2024-09-01T20:59:00
2024-09-02T02:44:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tDiuBd2GoRhccHsvERBl
Will Trump nominate a woman for his VP pick?
Will Donald Trump name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election? YES: his selection is a person who identifies as "woman" NO: his selection is a person or entity that does not identify as "woman"
2024-04-22T18:48:05
2024-07-15T13:09:59
2024-07-15T13:09:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lOdmOUvSdmwmbpo82Sxb
Will Bitcoin increase in May 2024?
If CoinGecko's historical data states that the closing price of Bitcoin on May 31st, 2024 is higher than the closing price on April 30th, 2024 ($60,749) then this question will resolve 'YES'. Otherwise, it will resolve 'NO'. https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data
2024-04-22T18:10:48
2024-05-31T20:59:00
2024-06-01T14:43:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IFt1AHT7kfegzXmCokdB
Will Ramzan Kadyrov remain the head of the Chechen Republic (Chechnya) by the end of 2024?
The market is inspired by the latest news reports about possible Ramzan disease. I will not bet on this market. Resolution criteria: 1. Positive Resolution (YES): The market should resolve as "YES" if Ramzan Kadyrov is officially holding the position of the head of the Chechen Republic at 23:59 local time on December 31, 2024, as confirmed by official statements from the Russian government or credible news sources recognized by the market creator. 2. Negative Resolution (NO): The market should resolve as "NO" if Ramzan Kadyrov is not holding the position of the head of the Chechen Republic at any point prior to 23:59 local time on December 31, 2024. This includes scenarios where he may have resigned, been removed from office, or any other circumstance that results in him not being in office at the specified time. Confirmation must come from official government announcements or credible news sources recognized by the market creator.
2024-04-22T13:32:54
2024-12-30T12:59:00
2025-01-01T05:03:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-grpFeFtlD2UhWy0RLwEc
Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of National Girlfriend Day? (August 1st)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-22T11:59:48
2024-08-01T20:59:00
2024-08-01T21:54:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-81UbATjlA18oyhMQr3as
Will Chat GPT 5 release before the end of July 4th?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-04-22T11:47:15
2024-07-04T19:19:51
2024-07-04T19:19:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KsOtGPzFqvW9y0bPmYTS
Will Perez get more Points then Leclerc in the 2024 Formula 1 Season?
If Perez gets more Points in the 2024 Formula 1 Season this market resolves to yes. If both drivers have the same amount of Points at the end of this Season this market resolves N/A.
2024-04-22T06:40:33
2024-11-24T04:24:04
2024-11-24T04:24:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9asH4CWdzFFphQTHV4KX
Will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate for US President before announcing her next album?
Will Taylor Swift endorse a singular Presidential candidate in the 2024 election before announcing her next album? For endorsements, she must name a singular candidate who is running in the 2024 election. She can say “I’m voting for Trump” or “You should vote for Biden” or “RFK Jr. is the best candidate running for President this year”. Anything demonstrating a clear preference for a singular candidate. For albums, “Taylor’s Version” [TV] does count, as do new albums. Announcements of other non-album product (think makeup, cook wear…etc.) will not count. More deluxe albums of TTPD will also not count. This needs to be a newly recorded album (even if it was previously recorded before, like TVs). If she doesn’t endorse anyone in 2024, this market becomes a “Will Taylor ever announce another album?” market, and will extend as needed. See @Ziddletwix‘s similar vibed market here: (https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-taylor-swift-endorse-joe-biden-978b1a49b944)
2024-04-22T05:10:50
2024-09-10T20:26:49
2024-09-10T20:26:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UGuNEUtNpZdFEO0wEt5R
Will Shadow have a Gun in the third Sonic the Hedgehog movie?
He is known for having a gun in his titular video game. Resolves YES if he has posession of a gun during the movie will resolve 50 if there is debated uncertainty by my judgement [image][image]
2024-04-21T19:36:01
2024-12-20T08:40:34
2024-12-20T08:40:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-uzqNqxpr1Mcv2pn0j829
Will any candidate receive more than 45% of the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election?
Resolution deadline will be extended in the case that the answer is not yet clear.
2024-04-21T14:13:10
2024-11-09T20:30:34
2024-11-09T20:30:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9hzf5ATg4WSIOSU6Josh
Will the Drug Enforcement Administration announce before election day that it is going to reschedule marijuana?
This market resolves YES if the Drug Enforcement Administration announces before November 5th that it intends to remove Marijuana from its current Schedule I Drug status. This would likely be in the form of a Notice of Proposed Rule-making, after which there would be some weeks or months for the public to comment on the proposed rule. This market resolves based on when the initial DEA announcement is made, regardless of what happens after that or how long it takes. If there is no such announcement before November 5th, this market resolves NO.
2024-04-21T13:40:19
2024-05-16T12:26:01
2024-05-16T12:26:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-A7iUNT3WqJAGnoelFq9n
[Metaculus] Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?
Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20773/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if third-party credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge: has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2025 via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source. For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" the bridge itself Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2024-04-21T11:17:12
2025-01-02T14:00:00
2025-01-03T03:59:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GzX4LutrLZrK3f1azbaE
Will Trump be found guilty of a crime by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2026, the 10th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet?
[image]@/strutheo/will-donald-trump-be-found-guilty-o-1e118dc1d96d
2024-04-21T06:59:56
2024-05-30T14:20:52
2024-05-30T14:20:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-O3nx4pgyk3r0wdej0OPm
Will Trump be found guilty of a crime by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2025, the 9th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet?
[image]@/strutheo/will-trump-be-found-guilty-of-a-cri-c4ca829394bc
2024-04-21T06:46:59
2024-05-30T14:22:23
2024-05-30T14:22:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VeGo19qQcMC4fqBg4rRR
Will there be another use of police to break up a Gaza protest on a US college campus by June?
Context: NYPD breaks up pro-Palestinian protest at Columbia University Will police be used to break up another collegiate Gaza war protest before June? The police must be associated with a metro, state, or national law enforcement agency (including NYPD, LAPD, California Highway Patrol, Border Patrol, ICE, CIA, FBI, DIA…etc.) not simply college police. The protests could be pro, or anti, war, but should be related to the current conflict in Gaza, and/or the US’ position on Israel.
2024-04-21T04:03:52
2024-04-25T16:24:02
2024-04-25T16:24:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8N5fdSmv5haPupI8DKg3
Will GPT-5 not be announced in the month of April?
OpenAI has recently made some hints that there may be an April release, however, if GPT-5 truly is the behemoth it is proclaimed to be, then these hints would be a bit underwhelming for the announcement that is yet to come. AshutoshShrivastava on X: "Is OpenAI hinting at the release of GPT-5, or could something else be released on the 22nd? https://t.co/F2No2j1YeL" / X (twitter.com) moonbi⏭️ on X: "All of them from Openai… What are they cookin for us this year? https://t.co/Z8H7UXDC5U" / X (twitter.com) Clarification: If you believe that GPT-5 will not be announced in April, the answer would be "yes" (confirming that it will not be announced in April). If you believe that GPT-5 will be announced in April, the answer would be "no" (disagreeing that it will be announced in April).
2024-04-21T02:57:49
2024-05-02T08:13:03
2024-05-03T05:22:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SNJuELw948wRKM6c4ssR
Will Humane AI come out with a second product by 2026?
Will Humane AI come out with a second hardware product, including either a new product line or another generation of the AI Pin?
2024-04-20T18:53:22
2025-02-23T10:51:31
2025-02-23T10:51:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bTrUM3QNuqKkzBUh8xWa
Will Nvidia stock end the year at $750 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1 @/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1-1eb2bac9cef5 @/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1-a448020dc4da
2024-04-20T17:21:43
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T13:55:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-U3K6qpp4tvhO6ZeQY0VJ
Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Penciling In 0.75% Total Rate Cut During 2024?
Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Penciling In 0.75% Total Rate Cut During 2024? Resolution: Resolves YES If They Cut 0.75% In Total Resolves NO If They Cut Less than 0.75% In Total Resolves NO If They Cut More than 0.75% In Total CONTEXT: Fed holds rates steady but indicates three cuts coming sometime this year [image]CLARIFICATIONS/NOTES This market extends after every meeting. JANUARY 2024 : RATES HELD MARCH 2024 : RATES HELD APRIL/MAY 2024 : RATES HELD JUNE 2024 : RATES HELD JULY 2024 : RATES HELD SEPTEMBER 2024 : 1st Cut - 50 basis-point rate cut NOVEMBER 2024 : 2nd Cut - 25 basis-point rate cut DECEMBER 2024 : TBD [image]DISCLAIMER I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST. If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description. SIMILAR MARKET (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-fmoc-stay-with-their-march)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-during-which-official-federal-rese)
2024-04-20T15:15:19
2024-12-18T11:00:00
2024-12-18T11:40:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7pz37pLT8cfVSdiuwmMO
Will King Charles still be alive by JULY 31ST
King Charles who is 75 is king of England currently has been reported of having cancer
2024-04-20T15:03:10
2024-07-31T15:59:00
2024-08-01T08:32:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-23YBMVSpyRqG48RLkQVs
Will Ding Liren defend his World Chess Championship title?
EDIT: Defend as in to show up to the match. He doesn't necessarily need to win.
2024-04-20T14:24:12
2024-11-20T17:48:53
2024-11-20T17:48:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vplOienanSuodHgI6DYU
Will Elon Musk fall to 4th richest person anytime by August 1st 2024 according to Forbes Real time billionaires?
Tesla Stock is undergoing big pressure going down. Meta AI/Cloud service has been going many years, possibly they will announce some kind of AI market, AI driven gaming, or AI center hardware that is backed by its Meta cloud in the future. To me, it's very likely Elon Musk will fall to 4th place some day. But Elon Musk has a good history defying reality. https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#645f55c03d78
2024-04-20T09:59:15
2024-08-04T04:41:49
2024-08-04T04:41:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HBHTu3VGsPtIZOP4i5Vt
Will another person self-immolate in the United States for a political purpose by the end of 2024?
There have been two individuals this year who have self immolated for political reasons in the United States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-immolation_of_Aaron_Bushnell https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68863157.amp
2024-04-20T08:09:48
2024-09-14T19:55:46
2024-09-14T19:55:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EhHu7zfhjYE4OouWtXnI
[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?
Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22415/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the trial concerning the so-called "hush money" payments to Stormy Daniels. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2024-04-20T07:13:33
2024-05-22T11:56:16
2024-05-22T11:56:16
no
MANIFOLD