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mani-7R42gWjtX4lJw7jycRLC
|
Will Bitcoin reach $100k before this market reaches 1,000 traders?
|
Inspired by @AmmonLam
Will the price of Bitcoin reach 100k before this market has 1,000 traders? This is traders who have ever traded in the market, not currently holding positions in the market.
Live BTC price. Market will extend as needed.
You can also bet on my 500th market, which is the 5k vs. 500k version of this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/mattybs-500th-market-spectacular-wi)
|
2024-04-20T07:08:26
|
2024-12-06T14:49:04
|
2024-12-06T14:49:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-geiwsE1onCn4LAnpkXxE
|
Will Joshua Kimmich play as a midfielder at UEFA Euro 2024?
|
Joshua Kimmich is a strong German soccer player. However, his qualities as a midfielder are often disputed. It is widely known that he wants to play as a midfielder. Recently in Bayern Munich and German National team games, Kimmich had to play as a defender. So will he play as a midfielder for the German National team at the UEFA Euro 2024 or will he stay a defender throughout?
Resolves YES, if Kimmich plays as a midfielder in one of Germany’s games at Euro 2024. This will be judged on basis of the game footage. He does not have to start as a midfielder.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will not bet in this market.
|
2024-04-20T00:28:26
|
2024-07-07T03:13:05
|
2024-07-07T03:13:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zS0X6v27zPU3tImotxUh
|
Will BTC reach $100,000 by midnight eastern June 6, 2024 ?
|
Google price report used as settlement data. The price returned by googling "btcusd" will be used as official record for reslolution.
|
2024-04-20T00:20:22
|
2024-06-06T21:59:00
|
2024-06-07T13:04:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sq5YZOAGlWBZI4Vh0zt1
|
Will Dommaraju Gukesh ever become World Chess Champion?
|
Dommaraju Gukesh is a young chess prodigy right now. Will he ever become world champion?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_D
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship
This market will resolve YES when/if Dommaraju Gukesh becomes world chess champion.
This market will resolve NO when/if I determine that Dommaraju Gukesh has become irrelevant to the world chess championship. Examples of this would be that Gukesh has retired or he has stopped competing in the candidates tournament. If he doesn't qualify for the candidates any year but he is still attempting to qualify for future candidates tournaments, this market will not resolve at that point.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament#
Since the candidates tournament reformatted to an 8 player double round-robin tournament in 2013, the oldest player to have competed in that tournament has been 46 years old (Viswanathan Anand 2016). I expect that Gukesh will likely become irrelevant by the time he reaches 50 years of age. Due to this, I will put the expiration date at his 50th birthday. However, if he is still actively and successfully making his way to the candidates tournament at that point, I may push the expiration out further. That is to be determined by future me.
I will allow myself to bet on this market, but I currently don't know which way I would bet. I will probably give the market some time to fluctuate before making a decision.
|
2024-04-19T22:47:05
|
2024-12-12T05:18:49
|
2024-12-12T05:18:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hWGQ5yeKKlAjdIjD0ZNb
|
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States before Bitcoin reaches $80K USD?
|
Resolves NO if Assange passes away before being extradited to the USA
Market open until one happens
|
2024-04-19T21:31:35
|
2024-11-10T17:09:13
|
2024-11-10T17:09:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BY8jsKSM6mm9zrQeCcpp
|
[Metaculus] Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 globally before 2025?
|
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22304/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-19T11:25:42
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:59:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yrJOiTFfYfi4X1gV6cZ3
|
[short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,100.00 before 4,900.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 4,900.00 or 5,100.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-19).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,900.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,100.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
|
2024-04-19T07:38:48
|
2024-04-26T07:29:25
|
2024-04-26T07:29:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IAHgx4LFLUDi0qGkD7DP
|
Will there by any further direct attacks between Iran and Israel in April or May 2024?
|
Direct attacks involve airstrikes or missile launches from Iranian or Israeli territory and directed at Iranian or Israeli territory.
It could also include ground forces or naval forces that are flagged for each country (this is very unlikely).
This does not include attacks from Iranian proxy groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, etc). Likewise, this does not include US, UK, or any other allied forces striking Iran.
|
2024-04-19T03:12:39
|
2024-05-31T18:01:29
|
2024-05-31T18:01:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5BPZySLgc1ZrRkiBCFZp
|
Will Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) close higher than $170 on the end of April (April 30th)
|
Resolves at 4pm ET according to Nasdaq Close Price
YES if stock closes higher than $170 on April 30th
NO if stock closes lower or 170$
|
2024-04-19T02:25:39
|
2024-04-30T14:59:00
|
2024-04-30T15:05:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fdqyMZ57jsfEfARt1mxs
|
Will OpenAI / Dall-E support real-time AI image generation in 2024?
|
Meta's latest text-to-image model supports real-time image generation while writing the prompt. Will OpenAI support this feature in 2024?
[tweet]
|
2024-04-19T02:06:38
|
2024-12-31T11:02:12
|
2024-12-31T11:02:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LMqnPWOJ9UsLreSjNZu2
|
Will there be at least 1000 Israeli civilian deaths in war this year?
|
Currently there have been almost none, but things are escalating fast with Iran.
|
2024-04-18T21:50:34
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:33:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IWMNWj2x0f4CoTHXWMpI
|
💲🥛 Will The Average Price Of Fresh Whole Milk (Gal.) Be Below $3.87 At The End Of June 2024?
|
💲🥛 Will The Average Price Of Fresh Whole Milk (Gal.) Be Below $3.87 At The End Of June 2024?
Resolution Criteria
Will Resolve Yes If The Official Data Shows The Cost Was Less Than $3.87
Will Resolve No If The Official Data Shows The Cost Was $3.87 Or Higher.
Data Source
FRED Economic Data | St. Louis Fed (Source: International Monetary Fund)
Data Is Published Around The 11th Of Every Month For The Prior Month
2023 Chart:
[image]Federal Reserve Economic Data Dashboard
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2024-04-18T20:59:30
|
2024-07-11T08:08:05
|
2024-07-11T08:08:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cDwSg3yujUcaOeRFFhrU
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within one week of being attacked by them?
|
@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad
@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi
Using similar criteria as Metaculus
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:
Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
|
2024-04-18T18:48:57
|
2024-04-25T19:56:48
|
2024-04-25T19:56:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M5kPbpOc7P6lARfawFMS
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 72 hours of being attacked by them?
|
@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73
@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi
Using similar criteria as Metaculus
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:
Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
|
2024-04-18T18:48:41
|
2024-04-21T18:59:05
|
2024-04-21T18:59:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q5g9CTDHJXYUa7ds04sj
|
Will Iran attack Israel AGAIN within 30 days of being attacked by them?
|
@/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-97077e4e70ad @/strutheo/will-iran-attack-israel-again-withi-906f3c939b73
Using similar criteria as Metaculus
Resolution Criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before close, credible reports indicate an attack attributed to Iran occurring within Israel's borders. The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve Yes:
Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the Institute for the Study of War's map covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.
The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
|
2024-04-18T18:48:02
|
2024-05-18T20:59:00
|
2024-05-18T21:06:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nTwwJ5Q81yiQKiIs647g
|
Will this Francis Bacon painting sell for >$50 million at its upcoming Sotheby's auction? (pic included)
|
The Sotheby's auction house is about to auction off an extremely famous painting by Francis Bacon. Link:
Francis Bacon - Portrait of George Dyer Crouching
The pre-auction estimate is a whopping 30,000,000 - 50,000,000 USD. This market resolves YES if the final sale price listed on the Sotheby's website is >$50 million USD.
Resolution details:
Example from a past auction: This painting by Vigée Le Brun sold for 3,085,000 USD. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Note that the final listed sale price typically includes the buyer's premium (beyond the bid you hear during the auction.
If the lot is withdrawn before the auction, or it fails to sell, this market resolves NO. It only resolves YES if it successfully sells with a listed price >$50 million.
Painting details
[image]Passionate yet tumultuous, Francis Bacon’s romance with his muse and lover George Dyer was a profound influence throughout the artist’s life and work, with his portraits of Dyer standing among the most powerful of his works. This May, Sotheby’s will offer Francis Bacon’s 1966 Portrait of George Dyer Crouching - the first from a critical cycle of 10 monumental portraits of Dyer created between 1966 and 1968, marking the inauguration of a momentous corpus of beautiful yet agonizing masterworks dedicated to his most significant muse...
A striking masterwork from the apex of the artist’s practice, Portrait of George Dyer Crouching provides a haunting glimpse of George Dyer through the eyes of his lover, simultaneously as a hero and as a figure of vulnerability. (link)
For more auctions, check out the dashboard.
|
2024-04-18T18:20:20
|
2024-05-13T20:42:27
|
2024-05-13T20:42:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cL1yLqjTYr4ueYGWFpJK
|
Will the US veto another UN Palestinian statehood resolution in the next 30 days?
|
Context: U.S. Vetoes Palestinian Bid for Recognition as Full U.N. Member State
Of course the U.S will veto another Palestinian statehood bill at some point. Will it happen in the next 30 days?
Resolves NO if the US does not veto a UN Resolution pertaining to Palestinian statehood by market close.
Related UK market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-the-uk-vote-in-favor-of-a-un-p)
|
2024-04-18T17:00:57
|
2024-05-18T21:59:00
|
2024-06-03T09:17:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6npe7oBAYhJLzx1lKTSx
|
Will any of the Trump Hush Money trial jurors have their identities leaked during the trial?
|
The judge ordered that the jurors’ identities be kept confidential during the trial and that reporters withhold some information that could identify them.
Per the NYT
Before the trial has ended, and the jury has delivered a verdict, will any of the juror’s identity be leaked? Even if the juror is dismissed from the doxxing, this will Resolve YES.
Will Resolve NO if all of the jurors are still pseudonymous at the end of the trial.
If a juror is dismissed before their identity is leaked, that will not count. They must be a juror at time of their doxxing.
|
2024-04-18T16:52:16
|
2024-05-30T17:26:35
|
2024-05-30T17:26:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u9hLTRKblw6XvEzRANf4
|
[short-fuse 💣] Will any of the 12 Trump Hush Money trial jurors drop out before opening statements?
|
Today (Thursday April 18th), Day 3 in the Trump pornstar hush money trial (recap by the NYT)
After two jurors were dismissed on Thursday morning, a flurry of afternoon activity produced a full panel of 12 jurors who will decide the former president’s fate. Several alternates remain to be seated on Friday, with opening statements expected on Monday.
Will another juror be dismissed (for whatever reason, including self-elected) before opening statements begin (potentially as soon as Monday)? Do we not have the final 12 yet?
A full description of the 12 jurors can be found here.
See a longer time-framed version of this here:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-trumps-pornstar-hush-money-tri)
|
2024-04-18T16:45:20
|
2024-04-22T08:25:45
|
2024-04-22T08:25:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o7KoyG6VuNyB0F1o3Sxm
|
Will Llama 3 400B be better than GPT-4?
|
Resolves YES if any instance Llama 3 400B tops GPT-4 turbo (currently in 1st place) in the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard within a year of its release.
|
2024-04-18T15:46:55
|
2024-08-05T16:35:44
|
2024-08-05T16:35:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yAy3jetKIrFKdrlU6ZXZ
|
Will Bitcoin reach $75K before the end of Stepmother's day? (May 19)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-18T12:43:21
|
2024-05-19T20:59:00
|
2024-05-19T21:35:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jQLrhiOEl5dYfPQG9qAw
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 16th?
|
Going by end of day Israel time
both sides must agree
|
2024-04-18T12:40:12
|
2024-05-16T14:59:00
|
2024-05-16T15:33:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zNhykVIoEDly6ev8JLRb
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the House when Trump's Vice President Running Mate is announced?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-18T10:30:30
|
2024-07-15T12:54:23
|
2024-07-15T12:54:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mCCutllFld7vv4n2nL3a
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach $100k before the end of 2025?
|
Resolves yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches $100,000 or more at anytime before 12/31/25, 11:59pm UTC.
Resolution Source will be the all time high (ATH) per Coingecko:
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
|
2024-04-18T09:43:47
|
2024-12-04T18:47:22
|
2024-12-04T18:47:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FU6vUeUSLrNvkI1Ns3fg
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) reach $100k before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches $100,000 or more at anytime before 12/31/24.
Resolution Source will be the all time high (ATH) per Coingecko:
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
|
2024-04-18T09:40:50
|
2024-12-04T18:48:14
|
2024-12-04T18:48:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BOw4MZnqXO7AhpODGxU3
|
Will RFK Jr. get more votes than Ross Perot did in 1992?
|
In the 1992 presidential election, Ross Perot got 19,743,821 votes. Will RFK Jr earn more votes in 2024 than Perot did in 1992?
See other markets for RFK’s Percent Earned:
[markets]
|
2024-04-18T09:14:32
|
2024-11-08T23:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:45:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HTn2fqoLpg2jXlHNE1Z5
|
Will August 2024 be the hottest August on record?
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month. A tie will resolve “no”.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-04-18T06:41:13
|
2024-09-12T10:24:10
|
2024-09-12T10:24:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3n3Y5mGdXxddLlFe2cs5
|
Will there be any break between One Piece chapters 1114 and 1115?
|
A break can be any amount of time, enough for Shonen Jump to state at the end of chapters if there will be a break before the next one.
“YES” = “Yes, there will be a break after chapter 1114”
“NO” = “No, there will not be a break after chapter 1114”
Plan to close this on official release, will close earlier if known-accurate leakers post any details about a break ahead of time. I do not vote in my own questions.
|
2024-04-18T05:11:23
|
2024-05-02T06:41:24
|
2024-05-02T06:41:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lZGjOuqKsvbkTAsauV3K
|
Will Bitcoin hit $66K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count - Apr 17, 2024, 8:29:13 PM
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-17T18:29:13
|
2024-04-22T08:33:06
|
2024-04-22T08:33:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LMRf1dV5mhe79YTLT16v
|
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
|
OpenAI's Superalignment team had one research output (Weak-to-Strong Generalization: Eliciting Strong Capabilities With Weak Supervision) in 2023.
Any similar preprint resolves YES.
If they have writeups which do not look like something that would fare well if submitted to a top conference, but do contain something of research value (such as Anthropic's interp team monthly updates), I reserve the right to resolve to a percentage.
Papers that are not about the initially stated Superalignment agenda do not resolve this question either way. If the Superalignment team stops existing in the form it was originally set up, this resolves NO. If the agenda is rebranded to be about issues that appear in the shorter or longer term than the initial scope, this resolves NO even if they then publish a paper on that.
|
2024-04-17T17:48:31
|
2024-05-25T07:58:10
|
2024-05-25T07:58:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HaQzCBESYuAaT364nym2
|
Will mkbhd review of Rabbit R1 be overall positive?
|
The overall positive or negative sentiment of the video will be judged based on mostly the conclusion in the end(Open to change the criteria/add to it).
Open to arguments in comments after the video comes out, if it lies somewhere in between.
relevant post:
[tweet]https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd
|
2024-04-17T17:27:47
|
2024-05-01T00:33:36
|
2024-05-01T00:33:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c4cx5pr4BSqke5Z44DRC
|
Champions League semi finals - will Bayern Munich qualify over Real Madrid?
|
There are 4 teams remaining in the 2023/4 Champions League. The next stage is the semi finals.
Each tie will be played over two legs, with the first leg being played on 30th April and 1st May and the second leg being played on 7th/8th May.
Who will qualify from the two-legged tie between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid?
If Bayern Munich qualify for the final, this market resolves to YES.
If Real Madrid qualify for the final, this market resolves to NO.
|
2024-04-17T14:48:52
|
2024-05-08T15:59:00
|
2024-05-08T16:24:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WESzHYOvcwFrbtguazOo
|
Will oil stay below 100$ until the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-17T12:18:49
|
2024-12-23T14:32:21
|
2024-12-23T14:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WN2rXnkAumLcDdO1You7
|
Will Elon announce before June that he's bringing back Vine?
|
[tweet]Any announcement before June 1st from Elon or X that they are going to use the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X app or separate from it, will resolve this market YES.
If there is no such announcement before June, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-04-17T12:07:34
|
2024-06-01T06:22:02
|
2024-06-01T06:22:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-juVeSwUu3UnvC1kNSjnW
|
Will Elon announce before 2025 that he's bringing back Vine?
|
[tweet]Any announcement before end of year from Elon or X that they are going to use the Vine branding for any kind of short-form video content, either on the X app or separate from it, will resolve this market YES.
If there is no such announcement by the end of the year, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-04-17T11:49:52
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:39:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6U1tbqPLBprfDamjD3HM
|
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi lose a game in the 2024 FIDE candidates tournament?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-17T08:35:44
|
2024-04-21T17:28:47
|
2024-04-21T17:28:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RMFM3cr2j4W4YeCg9lAC
|
Will Tesla shareholders re-approve Elon Musk's thrown out pay package?
|
In January 2024, a Delaware court threw out a Tesla pay package for Musk then worth $51 billion.
Tesla has filed a letter to stockholders with the SEC that asks them to vote to re-approve this package.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/17/business/tesla-shareholders-musk-pay-package/index.html
|
2024-04-17T08:12:11
|
2024-06-13T14:10:56
|
2024-06-13T14:10:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lCF2631mj3fkzjUi6UgZ
|
Will Klay Thompson be on the Warriors next year?
|
In game 1. Merely apart of the roster, healthy or not.
|
2024-04-16T21:14:15
|
2024-07-02T21:05:06
|
2024-07-02T21:05:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ZgRB5Y23ZjGhoAxzlig
|
Will any rider win the Giro-Tour Double in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if any rider wins the general classification in both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in 2024 (men’s races).
Sean Kelly: Tadej Pogačar’s Giro-Tour Double Prospects Have Leaped Forward
https://velo.outsideonline.com/road/road-racing/sean-kelly-tadej-pogacars-giro-tour-double-prospects-have-leaped-forward/
|
2024-04-16T16:39:46
|
2024-07-21T12:36:08
|
2024-07-21T12:36:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z9nzmBeo9VuaU6brJmLB
|
Will Real Madrid beat Bayern Munich? ⚽ May 8 (Leg 2)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-16T11:27:23
|
2024-05-08T14:02:15
|
2024-05-08T14:02:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J9NmoK9MsokbfYumhupz
|
Will Bayern Munich beat Real Madrid? ⚽ April 30 (Leg 1)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-16T11:26:10
|
2024-04-30T13:53:10
|
2024-04-30T13:53:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nbtjf9vwCIGXBgRCeMSn
|
Will Apple’s 2024 WWDC Keynote event be shot on iPhone?*
|
*In a similar manner to how their October 30th, 2023 event was shot on iPhone.
To clarify, this resolves to yes if there is a message at the end of the Keynote that says
something along the lines of “This event was shot on iPhone. All presenters, locations, and drone footage shot on iPhone 15 Pro Max,” similar to the October 30 event.
|
2024-04-16T08:18:03
|
2024-06-10T09:00:00
|
2024-06-10T11:44:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KMlKDq1qvMyALSmUp3j4
|
Will OpenAI release GTP-4.5 before GPT-5?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-16T07:25:21
|
2025-02-28T08:02:08
|
2025-02-28T08:02:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OjBeKDFtb0FLbW0ocwW1
|
Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of May?
|
Intelligence communities are split on whether Israel will carry out any form of strike against Iran. The facilities in question are likely to be non-civilian targets, and would, if executed, target Iran's nuclear weapons program and other aspects of their military.
Definitions:
Retaliatory strike - Any strike by Israel on Iranian territory (strikes on Iranian proxy groups not included).
Nuclear facilities - Any facility speculated to be doing research on nuclear weapons or nuclear technology.
1st of May in the GMT time zone.
|
2024-04-16T06:34:09
|
2024-04-19T14:48:17
|
2024-04-19T14:48:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CVZwtO15EshI3smkxSle
|
Will Israel launch a cyber-attack on Iran by end of day April 30, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-16T03:45:58
|
2024-05-01T03:32:14
|
2024-05-01T03:32:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qwbiqhxMyDMErEC6o7EM
|
Will an Israeli attack reach Tehran directly by July 1st 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-15T19:05:07
|
2024-07-01T23:59:00
|
2024-07-15T14:02:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XwUhMOnwj3xxecX9o8Xb
|
Will Manchester City beat Real Madrid during regular time on Wed, Apr 17, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ Manchester City vs Real Madrid
📅 Date: Wednesday, April 17, 2024
⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🌎 ( World)
🏟️ Venue: Etihad Stadium, Manchester
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Manchester City has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
Both teams have an equal number of goals
Real Madrid has more goals
Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution
🕐 Market Closing Time:
⚠️ Disclaimer: To maintain the sustainability of market creation, this market may be closed early if the following conditions are met: 105 minutes have passed since the start of the match, there are fewer than 20 unique bettors, and either YES or NO liquidity is below M$100.
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-04-15T18:43:48
|
2024-04-17T15:00:00
|
2024-04-17T15:08:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j0QYgjcDQRuRRV2ugAvt
|
Will Israel attack Iran within 30 days of being attacked by them?
|
Related:
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-72-h
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-one
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053
[image]
|
2024-04-15T13:58:50
|
2024-04-18T18:46:47
|
2024-04-18T18:46:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AJ1kb0A3SyuHUrRI78RP
|
Will Bitcoin hit $67K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-15T12:04:52
|
2024-04-22T20:46:49
|
2024-04-22T20:46:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZTao836cRbuiEHNXAzQl
|
Will DJT drop below 20$ by the end of April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-15T11:39:15
|
2024-05-01T12:41:31
|
2024-05-01T12:41:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GueUNEZeInwWRX7XDTmY
|
Will Trump’s VP pick be a white man?
|
Resolves when an official statement is made declaring the pick.
|
2024-04-15T11:30:41
|
2024-07-15T13:23:57
|
2024-07-15T13:23:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CakfF7EHZYyZpIu3KuYq
|
Will Iran launch a significant drone attack on a Saudi embassy or consulate before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Iran has launched an attack including at least 12 drones within a period of 48 hours on a Saudi embassy or consulate (outside of Saudi Arabia). This must occur between April 14th 2024 and December 31st 2024.
Related question for Saudi proper:
@/RemNi/will-iran-launch-a-significant-dron
|
2024-04-15T10:19:50
|
2025-03-04T13:34:03
|
2025-03-04T13:34:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8DLlVcr753erB86bEf9F
|
Will Trump’s Pornstar Hush Money Trial’s jury selection end in April?
|
Will voir dire (jury selection) conclude for Trump’s NYC criminal trial over his hush money payments to Stormy Daniels in the month of April?
See more Trump trial markets:
[markets]
|
2024-04-15T08:45:17
|
2024-04-19T13:57:41
|
2024-04-19T13:57:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UnwcWlcAWCzZvkxIGhtp
|
Will there be criminal charges in relation to the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse?
|
By EOY
|
2024-04-15T07:25:50
|
2024-12-31T09:27:59
|
2024-12-31T09:27:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f1LUVlZjRA0AvQuVnjm0
|
Will Donald Trump be inside of a courtroom on Tuesday, May 21st, 2024?
|
For any reasons whatsoever, will Donald Trump appear inside of a courtroom on Tuesday, May 21st?
See earlier market
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-donald-trump-be-inside-of-a-co)
|
2024-04-15T06:28:24
|
2024-05-21T09:56:39
|
2024-05-21T09:56:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gVn2aoLV0vqeqCN0vB8r
|
Will Ding Liren play in the next World Chess Championship match?
|
World Chess Champion Ding Liren has struggled visibly since his victory. His tournament play this year has been so subpar that he is generally expected not to be the favorite against whoever emerges as the challenger from the ongoing Candidates tournament. He has talked about mental health issues and overwhelming stress during and after the World Championship.
So far, I haven't seen the possibility that he might simply withdraw from the match discussed much, but I think it might happen. In effect, this would most likely mean that the players in the Candidates tournament are once again (like last time, when Magnus Carlsen stepped down from his title defense) unknowingly playing for two spots.
This question resolves YES if Ding makes at least one move on the board (as a player, not as guest who makes a ceremonial opening move) in the next World Championship match (whenever that takes place exactly).
|
2024-04-15T06:24:44
|
2024-11-25T06:39:06
|
2024-11-25T06:39:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0n0X17fCbnPZSLhtLDM5
|
Will Trump select Kristi Noem for VP?
|
Kristi Noem is the current governor of South Dakota.
Will Donald Trump select Kristi Noem as his running mate for the 2024 presidential election?
YES: Trump names Noem for his vice presidential pick
NO: Trump names someone else for VP
note: if Trump withdraws, dies, or is prevented from running before naming a VP, then this will also resolve NO
|
2024-04-15T04:50:26
|
2024-07-15T13:09:04
|
2024-07-15T13:09:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qJPkl0btNaNkZ2R2ZTMK
|
Will Conservative MPs move against Rishi Sunak after the local elections?
|
This market resolves YES if any of the following is true as of Thursday night one week on from the local elections:
1) Rishi Sunak has stood down as leader of the Conservative Party
2) Rishi Sunak has announced his intentions to stand down before the next election and confirmed he is acting as a caretaker PM until a new leader is chosen.
3) A vote of no confidence in Rishi Sunak has been announced by Graham Brady.
|
2024-04-15T02:40:38
|
2024-05-09T15:59:00
|
2024-05-09T21:59:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rRAuxOoVeJVmEy99KR9g
|
Will Will Shortz edit another New York Times crossword in 2024?
|
Longtime New York Times crossword editor Will Shortz recently suffered from a stroke, which has led to Joel Fagliano taking over as editor for the first time in years as Shortz recovers.
This question resolves YES if any Times daily crossword published on or before December 31, 2024 is listed as edited by Will Shortz.
|
2024-04-15T02:08:00
|
2024-12-29T16:41:10
|
2024-12-29T16:41:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QIERa8OxnT7nz1lRKFZD
|
Will a new record for the hottest temperature in Europe be set during the summer of 2024?
|
The hottest temperature to ever be recorded in Europe was 48.8C in Syracuse, Sicily, in July of 2021 (see link below). The previous record is from 1977.
If the record is broken I will resolve this question YES as soon as there are credible news reports this happened, as "official" confirmation could take years to happen (the previous record was only officially verified this year https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-verification-of-new-continental-european-temperature-record)
I will define "summer" as the period from June to August.
|
2024-04-15T00:23:21
|
2024-08-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-31T16:34:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X37OsHPlO22ZuM7PjqSz
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 15?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 15 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 15 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-14T21:22:58
|
2024-04-15T21:22:00
|
2024-04-16T21:53:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1n1yFBEOk5JmsB3MC9Gw
|
Will Israel attack at least one of Iran's nuclear facilities by year-end 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-14T18:10:15
|
2024-11-20T04:29:46
|
2024-11-20T04:29:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FLEmirOfw1jW61cXFZbS
|
Will Ding Liren win the 2024 World Chess Championship?
|
This market refers to this event: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024. Resolves YES if Ding Liren wins the event and NO otherwise. If he does not participate, the market resolves NO. If the tournament is delayed past 2024 or if it is canceled, resolves 50%.
|
2024-04-14T16:55:38
|
2024-12-12T07:31:51
|
2024-12-12T07:31:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RQhbpTeCtvEFeYQxuxmu
|
Will Hasan Piker / HasanAbi have an average Twitch viewership of 20,000 or less at the end of 2024?
|
He has been on a downward trend recently, with his average viewers previously being 32K in 2022 and 25K in 2023.
https://sullygnome.com/channel/hasanabi/365
[image]
|
2024-04-14T15:14:55
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:45:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-umB9eZVje3tyQ9yh7sKo
|
Will Iran attack Israel with another drone, missile or airstrike before the end of 2024?
|
On the territory of Israel not an Israeli in another country
|
2024-04-14T14:45:29
|
2024-10-01T14:41:56
|
2024-10-01T14:41:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GFZ8clwh8WfS4ERVsRLf
|
Will Noam Chomsky die in the next 30 days? (5/14/24)
|
Noam Chomsky is 95 and has not been speaking publicly as of late.
If Chomsky passes away between (inclusive) 4/14/24 and 5/14/24 this will resolve YES. If not It will resolve NO.
|
2024-04-14T11:56:55
|
2024-05-14T20:59:00
|
2024-05-19T13:25:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wehgxU5kAOyu94eEjnxw
|
Will Bitcoin hit $68K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-14T11:22:18
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:45:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NMfmjn4bLikBQehf5XjL
|
Will Bitcoin hit $69K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-14T11:21:55
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:46:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3UcoDQzPBNxGDVfe9uoG
|
Will Israel strike at Iran’s nuclear facilities in Natanz by the end of 2024.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-14T10:24:30
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-16T11:05:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PbuCceCTLlOMwDDmPkUR
|
Will Donald Trump be found guilty of any charges in the April NY trial?
|
Trump is accused of falsifying business records to hide the fact that he sought to silence allegations of extramarital affairs that surfaced during his 2016 presidential campaign.
|
2024-04-14T07:41:22
|
2024-05-30T17:51:21
|
2024-05-30T17:51:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wa5cbXOhKeO2uL4AzIQr
|
Will gold stay above $2,000 until the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-14T07:17:01
|
2024-12-21T23:59:00
|
2024-12-23T14:31:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tULJlrTWFHx3q9yWxO1M
|
US Presidential Debate in Q3?
|
Will there be a US Presidential Debate in “Q3”, defined as the period of time between July 1st and Sept 30th, 2024?
The debate must include both the DNC and RNC front-runners debating one another. Other nominees may be present, but the two major parties must partake for this to count.
See also, Q2:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/us-presidential-debate-in-q2)
|
2024-04-14T06:38:23
|
2024-09-10T20:59:00
|
2024-09-10T21:02:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3EVMpiv3mYoOKn7WVk1H
|
US Presidential Debate in Q2?
|
Will there be a US Presidential Debate in “Q2”, defined as the period of time between April 1st and June 30th, 2024?
The debate must include both the DNC and RNC front-runners debating one another. Other nominees may be present, but the two major parties must partake for this to count.
See also, Q3:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/us-presidential-debate-in-q3)
|
2024-04-14T06:37:35
|
2024-06-27T18:10:46
|
2024-06-27T18:10:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ObBcjSUilpSbE7CKyDz
|
Will Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) be the lowest grossing of the series? (Domestic)
|
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) opens May 10th, 2024. The previous movies have made quite a bit of money, data per TheNumbers all domestic totals:
Rise of the Planet of the Apes: $176.8M
Dawn of the Planet of the Apes: $208.5M
War for the Planet of the Apes: $146.8M
Will Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes make less money than War for…, the lowest grossing film in the series (only including the most recent series), at the domestic box office?
This will Resolve when Kingdom of… passes the third film at the domestic box office, when the 4th films is out of theaters, or when this is deemed to be mathematically impossible.
Also bet on
[markets]
|
2024-04-14T06:16:46
|
2024-06-09T11:18:56
|
2024-06-09T11:18:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6Is4fAkDFoWtyyDbtNDG
|
Israel directly strikes Iran by May
|
Proxy (eg arming/inciting a group to attack) attacks don’t count. Damage must violate Iranian territory (including embassies) or a foreign base, but striking a proxy group (like Hezbollah) won’t count.
Surgical retaliation (eg an assassination) will count so long as it occurs in any of the aforementioned domains.
Market won’t resolve til >3 days after close date to account for delay between the event and report (with a prolonged delay should a thereto unsubstantiated allegation emerge). Once resolved, the resolution won’t change even if new information comes to light.
Closes 00:00 May 1st, GMT
|
2024-04-14T02:22:17
|
2024-04-19T09:02:07
|
2024-04-19T09:02:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GTRNxGiYSs1H3mWRFv9o
|
Will the USA pass further sanctions on Iran or Iranian citizens within 30 days of their attack on Israel?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-14T00:19:39
|
2024-04-18T10:36:00
|
2024-04-18T10:36:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l27WISFSQoRFMCfTQy74
|
Will UN condemn Iran within 2 weeks after April 14 attack on Israel?
|
This question resolves YES if either the General Assembly or the Security Council of the United Nations issues any resolution that condemns Iran within two weeks after the April 14th attack by Iran on Israel.
|
2024-04-14T00:16:45
|
2024-04-28T16:59:00
|
2024-04-28T22:57:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QuMQsgF5Slc8G599K2hz
|
Will Iran/proxies attack US assets or personnel before May 14th, in retaliation for the US assisting Israel on Apr 13th?
|
Prior to the launch of drones and missiles toward Israel on April 13th, Iran warned the US not to intervene. Nonetheless the US did assist in intercepting drones en-route to Israel. According to the ISW:
Iran warned Israel’s partners, particularly the United States and Jordan, not to intervene in Iran’s attack against Israel. Supreme National Security Council-affiliated media warned the United States against intervening in Iran’s attack, claiming that Iran has prepared ballistic missile platforms to target “several US bases in the region.”[20] The Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN similarly warned the United States to “stay away” from the conflict between Iran and Israel.[21] The United States and the United Kingdom have intercepted over 100 drones outside of Israeli airspace at the time of this writing.[22]
Will Iran retaliate against the US, within the next month?
Resolves YES if Iran or their proxies
Attack any US military assets or personnel, civilian infrastructure or individuals, including military bases, embassies, military ships, civilian ships, US territory,
before May 14th, local time in Israel, and
there is credible reporting attributing to Iranian officials (they do not need to be identified) that the attack(s) were specifically in response to the US assisting Israel in the April 13th attack. I.e. unrelated attacks will not count.
An attack need not be successful or cause any casualties to count, but must be a kinetic attack with the potential to cause physical injury or property damage. i.e. cyber attacks do not count.
About civilian ships: cargo is irrelevant, but any American crew or passengers, the boat belonging to an American company or sailing under an American flag would count (as in any one of these would be sufficient).
I won't bet on this market.
|
2024-04-14T00:08:15
|
2024-05-13T13:59:59
|
2024-05-13T14:59:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8ZO545W9vF98wQYYviN6
|
Will Dan Osborn (Independent) be within 10 points of Deb Fischer (Republican incumbent) in the Nebraska Senate election?
|
Note that the Democratic party is not running a candidate.
|
2024-04-13T21:40:10
|
2024-11-06T15:12:03
|
2024-11-06T15:12:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hozqp49jC4Uu76vAEsaI
|
Will "The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" (2024) have >70% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?
|
"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/the_ministry_of_ungentlemanly_warfare
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 3rd (two weeks after release).
Details:
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).
For context, here are the Tomatometer scores for other recent films by the same director (Guy Ritchie):
Guy Ritchie's The Covenant - 83%
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre - 51%
Wrath of Man - 67%
"The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare" stars Henry Cavill ("Man of Steel") and Alan Ritchson ("Reacher").
|
2024-04-13T19:51:46
|
2024-05-03T06:29:53
|
2024-05-03T06:29:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dD1x602Eocn2otLHjtGF
|
Will Israel carry out a deadly attack responsible for at least 5 deaths within Iran before May 1, 2024? [Metaculus]
|
Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22403/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-13T19:21:12
|
2024-05-02T00:00:00
|
2024-05-02T01:28:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iXtRmRVxWGepUUFjwlCM
|
Will Israel or her allies Successfully Strike any of Iran's Nuclear Facilities Before Midnight Eastern June 13, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-13T17:44:53
|
2024-06-14T21:18:36
|
2024-06-14T21:18:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fUe0u1syqs3rFxfxSR2a
|
Will Bitcoin hit $70K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count - Apr 13, 2024, 7:23:33 PM
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-13T17:23:33
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:46:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4JZ2CnpTzDKLU2m9lHHy
|
Will Bitcoin hit $71K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-13T17:22:48
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:46:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vpob5NTNAL8F5BuddqcC
|
Will Iran and Israel deescalate their conflict next week?
|
Resolves as Yes if the actions taken in the week 13 Apr-21 Apr by both parties are less radical than the current state of missile launches and drone attacks.
|
2024-04-13T17:09:44
|
2024-04-18T18:41:35
|
2024-04-18T18:41:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wYhyVMSQbhrm0sJOaexO
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before May 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by May 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8
|
2024-04-13T16:30:39
|
2024-05-01T01:13:25
|
2024-05-01T01:13:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HyilfuCmfROgmaOITLmE
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Jul 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by July 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa (this question)
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8
|
2024-04-13T16:14:41
|
2024-07-04T08:57:16
|
2024-07-04T08:57:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RYFgGdY0oHZNhiQoSxCz
|
Will at least 10 people die from Israeli strikes on the Iranian mainland before June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-13T15:25:47
|
2024-05-31T14:59:00
|
2024-05-31T15:25:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cyvyw6tg4Ux8TeKixm7t
|
Will the US strike Iranian soil before May 2024?
|
The US military must be launching the strike.
|
2024-04-13T15:22:26
|
2024-04-30T14:59:00
|
2024-04-30T15:31:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-id3P1Q1BENmnbnVJ1QnF
|
Will any Israeli civilians die as a result of an Iranian attack before May?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-13T14:47:19
|
2024-04-30T20:37:26
|
2024-04-30T20:37:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0d3ALionLDpce22tesOo
|
Will Israel attack Iran within one week of being attacked by them?
|
Related:
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-72-h
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-30-d
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053
[image]
|
2024-04-13T14:46:23
|
2024-04-18T18:45:18
|
2024-04-18T18:45:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qe2YVE9z0jgNPggSpPwI
|
Will Israel launch an air, missile, or drone strike on any part of Iran before the end of 2024?
|
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053
[image]
|
2024-04-13T13:50:31
|
2024-04-18T21:10:27
|
2024-04-18T21:10:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wd9uzghhYCLLPb97qqXD
|
Will Israel attack Iran within 72 hours of being attacked by them?
|
Related:
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-one
@/strutheo/will-israel-attack-iran-within-30-d
Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68810053
[image]
|
2024-04-13T13:50:10
|
2024-04-16T16:01:00
|
2024-04-16T16:08:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-En73gBPhyWGSikueE5o0
|
Will bitcoin be above $69696.96 at the end of May?
|
Nice?
Using price from Google at the close of this market (Eastern time)
|
2024-04-13T13:24:13
|
2024-05-31T20:59:00
|
2024-05-31T21:17:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w71Gv3mHmbb97hmMA99z
|
Will today's Iranian attacks on Israel result in ten or more Israeli deaths?
|
This question will resolve to yes if Iran kills ten or more Israelis on Israelian soil by the end of Sunday, April 14th.
|
2024-04-13T13:15:03
|
2024-04-14T22:22:04
|
2024-04-14T22:22:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G9n8NEwUTITBSblWyOlR
|
Will Israel go to war against Iran by June of 2024
|
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68796363.amp
|
2024-04-13T12:52:25
|
2024-06-30T11:29:00
|
2024-08-03T08:47:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4puU9e7TCPtOcNBiZsU3
|
Will the New York Times refer to Donald Trump as “dehumanizing” in a headline in April?
|
We’ll be a bit liberal here, and will include descriptions of Donald Trump, his speech, politics, his actions…etc. But it must be related to the man. Other derivations of the word count: dehumanization, dehumanizing, dehumanized…etc.
It must be published by the New York Times (opinion counts too!) and must be in the headline, not subheading. And this must occur after the creation of this market.
|
2024-04-13T12:37:47
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T05:22:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SxM5XRac63ekRYSDAQM4
|
Will Trump underperform in the general polls again? (2024 RCP Average)
|
Many people are saying this year Trump will do worse than expected, due to overperforming in the Republican primary polls, however he has exceeded expectations twice in presidential elections. Will that change in 2024?
I will take the RealClearPolling General Election Average on the day of the election (currently +0.1 Harris).
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
Resolves YES If the difference in popular vote between Trump and the Democratic candidate in the actual election is >=1 point better for Trump than the RCP average.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not the Republican Nominee/RCP stops aggregating polls before the election.
Otherwise, resolves NO.
Previous years:
2016 - +3.3% Clinton in polls / +2.1% Clinton in election
2020 - +7.2% Biden in polls / +4.5% Biden in election
|
2024-04-12T14:12:35
|
2024-11-10T20:59:00
|
2024-12-16T13:19:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jZY3KGTEHj6IKvaAzsOJ
|
Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator if they apply?
|
Same as this market but resolves n/a if they never apply.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/beccapao/will-lantern-bioworks-be-accepted-t)
|
2024-04-12T13:55:15
|
2024-06-02T20:30:27
|
2024-06-02T20:30:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9H6ebhmaTM4G6gVDkD5V
|
[Metaculus] Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?
|
Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22298/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.
(https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F)Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-12T11:18:49
|
2024-05-14T09:51:41
|
2024-05-14T09:51:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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