id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-4x96V9EFKIKsXdlkbAQa | [Metaculus] Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024? | Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20917/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves positively if at any point in time during the year 2024, there are credible reports that Armed Fo... | 2024-04-12T11:18:46 | 2025-01-02T03:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:58:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AO4RHEAX4N2ldNVa6Tbx | Will Jonas Vingegaard start the 2024 Tour de France? | I will resolve NO as soon as he announces that he won't participate. Otherwise, I will resolve YES the day the Tour starts. | 2024-04-12T10:54:25 | 2024-06-29T20:59:00 | 2024-06-30T00:09:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QkeNikTWnOX9YDlam1pd | Will Trump's Vice President Running Mate be announced before Bitcoin reaches $80K? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-12T09:24:40 | 2024-07-15T12:52:29 | 2024-07-15T12:52:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fPexdmSQfsk9APkO0nyn | Will fast take-off happen this year? | Examples of things that will probably cause this question to resolve YES:
we all find ourselves transported into a digital world
you wake up to the sound of swarming nanobots
nobody dies all day
If you've ever read "the metamorphosis of prime intellect" you'll know the sort of thing I'm talking about. | 2024-04-12T08:39:39 | 2024-12-31T02:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:35:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mj2lW3jKLUXq7xvESu3G | Will Anthropic reclaim the #1 position on ChatBot Arena / LMSYS in April 2024? | # 1 Position: Model with the highest ELO score
Previous:
@/Soli/will-anyone-other-than-openai-rank
@/Soli/will-openai-reclaim-the-1-position | 2024-04-12T07:48:38 | 2024-04-30T14:59:00 | 2024-04-30T21:13:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6BfJI9ywBpdngEKDCpMH | Will Iran attack Israel within 72 hours as stated in the rumors Wall Street Journal is reporting on? | Link: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-attack-expected-on-israel-in-next-two-days-42b0537c
[image] | 2024-04-12T06:16:17 | 2024-04-13T17:06:30 | 2024-04-13T17:06:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m0XIryprTeXqJl10hats | Will RFK Jr. get at least 5 percent of the national popular vote? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-12T01:18:44 | 2024-11-06T13:58:00 | 2024-11-12T10:52:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JMrVsuG8zto8S1eqA42N | Will Iran strike Israel by the end of April 2024? | A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.
(Extension of https://manifold.markets/Elliot_dev/will-iran-strike-israel-in-the-next.) | 2024-04-11T22:57:55 | 2024-04-13T19:27:12 | 2024-04-13T19:27:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9U6uLqyZFG9ZRNT2Jfho | Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in May 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-04-11T21:05:55 | 2024-05-31T23:59:00 | 2024-06-01T08:21:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8AGy4sYbRqWY8rX81XQm | Will Bitcoin dip to $58K in May 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
If the price of Bitcoin remains $58K or below on May 1st, market will resolve to YES | 2024-04-11T21:05:08 | 2024-05-01T08:47:15 | 2024-05-01T08:47:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ik1cujzVzDFOXFTeWpun | Will there be a NYT article about the Lumina Probiotic (from Lantern Bioworks) in 2024? | The Lumina Probiotic is a new product from Lantern Bioworks that claims to reduce cavities. Its commercial success (and potential regulatory future) will be influenced by the sort of news coverage it receives.
This market resolves YES if the New York Times releases an article in 2024 that is "about" the Lumina Probiot... | 2024-04-11T18:38:00 | 2024-04-21T11:57:42 | 2024-04-21T11:57:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rj1OVi4A55MvWCKdXMNj | Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024? | OpenAI took back the lead on the leaderboard from Anthropic on 2024-04-11, will they ever lose it again this year?
Resolves NO if the first on the below list is from another organization than OpenAI.
Resolves to YES otherwise.
Resolves to N/A if leaderboard doesn't exist, at least in some similar form, at EOY 2024.
[... | 2024-04-11T16:06:01 | 2024-08-01T10:03:04 | 2024-08-01T10:03:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OwSPcspntKHKdalqx0wL | Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term? | The question will resolve no if the regularly scheduled elections take place between the 27.08.2025 and the 26.10.2025.
The question will resolve yes if the elections take place outside of regular scheduling or the Ampel coalition breaks apart. | 2024-04-11T15:05:58 | 2024-11-07T22:30:30 | 2024-11-07T22:30:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fpFTJ2pc9pW0X2IAOcsn | Will Bitcoin (BTCUSD) close GREEN 🟢or RED 🔴 on the day of the Halving? | Description: The Bitcoin Halving is rapidly approaching!
All signs point to the Halving taking place on April 19, 2024.
Now, the big question: Will the Halving be a “sell-the-news” event?
Market Details:
Market Identifier: BTCUSD (Resolves to BTCUSDT on Binance)
Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the t... | 2024-04-11T14:33:59 | 2024-04-20T17:50:43 | 2024-04-20T17:50:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ | Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator? | Lantern is planning to apply to YCombinator. Question resolves as "no" if they don't. | 2024-04-11T08:37:22 | 2024-06-02T20:29:01 | 2024-06-02T20:29:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZOi3w3oTNnFhXWEJQO3s | Will the next U.S. President sign an Executive Order related to AI within their First 100 Days? | Resolves YES if the next U.S. President (2024-2028) signs an Executive Act pertaining specifically to Artificial Intelligence (AI) within their first 100 days in office.
If the inauguration takes place as scheduled on January 20, 2025, then the 100th day of the new administration would fall on April 30, 2025.
Related... | 2024-04-11T07:00:20 | 2025-01-23T22:19:34 | 2025-01-23T22:19:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RrwdXaihc2CDTdbUnyOq | Will there be a nuclear explosion on earth by June 1st 24’ | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-11T02:36:13 | 2024-06-04T21:11:06 | 2024-06-04T21:11:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V95AkxtcNQBb3CzE2HcM | Will Trump take back the lead over Biden on ElectionBettingOdds.com with one week? | Will resolve based on https://electionbettingodds.com/
Resolves NO if they are even. | 2024-04-11T02:10:45 | 2024-04-18T06:59:00 | 2024-04-18T18:37:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V6x7FFFj8TwsrOBsPQmT | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 11? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-10T23:02:22 | 2024-04-11T21:07:31 | 2024-04-11T21:07:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NCQx7hEngCghgKZ0WrBh | Will Iran carry out an attack which leads to the death of at least 5 people within Israel before May 1st? [Metaculus] | Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22161/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, cred... | 2024-04-10T19:51:33 | 2024-05-01T11:58:28 | 2024-05-01T11:58:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IlhZAoH3rPFuLMmemWPs | Will Trump announce a VP pick before July? | Must be an official announcement, not a passing comment or suggestion. | 2024-04-10T19:50:58 | 2024-06-30T23:59:00 | 2024-07-01T12:57:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-32VNeAmZUp17XAkZS2Jc | Will the Espionage Act charges against Julian Assange be dropped by the Biden Administration in 2024? | https://news.sky.com/story/us-considering-dropping-julian-assange-prosecution-joe-biden-says-13112352
This question will resolve YES if the Espionage Act charges against Julian Assange are dropped under the Biden Administration in 2024. | 2024-04-10T17:27:14 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-20T18:54:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-L0Xen5aWb3CAAe15d9k0 | At the end of 4/20 will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight? | Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ | 2024-04-10T13:39:55 | 2024-04-20T20:59:00 | 2024-04-21T04:12:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8U6crQ3YLUA0XNpcxzPg | Will Spotify acquire an AI music generation company in the next 6 months? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-10T13:07:33 | 2024-10-10T06:43:53 | 2024-10-10T06:43:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-35UMvP806SD0I8H88fbm | Will Manchester City win out their remaining Premier League games? | This market seeks to predict whether Manchester City will have a perfect finish to their 2023-2024 Premier League campaign by winning all of their remaining league matches starting from game week 32.
This market will resolve as "Yes" if Manchester City wins each Premier League match they play from April 11, 2024, unti... | 2024-04-10T11:38:53 | 2024-05-19T10:01:43 | 2024-05-19T10:01:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mc1Po1N9mXlxAjFBMi9W | [Metaculus] Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025? | Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21320/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1... | 2024-04-10T07:50:44 | 2024-09-23T11:15:49 | 2024-09-23T11:15:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k5nAvPPaISPPT9WoWDx9 | Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 (Brazil) | [image]🏈 2024 NFL Season
Resolves YES if they win
Resolves NO if the other team (2nd team in question) wins or ties
Close date will be updated if game is rescheduled or postponed
Resolves N/A if the game or season is cancelled
São Paulo, Brazil | 2024-04-10T07:12:31 | 2024-09-06T20:49:22 | 2024-09-06T20:49:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-idfUsMIZpZPE1T5OcLhD | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 10? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-10T00:26:01 | 2024-04-10T21:59:00 | 2024-04-10T22:52:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bX32D8QZRnIsIGQJdkuy | Will OpenAI reclaim the #1 position on ChatBot Arena / LMSYS in April 2024? | # 1 Position: Model with the highest ELO score | 2024-04-09T22:31:26 | 2024-04-11T22:24:20 | 2024-04-11T22:24:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z9Vhc0L7hohKYRtugnYU | Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head? | Resolves "yes" if Lady Gaga's character in Joker: Folie à Deux is revealed to be partially or wholly a figment of Arthur Fleck's imagination. | 2024-04-09T21:49:19 | 2024-10-04T20:59:00 | 2024-10-13T09:51:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-30PBPFupPWbNrDBpDUhz | At the end of May will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight? | Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ | 2024-04-09T21:26:38 | 2024-05-31T17:24:49 | 2024-05-31T17:24:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vaYUa2pm7376xGSw6x3R | Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of April? | Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ | 2024-04-09T21:26:25 | 2024-04-30T18:03:13 | 2024-04-30T18:03:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XL7hDzoSSCnhXvS3i9a5 | Will Bitcoin go below $48K in 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-04-09T21:00:56 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:03:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FUhbwtvW9EAS4q2yEj3r | Will Ross Ulbricht be released from prison before January 1st, 2030? | Efforts are being made to obtain clemency.
https://freeross.org/
Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
The market will close on January 2, 2030 at 04:59 UTC.
If documentation of Ross Ulbricht's release is found before this date, the market will resolve immediately upon such d... | 2024-04-09T18:47:46 | 2025-01-22T07:10:37 | 2025-01-22T07:10:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pU4xeOHpftaMGFT17zfg | Will Bitcoin reach $87654.32 before the end of 2024? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-04-09T16:47:08 | 2024-11-11T15:55:21 | 2024-11-11T15:55:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZtGjcht7EZ5qt1iY2NU0 | Will Bitcoin hit $72.5K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-09T15:28:14 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:46:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OlABBo0yOM5rUd0hF4gB | Will the Denver Nuggets repeat as NBA champions in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-09T13:40:25 | 2024-05-19T19:38:28 | 2024-05-19T19:38:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RgYeg7JdFg0DkB4L9Piy | Will "3 Body Problem" stay in the Netflix Global Top 10 for at least 6 consecutive weeks? (Through April 28th) | Source: The Netflix Global Top 10: TV (English).
Context: So far, "3 Body Problem" has stayed in the top 10 for three consecutive weeks—March 18-24, March 25-31, and April 1-7. In the most recent week (April 1-7), it was the #1 show on Netflix.
Resolution: This market resolves YES if "3 Body Problem: Season 1" appea... | 2024-04-09T13:34:37 | 2024-04-30T14:22:27 | 2024-04-30T14:22:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IhqEk0sATMbG1qSob9KC | Will Charles Leclerc score more points than Carlos Sainz at the 2024 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Charles Leclerc outscores Carlos Sainz over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores a point, resolves based on classification order in the main race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subje... | 2024-04-09T13:26:58 | 2024-05-05T14:58:36 | 2024-05-05T14:58:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-seak4Q0dMsjalLHOBBWD | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix? | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on May 5, 2024.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.gith... | 2024-04-09T13:26:41 | 2024-05-05T15:10:00 | 2024-05-05T15:10:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xAzfjO4PPYAF6VM1wSD6 | Will X, formerly known as Twitter, have a major outage within a month? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-09T13:20:31 | 2024-05-09T14:59:00 | 2024-05-09T22:08:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NV1KuY4TBD1kctXfnljx | Will Elon Musk make a $1mil+ bet that "AI [will be] smarter than any one human probably around the end of [2025]"? | Elon Musk recently claimed on X that he expects human-level AI around the end of next year. Gary Marcus challenged him on this by offering to bet one million dollars to the contrary, and shortly after Damion Hankiejh offered to raise it to ten million: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human... | 2024-04-09T13:11:38 | 2024-05-09T20:59:00 | 2024-05-09T21:41:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ikS2mmaXe4GxW5rYQPk2 | Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024? | Elon Musk says that SpaceX will try to land a booster at some time in the future at the Tower at Boca Chica. He is optimistic that this will happen in 2024 with a chance of 80-90%.
The Market will resolve YES, when:
SpaceX attempts a landing at Boca Chica with the Booster
Booster lands or crashes near the launch s... | 2024-04-09T11:16:31 | 2024-10-19T11:03:32 | 2024-10-19T11:03:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lQQqMvF8hmdrSrWwiHIG | Will there be a ceasefire for at least a month in the Israel-Hamas conflict before 1 Jan 2025? | Resolves to mainstream news consensus. Ceasefire must be between Israel and Hamas, continued fighting with Hezbollah or other paramilitaries/nations doesn’t count as breaking of the ceasefire. The ceasefire is broken if there is fighting again between Israel and Hamas in the form of shots fired. | 2024-04-09T10:50:24 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-03T07:55:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fVW1MNNlB6YwwMsDpv54 | Will "Monkey Man" gross >$5 million (domestic) during the weekend of April 12 - 14? | Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if its weekend gross for April 12 - 14 is >$5 million.
For example, last weekend (April 5 - 7) "Monkey Man" grossed $10,119,435. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $5M would be a roughly ~50% drop from last we... | 2024-04-09T09:05:44 | 2024-04-16T13:21:30 | 2024-04-16T13:21:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GaFNHQuLoiwX25Zjxlby | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 2024? | Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos | 2024-04-09T07:52:30 | 2024-04-29T17:59:57 | 2024-04-29T17:59:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C6QXFtE65WA4AZxh1zrY | Will Real Madrid beat Manchester City during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | ⚽ Real Madrid vs Manchester City
📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regul... | 2024-04-09T06:59:16 | 2024-04-09T14:39:23 | 2024-04-09T14:39:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gk8DLryc0OVvq2uCNEii | Will Arsenal beat Bayern Munich during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | ⚽ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time pl... | 2024-04-09T06:59:14 | 2024-04-09T14:39:20 | 2024-04-09T14:39:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NnD4RU8lzhsr5p3NGBVu | Will Scott Alexander make a 6+ digit bet related to COVID, by EOY 2024? | If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being willing to answer every possible lab leak argument going forward, but hopefully offering lab leakers a few hund... | 2024-04-09T06:56:56 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:17:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G6uua1rq01OKqV5bhHZD | Will "Civil War" (2024) have >=90% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | "Civil War" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics’ aggregate score, not audiences) on April 19th (one week after release).
Trailer
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/aDyQxtg0V2w)Market was stolen from @Ziddletwix‘s market below, with a higher percent and a shorter time ... | 2024-04-09T06:29:45 | 2024-04-19T23:59:00 | 2024-04-20T04:47:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jseAIyiNKGS73xj2XoDE | Will Andrej Karpathy start or cofound his own AI company before EOY 2024? | Andrej Karpathy is a prominent AI researcher.
From 2015 to 2017, Andrej Karpathy was a founding member of OpenAI. From 2017 to 2022, he was the Senior Director of AI at Tesla. From 2023 to early 2024, he returned to work at OpenAI.
Karpathy creates high quality guides for modern deep learning. As of 4/9, he has 430K ... | 2024-04-09T05:59:37 | 2024-07-22T12:28:50 | 2024-07-22T12:28:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IVsf7KBrjqUzdb30Odo0 | Will OpenAI release the weights of GPT-3? (2024) | Any license. @Mira must be able to access the weights. Any variant of GPT-3 counts, including original GPT-3, GPT-3.5, GPT-3.5 Turbo, or quantized versions. | 2024-04-09T03:55:16 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:56:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8VLRiiyz1Pz3LsEq5Pus | Will there be 7 or more goals scored in the two legs of Real Madrid - Man. City combined? | If the match goes to penalty shootout, those will not count. | 2024-04-09T02:32:31 | 2024-04-17T12:34:41 | 2024-04-17T12:34:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NgrEqPg3cNgcjv5GhkiY | Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024? | Kinetically, i.e. with a missile/bomb of some sort.
[tweet]Clarification: A nuclear site is any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil. | 2024-04-08T22:58:46 | 2024-11-16T16:36:57 | 2024-11-16T16:36:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ng14iuvy52vasgppvsJv | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 9? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-08T20:37:29 | 2024-04-09T21:59:00 | 2024-04-10T00:21:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JJWCaoP6wEMo6ncI75LU | Will Ethereum hit $4350 in 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-08T17:42:32 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-02-01T22:54:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pMVoyja2pA3gZkd299Vi | Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross >$5 million (domestic) during the weekend of April 12 - 14? | Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if its weekend gross for April 12 - 14 is >$5 million.
For example, last weekend (April 5 - 7) "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" grossed $9,003,197. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $5M would be a roughly ~45% d... | 2024-04-08T15:59:09 | 2024-04-17T08:07:20 | 2024-04-17T08:07:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-71MxreWqLm4slu03yUxc | Will Trump come back to X (Twitter) in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-08T14:40:31 | 2024-08-12T00:54:45 | 2024-08-12T00:54:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NAZSDPrSg9j6g5EKW1vz | Will Bitcoin hit $74.5K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-08T08:50:12 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:47:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dP2S7M3pC16zjcTpC2uO | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 18th 2024? | Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos | 2024-04-08T08:23:35 | 2024-04-18T20:59:00 | 2024-04-19T16:12:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UAeyo66UulJIbxOYmSTz | Will Stan Lee appear in Deadpool and Wolverine? | Stan Lee created Marvel Comics with Jack Kirby (don’t @ me, I know this is controversial) and appeared in nearly every Marvel movie past his death in 2018.
Will Stan Lee appear in Deadpool & Wolverine?
The likelihood is that this would be archival footage, as the man is no longer alive to record new footage, but this... | 2024-04-08T07:52:59 | 2024-07-25T19:32:25 | 2024-07-25T19:32:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i6rwahHsrwmgE4NZRXp3 | Will Donald Trump announce his VP pick by the end of April? | Will Donald Trump announce his selection for vice president by the end of April?
YES: Donald Trump selects a running mate during the month of April
NO: It is May 1, 2024, and Trump has not yet named his VP
note 1: if Trump drops out of race, dies, or in any other way not a candidate anymore during the month of April... | 2024-04-08T07:36:52 | 2024-04-30T19:05:39 | 2024-04-30T19:05:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-js7YLvu5MCJvIcOdASxF | Will "Civil War" (2024) be the highest grossing A24 film domestically? (>77M, for EEAAO) | A24 has been enormously successful as an indie studio, but they have ambitions to enter the mainstream. "Civil War" (2024) is an early big swing, carrying the largest budget for the studio to date.
Currently, the A24 film with the highest domestic gross is the Oscar-sweeping "Everything Everywhere All At Once", with $... | 2024-04-08T05:23:27 | 2024-06-26T10:56:20 | 2024-06-26T10:56:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uXmhdIJxtgmjbo6zCGoT | Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, by June 30, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-08T04:42:29 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-02T04:54:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMszOCV5uvzN27x9C7SN | 📱 Will Apple have a product release event in May 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023
Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES. | 2024-04-08T03:27:30 | 2024-05-07T08:02:20 | 2024-05-07T08:02:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-meeaupCZpKu4HgJIhsms | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 8? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-07T23:19:44 | 2024-04-08T20:38:12 | 2024-04-08T20:38:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TthLRwWLetwVuYQ5KRTI | Will Dwarkesh Patel interview Sam Altman by the end of 2024? | This could be an appearance on Dwarkesh Patel's podcast or a public interview conducted by Dwarkesh on another platform. ie: done over twitter spaces, at a tech conference, etc. | 2024-04-07T09:18:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T08:20:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LFRsLo3jsVebQzzE8BqZ | Will Ted Cruz be Trump's running mate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-07T09:08:39 | 2024-07-15T13:29:05 | 2024-07-15T13:29:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-07uV3FB8v7H7UbqtLskq | [NOT short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,300.00 before 5,100.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,300.00 or 5,100.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-07).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,100.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,300.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-04-07T08:31:16 | 2024-04-15T14:02:46 | 2024-04-15T14:02:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hoSJIhq4SDqeTJ9pcIf6 | Will Bitcoin hit $76543 before $65432? | Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $76543 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $65432 first
Market close date will be extended as needed. | 2024-04-07T08:03:18 | 2024-04-13T05:36:35 | 2024-04-13T05:36:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rkBM9wiAK3syCytn9tPO | Will Iran strike Israel in the next week? | The market will resolve as yes if Iran strikes Israel by the experation date of the market. Else the market will resolve no.
A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area. | 2024-04-07T02:55:31 | 2024-04-13T19:48:22 | 2024-04-13T19:48:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kZXjYFXfsL7pxNgrFizV | Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | The market will resolve as YES if by the end of 2024 any country officially admits to sending any number of troops to Ukraine to act in any capacity on the Ukrainian side. This can include personnel directly participating in combat, as well as special forces, intelligence, instructors etc. The troops do not have to be ... | 2024-04-07T02:55:05 | 2024-10-29T05:10:35 | 2024-10-29T05:10:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WSgJH0eTWIxVXsuCZEEn | Will the phrase "Machine Learning" be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | Including the moderators. Must be the specific phrase "machine learning", no other form of the phrase will count. | 2024-04-07T02:20:05 | 2024-10-31T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:39:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aTRI5miDBEIHNSdR4Foi | Will a planet other than Earth be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | Including the moderators. Not counting the Moon. | 2024-04-07T02:17:03 | 2024-10-31T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:39:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pYoKR39TqotcAMvvcwTB | Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | Including the moderators | 2024-04-07T02:13:36 | 2024-10-31T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:40:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sNSrm1QtmTvxiJipjNKe | Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first ten Starship flights? | A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.
| 2024-04-06T22:51:16 | 2024-10-13T21:40:11 | 2024-10-13T21:40:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zjzk8AqroFnswvHRL0Dx | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 7? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-06T20:34:19 | 2024-04-07T21:59:00 | 2024-04-07T23:19:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5WNBE9ZOl0RXRpkoEyLz | Will Trump look at the eclipse without eye protection again? | This market will resolve yes if there is an NYT article by the market close that includes a photo of Trump looking at the sun with no eye protection taken during the 2024 eclipse
Otherwise resolves No | 2024-04-06T19:32:42 | 2024-04-14T06:59:00 | 2024-04-17T05:50:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ReT9HBnmbIDrvxkyy7Gu | Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's seventh 'orbital' test flight? | SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the seventh IFT.... | 2024-04-06T17:55:42 | 2025-01-16T15:57:09 | 2025-01-16T15:57:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wOIy6YFJtGpjPAX8G1pY | If someone solves Taelin's $10,000 LLM symbol manipulation challenge within a month, will they receive the money? | https://twitter.com/VictorTaelin/status/1776677635491344744
See @IsaacKing's market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-taelins-10000-llm-symbol-manip)The 1 month deadline refers to the date of the solution being posted publicly, not the date that Taelin confirms it or pays out. If Taelin tries to back ... | 2024-04-06T14:39:22 | 2024-04-15T15:28:50 | 2024-04-16T00:59:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq | Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024 | Will Russia control the small city Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut autumn 2024?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chasiv_Yar
Resolves yes if Chasiv Yar is marked as under russian control by deepstate map on september 1st 2024, or if deepstate map is unavailable, credible media sources report Chasiv Yar as being under Russia... | 2024-04-06T05:48:01 | 2024-09-01T14:59:00 | 2024-09-02T03:40:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PTLa60sHN0fISadXCxx9 | Will "Inside Out 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Despicable Me 4"? | This market resolves YES if "Inside Out 2" (2024) receives a strictly higher CinemaScore than "Despicable Me 4" (2024).
Other details:
For reference, "Inside Out" (2015) received an A.
This is strictly higher than the A- for "Despicable Me 3" (2017).
It is not strictly higher than the A for "Minions: The Rise of Gr... | 2024-04-06T05:35:48 | 2024-07-04T09:36:31 | 2024-07-04T09:36:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S2walXRsVLY7FGCXElol | Will the Bun JavaScript runtime surpass Node in GitHub stars during 2024? | Bun is being developed as an alternative to node that is more modern, easier to work with, and waaaay faster. It has some cool features like supporting typescript and jsx out of the box. It looks like an interesting project, but will it have more GitHub stars than node in 2024?
GitHub: https://github.com/Oven-sh/bun
... | 2024-04-06T05:06:15 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:10:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-72gbNekyaCeyHDsk5NpG | Will Jon Tester outperform the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits? | in percentage margin vs the Republican | 2024-04-06T04:49:18 | 2024-11-11T14:33:29 | 2024-11-11T14:33:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uZVQ73Tfe5Sl48V7XMeJ | Will Iran engage in significant attack on Israel to avenge death of Rev Guard General? (Expires 6pm EDT April 15, 2024) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-06T04:23:09 | 2024-04-13T15:56:53 | 2024-04-13T15:56:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gHDCnNLnvr3Ywt3Fo7Vh | Will Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens debate in 2024? | voice debate. Doesn't have to be released in 2024, just happen | 2024-04-06T01:20:10 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T12:05:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OfWjGVZ4mBtISez02lme | NCAA Women’s National Championship Game: Will IOWA beat SOUTH CAROLINA? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-05T20:37:52 | 2024-04-07T15:18:44 | 2024-04-07T15:18:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9nnzx5izg0jsfP7aDmBG | Will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election? | Resolves NO if Swift does not endorse a candidate.
Resolves NO if Swift endorses Joe Biden.
The endorsement, if any, must be on or before election day. | 2024-04-05T15:42:47 | 2024-09-11T04:54:22 | 2024-09-11T04:54:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NYlbmLTGGObI2zGExHHb | [Forecast] Will Bitcoin close higher April 10th than April 5th? | Resolves to: Coingecko
Mods may resolve
This market closes at 8pm on April 9
EDT Timezone | 2024-04-05T15:11:00 | 2024-04-09T17:00:00 | 2024-04-11T01:03:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5V2Bl9Sh7VLMQHo3oz0y | [Musk fact check] Will the Tesla Robotaxi be unveiled on August 8th 2024? | This question resolves as YES if there is an event executed on August 8th (local time or PST if it is online), whether it be a livestream, in-person event, or any other format (no special requirements). Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
The bait:
[tweet] | 2024-04-05T14:15:58 | 2024-08-08T14:59:00 | 2024-08-09T00:36:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VtUt4gBlBfgGPIzYU6BK | Will the 118th congress pass a ban on congressional stock trading? | A ban on congressional stock seems to have bipartisan support on congress, yet congresspeople can still trade individual stocks. Congresspeople have access to a huge amount of classified information, and there’s a history of congresspeople using this information to gain a competitive advantage in the market. So, why ha... | 2024-04-05T12:35:06 | 2025-01-03T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T21:02:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5XPX94l5MEPEdlRYoYvn | Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship? | SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff.
The teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt. | 2024-04-05T12:26:42 | 2025-01-12T07:37:57 | 2025-01-12T07:37:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-44SGVnKZ2KonvkBFa20u | If convicted, will Donald Trump receive a custodial sentence in the NY criminal case? | The state of New York brought a felony indictment against Donald Trump for falsifying business records. The case is scheduled to go to trial in April.
This market resolves YES if Trump receives any kind of custodial sentence, regardless of the length of that sentence or whether he actually serves it. Any custodial sen... | 2024-04-05T11:30:22 | 2025-01-10T09:19:39 | 2025-01-10T09:19:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KZOsRNLK1WopQSIUHGkB | GPT-4.5 released this quarter? | Resolves the same way as https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt4p5/gpt45-released
If GPT-4.5 has been released by Jun 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that OpenAI has released a large language model named GPT-4.5, or which is ... | 2024-04-05T09:15:51 | 2024-05-15T16:11:08 | 2024-05-15T17:31:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wdkYmwhrUcBIwk4wXBX1 | Will we have a free chatbot that can reliably solve "what weight more" questions by end of 2024? | When I ask Gemini or ChatGPT free version:
"What weight more: six kg of feather or one kg of steel?"
They say the steel weights more. Will we have a free general-purpose chatbot that can answer this correctly by EOY 2024?
Will try 10 variations on Gemini, ChatGPT and any chatbot suggested in comment. Will resolve t... | 2024-04-05T03:05:39 | 2024-05-22T07:37:23 | 2024-05-22T07:37:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AHXKcMviDB4bcmkpsT9A | Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did) | Opera issued a press release titled "Opera becomes the first major browser with built-in access to local AI models."
Will any other major browsers follow suit*?
[image]* Access in beta or dev mode would suffice to resolve this market as yes
Update 2024-15-12 (PST): Canary (experimental) versions of browsers do not ... | 2024-04-05T00:48:36 | 2024-12-17T13:59:25 | 2024-12-17T13:59:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CeRzn9STktf6AuURGgiK | Will Israel open another border crossing for aid into Gaza? | Context: The White House says Netanyahu agreed to open another border crossing for aid after pressure from Biden.
The Israeli government must confirm the additional crossing is open for aid for this to Resolve YES, and at least one truck must pass through the crossing.
This has to happen by the end of April, to be an... | 2024-04-04T17:37:20 | 2024-04-12T07:25:24 | 2024-04-12T07:25:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uQq3o8K9M9tiCUqgALMg | Will another aid worker die by air strike in Gaza in 2024? | Context: Israel plans to adjust Gaza war tactics after killing of aid workers
Will they fail to adjust? Will another aid worker die in Gaza by air strike in 2024? | 2024-04-04T17:30:05 | 2024-07-16T09:59:35 | 2024-07-16T09:59:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aEutpvSQ3BpveM0nXcic | IDF killed an Iranian general in Revolution Guard recently. Will Iran respond by attacking Israel within 48 hours? | Expires on Saturday April 6, 2024 at 6pm EDT (NYC time). Response will be according to news reports in NYTimes and WSJ. | 2024-04-04T13:12:55 | 2024-04-06T16:52:59 | 2024-04-06T16:52:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rtz346aNIWJxVExmnuJD | Will Iran launch an air, missile, or drone strike on any part of Israel or Palestine before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-04T12:45:09 | 2024-04-13T14:31:52 | 2024-04-13T14:31:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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