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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-4x96V9EFKIKsXdlkbAQa
|
[Metaculus] Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?
|
Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20917/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves positively if at any point in time during the year 2024, there are credible reports that Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details) or that AFU have launched one.
Alternatively, the question will resolve positively if the missile is unambiguously listed on the page dedicated to Military support for Ukraine on the German Federal Government's official site. If this page is unavailable, another page may be used as a resolution source as long as it belongs to the German Federal Government's official site and contains a list of military equipment provided to Ukraine by Germany.
If these criteria weren't met until 1 January 2025, 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-12T11:18:46
|
2025-01-02T03:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:58:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AO4RHEAX4N2ldNVa6Tbx
|
Will Jonas Vingegaard start the 2024 Tour de France?
|
I will resolve NO as soon as he announces that he won't participate. Otherwise, I will resolve YES the day the Tour starts.
|
2024-04-12T10:54:25
|
2024-06-29T20:59:00
|
2024-06-30T00:09:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QkeNikTWnOX9YDlam1pd
|
Will Trump's Vice President Running Mate be announced before Bitcoin reaches $80K?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-12T09:24:40
|
2024-07-15T12:52:29
|
2024-07-15T12:52:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fPexdmSQfsk9APkO0nyn
|
Will fast take-off happen this year?
|
Examples of things that will probably cause this question to resolve YES:
we all find ourselves transported into a digital world
you wake up to the sound of swarming nanobots
nobody dies all day
If you've ever read "the metamorphosis of prime intellect" you'll know the sort of thing I'm talking about.
|
2024-04-12T08:39:39
|
2024-12-31T02:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:35:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mj2lW3jKLUXq7xvESu3G
|
Will Anthropic reclaim the #1 position on ChatBot Arena / LMSYS in April 2024?
|
# 1 Position: Model with the highest ELO score
Previous:
@/Soli/will-anyone-other-than-openai-rank
@/Soli/will-openai-reclaim-the-1-position
|
2024-04-12T07:48:38
|
2024-04-30T14:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:13:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6BfJI9ywBpdngEKDCpMH
|
Will Iran attack Israel within 72 hours as stated in the rumors Wall Street Journal is reporting on?
|
Link: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iranian-attack-expected-on-israel-in-next-two-days-42b0537c
[image]
|
2024-04-12T06:16:17
|
2024-04-13T17:06:30
|
2024-04-13T17:06:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m0XIryprTeXqJl10hats
|
Will RFK Jr. get at least 5 percent of the national popular vote?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-12T01:18:44
|
2024-11-06T13:58:00
|
2024-11-12T10:52:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JMrVsuG8zto8S1eqA42N
|
Will Iran strike Israel by the end of April 2024?
|
A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.
(Extension of https://manifold.markets/Elliot_dev/will-iran-strike-israel-in-the-next.)
|
2024-04-11T22:57:55
|
2024-04-13T19:27:12
|
2024-04-13T19:27:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9U6uLqyZFG9ZRNT2Jfho
|
Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in May 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-04-11T21:05:55
|
2024-05-31T23:59:00
|
2024-06-01T08:21:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8AGy4sYbRqWY8rX81XQm
|
Will Bitcoin dip to $58K in May 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
If the price of Bitcoin remains $58K or below on May 1st, market will resolve to YES
|
2024-04-11T21:05:08
|
2024-05-01T08:47:15
|
2024-05-01T08:47:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ik1cujzVzDFOXFTeWpun
|
Will there be a NYT article about the Lumina Probiotic (from Lantern Bioworks) in 2024?
|
The Lumina Probiotic is a new product from Lantern Bioworks that claims to reduce cavities. Its commercial success (and potential regulatory future) will be influenced by the sort of news coverage it receives.
This market resolves YES if the New York Times releases an article in 2024 that is "about" the Lumina Probiotic.
For an article to qualify as "about", there needs to be multiple paragraphs discussing the Lumina Probiotic—it doesn't need to be the only topic in the article, but it can't just be an offhand mention. The article needs to be published after question creation (I can't find any past coverage, but just in case I missed any).
If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.
|
2024-04-11T18:38:00
|
2024-04-21T11:57:42
|
2024-04-21T11:57:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rj1OVi4A55MvWCKdXMNj
|
Will OpenAI be on the top of the Chatbot Arena's LLM Leaderboard until EOY 2024?
|
OpenAI took back the lead on the leaderboard from Anthropic on 2024-04-11, will they ever lose it again this year?
Resolves NO if the first on the below list is from another organization than OpenAI.
Resolves to YES otherwise.
Resolves to N/A if leaderboard doesn't exist, at least in some similar form, at EOY 2024.
[image]
|
2024-04-11T16:06:01
|
2024-08-01T10:03:04
|
2024-08-01T10:03:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OwSPcspntKHKdalqx0wL
|
Will the German Ampel coalition break apart before the end of its term?
|
The question will resolve no if the regularly scheduled elections take place between the 27.08.2025 and the 26.10.2025.
The question will resolve yes if the elections take place outside of regular scheduling or the Ampel coalition breaks apart.
|
2024-04-11T15:05:58
|
2024-11-07T22:30:30
|
2024-11-07T22:30:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fpFTJ2pc9pW0X2IAOcsn
|
Will Bitcoin (BTCUSD) close GREEN 🟢or RED 🔴 on the day of the Halving?
|
Description: The Bitcoin Halving is rapidly approaching!
All signs point to the Halving taking place on April 19, 2024.
Now, the big question: Will the Halving be a “sell-the-news” event?
Market Details:
Market Identifier: BTCUSD (Resolves to BTCUSDT on Binance)
Resolution Date: The market will resolve to the trading session (in UTC time) during which the Halving takes place. If the Halving occurs on April 19 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for that date.
However, if the Halving occurs on April 20 UTC, the resolution will be based on the trading session for April 20.
Resolution Criteria:
Resolves 🟢YES🟢 if the closing price of BTCUSD is higher than the previous day’s closing price on the day of the Halving.
Resolves 🔴NO🔴 if the closing price of BTCUSD is lower or remains flat compared to the previous day’s closing price on the day of the Halving.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/HoustonxMTL/leading-up-to-the-bitcoin-halving-w)(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/will-bitcoin-halving-happen)
|
2024-04-11T14:33:59
|
2024-04-20T17:50:43
|
2024-04-20T17:50:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F2fy7J7Oa8GRBXeQgLrZ
|
Will Lantern Bioworks be accepted to the next cohort of YCombinator?
|
Lantern is planning to apply to YCombinator. Question resolves as "no" if they don't.
|
2024-04-11T08:37:22
|
2024-06-02T20:29:01
|
2024-06-02T20:29:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZOi3w3oTNnFhXWEJQO3s
|
Will the next U.S. President sign an Executive Order related to AI within their First 100 Days?
|
Resolves YES if the next U.S. President (2024-2028) signs an Executive Act pertaining specifically to Artificial Intelligence (AI) within their first 100 days in office.
If the inauguration takes place as scheduled on January 20, 2025, then the 100th day of the new administration would fall on April 30, 2025.
Related to markets on election outcome.
Resources:
Biden First 100 Days
Trump First 100 Days
|
2024-04-11T07:00:20
|
2025-01-23T22:19:34
|
2025-01-23T22:19:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RrwdXaihc2CDTdbUnyOq
|
Will there be a nuclear explosion on earth by June 1st 24’
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-11T02:36:13
|
2024-06-04T21:11:06
|
2024-06-04T21:11:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V95AkxtcNQBb3CzE2HcM
|
Will Trump take back the lead over Biden on ElectionBettingOdds.com with one week?
|
Will resolve based on https://electionbettingodds.com/
Resolves NO if they are even.
|
2024-04-11T02:10:45
|
2024-04-18T06:59:00
|
2024-04-18T18:37:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V6x7FFFj8TwsrOBsPQmT
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 11?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 11 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 11 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-10T23:02:22
|
2024-04-11T21:07:31
|
2024-04-11T21:07:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NCQx7hEngCghgKZ0WrBh
|
Will Iran carry out an attack which leads to the death of at least 5 people within Israel before May 1st? [Metaculus]
|
Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/22161/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves Yes if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has lead to the death of at least five individuals.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-10T19:51:33
|
2024-05-01T11:58:28
|
2024-05-01T11:58:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IlhZAoH3rPFuLMmemWPs
|
Will Trump announce a VP pick before July?
|
Must be an official announcement, not a passing comment or suggestion.
|
2024-04-10T19:50:58
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T12:57:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-32VNeAmZUp17XAkZS2Jc
|
Will the Espionage Act charges against Julian Assange be dropped by the Biden Administration in 2024?
|
https://news.sky.com/story/us-considering-dropping-julian-assange-prosecution-joe-biden-says-13112352
This question will resolve YES if the Espionage Act charges against Julian Assange are dropped under the Biden Administration in 2024.
|
2024-04-10T17:27:14
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-20T18:54:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L0Xen5aWb3CAAe15d9k0
|
At the end of 4/20 will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
|
2024-04-10T13:39:55
|
2024-04-20T20:59:00
|
2024-04-21T04:12:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8U6crQ3YLUA0XNpcxzPg
|
Will Spotify acquire an AI music generation company in the next 6 months?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-10T13:07:33
|
2024-10-10T06:43:53
|
2024-10-10T06:43:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-35UMvP806SD0I8H88fbm
|
Will Manchester City win out their remaining Premier League games?
|
This market seeks to predict whether Manchester City will have a perfect finish to their 2023-2024 Premier League campaign by winning all of their remaining league matches starting from game week 32.
This market will resolve as "Yes" if Manchester City wins each Premier League match they play from April 11, 2024, until the end of the season. The market will resolve as "No" if they draw or lose any of these matches.
The market will be resolved based on the official results reported by the Premier League after the season concludes or as soon as they lose or draw a match.
Remaining games
32 - City (H) vs. Luton - W
33 - Brighton (H) vs. City - W
34 - Nottingham Forest (H) vs. City - W
35 - Blank
36 - City (H) vs. Wolves - W
37 - Fulham (H) vs. City - W
37 - Tottenham (H) vs. City - W
38 - City (H) vs. West Ham - W
|
2024-04-10T11:38:53
|
2024-05-19T10:01:43
|
2024-05-19T10:01:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mc1Po1N9mXlxAjFBMi9W
|
[Metaculus] Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
|
Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21320/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-04-10T07:50:44
|
2024-09-23T11:15:49
|
2024-09-23T11:15:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k5nAvPPaISPPT9WoWDx9
|
Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 (Brazil)
|
[image]🏈 2024 NFL Season
Resolves YES if they win
Resolves NO if the other team (2nd team in question) wins or ties
Close date will be updated if game is rescheduled or postponed
Resolves N/A if the game or season is cancelled
São Paulo, Brazil
|
2024-04-10T07:12:31
|
2024-09-06T20:49:22
|
2024-09-06T20:49:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-idfUsMIZpZPE1T5OcLhD
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 10?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 10 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 10 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-10T00:26:01
|
2024-04-10T21:59:00
|
2024-04-10T22:52:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bX32D8QZRnIsIGQJdkuy
|
Will OpenAI reclaim the #1 position on ChatBot Arena / LMSYS in April 2024?
|
# 1 Position: Model with the highest ELO score
|
2024-04-09T22:31:26
|
2024-04-11T22:24:20
|
2024-04-11T22:24:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z9Vhc0L7hohKYRtugnYU
|
Will Joker 2 have a twist revealing Lady Gaga's character was just in Joker's head?
|
Resolves "yes" if Lady Gaga's character in Joker: Folie à Deux is revealed to be partially or wholly a figment of Arthur Fleck's imagination.
|
2024-04-09T21:49:19
|
2024-10-04T20:59:00
|
2024-10-13T09:51:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-30PBPFupPWbNrDBpDUhz
|
At the end of May will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
|
2024-04-09T21:26:38
|
2024-05-31T17:24:49
|
2024-05-31T17:24:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vaYUa2pm7376xGSw6x3R
|
Will Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight at the end of April?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
|
2024-04-09T21:26:25
|
2024-04-30T18:03:13
|
2024-04-30T18:03:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XL7hDzoSSCnhXvS3i9a5
|
Will Bitcoin go below $48K in 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-04-09T21:00:56
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:03:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FUhbwtvW9EAS4q2yEj3r
|
Will Ross Ulbricht be released from prison before January 1st, 2030?
|
Efforts are being made to obtain clemency.
https://freeross.org/
Update 2025-21-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
The market will close on January 2, 2030 at 04:59 UTC.
If documentation of Ross Ulbricht's release is found before this date, the market will resolve immediately upon such documentation.
|
2024-04-09T18:47:46
|
2025-01-22T07:10:37
|
2025-01-22T07:10:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pU4xeOHpftaMGFT17zfg
|
Will Bitcoin reach $87654.32 before the end of 2024?
|
Going by Google for BTC price
|
2024-04-09T16:47:08
|
2024-11-11T15:55:21
|
2024-11-11T15:55:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZtGjcht7EZ5qt1iY2NU0
|
Will Bitcoin hit $72.5K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-09T15:28:14
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:46:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OlABBo0yOM5rUd0hF4gB
|
Will the Denver Nuggets repeat as NBA champions in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-09T13:40:25
|
2024-05-19T19:38:28
|
2024-05-19T19:38:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RgYeg7JdFg0DkB4L9Piy
|
Will "3 Body Problem" stay in the Netflix Global Top 10 for at least 6 consecutive weeks? (Through April 28th)
|
Source: The Netflix Global Top 10: TV (English).
Context: So far, "3 Body Problem" has stayed in the top 10 for three consecutive weeks—March 18-24, March 25-31, and April 1-7. In the most recent week (April 1-7), it was the #1 show on Netflix.
Resolution: This market resolves YES if "3 Body Problem: Season 1" appears in the Netflix Top 10 for at least 6 consecutive weeks. This means it needs to stay in the top 10 for the next three weeks as well—April 8-14, April 15-21, and April 22-28.
|
2024-04-09T13:34:37
|
2024-04-30T14:22:27
|
2024-04-30T14:22:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IhqEk0sATMbG1qSob9KC
|
Will Charles Leclerc score more points than Carlos Sainz at the 2024 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Charles Leclerc outscores Carlos Sainz over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores a point, resolves based on classification order in the main race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-04-09T13:26:58
|
2024-05-05T14:58:36
|
2024-05-05T14:58:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-seak4Q0dMsjalLHOBBWD
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Miami Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on May 5, 2024.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
|
2024-04-09T13:26:41
|
2024-05-05T15:10:00
|
2024-05-05T15:10:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xAzfjO4PPYAF6VM1wSD6
|
Will X, formerly known as Twitter, have a major outage within a month?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-09T13:20:31
|
2024-05-09T14:59:00
|
2024-05-09T22:08:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NV1KuY4TBD1kctXfnljx
|
Will Elon Musk make a $1mil+ bet that "AI [will be] smarter than any one human probably around the end of [2025]"?
|
Elon Musk recently claimed on X that he expects human-level AI around the end of next year. Gary Marcus challenged him on this by offering to bet one million dollars to the contrary, and shortly after Damion Hankiejh offered to raise it to ten million: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/10-million-says-we-wont-see-human?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=888615&post_id=143426134
If Elon Takes anyone up on a bet of this scale (1 million USD or more) in connection with his recent claim, this market resolves YES. If no bet is made within 30 days this market resolves NO. (I reserve the right to wait a week or so to resolve the market if it's unclear.)
|
2024-04-09T13:11:38
|
2024-05-09T20:59:00
|
2024-05-09T21:41:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ikS2mmaXe4GxW5rYQPk2
|
Will SpaceX try to land a Booster at Boca Chica in 2024?
|
Elon Musk says that SpaceX will try to land a booster at some time in the future at the Tower at Boca Chica. He is optimistic that this will happen in 2024 with a chance of 80-90%.
The Market will resolve YES, when:
SpaceX attempts a landing at Boca Chica with the Booster
Booster lands or crashes near the launch site (less than 3km)
|
2024-04-09T11:16:31
|
2024-10-19T11:03:32
|
2024-10-19T11:03:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lQQqMvF8hmdrSrWwiHIG
|
Will there be a ceasefire for at least a month in the Israel-Hamas conflict before 1 Jan 2025?
|
Resolves to mainstream news consensus. Ceasefire must be between Israel and Hamas, continued fighting with Hezbollah or other paramilitaries/nations doesn’t count as breaking of the ceasefire. The ceasefire is broken if there is fighting again between Israel and Hamas in the form of shots fired.
|
2024-04-09T10:50:24
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T07:55:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fVW1MNNlB6YwwMsDpv54
|
Will "Monkey Man" gross >$5 million (domestic) during the weekend of April 12 - 14?
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if its weekend gross for April 12 - 14 is >$5 million.
For example, last weekend (April 5 - 7) "Monkey Man" grossed $10,119,435. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $5M would be a roughly ~50% drop from last weekend (which included Thursday previews).
|
2024-04-09T09:05:44
|
2024-04-16T13:21:30
|
2024-04-16T13:21:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GaFNHQuLoiwX25Zjxlby
|
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 2024?
|
Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos
|
2024-04-09T07:52:30
|
2024-04-29T17:59:57
|
2024-04-29T17:59:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C6QXFtE65WA4AZxh1zrY
|
Will Real Madrid beat Manchester City during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ Real Madrid vs Manchester City
📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester City has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
⚠️ Disclaimer: To maintain the sustainability of market creation, this market may be closed early if the following conditions are met: 105 minutes have passed since the start of the match, there are fewer than 20 unique bettors, and either YES or NO liquidity is below M$100.
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-04-09T06:59:16
|
2024-04-09T14:39:23
|
2024-04-09T14:39:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gk8DLryc0OVvq2uCNEii
|
Will Arsenal beat Bayern Munich during regular time on Tue, Apr 9, 2024?⚽ UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ Arsenal vs Bayern Munich
📅 Date: Tuesday, April 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Bayern Munich has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
⚠️ Disclaimer: To maintain the sustainability of market creation, this market may be closed early if the following conditions are met: 105 minutes have passed since the start of the match, there are fewer than 20 unique bettors, and either YES or NO liquidity is below M$100.
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-04-09T06:59:14
|
2024-04-09T14:39:20
|
2024-04-09T14:39:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NnD4RU8lzhsr5p3NGBVu
|
Will Scott Alexander make a 6+ digit bet related to COVID, by EOY 2024?
|
If it helps, I’m currently working out terms for a 6-digit lab leak bet of my own (no guarantee this will come to fruition, most of these fall apart in the resolution criteria stage). I feel bad for not being willing to answer every possible lab leak argument going forward, but hopefully offering lab leakers a few hundred thousand dollars if I’m wrong will be a suitable consolation prize.
For now, I’m still at 90-10 zoonosis.
https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/highlights-from-the-comments-on-the-5d7
Will this bet, or some other bet, have both parties agree to the bet and announce it publicly, by EOY 2024?
|
2024-04-09T06:56:56
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:17:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G6uua1rq01OKqV5bhHZD
|
Will "Civil War" (2024) have >=90% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?
|
"Civil War" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics’ aggregate score, not audiences) on April 19th (one week after release).
Trailer
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/aDyQxtg0V2w)Market was stolen from @Ziddletwix‘s market below, with a higher percent and a shorter time frame
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-civil-war-2024-have-82-critics)
|
2024-04-09T06:29:45
|
2024-04-19T23:59:00
|
2024-04-20T04:47:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jseAIyiNKGS73xj2XoDE
|
Will Andrej Karpathy start or cofound his own AI company before EOY 2024?
|
Andrej Karpathy is a prominent AI researcher.
From 2015 to 2017, Andrej Karpathy was a founding member of OpenAI. From 2017 to 2022, he was the Senior Director of AI at Tesla. From 2023 to early 2024, he returned to work at OpenAI.
Karpathy creates high quality guides for modern deep learning. As of 4/9, he has 430K subscribers on YouTube, and nine million cumulative views on his channel.
Currently, he is unemployed and likely working on an unknown project.
From his career timeline on his website (https://karpathy.ai/):
[image]Resolves YES if Andrej Karpathy starts or cofounds a new AI company by EOY 2024.
Resolves NO if Andrej Karpathy does not have a significant role in a new AI company by EOY 2024.
|
2024-04-09T05:59:37
|
2024-07-22T12:28:50
|
2024-07-22T12:28:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IVsf7KBrjqUzdb30Odo0
|
Will OpenAI release the weights of GPT-3? (2024)
|
Any license. @Mira must be able to access the weights. Any variant of GPT-3 counts, including original GPT-3, GPT-3.5, GPT-3.5 Turbo, or quantized versions.
|
2024-04-09T03:55:16
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T16:56:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8VLRiiyz1Pz3LsEq5Pus
|
Will there be 7 or more goals scored in the two legs of Real Madrid - Man. City combined?
|
If the match goes to penalty shootout, those will not count.
|
2024-04-09T02:32:31
|
2024-04-17T12:34:41
|
2024-04-17T12:34:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NgrEqPg3cNgcjv5GhkiY
|
Will Israel hit Iran's nuclear sites in 2024?
|
Kinetically, i.e. with a missile/bomb of some sort.
[tweet]Clarification: A nuclear site is any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil.
|
2024-04-08T22:58:46
|
2024-11-16T16:36:57
|
2024-11-16T16:36:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ng14iuvy52vasgppvsJv
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 9?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 9 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 9 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-08T20:37:29
|
2024-04-09T21:59:00
|
2024-04-10T00:21:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JJWCaoP6wEMo6ncI75LU
|
Will Ethereum hit $4350 in 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-08T17:42:32
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-02-01T22:54:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pMVoyja2pA3gZkd299Vi
|
Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross >$5 million (domestic) during the weekend of April 12 - 14?
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if its weekend gross for April 12 - 14 is >$5 million.
For example, last weekend (April 5 - 7) "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" grossed $9,003,197. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $5M would be a roughly ~45% drop from last weekend.
|
2024-04-08T15:59:09
|
2024-04-17T08:07:20
|
2024-04-17T08:07:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-71MxreWqLm4slu03yUxc
|
Will Trump come back to X (Twitter) in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-08T14:40:31
|
2024-08-12T00:54:45
|
2024-08-12T00:54:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NAZSDPrSg9j6g5EKW1vz
|
Will Bitcoin hit $74.5K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-08T08:50:12
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:47:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dP2S7M3pC16zjcTpC2uO
|
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 18th 2024?
|
Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos
|
2024-04-08T08:23:35
|
2024-04-18T20:59:00
|
2024-04-19T16:12:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UAeyo66UulJIbxOYmSTz
|
Will Stan Lee appear in Deadpool and Wolverine?
|
Stan Lee created Marvel Comics with Jack Kirby (don’t @ me, I know this is controversial) and appeared in nearly every Marvel movie past his death in 2018.
Will Stan Lee appear in Deadpool & Wolverine?
The likelihood is that this would be archival footage, as the man is no longer alive to record new footage, but this will also Resolve YES if they do some uncanny AI thing.
Other Deadpool 3 markets:
[markets]
|
2024-04-08T07:52:59
|
2024-07-25T19:32:25
|
2024-07-25T19:32:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i6rwahHsrwmgE4NZRXp3
|
Will Donald Trump announce his VP pick by the end of April?
|
Will Donald Trump announce his selection for vice president by the end of April?
YES: Donald Trump selects a running mate during the month of April
NO: It is May 1, 2024, and Trump has not yet named his VP
note 1: if Trump drops out of race, dies, or in any other way not a candidate anymore during the month of April, this will resolve NO; unless he named a running mate before dropping out, in which case this resolves YES
note 2: if Trump selects a VP, but then changes his mind and de-selects that person, this question will still resolve YES because he did name someone
note 3: if Trump goes completely insane and selects his imaginary friend, an animal, an extraterrestrial, or an inanimate object for vice president, this question will still resolve YES, because no one said the VP must be human
|
2024-04-08T07:36:52
|
2024-04-30T19:05:39
|
2024-04-30T19:05:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-js7YLvu5MCJvIcOdASxF
|
Will "Civil War" (2024) be the highest grossing A24 film domestically? (>77M, for EEAAO)
|
A24 has been enormously successful as an indie studio, but they have ambitions to enter the mainstream. "Civil War" (2024) is an early big swing, carrying the largest budget for the studio to date.
Currently, the A24 film with the highest domestic gross is the Oscar-sweeping "Everything Everywhere All At Once", with $77,169,474. This market resolves YES if "Civil War" (2024) grosses more than $77,169,474 at the domestic box office, within three months of release (i.e. July 8th).
I will use the-numbers.com as the source: https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Civil-War-(2024)#tab=box-office.
For example, the "Domestic Box Office" for EEAAO is $77,169,474. This is the equivalent number I will use.
I may end this market early if the result appears certain.
|
2024-04-08T05:23:27
|
2024-06-26T10:56:20
|
2024-06-26T10:56:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uXmhdIJxtgmjbo6zCGoT
|
Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, by June 30, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-08T04:42:29
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-02T04:54:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XMszOCV5uvzN27x9C7SN
|
📱 Will Apple have a product release event in May 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023
Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES.
|
2024-04-08T03:27:30
|
2024-05-07T08:02:20
|
2024-05-07T08:02:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-meeaupCZpKu4HgJIhsms
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 8?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 8 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 8 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-07T23:19:44
|
2024-04-08T20:38:12
|
2024-04-08T20:38:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TthLRwWLetwVuYQ5KRTI
|
Will Dwarkesh Patel interview Sam Altman by the end of 2024?
|
This could be an appearance on Dwarkesh Patel's podcast or a public interview conducted by Dwarkesh on another platform. ie: done over twitter spaces, at a tech conference, etc.
|
2024-04-07T09:18:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:20:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LFRsLo3jsVebQzzE8BqZ
|
Will Ted Cruz be Trump's running mate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-07T09:08:39
|
2024-07-15T13:29:05
|
2024-07-15T13:29:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-07uV3FB8v7H7UbqtLskq
|
[NOT short fuse] Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,300.00 before 5,100.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,300.00 or 5,100.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-04-07).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 5,100.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,300.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
|
2024-04-07T08:31:16
|
2024-04-15T14:02:46
|
2024-04-15T14:02:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hoSJIhq4SDqeTJ9pcIf6
|
Will Bitcoin hit $76543 before $65432?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $76543 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $65432 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-04-07T08:03:18
|
2024-04-13T05:36:35
|
2024-04-13T05:36:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rkBM9wiAK3syCytn9tPO
|
Will Iran strike Israel in the next week?
|
The market will resolve as yes if Iran strikes Israel by the experation date of the market. Else the market will resolve no.
A strike is defined as an attack with any sort of bomb, missile, or something else that destroys something whether it be a building or a field within a specific area.
|
2024-04-07T02:55:31
|
2024-04-13T19:48:22
|
2024-04-13T19:48:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kZXjYFXfsL7pxNgrFizV
|
Will any country admit to sending troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
|
The market will resolve as YES if by the end of 2024 any country officially admits to sending any number of troops to Ukraine to act in any capacity on the Ukrainian side. This can include personnel directly participating in combat, as well as special forces, intelligence, instructors etc. The troops do not have to be in the Ukrainian chain of command, but they need to be deployed with Ukraine's consent.
The troops have to be on active military duty, volunteers don't count. They can be deployed either by some country's military directly, or as part of some international organization like NATO.
For the market to resolve to YES, both the deployment and the official statement about it have to happen by the end of 2024. The statement has to be explicit. A vague statement of intent followed by third-party reports about the troops is not enough.
I tried to verify that so far the conditions for this questions haven't been fulfilled. If I am wrong, please point me to the relevant news in the comment, and I will resolve the question.
I do not bet on my own questions.
|
2024-04-07T02:55:05
|
2024-10-29T05:10:35
|
2024-10-29T05:10:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WSgJH0eTWIxVXsuCZEEn
|
Will the phrase "Machine Learning" be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
|
Including the moderators. Must be the specific phrase "machine learning", no other form of the phrase will count.
|
2024-04-07T02:20:05
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:39:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aTRI5miDBEIHNSdR4Foi
|
Will a planet other than Earth be mentioned by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
|
Including the moderators. Not counting the Moon.
|
2024-04-07T02:17:03
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:39:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pYoKR39TqotcAMvvcwTB
|
Will "TSMC" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
|
Including the moderators
|
2024-04-07T02:13:36
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:40:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sNSrm1QtmTvxiJipjNKe
|
Will SpaceX successfully catch a booster within the first ten Starship flights?
|
A catch here will be defined as the booster sitting on the chopsticks after the landing.
|
2024-04-06T22:51:16
|
2024-10-13T21:40:11
|
2024-10-13T21:40:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zjzk8AqroFnswvHRL0Dx
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 7?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 7 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 7 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-06T20:34:19
|
2024-04-07T21:59:00
|
2024-04-07T23:19:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5WNBE9ZOl0RXRpkoEyLz
|
Will Trump look at the eclipse without eye protection again?
|
This market will resolve yes if there is an NYT article by the market close that includes a photo of Trump looking at the sun with no eye protection taken during the 2024 eclipse
Otherwise resolves No
|
2024-04-06T19:32:42
|
2024-04-14T06:59:00
|
2024-04-17T05:50:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ReT9HBnmbIDrvxkyy7Gu
|
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's seventh 'orbital' test flight?
|
SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the seventh IFT.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site, when it has been announced that a catch is part of the flight programme. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-36869f2cbfb8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-6baebb2ebbc1)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-89ffd8a6b863)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-ad6d782dd262)
|
2024-04-06T17:55:42
|
2025-01-16T15:57:09
|
2025-01-16T15:57:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wOIy6YFJtGpjPAX8G1pY
|
If someone solves Taelin's $10,000 LLM symbol manipulation challenge within a month, will they receive the money?
|
https://twitter.com/VictorTaelin/status/1776677635491344744
See @IsaacKing's market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/will-taelins-10000-llm-symbol-manip)The 1 month deadline refers to the date of the solution being posted publicly, not the date that Taelin confirms it or pays out. If Taelin tries to back out of the offer, that doesn't affect this market; it will still resolve YES if the solution is valid as per Taelin's stated rules.
If that market resolves YES, will the first team to have solved the challenge receive the full 10,000$?
EDITED FROM "If that market resolves YES, will the first person to have solved the challenge receive the full 10,000$?" to make it clearer / more precise
|
2024-04-06T14:39:22
|
2024-04-15T15:28:50
|
2024-04-16T00:59:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M8FHBp63MkbKPVs0Vcjq
|
Will Russia control Chasiv Yar on september 1st 2024
|
Will Russia control the small city Chasiv Yar west of Bakhmut autumn 2024?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chasiv_Yar
Resolves yes if Chasiv Yar is marked as under russian control by deepstate map on september 1st 2024, or if deepstate map is unavailable, credible media sources report Chasiv Yar as being under Russian control.
https://deepstatemap.live/en"#12/48.5870/37.8337
Note that the question pertains to september 1st 2024 specifically. If Chasiv Yar is captured by Russia and then recaptured by Ukraine by september 1st 2024, it resolves no.
|
2024-04-06T05:48:01
|
2024-09-01T14:59:00
|
2024-09-02T03:40:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PTLa60sHN0fISadXCxx9
|
Will "Inside Out 2" receive a higher CinemaScore than "Despicable Me 4"?
|
This market resolves YES if "Inside Out 2" (2024) receives a strictly higher CinemaScore than "Despicable Me 4" (2024).
Other details:
For reference, "Inside Out" (2015) received an A.
This is strictly higher than the A- for "Despicable Me 3" (2017).
It is not strictly higher than the A for "Minions: The Rise of Gru" (2022).
You can search the CinemaScore website for more examples.
CinemaScore is a firm that measures the audience reception of new releases by polling opening night audiences using a letter grade (A+/A/etc i.e. the "CinemaScore").
|
2024-04-06T05:35:48
|
2024-07-04T09:36:31
|
2024-07-04T09:36:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S2walXRsVLY7FGCXElol
|
Will the Bun JavaScript runtime surpass Node in GitHub stars during 2024?
|
Bun is being developed as an alternative to node that is more modern, easier to work with, and waaaay faster. It has some cool features like supporting typescript and jsx out of the box. It looks like an interesting project, but will it have more GitHub stars than node in 2024?
GitHub: https://github.com/Oven-sh/bun
More Info: https://bun.sh/docs
[image]
|
2024-04-06T05:06:15
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:10:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-72gbNekyaCeyHDsk5NpG
|
Will Jon Tester outperform the Democratic presidential nominee by double digits?
|
in percentage margin vs the Republican
|
2024-04-06T04:49:18
|
2024-11-11T14:33:29
|
2024-11-11T14:33:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uZVQ73Tfe5Sl48V7XMeJ
|
Will Iran engage in significant attack on Israel to avenge death of Rev Guard General? (Expires 6pm EDT April 15, 2024)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-06T04:23:09
|
2024-04-13T15:56:53
|
2024-04-13T15:56:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gHDCnNLnvr3Ywt3Fo7Vh
|
Will Ben Shapiro and Candace Owens debate in 2024?
|
voice debate. Doesn't have to be released in 2024, just happen
|
2024-04-06T01:20:10
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T12:05:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OfWjGVZ4mBtISez02lme
|
NCAA Women’s National Championship Game: Will IOWA beat SOUTH CAROLINA?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-05T20:37:52
|
2024-04-07T15:18:44
|
2024-04-07T15:18:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9nnzx5izg0jsfP7aDmBG
|
Will Taylor Swift endorse a candidate other than Joe Biden for the 2024 presidential election?
|
Resolves NO if Swift does not endorse a candidate.
Resolves NO if Swift endorses Joe Biden.
The endorsement, if any, must be on or before election day.
|
2024-04-05T15:42:47
|
2024-09-11T04:54:22
|
2024-09-11T04:54:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NYlbmLTGGObI2zGExHHb
|
[Forecast] Will Bitcoin close higher April 10th than April 5th?
|
Resolves to: Coingecko
Mods may resolve
This market closes at 8pm on April 9
EDT Timezone
|
2024-04-05T15:11:00
|
2024-04-09T17:00:00
|
2024-04-11T01:03:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5V2Bl9Sh7VLMQHo3oz0y
|
[Musk fact check] Will the Tesla Robotaxi be unveiled on August 8th 2024?
|
This question resolves as YES if there is an event executed on August 8th (local time or PST if it is online), whether it be a livestream, in-person event, or any other format (no special requirements). Otherwise, it resolves as NO.
The bait:
[tweet]
|
2024-04-05T14:15:58
|
2024-08-08T14:59:00
|
2024-08-09T00:36:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VtUt4gBlBfgGPIzYU6BK
|
Will the 118th congress pass a ban on congressional stock trading?
|
A ban on congressional stock seems to have bipartisan support on congress, yet congresspeople can still trade individual stocks. Congresspeople have access to a huge amount of classified information, and there’s a history of congresspeople using this information to gain a competitive advantage in the market. So, why hasn’t congress banned it?
Resolves YES if both the Senate and House pass a bill preventing members of congress from trading individual stocks.
|
2024-04-05T12:35:06
|
2025-01-03T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T21:02:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5XPX94l5MEPEdlRYoYvn
|
Will an SEC school win the 2024-25 CFP National Championship?
|
SEC refers to the Southeastern Conference, CFP is the Division I FBS College Football Playoff.
The teams include Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, and Vanderbilt.
|
2024-04-05T12:26:42
|
2025-01-12T07:37:57
|
2025-01-12T07:37:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-44SGVnKZ2KonvkBFa20u
|
If convicted, will Donald Trump receive a custodial sentence in the NY criminal case?
|
The state of New York brought a felony indictment against Donald Trump for falsifying business records. The case is scheduled to go to trial in April.
This market resolves YES if Trump receives any kind of custodial sentence, regardless of the length of that sentence or whether he actually serves it. Any custodial sentence related to this trial will count, including if he is given a custodial penalty for contempt of court before a verdict is rendered.
If the jury convicts but the sentence is non-custodial, the market resolves NO.
If Trump is acquitted or the case otherwise resolves without a conviction, the market resolves N/A.
NOTE: I will count home detention as a "custodial" sentence, if the terms confine him to his home. I will not count a sentence or other order that merely restricts his travel generally.
I may have to use my discretion to resolve this market and will not bet in it.
|
2024-04-05T11:30:22
|
2025-01-10T09:19:39
|
2025-01-10T09:19:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KZOsRNLK1WopQSIUHGkB
|
GPT-4.5 released this quarter?
|
Resolves the same way as https://kalshi.com/markets/gpt4p5/gpt45-released
If GPT-4.5 has been released by Jun 30, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Payout Criterion: The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that OpenAI has released a large language model named GPT-4.5, or which is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-3.5 was a successor to GPT-3, by . A large language model named GPT-5 would not fulfill the Payout Criterion and would resolve the market to No. Release to only paid users would be encompassed by the Payout Criterion. A beta or test version would also be encompassed by the Payout Criterion.
|
2024-04-05T09:15:51
|
2024-05-15T16:11:08
|
2024-05-15T17:31:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wdkYmwhrUcBIwk4wXBX1
|
Will we have a free chatbot that can reliably solve "what weight more" questions by end of 2024?
|
When I ask Gemini or ChatGPT free version:
"What weight more: six kg of feather or one kg of steel?"
They say the steel weights more. Will we have a free general-purpose chatbot that can answer this correctly by EOY 2024?
Will try 10 variations on Gemini, ChatGPT and any chatbot suggested in comment. Will resolve to YES if any of them answers all 10 correctly.
|
2024-04-05T03:05:39
|
2024-05-22T07:37:23
|
2024-05-22T07:37:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AHXKcMviDB4bcmkpsT9A
|
Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)
|
Opera issued a press release titled "Opera becomes the first major browser with built-in access to local AI models."
Will any other major browsers follow suit*?
[image]* Access in beta or dev mode would suffice to resolve this market as yes
Update 2024-15-12 (PST): Canary (experimental) versions of browsers do not count - only beta or dev versions will qualify for resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-04-05T00:48:36
|
2024-12-17T13:59:25
|
2024-12-17T13:59:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CeRzn9STktf6AuURGgiK
|
Will Israel open another border crossing for aid into Gaza?
|
Context: The White House says Netanyahu agreed to open another border crossing for aid after pressure from Biden.
The Israeli government must confirm the additional crossing is open for aid for this to Resolve YES, and at least one truck must pass through the crossing.
This has to happen by the end of April, to be anything close to relevant to Biden’s statements.
|
2024-04-04T17:37:20
|
2024-04-12T07:25:24
|
2024-04-12T07:25:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uQq3o8K9M9tiCUqgALMg
|
Will another aid worker die by air strike in Gaza in 2024?
|
Context: Israel plans to adjust Gaza war tactics after killing of aid workers
Will they fail to adjust? Will another aid worker die in Gaza by air strike in 2024?
|
2024-04-04T17:30:05
|
2024-07-16T09:59:35
|
2024-07-16T09:59:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aEutpvSQ3BpveM0nXcic
|
IDF killed an Iranian general in Revolution Guard recently. Will Iran respond by attacking Israel within 48 hours?
|
Expires on Saturday April 6, 2024 at 6pm EDT (NYC time). Response will be according to news reports in NYTimes and WSJ.
|
2024-04-04T13:12:55
|
2024-04-06T16:52:59
|
2024-04-06T16:52:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rtz346aNIWJxVExmnuJD
|
Will Iran launch an air, missile, or drone strike on any part of Israel or Palestine before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-04T12:45:09
|
2024-04-13T14:31:52
|
2024-04-13T14:31:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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