id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-fwRqLagtRzhiIInMo4ix | Will DJT stock close at or under $15 anytime before the end of the year 2024? | [image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason. | 2024-04-04T12:43:29 | 2024-09-20T08:08:36 | 2024-09-20T08:08:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hnf861WgWhIMP1ChoTTh | Will any perpetrators of the $30 million Easter Sunday cash heist be caught within the next six months? (by October 4th) | Here's the relevant context, from the LA Times:
In one of the largest cash heists in Los Angeles history, thieves made off with as much as $30 million in an Easter Sunday burglary at a San Fernando Valley money storage facility, an L.A. police official revealed Wednesday...
The burglary occurred Sunday night at a fac... | 2024-04-04T10:14:35 | 2024-10-05T15:14:41 | 2024-10-05T16:49:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kvq3Ax6EQ4nbU0yEtXJ6 | Will RFK Jr participate in an official presidential debate? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-04T09:28:06 | 2024-08-27T08:12:29 | 2024-08-27T08:12:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LmyZULtEYrhgjBGVTZsR | If Trump wins, will he tweet within a week after the election on X? | If Donald Trump is not the elected president, this market will resolve as N/A.
Only confirmed accounts, specifically @realDonaldTrump, are eligible. Spam or obviously fake tweets not from him or his team will not be considered.
Only original posts or reposts with added text will count. Replies and simple reposts will... | 2024-04-04T06:30:56 | 2024-11-13T11:00:00 | 2024-11-13T11:33:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-arwsB3f3zoFVwatyBc6K | Will US March 2024 monthly core CPI rise less or equal to 0.3%? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-04T05:23:38 | 2024-04-11T08:59:00 | 2024-04-11T19:00:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OjfCnBmSdZOopZbi9y27 | Will Harry Kane score more than four goals at EURO 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-04T01:27:42 | 2024-07-14T13:51:05 | 2024-07-14T13:51:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Ey42pIIyHyktp9KCsPK | [Polymarket] Ukraine aid package in April? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-aid-package-in-april/ukraine-aid-package-in-april?tid=1712217574593). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to "Ye... | 2024-04-04T01:00:05 | 2024-04-27T19:25:08 | 2024-04-27T19:25:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-a2XNzs6aLUY1qah9toPN | Will $BTC drop down to $50000 by 06/06/2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-03T22:20:02 | 2024-06-05T11:14:00 | 2024-06-12T17:02:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bcZQ0YvNq3IdW0xepVEY | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 3rd? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-03T16:07:34 | 2024-05-03T20:59:00 | 2024-05-03T21:18:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5RYvcPTm4WLCJxeEGGi9 | Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024? | This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2024-01-01 and 2024-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically... | 2024-04-03T13:43:17 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:39:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6nQf1yMPKG809K6Fo9v9 | Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" gross >$6.5 million (domestic) during its 5th weekend (April 5-7)? | Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if the weekend gross for April 5 - 7 is >$6,500,000.
For example, last weekend (March 29 - 31) "Kung Fu Panda 4" grossed $10,347,210. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $6.5M would be a roughly ~37% drop from ... | 2024-04-03T13:20:48 | 2024-04-10T13:04:06 | 2024-04-10T13:04:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RJJ2c7Eb2RXe1bXBbwy3 | Will Poland’s team score more than two goals at EURO 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-03T12:38:31 | 2024-06-25T10:38:47 | 2024-06-25T10:38:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ai82JUfpJWKi64SsW8vA | Will Nebraska change its electoral vote allocation to "winner take all" for the 2024 Presidential election? | Currently, Nebraska has an unusual system where it splits its electoral votes by congressional district. Nebraska Republicans are considering changing that, so that all the state's electoral votes go to the winner of the state.
Will that change become law in time to be active for the 2024 election?
More info: https... | 2024-04-03T11:27:18 | 2024-11-05T07:45:26 | 2024-11-05T07:45:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gwTjk3vGB9EM5awpxXFY | Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July? | This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of July. | 2024-04-03T08:57:06 | 2024-07-31T21:59:00 | 2024-08-04T19:11:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nJb87ZQh1361GKxHjens | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000 in April 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-03T08:18:21 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T23:19:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5tNINiubLYyAJ2NmMfQ2 | Will J.K. Rowling be arrested in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if J. K. Rowling is arrested, for any reason, before 2025. | 2024-04-03T08:13:28 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:57:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P1yvadebkdGKWRBHzM2b | Will the UK ban or restrict arms sales to Israel in 2024? | Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, some top Conservative MPs have called for the UK to stop arming Israel:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/britain-should-stop-arming-israel-lord-ricketts-former-national-security-adviser
This is significant since t... | 2024-04-03T05:26:57 | 2024-09-02T12:21:35 | 2024-09-02T12:21:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Iv6XnqIAup5VdMRImWLr | Will the Taiwan earthquake halt chip production at a TSMC facility for a month or more? | Note that I don't know how TSMC factories work, so resolution will be best effort based on publicly available information. | 2024-04-02T21:31:09 | 2024-04-11T06:27:46 | 2024-04-11T06:27:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vYKEUDgwgUogy5aI3DY2 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 3? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-04-02T20:51:35 | 2024-04-03T21:11:47 | 2024-04-03T21:11:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5uonBgDfVNx9Prp5334n | Will Nebraska use winner-take-all for the 2024 presidential election? | See story
Legislature bill
YES if all 5 of Nebraska’s electors for president are awarded on a statewide vote basis instead of the existing hybrid system in 2024. | 2024-04-02T19:47:19 | 2024-11-03T20:03:47 | 2024-11-03T20:03:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-staJJ5tuwc8Ah63qAXmG | Will Bitcoin drop below $60000 before the end of April 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
start counting from market creation date | 2024-04-02T16:57:42 | 2024-04-18T06:12:09 | 2024-04-18T06:12:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EdI1jkAgWA9yGqavEVWH | Will Bitcoin hit $69.5K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-02T15:46:28 | 2024-04-07T13:17:45 | 2024-04-07T13:17:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hlh1XeVydaw0pBYvFgvS | Will Bitcoin hit $71K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-02T15:42:38 | 2024-04-08T03:42:31 | 2024-04-08T03:42:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1PBheAOUd4QU5TSOmWxh | Will Bitcoin hit $73.5K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-04-02T15:41:54 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:48:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CSJbratv0an1qrrKutp4 | Will Apple mention "Google" or "Gemini" at WWDC 2024 (if an AI partnership is announced between Apple and Google)? | Rumours about the upcoming WWDC Apple Event suggest that Apple may announce an AI partnership with Google to implement their use of their proprietary model "Gemini".
Apple following historic events, traditionally hates announcing other companies contributions to their technologies unless absolutely neccecity. Therefo... | 2024-04-02T14:15:09 | 2024-06-10T19:13:08 | 2024-06-10T19:13:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iV0jC6Xj4M9ktNgDtmqL | Will Iowa beat UCONN in the women's basketball tournament? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-02T11:42:10 | 2024-04-05T20:36:24 | 2024-04-05T20:36:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L8KjVh9noBBJCT0CLCwO | Will Joe Biden debate Donald Trump before the end of July 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-02T11:27:28 | 2024-06-27T20:19:47 | 2024-06-27T20:19:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eYjPyz3U0grWFFmBoh4E | Will a model from Keen Technologies by John Carmack be in the top 10 on the LMSYS leaderboards by the end of 2024? | I still think Carmack's solo adventure in AGI is the most neglected potentially interesting venture in the space, at least by Manifold.
[tweet]I sit here at my computer all the time, thinking up concepts, documenting them, making theories, testing them. That’s the work right now, as nobody really knows the full path a... | 2024-04-02T10:09:42 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T11:05:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-whWeeo6ZJWE7tqYgTT7B | Will Bitcoin be above $64000 at the end of April 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-02T08:02:22 | 2024-04-30T22:03:27 | 2024-04-30T22:03:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j7oeeHhIAREmOxDxPsBY | Will RFK Jr. be elected President of the United States in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-02T07:20:23 | 2024-11-06T17:14:08 | 2024-11-06T17:14:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rQDfarhcbLxfRLGNSyRY | Will Jannick Sinner be number 1 on the ATP ranking at the end of the Roland Garros? | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_rankings | 2024-04-02T06:31:15 | 2024-06-10T14:59:00 | 2024-06-11T13:32:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iCzjmsNQ4RsqpPpYBnqU | ⚽ Will Chelsea beat Manchester United during regular time on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:15
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus... | 2024-04-02T05:17:04 | 2024-04-04T15:15:00 | 2024-04-07T15:52:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JIUw5coRGH3LUejvcC9p | ⚽ Will Liverpool beat Sheffield Utd during regular time on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Liverpool vs Sheffield Utd
📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus... | 2024-04-02T05:17:02 | 2024-04-04T14:30:00 | 2024-04-05T18:23:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iBg9BcqSaYOSNWCK767b | Bitcoin above $70,000 on April 5? | Resolves identical to the polymarket question: https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70000-on-april-5
Here is its resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 05 Apr '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 70,000.01 or higher. Otherw... | 2024-04-01T23:09:49 | 2024-04-07T09:51:05 | 2024-04-07T09:51:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f7bOO5nEJxGrbfKBwV4K | Will RFK Jr. be on the ballot for president in the state of New York? | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as an independent candidate for president of the United States. He is currently collecting signatures in order to be on the ballot in all 50 states. He has already qualified to be on the ballot in some states, such as Utah, Hawaii, and North Carolina. Many states require only a few h... | 2024-04-01T17:46:55 | 2024-05-30T04:25:11 | 2024-05-30T04:25:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YqlD5Wdhh9Z9wVIqV87i | Will Rashee Rice play in at least 9 games this season? | Regular season games for this upcoming season | 2024-04-01T13:01:51 | 2024-11-29T12:08:18 | 2024-11-29T12:08:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pFmySSqYXYEd7CW0VRow | Will any Republican Primary National poll in April 2024 show <75% support for Trump? | Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ | 2024-04-01T11:03:00 | 2024-04-26T13:27:56 | 2024-04-26T13:27:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NMHI71cQxgouvjyzlUgN | Blackpool south by-election - Will Reform UK get above 15%? | With Scott Benton's resignation, a by-election is scheduled for the Blackpool South seat on 2nd May:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Blackpool_South_by-election
Blackpool South was a Labour held seat for a couple of decades, but was part of the "Red Wall" wave of Parliamentary seats which went to the Tories in the... | 2024-04-01T08:41:32 | 2024-05-02T21:28:31 | 2024-05-02T21:28:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bshRWjiYnvgoK8d8AKbF | Will bitcoin hit $77k before May 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-01T08:40:51 | 2024-04-30T22:03:55 | 2024-04-30T22:03:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-spqgHcaL9KWuZgDqkS9i | Will the Nasdaq 100 index (NASDAQ:NDX) close positive for the month of April 2024? | Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the NDX is greater than the opening price. (18280.82)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
Index: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AwEbTtxK/?symbol=NDX | 2024-04-01T07:04:37 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T15:48:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iYj9RjR71fStauyxuT5B | Will "Challengers" (2024) have >86% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | "Challengers" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 10th (two weeks after release).
Details:
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no deci... | 2024-04-01T06:42:24 | 2024-05-10T08:14:08 | 2024-05-10T08:14:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7FhDZEyrG2VJo0ujF2qB | Will Bitcoin hit 80k before the Republican National Convention | Data taken from https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin | 2024-04-01T06:39:38 | 2024-07-16T20:59:00 | 2024-07-19T13:59:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mQie5CNcxhcfO71fIhL3 | Israel:Hamas ceasefire in April? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸 | This is my 3rd time making this market. For the love of whichever God you believe in, please let this one finally be a YES.
At any point in the month of April will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cess... | 2024-04-01T06:31:40 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-30T21:09:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SRCZueFKREx3XPKiQ6B8 | Will Jimmy Carter make it through Memorial Day? | Mon, May 27, 2024 in us et | 2024-04-01T06:23:05 | 2024-05-28T03:32:04 | 2024-05-28T03:32:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WtEloJKdx5zhqdlZHdtq | Will bitcoin hit a new ATH before the end of the April 2024? | [image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-04-01T06:07:12 | 2024-04-30T19:59:00 | 2024-05-02T17:04:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XqOSIJljdKzNxZETPtwP | Will we see Biden playing golf against Trump before the end of 2024? | This is a vibebased market.
It doesn't have to be a serious match. Some putting on a carpet, for example, as part of a presidential debate, would resolve this market as well. After market creation. It doesn't have to be televised.
The bait:
[tweet] | 2024-04-01T05:39:34 | 2025-01-01T04:42:48 | 2025-01-01T04:42:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7esMxJpb2W5vVqoNLYXh | Will the US election happen before the UK elections | Done by the last date someone can vote | 2024-04-01T04:46:08 | 2024-07-04T17:52:48 | 2024-07-04T17:52:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TBPauoexmiSeIWVNSvfq | Will Ethereum token - Ether cross $5000 by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-04-01T03:57:43 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-03T13:11:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N8Hbui25z25YDPNHTRHh | Will Bitcoin hit $85K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-04-01T00:07:54 | 2024-04-30T21:36:00 | 2024-05-01T09:40:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YujYoefMqD7hSLboYyVO | Will Bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of May 2024? | going by multiple websites for prices at end of market close (eastern time) | 2024-03-31T22:07:52 | 2024-05-31T20:59:00 | 2024-05-31T21:17:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cA4COHRtcAYJcjHQVGh4 | Will Bitcoin hit $72.5K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-03-31T21:24:40 | 2024-04-08T08:48:10 | 2024-04-08T08:48:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MHrvA0Xt6oqdhCc0zWoM | Will Bitcoin hit $74K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-03-31T21:24:30 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:48:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oQdBGRpPdC3hsKcCoW8z | Will Bitcoin hit $73K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-03-31T21:24:16 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-04-30T22:48:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bOCEdtN07f80IH8orH4a | Will Bitcoin hit $72K in April 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-03-31T21:23:20 | 2024-04-08T08:47:59 | 2024-04-08T08:47:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pAP0bjsER2c5a3jly2Ti | Will Jimmy Carter survive till the end of April 2024 | Resolves Yes if Jimmy Carter is alive at 11:59 EST on April 30, 2024
Resolves No otherwise.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
... | 2024-03-31T21:12:09 | 2024-04-30T21:59:00 | 2024-05-02T21:17:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YFhTXDZkPEkI1AKJPnR3 | Will Jimmy Carter Survive the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30) | Resolves Yes if Jimmy survives the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30); Resolves No otherwise
| 2024-03-31T21:10:04 | 2024-06-30T21:59:00 | 2024-07-02T22:51:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LzXQc4fdqguh0UN7MqsX | Will any Democratic Primary National poll in April 2024 show >80% support for Biden? | Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/ | 2024-03-31T19:26:22 | 2024-05-02T20:59:00 | 2024-05-03T06:43:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FyaxzCiSEVRSS2yEiwin | Will France send troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024? | Troops may be sent in any capacity whether to fight or repair equipment to fulfill the contract. | 2024-03-31T16:24:45 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-12-31T22:08:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1YJ4AZHZrp9LzgzuswNI | Will the death toll in Gaza be over 35,000 by the end of April | This is resolve source https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker | 2024-03-31T12:32:05 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T03:37:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M7JCBIUXhxwJAfVAU4QG | ⚽ Will Manchester City beat Aston Villa during regular time on Wed, Apr 3, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Manchester City vs Aston Villa
📅 Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:15
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester City has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regula... | 2024-03-31T10:13:10 | 2024-04-03T15:15:00 | 2024-04-03T16:01:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Uag3TvrJvaUXtLLaZ1B | Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before the end of April 2024? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD | 2024-03-31T07:01:00 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-02T07:40:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0NKpngYGD37VPkBNYs3q | Will Bitcoin close above $60000 at the end of Apr 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history | 2024-03-31T06:59:42 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-02T07:40:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1pB6XzV79LyNJ6cIFaeF | Will Bitcoin close above $70000 at the end of Apr 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history | 2024-03-31T06:59:34 | 2024-05-01T15:18:53 | 2024-05-01T15:18:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1htngAegp2Ei6yvcWeFo | Will Joe Biden live to see Trump convicted of a crime? | See: @/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t
See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ
See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th | 2024-03-30T22:42:42 | 2024-05-30T14:13:06 | 2024-05-30T14:13:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fe9hBTOrDHLeGBRoLRSW | Will Bitcoin be above $70K at the end of April? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-30T21:03:39 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-30T21:30:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ed1EZque0dMQjqoxeO0h | Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-30T13:16:21 | 2024-08-12T07:11:09 | 2024-08-12T07:11:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zcy2rPRvhnhJxXI7bhY9 | Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2024? | Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline. | 2024-03-30T13:15:09 | 2024-08-01T03:38:49 | 2024-08-01T03:38:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3BLxMb0vMcAPdSYUDUS2 | Will Bitcoin close the year above $65,000? | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-30T13:13:47 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-02T21:51:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4QcmciT1j5kDuBQKKi4G | Will Bitcoin close the year above $55,000? | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-30T13:13:38 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-01T03:39:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mG5qUU1iEVcPmv7zKYDF | Will Bitcoin close the year above $45,000? | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-30T13:13:29 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-01T18:46:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ihoId1SpCjlD9pgRpvOb | Will Bitcoin close the year above $25,000? | https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-30T13:13:21 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-02T21:51:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BmK6wCA9ol7sjaqB9ZGt | In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"? | If OpenAI and/or Microsoft officially confirm their plans to build something broadly similar to the rumored "Stargate" project by the end of 2024, this market resolves YES.
Examples of cases which would count for a YES resolution:
Any major AI data center/supercomputer project officially named "Stargate", or confirm... | 2024-03-30T10:36:50 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:35:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8SOt8NhRWWKbkanwg8XV | Will Donald Trump get convicted of a felony before he picks his VP | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-30T10:32:54 | 2024-06-14T12:24:40 | 2024-06-14T12:24:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-785XgA5NZ5OVZP6qtS6P | Will Israel control Rafah by the end of May? | This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of May. | 2024-03-30T08:46:35 | 2024-05-31T21:59:00 | 2024-06-01T11:43:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0TkhaTUV86cXknHeoJ0E | [Polymarket] Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-april-30/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-april-30?tid=1711793059632). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
... | 2024-03-30T03:06:02 | 2024-04-30T17:25:35 | 2024-04-30T17:25:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VsfUBvN2bjrNH00vaDPH | Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies | if Sora is released to anyone willing to pay enough (not outrageously expensive 1000 a month or 100 dollars a video) then will resolve | 2024-03-29T15:56:23 | 2024-12-10T08:41:02 | 2024-12-10T08:41:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-h6U2IrLpoSOOarhk1aYz | Will Bitcoin hit a new all time high before 4/20 ends | All time high counts for any bitcoin bought over the previous all time high
Currently it is 73,750. | 2024-03-29T08:20:10 | 2024-04-20T20:59:00 | 2024-04-21T04:17:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oQT4gfzQ92V5YBLq3iUn | Will Evan Gershkovich be freed from prison in Russia before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-29T06:31:57 | 2024-08-02T09:55:52 | 2024-08-02T09:55:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv | Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating? | Musk says the goal of the next Starship mission is to get past the point of maximum re-entry heating "with all systems functioning". This market considers the somewhat lower bar of "not exploding".
[tweet]Resolves YES if in the fourth Starship–SuperHeavy test flight, SpaceX confirms that Starship didn't experience a ... | 2024-03-29T04:26:57 | 2024-06-06T05:50:00 | 2024-06-06T06:57:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-exBzGmatm4RmNyUm44YU | Will Grok 2 'exceed current [March 28 2024] AI on all metrics'? | On March 29, Elon Musk tweeted this (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1773655245769330757 ):
"Should be available on 𝕏 next week. Grok 2 should exceed current AI on all metrics. In training now."
Is that so? Let's find out.
Note that for this purpose it counts as 'Grok 2' even if it is renamed - the only way a n... | 2024-03-29T04:21:05 | 2024-12-24T20:59:00 | 2024-12-25T03:15:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oeqMtblOW6ZEB5aYMRPu | Will Elon Musk OR Mark Zuckerberg mentions "The fight" again in 2024? | This question resolves true if either Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg mentions the fight again before the end of 2024.
Please send tweet, Instagram, screenshots, or anything else that proves this to be true. I'll resolve when the proof is submitted in the comments.
Timestamp must be after this question was created 30 Ma... | 2024-03-29T02:40:53 | 2024-05-16T05:24:05 | 2024-05-16T05:24:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-segPnphGzPUXvUKct1bT | Will a new Animal Crossing main series title be announced before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-28T23:05:49 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8QRPxlht3H1LmOtgxRFf | Will Trump pardon the insurrectionists? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-28T19:00:28 | 2025-01-23T01:14:06 | 2025-01-23T01:14:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y3dFehmhA0PCbZEEsDDs | Will the S&P 500 be above 5200 at the end of Apr 2024? | Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-03-28T15:21:01 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T17:30:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s5KBQH2f1RhPuvxtdEvm | Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2024 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)? | This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor project.
For the purposes of this question, "a major spike in protests" means 1,000 or more demonstrations (protests or riots) in a single week in 2024, according to ACLED data... | 2024-03-28T11:05:16 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:49:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TMT2REc2UH6frRPDRrwv | Will Daniel Ricciardo finish ahead of Oliver Bearman in the 2024 WDC? | If they are tied in points the question resolves to "No" | 2024-03-28T09:19:21 | 2024-12-08T07:18:25 | 2024-12-08T07:18:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4f3kG5TpjOBvkSaa5B3V | 🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $12,500/metric ton in 2024? | IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $12,500 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in ... | 2024-03-28T08:02:46 | 2025-01-28T10:23:11 | 2025-01-28T10:23:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Axba729loya4wrRwJStB | If Trump wins, will $DJT (Truth Social) be above $40.00 at EOY 2024? | If Donald Trump is not the elected president, this market will resolve as N/A.
This market will resolve as YES if the stock price of TRUMP MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY GROUP CORP is >$40.00.
If the stock price is <=$40.00, this market will resolve as NO.
This market will be adjusted for stock splits, but NOT for dividends.
T... | 2024-03-28T06:50:48 | 2024-12-31T11:00:00 | 2024-12-31T16:09:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mKtB9yTzbSA3HvZxCIiY | Will Joe Biden's approval rating be higher than 45% on election day? | per 538's average. 45.0% resolves no, 45.1 resolves yes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/ | 2024-03-28T02:18:00 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:40:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DRYzSz27nrULDMSnjDeI | Will a Dutch politician hit another Dutch politician before Christmas? | Yesterday the party leader of the Forum voor Democratie said he would hit another politician if they kept pestering him about a topic, this has apparently happened before.
Will any national politicians (1ste Kamer, 2de Kamer or mayor of one of the 10 biggest cities) get involved in a fist fight with a different nation... | 2024-03-28T01:02:13 | 2024-12-28T14:59:00 | 2024-12-29T00:41:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pe73lESCo206lqxTDRWa | Will OpenAI release something on April 2? | Recently, OpenAI sent an email about migrating from an end of the month billing model, to a pre-purchased credits model.
In the email, they mentioned that on exactly April 2nd, they will gift 25$ worth of credits, for every user that purchases 25$ or more.
The migration has already happened so April 2 is an arbitrar... | 2024-03-27T23:18:59 | 2024-04-02T22:17:07 | 2024-04-02T22:17:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wMKCS88bnHWQ1MnhA2iq | Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2024 (according to gallop)? | Based on this question:
[image]In March 2024 gallop reported israel having a net favoutabutilty of 51% - 27% = 24%.
If this has increased in March 2025 numbers I will resolve yes. If it decreases or stays the same I will resolve no.
You can find out more about the polling practices here:
https://news.gallup.com/pol... | 2024-03-27T22:00:50 | 2025-03-07T04:10:05 | 2025-03-07T04:10:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-08E3UClFZZzoaaIAhkSJ | Will there be French boots on the ground in Ukraine by the end of 2024 | (https://www.youtube.com/embed/bsU6gONt8Z8?si=pD-m7rEqp0LZ39hi) | 2024-03-27T18:28:34 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-02-19T01:07:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V5K63WVyR0U4bZyVT5Lm | Will another TV network pick up Ronna McDaniel this month? | Context: NBC dropping former RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel as a contributor
On March 26th, NBC dropped Ronna Romney McDaniel as a contributor from their network. Will any other TV network pick up the former RNC chair in the next month (before April 26th)?
This doesn’t necessarily need to be a mainstream TV network, I will... | 2024-03-27T17:21:27 | 2024-04-26T20:59:00 | 2024-04-26T21:06:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ipChlgNwljQxztkFhcU | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Super Bowl LIX? | He’s presumably a Falcon’s fan. Will Ol’ Jim get to see next year’s Super Bowl? | 2024-03-27T17:08:47 | 2024-12-29T14:00:11 | 2024-12-29T14:00:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tPdjseGBw868qBobF6Cx | Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024? | If debate doesn't happen, resolves No. Any variation of "GPT" counts, GPT-4, ChatGPT, etc. Including moderators. | 2024-03-27T17:04:13 | 2024-10-31T20:59:00 | 2024-11-04T10:49:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b5DMxuF14YYRQwwx8DKm | Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Bitcoin Halving? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-27T14:50:54 | 2024-04-19T18:18:07 | 2024-04-19T18:18:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WrJNShaZhXrx1Emyh7VP | Will Trump live to see Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, or Hillary Clinton found guilty of a crime? | If Trump dies before any of the three are found guilty of a crime this resolves NO | 2024-03-27T13:38:05 | 2024-06-11T08:20:20 | 2024-06-11T08:20:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fbB3WfSuBKOEdzAOuKdq | Will Suno.ai be sued by the RIAA before 2026? | This market resolves YES if the RIAA files suit against Suno.ai before January 1, 2026. | 2024-03-27T11:48:36 | 2024-07-01T13:01:50 | 2024-07-01T13:01:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9puOB2Nvl5ZIYDvJATO2 | Will Trump's VP be a billionaire? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-27T11:23:11 | 2024-07-15T14:25:56 | 2024-07-15T14:25:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
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