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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-fwRqLagtRzhiIInMo4ix
|
Will DJT stock close at or under $15 anytime before the end of the year 2024?
|
[image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason.
|
2024-04-04T12:43:29
|
2024-09-20T08:08:36
|
2024-09-20T08:08:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hnf861WgWhIMP1ChoTTh
|
Will any perpetrators of the $30 million Easter Sunday cash heist be caught within the next six months? (by October 4th)
|
Here's the relevant context, from the LA Times:
In one of the largest cash heists in Los Angeles history, thieves made off with as much as $30 million in an Easter Sunday burglary at a San Fernando Valley money storage facility, an L.A. police official revealed Wednesday...
The burglary occurred Sunday night at a facility in Sylmar where cash from businesses across the region is handled and stored....
The burglars were able to breach the building as well as the safe where the money was stored, Morales said....
Mystery surrounds the break-in... Further adding to the intrigue is that very few individuals would have known of the huge sums of cash that were being kept within that safe, according to the law enforcement sources.
An FBI spokeswoman confirmed Wednesday night that the agency and the LAPD are investigating the theft.
This market resolves YES if any alleged perpetrators of this heist are arrested by October 4th, 2024.
Details:
This will resolve based on reporting from credible, mainstream outlets (ideally, the LA Times) that an alleged perpetrator has been arrested. It does not require any further progress in the legal proceedings.
If it turns out the police screwed up and got the wrong person, that's beyond the scope of the question. What matters is reporting that someone was arrested due to their (alleged) involvement in this crime.
Further, reporting needs to allege that they actually took part in the robbery itself. I.e. it can't just be that they helped the robbers handle the money, or covered up for them later, or etc. The claim needs to be that they played a role on the night of the robbery itself.
I'm very far from an expert here, so please ask any/all clarifying questions and I'll continue to flesh out the market description as required.
Other sources:
NYPost: "Thieves steal $30 million from vault in Easter heist, leave without a trace — cops have no idea how they did it"
Washington Post: "Burglars steal $30 million in cash from Los Angeles money storage facility, police say"
I can continue to flesh this out as more news comes in.
|
2024-04-04T10:14:35
|
2024-10-05T15:14:41
|
2024-10-05T16:49:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kvq3Ax6EQ4nbU0yEtXJ6
|
Will RFK Jr participate in an official presidential debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-04T09:28:06
|
2024-08-27T08:12:29
|
2024-08-27T08:12:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LmyZULtEYrhgjBGVTZsR
|
If Trump wins, will he tweet within a week after the election on X?
|
If Donald Trump is not the elected president, this market will resolve as N/A.
Only confirmed accounts, specifically @realDonaldTrump, are eligible. Spam or obviously fake tweets not from him or his team will not be considered.
Only original posts or reposts with added text will count. Replies and simple reposts will not be included. For instance, the first tweet wouldn't count, but the second one would count:
[image]The timeframe for this market is defined as November 5th, 20:00 EST, to November 12th, 23:59 EST.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Related conditional question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/if-trump-loses-will-he-tweet-within)
|
2024-04-04T06:30:56
|
2024-11-13T11:00:00
|
2024-11-13T11:33:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-arwsB3f3zoFVwatyBc6K
|
Will US March 2024 monthly core CPI rise less or equal to 0.3%?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-04T05:23:38
|
2024-04-11T08:59:00
|
2024-04-11T19:00:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OjfCnBmSdZOopZbi9y27
|
Will Harry Kane score more than four goals at EURO 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-04T01:27:42
|
2024-07-14T13:51:05
|
2024-07-14T13:51:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Ey42pIIyHyktp9KCsPK
|
[Polymarket] Ukraine aid package in April?
|
This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/ukraine-aid-package-in-april/ukraine-aid-package-in-april?tid=1712217574593). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a new bill containing at least $5 billion in aid to Ukraine is signed into law in the US between April 1 and April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Funding for replenishment of US stocks sent to Ukraine counts as Ukraine aid. Aid in the form of a loan will count toward this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used."
|
2024-04-04T01:00:05
|
2024-04-27T19:25:08
|
2024-04-27T19:25:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a2XNzs6aLUY1qah9toPN
|
Will $BTC drop down to $50000 by 06/06/2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-03T22:20:02
|
2024-06-05T11:14:00
|
2024-06-12T17:02:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bcZQ0YvNq3IdW0xepVEY
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 3rd?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-03T16:07:34
|
2024-05-03T20:59:00
|
2024-05-03T21:18:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5RYvcPTm4WLCJxeEGGi9
|
Will Russia mobilize at least 100k more soldiers before the end of 2024?
|
This prediction will resolve as “Yes” if, between 2024-01-01 and 2024-12-31, at least 100,000 additional Russian soldiers are mobilized, as confirmed by reliable third-party sources such as NATO, the UN, the US State Department, or the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The mobilization must be specifically related to the war in Ukraine, rather than the regular 12-month conscription that happens every year. This confirmation must be verifiable and come from a reliable source, not just from Russian government sources, in order for the prediction to resolve as “Yes.” The prediction will resolve as “No” if the above criteria are not met. If there is a lack of consensus on how many soldiers were mobilized during 2024, this market will resolve as 'N/A'.
For context, ~300k soldiers were mobilized by Russia in 2022. No soldiers were mobilized in 2023 (see last years question).
Note that the soldiers explicitly have to "mobilized", so "volunteers"/"kontraktniki" are excluded.
Clarification: the mobilization must be explicitly involuntary. People choosing to sign up to fight against Ukraine voluntarily don't count. What's "voluntary" is a spectrum but at the very least it requires a threat of violence or threat of imprisonment for said person or someone in their family.
|
2024-04-03T13:43:17
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:39:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6nQf1yMPKG809K6Fo9v9
|
Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" gross >$6.5 million (domestic) during its 5th weekend (April 5-7)?
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if the weekend gross for April 5 - 7 is >$6,500,000.
For example, last weekend (March 29 - 31) "Kung Fu Panda 4" grossed $10,347,210. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $6.5M would be a roughly ~37% drop from last weekend.
|
2024-04-03T13:20:48
|
2024-04-10T13:04:06
|
2024-04-10T13:04:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RJJ2c7Eb2RXe1bXBbwy3
|
Will Poland’s team score more than two goals at EURO 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-03T12:38:31
|
2024-06-25T10:38:47
|
2024-06-25T10:38:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ai82JUfpJWKi64SsW8vA
|
Will Nebraska change its electoral vote allocation to "winner take all" for the 2024 Presidential election?
|
Currently, Nebraska has an unusual system where it splits its electoral votes by congressional district. Nebraska Republicans are considering changing that, so that all the state's electoral votes go to the winner of the state.
Will that change become law in time to be active for the 2024 election?
More info: https://www.sfgate.com/news/politics/article/months-ahead-of-the-presidential-election-19383726.php
|
2024-04-03T11:27:18
|
2024-11-05T07:45:26
|
2024-11-05T07:45:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gwTjk3vGB9EM5awpxXFY
|
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of July?
|
This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of July.
|
2024-04-03T08:57:06
|
2024-07-31T21:59:00
|
2024-08-04T19:11:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nJb87ZQh1361GKxHjens
|
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000 in April 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-03T08:18:21
|
2024-05-01T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T23:19:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5tNINiubLYyAJ2NmMfQ2
|
Will J.K. Rowling be arrested in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if J. K. Rowling is arrested, for any reason, before 2025.
|
2024-04-03T08:13:28
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:57:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P1yvadebkdGKWRBHzM2b
|
Will the UK ban or restrict arms sales to Israel in 2024?
|
Following this week's killing of multiple aid workers including British citizens by Israel, some top Conservative MPs have called for the UK to stop arming Israel:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/britain-should-stop-arming-israel-lord-ricketts-former-national-security-adviser
This is significant since the Tories have traditionally been the most pro-Israel and pro-arms party. If they are turning against arms sales, they are likely to be joined by Labour, the Lib Dems and the SNP.
Will arms sales to Israel be stopped or restricted in 2024?
The following would count for a YES resolution:
An announcement by the government that arms sales are being stopped or restricted
Legislation banning or restricting arms sales to Israel or to a group designed to include Israel. Non-binding Parliamentary votes would not count.
A court ruling that arms sales must be stopped or restricted. If a ruling goes into effect, that counts even if it is due to be appealed. If it is waiting for appeals to finish before going into effect, that doesn't count yet.
|
2024-04-03T05:26:57
|
2024-09-02T12:21:35
|
2024-09-02T12:21:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Iv6XnqIAup5VdMRImWLr
|
Will the Taiwan earthquake halt chip production at a TSMC facility for a month or more?
|
Note that I don't know how TSMC factories work, so resolution will be best effort based on publicly available information.
|
2024-04-02T21:31:09
|
2024-04-11T06:27:46
|
2024-04-11T06:27:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vYKEUDgwgUogy5aI3DY2
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on April 3?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 3 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Apr 3 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-04-02T20:51:35
|
2024-04-03T21:11:47
|
2024-04-03T21:11:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uonBgDfVNx9Prp5334n
|
Will Nebraska use winner-take-all for the 2024 presidential election?
|
See story
Legislature bill
YES if all 5 of Nebraska’s electors for president are awarded on a statewide vote basis instead of the existing hybrid system in 2024.
|
2024-04-02T19:47:19
|
2024-11-03T20:03:47
|
2024-11-03T20:03:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-staJJ5tuwc8Ah63qAXmG
|
Will Bitcoin drop below $60000 before the end of April 2024?
|
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
start counting from market creation date
|
2024-04-02T16:57:42
|
2024-04-18T06:12:09
|
2024-04-18T06:12:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EdI1jkAgWA9yGqavEVWH
|
Will Bitcoin hit $69.5K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-02T15:46:28
|
2024-04-07T13:17:45
|
2024-04-07T13:17:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hlh1XeVydaw0pBYvFgvS
|
Will Bitcoin hit $71K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-02T15:42:38
|
2024-04-08T03:42:31
|
2024-04-08T03:42:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1PBheAOUd4QU5TSOmWxh
|
Will Bitcoin hit $73.5K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-04-02T15:41:54
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:48:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CSJbratv0an1qrrKutp4
|
Will Apple mention "Google" or "Gemini" at WWDC 2024 (if an AI partnership is announced between Apple and Google)?
|
Rumours about the upcoming WWDC Apple Event suggest that Apple may announce an AI partnership with Google to implement their use of their proprietary model "Gemini".
Apple following historic events, traditionally hates announcing other companies contributions to their technologies unless absolutely neccecity. Therefore, many speculate, (including the waveform podcast, from which this question was inspired), that Apple will, as part of their contract with Google, specify that they do not have to mention their brands eg. "Powered by Gemini".
NOTE: Resolves YES if Apple mentions "Google", "Gemini", or equivilent. Resolves NO if a partnership is either not announced or "Google", "Gemini" or equivilent are not mentioned.
|
2024-04-02T14:15:09
|
2024-06-10T19:13:08
|
2024-06-10T19:13:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iV0jC6Xj4M9ktNgDtmqL
|
Will Iowa beat UCONN in the women's basketball tournament?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-02T11:42:10
|
2024-04-05T20:36:24
|
2024-04-05T20:36:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L8KjVh9noBBJCT0CLCwO
|
Will Joe Biden debate Donald Trump before the end of July 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-02T11:27:28
|
2024-06-27T20:19:47
|
2024-06-27T20:19:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eYjPyz3U0grWFFmBoh4E
|
Will a model from Keen Technologies by John Carmack be in the top 10 on the LMSYS leaderboards by the end of 2024?
|
I still think Carmack's solo adventure in AGI is the most neglected potentially interesting venture in the space, at least by Manifold.
[tweet]I sit here at my computer all the time, thinking up concepts, documenting them, making theories, testing them. That’s the work right now, as nobody really knows the full path all the way to where we want to go. But I think I’ve got as good a shot at it as anyone
Resolves to YES if, at any point before end of 2024, the LMSYS leaderboards have a model demonstrably from Keen / Carmack in the top 10. Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2024-04-02T10:09:42
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T11:05:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-whWeeo6ZJWE7tqYgTT7B
|
Will Bitcoin be above $64000 at the end of April 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-02T08:02:22
|
2024-04-30T22:03:27
|
2024-04-30T22:03:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j7oeeHhIAREmOxDxPsBY
|
Will RFK Jr. be elected President of the United States in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-02T07:20:23
|
2024-11-06T17:14:08
|
2024-11-06T17:14:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rQDfarhcbLxfRLGNSyRY
|
Will Jannick Sinner be number 1 on the ATP ranking at the end of the Roland Garros?
|
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_rankings
|
2024-04-02T06:31:15
|
2024-06-10T14:59:00
|
2024-06-11T13:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iCzjmsNQ4RsqpPpYBnqU
|
⚽ Will Chelsea beat Manchester United during regular time on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:15
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester United has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-04-02T05:17:04
|
2024-04-04T15:15:00
|
2024-04-07T15:52:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JIUw5coRGH3LUejvcC9p
|
⚽ Will Liverpool beat Sheffield Utd during regular time on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Liverpool vs Sheffield Utd
📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Sheffield Utd has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-04-02T05:17:02
|
2024-04-04T14:30:00
|
2024-04-05T18:23:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iBg9BcqSaYOSNWCK767b
|
Bitcoin above $70,000 on April 5?
|
Resolves identical to the polymarket question: https://polymarket.com/event/bitcoin-above-70000-on-april-5
Here is its resolution criteria:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTCUSDT 05 Apr '24 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) has a final “Close” price of 70,000.01 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTCUSDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.
Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTCUSDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
|
2024-04-01T23:09:49
|
2024-04-07T09:51:05
|
2024-04-07T09:51:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f7bOO5nEJxGrbfKBwV4K
|
Will RFK Jr. be on the ballot for president in the state of New York?
|
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is running as an independent candidate for president of the United States. He is currently collecting signatures in order to be on the ballot in all 50 states. He has already qualified to be on the ballot in some states, such as Utah, Hawaii, and North Carolina. Many states require only a few hundred signatures while others require thousands. Then there are states like New York and California which require tens of thousands.
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be on the ballot in the state of New York?
Please note the following ways this question may resolve:
YES: RFK Jr. collects the required 45,000 signatures and gets on the ballot
YES: NY alters the requirements, but RFK Jr. still gets on the ballot
YES: RFK Jr. does not meet signature requirement but gets on ballot anyway
YES: RFK Jr. gets on ballot through other means (lawsuit, joins a party, etc.)
NO: RFK Jr. does not collect enough signatures and is not on the ballot
NO: NY alters the requirements, and does not allow RFK Jr. on the ballot
NO: RFK Jr. meets requirements, but is disallowed (lawsuit, corruption, etc.)
NO: the election is cancelled and there is no ballot
NO: NY secedes from the union and therefore won't vote for president
NO: America is conquered, destroyed, or otherwise dissolved
NO: the Constitution is revoked or the government is replaced
NO: extraterrestrials invade and subjugate or eliminate all humans
NO: a religious figure emerges or returns and changes humanity
NO: a time loop is created and the month of November never arrives
NO: the world, or possibly the entire universe, ceases to exist
|
2024-04-01T17:46:55
|
2024-05-30T04:25:11
|
2024-05-30T04:25:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YqlD5Wdhh9Z9wVIqV87i
|
Will Rashee Rice play in at least 9 games this season?
|
Regular season games for this upcoming season
|
2024-04-01T13:01:51
|
2024-11-29T12:08:18
|
2024-11-29T12:08:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pFmySSqYXYEd7CW0VRow
|
Will any Republican Primary National poll in April 2024 show <75% support for Trump?
|
Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-04-01T11:03:00
|
2024-04-26T13:27:56
|
2024-04-26T13:27:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NMHI71cQxgouvjyzlUgN
|
Blackpool south by-election - Will Reform UK get above 15%?
|
With Scott Benton's resignation, a by-election is scheduled for the Blackpool South seat on 2nd May:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Blackpool_South_by-election
Blackpool South was a Labour held seat for a couple of decades, but was part of the "Red Wall" wave of Parliamentary seats which went to the Tories in the 2019 election. Manifold users are expecting the seat to go back to Labour in the by-election - @/SimonGrayson/which-party-will-win-the-blackpool
This seat is also a big test for Reform UK. They've been polling between 10% and 16% nationwide and this is exactly the sort of seat they should be strong in.
Will they manage to get more than 15% of the vote in this by-election?
|
2024-04-01T08:41:32
|
2024-05-02T21:28:31
|
2024-05-02T21:28:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bshRWjiYnvgoK8d8AKbF
|
Will bitcoin hit $77k before May 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-01T08:40:51
|
2024-04-30T22:03:55
|
2024-04-30T22:03:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-spqgHcaL9KWuZgDqkS9i
|
Will the Nasdaq 100 index (NASDAQ:NDX) close positive for the month of April 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the NDX is greater than the opening price. (18280.82)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
Index: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AwEbTtxK/?symbol=NDX
|
2024-04-01T07:04:37
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T15:48:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iYj9RjR71fStauyxuT5B
|
Will "Challengers" (2024) have >86% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?
|
"Challengers" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/challengers_2023
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on May 10th (two weeks after release).
Details:
I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO).
Example: the Tomatometer for director Luca Guadagnino's earlier "Call Me By Your Name" is 94%.
"Challengers" stars Zendaya, Josh O'Connor, & Mike Faist.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/AXEK7y1BuNQ)
|
2024-04-01T06:42:24
|
2024-05-10T08:14:08
|
2024-05-10T08:14:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7FhDZEyrG2VJo0ujF2qB
|
Will Bitcoin hit 80k before the Republican National Convention
|
Data taken from https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin
|
2024-04-01T06:39:38
|
2024-07-16T20:59:00
|
2024-07-19T13:59:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mQie5CNcxhcfO71fIhL3
|
Israel:Hamas ceasefire in April? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸
|
This is my 3rd time making this market. For the love of whichever God you believe in, please let this one finally be a YES.
At any point in the month of April will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
Israel and Hamas end their war
Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of April 30th, 2024.
|
2024-04-01T06:31:40
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:09:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SRCZueFKREx3XPKiQ6B8
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Memorial Day?
|
Mon, May 27, 2024 in us et
|
2024-04-01T06:23:05
|
2024-05-28T03:32:04
|
2024-05-28T03:32:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WtEloJKdx5zhqdlZHdtq
|
Will bitcoin hit a new ATH before the end of the April 2024?
|
[image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2024-04-01T06:07:12
|
2024-04-30T19:59:00
|
2024-05-02T17:04:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XqOSIJljdKzNxZETPtwP
|
Will we see Biden playing golf against Trump before the end of 2024?
|
This is a vibebased market.
It doesn't have to be a serious match. Some putting on a carpet, for example, as part of a presidential debate, would resolve this market as well. After market creation. It doesn't have to be televised.
The bait:
[tweet]
|
2024-04-01T05:39:34
|
2025-01-01T04:42:48
|
2025-01-01T04:42:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7esMxJpb2W5vVqoNLYXh
|
Will the US election happen before the UK elections
|
Done by the last date someone can vote
|
2024-04-01T04:46:08
|
2024-07-04T17:52:48
|
2024-07-04T17:52:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TBPauoexmiSeIWVNSvfq
|
Will Ethereum token - Ether cross $5000 by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-04-01T03:57:43
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-03T13:11:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N8Hbui25z25YDPNHTRHh
|
Will Bitcoin hit $85K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-04-01T00:07:54
|
2024-04-30T21:36:00
|
2024-05-01T09:40:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YujYoefMqD7hSLboYyVO
|
Will Bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of May 2024?
|
going by multiple websites for prices at end of market close (eastern time)
|
2024-03-31T22:07:52
|
2024-05-31T20:59:00
|
2024-05-31T21:17:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cA4COHRtcAYJcjHQVGh4
|
Will Bitcoin hit $72.5K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-03-31T21:24:40
|
2024-04-08T08:48:10
|
2024-04-08T08:48:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MHrvA0Xt6oqdhCc0zWoM
|
Will Bitcoin hit $74K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-03-31T21:24:30
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:48:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oQdBGRpPdC3hsKcCoW8z
|
Will Bitcoin hit $73K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-03-31T21:24:16
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-04-30T22:48:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bOCEdtN07f80IH8orH4a
|
Will Bitcoin hit $72K in April 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT.
|
2024-03-31T21:23:20
|
2024-04-08T08:47:59
|
2024-04-08T08:47:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pAP0bjsER2c5a3jly2Ti
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive till the end of April 2024
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy Carter is alive at 11:59 EST on April 30, 2024
Resolves No otherwise.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
|
2024-03-31T21:12:09
|
2024-04-30T21:59:00
|
2024-05-02T21:17:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YFhTXDZkPEkI1AKJPnR3
|
Will Jimmy Carter Survive the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy survives the second quarter of 2024 (Apr 1 - June 30); Resolves No otherwise
|
2024-03-31T21:10:04
|
2024-06-30T21:59:00
|
2024-07-02T22:51:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LzXQc4fdqguh0UN7MqsX
|
Will any Democratic Primary National poll in April 2024 show >80% support for Biden?
|
Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/
|
2024-03-31T19:26:22
|
2024-05-02T20:59:00
|
2024-05-03T06:43:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FyaxzCiSEVRSS2yEiwin
|
Will France send troops to Ukraine by the end of 2024?
|
Troops may be sent in any capacity whether to fight or repair equipment to fulfill the contract.
|
2024-03-31T16:24:45
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T22:08:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1YJ4AZHZrp9LzgzuswNI
|
Will the death toll in Gaza be over 35,000 by the end of April
|
This is resolve source https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/longform/2023/10/9/israel-hamas-war-in-maps-and-charts-live-tracker
|
2024-03-31T12:32:05
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T03:37:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M7JCBIUXhxwJAfVAU4QG
|
⚽ Will Manchester City beat Aston Villa during regular time on Wed, Apr 3, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Manchester City vs Aston Villa
📅 Date: Wednesday, April 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:15
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester City has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Aston Villa has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-31T10:13:10
|
2024-04-03T15:15:00
|
2024-04-03T16:01:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Uag3TvrJvaUXtLLaZ1B
|
Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before the end of April 2024?
|
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
|
2024-03-31T07:01:00
|
2024-05-01T20:59:00
|
2024-05-02T07:40:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0NKpngYGD37VPkBNYs3q
|
Will Bitcoin close above $60000 at the end of Apr 2024?
|
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
|
2024-03-31T06:59:42
|
2024-05-01T20:59:00
|
2024-05-02T07:40:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1pB6XzV79LyNJ6cIFaeF
|
Will Bitcoin close above $70000 at the end of Apr 2024?
|
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
|
2024-03-31T06:59:34
|
2024-05-01T15:18:53
|
2024-05-01T15:18:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1htngAegp2Ei6yvcWeFo
|
Will Joe Biden live to see Trump convicted of a crime?
|
See: @/strutheo/will-biden-live-to-see-luffy-find-t
See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-the-russ
See: @/strutheo/will-joe-biden-live-to-see-grand-th
|
2024-03-30T22:42:42
|
2024-05-30T14:13:06
|
2024-05-30T14:13:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fe9hBTOrDHLeGBRoLRSW
|
Will Bitcoin be above $70K at the end of April?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-30T21:03:39
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:30:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ed1EZque0dMQjqoxeO0h
|
Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-30T13:16:21
|
2024-08-12T07:11:09
|
2024-08-12T07:11:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zcy2rPRvhnhJxXI7bhY9
|
Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2024?
|
Will resolve YES if the Kurzgesagt channel publishes a video on AI alignment or explicitly AI and its risks (i.e. not on broad existential risk) before the deadline.
|
2024-03-30T13:15:09
|
2024-08-01T03:38:49
|
2024-08-01T03:38:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3BLxMb0vMcAPdSYUDUS2
|
Will Bitcoin close the year above $65,000?
|
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2024-03-30T13:13:47
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-02T21:51:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4QcmciT1j5kDuBQKKi4G
|
Will Bitcoin close the year above $55,000?
|
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2024-03-30T13:13:38
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-01T03:39:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mG5qUU1iEVcPmv7zKYDF
|
Will Bitcoin close the year above $45,000?
|
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2024-03-30T13:13:29
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-01T18:46:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ihoId1SpCjlD9pgRpvOb
|
Will Bitcoin close the year above $25,000?
|
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
|
2024-03-30T13:13:21
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-02T21:51:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BmK6wCA9ol7sjaqB9ZGt
|
In 2024, will OpenAI/Microsoft confirm plans to build a supercomputer like the rumored $100 billion "Stargate"?
|
If OpenAI and/or Microsoft officially confirm their plans to build something broadly similar to the rumored "Stargate" project by the end of 2024, this market resolves YES.
Examples of cases which would count for a YES resolution:
Any major AI data center/supercomputer project officially named "Stargate", or confirmed to have been codenamed "Stargate".
Any AI data center/supercomputer project that is confirmed to cost over 20 billion dollars in total, regardless of what it is named.
The project does not have to be fully in motion, confirmation of the plan existing on the record is still sufficient for a YES resolution.
If these criteria are not met by market close, this market resolves NO.
Context:
[image]The US-based supercomputer, known as "Stargate," would be the centerpiece of a five-phase plan focused on a series of supercomputer installations the companies plan to build in the next six years, the outlet reported. Stargate, which would be phase 5 of the plan, could launch as soon as 2028, people involved in the proposal told The Information.
The supercomputer could be 100 times more expensive than the largest data centers currently in operation, per the report. The project signals the massive amount of money likely to be poured into the industry as artificial intelligence continues to evolve in the coming years.
|
2024-03-30T10:36:50
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:35:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8SOt8NhRWWKbkanwg8XV
|
Will Donald Trump get convicted of a felony before he picks his VP
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-30T10:32:54
|
2024-06-14T12:24:40
|
2024-06-14T12:24:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-785XgA5NZ5OVZP6qtS6P
|
Will Israel control Rafah by the end of May?
|
This question will resolve YES if there is a media consensus that Israel controls the vast majority of Rafah by the end of May.
|
2024-03-30T08:46:35
|
2024-05-31T21:59:00
|
2024-06-01T11:43:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0TkhaTUV86cXknHeoJ0E
|
[Polymarket] Israel ground offensive in Rafah by April 30?
|
This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-april-30/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-april-30?tid=1711793059632). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), the New York Times or WSJ reports that Israel has initiated a ground offensive within Rafah. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Reports of small raids or special operations will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source of this market will be reporting from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal."
|
2024-03-30T03:06:02
|
2024-04-30T17:25:35
|
2024-04-30T17:25:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VsfUBvN2bjrNH00vaDPH
|
Will Sora be released to the general public before Jimmy Carter dies
|
if Sora is released to anyone willing to pay enough (not outrageously expensive 1000 a month or 100 dollars a video) then will resolve
|
2024-03-29T15:56:23
|
2024-12-10T08:41:02
|
2024-12-10T08:41:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h6U2IrLpoSOOarhk1aYz
|
Will Bitcoin hit a new all time high before 4/20 ends
|
All time high counts for any bitcoin bought over the previous all time high
Currently it is 73,750.
|
2024-03-29T08:20:10
|
2024-04-20T20:59:00
|
2024-04-21T04:17:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oQT4gfzQ92V5YBLq3iUn
|
Will Evan Gershkovich be freed from prison in Russia before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-29T06:31:57
|
2024-08-02T09:55:52
|
2024-08-02T09:55:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-THPsMRwQWcaZttCDbZvv
|
Will Starship IFT-4 survive past the point of maximum re-entry heating?
|
Musk says the goal of the next Starship mission is to get past the point of maximum re-entry heating "with all systems functioning". This market considers the somewhat lower bar of "not exploding".
[tweet]Resolves YES if in the fourth Starship–SuperHeavy test flight, SpaceX confirms that Starship didn't experience a rapid unscheduled disassembly until after passing the point of maximum re-entry heating.
Any RUD (of Starship) earlier in the flight causes this market to resolve NO.
If telemetry is lost before the point of maximum re-entry heating, and it cannot be confirmed exactly when a RUD occurred with respect to the point of maximum heating, the market resolves NO. It only resolves YES if it can be confirmed that the vehicle survived past that point. Confirmation via other means than on-board telemetry will count (but seems unlikely).
This market stays open until the fourth flight launches, meaning lifts off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust of its engines. Therefore a RUD on the pad before launch does not cause this market to resolve NO, it will stay open pending the result of the next Starship–SuperHeavy flight, even if that flight is not named IFT-4.
Resolves NA if there is good reason to expect a fourth flight will never happen.
Edit May 21st: this market will close at launch so that I can recoup some subsidy at resolution. This makes subsidising markets like this more viable.
|
2024-03-29T04:26:57
|
2024-06-06T05:50:00
|
2024-06-06T06:57:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-exBzGmatm4RmNyUm44YU
|
Will Grok 2 'exceed current [March 28 2024] AI on all metrics'?
|
On March 29, Elon Musk tweeted this (https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1773655245769330757 ):
"Should be available on 𝕏 next week. Grok 2 should exceed current AI on all metrics. In training now."
Is that so? Let's find out.
Note that for this purpose it counts as 'Grok 2' even if it is renamed - the only way a newly announced xAI model does not count as that is if it is named Grok 1.X, or otherwise is clearly pre-2, but the thing in training now counts whatever they ultimately call it, if they release it, etc.
Resolves YES if Grok 2 is released and it exceeds or ties (to 1 decimal place) Claude 3 Opus and all metrics for models available to the public in some form on or before 3/28/24 on everything in this chart:
[image]So MMLU, GPQA, GSM8K, AMTH, MGSM, HumanEval, DROP, Big-Bench-Hard, ARC-Challenge and HellaSwag.
Resolves NO if Grok 2 is released and does NOT exceed or tie these numbers on one or more of these metrics, or if Grok 2 is not released by EOY 2025.
If xAI does not test on all of these metrics, but it succeeds on all metrics that it does test, and there is no way to test on the others, I will use best judgment - if it clearly would have exceeded I will still resolve YES, but by default (or if it would have been close) I will assume they chose which metrics to test on based on results, and be inclined to count that as NO. Will clarify further if this gets a lot of interest, as needed.
|
2024-03-29T04:21:05
|
2024-12-24T20:59:00
|
2024-12-25T03:15:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oeqMtblOW6ZEB5aYMRPu
|
Will Elon Musk OR Mark Zuckerberg mentions "The fight" again in 2024?
|
This question resolves true if either Elon Musk or Mark Zuckerberg mentions the fight again before the end of 2024.
Please send tweet, Instagram, screenshots, or anything else that proves this to be true. I'll resolve when the proof is submitted in the comments.
Timestamp must be after this question was created 30 March 2024.
|
2024-03-29T02:40:53
|
2024-05-16T05:24:05
|
2024-05-16T05:24:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-segPnphGzPUXvUKct1bT
|
Will a new Animal Crossing main series title be announced before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-28T23:05:49
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:41:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8QRPxlht3H1LmOtgxRFf
|
Will Trump pardon the insurrectionists?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-28T19:00:28
|
2025-01-23T01:14:06
|
2025-01-23T01:14:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y3dFehmhA0PCbZEEsDDs
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5200 at the end of Apr 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-03-28T15:21:01
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T17:30:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s5KBQH2f1RhPuvxtdEvm
|
Will there be a major spike in protests in the US in 2024 (comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests)?
|
This question will use data published by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), which runs the United States Crisis Monitor project.
For the purposes of this question, "a major spike in protests" means 1,000 or more demonstrations (protests or riots) in a single week in 2024, according to ACLED data.
The last time this threshold was passed was during the George Floyd protests, in May and June of 2020, visible as the only major spike in the ACLED's demonstration data from Jan 2020 to Mar 2024:
[image]Will there be a major spike in protests (e.g. comparable to the 2020 George Floyd protests) in the United States in any week of 2024, according to ACLED data?
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-there-be-a-major-spike-in-prot-cy65AZzs6S?play=true)
|
2024-03-28T11:05:16
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:49:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TMT2REc2UH6frRPDRrwv
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo finish ahead of Oliver Bearman in the 2024 WDC?
|
If they are tied in points the question resolves to "No"
|
2024-03-28T09:19:21
|
2024-12-08T07:18:25
|
2024-12-08T07:18:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4f3kG5TpjOBvkSaa5B3V
|
🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $12,500/metric ton in 2024?
|
IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $12,500 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in the FRED dataset to resolve.
See also: @/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-6000metric
@/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-10000metri
|
2024-03-28T08:02:46
|
2025-01-28T10:23:11
|
2025-01-28T10:23:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Axba729loya4wrRwJStB
|
If Trump wins, will $DJT (Truth Social) be above $40.00 at EOY 2024?
|
If Donald Trump is not the elected president, this market will resolve as N/A.
This market will resolve as YES if the stock price of TRUMP MEDIA & TECHNOLOGY GROUP CORP is >$40.00.
If the stock price is <=$40.00, this market will resolve as NO.
This market will be adjusted for stock splits, but NOT for dividends.
This question will close at 14:00 EST on December 31st and will be resolved according to the provided information by NYSE historic prices.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Related conditional question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/if-trump-loses-will-djt-truth-socia)
|
2024-03-28T06:50:48
|
2024-12-31T11:00:00
|
2024-12-31T16:09:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mKtB9yTzbSA3HvZxCIiY
|
Will Joe Biden's approval rating be higher than 45% on election day?
|
per 538's average. 45.0% resolves no, 45.1 resolves yes.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
|
2024-03-28T02:18:00
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:40:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DRYzSz27nrULDMSnjDeI
|
Will a Dutch politician hit another Dutch politician before Christmas?
|
Yesterday the party leader of the Forum voor Democratie said he would hit another politician if they kept pestering him about a topic, this has apparently happened before.
Will any national politicians (1ste Kamer, 2de Kamer or mayor of one of the 10 biggest cities) get involved in a fist fight with a different national politician?
So has to be someone in the Senate or House of Representatives or one of the mayors of the 10 biggest cities.
|
2024-03-28T01:02:13
|
2024-12-28T14:59:00
|
2024-12-29T00:41:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pe73lESCo206lqxTDRWa
|
Will OpenAI release something on April 2?
|
Recently, OpenAI sent an email about migrating from an end of the month billing model, to a pre-purchased credits model.
In the email, they mentioned that on exactly April 2nd, they will gift 25$ worth of credits, for every user that purchases 25$ or more.
The migration has already happened so April 2 is an arbitrary date in this regard. I also purchased 25$ worth of credits on Mar 27, after the email, and got no bonus, so it was not a phrasing inaccuracy meaning up-to April 2. It's right after April fools day.
Does that hint on a release on their part on April 2?
|
2024-03-27T23:18:59
|
2024-04-02T22:17:07
|
2024-04-02T22:17:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wMKCS88bnHWQ1MnhA2iq
|
Will US public opinion shift towards Israel during 2024 (according to gallop)?
|
Based on this question:
[image]In March 2024 gallop reported israel having a net favoutabutilty of 51% - 27% = 24%.
If this has increased in March 2025 numbers I will resolve yes. If it decreases or stays the same I will resolve no.
You can find out more about the polling practices here:
https://news.gallup.com/poll/611375/americans-views-israel-palestinian-authority-down.aspx
My understanding is that these numbers are updated in March most years as part of "Gallup's annual World Affairs survey".
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/when-will-the-2023-israel-hamas-war)
|
2024-03-27T22:00:50
|
2025-03-07T04:10:05
|
2025-03-07T04:10:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-08E3UClFZZzoaaIAhkSJ
|
Will there be French boots on the ground in Ukraine by the end of 2024
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/bsU6gONt8Z8?si=pD-m7rEqp0LZ39hi)
|
2024-03-27T18:28:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-19T01:07:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V5K63WVyR0U4bZyVT5Lm
|
Will another TV network pick up Ronna McDaniel this month?
|
Context: NBC dropping former RNC Chair Ronna McDaniel as a contributor
On March 26th, NBC dropped Ronna Romney McDaniel as a contributor from their network. Will any other TV network pick up the former RNC chair in the next month (before April 26th)?
This doesn’t necessarily need to be a mainstream TV network, I will count OANN and other far right networks, as long as they have a TV portion that she is a paid contributor of. Also she must be announced as a paid contributor for the network, merely appearing on Fox News is not sufficient to Resolve this market.
|
2024-03-27T17:21:27
|
2024-04-26T20:59:00
|
2024-04-26T21:06:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4ipChlgNwljQxztkFhcU
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to see Super Bowl LIX?
|
He’s presumably a Falcon’s fan. Will Ol’ Jim get to see next year’s Super Bowl?
|
2024-03-27T17:08:47
|
2024-12-29T14:00:11
|
2024-12-29T14:00:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tPdjseGBw868qBobF6Cx
|
Will "GPT" be said by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
|
If debate doesn't happen, resolves No. Any variation of "GPT" counts, GPT-4, ChatGPT, etc. Including moderators.
|
2024-03-27T17:04:13
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2024-11-04T10:49:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b5DMxuF14YYRQwwx8DKm
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to see the next Bitcoin Halving?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-27T14:50:54
|
2024-04-19T18:18:07
|
2024-04-19T18:18:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WrJNShaZhXrx1Emyh7VP
|
Will Trump live to see Joe Biden, Hunter Biden, or Hillary Clinton found guilty of a crime?
|
If Trump dies before any of the three are found guilty of a crime this resolves NO
|
2024-03-27T13:38:05
|
2024-06-11T08:20:20
|
2024-06-11T08:20:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fbB3WfSuBKOEdzAOuKdq
|
Will Suno.ai be sued by the RIAA before 2026?
|
This market resolves YES if the RIAA files suit against Suno.ai before January 1, 2026.
|
2024-03-27T11:48:36
|
2024-07-01T13:01:50
|
2024-07-01T13:01:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9puOB2Nvl5ZIYDvJATO2
|
Will Trump's VP be a billionaire?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-27T11:23:11
|
2024-07-15T14:25:56
|
2024-07-15T14:25:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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