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mani-1MaRUeKjxglmxjQNQGeN
|
"Oppenheimer" releases in Japan on March 29th. Will it outgross "Tenet" during its first weekend? (>$2.332M)
|
[Before betting, please read the description in full—international box office reporting can be unreliable, and I will resolve based on the linked source, whether or not other sources agree.]
Due to its sensitive subject matter, "Oppenheimer" (2023) did not initially release in Japan. However, after extensive discussion, Universal partnered with local distributor Bitters End and the film is scheduled for a March 29th theatrical release.
Resolution source:
I will use the weekend gross listed on BoxOfficeMojo (weekend list).
The first weekend for "Tenet" (Nolan's previous film) was September 26-27 (2020), with weekend gross of $2,332,849.
This market resolves YES if the gross listed for "Oppenheimer" by BoxOfficeMojo in its first weekend of release (which is likely to be March 30-31) in Japan is greater than $2,332,849.
Details:
I will use the weekend gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.
The reporting of international box office gross is not always consistent, and this may not exactly match what's reported by other sources.
For reference, in its first weekend of release, "Dune: Part Two" grossed $1,321,529.
I will use the first weekend where "Oppenheimer" appears on BoxOfficeMojo.
To be specific, the "first weekend" for "Tenet" is actually a bit fuzzy. September 26-27 is the first weekend where it appears on BoxOfficeMojo, but technically it's listed as the second weekend, and the total gross at that point is $11.4M. Regardless, this market resolves based on the >$2.332M threshold. I'm only using "Tenet" for the comparison so people have a rough benchmark for intuition (and to show how I will use the source).
|
2024-03-27T09:26:49
|
2024-04-05T05:44:23
|
2024-04-05T05:44:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TOpFp16jmWaHiTKgTy4r
|
Will Real Madrid win Champions League 2023/4?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-27T08:43:45
|
2024-06-01T14:08:22
|
2024-06-01T14:08:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iZJGP35kdgdvkSGD9hk6
|
Will Donald Trump's twitter account be hacked by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-27T07:27:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:11:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bq0SSlVPSI0COH5bSkVN
|
Will Donald Trump/Joe Biden get 300 electoral votes in the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-27T07:21:34
|
2024-11-07T14:59:00
|
2024-12-03T11:11:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1PUxmg2cTWZjcErCotru
|
Will DJT stock close at over $90 anytime before the end of the year 2024?
|
[image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason.
|
2024-03-27T05:23:24
|
2024-12-30T21:15:57
|
2024-12-30T21:15:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3i58OeVHAY73DDByo3w5
|
Will Truth Social shares (DJT) crash in value by the end of 2024? (A drop of 75% from their launch peak)
|
Donald Trump has succeeded in floating Truth Social on the stockmarket through a merger between DWAC (a SPAC set up for this purpose) with his Trump Media & Technology company.
Trump owes 60% of the company and you can see how the shares are doing here:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
Many people have expressed the view that the company is worth nowhere near this amount since Truth Social has made so little revenue. Are people buying the shares as a way of donating their money to Trump with the hope that he will pay them back by enriching them if he wis the election? Or is there some genuine value in this company?
Trump can't sell his shares for the first six months (though there are theories about him being able to do this anyway - @/Kolyin/will-donald-trump-use-his-trump-med), but could they crash in value if he starts divesting shares after this point?
The highest value that the shares have reached in the past 24 hours is $79.38 per share. Will the share price fall by at least 75% from this price?
If the share price falls below $19.85 according to this page (not including out-of-hours trading) by the last working day of 2024, this market will resolve to YES. If the final trading day of 2024 ends without this happening, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-03-27T05:02:28
|
2024-08-28T10:36:17
|
2024-08-28T10:36:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f6JVVm023tvcT12Mcbii
|
Will Bitcoin hit $80K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-03-26T22:33:49
|
2024-04-30T21:36:00
|
2024-05-01T09:40:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6HzggZZXCNcIBYZA2tc2
|
Will Bitcoin hit $95K in 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-26T22:31:04
|
2024-11-21T08:08:11
|
2024-11-21T08:08:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C1gsBdDLXane9HH1RRI8
|
Will Bitcoin go below $58K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-26T22:28:04
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T08:46:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CMgUgGSVhQ0Df16JEHDS
|
Will Bitcoin go below $60K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-26T22:27:09
|
2024-04-18T21:10:43
|
2024-04-18T21:10:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K8E9M3ffJgT0AGxjXGNT
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 27?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 27 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 27 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-03-26T21:16:27
|
2024-03-27T21:03:31
|
2024-03-27T21:03:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uWIQgk2LDUduwqbMeiWo
|
⚽ Will Brentford beat Manchester United during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Brentford vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Brentford has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester United has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-26T19:13:08
|
2024-03-30T16:00:00
|
2024-03-30T16:18:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3V9ub1s48BHE4yqmGEoh
|
⚽ Will Bayern Munich beat Borussia Dortmund during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪
|
⚽ Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30
🏆 Competition: Bundesliga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Bayern Munich has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Borussia Dortmund has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-26T19:13:04
|
2024-03-30T13:30:00
|
2024-03-30T14:08:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-91GhuAcJwo3QET5BGlrS
|
⚽ Will Tottenham beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Tottenham vs Luton
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Tottenham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Luton has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-26T19:12:55
|
2024-03-30T11:00:00
|
2024-03-30T14:08:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SF5N48EAmvWWLv3eWYFD
|
⚽ Will Sheffield Utd beat Fulham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Sheffield Utd has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Fulham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-26T19:12:53
|
2024-03-30T11:00:00
|
2024-03-30T14:08:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ChiwPbZs98oZr9E86exx
|
⚽ Will Newcastle beat West Ham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Newcastle vs West Ham
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Newcastle has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- West Ham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-26T19:12:27
|
2024-03-30T08:30:00
|
2024-03-30T09:31:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aIzBIvTxtMMZynjbm80k
|
Will SilkSong be released before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-26T15:35:07
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:42:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-miHTnx4mPDi1M5dZ9PTR
|
A new gag order was issued on Trump in Judge Merchan’s Manhattan Court. Will Trump violate the order?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-26T13:50:50
|
2024-05-01T03:35:30
|
2024-05-01T03:35:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fEHup3Yk3mOU0At1ITSv
|
🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $10,000/metric ton in 2024?
|
IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $10,000 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in the FRED dataset to resolve.
See also: @/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-6000metric
@/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-12500metri
|
2024-03-26T13:46:50
|
2025-01-28T10:23:16
|
2025-01-28T10:23:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SobDnoyz31EGeh2HS1qK
|
🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $6,000/metric ton in 2024?
|
IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $6000 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in the FRED dataset to resolve.
See also: @/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-10000metri
@/DanMan314/-will-cocoa-prices-reach-12500metri
|
2024-03-26T13:46:02
|
2024-04-20T09:22:46
|
2024-04-20T09:22:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wNYcRF2ZvouoBcwf4LBr
|
Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024?
|
[image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason.
|
2024-03-26T13:18:26
|
2024-12-30T21:16:10
|
2024-12-30T21:16:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-72QBE6fD1vZWkek8ZDdl
|
Will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the USA 2024 presidential election is called?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-26T12:13:27
|
2024-05-30T14:20:01
|
2024-05-30T14:20:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cIvH02U41Qopz5d5IrsO
|
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $111,111 by 1/11/25? (January 11, 2025)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-26T09:44:44
|
2025-01-11T20:59:00
|
2025-01-13T00:09:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QPHqNibwpTkpxZJvjeCh
|
Will Donald Trump's hush-money trial (the Stormy Daniels trial) start on 15th April as planned?
|
Among Donald Trump's many legal troubles, he's due to stand trial for paying hush-money to a porn star from campaign funds.
The trail has been delayed multiple times, but most recently the judge has said that it will start on 15th April:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/trump-court-appearance-stormy-daniels
Will it go ahead as scheduled, or will the Trump team fid some way of delaying it yet again?
|
2024-03-26T08:49:35
|
2024-04-15T08:09:04
|
2024-04-15T08:09:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ujEXtuJc8eg5U5B3y4nR
|
Will Tyler Cowen use the word "Straussian" on any new episode of "Conversations with Tyler" before June 1st?
|
Tyler Cowen (GMU professor, prolific blogger, & podcaster) likes to use the (unusual) word "Straussian" in writing & conversation.
For example, from his November 2023 episode with John Gray:
COWEN: If you’re an honest reader of the book, you roll your eyes and say, “Oh, come on, is this really the message here, or is this a kind of Straussian book?” Right?
GRAY: Yes. Well, you mean it might have a hidden message, and the hidden message in this case is the obvious one.
However, his recent episode with Marilynne Robinson does not use the word.
This market resolves YES if Tyler Cowen says the word "Straussian" on any episode of the podcast "Conversations with Tyler" released between now (March 26th) and May 31st, according to the official transcripts.
Background: "Straussian" has the literal meaning "Of or relating to Leo Strauss or his philosophy" (Wikitionary), although that's not quite what Tyler means. You can find a "definition" here on his blog, and you can decide whether we are meant to take that definition at face value or find our own Straussian reading (a rabbit hole that is almost certainly not worth your time).
|
2024-03-26T08:04:49
|
2024-06-01T06:37:06
|
2024-06-01T14:07:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fdjmwInz1F1lU5vmNA5k
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) reach a new all-time high before the end of the year?
|
[image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/
|
2024-03-26T07:45:15
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:33:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z61ZHdGPcBGFugVKwB18
|
Will DJT outperform BTC in 2024?
|
At the end of 2024, will Trump Media & Technology (DJT) stock will have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC)?
Note: DJT IPO’d in March, so the YTD will be March - December, in comparison to BTC’s January - December.
You can also vote on the meme vs. the index version of this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-djt-outperform-the-sp-500-in-2)
|
2024-03-26T06:55:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-21T21:28:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1qyxFrgxdaLjcHF9JPsQ
|
Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election?
|
Israel has one of the toughest set of rules around military conscription of any country in the world. Most Jewish citizens are eligible for national service, with men serving a minimum of 2 years 8 months and women serving a minimum of 2 years.
Since the founding of Israel, there has been an exemption for ultra-Orthodox Haredi Jews on the basis that young, conscription aged members of the community are devoted full time to studying the Torah. The Haredi communities have argued that their religious study is equivalent to military service - they are protecting their fellow citizens spiritually while members of the IDF are protecting them physically.
The exemption has become increasingly controversial over the past few years, especially as the Haredi population has increased. The exemption originally only applied to a few hundred young men, but Haredi Jews now make up over 10% of Israel's population.
Benjamin Netanyahu has proposed a package of measures around conscription. This includes extending the length of conscription and raising the reservist age and it also includes ending the Haredi exemption:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/26/plan-end-ultra-orthodox-students-military-exemption-row-israel
Netanyahu has warned that failing to pass this law will threaten the stability of the coalition government. His coalition is already unsteady, and there is speculation that he could lose his job in the near future (predict that here - @/SimonGrayson/when-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-rep) so this isn't an idle threat!
Will the government pass legislation ending the Haredi/Yeshiva exemption before the next election? Or will the exemptions be weakened/ended by the courts or by any other mechanism?
Any reduction in this exemption will count for the purposes of the market (even if it's a watered down compromise) so long as it is enacted as law or enforced by the courts.
Update 29th March - there are a few contradictory messages coming out from different politicians in Israel so there is a chance that this market will end up being a bit subjective. Please be aware of that before you trade and please read the comments below for context.
I will endeavour to resolve the market in good faith to the spirit of the question and resolve to YES if either of these things happen:
Netenyahu succeeds in passing legislation which is fundamentally the same as the proposed legislation
The conscription exemptions are removed or significantly reduced by some other method such as the courts
I don’t believe that the latest Supreme Court ruling meets this criteria, it recognises that the exemption is still in place and blocks funding as a result.
I will not be trading on this market myself.
|
2024-03-26T06:39:02
|
2024-08-19T12:53:11
|
2024-08-19T12:53:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7b94RaGb1Vnmg2xdmBOi
|
Will the Key Bridge be repaired and reopened within 6 weeks?
|
Last night, a container ship smashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-collapse-container-ship/
Last time a major transportation artery collapsed, our civilization magically managed to recover our ability to build things fast, and reopened a collapsed portion of I-95 after just 12 days: https://www.governor.pa.gov/newsroom/governor-shapiro-gets-stuff-done-reopening-i-95-in-just-12-days-investing-in-infrastructure-delivering-the-largest-investment-in-state-parks-in-decades/
By contrast, it took my local government 4 freaking years to build a small bike path.
Obviously, the Key Bridge is a much bigger lift than a collapsed portion of I-95. Will we once again demonstrate we can build things fast when we truly want to?
Will resolve YES if there's at least one lane of traffic flowing in each direction across the span where the Key bridge was.
|
2024-03-26T04:15:23
|
2024-05-07T20:59:00
|
2024-05-08T03:38:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YEm7vYpaOXiNNxq3OUvk
|
Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse?
|
Will any new legislation be introduced in the wake of the Key Bridge collapse that has as a primary intent to prevent future incidents like the Key Bridge collapse?
This does NOT mean an aid package to baltimore or the affected area, it is something like maritime law changes in rivers to make it less likely for such an accident to happen.
Often a disaster is a prompt for some new process to be put in place for it to never happen again, will that happen here?
Legislation has to be introduced in 2024. I will not trade in this market.
|
2024-03-26T02:10:01
|
2024-12-17T23:06:49
|
2024-12-17T23:06:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IYJkNkyARYlNon0RFtRH
|
Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2024?
|
France has recently raised its terror alert to the highest level following an attack at a Moscow concert hall, which resulted in at least 137 fatalities. The attack has been claimed by ISIS, and graphic footage has been released. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cited the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility and the threats facing the country as reasons for elevating the Vigipirate posture to its highest level: attack emergency. Additionally, two attempted terror attacks on French soil have been foiled since January, and 45 in total since 2017.
Resolves YES if there is a confirmed terrorist attack by ISIS on French soil in 2024, resulting in at least three deaths.
Resolves NO by 2025.
|
2024-03-26T00:40:37
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:41:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-04oaMNcx0pNYjKgF4GLI
|
On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing?
|
On the first anniversary of the October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing (determined by Wikipedia status)?
See other war anniversary markets:
[markets]
|
2024-03-25T22:28:28
|
2024-10-07T12:52:18
|
2024-10-07T12:52:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KhDPetLfM7Efa7sjXrF6
|
Will "Dune: Part Two" gross >$11.5 million (domestic) during its 5th weekend (March 29-31)?
|
Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if the weekend gross for March 29 - 31 is >$11,500,500.
For example, last weekend (March 22 - 24) "Dune: Part Two" grossed $17,606,784. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $11.5M would be a roughly ~35% drop from last weekend.
|
2024-03-25T21:31:16
|
2024-04-02T06:21:36
|
2024-04-02T06:21:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HnDVpogGDsnTzqJrV9Fn
|
Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases)
|
Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the CDC weekly report published approximately 5 days after the end of 2024.
|
2024-03-25T19:00:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-13T16:26:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-znnjBkvjehRGydDpxGq4
|
Will Jimmy Carter be elected president again before he dies?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-25T17:41:26
|
2024-12-29T16:15:13
|
2024-12-29T16:15:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yZn62LpAmvZOMJArGjl6
|
Will New Glenn reach or exceed orbit before Starship?
|
Vehicle has to make at least one full orbit before deorbiting. Deliberate suborbital flights, even if they had the capability to go orbital (like the last Starship flight) don't count.
|
2024-03-25T17:36:24
|
2025-01-16T11:07:29
|
2025-01-16T11:07:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DkglFDF7K7DOVhapb92J
|
Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons?
|
The bet resolves as "yes" if Putin or a high-ranking Russian official issues an official statement explicitly outlining the ultimatum's terms and the threat of tactical nuclear weapons until EOY 2024.
Possible resolution criterias:
Official Statements: Confirmation of official statements from the Kremlin or Russian government representatives regarding the ultimatum and its conditions.
Diplomatic Activity: Evidence of diplomatic negotiations between Russia and Ukraine aimed at reaching an agreement, including any discussions on the ultimatum.
Military Actions: Significant military movements or exercises by Russia near Eastern Ukraine indicating a heightened state of tension or preparation for an ultimatum.
International Response: Reactions from other governments and international organizations regarding the credibility and seriousness of the ultimatum.
Expert Assessments: Insights from geopolitical analysts and experts on Russian politics regarding the likelihood and potential consequences of such an ultimatum.
Bet ambiguous (N/A) if: unclear statements, vague diplomacy, mixed reactions, conflicting expert opinions.
|
2024-03-25T12:11:42
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:29:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X4o6m1sgkqk3bURKRa7r
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to see Trump found guilty of a crime?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-25T11:07:46
|
2024-05-30T14:14:33
|
2024-05-30T14:14:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RLIrcGWRup1iIc74ritL
|
Will Trump be found guilty of at least 10 of the 34 felony counts against him in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
|
Resolves YES if 10 or more of the counts against him are found GUILTY
|
2024-03-25T10:43:27
|
2024-05-30T14:12:01
|
2024-05-30T14:12:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Vv5GE7f7kDoMrYMCcYz
|
Will any of the 3 main candidates for president drop out or be forced out from running by the end of April?
|
Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are the three main contenders for President of the United States. Will any of them no longer be running by the end of April 2024?
Please note the following ways in which this question may resolve:
YES: a candidate voluntarily drops out (suspends campaign)
YES: a candidate steps aside to let another run in his place
YES: a candidate is forced out from running (by law or by party action)
YES: a candidate is unable to continue running (health or personal issues)
YES: a candidate passes away (natural or by assassination)
YES: the election is cancelled (coup, uprising, takeover, war, etc.)
YES: America dissolves or the Constitution is revoked
YES: America is taken over by hostile forces and new government installed
YES: America is destroyed (volcanos, earthquakes, asteroids, etc.)
YES: extraterrestrials arrive and eliminate or subjugate all humans
YES: all life on the planet comes to an end (nuclear war, aliens, etc.)
YES: the entire earth explodes or is otherwise destroyed
YES: a religious figure returns (or emerges) and changes humanity
YES: a time loop is created and the month of April never ends
YES: the fabric of space/time unravels and universe ceases to exist
NO: all three candidates are still actively campaigning on May 1, 2024
|
2024-03-25T10:42:56
|
2024-04-30T19:05:07
|
2024-04-30T19:05:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-76LbHWetZ0pDRgEfRAJX
|
Will Trump be found guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial?
|
Will Trump be found guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial? Open until case is over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stormy_Daniels%E2%80%93Donald_Trump_scandal
|
2024-03-25T10:42:46
|
2024-05-30T14:10:35
|
2024-05-30T14:10:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GWBL9o634N8NvpZ5u5Zs
|
Will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial conclude before Election Day 2024?
|
The Trial's start date has been set for April 15th
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying New York business records in order to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump. Trump has denied that claim.
This market resolves YES if the trial is concluded before November 5th. This might happen when the jury reaches a verdict, or if a plea deal is reached, or if the charges are dropped. The trial does not include sentencing or appeals, which may occur after election day without changing this market's resolution.
If the trial is not concluded by election day, this market resolves to NO.
The specifics of these resolution criteria may be updated to better match the spirit of the question. Please a comment if you have any suggestions.
|
2024-03-25T10:34:59
|
2024-05-30T15:39:11
|
2024-05-30T15:39:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk
|
Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024?
|
Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence. If Rafah is invaded in April, this market will resolve N/A. Please read the pinned comments and stay updated there.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-israel-invade-rafah-in-june-20)
|
2024-03-25T09:22:30
|
2024-05-16T21:47:40
|
2024-05-16T21:47:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R11xklhvs7X9dJRQO8Be
|
Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024?
|
Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If resolution is very murky as the month ends, up to a week will be taken after market close to wait for clearer evidence.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-israel-invade-rafah-in-may-202)
|
2024-03-25T09:21:13
|
2024-04-30T14:59:00
|
2024-04-30T15:49:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p6C7bfzNtuPXoxz4YGkO
|
Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy before all 2024 Presidential Election votes are submitted?
|
This market resolves YES if Donald Trump or his lawyers have filed for any form of bankruptcy as listed here: https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics as of the day after election day and there is no significant contention regarding that being true, or there is some shady rich person money strategy employed that is widely agreed to be equivalent to declaring bankruptcy (ie. Bailout, etc.) in the comments.
This market resolves NO if there is no contention over whether Donald Trump or his lawyers have done something equivalent to bankruptcy in the negatory direction.
This market resolves N/A if the contention over whether he has done so is too high for there to be a satisfactory justification for either above option.
|
2024-03-25T08:10:12
|
2024-11-06T21:59:00
|
2024-11-07T05:31:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O0KXOYyLehJ7biXIw6Mn
|
Will Liam Lawson drive in a race for Visa Cash App RB before the 2024 Formula 1 season is over?
|
For any reason. Must be a race, sprint race or race/sprint qualifying session, FP1/2/3 don’t count.
(This question was added after Lawson’s 2023 stint in the car - it’s meant to ask about the 2024 season.)
|
2024-03-25T07:31:48
|
2024-11-10T09:00:58
|
2024-11-10T09:00:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DYXxMSZJmen7bdaKEuBY
|
Will bitcoin be above $69696.96 at the end of April?
|
Nice?
Using price from Google
|
2024-03-25T07:21:35
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:30:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SJJz2u3sll5urK8VgLYK
|
Will Donald Trump be inside of a courtroom on Thursday, April 25th, 2024?
|
For any reasons whatsoever, will Donald Trump appear inside of a courtroom on Thursday, April 25th?
|
2024-03-25T07:21:09
|
2024-04-25T23:59:00
|
2024-04-26T05:07:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sRAoki530jK8aW2Wtn04
|
🏀 Will #1 Houston beat #4 Duke in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-25T06:36:41
|
2024-03-30T04:13:22
|
2024-03-30T04:13:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dQWHP6oBOiW8uFF9RBsR
|
🏀 Will #1 Purdue beat #5 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-25T06:36:20
|
2024-03-29T18:51:19
|
2024-03-29T18:51:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SEfI2VqTDlQZiTirtjKv
|
🏀 Will #2 Arizona beat #6 Clemson in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-25T06:29:39
|
2024-03-28T18:26:07
|
2024-03-28T18:26:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5tSKVP1DBcGCyGM8Hb97
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 25?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 25 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 25 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-03-24T23:18:56
|
2024-03-25T21:59:00
|
2024-03-25T22:33:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ok13zEdrTnxQqtY9Atmg
|
Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This is a copy of this Polymarket and will most likely resolve the same way; however if that market is obviously misresolved, this one will still resolve correctly according to my best judgment and factoring in comments.
|
2024-03-24T21:38:41
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:50:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K9nkWrU9SRwNAkRLFBb8
|
Will Lewis Hamilton score more points than George Russell at the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix?
|
Resolves YES if Lewis Hamilton outscores George Russell over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores a point, resolves based on classification order in the main race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-03-24T21:24:11
|
2024-04-21T08:17:45
|
2024-04-21T08:17:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o8uEMmNpxnnioqOaSbSJ
|
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix?
|
Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on April 21, 2024.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
|
2024-03-24T21:23:58
|
2024-04-21T07:13:33
|
2024-04-21T07:13:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FidniETrfth3rOEoxouL
|
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)?
|
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
|
2024-03-24T21:11:31
|
2024-04-07T00:03:27
|
2024-04-07T00:03:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qbYESfk3AYUcqrgYXvaI
|
Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030?
|
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 50% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have buy orders keeping the price above 50% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 50% for more than 24 continuous hours.
Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question. Your feedback is welcome in the comments.
As of market creation, our friends at Polymarket and Kalshi both have markets asking if OpenAI will announce that it has created Artificial General Intelligence in 2024. Currently, these markets are both at about 10% with thousands of dollars in volume and limit orders.
Future markets which are similar to these in criteria, quality, and trade volume will be added to this market description and will then also count for resolution here. If you know of any other real-money markets which should be added, please leave a comment below or message this account.
Currently eligible markets:
Polymarket - OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024?
Kalshi - OpenAI achieves AGI this year?
This market's close date is currently set for the end of 2024, but will be extended each year for one year until it resolves Yes or 2030 arrives and it resolves No.
See also:
@/ManifoldAI/when-will-a-real-money-prediction-m
@/ManifoldAI/when-will-a-real-money-prediction-m-277f6de51589
|
2024-03-24T20:20:25
|
2025-02-11T08:44:02
|
2025-02-11T08:44:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KsShsInz5r4pjWl7SIxF
|
Will there be a House vote on the Senate-passed Ukraine aid bill in April?
|
Specifically the Senate passed version, or something substantially similar to it. There is another Ukraine aid bill that's floating around the House which is structured as a loan, that one will not count.
McCaul says Johnson will put a bill on the floor after the recess but didn't specify which bill.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/24/ukraine-aid-bill-easter-mccaul-00148727
|
2024-03-24T17:39:44
|
2024-04-20T11:03:58
|
2024-04-20T11:03:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HMivV25yL6q3ONdTlnEo
|
Will Apple Vision Pro available outside of the US before the end of April 2024?
|
Resolves yes if it’s available for ordering in any country other than USA
|
2024-03-24T15:30:13
|
2024-04-30T06:59:00
|
2024-04-30T07:28:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rgG0lGSjSmvqYxQkhgzN
|
Will Donald Trump use his Trump Media shares before the end of the lockup period?
|
EDIT: See Ciuccio's comment below. There is an inadvertent ambiguity here, and to resolve it I will resolve the question strictly as originally stated in the operative language: this market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period. Even if those shares were not subject to a lockup provision.
Donald Trump's Trump Media & Technology Group will go public if the merger with Digital World Acquisition Corp. goes through. (This market will resolve N/A if it does not.) Trump will own nearly 60% of the shares in the public entity, which will trade under the ticker symbol "DJT." Currently, it is estimated that his stake in DJT will be worth billions of dollars.
Trump has a pressing need for cash, to make loans to his campaign if necessary, to fund his ongoing trials and appeals, and to pay damages or post bonds in cases that he has lost. But under the terms of the merger agreement, Trump is subject to a lockup term. For six months, he cannot sell any of those shares (or lend them, sell options on them, pledge them as collateral, or use them in any other way to get cash).
There is a great deal of speculation about whether Trump will find a way around the lockup period, such as asking the board of DWAC to grant him a waiver (https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/21/business/trump-truth-social-merger.html) or creatively interpreting the terms of the agreement (https://twitter.com/quantian1/status/1771343852856635533).
This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period.
(In the event a court blocks the transaction or the deal fails in some way, this market will resolve YES if contracts were signed or there is some other objective indicator that a firm deal was reached. It will resolve NO if there is merely talk of a deal or a promise to do a trade that never happens.)
I may have to use my discretion to resolve this question, and I will not trade in this market.
The lock up agreement: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1849635/000119312521308146/d230221dex102.htm
|
2024-03-24T15:22:15
|
2024-09-24T08:14:56
|
2024-09-24T08:14:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-anMzSVbTysyvyJZMbTCK
|
Will a Llama 3 models be released in April?
|
update: based on the original intent of the question and people's trading, my resolution criteria will resolve YES if either:
a 70b model or greater is released
two different model sizes are released, for example 7b and 13b
if only a 7b is released, or only 7b-chat and 7b, this will resolve NO
|
2024-03-24T14:16:05
|
2024-04-18T16:15:04
|
2024-04-18T16:15:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-80lrQvGqQBrOp9FZzvfs
|
🏀 Will #2 Marquette beat #11 NC State in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-24T12:53:39
|
2024-03-29T18:27:39
|
2024-03-29T18:27:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DsMXehh7Ii5iIiJ7SgjW
|
Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent?
|
Resolves YES if Robert Menendez appears on the NJ ballot for US Senator without a party affiliation. Otherwise, resolves NO.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/indicted-sen-bob-menendez-declines-reelection-as-democrat-may-run-as-independent-00148448
|
2024-03-24T11:21:21
|
2024-08-20T20:13:44
|
2024-08-20T20:13:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C539XJBsz3uEFjsDOAbR
|
Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 within 48 hours?
|
Must be called GPT-5
|
2024-03-24T10:32:43
|
2024-03-26T10:33:00
|
2024-03-26T11:35:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ULA2seXP2sb8JyO0Q3T6
|
🏀 Will #2 Iowa State beat #3 Illinois in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-24T06:14:17
|
2024-03-29T03:26:17
|
2024-03-29T03:26:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TIF3aujJ6ACuAYU8epiM
|
🏀 Will #2 Tennessee beat #3 Creighton in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-24T06:09:10
|
2024-03-30T04:13:30
|
2024-03-30T04:13:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1PCisX3lyr2mL4cdZsgY
|
Will Ethereum reach a new all time high by 08/08/2024?
|
Data from CoinmarketCap will be taken into account to resolve the market
|
2024-03-24T02:07:14
|
2024-08-08T11:14:00
|
2024-08-15T07:53:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eL4bn3N5Ed79xHAw7gYG
|
Will the Starship successfully execute a controlled re-entry during its fourth flight test?
|
Will be resolved after official confirmation of SpaceX. It resolves to true for a controlled re-entry of booster even if there is not a precise landing.
|
2024-03-24T01:37:54
|
2024-06-06T15:13:43
|
2024-06-06T15:13:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aUGTGSoAnkWLNUqfx1mZ
|
Will Russian missile hit NATO territory in 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_missile_explosion_in_Poland
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-poland-airspace-war-latest-lviv-b2517702.html
|
2024-03-24T00:30:51
|
2025-01-01T13:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:22:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DF6siYimEmdCnVJGBwDu
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 24?
|
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira |
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 24 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 24 2024
Recent Jimmy Facts
#47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley
#46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally.
#45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards.
#44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM.
#43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary.
#42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty.
#41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant.
#40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.)
#39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17).
#38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team.
#37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology.
This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
|
2024-03-23T22:37:33
|
2024-03-24T21:59:00
|
2024-03-24T23:18:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-89Uk67eIazV2utdiaXnJ
|
Will an 11th ranked team be in the men’s 2024 Final Four?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-23T19:12:46
|
2024-03-31T16:37:52
|
2024-03-31T16:37:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EVsZfKSs0ckwwEko6tbe
|
Will Star Wars: The Acolyte be liked by both fans and critics?
|
Context: The Acolyte Trailer Gets Huge Amount of YouTube Dislikes, Still Breaks Lucasfilm Record
More specifically, the Star Warstrailer, which has been viewed over 8.2 million times in three days, has gotten 165k likes and 366k dislikes. Meanwhile, the trailer has nevertheless surpassed 51.3 million views in 24 hours across all platforms, which was touted by StarWars.com as setting the new digital-only record of any Lucasfilm Disney+ series.
There’s a new Star Wars show and people are already upset. Will The Acolyte get a fresh rating (>=60%) on RottenTomatoes and an audience score at, or above 60%? This will be assessed 24hours after the final episode has aired.
Previous Star Wars shows, and how they would’ve resolved:
The Mandalorian: Yes
Ahsoka: Yes
Obi-Wan Kenobi: Yes (but just barely)
Andor: Yes
The Book of Boba Fett: No (Fans 53%)
Mega Market for the show is here:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/star-wars-the-acolyte-mega-market)
|
2024-03-23T18:17:31
|
2024-07-17T23:59:00
|
2024-07-18T02:58:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yDxUNFp4JexhMkeCh7t1
|
Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III?
|
This market resolves YES if Jimmy Carter dies before King Charles III. NO otherwise.
|
2024-03-23T17:27:16
|
2024-12-31T11:49:57
|
2024-12-31T11:49:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-elZc0TvxRMUHyOeoX7tt
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Spider-man Beyond the Spiderverse releases?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-23T12:18:07
|
2024-12-29T13:22:15
|
2024-12-29T13:22:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fbo97znHNFlRlUQcgOXa
|
Will the weights for Stable Diffusion 3 be released (or leaked) before April 30?
|
On March 15, then CEO of Stability AI Emad Mostaque announced that SD3 would have a full-release "next month".
However, after several high-profile departures culminating in Emad's resignation as CEO, there has been speculation that Stability is no longer committed to their previous open source strategy.
This question asks: will the weights for Stable Diffusion 3 (any version, of which there are multiple) be released by the end of April, 2024?
For the purpose of this question, it doesn't matter if the weights are officially released by Stability AI or leaked in some way. Even if they are leaked under another name (but given the parameters they strongly match what we expect for Stable Diffusion 3), this question will resolve positive so long as they are somewhere on the internet (bit-torrent, IPFS, the dark web) where a reasonably motivated person could download them.
|
2024-03-23T04:27:45
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T08:33:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VKRJAdhjuhGRZmbglX2T
|
Will terrorist attack in Moscow be used as a pretext to escalate the War in Ukraine?
|
The market will resolve as YES if within the next 30 days (until April 22nd) Russian authorities will use March 22nd terrorist attack in Moscow as a justification for an escalation of the war against Ukraine. This could include one of the following:
New mobilization (it can start more than 30 days from now, but needs to be announced within the next 30 days)
Attack on Ukraine using new types of weapons (e.g. nuclear or chemical)
Attack on Ukrainian cities or infrastructure at significantly higher volume than the previous ones (more than ~50 rockets in one day, please correct me in comments if this estimation is not correct)
Attack on any of the allies of Ukraine
The possible escalation has to be explicitly linked to the terrorist attack in an official statement of Russian president, Ministry of foreign affairs or a similar entity. An answer at a press conference counts. Speculations by Russian propagandists don't.
Related question:
@/OlegEterevsky/a-year-from-now-will-manifold-users
I do not bet on my own questions.
|
2024-03-23T03:54:30
|
2024-04-22T14:59:00
|
2024-04-23T01:57:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EiOP0PxYUlQIYnI0qBw9
|
Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-23T02:42:00
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T08:48:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C6GdKYQWN7X9WB0NULLs
|
Will Bitcoin hit $75K in April 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone.
|
2024-03-23T01:41:41
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T08:49:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qKRnrNesCOQNiQJS5I2W
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Tortured Poet's Department by Taylor Swift releases?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-23T00:24:20
|
2024-04-19T06:35:30
|
2024-04-19T06:35:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nH1mjb8MPZpwttvBtXBX
|
Will Lady Gaga sing an original song in Joker: Folie à Deux? 🃏🎤🎶
|
Context: ‘Joker 2’ Musical Details Revealed: At Least 15 Cover Songs, Original Tracks May Be Added (EXCLUSIVE)
However, there is a door open for an original song (or two) to be added to the final version. Details regarding who would pen the tracks, or sing the numbers are unknown.
Will Lady Gaga sing an original song in Joker: Folie à Deux?
An original song is defined as a song which did not exist before this movie. The song must be sung by Gaga, at least partially, in the feature runtime of the film (including opening credits, ending credits, and any after credit scenes). Shallow would’ve counted for A Star Is Born.
You can also bet on which existing songs will be featured in the film in Panfilo’s market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/which-songs-will-be-covered-for-jok)
|
2024-03-22T20:31:27
|
2024-10-03T21:41:15
|
2024-10-03T21:41:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hzyuooQ80IhrxsMA2kvc
|
Will Jimmy Carter see a ceasefire in Gaza? 🇮🇱🇵🇸🕊️
|
He really wants one.
Ceasefire’s gotta last for 24hours, with Jimmy alive for all of them. Otherwise, it’s sadly a NO.
This will extend as long as Ol’ Jim keeps holding on.
|
2024-03-22T19:22:29
|
2024-12-29T13:59:56
|
2024-12-29T13:59:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-glg8vtPHFQYFPxZDAENl
|
Will NVIDIA become the largest company in the world (by market cap) before the end of 2030?
|
If this happens briefly, before it is overtaken by another company, that counts, as "yes".
|
2024-03-22T18:55:05
|
2024-06-18T10:05:17
|
2024-06-18T10:05:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QfcNDeoMiicMRciQpstr
|
🏀 Will #5 San Diego State beat #13 Yale in the 2nd Round? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-22T17:29:10
|
2024-03-25T04:19:28
|
2024-03-25T04:19:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K2LEVCPjtSbO2wSBuxaw
|
The U.S. unemployment rate will surpass 4.5% in 2024.
|
YES: The reported U.S. unemployment rate will exceed 4.5% at some point in 2024.
NO: The reported U.S. unemployment rate will be 4.5% or less for all of 2024.
Will be resolved from https://www.bls.gov/cps/
|
2024-03-22T17:09:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-27T22:58:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8s6LfIjBiJiKE4dVAyxV
|
Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T16:47:16
|
2024-11-06T13:50:00
|
2024-11-14T23:01:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-69kTOtaIDlh4eBVMVzxJ
|
Will RFK Jr. reach 5 percent of the national popular vote in the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T16:05:35
|
2024-11-06T13:58:00
|
2024-11-12T08:07:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FTs5NlZnjbISUF9U8R7b
|
[Short Fuse] Will the Moscow concert hall terrorists be caught within 3 days?
|
There is a massive manhunt underway in Russia for those who were responsible for the Moscow terrorist attack (whoever they may be). If credible Western media sources report that ALL of the terrorists directly involved in the attack (the shooters themselves) have been taken into custody or killed within 72 hours of this market being created, resolves YES. If there no news regarding the status of all the terrorists within 3 days, resolves NO.
In case of a dispute (for example: Russia claims they killed all the terrorists, but Western sources haven't seen evidence it's true and ISIS denies it), the market close date may be extended beyond 3 days until clarity on the situation is established, but any actions taken outside of those 3 days won't count. So for example if Russia claims they captured the terrorists on day 2, but Western media only confirms it on day 5 (but confirms it happened on day 2), still resolves YES.
[tweet]
|
2024-03-22T14:53:15
|
2024-03-28T21:53:06
|
2024-03-28T21:53:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sg4t6ZsYr2udEYxJ24m8
|
Will Russia accuse Ukraine of being behind the Moscow Concert terrorist attack by the end of April?
|
Resolves yes if the Kremlin officially say the Ukrainian government was behind today's attack in Moscow? Resolves to NO if they just say the people behind it were pro-Ukraine but not affiliated with Ukraine or if the person who makes the claim is someone in the Russian government but is not Vladimir Putin, or an official statement from the Kremlin.
|
2024-03-22T14:15:10
|
2024-04-23T16:56:45
|
2024-04-26T15:30:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yCliHuKHlFX8o2NY4bcf
|
Will Catherine Princess of Wales be alive on the 1st of January 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T12:55:50
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-06T05:39:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE
|
Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T11:22:58
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:58:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sunZAgByldC6X08Yut09
|
Is the massive terror attack at the Moscow concert hall related to Ukraine?
|
If, within one month, credible reporting emerges from Western sources claiming that the terrorist attack at the Moscow concert hall is related to Ukraine, this market resolves YES. If there is no such news in one month, resolves NO. I'll have a generous interpretation of "related to Ukraine".
Related to Ukraine means:
Perpetrated by Ukrainian nationals, or agents of Ukraine in any way.
Financed by the Ukrainian government or pro-Ukraine organizations.
Carried out by people or an organization that is explicitly pro-Ukraine or anti-War in Russia.
Motivated by the Ukraine War, or an act of political protest either against it or for it.
[tweet]
|
2024-03-22T11:20:06
|
2024-04-21T19:56:10
|
2024-04-21T19:56:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BmEG7CTAyol2SAUpdNil
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of July?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T10:50:21
|
2024-07-30T21:01:40
|
2024-07-30T21:01:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-354DVfMGdTaWHyu4tabF
|
Will the next major announcement about Jimmy Carter's health be his death?
|
"Major" is subjective but to make things as clear as I can, anything serious for his age will count for a No. Falling on the floor and getting all bruised up or catching the flu would be major for him. I'm just trying to weed out someone trying to be like "oh they mentioned he was on meds we didn't know about before, that's an announcement about his health". If his death is announced along with another health event, that's a Yes. If he goes into a coma that eventually kills him, but the coma is announced first with some lag in between, that's a No.
|
2024-03-22T09:43:30
|
2024-12-29T16:11:20
|
2024-12-29T16:11:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AqhagKPK8YgmscxAbUPF
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of September?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T09:40:20
|
2024-09-30T20:59:00
|
2024-09-30T21:31:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-41CLAOVOqseotZlm6ha0
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of June?
|
Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of June? Resolves YES if he is, NO if he isn't.
|
2024-03-22T08:55:21
|
2024-06-30T10:19:32
|
2024-06-30T10:19:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nZQ4MO3MyG8TNoZyCGSC
|
Will reddit drop below $30 before the end of 2024?
|
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history
|
2024-03-22T06:52:21
|
2024-12-31T19:05:19
|
2024-12-31T19:05:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9JfRkTWUbbcTiPxpiZEo
|
Will any country switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China within one month of President Lai's inauguration?
|
Taiwan = ROC
China = PRC
Lai's inauguration is May 20th. This market is 'active' from April 20th to June 20th, inclusive.
|
2024-03-22T03:02:19
|
2024-06-21T08:59:00
|
2024-06-21T19:45:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KU66pE6ddjLwqCTQk03S
|
Will the official ChatGPT Twitter account post a tweet using standard capitalization and punctuation rules?
|
The official ChatGPT Twitter account @ChatGPTapp (https://twitter.com/ChatGPTapp/) uses informal and casual language in tweets. It's most recents tweets are:
it’s rude to put “quit yapping” in your custom instructions 🙄
brb gotta chat
This prediction market evaluates true if the account posts at least one tweet meeting all the following criteria within the next 30 days from the creation of this market:
The tweet must form a complete sentence of at least several words. Short quips or code snippets do not count.
The tweet must use standard English capitalization and punctuation rules (e.g., "I'm" instead of "i'm" or "Im", sentences must end with a proper punctuation mark).
|
2024-03-22T02:42:53
|
2024-04-21T13:59:00
|
2024-04-21T14:34:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uj3c8xounbUUYJTWucZC
|
Will David Cameron be the UK's Foreign Secretary on January 1st 2025?
|
Doesn't matter if it's because of a Tory win, a 'late' election, or because of a hung parliament, or because (as George Osborne has mischievously suggested) Keir Starmer might keep him on.
|
2024-03-22T01:02:23
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:13:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b0aTGEa8eMCL1vWY9mqt
|
Will r/place return for April Fool’s 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-22T00:26:29
|
2024-04-01T14:59:00
|
2024-04-01T23:04:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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