id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-1MaRUeKjxglmxjQNQGeN | "Oppenheimer" releases in Japan on March 29th. Will it outgross "Tenet" during its first weekend? (>$2.332M) | [Before betting, please read the description in full—international box office reporting can be unreliable, and I will resolve based on the linked source, whether or not other sources agree.]
Due to its sensitive subject matter, "Oppenheimer" (2023) did not initially release in Japan. However, after extensive discussio... | 2024-03-27T09:26:49 | 2024-04-05T05:44:23 | 2024-04-05T05:44:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TOpFp16jmWaHiTKgTy4r | Will Real Madrid win Champions League 2023/4? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-27T08:43:45 | 2024-06-01T14:08:22 | 2024-06-01T14:08:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iZJGP35kdgdvkSGD9hk6 | Will Donald Trump's twitter account be hacked by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-27T07:27:53 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T09:11:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Bq0SSlVPSI0COH5bSkVN | Will Donald Trump/Joe Biden get 300 electoral votes in the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-27T07:21:34 | 2024-11-07T14:59:00 | 2024-12-03T11:11:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1PUxmg2cTWZjcErCotru | Will DJT stock close at over $90 anytime before the end of the year 2024? | [image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason. | 2024-03-27T05:23:24 | 2024-12-30T21:15:57 | 2024-12-30T21:15:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3i58OeVHAY73DDByo3w5 | Will Truth Social shares (DJT) crash in value by the end of 2024? (A drop of 75% from their launch peak) | Donald Trump has succeeded in floating Truth Social on the stockmarket through a merger between DWAC (a SPAC set up for this purpose) with his Trump Media & Technology company.
Trump owes 60% of the company and you can see how the shares are doing here:
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/DJT:NASDAQ
Many people hav... | 2024-03-27T05:02:28 | 2024-08-28T10:36:17 | 2024-08-28T10:36:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f6JVVm023tvcT12Mcbii | Will Bitcoin hit $80K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-03-26T22:33:49 | 2024-04-30T21:36:00 | 2024-05-01T09:40:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6HzggZZXCNcIBYZA2tc2 | Will Bitcoin hit $95K in 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-26T22:31:04 | 2024-11-21T08:08:11 | 2024-11-21T08:08:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C1gsBdDLXane9HH1RRI8 | Will Bitcoin go below $58K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-26T22:28:04 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T08:46:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CMgUgGSVhQ0Df16JEHDS | Will Bitcoin go below $60K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-26T22:27:09 | 2024-04-18T21:10:43 | 2024-04-18T21:10:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K8E9M3ffJgT0AGxjXGNT | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 27? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-03-26T21:16:27 | 2024-03-27T21:03:31 | 2024-03-27T21:03:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uWIQgk2LDUduwqbMeiWo | ⚽ Will Brentford beat Manchester United during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Brentford vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Brentford has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time... | 2024-03-26T19:13:08 | 2024-03-30T16:00:00 | 2024-03-30T16:18:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3V9ub1s48BHE4yqmGEoh | ⚽ Will Bayern Munich beat Borussia Dortmund during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Bundesliga 🇩🇪 | ⚽ Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30
🏆 Competition: Bundesliga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Bayern Munich has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular ... | 2024-03-26T19:13:04 | 2024-03-30T13:30:00 | 2024-03-30T14:08:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-91GhuAcJwo3QET5BGlrS | ⚽ Will Tottenham beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Tottenham vs Luton
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Tottenham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppa... | 2024-03-26T19:12:55 | 2024-03-30T11:00:00 | 2024-03-30T14:08:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SF5N48EAmvWWLv3eWYFD | ⚽ Will Sheffield Utd beat Fulham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Sheffield Utd vs Fulham
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Sheffield Utd has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time pl... | 2024-03-26T19:12:53 | 2024-03-30T11:00:00 | 2024-03-30T14:08:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ChiwPbZs98oZr9E86exx | ⚽ Will Newcastle beat West Ham during regular time on Sat, Mar 30, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Newcastle vs West Ham
📅 Date: Saturday, March 30, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Newcastle has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus sto... | 2024-03-26T19:12:27 | 2024-03-30T08:30:00 | 2024-03-30T09:31:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aIzBIvTxtMMZynjbm80k | Will SilkSong be released before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-26T15:35:07 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T18:42:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-miHTnx4mPDi1M5dZ9PTR | A new gag order was issued on Trump in Judge Merchan’s Manhattan Court. Will Trump violate the order? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-26T13:50:50 | 2024-05-01T03:35:30 | 2024-05-01T03:35:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fEHup3Yk3mOU0At1ITSv | 🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $10,000/metric ton in 2024? | IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $10,000 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in ... | 2024-03-26T13:46:50 | 2025-01-28T10:23:16 | 2025-01-28T10:23:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SobDnoyz31EGeh2HS1qK | 🍫 Will cocoa prices reach $6,000/metric ton in 2024? | IT'S THE CHOCOPOCALYPSE! Cocoa prices are up 150% since a year and a half ago, and the chart is starting to look exponential.
[image]Resolves YES if the global price of cocoa, per metric ton, is reported as $6000 or higher for any month in 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will wait until all months are available in th... | 2024-03-26T13:46:02 | 2024-04-20T09:22:46 | 2024-04-20T09:22:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wNYcRF2ZvouoBcwf4LBr | Will DJT stock close at over $75 anytime before the end of the year 2024? | [image]Truth social stock (DJT) or the final stock ticker name. Resolves no if it is never listed if merger is not going through or whatever other reason. | 2024-03-26T13:18:26 | 2024-12-30T21:16:10 | 2024-12-30T21:16:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-72QBE6fD1vZWkek8ZDdl | Will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the USA 2024 presidential election is called? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-26T12:13:27 | 2024-05-30T14:20:01 | 2024-05-30T14:20:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cIvH02U41Qopz5d5IrsO | Will Bitcoin BTC reach $111,111 by 1/11/25? (January 11, 2025) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-26T09:44:44 | 2025-01-11T20:59:00 | 2025-01-13T00:09:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QPHqNibwpTkpxZJvjeCh | Will Donald Trump's hush-money trial (the Stormy Daniels trial) start on 15th April as planned? | Among Donald Trump's many legal troubles, he's due to stand trial for paying hush-money to a porn star from campaign funds.
The trail has been delayed multiple times, but most recently the judge has said that it will start on 15th April:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/25/trump-court-appearance-stormy-da... | 2024-03-26T08:49:35 | 2024-04-15T08:09:04 | 2024-04-15T08:09:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ujEXtuJc8eg5U5B3y4nR | Will Tyler Cowen use the word "Straussian" on any new episode of "Conversations with Tyler" before June 1st? | Tyler Cowen (GMU professor, prolific blogger, & podcaster) likes to use the (unusual) word "Straussian" in writing & conversation.
For example, from his November 2023 episode with John Gray:
COWEN: If you’re an honest reader of the book, you roll your eyes and say, “Oh, come on, is this really the message here, or i... | 2024-03-26T08:04:49 | 2024-06-01T06:37:06 | 2024-06-01T14:07:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fdjmwInz1F1lU5vmNA5k | Will Ethereum (ETH) reach a new all-time high before the end of the year? | [image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/ | 2024-03-26T07:45:15 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:33:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z61ZHdGPcBGFugVKwB18 | Will DJT outperform BTC in 2024? | At the end of 2024, will Trump Media & Technology (DJT) stock will have outperformed Bitcoin (BTC)?
Note: DJT IPO’d in March, so the YTD will be March - December, in comparison to BTC’s January - December.
You can also vote on the meme vs. the index version of this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will... | 2024-03-26T06:55:11 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-21T21:28:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1qyxFrgxdaLjcHF9JPsQ | Will Israel end the military conscription exemption for Haredi (ultra-Orthodox Jews) before the next general election? | Israel has one of the toughest set of rules around military conscription of any country in the world. Most Jewish citizens are eligible for national service, with men serving a minimum of 2 years 8 months and women serving a minimum of 2 years.
Since the founding of Israel, there has been an exemption for ultra-Orthod... | 2024-03-26T06:39:02 | 2024-08-19T12:53:11 | 2024-08-19T12:53:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7b94RaGb1Vnmg2xdmBOi | Will the Key Bridge be repaired and reopened within 6 weeks? | Last night, a container ship smashed into the Francis Scott Key bridge.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/francis-scott-key-bridge-baltimore-collapse-container-ship/
Last time a major transportation artery collapsed, our civilization magically managed to recover our ability to build things fast, and reopened a collapsed p... | 2024-03-26T04:15:23 | 2024-05-07T20:59:00 | 2024-05-08T03:38:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YEm7vYpaOXiNNxq3OUvk | Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse? | Will any new legislation be introduced in the wake of the Key Bridge collapse that has as a primary intent to prevent future incidents like the Key Bridge collapse?
This does NOT mean an aid package to baltimore or the affected area, it is something like maritime law changes in rivers to make it less likely for such a... | 2024-03-26T02:10:01 | 2024-12-17T23:06:49 | 2024-12-17T23:06:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IYJkNkyARYlNon0RFtRH | Will there be an ISIS terrorist attack in France in 2024? | France has recently raised its terror alert to the highest level following an attack at a Moscow concert hall, which resulted in at least 137 fatalities. The attack has been claimed by ISIS, and graphic footage has been released. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal cited the Islamic State’s claim of responsibility and ... | 2024-03-26T00:40:37 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:41:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-04oaMNcx0pNYjKgF4GLI | On the first anniversary of October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing? | On the first anniversary of the October 7th attacks, will the Israel-Hamas war still be ongoing (determined by Wikipedia status)?
See other war anniversary markets:
[markets] | 2024-03-25T22:28:28 | 2024-10-07T12:52:18 | 2024-10-07T12:52:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KhDPetLfM7Efa7sjXrF6 | Will "Dune: Part Two" gross >$11.5 million (domestic) during its 5th weekend (March 29-31)? | Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
This market resolves YES if the weekend gross for March 29 - 31 is >$11,500,500.
For example, last weekend (March 22 - 24) "Dune: Part Two" grossed $17,606,784. This is the equivalent number I will use.
Thus, $11.5M would be a roughly ~35% drop fr... | 2024-03-25T21:31:16 | 2024-04-02T06:21:36 | 2024-04-02T06:21:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HnDVpogGDsnTzqJrV9Fn | Will there be a large-scale bird flu outbreak in the US in 2024? (100+ cases) | Defined as 100 human cases or more, as reported on https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): Market will be resolved based on the CDC weekly report published approximately 5 days after the end of 2024. | 2024-03-25T19:00:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-13T16:26:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-znnjBkvjehRGydDpxGq4 | Will Jimmy Carter be elected president again before he dies? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-25T17:41:26 | 2024-12-29T16:15:13 | 2024-12-29T16:15:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yZn62LpAmvZOMJArGjl6 | Will New Glenn reach or exceed orbit before Starship? | Vehicle has to make at least one full orbit before deorbiting. Deliberate suborbital flights, even if they had the capability to go orbital (like the last Starship flight) don't count. | 2024-03-25T17:36:24 | 2025-01-16T11:07:29 | 2025-01-16T11:07:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DkglFDF7K7DOVhapb92J | Will Russia issue an ultimatum this year for a ceasefire agreement, using the threat of tactical nuclear weapons? | The bet resolves as "yes" if Putin or a high-ranking Russian official issues an official statement explicitly outlining the ultimatum's terms and the threat of tactical nuclear weapons until EOY 2024.
Possible resolution criterias:
Official Statements: Confirmation of official statements from the Kremlin or Russian g... | 2024-03-25T12:11:42 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:29:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X4o6m1sgkqk3bURKRa7r | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Trump found guilty of a crime? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-25T11:07:46 | 2024-05-30T14:14:33 | 2024-05-30T14:14:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RLIrcGWRup1iIc74ritL | Will Trump be found guilty of at least 10 of the 34 felony counts against him in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial? | Resolves YES if 10 or more of the counts against him are found GUILTY | 2024-03-25T10:43:27 | 2024-05-30T14:12:01 | 2024-05-30T14:12:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Vv5GE7f7kDoMrYMCcYz | Will any of the 3 main candidates for president drop out or be forced out from running by the end of April? | Donald Trump, Joe Biden, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. are the three main contenders for President of the United States. Will any of them no longer be running by the end of April 2024?
Please note the following ways in which this question may resolve:
YES: a candidate voluntarily drops out (suspends campaign)
YES: a ca... | 2024-03-25T10:42:56 | 2024-04-30T19:05:07 | 2024-04-30T19:05:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-76LbHWetZ0pDRgEfRAJX | Will Trump be found guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial? | Will Trump be found guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts in the NY Stormy Daniels hush money trial? Open until case is over.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stormy_Daniels%E2%80%93Donald_Trump_scandal | 2024-03-25T10:42:46 | 2024-05-30T14:10:35 | 2024-05-30T14:10:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GWBL9o634N8NvpZ5u5Zs | Will Donald Trump's Stormy Daniels/Hush Money felony trial conclude before Election Day 2024? | The Trial's start date has been set for April 15th
The presumptive Republican presidential nominee is facing 34 felony counts of falsifying New York business records in order to cover up a $130,000 hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels, who has said she had a sexual encounter with Trump. Trump has de... | 2024-03-25T10:34:59 | 2024-05-30T15:39:11 | 2024-05-30T15:39:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aRuklZCAHScS9FHllksk | Will Israel invade Rafah in May 2024? | Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If re... | 2024-03-25T09:22:30 | 2024-05-16T21:47:40 | 2024-05-16T21:47:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R11xklhvs7X9dJRQO8Be | Will Israel invade Rafah in April 2024? | Resolves as Yes if an official IDF spokesperson declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah en masse in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count, only a large scale clearing operation. If there is no announcement by the IDF but there is overwhelming video evidence, that will be sufficient for Yes. If re... | 2024-03-25T09:21:13 | 2024-04-30T14:59:00 | 2024-04-30T15:49:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p6C7bfzNtuPXoxz4YGkO | Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy before all 2024 Presidential Election votes are submitted? | This market resolves YES if Donald Trump or his lawyers have filed for any form of bankruptcy as listed here: https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics as of the day after election day and there is no significant contention regarding that being true, or there is some shady rich person money s... | 2024-03-25T08:10:12 | 2024-11-06T21:59:00 | 2024-11-07T05:31:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O0KXOYyLehJ7biXIw6Mn | Will Liam Lawson drive in a race for Visa Cash App RB before the 2024 Formula 1 season is over? | For any reason. Must be a race, sprint race or race/sprint qualifying session, FP1/2/3 don’t count.
(This question was added after Lawson’s 2023 stint in the car - it’s meant to ask about the 2024 season.) | 2024-03-25T07:31:48 | 2024-11-10T09:00:58 | 2024-11-10T09:00:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DYXxMSZJmen7bdaKEuBY | Will bitcoin be above $69696.96 at the end of April? | Nice?
Using price from Google | 2024-03-25T07:21:35 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-30T21:30:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SJJz2u3sll5urK8VgLYK | Will Donald Trump be inside of a courtroom on Thursday, April 25th, 2024? | For any reasons whatsoever, will Donald Trump appear inside of a courtroom on Thursday, April 25th? | 2024-03-25T07:21:09 | 2024-04-25T23:59:00 | 2024-04-26T05:07:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sRAoki530jK8aW2Wtn04 | 🏀 Will #1 Houston beat #4 Duke in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-25T06:36:41 | 2024-03-30T04:13:22 | 2024-03-30T04:13:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dQWHP6oBOiW8uFF9RBsR | 🏀 Will #1 Purdue beat #5 Gonzaga in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-25T06:36:20 | 2024-03-29T18:51:19 | 2024-03-29T18:51:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SEfI2VqTDlQZiTirtjKv | 🏀 Will #2 Arizona beat #6 Clemson in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-25T06:29:39 | 2024-03-28T18:26:07 | 2024-03-28T18:26:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5tSKVP1DBcGCyGM8Hb97 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 25? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-03-24T23:18:56 | 2024-03-25T21:59:00 | 2024-03-25T22:33:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ok13zEdrTnxQqtY9Atmg | Will OpenAI announce it has achieved AGI in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a c... | 2024-03-24T21:38:41 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T04:50:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K9nkWrU9SRwNAkRLFBb8 | Will Lewis Hamilton score more points than George Russell at the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Lewis Hamilton outscores George Russell over the whole weekend, including sprint races. Resolves NO if they score the same non-zero number of points. If neither driver scores a point, resolves based on classification order in the main race.
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subj... | 2024-03-24T21:24:11 | 2024-04-21T08:17:45 | 2024-04-21T08:17:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8uEMmNpxnnioqOaSbSJ | Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix? | Must win the actual race (not a sprint race). The race will take place on April 21, 2024.
If a driver does not take part in a race weekend (i.e. a replacement has been announced before the Thursday press conference), question will resolve N/A.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.g... | 2024-03-24T21:23:58 | 2024-04-21T07:13:33 | 2024-04-21T07:13:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FidniETrfth3rOEoxouL | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix (Suzuka)? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change. | 2024-03-24T21:11:31 | 2024-04-07T00:03:27 | 2024-04-07T00:03:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qbYESfk3AYUcqrgYXvaI | Will a high-volume prediction market expect OpenAI to create AGI before 2030? | Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 50% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
To ... | 2024-03-24T20:20:25 | 2025-02-11T08:44:02 | 2025-02-11T08:44:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KsShsInz5r4pjWl7SIxF | Will there be a House vote on the Senate-passed Ukraine aid bill in April? | Specifically the Senate passed version, or something substantially similar to it. There is another Ukraine aid bill that's floating around the House which is structured as a loan, that one will not count.
McCaul says Johnson will put a bill on the floor after the recess but didn't specify which bill.
https://www.poli... | 2024-03-24T17:39:44 | 2024-04-20T11:03:58 | 2024-04-20T11:03:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HMivV25yL6q3ONdTlnEo | Will Apple Vision Pro available outside of the US before the end of April 2024? | Resolves yes if it’s available for ordering in any country other than USA | 2024-03-24T15:30:13 | 2024-04-30T06:59:00 | 2024-04-30T07:28:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rgG0lGSjSmvqYxQkhgzN | Will Donald Trump use his Trump Media shares before the end of the lockup period? | EDIT: See Ciuccio's comment below. There is an inadvertent ambiguity here, and to resolve it I will resolve the question strictly as originally stated in the operative language: this market will resolve YES if Donald Trump transacts any DJT shares before the end of the nominal lockup period. Even if those shares were n... | 2024-03-24T15:22:15 | 2024-09-24T08:14:56 | 2024-09-24T08:14:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-anMzSVbTysyvyJZMbTCK | Will a Llama 3 models be released in April? | update: based on the original intent of the question and people's trading, my resolution criteria will resolve YES if either:
a 70b model or greater is released
two different model sizes are released, for example 7b and 13b
if only a 7b is released, or only 7b-chat and 7b, this will resolve NO | 2024-03-24T14:16:05 | 2024-04-18T16:15:04 | 2024-04-18T16:15:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-80lrQvGqQBrOp9FZzvfs | 🏀 Will #2 Marquette beat #11 NC State in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-24T12:53:39 | 2024-03-29T18:27:39 | 2024-03-29T18:27:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DsMXehh7Ii5iIiJ7SgjW | Will NJ Senator Bob Menendez run for re-election an independent? | Resolves YES if Robert Menendez appears on the NJ ballot for US Senator without a party affiliation. Otherwise, resolves NO.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/21/indicted-sen-bob-menendez-declines-reelection-as-democrat-may-run-as-independent-00148448 | 2024-03-24T11:21:21 | 2024-08-20T20:13:44 | 2024-08-20T20:13:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C539XJBsz3uEFjsDOAbR | Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 within 48 hours? | Must be called GPT-5 | 2024-03-24T10:32:43 | 2024-03-26T10:33:00 | 2024-03-26T11:35:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ULA2seXP2sb8JyO0Q3T6 | 🏀 Will #2 Iowa State beat #3 Illinois in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-24T06:14:17 | 2024-03-29T03:26:17 | 2024-03-29T03:26:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TIF3aujJ6ACuAYU8epiM | 🏀 Will #2 Tennessee beat #3 Creighton in the Sweet 16? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-24T06:09:10 | 2024-03-30T04:13:30 | 2024-03-30T04:13:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1PCisX3lyr2mL4cdZsgY | Will Ethereum reach a new all time high by 08/08/2024? | Data from CoinmarketCap will be taken into account to resolve the market | 2024-03-24T02:07:14 | 2024-08-08T11:14:00 | 2024-08-15T07:53:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eL4bn3N5Ed79xHAw7gYG | Will the Starship successfully execute a controlled re-entry during its fourth flight test? | Will be resolved after official confirmation of SpaceX. It resolves to true for a controlled re-entry of booster even if there is not a precise landing. | 2024-03-24T01:37:54 | 2024-06-06T15:13:43 | 2024-06-06T15:13:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aUGTGSoAnkWLNUqfx1mZ | Will Russian missile hit NATO territory in 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_missile_explosion_in_Poland
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-ukraine-poland-airspace-war-latest-lviv-b2517702.html | 2024-03-24T00:30:51 | 2025-01-01T13:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:22:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DF6siYimEmdCnVJGBwDu | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 24? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Prob at some point.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools ... | 2024-03-23T22:37:33 | 2024-03-24T21:59:00 | 2024-03-24T23:18:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-89Uk67eIazV2utdiaXnJ | Will an 11th ranked team be in the men’s 2024 Final Four? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}, {'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-23T19:12:46 | 2024-03-31T16:37:52 | 2024-03-31T16:37:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EVsZfKSs0ckwwEko6tbe | Will Star Wars: The Acolyte be liked by both fans and critics? | Context: The Acolyte Trailer Gets Huge Amount of YouTube Dislikes, Still Breaks Lucasfilm Record
More specifically, the Star Warstrailer, which has been viewed over 8.2 million times in three days, has gotten 165k likes and 366k dislikes. Meanwhile, the trailer has nevertheless surpassed 51.3 million views in 24 hours... | 2024-03-23T18:17:31 | 2024-07-17T23:59:00 | 2024-07-18T02:58:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yDxUNFp4JexhMkeCh7t1 | Will Jimmy Carter die before King Charles III? | This market resolves YES if Jimmy Carter dies before King Charles III. NO otherwise. | 2024-03-23T17:27:16 | 2024-12-31T11:49:57 | 2024-12-31T11:49:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-elZc0TvxRMUHyOeoX7tt | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Spider-man Beyond the Spiderverse releases? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-23T12:18:07 | 2024-12-29T13:22:15 | 2024-12-29T13:22:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fbo97znHNFlRlUQcgOXa | Will the weights for Stable Diffusion 3 be released (or leaked) before April 30? | On March 15, then CEO of Stability AI Emad Mostaque announced that SD3 would have a full-release "next month".
However, after several high-profile departures culminating in Emad's resignation as CEO, there has been speculation that Stability is no longer committed to their previous open source strategy.
This questio... | 2024-03-23T04:27:45 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T08:33:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VKRJAdhjuhGRZmbglX2T | Will terrorist attack in Moscow be used as a pretext to escalate the War in Ukraine? | The market will resolve as YES if within the next 30 days (until April 22nd) Russian authorities will use March 22nd terrorist attack in Moscow as a justification for an escalation of the war against Ukraine. This could include one of the following:
New mobilization (it can start more than 30 days from now, but needs ... | 2024-03-23T03:54:30 | 2024-04-22T14:59:00 | 2024-04-23T01:57:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EiOP0PxYUlQIYnI0qBw9 | Will Bitcoin dip to $55K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-23T02:42:00 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T08:48:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C6GdKYQWN7X9WB0NULLs | Will Bitcoin hit $75K in April 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
Price of Bitcoin will be considered in Pacific Timezone. | 2024-03-23T01:41:41 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T08:49:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qKRnrNesCOQNiQJS5I2W | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the day Tortured Poet's Department by Taylor Swift releases? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-23T00:24:20 | 2024-04-19T06:35:30 | 2024-04-19T06:35:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nH1mjb8MPZpwttvBtXBX | Will Lady Gaga sing an original song in Joker: Folie à Deux? 🃏🎤🎶 | Context: ‘Joker 2’ Musical Details Revealed: At Least 15 Cover Songs, Original Tracks May Be Added (EXCLUSIVE)
However, there is a door open for an original song (or two) to be added to the final version. Details regarding who would pen the tracks, or sing the numbers are unknown.
Will Lady Gaga sing an original song... | 2024-03-22T20:31:27 | 2024-10-03T21:41:15 | 2024-10-03T21:41:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hzyuooQ80IhrxsMA2kvc | Will Jimmy Carter see a ceasefire in Gaza? 🇮🇱🇵🇸🕊️ | He really wants one.
Ceasefire’s gotta last for 24hours, with Jimmy alive for all of them. Otherwise, it’s sadly a NO.
This will extend as long as Ol’ Jim keeps holding on. | 2024-03-22T19:22:29 | 2024-12-29T13:59:56 | 2024-12-29T13:59:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-glg8vtPHFQYFPxZDAENl | Will NVIDIA become the largest company in the world (by market cap) before the end of 2030? | If this happens briefly, before it is overtaken by another company, that counts, as "yes". | 2024-03-22T18:55:05 | 2024-06-18T10:05:17 | 2024-06-18T10:05:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QfcNDeoMiicMRciQpstr | 🏀 Will #5 San Diego State beat #13 Yale in the 2nd Round? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-22T17:29:10 | 2024-03-25T04:19:28 | 2024-03-25T04:19:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K2LEVCPjtSbO2wSBuxaw | The U.S. unemployment rate will surpass 4.5% in 2024. | YES: The reported U.S. unemployment rate will exceed 4.5% at some point in 2024.
NO: The reported U.S. unemployment rate will be 4.5% or less for all of 2024.
Will be resolved from https://www.bls.gov/cps/ | 2024-03-22T17:09:11 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-27T22:58:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8s6LfIjBiJiKE4dVAyxV | Will all third parties reach a combined 5 percent nationally in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T16:47:16 | 2024-11-06T13:50:00 | 2024-11-14T23:01:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-69kTOtaIDlh4eBVMVzxJ | Will RFK Jr. reach 5 percent of the national popular vote in the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T16:05:35 | 2024-11-06T13:58:00 | 2024-11-12T08:07:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FTs5NlZnjbISUF9U8R7b | [Short Fuse] Will the Moscow concert hall terrorists be caught within 3 days? | There is a massive manhunt underway in Russia for those who were responsible for the Moscow terrorist attack (whoever they may be). If credible Western media sources report that ALL of the terrorists directly involved in the attack (the shooters themselves) have been taken into custody or killed within 72 hours of this... | 2024-03-22T14:53:15 | 2024-03-28T21:53:06 | 2024-03-28T21:53:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sg4t6ZsYr2udEYxJ24m8 | Will Russia accuse Ukraine of being behind the Moscow Concert terrorist attack by the end of April? | Resolves yes if the Kremlin officially say the Ukrainian government was behind today's attack in Moscow? Resolves to NO if they just say the people behind it were pro-Ukraine but not affiliated with Ukraine or if the person who makes the claim is someone in the Russian government but is not Vladimir Putin, or an offici... | 2024-03-22T14:15:10 | 2024-04-23T16:56:45 | 2024-04-26T15:30:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yCliHuKHlFX8o2NY4bcf | Will Catherine Princess of Wales be alive on the 1st of January 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T12:55:50 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-06T05:39:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-e6Kis76ijStBS5LUeVUE | Will Noam Chomsky be alive at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T11:22:58 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:58:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sunZAgByldC6X08Yut09 | Is the massive terror attack at the Moscow concert hall related to Ukraine? | If, within one month, credible reporting emerges from Western sources claiming that the terrorist attack at the Moscow concert hall is related to Ukraine, this market resolves YES. If there is no such news in one month, resolves NO. I'll have a generous interpretation of "related to Ukraine".
Related to Ukraine means:... | 2024-03-22T11:20:06 | 2024-04-21T19:56:10 | 2024-04-21T19:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BmEG7CTAyol2SAUpdNil | Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of July? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T10:50:21 | 2024-07-30T21:01:40 | 2024-07-30T21:01:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-354DVfMGdTaWHyu4tabF | Will the next major announcement about Jimmy Carter's health be his death? | "Major" is subjective but to make things as clear as I can, anything serious for his age will count for a No. Falling on the floor and getting all bruised up or catching the flu would be major for him. I'm just trying to weed out someone trying to be like "oh they mentioned he was on meds we didn't know about before, t... | 2024-03-22T09:43:30 | 2024-12-29T16:11:20 | 2024-12-29T16:11:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AqhagKPK8YgmscxAbUPF | Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of September? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T09:40:20 | 2024-09-30T20:59:00 | 2024-09-30T21:31:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-41CLAOVOqseotZlm6ha0 | Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of June? | Will Mike Johnson still be speaker of the house at the end of June? Resolves YES if he is, NO if he isn't. | 2024-03-22T08:55:21 | 2024-06-30T10:19:32 | 2024-06-30T10:19:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nZQ4MO3MyG8TNoZyCGSC | Will reddit drop below $30 before the end of 2024? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/RDDT/history
| 2024-03-22T06:52:21 | 2024-12-31T19:05:19 | 2024-12-31T19:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9JfRkTWUbbcTiPxpiZEo | Will any country switch diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China within one month of President Lai's inauguration? | Taiwan = ROC
China = PRC
Lai's inauguration is May 20th. This market is 'active' from April 20th to June 20th, inclusive. | 2024-03-22T03:02:19 | 2024-06-21T08:59:00 | 2024-06-21T19:45:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KU66pE6ddjLwqCTQk03S | Will the official ChatGPT Twitter account post a tweet using standard capitalization and punctuation rules? | The official ChatGPT Twitter account @ChatGPTapp (https://twitter.com/ChatGPTapp/) uses informal and casual language in tweets. It's most recents tweets are:
it’s rude to put “quit yapping” in your custom instructions 🙄
brb gotta chat
This prediction market evaluates true if the account posts at least one tweet mee... | 2024-03-22T02:42:53 | 2024-04-21T13:59:00 | 2024-04-21T14:34:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uj3c8xounbUUYJTWucZC | Will David Cameron be the UK's Foreign Secretary on January 1st 2025? | Doesn't matter if it's because of a Tory win, a 'late' election, or because of a hung parliament, or because (as George Osborne has mischievously suggested) Keir Starmer might keep him on. | 2024-03-22T01:02:23 | 2024-12-31T07:59:00 | 2025-01-01T13:13:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-b0aTGEa8eMCL1vWY9mqt | Will r/place return for April Fool’s 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-22T00:26:29 | 2024-04-01T14:59:00 | 2024-04-01T23:04:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.