id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-evqBu2pwGTpA97STPo9D | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 22? | Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never.
Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Da... | 2024-03-21T22:38:54 | 2024-03-22T21:59:00 | 2024-03-22T21:59:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d0BkGDeC5KxglC73f8RV | Will Bitcoin BTC reach $77777 by 7/7? (July 7th) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-21T21:36:31 | 2024-07-07T18:39:42 | 2024-07-07T18:39:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5hJBtNXExI6Uiw4AFIP9 | Will Bitcoin BTC reach $99999 by 9/9? (September 9th) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-21T21:27:26 | 2024-09-09T20:59:00 | 2024-09-09T21:10:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G4C10Cac9iSGtu953iA3 | Will USA beat Mexico? ⚽ Concacaf Nations League Final |
[image]Winner of the final. Includes extra-time and penalty shootout if applicable. | 2024-03-21T21:10:43 | 2024-03-24T20:12:48 | 2024-03-24T20:12:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCVmd4xx2NIrXxhN9h4r | Will Lex Fridman interview Ilya Sutskever before the end of 2024? | Lex Fridman has to release a video on his YouTube channel @lexfridman with Ilya to make the question to be resolved as YES | 2024-03-21T17:26:26 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T08:44:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IDKcDPk3XCzU8Dqcn7to | ⚽ Will Sweden beat Albania during regular time on Mon, Mar 25, 2024? Friendlies 🌎 | ⚽ Sweden vs Albania
📅 Date: Monday, March 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:00
🏆 Competition: Friendlies
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Sweden has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
-... | 2024-03-21T17:03:22 | 2024-03-25T14:00:00 | 2024-03-25T20:39:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-roHuBO1MwtkPkDAf7k8U | 🏀 Will #1 North Carolina beat #9 Michigan St. in the 2nd Round? (Men's March Madness 2024) | https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf. | 2024-03-21T14:43:17 | 2024-03-23T17:45:45 | 2024-03-23T17:45:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-URMojc3rDpUpdrJKlrza | Biden has taken the lead in the Economist polling average. Will Trump retake the lead in March? | [tweet]The Economist's Trump vs Biden polling average was updated today, March 21st, and shows that their average of the polls as of March 17th was Biden 45%, Trump 44%.
Will Trump retake the lead before the end of the month?
If the average for any day from March 18th-March 31st shows Trump ahead of Biden, this marke... | 2024-03-21T13:26:24 | 2024-03-27T12:25:23 | 2024-03-27T12:25:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tNXLHEkqRT1dGcjTpxET | Will the next GPT model be released before the 2024 USA Presidential Election? | Some say that OpenAI will not release any new models until after the Election is over due to fears of AI content being used in an adversarial way. If OpenAI releases a new major or minor release of the GPT model (assuming major.minor making scheme, then GPT 4.X, GPT 5, etc...) prior or on election day, this will be res... | 2024-03-21T08:30:32 | 2024-09-12T15:41:11 | 2024-09-12T15:41:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jxxjNUBYse4ZVPlA2L7z | Will the opposition in the UK parliament be a party other than the Conservative Party after the next election? | Resolves yes if the second largest party is not the Conservative Party,
Otherwise no.
| 2024-03-21T07:20:33 | 2024-07-05T21:13:58 | 2024-07-05T21:13:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X6z4W0MyUb2HnxIRCl1b | Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14? | This market resolves based on whether by July 14, 2024 at least 2 major US news media outlets (see list below) publish articles reporting on Rudyard Lynch's ('Whatifathis') prediction of the US collapsing into a new civil war in 2024.
Resolution will be based on whether any of these media outlets publish articles in... | 2024-03-21T04:45:08 | 2024-07-14T21:59:00 | 2024-07-15T05:16:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NGh50zOsSf6vBbHB5keh | Will Adobe release a generative AI video tool in Adobe Summit 2024? | Adobe Summit 2024, scheduled for March 26-28 in Las Vegas, is a premier event for Adobe's major announcements on its suite of products and services. This market aims to predict whether Adobe will announce the launch of a new generative AI product for text to video creation | 2024-03-21T04:02:58 | 2024-03-29T08:59:00 | 2024-03-29T09:41:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zdNX3v9BwBVuOHQA1Q8D | Will Israel go to elections before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-21T03:29:09 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2025-01-05T14:02:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XsVQryRxeiu45lZoZ8Fw | Will Reform UK poll at 20% or above before the next general election? | Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 10% to 15% for the past few weeks and hit a record high of 15% with Yougov today:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will they poll at 20% or above before the general election?
... | 2024-03-21T03:15:44 | 2024-06-19T23:33:04 | 2024-06-19T23:33:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lCQDeW1W7fzo8Yzdc7ZE | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before June 13, 2024? | Upcoming Fed meetings scheduled for April 30/May 1 and June 11/12. | 2024-03-20T23:53:18 | 2024-06-13T20:52:16 | 2024-06-13T20:52:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DXZL1ZDLe0eqAGtJsEg9 | Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2026? | Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number
The record is currently held by 2^(82,589,933)−1 with 24,862,048 digits, found by GIMPS in December 2018. | 2024-03-20T23:43:17 | 2024-10-21T08:44:06 | 2024-10-21T08:44:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-05Si5MYIS18ZMObRHanQ | Will Tesla unveil a quadruped robot in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-20T23:17:47 | 2024-12-31T02:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:10:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SSonX1RWLXTTqozO7aOQ | Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 1st 2024? | Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos | 2024-03-20T21:01:42 | 2024-04-01T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T21:07:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NeCGQmwpPSdpOEJZ6XH7 | Will S&P500 hit $5400 before $5000? | Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves Yes if S&P500 hit $5400 first
Resolves No if S&P500 hit $5000 first
Market close date will be extended as needed. | 2024-03-20T17:28:44 | 2024-04-19T20:59:00 | 2024-04-20T16:55:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2HRGe3xyflE4lnHKnrKh | Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before Bitcoin reaches $100K? | Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Size_of_Wikipedia | 2024-03-20T16:03:28 | 2024-12-04T19:59:02 | 2024-12-04T19:59:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NZrQI7zSgOy9gLqLqwDG | Will a specific AI image or video model be mentioned by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-20T15:53:25 | 2024-10-27T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:40:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JSiX6Bv5MjrTzAQ1uxh9 | Will "OpenAI" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024? | Including the moderators | 2024-03-20T15:52:00 | 2024-10-31T20:59:00 | 2024-11-09T16:40:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nWXoq3dzKAxsoa5mPsKb | Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith? | On his NOAHPINION blog post Feb 12, 2024, Noah Smith writes:
. . .
When I write about world affairs, I tend to use some terms like “New Axis” and “Cold War 2” might seem melodramatic. But my purpose in using those terms isn’t to rile people up or scare them; it’s because I think they effectively describe what’s going... | 2024-03-20T13:28:12 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:09:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kS0srjwWulV7SlLAVXfh | Will Fani Willis be disqualified from the Trump Fulton County case by the Georgia Court of Appeals? | This market resolves to YES if Fani Willis is disqualified by the Georgia Court of Appeals. Otherwise this market resolves to NO. | 2024-03-20T13:15:01 | 2024-12-30T07:31:27 | 2024-12-30T07:31:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BtglLNaU4xhmq9knER7R | Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Having 3 Rate Cuts During 2024? | Will The FOMC Stay With Their Statement Of 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?
Resolution:
Resolves YES If They Cut 3 Times
Resolves NO If They Cut 1, 2, 4 or more.
CONTEXT:
Fed holds rates steady but indicates three cuts coming sometime this year
[image]CLARIFICATIONS:
03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies... | 2024-03-20T12:25:47 | 2024-12-18T11:00:00 | 2024-12-18T11:39:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ECN5IHMkCLKmrJwKbG3X | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 6th, Israel time? | End of day Israel time
both sides must agree | 2024-03-20T12:02:32 | 2024-05-06T13:59:00 | 2024-05-06T18:45:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lEuWakbGqlmAh1hCKp7v | Will a federal election be called in Canada before the end of 2024? | Canada is a parliamentary democracy and an election can be called at any time by the party in government, or by Parliament through a vote of no confidence.
The next federal election could happen as late as 20 Oct 2025, and could begin as few as 36 days before then. That would make 14 Sep 2025 the latest possible date ... | 2024-03-20T10:03:30 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:49:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZLnXae9dXnTryLWWScUi | Will Donald Trump select a running mate for VP prior to July 15, 2024? | Official Campaign announcement of a VP prior to 7/15/24, resolves YES | 2024-03-20T08:42:56 | 2024-07-15T11:35:08 | 2024-07-15T11:35:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0ODVlhiUzgdgx1l4KEfI | Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims? | Link to BusinessInsider's Article: https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3
The generative AI company helmed by Sam Altman is on track to put out GPT-5 sometime mid-year, likely during summer, according to two people familiar with the company.
Some enterprise customers have recently r... | 2024-03-20T07:13:37 | 2024-09-01T06:59:00 | 2024-09-01T13:48:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-blhlfiVRNfMJe1oaCEyw | Will Joe Biden still be alive when September ends? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-20T07:05:51 | 2024-09-30T14:59:00 | 2024-09-30T15:15:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-16QV6JcKk82jsJ9AvXze | Will Joe Biden still be alive by the end of July? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-20T07:04:32 | 2024-07-31T14:59:00 | 2024-08-01T01:18:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2IB5FHx0DcUYauNfkBQv | Will Joe Biden still be alive by end of May? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-20T07:02:45 | 2024-05-31T14:59:00 | 2024-05-31T15:07:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dpTKFFqG1i5LTzlFcy7n | Will the US presidential election (2024) be postponed? | The 2024 presidential election will take place on November 5.
If this is changed to a date later than November 5, then that resolves this market to yes. | 2024-03-20T05:28:00 | 2024-11-06T09:09:05 | 2024-11-06T09:09:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wzcpS2Mml8VT9ZOFByyp | Will King Charles visit Australia in 2024? | King Charles is reportedly planning a trip to Australia in 2024. Will it go ahead?
Resolves YES if King Charles III is physically present in Australia at any point in 2024, local time wherever he is.
Context:
King Charles and Queen Camilla's 'possible' Australia tour plans underway
A royal tour is being planned fo... | 2024-03-20T03:28:25 | 2024-10-21T03:55:04 | 2024-10-21T03:55:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8v8iyrv0l53M1plgSMoD | Will Bitcoin reach $80K within a week before or after the 4th Bitcoin halving? | Expected to happen this year
See: @/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-100k-within-a-we | 2024-03-20T00:05:03 | 2024-04-26T17:25:47 | 2024-04-26T17:25:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I8TXThgluPFRx9knaMo4 | ✡️ Will there be a significant migration of Jewish voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in 2024? | As Biden walks back some support for Israel, and Chuck Schumer calls for new elections, some American Jewish voters are looking to the Republican Party as a viable option in the 2024 elections. Trump has even weighed in. In the past, Jews have been overwhelmingly liberal and democratic.
Will the comments of those in t... | 2024-03-19T23:07:27 | 2024-11-26T11:14:45 | 2024-11-26T11:14:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ivf05W6uuuBkQMckKGdJ | Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 200,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)? | The United States has a recent history of extremely close presidential elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 80,000 votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Washington Post).
In 2000, George Bush famously won against Al Gore by only a few hundred votes in the state of F... | 2024-03-19T22:51:09 | 2024-12-11T23:59:00 | 2024-12-12T11:23:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8v6xxV3n1ZVMHGJLKOSk | Is businessinsider.com's GPT-5 article legit? | Resolves YES if OpenAI releases GPT-5 in one of the months April through September, 2024 and the model includes "the ability to call AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks autonomously".
It has to be called GPT-5.
Here's the article:
https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-20... | 2024-03-19T21:15:00 | 2024-10-01T03:59:00 | 2024-10-01T04:00:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ltb2WMaq7TY4j9uCNEPg | Will a Boeing-built airplane crash by the end of 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T20:52:31 | 2024-05-09T10:45:28 | 2024-05-09T10:45:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1gLLUvvhrVZyOAOiP0G3 | Will Lex Fridman reach 4M subscribers in April 2024? | Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/lex_fridman/monthly | 2024-03-19T19:33:44 | 2024-05-01T14:59:00 | 2024-05-01T15:09:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eYEf6TUI7Kdla9heYVkt | ⚽ Will England beat Brazil during regular time on Sat, Mar 23, 2024? Friendlies 🌎 | ⚽ England vs Brazil
📅 Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: Friendlies
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- England has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time... | 2024-03-19T17:02:29 | 2024-03-23T15:00:00 | 2024-03-23T15:01:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-E85MEcOdlJVySkNZUQ8I | 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2024? | Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful launches in 2024?
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
LAUNC... | 2024-03-19T16:23:18 | 2024-12-29T03:41:24 | 2024-12-29T03:41:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9BD5JuTiREbrNnxeCFtu | Will Taylor Swift's upcoming album, Tortured Poets, debut at #1 on Billboard 200? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T15:33:46 | 2024-04-30T07:31:12 | 2024-04-30T07:31:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MwDowHgEN26Kq2no0qO3 | Will Donald Trump still be alive when September ends? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T13:30:21 | 2024-09-30T14:59:00 | 2024-09-30T15:14:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rbjm6w8DCB78uFdf0CGC | Will Donald Trump still be alive by the end of 4th of July? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T13:28:17 | 2024-07-04T14:59:00 | 2024-07-12T01:42:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-y5kIMNWG1C7wpWOV8Ubf | Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of 2024? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-03-19T12:20:47 | 2024-11-07T12:32:20 | 2024-11-07T12:32:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xrobwQaCZ5HyAGAAQAtM | Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of August 23rd 2024? | Going by Google for BTC price, or overwhelming consensus of multiple mainstream websites
Going by Eastern Time for EOD | 2024-03-19T11:59:53 | 2024-08-23T20:59:00 | 2024-08-23T21:18:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QnLueFX9xg6jDXfwxeP0 | Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of April? | Resolves based on Google. ET | 2024-03-19T11:22:48 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-04-30T21:01:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gNfuszYpvZ1U8ZqKCTQ6 | Will Jimmy Carter be alive AND King Charles still be king AND Nvidia stock is $90 AND BTC above $65K at EOY 2024? | 10x adjustment if nvda splits (900->90)
| 2024-03-19T11:22:42 | 2024-12-29T13:35:16 | 2024-12-29T13:35:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QTdZI6KhdEtDR5TMnc3g | Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of July? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-03-19T10:02:53 | 2024-07-30T21:19:40 | 2024-07-30T21:19:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WihPXpdrcUUw2Wnfoydj | Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer? | Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures due to grid strains as reported by major news organizations. Needs to be major national headline news searching google news for Texas blackout from a non-local new... | 2024-03-19T07:11:53 | 2024-09-23T20:59:00 | 2024-09-24T06:08:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ztnEfHDVTUOzTH4Jum6X | Will NVIDIA have a Higher Market cap than AAPL by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T06:45:27 | 2024-06-05T16:41:08 | 2024-06-05T16:41:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1I21nCD6YYiyPanRRkuQ | Will BTC touch $ 100k in 2025?? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-19T05:21:17 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-26T20:21:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-d6yWEWNmQtt13U778Zr6 | Will Manchester United beat Chelsea on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧 | 📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:15
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester United has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both... | 2024-03-19T04:27:26 | 2024-04-04T15:11:01 | 2024-04-04T15:11:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0i9n6X7TZn1GbFMcsvBm | Will Arsenal beat Manchester United on Sun, May 12, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧 | 📅 Date: Sunday, May 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have a... | 2024-03-19T04:22:02 | 2024-05-12T10:30:18 | 2024-05-12T10:30:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-49FyYsgA4XfLhS0ygFRv | Will Arsenal beat Tottenham Hotspur on Sun, Apr 28, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧 | 📅 Date: Sunday, April 28, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have... | 2024-03-19T04:16:21 | 2024-04-28T08:26:49 | 2024-04-28T08:26:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ackGeDvvQlZcBfhecUxd | [Short Fuse 🧨] Will Conservative MPs move against Rishi Sunak this week? | Christopher Hope of GB News posits that Conservative Party MPs could move against PM Rishi Sunak this week, taking the format of either a request to stand down by Chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady, or enough letters of no confidence being submitted to trigger a vote of no confidence.
This market resolves YES... | 2024-03-19T02:03:06 | 2024-03-24T16:59:00 | 2024-03-24T18:17:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8AzpJ0apoj1ONxKwsYjd | Will TikTok be available for download via Apple's App Store and Google's play store in the US in June 2024? | Under the name TikTok. | 2024-03-18T23:18:13 | 2024-06-14T11:29:00 | 2025-01-03T13:35:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bQXxkkimrWU6cRobLlbp | Will King Charles abdicate or pass away before Chat GPT 4.5 or 5 releases? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T21:03:18 | 2025-02-28T18:19:24 | 2025-02-28T18:19:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yBoy5i5DKv6MvZvt5UVl | Elon Musk will use the word “AI” in a tweet before Good Friday (March 29) | “Artificial Intelligence” fully spelled out will count as YES.
Retweets will count as NO
Images posted with the word will count as NO; it must be written in the text of the tweet. | 2024-03-18T19:54:09 | 2024-03-26T17:58:48 | 2024-03-26T17:58:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jHzQOcYC5gPd9DjW0G3U | Will Bitcoin dip below $60K in March 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-18T18:54:07 | 2024-03-30T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T00:03:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TghpieFslqpP0HsKn2in | Will Lex Friedman interview Ilya Sutskever again in by mid 2024? | Lex Friedman just released the interview with Sam Altman, will he interview Ilya again by June? | 2024-03-18T17:12:02 | 2024-07-01T08:59:00 | 2024-07-03T04:53:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PJOUK5rl3SffVLoNaNPi | Will Trump Tower be seized by the state of New York? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T15:47:21 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:58:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VzRCuK0k2CcDsw0Mt2Xy | Will Bitcoin hit $69K in March 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
| 2024-03-18T15:43:52 | 2024-03-25T15:08:26 | 2024-03-25T15:08:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SFBkhSITE9z3sohWTscB | Will any #1 seed lose on the first weekend of March Madness? | As it says. Either Round 1 or 2.
UCONN, North Carolina, Houston and Purdue are the #1s this year. | 2024-03-18T15:34:51 | 2024-03-25T08:00:24 | 2024-03-25T08:00:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fFmTjkm8yzgFWXKn2EtH | Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T14:32:54 | 2025-01-21T16:24:26 | 2025-01-22T21:32:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BoWEgYoW2xYIylm0BcgA | Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T14:32:24 | 2025-01-21T16:24:32 | 2025-01-22T21:33:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tngONpRO1TOvsbYKDZCf | Will NYAG Letitia James start selling Trump assets by May 1, 2024 to satisfy the $454 million civil fraud judgment? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T12:34:28 | 2024-05-01T20:11:12 | 2024-05-01T20:11:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eizuoYHG2Q0rHaAsgOx4 | Will Putin announce a new wave of mobilization by the end of March? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-18T12:19:12 | 2024-04-01T07:48:23 | 2024-04-01T07:48:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LVr2EhXJeiRSBoLFDZNb | King Charles Death or Abdication: will the Royal Palace announce either before the Queen's death anniversary? (Sept 8) | A duplicate of this 2024 market with a shorter fuse: @/shankypanky/death-or-abdication-will-the-royal
Rumours have been swirling in the Twitterverse (and the TikTokosphere?) about King Charles: Is he dead? Is he dying? Will he imminently announce his abdication?
In February the Palace announced that King Charles ha... | 2024-03-18T11:42:29 | 2024-09-08T23:59:00 | 2024-09-10T22:50:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3ds0IRyGkmJbQzaixtlD | King Charles Death or Abdication (Long Live the King): will the Royal Palace announce either this year? | This is @Joshua's market with a longer fuse because so far, it doesn't seem like the King has died or resigned today: @/Joshua/short-fuse-is-king-charles-either-d
Rumours have been swirling in the Twitterverse (and the TikTokosphere?) about King Charles: Is he dead? Is he dying? Will he imminently announce his abdi... | 2024-03-18T11:09:52 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-14T05:21:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bs21ofQqDblxQmNWw6qW | Will RFK Jr. nominate a woman for his VP pick? | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent presidential candidate) name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election?
YES: his selection is a person who identifies as "woman"
NO: his selection is a person who does not identify as "woman"
| 2024-03-18T10:25:25 | 2024-03-26T13:40:05 | 2024-03-26T13:40:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oKy2HP3wVVDUekN5QOHi | Will OpenAI Sora release to the public before the next GPT version, 4.5 / 5? | First one to be available to the public, for free or for pay. Specifically in the United States. Not a closed beta or a waitlisted beta, must be available to everyone. Announcement of future public availability doesn't count. | 2024-03-18T10:21:37 | 2024-12-09T10:27:59 | 2024-12-09T10:27:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cXvrbd2yoO4ijdq2AUhd | Open-source(ish) Devin equivalent by EOY 2024? | Will an open-source system match or exceed Devin's 13.9% score on SWE-bench (unassisted) by EOY 2024?
I will define a system as "open-source" if:
its code (inference code, agent framework, etc) is publicly available under an open-source license
it uses a model which is reasonably available to the general public via ... | 2024-03-18T07:46:43 | 2024-06-06T13:37:03 | 2024-06-06T13:37:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rCey8oljqnbA0833RMvD | 🩺 Will Apple announce a watch with some kind of blood-pressure monitoring in 2024? | Apple Watch Series 10 rumored to offer limited blood pressure monitoring (AppleInsider)
Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has said that "all signs point to the new Apple Watch gaining a blood-pressure checker this fall"
AppleInsider Rumor Score: "Possible"
Edge Cases:
Apple announces, but does not yet release the feature or ... | 2024-03-18T07:44:08 | 2024-12-31T15:16:24 | 2024-12-31T15:16:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nYphOzdg9tWqCnQPKNtx | London Mayoral Election - Will Sadiq Khan have the biggest ever winning margin? (More than 15.8%) | The 2024 UK local elections are taking place on 2nd May.
The most high profile election of the day will be the London Mayoral election where Sadiq Khan is hoping to win an unprecedented 3rd term as Mayor of London.
While Khan is a controversial figure, his main Tory rival in this year's race is the shockingly embaras... | 2024-03-18T06:48:52 | 2024-05-05T03:16:43 | 2024-05-05T03:16:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-86IMv4jnSJXK1ttQaVCh | 🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,699.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024? | 🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,699.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024?
S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX)
Predictions are open the entire year or until event occurs.
Resolve YES according to question as soon as it happens, or NO at the end of the trading year if it does not happen.
Resolves according to... | 2024-03-18T05:25:31 | 2024-12-31T09:00:00 | 2024-12-31T13:02:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iqzIUcCGcJFDTkWYZvyC | Will England beat Brazil on Sat, Mar 23, 2024? - International Friendly ⚽ | 📅 Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00
🏆 Competition: International Friendly
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- England has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both ... | 2024-03-18T04:52:37 | 2024-03-23T14:07:24 | 2024-03-23T14:07:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RkwCHrMlclK0XXU4k9k7 | Official announcement about Apple using Google's Gemini on their devices before EOY 2024? | I will not bet in this market.
Also, see same market but for OpenAI
(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/official-announcement-about-apple-u-fc3b4e0ccfa3)[tweet] | 2024-03-18T00:21:52 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T01:19:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2uVETi4mBqQe5WhW2SMt | Will King Charles abdicate or pass away before Reddit IPOs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T20:41:33 | 2024-03-21T10:48:59 | 2024-03-21T10:48:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w2aeqQ1XsQcPzmV3PTYi | [Short Fuse] Is King Charles either dead or announcing his abdication? | Twitter sure seems to think so but I am dubious.
Resolves Yes if there is any such announcement by the end of tomorrow, pacific time. Resolves No otherwise. | 2024-03-17T19:39:28 | 2024-03-18T23:59:00 | 2024-03-19T05:25:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-B9NumCc7xnew4ZrW0beV | [Short Fuse] Intense combat at al-Shifa hospital due to senior Hamas members present. Will they be killed / captured? | This market will resolve YES if the IDF operation at the al-Shifa hospital complex results in the death or capture of a named senior Hamas leader, according to reliable Western sources. I'll consider the Hamas leader "senior" if they are widely reported as "senior", and if they have significant reporting on them prior ... | 2024-03-17T18:40:25 | 2024-03-29T05:38:57 | 2024-03-29T05:38:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xHgW0bEHiuPPesAK5HCq | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $95,000 before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T16:13:13 | 2024-11-26T08:23:40 | 2024-11-26T08:23:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5lFMJ1rtv5FanVGCNpJ0 | Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Blue Monday 2025? (Jan 15) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T15:33:31 | 2025-01-15T20:59:00 | 2025-01-17T07:25:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4nVgj3ARGsar2ghLSOmy | Will Katherine Princess of Wales announce plans to divorce Prince William before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T15:12:26 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:17:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dir2fpgKaBJqNVJ4AlHa | 👻 Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross more during its opening weekend than the rest of the top 5 combined? | Source: The "Weekend Domestic Chart for March 22, 2024" on the-numbers.com.
Here is the the equivalent chart for the weekend of March 8: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2024/03/08.
Thus "Kung Fu Panda 4" grossed $57,989,905, "Dune: Part Two" grossed $46,215,424, and so on.
This market resolves Y... | 2024-03-17T15:11:33 | 2024-03-27T08:29:41 | 2024-03-27T08:29:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-drJ7o7Ys0vBfq0QpaUKm | Will France be one of top 3 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:45:55 | 2024-08-11T08:54:47 | 2024-08-11T08:54:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CIP2E8PYFPjpdeo2IqNU | Will France be one of top 4 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:45:49 | 2024-08-11T08:30:14 | 2024-08-11T08:30:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ZdlbSMxnvo1Nc8EJr5C | Will France be one of top 5 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:45:24 | 2024-08-11T08:54:20 | 2024-08-11T08:54:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mAxpbMrgekCOfgP66TwW | Will both Georgia and Arizona be Red states in 2024 US elections? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:20:21 | 2024-11-10T16:31:46 | 2024-11-10T16:31:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tMfB5ObtEsF2P8V3UyhN | Will there be at least 2 presidential debates b/w Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:14:22 | 2024-10-15T12:02:03 | 2024-10-15T12:02:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-148TSAm25cmXNUPW8DXO | Will there be 3 presidential debates b/w Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T12:14:01 | 2024-11-07T16:22:59 | 2024-11-07T16:22:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XKIyIR9rwY63KuThwhf1 | Will there be an Olympics ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine? | This question will resolve YES if there a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and an actual stop in the vast majority of fighting from both sides, that overlaps with the 2024 Olympics in Paris for atleast one day. The Olympics are scheduled for July 26 to August 11th. Context:
[tweet] | 2024-03-17T09:32:57 | 2024-08-12T07:24:57 | 2024-08-12T07:24:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xcKoGrgFMCLIFNXoEvEU | Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before May 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-17T07:38:59 | 2024-05-01T06:41:57 | 2024-05-01T06:41:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BUsqcKNHgSjvfH2hrcVx | Will Jon Tester come within 5 points of winning? | losing by less than 5 percentage points or winning outright resolves yes, losing by more than 5 points resolves no | 2024-03-17T03:01:05 | 2024-12-03T17:54:57 | 2024-12-03T17:54:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XMHCFl1Et3cIvzKtoivn | In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem? | Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2024, the category most specifically referencing AI has a rounded percentage of at least 1% during any month. For the current poll, I wou... | 2024-03-17T00:31:02 | 2024-04-11T09:55:47 | 2024-04-11T09:55:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yi5CLp7JgIQM7D4mqLoO | Will Bitcoin hit $70K again in March 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-16T18:43:23 | 2024-03-25T12:36:09 | 2024-03-25T12:36:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gEHIDndptKQJhjLDS2xF | Will the scientific journal "Nature" explicitly endorse Joe Biden for president in 2024? | In October 2020, the influential scientific journal "Nature" endorsed Joe Biden for president over Donald Trump.
This was a controversial decision. In 2023, Nature itself published research by Floyd Jiuyun Zhang claiming that the endorsement had minimal impact on political opinions but did substantively reduce the tr... | 2024-03-16T12:31:55 | 2024-07-21T14:57:25 | 2024-07-21T14:57:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XoGAsf7MADtI2IrmN4AP | Will Bitcoin hit $71K in March 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
| 2024-03-16T12:22:33 | 2024-03-25T15:07:07 | 2024-03-25T15:07:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-91mUaePn2DjTqqzC8pjo | Will Bitcoin hit $72K in March 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
Timezone is EDT. | 2024-03-16T12:22:08 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-03-31T21:19:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
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