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forecasting

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mani-evqBu2pwGTpA97STPo9D
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on March 22?
Changes are coming to a Jimmy market near you. - Just a couple more things. All changes will be done by Mar 7 or so or later than that or never. Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7 | mira | Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 22 2024 Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Mar 22 2024 Recent Jimmy Facts #47 - President Carter is a sixth cousin once removed to Elvis Presley #46 - Started in 1991, The Carter Center's Mental Health Program aims to combat stigma surrounding mental illness and improve access to mental health care globally. #45 - President Jimmy Carter was inducted into the Georgia Agricultural Hall of Fame on November 9 at the 64th UGA College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Alumni Association Awards. #44 - Effective March 4, 2024 the Jimmy Carter Library museum will be open Monday – Saturday, 9:30 AM – 4:30 PM. #43 - James Earl Carter Sr, Jimmy's Father, passed away on July 22 1953 due to pancreatic cancer. Fifteen days after Jimmy Carter and Rosalynn's 7th Anniversary. #42 - On Oct 9, 1953 Jimmy Carter was honorably discharged at his own request after serving 7 years, 4 months and 8 days. One day later he was appointed to US Naval Reserve and placed on inactive duty. #41 - 3 years after he was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) Jimmy Carter was promoted again on June 01, 1952 to the rank of Lieutenant. #40 - On June 5th, 1949 Jimmy Carter was promoted to Lieutenant (j.g.) #39 - From Aug 8, 1946 to July 23, 1947 Jimmy Carter served aboard USS Wyoming (E-AG17). #38 - While at the Naval Academy, Jimmy Carter was an active member of the varsity soccer team. #37 - Before going to the United States Naval Academy Jimmy Carter studied Engineering at Georgia Institute of Technology. This market is part of the Tiger McBot League - Beta
2024-03-21T22:38:54
2024-03-22T21:59:00
2024-03-22T21:59:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-d0BkGDeC5KxglC73f8RV
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $77777 by 7/7? (July 7th)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-21T21:36:31
2024-07-07T18:39:42
2024-07-07T18:39:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5hJBtNXExI6Uiw4AFIP9
Will Bitcoin BTC reach $99999 by 9/9? (September 9th)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-21T21:27:26
2024-09-09T20:59:00
2024-09-09T21:10:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-G4C10Cac9iSGtu953iA3
Will USA beat Mexico? ⚽ Concacaf Nations League Final
[image]Winner of the final. Includes extra-time and penalty shootout if applicable.
2024-03-21T21:10:43
2024-03-24T20:12:48
2024-03-24T20:12:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zCVmd4xx2NIrXxhN9h4r
Will Lex Fridman interview Ilya Sutskever before the end of 2024?
Lex Fridman has to release a video on his YouTube channel @lexfridman with Ilya to make the question to be resolved as YES
2024-03-21T17:26:26
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-04T08:44:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IDKcDPk3XCzU8Dqcn7to
⚽ Will Sweden beat Albania during regular time on Mon, Mar 25, 2024? Friendlies 🌎
⚽ Sweden vs Albania 📅 Date: Monday, March 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:00 🏆 Competition: Friendlies 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Sweden has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Albania has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-03-21T17:03:22
2024-03-25T14:00:00
2024-03-25T20:39:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-roHuBO1MwtkPkDAf7k8U
🏀 Will #1 North Carolina beat #9 Michigan St. in the 2nd Round? (Men's March Madness 2024)
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard. For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
2024-03-21T14:43:17
2024-03-23T17:45:45
2024-03-23T17:45:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-URMojc3rDpUpdrJKlrza
Biden has taken the lead in the Economist polling average. Will Trump retake the lead in March?
[tweet]The Economist's Trump vs Biden polling average was updated today, March 21st, and shows that their average of the polls as of March 17th was Biden 45%, Trump 44%. Will Trump retake the lead before the end of the month? If the average for any day from March 18th-March 31st shows Trump ahead of Biden, this market resolves YES. If Biden remains ahead or tied for each of these days, this market resolves NO after the last day of March is added to the average. Note that due to the delay, we should expect not to see the data for March 31st until a few days after that in April. You can find more questions like this on the polling dashboard.
2024-03-21T13:26:24
2024-03-27T12:25:23
2024-03-27T12:25:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tNXLHEkqRT1dGcjTpxET
Will the next GPT model be released before the 2024 USA Presidential Election?
Some say that OpenAI will not release any new models until after the Election is over due to fears of AI content being used in an adversarial way. If OpenAI releases a new major or minor release of the GPT model (assuming major.minor making scheme, then GPT 4.X, GPT 5, etc...) prior or on election day, this will be resolved as true. Update: Per the answers to people's comments below, I'm adding clarification. A 'new' gpt model requires for an update in the Major.Minor naming scheme. Previously models went GPT 2, GPT 3, GPT 3.5, GPT 4, following a major.minor scheme, as the underlying model got better. Following this logic GPT4 turbo and gpt4o aren't new models. GPT 4 Turbo just goes faster and 4o is multi-modal. Same brains, just more ways to interface. This prediction will resolve at the night of the American election, or if openAI releases a new model (per the major.minor naming scheme) before then. Feel free to ask more questions/comment if need.
2024-03-21T08:30:32
2024-09-12T15:41:11
2024-09-12T15:41:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jxxjNUBYse4ZVPlA2L7z
Will the opposition in the UK parliament be a party other than the Conservative Party after the next election?
Resolves yes if the second largest party is not the Conservative Party, Otherwise no.
2024-03-21T07:20:33
2024-07-05T21:13:58
2024-07-05T21:13:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-X6z4W0MyUb2HnxIRCl1b
Will YouTuber 'Whatifalthist's prediction of a new US civil war be covered by major US news media outlets by July 14?
This market resolves based on whether by July 14, 2024 at least 2 major US news media outlets (see list below) publish articles reporting on Rudyard Lynch's ('Whatifathis') prediction of the US collapsing into a new civil war in 2024. Resolution will be based on whether any of these media outlets publish articles in their online editions. Threshold for 'YES' resolution is the publication of articles that feature Rudyard and his prediction as the primary story being reported in the article. In other words, if there are only articles that mention Rudyard or Whatifalthist as an example, but are not primarily about Rudyard , then that will resolve to 'NO'. BACKGROUND: - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - On the Moment of Zen podcast episode March 9, 2024 with hosts Eric Torenberg and Dan Romero, YouTuber Rudyard Lynch ('Whatifalthist') predicts that the US will collapse into a civil war or revolution by the November election. https://www.youtube.com/clip/UgkxKt9cRMlQEBmTnEJONweTfn4oggXQL6ZH 21:19-21:35 RUDYARD: "I believe America... and I've made like six videos on this... I think America will have a civil war or a revolution in the next year... I said actually that I think it'll happen by the 2024 election and I say these things so that you know I'm not a charlatan...and if I'm wrong I'm wrong." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Rudyard has recently made similarly sensational predictions on his YouTube channel 'Whatifalthist': https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxPoJbvitEV49EAvqFQo1lyoxnxPlwLNkD?feature=shared 1:23-1:37 RUDYARD: "I don't think American society can make it through the 2024 election without collapsing into Civil War. We might not even have that much time if I'm being honest." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MAJOR US NEWS MEDIA OUTLETS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_media_in_the_United_States ABC News CBS News CNN Fox News Channel MSNBC NBC News The New York Times USA Today The Wall Street Journal The Washington Post Politico Bloomberg Vice News HBO HuffPost TMZ CNET NPR The Hollywood Reporter Newsweek The New Yorker Time U.S. News & World Report
2024-03-21T04:45:08
2024-07-14T21:59:00
2024-07-15T05:16:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NGh50zOsSf6vBbHB5keh
Will Adobe release a generative AI video tool in Adobe Summit 2024?
Adobe Summit 2024, scheduled for March 26-28 in Las Vegas, is a premier event for Adobe's major announcements on its suite of products and services. This market aims to predict whether Adobe will announce the launch of a new generative AI product for text to video creation
2024-03-21T04:02:58
2024-03-29T08:59:00
2024-03-29T09:41:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zdNX3v9BwBVuOHQA1Q8D
Will Israel go to elections before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-21T03:29:09
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2025-01-05T14:02:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XsVQryRxeiu45lZoZ8Fw
Will Reform UK poll at 20% or above before the next general election?
Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 10% to 15% for the past few weeks and hit a record high of 15% with Yougov today: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election Will they poll at 20% or above before the general election? Market notes: The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count. The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count If a poll is released with a headline figure of Reform on 20%, this market will resolve to YES even if digging into the data shows that it would have been 19.x% before rounding Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source. Related markets: @/SimonGrayson/will-reform-uk-be-ahead-of-the-cons @/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform-6af568feead7 @/SimonGrayson/will-any-more-mps-defect-to-reform @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
2024-03-21T03:15:44
2024-06-19T23:33:04
2024-06-19T23:33:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lCQDeW1W7fzo8Yzdc7ZE
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before June 13, 2024?
Upcoming Fed meetings scheduled for April 30/May 1 and June 11/12.
2024-03-20T23:53:18
2024-06-13T20:52:16
2024-06-13T20:52:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DXZL1ZDLe0eqAGtJsEg9
Will there be a new largest known prime number by the end of 2026?
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Largest_known_prime_number The record is currently held by 2^(82,589,933)−1 with 24,862,048 digits, found by GIMPS in December 2018.
2024-03-20T23:43:17
2024-10-21T08:44:06
2024-10-21T08:44:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-05Si5MYIS18ZMObRHanQ
Will Tesla unveil a quadruped robot in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-20T23:17:47
2024-12-31T02:59:00
2025-01-01T03:10:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SSonX1RWLXTTqozO7aOQ
Will Marques Brownlee (MKBHD) release a review of the Rabbit R1 before the end of April 1st 2024?
Link: https://www.youtube.com/@mkbhd/videos
2024-03-20T21:01:42
2024-04-01T20:59:00
2024-04-01T21:07:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NeCGQmwpPSdpOEJZ6XH7
Will S&P500 hit $5400 before $5000?
Start courting from market creation Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX Resolves Yes if S&P500 hit $5400 first Resolves No if S&P500 hit $5000 first Market close date will be extended as needed.
2024-03-20T17:28:44
2024-04-19T20:59:00
2024-04-20T16:55:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2HRGe3xyflE4lnHKnrKh
Will English Wikipedia reach 7M articles before Bitcoin reaches $100K?
Link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Size_of_Wikipedia
2024-03-20T16:03:28
2024-12-04T19:59:02
2024-12-04T19:59:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NZrQI7zSgOy9gLqLqwDG
Will a specific AI image or video model be mentioned by anyone in a presidential debate in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-20T15:53:25
2024-10-27T20:59:00
2024-11-09T16:40:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JSiX6Bv5MjrTzAQ1uxh9
Will "OpenAI" be said by anyone in a Presidential debate in 2024?
Including the moderators
2024-03-20T15:52:00
2024-10-31T20:59:00
2024-11-09T16:40:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nWXoq3dzKAxsoa5mPsKb
Will 2024 prove to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2 as posited by Noah Smith?
On his NOAHPINION blog post Feb 12, 2024, Noah Smith writes: . . . When I write about world affairs, I tend to use some terms like “New Axis” and “Cold War 2” might seem melodramatic. But my purpose in using those terms isn’t to rile people up or scare them; it’s because I think they effectively describe what’s going on in the world today. Cold War 2 is just a mental model for thinking about how geopolitical narratives, allegiances, and organizations are tending to bifurcate between two rival blocs. And I call China, Russia, and Iran the “New Axis” because their partnership is more of a loose, convenient alignment against the U.S. than a close, cooperative alliance — similar to the way that Germany, Japan, and Italy were partners of convenience in World War 2. Anyway, I think 2024 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for Cold War 2. . . . https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/2024-could-be-the-pivotal-year-for - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MARKET RESOLUTION CRITERIA: Resolves to 'YES'/'NO' upon Noah publicly writing that events have confirmed/refuted 2024 as a pivotal year for Cold War 2 according to his definition If Noah agrees to weigh in on moderating this market resolution, then his judgement will rule. Otherwise... - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Resolves to 'NO' upon this linked market resolving to 'YES: Will the existing China government collapse by 2025? https://manifold.markets/andrew/will-the-existing-china-government Resolves to 'YES' if this Metaculus question stays at community prediction <50% for at least three consecutive days Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029? https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21374/us-is-a-nato-member-until-2029/ Resolves to 'YES' if any of these Manifold markets resolve to 'YES' : https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-china-invade-taiwan-by-the-end https://manifold.markets/StochasticParrot/will-china-set-up-an-economic-block-aeb39b85cacb https://manifold.markets/cash/will-china-militarily-seize-any-of https://manifold.markets/CertaintyOfVictory/will-russia-launch-an-armed-attack-99a23cfde335 https://manifold.markets/FedorShabashev/will-russia-invade-any-nato-country-e02c9aeb4b88 ...and resolves to 'NO' if none of the above conditions are met by YE2024 (note: I'll apply discretion if any of the Manifold markets are resolved in error or in a way that is disputed by the community)
2024-03-20T13:28:12
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-01T07:09:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kS0srjwWulV7SlLAVXfh
Will Fani Willis be disqualified from the Trump Fulton County case by the Georgia Court of Appeals?
This market resolves to YES if Fani Willis is disqualified by the Georgia Court of Appeals. Otherwise this market resolves to NO.
2024-03-20T13:15:01
2024-12-30T07:31:27
2024-12-30T07:31:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BtglLNaU4xhmq9knER7R
Will The FOMC Stay With Their March 2024 Indication In Their Statement Of Having 3 Rate Cuts During 2024?
Will The FOMC Stay With Their Statement Of 3 Rate Cuts During 2024? Resolution: Resolves YES If They Cut 3 Times Resolves NO If They Cut 1, 2, 4 or more. CONTEXT: Fed holds rates steady but indicates three cuts coming sometime this year [image]CLARIFICATIONS: 03/20/2024: 3 Meetings each with a rate cut satisfies this as YES, no less, no more. 03/25/2024: The meeting which 3 cuts come from, MUST be during a Calendar session, and not an emergency session/intermeeting cuts, etc. This market extends after every meeting. JANUARY 2024 : RATES HELD MARCH 2024 : RATES HELD APRIL/MAY 2024 : RATES HELD JUNE 2024 : RATES HELD JULY 2024 : RATES HELD SEPTEMBER 2024 : 1st Cut - September Meeting 50 basis-point rate cut https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/18/fed-meeting-live-updates-traders-await-september-interest-rate-cut.html NOVEMBER 2024 : TBD DECEMBER 2024 : TBD [image]DISCLAIMER I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST. If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description. SIMILAR MARKET (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-the-fmoc-stay-with-their-march-b00562c17f39)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-during-which-official-federal-rese)
2024-03-20T12:25:47
2024-12-18T11:00:00
2024-12-18T11:39:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ECN5IHMkCLKmrJwKbG3X
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of May 6th, Israel time?
End of day Israel time both sides must agree
2024-03-20T12:02:32
2024-05-06T13:59:00
2024-05-06T18:45:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lEuWakbGqlmAh1hCKp7v
Will a federal election be called in Canada before the end of 2024?
Canada is a parliamentary democracy and an election can be called at any time by the party in government, or by Parliament through a vote of no confidence. The next federal election could happen as late as 20 Oct 2025, and could begin as few as 36 days before then. That would make 14 Sep 2025 the latest possible date for the next Canadian election to be called. Justin Trudeau's minority government, which is polling below the official opposition, has a confidence-and-supply agreement with the NDP. Justin Trudeau could call a snap election to capitalize on a change in polling, or the NDP could withdraw their support for the government. This question resolves YES if a federal election is called before the end of 2024, even if voting takes places in 2025. If no election is called before 1 Jan 2025, this question resolves NO. See also: [markets]
2024-03-20T10:03:30
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:49:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZLnXae9dXnTryLWWScUi
Will Donald Trump select a running mate for VP prior to July 15, 2024?
Official Campaign announcement of a VP prior to 7/15/24, resolves YES
2024-03-20T08:42:56
2024-07-15T11:35:08
2024-07-15T11:35:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0ODVlhiUzgdgx1l4KEfI
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 this summer (2024) as BusinessInsider claims?
Link to BusinessInsider's Article: https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3 The generative AI company helmed by Sam Altman is on track to put out GPT-5 sometime mid-year, likely during summer, according to two people familiar with the company. Some enterprise customers have recently received demos of the latest model and its related enhancements to the ChatGPT tool, another person familiar with the process said. These people, whose identities Business Insider has confirmed, asked to remain anonymous so they could speak freely. "It's really good, like materially better," said one CEO who recently saw a version of GPT-5. OpenAI demonstrated the new model with use cases and data unique to his company, the CEO said. He said the company also alluded to other as-yet-unreleased capabilities of the model, including the ability to call AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks autonomously. OpenAI is still training GPT-5, one of the people familiar said. After training is complete, it will be safety tested internally and further "red teamed," a process where employees and typically a selection of outsiders challenge the tool in various ways to find issues before it's made available to the public. There is no specific timeframe when safety testing needs to be completed, one of the people familiar noted, so that process could delay any release date. UPDATE: OpenAI responded with this when asked by ArsTechnica: [image]RESOLUTION Will resolve as Yes if GPT-5 is released before September 1st (first day of Fall / Autumn) Does the model need to be called GPT-5 explicitly? It depends If it’s called GPT 4.5 — resolve no If it’s called GPT 5 — resolve yes If they drop the “GPT-n” naming convention all together then that’s a little trickier to resolve but I’d probably base it off whether it matches what Sam has said about GPT-5 publicly: Have they released other things before it (as Sam mentions they will in Lex transcript above)? Is the leap from the GPT-4 to the new model akin to the leap from GPT-3 to GPT-4 (as Sam has mentioned it will be) or is it more incremental?
2024-03-20T07:13:37
2024-09-01T06:59:00
2024-09-01T13:48:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-blhlfiVRNfMJe1oaCEyw
Will Joe Biden still be alive when September ends?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-20T07:05:51
2024-09-30T14:59:00
2024-09-30T15:15:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-16QV6JcKk82jsJ9AvXze
Will Joe Biden still be alive by the end of July?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-20T07:04:32
2024-07-31T14:59:00
2024-08-01T01:18:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2IB5FHx0DcUYauNfkBQv
Will Joe Biden still be alive by end of May?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-20T07:02:45
2024-05-31T14:59:00
2024-05-31T15:07:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dpTKFFqG1i5LTzlFcy7n
Will the US presidential election (2024) be postponed?
The 2024 presidential election will take place on November 5. If this is changed to a date later than November 5, then that resolves this market to yes.
2024-03-20T05:28:00
2024-11-06T09:09:05
2024-11-06T09:09:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wzcpS2Mml8VT9ZOFByyp
Will King Charles visit Australia in 2024?
King Charles is reportedly planning a trip to Australia in 2024. Will it go ahead? Resolves YES if King Charles III is physically present in Australia at any point in 2024, local time wherever he is. Context: King Charles and Queen Camilla's 'possible' Australia tour plans underway A royal tour is being planned for later in the year, despite the monarch scaling back engagements after his recent cancer diagnosis.
2024-03-20T03:28:25
2024-10-21T03:55:04
2024-10-21T03:55:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8v8iyrv0l53M1plgSMoD
Will Bitcoin reach $80K within a week before or after the 4th Bitcoin halving?
Expected to happen this year See: @/strutheo/will-bitcoin-reach-100k-within-a-we
2024-03-20T00:05:03
2024-04-26T17:25:47
2024-04-26T17:25:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I8TXThgluPFRx9knaMo4
✡️ Will there be a significant migration of Jewish voters from the Democratic Party to the Republican Party in 2024?
As Biden walks back some support for Israel, and Chuck Schumer calls for new elections, some American Jewish voters are looking to the Republican Party as a viable option in the 2024 elections. Trump has even weighed in. In the past, Jews have been overwhelmingly liberal and democratic. Will the comments of those in the Democratic Party, among other events related to the Israel-Hamas war, lead to a significant increase in Jewish republican voters during the 2024 U.S. elections? Resolves YES if: 1. There is a 10%+ migration of Jewish voters to the Republican Party compared to the most recent elections OR 2. A migration of Jewish voters majorly influences the results of national elections (i.e. a number of Republican lawmakers are elected because of this migration)
2024-03-19T23:07:27
2024-11-26T11:14:45
2024-11-26T11:14:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ivf05W6uuuBkQMckKGdJ
Will the 2024 US presidential election be within 200,000 votes (for electors to the Electoral College)?
The United States has a recent history of extremely close presidential elections. In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 80,000 votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Washington Post). In 2000, George Bush famously won against Al Gore by only a few hundred votes in the state of Florida. This question resolves YES if 200,000 votes or less (i.e. the total vote difference between the top two candidates) distributed over any number of states/districts, would have made the difference between one presidential candidate or the other winning by electors to the Electoral College. See also: [markets]
2024-03-19T22:51:09
2024-12-11T23:59:00
2024-12-12T11:23:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8v6xxV3n1ZVMHGJLKOSk
Is businessinsider.com's GPT-5 article legit?
Resolves YES if OpenAI releases GPT-5 in one of the months April through September, 2024 and the model includes "the ability to call AI agents being developed by OpenAI to perform tasks autonomously". It has to be called GPT-5. Here's the article: https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3
2024-03-19T21:15:00
2024-10-01T03:59:00
2024-10-01T04:00:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ltb2WMaq7TY4j9uCNEPg
Will a Boeing-built airplane crash by the end of 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T20:52:31
2024-05-09T10:45:28
2024-05-09T10:45:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1gLLUvvhrVZyOAOiP0G3
Will Lex Fridman reach 4M subscribers in April 2024?
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/lex_fridman/monthly
2024-03-19T19:33:44
2024-05-01T14:59:00
2024-05-01T15:09:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eYEf6TUI7Kdla9heYVkt
⚽ Will England beat Brazil during regular time on Sat, Mar 23, 2024? Friendlies 🌎
⚽ England vs Brazil 📅 Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00 🏆 Competition: Friendlies 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - England has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Brazil has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-03-19T17:02:29
2024-03-23T15:00:00
2024-03-23T15:01:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E85MEcOdlJVySkNZUQ8I
🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful Launches In 2024?
Will SpaceX Achieve 135 Successful launches in 2024? Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page. SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC) LAUNCH COUNT January: 10 February: 9 March: 13 April: 12 May: 14 June: 11 July: 5 August: 12 September: 9 October: 12 November: 17 December: TBD TOTAL: 124 NOTES: Monthly SpaceX Launch Markets CLARIFICATIONS: 3/19/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure. DISCLAIMER I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST. If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description. 100 Goal Market (https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-spacex-achieve-100-successful)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful)[tweet]
2024-03-19T16:23:18
2024-12-29T03:41:24
2024-12-29T03:41:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9BD5JuTiREbrNnxeCFtu
Will Taylor Swift's upcoming album, Tortured Poets, debut at #1 on Billboard 200?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T15:33:46
2024-04-30T07:31:12
2024-04-30T07:31:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MwDowHgEN26Kq2no0qO3
Will Donald Trump still be alive when September ends?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T13:30:21
2024-09-30T14:59:00
2024-09-30T15:14:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rbjm6w8DCB78uFdf0CGC
Will Donald Trump still be alive by the end of 4th of July?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T13:28:17
2024-07-04T14:59:00
2024-07-12T01:42:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-y5kIMNWG1C7wpWOV8Ubf
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of 2024?
Going by Google for BTC price
2024-03-19T12:20:47
2024-11-07T12:32:20
2024-11-07T12:32:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xrobwQaCZ5HyAGAAQAtM
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of August 23rd 2024?
Going by Google for BTC price, or overwhelming consensus of multiple mainstream websites Going by Eastern Time for EOD
2024-03-19T11:59:53
2024-08-23T20:59:00
2024-08-23T21:18:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QnLueFX9xg6jDXfwxeP0
Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of April?
Resolves based on Google. ET
2024-03-19T11:22:48
2024-04-30T20:59:00
2024-04-30T21:01:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gNfuszYpvZ1U8ZqKCTQ6
Will Jimmy Carter be alive AND King Charles still be king AND Nvidia stock is $90 AND BTC above $65K at EOY 2024?
10x adjustment if nvda splits (900->90)
2024-03-19T11:22:42
2024-12-29T13:35:16
2024-12-29T13:35:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QTdZI6KhdEtDR5TMnc3g
Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of July?
Going by Google for BTC price
2024-03-19T10:02:53
2024-07-30T21:19:40
2024-07-30T21:19:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WihPXpdrcUUw2Wnfoydj
Will Texas experience blackouts this Summer?
Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures due to grid strains as reported by major news organizations. Needs to be major national headline news searching google news for Texas blackout from a non-local news source.
2024-03-19T07:11:53
2024-09-23T20:59:00
2024-09-24T06:08:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ztnEfHDVTUOzTH4Jum6X
Will NVIDIA have a Higher Market cap than AAPL by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T06:45:27
2024-06-05T16:41:08
2024-06-05T16:41:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1I21nCD6YYiyPanRRkuQ
Will BTC touch $ 100k in 2025??
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-19T05:21:17
2024-12-31T10:29:00
2025-01-26T20:21:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-d6yWEWNmQtt13U778Zr6
Will Manchester United beat Chelsea on Thu, Apr 4, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧
📅 Date: Thursday, April 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:15 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Manchester United has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Chelsea has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-19T04:27:26
2024-04-04T15:11:01
2024-04-04T15:11:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0i9n6X7TZn1GbFMcsvBm
Will Arsenal beat Manchester United on Sun, May 12, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧
📅 Date: Sunday, May 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Arsenal has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Manchester United has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-19T04:22:02
2024-05-12T10:30:18
2024-05-12T10:30:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-49FyYsgA4XfLhS0ygFRv
Will Arsenal beat Tottenham Hotspur on Sun, Apr 28, 2024? - Premier League 🇬🇧
📅 Date: Sunday, April 28, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Arsenal has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Tottenham Hotspur has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-19T04:16:21
2024-04-28T08:26:49
2024-04-28T08:26:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ackGeDvvQlZcBfhecUxd
[Short Fuse 🧨] Will Conservative MPs move against Rishi Sunak this week?
Christopher Hope of GB News posits that Conservative Party MPs could move against PM Rishi Sunak this week, taking the format of either a request to stand down by Chairman of the 1922 Committee Graham Brady, or enough letters of no confidence being submitted to trigger a vote of no confidence. This market resolves YES if any of the following is true as of Sunday night: 1) Rishi Sunak has stood down as leader of the Conservative Party 2) Rishi Sunak has announced his intentions to stand down before the next election and confirmed he is acting as a caretaker PM until a new leader is chosen. 3) A vote of no confidence in Rishi Sunak has been announced by Graham Brady.
2024-03-19T02:03:06
2024-03-24T16:59:00
2024-03-24T18:17:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8AzpJ0apoj1ONxKwsYjd
Will TikTok be available for download via Apple's App Store and Google's play store in the US in June 2024?
Under the name TikTok.
2024-03-18T23:18:13
2024-06-14T11:29:00
2025-01-03T13:35:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bQXxkkimrWU6cRobLlbp
Will King Charles abdicate or pass away before Chat GPT 4.5 or 5 releases?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T21:03:18
2025-02-28T18:19:24
2025-02-28T18:19:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yBoy5i5DKv6MvZvt5UVl
Elon Musk will use the word “AI” in a tweet before Good Friday (March 29)
“Artificial Intelligence” fully spelled out will count as YES. Retweets will count as NO Images posted with the word will count as NO; it must be written in the text of the tweet.
2024-03-18T19:54:09
2024-03-26T17:58:48
2024-03-26T17:58:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jHzQOcYC5gPd9DjW0G3U
Will Bitcoin dip below $60K in March 2024?
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
2024-03-18T18:54:07
2024-03-30T23:59:00
2024-04-01T00:03:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TghpieFslqpP0HsKn2in
Will Lex Friedman interview Ilya Sutskever again in by mid 2024?
Lex Friedman just released the interview with Sam Altman, will he interview Ilya again by June?
2024-03-18T17:12:02
2024-07-01T08:59:00
2024-07-03T04:53:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PJOUK5rl3SffVLoNaNPi
Will Trump Tower be seized by the state of New York?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T15:47:21
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T15:58:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VzRCuK0k2CcDsw0Mt2Xy
Will Bitcoin hit $69K in March 2024?
Resolves to: Blockchain Mods may resolve Only prices after market creation count
2024-03-18T15:43:52
2024-03-25T15:08:26
2024-03-25T15:08:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SFBkhSITE9z3sohWTscB
Will any #1 seed lose on the first weekend of March Madness?
As it says. Either Round 1 or 2. UCONN, North Carolina, Houston and Purdue are the #1s this year.
2024-03-18T15:34:51
2024-03-25T08:00:24
2024-03-25T08:00:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fFmTjkm8yzgFWXKn2EtH
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T14:32:54
2025-01-21T16:24:26
2025-01-22T21:32:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BoWEgYoW2xYIylm0BcgA
Will the 2024 President Election have a higher voter turnout than the 2020 Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T14:32:24
2025-01-21T16:24:32
2025-01-22T21:33:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tngONpRO1TOvsbYKDZCf
Will NYAG Letitia James start selling Trump assets by May 1, 2024 to satisfy the $454 million civil fraud judgment?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T12:34:28
2024-05-01T20:11:12
2024-05-01T20:11:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eizuoYHG2Q0rHaAsgOx4
Will Putin announce a new wave of mobilization by the end of March?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-18T12:19:12
2024-04-01T07:48:23
2024-04-01T07:48:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LVr2EhXJeiRSBoLFDZNb
King Charles Death or Abdication: will the Royal Palace announce either before the Queen's death anniversary? (Sept 8)
A duplicate of this 2024 market with a shorter fuse: @/shankypanky/death-or-abdication-will-the-royal Rumours have been swirling in the Twitterverse (and the TikTokosphere?) about King Charles: Is he dead? Is he dying? Will he imminently announce his abdication? In February the Palace announced that King Charles had been diagnosed with prostate cancer. Reportedly his cancer was caught early and he is undergoing treatment, but he is 75 years old. He recently missed attending a ceremony, instead recording a video address, but he says he is determined to attend the Trooping the Colours event in June to commemorate the birth of the British Sovereign. Still, anything can happen this year: @/Joshua/universal-death-market-which-public has a 23% chance of his death @/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-king-charles-iii is at 18% for him ceding the throne Resolves Yes if either death (by any means) or abdication before September 8th ends in the UK.
2024-03-18T11:42:29
2024-09-08T23:59:00
2024-09-10T22:50:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3ds0IRyGkmJbQzaixtlD
King Charles Death or Abdication (Long Live the King): will the Royal Palace announce either this year?
This is @Joshua's market with a longer fuse because so far, it doesn't seem like the King has died or resigned today: @/Joshua/short-fuse-is-king-charles-either-d Rumours have been swirling in the Twitterverse (and the TikTokosphere?) about King Charles: Is he dead? Is he dying? Will he imminently announce his abdication? In February the Palace announced that King Charles had been diagnosed with prostate cancer. Reportedly his cancer was caught early and he is undergoing treatment, but he is 75 years old. He recently missed attending a ceremony, instead recording a video address, but he says he is determined to attend the Trooping the Colours event in June to commemorate the birth of the British Sovereign. Still, anything can happen in 2024: @/Joshua/universal-death-market-which-public has a 23% chance of his death @/SimonGrayson/in-which-year-will-king-charles-iii is at 18% for him ceding the throne Resolves Yes if either death (by any means) or abdication before 2024 ends in the UK.
2024-03-18T11:09:52
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-14T05:21:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bs21ofQqDblxQmNWw6qW
Will RFK Jr. nominate a woman for his VP pick?
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (independent presidential candidate) name a woman to be his running mate (vice presidential selection) for the 2024 election? YES: his selection is a person who identifies as "woman" NO: his selection is a person who does not identify as "woman"
2024-03-18T10:25:25
2024-03-26T13:40:05
2024-03-26T13:40:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-oKy2HP3wVVDUekN5QOHi
Will OpenAI Sora release to the public before the next GPT version, 4.5 / 5?
First one to be available to the public, for free or for pay. Specifically in the United States. Not a closed beta or a waitlisted beta, must be available to everyone. Announcement of future public availability doesn't count.
2024-03-18T10:21:37
2024-12-09T10:27:59
2024-12-09T10:27:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cXvrbd2yoO4ijdq2AUhd
Open-source(ish) Devin equivalent by EOY 2024?
Will an open-source system match or exceed Devin's 13.9% score on SWE-bench (unassisted) by EOY 2024? I will define a system as "open-source" if: its code (inference code, agent framework, etc) is publicly available under an open-source license it uses a model which is reasonably available to the general public via an API (e.g. GPT-4, Claude-3 Opus, Gemini 1.5 Pro) OR Specifically a language model API. I don't know exactly how to define this, but just using Devin via an API would certainly not count. The current OpenAI completions/chat completions API is fine. Anything doing lots of extra inference (for tree search, chain of thought, etc) on the API side is not. it uses a model with weights available under a license allowing most personal use (e.g. the LLaMA 2 license, which is not strictly open source)
2024-03-18T07:46:43
2024-06-06T13:37:03
2024-06-06T13:37:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rCey8oljqnbA0833RMvD
🩺 Will Apple announce a watch with some kind of blood-pressure monitoring in 2024?
Apple Watch Series 10 rumored to offer limited blood pressure monitoring (AppleInsider) Bloomberg's Mark Gurman has said that "all signs point to the new Apple Watch gaining a blood-pressure checker this fall" AppleInsider Rumor Score: "Possible" Edge Cases: Apple announces, but does not yet release the feature or device in 2024: still resolves YES The feature does not give exact readings or is not approved by the FDA: still resolves YES For stricter criteria/longer timeframe: @/BrodieFerguson/will-the-apple-watch-be-able-to-pro
2024-03-18T07:44:08
2024-12-31T15:16:24
2024-12-31T15:16:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nYphOzdg9tWqCnQPKNtx
London Mayoral Election - Will Sadiq Khan have the biggest ever winning margin? (More than 15.8%)
The 2024 UK local elections are taking place on 2nd May. The most high profile election of the day will be the London Mayoral election where Sadiq Khan is hoping to win an unprecedented 3rd term as Mayor of London. While Khan is a controversial figure, his main Tory rival in this year's race is the shockingly embarasing Susan Hall. Hall has made the headlines for liking Twitter comments praising Enoch Powell and Donald Trump, for claiming to have been robbed when she lost her wallet and for her lack of knowledge when it comes to Manifold thinks that Khan will win the vote - @/cash/will-sadiq-khan-be-reelected-mayor But will he win by the largest margin ever, beating Ken Livingstone's record set in the first Mayoral election in 2000? The leaderboard currently looks like this: Ken Livingstone (2000) - 15.8% Sadiq Khan (2016) - 13.6% Ken Livingstone (2004) - 10.8% Sadiq Khan (2021) - 10.4% Boris Johnson (2008) - 6.4% Boris Johnson (2012) - 3.0% Important note - the voting system has changed since the last election. Previously, the election was run on the supplementary vote system where voters could register a first and second choice. No candidate ever received an absolute majority of the votes, so the results were always based on the other candidates' votes being redistributed to the top two candidates based on second choice votes. For 2024, this will be run as a FPTP election where voters only vote for one candidate and whichever candidate gets the most votes will win. For the purposes of this market, I will be comparing the winning candidate's vote share to the candidate who comes second to see if this is a bigger majority than Livingstone's majority after votes had been redistributed in 2000. If this is a close one, I will base it on the exact figures for 2000 and 2024 rather than the rounded figures.
2024-03-18T06:48:52
2024-05-05T03:16:43
2024-05-05T03:16:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-86IMv4jnSJXK1ttQaVCh
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,699.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024?
🏛⬆️ Will The S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Close Lower Than 4,699.99 At Any Point During Q2-Q4 2024? S&P 500 (INDEXSP:.INX) Predictions are open the entire year or until event occurs. Resolve YES according to question as soon as it happens, or NO at the end of the trading year if it does not happen. Resolves according to the display at *Google Finance The All Time High Of The S&P 500 IS NOW @ ATH 5,667.20 (Tuesday, July 16, 2024) CONTEXT [image]Source Link CLARIFICATIONS: N/A DISCLAIMER I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST. If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description. *If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
2024-03-18T05:25:31
2024-12-31T09:00:00
2024-12-31T13:02:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iqzIUcCGcJFDTkWYZvyC
Will England beat Brazil on Sat, Mar 23, 2024? - International Friendly ⚽
📅 Date: Saturday, March 23, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:00 🏆 Competition: International Friendly 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - England has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Brazil has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution.) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-18T04:52:37
2024-03-23T14:07:24
2024-03-23T14:07:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RkwCHrMlclK0XXU4k9k7
Official announcement about Apple using Google's Gemini on their devices before EOY 2024?
I will not bet in this market. Also, see same market but for OpenAI (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/official-announcement-about-apple-u-fc3b4e0ccfa3)[tweet]
2024-03-18T00:21:52
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T01:19:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2uVETi4mBqQe5WhW2SMt
Will King Charles abdicate or pass away before Reddit IPOs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T20:41:33
2024-03-21T10:48:59
2024-03-21T10:48:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w2aeqQ1XsQcPzmV3PTYi
[Short Fuse] Is King Charles either dead or announcing his abdication?
Twitter sure seems to think so but I am dubious. Resolves Yes if there is any such announcement by the end of tomorrow, pacific time. Resolves No otherwise.
2024-03-17T19:39:28
2024-03-18T23:59:00
2024-03-19T05:25:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-B9NumCc7xnew4ZrW0beV
[Short Fuse] Intense combat at al-Shifa hospital due to senior Hamas members present. Will they be killed / captured?
This market will resolve YES if the IDF operation at the al-Shifa hospital complex results in the death or capture of a named senior Hamas leader, according to reliable Western sources. I'll consider the Hamas leader "senior" if they are widely reported as "senior", and if they have significant reporting on them prior to today easily available on the internet. If there is no news about this within 1 week, resolves NO. Context: [tweet]
2024-03-17T18:40:25
2024-03-29T05:38:57
2024-03-29T05:38:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xHgW0bEHiuPPesAK5HCq
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $95,000 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T16:13:13
2024-11-26T08:23:40
2024-11-26T08:23:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5lFMJ1rtv5FanVGCNpJ0
Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Blue Monday 2025? (Jan 15)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T15:33:31
2025-01-15T20:59:00
2025-01-17T07:25:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4nVgj3ARGsar2ghLSOmy
Will Katherine Princess of Wales announce plans to divorce Prince William before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T15:12:26
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:17:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dir2fpgKaBJqNVJ4AlHa
👻 Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross more during its opening weekend than the rest of the top 5 combined?
Source: The "Weekend Domestic Chart for March 22, 2024" on the-numbers.com. Here is the the equivalent chart for the weekend of March 8: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2024/03/08. Thus "Kung Fu Panda 4" grossed $57,989,905, "Dune: Part Two" grossed $46,215,424, and so on. This market resolves YES if the gross for "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" is more than the combined sum of the grosses for all other movies in the top 5. Most likely, this will include "Dune: Part Two", "Kung Fu Panda 4", and two other smaller movies. I will use the number displayed on the website, however it is defined (note: this is the domestic opening).
2024-03-17T15:11:33
2024-03-27T08:29:41
2024-03-27T08:29:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-drJ7o7Ys0vBfq0QpaUKm
Will France be one of top 3 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:45:55
2024-08-11T08:54:47
2024-08-11T08:54:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CIP2E8PYFPjpdeo2IqNU
Will France be one of top 4 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:45:49
2024-08-11T08:30:14
2024-08-11T08:30:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5ZdlbSMxnvo1Nc8EJr5C
Will France be one of top 5 countries (number of medals won) in the summer 2024 Olympics (Paris)?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:45:24
2024-08-11T08:54:20
2024-08-11T08:54:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mAxpbMrgekCOfgP66TwW
Will both Georgia and Arizona be Red states in 2024 US elections?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:20:21
2024-11-10T16:31:46
2024-11-10T16:31:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tMfB5ObtEsF2P8V3UyhN
Will there be at least 2 presidential debates b/w Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:14:22
2024-10-15T12:02:03
2024-10-15T12:02:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-148TSAm25cmXNUPW8DXO
Will there be 3 presidential debates b/w Donald Trump and Joe Biden in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T12:14:01
2024-11-07T16:22:59
2024-11-07T16:22:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XKIyIR9rwY63KuThwhf1
Will there be an Olympics ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine?
This question will resolve YES if there a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine, and an actual stop in the vast majority of fighting from both sides, that overlaps with the 2024 Olympics in Paris for atleast one day. The Olympics are scheduled for July 26 to August 11th. Context: [tweet]
2024-03-17T09:32:57
2024-08-12T07:24:57
2024-08-12T07:24:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xcKoGrgFMCLIFNXoEvEU
Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before May 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-17T07:38:59
2024-05-01T06:41:57
2024-05-01T06:41:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BUsqcKNHgSjvfH2hrcVx
Will Jon Tester come within 5 points of winning?
losing by less than 5 percentage points or winning outright resolves yes, losing by more than 5 points resolves no
2024-03-17T03:01:05
2024-12-03T17:54:57
2024-12-03T17:54:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XMHCFl1Et3cIvzKtoivn
In 2024, will Gallup polling indicate that more than 0.5% of Americans believe AI is the most important problem?
Each month, Gallup publishes a poll asking Americans "what do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?" This market will resolve to YES if, before the end of 2024, the category most specifically referencing AI has a rounded percentage of at least 1% during any month. For the current poll, I would consider the category "advancements of computers/technology" to be referencing AI. However, if there was an explicit "AI" option I would use that one instead. This market is an updated version of @/IsaacKing/will-gallups-poll-on-americas-most
2024-03-17T00:31:02
2024-04-11T09:55:47
2024-04-11T09:55:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yi5CLp7JgIQM7D4mqLoO
Will Bitcoin hit $70K again in March 2024?
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
2024-03-16T18:43:23
2024-03-25T12:36:09
2024-03-25T12:36:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gEHIDndptKQJhjLDS2xF
Will the scientific journal "Nature" explicitly endorse Joe Biden for president in 2024?
In October 2020, the influential scientific journal "Nature" endorsed Joe Biden for president over Donald Trump. This was a controversial decision. In 2023, Nature itself published research by Floyd Jiuyun Zhang claiming that the endorsement had minimal impact on political opinions but did substantively reduce the trust of Trump supporters in science. These results suggest that political endorsement by scientific journals can undermine and polarize public confidence in the endorsing journals and the scientific community. This was followed by an editorial where Nature stood by its original decision. Political endorsements might not always win hearts and minds, but when candidates threaten a retreat from reason, science must speak out. This market resolves YES if in 2024, Nature again officially endorses Joe Biden for president.
2024-03-16T12:31:55
2024-07-21T14:57:25
2024-07-21T14:57:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XoGAsf7MADtI2IrmN4AP
Will Bitcoin hit $71K in March 2024?
Resolves to: Blockchain Mods may resolve Only prices after market creation count
2024-03-16T12:22:33
2024-03-25T15:07:07
2024-03-25T15:07:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-91mUaePn2DjTqqzC8pjo
Will Bitcoin hit $72K in March 2024?
Resolves to: Blockchain Mods may resolve Only prices after market creation count Timezone is EDT.
2024-03-16T12:22:08
2024-03-31T20:59:00
2024-03-31T21:19:20
no
MANIFOLD