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forecasting

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mani-4Sec94nD8oJqoOttuFy9
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March 2024?
Will Bitcoin truly reach 80k or not? Some analysts think so, but others do not. Choose your route.
2024-03-16T11:41:26
2024-03-31T13:59:00
2024-04-01T02:42:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dgV27axRPfYTIA7AbcF0
will bitcoin will hit 75k by April 2024
Will Bitcoin truly reach 75 or not? Some analysts think so, but others do not. Choose your route.
2024-03-16T11:30:11
2024-04-16T13:59:00
2024-04-30T17:12:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mnWMB7jgyePjFq4D6K3G
Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration?
It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to retirement (the oldest Democratic justice is Sonia Sotomayor, at 68), so they might want to wait it out. This is an extended version of https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-any-us-supreme-court-justice-r, which only went to the 2024 elections. Resolves YES if any US Supreme Court justice retires before the presidential inauguration in January 2025, regardless of the party they lean towards. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Gabrielle/will-the-democrats-control-the-us-s)
2024-03-16T10:41:42
2025-01-19T15:59:00
2025-01-19T16:29:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NWfbz6SWwl8hSE0aLGNn
Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024?
On the March 15, 2024 podcast "Upstream with Erik Torenberg", guest Alex Blania (co-founder and CEO of Tools for Humanity, the organization behind Worldcoin) predicts that the need for proof-of-personhood will become apparent 'relatively soon', along with Worldcoin scale up 'in the coming months': -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxghF8z-lmsCZegAA6s2xfD4vDzNwlLeJy?feature=shared 13:58-14:30 ERIK: What do you think people misunderstand or underappreciate or do not get about Worldcoin? ALEX: Well I think it really depends on kind of where in the curve you are...so I think the first thing is, okay this is not a problem, so you could believe that ...I think you will be proven wrong relatively soon...if you're not already are...meaning proof of person and we will need a human layer on internet -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxyJAoq9sVoa3mbkIMq0WTMcB2vWY_pJwO?feature=shared 41:33-42:13 ERIK: In closing what plugs do you have for Worldcoin...what do you want listeners to know about it...or potentially do if they're curious to learning more or get involved? ALEX: That's a good question... I think follow me and Sam on Twitter…and in the coming months just everything will scale up so I think that's that's fundamentally what you have to expect...many more countries will launch...many more devices will go live...we're still in kind of in the very very early phases of that...just follow us and and see what happens and hopefully it's going to be a great year for us -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- This market resolves to "YES" if Worldcoin reports that it has scaled up to at least 10 million World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Worldcoin tracks the number of World ID sign-ups on https://worldcoin.org/ 4,345,120 as of market creation on March 16, 2024 2,000,000 milestone announced July 13, 2023 https://worldcoin.org/blog/announcements/worldocin-passes-2-million-world-id-sign-ups-demand-increases 1,000,000 milestone announced January 13, 2023 https://worldcoin.org/blog/announcements/worldcoin-passed-1-million-sign-ups
2024-03-16T10:09:28
2024-08-15T21:59:00
2024-08-16T15:25:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HgJMt09pD5JnPNTt7rUY
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election also win the popular vote?
Pretty straightforward. Will the winner of the Presidential Election win both the Electoral Votes and Popular Votes? Or will we see a split, where the winner of the Electoral Votes receives fewer Popular Votes than their opponent? I will not bet on this market.
2024-03-16T08:45:35
2024-11-06T04:53:32
2024-11-06T04:53:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ATT0soXcpIUMrCVN2coB
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's sixth 'orbital' test flight?
SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive. This market will resolve after the completion of the sixth IFT. Resolution criteria: The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both). 'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site, when it has been announced that a catch is part of the flight programme. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid. It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective. If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO. (https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-36869f2cbfb8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-6baebb2ebbc1)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-89ffd8a6b863)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-ad6d782dd262)
2024-03-16T08:02:28
2024-11-19T14:06:27
2024-11-25T15:24:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-52oC2IxJO3eYaQScX54U
Will West Ham beat Bayern Leverkusen during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League
📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: Europa League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - West Ham has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Bayern Leverkusen has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-16T07:22:11
2024-04-11T13:52:02
2024-04-11T13:52:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ti7emh1mCNhLRCUe71EL
Will Atalanta beat Liverpool during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League
📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: Europa League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Atalanta has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Liverpool has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-16T06:46:03
2024-04-11T13:50:50
2024-04-11T13:50:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-THFyk7XTvRYE5FPr6zh6
Will Roma beat Milan during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League
📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: Europa League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Roma has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Milan has more goals 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 Match details
2024-03-16T06:38:31
2024-04-11T13:57:55
2024-04-11T13:57:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ug1kl0vLpZplEh7dv8B0
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes. If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes. I will not bet in this market.
2024-03-16T04:50:30
2025-01-01T15:59:00
2025-02-03T09:37:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VdyY0syt17iVidAV2iMj
At the end of Juneteenth will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/ Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
2024-03-15T22:46:45
2024-06-19T18:18:08
2024-06-19T18:18:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-N3KHY7KkGlvAD781QFCn
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League 2023/24?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T21:34:52
2024-05-23T14:59:00
2024-05-24T03:46:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PjtdceMH9EdpqgVpJTcw
Will Sanji fight or confront Gorosei Saint Marcus Mars (Bird Yokai Elder) in Ch 1111? OP Chapter 1110+
Will update the description/Keep up with comments. I'll try to close this out soon after spoilers arrive on Monday or Tuesday. Criteria for Yes to Win: At least one panel where Sanji exchanges words (or yells something) directly at the Gorosei Mars. This will QUALIFY the "confrontation" part of the question. Mars seems to be directly above Sanji right now. Sanji can also fly easily with Sky Walk. My guess is that Luffy and 2 Giants fight 3 Gorosei while Sanji and Zoro fight the bird and the horse respectively. Lastly, join the One Piece dashboard! More questions are easily viewable on there as well. https://manifold.markets/news/one-piece-b2abad1c?r=dHNhaXRhbWE
2024-03-15T20:24:18
2024-03-22T17:27:26
2024-03-22T17:27:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RJF4QrcQa2xm5E8TeiFP
Will there be a new leader of the UK Conservative party before the general election?
Election means held, not called, just in case they're crazy enough to combine GE campaign and leadership election!
2024-03-15T16:28:28
2024-07-04T13:38:26
2024-07-04T13:38:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9GVKJTiCCemoVRKKb0my
Will Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) close higher than $163.57 on March 22?
Tesla Inc - Daily Dashboard Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price TSLA closes at 4pm ET This market closes at 5pm ET Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled. Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $163.57 Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-03-15T15:47:17
2024-03-22T14:00:00
2024-03-22T14:21:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TlTJseACHtOZQytwCbvI
Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher than $172.62 on March 22?
Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price AAPL closes at 4pm ET This market closes at 5pm ET Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled. Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $172.62 Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-03-15T15:32:00
2024-03-22T14:00:00
2024-03-22T14:17:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-W1ZeR2DZyGreVrovmoER
Will Bitcoin hit $73K in March 2024?
Resolves to: Blockchain Mods may resolve Only prices after market creation count
2024-03-15T15:27:54
2024-03-31T21:19:42
2024-03-31T21:19:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I9H9f8WxHRKZ5pkHxYYb
Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher than $878.36 on March 22?
NVIDIA Corp - Daily Dashboard Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price NVDA closes at 4pm ET This market closes at 5pm ET Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled. Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $878.36 Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-03-15T15:21:05
2024-03-22T14:00:00
2024-03-22T14:14:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XHxCithYMcbdTFNgCRO7
Will Open AI have some type of product launch before end of day?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T12:47:28
2024-03-16T20:59:00
2024-03-23T12:54:03
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NGvr47J6cdXsrELqtCcg
Will France officially send their troops to Ukraine by June 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T12:46:56
2024-06-03T19:18:23
2024-06-03T19:18:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1CQCHrfC3Fcyh3I1de63
Will Bitcoin (BTC) go below $60,000 before April 2024?
https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/
2024-03-15T12:31:31
2024-04-01T04:52:01
2024-04-01T04:52:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-65rsTFG9dYpqZM91n7zR
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before the end of 2024?
Lots of speculation that they have already broken up.
2024-03-15T12:03:09
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T05:14:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uwctcJd8LTLi2GjNFdYU
Bitcoin (BTC) price reaches $200,000 in 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T12:02:11
2024-12-31T10:29:00
2025-01-01T04:55:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PS7u7UWIpI6RwifYI0Mk
Will 2024 be the deadliest Mount Everest season ever?
The 2023 Mount Everest season has been the deadliest on record with 18 total deaths, surpassing even the 2014 serac disaster. In response, the Nepal Ministry of Tourism announced new safety measures—including a mandatory GPS tracker chip for every climber. But the projected price of $10-15 per tracker suggests that the 'tracker' is neither GPS-capable nor a chip. It's quite possible for the 2024 season to be even more fatal than 2023. Some indicators point towards increased traffic on Everest and therefore likely increasing casualties. For one, Nepal is expected to issue 600 climbing permits, up from 454 last year. 2024 is also the final year before the price per climbing permit increases from $11,000 to $15,000 next year, which means more price-sensitive climbers may be rushing to make this year's deadline. And unlike last year, the Tibetan side of Everest will be open for climbers, increasing the traffic further. Though some Tibet-side climbers will be deterred due to the ban on supplemental oxygen, this ban makes climbing more difficult and might increase the fatality rate. Even on the Nepal side, there's been an increasing trend of oxygen canister theft, which can deprive entire groups of oxygen and leave climbers in extremely dangerous situations. On the other hand, it is well reported that many deaths in 2023 were caused by ill-prepared or overconfident climbers. It's possible that climbers in 2024 will be more careful. Climbing guide companies are also much more wary, since deaths are bad for business, and might be more assertive when forcing struggling clients to give up their summit attempts. The Tibetan oxygen ban might select for more experienced climbers overall, reducing fatality rate. Weather patterns have also become more erratic, which might shorten the safe climbing window, which could result in fewer summit attempts and fewer deaths. (Hopefully, anyway.) And, who knows, maybe the miracle GPS tracker chip might actually work. The Everest climbing season ends on June 2, 2024. This market will close on June 9th, one week after.
2024-03-15T11:59:43
2024-06-09T08:59:00
2024-06-11T09:50:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XvnJHeNu789nvw5kiYFs
Apple announces a new product in the Apple Vision lineup in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T11:50:24
2024-12-31T10:29:00
2024-12-31T16:15:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HHm5kIs1RXHghlVRXAsy
Will George RR Martin publish Winds of Winter in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T11:10:19
2024-12-31T10:29:00
2025-01-02T14:49:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UGQbDfucar8zCZVGlqn9
Champions League quarter finals - will Barcelona qualify over PSG?
The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d Real Madrid vs Manchester City - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c PSG vs Barcelona The two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April. If Barcelona qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES. If Paris Saint Germain qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO. Bet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi
2024-03-15T10:51:54
2024-04-16T15:56:58
2024-04-16T15:56:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kIbIcSAMQlkyOsPNhBj9
Champions League quarter finals - will Manchester City qualify over Real Madrid?
The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d Real Madrid vs Manchester City @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c PSG vs Barcelona @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021 The two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April. If Manchester City qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES. If Real Madrid qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO. Bet on which of the eight teams will have the largest winning margin here - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi
2024-03-15T10:49:43
2024-04-17T14:54:47
2024-04-17T14:54:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cXzeuoPuOHnoxFoqms4s
Champions League quarter finals - will Arsenal qualify over Bayern Munich?
The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made: Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil Atlético Madrid vs A Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d Real Madrid vs Manchester City @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-0992b20f339c PSG vs Barcelona @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-520b00739021 The two legs take place on 9th/10th April and 16th/17th April. If Arsenal qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to YES. If Bayern Munich qualify for the semi-finals, this market resolves to NO. Bet on which of the eight teams will have the biggest winning margin here: @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-whi
2024-03-15T10:46:03
2024-04-17T14:52:13
2024-04-17T14:52:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sMo1RhwrFX7nqh3RKaVK
New Eminem album in 2024?
not a re-release of an old album
2024-03-15T10:21:13
2024-07-12T12:14:07
2024-07-12T12:14:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nsO8yQmO6mrN7GaY4bI2
Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)?
If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas or to a few handpicked creators. This is about the general public.
2024-03-15T09:23:07
2024-11-30T13:54:18
2024-11-30T13:54:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nN1kmCYlniJdj3DTUwiF
Will Bitcoin still be above $69K on both 6/9 AND 9/6? (June 9th and Sept 6th)
Bitcon has to reach a value greater than $69000 at least once on the two dates
2024-03-15T09:04:11
2024-09-06T20:59:00
2024-09-06T21:02:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1aEnP2eYusvb2DO0ywJ3
Will "Civil War" (2024) have a higher Metacritic score than "Captain America: Civil War"? (>75)
"Civil War" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/civil-war/ I will resolve based on the Metascore score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 26th (two weeks after release). The Metascore for "Captain America: Civil War" is 75. This market resolves YES if "Civil War" (2024) has a Metascore of 76 or higher. Details: NOTE: "Civil War" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Metascore could shift quite a bit. I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). Example: the Metascore for Alex Garland's earlier (masterpiece) "Ex Machina" is currently 78. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/aDyQxtg0V2w)
2024-03-15T08:57:46
2024-04-26T06:45:01
2024-04-26T06:45:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3BwUoIHUaxg7aMUfSVnm
Will "Civil War" (2024) have >82% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes?
"Civil War" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/civil_war_2024 I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 26th (two weeks after release). Details: NOTE: "Civil War" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Rotten Tomatoes score could shift quite a bit. I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). Example: the Tomatometer for Alex Garland's earlier (masterpiece) "Ex Machina" is currently 92%. (https://www.youtube.com/embed/aDyQxtg0V2w)
2024-03-15T08:53:35
2024-04-26T11:06:12
2024-04-26T11:06:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SUvgT2lRpTDZwzVygppl
Will Twitter ban pornography by the end of 2024?
It seems that there has been a recent push against NSFW content on a variety of platforms, likely starting from payment processors, in the wake of Internet censorship bills out of North Carolina and Texas, as well as pushes for the passage of KOSA. Major websites like Patreon and Gumroad have started cracking down heavily on nsfw creators or have decided to ban it altogether, respectively. Twitter is currently one of very few platforms that allows NSFW content. Will it change that in 2024? Any Twitter policy outright prohibiting pornographic materials or anything similar will resolve this yes. Twitter is that site that you tweet on, no matter what name it's going by.
2024-03-15T08:42:31
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-06T11:07:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HH4IyL6PSDN5G7xyZX8D
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000 in March 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T07:27:33
2024-03-31T20:59:00
2024-03-31T21:12:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JXyHzt1v8wldfeffZNzY
Will bitcoin hit a new ATH before the end of the month ?
[image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
2024-03-15T07:16:40
2024-03-31T19:59:00
2024-04-01T02:23:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bLPsSJcgXd5MSlTlC2OY
[Polymarket] TikTok banned in the US by June 30?
This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/tiktok-banned-in-the-us-by-june-30/tiktok-banned-in-the-us-by-june-30?tid=1710510356692). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market. The description of the original market: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."
2024-03-15T06:48:47
2024-07-01T13:59:00
2024-07-23T14:09:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S34AT9UEcamzQZvJI7Mo
Will bitcoin surpass $111,111 before the end of 2024?
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD .....
2024-03-15T06:34:26
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T17:53:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GwvPT7SXdQuP3LaYl3ia
Will bitcoin surpass $111,111 before the end of 2024?
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD ..
2024-03-15T06:34:16
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T05:29:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WAgYtkeP7lFOlRqS1DBO
Will Reddit’s share price be at least 10% higher a week after the IPO?
Reddit is expected to have an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of shares on March 21st. The IPO price per share is estimated to be between 31 and 34. Will the share price on the open secondary market be at least 10% higher than the IPO price at closing on March 28th, a week after the IPO date? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/01/reddit-seeking-a-valuation-of-up-to-6point5-billion-in-ipo.html
2024-03-15T05:33:14
2024-03-27T20:59:00
2024-03-28T07:03:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FRohjVdxgvcgHGdc6HFD
Will J.J. McCarthy be selected in the top five picks of the 2024 NFL Draft?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-15T00:45:36
2024-04-25T21:53:53
2024-04-25T21:53:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JPWf1e5y7EjmFiyS3TVs
Will Nikki Haley endorse Biden?
If Nikki Haley endorses Joe Biden at any point before November 5th Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no.
2024-03-15T00:29:45
2024-11-05T20:59:00
2024-11-06T05:06:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UqBQ8SkJZpHRgjSNFxUk
Will the next Chat GPT version 4.5 or 5 release by the end of April Fools?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T23:26:14
2024-04-01T20:59:00
2024-04-01T21:07:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-T3h4Udi7sUcOSSip5SD3
Assuming the Tiktok bill passes the Senate, will Bytedance sell Tiktok to an American company?
If the recent bill to ban Tiktok passes the Senate and is enacted, will the parent company of Tiktok, Bytedance, sell Tiktok or a part of Tiktok to an American company? If the bill does not pass the Senate this will resolve N/A
2024-03-14T23:00:43
2025-02-01T01:59:00
2025-02-22T07:13:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TsfRjS4Bo92zqDLln8J9
Conditional on Kristaps Porzingis missing at least one playoff game due to injury, will the Celtics win the NBA title?
The sportswriter Dan Devine recently wrote an article titled "Why Kristaps Porziņģis is the key to the Celtics' title hopes": With the addition of Porzingis’ varied scoring game, a Celtics attack that was below league-average in fourth-quarter scoring last season has now jumped up to eighth. A group that finished 11th last season in scoring efficiency in the “clutch” — when the score’s within five points in the last five minutes — is up to fifth. However, Porzingis has an extensive injury history, and many fear that he won't be available for the playoffs. How much impact impact would a Kristaps Porzingis injury have? If Kristaps Porzingis does not miss any playoff games where injury is reported by the media as the cause, this market resolves N/A. Otherwise, it resolves YES if the Boston Celtics win the 2023-2024 NBA championship, and NO if they do not win the title. Kristaps Porzingis needs to miss at least one full game, and he needs to show up in the Celtics injury report (example from Twitter last year), for it to count. This is a conditional market: it pairs with a sister market to estimate the impact of a potential Porzingis injury on the Celtics' title hopes. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/conditional-on-kristaps-porzingis-n)
2024-03-14T20:37:22
2024-06-17T21:15:45
2024-06-17T21:15:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WG4b7tbJByXjC1no12iC
Will Joe Biden win President again?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T20:13:17
2024-09-03T20:33:19
2024-09-03T20:33:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-c7KfCKC8LLs92EhybxKO
Will 2024 see a major, viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case, either in the US or globally?
This explicitly EXCLUDES memes and lighthearted jokes that go viral, such as Will Smith eating spaghetti. This is about disinformation that’s intended to do harm. See the definitions for more: 2024: Refers to the year in question. Major: Significant in scale or impact. Malicious: Intended to harm or deceive. AI-generated: Created or fabricated by artificial intelligence systems. Disinformation case: An instance where false information is deliberately spread to mislead. In the US: Occurring within the United States. Globally: Having worldwide reach or implications.
2024-03-14T18:51:23
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-02-25T15:02:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AIf8YviqNDqRWzWny7mi
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T15:35:29
2024-12-11T14:33:15
2024-12-11T14:33:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RVoIehlN008OrKYoH0bS
Will the 2024 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way?
by my judgement
2024-03-14T15:28:06
2024-12-12T10:21:07
2024-12-12T10:21:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BidtOwNiKXdBG8c8G5PT
Will the price of Bitcoin reach $95,000 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T13:29:26
2024-11-20T20:10:29
2024-11-20T20:10:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2gMTzgNtBTiIyXX8u2ss
Will Bayer Leverkusen win the 2023-2024 Europa League?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T13:25:53
2024-05-22T14:20:59
2024-05-22T14:20:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-02art7cOf40tVYBd3LrH
Will Netanyahu's coalition collapse by the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if at any point in time in 2024, the coalition led by Netanyahu loses its majority in the Knesset. Not for passing a specific law, but the majority they need to keep things running. This will almost certainly force early elections, but those will likely happen months later. In the meantime, Netanyahu would stay as prime minster.
2024-03-14T12:04:16
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T06:14:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ouIDMrHvfag981DxI2iu
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of Anzac Day? (April 25)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T08:51:36
2024-04-25T20:59:00
2024-04-25T21:14:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TSLkU6wLsDkbDdnU9jdR
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-14T08:36:12
2024-10-11T13:32:54
2024-10-11T13:32:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EwAVZEhLe0rqmSYXqCVZ
⏳ Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I before TikTok is banned or sold?
Cannabis: (https://manifold.markets/embed/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-cannabis-be-removed-f)TikTok: (https://manifold.markets/embed/ZoharJackson/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-by)(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/at-eoy-2024-will-bytedance-control)
2024-03-14T08:25:25
2025-01-19T09:52:53
2025-01-19T09:52:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7WuQqtT8qkwsS71jkY3I
Will GPT-4's successor be announced today?
It's March 14, anniversary of GPT-4's release. Doesn't matter what it's called (GPT-4.5, GPT-5, something else) as long as it's the new flagship model. Resolves YES if it's officially announced on March 14 (anywhere in the world). Resolves NO otherwise. Gentle people, place your bets!
2024-03-14T03:49:04
2024-03-15T03:59:00
2024-03-15T04:07:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ngM2g9vmyXALypDDj6lF
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote?
If Donald Trump wins the popular vote but loses the EC vote, or loses the popular vote but wins the EC vote, this question will resolve to yes. If Trump wins both the EC vote and the popular vote, or loses both the popular vote and EC vote, this market will resolve to no. IMPORTANT: EC votes will be counted as if there were no faithless electors, even if there were some.
2024-03-14T01:14:52
2024-11-08T08:31:47
2024-11-08T08:31:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U7idMo98OQwCY3AqPJg3
Will RFK Jr. choose Aaron Rodgers as his running mate for POTUS?
RFK Jr has said he will announce his Vice president pick on March 26th, it is rumored that Aaron Rogers, the current starting quarterback for the New York Jets, is on the short list. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-considering-aaron-rodgers-jesse-ventura-possible-running-mates-rcna143090
2024-03-13T22:57:17
2024-03-26T23:59:00
2024-03-27T01:49:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-idN76m5nmPs9N8oyPYdK
Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Palestine conflict?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T22:49:52
2024-10-11T16:41:27
2024-10-11T16:41:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2eAIeOziI2dsJBH2Ehsc
Will any more Israeli hostages held by Hamas return alive in 2024? (Starting in March 2024)
As of this question being made in early March 2024, at least two hostages have gotten back alive in 2024 (Fernando Simon Marman and Louis Har)
2024-03-13T20:02:59
2024-06-09T10:02:27
2024-06-09T10:02:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cRaT9LVLkXHu3X3I2PyY
Will Aaron Rodgers be RFK Jrs VP
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T18:18:41
2024-03-26T14:39:28
2024-03-26T14:39:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-92s4lwxKAavKhemxlV97
Will Bitcoin hit $76K in March 2024?
Resolves to: Blockchain Mods may resolve
2024-03-13T18:08:22
2024-03-30T23:59:00
2024-03-31T21:19:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-08wROc3lxFdt48cySoEU
Will OpenAI announce something product-related tomorrow (3/14)?
OpenAI released GPT-4 on 3/14/23. Will they announce anything tomorrow? Very lenient on what it could be. Updated GPT-4, Jukebox V2, release date for GPT-5, whatever. As long as it's directly related to a product and not, eg, something about a lawsuit, the board, partnerships with news organizations. I won't bet in this market, except for the last bet right before resolution if resolution is obvious.
2024-03-13T17:11:07
2024-03-14T23:59:00
2024-03-15T00:05:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o8weVYven1Csetz4Gu08
⚽ Will West Ham beat Aston Villa during regular time on Sun, Mar 17, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
⚽ West Ham vs Aston Villa 📅 Date: Sunday, March 17, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - West Ham has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Aston Villa has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-03-13T17:01:41
2024-03-17T10:00:00
2024-03-17T10:01:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ezLwP0wLInbno2W49FvR
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $100,000 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T15:53:18
2024-12-05T15:39:05
2024-12-05T15:39:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8LuOVSom2pi6DasnIvKH
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $90,000 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T15:53:01
2024-11-14T18:25:58
2024-11-14T18:25:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zGc3CB4jV2ykzEUgcmqE
Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before June 2024?
This market resolves Yes if OpenAI broadly releases the successor to GPT-4 before June 2024. Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT-3 to GPT-3.5 does count. It must be released to the general public, though it can still be in open beta and it can still be behind a paywall or require a subscription. If no such model is released before June 1st (PT), this market resolves No. For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard. @/ms/when-will-openai-release-a-more-cap @/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp
2024-03-13T15:47:15
2024-05-13T11:50:45
2024-05-14T08:55:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cBRsT3jXysbOF6x5kLSq
Will NVIDIA 50 series release before 2025
Will NVIDIA release their 50 series chipset before 1st of January 2025. It must be possible to buy.
2024-03-13T15:08:17
2025-01-01T15:59:00
2025-01-23T21:42:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iPDzWVb5skNZJUxTbAyF
Will Congress and Senate Pass a TikTok Ban Bill by April 30, 2024?
See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets : https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template -- Introduction: On March 13, 2024, the House passed a bill proposing a nationwide ban on TikTok if its China-based owner does not divest its stake, highlighting national security concerns. This legislative action underscores the escalating scrutiny over the app's ownership and its implications for user data security. The future of this bill, particularly its passage through the Senate, remains uncertain as of the latest developments. YES-Qualifying Headlines: "Senate Approves Bill Leading to TikTok Ban, Awaiting Presidential Signature" "Congressional Approval: TikTok Ban Bill Passed by Both House and Senate" "Bipartisan Support Seals Fate of TikTok with Congressional Bill Passage" "TikTok Ban Bill Clears Final Hurdle in Senate, Set to Become Law" "Legislative Victory: TikTok Ban Bill Successfully Passed by Congress and Senate" NO-Qualifying Headlines and Edge Cases: "Senate Delays Vote on TikTok Ban Bill, Future Uncertain" "Congressional Bill on TikTok Ban Faces Opposition, Stalls in Senate Committees" "TikTok Ban Bill Rejected by Senate, Fails to Pass " "TikTok Ban Bill Passage Halted Amidst Bipartisan Concerns, No Senate Vote" "No Agreement Reached: TikTok Ban Bill Expires Without Senate Approval" "Senate Adjourns Without Voting on TikTok Ban Bill" These examples illustrate the specific criteria for the prediction market's resolution, focusing on the legislative process's completion regarding the TikTok ban bill by the specified date. Prompt to resolve market <paste in market above rules above> Using the above, will the following headline qualify? <paste in headline + lead paragraph> The prompt to resolve the market is submitted 3 times using temperature 0 via the OpenAI API to the latest GPT model broadly available. It must qualify all three times in order to resolve as YES. Note that only headlines published before the end date in the title and from the following sources can be used: Reuters, WSJ, AP, washingtonpost, NYT, BBC, ABC, NBC, CBS, and The Economist. Check out more headline markets here - https://manifold.markets/gpt_news_headlines
2024-03-13T14:27:17
2024-04-23T22:16:30
2024-04-23T22:16:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-T2qXQ4VIJwRiZJIb0rIH
Will Joe Biden attend the 2024 Paris Olympics?
Criteria should be pretty self-explanatory. I would say, he doesn't need to be physically in the stands watching a particular sporting event. If he is in Paris during the Olympic Games (for instance, meeting with Macron) that would be sufficient to resolve this YES. Watching the games on TV from the US would not be sufficient. Sending the first lady or VP would also not be sufficient.
2024-03-13T13:57:15
2024-08-11T21:59:00
2024-08-12T09:29:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hKarEmhv53R104O4EpEJ
Will google ($goog) be over or at 150 by the end of June?
00:00 30.06.2024
2024-03-13T11:51:59
2024-06-30T12:41:36
2024-06-30T12:41:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rp2PHbHwLRvxMsiw1QCs
Will the price of Solana (sol-usd) be over or at 200 at the end of April?
00:00 on the 30.04.2024
2024-03-13T11:45:22
2024-04-30T14:59:00
2024-04-30T20:01:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cOuzi8aj7h3cBFV07Nbs
Will the TikTok ban pass the Senate by the end of March?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T09:28:00
2024-03-31T23:59:00
2024-04-01T08:33:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-k140nIGQ66PafKvySKas
Will the EU AI Act enter into force before the end of May 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-13T07:47:11
2024-05-26T19:53:26
2024-05-26T19:53:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-O50e6qWQ7hzyeTq5JKSn
Will Biden drop out of the presidential race before the DNC?
Resolves YES if Biden or his campaign officially announces he is withdrawing or suspending his campaign for 2024 US President, by the end of the last day of the Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 22). Any circumstances that force his withdrawal (e.g. death) count as YES as well. Otherwise resolves NO.
2024-03-13T06:36:30
2024-07-21T12:59:06
2024-07-21T12:59:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QmkKwkTBxl5h5xqmPWim
Will Cognition Labs' Devin be used by a big company by the end of 2024?
Resolves to yes if by the end of 2024, a publicly-listed company with a market cap of over US$5 billion is publicly confirmed to be using Devin to write code, and they haven't stated that the deployment is only experimental.
2024-03-13T05:04:28
2024-12-31T04:59:00
2025-01-07T15:53:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YTrwWqHwQkXmVpih3Yim
[Polymarket] Israel ground offensive in Rafah by March 31?
This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-march-31?tid=1710318827744). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market. The description of the original market: "This market will resolve to “Yes” if by March 31, 2024, 11:59 PM Palestine Standard Time (UTC +2), the New York Times or WSJ reports that Israel has initiated a ground offensive within Rafah. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Reports of small raids or special operations will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source of this market will be reporting from the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal."
2024-03-13T01:36:09
2024-04-01T13:59:00
2024-04-04T00:49:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-isxZ3HV7hOA0H6rYNBVi
Will Reddit be valued more than Pinterest at the end of 2024?
Reddit is going public in March 2024. The last social media company to go public was Pinterest. At the time of writing, Pinterest is valued $23.68B. This question will resolve yes, if at the end of 2024, Reddit is valued more than Pinterest (NYSE: PINS)
2024-03-13T00:57:50
2024-12-31T04:59:00
2025-01-04T06:02:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-z25JhWoUtb0dDyaYj3Po
[short fuse] Will Rand Paul filibuster the Tiktok bill?
Resolves based on Rand Paul filibustering the Tiktok bill currently making its way through the House. He needs to actually filibuster or object to unanimous consent (as he did in 2023 to Hawley's bill), not just threaten to. If the bill never makes it to the Senate, resolves No.
2024-03-12T23:55:16
2024-04-24T04:23:14
2024-04-24T04:23:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eVqAT31bFWfEFZBHiryA
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2023-2024 NBA championship?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T22:57:09
2024-06-17T20:05:15
2024-06-17T20:05:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bNfgvwXP7LyVNlx5Rfk9
Will Lauren Boebert resign from her current position in Congress?
Will she resign from her current position by the November election?
2024-03-12T20:49:41
2024-11-05T05:01:20
2024-11-05T05:01:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JXVlP2jy9p68bP0QaGSa
If Trump wins, will he "free" January 6th prisoners in his first month?
Trump has promised to "free" / pardon January 6th prisoners as one of the first acts of his possible presidency: https://www.axios.com/2024/03/12/trump-free-jan-6-rioters-election-vow. If Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in, and in his first month in power, issues a pardon or clemency that results in any January 6th prisoner serving a sentence directly related to January 6th to be released from prison, this market will resolve YES. If Trump is sworn in but doesn't take the actions listed above, this market resolves NO. If Trump is not sworn in, this market resolves N/A and every trader gets their mana back.
2024-03-12T19:17:23
2025-02-03T09:13:24
2025-02-03T09:13:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3axSJr0KAOwCbYfkLaf9
⚽ Will Fulham beat Tottenham during regular time on Sat, Mar 16, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
⚽ Fulham vs Tottenham 📅 Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Fulham has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Tottenham has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-03-12T17:02:34
2024-03-16T13:30:00
2024-03-16T14:01:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vb5AnzBkOPp9Wyi9G9rv
⚽ Will Burnley beat Brentford during regular time on Sat, Mar 16, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
⚽ Burnley vs Brentford 📅 Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Burnley has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Brentford has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-03-12T17:02:23
2024-03-16T11:00:00
2024-03-16T11:01:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PV6JxhOnt0bxhjSZPRXj
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $80,000 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T16:46:37
2024-11-11T12:20:52
2024-11-11T12:20:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fz4NVLDCrwWAGH9ZdrDd
Will OpenAI release a new GPT model on Pi Day 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T16:40:24
2024-03-15T00:00:00
2024-03-15T03:34:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FjAYlRlEmcz4ACUfSAOn
Will Real Madrid win the 2023-2024 Champions League?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T16:07:28
2024-06-01T20:59:00
2024-06-01T22:22:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-OxDfRt4NuQPs1Y3NEJqy
Will Manchester City win the 2024-2025 Champions League?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T16:06:49
2025-03-08T13:37:06
2025-03-08T13:37:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9Cq2a4jG68YNm4URdjn9
Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 Champions League?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T16:03:57
2024-04-20T05:52:54
2024-04-20T05:52:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1Z5JTWsWOPCGmpVXwpaJ
Will Mira Murati work at OpenAI at the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T13:20:25
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T03:55:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-crKwGrN6g4SBLKHPoeXg
Will MONKEY MAN have >85% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? (upcoming Dev Patel action thriller 🐒)
"Monkey Man" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/monkey_man I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 19th (two weeks after release). Details: NOTE: "Monkey Man" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still running this market because I expect many reviews to be held until release, so the Rotten Tomatoes score could shift quite a bit. This is based on critics, not audiences. I will use whatever precision is listed by Rotten Tomatoes (typically an integer percentage, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). Example: the Tomatometer for "The Green Knight" is currently 89% (although audiences rated it terribly). Context: "Monkey Man" is an upcoming action thriller (releasing April 5th), directed by and starring Dev Patel. It was originally intended for Netflix but somehow Jordan Peele pushed for it to get a theatrical release. The trailer is pretty cool: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/g8zxiB5Qhsc)
2024-03-12T13:00:50
2024-04-19T15:49:06
2024-04-19T15:49:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Hp7O7Hcpf3atqdJuMWIx
Will NVIDIA stock close lower at March end, than it did at March start?
If the close on March 31 or whatever the last day for trading is in march is less than the closing price on 1st march - this is yes.
2024-03-12T12:41:46
2024-04-04T19:33:54
2024-04-04T19:33:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-trG1B15sl4EkpJpxZ2fP
Will the Rabbit R1 Suck?
Once the R1 is in the hands of consumers (5K+ units delivered), and the hype has died down (~1 month later), will it suck? (End date may be adjusted accordingly, if there are shipping delays) Suckiness is of course entirely subjective, so this market will be resolved via a future manifold poll, titled simply "Does the Rabbit R1 Suck"? The poll will run for 1 week, and the description of the poll will clarify that the poll is assessing suckiness at that point in time, and not speculation that it might improve in the future. I might bet in this market. Poll: https://manifold.markets/retr0id/does-the-rabbit-r1-suck
2024-03-12T11:54:58
2024-05-23T16:59:00
2024-05-24T11:13:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dgAwNqeOgcdOxIz93xYm
Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-03-12T11:29:22
2024-10-31T19:47:08
2024-10-31T19:47:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hTFpLdfbhEtRT0ckyU39
Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" (2024) have a Metacritic score >50?
"Ghostbusers: Frozen Empire" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/ghostbusters-frozen-empire/ I will resolve based on the Metascore on April 5th (two weeks after release). For reference, the current Metascore for "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" is 45, while Ghostbusters (2016) earned a score of 60. Other details: This is based on critics, not audiences. I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, and ties resolve NO). I don't expect the score to be shifting much two weeks after release, but just in case, it will resolve based on what I see whenever I happen to check on that date.
2024-03-12T07:02:22
2024-04-05T12:31:02
2024-04-05T12:31:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MyMgykvAtZOXGNbFhFbR
Will someone be slapped at the 2025 Oscars?
Note this is 2025 Must happen on-stage during main official live broadcast. Real or fake/joke slaps will count.
2024-03-12T03:28:30
2025-03-06T08:49:34
2025-03-06T08:49:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hFrtsjBsexDakJVEIvxr
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellite(s) to orbit in Starship–SuperHeavy's fourth flight?
Resolves on whether the fourth flight of the Starship–Superheavy vehicle is intended to deliver one or more Starlink satellites to orbit. Success is not required, only that at the time the launch takes place, deploying a payload of one or more Starlinks to orbit is part of the flight plan. The Starlink satellites(s) can be any model, as long as SpaceX calls them Starlink satellites. A flight counts as a vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust of its engines. Thus IFT-3, if it lifts off, will be the third flight. If it doesn't lift off and instead explodes on the pad or whatnot, then the next flight that does lift off is the third flight, and the one after that the fourth flight, pertaining to this market.
2024-03-12T02:09:44
2024-06-06T15:03:59
2024-06-06T15:03:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UemQLPfY3Qewv0YykI8Y
Will Andrew Tate appear in court in the UK in 2024?
The UK have issued a European arrest warrant for Andrew Tate and his brother and they have been detained by Romanian authorities: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68542187 The arrest warrant was issued by Westminster Magistrates Court in London. Will this result in Tate appearing in court in the UK? Resolution criteria: Appearing in a UK court for any other reason still counts for this market Appearing in a UK court remotely is sufficient for this market Appearing in a non-UK court for UK crimes does not count
2024-03-12T02:06:44
2025-01-04T03:35:51
2025-01-04T03:35:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-unBUGj0dh4qVNTmRsOnw
Will Starship–SuperHeavy's fourth flight have a planned trajectory that is fully orbital?
Resolves on statements from SpaceX establishing whether the planned trajectory of the fourth flight of the Starshsip–SuperHeavy vehicle is unambiguously orbital - that is, a trajectory in which the vehicle would, without further engine burns, complete at least one full orbit around the Earth. Since plans can change, this market will not resolve until SpaceX officially announces a NET launch date on their website at https://www.spacex.com/launches/. If official and current information from SpaceX at or after that time establishes the planned flight trajectory, then this market will resolve accordingly, otherwise it will stay open until SpaceX makes the planned trajectory known. If we don't know as of a month after launch or destruction of the vehicle, this market resolves N/A.
2024-03-12T01:59:16
2024-05-24T18:34:25
2024-05-24T18:34:25
no
MANIFOLD