id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-4Sec94nD8oJqoOttuFy9 | Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March 2024? | Will Bitcoin truly reach 80k or not? Some analysts think so, but others do not. Choose your route. | 2024-03-16T11:41:26 | 2024-03-31T13:59:00 | 2024-04-01T02:42:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dgV27axRPfYTIA7AbcF0 | will bitcoin will hit 75k by April 2024 | Will Bitcoin truly reach 75 or not? Some analysts think so, but others do not. Choose your route. | 2024-03-16T11:30:11 | 2024-04-16T13:59:00 | 2024-04-30T17:12:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mnWMB7jgyePjFq4D6K3G | Will any US Supreme Court justice retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration? | It has been suggested that some of the Democratic-leaning Supreme Court justices will retire before the 2025 presidential inauguration, while the Democratic Party control the Senate and the Presidency, so that they don't risk dying and being replaced by a GOP justice. However, the justices are not particularly close to... | 2024-03-16T10:41:42 | 2025-01-19T15:59:00 | 2025-01-19T16:29:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NWfbz6SWwl8hSE0aLGNn | Worldcoin scales up to at least 10M World ID sign-ups by August 15, 2024? | On the March 15, 2024 podcast "Upstream with Erik Torenberg", guest Alex Blania (co-founder and CEO of Tools for Humanity, the organization behind Worldcoin) predicts that the need for proof-of-personhood will become apparent 'relatively soon', along with Worldcoin scale up 'in the coming months':
---------------------... | 2024-03-16T10:09:28 | 2024-08-15T21:59:00 | 2024-08-16T15:25:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HgJMt09pD5JnPNTt7rUY | Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election also win the popular vote? | Pretty straightforward.
Will the winner of the Presidential Election win both the Electoral Votes and Popular Votes? Or will we see a split, where the winner of the Electoral Votes receives fewer Popular Votes than their opponent?
I will not bet on this market. | 2024-03-16T08:45:35 | 2024-11-06T04:53:32 | 2024-11-06T04:53:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ATT0soXcpIUMrCVN2coB | Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's sixth 'orbital' test flight? | SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the sixth IFT.
... | 2024-03-16T08:02:28 | 2024-11-19T14:06:27 | 2024-11-25T15:24:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-52oC2IxJO3eYaQScX54U | Will West Ham beat Bayern Leverkusen during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League | 📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Europa League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- West Ham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams ha... | 2024-03-16T07:22:11 | 2024-04-11T13:52:02 | 2024-04-11T13:52:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ti7emh1mCNhLRCUe71EL | Will Atalanta beat Liverpool during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League | 📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Europa League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Atalanta has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams ha... | 2024-03-16T06:46:03 | 2024-04-11T13:50:50 | 2024-04-11T13:50:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-THFyk7XTvRYE5FPr6zh6 | Will Roma beat Milan during regular time on Thu, Apr 11, 2024? - Europa League | 📅 Date: Thursday, April 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Europa League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Roma has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have a... | 2024-03-16T06:38:31 | 2024-04-11T13:57:55 | 2024-04-11T13:57:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ug1kl0vLpZplEh7dv8B0 | Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025? | https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
If GPT-4.5 and reaches 150 Elo above GPT-4 market resolves yes.
If at any point any llm / chatbot reaches this threshold, market resolves yes.
I will not bet in this market.
| 2024-03-16T04:50:30 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-02-03T09:37:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VdyY0syt17iVidAV2iMj | At the end of Juneteenth will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight? | Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/ | 2024-03-15T22:46:45 | 2024-06-19T18:18:08 | 2024-06-19T18:18:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N3KHY7KkGlvAD781QFCn | Will Bayer Leverkusen win the Europa League 2023/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T21:34:52 | 2024-05-23T14:59:00 | 2024-05-24T03:46:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PjtdceMH9EdpqgVpJTcw | Will Sanji fight or confront Gorosei Saint Marcus Mars (Bird Yokai Elder) in Ch 1111? OP Chapter 1110+ | Will update the description/Keep up with comments.
I'll try to close this out soon after spoilers arrive on Monday or Tuesday.
Criteria for Yes to Win: At least one panel where Sanji exchanges words (or yells something) directly at the Gorosei Mars. This will QUALIFY the "confrontation" part of the question.
Mars s... | 2024-03-15T20:24:18 | 2024-03-22T17:27:26 | 2024-03-22T17:27:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RJF4QrcQa2xm5E8TeiFP | Will there be a new leader of the UK Conservative party before the general election? | Election means held, not called, just in case they're crazy enough to combine GE campaign and leadership election! | 2024-03-15T16:28:28 | 2024-07-04T13:38:26 | 2024-07-04T13:38:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9GVKJTiCCemoVRKKb0my | Will Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) close higher than $163.57 on March 22? | Tesla Inc - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
TSLA closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 5pm ET
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $163.57
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN... | 2024-03-15T15:47:17 | 2024-03-22T14:00:00 | 2024-03-22T14:21:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TlTJseACHtOZQytwCbvI | Will Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) close higher than $172.62 on March 22? | Apple Inc - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 5pm ET
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $172.62
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN... | 2024-03-15T15:32:00 | 2024-03-22T14:00:00 | 2024-03-22T14:17:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W1ZeR2DZyGreVrovmoER | Will Bitcoin hit $73K in March 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
Only prices after market creation count
| 2024-03-15T15:27:54 | 2024-03-31T21:19:42 | 2024-03-31T21:19:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I9H9f8WxHRKZ5pkHxYYb | Will Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) close higher than $878.36 on March 22? | NVIDIA Corp - Daily Dashboard
Resolves according to Nasdaq Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm ET
This market closes at 5pm ET
Initial close price is preliminary, this market is resolved once it's settled.
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than $878.36
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE ... | 2024-03-15T15:21:05 | 2024-03-22T14:00:00 | 2024-03-22T14:14:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XHxCithYMcbdTFNgCRO7 | Will Open AI have some type of product launch before end of day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T12:47:28 | 2024-03-16T20:59:00 | 2024-03-23T12:54:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NGvr47J6cdXsrELqtCcg | Will France officially send their troops to Ukraine by June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T12:46:56 | 2024-06-03T19:18:23 | 2024-06-03T19:18:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1CQCHrfC3Fcyh3I1de63 | Will Bitcoin (BTC) go below $60,000 before April 2024? | https://www.coindesk.com/price/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-15T12:31:31 | 2024-04-01T04:52:01 | 2024-04-01T04:52:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-65rsTFG9dYpqZM91n7zR | Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before the end of 2024? | Lots of speculation that they have already broken up. | 2024-03-15T12:03:09 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:14:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uwctcJd8LTLi2GjNFdYU | Bitcoin (BTC) price reaches $200,000 in 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T12:02:11 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-01T04:55:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PS7u7UWIpI6RwifYI0Mk | Will 2024 be the deadliest Mount Everest season ever? | The 2023 Mount Everest season has been the deadliest on record with 18 total deaths, surpassing even the 2014 serac disaster.
In response, the Nepal Ministry of Tourism announced new safety measures—including a mandatory GPS tracker chip for every climber. But the projected price of $10-15 per tracker suggests that t... | 2024-03-15T11:59:43 | 2024-06-09T08:59:00 | 2024-06-11T09:50:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XvnJHeNu789nvw5kiYFs | Apple announces a new product in the Apple Vision lineup in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T11:50:24 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2024-12-31T16:15:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HHm5kIs1RXHghlVRXAsy | Will George RR Martin publish Winds of Winter in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T11:10:19 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-02T14:49:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UGQbDfucar8zCZVGlqn9 | Champions League quarter finals - will Barcelona qualify over PSG? | The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil
Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d
Real Madrid vs Manchester City - @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-qu... | 2024-03-15T10:51:54 | 2024-04-16T15:56:58 | 2024-04-16T15:56:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kIbIcSAMQlkyOsPNhBj9 | Champions League quarter finals - will Manchester City qualify over Real Madrid? | The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil
Atlético Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d
Real Madrid vs Manchester City @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quar... | 2024-03-15T10:49:43 | 2024-04-17T14:54:47 | 2024-04-17T14:54:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cXzeuoPuOHnoxFoqms4s | Champions League quarter finals - will Arsenal qualify over Bayern Munich? | The draw for the quarter finals of the Champions League has been made:
Arsenal vs Bayern Munich @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil
Atlético Madrid vs A Borussia Dortmund @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-quarter-finals-wil-55891440528d
Real Madrid vs Manchester City @/SimonGrayson/champions-league-qu... | 2024-03-15T10:46:03 | 2024-04-17T14:52:13 | 2024-04-17T14:52:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sMo1RhwrFX7nqh3RKaVK | New Eminem album in 2024? | not a re-release of an old album | 2024-03-15T10:21:13 | 2024-07-12T12:14:07 | 2024-07-12T12:14:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nsO8yQmO6mrN7GaY4bI2 | Will OpenAI release their video generation model "SORA" to the general public before the US elections (2024)? | If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date
Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas or to a few handpicked creators. This is about the general public. | 2024-03-15T09:23:07 | 2024-11-30T13:54:18 | 2024-11-30T13:54:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nN1kmCYlniJdj3DTUwiF | Will Bitcoin still be above $69K on both 6/9 AND 9/6? (June 9th and Sept 6th) | Bitcon has to reach a value greater than $69000 at least once on the two dates | 2024-03-15T09:04:11 | 2024-09-06T20:59:00 | 2024-09-06T21:02:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1aEnP2eYusvb2DO0ywJ3 | Will "Civil War" (2024) have a higher Metacritic score than "Captain America: Civil War"? (>75) | "Civil War" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/civil-war/
I will resolve based on the Metascore score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 26th (two weeks after release).
The Metascore for "Captain America: Civil War" is 75. This market resolves YES if "Civil War" (2024) has a Metascore of 76 ... | 2024-03-15T08:57:46 | 2024-04-26T06:45:01 | 2024-04-26T06:45:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3BwUoIHUaxg7aMUfSVnm | Will "Civil War" (2024) have >82% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? | "Civil War" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/civil_war_2024
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 26th (two weeks after release).
Details:
NOTE: "Civil War" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still runni... | 2024-03-15T08:53:35 | 2024-04-26T11:06:12 | 2024-04-26T11:06:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SUvgT2lRpTDZwzVygppl | Will Twitter ban pornography by the end of 2024? | It seems that there has been a recent push against NSFW content on a variety of platforms, likely starting from payment processors, in the wake of Internet censorship bills out of North Carolina and Texas, as well as pushes for the passage of KOSA. Major websites like Patreon and Gumroad have started cracking down heav... | 2024-03-15T08:42:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-06T11:07:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HH4IyL6PSDN5G7xyZX8D | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $75,000 in March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T07:27:33 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-03-31T21:12:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JXyHzt1v8wldfeffZNzY | Will bitcoin hit a new ATH before the end of the month ? | [image]last ATH on https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ | 2024-03-15T07:16:40 | 2024-03-31T19:59:00 | 2024-04-01T02:23:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bLPsSJcgXd5MSlTlC2OY | [Polymarket] TikTok banned in the US by June 30? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/tiktok-banned-in-the-us-by-june-30/tiktok-banned-in-the-us-by-june-30?tid=1710510356692). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will re... | 2024-03-15T06:48:47 | 2024-07-01T13:59:00 | 2024-07-23T14:09:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S34AT9UEcamzQZvJI7Mo | Will bitcoin surpass $111,111 before the end of 2024? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
..... | 2024-03-15T06:34:26 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:53:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GwvPT7SXdQuP3LaYl3ia | Will bitcoin surpass $111,111 before the end of 2024? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
.. | 2024-03-15T06:34:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:29:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WAgYtkeP7lFOlRqS1DBO | Will Reddit’s share price be at least 10% higher a week after the IPO? | Reddit is expected to have an Initial Public Offering (IPO) of shares on March 21st.
The IPO price per share is estimated to be between 31 and 34.
Will the share price on the open secondary market be at least 10% higher than the IPO price at closing on March 28th, a week after the IPO date?
https://www.cnbc.com/2024... | 2024-03-15T05:33:14 | 2024-03-27T20:59:00 | 2024-03-28T07:03:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FRohjVdxgvcgHGdc6HFD | Will J.J. McCarthy be selected in the top five picks of the 2024 NFL Draft? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-15T00:45:36 | 2024-04-25T21:53:53 | 2024-04-25T21:53:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JPWf1e5y7EjmFiyS3TVs | Will Nikki Haley endorse Biden? | If Nikki Haley endorses Joe Biden at any point before November 5th Eastern Time, this market will resolve to yes. Otherwise, this market will resolve to no. | 2024-03-15T00:29:45 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T05:06:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UqBQ8SkJZpHRgjSNFxUk | Will the next Chat GPT version 4.5 or 5 release by the end of April Fools? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T23:26:14 | 2024-04-01T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T21:07:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T3h4Udi7sUcOSSip5SD3 | Assuming the Tiktok bill passes the Senate, will Bytedance sell Tiktok to an American company? | If the recent bill to ban Tiktok passes the Senate and is enacted, will the parent company of Tiktok, Bytedance, sell Tiktok or a part of Tiktok to an American company?
If the bill does not pass the Senate this will resolve N/A | 2024-03-14T23:00:43 | 2025-02-01T01:59:00 | 2025-02-22T07:13:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TsfRjS4Bo92zqDLln8J9 | Conditional on Kristaps Porzingis missing at least one playoff game due to injury, will the Celtics win the NBA title? | The sportswriter Dan Devine recently wrote an article titled "Why Kristaps Porziņģis is the key to the Celtics' title hopes":
With the addition of Porzingis’ varied scoring game, a Celtics attack that was below league-average in fourth-quarter scoring last season has now jumped up to eighth. A group that finished 11th... | 2024-03-14T20:37:22 | 2024-06-17T21:15:45 | 2024-06-17T21:15:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WG4b7tbJByXjC1no12iC | Will Joe Biden win President again? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T20:13:17 | 2024-09-03T20:33:19 | 2024-09-03T20:33:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-c7KfCKC8LLs92EhybxKO | Will 2024 see a major, viral, malicious AI-generated disinformation case, either in the US or globally? | This explicitly EXCLUDES memes and lighthearted jokes that go viral, such as Will Smith eating spaghetti. This is about disinformation that’s intended to do harm. See the definitions for more:
2024: Refers to the year in question.
Major: Significant in scale or impact.
Malicious: Intended to harm or deceive.
AI-gen... | 2024-03-14T18:51:23 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-02-25T15:02:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AIf8YviqNDqRWzWny7mi | Will the 2024 TIME person of the year have an IMDB page? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T15:35:29 | 2024-12-11T14:33:15 | 2024-12-11T14:33:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RVoIehlN008OrKYoH0bS | Will the 2024 TIME person of the year be related to AI in some way? | by my judgement | 2024-03-14T15:28:06 | 2024-12-12T10:21:07 | 2024-12-12T10:21:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BidtOwNiKXdBG8c8G5PT | Will the price of Bitcoin reach $95,000 before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T13:29:26 | 2024-11-20T20:10:29 | 2024-11-20T20:10:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2gMTzgNtBTiIyXX8u2ss | Will Bayer Leverkusen win the 2023-2024 Europa League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T13:25:53 | 2024-05-22T14:20:59 | 2024-05-22T14:20:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-02art7cOf40tVYBd3LrH | Will Netanyahu's coalition collapse by the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if at any point in time in 2024, the coalition led by Netanyahu loses its majority in the Knesset. Not for passing a specific law, but the majority they need to keep things running.
This will almost certainly force early elections, but those will likely happen months later. In the meantime, Netanyahu woul... | 2024-03-14T12:04:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:14:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ouIDMrHvfag981DxI2iu | Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of Anzac Day? (April 25) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T08:51:36 | 2024-04-25T20:59:00 | 2024-04-25T21:14:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TSLkU6wLsDkbDdnU9jdR | Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-14T08:36:12 | 2024-10-11T13:32:54 | 2024-10-11T13:32:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EwAVZEhLe0rqmSYXqCVZ | ⏳ Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I before TikTok is banned or sold? | Cannabis:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mirrorbot/acx-2024-will-cannabis-be-removed-f)TikTok:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ZoharJackson/will-tiktok-be-banned-in-the-us-by)(https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/at-eoy-2024-will-bytedance-control) | 2024-03-14T08:25:25 | 2025-01-19T09:52:53 | 2025-01-19T09:52:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7WuQqtT8qkwsS71jkY3I | Will GPT-4's successor be announced today? | It's March 14, anniversary of GPT-4's release.
Doesn't matter what it's called (GPT-4.5, GPT-5, something else) as long as it's the new flagship model.
Resolves YES if it's officially announced on March 14 (anywhere in the world).
Resolves NO otherwise.
Gentle people, place your bets!
| 2024-03-14T03:49:04 | 2024-03-15T03:59:00 | 2024-03-15T04:07:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ngM2g9vmyXALypDDj6lF | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote but lose the EC vote, or lose the popular vote but win the EC vote? | If Donald Trump wins the popular vote but loses the EC vote, or loses the popular vote but wins the EC vote, this question will resolve to yes. If Trump wins both the EC vote and the popular vote, or loses both the popular vote and EC vote, this market will resolve to no.
IMPORTANT:
EC votes will be counted as if th... | 2024-03-14T01:14:52 | 2024-11-08T08:31:47 | 2024-11-08T08:31:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U7idMo98OQwCY3AqPJg3 | Will RFK Jr. choose Aaron Rodgers as his running mate for POTUS? | RFK Jr has said he will announce his Vice president pick on March 26th, it is rumored that Aaron Rogers, the current starting quarterback for the New York Jets, is on the short list.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/rfk-jr-considering-aaron-rodgers-jesse-ventura-possible-running-mates-rcna143090 | 2024-03-13T22:57:17 | 2024-03-26T23:59:00 | 2024-03-27T01:49:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-idN76m5nmPs9N8oyPYdK | Will the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024 be related to the Palestine conflict? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T22:49:52 | 2024-10-11T16:41:27 | 2024-10-11T16:41:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2eAIeOziI2dsJBH2Ehsc | Will any more Israeli hostages held by Hamas return alive in 2024? (Starting in March 2024) | As of this question being made in early March 2024, at least two hostages have gotten back alive in 2024 (Fernando Simon Marman and Louis Har) | 2024-03-13T20:02:59 | 2024-06-09T10:02:27 | 2024-06-09T10:02:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cRaT9LVLkXHu3X3I2PyY | Will Aaron Rodgers be RFK Jrs VP | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T18:18:41 | 2024-03-26T14:39:28 | 2024-03-26T14:39:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-92s4lwxKAavKhemxlV97 | Will Bitcoin hit $76K in March 2024? | Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve | 2024-03-13T18:08:22 | 2024-03-30T23:59:00 | 2024-03-31T21:19:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-08wROc3lxFdt48cySoEU | Will OpenAI announce something product-related tomorrow (3/14)? | OpenAI released GPT-4 on 3/14/23. Will they announce anything tomorrow?
Very lenient on what it could be. Updated GPT-4, Jukebox V2, release date for GPT-5, whatever. As long as it's directly related to a product and not, eg, something about a lawsuit, the board, partnerships with news organizations.
I won't bet in ... | 2024-03-13T17:11:07 | 2024-03-14T23:59:00 | 2024-03-15T00:05:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8weVYven1Csetz4Gu08 | ⚽ Will West Ham beat Aston Villa during regular time on Sun, Mar 17, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ West Ham vs Aston Villa
📅 Date: Sunday, March 17, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- West Ham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stop... | 2024-03-13T17:01:41 | 2024-03-17T10:00:00 | 2024-03-17T10:01:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ezLwP0wLInbno2W49FvR | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $100,000 before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T15:53:18 | 2024-12-05T15:39:05 | 2024-12-05T15:39:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8LuOVSom2pi6DasnIvKH | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $90,000 before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T15:53:01 | 2024-11-14T18:25:58 | 2024-11-14T18:25:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zGc3CB4jV2ykzEUgcmqE | Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before June 2024? | This market resolves Yes if OpenAI broadly releases the successor to GPT-4 before June 2024.
Any model which is clearly the next major, canonical form of GPT will count for this market regardless of what it is called. I am assuming this will be called GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, but it still counts if it has another name. A la... | 2024-03-13T15:47:15 | 2024-05-13T11:50:45 | 2024-05-14T08:55:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cBRsT3jXysbOF6x5kLSq | Will NVIDIA 50 series release before 2025 | Will NVIDIA release their 50 series chipset before 1st of January 2025. It must be possible to buy. | 2024-03-13T15:08:17 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-23T21:42:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iPDzWVb5skNZJUxTbAyF | Will Congress and Senate Pass a TikTok Ban Bill by April 30, 2024? | See here for info on why/how gpt headline markets :
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/GPT4_Headline_Markets
https://predictionmarkets.miraheze.org/wiki/Headline_Template
--
Introduction:
On March 13, 2024, the House passed a bill proposing a nationwide ban on TikTok if its China-based owner does not dives... | 2024-03-13T14:27:17 | 2024-04-23T22:16:30 | 2024-04-23T22:16:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T2qXQ4VIJwRiZJIb0rIH | Will Joe Biden attend the 2024 Paris Olympics? | Criteria should be pretty self-explanatory. I would say, he doesn't need to be physically in the stands watching a particular sporting event. If he is in Paris during the Olympic Games (for instance, meeting with Macron) that would be sufficient to resolve this YES. Watching the games on TV from the US would not be ... | 2024-03-13T13:57:15 | 2024-08-11T21:59:00 | 2024-08-12T09:29:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hKarEmhv53R104O4EpEJ | Will google ($goog) be over or at 150 by the end of June? | 00:00 30.06.2024 | 2024-03-13T11:51:59 | 2024-06-30T12:41:36 | 2024-06-30T12:41:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rp2PHbHwLRvxMsiw1QCs | Will the price of Solana (sol-usd) be over or at 200 at the end of April? | 00:00 on the 30.04.2024 | 2024-03-13T11:45:22 | 2024-04-30T14:59:00 | 2024-04-30T20:01:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cOuzi8aj7h3cBFV07Nbs | Will the TikTok ban pass the Senate by the end of March? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T09:28:00 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T08:33:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k140nIGQ66PafKvySKas | Will the EU AI Act enter into force before the end of May 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-13T07:47:11 | 2024-05-26T19:53:26 | 2024-05-26T19:53:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O50e6qWQ7hzyeTq5JKSn | Will Biden drop out of the presidential race before the DNC? | Resolves YES if Biden or his campaign officially announces he is withdrawing or suspending his campaign for 2024 US President, by the end of the last day of the Democratic National Convention (scheduled for August 22). Any circumstances that force his withdrawal (e.g. death) count as YES as well. Otherwise resolves NO. | 2024-03-13T06:36:30 | 2024-07-21T12:59:06 | 2024-07-21T12:59:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QmkKwkTBxl5h5xqmPWim | Will Cognition Labs' Devin be used by a big company by the end of 2024? | Resolves to yes if by the end of 2024, a publicly-listed company with a market cap of over US$5 billion is publicly confirmed to be using Devin to write code, and they haven't stated that the deployment is only experimental. | 2024-03-13T05:04:28 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-07T15:53:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YTrwWqHwQkXmVpih3Yim | [Polymarket] Israel ground offensive in Rafah by March 31? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/israel-ground-offensive-in-rafah-by-march-31?tid=1710318827744). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if by Marc... | 2024-03-13T01:36:09 | 2024-04-01T13:59:00 | 2024-04-04T00:49:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-isxZ3HV7hOA0H6rYNBVi | Will Reddit be valued more than Pinterest at the end of 2024? | Reddit is going public in March 2024.
The last social media company to go public was Pinterest. At the time of writing, Pinterest is valued $23.68B.
This question will resolve yes, if at the end of 2024, Reddit is valued more than Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) | 2024-03-13T00:57:50 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2025-01-04T06:02:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-z25JhWoUtb0dDyaYj3Po | [short fuse] Will Rand Paul filibuster the Tiktok bill? | Resolves based on Rand Paul filibustering the Tiktok bill currently making its way through the House. He needs to actually filibuster or object to unanimous consent (as he did in 2023 to Hawley's bill), not just threaten to.
If the bill never makes it to the Senate, resolves No. | 2024-03-12T23:55:16 | 2024-04-24T04:23:14 | 2024-04-24T04:23:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eVqAT31bFWfEFZBHiryA | Will the Boston Celtics win the 2023-2024 NBA championship? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T22:57:09 | 2024-06-17T20:05:15 | 2024-06-17T20:05:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bNfgvwXP7LyVNlx5Rfk9 | Will Lauren Boebert resign from her current position in Congress? | Will she resign from her current position by the November election? | 2024-03-12T20:49:41 | 2024-11-05T05:01:20 | 2024-11-05T05:01:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JXVlP2jy9p68bP0QaGSa | If Trump wins, will he "free" January 6th prisoners in his first month? | Trump has promised to "free" / pardon January 6th prisoners as one of the first acts of his possible presidency: https://www.axios.com/2024/03/12/trump-free-jan-6-rioters-election-vow.
If Trump wins the 2024 election and is sworn in, and in his first month in power, issues a pardon or clemency that results in any Janu... | 2024-03-12T19:17:23 | 2025-02-03T09:13:24 | 2025-02-03T09:13:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3axSJr0KAOwCbYfkLaf9 | ⚽ Will Fulham beat Tottenham during regular time on Sat, Mar 16, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Fulham vs Tottenham
📅 Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 17:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Fulham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage... | 2024-03-12T17:02:34 | 2024-03-16T13:30:00 | 2024-03-16T14:01:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vb5AnzBkOPp9Wyi9G9rv | ⚽ Will Burnley beat Brentford during regular time on Sat, Mar 16, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧 | ⚽ Burnley vs Brentford
📅 Date: Saturday, March 16, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Burnley has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppa... | 2024-03-12T17:02:23 | 2024-03-16T11:00:00 | 2024-03-16T11:01:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PV6JxhOnt0bxhjSZPRXj | Will the price of Bitcoin hit $80,000 before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T16:46:37 | 2024-11-11T12:20:52 | 2024-11-11T12:20:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fz4NVLDCrwWAGH9ZdrDd | Will OpenAI release a new GPT model on Pi Day 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T16:40:24 | 2024-03-15T00:00:00 | 2024-03-15T03:34:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FjAYlRlEmcz4ACUfSAOn | Will Real Madrid win the 2023-2024 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T16:07:28 | 2024-06-01T20:59:00 | 2024-06-01T22:22:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OxDfRt4NuQPs1Y3NEJqy | Will Manchester City win the 2024-2025 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T16:06:49 | 2025-03-08T13:37:06 | 2025-03-08T13:37:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Cq2a4jG68YNm4URdjn9 | Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 Champions League? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T16:03:57 | 2024-04-20T05:52:54 | 2024-04-20T05:52:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1Z5JTWsWOPCGmpVXwpaJ | Will Mira Murati work at OpenAI at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T13:20:25 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:55:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-crKwGrN6g4SBLKHPoeXg | Will MONKEY MAN have >85% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes? (upcoming Dev Patel action thriller 🐒) | "Monkey Man" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/monkey_man
I will resolve based on the Tomatometer score (i.e. critics, not audiences) on April 19th (two weeks after release).
Details:
NOTE: "Monkey Man" just premiered at SXSW, and some reviews have already been published—I'm still running... | 2024-03-12T13:00:50 | 2024-04-19T15:49:06 | 2024-04-19T15:49:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hp7O7Hcpf3atqdJuMWIx | Will NVIDIA stock close lower at March end, than it did at March start? | If the close on March 31 or whatever the last day for trading is in march is less than the closing price on 1st march - this is yes. | 2024-03-12T12:41:46 | 2024-04-04T19:33:54 | 2024-04-04T19:33:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-trG1B15sl4EkpJpxZ2fP | Will the Rabbit R1 Suck? | Once the R1 is in the hands of consumers (5K+ units delivered), and the hype has died down (~1 month later), will it suck? (End date may be adjusted accordingly, if there are shipping delays)
Suckiness is of course entirely subjective, so this market will be resolved via a future manifold poll, titled simply "Does the... | 2024-03-12T11:54:58 | 2024-05-23T16:59:00 | 2024-05-24T11:13:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dgAwNqeOgcdOxIz93xYm | Will Prince William and Kate Middleton divorce before Halloween 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-12T11:29:22 | 2024-10-31T19:47:08 | 2024-10-31T19:47:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hTFpLdfbhEtRT0ckyU39 | Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" (2024) have a Metacritic score >50? | "Ghostbusers: Frozen Empire" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/ghostbusters-frozen-empire/
I will resolve based on the Metascore on April 5th (two weeks after release).
For reference, the current Metascore for "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" is 45, while Ghostbusters (2016) earned a score of 60.
Ot... | 2024-03-12T07:02:22 | 2024-04-05T12:31:02 | 2024-04-05T12:31:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MyMgykvAtZOXGNbFhFbR | Will someone be slapped at the 2025 Oscars? | Note this is 2025
Must happen on-stage during main official
live broadcast.
Real or fake/joke slaps will count. | 2024-03-12T03:28:30 | 2025-03-06T08:49:34 | 2025-03-06T08:49:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hFrtsjBsexDakJVEIvxr | Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellite(s) to orbit in Starship–SuperHeavy's fourth flight? | Resolves on whether the fourth flight of the Starship–Superheavy vehicle is intended to deliver one or more Starlink satellites to orbit. Success is not required, only that at the time the launch takes place, deploying a payload of one or more Starlinks to orbit is part of the flight plan.
The Starlink satellites(s) c... | 2024-03-12T02:09:44 | 2024-06-06T15:03:59 | 2024-06-06T15:03:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UemQLPfY3Qewv0YykI8Y | Will Andrew Tate appear in court in the UK in 2024? | The UK have issued a European arrest warrant for Andrew Tate and his brother and they have been detained by Romanian authorities:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68542187
The arrest warrant was issued by Westminster Magistrates Court in London.
Will this result in Tate appearing in court in the UK?
Resolution criter... | 2024-03-12T02:06:44 | 2025-01-04T03:35:51 | 2025-01-04T03:35:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-unBUGj0dh4qVNTmRsOnw | Will Starship–SuperHeavy's fourth flight have a planned trajectory that is fully orbital? | Resolves on statements from SpaceX establishing whether the planned trajectory of the fourth flight of the Starshsip–SuperHeavy vehicle is unambiguously orbital - that is, a trajectory in which the vehicle would, without further engine burns, complete at least one full orbit around the Earth.
Since plans can change, t... | 2024-03-12T01:59:16 | 2024-05-24T18:34:25 | 2024-05-24T18:34:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
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