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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-mfh0BhCo0MQI7IaQfRTn
|
Will Sam Altman's next Tweet be an announcement of GPT-5?
|
https://twitter.com/sama
It does count even if it's not called GPT-5.
But GPT-4.5 doesn't count - it has to be a new generation.
|
2024-03-12T01:51:06
|
2024-03-17T10:28:10
|
2024-03-17T10:28:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5x99YSazGhzZ0ICWgQyW
|
Will Ilya Sutskever return to Twitter before March ends?
|
Return means visible activity, like reposting, posting, liking, replying, changing bio, etc.
|
2024-03-12T01:31:39
|
2024-04-01T14:04:53
|
2024-04-01T14:04:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VQCkhkb4Zb4VvoUdCSlf
|
Will Bitcoin cross 75000$ mark as predicted from Bloomberg and top Firms.
|
Bitcoin Price Outlook 2024, Experts Predict BTC To Reach $75000 This Year, Also Bullish On MGLS
Bitcoin Price Outlook 2024, Experts Predict BTC To Reach $75000 This Year, Also Bullish On MGLS ... As we approach 2024 experts.
Kraken Research Says
The cryptocurrency has pulled back from its all-time high above $69,000 on February 21, but it still finished the month 37% higher.
|
2024-03-11T23:25:28
|
2024-04-18T11:29:00
|
2024-04-19T03:39:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WseeModbai3oRGK208r1
|
Will Bitcoin hit $78K in March 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-11T22:08:04
|
2024-03-30T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T00:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NjaAWgCW3HDAKptH4Qk
|
Will Russell Wilson beat the Denver Broncos during the 2024 NFL season?
|
Resolves YES if Russell Wilson starts against the Denver Broncos during the 2024 regular or post-season and his team wins the game.
Resolves NO after the Broncos last game if this has not happened.
|
2024-03-11T18:54:39
|
2025-01-13T18:48:56
|
2025-01-13T18:48:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4cnN0iBesPQ2OL9sKYkl
|
Did the Boeing whistleblower die of foul play? (media consensus)
|
John Barnett former Boeing employee and current whistle blower was found dead in his truck on 03/11/2024. He was 62 at time of death, in Charleston to participate in legal proceedings linked to his whistleblowing case.
This resolves YES if consensus among mainstream media in 3 months is that he died of foul play. Resolves NO consensus is that he died from suicide, natural causes, or an accident.
If at market close this is unresolved I'll extend the market.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68534703
|
2024-03-11T17:05:26
|
2024-06-11T20:59:00
|
2024-06-12T05:19:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RsNHkmTT61XqGbyatH2x
|
Will Bitcoin fall to $60K before reaching $85K?
|
I will use https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ as my source.
|
2024-03-11T15:45:39
|
2024-04-17T12:24:12
|
2024-04-17T12:24:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KDFbfezroaU5mUMUibcz
|
Will police or courts determine that foul play was involved in the death of Boeing whistleblower John Barnett?
|
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68534703
John Barnett is presumed to have died from a self-inflicted gunshot wound on March 9 before he was due for further questioning in court.
If police or a court with jurisdiction determine that foul play was involved in his death before the end of 2025, this question resolves YES. Otherwise it resolves NO.
|
2024-03-11T15:32:58
|
2024-06-06T01:04:20
|
2024-06-06T01:04:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-shEFh5SQG5NzZHEQP1jE
|
Will Bitcoin be above 72k at 23:59 PM ET march 11
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-11T15:17:01
|
2024-03-13T13:59:00
|
2024-03-14T20:13:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9xolNZmhWzJ4Apun4NlV
|
Will Rivian Automotive Inc deliver more than 100k electric vehicles in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-11T15:05:20
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-05T14:07:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ywU9uu5Nph2YEZJ48lIl
|
Will Donald Trump say something negative about Jimmy Carter within 1 week of his death?
|
If he starts negative and then goes positive, it counts as a Yes, such as "some people said he was a one-term failure, but I always thought he was a fine upstanding man". If he says something uncharacteristically neutral, that will remain a No.
|
2024-03-11T13:15:29
|
2025-01-05T20:59:00
|
2025-01-05T21:09:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RfuSsnjCanhj94BZMHWL
|
(Quick resolving trade) will Bitcoin hit 73,000 by 8pm tomorrow
|
The Bitcoin market is almost at 73k
|
2024-03-11T12:12:37
|
2024-03-12T17:40:04
|
2024-03-12T17:40:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7hfkMUScOwukuWwfYy3I
|
If Trump is elected, will there be an executive order or legislation focused on AI before the 2026 midterms?
|
The main example would be Biden's AI executive order in 2023.
Democrats have generally seemed more concerned with regulating AI. At the same time, AI wasn't nearly as big of an issue while Trump was president.
The legislation would have to become law to count, not just introduced.
Harris market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-uve99bjbbo)Update 2025-22-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Clarifications:
A repeal of Biden's AI executive order via a second executive order will be counted as fulfilling the market's condition.
|
2024-03-11T11:59:05
|
2025-01-22T04:58:24
|
2025-01-22T04:58:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lv4EIrVzQuPyzDDhb8Zk
|
Will Tesla's market capitalization surpass $1 trillion by the end of 2024?
|
In this article A top analyst says Tesla will have a $1 trillion market cap next year : "Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives on Thursday boosted his Tesla (TSLA) price target to $350 from $310, arguing in a note that the electric-vehicle producer is on track to reach a $1 trillion market cap in 2024."
This resolve Yes if surpass a trillion dolar market cap before the end of the year.
current market cap of $Tesla:
[image]
|
2024-03-11T11:56:24
|
2024-11-11T07:57:51
|
2024-11-11T07:57:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PViNNJNpub4S2NzqMPdd
|
Will Joe Biden publicly call for Netanyahu's Resignation before the US election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-11T09:20:53
|
2024-11-03T20:59:00
|
2024-11-08T21:05:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u0U1vvCI6eW0nQLYjylK
|
Will Biden and Trump have a public debate in 2024 before the election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-11T08:39:37
|
2024-06-27T18:46:24
|
2024-06-27T18:46:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rALUJE3xQLyBEGoW1j9Q
|
Will the full report of the investigation of Sam Altman be released to the public in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if I am able to access the full investigative report from WilmerHale by the end of the year, and can share quotes from it with the public as desired, or it is otherwise publicly available.
Resolves NO if this does not happen.
If the report is released with some sections or statements redacted, I will judge whether the redactions were reasonable steps to do things like protect corporate assets or ensure safety and cybersecurity, versus the impact they have on the ability to understand the key issues in the report.
(Redaction of things like email addresses and other private identifying information would definitely still qualify a release for YES.)
|
2024-03-11T07:31:28
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:37:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g84p1g846mCaNcO0Hlmt
|
Will Chat GPT 4.5 or 5 release before Reddit IPOs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-11T07:27:40
|
2024-03-21T14:39:55
|
2024-03-21T14:39:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hhr0DqItGNMfXn8lrfE
|
Bitcoin: Will all-time high happen at the halving day?
|
This will resolve YES, if on the day of halving (when block 840000 is mined, UT timezone) the Bitcoin's price will reach its highest level ever.
by Coingecko
|
2024-03-11T06:48:48
|
2024-04-21T12:28:18
|
2024-04-21T12:28:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6EoPQJLo8Uu4F3RT0eLH
|
At the end of September will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
|
2024-03-11T06:45:32
|
2024-09-30T20:59:00
|
2024-09-30T21:33:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3dG47NjIbfgz7XjkqJiD
|
Will GPT-4's successor be released this week?
|
Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it.
|
2024-03-11T04:56:24
|
2024-03-18T02:41:51
|
2024-03-18T02:41:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a9uKbEjHXBb6xx4nxWhs
|
Will any more MPs defect to Reform UK by the end of April?
|
Following three weeks of speculation, Lee Anderson has today defected to Reform UK, giving them their first MP - @/SimonGrayson/will-lee-anderson-join-reform-uk
At their joint press conference this morning, Richard Tice (Reform's party leader) has said that he expects more Tory MPs to defect before the next election.
With local elections coming up on 2nd May, will ay MPs from the Conservative Party or any other MPs defect to Reform by the end of April?
If any MP defects so that they are sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.
If any MP resigns their seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES
If a sitting MP announces that they will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES
If none of the above have happened by the end of the day on 30th April, the market will resolve to NO
|
2024-03-11T04:04:03
|
2024-05-01T09:03:37
|
2024-05-01T09:03:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wV3bFgYdBc97XI58ZKnS
|
Will any more MPs defect to Reform UK before the next general election?
|
Following three weeks of speculation, Lee Anderson has today defected to Reform UK, giving them their first MP - @/SimonGrayson/will-lee-anderson-join-reform-uk
At their joint press conference this morning, Richard Tice (Reform's party leader) has said that he expects more Tory MPs to defect before the next election.
Will MPs from the Conservative Party or any other MPs defect to Reform before Parliament is dissolved for a general election?
If any MP defects so that they are sitting as a Reform UK MP, this market will resolve to YES.
If any MP resigns their seat or is removed in some other way and registers as the Reform UK candidate for a by-election, this market will resolve to YES
If a sitting MP announces that they will be standing in the next General Election as a Reform UK candidate, this market resolves to YES
If Parliament is dissolved before any of the above happen, the market will resolve to NO
|
2024-03-11T04:02:27
|
2024-05-30T05:48:55
|
2024-05-30T05:48:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NChzrVpx8tXuWhiPuUwZ
|
Will xAI open source Grok on or before March 17, 2024?
|
“Open source” means releasing the weights, but not necessarily training data or accompanying code.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1767108624038449405
|
2024-03-11T03:02:08
|
2024-03-17T12:27:26
|
2024-03-17T12:27:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2d2JIgLzerAuNfF1gI2
|
Will Bitcoin hit $74K in March 2024?
|
Resolves to: Blockchain
Mods may resolve
|
2024-03-11T01:29:40
|
2024-03-30T23:59:00
|
2024-03-31T21:20:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E6ICxfXBBFkY7pHuGSli
|
At the end of June will Joe Biden's favorability be higher than Trump's on FiveThirtyEight?
|
Biden: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/
Trump: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/
@/strutheo/will-biden-have-higher-favorability
@/strutheo/at-the-end-of-september-will-joe-bi
|
2024-03-10T23:51:20
|
2024-06-30T18:59:50
|
2024-06-30T18:59:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5CZiYsBhA9BbdDWjKOTq
|
Will RFK Jr. be polling above 10% on October 1st, 2024?
|
In the RCP average. He's currently at 12.7%
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein
I may not use this exact link in the events that candidates change, but I will use whichever link includes the D, the R, the Green, the Libertarian, and RFK.
|
2024-03-10T23:50:14
|
2024-10-02T20:59:00
|
2024-10-06T08:17:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5rrysfmfnduAtYnAm75J
|
Will RFK Jr. participate in a presidential debate in 2024?
|
only if he debates one of the major party candidates
|
2024-03-10T23:41:03
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T16:40:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rs0YEaZUXTvmKd01xjow
|
Will the “I’m Just Ken” YouTube video get 5 million views in the first week?
|
We’re talking about this video:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/VhWqpvGq6b4?si=7cBKUzKZiSdbtz3o)Will it get 5 million views in the first week?
|
2024-03-10T20:22:08
|
2024-03-17T23:59:00
|
2024-03-18T04:58:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DiHPfmpnovo0YN9ins6f
|
Will the market cap of NVDA surpass MSFT before September 2024?
|
As of time of writing, market cap of MSFT is $3.018T and NVDA is $2.188T.
This question will resolve YES if at the end of a trading day, the market cap of MSFT is greater than MSFT.
Intraday does not count.
Please let me know in comments if you need any clarifications.
|
2024-03-10T20:14:44
|
2024-06-18T16:09:17
|
2024-06-18T16:09:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gDQ7Nis2vf3yYAaj0iLn
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of April 3rd?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-10T18:07:14
|
2024-04-03T17:24:41
|
2024-04-03T17:24:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8fbb9w6zArEqHy6mljig
|
Will undoctored evidence of a recovered Kate Middleton be available before July 1, 2024?
|
Today the Palace released a photo of Kate Middleton which was killed shortly after by AP and Reuters because of evidence that it was doctored.
Resolves YES if undoctored, contemporary, evidence of Kate Middleton sitting and talking, or standing, or walking unassisted, and looking recovered (smiling, normal skin color, taking normal strides) is available before July 1, 2024. This could be an account from a very trustworthy individual (ie non-Palace affiliated journalist), a convincing enough photo or video. My threshold will be roughly "beyond a reasonable doubt.” I will not count evidence from the Sun or Daily Mail
Because resolution is subjective I'm not going to bet.
|
2024-03-10T16:12:02
|
2024-03-22T11:09:09
|
2024-03-22T22:50:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-02q2lRPlDWqeX4t5YrAJ
|
Will Manchester United beat Liverpool on April 7th?
|
Resolves YES if Manchester United beats Liverpool in the Premier League match of April 7th 2024. Resolves NO otherwise (including if there is a draw).
|
2024-03-10T11:56:36
|
2024-04-07T13:47:08
|
2024-04-07T13:47:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tmXe9jW6cE4x7cTafL2T
|
Will Arsenal beat Manchester City on March 31st?
|
Resolves YES if Arsenal beats Manchester City in the Premier League match of March 31st 2024. Resolves NO otherwise (including if there is a draw).
|
2024-03-10T11:47:29
|
2024-03-31T14:49:57
|
2024-03-31T14:49:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9u5pG6SfIdEp21ylJCEI
|
Will at least one American soldier die because of the temporary port activity in Gaza , until the end of June?
|
The United States government has decided to establish a temporary port in the north Gaza strip, for aid distribution.
that will require some army presence in the Gaza Strip and can cause friction between soldiers and local citizens.
This question will resolve YES if an American soldier dies in an incident related to the establishment and the operation of the pier.
|
2024-03-10T09:17:29
|
2024-07-01T13:59:00
|
2024-07-03T09:31:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XOlGM1i30mIooThIOdso
|
Will Daniel Ricciardo remain an RB driver for the entire 2024 Formula 1 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-10T08:31:36
|
2024-09-26T12:47:24
|
2024-09-26T12:47:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zkfN8oYDqoxgQQpKL0Al
|
🏀 Will #5 Wisconsin beat #12 James Madison in the South region? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-10T08:26:33
|
2024-03-22T21:38:49
|
2024-03-22T21:38:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aFNN38BU1RVLQbeG8MxR
|
🏀 Will #4 Kansas beat #13 Samford in the Midwest region? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-10T07:47:42
|
2024-03-21T21:59:25
|
2024-03-21T21:59:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OzrJWona9khVePf7ocsq
|
🏀 Will #5 Gonzaga beat #12 McNeese in the Midwest region? (Men's March Madness 2024)
|
https://www.ncaa.com/march-madness-live/bracket
See markets for all games on the March Madness 2024🏀 dashboard.
For speedy resolution, mods may resolve market on my behalf.
|
2024-03-10T07:47:27
|
2024-03-21T19:39:03
|
2024-03-21T19:39:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-15g3WcUDLSovre9aDMco
|
Will Bibi Netanyahu address the 118th Congress?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-bibi-netanyahu-be-invited-to-a)
|
2024-03-10T05:32:03
|
2024-07-24T12:44:22
|
2024-07-24T12:44:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EuA25luSyoUJC05D2sja
|
Will Donald Trump travel outside the US during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-10T05:30:17
|
2024-12-03T13:16:59
|
2024-12-03T13:16:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lYNuu9NEQmq4HvOTn2iu
|
Will Donald Trump visit Israel by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-10T05:24:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:33:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CTSHF0Ie0usTaM3ZJdfP
|
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-10T05:21:39
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fvW85lshcVJhziWAUEeT
|
Will the market cap of NVDA surpass AAPL before September 2024?
|
As of time of writing, market cap of AAPL is $2.636T and NVDA is $2.188T.
This question will resolve YES if at the end of a trading day, the market cap of NVDA is greater than AAPL.
Intraday does not count.
Please let me know in comments if you need any clarifications.
|
2024-03-10T04:14:06
|
2024-06-05T16:01:25
|
2024-06-05T16:01:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PiBoGE1KhIXdo5kT7Ovq
|
Will there be more than 7 companies with market cap of > $1T by the end of 2024?
|
Reference would be from https://companiesmarketcap.com/
There are currently 7 companies with market cap more than $1T according to companiesmarketcap.com:
Microsoft
Apple
NVIDIA
Saudi Aramco
Amazon
Alphabet
Meta
This question will resolve YES if at the end of 2024, the list contains 8 or more companies with market cap of more than or equals to $1T.
|
2024-03-10T03:21:41
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-03T17:05:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SRZzgnrVLOb3OZn48uZj
|
Will there be a violent incident around the new Gaza port in 2024?
|
Biden has been saying the US will build a port in Gaza. However, distribution on land will be an issue, with many hungry people looking for food. Will there be a large scale violent incident around the Gaza port in 2024?
Could be a stampede, could be soldiers or Gazans opening fire on one another. Size of the incident more than 5 casualties.
The 'Al-Rashid humanitarian aid incident' would more than count, the one that happened 29th of Feb.
The incident has to be around the new port in Gaza, it can't be through distributing the food somewhere far away in Gaza. It can be both an incident from people just trying to get food and some mass hysteria, or because of a Hamas or other organisation attacking around the port.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve NO since there were no reported violent incidents before the port stopped being used.
|
2024-03-10T00:12:41
|
2024-12-06T04:18:54
|
2024-12-06T04:18:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mZnnUBBfSLxkv7oQwVTC
|
Will Bitcoin outperform Altcoins in 2024?
|
BTC returns will use the S&P Bitcoin Index (SPBTC) 2024 Return
Altcoins will be represented by S&P Cryptocurrency Broad Digital Market Ex-MegaCap Index (SPCBXM) 2024 Returb
Marketcap weighted index of the whole crypto currency space ex-Bitcoin and Ethereum
|
2024-03-09T21:02:26
|
2024-12-31T21:25:23
|
2024-12-31T21:25:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y9tQ5nOahDIlW3WW9bHr
|
If the TikTok "ban" bill passes, will its enforcement be blocked by courts?
|
background: https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-bytedance-bill-divest-5b5a685e8f1e19d22182d62526bf19b8
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bytedance-tiktok-divestment-bill-would-give-government-stronger-legal-position-2024-03-08/
possible challenges:
1. It's effectively a bill of attainder effecting arbitrary punishment on one particular company. Bills of attainder are prohibited.
2. Social media is protected by the first amendment -- the government can't just order a newspaper to shut down, or order it to sell to new owners, and a social media app is no different. Foreigners have the right to publish stuff in the US. Even if that incidentally involves collecting info about their customers that the foreign government might someday require them to hand over.
Resolves N/A if the bill doesn't pass. Resolves NO if the bill is enforced. Resolves YES if the enforcement is blocked by courts. Remains open while the appeals process is pending.
outside view: 1 out of 1 previous attempt to do this (trump's) was blocked by courts.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
A temporary injunction/stay that is still in place when the law is repealed counts for a YES resolution
A temporary injunction that is later removed or successfully appealed is not sufficient for a YES resolution
If Congress repeals/modifies the law while an injunction is still in place, mooting the lawsuit, that counts for a YES resolution
|
2024-03-09T19:49:16
|
2025-01-18T13:40:05
|
2025-01-18T13:40:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-96K95a4W9D8ovA4wZTHb
|
Will Bitcoin hit $80K in March 2024?
|
https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.
|
2024-03-09T18:43:37
|
2024-03-31T21:36:00
|
2024-04-01T00:03:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6bIzZco5lH36iBZ0nAR9
|
Will Bitcoin hit $85K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-09T18:37:07
|
2024-11-11T11:01:17
|
2024-11-11T11:01:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-id5IEIvUInvsaQwaFLrn
|
Will Congress pass legislation funding the federal government beyond the September 30th shutdown deadline?
|
President Biden has signed legislation funding some government agencies, whose funding now expires on September 30th.
The package funds military construction, water development and the departments of Veterans Affairs, Agriculture, Commerce, Justice, Energy, Interior, Transportation, and Housing and Urban Development.
If the House and Senate pass legislation which would keep the federal government funded before that September 30th deadline this market resolves Yes. If they do not, this market resolves No. Biden signing the legislation before the deadline is not required for this market.
For more markets about any potential shutdown, see the Dashboard.
|
2024-03-09T16:38:02
|
2024-09-26T15:06:25
|
2024-09-26T15:06:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sDfg4qdBVzqesIBcB95S
|
Will Congress pass legislation funding the federal government beyond the March 22nd deadline? (Midnight ET)
|
President Biden has signed legislation funding some government agencies through September 30th, but a shutdown is not yet averted.
Senators will now work to pass the remaining six appropriations bills funding the Departments of Defense, Labor, Health and Human Services, Homeland Security and other priorities before the March 22 deadline.
If the House and Senate pass funding legislation for these agencies before the deadline, this market resolves Yes. If they do not, this market resolves No. Biden signing the legislation before the deadline is not required for this market.
For more markets about the potential shutdown, see the Dashboard.
|
2024-03-09T16:35:41
|
2024-03-22T21:01:07
|
2024-03-22T21:01:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XYxp9NmqYWeE8dEqMo00
|
⚽ Will Bournemouth beat Luton during regular time on Wed, Mar 13, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Bournemouth vs Luton
📅 Date: Wednesday, March 13, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Bournemouth has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Luton has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-09T16:01:43
|
2024-03-13T15:30:00
|
2024-03-13T16:01:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FUcv63HSVgvR0aET45Oy
|
Will Russia implement a major nationwide forced military mobilization for the Ukraine war before EOY 2024?
|
To Resolve as YES:
Russia officially orders a binding draft/conscription requiring at least 300,000 additional able-bodied citizens between 18-60 to report for military service
The stated purpose must be to significantly increase forces for the Ukraine war
A covert/undeclared mobilization of this scale under the guise of the current "partial mobilization" would count
To Resolve as NO:
Russia does not order a new draft/conscription meeting the above criteria by December 31, 2024
Continuation of current policies and personnel levels
The determination will be based on official Russian government statements, legislation, and actions, as well as reporting from credible international media.
|
2024-03-09T15:33:34
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:31:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kkgZNqyyEKxl5lnK8Jqe
|
Will Trump’s Vice Presidential pick be one of Marco Rubio, J.D. Vance, or Katie Britt?
|
[tweet]In March 2024, it was reported that Donald Trump has narrowed his choices for Vice President to Katie Britt, J.D. Vance, and Marco Rubio. Will one of the three be chosen as Vice President?
|
2024-03-09T13:56:28
|
2024-07-15T18:41:58
|
2024-07-15T18:41:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LqwniTzJKXYFoTJqdfV9
|
If Trump is elected President, will the S&P 500 go up over election week?
|
If Donald Trump is not elected president, this market resolves N/A. The market resolves YES if the S&P 500 opens at a higher value on Friday November 8, 2024 than it did on Monday November 4. If it does not go up, this will resolve NO.
|
2024-03-09T13:26:13
|
2024-11-08T14:59:00
|
2024-11-10T02:46:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U3ErcZW9KU3kA57Q50ht
|
Will the Houthis successfully attack a U.S. or allied warship in 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES if it is credibly reported by a major news agency, or the U.S. or an allied government, that the Houthis successfully attacked a U.S. or allied warship before 2025. If not, this market will resolve NO.
A successful attack means damage was caused to the ship, even minor, directly because of a Houthi attack. An ally is defined as any member of Operation Prosperity Guardian. A warship is defined as a countries combat vessel that has the primary purpose of naval warfare. If a ship is damaged because it's own weapon misfired while trying to intercept a Houthi missile, it wouldn't count, because it's not directly from the attack. If a Houthi missile explodes near a ship and causes only superficial damage, it counts because that is damage.
|
2024-03-09T12:45:41
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:47:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZAN5P2AkQjm6kjdgGZ5x
|
Will Donald Trump's VP pick be a sitting Senator?
|
Will Donald Trump choose a sitting senator as of the date of his selection as his VP nominee for 2024?
|
2024-03-09T12:33:49
|
2024-07-18T10:09:00
|
2024-07-18T10:09:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U5XZ41kK3Jk4f5SVh7ve
|
Will we know who won the Presidential Election 24 hours after?
|
i.e. 24 hours after first poll closings.
This will resolve based generally on prediction markets, and whether they are >95% for one candidate. In the event of slightly different prices, I will make a judgement call. I will not bet in this market.
|
2024-03-09T12:03:04
|
2024-11-06T15:27:13
|
2024-11-06T15:27:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kFcfuvuNuxpOfGT8io43
|
Will the phaseout of Coal from the UK power grid be completed as planned in September 2024?
|
The UK Government has promised to eliminate coal-fired thermal generation from the UK grid by October 2024. The three remaining units, all part of the Ratcliffe-on-Soar power station are scheduled to shut down in September 2024.
Will this be completed as scheduled?
Resolves as YES on 2024-10-01 if closure of all coal units is confirmed. Confirmation could be by press release, physical destruction or other convincing evidence (e.g. deregistration as Balancing Mechanism units).
|
2024-03-09T11:10:19
|
2024-10-01T00:16:53
|
2024-10-01T00:16:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kNcUB28VRMh5tKuUkKAY
|
Will Fallout (2024 TV series) have a Metacritic score higher than 75?
|
Will the First Season of the upcoming Fallout TV Show be rated higher than 75 on Metacritic?
Executive Produced by Todd Howard (director of Fallout 3 developer Bethesda game studios) , Lisa Joy & Jonathan Nolan (Producers of HBO's Westworld, brother of filmmaker Christopher Nolan & co-writer of The Dark Knight & Interstellar)
Resolution
Will resolve on the 12th June 2024 ( 2 months after the release on 12th April 2024)
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/V-mugKDQDlg)
|
2024-03-09T05:04:26
|
2024-06-11T14:02:39
|
2024-06-11T14:03:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EgYGAGM9NV9tbk6fAU35
|
In Inside Out 2, will Riley and this new character kiss?
|
Resolves YES, if in Inside Out 2 either Riley kisses this new character or this new character kisses Riley (or both).
The kiss must either happen on screen or be unambiguously referenced or implied in the original English voice acting version (via audio, dialogue, English subtitles, or visuals) as a part of canonical in-world events (i.e. a dream sequence will not count). The scene must be in the movie, but may be during or after the credits).
To qualify as YES, it must be between the two humans. If there were somehow a kiss only between their emotions, that would not be sufficient. Further, kissing a photo, or an image on a phone, e.g., would also not be sufficient.
[tweet]
|
2024-03-09T04:59:03
|
2024-06-14T03:59:34
|
2024-06-14T03:59:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HaVeikXmc72ueHCm4aOz
|
Will Duck Game be delisted from Steam in 2024?
|
Warner Bros Discovery have been reported to be "retiring" many games published under the Adult Swim Games label. If Duck Game is delisted from Steam such that it is no longer able to be purchased, this market will resolve YES.
If Duck Game remains on Steam and purchasable until 1st January, 2025, this market will resolve NO.
Duck Game's Steam page: https://store.steampowered.com/app/312530/Duck_Game/
Duck Game's Wikipedia page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duck_Game
|
2024-03-09T02:09:08
|
2025-01-01T01:01:49
|
2025-01-01T01:01:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-svuclD0NfaWWTkpVw4VC
|
Will Moana 2 (2024) gross more domestically at the box office than Moana (2016)?
|
Moana had a take of $248,757,044 domestically at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt3521164
If, by the end of the initial run of Moana 2, it has not grossed more than $248,757,044 domestically according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more than $248,757,044 domestically, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-03-08T21:29:51
|
2024-12-16T08:10:54
|
2024-12-16T08:10:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZJ5yJwMvA5bqhmY3pUoX
|
Will Joker: Folie à Deux (2024) gross more worldwide at the box office than Joker (2019)?
|
Joker (2019) had a take of $1,078,958,282 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt7286456
If, by the end of the initial run of Joker: Folie à Deux, it has not grossed more than $1,078,958,282 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more than $1,078,958,282 worldwide, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-03-08T20:59:17
|
2024-12-31T01:26:56
|
2024-12-31T01:26:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BN7YbvWn0FF736pKkITH
|
Will the No Labels 2024 candidate and running mate both be decently relevant?
|
Resolves yes if any of the below are true of both:
Have won state or federal election within the last decade
Have run in a state or federal race in the last six years
Have served in a major military role (two stars or above) within the past decade
Have served on a federal level court within the last four years
Have been high profile and practicing academics at an elite university in the past two years
Have been the CEO, President, Chairman, or CFO of a Fortune 500 company in the past two years
Have released or been a major part of a critically acclaimed and prominent piece of media (book, album, movie, etc) in the past two years
|
2024-03-08T18:36:03
|
2024-04-04T12:12:17
|
2024-04-04T12:12:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EkOvRHV5KB9OLnn2s4OQ
|
Will the No Labels 2024 Candidate and running mate both have decent experience?
|
Resolves yes if both the candidate and the running mate have been any of the following:
Cabinet secretary or equivalent for at least a full year
Governor for at least one full term
Senator for at least one full term
Representative for at least two full terms
Federal judge for at least four full years
Lt. governor, state level judge, or other state wide position for at least two full terms
Mayor of a city of at least 100,000 people for two full terms
State Senator, State Rep, or County level judge for over a decade
Ambassador for at least four full years
Military commander of a two star or higher rank.
The 2016 Libertarian ticket would have resolved YES as would the 2012 Libertarian ticket. The 2008 Green ticket would have been NO. John Anderson's 1980 Independent run would have resolved YES.
|
2024-03-08T18:29:36
|
2024-04-04T12:12:27
|
2024-04-04T12:12:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K0wk3NHGOQwSmEFfeFv8
|
⚽ Will Barcelona beat Napoli during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ Barcelona vs Napoli
📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Barcelona has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Napoli has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-08T16:04:04
|
2024-03-12T16:00:00
|
2024-03-12T16:02:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QLXWmvM81JVtfPZlBoWe
|
⚽ Will Chelsea beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Mar 11, 2024? Premier League 🇬🇧
|
⚽ Chelsea vs Newcastle
📅 Date: Monday, March 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Newcastle has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-03-08T16:03:55
|
2024-03-11T16:00:00
|
2024-03-11T16:01:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5WzOj5GvDZIA8ZKw7fDk
|
Will the 2024 TikTok Ban (HR 7521) be halted by a judge before the ban goes into effect
|
Resolves YES if a judge halts it from going into effect (i.e. 1st decision by Circuit Court or preliminary injunction)
Resolves NO if the ban goes into effect first OR if Bytedance divests its stake to comply with the law (Including an IPO which satisfies the divestiture requirements)
Resolves N/A if the ban does not become a law.
|
2024-03-08T15:54:38
|
2025-01-17T16:05:28
|
2025-01-17T16:05:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n2GXxWclmoehcE3IsljD
|
Will Costco close higher than 725.56 on March 15?
|
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Resolves according to Google Close Price
COST closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 725.56
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-03-08T15:42:12
|
2024-03-15T14:57:50
|
2024-03-15T14:57:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vxPhXTwJ6FfFFShVitDQ
|
Will MicroStrategy close higher than 1,425.59 on March 15?
|
MicroStrategy Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
MSTR closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 1,425.59
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-03-08T15:38:26
|
2024-03-15T14:58:00
|
2024-03-15T14:58:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9mRdztcwbBWC1zKMdp7r
|
Will Apple close higher than 170.73 on March 15?
|
Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 170.73
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-03-08T15:21:32
|
2024-03-15T14:56:52
|
2024-03-15T14:56:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v0Hv18TDRqIB9OHNKecp
|
Will Nvidia close higher than 875.28 on March 15?
|
NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 875.28
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-03-08T15:17:14
|
2024-03-15T14:57:03
|
2024-03-15T14:57:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hpF0NurRLhXuzICRQmBJ
|
Will Facebook/Meta close higher than 505.95 on March 15?
|
Meta Platforms Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
META closes at 4pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 505.95
Resolves NO if stock closes lower or flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-03-08T15:14:32
|
2024-03-15T14:57:17
|
2024-03-15T14:57:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QgRBMabtOSvI4RuPuquW
|
Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 launch on the first attempt?
|
A launch attempt is defined in terms of a SpaceX official live stream going live and showing a countdown and views of the Starship–SuperHeavy vehicle, and intended to broadcast coverage of a launch to space.
Launch is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under the thrust from its engines.
If, upon the first attempt, the vehicle launches before the live stream ends, this market resolves YES. If the live stream ends without a launch, it resolves NO.
Market remains open until the next launch attempt of a Starship–SuperHeavy vehicle, whether it is called "IFT-3" or not, and resolves NA if the development of the vehicle as we know it is abandoned.
|
2024-03-08T14:06:20
|
2024-03-14T06:26:48
|
2024-03-14T06:26:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vIQODZ6ufQI2s7vcMEVQ
|
Will bitcoin be above 69420 on 4/20
|
will the low on coinmarketcap be above 69420 on 4/20/2024?
|
2024-03-08T13:56:51
|
2024-04-20T08:53:46
|
2024-04-20T08:53:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5F4JIlyw86Z9Hb7fYIy6
|
Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of Halloween 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-08T12:54:52
|
2024-10-31T19:47:45
|
2024-10-31T19:47:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7NHp9yxc3Zm6sulYGuhq
|
[Metaculus] Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?
|
Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19942/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete in 2024 but must at least be announced in 2024. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.
If TikTok is not sold before 2025, or is banned within the US and remains banned for the entirety of 2024, this question will resolve as No.
If TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-03-08T12:44:00
|
2025-01-01T03:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:57:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbJ9DlDMQElMpzp9txGG
|
Will Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse release before the end of 2024?
|
Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse was originally scheduled for March 29, 2024 but has since been delayed.
See: @/strutheo/will-spiderman-beyond-the-spiderver-3ca4624d82d2
|
2024-03-08T12:13:45
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:18:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E0qCvI5aL1O9eyhp2ElR
|
Will Bitcoin reach $80K by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-08T07:49:49
|
2024-11-10T09:58:26
|
2024-11-10T09:58:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qnXD6aFFQlepsEGU3an3
|
Will Bitcoin become one of the Top 3 Assets by Market Cap by the end of year ?
|
Will Bitcoin climb from its current 9th position in assets by market capitalization to become one of the top 3 assets by the end of year ?
[image]this question resolves yes if Bitcoin enter the top 3 on the list https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/ before the end of the year.
__________________UPDATE________________________
Bitcoin overtook the Silver market cap for the 8th place
[image]
|
2024-03-08T03:42:23
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:30:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tK72WkqrpBH9JTS1XtoY
|
Will the United States achieve a record high voter turnout in the 2024 presidential election?
|
This question will resolve yes if any credible news sources report that more people voted in the 2024 US presidential election than in any previous US election.
|
2024-03-08T03:34:26
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:55:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbY2A8cycpljTwaeyjkS
|
Will Moana 2 (2024) gross more worldwide at the box office than Moana (2016)?
|
Moana had a take of $687,228,908 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt3521164
If, by the end of the initial run of Moana 2, it has not grossed more than $687,228,908 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.
If it grosses more than $687,228,908 worldwide, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-03-08T03:27:49
|
2024-12-16T08:10:43
|
2024-12-16T08:10:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ddo3Ll3aYuB9wRDMSJSc
|
Will the price of gold surpass $2,500 per ounce in 2024?
|
Will the price of gold surpass $2,500 per ounce in 2024?
this will resolve yes if at any point before the end of 2024 the price of gold surpasses $2500 per ounce https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price
price today
[image]________________UPDATE___________________
Gold prices hit another record high after fresh U.S. data spurs Fed cut expectations
[image]
|
2024-03-08T03:27:02
|
2024-09-08T07:59:04
|
2024-09-08T07:59:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vulhuo33DGFKpFFfliY6
|
Will Paul Christiano work at the US AI Safety Institute at the end of May 2024?
|
Recent article from VentureBeat claims: NIST staffers revolt against expected appointment of ‘effective altruist’ AI researcher to US AI Safety Institute
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is facing an internal crisis as staff members and scientists have threatened to resign over the anticipated appointment of Paul Christiano to a crucial position at the agency’s newly-formed US AI Safety Institute (AISI), according to at least two sources with direct knowledge of the situation, who asked to remain anonymous.
Christiano, who is known for his ties to the effective altruism (EA) movement and its offshoot, longtermism (a view that prioritizes the long-term future of humanity, popularized by philosopher William MacAskill), was allegedly rushed through the hiring process without anyone knowing until today, one of the sources said.
|
2024-03-08T03:26:06
|
2024-06-01T11:01:58
|
2024-06-01T11:01:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uDBwEocMLPyfIh04dFDF
|
Will Gladiator 2 (2024) gross more worldwide at the box office than Gladiator (2000)?
|
Gladiator had a take of $465,380,802 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt0172495
If, by the end of the initial run of Gladiator 2, it has not grossed more than $465,380,802 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt9218128
If it grosses more than $465,380,802 worldwide, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-03-08T03:22:15
|
2025-02-24T21:56:27
|
2025-02-24T21:56:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bbprwsuN0bHHAxSUMNZO
|
Will Nvidia stock reach $100 AND Windows 12 release AND Beyonce's album hit #1 AND Bitcoin reach $70K by EOY?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T23:32:36
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:42:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SVgHqzXeiwdAICG6uvOW
|
Will Destiny renew a contract with Kick once it expires?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T22:33:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:51:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CKD6t5vbvPmgoz9Z37JX
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before Reddit officially IPOs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T22:18:50
|
2024-03-21T15:32:56
|
2024-03-21T15:32:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Uxz0auTh8IgtKNc28YBv
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of March 14th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T22:17:15
|
2024-03-14T20:59:00
|
2024-03-14T21:25:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KrElOAqie2F0zLnynkma
|
Will there be an Israel-Hamas ceasefire announced before the end of March 20th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T22:16:26
|
2024-03-20T20:59:00
|
2024-03-20T21:47:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tPYIoZkivliAmMRWrg7X
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year at $1100 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
|
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-nvda-end-2024-at-or-abo
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
|
2024-03-07T21:42:18
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:55:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xCVzy8P2LogtVCr4DKJY
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year at $1200 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
|
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-98a5a078ff85
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-at-1-1eb2bac9cef5
|
2024-03-07T21:41:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:55:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tdac37R0UpyTeVydqwtK
|
Will Nvidia stock end the year 2024 at $1000 or more? (divide by 10 if stock split)
|
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-927c3c0aefbf
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024-98a5a078ff85
@/strutheo/will-nvidia-stock-end-the-year-2024
|
2024-03-07T21:41:12
|
2024-12-31T10:56:59
|
2024-12-31T10:56:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1TVSvRbLynaKcAsSssna
|
Will Nvidia stock end the month of April at $1000 or more?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T21:40:48
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:30:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aH2fuKqudQKOVEGxcuOf
|
Will Nvidia stock end the month of March at $1000 or more?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-03-07T21:39:19
|
2024-03-28T22:30:29
|
2024-03-28T22:30:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nfKYcfIjdj2jTGcIlKkc
|
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more worldwide at the box office than both 'Deadpool' and 'Deadpool 2'?
|
Deadpool (2016) had a take of $782,836,791 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1431045
Deadpool 2 (2018) managed to top that, getting $785,896,609 worldwide at the box office, according to Box Office Mojo: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5463162
If, by the end of the initial run of Deadpool & Wolverine, it has not grossed more than $785,896,609 worldwide according to Box Office Mojo's numbers, this market will resolve NO.
https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850
If it grosses more than $785,896,609 worldwide, this market will resolve YES.
|
2024-03-07T21:05:10
|
2024-08-05T12:30:29
|
2024-08-05T12:30:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pOcAmojwMCasngEohxIl
|
Will the 2024 USAMO contain at least one misplaced problem? (read desc)
|
The difficulty index of a problem is defined as:
number of solves for p1/p4
1.3 * number of solves for p2/p5
1.6 * number of solves for p3/p6
solve is defined as score of at least 5
Roughly, the lower the difficulty index is, the harder the problem is. This market resolves YES if and only if there exists a pair of problems (which may or may not be from the same day) such that the problem that was placed strictly later within the day that the problem was from has a strictly higher difficulty index than the one that was placed earlier.
The 1.3 and 1.6 multipliers are there to account for artificial difficulty on later problems due to less people attempting them seriously. If 2 and 3 have the same number of solves, this actually indicates that 2 was harder than 3.
Again, this market will temporarily close before USAMO due to avoid bets when discussion is forbidden
If you have a better way of comparing difficulty, suggest in comments and I might implement it
|
2024-03-07T17:43:09
|
2024-05-12T18:30:47
|
2024-05-12T18:30:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pPF7wmEWZOd63cSPAKkW
|
Will the U.S. military build a floating pier in Gaza by the end of March? 🚢🇵🇸
|
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03/07/world/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news
“the United States on Thursday announced plans for a large-scale, amphibious military operation in the Mediterranean Sea that would ferry food and other aid to desperate civilians in the enclave.”
|
2024-03-07T16:26:12
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T07:17:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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