id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-AtOiii0JrVUwmrkdXchH | Will Barcelona beat Napoli during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | ⚽ Barcelona vs Napoli
📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Barcelona has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus... | 2024-03-07T16:01:55 | 2024-03-12T16:00:00 | 2024-03-12T16:40:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OXPaNHSz4mBkE2CE7md7 | Will Arsenal beat FC Porto during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | ⚽ Arsenal vs FC Porto
📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus s... | 2024-03-07T16:01:51 | 2024-03-12T16:00:00 | 2024-03-12T16:41:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HKI19BE4jXQ1OltBnovD | [Polymarket] Will Congress pass bill banning Tiktok by April 30? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-congress-pass-bill-banning-tiktok-by-april-30?tid=1709852278365). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if a... | 2024-03-07T15:01:54 | 2024-04-27T22:56:14 | 2024-04-27T22:56:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TkeEpaeXzgyQU0ANSAnm | Will the Ethereum (ETH) price reach $5,800 before the end of 2024? | $5800 is 20% above the Ethereum ATH and roughly equivalent to $100k BTC
Will it happen during this cycle? | 2024-03-07T12:27:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:30:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bvZxYVzzRqrcVDwkfW6Z | Will Jimmy Carter be alive on May 1 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-07T10:49:16 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-02T04:24:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MTYQbr2d2gxwSQKoj3FF | Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $160? (again) | Last price: 2024-May-02 $173.03 (after hours $183.46 due to reported earnings)
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-07) during which the pri... | 2024-03-07T10:08:55 | 2024-05-03T13:20:46 | 2024-05-03T13:20:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BcJaDLRR8tgiwx39ocuj | Will another USA president or former president die before Jimmy Carter does? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-07T09:03:10 | 2024-12-29T18:57:23 | 2024-12-29T18:57:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mQnfyRLgaqbv3invrnwy | Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match go ahead on 20th July? | Promoters have announced that 80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson will take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July.
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/07/mike-tyson-jake-paul-boxing-fight-netflix-date-cowboys
Will this fight actually go ahead?
If the ... | 2024-03-07T08:54:39 | 2024-06-01T06:48:27 | 2024-06-01T06:48:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JLUFus0A6ylH2vEPOOUH | Will ByteDance release an open model more powerful than Gemini before July? | Previously: @/AlyssaVance/will-bytedance-soon-release-an-open
On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said:
"Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now."
"Open source?"
"Open model ... | 2024-03-07T08:02:45 | 2024-07-01T23:59:00 | 2024-07-12T21:25:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kiwIeI0Gv1e74c88NoX2 | Will "Dune: Part Two" gross >$40 million (domestic) during its 2nd weekend (March 8-10)? (a ~51% drop) | Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs.
For example, "Dune: Part Two" released on March 1st, and grossed $82,505,391 during its first (i.e. opening) weekend (March 1st - 3rd). Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W09/?ref_=bo_wey_table_8.
This is the equivalent number I will... | 2024-03-07T07:37:39 | 2024-03-11T16:29:48 | 2024-03-11T16:29:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0vR0zJNIMMoYMtyQwZ3T | Will there be a General Election in the UK this year? | Resolves YES if GE if called for this year.
Resolves NO if GE is not called for this year - i.e if it takes place in 2025 this market resolves no. | 2024-03-07T05:02:18 | 2024-05-22T11:58:35 | 2024-05-22T11:58:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ff78rip86Y2c9FscBZxk | Will Elon Musk announce that he will be a father again before the Ides of March? | He has to announce it himself e.g. on his social media account, official spokesperson of him is okay as well. Article in the tabloid press claiming he will be a father again isn't sufficient. | 2024-03-07T03:00:25 | 2024-03-15T15:59:00 | 2024-03-15T16:22:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W7rJJJjr5ivhSqSA7DYa | Irish referendum 2024 - Will voters vote yes to the 40th Amendment (Care)? | On Friday 8th March, Irish voters are being asked to vote on the proposed 39th and 40th amendments to the Irish constitution.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums
These amendments are widely considered to be progressive rather than conservative.
The bills setting up this refere... | 2024-03-07T01:40:05 | 2024-03-10T00:31:17 | 2024-03-10T00:31:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EsRkUKTCiIcwnnrr7Uqs | Will Jimmy Carter make it through April Fools' Day? | Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
Tropic 7 | Civ 7 | Farcry 7
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
mira |
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on April 1, 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't al... | 2024-03-06T21:20:48 | 2024-04-01T20:57:25 | 2024-04-01T20:57:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OHuSAw44zkWm8kHeAkjQ | Will Jimmy Carter survive the Day of the Dead? | Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
mira |
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Nov 2, 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Nov 2, 2... | 2024-03-06T21:18:59 | 2024-11-02T21:59:00 | 2024-11-06T00:45:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uRoMYGTTyTpUVH0nNw1i | Will Jimmy Carter be alive for Cinco de Mayo? | Jimmy Markets | Dashboard | Wiki | Naval Service
April Fools | Cinco De Mayo | Day of the Dead
mira |
Week | Month | Quarter | Season | Year
Odds | Evens | Weekday | Weekend | Federal Holiday
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 4 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 4 202... | 2024-03-06T21:15:54 | 2024-05-04T21:59:00 | 2024-05-05T20:19:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WP0BxtWbqn6ymoIBaZrG | Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of April 2024? | The package must have >$1 billion in new aid to Ukraine, and the House and Senate must pass the same version of the bill by April 30th to resolve YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.
See also:
@/Domer/will-the-united-states-congress-pas
@/Leminspector/will-congress-pass-a-new-ukraine-ai
@/MichaelSchmatz/will-congress-pas... | 2024-03-06T18:35:58 | 2024-04-23T18:47:31 | 2024-04-23T18:47:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CfJPJFRIKjg2Oesiaymi | Will SpaceX’s 3rd Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“ (of either stage)? | Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test breaks up in flight, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)".
RUD of just the lower or upper stage or both would count.
Examples of things that don't count: Hitting the ground intact and being destroyed on contact with the surface, or a... | 2024-03-06T17:44:39 | 2024-03-14T07:45:48 | 2024-03-14T07:45:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R8o6SwuPbGwk4uqmtjGh | Will the 3rd Starship test reach at least 200km altitude? (plan is 235km) | Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test reaches an altitude of at least 200km. Otherwise NO.
For context: "The most recent FCC filling shows that SpaceX intends to launch IFT-3 into a 235km apogee" according to https://starship-spacex.fandom.com/wiki/Starship_Flight_Test_3. However, even if the ... | 2024-03-06T17:30:56 | 2024-03-14T06:40:30 | 2024-03-14T06:40:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZrrjDW4H0Wqe6bydsM2m | Will the 3rd Starship test activate the Flight Termination System? | Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship space flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System on either the upper or lower stage or both. Otherwise NO.
This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude t... | 2024-03-06T17:26:23 | 2024-03-22T17:13:46 | 2024-03-22T17:13:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wMuUxGdT872pJEv3OKaE | Will Chelsea beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Mar 11, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Chelsea vs Newcastle
📅 Date: Monday, March 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage... | 2024-03-06T16:01:47 | 2024-03-11T16:00:00 | 2024-03-11T18:11:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gCd8NDYHU90Pj23mx9JT | Will Volodymyr Zelensky be killed in 2024? | There were recent reports of a Russian attack that struck very close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he was hosting the Greek Prime Minister.
It’s possible that Zelenskyy will be killed during the war, either as a result of a Russian attack, by an accident of war, or even by rogue forces.
Will Volodym... | 2024-03-06T15:29:11 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:34:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QyQvzQaJ5WIOELX0gYVP | Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025? | Resolves YES if any of Deep Mind, Anthropic, or Open AI publicly releases an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness, sentience, etc. by EOD on December 31. Using the word "consciousness" is not required, provided a similar term is used and the commitment is intended to address concerns about models' internal sta... | 2024-03-06T14:57:29 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-16T08:53:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GGJ72B1XwqqxxBDgaVzl | Will a candidate not named Donald Trump or Joe Biden participate in a presidential debate in 2024? | In order for a debate to count towards this question at least one candidate in the debate must represent one of the two major parties. IE A debate between RFK Jr and Biden would resolve YES but a debate between RFK Jr and Cornell West would not count.
EDIT: Vice presidential debates also wont count towards this questi... | 2024-03-06T14:52:36 | 2024-09-11T12:34:15 | 2024-09-11T12:34:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-psKfTdWtZgjbymloDkvV | [short fuse] Will California voters pass Prop 1 in the March 5, 2024 election? | Based on NYT and state website results.
Currently Yes and No are neck and neck. Will it pass? | 2024-03-06T13:19:29 | 2024-03-20T19:49:00 | 2024-03-20T19:49:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y8bmtr1MHvaKYRsHg3db | Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a debate before the end of April? | [image]Trump says he wants debates anytime, anyplace. What if Joe says "sure, how about next week?" | 2024-03-06T12:25:44 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T03:56:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xaNCakgpdrgEEJCgHFBl | Will Sweden join NATO by March 7th 2024 at 12:34 PM Eastern Time? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-06T11:02:36 | 2024-03-07T09:17:30 | 2024-03-07T09:17:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GYAAQ6CmZVglamDaefKt | Will every letter in the alphabet be used at least twice in the State of the union address? | This will resolve based on the transcript published by the NYT after the state of the union. Here is the 2023 transcript https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/biden-state-of-the-union-transcript.html
this would have resolved yes in 2023 | 2024-03-06T09:34:36 | 2024-03-07T20:59:00 | 2024-03-08T03:49:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KHRYDxwTUuiiAg5seQdv | 👻 Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross more than "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" during its opening weekend? (>$44M) | Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/ will be used to resolve this market.
The "Domestic Opening" listed for "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" (2021) is $44,008,406.
Thus, this market resolves to YES if "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" grosses more than $4... | 2024-03-06T08:32:19 | 2024-03-26T23:05:27 | 2024-03-26T23:05:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gvyVQOZm9TqrxvmEIZid | Will Joe Biden say the word “Cricket” (as it relates to the sport) in public any time in 2024? | The T20 cricket World Cup takes place in the Caribbean and the US this year. Only counts if there is an audio/video clip accessible on the internet. | 2024-03-06T07:56:30 | 2024-12-31T05:59:00 | 2025-01-20T12:46:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pebCX5ykcyUMUo0kdj2z | Will Kamala Harris refuse to certify the results of the 2024 election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-06T01:59:59 | 2025-01-06T11:41:56 | 2025-01-06T11:41:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xCkxZU5QiJ3cwpcfNo9N | Will Elon Musk loan or donate to Trump any money by EOY 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T23:11:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-27T14:11:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iYZhu7fr9rvYSUWj3HrS | Will Twitter AND Google both get new CEOs in the year 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T21:11:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T09:34:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SUe6veYYBzcETvSpf5h4 | Will Oppenheimer win best picture AND Bitcoin reach $70K AND Nintendo announce a new console by EOY 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T20:53:28 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T11:16:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CQfdeDi64L4yB8KgyZVh | Will Tesla reach $200 on or before May 1, 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T19:37:38 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-02T06:47:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y0Xmv6AsGI3oxlM3cKQb | Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 90% or more of the vote? | This is a variation of cshunter's question but with the threshold set to 90%.
Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows:
2018: 77.53%
2012: 64.35%
2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmi... | 2024-03-05T18:40:28 | 2024-03-18T06:51:20 | 2024-03-18T06:51:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r13PhDYlNzOe5amy8n0Q | Will we find out more about Blackbeard’s lineage/bloodline by EOY 2024? | It’s clear Blackbeard has a special lineage/bloodline, as confirmed by Saturn in chapter 1107.
Resolves as “YES” if we find any details about what makes Blackbeard so special (his bloodline) by 00:00:00 January 1st, 2025.
Resolves as “NO” otherwise.
I don’t answer my own questions. | 2024-03-05T17:53:34 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-19T08:40:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x2b7l2IPX38JbTIIT0ui | Will Aston Villa beat Tottenham during regular time on Sun, Mar 10, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham
📅 Date: Sunday, March 10, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Aston Villa has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus ... | 2024-03-05T16:01:42 | 2024-03-10T09:00:00 | 2024-03-10T15:38:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RDVM1gzoCcyg7JVglfSn | Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024? | CNN's exit poll in 2020 found Biden+75, Fox found Biden +83. Resolves Yes if the mean between the two sources is <D+79 | 2024-03-05T15:29:31 | 2024-11-11T01:15:45 | 2024-11-11T01:15:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ux0hSv37tCFYzRCEisb0 | Will Joe Biden resign the presidency at any point during this term or potential future term? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T13:40:23 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:31:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y7Wt35J6Twz61vlIus0x | Will chapter 1111 of One Piece have at least 3 two-page spreads? | Chapter 1109 had 3 of them (8-9, 10-11,and 13-15). What about 1111?
I'll use the way TCB scans publishes pages as a metric for what constitutes a two-page spread (other groups may upload spreads as 2 separate pictures). It does not need to be a single panel that fills both pages.
Resolves whenever I read the chapter ... | 2024-03-05T13:15:24 | 2024-03-22T13:40:55 | 2024-03-22T13:40:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MBwi6hrG93s6FG1TZj8P | At EOY 2024, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok? | US politicians are once again making moves to ban or force divestment on TikTok in. Will it succeed this time, and if so when?
Some other questions ask if TikTok will "be banned" or "forced to change ownership", which describes an earlier part of the process or seems vague. This question concerns the actual ownership,... | 2024-03-05T11:28:10 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:30:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7eSjNPYWG2kA76qhjSWV | Will Sweden join NATO before the end of St Patrick's Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T10:47:08 | 2024-03-07T09:56:06 | 2024-03-07T09:56:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1PUOjhx6ClT1z2ex2IRS | Will Destiny visit Israel in 2024? | [tweet] | 2024-03-05T09:50:22 | 2024-06-01T06:44:16 | 2024-06-01T06:44:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yNu9YnOnlJwKAQ3nJjWy | Will Sweden join NATO before the end of March 8th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T09:16:56 | 2024-03-07T09:09:48 | 2024-03-07T09:09:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pDbaLkuaYN1RlraheHmc | At the end of 2024 will Bitcoin be closer to $100K than $50K? | Bitcoin price as reported by Google | 2024-03-05T08:17:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T19:37:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k1IrWCgQfhnsZcn3AOiq | NBA Finals - Will the Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets be the two teams that play in the NBA Finals in June 2024? | NBA Finals begin on June 6, 2024. I may bet on this question. | 2024-03-05T06:42:54 | 2024-05-19T19:32:43 | 2024-05-19T19:32:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lv6QSHGUQCWG2wsLUgsb | Will five quarterbacks be drafted in the top twenty picks at the 2024 NFL Draft? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-05T00:59:23 | 2024-04-25T22:05:21 | 2024-04-25T22:05:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TXJwsCKs0ue1sjWYsEt2 | Will Ferrari win 2 races before Max Verstappen wins 8? | Only 2024 feature (full length) races count.
Any Ferrari driver counts.
Goes by official race results after all penalties, if any, are applied.
Resolves as soon as one of the two events occurs.
Resolves n/a if neither event happens this season.
7 races completed:
Ferrari: 1
Max: 5 | 2024-03-04T23:10:58 | 2024-05-26T10:15:27 | 2024-05-26T10:15:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DXAyR1kNHyokAdy3JqC | How will Bitcoin preform in 2024? | There are 101 possible resolution outcomes to this market. If this doesn't resolve yes or no, it will resolve to a % at the end of the year based on what BTC price closes at on the last day. Resolves to Investing
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a high of 100,000
Resolves No if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a lo... | 2024-03-04T21:15:40 | 2024-12-04T18:57:59 | 2024-12-04T18:57:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-35XWFz2weLk7gIsSld51 | Will Bitcoin trade above $70,000 in march? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T21:12:37 | 2024-03-08T17:27:26 | 2024-03-08T17:27:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TNF9DS4mgiGVkky9ssgi | Will the Workers Party of Britain win any seats at the next UK General Election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T19:53:01 | 2024-07-06T16:44:29 | 2024-07-06T16:44:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3let40Fv0UvJgXfcKv5n | Will there be a perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T19:39:06 | 2024-10-30T21:03:16 | 2024-10-30T21:03:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hmbcAr9oDo5Xr9XT6xQH | Will Bitcoin hit $70K in March 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-04T19:04:04 | 2024-03-10T11:42:33 | 2024-03-10T11:42:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GkGVVhKxHk6F8r9bak9Q | Will Bitcoin hit $72K in March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T19:03:47 | 2024-03-11T12:16:43 | 2024-03-11T12:16:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-U0yX28gWmK1D1Z25veX5 | Will Bitcoin hit $75K in March 2024? | https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle. | 2024-03-04T19:02:58 | 2024-03-30T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T00:02:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aDSi3wOU2nmeaf7XheHB | Will Dune 2 gross over $1 billion at the worldwide box office? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T18:43:07 | 2024-04-11T19:03:29 | 2024-04-11T19:03:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9EGl1XbCr91UfYv8SCid | Will the Russian Ukraine war ends before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T17:21:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:30:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0S6CtH9x9oCwa0JZFz3H | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day that Reddit IPOs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T16:44:01 | 2024-03-21T20:31:03 | 2024-03-21T20:31:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ke8rX1Pr1ieVmYzQoVp1 | Will ~all Claude premium users have access to 1m token context window by June 1st? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T16:03:24 | 2024-06-02T20:59:00 | 2024-06-10T08:18:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8XAupe2g3lO8P2Cok3Tx | Will Crystal Palace beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 9, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Crystal Palace vs Luton
📅 Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Crystal Palace has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time pl... | 2024-03-04T16:01:47 | 2024-03-09T10:00:00 | 2024-03-09T10:58:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YuJ7mNmjeWAeHckQ9Mcw | Will Amazon's ‘Fallout’ (2024) have an audience score above 60% on Rotten Tomatoes on April 26th? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T15:33:35 | 2024-04-26T13:45:22 | 2024-04-26T13:45:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hgVqlWvPYt0br7H9Q5mF | Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (yet again!) | Last price: 2024-Mar-28 $171.48
(will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close)
Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-01) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) fo... | 2024-03-04T14:57:39 | 2024-04-02T13:10:32 | 2024-04-02T13:10:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-I2HJPBeSvVq5pC1UjMs1 | Will Bitcoin hit $77,777 before $55,555? | Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $77,777 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $55,555 first
Market close date will be extended as needed. | 2024-03-04T13:19:59 | 2024-07-04T21:30:34 | 2024-07-04T21:30:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zR3bDPjkRVf2VfdB1YmC | Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4-1106-preview on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard? | Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks GPT-4-1106-preview at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point.
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
For a version that includes any GPT-4 model released during that ti... | 2024-03-04T12:42:49 | 2024-03-21T08:19:00 | 2024-03-21T09:07:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fIMF2qc97iBt7X3OSgHk | Will GPT-4's successor be released this week? | Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it. | 2024-03-04T10:18:40 | 2024-03-11T04:01:00 | 2024-03-11T04:36:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i4EeRJk3ay8bOyEla489 | Will Bitcoin price surpass $99,999 before 9/9? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD | 2024-03-04T08:28:07 | 2024-09-09T10:01:02 | 2024-09-09T10:01:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-08LJfhwpzlnXJu92WGmY | Will bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of March? | The price of BTC is over $66666 on the day this market was made, will it still be above $66666 at the end of March?
Using price from Google | 2024-03-04T08:20:59 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-03-31T21:11:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PhL157P3YYVDEOmIjAQb | Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of 6/6? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-04T08:20:16 | 2024-06-06T21:11:18 | 2024-06-06T21:11:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hrUoioShIbKJMRAhu05b | Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before 7/7? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD | 2024-03-04T08:19:41 | 2024-07-07T07:06:32 | 2024-07-07T07:06:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-23lPxTXHdNkHUaomqzgY | Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard? | Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks the best-performing GPT-4 model at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point.
(GPT-4.5 would not count as a GPT-4 model.)
https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard
EDIT: Cl... | 2024-03-04T07:38:22 | 2024-03-21T08:19:00 | 2024-03-21T09:27:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wxPEH8T7t7jUlIeJ6VPJ | Will Cardano Reach a Dollar Before the End of March? | will Cardano reach 1 dollar in https://coinmarketcap.com/pt-br/currencies/cardano/ at any point in time before the end of march.
______________price in 03/04/2024_________________
[image] | 2024-03-04T07:23:21 | 2024-03-31T19:59:00 | 2024-04-01T02:22:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Akop4FYN2OCFpPCKbOXC | Will any Claude 3 variant reach top 3 rank on LMSYS leaderboard by 15 March 2024? | https://chat.lmsys.org/ | 2024-03-04T07:12:54 | 2024-03-07T10:12:01 | 2024-03-07T10:12:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iRn5khcEyIDKYCOs8EmC | Will Claude 3 turn out to be better than or equal to GPT-4 in perceived performance? | I will try it myself and decide by the end of the month.
Resolves YES if any of the Claude 3 variants perform better than or equal to the best GPT-4. | 2024-03-04T07:05:53 | 2024-05-24T11:20:13 | 2024-05-24T11:20:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sQRBunV5k2jkPDk15AWK | Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before the end of 2024? | Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD | 2024-03-04T06:42:50 | 2024-11-11T11:18:15 | 2024-11-11T11:18:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3oL3vMUAFkLNPMOOlXlI | Will ETH increase MoM in Mar, 2024? | Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance. | 2024-03-04T06:40:01 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T04:33:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iuCtquyJ6P0BVqHgadbA | Will Bitcoin reach 69420 by March 15th? | March 15th is defined as end of day UTC
Bitcoin price is defined as a printed trade at 69420 spot price on Binance | 2024-03-04T06:24:03 | 2024-03-08T10:13:39 | 2024-03-08T10:13:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MiYKcO3SMlpUqgbRh9TK | Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024? | It doesn't have to be exactly that, but something similar to it. Yes, that's subjective, but I think any more objective criteria will be goodhearted in the fight between twitter and the bots.
Resolves NO if people still see that regularly, YES if it's much less common than it is now. | 2024-03-04T03:55:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-08T23:12:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-298Vyn12n5aba4pYtr5U | Will Destiny attend Manifest 2024? | [image] | 2024-03-04T02:27:08 | 2024-06-10T12:58:54 | 2024-06-10T12:58:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-i7GoraRmufAGZAlNYAXE | Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of 2024? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-03-04T00:55:01 | 2024-11-07T10:43:57 | 2024-11-07T10:43:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WWSSTwWj9LXmTN02XySe | Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of Autism Awareness Day? (April 2) | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-03-04T00:54:07 | 2024-04-02T20:59:00 | 2024-04-02T21:08:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-db35JXR76He4NhzSmODi | Will Sweden join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $75K? | Going by Google for Bitcoin price | 2024-03-04T00:47:17 | 2024-03-07T09:56:12 | 2024-03-07T09:56:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N4aiwKT8lHZ8Pe58UAIO | Will Bitcoin reach $75K before the end of May Day? (May 1) | Using Google for the price. | 2024-03-04T00:45:17 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T21:17:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xwv3CrxjVBbkPXaS70Jv | Will Apple release a new iPad by May 2024? | Resolves YES if a new Apple iPad model is available for US consumers to purchase any time before May 1, 2024. Updates to existing model lines (iPad pro, air, mini, etc.) all count.
Edge cases: If a new model is available for pre-order before April 1, resolves YES. If a new model is announced, but not available for pur... | 2024-03-03T23:01:20 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T08:12:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aF6FeynTYYiAS0WC8Eyq | Will the EU get a Defense Commissioner following the election? | Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen said it would be “reasonable” to create the post, should she secure a second term at the helm of the EU institution after June’s European elections. (source)
Resolves YES if the next commission after the election in June has a dedicated defense commissioner pos... | 2024-03-03T22:44:04 | 2024-12-12T14:59:00 | 2024-12-28T16:25:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nRoK5upuuqi4MJ8s4OkP | Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-03T21:40:44 | 2024-10-31T13:08:46 | 2024-10-31T13:08:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XDEBcuPbYpXPoIanRyei | Israel:Hamas ceasefire in March? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸 | At any point in the month of March will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
Israel and Hamas end their war
Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO a... | 2024-03-03T16:41:18 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T06:30:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rUe19GhdbKcdlqoNI4RP | Will the 2024 FIDE Candidates chess tournament be held in Toronto, Canada? | Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (https://candidates2024.fide.com/) is held in Toronto, otherwise NO. | 2024-03-03T14:52:11 | 2024-04-03T20:31:16 | 2024-04-03T20:31:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-02L1OjjSkTFAwqIzOtQC | Will The Verge launch an ActivityPub integration before May 1? | ActivityPub is the protocol that the Fediverse, which includes Mastodon, is built on. Nilay Patel, The Verge's EIC, has been talking about how the plan for The Verge is to federate more of their site for a while (you can hear him lay it out here), but so far none of that has happened publicly.
Will resolve YES if The ... | 2024-03-03T14:51:54 | 2024-04-30T23:59:00 | 2024-05-01T00:31:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Va5dSloFJHIX9Q2MjcOY | Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) gross >$40M on its opening weekend? | This market will resolve to YES if "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) grosses more than $40,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/ will be used to resolve this market.
Details:
I will ... | 2024-03-03T13:18:14 | 2024-03-11T16:26:59 | 2024-03-11T16:26:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5zat9XTUJ4N39zJF0vFB | Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy? | If you add up the chances these candidates have in current markets, it seems more likely than not that one of these four people will be Trump's choice for VP. But how likely exactly?
It's possible these candidates' odds have been individually distorted due to the complex nature of multiple choice markets with many op... | 2024-03-03T10:49:20 | 2024-07-15T12:21:51 | 2024-07-15T12:21:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-had84NRv6wyl96ayWLvg | Will Trump announce his Vice President running mate before the end of Juneteenth? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-03-03T10:05:04 | 2024-06-19T18:03:49 | 2024-06-19T18:03:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ujp52Bu5bgxA4d3WkRtC | Will Mike Pence endorse or says he intends to vote for Trump? | Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral.
This market is intent to have a better title but identical resolution criteria of this one:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BT... | 2024-03-02T16:43:44 | 2024-11-06T01:49:08 | 2024-11-06T01:49:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GJj8oqipDWtwEpkjVCvY | Will the next NYT / Siena poll be more favorable for Biden than the March 2nd one? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html\n\nThe latest NYT / Siena poll was released today, and shows Trump leading Biden by 5%. This is substantially worse for Biden than their most recent poll last year. Will things shift in Biden's favor by the time next poll is released in a few months? \n\nResolves based on Trump's vote share minus Biden's vote share being less in the next poll than this one. Resolves NO if the polls show the same result. Resolves N/A if the two results are not directly comparable (e.g. RV versus LV, or the next poll includes third-party candidates)." | 2024-03-02T11:39:06 | 2024-04-13T10:45:19 | 2024-04-13T10:45:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rlKwKh2HtATRRymu5Wf9 | Will Trump beat Biden again in the next New York Times/Sienna national poll? | The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally.
Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before th... | 2024-03-02T10:53:47 | 2024-04-13T07:59:10 | 2024-04-13T07:59:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1wOtpdjYH3MWaMyIZ0nL | Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day? | The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally.
Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before th... | 2024-03-02T10:51:51 | 2024-11-03T17:25:21 | 2024-11-03T17:25:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JNXecCr0xf1lvGJwiK19 | Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of Trump's Taco Bowl Tweet? | [image] | 2024-03-02T10:01:32 | 2024-03-06T10:24:21 | 2024-03-06T10:24:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2alweinFj3cINlAHey5G | Will Q* be legally considered AGI? | ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/\n\n[image]For a judicial determination that Q* and/or other OpenAI next generation large language models in development constitute(s) Artificial General Intelligence\n\nResolves YES if judgment C is granted, or any other court ruling causing Q* or other LLMs distinct from GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.\n\nResolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing Q* or non-GPT-4 LLM to be legally considered AGI is presented.\n\nResolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.\n\nResolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.\n\nTraders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.\n\nDefault close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.\n\nSee also: @/MiraBot/will-gpt4-be-legally-considered-agi \n\n@/MiraBot/will-elon-musks-qgpt4-are-agi-lawsu " | 2024-03-02T09:10:50 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:14:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nr0uxH7O7OkGO2xH9Wtr | Will Logan Sargeant last the full 2024 Formula 1 season? | Resolves NO if a replacement driver for Sargeant is announced for any races this season, due to Sargeant's performance and not e.g. injury, or penalty points accumulation. UNLESS the replacement driver is Alex Albon because Williams has only one car; that doesn’t count. | 2024-03-02T08:27:55 | 2024-08-27T10:29:02 | 2024-08-27T10:29:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9ujeJESzfgiTDz0NVyI1 | Will the Houthis sink a second ship before 2025? | It's been confirmed the Houthis sank their first ship in the Red Sea, the Rubymar. This market resolves YES if they manage to sink another one.
Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its own, or is not salvageable so it is purposely sank by a third party. Small ships are excluded, the ship must be over ... | 2024-03-02T07:32:30 | 2024-06-19T15:22:37 | 2024-06-19T15:22:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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