collingray/forecasting · Datasets at Hugging Face

id stringlengths 8 25	question stringlengths 13 209	description stringlengths 0 7.87k	open_date stringlengths 19 20	close_date stringlengths 19 27	resolve_date stringlengths 19 20	resolution stringclasses 2 values	source stringclasses 2 values
mani-AtOiii0JrVUwmrkdXchH	Will Barcelona beat Napoli during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺	⚽ Barcelona vs Napoli 📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Barcelona has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Napoli has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google	2024-03-07T16:01:55	2024-03-12T16:00:00	2024-03-12T16:40:38	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-OXPaNHSz4mBkE2CE7md7	Will Arsenal beat FC Porto during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺	⚽ Arsenal vs FC Porto 📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Arsenal has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - FC Porto has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google	2024-03-07T16:01:51	2024-03-12T16:00:00	2024-03-12T16:41:54	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-HKI19BE4jXQ1OltBnovD	[Polymarket] Will Congress pass bill banning Tiktok by April 30?	This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-congress-pass-bill-banning-tiktok-by-april-30?tid=1709852278365). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market. The description of the original market: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."	2024-03-07T15:01:54	2024-04-27T22:56:14	2024-04-27T22:56:14	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-TkeEpaeXzgyQU0ANSAnm	Will the Ethereum (ETH) price reach $5,800 before the end of 2024?	$5800 is 20% above the Ethereum ATH and roughly equivalent to $100k BTC Will it happen during this cycle?	2024-03-07T12:27:31	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-01T07:30:54	no	MANIFOLD
mani-bvZxYVzzRqrcVDwkfW6Z	Will Jimmy Carter be alive on May 1	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-07T10:49:16	2024-05-01T20:59:00	2024-05-02T04:24:49	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-MTYQbr2d2gxwSQKoj3FF	Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $160? (again)	Last price: 2024-May-02 $173.03 (after hours $183.46 due to reported earnings) (will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close) Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-07) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $160 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $160 Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $170 then quoted prices next day would be $85 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)	2024-03-07T10:08:55	2024-05-03T13:20:46	2024-05-03T13:20:46	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-BcJaDLRR8tgiwx39ocuj	Will another USA president or former president die before Jimmy Carter does?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-07T09:03:10	2024-12-29T18:57:23	2024-12-29T18:57:23	no	MANIFOLD
mani-mQnfyRLgaqbv3invrnwy	Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match go ahead on 20th July?	Promoters have announced that 80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson will take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/07/mike-tyson-jake-paul-boxing-fight-netflix-date-cowboys Will this fight actually go ahead? If the fight is cancelled or delayed or if one or both contenders fail to show up, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight goes ahead and both contenders are present for the starting bell, this market will resolve to YES.	2024-03-07T08:54:39	2024-06-01T06:48:27	2024-06-01T06:48:27	no	MANIFOLD
mani-JLUFus0A6ylH2vEPOOUH	Will ByteDance release an open model more powerful than Gemini before July?	Previously: @/AlyssaVance/will-bytedance-soon-release-an-open On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said: "Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now." "Open source?" "Open model weights." https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798 Resolves YES if this happens unambiguously before July. Comparison will be between the strongest publicly available version of any new Bytedance model with open weights and the strongest publicly available version of Gemini Ultra at the time of that Bytedance model's release. If there is no such ByteDance model, this resolves NO by default. I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased. Let me know if you have any suggestions for any updates to the specific resolution criteria within the spirit of the market.	2024-03-07T08:02:45	2024-07-01T23:59:00	2024-07-12T21:25:18	no	MANIFOLD
mani-kiwIeI0Gv1e74c88NoX2	Will "Dune: Part Two" gross >$40 million (domestic) during its 2nd weekend (March 8-10)? (a ~51% drop)	Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs. For example, "Dune: Part Two" released on March 1st, and grossed $82,505,391 during its first (i.e. opening) weekend (March 1st - 3rd). Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W09/?ref_=bo_wey_table_8. This is the equivalent number I will use (the "Gross" column), but instead for the weekend of March 8th - 10th (its second at the box office). If the gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo is >$40,000,000, this market resolves YES. I will use the weekend gross posted by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (again note this is domestic). For context, as "Dune: Part Two" grossed $82.5M on its opening weekend, this would represent an approximately ~48% drop. In their respective second weekend, the original "Dune" (2021) dropped ~61%, while "Oppenheimer" (2023) dropped ~43%.	2024-03-07T07:37:39	2024-03-11T16:29:48	2024-03-11T16:29:48	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-0vR0zJNIMMoYMtyQwZ3T	Will there be a General Election in the UK this year?	Resolves YES if GE if called for this year. Resolves NO if GE is not called for this year - i.e if it takes place in 2025 this market resolves no.	2024-03-07T05:02:18	2024-05-22T11:58:35	2024-05-22T11:58:35	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-Ff78rip86Y2c9FscBZxk	Will Elon Musk announce that he will be a father again before the Ides of March?	He has to announce it himself e.g. on his social media account, official spokesperson of him is okay as well. Article in the tabloid press claiming he will be a father again isn't sufficient.	2024-03-07T03:00:25	2024-03-15T15:59:00	2024-03-15T16:22:25	no	MANIFOLD
mani-W7rJJJjr5ivhSqSA7DYa	Irish referendum 2024 - Will voters vote yes to the 40th Amendment (Care)?	On Friday 8th March, Irish voters are being asked to vote on the proposed 39th and 40th amendments to the Irish constitution. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums These amendments are widely considered to be progressive rather than conservative. The bills setting up this referendum have been passed by the Dail and Seanad (the equivalent to the lower and upper houses) and the Taoiseach supports them meaning that the referendum is the final step in passing the amendments other than some formalities. The 40th amendment modifies section 41 of the constitution. It would remove this section: In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved. The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home. And add in the following: The State recognises that the provision of care, by members of a family to one another by reason of the bonds that exist among them, gives to Society a support without which the common good cannot be achieved, and shall strive to support such provision. Once the results of the referendum has been returned, this market will resolve to YES if a simple majority of voters vote yes to the 40th amendment.	2024-03-07T01:40:05	2024-03-10T00:31:17	2024-03-10T00:31:17	no	MANIFOLD
mani-EsRkUKTCiIcwnnrr7Uqs	Will Jimmy Carter make it through April Fools' Day?	Jimmy Markets \| Dashboard \| Wiki \| Naval Service Tropic 7 \| Civ 7 \| Farcry 7 April Fools \| Cinco De Mayo \| Day of the Dead mira \| Week \| Month \| Quarter \| Season \| Year Odds \| Evens \| Weekday \| Weekend \| Federal Holiday Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on April 1, 2024 Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on April 1, 2024	2024-03-06T21:20:48	2024-04-01T20:57:25	2024-04-01T20:57:25	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-OHuSAw44zkWm8kHeAkjQ	Will Jimmy Carter survive the Day of the Dead?	Jimmy Markets \| Dashboard \| Wiki \| Naval Service April Fools \| Cinco De Mayo \| Day of the Dead mira \| Week \| Month \| Quarter \| Season \| Year Odds \| Evens \| Weekday \| Weekend \| Federal Holiday Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on Nov 2, 2024 Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on Nov 2, 2024	2024-03-06T21:18:59	2024-11-02T21:59:00	2024-11-06T00:45:58	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-uRoMYGTTyTpUVH0nNw1i	Will Jimmy Carter be alive for Cinco de Mayo?	Jimmy Markets \| Dashboard \| Wiki \| Naval Service April Fools \| Cinco De Mayo \| Day of the Dead mira \| Week \| Month \| Quarter \| Season \| Year Odds \| Evens \| Weekday \| Weekend \| Federal Holiday Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 4 2024 Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on May 4 2024	2024-03-06T21:15:54	2024-05-04T21:59:00	2024-05-05T20:19:46	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-WP0BxtWbqn6ymoIBaZrG	Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of April 2024?	The package must have >$1 billion in new aid to Ukraine, and the House and Senate must pass the same version of the bill by April 30th to resolve YES. Otherwise, resolves NO. See also: @/Domer/will-the-united-states-congress-pas @/Leminspector/will-congress-pass-a-new-ukraine-ai @/MichaelSchmatz/will-congress-pass-a-new-ukraine-ai-6c662aab046c	2024-03-06T18:35:58	2024-04-23T18:47:31	2024-04-23T18:47:31	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-CfJPJFRIKjg2Oesiaymi	Will SpaceX’s 3rd Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“ (of either stage)?	Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test breaks up in flight, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)". RUD of just the lower or upper stage or both would count. Examples of things that don't count: Hitting the ground intact and being destroyed on contact with the surface, or a single engine having a fire. We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.	2024-03-06T17:44:39	2024-03-14T07:45:48	2024-03-14T07:45:48	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-R8o6SwuPbGwk4uqmtjGh	Will the 3rd Starship test reach at least 200km altitude? (plan is 235km)	Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test reaches an altitude of at least 200km. Otherwise NO. For context: "The most recent FCC filling shows that SpaceX intends to launch IFT-3 into a 235km apogee" according to https://starship-spacex.fandom.com/wiki/Starship_Flight_Test_3. However, even if the planned trajectory changes, the question is still about whether it reaches 200km. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.	2024-03-06T17:30:56	2024-03-14T06:40:30	2024-03-14T06:40:30	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-ZrrjDW4H0Wqe6bydsM2m	Will the 3rd Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?	Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship space flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System on either the upper or lower stage or both. Otherwise NO. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.	2024-03-06T17:26:23	2024-03-22T17:13:46	2024-03-22T17:13:46	no	MANIFOLD
mani-wMuUxGdT872pJEv3OKaE	Will Chelsea beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Mar 11, 2024? - Premier League	⚽ Chelsea vs Newcastle 📅 Date: Monday, March 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Chelsea has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Newcastle has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google	2024-03-06T16:01:47	2024-03-11T16:00:00	2024-03-11T18:11:56	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-gCd8NDYHU90Pj23mx9JT	Will Volodymyr Zelensky be killed in 2024?	There were recent reports of a Russian attack that struck very close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he was hosting the Greek Prime Minister. It’s possible that Zelenskyy will be killed during the war, either as a result of a Russian attack, by an accident of war, or even by rogue forces. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be killed this year? Clarifications: 1) A clearly natural death will not count and will resolve the market as N/A. 2) Zelenskyy is relatively young, so if he dies this year, any reasonable doubt about the cause of death will resolve the market Yes. 3) Market will resolve No if Zelenskyy is alive by the end of 2024.	2024-03-06T15:29:11	2024-12-31T21:59:00	2025-01-31T23:34:22	no	MANIFOLD
mani-QyQvzQaJ5WIOELX0gYVP	Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025?	Resolves YES if any of Deep Mind, Anthropic, or Open AI publicly releases an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness, sentience, etc. by EOD on December 31. Using the word "consciousness" is not required, provided a similar term is used and the commitment is intended to address concerns about models' internal states or subjective welfare. In order to qualify, the release must include a commitment to take some action X if a triggering event Y occurs, but it is acceptable if the commitments are vague/subjective/not sufficiently specific enough to allow a reasonable person to determine whether they have been adhered to yet. (This is in recognition of the fact that labs may want to iterate publicly on these commitments.) A statement of the form "We commit to developing a set of evaluations of models' subjective well-being prior to the time we release a BSL-3 system" would likewise qualify. General position statements that do not purport to commit a lab to any action (e.g. "We believe machine consciousness is an important issue and encourage work in this domain") would not qualify.	2024-03-06T14:57:29	2024-12-31T23:59:00	2025-01-16T08:53:13	no	MANIFOLD
mani-GGJ72B1XwqqxxBDgaVzl	Will a candidate not named Donald Trump or Joe Biden participate in a presidential debate in 2024?	In order for a debate to count towards this question at least one candidate in the debate must represent one of the two major parties. IE A debate between RFK Jr and Biden would resolve YES but a debate between RFK Jr and Cornell West would not count. EDIT: Vice presidential debates also wont count towards this question	2024-03-06T14:52:36	2024-09-11T12:34:15	2024-09-11T12:34:15	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-psKfTdWtZgjbymloDkvV	[short fuse] Will California voters pass Prop 1 in the March 5, 2024 election?	Based on NYT and state website results. Currently Yes and No are neck and neck. Will it pass?	2024-03-06T13:19:29	2024-03-20T19:49:00	2024-03-20T19:49:00	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-Y8bmtr1MHvaKYRsHg3db	Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a debate before the end of April?	[image]Trump says he wants debates anytime, anyplace. What if Joe says "sure, how about next week?"	2024-03-06T12:25:44	2024-04-30T23:59:00	2024-05-01T03:56:05	no	MANIFOLD
mani-xaNCakgpdrgEEJCgHFBl	Will Sweden join NATO by March 7th 2024 at 12:34 PM Eastern Time?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-06T11:02:36	2024-03-07T09:17:30	2024-03-07T09:17:30	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-GYAAQ6CmZVglamDaefKt	Will every letter in the alphabet be used at least twice in the State of the union address?	This will resolve based on the transcript published by the NYT after the state of the union. Here is the 2023 transcript https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/biden-state-of-the-union-transcript.html this would have resolved yes in 2023	2024-03-06T09:34:36	2024-03-07T20:59:00	2024-03-08T03:49:18	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-KHRYDxwTUuiiAg5seQdv	👻 Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross more than "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" during its opening weekend? (>$44M)	Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/ will be used to resolve this market. The "Domestic Opening" listed for "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" (2021) is $44,008,406. Thus, this market resolves to YES if "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" grosses more than $44,008,406 during its domestic opening weekend (according to BoxOfficeMojo). Otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" is the 3-day total (plus previews) for North America. But that's my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I'll use whatever they post.	2024-03-06T08:32:19	2024-03-26T23:05:27	2024-03-26T23:05:27	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-gvyVQOZm9TqrxvmEIZid	Will Joe Biden say the word “Cricket” (as it relates to the sport) in public any time in 2024?	The T20 cricket World Cup takes place in the Caribbean and the US this year. Only counts if there is an audio/video clip accessible on the internet.	2024-03-06T07:56:30	2024-12-31T05:59:00	2025-01-20T12:46:00	no	MANIFOLD
mani-pebCX5ykcyUMUo0kdj2z	Will Kamala Harris refuse to certify the results of the 2024 election?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-06T01:59:59	2025-01-06T11:41:56	2025-01-06T11:41:56	no	MANIFOLD
mani-xCkxZU5QiJ3cwpcfNo9N	Will Elon Musk loan or donate to Trump any money by EOY 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T23:11:22	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-27T14:11:03	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-iYZhu7fr9rvYSUWj3HrS	Will Twitter AND Google both get new CEOs in the year 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T21:11:52	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-04T09:34:15	no	MANIFOLD
mani-SUe6veYYBzcETvSpf5h4	Will Oppenheimer win best picture AND Bitcoin reach $70K AND Nintendo announce a new console by EOY 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T20:53:28	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-04T11:16:03	no	MANIFOLD
mani-CQfdeDi64L4yB8KgyZVh	Will Tesla reach $200 on or before May 1, 2024	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T19:37:38	2024-05-01T20:59:00	2024-05-02T06:47:07	no	MANIFOLD
mani-y0Xmv6AsGI3oxlM3cKQb	Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 90% or more of the vote?	This is a variation of cshunter's question but with the threshold set to 90%. Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows: 2018: 77.53% 2012: 64.35% 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote) 2004: 71.91% 2000: 53.44% Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 90% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page? In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used. Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202)(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-54159d9de26d)	2024-03-05T18:40:28	2024-03-18T06:51:20	2024-03-18T06:51:20	no	MANIFOLD
mani-r13PhDYlNzOe5amy8n0Q	Will we find out more about Blackbeard’s lineage/bloodline by EOY 2024?	It’s clear Blackbeard has a special lineage/bloodline, as confirmed by Saturn in chapter 1107. Resolves as “YES” if we find any details about what makes Blackbeard so special (his bloodline) by 00:00:00 January 1st, 2025. Resolves as “NO” otherwise. I don’t answer my own questions.	2024-03-05T17:53:34	2025-01-01T23:59:00	2025-01-19T08:40:06	no	MANIFOLD
mani-x2b7l2IPX38JbTIIT0ui	Will Aston Villa beat Tottenham during regular time on Sun, Mar 10, 2024? - Premier League	⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham 📅 Date: Sunday, March 10, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Aston Villa has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Tottenham has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google	2024-03-05T16:01:42	2024-03-10T09:00:00	2024-03-10T15:38:27	no	MANIFOLD
mani-RDVM1gzoCcyg7JVglfSn	Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024?	CNN's exit poll in 2020 found Biden+75, Fox found Biden +83. Resolves Yes if the mean between the two sources is <D+79	2024-03-05T15:29:31	2024-11-11T01:15:45	2024-11-11T01:15:45	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-Ux0hSv37tCFYzRCEisb0	Will Joe Biden resign the presidency at any point during this term or potential future term?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T13:40:23	2025-01-21T20:59:00	2025-01-31T23:31:41	no	MANIFOLD
mani-y7Wt35J6Twz61vlIus0x	Will chapter 1111 of One Piece have at least 3 two-page spreads?	Chapter 1109 had 3 of them (8-9, 10-11,and 13-15). What about 1111? I'll use the way TCB scans publishes pages as a metric for what constitutes a two-page spread (other groups may upload spreads as 2 separate pictures). It does not need to be a single panel that fills both pages. Resolves whenever I read the chapter (around 21st/22nd of March if TCB publishes as usual).	2024-03-05T13:15:24	2024-03-22T13:40:55	2024-03-22T13:40:55	no	MANIFOLD
mani-MBwi6hrG93s6FG1TZj8P	At EOY 2024, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok?	US politicians are once again making moves to ban or force divestment on TikTok in. Will it succeed this time, and if so when? Some other questions ask if TikTok will "be banned" or "forced to change ownership", which describes an earlier part of the process or seems vague. This question concerns the actual ownership, at the time of resolution. Edit: As clarified in the comments, if the app is shut down/inactive/banned in the US/... but still owned by TikTok, and the company hasn't A) shut down or B) divested the app. In such cases, this question resolves YES. Question might resolve YES early in case there's a fully finished transaction to another entity. I will not trade in this market, in case resolution gets tricky. See sister question with same criteria for EOY 2025: (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/at-eoy-2024-will-bytedance-control-3573ccb36df3)	2024-03-05T11:28:10	2024-12-31T23:59:00	2025-01-02T02:30:10	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-7eSjNPYWG2kA76qhjSWV	Will Sweden join NATO before the end of St Patrick's Day?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T10:47:08	2024-03-07T09:56:06	2024-03-07T09:56:06	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-1PUOjhx6ClT1z2ex2IRS	Will Destiny visit Israel in 2024?	[tweet]	2024-03-05T09:50:22	2024-06-01T06:44:16	2024-06-01T06:44:16	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-yNu9YnOnlJwKAQ3nJjWy	Will Sweden join NATO before the end of March 8th?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T09:16:56	2024-03-07T09:09:48	2024-03-07T09:09:48	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-pDbaLkuaYN1RlraheHmc	At the end of 2024 will Bitcoin be closer to $100K than $50K?	Bitcoin price as reported by Google	2024-03-05T08:17:22	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-01T19:37:34	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-k1IrWCgQfhnsZcn3AOiq	NBA Finals - Will the Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets be the two teams that play in the NBA Finals in June 2024?	NBA Finals begin on June 6, 2024. I may bet on this question.	2024-03-05T06:42:54	2024-05-19T19:32:43	2024-05-19T19:32:43	no	MANIFOLD
mani-lv6QSHGUQCWG2wsLUgsb	Will five quarterbacks be drafted in the top twenty picks at the 2024 NFL Draft?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-05T00:59:23	2024-04-25T22:05:21	2024-04-25T22:05:21	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-TXJwsCKs0ue1sjWYsEt2	Will Ferrari win 2 races before Max Verstappen wins 8?	Only 2024 feature (full length) races count. Any Ferrari driver counts. Goes by official race results after all penalties, if any, are applied. Resolves as soon as one of the two events occurs. Resolves n/a if neither event happens this season. 7 races completed: Ferrari: 1 Max: 5	2024-03-04T23:10:58	2024-05-26T10:15:27	2024-05-26T10:15:27	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-3DXAyR1kNHyokAdy3JqC	How will Bitcoin preform in 2024?	There are 101 possible resolution outcomes to this market. If this doesn't resolve yes or no, it will resolve to a % at the end of the year based on what BTC price closes at on the last day. Resolves to Investing Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a high of 100,000 Resolves No if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a low of 999 Otherwise this market resolves to a % based on the price of bitcoin at the end of the year. Example Resolutions: 99% = 99,000 87% = 87,000 50% = 50,000 36% = 36,000 1% = 1,000 MIN(1, ROUNDDOWN(price/100000, 2)) - Inspired by MRN	2024-03-04T21:15:40	2024-12-04T18:57:59	2024-12-04T18:57:59	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-35XWFz2weLk7gIsSld51	Will Bitcoin trade above $70,000 in march?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T21:12:37	2024-03-08T17:27:26	2024-03-08T17:27:26	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-TNF9DS4mgiGVkky9ssgi	Will the Workers Party of Britain win any seats at the next UK General Election?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T19:53:01	2024-07-06T16:44:29	2024-07-06T16:44:29	no	MANIFOLD
mani-3let40Fv0UvJgXfcKv5n	Will there be a perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball in 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T19:39:06	2024-10-30T21:03:16	2024-10-30T21:03:16	no	MANIFOLD
mani-hmbcAr9oDo5Xr9XT6xQH	Will Bitcoin hit $70K in March 2024?	https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.	2024-03-04T19:04:04	2024-03-10T11:42:33	2024-03-10T11:42:33	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-GkGVVhKxHk6F8r9bak9Q	Will Bitcoin hit $72K in March 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T19:03:47	2024-03-11T12:16:43	2024-03-11T12:16:43	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-U0yX28gWmK1D1Z25veX5	Will Bitcoin hit $75K in March 2024?	https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.	2024-03-04T19:02:58	2024-03-30T23:59:00	2024-04-01T00:02:13	no	MANIFOLD
mani-aDSi3wOU2nmeaf7XheHB	Will Dune 2 gross over $1 billion at the worldwide box office?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T18:43:07	2024-04-11T19:03:29	2024-04-11T19:03:29	no	MANIFOLD
mani-9EGl1XbCr91UfYv8SCid	Will the Russian Ukraine war ends before 2025?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T17:21:16	2024-12-31T20:59:00	2025-01-01T14:30:05	no	MANIFOLD
mani-0S6CtH9x9oCwa0JZFz3H	Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day that Reddit IPOs?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T16:44:01	2024-03-21T20:31:03	2024-03-21T20:31:03	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-Ke8rX1Pr1ieVmYzQoVp1	Will ~all Claude premium users have access to 1m token context window by June 1st?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T16:03:24	2024-06-02T20:59:00	2024-06-10T08:18:25	no	MANIFOLD
mani-8XAupe2g3lO8P2Cok3Tx	Will Crystal Palace beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 9, 2024? - Premier League	⚽ Crystal Palace vs Luton 📅 Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Crystal Palace has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Luton has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google	2024-03-04T16:01:47	2024-03-09T10:00:00	2024-03-09T10:58:59	no	MANIFOLD
mani-YuJ7mNmjeWAeHckQ9Mcw	Will Amazon's ‘Fallout’ (2024) have an audience score above 60% on Rotten Tomatoes on April 26th?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T15:33:35	2024-04-26T13:45:22	2024-04-26T13:45:22	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-hgVqlWvPYt0br7H9Q5mF	Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (yet again!)	Last price: 2024-Mar-28 $171.48 (will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close) Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-01) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $190 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $170 Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)	2024-03-04T14:57:39	2024-04-02T13:10:32	2024-04-02T13:10:32	no	MANIFOLD
mani-I2HJPBeSvVq5pC1UjMs1	Will Bitcoin hit $77,777 before $55,555?	Start courting from market creation Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $77,777 first Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $55,555 first Market close date will be extended as needed.	2024-03-04T13:19:59	2024-07-04T21:30:34	2024-07-04T21:30:34	no	MANIFOLD
mani-zR3bDPjkRVf2VfdB1YmC	Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4-1106-preview on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?	Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks GPT-4-1106-preview at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point. https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard For a version that includes any GPT-4 model released during that time, see here: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-claude-3-outrank-gpt4-on-the-l	2024-03-04T12:42:49	2024-03-21T08:19:00	2024-03-21T09:07:26	no	MANIFOLD
mani-fIMF2qc97iBt7X3OSgHk	Will GPT-4's successor be released this week?	Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it.	2024-03-04T10:18:40	2024-03-11T04:01:00	2024-03-11T04:36:23	no	MANIFOLD
mani-i4EeRJk3ay8bOyEla489	Will Bitcoin price surpass $99,999 before 9/9?	Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD	2024-03-04T08:28:07	2024-09-09T10:01:02	2024-09-09T10:01:02	no	MANIFOLD
mani-08LJfhwpzlnXJu92WGmY	Will bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of March?	The price of BTC is over $66666 on the day this market was made, will it still be above $66666 at the end of March? Using price from Google	2024-03-04T08:20:59	2024-03-31T20:59:00	2024-03-31T21:11:17	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-PhL157P3YYVDEOmIjAQb	Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of 6/6?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-04T08:20:16	2024-06-06T21:11:18	2024-06-06T21:11:23	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-hrUoioShIbKJMRAhu05b	Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before 7/7?	Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD	2024-03-04T08:19:41	2024-07-07T07:06:32	2024-07-07T07:06:32	no	MANIFOLD
mani-23lPxTXHdNkHUaomqzgY	Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?	Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks the best-performing GPT-4 model at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point. (GPT-4.5 would not count as a GPT-4 model.) https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard EDIT: Clarification, due to the new way ranks are displayed on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo Leaderboard: If Claude 3 and GPT-4 both have rank 1, but the Arena Elo of the former is greater than the one of the latter, this resolves YES. I believe this is most in line with how it was meant when this market was first created.	2024-03-04T07:38:22	2024-03-21T08:19:00	2024-03-21T09:27:11	no	MANIFOLD
mani-wxPEH8T7t7jUlIeJ6VPJ	Will Cardano Reach a Dollar Before the End of March?	will Cardano reach 1 dollar in https://coinmarketcap.com/pt-br/currencies/cardano/ at any point in time before the end of march. ______________price in 03/04/2024_________________ [image]	2024-03-04T07:23:21	2024-03-31T19:59:00	2024-04-01T02:22:06	no	MANIFOLD
mani-Akop4FYN2OCFpPCKbOXC	Will any Claude 3 variant reach top 3 rank on LMSYS leaderboard by 15 March 2024?	https://chat.lmsys.org/	2024-03-04T07:12:54	2024-03-07T10:12:01	2024-03-07T10:12:01	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-iRn5khcEyIDKYCOs8EmC	Will Claude 3 turn out to be better than or equal to GPT-4 in perceived performance?	I will try it myself and decide by the end of the month. Resolves YES if any of the Claude 3 variants perform better than or equal to the best GPT-4.	2024-03-04T07:05:53	2024-05-24T11:20:13	2024-05-24T11:20:13	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-sQRBunV5k2jkPDk15AWK	Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before the end of 2024?	Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD	2024-03-04T06:42:50	2024-11-11T11:18:15	2024-11-11T11:18:15	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-3oL3vMUAFkLNPMOOlXlI	Will ETH increase MoM in Mar, 2024?	Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.	2024-03-04T06:40:01	2024-03-31T20:59:00	2024-04-01T04:33:56	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-iuCtquyJ6P0BVqHgadbA	Will Bitcoin reach 69420 by March 15th?	March 15th is defined as end of day UTC Bitcoin price is defined as a printed trade at 69420 spot price on Binance	2024-03-04T06:24:03	2024-03-08T10:13:39	2024-03-08T10:13:39	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-MiYKcO3SMlpUqgbRh9TK	Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024?	It doesn't have to be exactly that, but something similar to it. Yes, that's subjective, but I think any more objective criteria will be goodhearted in the fight between twitter and the bots. Resolves NO if people still see that regularly, YES if it's much less common than it is now.	2024-03-04T03:55:48	2024-12-31T23:59:00	2025-01-08T23:12:33	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-298Vyn12n5aba4pYtr5U	Will Destiny attend Manifest 2024?	[image]	2024-03-04T02:27:08	2024-06-10T12:58:54	2024-06-10T12:58:54	no	MANIFOLD
mani-i7GoraRmufAGZAlNYAXE	Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of 2024?	Going by Google for BTC price	2024-03-04T00:55:01	2024-11-07T10:43:57	2024-11-07T10:43:57	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-WWSSTwWj9LXmTN02XySe	Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of Autism Awareness Day? (April 2)	Going by Google for BTC price	2024-03-04T00:54:07	2024-04-02T20:59:00	2024-04-02T21:08:13	no	MANIFOLD
mani-db35JXR76He4NhzSmODi	Will Sweden join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $75K?	Going by Google for Bitcoin price	2024-03-04T00:47:17	2024-03-07T09:56:12	2024-03-07T09:56:12	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-N4aiwKT8lHZ8Pe58UAIO	Will Bitcoin reach $75K before the end of May Day? (May 1)	Using Google for the price.	2024-03-04T00:45:17	2024-05-01T20:59:00	2024-05-01T21:17:46	no	MANIFOLD
mani-xwv3CrxjVBbkPXaS70Jv	Will Apple release a new iPad by May 2024?	Resolves YES if a new Apple iPad model is available for US consumers to purchase any time before May 1, 2024. Updates to existing model lines (iPad pro, air, mini, etc.) all count. Edge cases: If a new model is available for pre-order before April 1, resolves YES. If a new model is announced, but not available for purchase or pre-order, resolves NO.	2024-03-03T23:01:20	2024-04-30T23:59:00	2024-05-01T08:12:50	no	MANIFOLD
mani-aF6FeynTYYiAS0WC8Eyq	Will the EU get a Defense Commissioner following the election?	Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen said it would be “reasonable” to create the post, should she secure a second term at the helm of the EU institution after June’s European elections. (source) Resolves YES if the next commission after the election in June has a dedicated defense commissioner post. It may be a different literal title as long as it can be traced to the current proposal. Resolves NO if no such role is established. Close date might be extended.	2024-03-03T22:44:04	2024-12-12T14:59:00	2024-12-28T16:25:03	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-nRoK5upuuqi4MJ8s4OkP	Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2024?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-03T21:40:44	2024-10-31T13:08:46	2024-10-31T13:08:46	no	MANIFOLD
mani-XDEBcuPbYpXPoIanRyei	Israel:Hamas ceasefire in March? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸	At any point in the month of March will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas? Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES: Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs Israel and Hamas end their war Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of March 31st, 2024.	2024-03-03T16:41:18	2024-03-31T23:59:00	2024-04-01T06:30:10	no	MANIFOLD
mani-rUe19GhdbKcdlqoNI4RP	Will the 2024 FIDE Candidates chess tournament be held in Toronto, Canada?	Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (https://candidates2024.fide.com/) is held in Toronto, otherwise NO.	2024-03-03T14:52:11	2024-04-03T20:31:16	2024-04-03T20:31:16	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-02L1OjjSkTFAwqIzOtQC	Will The Verge launch an ActivityPub integration before May 1?	ActivityPub is the protocol that the Fediverse, which includes Mastodon, is built on. Nilay Patel, The Verge's EIC, has been talking about how the plan for The Verge is to federate more of their site for a while (you can hear him lay it out here), but so far none of that has happened publicly. Will resolve YES if The Verge federates any part of the site through ActivityPub before May 1, 2024. The launch must come with a commitment to a semi-permanent feature. Launching a feature "in beta" is fine if it's a continual integration of any aspect of the site, but federating a few quickposts or a single liveblog as a test would not be enough to resolve YES. Just making an official account on Mastodon or another federated social media network also doesn't count; the integration needs to be come through the website. This is my first question post, so please feel free to question or critique my resolution criteria.	2024-03-03T14:51:54	2024-04-30T23:59:00	2024-05-01T00:31:53	no	MANIFOLD
mani-Va5dSloFJHIX9Q2MjcOY	Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) gross >$40M on its opening weekend?	This market will resolve to YES if "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) grosses more than $40,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/ will be used to resolve this market. Details: I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Kung Fu Panda 3 would have been $41,282,042. For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.	2024-03-03T13:18:14	2024-03-11T16:26:59	2024-03-11T16:26:59	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-5zat9XTUJ4N39zJF0vFB	Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?	If you add up the chances these candidates have in current markets, it seems more likely than not that one of these four people will be Trump's choice for VP. But how likely exactly? It's possible these candidates' odds have been individually distorted due to the complex nature of multiple choice markets with many options, where people bet on many long-shot candidates and few people are willing to buy those long-shots down below interest rates. A binary market grouping these candidates together might be informative. This market will be subsidized to incentivize accuracy. This market resolves after Trump formally announces his running mate, or resolves N/A if he does not(such as if he stops running for president). It resolves YES if he chooses one of these four people, or NO if he chooses someone else.	2024-03-03T10:49:20	2024-07-15T12:21:51	2024-07-15T12:21:51	no	MANIFOLD
mani-had84NRv6wyl96ayWLvg	Will Trump announce his Vice President running mate before the end of Juneteenth?	{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}	2024-03-03T10:05:04	2024-06-19T18:03:49	2024-06-19T18:03:49	no	MANIFOLD
mani-Ujp52Bu5bgxA4d3WkRtC	Will Mike Pence endorse or says he intends to vote for Trump?	Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral. This market is intent to have a better title but identical resolution criteria of this one: (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-mike-pence-endorse-trump)	2024-03-02T16:43:44	2024-11-06T01:49:08	2024-11-06T01:49:08	no	MANIFOLD
mani-GJj8oqipDWtwEpkjVCvY	Will the next NYT / Siena poll be more favorable for Biden than the March 2nd one?	ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html\n\nThe latest NYT / Siena poll was released today, and shows Trump leading Biden by 5%. This is substantially worse for Biden than their most recent poll last year. Will things shift in Biden's favor by the time next poll is released in a few months? \n\nResolves based on Trump's vote share minus Biden's vote share being less in the next poll than this one. Resolves NO if the polls show the same result. Resolves N/A if the two results are not directly comparable (e.g. RV versus LV, or the next poll includes third-party candidates)."	2024-03-02T11:39:06	2024-04-13T10:45:19	2024-04-13T10:45:19	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-rlKwKh2HtATRRymu5Wf9	Will Trump beat Biden again in the next New York Times/Sienna national poll?	The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally. Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022. If Trump beats Biden in the next released national Times/Sienna poll, this market resolves YES. If Biden is tied with or ahead of Trump, this market resolves NO. See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in You can find more questions like this in the Polling Dashboard.	2024-03-02T10:53:47	2024-04-13T07:59:10	2024-04-13T07:59:10	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-1wOtpdjYH3MWaMyIZ0nL	Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?	The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally. Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022. If Trump beats Biden in every national Times/Sienna poll from March until election day, this market resolves yes. If Biden is ever tied or ahead of Trump, this market resolves No. See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in-6a298ba85678 You can find more questions like this in the Polling Dashboard.	2024-03-02T10:51:51	2024-11-03T17:25:21	2024-11-03T17:25:21	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-JNXecCr0xf1lvGJwiK19	Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of Trump's Taco Bowl Tweet?	[image]	2024-03-02T10:01:32	2024-03-06T10:24:21	2024-03-06T10:24:21	yes	MANIFOLD
mani-2alweinFj3cINlAHey5G	Will Q* be legally considered AGI?	ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/\n\n[image]For a judicial determination that Q* and/or other OpenAI next generation large language models in development constitute(s) Artificial General Intelligence\n\nResolves YES if judgment C is granted, or any other court ruling causing Q* or other LLMs distinct from GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.\n\nResolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing Q* or non-GPT-4 LLM to be legally considered AGI is presented.\n\nResolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.\n\nResolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.\n\nTraders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.\n\nDefault close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.\n\nSee also: @/MiraBot/will-gpt4-be-legally-considered-agi \n\n@/MiraBot/will-elon-musks-qgpt4-are-agi-lawsu "	2024-03-02T09:10:50	2024-12-31T23:59:00	2025-03-01T08:14:36	no	MANIFOLD
mani-Nr0uxH7O7OkGO2xH9Wtr	Will Logan Sargeant last the full 2024 Formula 1 season?	Resolves NO if a replacement driver for Sargeant is announced for any races this season, due to Sargeant's performance and not e.g. injury, or penalty points accumulation. UNLESS the replacement driver is Alex Albon because Williams has only one car; that doesn’t count.	2024-03-02T08:27:55	2024-08-27T10:29:02	2024-08-27T10:29:02	no	MANIFOLD
mani-9ujeJESzfgiTDz0NVyI1	Will the Houthis sink a second ship before 2025?	It's been confirmed the Houthis sank their first ship in the Red Sea, the Rubymar. This market resolves YES if they manage to sink another one. Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its own, or is not salvageable so it is purposely sank by a third party. Small ships are excluded, the ship must be over 100 feet long.	2024-03-02T07:32:30	2024-06-19T15:22:37	2024-06-19T15:22:37	yes	MANIFOLD

mani-AtOiii0JrVUwmrkdXchH

Will Barcelona beat Napoli during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺

⚽ Barcelona vs Napoli 📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Barcelona has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Napoli has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google

2024-03-07T16:01:55

2024-03-12T16:00:00

2024-03-12T16:40:38

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-OXPaNHSz4mBkE2CE7md7

Will Arsenal beat FC Porto during regular time on Tue, Mar 12, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺

⚽ Arsenal vs FC Porto 📅 Date: Tuesday, March 12, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Arsenal has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - FC Porto has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google

2024-03-07T16:01:51

2024-03-12T16:00:00

2024-03-12T16:41:54

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-HKI19BE4jXQ1OltBnovD

[Polymarket] Will Congress pass bill banning Tiktok by April 30?

This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/will-congress-pass-bill-banning-tiktok-by-april-30?tid=1709852278365). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market. The description of the original market: "This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate by April 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used."

2024-03-07T15:01:54

2024-04-27T22:56:14

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-TkeEpaeXzgyQU0ANSAnm

Will the Ethereum (ETH) price reach $5,800 before the end of 2024?

$5800 is 20% above the Ethereum ATH and roughly equivalent to $100k BTC Will it happen during this cycle?

2024-03-07T12:27:31

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-01T07:30:54

no

MANIFOLD

mani-bvZxYVzzRqrcVDwkfW6Z

Will Jimmy Carter be alive on May 1

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-07T10:49:16

2024-05-01T20:59:00

2024-05-02T04:24:49

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-MTYQbr2d2gxwSQKoj3FF

Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $180 before $160? (again)

Last price: 2024-May-02 $173.03 (after hours $183.46 due to reported earnings) (will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close) Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-07) during which the price stays above $180 (YES) or below $160 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $180 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $160 Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $170 then quoted prices next day would be $85 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)

2024-03-07T10:08:55

2024-05-03T13:20:46

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-BcJaDLRR8tgiwx39ocuj

Will another USA president or former president die before Jimmy Carter does?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-07T09:03:10

2024-12-29T18:57:23

no

MANIFOLD

mani-mQnfyRLgaqbv3invrnwy

Will the Mike Tyson vs Jake Paul boxing match go ahead on 20th July?

Promoters have announced that 80s/90s heavyweight world champion and convicted rapist Mike Tyson will take on professional YouTuber Jake Paul in a boxing match on 20th July. https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2024/mar/07/mike-tyson-jake-paul-boxing-fight-netflix-date-cowboys Will this fight actually go ahead? If the fight is cancelled or delayed or if one or both contenders fail to show up, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight goes ahead and both contenders are present for the starting bell, this market will resolve to YES.

2024-03-07T08:54:39

2024-06-01T06:48:27

no

MANIFOLD

mani-JLUFus0A6ylH2vEPOOUH

Will ByteDance release an open model more powerful than Gemini before July?

Previously: @/AlyssaVance/will-bytedance-soon-release-an-open On December 6th, 2023, the day Google's Gemini was announced, Quanquan Gu (Director at ByteDance Research) said: "Uncertain about GPT-5, but a super-strong model (more powerful than Gemini) is expected to arrive anytime now." "Open source?" "Open model weights." https://twitter.com/QuanquanGu/status/1732484036160012798 Resolves YES if this happens unambiguously before July. Comparison will be between the strongest publicly available version of any new Bytedance model with open weights and the strongest publicly available version of Gemini Ultra at the time of that Bytedance model's release. If there is no such ByteDance model, this resolves NO by default. I will not trade in this market, to keep myself unbiased. Let me know if you have any suggestions for any updates to the specific resolution criteria within the spirit of the market.

2024-03-07T08:02:45

2024-07-01T23:59:00

2024-07-12T21:25:18

no

MANIFOLD

mani-kiwIeI0Gv1e74c88NoX2

Will "Dune: Part Two" gross >$40 million (domestic) during its 2nd weekend (March 8-10)? (a ~51% drop)

Source: BoxOfficeMojo—specifically the "Domestic" and "Weekend" tabs. For example, "Dune: Part Two" released on March 1st, and grossed $82,505,391 during its first (i.e. opening) weekend (March 1st - 3rd). Source: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2024W09/?ref_=bo_wey_table_8. This is the equivalent number I will use (the "Gross" column), but instead for the weekend of March 8th - 10th (its second at the box office). If the gross listed by BoxOfficeMojo is >$40,000,000, this market resolves YES. I will use the weekend gross posted by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined (again note this is domestic). For context, as "Dune: Part Two" grossed $82.5M on its opening weekend, this would represent an approximately ~48% drop. In their respective second weekend, the original "Dune" (2021) dropped ~61%, while "Oppenheimer" (2023) dropped ~43%.

2024-03-07T07:37:39

2024-03-11T16:29:48

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-0vR0zJNIMMoYMtyQwZ3T

Will there be a General Election in the UK this year?

Resolves YES if GE if called for this year. Resolves NO if GE is not called for this year - i.e if it takes place in 2025 this market resolves no.

2024-03-07T05:02:18

2024-05-22T11:58:35

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-Ff78rip86Y2c9FscBZxk

Will Elon Musk announce that he will be a father again before the Ides of March?

He has to announce it himself e.g. on his social media account, official spokesperson of him is okay as well. Article in the tabloid press claiming he will be a father again isn't sufficient.

2024-03-07T03:00:25

2024-03-15T15:59:00

2024-03-15T16:22:25

no

MANIFOLD

mani-W7rJJJjr5ivhSqSA7DYa

Irish referendum 2024 - Will voters vote yes to the 40th Amendment (Care)?

On Friday 8th March, Irish voters are being asked to vote on the proposed 39th and 40th amendments to the Irish constitution. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/March_2024_Irish_constitutional_referendums These amendments are widely considered to be progressive rather than conservative. The bills setting up this referendum have been passed by the Dail and Seanad (the equivalent to the lower and upper houses) and the Taoiseach supports them meaning that the referendum is the final step in passing the amendments other than some formalities. The 40th amendment modifies section 41 of the constitution. It would remove this section: In particular, the State recognises that by her life within the home, woman gives to the State a support without which the common good cannot be achieved. The State shall, therefore, endeavour to ensure that mothers shall not be obliged by economic necessity to engage in labour to the neglect of their duties in the home. And add in the following: The State recognises that the provision of care, by members of a family to one another by reason of the bonds that exist among them, gives to Society a support without which the common good cannot be achieved, and shall strive to support such provision. Once the results of the referendum has been returned, this market will resolve to YES if a simple majority of voters vote yes to the 40th amendment.

2024-03-07T01:40:05

2024-03-10T00:31:17

no

MANIFOLD

mani-EsRkUKTCiIcwnnrr7Uqs

Will Jimmy Carter make it through April Fools' Day?

2024-03-06T21:20:48

2024-04-01T20:57:25

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-OHuSAw44zkWm8kHeAkjQ

Will Jimmy Carter survive the Day of the Dead?

2024-03-06T21:18:59

2024-11-02T21:59:00

2024-11-06T00:45:58

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-uRoMYGTTyTpUVH0nNw1i

Will Jimmy Carter be alive for Cinco de Mayo?

2024-03-06T21:15:54

2024-05-04T21:59:00

2024-05-05T20:19:46

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-WP0BxtWbqn6ymoIBaZrG

Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of April 2024?

The package must have >$1 billion in new aid to Ukraine, and the House and Senate must pass the same version of the bill by April 30th to resolve YES. Otherwise, resolves NO. See also: @/Domer/will-the-united-states-congress-pas @/Leminspector/will-congress-pass-a-new-ukraine-ai @/MichaelSchmatz/will-congress-pass-a-new-ukraine-ai-6c662aab046c

2024-03-06T18:35:58

2024-04-23T18:47:31

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-CfJPJFRIKjg2Oesiaymi

Will SpaceX’s 3rd Starship test flight have a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“ (of either stage)?

Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test breaks up in flight, known as a "rapid unscheduled/unplanned disassembly (RUD)". RUD of just the lower or upper stage or both would count. Examples of things that don't count: Hitting the ground intact and being destroyed on contact with the surface, or a single engine having a fire. We'll use a common sense definition here. The sources for resolution will be SpaceX, media, prominent space youtubers, etc. In case it isn't clear then I'll run a poll. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline, the question resolves when the flight occurs.

2024-03-06T17:44:39

2024-03-14T07:45:48

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-R8o6SwuPbGwk4uqmtjGh

Will the 3rd Starship test reach at least 200km altitude? (plan is 235km)

Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship integrated flight test reaches an altitude of at least 200km. Otherwise NO. For context: "The most recent FCC filling shows that SpaceX intends to launch IFT-3 into a 235km apogee" according to https://starship-spacex.fandom.com/wiki/Starship_Flight_Test_3. However, even if the planned trajectory changes, the question is still about whether it reaches 200km. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.

2024-03-06T17:30:56

2024-03-14T06:40:30

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-ZrrjDW4H0Wqe6bydsM2m

Will the 3rd Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?

Resolves YES if the next (3rd) Starship space flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System on either the upper or lower stage or both. Otherwise NO. This question is about the next (3rd) Starship mission with a planned trajectory that reaches space (100km altitude) - any low altitude test does not count for example. The close date is not a deadline and will be extended as necessary until the test occurs.

2024-03-06T17:26:23

2024-03-22T17:13:46

no

MANIFOLD

mani-wMuUxGdT872pJEv3OKaE

Will Chelsea beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Mar 11, 2024? - Premier League

⚽ Chelsea vs Newcastle 📅 Date: Monday, March 11, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Chelsea has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Newcastle has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google

2024-03-06T16:01:47

2024-03-11T16:00:00

2024-03-11T18:11:56

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-gCd8NDYHU90Pj23mx9JT

Will Volodymyr Zelensky be killed in 2024?

There were recent reports of a Russian attack that struck very close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy when he was hosting the Greek Prime Minister. It’s possible that Zelenskyy will be killed during the war, either as a result of a Russian attack, by an accident of war, or even by rogue forces. Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be killed this year? Clarifications: 1) A clearly natural death will not count and will resolve the market as N/A. 2) Zelenskyy is relatively young, so if he dies this year, any reasonable doubt about the cause of death will resolve the market Yes. 3) Market will resolve No if Zelenskyy is alive by the end of 2024.

2024-03-06T15:29:11

2024-12-31T21:59:00

2025-01-31T23:34:22

no

MANIFOLD

mani-QyQvzQaJ5WIOELX0gYVP

Will any of the Top 3 labs release an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness prior to January 1, 2025?

Resolves YES if any of Deep Mind, Anthropic, or Open AI publicly releases an initial commitment regarding AI consciousness, sentience, etc. by EOD on December 31. Using the word "consciousness" is not required, provided a similar term is used and the commitment is intended to address concerns about models' internal states or subjective welfare. In order to qualify, the release must include a commitment to take some action X if a triggering event Y occurs, but it is acceptable if the commitments are vague/subjective/not sufficiently specific enough to allow a reasonable person to determine whether they have been adhered to yet. (This is in recognition of the fact that labs may want to iterate publicly on these commitments.) A statement of the form "We commit to developing a set of evaluations of models' subjective well-being prior to the time we release a BSL-3 system" would likewise qualify. General position statements that do not purport to commit a lab to any action (e.g. "We believe machine consciousness is an important issue and encourage work in this domain") would not qualify.

2024-03-06T14:57:29

2024-12-31T23:59:00

2025-01-16T08:53:13

no

MANIFOLD

mani-GGJ72B1XwqqxxBDgaVzl

Will a candidate not named Donald Trump or Joe Biden participate in a presidential debate in 2024?

In order for a debate to count towards this question at least one candidate in the debate must represent one of the two major parties. IE A debate between RFK Jr and Biden would resolve YES but a debate between RFK Jr and Cornell West would not count. EDIT: Vice presidential debates also wont count towards this question

2024-03-06T14:52:36

2024-09-11T12:34:15

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-psKfTdWtZgjbymloDkvV

[short fuse] Will California voters pass Prop 1 in the March 5, 2024 election?

Based on NYT and state website results. Currently Yes and No are neck and neck. Will it pass?

2024-03-06T13:19:29

2024-03-20T19:49:00

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-Y8bmtr1MHvaKYRsHg3db

Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump have a debate before the end of April?

[image]Trump says he wants debates anytime, anyplace. What if Joe says "sure, how about next week?"

2024-03-06T12:25:44

2024-04-30T23:59:00

2024-05-01T03:56:05

no

MANIFOLD

mani-xaNCakgpdrgEEJCgHFBl

Will Sweden join NATO by March 7th 2024 at 12:34 PM Eastern Time?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-06T11:02:36

2024-03-07T09:17:30

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-GYAAQ6CmZVglamDaefKt

Will every letter in the alphabet be used at least twice in the State of the union address?

This will resolve based on the transcript published by the NYT after the state of the union. Here is the 2023 transcript https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/08/us/politics/biden-state-of-the-union-transcript.html this would have resolved yes in 2023

2024-03-06T09:34:36

2024-03-07T20:59:00

2024-03-08T03:49:18

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-KHRYDxwTUuiiAg5seQdv

👻 Will "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" gross more than "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" during its opening weekend? (>$44M)

Source: The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21235248/ will be used to resolve this market. The "Domestic Opening" listed for "Ghostbusters: Afterlife" (2021) is $44,008,406. Thus, this market resolves to YES if "Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire" grosses more than $44,008,406 during its domestic opening weekend (according to BoxOfficeMojo). Otherwise, it resolves to NO. I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" is the 3-day total (plus previews) for North America. But that's my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I'll use whatever they post.

2024-03-06T08:32:19

2024-03-26T23:05:27

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-gvyVQOZm9TqrxvmEIZid

Will Joe Biden say the word “Cricket” (as it relates to the sport) in public any time in 2024?

The T20 cricket World Cup takes place in the Caribbean and the US this year. Only counts if there is an audio/video clip accessible on the internet.

2024-03-06T07:56:30

2024-12-31T05:59:00

2025-01-20T12:46:00

no

MANIFOLD

mani-pebCX5ykcyUMUo0kdj2z

Will Kamala Harris refuse to certify the results of the 2024 election?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-06T01:59:59

2025-01-06T11:41:56

no

MANIFOLD

mani-xCkxZU5QiJ3cwpcfNo9N

Will Elon Musk loan or donate to Trump any money by EOY 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T23:11:22

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-27T14:11:03

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-iYZhu7fr9rvYSUWj3HrS

Will Twitter AND Google both get new CEOs in the year 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T21:11:52

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-04T09:34:15

no

MANIFOLD

mani-SUe6veYYBzcETvSpf5h4

Will Oppenheimer win best picture AND Bitcoin reach $70K AND Nintendo announce a new console by EOY 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T20:53:28

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-04T11:16:03

no

MANIFOLD

mani-CQfdeDi64L4yB8KgyZVh

Will Tesla reach $200 on or before May 1, 2024

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T19:37:38

2024-05-01T20:59:00

2024-05-02T06:47:07

no

MANIFOLD

mani-y0Xmv6AsGI3oxlM3cKQb

Will Vladimir Putin win Russia's 2024 presidential election with 90% or more of the vote?

This is a variation of cshunter's question but with the threshold set to 90%. Russia is set to hold a presidential election on 17 March 2024. According to Wikipedia, Vladimir Putin's share of the vote in previous elections were as follows: 2018: 77.53% 2012: 64.35% 2008: N/A (Putin was Vice President; his ally, Dmitry Medvedev ran for President; Medvedev received 71.25% of the vote) 2004: 71.91% 2000: 53.44% Will Putin's share of the vote in the 2024 election be 90% or more, as recorded on Wikipedia's election page? In the unlikely event of a second round of voting, the second round's percentage will be used. Related question: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202)(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-vladimir-putin-win-russias-202-54159d9de26d)

2024-03-05T18:40:28

2024-03-18T06:51:20

no

MANIFOLD

mani-r13PhDYlNzOe5amy8n0Q

Will we find out more about Blackbeard’s lineage/bloodline by EOY 2024?

It’s clear Blackbeard has a special lineage/bloodline, as confirmed by Saturn in chapter 1107. Resolves as “YES” if we find any details about what makes Blackbeard so special (his bloodline) by 00:00:00 January 1st, 2025. Resolves as “NO” otherwise. I don’t answer my own questions.

2024-03-05T17:53:34

2025-01-01T23:59:00

2025-01-19T08:40:06

no

MANIFOLD

mani-x2b7l2IPX38JbTIIT0ui

Will Aston Villa beat Tottenham during regular time on Sun, Mar 10, 2024? - Premier League

⚽ Aston Villa vs Tottenham 📅 Date: Sunday, March 10, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Aston Villa has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Tottenham has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google

2024-03-05T16:01:42

2024-03-10T09:00:00

2024-03-10T15:38:27

no

MANIFOLD

mani-RDVM1gzoCcyg7JVglfSn

Will Trump improve his margin with Black voters in 2024?

CNN's exit poll in 2020 found Biden+75, Fox found Biden +83. Resolves Yes if the mean between the two sources is <D+79

2024-03-05T15:29:31

2024-11-11T01:15:45

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-Ux0hSv37tCFYzRCEisb0

Will Joe Biden resign the presidency at any point during this term or potential future term?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T13:40:23

2025-01-21T20:59:00

2025-01-31T23:31:41

no

MANIFOLD

mani-y7Wt35J6Twz61vlIus0x

Will chapter 1111 of One Piece have at least 3 two-page spreads?

Chapter 1109 had 3 of them (8-9, 10-11,and 13-15). What about 1111? I'll use the way TCB scans publishes pages as a metric for what constitutes a two-page spread (other groups may upload spreads as 2 separate pictures). It does not need to be a single panel that fills both pages. Resolves whenever I read the chapter (around 21st/22nd of March if TCB publishes as usual).

2024-03-05T13:15:24

2024-03-22T13:40:55

no

MANIFOLD

mani-MBwi6hrG93s6FG1TZj8P

At EOY 2024, will ByteDance own the American version of TikTok?

US politicians are once again making moves to ban or force divestment on TikTok in. Will it succeed this time, and if so when? Some other questions ask if TikTok will "be banned" or "forced to change ownership", which describes an earlier part of the process or seems vague. This question concerns the actual ownership, at the time of resolution. Edit: As clarified in the comments, if the app is shut down/inactive/banned in the US/... but still owned by TikTok, and the company hasn't A) shut down or B) divested the app. In such cases, this question resolves YES. Question might resolve YES early in case there's a fully finished transaction to another entity. I will not trade in this market, in case resolution gets tricky. See sister question with same criteria for EOY 2025: (https://manifold.markets/embed/HenriThunberg/at-eoy-2024-will-bytedance-control-3573ccb36df3)

2024-03-05T11:28:10

2024-12-31T23:59:00

2025-01-02T02:30:10

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-7eSjNPYWG2kA76qhjSWV

Will Sweden join NATO before the end of St Patrick's Day?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T10:47:08

2024-03-07T09:56:06

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-1PUOjhx6ClT1z2ex2IRS

Will Destiny visit Israel in 2024?

[tweet]

2024-03-05T09:50:22

2024-06-01T06:44:16

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-yNu9YnOnlJwKAQ3nJjWy

Will Sweden join NATO before the end of March 8th?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T09:16:56

2024-03-07T09:09:48

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-pDbaLkuaYN1RlraheHmc

At the end of 2024 will Bitcoin be closer to $100K than $50K?

Bitcoin price as reported by Google

2024-03-05T08:17:22

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-01T19:37:34

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-k1IrWCgQfhnsZcn3AOiq

NBA Finals - Will the Boston Celtics and the Denver Nuggets be the two teams that play in the NBA Finals in June 2024?

NBA Finals begin on June 6, 2024. I may bet on this question.

2024-03-05T06:42:54

2024-05-19T19:32:43

no

MANIFOLD

mani-lv6QSHGUQCWG2wsLUgsb

Will five quarterbacks be drafted in the top twenty picks at the 2024 NFL Draft?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-05T00:59:23

2024-04-25T22:05:21

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-TXJwsCKs0ue1sjWYsEt2

Will Ferrari win 2 races before Max Verstappen wins 8?

Only 2024 feature (full length) races count. Any Ferrari driver counts. Goes by official race results after all penalties, if any, are applied. Resolves as soon as one of the two events occurs. Resolves n/a if neither event happens this season. 7 races completed: Ferrari: 1 Max: 5

2024-03-04T23:10:58

2024-05-26T10:15:27

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-3DXAyR1kNHyokAdy3JqC

How will Bitcoin preform in 2024?

There are 101 possible resolution outcomes to this market. If this doesn't resolve yes or no, it will resolve to a % at the end of the year based on what BTC price closes at on the last day. Resolves to Investing Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a high of 100,000 Resolves No if Bitcoin hits (not closes) a low of 999 Otherwise this market resolves to a % based on the price of bitcoin at the end of the year. Example Resolutions: 99% = 99,000 87% = 87,000 50% = 50,000 36% = 36,000 1% = 1,000 MIN(1, ROUNDDOWN(price/100000, 2)) - Inspired by MRN

2024-03-04T21:15:40

2024-12-04T18:57:59

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-35XWFz2weLk7gIsSld51

Will Bitcoin trade above $70,000 in march?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T21:12:37

2024-03-08T17:27:26

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-TNF9DS4mgiGVkky9ssgi

Will the Workers Party of Britain win any seats at the next UK General Election?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T19:53:01

2024-07-06T16:44:29

no

MANIFOLD

mani-3let40Fv0UvJgXfcKv5n

Will there be a perfect game pitched in Major League Baseball in 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T19:39:06

2024-10-30T21:03:16

no

MANIFOLD

mani-hmbcAr9oDo5Xr9XT6xQH

Will Bitcoin hit $70K in March 2024?

https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.

2024-03-04T19:04:04

2024-03-10T11:42:33

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-GkGVVhKxHk6F8r9bak9Q

Will Bitcoin hit $72K in March 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T19:03:47

2024-03-11T12:16:43

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-U0yX28gWmK1D1Z25veX5

Will Bitcoin hit $75K in March 2024?

https://blockchain.info will be considered as oracle.

2024-03-04T19:02:58

2024-03-30T23:59:00

2024-04-01T00:02:13

no

MANIFOLD

mani-aDSi3wOU2nmeaf7XheHB

Will Dune 2 gross over $1 billion at the worldwide box office?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T18:43:07

2024-04-11T19:03:29

no

MANIFOLD

mani-9EGl1XbCr91UfYv8SCid

Will the Russian Ukraine war ends before 2025?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T17:21:16

2024-12-31T20:59:00

2025-01-01T14:30:05

no

MANIFOLD

mani-0S6CtH9x9oCwa0JZFz3H

Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day that Reddit IPOs?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T16:44:01

2024-03-21T20:31:03

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-Ke8rX1Pr1ieVmYzQoVp1

Will ~all Claude premium users have access to 1m token context window by June 1st?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T16:03:24

2024-06-02T20:59:00

2024-06-10T08:18:25

no

MANIFOLD

mani-8XAupe2g3lO8P2Cok3Tx

Will Crystal Palace beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Mar 9, 2024? - Premier League

⚽ Crystal Palace vs Luton 📅 Date: Saturday, March 9, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Crystal Palace has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Luton has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google

2024-03-04T16:01:47

2024-03-09T10:00:00

2024-03-09T10:58:59

no

MANIFOLD

mani-YuJ7mNmjeWAeHckQ9Mcw

Will Amazon's ‘Fallout’ (2024) have an audience score above 60% on Rotten Tomatoes on April 26th?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T15:33:35

2024-04-26T13:45:22

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-hgVqlWvPYt0br7H9Q5mF

Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $190 before $170? (yet again!)

Last price: 2024-Mar-28 $171.48 (will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close) Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session since market creation (2024-Mar-01) during which the price stays above $190 (YES) or below $170 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $190 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $170 Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $180 then quoted prices next day would be $90 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)

2024-03-04T14:57:39

2024-04-02T13:10:32

no

MANIFOLD

mani-I2HJPBeSvVq5pC1UjMs1

Will Bitcoin hit $77,777 before $55,555?

Start courting from market creation Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $77,777 first Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $55,555 first Market close date will be extended as needed.

2024-03-04T13:19:59

2024-07-04T21:30:34

no

MANIFOLD

mani-zR3bDPjkRVf2VfdB1YmC

Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4-1106-preview on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?

Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks GPT-4-1106-preview at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point. https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard For a version that includes any GPT-4 model released during that time, see here: https://manifold.markets/JonasVollmer/will-claude-3-outrank-gpt4-on-the-l

2024-03-04T12:42:49

2024-03-21T08:19:00

2024-03-21T09:07:26

no

MANIFOLD

mani-fIMF2qc97iBt7X3OSgHk

Will GPT-4's successor be released this week?

Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it.

2024-03-04T10:18:40

2024-03-11T04:01:00

2024-03-11T04:36:23

no

MANIFOLD

mani-i4EeRJk3ay8bOyEla489

Will Bitcoin price surpass $99,999 before 9/9?

Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD

2024-03-04T08:28:07

2024-09-09T10:01:02

no

MANIFOLD

mani-08LJfhwpzlnXJu92WGmY

Will bitcoin be above $66666 at the end of March?

The price of BTC is over $66666 on the day this market was made, will it still be above $66666 at the end of March? Using price from Google

2024-03-04T08:20:59

2024-03-31T20:59:00

2024-03-31T21:11:17

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-PhL157P3YYVDEOmIjAQb

Will bitcoin still be above $66666 at the end of 6/6?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-04T08:20:16

2024-06-06T21:11:18

2024-06-06T21:11:23

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-hrUoioShIbKJMRAhu05b

Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before 7/7?

Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD

2024-03-04T08:19:41

2024-07-07T07:06:32

no

MANIFOLD

mani-23lPxTXHdNkHUaomqzgY

Will Claude 3 outrank GPT-4 on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard?

Resolves YES if any Claude 3 model outranks the best-performing GPT-4 model at any point within two weeks of first being listed, i.e. if users prefer Claude 3 responses to GPT-4 responses at any point. (GPT-4.5 would not count as a GPT-4 model.) https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard EDIT: Clarification, due to the new way ranks are displayed on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Elo Leaderboard: If Claude 3 and GPT-4 both have rank 1, but the Arena Elo of the former is greater than the one of the latter, this resolves YES. I believe this is most in line with how it was meant when this market was first created.

2024-03-04T07:38:22

2024-03-21T08:19:00

2024-03-21T09:27:11

no

MANIFOLD

mani-wxPEH8T7t7jUlIeJ6VPJ

Will Cardano Reach a Dollar Before the End of March?

will Cardano reach 1 dollar in https://coinmarketcap.com/pt-br/currencies/cardano/ at any point in time before the end of march. ______________price in 03/04/2024_________________ [image]

2024-03-04T07:23:21

2024-03-31T19:59:00

2024-04-01T02:22:06

no

MANIFOLD

mani-Akop4FYN2OCFpPCKbOXC

Will any Claude 3 variant reach top 3 rank on LMSYS leaderboard by 15 March 2024?

https://chat.lmsys.org/

2024-03-04T07:12:54

2024-03-07T10:12:01

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-iRn5khcEyIDKYCOs8EmC

Will Claude 3 turn out to be better than or equal to GPT-4 in perceived performance?

I will try it myself and decide by the end of the month. Resolves YES if any of the Claude 3 variants perform better than or equal to the best GPT-4.

2024-03-04T07:05:53

2024-05-24T11:20:13

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-sQRBunV5k2jkPDk15AWK

Will Bitcoin price surpass $77,777 before the end of 2024?

Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD

2024-03-04T06:42:50

2024-11-11T11:18:15

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-3oL3vMUAFkLNPMOOlXlI

Will ETH increase MoM in Mar, 2024?

Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.

2024-03-04T06:40:01

2024-03-31T20:59:00

2024-04-01T04:33:56

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-iuCtquyJ6P0BVqHgadbA

Will Bitcoin reach 69420 by March 15th?

March 15th is defined as end of day UTC Bitcoin price is defined as a printed trade at 69420 spot price on Binance

2024-03-04T06:24:03

2024-03-08T10:13:39

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-MiYKcO3SMlpUqgbRh9TK

Will the "░N░U░D░E░S░ ░I░N░ ░B░I░O░" bots be gone from twitter before the end of 2024?

It doesn't have to be exactly that, but something similar to it. Yes, that's subjective, but I think any more objective criteria will be goodhearted in the fight between twitter and the bots. Resolves NO if people still see that regularly, YES if it's much less common than it is now.

2024-03-04T03:55:48

2024-12-31T23:59:00

2025-01-08T23:12:33

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-298Vyn12n5aba4pYtr5U

Will Destiny attend Manifest 2024?

[image]

2024-03-04T02:27:08

2024-06-10T12:58:54

no

MANIFOLD

mani-i7GoraRmufAGZAlNYAXE

Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of 2024?

Going by Google for BTC price

2024-03-04T00:55:01

2024-11-07T10:43:57

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-WWSSTwWj9LXmTN02XySe

Will Bitcoin reach $76543.21 before the end of Autism Awareness Day? (April 2)

Going by Google for BTC price

2024-03-04T00:54:07

2024-04-02T20:59:00

2024-04-02T21:08:13

no

MANIFOLD

mani-db35JXR76He4NhzSmODi

Will Sweden join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $75K?

Going by Google for Bitcoin price

2024-03-04T00:47:17

2024-03-07T09:56:12

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-N4aiwKT8lHZ8Pe58UAIO

Will Bitcoin reach $75K before the end of May Day? (May 1)

Using Google for the price.

2024-03-04T00:45:17

2024-05-01T20:59:00

2024-05-01T21:17:46

no

MANIFOLD

mani-xwv3CrxjVBbkPXaS70Jv

Will Apple release a new iPad by May 2024?

Resolves YES if a new Apple iPad model is available for US consumers to purchase any time before May 1, 2024. Updates to existing model lines (iPad pro, air, mini, etc.) all count. Edge cases: If a new model is available for pre-order before April 1, resolves YES. If a new model is announced, but not available for purchase or pre-order, resolves NO.

2024-03-03T23:01:20

2024-04-30T23:59:00

2024-05-01T08:12:50

no

MANIFOLD

mani-aF6FeynTYYiAS0WC8Eyq

Will the EU get a Defense Commissioner following the election?

Speaking at the Munich Security Conference, von der Leyen said it would be “reasonable” to create the post, should she secure a second term at the helm of the EU institution after June’s European elections. (source) Resolves YES if the next commission after the election in June has a dedicated defense commissioner post. It may be a different literal title as long as it can be traced to the current proposal. Resolves NO if no such role is established. Close date might be extended.

2024-03-03T22:44:04

2024-12-12T14:59:00

2024-12-28T16:25:03

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-nRoK5upuuqi4MJ8s4OkP

Will there be a Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, even if temporary, before the end of Halloween 2024?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-03T21:40:44

2024-10-31T13:08:46

no

MANIFOLD

mani-XDEBcuPbYpXPoIanRyei

Israel:Hamas ceasefire in March? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸

At any point in the month of March will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas? Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES: Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs Israel and Hamas end their war Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of March 31st, 2024.

2024-03-03T16:41:18

2024-03-31T23:59:00

2024-04-01T06:30:10

no

MANIFOLD

mani-rUe19GhdbKcdlqoNI4RP

Will the 2024 FIDE Candidates chess tournament be held in Toronto, Canada?

Resolves YES if the 2024 candidates tournament (https://candidates2024.fide.com/) is held in Toronto, otherwise NO.

2024-03-03T14:52:11

2024-04-03T20:31:16

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-02L1OjjSkTFAwqIzOtQC

Will The Verge launch an ActivityPub integration before May 1?

ActivityPub is the protocol that the Fediverse, which includes Mastodon, is built on. Nilay Patel, The Verge's EIC, has been talking about how the plan for The Verge is to federate more of their site for a while (you can hear him lay it out here), but so far none of that has happened publicly. Will resolve YES if The Verge federates any part of the site through ActivityPub before May 1, 2024. The launch must come with a commitment to a semi-permanent feature. Launching a feature "in beta" is fine if it's a continual integration of any aspect of the site, but federating a few quickposts or a single liveblog as a test would not be enough to resolve YES. Just making an official account on Mastodon or another federated social media network also doesn't count; the integration needs to be come through the website. This is my first question post, so please feel free to question or critique my resolution criteria.

2024-03-03T14:51:54

2024-04-30T23:59:00

2024-05-01T00:31:53

no

MANIFOLD

mani-Va5dSloFJHIX9Q2MjcOY

Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) gross >$40M on its opening weekend?

This market will resolve to YES if "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) grosses more than $40,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO. The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/ will be used to resolve this market. Details: I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Kung Fu Panda 3 would have been $41,282,042. For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.

2024-03-03T13:18:14

2024-03-11T16:26:59

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-5zat9XTUJ4N39zJF0vFB

Will Trump's Vice Presidential Running Mate be one of Tim Scott, Kristi Noem, Elise Stefanik, or Vivek Ramaswamy?

If you add up the chances these candidates have in current markets, it seems more likely than not that one of these four people will be Trump's choice for VP. But how likely exactly? It's possible these candidates' odds have been individually distorted due to the complex nature of multiple choice markets with many options, where people bet on many long-shot candidates and few people are willing to buy those long-shots down below interest rates. A binary market grouping these candidates together might be informative. This market will be subsidized to incentivize accuracy. This market resolves after Trump formally announces his running mate, or resolves N/A if he does not(such as if he stops running for president). It resolves YES if he chooses one of these four people, or NO if he chooses someone else.

2024-03-03T10:49:20

2024-07-15T12:21:51

no

MANIFOLD

mani-had84NRv6wyl96ayWLvg

Will Trump announce his Vice President running mate before the end of Juneteenth?

{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}

2024-03-03T10:05:04

2024-06-19T18:03:49

no

MANIFOLD

mani-Ujp52Bu5bgxA4d3WkRtC

Will Mike Pence endorse or says he intends to vote for Trump?

Resolves YES if by anytime prior to election day 2024 Mike Pence endorses or says he intends to vote for Donald Trump. Resolves NO if Pence says he will not endorse Trump or remains neutral. This market is intent to have a better title but identical resolution criteria of this one: (https://manifold.markets/embed/BTE/will-mike-pence-endorse-trump)

2024-03-02T16:43:44

2024-11-06T01:49:08

no

MANIFOLD

mani-GJj8oqipDWtwEpkjVCvY

Will the next NYT / Siena poll be more favorable for Biden than the March 2nd one?

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/02/us/politics/biden-trump-times-siena-poll.html\n\nThe latest NYT / Siena poll was released today, and shows Trump leading Biden by 5%. This is substantially worse for Biden than their most recent poll last year. Will things shift in Biden's favor by the time next poll is released in a few months? \n\nResolves based on Trump's vote share minus Biden's vote share being less in the next poll than this one. Resolves NO if the polls show the same result. Resolves N/A if the two results are not directly comparable (e.g. RV versus LV, or the next poll includes third-party candidates)."

2024-03-02T11:39:06

2024-04-13T10:45:19

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-rlKwKh2HtATRRymu5Wf9

Will Trump beat Biden again in the next New York Times/Sienna national poll?

The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally. Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022. If Trump beats Biden in the next released national Times/Sienna poll, this market resolves YES. If Biden is tied with or ahead of Trump, this market resolves NO. See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in You can find more questions like this in the Polling Dashboard.

2024-03-02T10:53:47

2024-04-13T07:59:10

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-1wOtpdjYH3MWaMyIZ0nL

Will Trump beat Biden in every New York Times/Sienna national poll before election day?

The NY Times/Sienna poll is often considered to be the gold standard of national polling. They are at the top of 538's pollster rankings, with a perfect 3 star score. Their latest poll shows Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points nationally. Their previous poll in December 2023 showed Biden ahead by 2 points , and before that it was a tie in July of 2023, and before that Trump was ahead by 1 point in October of 2022. If Trump beats Biden in every national Times/Sienna poll from March until election day, this market resolves yes. If Biden is ever tied or ahead of Trump, this market resolves No. See also: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-beat-joe-biden-in-6a298ba85678 You can find more questions like this in the Polling Dashboard.

2024-03-02T10:51:51

2024-11-03T17:25:21

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-JNXecCr0xf1lvGJwiK19

Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race by the end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of Trump's Taco Bowl Tweet?

[image]

2024-03-02T10:01:32

2024-03-06T10:24:21

yes

MANIFOLD

mani-2alweinFj3cINlAHey5G

Will Q* be legally considered AGI?

ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.courthousenews.com/elon-musk-sues-openai-over-ai-threat/\n\n[image]For a judicial determination that Q* and/or other OpenAI next generation large language models in development constitute(s) Artificial General Intelligence\n\nResolves YES if judgment C is granted, or any other court ruling causing Q* or other LLMs distinct from GPT-4 to be legally considered AGI in context of Microsoft's agreement.\n\nResolves NO if there are no active cases, 1 month has passed without a derivative case(such as appeal) being filed or specific date given where Elon intends to file, and no evidence of judgment causing Q* or non-GPT-4 LLM to be legally considered AGI is presented.\n\nResolves 50% if 1 month after market close and after Mira reminds traders to present evidence, no trader has either linked evidence that the case is on-going, linked evidence that it should resolve YES, or linked evidence that the case is closed.\n\nResolves NA if this market gets fewer than 20 traders.\n\nTraders are responsible for presenting evidence for this market. I may search myself, but I won't follow the case closely.\n\nDefault close date is end of 2024. I will extend it if the case continues in increments of 1 year. Resolves NO at end of 2030 if market is still open.\n\nSee also: @/MiraBot/will-gpt4-be-legally-considered-agi \n\n@/MiraBot/will-elon-musks-qgpt4-are-agi-lawsu "

2024-03-02T09:10:50

2024-12-31T23:59:00

2025-03-01T08:14:36

no

MANIFOLD

mani-Nr0uxH7O7OkGO2xH9Wtr

Will Logan Sargeant last the full 2024 Formula 1 season?

Resolves NO if a replacement driver for Sargeant is announced for any races this season, due to Sargeant's performance and not e.g. injury, or penalty points accumulation. UNLESS the replacement driver is Alex Albon because Williams has only one car; that doesn’t count.

2024-03-02T08:27:55

2024-08-27T10:29:02

no

MANIFOLD

mani-9ujeJESzfgiTDz0NVyI1

Will the Houthis sink a second ship before 2025?

It's been confirmed the Houthis sank their first ship in the Red Sea, the Rubymar. This market resolves YES if they manage to sink another one. Sink means to damage so catastrophically it sinks on its own, or is not salvageable so it is purposely sank by a third party. Small ships are excluded, the ship must be over 100 feet long.

2024-03-02T07:32:30

2024-06-19T15:22:37

yes

MANIFOLD