id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
meta-29486 | Will it rain more than 100mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024? | Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noti... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-20T22:29:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29485 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure app... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T20:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29484 | Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2025? | In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (W... | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-02T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:19:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29438 | Will at least three of the five major networks declare a winner in the upcoming US presidential election by noon ET on Nov. 6? | Every election from 2004 to 2016 was called before noon on the day after the election. In 2020, it took four days before most networks certified Joe Biden's victory.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, the five major networks are NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and Fox News. To resolve in the affirmative, any t... | 2024-11-01T16:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T01:00:00Z | 2024-11-06T12:18:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29433 | Will North Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state? | Ballotpedia: [North Dakota Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_5,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if North Dakota Initiated Measure 5 is approved in the 2024 general electi... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29432 | Will Donald Trump outperform Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee in the 2024 election? | [Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump receives more votes in the 2024 presidential race in the state of Tennessee than Marsha Blackburn receiv... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T13:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29431 | Will Kalshi be #1 in the free apps in the Apple App Store on November 5, 2024? | On October 28, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1851102973738271088), "Alright - this is getting crazy.
Raise your hand if you want a market on who will be #1 in the entire App Store by Nov 5th?"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on November 5, 2024, accor... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:36:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29430 | Will Donald Trump sweep all 7 battleground states in the 2024 election? | Newsweek: [Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-1971095)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvani... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-10T12:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29429 | Will Hawaii voters approve the constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2024, which would repeal the state's ban on same-sex marriage? | Ballotpedia: [Hawaii Remove Legislature Authority to Limit Marriage to Opposite-Sex Couples Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii_Remove_Legislature_Authority_to_Limit_Marriage_to_Opposite-Sex_Couples_Amendment_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Hawaii Remove Legislature ... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29428 | Will South Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 29, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state? | Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Initiated Measure 29, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_29,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if South Dakota Initiated Measure 29 is approved in the 2024 general ele... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29427 | Will Democratic Congressman Don Davis be re-elected in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [North Carolina's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Davis wins the election to the House of Representatives fro... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29426 | Will Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito be re-elected in New York's 4th Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [New York's 4th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthony D'Esposito wins the election to the House of Representatives from New ... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T21:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29425 | Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah win 55% or more of the vote in the first round of the Namibian presidential election? | Wikipedia: [2024 Namibian general election
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Namibian_general_election)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah wins greater than or equal to 55.0% of the vote in the 2024 Namibian presidential election, according to [credible source](https://... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T19:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29424 | Will Missouri voters approve Missouri Amendment 7, which would prohibit ranked-choice voting in the state? | Ballotpedia: [Missouri Amendment 7, Require Citizenship to Vote and Prohibit Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_7,_Require_Citizenship_to_Vote_and_Prohibit_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Amendment_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [Missouri Amendment... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29423 | Will Kevin Stefanski be the Cleveland Browns head coach on January 1, 2025? | Cleveland 19 News: [Will Cleveland Browns’ Kevin Stefanski be 1st coach fired this NFL season?](https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/09/12/first-coach-fired/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kevin Stefanski is the head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sour... | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29376 | Will Massachusetts voters approve Question 4, which would legalize psychedelic substances for adults 21 years old and older? | Ballotpedia: [Massachusetts Question 4, Legalization and Regulation of Psychedelic Substances Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Question_4,_Legalization_and_Regulation_of_Psychedelic_Substances_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Massachusetts Amendment 4... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29375 | Will Florida voters approve Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adults 21 years old and older? | Ballotpedia: [Florida Amendment 3, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_3,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Florida Amendment 3 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](http... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29374 | Will Ohio voters approve Ohio Issue 1, which seeks to end gerrymandering in the state? | Wikipedia: [2024 Ohio Issue 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Ohio Issue 1 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: Please note that this ... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29373 | Will Democrats be ahead in the generic ballot on Election Day, according to 538? | Pew: [Why The Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2002/10/01/why-the-generic-ballot-test/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the 538 [generic ballot tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/) on November 5, 2024, Democrats lead... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T23:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29372 | Will Democratic Congressman Jared Golden be re-elected in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [Maine's 2nd Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Jared Golden wins the election to the House of Representatives from Maine's 2nd Cong... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T16:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29371 | Will Republican Congressman John Duarte be re-elected in California's 13th Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [California's 13th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_13th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if John Duarte wins the election to the House of Representatives from Calif... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T13:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29370 | Will Oregon voters approve Oregon Measure 117, which would establish ranked-choice voting in the state? | Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 117, Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_117,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_for_Federal_and_State_Elections_Measure_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Oregon Measure 117 is approved in the 2024 ge... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29369 | Will Alaska voters approve Alaska Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting and nonpartisan primaries in the state? | Ballotpedia: [Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Repeal Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Ballot_Measure_2,_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [Alaska Ballot Measure 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-23T16:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29368 | Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before January 1, 2025? | SpaceX aims to make the entire [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system—both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft—fully reusable with a rapid turnaround between launches. To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-fligh... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29367 | Will election night 2024 end without Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, or Nate Cohn calling the 2024 presidential election? | All three elections analysts are known for calling elections before official media sources such as the AP. For previous AP calls please see: [Here’s when past presidential elections were called](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954203-heres-when-past-presidential-elections-were-called/)
Resolution Criteria: This... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T17:57:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29366 | Will Donald Trump says "win," "won," or "winner" on election night? | On election night 2020, Donald Trump said the word "won" 15 times; see transcript [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump publicly utters the words "win," "won," or "winner" on the election night 2024, which for purposes of this quest... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-31T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T19:46:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29320 | Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024? | Joe Rogan endorsed RFK Jr. following RFK Jr.'s appearance on the Rogan podcast. There are [reports](https://www.essentiallysports.com/ufc-mma-news-joe-rogan-finally-admits-his-curiosity-for-donald-trump-podcast-amid-demand-for-jre-episode/) that Trump may appear on the Rogan podcast, amid increasing praise from Rogan i... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:46:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29319 | In the 2024 US elections, will the party winning the White House differ from the party winning the House of Representatives? | The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the political party winning control of the House of Representives differs from the party of the ind... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T14:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29318 | In the 2024 US elections, will Republicans win both the White House and the House of Representatives? | The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representives and if the individual who wins the ... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T14:20:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29317 | In the 2024 US elections, will Democrats win both the White House and the House of Representatives? | The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party wins control of the House of Representives and if the individual who wins the ... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29316 | Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2025?
| Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.
One way to decrease the chance of this type of ... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T23:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29315 | Will Donald Trump outperform Rick Scott in Florida in the 2024 election? | [Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump receives more votes in the 2024 presidential race in the state of Florida than Rick Scott receives in th... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T23:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29314 | Will Kamala Harris win New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Maine in the 2024 election? | On journalist Mark Halperin's political discussion show [Two-Way on October 25, 2024](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE-GYg9lD5Y), the panel mentioned that the biggest possible states for a Trump upset were New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamal... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:09:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29313 | Will the same presidential candidate win Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 election? | [Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the same candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolv... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T13:37:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29312 | Will Donald Trump win Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 election? | [Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves accord... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-10T12:32:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29311 | Will a European Union ban into non-commercial internal combustion engines take effect before January 1, 2025? | Currently, the European Union plans on [banning new petrol and diesel cars from 2035](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20221019STO44572/eu-ban-on-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2035-explained).
However, the last EU election resulted in [record seats for far-right parties and collapse of green p... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T19:55:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29310 | Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before January 1, 2025?
| According to CDC, "The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.
Marburg is a rare but severe hemorrhagic fever, similar to Ebola, that can cause serious illness and death.... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:13:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29309 | Will a woman be named the Time Person of the Year for 2024? | Wikipedia: [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a woman is named as the sole Person of the Year by Time. If Time names more than one individual, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For example, when Kamala... | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T14:28:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29277 | Will country music singer/songwriter Riley Green endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024? | Riley Green is notable for being a conservative musician according to articles such as [this](https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/conservative-musicians-worth-a-listen/), though he has not made any endorsements in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if musician Riley Green endorses Donald Trump, ... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T13:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29276 | Before November 5, 2024, will Kalshi ever show Donald Trump with a 70% chance of winning? | Kalshi began election trading in the US presidential election on October 4, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kalshi, at [this link](https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections), ever shows Donald Trump with a 70% chance of winning for any day before November 5, 2024. If this e... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T20:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29275 | Will Montana voters approve CI-128, which would add the right to abortion to the state's constitution? | Ballotpedia: [Montana CI-128, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Montana_CI-128,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Montana CI-128 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T19:35:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29274 | Will Mayor Brandon Scott receive 70% of the vote in the 2024 Baltimore mayoral race? | From Wikipedia: "The 2024 Baltimore mayoral election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of Baltimore, Maryland. Incumbent Brandon Scott was first elected in 2020 with 70.5% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[1] Scott was considered vulnerable, as polls found that Baltimore re... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T12:56:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29273 | Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [Colorado's 8th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_8th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Yadira Caraveo wins the election to the House of Representatives from Colorado... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T19:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29272 | Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024? | As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for seventh, specifically through model "Meta-Llama-3.1-405b-Instruct-bf16".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "llama" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://hugging... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T22:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29271 | Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024? | As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for for fourth, specifically through its model "Grok-2-08-13".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "grok" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T22:36:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29270 | Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024? | As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked as tied seventh, specifically through its model "Claude 3.5 Sonnet".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "claude" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/l... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T22:34:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29269 | Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024? | As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for fourth, specifically through its model "Gemini-1.5-Pro-Exp-0827".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "gemini" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.c... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T22:33:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29268 | Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024? | As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with models "chatgpt-4o-latest" and "o1-preview".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model owned by OpenAI is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/cha... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T22:31:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29266 | Will Revolut officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025? | According to [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-revolut-explore-joining-170-170622285.html), "Companies from Robinhood Markets Inc. to Revolut Ltd. are considering launching stablecoins, betting that stricter regulations in Europe and elsewhere will finally loosen Tether Holdings Ltd.’s grip on the ra... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T20:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29265 | Will CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2025, be "Low"? | In evolving situations, subject-matter experts at CDC sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/index.html) to the general public of the United States. Normally this is done by CDC's [Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics](https://ww... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29264 | Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before January 1, 2025? | The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2):
A **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main object... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29263 | Will the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024, to January 4, 2025, be below 2.0? | As of the end of September 2024, the dominant COVID variant in the United States [was](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/in-2-weeks-xec-jumps-from-5th-to-2nd-most-dominant-covid-variant.html) KP.3.1.1, with XEC having risen from 5th place to 2nd place in just two weeks. Nationally, wastewater detectio... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29262 | Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2025? | According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):
>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circul... | 2024-10-28T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-29T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29242 | [Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election? | Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure app... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-05T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T01:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29212 | Will Republican Congressman David Schweikert be re-elected in Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if David Schweikert wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona'... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T14:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29210 | At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Venezuela as "currently" blocking access to Twitter/X? | According to the resolution source, "On August 8, 2024, President Nicolás Maduro announced a ban on access to Twitter for ten days amid anti-government protests, citing incitations of hatred, fascism and civil war.[124] The ban was subsequently extended for an indefinite period.[125]"
Resolution Criteria: This questio... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29209 | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before January 1, 2025? | According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then,... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T19:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29208 | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before December 1, 2024? | According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then,... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T18:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29207 | Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before November 1, 2024? | According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then,... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T19:51:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29206 | Will Mike McCarthy be the Dallas Cowboys head coach on January 1, 2025? | The Sporting News: [Will Cowboys fire Mike McCarthy? Why embattled coach is on hot seat after Dallas starts 1-2](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-cowboys-fire-mike-mccarthy-coach-hot-seat/3ff1abbba7137a60366b2851)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if on January 1, 2025, Mike McCarthy ... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T12:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29205 | Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025? | As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its ... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T20:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29204 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):
>On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for ... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29203 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain ... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29202 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | [Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.
Following [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administr... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T01:02:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29201 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended... | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-26T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T17:58:22Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29183 | Will Kelly Ayotte win the New Hampshire gubernatorial election in 2024? | Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, is running in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. As a Republican candidate with a significant political background, she has a strong presence in the state’s political landscape. However, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial elections can be competitive, with ... | 2024-10-24T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T23:02:00Z | 2024-11-07T22:43:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29181 | Will the 2024 US presidential election be called before 5:00 PM on 11/7/2024? | The Associated Press (AP) has historically been one of the most trusted and widely cited news organizations in the United States when it comes to officially declaring election results. In previous elections, the AP has made its call once a candidate has secured a sufficient number of electoral votes, based on reliable ... | 2024-10-24T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T22:55:00Z | 2024-11-07T22:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29180 | What is the probability that the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) will report on student response to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election (either negative or positive) by 2:00 PM EST on 11/7? | BDH is the Brown Daily Herald: https://www.browndailyherald.com/
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if an article is published by the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) by 2:00 PM EST on [insert date], reporting on student responses to the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
A "student respons... | 2024-10-24T22:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-07T22:42:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29176 | What is the probability that Jon Tester be re-elected to the Montana Senate? | https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/21/montana-senate-race-jon-tester-democrats
Resolution Criteria: based on what is reported by AP | 2024-10-24T18:34:00Z | 2024-11-07T19:20:00Z | 2024-11-07T22:42:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29170 | Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before January 1, 2025? | After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly t... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29168 | Before Election Day, will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast? | Newsweek: [Joe Rogan Ridicules Donald Trump, Says Kamala Harris Is 'Nailing It'](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-donald-trump-kamala-harris-nailing-it-1955173)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before November 5, 2024, Kamala Harris appears on the Joe Rogan podcast, listed on the podcast episode... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T17:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29167 | Before Election Day, will Donald Trump appear on the Call Her Daddy podcast? | Vulture: [Alex Cooper Invited Trump on Call Her Daddy, Too](https://www.vulture.com/article/call-her-daddy-kamala-harris-trump-invited.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump appears on the Call Her Daddy podcast, listed on the podcast episodes page [here](http... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T17:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29165 | Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on December 31, 2024? | On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.polit... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T00:41:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29164 | Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before January 1, 2025? | The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T20:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29163 | Will JD Vance cease to be Donald Trump's running mate before November 5, 2024? | On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-07T18:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29162 | Will the S&P 500 index go up in November 2024? | The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock mark... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T21:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29161 | On October 31, 2024, will VoteHub's Early Voting Tracker show Democrats having 2/3rd or higher of the mail and absentee ballots returned in Pennsylvania? | VoteHub [describes itself](https://about.votehub.us/) as "an election media organization that aims to provide top-notch, innovative coverage in three key areas: election reporting at a detailed level and in real time, public opinion survey aggregations, and analysis on election results and trends. We are nonpartisan an... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T20:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29160 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet? | Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question ... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:45:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29159 | Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before January 1, 2025? | Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from nei... | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-25T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T19:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29145 | Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025? | Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC'... | 2024-11-01T16:00:00Z | 2025-01-03T05:01:00Z | 2025-02-08T02:29:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29125 | Will rapper 50 Cent endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent): "Jackson endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the run-up for the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[242] He rejected an offer of $500,000 from the Trump campaign to make an appearance on the candidate's behalf.[243] However, he endorsed Donald T... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T13:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29124 | Will South Dakota voters approve Constitutional Amendment G, which would provide for a state constitutional right to an abortion? | Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Constitutional_Amendment_G,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G is approved in the 2024 gen... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-06T14:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29123 | Will Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani be re-elected in Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 election? | Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 6th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_6th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Juan Ciscomani wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona's ... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T19:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29122 | Will the USDA-posted recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before December 1, 2024? | According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), "Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T18:58:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29121 | Will BigBear.AI file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | BigBear.ai, which provides AI decision solutions to government and private clients, has run at operating losses since 2020 and in Q1 2024 raised capital by issuing $53.9 million in net new stock.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T19:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29120 | Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on Monday December 30, 2024? | According to Bloomberg:
>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.
Resolution Criteria: This questi... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T18:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29119 | Will Brian Daboll cease to be the New York Giants head coach before January 1, 2025? | NJ.com: [Will Giants fire Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen? Keep an eye on this key factor (beyond just losing)](https://www.nj.com/giants/2024/09/will-giants-fire-brian-daboll-joe-schoen-keep-an-eye-on-this-key-factor-beyond-just-losing.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, B... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T03:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29118 | Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactl... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:36:30Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29117 | Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactl... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:36:18Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29116 | Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactl... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:36:02Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29115 | Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactl... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:35:48Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29114 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:35:34Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29113 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:35:21Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29112 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:35:08Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29111 | Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games? | The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T14:34:38Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29110 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before January 1, 2025? | Reuters: [Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge
](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T20:10:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29109 | At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Brazil as "currently" blocking access to Twitter/X? | According to the resolution source, "On August 30, 2024, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court judge Alexandre de Moraes issued an order requiring Brazillian ISPs to block Twitter due to Elon Musk's refusal to appoint a legal representative of Twitter in Brazil, which was required by Brazilian law.[85] The ban itself cam... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29080 | Will the recreational marijuana amendment pass in the November 2024 election? | Florida voters are preparing to decide on the legalization of recreational marijuana through Amendment 3. Polls indicate strong public support, although opposition campaigns have intensified, particularly from Governor Ron DeSantis' administration. The amendment requires at least 60% of votes to pass.
Resolution Crit... | 2024-10-23T21:28:00Z | 2024-11-04T23:41:00Z | 2024-11-05T17:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29079 | Will Don Gaetz win the Florida State Senate District 1 election in 2024? | Don Gaetz, a former Florida Senate President, is running for the State Senate District 1 seat against Lisa Newell, a political newcomer. Newell aims to give voters a fresh choice, citing frustrations with Gaetz’s long political career and concerns about representation. This race draws attention as it involves key issu... | 2024-10-23T21:28:00Z | 2024-11-04T23:37:00Z | 2024-11-26T03:27:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29074 | Will the Schwab Trading Activity Index be lower for October 2024 than it was for September 2024? | [Schwab Trading Activity Index™: September Score Slides by Biggest Margin Since June ’22](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241007024576/en/): "The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10 in September, down from its score of 53.16 in August. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary,... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T13:12:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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