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meta-29486
|
Will it rain more than 100mm in Brasília, Brazil in December 2024?
|
Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, has [just had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noticias/brasil-tem-o-setembro-mais-quente-em-63-anos) for the area, and INMET expects 2024 to be one of the top 5 hottest years, which has also caused a surge in wildfires.
December is typically the [wettest month](https://avionero.com/New-York-Brasilia.NYC-BSB/weather/december) for Brasília, with rain averaging about 253 mm and an average of 21 rainy days in the month. See also [Weatherspark](https://weatherspark.com/y/30238/Average-Weather-in-Bras%C3%ADlia-Federal-District-Brazil-Year-Round), which found an average of about 215 mm and about 75% of days having at least 1 mm of rain.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves based on the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station [83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of December 2024.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).
2. Click the 🔍search icon on the left side of the screen.
3. Paste this into the search box: [83377] BRASILIA - DF
4. Click on the blue dot to access the weather station.
To access the precipitation data, click on "Tabela". The question will resolve based on the total *Chuva (mm)* for the month of December 2024.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable or data have not been released for every day of December, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the data to be available, at which point if they still are not available, this question will be **annulled**.
This question resolves based on the values shown when accessed by Metaculus after the data for December 31 are first released. Further revisions to the data will not be considered.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-20T22:29:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29485
|
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
|
Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems.
Proposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient.
Generally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it.
The conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.
In 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition.
Sources:
https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/
https://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 33 passes in the state's 2024 general election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T20:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29484
|
Will the World Health Organization prequalify moxidectin before 2025?
|
In June 2024, GiveWell made a $637,549 grant to [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/) (MDGH), a not-for-profit pharmaceutical organization focused on developing medicines for neglected diseases in low- and middle-income countries, to complete the World Health Organization’s (WHO’s) prequalification process for moxidectin.
According to [the WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis):
>Onchocerciasis, commonly known as “river blindness”, is caused by the parasitic worm Onchocerca volvulus. It is transmitted to humans through exposure to repeated bites of infected blackflies of the genus Simulium. Symptoms include severe itching, disfiguring skin conditions, and visual impairment, including permanent blindness. More than 99% of infected people live in 31 African countries. The disease also exists in some foci in two countries in Latin America (the Yanomani area in Brazil and Venezuela) and Yemen.
As of September 2024, the WHO [recommends](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/onchocerciasis) annual ivermectin treatments for 10-15 years to treat onchocerciasis. Ivermectin works by killing the larval worms or microfilariae and by temporarily stopping the adult female worms from producing more.
However, ivermectin has some limitations, according to the [WHO](https://iris.who.int/bitstream/handle/10665/367431/9789240071469-eng.pdf), including resistance in some places and adverse reactions among people who also have Loa loa infection. According to the WHO, moxidectin is a safe and effective alternative that is effective for longer and has been shown in trials to reduce skin microfilariae more than in people treated with ivermectin. It may also be a more cost-saving treatment.
In 2018, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [approved](https://tdr.who.int/activities/moxidectin-a-new-drug-for-ntds) moxidectin for treatment of onchocerciasis in individuals 12 years and older, making it the first new drug for onchocerciasis to be approved in the US in 20 years and worldwide in 30 years.
However, the WHO has [unexpectedly required](https://rethinkpriorities.org/publications/priority-review-vouchers) extensive extra clinical trials for moxidectin, casting its near term WHO prequalification (PQ) status into a level of uncertainty. PQ status [would help](https://www.medicinesdevelopment.com/our-work/medicines) get the medicine approved and licensed for usage in many countries. In its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 80% likelihood of moxidectin being prequalified before 2027.
According to the [Global Health Council](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/):
>Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is an independent biopharmaceutical company dedicated to the development of affordable medicines for the people who need them most. MDGH is a not-for-profit company that uses all funds in excess of running costs to develop medicines that address important unmet medical needs but may have limited commercial opportunities.
>In June 2018, the FDA approved moxidectin for the treatment of the Neglected Tropical Disease (NTD) onchocerciasis (also known as river blindness), a devastating and debilitating microfilarial disease that causes intense itching, severe dermatitis and skin depigmentation. As the disease progresses it can also cause blindness, and this condition is the second-most common cause of infectious blindness in the world. 200 million people are estimated to be at risk from this disease, and its elimination is a longstanding goal for the WHO.
See Also:
- Kura et al. (2023) - [Can mass drug administration of moxidectin accelerate onchocerciasis elimination in Africa?](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rstb.2022.0277) (PDF)
- [Prequalification of medicines by WHO](https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/prequalification-of-medicines-by-who)
- Global Health Council's member spotlight page for [Medicines Development for Global Health](https://globalhealth.org/member-spotlight-medicines-development-for-global-health/), Moxidectin's current license holder in the US.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds moxidectin to its prequalification (PQ) list, according to official WHO announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Note that this question resolves **Yes** only if moxidectin achieves PQ approval for the treatment of onchocerciasis. If moxidectin achieves PQ approval for another indication, but not onchocerciasis, this question resolves as **No**.
Although Medicines Development for Global Health (MDGH) is developing moxidectin for potential WHO PQ, this question resolves regardless of which entity achieves the PQ.
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-02T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:19:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29438
|
Will at least three of the five major networks declare a winner in the upcoming US presidential election by noon ET on Nov. 6?
|
Every election from 2004 to 2016 was called before noon on the day after the election. In 2020, it took four days before most networks certified Joe Biden's victory.
Resolution Criteria: For the purposes of this question, the five major networks are NBC, CBS, ABC, CNN and Fox News. To resolve in the affirmative, any three of these five networks must declare a winner by noon ET on Nov. 6.
|
2024-11-01T16:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T01:00:00Z
|
2024-11-06T12:18:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29433
|
Will North Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 5, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [North Dakota Initiated Measure 5, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_5,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if North Dakota Initiated Measure 5 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29432
|
Will Donald Trump outperform Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee in the 2024 election?
|
[Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump receives more votes in the 2024 presidential race in the state of Tennessee than Marsha Blackburn receives in the Senatorial race in that state. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T13:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29431
|
Will Kalshi be #1 in the free apps in the Apple App Store on November 5, 2024?
|
On October 28, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/1851102973738271088), "Alright - this is getting crazy.
Raise your hand if you want a market on who will be #1 in the entire App Store by Nov 5th?"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, on November 5, 2024, according to the Apple App Store at [this link](https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone/top-free-apps/36), on or after November 4, 2024 Kalshi is ranked in #1 overall when accessed by Metaculus Admins. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:36:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29430
|
Will Donald Trump sweep all 7 battleground states in the 2024 election?
|
Newsweek: [Electoral College Map Projector Flips All Battleground States to Donald Trump](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-kamala-harris-polls-swing-states-1971095)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-10T12:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29429
|
Will Hawaii voters approve the constitutional amendment on the ballot in 2024, which would repeal the state's ban on same-sex marriage?
|
Ballotpedia: [Hawaii Remove Legislature Authority to Limit Marriage to Opposite-Sex Couples Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Hawaii_Remove_Legislature_Authority_to_Limit_Marriage_to_Opposite-Sex_Couples_Amendment_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Hawaii Remove Legislature Authority to Limit Marriage to Opposite-Sex Couples Amendment is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29428
|
Will South Dakota voters approve Initiated Measure 29, which would legalize recreational marijuana in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Initiated Measure 29, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Initiated_Measure_29,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if South Dakota Initiated Measure 29 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:28:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29427
|
Will Democratic Congressman Don Davis be re-elected in North Carolina's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [North Carolina's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/North_Carolina%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Davis wins the election to the House of Representatives from North Carolina's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29426
|
Will Republican Congressman Anthony D'Esposito be re-elected in New York's 4th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [New York's 4th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/New_York%27s_4th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Anthony D'Esposito wins the election to the House of Representatives from New York's 4th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T21:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29425
|
Will Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah win 55% or more of the vote in the first round of the Namibian presidential election?
|
Wikipedia: [2024 Namibian general election
](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Namibian_general_election)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah wins greater than or equal to 55.0% of the vote in the 2024 Namibian presidential election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: In case of delayed results, this question will wait until January 1, 2025 for final reported results, at which point it will be **annulled**. Other overturnings of this question's assumptions such as cancelled elections will cause the question to be **annulled**. Please note that this a non-exhaustive list of edge cases that would cause annulment or ambiguous resolutions, and forecasters are encouraged to refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled) in case of any questions.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T19:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29424
|
Will Missouri voters approve Missouri Amendment 7, which would prohibit ranked-choice voting in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Missouri Amendment 7, Require Citizenship to Vote and Prohibit Ranked-Choice Voting Amendment (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Missouri_Amendment_7,_Require_Citizenship_to_Vote_and_Prohibit_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Amendment_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [Missouri Amendment 7](https://www.sos.mo.gov/elections/petitions/2024BallotMeasures) is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29423
|
Will Kevin Stefanski be the Cleveland Browns head coach on January 1, 2025?
|
Cleveland 19 News: [Will Cleveland Browns’ Kevin Stefanski be 1st coach fired this NFL season?](https://www.cleveland19.com/2024/09/12/first-coach-fired/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kevin Stefanski is the head coach of the Cleveland Browns on January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Browns website [coaches roster](https://www.clevelandbrowns.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29376
|
Will Massachusetts voters approve Question 4, which would legalize psychedelic substances for adults 21 years old and older?
|
Ballotpedia: [Massachusetts Question 4, Legalization and Regulation of Psychedelic Substances Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Massachusetts_Question_4,_Legalization_and_Regulation_of_Psychedelic_Substances_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Massachusetts Amendment 4 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29375
|
Will Florida voters approve Amendment 3, which would legalize marijuana for adults 21 years old and older?
|
Ballotpedia: [Florida Amendment 3, Marijuana Legalization Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_3,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Florida Amendment 3 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29374
|
Will Ohio voters approve Ohio Issue 1, which seeks to end gerrymandering in the state?
|
Wikipedia: [2024 Ohio Issue 1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Issue_1)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Ohio Issue 1 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29373
|
Will Democrats be ahead in the generic ballot on Election Day, according to 538?
|
Pew: [Why The Generic Ballot Test?](https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2002/10/01/why-the-generic-ballot-test/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the 538 [generic ballot tracker](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/generic-ballot/2024/) on November 5, 2024, Democrats lead Republicans in voter support for Congress. If it shows as even or shows Republicans are ahead, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Although multiple generic ballot trackers exist, only the one by 538 will be considered for this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T23:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29372
|
Will Democratic Congressman Jared Golden be re-elected in Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [Maine's 2nd Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Maine%27s_2nd_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Jared Golden wins the election to the House of Representatives from Maine's 2nd Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T16:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29371
|
Will Republican Congressman John Duarte be re-elected in California's 13th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [California's 13th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_13th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if John Duarte wins the election to the House of Representatives from California's 13th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T13:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29370
|
Will Oregon voters approve Oregon Measure 117, which would establish ranked-choice voting in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Oregon Measure 117, Ranked-Choice Voting for Federal and State Elections Measure (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Oregon_Measure_117,_Ranked-Choice_Voting_for_Federal_and_State_Elections_Measure_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Oregon Measure 117 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29369
|
Will Alaska voters approve Alaska Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal ranked-choice voting and nonpartisan primaries in the state?
|
Ballotpedia: [Alaska Ballot Measure 2, Repeal Top-Four Ranked-Choice Voting Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Ballot_Measure_2,_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if [Alaska Ballot Measure 2](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Alaska_Ballot_Measure_2) is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-23T16:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29368
|
Will SpaceX re-use a Starship booster before January 1, 2025?
|
SpaceX aims to make the entire [Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) system—both the Super Heavy booster and Starship spacecraft—fully reusable with a rapid turnaround between launches. To that end, SpaceX developed [a way to catch the Super Heavy booster](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-flight-5-launch-super-heavy-booster-catch-success-video), using the launch tower. However, it is still unclear when SpaceX will re-use one of the caught boosters.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, SpaceX successfully launches Starship using a previously flown booster.
Fine Print: - A successful launch is defined as one in which both Starship and booster leave the launchpad under their own power, and the booster separates from Starship at the intended point in flight.
- The booster does not need to be or have been caught by the chopsticks system at any stage. Any re-use of a booster meeting the criteria will result in a **Yes** resolution.
- In cases of ambiguity about the booster’s identity (e.g., because parts of different boosters have been combined), this question will resolve based on [the booster’s serial number](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy#Development).
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29367
|
Will election night 2024 end without Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, or Nate Cohn calling the 2024 presidential election?
|
All three elections analysts are known for calling elections before official media sources such as the AP. For previous AP calls please see: [Here’s when past presidential elections were called](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4954203-heres-when-past-presidential-elections-were-called/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **No** if Dave Wasserman, Nate Silver, and/or Nate Cohn on their Twitter acounts (currently at @Redistrict, @NateSilver538, and @Nate_Cohn, respectively) call the winner of the presidential election before November 6, 2024 at 4:00 AM Eastern. If none has called a winner before that time and date, this question resolves as **Yes**.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, election night is considered to go through 4 AM on Wednesday November 6, 2024.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T17:57:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29366
|
Will Donald Trump says "win," "won," or "winner" on election night?
|
On election night 2020, Donald Trump said the word "won" 15 times; see transcript [here](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlmaKdbC6ZM).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump publicly utters the words "win," "won," or "winner" on the election night 2024, which for purposes of this question is defined as between 8:00 PM Eastern Time and 5:00 AM Eastern Time. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Determination of whether he has said these words will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-31T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T19:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29320
|
Will Joe Rogan endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?
|
Joe Rogan endorsed RFK Jr. following RFK Jr.'s appearance on the Rogan podcast. There are [reports](https://www.essentiallysports.com/ufc-mma-news-joe-rogan-finally-admits-his-curiosity-for-donald-trump-podcast-amid-demand-for-jre-episode/) that Trump may appear on the Rogan podcast, amid increasing praise from Rogan in recent weeks, combined with more criticism for Kamala Harris.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Joe Rogan endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:46:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29319
|
In the 2024 US elections, will the party winning the White House differ from the party winning the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the political party winning control of the House of Representives differs from the party of the individual who wins the presidential election in the 2024 US elections.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T14:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29318
|
In the 2024 US elections, will Republicans win both the White House and the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Republican Party wins control of the House of Representives and if the individual who wins the presidential election is the nominee of the Republican Party in the 2024 US elections.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections. In case of any confusion or ambiguity about which party wins the House, the deciding factor will be which party has a majority of the votes required to elect the Speaker of the House.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T14:20:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29317
|
In the 2024 US elections, will Democrats win both the White House and the House of Representatives?
|
The 2024 US elections will be held on November 5, 2024. See Wikipedia: [2024 United States elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_elections)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party wins control of the House of Representives and if the individual who wins the presidential election is the nominee of the Democratic Party in the 2024 US elections.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections. In case of any confusion or ambiguity about which party wins the House, the deciding factor will be which party has a majority of the votes required to elect the Speaker of the House.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29316
|
Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2025?
|
Many AI experts worry about powerful AI getting into the hands of bad actors—those who might use such powerful AI to cause damage or for personal gain that inflicts costs on others—via hacking. A bad actor might be a black hat hacker, a terrorist group, or a rogue state.
One way to decrease the chance of this type of hacking succeeding is for those building powerful AI, the leading AI labs, to have strong cybersecurity measures in place. Given how high the stakes might be (see, e.g., “[AI risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/ai-risk)”), policymakers may decide to not bank on AI labs attaining strong enough cybersecurity by default.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, there is a federal law which requires all U.S. actors in possession of AI models fitting certain criteria to take measures to secure those models. The law must be designed to promote security of powerful models, rather than, for example, models that might compromise individuals' privacy if stolen. If necessary, this will be decided by a judging panel made up of the Metaculus AI Forecasting team, or, failing that (e.g., because the AI Forecasting team no longer exists), at least 3 Metaculus admins: the judging panel would consider the stated intent of those who proposed the initial version of the bill.
Fine Print: There may well be overlap between the most powerful models and the models that most compromise privacy. For this question’s resolution, what matters is whether the law is _intended_ to secure _powerful_ models.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T23:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29315
|
Will Donald Trump outperform Rick Scott in Florida in the 2024 election?
|
[Senate Republican candidates are trailing Donald Trump](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/09/15/senate-election-trump-republicans/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump receives more votes in the 2024 presidential race in the state of Florida than Rick Scott receives in the Senatorial race in that state. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T23:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29314
|
Will Kamala Harris win New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Maine in the 2024 election?
|
On journalist Mark Halperin's political discussion show [Two-Way on October 25, 2024](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kE-GYg9lD5Y), the panel mentioned that the biggest possible states for a Trump upset were New Mexico, New Hampshire, Maine, and Virginia.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris wins the popular vote in New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia, and Maine, in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:09:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29313
|
Will the same presidential candidate win Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 election?
|
[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the same candidate wins the popular vote in Michigan and Wisconsin in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T13:37:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29312
|
Will Donald Trump win Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 election?
|
[Election Forecast Correlations](https://roadtolarissa.com/forecast-correlation/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the popular vote in Arizona and Georgia in the 2024 presidential election. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-10T12:32:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29311
|
Will a European Union ban into non-commercial internal combustion engines take effect before January 1, 2025?
|
Currently, the European Union plans on [banning new petrol and diesel cars from 2035](https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20221019STO44572/eu-ban-on-sale-of-new-petrol-and-diesel-cars-from-2035-explained).
However, the last EU election resulted in [record seats for far-right parties and collapse of green parties](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/10/european-election-results-a-more-conservative-parliament-under-pressure-from-far-right_6674360_4.html); and [the current biggest EU lawmaker group](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/biggest-eu-lawmaker-group-wants-2035-combustion-car-ban-revised-draft-shows-2024-07-02/) and [some countries and carmakers](https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/09/25/italy-germany-join-carmakers-in-call-to-rethink-internal-combustion-engine-ban) are trying to allow carbon-neutral fuel and petrol cars, with technical measures to not work with normal petrol and gas, to continue to be sold after the ban.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the sale of internal combustion engines to individual, non-commercial customers is no longer allowed in any country of the European Union before January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: - The ban must cover all combustion engines that rely on fuels that emit CO2 on combustion, including carbon-neutral diesel. Combustion engines relying on fuels that do not produce CO2 when burned, such as hyrdogen combustion engines, do not need to be banned.
- If exceptions to this ban exist, they must permit vehicles that constituted less than 5% of the total non-commercial vehicle sales in the EU during the previous calendar year.
- If more than half of the European Union member countries leave the EU, or countries representing more than half the EU population in January 2024 leave the EU, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T19:55:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29310
|
Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for Marburg virus disease before January 1, 2025?
|
According to CDC, "The Republic of Rwanda has confirmed several cases of Marburg virus disease (Marburg) in hospitals around the country, including some deaths. This is the country's first Marburg virus outbreak.
Marburg is a rare but severe hemorrhagic fever, similar to Ebola, that can cause serious illness and death.
Currently, there are no cases of Marburg in the United States and the risk of infection with this virus in the United States is low."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for Marburg virus disease, in a declaration made before January 1, 2025. The resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page.
If there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for Marburg virus disease within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:13:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29309
|
Will a woman be named the Time Person of the Year for 2024?
|
Wikipedia: [Time Person of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_Person_of_the_Year)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a woman is named as the sole Person of the Year by Time. If Time names more than one individual, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For example, when Kamala Harris was named Person of the Year with Joe Biden in 2020, it would not have counted, since this question requires a woman to be the sole winner.
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-12T14:28:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29277
|
Will country music singer/songwriter Riley Green endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?
|
Riley Green is notable for being a conservative musician according to articles such as [this](https://www.hollywoodintoto.com/conservative-musicians-worth-a-listen/), though he has not made any endorsements in 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if musician Riley Green endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T13:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29276
|
Before November 5, 2024, will Kalshi ever show Donald Trump with a 70% chance of winning?
|
Kalshi began election trading in the US presidential election on October 4, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kalshi, at [this link](https://kalshi.com/markets/pres/presidential-elections), ever shows Donald Trump with a 70% chance of winning for any day before November 5, 2024. If this event does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T20:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29275
|
Will Montana voters approve CI-128, which would add the right to abortion to the state's constitution?
|
Ballotpedia: [Montana CI-128, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Montana_CI-128,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Montana CI-128 is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T19:35:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29274
|
Will Mayor Brandon Scott receive 70% of the vote in the 2024 Baltimore mayoral race?
|
From Wikipedia: "The 2024 Baltimore mayoral election will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect the mayor of Baltimore, Maryland. Incumbent Brandon Scott was first elected in 2020 with 70.5% of the vote and is running for re-election to a second term.[1] Scott was considered vulnerable, as polls found that Baltimore residents were split on his performance as mayor.[2] He faced criticism for his handling of important issues in the city, including schools, constituent services, and crime.[3] However, Scott's response to the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse, as well as his progress in growing the economy and reducing homicides, allowed him to make inroads with voters and boost his approval rating.[4][5] Scott defeated former mayor Sheila Dixon in the Democratic primary, a result that is considered tantamount to victory in the heavily Democratic city.[6] His path to victory involved running up massive margins in Baltimore's majority-white precincts while running close to Dixon in its majority-Black areas."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Brandon Scott receives greater than or equal to 70.00% of the vote in the 2024 Baltimore mayoral election. If he does not meet this threshold for any reason (including Scott dropping out of the race), this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T12:56:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29273
|
Will Democratic Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo be re-elected in Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [Colorado's 8th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado%27s_8th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Yadira Caraveo wins the election to the House of Representatives from Colorado's 8th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T19:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29272
|
Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for seventh, specifically through model "Meta-Llama-3.1-405b-Instruct-bf16".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "llama" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T22:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29271
|
Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for for fourth, specifically through its model "Grok-2-08-13".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "grok" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T22:36:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29270
|
Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked as tied seventh, specifically through its model "Claude 3.5 Sonnet".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "claude" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T22:34:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29269
|
Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for fourth, specifically through its model "Gemini-1.5-Pro-Exp-0827".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "gemini" is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T22:33:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29268
|
Will an OpenAI model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 4th Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 30, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with models "chatgpt-4o-latest" and "o1-preview".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model owned by OpenAI is in the number 1 overall rank (ties count) at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 1, 2025. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T22:31:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29266
|
Will Revolut officially announce it is launching a stablecoin, before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Bloomberg](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-revolut-explore-joining-170-170622285.html), "Companies from Robinhood Markets Inc. to Revolut Ltd. are considering launching stablecoins, betting that stricter regulations in Europe and elsewhere will finally loosen Tether Holdings Ltd.’s grip on the rapidly expanding $170 billion digital-asset sector.... A Revolut spokesperson said the company plans to “further grow” its crypto product suite, without confirming a future stablecoin."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Revolut Ltd announces at its News & Media site, which can be accessed through [this link](https://www.revolut.com/news/), that it is launching its own stablecoin. If there is no such announcement posted at that link before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Revolut's news page will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T20:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29265
|
Will CDC’s highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public before January 1, 2025, be "Low"?
|
In evolving situations, subject-matter experts at CDC sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/index.html) to the general public of the United States. Normally this is done by CDC's [Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics](https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/index.html) (CFA), although it is unclear at the time of this question whether CFA has made such an analysis with respect to H5. CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from "Extremely Low" to "Very High." As of CDC’s most recent [situation summary](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), dated October 18, 2024:
>While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.
>Current public health risk: Low
Below are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by the CFA to assess likelihood and impact of infections. These are provided for reference. Not only is it unclear whether CFA is specifically going to be the team within CDC doing the risk assessment with H5, but CDC may change these definitions, and this question asks about overall risk and not sub-categories of risk.
>### Definitions
> #### Likelihood of infection definitions
> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.
> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.
> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.
> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.
> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.
> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.
> #### Impact of infection definitions
> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.
> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.
> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.
> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.
> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the highest level of current public health risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) before January 1, 2025, at its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) tracker or at a similar page at its website, is **Low**.
Fine Print: The question resolves based on the overall public health risk level stated by the CDC for the United States. Sub-categories of risk (if any) are not considered for resolution. For example, the CDC offering a community level risk assessment of Moderate would not count, nor would sub-categories such as likelihood and impact listed [here](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses "Very High" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as *High (or above, such as Very High)*.
The question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document posted at cdc.gov is necessary.
Although this question assumes CDC will use risk categories for H5 according to the Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics' [Qualitative Risk Assessments](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) (last updated August 5, 2024), if CDC introduces new risk categories for H5 than the ones listed, Metaculus will resolve the question based on the closest equivalent, according to a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#rescouncil) of Admins.
This question asks for the highest assessment of the risk posed by H5 bird flu to the US general public. Therefore in cases in which the CDC offers a range, the question resolves as the high part of the range. For example if a current public health risk of "Low to Moderate" is given, this question resolves as **Moderate**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29264
|
Will the World Health Organization designate a new COVID-19 Variant of Concern before January 1, 2025?
|
The WHO tracks SARS-CoV-2 variants using [three main classifications](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-variants-of-sars-cov-2):
A **Variant Under Monitoring (VUM)** is, according to WHO, one that may require prioritized attention and monitoring. The main objective of this category is to investigate if this variant (and others closely related to it) may pose an additional threat to global public health as compared to other circulating variants." At the time of this question, there were two VUMs: BA.2.86 and JN.1.
A **Variant of Interest (VOI)** is a variant with changes that "are known to affect how the virus behaves or its potential impact on human health. This can include, for example, its ability to spread, its ability to cause serious disease, or how easily it may be detected or treated." At the time of this question, there were 7 VOIs: JN.1.7 KP.2,
KP.3, KP.3.1.1, JN.1.18, LB.1, and XEC.
A **Variant of Concern (VOC)** is, according to the [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated March 15, 2023:
>A SARS-CoV-2 variant that meets the definition of a VOI (see above) and, through a risk assessment, conducted by WHO TAG-VE, and determined to be associated with a moderate or high level of confidence, meets at least one of the following criteria when compared with other variants:
>• Detrimental change in clinical disease severity; OR
>• Change in COVID-19 epidemiology causing substantial impact on the ability of health systems to provide care to patients with COVID-19 or other illnesses and therefore requiring major public health interventions; OR
>• Significant decrease in the effectiveness of available vaccines in protecting against severe
disease.
At the time of this question, there are no currently circulating WHO-designated VOCs. Previously circulating VOCs (see archive [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20221005140711/https://www.who.int/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants)) are:
| WHO label | Pango lineage | GISAID clade | Nextstrain clade | Additional amino acid changes monitored | Earliest documented samples | Date of designation |
| --------- | ------------- | ------------ | ---------------- | --------------------------------------- | -------------------------- | ------------------- |
| **Alpha** | B.1.1.7 | GRY | 20I (V1) | | United Kingdom, Sep-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |
| **Beta** | B.1.351 | GH/501Y.V2 | 20H (V2) | | South Africa, May-2020 | VOC: 18-Dec-2020 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |
| **Gamma** | P.1 | GR/501Y.V3 | 20J (V3) | | Brazil, Nov-2020 | VOC: 11-Jan-2021 (Previous VOC: 09-Mar-2022) |
| **Delta** | B.1.617.2 | G/478K.V1 | 21A, 21I, 21J | | India, Oct-2020 | VOI: 4-Apr-2021 (VOC: 11-May-2021) (Previous VOC: 7-Jun-2022) |
| **Omicron** | B.1.1.529 | GR/484A | 21K, 21L, 21M, 22A, 22B, 22C, 22D | +S:R346K (+S:L452X) (+S:F486V) | Multiple countries, Nov-2021 | VUM: 24-Nov-2021 (VOC: 26-Nov-2021) |
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 21, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the World Health Organization (WHO) adds a new SARS-CoV-2 variant to their list of Variants of Concern that was not previously identified as a VOC at any point, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as the WHO's [SARS-CoV-2 variants](https://www.who.int/en/activities/tracking-SARS-CoV-2-variants/) tracker page or its [COVID-19 Variants Dashboard](https://data.who.int/dashboards/covid19/variants).
If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: This question will also resolve as Yes if
- A new variant is classified using a new classification that is synonymous to the WHO's [working definition](https://www.who.int/publications/m/item/updated-working-definitions-and-primary-actions-for--sars-cov-2-variants) last updated October 4, 2023, or
- A new variant is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29263
|
Will the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024, to January 4, 2025, be below 2.0?
|
As of the end of September 2024, the dominant COVID variant in the United States [was](https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/in-2-weeks-xec-jumps-from-5th-to-2nd-most-dominant-covid-variant.html) KP.3.1.1, with XEC having risen from 5th place to 2nd place in just two weeks. Nationally, wastewater detection of viral activity for COVID-19 was remained low, with the exception of Montana, Oregon, and 14 other states. The general trend since mid August was a decline in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. Bill Hanage, epidemiologist at Harvard’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/xec-covid-variant-contagious-will-updated-vaccines-work-rcna172921) on September 27, 2024, that there was no evidence yet that XEC was significantly more transmissable than previous variants.
The week ended September 28, 2024, had the lowest hospitalization rate of the corresponding week since the pandemic began. Those rates were:
- September 26, 2020: 4.3 per 100,000 population
- September 25, 2021: 9.9
- October 1, 2022: 6.0
- September 30, 2023: 4.6
- September 28, 2024: 3.2
The monitoring and data sharing tool RESP-NET is [described](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/index.html) by CDC as follows:
>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) monitors laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with influenza, COVID-19, and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) among children and adults.
At the moment its COVID-19 data comes from the COVID-NET interactive dashboard. According [to CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html):
>COVID-NET currently comprises 185 counties and county equivalents in the 13 states participating in the Respiratory Virus Surveillance Network. It covers more than 34 million people and includes an estimated 10% of the U.S. population. The COVID-NET surveillance area is generally similar to the U.S. population by demographics; however, COVID-NET data might not be generalizable to the entire country.
The underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy/about_data).
CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics updated its [2024-2025 Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/season-outlook24-25/index.html) on August 29, 2024. With moderate confidence, CDC projected a peak hospitalization rate similar to or lower than last year's. CDC assumes that new variants this winter will be similar to last winter and that vaccines will have similar performance and usage. With COVID hospitalizations continuing to decline at the time of this question, insights on what the *lowest* hospitalization rate for COVID might be in the fourth quarter of 2024 could support CDC's modeling assumptions and help with predicting the trajectory.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if the lowest weekly rate of hospital admissions per 100,000 people for COVID-19 between the weeks ending October 5, 2024, and January 4, 2025, (inclusive) is below 2.0, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/resp-net/dashboard/). The CDC uses "epidemiological weeks" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters.
To allow for data revisions and reporting delays, the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the figure for January 4, 2025, is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week’s end date.
Fine Print: * The following filters will be selected:
* **Chart Selection:** "Season"
* **View:** "Weekly Rates"
* **Season:** "2024-25" (or whichever selections will encompass the dates in question)
* **Pathogen:** "COVID-19" (Note that you can also filter to show Flu, RSV, and Combined. Regardless, only the value corresponding to the listed pathogen will be used.)
* This question is asking about the minimum weekly rate, the lowest value reached during the specified period.
* In the event the data reporting is missing for more than two of the weeks included in the period when the question is expected to resolve, the backup resolution source will be [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/covid/php/covid-net/index.html). In the event of both resolution sources being unavailable for the time, the question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29262
|
Will an H5 virus receive an "emergence" risk rating categorized as "high" by the US CDC Influenza Risk Assessment Tool before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html):
>The Influenza Risk Assessment Tool (IRAT) is an evaluation tool developed by CDC and external influenza experts that assesses the potential pandemic risk posed by influenza A viruses that currently circulate in animals but not in humans.
The IRAT evaluates with respect to potential public health impact and emergence--the latter of which is defined as the potential to start spreading easily and efficiently in people, and is the factor that this question asks. To assess this potential for sustained human-to-human spread, researchers examine the following risk elements:
- Human infections
- Transmission in animal models
- Receptor binding
- Population immunity
- Infections in animals
- Genomic analysis
- Antigenic relatedness
- Global distribution of animals
- Disease severity and pathogenesis
As of August 9, 2024, the [published IRAT](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) potential emergence risk scores ranged from less than 3 (low risk) to 7.5 (upper moderate), The 7.5 was for a strain of H1N1, a Eurasian avian-like swine influenza A(H1N1) (A/swine/Shandong/1207/2016) virus, clade 1C.2.3 and genotype 4. Please see the full H1N1 Virus Report from July of 2020 [here](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/CDC-IRAT-Virus-Report.pdf). The latest H5N1 IRAT emergence risk score is 5.79 from a [Virus Report](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/media/pdfs/2024/08/IRATATexas.pdf) published [August 9, 2024](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/monitoring/irat-virus-summaries.htm) and based on information through June 26, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the Centers for Disease Controls' [Influenza Risk Assessment Tool](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/monitoring/virus-description.html) (IRAT) provides a weighted risk of potential emergence score characterized as *high* for any H5 influenza virus. This [is defined](https://www.cdc.gov/pandemic-flu/php/national-strategy/influenza-risk-assessment-tool.html) as a score greater than or equal to 8.0. If this does not occur before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The IRAT currently has the following risk levels with respect to its scores (on a 10-point scale):
>Low risk is associated with a point score between 1.0 and 3.9;
>Moderate risk is associated with a point score between 4.0-7.9; and,
>High risk is associated with a point score between 8.0-10.0.
If the IRAT's scoring methodology changes, this question resolves based on the mathematically equivalent scores. Should it stop using numerical scores, the question resolves based on whether the new terminology corresponds with the current "high" risk categorization.
An individual "risk element" receiving a score of 8.0 or above does not qualify, only the overall weighted risk of potential emergence score qualifies.
|
2024-10-28T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-29T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29242
|
[Short fuse] Will California's Proposition 33 (allowing rent control) pass in the 2024 general election?
|
Proposition 33 ([Ballotpedia](https://ballotpedia.org/California_Proposition_33,_Prohibit_State_Limitations_on_Local_Rent_Control_Initiative_(2024))) will appear on the state-wide ballot in California for the US General Election on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. It will pass if a simple majority who vote on the measure approve it. Since this question will be decided by popular vote, this question essentially asks whether sentiment in California had shifted since the post-Covid housing crisis on whether voters would be inclined to favor rent control. This might be a bellwether on popular attitudes on the housing crisis and progressive sentiment in the United States where people demand the government to take proactive measures to address certain social problems.
Proposition 33 would repeal the Costa-Hawkins Rental Housing Act of 1995, which prevents local governments from enacting rent control on homes built after 1995 or if the tenants move out. Essentially, Proposition 33 will empower local governments to have more available courses of action to reduce rents. Governor Gavin Newsom passed a law in 2019 that capped rent increase in California to 5 percent plus the rate of inflation or a maximum of 10 percent. However, proponents of Proposition 33 argue that this is insufficient.
Generally, tenant advocates support Proposition 33, while landlord interest groups are bankrolling the campaign against it.
The conventional wisdom among economists is that rent control will lower the supply of housing since it reduces the profit incentive for developers to produce more housing.
In 2020, Proposition 21 was on the ballot, which would authorize cities to enact rent control ordinances. The Proposition only received 40.1 percent approval out of the votes of voted on the proposition.
Sources:
https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/10/prop-33-2024-fact-check/
https://calmatters.org/election-2020-guide/proposition-21-rent-control/
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if California Proposition 33 passes in the state's 2024 general election, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the ballot measure passes. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-05T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T01:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29212
|
Will Republican Congressman David Schweikert be re-elected in Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 1st Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_1st_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if David Schweikert wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona's 1st Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T14:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29210
|
At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Venezuela as "currently" blocking access to Twitter/X?
|
According to the resolution source, "On August 8, 2024, President Nicolás Maduro announced a ban on access to Twitter for ten days amid anti-government protests, citing incitations of hatred, fascism and civil war.[124] The ban was subsequently extended for an indefinite period.[125]"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocking Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29209
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before January 1, 2025?
|
According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30, 2024, and before January 1, 2025 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before January 1, 2025, as long as the announcement is made before then.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T19:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29208
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before December 1, 2024?
|
According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30, 2024, and before December 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before December 1, 2024, as long as the announcement is made before then.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T18:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29207
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before November 1, 2024?
|
According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on September 19, 2024, after a few years of relatively higher and rising interest rates. Previous cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019.
The September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after September 30, 2024, and before November 1, 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.
The primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.
Fine Print: This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before November 1, 2024, as long as the announcement is made before then.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T19:51:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29206
|
Will Mike McCarthy be the Dallas Cowboys head coach on January 1, 2025?
|
The Sporting News: [Will Cowboys fire Mike McCarthy? Why embattled coach is on hot seat after Dallas starts 1-2](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-cowboys-fire-mike-mccarthy-coach-hot-seat/3ff1abbba7137a60366b2851)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if on January 1, 2025, Mike McCarthy is the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.dallascowboys.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T12:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29205
|
Will the Russian government officially ban YouTube before January 1, 2025?
|
As Moscow has cracked down on independent Russian-language media since the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, YouTube has remained a key platform for opposition figures and dissenting voices. However, recent reports of mass outages and slowdowns of the video-sharing platform in Russia have raised concerns about its future in the country.
Russian lawmakers have [blamed Google](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/youtube-slowdown-russia-darkens-freedom-speech-outlook-2024-08-08/), which owns YouTube, for failing to upgrade its equipment in Russia since the invasion, leading to the slowdown that started in mid-July 2024. They claim that the degradation of service is a necessary step to persuade YouTube to reinstate blocked Russian channels. However, Google and technology experts dispute this explanation.
A recent [Russian-language article](https://news.ru/russia/kogda-youtube-zarabotaet-normalno-v-rossii-chto-dlya-etogo-nuzhno/) discussed how this ban could still be in the works (translated by Google Translate):
>According to the chairman of the Digital Economy Development Fund, German Klimenko, YouTube will be blocked in Russia in three to five months.
>"I think that testing is underway. YouTube's fate is probably predetermined, and it is similar to Instagram's fate (operations are prohibited in the Russian Federation). I would assume that YouTube will hang around for three to five months, and then be blocked," he said in a conversation with [aif.ru](https://aif.ru/society/web/-sudba-youtube-reshena-german-klimenko-o-durove-youtube-i-ii-v-seti).
Additionally:
>Deputy Speaker of the State Duma of the Russian Federation Boris Chernyshov told NEWS.ru that large-scale work is currently underway to increase the capacity of Russian video hosting sites: Rutube, VK video and others, which should replace the American video hosting.
>"This can be seen from the strong advertising campaign of domestic services. And due to the decline in the quality of the YouTube service, which is currently working intermittently, many bloggers, presenters, and authors have begun to transfer their content to Russian platforms and duplicate all new releases there by default," Chernyshov said.
However, Chernyshov subsequently [said](https://lenta.ru/news/2024/09/21/deputat-ob-yasnil-zayavlenie-o-polnoy-blokirovke-youtube-v-rossii/) he was misquoted.
As tensions between Russia and YouTube continue to escalate, this question aims to assess whether the Russian government will take the drastic step of officially banning the platform before January 1, 2025.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the Russian government or its official agencies (e.g., Roskomnadzor, explained in the Fine Print) announce a complete ban on access to YouTube within Russia or implement technical measures that effectively block the platform nationwide. The resolution source will be the agencies themselves and/or reporting by other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
The question will resolve as **No** if YouTube remains accessible in Russia, even with occasional slowdowns or regional outages, and no official ban is announced or implemented by the Russian government before January 1, 2025.
Fine Print: - The ban must be officially announced or implemented by the Russian government or its agencies. Statements by individual lawmakers or unofficial sources will not be considered for resolution.
- Temporary or partial restrictions on YouTube, such as the blocking of specific channels or videos, will not count as a ban unless they effectively prevent access to the entire platform in Russia.
- The announcement of the intention to ban YouTube is enough to resolve this question as Yes even if no specific implementation date is mentioned.
With Roskomnadzor, the state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. (Please note that the blocklist might not be accessible outside of Russia and a few neighbouring countries without the use of a VPN.)
If the message returned is: "доступ ограничивается к странице" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.
If the message returned is: "По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is not included in the blocklist and this question resolves as No, as long as there are no other credible sources reporting an announcement or implementation of a ban.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T20:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29204
|
Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):
>On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $14.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania [...].
>The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.
>On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal "instantaneously" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.
CFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occur before the merger deal between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel has been fulfilled:
- The sitting U.S. President issues an executive order blocking the deal
- U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel jointly announce the deal's cancellation
- Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel unilaterally terminates the deal
- Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.
If none of these have occurred before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Subsequent legal actions (e.g., lawsuits appealing an executive order) do not affect the resolution of this question.
Fine Print: The CFIUS recommendation does not directly impact the resolution of this question, even if the CFIUS recommends blocking the deal, as it lacks enforcement authority.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29203
|
Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?
|
China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.
The announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.
China's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2025, the Chinese government or any of its official agencies (e.g., Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs) publicly announces (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) new export restrictions or controls on any metals not previously subject to such measures as of September 29, 2024.
The question will resolve as "No" if no such announcement is made by the Chinese government or its agencies before January 1, 2025, according to any credible source reporting that can be found.
Fine Print: - The announcement must be an official statement from the Chinese government or its agencies and must clearly indicate the imposition of new export restrictions or controls on specific metals.
- If China announces the intention to impose new export restrictions or controls on a metal but does not provide a specific implementation date, the question will resolve as "Yes" if the announcement is made before January 1, 2025.
- Amendments or extensions of existing export restrictions on metals will not count towards a "Yes" resolution unless they substantially expand the scope or severity of the controls. In case of any ambiguity in such cases, a panel of Metaculus Admins will make a ruling.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29202
|
Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?
|
[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.
Following [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.
Eric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign.
A [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no credible reports or official announcements of the resignation or removal of Eric Adams from the position of the Mayor of New York City before the 1st of January, 2025.
Fine Print: The suspension of the mayor by the governor is not sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the mayor is suspended at the time of resolution.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T01:02:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29201
|
Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?
|
The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 15, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, at least one Member of the UK Parliament gets suspended from their party, resigns, or changes their allegiance, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: - Any change of allegiance, voluntary or not, will resolve this question as **Yes**, including but not limited to an independent MP becoming a member of a party.
- Only party allegiance is relevant for this question. An MP joining or leaving a technical group will not affect resolution in any way.
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-26T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T17:58:22Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29183
|
Will Kelly Ayotte win the New Hampshire gubernatorial election in 2024?
|
Kelly Ayotte, a former U.S. Senator from New Hampshire, is running in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election. As a Republican candidate with a significant political background, she has a strong presence in the state’s political landscape. However, New Hampshire’s gubernatorial elections can be competitive, with potential shifts in voter preferences based on national and local issues.
Ayotte’s campaign will be shaped by various factors, including her previous experience, her stance on key issues affecting New Hampshire, and the dynamics of the 2024 national election. The state's electorate has historically been known for being politically independent, with voters who are willing to swing between parties.
This question asks whether Kelly Ayotte will secure victory in the 2024 New Hampshire gubernatorial election, with results expected shortly after Election Day.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if Kelly Ayotte is winning according to AP at the stated resolution time.
The question will resolve as "No" if:
Kelly Ayotte loses the election to another candidate at the time of resolution time.
|
2024-10-24T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T23:02:00Z
|
2024-11-07T22:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29181
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election be called before 5:00 PM on 11/7/2024?
|
The Associated Press (AP) has historically been one of the most trusted and widely cited news organizations in the United States when it comes to officially declaring election results. In previous elections, the AP has made its call once a candidate has secured a sufficient number of electoral votes, based on reliable data from the states' vote counts.
The timing of when AP calls the election can vary significantly. In 2020, due to an increase in mail-in voting and delays in counting, the AP called the race on Saturday, November 7, after several days of counting in key swing states. In contrast, in earlier elections, such as 2016, the race was called late in the evening on Election Day.
This question asks whether the AP will officially declare a winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024. The increasing prevalence of early voting and the potential for tight races in battleground states may impact the timing of the result. If the race is too close to call in certain states or if there are delays in counting votes, this could extend the timeframe before a winner is announced.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if the Associated Press (AP) officially declares the winner of the 2024 U.S. presidential election before 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024.
The AP "calling" the election refers to their official announcement of the presidential candidate who has secured enough electoral votes to win the election, regardless of whether all states have completed counting their votes. The announcement must be public and clearly indicate the winning candidate.
The question will resolve as "No" if:
The AP has not called the election by 5:00 PM EST on November 7, 2024.
No winner is declared by the AP due to delays, legal disputes, recounts, or other reasons.
The timing of when AP calls the election will be based on public reports from the AP's website or official communications, such as on their Twitter account or through other major news organizations citing the AP.
Sources other than AP (e.g., other media outlets or news services) will not be considered in the resolution of this question.
|
2024-10-24T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T22:55:00Z
|
2024-11-07T22:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29180
|
What is the probability that the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) will report on student response to the outcome of the 2024 presidential election (either negative or positive) by 2:00 PM EST on 11/7?
|
BDH is the Brown Daily Herald: https://www.browndailyherald.com/
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if an article is published by the Brown Daily Herald (BDH) by 2:00 PM EST on [insert date], reporting on student responses to the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
A "student response" is defined as any collective or individual reaction from students regarding the election results. This can include informal gatherings, demonstrations of sentiment, or other expressions of reaction from students, either positive or negative.
The question will resolve as "No" if:
No article is published by BDH by the specified time.
The article does not mention student responses to the election outcome.
The article only contains interviews or isolated individual opinions without describing broader student reactions.
Ex: Students gather in Sayles hall to watch live election results - does not resolve yes
Ex: Students in Sayles hall celebrate after the election is called for Harris - resolves yes
Fine Print: Question may be annulled if it is unclear which of the above happened.
|
2024-10-24T22:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T23:00:00Z
|
2024-11-07T22:42:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29176
|
What is the probability that Jon Tester be re-elected to the Montana Senate?
|
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/oct/21/montana-senate-race-jon-tester-democrats
Resolution Criteria: based on what is reported by AP
|
2024-10-24T18:34:00Z
|
2024-11-07T19:20:00Z
|
2024-11-07T22:42:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29170
|
Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before January 1, 2025?
|
After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was "listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed.
The protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors.
See Also
- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />
- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />
- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before January 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**.
If Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.
In cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29168
|
Before Election Day, will Kamala Harris appear on the Joe Rogan podcast?
|
Newsweek: [Joe Rogan Ridicules Donald Trump, Says Kamala Harris Is 'Nailing It'](https://www.newsweek.com/joe-rogan-donald-trump-kamala-harris-nailing-it-1955173)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before November 5, 2024, Kamala Harris appears on the Joe Rogan podcast, listed on the podcast episodes page [here](https://open.spotify.com/show/4rOoJ6Egrf8K2IrywzwOMk) in an episode more recent than episode #2212.
Fine Print: "Appears" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing next to the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T17:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29167
|
Before Election Day, will Donald Trump appear on the Call Her Daddy podcast?
|
Vulture: [Alex Cooper Invited Trump on Call Her Daddy, Too](https://www.vulture.com/article/call-her-daddy-kamala-harris-trump-invited.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes if before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump appears on the Call Her Daddy podcast, listed on the podcast episodes page [here](https://open.spotify.com/show/7bnjJ7Va1nM07Um4Od55dW) in an episode more recent than the October 11, 2024, episode.
Fine Print: "Appears" is defined simply as the individual's described as appearing on the episode in the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T17:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29165
|
Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on December 31, 2024?
|
On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area.
[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast).
Ukraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:
>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.
>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.
Please see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on December 31, 2024:
48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
If this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)
2. Scroll down to the interactive map.
3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.
4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E
This question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:
- Assessed Russian Control
- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine
- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine
This question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:
- Areas with no coloration
- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.
Fine Print: * The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.
* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for "48°35'13.7"N 37°50'02.1"E".
- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T00:41:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29164
|
Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before January 1, 2025?
|
The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).
[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.
Nonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.
The removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).
Resolution Criteria: The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before January 1, 2025, for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.
The abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.
Fine Print: Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T20:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29163
|
Will JD Vance cease to be Donald Trump's running mate before November 5, 2024?
|
On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if JD Vance ceases to be the Republican Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before November 5, 2024. If this does not happen, this question resolves as No.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-07T18:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29162
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up in November 2024?
|
The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the final trading day of November 2024 is higher than that of the final trading day of October 2024.
Fine Print: The "close" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-29T21:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29161
|
On October 31, 2024, will VoteHub's Early Voting Tracker show Democrats having 2/3rd or higher of the mail and absentee ballots returned in Pennsylvania?
|
VoteHub [describes itself](https://about.votehub.us/) as "an election media organization that aims to provide top-notch, innovative coverage in three key areas: election reporting at a detailed level and in real time, public opinion survey aggregations, and analysis on election results and trends. We are nonpartisan and independent."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the VoteHub Project's Early Voting Tracker, which can be accessed [here](https://projects.votehub.us/pages/early-voting-tracker), with the page for Pennsylvania selected, at least 66.7% of the ballot returns shown in the state were from voters registered as Democrats, when the page is accessed by Metaculus on or after October 31, 2024. If it the number does not meet that threshold, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. In case of the resolution source being down, Metaculus Admins will wait until November 4, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T20:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29160
|
Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?
|
Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker "A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs," which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/11/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before December 31, 2024. To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on December 31, 2024, and see if Google or Alphabet appears for October 2024, November 2024, or December 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.
For ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.
According to Tech Crunch, "Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly." Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:45:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29159
|
Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before January 1, 2025?
|
Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.
After the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.
The Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.
[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),
> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.
> ...
> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.
Resolution Criteria: Resolves as Yes if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-25T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T19:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29145
|
Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?
|
Another new COVID variant is rapidly [growing](https://www.goerie.com/story/news/2024/10/22/what-is-covid-19-variant-xec-spreading-in-pennsylvania/75794702007/) in the United States, the XEC variant, which is estimated at 10.7% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending October 12, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). This this is a sharp increase from the previous two-week period when it was 2.3%, though still a distant second to KP.3.1.1, a [descendant](https://www.yalemedicine.org/news/3-things-to-know-about-xec-the-latest-covid-strain) of the FLiRT variants, which is at 57.2% according to the Nowcast (41.2% as of the latest weighted estimate). Results from [one recent study](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2024.10.16.618773v1) "suggest that XEC has the potential to outcompete the other major lineage including KP.3.1.1."
At the time of this question, CDC estimates variant proportions using two-week periods, using two different calculations: weighted estimates and Nowcast estimates. According [to CDC](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions):
>Weighted estimates (provided for all two-week periods except the most recent two, two-week periods) are variant proportions that are based on empirical (observed) genomic sequencing data. These estimates are not available for the most recent two-week periods because of the time it takes to generate the sequencing data, including sample collection, specimen treatment, shipping, analysis, and upload into public databases.
>Lineages with weighted estimates less than 1% of all circulating variants are combined with their parent lineage. When the weighted estimate of a lineage crosses the 1% threshold and has substitutions in the spike protein that could affect vaccine efficacy, transmission, or severity, it may be separated from its parent lineage and displayed on its own in the variant proportions data.
In contrast:
>Nowcast estimates (provided for the most recent two two-week periods when the "Nowcast on" option is selected below) are model-based projections of variant proportions for the most recent two-week periods to enable timely public health action. CDC uses the Nowcast to forecast variant proportions before the weighted estimates are available for a given two-week period.
Due to the greater reliability, verifiability, and empirical basis of the Weighted estimate, this question resolves based on that figure.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if CDC's [variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a weighted estimate for all XEC variants in the United States of 50% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending before January 5, 2025. If this does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Any subsequent revisions to the data after the question is resolved as **No** will not be considered.
CDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes, the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available, the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.
This question resolves according to the "Weighted" estimate and will not use the "Nowcast" estimate.
The HHS region used will be "USA".
The central estimate reported will be used.
|
2024-11-01T16:00:00Z
|
2025-01-03T05:01:00Z
|
2025-02-08T02:29:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29125
|
Will rapper 50 Cent endorse Donald Trump in the 2024 election before November 5, 2024?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/50_Cent): "Jackson endorsed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the run-up for the 2016 U.S. presidential election.[242] He rejected an offer of $500,000 from the Trump campaign to make an appearance on the candidate's behalf.[243] However, he endorsed Donald Trump in 2020, due to his dislike of Joe Biden's tax plans.[244] A week later, he retracted his endorsement, saying on Twitter "F--k Donald Trump, I never liked him",[245] and endorsed Biden.[246]
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if rapper 50 Cent (Curtis James Jackson III) endorses Donald Trump, according to the Wikipedia page [List of Donald Trump 2024 presidential campaign endorsements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Donald_Trump_2024_presidential_campaign_endorsements) or credible sources in case of other reporting that is not yet reflected on the Wikipedia page. If there is no such public endorsement, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T13:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29124
|
Will South Dakota voters approve Constitutional Amendment G, which would provide for a state constitutional right to an abortion?
|
Ballotpedia: [South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G, Right to Abortion Initiative (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/South_Dakota_Constitutional_Amendment_G,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024))
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if South Dakota Constitutional Amendment G is approved in the 2024 general election, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) reporting. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Please note that this question is looking only at whether the state's voters approve the ballot measure. Therefore such factors as its effectiveness date, funding, repeal, litigation, enforcement, or other such issues will not be considered when resolving this question.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-06T14:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29123
|
Will Republican Congressman Juan Ciscomani be re-elected in Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 election?
|
Ballotpedia: [Arizona's 6th Congressional District](https://ballotpedia.org/Arizona%27s_6th_Congressional_District). The 2024 US general election is scheduled for November 5, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Juan Ciscomani wins the election to the House of Representatives from Arizona's 6th Congressional District in the 2024 US general election. If any other candidate wins, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) including media projections.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T19:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29122
|
Will the USDA-posted recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before December 1, 2024?
|
According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), "Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after November 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-15T18:58:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29121
|
Will BigBear.AI file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
BigBear.ai, which provides AI decision solutions to government and private clients, has run at operating losses since 2020 and in Q1 2024 raised capital by issuing $53.9 million in net new stock.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T19:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29120
|
Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6.5 billion or more on Monday December 30, 2024?
|
According to Bloomberg:
>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.50B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on December 30, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading).
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on December 30, 2024, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person.
If Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on December 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until January 7, 2025, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
Admins resolving this question will not round up. For example., $6.5000B would count, but $6.4999B would not.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T18:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29119
|
Will Brian Daboll cease to be the New York Giants head coach before January 1, 2025?
|
NJ.com: [Will Giants fire Brian Daboll, Joe Schoen? Keep an eye on this key factor (beyond just losing)](https://www.nj.com/giants/2024/09/will-giants-fire-brian-daboll-joe-schoen-keep-an-eye-on-this-key-factor-beyond-just-losing.html)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Brian Daboll is no longer head coach of the New York Giants according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Cowboys website [coaches roster](https://www.giants.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T03:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29118
|
Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactly 7 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both lost the World Series and done it in exactly 7 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:36:30Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29117
|
Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactly 6 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both lost the World Series and done it in exactly 6 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:36:18Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29116
|
Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactly 5 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both lost the World Series and done it in exactly 5 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:36:02Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29115
|
Will the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees lose the 2024 World Series in exactly 4 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both lost the World Series and done it in exactly 4 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:35:48Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29114
|
Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 7 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly 7 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both won the World Series and done it in exactly 7 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:35:34Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29113
|
Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 6 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly 6 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both won the World Series and done it in exactly 6 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:35:21Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29112
|
Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 5 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly 5 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games, lengthened to more games (as happened [in 1919](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1919_World_Series) or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both won the World Series and done it in exactly 5 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:35:08Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29111
|
Will the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in baseball in exactly 4 games?
|
The 2024 baseball World Series is scheduled to begin on October 25, 2024, between the NY Yankees, who are the American League champions, and the LA Dodgers, who are the champions of the National League.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees win the 2024 World Series in exactly 4 games played in the Series, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) such as [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/news/2024-mlb-playoff-and-world-series-schedule). If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The World Series is a best-of-7 series, and in the event of an edge case such as the Series being shortened to fewer games or the Series being canceled (as happened [in 1994](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_World_Series) due to a player strike) or excessively delayed, this question will resolve as **No** if the Yankees have not both won the World Series and done it in exactly 4 games, before January 1, 2025.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T14:34:38Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29110
|
Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before January 1, 2025?
|
Reuters: [Intel's Dow status under threat as struggling chipmaker's shares plunge
](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as Yes upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or credible source reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index.
If no such announcement or reporting occurs before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as No.
Fine Print: Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before January 1, 2025 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after December 31, 2024.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-18T20:10:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29109
|
At the end of 2024, will Wikipedia still list Brazil as "currently" blocking access to Twitter/X?
|
According to the resolution source, "On August 30, 2024, the Brazilian Supreme Federal Court judge Alexandre de Moraes issued an order requiring Brazillian ISPs to block Twitter due to Elon Musk's refusal to appoint a legal representative of Twitter in Brazil, which was required by Brazilian law.[85] The ban itself came from previous conflicts between Musk and Moraes after Twitter under Musk revoked the suspension of accounts that were previously requested by the government to be blocked for misinformation regarding the 2023 Brazilian Congress attack. Moraes imposed a fine of R$50,000 (US$9,000) per day for anyone in Brazil who accessed Twitter using a virtual private network (VPN), and initially requested the removal of VPN apps from Apple's App Store and Google's Play Store.[86] The President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, supported the ban of Twitter in the country.[87] On September 18, 2024, Twitter began serving its content through Cloudflare for requests originating from Brazil in an attempt to circumvent the ban.[88][89]"
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocking Brazil at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the Wikipedia article does not list Twitter/X as currently being blocked, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**. Admins will also use their discretion if there appears to be an [edit war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Edit_warring) or lack of Wikipedia [consensus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Consensus) and may annul the question in such a case; however, Admins will also strive to resolve the question as definitively Yes or No, and such an edge case should be considered a rare outcome.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29080
|
Will the recreational marijuana amendment pass in the November 2024 election?
|
Florida voters are preparing to decide on the legalization of recreational marijuana through Amendment 3. Polls indicate strong public support, although opposition campaigns have intensified, particularly from Governor Ron DeSantis' administration. The amendment requires at least 60% of votes to pass.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as “Yes” if Amendment 3 passes with 60% or more of the vote, as officially reported by the Florida Division of Elections. Otherwise, the resolution will be “No.”
|
2024-10-23T21:28:00Z
|
2024-11-04T23:41:00Z
|
2024-11-05T17:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29079
|
Will Don Gaetz win the Florida State Senate District 1 election in 2024?
|
Don Gaetz, a former Florida Senate President, is running for the State Senate District 1 seat against Lisa Newell, a political newcomer. Newell aims to give voters a fresh choice, citing frustrations with Gaetz’s long political career and concerns about representation. This race draws attention as it involves key issues such as affordable housing, insurance reform, and school funding.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as “Yes” if Don Gaetz is officially declared the winner of the State Senate District 1 election for 2024 by the Florida Division of Elections. Otherwise, the resolution will be “No.”
|
2024-10-23T21:28:00Z
|
2024-11-04T23:37:00Z
|
2024-11-26T03:27:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29074
|
Will the Schwab Trading Activity Index be lower for October 2024 than it was for September 2024?
|
[Schwab Trading Activity Index™: September Score Slides by Biggest Margin Since June ’22](https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20241007024576/en/): "The Schwab Trading Activity Index™ (STAX) decreased to 47.10 in September, down from its score of 53.16 in August. The only index of its kind, the STAX is a proprietary, behavior-based index that analyzes retail investor stock positions and trading activity from Schwab’s millions of client accounts to illuminate what investors were actually doing and how they were positioned in the markets each month."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Schwab Trading Activity Index (STAX) is lower than 47.10 for the month of October 2024, at [this resolution link](https://www.schwab.com/investment-research/stax/view-schwab-trading-activity-index), when accessed by Metaculus. If it shows a value that is greater than or equal to 47.10, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: In case of delays in updating the resolution source, resolution will wait until it has been updated. If on or after January 1, 2024, it has still not updated for the time in question, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T13:12:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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