id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Har9iVZNxKDmXSd5fKOx | Will Jensen Huang be 2024 Time CEO of the Year? | Last year they basically invented this category to give Sam Altman a consolation prize. Will Jensen Huang get it this year? | 2024-02-27T08:30:25 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:48:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r1Rt4bo6uP8YyogNrsU4 | Will the GOP lose the majority in the House of Representatives? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-27T03:03:04 | 2024-11-12T20:59:00 | 2024-11-13T19:37:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NWK9gTette8uyM5XWRr4 | Will Mistral AI be acquired by the end of 2024? | See also: @/ahalekelly/will-mistral-ai-announce-theyre-bei | 2024-02-27T00:10:46 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:15:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ha2T0jfQhCxC6hm9JktS | Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Gaza conflict by next Monday? | Biden said today that he hopes to have a ceasefire in Gaza by next Monday, i.e., March 4.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/-pdSGuY-6jA)Will his hope come true? Specifically, will a ceasefire be negotiated before March 4? If it comes down to the exact hour, I'll use midnight in Eastern European Standard Time (GMT+2) to ... | 2024-02-26T21:25:48 | 2024-03-03T21:59:00 | 2024-03-04T15:20:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gwpe0AYzrJ0txv99arv8 | Will an S&P 500 market correction be declared in 2024? | A market correction is defined as a fall of at least 10% from a recent peak.
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at or below 10% of the closing all-time high on any day in 2024. Resolves NO otherwise. | 2024-02-26T20:33:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:02:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OacuomgSgTcf0jfHcoLE | 🗳️🏪💸 Prop 32: Will California raise the state minimum wage to $18 / hour? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T20:28:19 | 2024-11-20T21:02:30 | 2024-11-20T21:02:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BU0qJIlMUWzZBMLqgf7G | Will another person immolate themself in 2024 as a protest against the Israeli destruction of Gaza? | The person must set themself on fire and we must have evidence that their motivation for doing so was the desire for an end of Israel's accused genocide of the Gazan people. If they mention Israel/Palestine more broadly, this will resolve Yes (unless they indicate they are only talking about some other regional politic... | 2024-02-26T19:19:33 | 2024-09-13T12:15:13 | 2024-09-13T12:15:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fgaI5sS3VpdDFZpCJEHl | Will Michael Cohen testify at Trump’s hush money trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T18:53:52 | 2024-05-14T23:41:38 | 2024-05-14T23:41:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PJfyjJN5Tk8RHHHF1m9q | Will Stormy Daniels testify in Trump’s hush money trial? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T18:48:52 | 2024-05-11T16:02:48 | 2024-05-11T16:02:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K6q1EoIZQuHO1dmyEwvE | Will Nvidia have a higher market cap. then Google at the end of 2024? | Resolves by https://companiesmarketcap.com/ | 2024-02-26T18:37:54 | 2025-01-01T10:08:54 | 2025-01-01T10:08:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OnpTRYKNS3JKjeSBtCsO | Will bitcoin reach $66666 before the end of 6/6? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T18:35:04 | 2024-03-04T08:19:51 | 2024-03-04T08:19:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cTjzuW6P6R4P0YXUTehl | Will any NATO nation (including France) send troops to Ukraine in 2024? | Source:
https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/western-troops-on-the-ground-in-ukraine-is-not-ruled-out-in-the-future-french-leader-says/LDTMYLAUOZETBBIIP6TJKTCQ7Y/
Resolves YES if any NATO nation (excluding Ukraine, should it be added to NATO) sends official NATO troops OR its own militia to fight in Ukraine. Non-com... | 2024-02-26T18:30:45 | 2025-02-17T15:23:14 | 2025-02-17T15:23:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XKjBT1esBP1ef0n4HY4x | Will bitcoin reach $66666 before the end of February? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T18:22:32 | 2024-02-28T15:59:00 | 2024-03-01T07:12:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pRKeB3BnYLEokmI3M98Y | Will Dune 3 be announced before April? | This market resolves Yes if a third movie in the Dune universe is officially announced as having its production greenlit before April 1st, 2024 Pacific Time. If not, this market resolves No.
Dune Part 2 was announced four days after Part 1 released, so it's possible a similar announcement could occur any day now. | 2024-02-26T18:02:29 | 2024-03-31T19:17:40 | 2024-03-31T19:17:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xvu0x4kQXZRVbaxdVWaF | Will Vegapunk's death be a fake out? | One Piece is infamous for fake out death scenes. Is Vegapunk's heart rate flat lining in 1108 one of these fake outs or will Oda keep him dead.
I will consider a fake out death to be something along the lines of "his heart stopped but was started up again", "his body was destroyed but his consciousness transfered to ... | 2024-02-26T17:58:59 | 2024-12-02T12:49:00 | 2024-12-10T05:21:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dRJkRO0YWM2b50YFPzhA | Will "Dune: Part Two" have >$200 million domestic gross by the end of St Patrick's Day? (March 17th) | "Dune: Part Two" (2024) opens on March 1st. This market will resolve based on the domestic total listed by BoxOfficeMojo through (and including) March 17th, 2024 (i.e. St. Patrick's Day, 2024): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/?ref_=bo_gr_rls.
For context, a similar market for "Dune" (2021) with end d... | 2024-02-26T16:13:38 | 2024-03-18T08:12:12 | 2024-03-18T08:12:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-E3AVQAw2EInx4dOmmCyK | Will "Dune: Part Two" have >$200 million domestic gross by the end of Pi day? (3/14, two weeks after release) | "Dune: Part Two" (2024) opens on March 1st. This market will resolve based on the domestic total listed by BoxOfficeMojo through (and including) March 14th, 2024 (also known as "Pi Day"): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/?ref_=bo_gr_rls.
For context, a similar market for "Dune" (2021) with end date No... | 2024-02-26T16:03:40 | 2024-03-15T18:46:46 | 2024-03-15T18:46:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-72KCKCYkUfcTa3uTjMdO | Will Tottenham beat Crystal Palace during regular time on Sat, Mar 2, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Tottenham vs Crystal Palace
📅 Date: Saturday, March 2, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Tottenham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plu... | 2024-02-26T16:02:11 | 2024-03-02T10:00:00 | 2024-03-02T10:02:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-S96272LYWUzXSG6BqAhv | Will Nottingham Forest beat Liverpool during regular time on Sat, Mar 2, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Nottingham Forest vs Liverpool
📅 Date: Saturday, March 2, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Nottingham Forest has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regul... | 2024-02-26T16:02:09 | 2024-03-02T10:00:00 | 2024-03-02T10:01:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DUT8lFZkb9BfRQ8dw5bX | Will Bitcoin reach $65432.10 before the end of Cinco de Mayo? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-02-26T13:45:18 | 2024-03-04T07:40:18 | 2024-03-04T07:40:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LoerYn39cGkY9WkV3mKU | Will Microsoft Corp acquire Mistral AI by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T13:43:38 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-09T11:56:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FSQoiJvmWL6s928ZamOI | Will Sweden join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $65K again? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T12:14:49 | 2024-03-04T00:46:50 | 2024-03-04T00:46:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UE2hQnJNRierLpiZPCx0 | Will Bitcoin reach $65432.10 before April 1st? | Going by Google for BTC price | 2024-02-26T11:39:26 | 2024-03-04T07:40:52 | 2024-03-04T07:40:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g8lOBt6xv6pAecfvJ9Si | Will Bitcoin hit $60,000 before $50,000? | Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $60,000first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $50,000first
Market close date will be extended as needed. | 2024-02-26T11:30:38 | 2024-02-28T05:25:06 | 2024-02-28T05:25:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M6TJi9WUWvZHaoarmn1D | Will Bitcoin hit $57,000 before $53,000? | Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $57,000 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $53,000 first
Market close date will be extended as needed. | 2024-02-26T11:30:03 | 2024-02-27T06:44:33 | 2024-02-27T06:44:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FwgeXaiKS0t1uIn0X0U1 | Will Donald Trump declare bankruptcy by Election Day, November 5th, 2024? | In light of the recent New York judgement, resolves yes if Donald Trump declares bankruptcy by Election Day, November 5th, 2024. | 2024-02-26T09:35:37 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-06T05:58:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Vj3HC7sUBYCfmnNFrdd | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $788.17 per share on March 1, 2024? | Weekly prediction for NVDA.
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $788.17 USD on the closing price of 1 of March, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ | 2024-02-26T09:11:04 | 2024-03-01T14:23:09 | 2024-03-01T14:23:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8VPHIdTK2al2A5QzYlCJ | Will Sweden join NATO before Reddit / RDDT IPOs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T08:53:26 | 2024-03-07T09:32:56 | 2024-03-07T09:32:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-M8153zSmCHjvVg9OgOIX | SpaceX Starship launch by March 15? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-launch-by-march-15/spacex-starship-launch-by-march-15). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"If any Starship successfully launches... | 2024-02-26T08:40:45 | 2024-03-14T11:23:47 | 2024-03-14T11:23:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IwdJWr9BLuUEn3WA9Jy4 | Will the initial price of a Reddit / RDDT share be more than a copy of Palworld? ($29.99) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-26T07:46:32 | 2024-03-21T07:10:37 | 2024-03-21T07:10:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-27bViKPY4t6yfK6SraQ1 | Will the S&P 500 (SP:SPX) close positive for the month of March 2024? | Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the SPX is greater than the opening price. (5098.51)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
Index: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AwEbTtxK/?symbol=SPX | 2024-02-26T07:14:38 | 2024-03-28T12:00:00 | 2024-03-28T18:32:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hNfJId0e1OOtuHzigHy6 | Will GPT-4's successor be released this week? | Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it. | 2024-02-26T01:49:35 | 2024-03-04T02:59:00 | 2024-03-04T10:18:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1YbnUIfQMQb93kANUDpv | [Metaculus] Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics + injure/kill one person? | Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21354/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in Metropolitan France injures and/or kil... | 2024-02-26T00:56:50 | 2024-08-12T03:39:20 | 2024-08-12T03:39:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OKLX1OBuCITZ2owRmVin | Will Lee Anderson join Reform UK? | Over the weekend, Lee Anderson had the Conservative whip removed for his absolutely vile comments about Sadiq Khan:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/feb/24/lee-anderson-stripped-of-tory-whip-over-sadiq-khan-comment
There is lots of speculation that he will defect to Reform UK.
Will he do so before Parliamen... | 2024-02-25T23:50:45 | 2024-03-11T04:07:42 | 2024-03-11T04:07:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-epWGXV0JoGaVoCT8VtAq | Will a character in the movie "Dune 2" say the word "jihad"? | In the books, the characters refer to the Fremen universe conquest as "jihad." In the first movie, Paul Atreides says the words "holy war" instead.
Resolves YES if any character in Dune 2 says the word "Jihad." It must be spoken as a line of dialogue (the kind that would appear in the movie's subtitles) and the dialo... | 2024-02-25T23:34:31 | 2024-03-01T07:07:42 | 2024-03-01T07:07:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Cj6u8copwJpp4J4hcIxL | [Polymarket] NVIDIA flips Apple in market cap by April 30? | This market is a direct copy of a market from Polymarket (https://polymarket.com/event/nvidia-flips-apple-in-market-cap-by-april-30?tid=1708929477816). The resolution of this market will mirror the resolution of the original market.
The description of the original market:
"This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nvidia'... | 2024-02-25T22:53:30 | 2024-04-30T13:59:00 | 2024-05-04T15:13:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FI7Oqdt0ZgYSonQalLl5 | Will Fortnite be available on iOS again before end of July 2024? | Relevant news item: https://www.macrumors.com/2024/01/25/fortnite-returning-to-ios-in-europe/
Resolves YES if it’s available in any country for at least one day. Even if it’s just Europe countries. | 2024-02-25T19:59:44 | 2024-07-31T06:59:00 | 2024-08-02T05:34:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ThcH86lwF3qEXEF3iI1q | Will 1USD buy more than 100 Mana before the end of 2025? | mana circulation keep going up over time, mana inflation is real, market interest rate for mana is about 5% a month
So will 1USD buy more than 100 Mana before the end of 2025?
Resolves Yes if there is a permanent increase in official buy-in USD:mana exchange rate such that users can buy more than 100 mana with 1 USD.
... | 2024-02-25T19:28:48 | 2024-05-22T12:55:39 | 2024-05-22T12:55:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5tsMJ14Q9NJmsaRnSkoC | Will 1USD buy more than 100 Mana before the end of 2024? | mana circulation keep going up over time, mana inflation is real, market interest rate for mana is about 5% a month
So will 1USD buy more than 100 Mana before the end of 2025?
Resolves Yes if there is a permanent increase in official buy-in USD:mana exchange rate such that users can buy more than 100 mana with 1 USD.
... | 2024-02-25T19:28:38 | 2024-05-22T12:55:27 | 2024-05-22T12:55:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fCopYiPKdGNSifheVBdJ | Will Jimmy Carter live to see Sweden join NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-25T18:27:02 | 2024-03-07T09:26:47 | 2024-03-07T09:26:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HKtPutLJZu3YWdm6HwfU | Will Biden's state of the union happen before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-25T18:25:59 | 2024-03-07T09:10:58 | 2024-03-07T09:10:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8w0p1P5eNxCiT0AkDSS9 | Will Destiny reach 900k subscribers in 2024? | Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page | 2024-02-25T15:51:16 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:30:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mCePdWkpH89AfgayXkvq | Will Destiny reach 795k subscribers in Apr 2024? | Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page | 2024-02-25T15:47:50 | 2024-05-01T14:59:00 | 2024-05-01T15:10:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4HeTfpexQZuzVypP51VZ | Will Lewis Hamilton win a Race in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | Sprint Races do NOT count | 2024-02-25T11:16:54 | 2024-07-07T08:47:38 | 2024-07-07T08:47:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YZnexG9lXzL6GdCRg6pI | Will Mercedes win a Race in the 2024 Formula 1 Season? | Sprint Races do NOT count | 2024-02-25T11:14:23 | 2024-06-30T07:31:09 | 2024-06-30T07:31:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QSKCQS7LGqlF06CSIXRu | Will Destiny reach 785k subscribers in Mar 2024? | Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page | 2024-02-25T09:43:22 | 2024-04-01T05:47:32 | 2024-04-01T05:47:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YUqxlzbUJjZJp1aSbcsG | Will Argentina’s official inflation numbers for February 2024 be over 15%? | Argentina started 2024 with a monthly inflation rate of 20.6%, which, while 5 points lower than December 2023, still reflects significant economic challenges. This was a result of a 54% devaluation of the peso in December 2023 under President Javier Milei's administration. The annual inflation hit 254.4%, with the "oth... | 2024-02-25T09:16:30 | 2024-03-12T12:06:57 | 2024-03-12T12:06:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EjKLxWLXUG81DMCi1b2U | [Metaculus] Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024? | Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21488/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, when trading closes on March 29, 2024, (after 4 PM easte... | 2024-02-25T08:56:38 | 2024-03-30T13:00:00 | 2024-03-30T20:38:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-auxZRZ2dJhp0XHYocpud | 🗳️👩⚕️🐣 Ballot Props: Will Florida legalize abortion? | Amendment 4 is on the November ballot. It would guarantee the right to an abortion while the fetus is younger than 24 weeks.
Requires a 60% majority.
More info:
https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_4,_Right_to_Abortion_Initiative_(2024)
See also:
[markets] | 2024-02-25T08:51:51 | 2024-11-05T21:13:22 | 2024-11-05T21:13:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CvM15yn5lHObzyMc0MT3 | 🗳️🤘🏼🥬 Ballot Props: Will Florida legalize marijuana? | Amendment 3 is on the November ballot. It would legalize recreational marijuana for those over 21.
Requires a 60% majority.
More info:
https://ballotpedia.org/Florida_Amendment_3,_Marijuana_Legalization_Initiative_(2024)
See also:
[markets] | 2024-02-25T08:46:17 | 2024-11-05T21:14:10 | 2024-11-05T21:14:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ejIR0usXnzvfgGfS6p9K | Will McLaren F1 win a race in 2024? | Resolves yes if any McLaren driver wins a feature race in the 2024 season. Sprint races do not count.
Wins on track that drop position or get removed due to penalties during or after the race do not count as a win. | 2024-02-25T00:46:33 | 2024-05-05T14:54:07 | 2024-05-05T14:54:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XalspstH4Mx6zUh31LEm | Will an F1 car get damaged by a manhole / drain cover in 2024? | Will a Formula 1 car get damaged by a manhole or drain cover in 2024 again? Any incident similar to the one in Las Vegas or the one that happened during testing in 2024.
Can be in practice sessions or during racing, both count. It's in 2024 again, previous incidents before the opening of the market don't count. | 2024-02-25T00:12:02 | 2024-12-08T09:38:47 | 2024-12-08T09:38:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aT9fk5KqD7cA4Hlw62hR | Will Alaska vote to repeal Ranked Choice Voting by the end of 2024? | A ballot measure to repeal ranked choice voting in Alaska and replace it with a partisan primary + FPTP voting has obtained enough signatures to be on the ballot in Alaska, either for the primary or the general election.
For more information, see:
https://ballotpedia.org/Alaska_Repeal_Top-Four_Ranked-Choice_Voting_In... | 2024-02-24T23:26:25 | 2024-12-10T22:56:26 | 2024-12-10T22:56:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n7scC3wewh3MXcRihcg3 | Will NASDAQ: NVDA hit $825 before end of March 2024? | https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda | 2024-02-24T23:23:44 | 2024-03-04T20:59:15 | 2024-03-04T20:59:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f0WAB0MqvUWpH6W8jgNe | Will the IM-2 lunar lander soft-land upright on the moon? | This market was inspired by @Sailfish markets but without the additional "success" criteria for the payloads.
https://www.intuitivemachines.com/missions
https://www.nasa.gov/event/intuitive-machines-clps-flight-im-2/
https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=PRIME-1
Since the purpose of the missi... | 2024-02-24T21:30:00 | 2025-03-08T06:48:14 | 2025-03-08T06:48:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pz8Ov6ws6p52sKlYkyq0 | Will Novak Djokovic win at least 1 Grand Slam in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-24T15:58:27 | 2024-08-30T21:14:28 | 2024-08-30T21:14:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Sa8dqARzQF3rpFPG8JLn | Will the U.S. assassinate a Houthi leader in 2024? | This question will resolve YES if the U.S. takes responsibility for the assassination (by any means, including airstrike) of a leader of Yemen's Houthi movement in 2024 after the creation of this market.
There has been chatter that the U.S. air campaign against Houthi missile launches has been ineffective because it i... | 2024-02-24T13:46:49 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:49:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WQECRmJWURbZwRys0j5d | [Metaculus] Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024? | Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21487/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 15, 2024, Nikki Haley officially announces that she has en... | 2024-02-24T12:55:19 | 2024-03-06T07:44:43 | 2024-03-06T07:44:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-O6HuizAuqUnhTOmAa7Rj | Will the Nasdaq 100 index (NASDAQ:NDX) close positive for the month of March 2024? | Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the NDX is greater than the opening price. (18069.29)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
Index: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AwEbTtxK/?symbol=NDX | 2024-02-24T09:26:40 | 2024-03-28T12:00:00 | 2024-03-28T18:30:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DRunHhN1r3tTDsUHMdjf | Will there be a Temu import ban in the US in 2024? | According to reports from The Information, some US lawmakers have been pushing for Temu products to be banned from being imported to the US, because of concerns about labor practice including slave labor. They have proposed that the DHS add Temu to the list of violators of the
Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act.
Will... | 2024-02-24T06:06:34 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:02:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SqQCDMMDPKrUGiG8i1pB | Will a major social media company experience an outage of 24 hours or more before 2025? | I'll define "major" with the informal measures:
I've heard about it
My wife has heard about it
My students have heard about it
The outage sparks headlines
This will rule out major platforms that are not popular in America. I'll define social media as anything where you can post publicly. Snapchat counts, Whatsapp ... | 2024-02-24T05:13:50 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T08:25:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9zk0CVvTN9wWowuTZbzC | Will OpenAI Announce AI Robots in 2024? | I'll consider the market resolved as "yes" if OpenAI releases a demo of a physical robot utilizing their technology, akin to their previous unveilings of ChatGPT, DALL-E, and SORA.
Edit: minor clarification - this should be about robots being able to achieve things in the physical world enabled by an Open AI model, no... | 2024-02-24T02:22:23 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:50:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8KOgKpO0keSlkxuxmnk | Will Biden make any gaffes during his next press conference? | A gaffe would be Biden misspeaking in a way that generated negative news coverage.
I am going to use the definition of news conference from UCSB's American Presidency Project: "The term "news conference" refers simply to an interaction between the President and multiple members of the press in a relatively formal sett... | 2024-02-23T21:29:47 | 2024-06-09T23:59:00 | 2024-06-10T11:54:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-08diTOMf3eFzDU4zTTF0 | Will GPT-5 be announced in March 2024? | [tweet]Resolves NA if I get fewer than 20 traders. PST time if it matters. Any official announcement confirming it exists counts, even if nobody except OpenAI can access it. | 2024-02-23T18:50:29 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T05:56:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k6Ze39jLHABkQZgIKv6z | Will Tesla close higher at the end of February than January? | Tesla Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
TSLA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 187.29
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian... | 2024-02-23T14:46:18 | 2024-02-29T12:00:00 | 2024-02-29T13:03:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-110YoASFoRAuZuFCatva | Will Nvidia close higher than 788.17 on March 1? | Retailer Stocks
NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 788.17
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCr... | 2024-02-23T14:39:41 | 2024-03-01T12:00:00 | 2024-03-01T13:45:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5soy05oAyvLZ3x91Htvn | Will Apple close higher than 182.52 on March 1? | Retailer Stocks
Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
AAPL closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 182.52
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryp... | 2024-02-23T14:39:03 | 2024-03-01T12:00:00 | 2024-03-01T13:47:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5LPfOtng0jc5dbGBuCfh | Will Facebook/Meta close higher than 484.03 on March 1? | Retailer Stocks
Meta Platforms Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price
META closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 484.03
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws... | 2024-02-23T14:37:58 | 2024-03-01T12:00:00 | 2024-03-01T13:54:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tqvhVw7hA504pGvbvR7f | Will Tesla OPEN higher than 191.97 on February 26? | Tesla Inc
Resolves according to Google Open Price
TSLA opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 191.97
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | 2024-02-23T14:31:50 | 2024-02-26T10:59:28 | 2024-02-26T10:59:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SO8ELfHaq634bAyKtjJ7 | Will Nvidia OPEN higher than 788.17 on February 26? | NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Open Price
NVDA opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 788.17
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | 2024-02-23T14:31:07 | 2024-02-26T10:59:54 | 2024-02-26T10:59:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ymyOR9fJJ1CJQldw34pN | Will Bitcoin Hit $100,000 Before The End Of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-23T09:24:14 | 2024-12-05T09:14:48 | 2024-12-05T09:14:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WDMCUNFBiVM8ca1nUJCv | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,300.00 before 4,900.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,300.00 or 4,900.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-02).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,900.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,300.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-02-23T06:04:22 | 2024-05-15T10:56:32 | 2024-05-15T10:56:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WKsp787qUyy9smxERIlI | Will Vegapunk reveal imu's existence to the world? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-23T05:53:19 | 2024-08-23T13:09:01 | 2024-08-23T13:09:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j1prjCur5mYUhsosFysG | [Metaculus] Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024? | Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21489/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after February 21, 2024, and bef... | 2024-02-23T04:54:35 | 2024-03-09T06:00:00 | 2024-03-11T09:48:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W9Ec9q9S0Yut3uBcGAKe | Will Whatsapp usernames be generally available before the end of 2024? | This question is about whatsapp users being reachable through an username, instead of a phone number. In particular, about that feature being generally available across regions and platforms before the end of 2024 | 2024-02-23T02:52:13 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:33:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SE6ut8SBeAXEDm4Z7EZK | Will Mark Rutte become the new leader of the NATO alliance? | The former prime minister of the Netherlands becomes the new NATO chef after Jens Stoltenberg.
The decision come in March throughout the news channels in the EU. | 2024-02-22T21:29:31 | 2024-07-18T09:27:36 | 2024-07-18T09:27:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZIExUbQ7uSxhsffmEXqt | will Elon/X release an email product in 2024? | [image]Self exanatory - this market resolves yes if an XMail (or email product by another name) is released in 2024. I'll add more information if/when it comes but the assumption is that this will be a Gmail competitor. The release must function as email with its own domain and not be an inbuilt Twitter/X messaging app... | 2024-02-22T20:00:17 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-08T21:39:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ZkwaWfKaFC9RVcB9BQO | Will the state of New York collapse before the end of February? | The state of New York is starting to fall , crime is up criminals are not prosecuted Illegal migrants are flooding the streets and protest are daily. Corruption, rains free. Law abiding citizens are punished. What are the chances everything fails and the state Falls victim to its own policy? “
Clarification on 'State... | 2024-02-22T19:55:36 | 2024-02-29T23:17:06 | 2024-02-29T23:17:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nIJhZOrY5ioFJbZ8gEuI | If there is a vote to remove Mike Johnson as speaker, will House Democrats save him? | When Kevin McCarthy was removed as Speaker of the House, it was voted in favor by 208 Democrats and 8 Republicans, with 0 Democrats and 210 Republicans opposed. There is reporting that centrist Democrats would not do this if there is a motion to vacate against the current Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson. Will Democr... | 2024-02-22T18:59:44 | 2024-05-08T15:55:07 | 2024-05-08T15:55:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0sse03f1lgMzbtsayhu1 | Will any House Republican directly threaten to remove Mike Johnson as Speaker, before April? | Tensions are high in the US Capitol, the Speaker of the House between a rock and a hard place trying to prevent a government shutdown.
When this happened in October, then-speaker Kevin McCarthy defied the most conservative members of his party and worked with Democrats to pass funding for the federal government. Shor... | 2024-02-22T18:27:00 | 2024-03-22T09:01:41 | 2024-03-22T09:01:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Yqkush2LgvTIGAXMCPfx | Will a poll say AI obsoleted human forecasters in 2024? | Dan Hendrycks (Director of the Center for AI Safety) claims:
[tweet][image]Let's very generously extend the timeframe to "anytime in 2024", instead of "within a month" as claimed.
First I established a baseline poll here about last year, 2023:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/were-human-forecasters-obs... | 2024-02-22T16:46:03 | 2025-01-31T20:59:00 | 2025-02-01T07:38:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WfYG5x064WLw98QfBE4T | Will the dow jones industrial average go above 40,000 before the end of March? | Resolves with Google Finance
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.DJI:INDEXDJX?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjNwsfY5r-EAxWZETQIHXmNCwQQ3ecFegQIGRAb | 2024-02-22T12:39:34 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-02T07:43:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wCU5bOGn9b5duTfSHXAM | Will Bitcoin increase in March 2024? | If CoinGecko's historical data states that the closing price of Bitcoin on February 29th, 2024 ($61,298) is lower than the closing price on March 31st, 2024 then this question will resolve 'YES'.
Otherwise, it will resolve 'NO'.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data
| 2024-02-22T12:27:57 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T15:03:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fARDYnvzj8K9ae9H2v6H | Will human forecasting be made largely obsolete by AI within a month? | see tweet:
[tweet]Resolves to my personal opinion, or that of trusted manifold users if my opinion seems controversial at that time. | 2024-02-22T12:08:13 | 2024-03-23T20:59:00 | 2024-03-24T06:18:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fDlYte4sIfyatPnCUjON | Will Shekel vs Dollar reach 4.0 in 2024? | It was above 4.0 late October. Currently 3.6 and going sideways. | 2024-02-22T11:04:05 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T14:14:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9bqtCaiFMXuxN8BB0rGi | Will RSA-2048 encryption be broken before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-22T10:03:25 | 2024-12-04T20:06:19 | 2024-12-04T20:06:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2YkZapQUzilbW7wUOFIN | Will New York Magazine walk back the $50k in a shoebox article? | New York Magazine published an articled purporting to be a first-hand account of being scammed for $50,000. That article is available online here: https://www.thecut.com/article/amazon-scam-call-ftc-arrest-warrants.html
Market resolves to Yes if this article receives an editor’s note or other formal written statement ... | 2024-02-22T08:47:09 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:00:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lHpcFjbf0ooPkvCsRqlm | Will Google offer Gemini AI model's image generation of people again before end of February 2024? | For ordinary private users in the US (https://gemini.google.com/app)
Please note that Gemini's image generation is currently prohibited in nearly all European countries, so I'll use news and rely on other people's screenshots to resolve the question.
I won't place a bet in this market.
This question primarily per... | 2024-02-22T07:36:34 | 2024-03-01T00:00:00 | 2024-03-01T00:32:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p0uBzv4oBE1Cudv8JSZh | Will TCB Scans upload chapter 1109 of One Piece on February 29th? | I am basing this off of GMT-8 time zone for February 29th. If they release chapter 1109 between 00:00:00 and 23:59:59, this question will resolve as “YES.” Anything else will resolve as “NO.”
TCB Scans usually posts the chapter on the same day. 1108 was February 22, 1107 was February 15.
I do not answer my own questi... | 2024-02-22T07:03:01 | 2024-02-29T23:59:00 | 2024-03-01T02:48:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mD5CjOyWiAGDF0gXZuXv | Will Oppenheimer win more Oscars than all of the other Best Picture nominees combined? | There are 10 Best Picture nominees: Oppenheimer, and 9 others.
If Oppenheimer wins more Academy Awards (across every category) than all of the other films nominated for Best Picture combined, this question will resolve yes. If it wins equally as many or fewer, this question will resolve no. | 2024-02-22T04:24:25 | 2024-03-10T19:50:15 | 2024-03-10T19:50:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MUn44GCPJhZPg6a40PrK | Will Transnistria ask to be annexed by Russia before March 2024? | Resolves as YES if there is a significant request from a political entity in Transnistria between February 22nd and February 29th 2024, asking Russia to annex the region. | 2024-02-22T03:13:38 | 2024-03-01T00:28:01 | 2024-03-01T00:28:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8y3MlXAg6koFBUGjKtm | Will Liverpool beat Manchester City on March 10th? | Resolves YES if Liverpool beats Manchester City in the Premier League match of March 10th 2024. Resolves NO otherwise (including if there is a draw). | 2024-02-22T02:34:30 | 2024-03-10T11:37:57 | 2024-03-10T11:37:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nxmlSzjmrXUcrwF5RUrz | Will "Dune: Part Two" have a larger (domestic) gross in March than any other three movies combined? | Source: I will use BoxOfficeMojo's "Domestic Box Office For March 2024" https://www.boxofficemojo.com/month/march/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses. This tracks the total (domestic) gross for each movie that occurs within the calendar month of March (February example).
This question resolves NO if there are three o... | 2024-02-21T20:43:59 | 2024-04-03T09:54:32 | 2024-04-03T09:54:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z2L3XGeDcinFi86oef33 | Will the highest grossing domestic film of 2024 begin with a “D”? | On December 31st, 2024, will the highest grossing domestic film of 2024 have a title which begins with “D”?
Be it Deadpool & Wolverine, Despicable Me 3, Dune: Part 2, Drive-Away Dolls or any other D-titled 2024! | 2024-02-21T19:24:26 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:09:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JwtOINCoLfAJn2O5zQN9 | Will Charles Leclerc be world champion in 2024? | Will Charles Leclerc win enough races and claim enough points to get his first World Championship? | 2024-02-21T17:34:40 | 2024-12-08T20:59:00 | 2024-12-17T09:33:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R7TKMZOYEywhbiWULNMs | Will Will Stancil win the election for Minnesota House District 61A? | Will Stancil: Well it's out there now! Yep, I'm running for Minnesota House District 61A. More info very soon. This campaign won't be conducted on Twitter, but if you like what I'm generally about, or like metro planning and dislike far-right extremism, here you go: | 2024-02-21T16:19:55 | 2024-08-21T12:38:19 | 2024-08-21T12:38:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zRZFvjy4nM7A1fngb9ty | Will Will Stancil win the Minnesota House seat he's running for in 2024? | [tweet]Resolves YES/NO as soon as a major, credible news source calls that Will Stancil either has or has not won the Minnesota House District 61A seat.
Will Stancil has been prominent on certain corners of Twitter lately for being extremely vocal about topics like economic sentiment. He just announced his campaign - ... | 2024-02-21T15:18:25 | 2024-08-14T11:29:35 | 2024-08-14T11:29:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mi489Hw8mprj5zZy8YlX | Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2028? | To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the pl... | 2024-02-21T15:18:20 | 2024-11-20T09:08:12 | 2024-11-20T09:08:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-r3IqcJq0kQIV75oEzP0B | Will it turn out that Gemini injects ethnicity or gender related keywords into image generation prompts? | Gemini does some interesting things when you try to get it to generate images of people: https://twitter.com/IMAO_/status/1760093853430710557
Is this accomplished by modifying the user prompt, e.g. adding qualifiers like "black", "chinese", "female", "nonbinary"?
Will resolve YES if they change or add to the user pro... | 2024-02-21T14:08:20 | 2024-03-06T14:59:00 | 2024-03-06T16:43:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iNqujdPvtSuoTaOc87sR | Will Reddit stock close above IPO price the day after they go public? | Resolves YES if Reddit stock closes higher then their IPO price the day after they go public.
Resolves NO otherwise.
IPO price was $34
I'll check the close price on 03/22 here
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RDDT:NYSE | 2024-02-21T13:01:15 | 2024-03-22T13:00:00 | 2024-03-22T13:16:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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