id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-quEGbdmBHtX9P2ppXQOz | Will GPT-4's successor be released within 24 hours? | Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it. | 2024-02-21T07:10:24 | 2024-02-22T07:00:00 | 2024-02-22T07:14:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nw958BEe2LqsSCZi9JUp | Will Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House at the end of March? | Resolves YES if the Rt Hon Sir Lindsay Hoyle holds the position of Speaker of the House of Commons at market close. | 2024-02-21T06:07:16 | 2024-03-31T15:59:00 | 2024-03-31T23:46:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gE4k38s9k9CJmeVExLc2 | Will Real Madrid beat Sevilla during regular time on Sun, Feb 25, 2024? - La Liga | ⚽ Real Madrid vs Sevilla
📅 Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: La Liga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppa... | 2024-02-21T05:29:59 | 2024-02-25T15:00:00 | 2024-02-25T15:01:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dJEcosHQnYS2lew7Fsn1 | Will Wolves beat Sheffield Utd during regular time on Sun, Feb 25, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Wolves vs Sheffield Utd
📅 Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Wolves has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus sto... | 2024-02-21T05:29:41 | 2024-02-25T08:01:30 | 2024-02-25T08:01:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YUNJPyu38b5ztGhkZuLq | Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030? | To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the pl... | 2024-02-20T21:41:29 | 2024-11-20T09:07:20 | 2024-11-20T09:07:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-V3EAqjfyVCI3PHz1CQUH | Will Bitcoin drop below $50000 before the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
start counting from market creation date | 2024-02-20T21:00:12 | 2024-04-01T06:03:29 | 2024-04-01T06:03:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PgCey8v2KMTGIZ0WNfmh | Will Bitcoin surpass $65000 before the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
start counting from market creation date | 2024-02-20T20:57:15 | 2024-03-04T04:50:44 | 2024-03-04T04:50:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-udcGvk2VAq1n4GiJMhWW | Will Bitcoin surpass $64000 before the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
start counting from market creation date | 2024-02-20T20:57:03 | 2024-03-03T18:38:43 | 2024-03-03T18:38:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UVtdzkriISK0r33EQAEc | Will Bitcoin close above $70000 at the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history | 2024-02-20T20:42:31 | 2024-04-01T05:43:54 | 2024-04-01T05:43:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WSavu6KYjmA3ZpgqNMYA | Will Bitcoin close above $65000 at the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history | 2024-02-20T20:42:20 | 2024-04-01T05:43:02 | 2024-04-01T05:43:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-huvDRWtpCdlSdeHqXOhE | Will Bitcoin close above $60000 at the end of Mar 2024? | Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history | 2024-02-20T20:42:08 | 2024-04-01T05:43:22 | 2024-04-01T05:43:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-444M9p8sj9FibR3DVSUL | Will Deadpool & Wolverine be the highest grossing film of 2024? | On December 31st, 2024 will Deadpool & Wolverine be the highest grossing film on the BoxOfficeMojo 2024 Worldwide Box Office? | 2024-02-20T19:35:37 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T16:06:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CAylAqCD0vsuZQif3Eln | Will there be a day in March where the domestic (daily) gross of "Dune: Part Two" is <$1 million? | "Dune: Part Two" releases on March 1st, 2024.
Source:
I will use the "Domestic Daily" tab of https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/?ref_=bo_gr_rls
This question resolves NO if BoxOfficeMojo lists daily (domestic) gross >=$1 million for each day in March, and YES if it lists at least one day with a gross ... | 2024-02-20T18:54:13 | 2024-04-02T05:56:15 | 2024-04-02T05:56:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PuVV0cUvyORbPZ0YaFBR | Will Bitcoin reach $100K before the One Piece manga ends? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T17:34:43 | 2024-12-04T20:06:36 | 2024-12-04T20:06:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ndWyk5anMvJmOPNexrP9 | Will “Uncommitted” meet the delegate threshold in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27? | Resolves Yes if Uncommitted gets 15% or more of the vote statewide or in any district according to NYT.
Example ballot:
[image] | 2024-02-20T16:01:53 | 2024-02-28T08:41:27 | 2024-02-28T08:41:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7ZidoyhmMOgqTCWnygjf | Will Nikki Haley drop out before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T12:58:13 | 2024-03-06T08:28:56 | 2024-03-06T08:28:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EBWslvX0vhnIMhlwQMiZ | Will Nikki Haley drop out by March 11th 2024 at 11:26 AM EST? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T12:55:29 | 2024-03-06T09:49:38 | 2024-03-06T09:49:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZRIxwcg5EhQBJlpotDqW | Will Nikki Haley drop out by the end of April 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T12:52:50 | 2024-03-06T18:41:06 | 2024-03-06T18:41:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2deqgabvlKmI5oYGGwou | Will Europe be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI or Google at the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if a European model surpasses the top models of any of the two companies on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard on the day of Dec 31, 2024.
Retrieval/search/agents-augmented does not count. (So Bard will be excluded) | 2024-02-20T11:06:44 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:49:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vuJ05i8uaXDeauJbyKnx | Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President by March 20? | Nikki Haley has vowed to stay in the race till Super Tuesday. One turning point could be March 19, where she may be mathematically eliminated from contention.
[image]Will she drop out then? (includes March 20 to allow for a speech announcing it)
Relevant markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/when-will-... | 2024-02-20T09:39:44 | 2024-03-06T06:52:15 | 2024-03-06T07:13:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hfFLRLSmqQjV2Rihcoyo | Will a sudden death shake up the 2024 US Presidential election? | Resolves YES if one of the candidates, running mates, or another person key to the election cycle by my judgement (ex: a supreme court justice deciding on the Trump case) dies before the election takes place.
NA if uncertain, or I can poll Manifold to see if they think the death counts. | 2024-02-20T09:10:26 | 2024-12-09T19:07:48 | 2024-12-09T19:07:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qQyOnrfvfJd76pbE2PtK | Will Bitcoin reach $60K OR Sweden Join NATO OR Trump Announce VP OR Contrapoints release a video before EOM February? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T08:35:05 | 2024-02-28T07:10:49 | 2024-02-28T07:10:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NJomUsvYGfeJ8IeIRBft | Will all living US presidents attend Jimmy Carters's funeral? | Will everyone who is a living former or current president at the time of Jimmy Carters's funeral attend the funeral?
Related
(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-former-presidents-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-us-presidents-atten-ae14e3553047?r=QnJ1bm9K)(https://manifold... | 2024-02-20T06:57:43 | 2025-01-09T08:19:53 | 2025-01-09T08:19:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tPZC2Uo1yKmols66Vvag | Will Julian Assange be successfully extradited to the US before April 2024? 🇬🇧🔜🇺🇸 | Context: Julian Assange makes last-ditch attempt in UK court to avoid extradition to the US
Will Julian Assange be on US soil before April 1st?
Relevant text:
The two-day hearing will examine whether the embattled Australian should be granted leave to appeal a 2022 extradition decision made by former UK Home Secreta... | 2024-02-20T06:12:16 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T07:01:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AyiPd67Gjjlu3pEj8QP7 | Will Joe Biden complete a second term as US president? | This market resolves YES if Joe Biden is still the US president on the morning of January 20, 2029, when he hands over power to his successor. It resolves NO if someone else is president at that time. | 2024-02-20T05:21:57 | 2025-01-23T01:05:10 | 2025-01-23T01:05:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RLJW21cXclUJeBOibKcK | Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $726.13 per share on February 23, 2024? | Weekly prediction for NVDA.
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $726.13 USD on the closing price of 23 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ | 2024-02-20T04:42:06 | 2024-02-23T14:18:09 | 2024-02-23T14:18:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-perbRdk4JI7WOSMhnMlQ | Will Fani Willis be removed from the Trump Fulton County case? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T01:23:47 | 2024-03-15T07:42:54 | 2024-03-15T07:42:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gyy9RrFHTqUZIZpyJ0AL | Will a resolution pass in the UN that calls for a ceasefire in Gaza by the end of March? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-20T01:06:31 | 2024-03-25T09:51:10 | 2024-03-25T09:51:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HtscmokS9XAbNsOzfy1n | Will Bitcoin hit $57.5K in March 2024? | If Bitcoin remains at or above 57.5K on March 1st, then the question will resolve to YES. | 2024-02-20T00:27:08 | 2024-03-01T00:27:15 | 2024-03-01T00:27:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YJxEuxI2tpzBErNDZecw | Will Bitcoin go below $48K in March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-19T23:55:04 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T00:03:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hOZOaLtMTthlPHWY4JR1 | Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024? | Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Vuhledar within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024.
If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is a... | 2024-02-19T23:47:18 | 2024-10-03T23:07:04 | 2024-10-03T23:07:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TNU76krovusXsxUpxrhR | Will Nikki Haley drop out before the Supreme Court makes a decision about Trump on the Colorado ballot? | Resolves 'YES' if Nikki Haley drops out of the 2024 U.S. presidential race before the U.S. Supreme Court makes a decision regarding Trump's eligibility to appear on the ballot in Colorado for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. | 2024-02-19T18:07:16 | 2024-03-04T09:07:55 | 2024-03-04T09:07:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ntF1qspgWlEonirs1wzf | Will the Jordan Bernt Peterson x Steven Kenneth Bonnell II discussion be released before the end of February. | will the video/audio talk be released before the 1st of March 00:01. Good luck
[image] | 2024-02-19T17:36:26 | 2024-02-29T14:59:00 | 2024-02-29T18:18:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QKDdlXysE8H6d8kdSNIy | Will there be a USA government shutdown before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-19T15:57:56 | 2024-03-07T09:24:20 | 2024-03-07T09:24:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dihMWMgwydXbxglBjTbE | Will Apple announce their own Generative AI model at WWDC 2024? | This market will resolve YES if Apple announces a generative AI model at WWDC 2024. The model must be developed by Apple, capable of creating new data (such as text or images) based on learned patterns, and should not involve the integration of an existing model, such as GPT-4, into their products.
The model must be g... | 2024-02-19T15:10:00 | 2024-06-10T12:57:15 | 2024-06-10T12:57:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VBfIUJPlABgCOTBzZezs | Will "Dune: Part Two" receive >50% as many perfect scores (i.e. 100) from critics on Metacritic as "Oppenheimer"? | Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for "Oppenheimer": https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/.
By my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in 27 of these reviews.
50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold "Dune: Part Two" needs to surpass.
This question will resolve YES if within... | 2024-02-19T14:45:29 | 2024-04-01T04:38:28 | 2024-04-01T04:38:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0gESq5dFd0FhELsgr5kw | Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024? | Resolves Yes if Barack Obama makes 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024
Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count.
https://twitter.com/BarackObama
Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a repost header.
[Edit: Note: threads count as one tweet] | 2024-02-19T14:18:09 | 2024-03-30T14:01:06 | 2024-03-30T14:01:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bYskhPXe8FJlCEZEda9c | Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the first regular season Kansas City Chiefs game? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-19T14:06:17 | 2024-09-05T17:14:19 | 2024-09-05T17:14:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RaD3lMYn3C4RdsJGc3ml | Will Richard Hanania support gay marriage? | This market will settle as YES if Richard Hanania comes out explicitly in support of gay marriage by the end of the night on December 31, 2024. | 2024-02-19T13:59:50 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-06T04:30:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BEVYBsoMT2hoxt4vEIex | Will Taylor Swift endorse Joe Biden by Election Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-19T08:27:49 | 2024-07-22T16:13:47 | 2024-07-22T16:13:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x9Qe2teST9XuKKkuX7d1 | Will Reddit IPO in 2024? | If Reddit is listed on a stock exchange at the end of the year, the answer is yes. | 2024-02-19T08:11:04 | 2024-03-24T11:07:26 | 2024-03-24T11:07:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4aQAeVJ00gaW3kgo8egL | Will Jimmy Carter make it through Easter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-19T08:04:12 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T04:28:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3nPfMDMhRbl813Hb4Oqu | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change. | 2024-02-18T21:34:27 | 2024-03-23T21:19:25 | 2024-03-23T21:19:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nT5Eijkqi8au0XBSq1YT | Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541 | 2024-02-18T21:24:51 | 2024-03-02T09:00:24 | 2024-03-02T09:00:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pWWl8r8G4hBOwsZ7CLu5 | Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix? | Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race.
Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541 | 2024-02-18T21:24:50 | 2024-03-02T08:48:28 | 2024-03-02T08:48:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q8kMcB7WZ5yRgTL6Mhgs | Will Alpine finish on the podium at least once in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | "Races" = main event races, sprint races do not count. There are 24 races on the calendar. | 2024-02-18T21:13:00 | 2024-11-03T18:20:05 | 2024-11-03T18:20:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q42wX7IDHYO5X0ZUaH3E | Will Mercedes win a race in the 2024 Formula 1 season? | "Races" = main event races, sprint races do not count. There are 24 races on the calendar. | 2024-02-18T21:12:11 | 2024-06-30T07:37:38 | 2024-06-30T07:37:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qmh6FKvsIKsKk2q2l9BY | Will Charles Leclerc finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points than Carlos Sainz? | Resolves NO if they tie. Bet is still live if either driver retires or switches teams mid-season. | 2024-02-18T20:45:03 | 2024-12-14T20:01:44 | 2024-12-14T20:01:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ceq54ZEWEtEcLnUgKbyd | Will Taylor Swift make a cameo in Deadpool & Wolverine? | Context: Marvel Hints at Taylor Swift's Cameo in Deadpool & Wolverine With New Poster
I will be seeing this opening night and will be photographing the end credits. This will Resolve YES if Taylor Swift has a credited acting role in the film, not merely if she’s on the soundtrack, or they uncredited archival footage o... | 2024-02-18T19:34:20 | 2024-07-24T08:44:11 | 2024-07-24T08:44:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7MJVbMPdT7dL8vYVQf7L | Will Donald Trump publicly condemn the death of Alexei Navalny before Election Day? | https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/18/trump-navalny-putin/ | 2024-02-18T18:16:52 | 2024-11-04T20:59:00 | 2024-11-04T22:16:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CAsd1ETtTnnq9tdXgAvr | Will the US recognize a Palestinian state before the election? | The Hudson Institute apparently seems to think so?
https://twitter.com/mpceddington/status/1758148260227613002 | 2024-02-18T17:44:26 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-06T00:27:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xA7vNr9MvaifMIt3gaa1 | Will the House pass a CR to avoid shutdown with bipartisan support by March 1? | Resolves YES if the US House passes a Continuing Resolution to avoid government shutdown with both Republican and Democratic votes (at least one vote from each party) by end of day March 1 (ET). Otherwise NO.
Only a Continuing Resolution will count. If final appropriations bill(s) are passed, that doesn't count for th... | 2024-02-18T15:53:41 | 2024-02-29T17:51:19 | 2024-02-29T17:51:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QO1kMnPLftW6NDRevxjW | Will RFK Jr. win more than 10% of the vote in any state or district in the 2024 presidential election? | Resolves YES if he gets more than 10% of the vote in any state, the District of Columbia, or one of Maine or Nebraska's Congressional districts. | 2024-02-18T15:13:02 | 2024-11-06T06:18:57 | 2024-11-06T06:18:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n3fIyGBWSO1yNBwGsTt1 | Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for three consecutive weeks? | Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.
If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Dem... | 2024-02-18T13:50:37 | 2024-09-02T07:51:45 | 2024-09-02T07:51:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ySOCYALNdV8f20cEUgU4 | Will $NVDA close higher than $750 after earnings? | Nvidia anticipated earnings on Wednesday 2/21
If the closing price on 2/22 is higher than $750, then it's a YES. | 2024-02-18T13:26:36 | 2024-02-22T13:33:26 | 2024-02-22T13:33:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FUuCk1juttCDX5lzr0Dg | Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for four consecutive weeks? | Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election, currently presumed to be Joe Biden. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.
If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee... | 2024-02-18T12:15:45 | 2024-09-18T12:20:06 | 2024-09-18T12:20:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dx0mLjkVP8G2tvG4l1im | Will 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than 'Dune' (2021)? | Dune (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics’ score) of 83%
Resolves YES if Dune: Part Two (2024) receives a score of 84% or higher two weeks after release
Resolves NO if it receives 83% or lower
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-dune-part-two-2024-have-a-high-3dc76c086279) | 2024-02-18T10:33:20 | 2024-03-15T23:59:00 | 2024-03-16T00:07:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wnHLcgg9hZ5EjTKgGO5q | Will Marlon Vera beat Sean O'Malley at UFC 299? | Sean O'Malley and Marlon Vera are scheduled to fight on March 9th, 2024 at a UFC event in Miami, Florida.
If Marlon Vera wins, this market will resolve to YES.
If Sean O'Malley wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO.
If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest ... | 2024-02-18T08:29:58 | 2024-03-09T22:25:22 | 2024-03-09T22:25:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Wr4MSYCH2nX25GfFTLbC | Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of February 2025? | Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about.
If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll probably count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to game... | 2024-02-18T07:34:35 | 2025-02-28T08:35:57 | 2025-02-28T08:35:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tl3YiCaq9qMsaFTVNEMk | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 6,000.00 before 4,000.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 4,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-18).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,000.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-02-18T06:35:32 | 2024-11-08T10:15:02 | 2024-11-08T10:15:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6hYD2rWpYvTquhDnufcj | Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,500.00 before 4,500.00? | Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,500.00 or 4,500.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-18).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,500.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,500.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minut... | 2024-02-18T06:32:05 | 2024-06-20T07:17:09 | 2024-06-20T07:17:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-czrQaOtocO95BoDb9WWU | Will all hell break loose in Russia within a month after the 2024 presidential election? [SEE DESCRIPTION] | A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
This resolves YES if I subjectively think that all hell broke loose in Russia no earlier than 17 March 2024 and no later than 17 April 2024.
If the same level of oppression and censorship continues, it is not sufficient to resolve YES, even though the... | 2024-02-18T04:06:39 | 2024-04-17T12:59:00 | 2024-04-18T02:57:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-niVbua4JWJv208J62681 | The New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two negative reviews. Will the New Yorker give "Dune: Part Two" a positive review? | Context: According to Rotten Tomatoes, the New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two different negative (i.e. rotten) reviews.
Richard Brody:
The movie's stripped-down material world correlates with a stripped-down emotional one-narrow, facile, and unambiguous.
Anthony Lane:
One's eye is at first dazzled, then sated, and ... | 2024-02-17T22:39:54 | 2024-03-08T09:04:21 | 2024-03-08T09:04:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UiCgCnK1NsWYAbLBrVao | Will Joe Biden voluntarily withdraw from the nomination as speculated by Cenk and ezra Klein? | If Biden voluntarily withdraws from his candidacy at any point prior to Election Day, this resolves to yes. | 2024-02-17T21:53:15 | 2024-07-30T11:21:46 | 2024-07-30T11:21:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4yLp8i48WjUHRF6xdlD4 | Will the NYT review of "Dune: Part Two" explicitly reference "The Empire Strikes Back"? | This market resolves YES if the first review (logged by Rotten Tomatoes) from the New York Times for "Dune: Part Two" explicitly references the movie "The Empire Strikes Back".
For context, the NYT (Manohla Dargas) review for "Dune" (2021) references several classic movies (Apocalypse Now, Lawrence of Arabia, etc), an... | 2024-02-17T17:27:58 | 2024-02-29T20:20:10 | 2024-02-29T20:22:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XuOplNIKINcmS2DJTqHr | Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks? [RCP] | Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election.
As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023.
If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual D... | 2024-02-17T16:40:39 | 2024-08-22T07:50:34 | 2024-08-22T07:50:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SjvISa3uLYvkFDrHEsxU | Will video generation be included in ChatGPT Plus on or before March 31st, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-17T16:20:08 | 2024-03-31T05:59:00 | 2024-04-01T18:19:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JIlKOIL3lCQJ0mBCQe4i | Will Bitcoin reach $54321.00 before Washington's Birthday? (Feb 22) | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-17T15:44:43 | 2024-02-22T05:35:40 | 2024-02-22T05:35:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JXerbchbaFLslrYoWMZG | Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2025? | Note: This is an effort to make relatively objective, transparent Manifold markets that predict AI capabilities. I won't trade in these markets because there will inevitably be some subjectivity, and I'll try to be responsive with clarifications in the comments (which I will add to the market description). Feedback wel... | 2024-02-17T10:04:34 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:39:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hYtOFlVXFP7kmZZi8X4J | Will "Dune: Part Two" account for >80% of the total domestic box office during its opening weekend? | The Numbers has a weekend tracker for each year: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/released-in-2024
I will resolve this based on the column "No. 1 / Combined" [1] for the weekend of March 1st.
For example, "Dune" (2021) released on October 22nd, and its "No. 1 / Combined" colu... | 2024-02-17T10:01:30 | 2024-03-04T14:57:52 | 2024-03-04T14:57:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1TG18jtaorMvsw5uloTF | [Subsidized] Will someone other than Biden or Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election? | Resolution criteria: if someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election then this resolves Yes. Resolves No if either of them win.
Trying to judge the sentiment on the likelihood of someone other than Biden or Trump winning the election. While the probability still seems high that w... | 2024-02-17T09:05:29 | 2024-11-06T03:50:33 | 2024-11-06T03:50:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XeF1CPaWJKjzFMdlLcEC | Will Sora be released before Nov 2024? | Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before November 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-... | 2024-02-17T06:01:15 | 2024-11-03T14:59:00 | 2024-11-06T00:24:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DL6iHBqDgp2QLAkFn0D | Will the winner of the Candidates Tournament 2024 be 30+ years old? | Nepomniatchi, Caruana and Nakamura are over 30. | 2024-02-17T01:56:56 | 2024-04-22T07:46:26 | 2024-04-22T07:46:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-aJ94x8QuSYHOEoZLqXsi | Will the Conservative Party win fewer than 165 seats at the next General Election? (their worst performance since 1906) | In 1997, Tony Blair won a landslide majority and crushed the Conservatives leaving them on just 165 seats.
This was the lowest seat total recorded for the second largest party since 1935 and the lowest seat total for the Tories since 1906.
The Tories are trailing in the polls and showing poorly in by-elections and lo... | 2024-02-17T01:18:43 | 2024-07-05T03:28:47 | 2024-07-05T03:28:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gsjQhjAo8SVg94p1edy7 | Will RFK Jr. receive Secret Service protection before election day? | Resolves YES if RFK Jr. is granted secret service protection before election day, and NO otherwise. | 2024-02-16T23:49:06 | 2024-07-15T12:59:18 | 2024-07-15T12:59:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RryFjDx8UgNrT7qE6uHf | Israel will invade Lebanon before May 2024 | Will resolve as yes if the IDF spokesman announces the IDF entering Lebanon.
Air raids, artillery fire, or surgical ground raids will not count. Only large scale ground operation. | 2024-02-16T23:07:41 | 2024-04-30T14:59:00 | 2024-05-01T03:12:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GjRE32MK8lajwDZ05Jd2 | Will any movie be #1 at the box office for at least 4 different weekends within 2024? | For source, I will use The Numbers 2024 (domestic) weekend tracker: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/released-in-2024
For each weekend, the page lists a "No. 1 Movie". This market resolves YES if there is any movie in 2024 listed for 4 different weekends on this page (however ... | 2024-02-16T21:36:44 | 2024-08-27T10:03:22 | 2024-08-27T10:03:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xBuGfzGjdUl2HWVuAYzP | Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 450k subs by the end of February 2024? | Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.
[image]Summary:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.
1) h3h3 1st coverage
2) h3h3 2nd coverage
3) h3h3 3rd coverage
Will Vaush's main youtube ... | 2024-02-16T18:54:49 | 2024-03-01T00:07:16 | 2024-03-01T00:07:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-luZpDm5z70GQM0rcZnBb | Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 455k subs by the end of February 2024? | Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel.
[image]Summary:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further.
1) h3h3 1st coverage
2) h3h3 2nd coverage
3) h3h3 3rd coverage
Will Vaush's main youtub... | 2024-02-16T18:53:31 | 2024-02-25T09:06:59 | 2024-02-25T09:06:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i3CXLE5pm7HQgoytBlMw | Will Bitcoin price surpass $70,000 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-02-16T18:38:45 | 2024-03-09T08:11:25 | 2024-03-09T08:11:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LWpULlsl2EJjzzHMw8Ze | Will Bitcoin price surpass $60,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from Feb 16th | 2024-02-16T18:37:47 | 2024-02-28T05:27:10 | 2024-02-28T05:27:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f4FQJpqejVX2XPSoKEEs | Will Bitcoin price surpass $59,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from Feb 16th | 2024-02-16T18:37:40 | 2024-02-28T05:26:49 | 2024-02-28T05:26:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8z0LM4UIyCXqEIhAxW4f | Will Bitcoin price surpass $58,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from Feb 16th | 2024-02-16T18:37:33 | 2024-02-28T05:10:13 | 2024-02-28T05:10:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tUjcXKzuI7D7Gq6VyN3W | Will Bitcoin price surpass $57,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from Feb 16th | 2024-02-16T18:37:25 | 2024-02-27T06:44:16 | 2024-02-27T06:44:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6T9skqZWXGduO8sgamVw | Will Bitcoin price surpass $56,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from Feb 16th | 2024-02-16T18:37:17 | 2024-02-26T18:12:15 | 2024-02-26T18:12:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xAZuA8q7dQU5xiWSLMXl | Will Napoli beat Barcelona during regular time on Wed, Feb 21, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺 | ⚽ Napoli vs Barcelona
📅 Date: Wednesday, February 21, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Napoli has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time pl... | 2024-02-16T16:01:42 | 2024-02-21T15:00:00 | 2024-02-21T15:01:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lZT6JLzoLmr7xvM6dSDK | Will Liverpool beat Luton during regular time on Wed, Feb 21, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Liverpool vs Luton
📅 Date: Wednesday, February 21, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus st... | 2024-02-16T16:01:38 | 2024-02-21T14:30:00 | 2024-02-21T15:01:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-97SZrbkErh2Q7f2f33Un | Will Pfizer OPEN higher than 27.62 on February 20? | Pfizer Inc
Resolves according to Google Open Price
PFE opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 27.62
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | 2024-02-16T15:57:57 | 2024-02-20T10:09:01 | 2024-02-20T10:09:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yttJr5Lz8gne6QP5HZQo | Will Microsoft OPEN higher than 404.06 on February 20? | Microsoft Corp
Resolves according to Google Open Price
MSFT opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 404.06
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickte... | 2024-02-16T15:55:06 | 2024-02-20T10:03:45 | 2024-02-20T10:03:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y4V0NJvE7wGd6GeFjyIC | Will Google OPEN higher than 141.76 on February 20? | Alphabet Inc Class C
Resolves according to Google Open Price
GOOG opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 141.76
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and N... | 2024-02-16T15:27:56 | 2024-02-20T10:10:45 | 2024-02-20T10:10:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-35OHLHjIbXJyelFBiyfk | Will Apple OPEN higher than 182.31 on February 20? | Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Open Price
AAPL opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 182.31.
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | 2024-02-16T15:25:00 | 2024-02-20T10:11:12 | 2024-02-20T10:11:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z2r05VKb5kF0daouXsoA | Will Nvidia close higher than 726.13 on February 23? | NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Close Price
NVDA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 726.13.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christ... | 2024-02-16T15:23:19 | 2024-02-23T12:00:00 | 2024-02-23T14:12:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ilA75VqqE35Y9Tip8f8g | Will Nvidia OPEN higher than 726.13 on February 20? | NVIDIA Corp
Resolves according to Google Open Price
NVDA opens at 9:30am EST
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 726.13.
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten | 2024-02-16T15:21:13 | 2024-02-20T10:12:07 | 2024-02-20T10:12:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bzotts62gNcNeokTjtx5 | Will Biden step aside/withdraw from the U.S. Presidential race prior to the Democratic National Convention? | The convention begins on August 19. Resolves Yes if Biden voluntarily withdraws from the race for any reason. Resolves N/A if he dies or becomes incapacitated/unable to fulfill the duties of President. | 2024-02-16T14:39:41 | 2024-07-21T11:35:55 | 2024-07-21T11:35:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f5TCiZgTmjbdghLhjuQr | Can Sora make an accurate clock before 2025? | TL;DR: Will anyone generate a video of a clock using Sora such that it accurately counts the number of seconds passed during 20 seconds?
Background
OpenAI recently released a new text to video model called Sora. The model is good at generating realistic looking videos but many of the videos it generates have a weird ... | 2024-02-16T11:58:10 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-03T04:03:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yAvgPhOAzp5lAM6K2njS | Will Ezra Klein say he thinks Biden should be the Democratic Nominee, before August 1st? | Today, Ezra Klein said in the New York Times that Biden should be convinced to step aside and that the Democratic Party should pick a different nominee at the convention in August.
I think the democratic party establishment's Overton Window could be considered to centered around what Ezra Klein says in the New York Ti... | 2024-02-16T10:28:00 | 2024-08-01T23:59:00 | 2024-08-04T03:50:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uJieXjZItbk786Ajsyvs | [Metaculus] Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald ...of presidential immunity? | Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21418/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00... | 2024-02-16T09:03:14 | 2024-02-28T15:38:35 | 2024-02-28T15:38:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-687nR2ur7vxnzuS0xPZA | Will Sora be released before Oct 2024? | Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before October 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-b... | 2024-02-16T08:35:27 | 2024-10-01T03:27:44 | 2024-10-01T03:27:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rM08VrBwa1wkKH4Tuy71 | Will Fani Willis be removed from the Georgia election subversion case against Donald Trump? | Trial to determine if she should be removed is currently on its second day. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/live-updates-fani-willis-hearing-trump-election-case/72620596007/
This will be resolved when Judge McAfee renders his decision.
If she resigns and no decision is issued this will resolve ... | 2024-02-16T08:01:59 | 2024-03-16T06:02:39 | 2024-03-16T06:02:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j2WUQcscW4SdgP4Nvhjq | Will Joe Biden mention AI in the state of the union address | If Joe Biden mentions ai or an ai product this resolves yes | 2024-02-16T06:33:03 | 2024-03-07T19:28:13 | 2024-03-07T19:28:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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