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forecasting

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mani-quEGbdmBHtX9P2ppXQOz
Will GPT-4's successor be released within 24 hours?
Needs to be accessible by members of the public. Can be behind a paywall. Can be wait-listed as long as some people not affiliated with OpenAI at all have access to it.
2024-02-21T07:10:24
2024-02-22T07:00:00
2024-02-22T07:14:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nw958BEe2LqsSCZi9JUp
Will Lindsay Hoyle still be Speaker of the House at the end of March?
Resolves YES if the Rt Hon Sir Lindsay Hoyle holds the position of Speaker of the House of Commons at market close.
2024-02-21T06:07:16
2024-03-31T15:59:00
2024-03-31T23:46:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gE4k38s9k9CJmeVExLc2
Will Real Madrid beat Sevilla during regular time on Sun, Feb 25, 2024? - La Liga
⚽ Real Madrid vs Sevilla 📅 Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: La Liga 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Real Madrid has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Sevilla has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-02-21T05:29:59
2024-02-25T15:00:00
2024-02-25T15:01:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dJEcosHQnYS2lew7Fsn1
Will Wolves beat Sheffield Utd during regular time on Sun, Feb 25, 2024? - Premier League
⚽ Wolves vs Sheffield Utd 📅 Date: Sunday, February 25, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 13:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Wolves has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Sheffield Utd has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-02-21T05:29:41
2024-02-25T08:01:30
2024-02-25T08:01:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YUNJPyu38b5ztGhkZuLq
Will a video game with AI-rendered graphics get 1 million downloads by 2030?
To qualify, a video game must have its graphics rendered by AI in real time. An AI should be rendering graphics at least 50% of the time in an average playthrough. When the AI is rendering graphics, it should generate at least one image per second. The images should generally depend on the very recent actions of the player - for instance, the player character immediately starts moving left when you press the left button. It's okay if certain parts of the game are not AI-rendered, like UI elements. However, it doesn't count if the AI is just starting with e.g. a 3D mesh rendering and postprocessing it to make it prettier or fill in frames. It has to generate the video more-or-less from scratch. Specifically, I'd look for a system that generates visual elements like characters and scenery during gameplay and simulates their motion, doing this entirely through ML rather than programmatically, similar to OpenAI's Sora. It's okay if the AI starts with a premade textual or visual prompt, but has to be able to generate and animate new visual elements. The following is speculation, not resolution criteria: What I'm imagining is a very open-ended game where the AI makes up new landscapes and encounters for you on the fly, sort of like the Mind Game in the book "Ender's Game." This seems doable by a very fast version of OpenAI's Sora, where you just ask it to generate video game footage on-the-fly and conditional on the player's button presses. I may bet in this market. Markets with the same resolution criteria @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-3b1136cb8e7c @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-30dbd8e5eede @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g-2e37a190fefe (this market) @/CDBiddulph/will-a-video-game-with-airendered-g
2024-02-20T21:41:29
2024-11-20T09:07:20
2024-11-20T09:07:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V3EAqjfyVCI3PHz1CQUH
Will Bitcoin drop below $50000 before the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history start counting from market creation date
2024-02-20T21:00:12
2024-04-01T06:03:29
2024-04-01T06:03:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PgCey8v2KMTGIZ0WNfmh
Will Bitcoin surpass $65000 before the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history start counting from market creation date
2024-02-20T20:57:15
2024-03-04T04:50:44
2024-03-04T04:50:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-udcGvk2VAq1n4GiJMhWW
Will Bitcoin surpass $64000 before the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history start counting from market creation date
2024-02-20T20:57:03
2024-03-03T18:38:43
2024-03-03T18:38:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UVtdzkriISK0r33EQAEc
Will Bitcoin close above $70000 at the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
2024-02-20T20:42:31
2024-04-01T05:43:54
2024-04-01T05:43:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WSavu6KYjmA3ZpgqNMYA
Will Bitcoin close above $65000 at the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
2024-02-20T20:42:20
2024-04-01T05:43:02
2024-04-01T05:43:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-huvDRWtpCdlSdeHqXOhE
Will Bitcoin close above $60000 at the end of Mar 2024?
Resolve according to Yahoo! Finance Historical Data https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history
2024-02-20T20:42:08
2024-04-01T05:43:22
2024-04-01T05:43:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-444M9p8sj9FibR3DVSUL
Will Deadpool & Wolverine be the highest grossing film of 2024?
On December 31st, 2024 will Deadpool & Wolverine be the highest grossing film on the BoxOfficeMojo 2024 Worldwide Box Office?
2024-02-20T19:35:37
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T16:06:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CAylAqCD0vsuZQif3Eln
Will there be a day in March where the domestic (daily) gross of "Dune: Part Two" is <$1 million?
"Dune: Part Two" releases on March 1st, 2024. Source: I will use the "Domestic Daily" tab of https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/?ref_=bo_gr_rls This question resolves NO if BoxOfficeMojo lists daily (domestic) gross >=$1 million for each day in March, and YES if it lists at least one day with a gross <$1 million. Bonus context: For "Dune" (2021), the first day with domestic gross <$1 million was November 8th (18 days after release). For comparison, the first day "Oppenheimer" dipped below $1 million was August 28th (39 days after release). Thus, if we looked at a comparable time period (i.e. the first month of release), "Dune" (2021) would have resolved YES, and "Oppenheimer" would have resolved NO.
2024-02-20T18:54:13
2024-04-02T05:56:15
2024-04-02T05:56:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PuVV0cUvyORbPZ0YaFBR
Will Bitcoin reach $100K before the One Piece manga ends?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T17:34:43
2024-12-04T20:06:36
2024-12-04T20:06:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ndWyk5anMvJmOPNexrP9
Will “Uncommitted” meet the delegate threshold in the Michigan Democratic primary on February 27?
Resolves Yes if Uncommitted gets 15% or more of the vote statewide or in any district according to NYT. Example ballot: [image]
2024-02-20T16:01:53
2024-02-28T08:41:27
2024-02-28T08:41:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7ZidoyhmMOgqTCWnygjf
Will Nikki Haley drop out before Sweden joins NATO?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T12:58:13
2024-03-06T08:28:56
2024-03-06T08:28:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EBWslvX0vhnIMhlwQMiZ
Will Nikki Haley drop out by March 11th 2024 at 11:26 AM EST?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T12:55:29
2024-03-06T09:49:38
2024-03-06T09:49:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZRIxwcg5EhQBJlpotDqW
Will Nikki Haley drop out by the end of April 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T12:52:50
2024-03-06T18:41:06
2024-03-06T18:41:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2deqgabvlKmI5oYGGwou
Will Europe be competitive in the LLM race compared to OpenAI or Google at the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if a European model surpasses the top models of any of the two companies on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard on the day of Dec 31, 2024. Retrieval/search/agents-augmented does not count. (So Bard will be excluded)
2024-02-20T11:06:44
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-31T23:49:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vuJ05i8uaXDeauJbyKnx
Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President by March 20?
Nikki Haley has vowed to stay in the race till Super Tuesday. One turning point could be March 19, where she may be mathematically eliminated from contention. [image]Will she drop out then? (includes March 20 to allow for a speech announcing it) Relevant markets: (https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out-from-a58cd86b4439) drop out before Mar 16 https://manifold.markets/BigJohnisBack/nikki-haley-will-drop-out-of-the-ra?r=TWF0dGZy drop out before Mar 31 https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra drop out before Apr 30 https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-710b1b67355e
2024-02-20T09:39:44
2024-03-06T06:52:15
2024-03-06T07:13:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-hfFLRLSmqQjV2Rihcoyo
Will a sudden death shake up the 2024 US Presidential election?
Resolves YES if one of the candidates, running mates, or another person key to the election cycle by my judgement (ex: a supreme court justice deciding on the Trump case) dies before the election takes place. NA if uncertain, or I can poll Manifold to see if they think the death counts.
2024-02-20T09:10:26
2024-12-09T19:07:48
2024-12-09T19:07:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qQyOnrfvfJd76pbE2PtK
Will Bitcoin reach $60K OR Sweden Join NATO OR Trump Announce VP OR Contrapoints release a video before EOM February?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T08:35:05
2024-02-28T07:10:49
2024-02-28T07:10:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-NJomUsvYGfeJ8IeIRBft
Will all living US presidents attend Jimmy Carters's funeral?
Will everyone who is a living former or current president at the time of Jimmy Carters's funeral attend the funeral? Related (https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-former-presidents-a)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-us-presidents-atten-ae14e3553047?r=QnJ1bm9K)(https://manifold.markets/embed/BrunoJ/will-all-living-us-presidents-atten?r=QnJ1bm9K)
2024-02-20T06:57:43
2025-01-09T08:19:53
2025-01-09T08:19:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tPZC2Uo1yKmols66Vvag
Will Julian Assange be successfully extradited to the US before April 2024? 🇬🇧🔜🇺🇸
Context: Julian Assange makes last-ditch attempt in UK court to avoid extradition to the US Will Julian Assange be on US soil before April 1st? Relevant text: The two-day hearing will examine whether the embattled Australian should be granted leave to appeal a 2022 extradition decision made by former UK Home Secretary Priti Patel. If the court’s decision goes against Assange, he must be extradited within 28 days. However, his legal team is expected to apply to the European Court of Human Rights for an intervention to ground the flight through a rule 39 order.
2024-02-20T06:12:16
2024-03-31T23:59:00
2024-04-01T07:01:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AyiPd67Gjjlu3pEj8QP7
Will Joe Biden complete a second term as US president?
This market resolves YES if Joe Biden is still the US president on the morning of January 20, 2029, when he hands over power to his successor. It resolves NO if someone else is president at that time.
2024-02-20T05:21:57
2025-01-23T01:05:10
2025-01-23T01:05:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RLJW21cXclUJeBOibKcK
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $726.13 per share on February 23, 2024?
Weekly prediction for NVDA. Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $726.13 USD on the closing price of 23 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
2024-02-20T04:42:06
2024-02-23T14:18:09
2024-02-23T14:18:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-perbRdk4JI7WOSMhnMlQ
Will Fani Willis be removed from the Trump Fulton County case?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T01:23:47
2024-03-15T07:42:54
2024-03-15T07:42:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Gyy9RrFHTqUZIZpyJ0AL
Will a resolution pass in the UN that calls for a ceasefire in Gaza by the end of March?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-20T01:06:31
2024-03-25T09:51:10
2024-03-25T09:51:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-HtscmokS9XAbNsOzfy1n
Will Bitcoin hit $57.5K in March 2024?
If Bitcoin remains at or above 57.5K on March 1st, then the question will resolve to YES.
2024-02-20T00:27:08
2024-03-01T00:27:15
2024-03-01T00:27:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YJxEuxI2tpzBErNDZecw
Will Bitcoin go below $48K in March 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-19T23:55:04
2024-03-31T23:59:00
2024-04-01T00:03:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hOZOaLtMTthlPHWY4JR1
Will Russian forces take Vuhledar in 2024?
Resolves to YES if there is broad consensus that the armed forces of Russia control all of Vuhledar within its official administrative limits, for at least 24 consecutive hours, at any point before the end of 2024. If that has not happened by the 1st of January, 2025 (local time), it resolves to NO. In case there is any ambiguity at that point as to whether the town is fully under Russian control or contested, a delay of 7 days will be added to ascertain what the exact status of the town was on the last 24 hours of 2024.
2024-02-19T23:47:18
2024-10-03T23:07:04
2024-10-03T23:07:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TNU76krovusXsxUpxrhR
Will Nikki Haley drop out before the Supreme Court makes a decision about Trump on the Colorado ballot?
Resolves 'YES' if Nikki Haley drops out of the 2024 U.S. presidential race before the U.S. Supreme Court makes a decision regarding Trump's eligibility to appear on the ballot in Colorado for the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
2024-02-19T18:07:16
2024-03-04T09:07:55
2024-03-04T09:07:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ntF1qspgWlEonirs1wzf
Will the Jordan Bernt Peterson x Steven Kenneth Bonnell II discussion be released before the end of February.
will the video/audio talk be released before the 1st of March 00:01. Good luck [image]
2024-02-19T17:36:26
2024-02-29T14:59:00
2024-02-29T18:18:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QKDdlXysE8H6d8kdSNIy
Will there be a USA government shutdown before Sweden joins NATO?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-19T15:57:56
2024-03-07T09:24:20
2024-03-07T09:24:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dihMWMgwydXbxglBjTbE
Will Apple announce their own Generative AI model at WWDC 2024?
This market will resolve YES if Apple announces a generative AI model at WWDC 2024. The model must be developed by Apple, capable of creating new data (such as text or images) based on learned patterns, and should not involve the integration of an existing model, such as GPT-4, into their products. The model must be generative in the sense that this word is commonly used. For example, the transformer-based enhanced autocomplete from WWDC 2023 would not count. In contrast, a tool that would allow users to rephrase an entire paragraph would.
2024-02-19T15:10:00
2024-06-10T12:57:15
2024-06-10T12:57:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VBfIUJPlABgCOTBzZezs
Will "Dune: Part Two" receive >50% as many perfect scores (i.e. 100) from critics on Metacritic as "Oppenheimer"?
Currently, Metacritic shows 69 (critic) reviews for "Oppenheimer": https://www.metacritic.com/movie/oppenheimer/critic-reviews/. By my count, it received a perfect score of 100 in 27 of these reviews. 50% of 27 is 13.5. This is the threshold "Dune: Part Two" needs to surpass. This question will resolve YES if within one month after release (April 1st), Metacritic has recorded 14 or more reviews for "Dune: Part Two" with the score of 100: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/ . If there are 13 or fewer reviews with the score of 100, it resolves NO. Details: For reference, Metacritic shows 68 reviews for "Dune" (2021). By my count, 8 of these reviews have a score of 100. I am not normalizing for the total number of reviews. All that matters is the total number recorded by Metacritic with a score of 100. I am allowing for a full month after release to give plenty of time for reviews to arrive. But occasionally a few reviews will appear on Metacritic more than a month after release. These will not be counted. If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.
2024-02-19T14:45:29
2024-04-01T04:38:28
2024-04-01T04:38:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0gESq5dFd0FhELsgr5kw
Will Barack Obama make 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024?
Resolves Yes if Barack Obama makes 12 or more Twitter(X) posts in Mar 2024 Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count. https://twitter.com/BarackObama Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a repost header. [Edit: Note: threads count as one tweet]
2024-02-19T14:18:09
2024-03-30T14:01:06
2024-03-30T14:01:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bYskhPXe8FJlCEZEda9c
Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at the first regular season Kansas City Chiefs game?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-19T14:06:17
2024-09-05T17:14:19
2024-09-05T17:14:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RaD3lMYn3C4RdsJGc3ml
Will Richard Hanania support gay marriage?
This market will settle as YES if Richard Hanania comes out explicitly in support of gay marriage by the end of the night on December 31, 2024.
2024-02-19T13:59:50
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-06T04:30:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BEVYBsoMT2hoxt4vEIex
Will Taylor Swift endorse Joe Biden by Election Day?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-19T08:27:49
2024-07-22T16:13:47
2024-07-22T16:13:47
no
MANIFOLD
mani-x9Qe2teST9XuKKkuX7d1
Will Reddit IPO in 2024?
If Reddit is listed on a stock exchange at the end of the year, the answer is yes.
2024-02-19T08:11:04
2024-03-24T11:07:26
2024-03-24T11:07:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4aQAeVJ00gaW3kgo8egL
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Easter?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-19T08:04:12
2024-03-31T20:59:00
2024-04-01T04:28:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3nPfMDMhRbl813Hb4Oqu
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Australian Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race Markets are resolved according to these rules, which are subject to change.
2024-02-18T21:34:27
2024-03-23T21:19:25
2024-03-23T21:19:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nT5Eijkqi8au0XBSq1YT
Will Red Bull finish 1-2 at the 2024 Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen and Sergio Perez finish first or second, in any order, at the main event race Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
2024-02-18T21:24:51
2024-03-02T09:00:24
2024-03-02T09:00:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pWWl8r8G4hBOwsZ7CLu5
Will a non-Red Bull driver win the 2024 Formula 1 Bahrain Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if anyone but Max Verstappen or Sergio Perez wins the main event race. Markets are resolved according to the following criteria: https://gist.github.com/kevinburke/190b4c7fedfae12bc8e115519f4a9541
2024-02-18T21:24:50
2024-03-02T08:48:28
2024-03-02T08:48:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Q8kMcB7WZ5yRgTL6Mhgs
Will Alpine finish on the podium at least once in the 2024 Formula 1 season?
"Races" = main event races, sprint races do not count. There are 24 races on the calendar.
2024-02-18T21:13:00
2024-11-03T18:20:05
2024-11-03T18:20:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Q42wX7IDHYO5X0ZUaH3E
Will Mercedes win a race in the 2024 Formula 1 season?
"Races" = main event races, sprint races do not count. There are 24 races on the calendar.
2024-02-18T21:12:11
2024-06-30T07:37:38
2024-06-30T07:37:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Qmh6FKvsIKsKk2q2l9BY
Will Charles Leclerc finish the 2024 Formula 1 season with more points than Carlos Sainz?
Resolves NO if they tie. Bet is still live if either driver retires or switches teams mid-season.
2024-02-18T20:45:03
2024-12-14T20:01:44
2024-12-14T20:01:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ceq54ZEWEtEcLnUgKbyd
Will Taylor Swift make a cameo in Deadpool & Wolverine?
Context: Marvel Hints at Taylor Swift's Cameo in Deadpool & Wolverine With New Poster I will be seeing this opening night and will be photographing the end credits. This will Resolve YES if Taylor Swift has a credited acting role in the film, not merely if she’s on the soundtrack, or they uncredited archival footage of her (e.g. her shows, her music videos).
2024-02-18T19:34:20
2024-07-24T08:44:11
2024-07-24T08:44:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7MJVbMPdT7dL8vYVQf7L
Will Donald Trump publicly condemn the death of Alexei Navalny before Election Day?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/02/18/trump-navalny-putin/
2024-02-18T18:16:52
2024-11-04T20:59:00
2024-11-04T22:16:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CAsd1ETtTnnq9tdXgAvr
Will the US recognize a Palestinian state before the election?
The Hudson Institute apparently seems to think so? https://twitter.com/mpceddington/status/1758148260227613002
2024-02-18T17:44:26
2024-11-05T23:59:00
2024-11-06T00:27:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xA7vNr9MvaifMIt3gaa1
Will the House pass a CR to avoid shutdown with bipartisan support by March 1?
Resolves YES if the US House passes a Continuing Resolution to avoid government shutdown with both Republican and Democratic votes (at least one vote from each party) by end of day March 1 (ET). Otherwise NO. Only a Continuing Resolution will count. If final appropriations bill(s) are passed, that doesn't count for this market.
2024-02-18T15:53:41
2024-02-29T17:51:19
2024-02-29T17:51:19
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QO1kMnPLftW6NDRevxjW
Will RFK Jr. win more than 10% of the vote in any state or district in the 2024 presidential election?
Resolves YES if he gets more than 10% of the vote in any state, the District of Columbia, or one of Maine or Nebraska's Congressional districts.
2024-02-18T15:13:02
2024-11-06T06:18:57
2024-11-06T06:18:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-n3fIyGBWSO1yNBwGsTt1
Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for three consecutive weeks?
Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023. If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A. If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 21 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No. You can find more markets like this on the Political Polling Dashboard. @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-c5811b268c10
2024-02-18T13:50:37
2024-09-02T07:51:45
2024-09-02T07:51:45
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ySOCYALNdV8f20cEUgU4
Will $NVDA close higher than $750 after earnings?
Nvidia anticipated earnings on Wednesday 2/21 If the closing price on 2/22 is higher than $750, then it's a YES.
2024-02-18T13:26:36
2024-02-22T13:33:26
2024-02-22T13:33:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FUuCk1juttCDX5lzr0Dg
Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for four consecutive weeks?
Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election, currently presumed to be Joe Biden. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023. If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A. If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 28 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No. Version of this market for two weeks: @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea
2024-02-18T12:15:45
2024-09-18T12:20:06
2024-09-18T12:20:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dx0mLjkVP8G2tvG4l1im
Will 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) have a higher Rotten Tomatoes score than 'Dune' (2021)?
Dune (2021) received a Tomatometer (critics’ score) of 83% Resolves YES if Dune: Part Two (2024) receives a score of 84% or higher two weeks after release Resolves NO if it receives 83% or lower Related market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-dune-part-two-2024-have-a-high-3dc76c086279)
2024-02-18T10:33:20
2024-03-15T23:59:00
2024-03-16T00:07:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wnHLcgg9hZ5EjTKgGO5q
Will Marlon Vera beat Sean O'Malley at UFC 299?
Sean O'Malley and Marlon Vera are scheduled to fight on March 9th, 2024 at a UFC event in Miami, Florida. If Marlon Vera wins, this market will resolve to YES. If Sean O'Malley wins or if the fight is a draw, this market will resolve to NO. If the fight is pulled from the event or the fight is declared a No Contest on the night, this market will resolve to N/A.
2024-02-18T08:29:58
2024-03-09T22:25:22
2024-03-09T22:25:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Wr4MSYCH2nX25GfFTLbC
Will Nintendo release a successor to their Switch console before the end of February 2025?
Feel feel to ask questions in the comments about the resolution criteria if there's anything you're wondering about. If it can play games that the old Switch can't, then even if it's fully backwards compatible, I'll probably count it as a successor (as in the case of game boy advance to game boy colour, or wii to gamecube). If the Switch can play all the games that the successor can, then I probably won't count it (e.g. 2DS, Switch OLED, Advance SP). Resolves on release, not on announcement of release date.
2024-02-18T07:34:35
2025-02-28T08:35:57
2025-02-28T08:35:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Tl3YiCaq9qMsaFTVNEMk
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 6,000.00 before 4,000.00?
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 6,000.00 or 4,000.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-18). Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,000.00 Resolves YES if $SPX >= 6,000.00 I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so. For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance. If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market. Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source. (https://manifold.markets/embed/Lion/bulls-vs-bears-will-the-sp-500-hit-vjt56ivlet)
2024-02-18T06:35:32
2024-11-08T10:15:02
2024-11-08T10:15:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6hYD2rWpYvTquhDnufcj
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,500.00 before 4,500.00?
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,500.00 or 4,500.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-18). Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,500.00 Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,500.00 I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay). This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so. For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance. If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market. Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
2024-02-18T06:32:05
2024-06-20T07:17:09
2024-06-20T07:17:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-czrQaOtocO95BoDb9WWU
Will all hell break loose in Russia within a month after the 2024 presidential election? [SEE DESCRIPTION]
A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024. This resolves YES if I subjectively think that all hell broke loose in Russia no earlier than 17 March 2024 and no later than 17 April 2024. If the same level of oppression and censorship continues, it is not sufficient to resolve YES, even though the current level of oppression really sucks. The spirit of the question is about a sudden drastic worsening in the level of oppression, safety, quality of life etc. Things that may be sufficient to resolve YES: Repression turning from targeted actions (even when there is a lot of targets) to blanket measures, Great Purge-style. A possible distinctive sign of this is a drastic simplification in the legal process of arresting and imprisoning someone, like the introduction of troikas in the USSR or the law of suspects in revolutionary France. Something triggering a new wave of mass emigration, such as a new mobilization. A drastic drop in the quality of life, such as a mass starvation. A return to death penalty, and its wide application. (Death penalty in Russia has not been used since 1996.) A significant political instability, such as a new rebellion attempt. (The last attempt was in June 2023 by the Wagner Group) This is not at all an exhaustive list - just a couple of examples about the spirit of the question. The intuition behind this question is that since unpopular measures are not to be taken immediately before the elections, something terrible might come after the elections are finished. Since this market is very subjective, I will not trade in it. If I'm not sure which way to resolve, I may or may not freeze the market, consult the traders, and / or resolve N/A. Feel free to propose more specific criteria in the comments. EDIT: After the Crocus city hall attack in Moscow, we discussed in the comments with @KongoLandwalker if terrorist attacks are in the spirit of the question, and count as "all hell breaking loose". I decided that the question is if said attack represents one random event or is part of a bigger story that represents larger change in Russia. So: One terrorist attack may or may not be enough for a YES resolution, depending on factors like the scale of the attack, and other events surrounding it. A chain of independent terrorist attacks (i. e. at least two attacks) is a YES if the attacks are all large enough (possible criterion: if the US embassy in Russia issues a statement calling it a terrorist attack, then it's large enough; here's such a statement for the Crocus city hall attack)
2024-02-18T04:06:39
2024-04-17T12:59:00
2024-04-18T02:57:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-niVbua4JWJv208J62681
The New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two negative reviews. Will the New Yorker give "Dune: Part Two" a positive review?
Context: According to Rotten Tomatoes, the New Yorker gave "Dune" (2021) two different negative (i.e. rotten) reviews. Richard Brody: The movie's stripped-down material world correlates with a stripped-down emotional one-narrow, facile, and unambiguous. Anthony Lane: One's eye is at first dazzled, then sated, and eventually tired by this pitiless inflation of scale. Resolution details: Rotten Tomatoes will be the source to determine whether the review is positive, as well as what qualifies as a "review by the New Yorker": https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two I will check Rotten Tomatoes one week after release. If there is any positive ("fresh") review logged for the New Yorker, this resolves YES. If there are only negative reviews, it resolves NO. If no review has been logged by the New Yorker, I will wait until the first review is logged, and resolve it YES if that review is positive & NO if that review is negative. If Rotten Tomatoes does not show any New Yorker review after one month, I will resolve it N/A. Note: for "Dune" (2021), there were two reviews that qualify, but I have no idea what they'll release this time (and there only needs to be one positive review to resolve this yes). If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.
2024-02-17T22:39:54
2024-03-08T09:04:21
2024-03-08T09:04:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UiCgCnK1NsWYAbLBrVao
Will Joe Biden voluntarily withdraw from the nomination as speculated by Cenk and ezra Klein?
If Biden voluntarily withdraws from his candidacy at any point prior to Election Day, this resolves to yes.
2024-02-17T21:53:15
2024-07-30T11:21:46
2024-07-30T11:21:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4yLp8i48WjUHRF6xdlD4
Will the NYT review of "Dune: Part Two" explicitly reference "The Empire Strikes Back"?
This market resolves YES if the first review (logged by Rotten Tomatoes) from the New York Times for "Dune: Part Two" explicitly references the movie "The Empire Strikes Back". For context, the NYT (Manohla Dargas) review for "Dune" (2021) references several classic movies (Apocalypse Now, Lawrence of Arabia, etc), and it references George Lucas, but it never explicitly refers to "The Empire Strikes Back". Note: this reference to George Lucas would not be sufficient. There needs to be an unambiguous reference to the film itself (it doesn't need to use the exact title of the movie, but only if it's very clear what movie it's referring to). This cinematic reference has been common in early reactions to the film. If any scenarios for resolution are unclear, please ask.
2024-02-17T17:27:58
2024-02-29T20:20:10
2024-02-29T20:22:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XuOplNIKINcmS2DJTqHr
Will Donald Trump ever lose his lead in the polls before Election Day 2024 for two consecutive weeks? [RCP]
Resolution will be based on the RCP 2-way polling average between Trump and his opponent in the US presidential election. As of market creation Trump is ahead by 1.1%, 44.9 to 43.8. He has had the lead since September 2023. If Biden ceases to be the presumed Democratic Party nominee, the average against the actual Democratic Party nominee will be used once that nominee is determined. If someone besides Donald Trump becomes the presumed Republican Party nominee before he loses the lead, this market will resolve N/A. If Trump is ever behind in the RCP polling average for 14 consecutive days before November 5th, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise, it resolves No. You can find more markets like this on the Political Polling Dashboard. @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-4db933701e15 @/ManifoldPolitics/will-donald-trump-ever-lose-his-lea-c5811b268c10
2024-02-17T16:40:39
2024-08-22T07:50:34
2024-08-22T07:50:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-SjvISa3uLYvkFDrHEsxU
Will video generation be included in ChatGPT Plus on or before March 31st, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-17T16:20:08
2024-03-31T05:59:00
2024-04-01T18:19:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JIlKOIL3lCQJ0mBCQe4i
Will Bitcoin reach $54321.00 before Washington's Birthday? (Feb 22)
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-17T15:44:43
2024-02-22T05:35:40
2024-02-22T05:35:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JXerbchbaFLslrYoWMZG
Will AI generate a decent commercial before 2025?
Note: This is an effort to make relatively objective, transparent Manifold markets that predict AI capabilities. I won't trade in these markets because there will inevitably be some subjectivity, and I'll try to be responsive with clarifications in the comments (which I will add to the market description). Feedback welcome. Specifications: By "decent," I mean that a serious large-sized company would plausibly pay market price to run it for at least 30 seconds in a normal TV context. Ideally, a company will actually run it, but it's okay if the commercial doesn't run but clearly could be (e.g., the company just puts it on YouTube but never pays for TV placement). There is no restriction on the type of commercial. It can be funny, serious, animated, silent, abstract, etc. Ideally the YES case would be made by showing the AI-generated commercial alongside several comparable human commercials, but that's not required. The easiest examples I have in mind are perfume commercials. The commercial should not merely succeed because an AI made it. It should be good enough to plausibly be aired if humans made it. Ideally, the commercial would run on TV before it's widely known to be AI-generated, but that seems unlikely and certainly isn't required. By "generate," I mean the entire commercial should be produced without human intervention (e.g., collating AI clips, adding a soundtrack, adding logos), but humans can select the best AI-generated commercials. The AI system doesn't need to exclusively take text instructions as input, but other specific content should be limited to what's necessary (e.g., a logo, high-resolution images from multiple angles of the product being advertised). The commercial needs to match a real company (e.g., a real logo and product). If enough details about how the video was made aren't publicly available, I'll take my best guess (i.e., over 50% chance it met each criterion). I will probably consult other AI researchers or engineers if this is contentious. The spirit of this market (which will be used to resolve ambiguities that aren't resolved by explicit criteria) is whether the AI is capable enough to do all the different tasks it takes to produce a commercial, such as not just generating individual video shots but sequencing them together in a compelling way.
2024-02-17T10:04:34
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T15:39:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hYtOFlVXFP7kmZZi8X4J
Will "Dune: Part Two" account for >80% of the total domestic box office during its opening weekend?
The Numbers has a weekend tracker for each year: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/released-in-2024 I will resolve this based on the column "No. 1 / Combined" [1] for the weekend of March 1st. For example, "Dune" (2021) released on October 22nd, and its "No. 1 / Combined" column lists 42%. Thus, it would have resolved NO. This is the equivalent number I will use, however it is computed. (Note that this is all domestic). I will use whatever level of precision is displayed by The Numbers (i.e. 80% resolves NO, regardless of the true decimal). For further reference: For an example of a very high %, "Spider Man: No Way Home" accounted for 92% of the box office on its opening weekend. Similarly, "Dune: Part Two" has almost no competition on its opening weekend, although its projected opening is fairly low compared to most that break >80%. The highest proportion for 2024 so far is 29% ("Argylle" on its opening weekend). [1] This assumes that "Dune: Part Two" is #1 at the box office. It will, but if it somehow isn't, then this market must naturally resolve NO (it cannot be >50%), and so I won't need to compute anything further.
2024-02-17T10:01:30
2024-03-04T14:57:52
2024-03-04T14:57:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1TG18jtaorMvsw5uloTF
[Subsidized] Will someone other than Biden or Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election?
Resolution criteria: if someone other than Joe Biden or Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential election then this resolves Yes. Resolves No if either of them win. Trying to judge the sentiment on the likelihood of someone other than Biden or Trump winning the election. While the probability still seems high that we will see a Biden v Trump match up in Nov, there are also hurdles that could take either or both of them out of the picture. A significant percentage of republican voters said they will not support Trump if he is convicted of a felony. Recent rumors have been flying about the possibility of Biden forgoing the nomination given his dwindling support among the demographics that helped him win in 2020. I do not participate in polls I create.
2024-02-17T09:05:29
2024-11-06T03:50:33
2024-11-06T03:50:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XeF1CPaWJKjzFMdlLcEC
Will Sora be released before Nov 2024?
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before November 1st 2024 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20 (this question) Other questions for Nov 2024: @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab @/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-nov @/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20 (this question) In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date. A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question. If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
2024-02-17T06:01:15
2024-11-03T14:59:00
2024-11-06T00:24:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5DL6iHBqDgp2QLAkFn0D
Will the winner of the Candidates Tournament 2024 be 30+ years old?
Nepomniatchi, Caruana and Nakamura are over 30.
2024-02-17T01:56:56
2024-04-22T07:46:26
2024-04-22T07:46:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aJ94x8QuSYHOEoZLqXsi
Will the Conservative Party win fewer than 165 seats at the next General Election? (their worst performance since 1906)
In 1997, Tony Blair won a landslide majority and crushed the Conservatives leaving them on just 165 seats. This was the lowest seat total recorded for the second largest party since 1935 and the lowest seat total for the Tories since 1906. The Tories are trailing in the polls and showing poorly in by-elections and local elections. There is speculation that they could do even worse than they did in 1997. The election has to take place within the next 11 months - you can bet on exactly when it will happen here - @/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd Will they win 164 or fewer seats? Resolution notes: This market will resolve based on the results of the General Election. Any subsequent by-elections or candidates who do not take up their seats will not affect the market. Independent candidates will not count towards the total, even if they indicate that they will be voting with the Conservatives If the Conservative Party changes its name or is modified/changes in a way that means that there is a clear successor party, this market will apply to that party If the Conservative Party disbands in a way which means that there is no clear successor party, this market will resolve to YES If the Conservative Party splits into two or more parties, this market will apply to the largest of those successor parties
2024-02-17T01:18:43
2024-07-05T03:28:47
2024-07-05T03:28:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gsjQhjAo8SVg94p1edy7
Will RFK Jr. receive Secret Service protection before election day?
Resolves YES if RFK Jr. is granted secret service protection before election day, and NO otherwise.
2024-02-16T23:49:06
2024-07-15T12:59:18
2024-07-15T12:59:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RryFjDx8UgNrT7qE6uHf
Israel will invade Lebanon before May 2024
Will resolve as yes if the IDF spokesman announces the IDF entering Lebanon. Air raids, artillery fire, or surgical ground raids will not count. Only large scale ground operation.
2024-02-16T23:07:41
2024-04-30T14:59:00
2024-05-01T03:12:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GjRE32MK8lajwDZ05Jd2
Will any movie be #1 at the box office for at least 4 different weekends within 2024?
For source, I will use The Numbers 2024 (domestic) weekend tracker: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-records/domestic/all-movies/weekend/released-in-2024 For each weekend, the page lists a "No. 1 Movie". This market resolves YES if there is any movie in 2024 listed for 4 different weekends on this page (however they calculate it). In 2023, three movies were #1 for 4+ weekends at the box office: Avatar: The Way of Water was #1 for 5 different weekends. Barbie & Super Mario Bros were #1 for 4 different weekends. In 2024, as of February 16th, Mean Girls has been #1 for 3 different weekends.
2024-02-16T21:36:44
2024-08-27T10:03:22
2024-08-27T10:03:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xBuGfzGjdUl2HWVuAYzP
Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 450k subs by the end of February 2024?
Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel. [image]Summary: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further. 1) h3h3 1st coverage 2) h3h3 2nd coverage 3) h3h3 3rd coverage Will Vaush's main youtube channel go below 450k subs at any point by the end of February 2024? https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_ Related Market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-526bba7e370c)
2024-02-16T18:54:49
2024-03-01T00:07:16
2024-03-01T00:07:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-luZpDm5z70GQM0rcZnBb
Will Vaush's main youtube channel fall below 455k subs by the end of February 2024?
Ever since Vaush's nsfw folder got leaked, he has been losing subs on his youtube channel. [image]Summary: (https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)With h3h3 doing 3 coverages on him, Vaush's subs have tanked even further. 1) h3h3 1st coverage 2) h3h3 2nd coverage 3) h3h3 3rd coverage Will Vaush's main youtube channel go below 455k subs at any point by the end of February 2024? https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_ Related Market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/PunishedFurry/will-vaushs-main-youtube-channel-fa-332a744ca0ea)
2024-02-16T18:53:31
2024-02-25T09:06:59
2024-02-25T09:06:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-i3CXLE5pm7HQgoytBlMw
Will Bitcoin price surpass $70,000 before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-02-16T18:38:45
2024-03-09T08:11:25
2024-03-09T08:11:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LWpULlsl2EJjzzHMw8Ze
Will Bitcoin price surpass $60,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
start counting from Feb 16th
2024-02-16T18:37:47
2024-02-28T05:27:10
2024-02-28T05:27:10
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-f4FQJpqejVX2XPSoKEEs
Will Bitcoin price surpass $59,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
start counting from Feb 16th
2024-02-16T18:37:40
2024-02-28T05:26:49
2024-02-28T05:26:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8z0LM4UIyCXqEIhAxW4f
Will Bitcoin price surpass $58,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
start counting from Feb 16th
2024-02-16T18:37:33
2024-02-28T05:10:13
2024-02-28T05:10:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tUjcXKzuI7D7Gq6VyN3W
Will Bitcoin price surpass $57,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
start counting from Feb 16th
2024-02-16T18:37:25
2024-02-27T06:44:16
2024-02-27T06:44:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6T9skqZWXGduO8sgamVw
Will Bitcoin price surpass $56,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
start counting from Feb 16th
2024-02-16T18:37:17
2024-02-26T18:12:15
2024-02-26T18:12:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xAZuA8q7dQU5xiWSLMXl
Will Napoli beat Barcelona during regular time on Wed, Feb 21, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
⚽ Napoli vs Barcelona 📅 Date: Wednesday, February 21, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00 🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Napoli has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Barcelona has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-02-16T16:01:42
2024-02-21T15:00:00
2024-02-21T15:01:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lZT6JLzoLmr7xvM6dSDK
Will Liverpool beat Luton during regular time on Wed, Feb 21, 2024? - Premier League
⚽ Liverpool vs Luton 📅 Date: Wednesday, February 21, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Liverpool has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Luton has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2024-02-16T16:01:38
2024-02-21T14:30:00
2024-02-21T15:01:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-97SZrbkErh2Q7f2f33Un
Will Pfizer OPEN higher than 27.62 on February 20?
Pfizer Inc Resolves according to Google Open Price PFE opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 27.62 Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:57:57
2024-02-20T10:09:01
2024-02-20T10:09:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yttJr5Lz8gne6QP5HZQo
Will Microsoft OPEN higher than 404.06 on February 20?
Microsoft Corp Resolves according to Google Open Price MSFT opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 404.06 Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:55:06
2024-02-20T10:03:45
2024-02-20T10:03:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y4V0NJvE7wGd6GeFjyIC
Will Google OPEN higher than 141.76 on February 20?
Alphabet Inc Class C Resolves according to Google Open Price GOOG opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 141.76 Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:27:56
2024-02-20T10:10:45
2024-02-20T10:10:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-35OHLHjIbXJyelFBiyfk
Will Apple OPEN higher than 182.31 on February 20?
Apple Inc Resolves according to Google Open Price AAPL opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 182.31. Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:25:00
2024-02-20T10:11:12
2024-02-20T10:11:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-z2r05VKb5kF0daouXsoA
Will Nvidia close higher than 726.13 on February 23?
NVIDIA Corp Resolves according to Google Close Price NVDA closes at 4pm EST This market closes at 3pm EST Resolves YES if stock closes higher than 726.13. Resolves NO if stock closes lower. Resolves 50% if stock closes flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:23:19
2024-02-23T12:00:00
2024-02-23T14:12:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ilA75VqqE35Y9Tip8f8g
Will Nvidia OPEN higher than 726.13 on February 20?
NVIDIA Corp Resolves according to Google Open Price NVDA opens at 9:30am EST Resolves YES if stock opens higher than 726.13. Resolves NO if stock opens lower. Resolves 50% if stock opens flat. I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
2024-02-16T15:21:13
2024-02-20T10:12:07
2024-02-20T10:12:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bzotts62gNcNeokTjtx5
Will Biden step aside/withdraw from the U.S. Presidential race prior to the Democratic National Convention?
The convention begins on August 19. Resolves Yes if Biden voluntarily withdraws from the race for any reason. Resolves N/A if he dies or becomes incapacitated/unable to fulfill the duties of President.
2024-02-16T14:39:41
2024-07-21T11:35:55
2024-07-21T11:35:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-f5TCiZgTmjbdghLhjuQr
Can Sora make an accurate clock before 2025?
TL;DR: Will anyone generate a video of a clock using Sora such that it accurately counts the number of seconds passed during 20 seconds? Background OpenAI recently released a new text to video model called Sora. The model is good at generating realistic looking videos but many of the videos it generates have a weird flow of time (e.g. slow-motion, going backwards). Is it possible to generate videos with a realistic flow of time? The most rigorous way to measure time in the real world is by using a clock, so to really prove that Sora can generate an accurate flow of time, we will use the presence of a clock that can count the number of seconds passed as our criteria. Resolution This question will resolve YES if I see a video generated by Sora that contains a clock which is accurate for 20 seconds. Resolves NO otherwise. A "clock" can be a digital clock or an analog clock. It can even be something which is not typically called a clock as long as it's an object which can be inspected at two parts of the video to determine how many seconds has passed between them. For example an hourglass with seconds passed marked or someone making markings on a wall every second. If the clock also measures units other than seconds (e.g. hours, minutes) then we will only care about the accuracy of the part that counts seconds. The 20 seconds will start the first time the clock changes to a new second in the video. To test if a video has an accurate clock I will, to the best of my ability, find every timestamp where the clock first counts to a number of seconds. This can be seen as a list [(4,10.421), (5, 11.391), (6, 12.485), ...] where every second is paired with the timestamp. I will then check pairwise for every element in the list if the distance between timestamps is consistent with the clock being accurate. Some error is allowed but the error has to be less than one second. If the clock shows T1 at timestamp a and T2 at timestamp b, then we should have: | |a-b| - |T1-T2| | < 0.5 The clock has to be in view for the whole 20 seconds. At least the part that shows the current number of seconds that have passed. Any objects in the video which are not clocks are irrelevant. If there are multiple clocks then every clock has to be accurate for the same 20 second duration. The clock doesn't have to start at 0. Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The creator is unable to access Sora to test its time-keeping abilities. If no accurate clock video is submitted by others, the market will resolve as NO.
2024-02-16T11:58:10
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-03T04:03:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yAvgPhOAzp5lAM6K2njS
Will Ezra Klein say he thinks Biden should be the Democratic Nominee, before August 1st?
Today, Ezra Klein said in the New York Times that Biden should be convinced to step aside and that the Democratic Party should pick a different nominee at the convention in August. I think the democratic party establishment's Overton Window could be considered to centered around what Ezra Klein says in the New York Times, so to me this is very significant. This market resolves Yes if Ezra Klein changes his mind and publicly says he thinks that Biden should be the nominee, before August 1st. Otherwise, this market resolves No.
2024-02-16T10:28:00
2024-08-01T23:59:00
2024-08-04T03:50:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uJieXjZItbk786Ajsyvs
[Metaculus] Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald ...of presidential immunity?
Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21418/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on April 1, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted a petition for a writ of certiorari for Donald Trump to appeal the issue of presidential immunity, or otherwise agreed to hear Trump's appeal on the matter. The question will resolve as No if that has not happened, including if the Supreme Court is still considering at that time whether to grant the writ of cert, or if no petition has been filed; or if the Supreme Court denies Trump cert on this matter. This question only requires that the Supreme Court issue a writ of cert, or to agree to hear the appeal. There is no requirement that the appeal actually be heard or any briefing in the case be submitted before April 1. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2024-02-16T09:03:14
2024-02-28T15:38:35
2024-02-28T15:38:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-687nR2ur7vxnzuS0xPZA
Will Sora be released before Oct 2024?
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before October 1st 2024 Questions with the same criteria: @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20 (this question) @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20 Other questions for Oct 2024: @/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e @/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-oct @/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct @/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-bfee3a7c01f9 @/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20 (this question) In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date. A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question. If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
2024-02-16T08:35:27
2024-10-01T03:27:44
2024-10-01T03:27:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rM08VrBwa1wkKH4Tuy71
Will Fani Willis be removed from the Georgia election subversion case against Donald Trump?
Trial to determine if she should be removed is currently on its second day. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2024/02/16/live-updates-fani-willis-hearing-trump-election-case/72620596007/ This will be resolved when Judge McAfee renders his decision. If she resigns and no decision is issued this will resolve yes.
2024-02-16T08:01:59
2024-03-16T06:02:39
2024-03-16T06:02:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-j2WUQcscW4SdgP4Nvhjq
Will Joe Biden mention AI in the state of the union address
If Joe Biden mentions ai or an ai product this resolves yes
2024-02-16T06:33:03
2024-03-07T19:28:13
2024-03-07T19:28:13
yes
MANIFOLD