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mani-JFQfWg7vFckghArw3Wuc
|
Will AI generate realistic video of animal movement before 2025?
|
Note: This is an effort to make relatively objective, transparent Manifold markets that predict AI capabilities. I won't trade in these markets because there will inevitably be some subjectivity, and I'll try to be responsive with clarifications in the comments (which I will add to the market description). Feedback welcome.
Specifications:
The background of the video doesn't matter (e.g., there can be unrealistic animals or scenery in the background).
The AI-generated video needs to be indistinguishable from a 5-second clip of a single nonhuman animal in action (not just standing, walking, sitting down, etc.). Examples could include a moth flapping their wings, a snake slithering, a cheetah making a sharp turn, or a whale jumping.
This requires more than one example (i.e., not just a fluke), but it doesn't require robustness or high success rates. If a company releases a handful of examples and reliable evidence that they can make videos like this without human assistance (i.e., text-to-video), that's sufficient for YES even if the examples are cherry-picked; the idea here is that even if videos like these take 10 tries each, they could still be commercially viable, and they indicate that the model isn't just getting lucky—even if it still has a lot of hallucination problems.
Indistinguishability approximately means that in a YouTube compilation of 20 clips presented as real animal footage, fewer than 10% of casual, attentive viewers would suspect the AI-generated clip wasn't a real animal. It should be a real animal species, but it doesn't need to pass expert review. (The human observer test isn't a strict or precise requirement, in part because the results would depend a lot on how much people are thinking about AI at the time of the test.)
Most of the animal should be in the video and shouldn't be obscured (e.g., smoke, a blizzard, a dirty camera lens, excessive hair or fur). If the animal is moving quickly, the frame rate needs to be good enough to tell that the animal movement is realistic.
The model needs to be generating novel content. It can't just regurgitate real footage, even if it does some adjustment or recombination. (Thanks to @pietrokc for raising this in the comments. There may be quite a bit of subjectivity here, particularly because there tends to not be much public information about the training data of SOTA models these days.)
The spirit of this market (which will be used to resolve ambiguities that aren't resolved by explicit criteria) is whether the AI seems to have a world model of how animals look and move. YES resolution doesn't require the detailed knowledge of a scientist or sculptor but the general, intuitive understanding that almost all human adults have.
|
2024-02-16T04:16:16
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T19:30:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AdsWs26ZXXIiD0U3scMD
|
Will Sora be released before Aug 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before August 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
Other questions for Aug 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20 (this question)
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-02-16T03:23:00
|
2024-08-03T14:59:00
|
2024-08-04T07:09:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZslJzO8JddjxvNybT5z8
|
Will Sora be released before Jul 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before July 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
Other questions for Jul 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20 (this question)
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-02-16T03:19:37
|
2024-07-02T13:36:17
|
2024-07-02T13:36:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c4RdjCSlvGibiFBPnMPV
|
Will Sora be released before Jun 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before June 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
Other questions for Jun 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2 (this question)
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-02-16T03:15:54
|
2024-06-02T02:06:48
|
2024-06-02T02:06:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zpRhK2md4UvcOfea3QwG
|
Will Sora be released before Apr 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Sora (OpenAI) is released before April 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
Other questions for Apr 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20 (this question)
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Sora must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Sora) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-02-16T03:08:32
|
2024-04-01T06:52:07
|
2024-04-01T06:52:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MtR7vOgV9k4D28coPD2i
|
Will Israel invade Rafah in February 2024?
|
Resolved as yes if the IDF spokesman declares the IDF has entered the city of Rafah in Gaza.
Surgical raids of limited scope will not count. Only large scale clearing operation.
|
2024-02-15T23:09:07
|
2024-02-29T14:59:00
|
2024-02-29T15:03:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H6INgQDVFnRFBXhzUxOB
|
Will 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) have a higher CinemaScore than 'Dune' (2021)?
|
Dune (2021) received a CinemaScore of A-
Resolves YES if Dune: Part Two (2024) receives a CinemaScore of A or A+
Resolves NO if it receives a CinemaScore of A- or lower
Resolves N/A if it does not receive a CinemaScore within one week of release (highly unlikely)
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-dune-part-two-2024-have-a-high-dd14891492bd)
|
2024-02-15T21:03:12
|
2024-03-01T21:05:36
|
2024-03-01T21:05:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mgUHjqWiT0ssZS9zDgBo
|
Nikki Haley will drop out of the race for the Republican nominee by March 16th 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-15T20:39:33
|
2024-03-06T15:14:54
|
2024-03-06T15:14:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RCaxdCqPNjCTA0ED8JIe
|
Will there be realistic AI generated short films by the end of 2024?
|
With the release of Sora it seems reasonably likely that we will have realistic AI generated clips this year. Will we get realistic short films (5-10 minute range) from text prompts this year as well? "Realistic" means both the actual images are accurate depictions of what they're supposed to be depicting, and it can generate films of a "reasonable" complexity level (think multiple characters, maybe 1-3 scene changes, background details, etc). A 5 minute video of a person walking down an empty street doesn't count. No bounds on the complexity of the prompt: an AI that takes an entire script as input is perfectly acceptable.
If I have access to the tool for <= $20 I will test it myself, if not then I will look at public samples.
|
2024-02-15T20:17:05
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-05T20:43:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6RHxauKVTn33Bk8blwyH
|
Will Bitcoin hit $60K in March 2024?
|
If Bitcoin remains at or above 60K on March 1st, then the question will resolve to YES.
|
2024-02-15T19:51:53
|
2024-03-01T00:30:01
|
2024-03-01T00:30:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CGu3cRhs8z66Au0mZnwu
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive St. Patrick's Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-15T18:45:57
|
2024-03-17T20:59:00
|
2024-03-17T21:14:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MjBvRDzh0VMHLVrz4hNj
|
Will "Dune: Part Two" be #1 at the box office during its third weekend? (March 15-17)
|
"Dune: Part Two" releases on March 1st. Its third weekend is March 15th-17th, where it will battle the second weekend for "Kung Fu Panda 4", and the opening weekend for "Arthur the King".
This market resolves YES if BoxOfficeMojo lists "Dune: Part Two" as the film with the highest domestic gross for the weekend of March 15th-17th.
I will use the "weekend" tab in BoxOfficeMojo to resolve this market.
For example "Dune" (2021) released on October 22nd, and in its third weekend at the box office (November 5-7), BoxOfficeMojo shows it as a distant #2 (grossing $7,790,194), miles behind the opening weekend for The Eternals at #1 (grossing $71,297,219) Link: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2021W45/?ref_=bo_rl_table_3
I will use this same source, but for the weekend of March 15-17.
Other details:
I will use the weekend gross posted by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.
For context, AFAIK typically the "weekend" is Friday/Saturday/Sunday, including Thursday previews for new releases, across all of North America. But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their definition.
|
2024-02-15T16:08:11
|
2024-03-19T08:48:57
|
2024-03-19T08:48:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BPcAiwbl0KhoFQ1XDWJ1
|
Will "Dune: Part Two" be #1 at the box office during its second weekend? (March 8-10, dueling "Kung Fu Panda 4")
|
"Dune: Part Two" releases on March 1st. Its second weekend is March 8th-10th, where it will battle the opening weekend for "Kung Fu Panda 4".
This market resolves YES if BoxOfficeMojo lists "Dune: Part Two" as the film with the highest domestic gross for the weekend of March 8th-10th.
I will use the "weekend" tab in BoxOfficeMojo to resolve this market.
For example "Dune" (2021) released on October 22nd, and in its second weekend at the box office (October 29-31), BoxOfficeMojo shows it at #1 (grossing $15,413,486), comfortably ahead of Halloween Kills at #2 (grossing $8,743,355). Link: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/2021W44/?ref_=bo_rl_table_2. I will use this same source, but for the weekend of March 8-10.
Other details:
I will use the weekend gross posted by BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined.
For context, AFAIK typically the "weekend" is Friday/Saturday/Sunday, including Thursday previews for new releases, across all of North America. But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their definition.
|
2024-02-15T16:03:59
|
2024-03-11T16:33:38
|
2024-03-11T16:33:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zMFkpRiBtWP0Ha4lLPSJ
|
Will Manchester City beat Brentford during regular time on Tue, Feb 20, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Manchester City vs Brentford
📅 Date: Tuesday, February 20, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester City has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Brentford has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-02-15T16:01:37
|
2024-02-20T14:30:00
|
2024-02-21T05:29:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wk2yCqxWzu7AUHyovBJR
|
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024 or 2025?
|
[image]The screenshot above is from OpenAI’s page announcing their crazy new AI video model. They say, “If we deploy the model in an OpenAI product,” which makes me wonder if they will deploy it and, if yes, when.
The question resolves yes if the model is available to users of any kind (paid or free). If the model is invite-only it won’t count.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve YES when either:
The creator gets access to Sora
People start posting Sora-generated content on Twitter
|
2024-02-15T15:16:09
|
2024-12-10T00:32:53
|
2024-12-10T00:32:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PWtNmDh02vzpdLcrEOne
|
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
|
[image]The screenshot above is from OpenAI’s page announcing their crazy new AI video model. They say, “If we deploy the model in an OpenAI product,” which makes me wonder if they will deploy it and, if yes, when.
The market resolves YES if the model becomes available to any users, whether paid or free, but won’t count if it’s invite-only.
@/Soli/will-openais-ai-video-model-sora-be-0162150a561e
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The market will resolve YES if Sora is released as part of OpenAI's pro subscription.
Possible clarification from creator (AI generated):
A release of any video model with similar quality to Sora (including potential smaller versions like Sora Turbo) will count for a YES resolution
|
2024-02-15T15:11:17
|
2024-12-10T00:32:21
|
2024-12-10T00:32:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-77IiCpM4otVcQzaZ5fNQ
|
Do Cyber Trucks have a rust problem?
|
Will the stainless steel body of the Cyber Truck be prone to rusting from normal rainy conditions? This market will resolve YES if major new outlets report a rust problem with the Cyber Truck by the end of 2024. If the Rust issue is not a problem, or if is only affects a few early Cyber Trucks then this market will resolve NO.
|
2024-02-15T14:29:07
|
2024-12-19T13:38:22
|
2024-12-19T13:38:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RCOjYBoyPb9FUDWQfBUE
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs Three-peat?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-15T14:00:12
|
2025-02-10T10:28:44
|
2025-02-10T10:28:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kOFjsixIq0XFUwunyChl
|
Will Venezuela become more authoritarian in 2024?
|
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Venezuela's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If Venezuela's democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita-e89ceb740800
@/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more
@/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-indonesia-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho
@/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita
@/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian
|
2024-02-15T11:25:06
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T00:52:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vyDRCd9iwe01mIHi6C2N
|
Will Poland become more authoritarian in 2024?
|
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Poland's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If Poland's democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita-e89ceb740800
@/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more
@/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-indonesia-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho
@/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita
@/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian
|
2024-02-15T11:15:09
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T00:42:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OlX5F8lDpnqYFu0bfnzI
|
Will Russia become more authoritarian in 2024?
|
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if Russia's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If Russia's democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita-e89ceb740800
@/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more
@/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-indonesia-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho
@/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita
@/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian
|
2024-02-15T10:57:26
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T00:45:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5x2CXs6txhBcVGbogmse
|
Will China become more authoritarian in 2024?
|
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if China's democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If China's democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita-e89ceb740800
@/cash/will-the-united-states-become-more
@/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-indonesia-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho
@/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita
@/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian
|
2024-02-15T10:55:21
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T00:45:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Vjkk1p9xFoZU9PVe8EO
|
Will the United States become more authoritarian in 2024?
|
This question will use The Economist's Democracy Index, resolving YES if the United States' democracy score is lower in the next report (to be published in early 2025) compared to the last report (which can be found here).
If the United States' democracy score for 2024 is the same or higher, this question resolves NO.
Other questions about authoritarianism in 2024:
@/cash/will-the-world-become-more-authorit
@/cash/which-regions-became-more-authorita-e89ceb740800
@/cash/will-china-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-russia-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-germany-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-india-become-more-authoritaria
@/cash/will-the-united-kingdom-become-more
@/cash/will-france-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-canada-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-ukraine-become-more-authoritar
@/cash/will-israel-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-turkey-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-poland-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-argentina-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-indonesia-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-south-africa-become-more-autho
@/cash/will-mexico-become-more-authoritari
@/cash/will-venezuela-become-more-authorit
@/cash/will-pakistan-become-more-authorita
@/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian
|
2024-02-15T10:53:47
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-01T00:46:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bnIVWzB7rZiVtfhpW0vn
|
Will there be an open source video model roughly as good as OpenAI Sora by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves based on my judgement or judgement of moderators if disputed, weights must actually be available, restrictive license is fine
|
2024-02-15T10:29:47
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T23:13:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FQOvnpWgsxnis5KWtRz2
|
Will Gemini 2 ship before GPT-5?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-15T09:27:20
|
2024-12-11T09:59:07
|
2024-12-11T09:59:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LHWaHIjg6WciHgAH8KCJ
|
Will Gemini 1.5 Pro seem to be as good as Gemini 1.0 Ultra for common use cases? [Personal judgement]
|
https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-next-generation-model-february-2024/
Our teams continue pushing the frontiers of our latest models with safety at the core. They are making rapid progress. In fact, we’re ready to introduce the next generation: Gemini 1.5. It shows dramatic improvements across a number of dimensions and 1.5 Pro achieves comparable quality to 1.0 Ultra, while using less compute.
Once both have been publically available for long enough to get users, I'll resolve this to whether or not I think it's roughly as good as Ultra or noiceably worse for generic LLM use cases.
|
2024-02-15T09:23:11
|
2024-08-24T14:59:47
|
2024-08-24T14:59:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JzLGzwrROhzmSFQ6uv8D
|
Will OpenAI release a competitor to Google Search before 2025?
|
Rumours say OpenAI is working on a Google Search rival. Will it release to the public by the end of 2024?
[image]
This market resolves Yes for a full version of a web search product, whether it's free or paid. Resolves No if the product is never released, or if it's still in alpha/beta.
|
2024-02-15T09:16:32
|
2024-11-10T12:20:31
|
2024-11-10T12:20:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y8X7vcb6Iprp4l83ReDs
|
Taylor Swift will announce that she is pregnant before the end of 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-15T08:47:10
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T13:56:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a6FJj2rOpBMq3vSgt0XV
|
Will the US Congress pass any new gun legislation in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the US Congress passes something related to civilian ownership and use of guns, after February 14, 2024 and before the end of 2024. This could be gun safety, gun control, or new laws to make it easier to get guns.
The law has to pass the US Congress (House and Senate). The market still resolves Yes if the law is vetoed by the President. The market still resolves Yes if the law is found to be unconstitutional. It does not have to take effect within 2024, it just has to be passed by Congress in 2024.
Executive action don't count. Laws relating to military or police use of guns don't count. Budgets that fund existing agencies don't count. If you're not sure if a law would count, ask in comments.
Example that would count if passed: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/14/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-todays-deadly-gun-violence/
(This is a follow-up to the 2022 market https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-the-us-congress-pass-gun-legis)
|
2024-02-15T04:33:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T18:39:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nu7jD3TplaVLzRpDhgAR
|
Will Nvidia stock be higher a year from now?
|
Currently 739.00 USD
Accounting for stock splits, of course.
|
2024-02-14T23:53:10
|
2025-02-22T20:59:00
|
2025-02-24T18:37:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pvT4RIigijGa0VNBpQ9z
|
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 13th March show positive growth?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 13th March.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (December in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the-f274c791206a
@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-9ccb890e03f0
@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202
|
2024-02-14T23:24:13
|
2024-03-13T00:35:12
|
2024-03-13T00:35:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TwxjC5SETAbZ9Rij3wXl
|
Will Russia have a nuclear weapon in Earth orbit in 2024?
|
US Rep. Mike Turner posted a warning, reportedly referring to Russian plans for nuclear weapons in space
https://x.com/houseintel/status/1757805804885823775?s=46
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/white-house-plans-brief-lawmakers-house-chairman-warns/story?id=107232293
Resolves yes immediately if there is clear evidence of a nuclear weapon (designed for either satellite or ground targets) in space, or if Russia plausibly claims that they have successfully launched such a weapon.
If the US claims that such a weapon exists and Russia denies it, then the market will resolve according to the best evidence presented to me at the end of 2024
What is a nuclear weapon?
Must be a weapon: intended to damage another nation’s military or civilian infrastructure or cause loss of life
Must be nuclear: damage is primarily caused by the radiation emitted by a prompt nuclear fission or fusion reaction, or immediate downstream effects thereof.
Examples:
A space-launched nuclear missile intended for low-atmosphere detonation
A satellite-to-satellite nuclear missile
A nuclear EMP / “super EMP” designed to take out satellite communications
Non-Examples:
A satellite-to-satellite conventional missile, EMP or laser platform that is electronically powered by a fission reactor
An ICBM that enters space but does not enter orbit
Update 2025-01-01 (PST): - The market will close as NO in 5 days unless someone can present compelling evidence for YES. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2024-02-14T14:01:33
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-06T04:12:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UefyYIaeBWJC0XMCszJI
|
Will the US Government declassify the "serious national security threat" raised by Mike Turner within 3 months?
|
This market resolves YES if the Biden administration, or another relevant US government body, declassifies, all or in substantial part, information related to the "serious national security threat" that Mike Turner raised on Feb 14th. "Substantial" means that the broad nature of the threat is confirmed and at least some details shared.
If by market close that has not happened, resolves NO.
|
2024-02-14T13:47:20
|
2024-05-15T23:59:00
|
2024-05-16T08:47:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pHEcD6UbUFf7xz1OGDni
|
Several groups are pushing Michigan Democrats to vote "uncommitted" for the primary. Will they get >100k votes?
|
Resolves Yes if it is reported that more than 100,000 people vote for uncommitted on Michigan's February 27th primary.
|
2024-02-14T07:14:04
|
2024-02-28T03:03:36
|
2024-02-28T03:03:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3q51hhdeAYeYPVf6yRnA
|
Will Bitcoin price surpass $55,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
|
start counting from Feb 14th
|
2024-02-14T07:12:17
|
2024-02-26T17:50:08
|
2024-02-26T17:50:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zi2tH14CJVRsRz3pCchH
|
Will Sydney Sweeney appear in a fresh movie in 2024, as rated by RottenTomatoes?
|
Sydney Sweeney has been in a lot of movies recently, of varied quality. Will Sydney appear in a film with a “fresh” rating on RottenTomatoes in 2024?
Sydney’s ‘24 Release Schedule:
Madame Web [Feb 14th]
Immaculate [Mar 22nd]
In post production:
Eden [directed by Ron Howard]
Echo Valley [written by the person who did Mare of Easttown]
For a film to count here, it must have a 2024 release date according to RottenTomatoes. All films will be assessed 1 week following their US release date, and this will Resolve YES immediately once one of her films has been assessed as being fresh, or NO on January 1st, 2025.
If Sydney is in a film which opens on December 31st, this market will extend exactly 1 week to determine that film’s freshness.
|
2024-02-14T06:19:40
|
2024-03-29T07:02:47
|
2024-03-29T07:02:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SVtbXjsHF5R7SbtjqqmK
|
Will Apple announce homeOS (or equivalent) in 2024?
|
Apple is rumored to be developing a dedicated smart home 0S that’s going to be run on a HomePod or similar. This market resolves true if Apple announces the new dedicated smart home OS in 2024
|
2024-02-14T05:21:24
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:11:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xZFU2jsswOAN8YlkKZ5n
|
Elon Musk shakes Donald Trump’s hand by 2030
|
Resolves yes if photo or video evidence emerges of Elon and The Donald shaking hands anytime after today to 2030.
|
2024-02-13T20:42:18
|
2024-10-05T18:44:46
|
2024-10-05T18:44:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wwk9v1A78nsKyIC1JoIg
|
Will SpaceX achieve 100 successful launches in 2024?
|
🚀
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
|
2024-02-13T19:56:15
|
2024-10-15T10:24:23
|
2024-10-15T10:24:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NPH8HPH66PNgcUfGrdNx
|
Will Luton beat Manchester United during regular time on Sun, Feb 18, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Luton vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Sunday, February 18, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Luton has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester United has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-02-13T16:01:46
|
2024-02-18T11:01:41
|
2024-02-18T11:01:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0GxwratXOhXtUfDuphbi
|
Will an NFL player be arrested for an auto or domestic violence incident before the draft ends on 4/27/2024?
|
This is the next in a series of intervals. So far "Yes" is batting .750, but the most recent interval received the "NO" as players were on good behavior during the playoffs.
|
2024-02-13T15:19:29
|
2024-04-10T16:26:17
|
2024-04-10T16:26:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YBFMdKSYaxzkB7UoDRsr
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 20% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of March 3rd?
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-02-13T11:42:00
|
2024-03-03T20:59:00
|
2024-03-03T21:19:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3A9XOxn73y879efJl4tx
|
Will SocialPredict be run by two public organizations by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if by the end of 2024, there are at least two qualifying organizations that publicly announce they are running an instance of SocialPredict (as defined below). Otherwise NO.
As an example, SocialPredict is currently working with a professor at University of Vermont who intends to deploy SocialPredict for a class. If that happens and is publicly announced, that counts as one organization (University of Vermont).
Definitions:
SocialPredict: code is at https://github.com/openpredictionmarkets/socialpredict and you can see it running at https://brierfoxforecast.ngrok.app/markets. For this question, SocialPredict is defined as this or any future version derived from this, even if there are substantial changes or if it is renamed.
Organizations that qualify here are universities, companies, and registered nonprofits; and must have at least 100 employees.
The organization or an employee/member of the organization has to publish in some public form that they are running this, e.g. a webpage, blog post, tweet, etc.
They need to actually be running it by the end of 2024, e.g. if they announce in December that they plan to run it in January, that doesn't count.
If an organization runs it for some time and then stops, that still counts.
This market was created together with the SocialPredict team, they wanted a trusted third party to run it.
|
2024-02-13T10:38:27
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:28:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iSyKtj7LXwsiJDRyhdAl
|
Will Joe Biden be re-elected as US president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-13T10:17:38
|
2024-07-21T16:03:32
|
2024-07-21T16:03:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fa3t2Wxu3ZMa0xtTmGhC
|
Will the US pass military aid for Israel by the end of March 2024?
|
This question will resolve YES if military aid for Israel is passed by March 31.
|
2024-02-13T06:43:45
|
2024-03-23T19:34:11
|
2024-03-23T19:34:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AGCTMdhvyiV5MLrollMk
|
Will there be at least one full-length ad at the 2025 Super Bowl focused on AI safety advocacy?
|
Resolves to YES if there is at least one ad, that runs for 25 seconds or longer (e.g. a full slot), where the clear primary intended message is about AI safety in some form, without any attempt to sell a particular commercial product?
Resolves to NO if this does not happen.
Resolves N/A if there is no traditional Super Bowl experience for whatever reason.
This need not involve existential risk.
|
2024-02-13T05:52:59
|
2025-02-11T13:50:55
|
2025-02-11T13:50:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XtszHRx1jjYmTVKZkSw5
|
Will NASDAQ: NVDA hit $750 before end of February 2024?
|
https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/nvda
|
2024-02-12T23:36:45
|
2024-02-22T22:44:46
|
2024-02-22T22:44:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TuWRcf7Xhtw18wTo7mrh
|
Will Tesla change it's State of Incorporation before 2025?
|
https://www.foxbusiness.com/business-leaders/musk-switches-neuralink-location-incorporation-nevada
Elon's Money Blocked
Resolves Yes if Tesla moves it's State of Incorporation before 2025
Resolves No if Tesla doesn't move it's State of Incorporation before 2025
(https://manifold.markets/embed/KeenenW/will-tesla-shareholders-vote-to-rat)
|
2024-02-12T23:02:29
|
2024-06-14T14:04:33
|
2024-06-14T14:04:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DWQi6rVVMRgbcjjzLH95
|
Will Bitcoin reach $54321.00 before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-12T13:15:52
|
2024-02-26T11:35:00
|
2024-02-26T11:35:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KuldroOspvQZP6YKkW18
|
Will Bitcoin reach $54321.00 before March 1st?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-12T12:54:06
|
2024-02-26T11:38:24
|
2024-02-26T11:38:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jcsjMWx3VS91rvhyS41v
|
Will Bitcoin hit $53,000 before $47,000?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $53,000 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $47,000 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-02-12T12:50:14
|
2024-02-26T11:27:39
|
2024-02-26T11:27:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-djzHP22IWZFPicBUfmBs
|
Will Bitcoin hit $55,000 before $45,000?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $55,000 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $45,000 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-02-12T12:49:57
|
2024-02-26T17:53:51
|
2024-02-26T17:53:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tIhlVOPKAod3OHOMX3Th
|
Will Sweden Join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $60K again?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-12T12:41:43
|
2024-02-28T06:54:01
|
2024-02-28T06:54:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ftgUwbDp8BKkt8set4xv
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers make it to the Super Bowl in 2025?
|
The Super Bowl just ended. Will San Francisco make it to the next Super Bowl?
|
2024-02-12T11:28:53
|
2024-12-23T12:19:05
|
2024-12-23T12:19:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NNeJduAqtlXdvXFVq6ev
|
Will the Bet on Love recording on YouTube have 50,000+ views before March?
|
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mEF0S1qOsFI)
|
2024-02-12T10:32:34
|
2024-03-01T23:59:00
|
2024-03-02T00:23:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2Ajl328lPVOEhvKWCmMh
|
Will Aella post a picture of her date with Philip, winner of Bet on Love, on Twitter before March?
|
[image]
|
2024-02-12T10:30:02
|
2024-02-15T22:37:32
|
2024-02-15T22:37:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mDuPeneInJ75Y334iuOH
|
Will Argentina win the 2024 Olympic men's soccer gold medal?
|
Paris 2024 Summer Olympics
|
2024-02-12T10:17:25
|
2024-08-03T08:31:03
|
2024-08-03T08:31:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6G0cetIRSSUkUCGIetbi
|
Will the Democratic Nominee be anyone except Joe Biden or Kamala Harris?
|
Resolves Yes if the presidential nominee selected at the convention is anyone except one of these two. Resolves No if it is one of them.
|
2024-02-12T10:08:54
|
2024-08-22T22:37:32
|
2024-08-22T22:37:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tBhyklqYQrmekmwuNB9k
|
Will Bitcoin reach $60K before the end of the Ides of March? (March 15)
|
Using Google for the price.
|
2024-02-12T09:48:09
|
2024-02-28T06:53:17
|
2024-02-28T06:53:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V6Jc3w0NUmAZ9oFvWZyc
|
Will Florence Pugh (Princess Irulan) have more screen time in Dune: Part Two than Zendaya did in Dune: Part One? (>6:22)
|
Source: I will resolve this market based on whatever is stated by Matthew Stewart, who regularly posts screen time calculations on his Twitter.
For reference, here is his post for Dune (2021): https://twitter.com/MatthewAStewart/status/1457105533824077826
He calculates that Zendaya had 6 minutes & 22 seconds of screen time in Dune: Part One. Thus, this market resolves YES if the screen time he calculates for Florence Pugh in Dune: Part Two is 6:23 or higher, and it resolves NO if 6:22 or lower. (Further resolution details below).
For reference, here are the screen times he calculated for other minor/supporting roles:
Josh Brolin - 11:31 (7.41%)
Sharon Duncan-Brewster - 9:47 (6.29%)
Jason Momoa - 9:29 (6.10%)
Javier Bardem - 6:07 (3.94%)
Stephen McKinley Henderson - 5:52 (3.77%)
Charlotte Rampling - 5:25 (3.49%)
Stellan Skarsgård - 5:23 (3.46%)
Dave Bautista - 2:08 (1.37%)
Resolution edge cases (I doubt this will come up):
If Matthew Stewart has not posted any screen time data within 3 months of the streaming release of Dune: Part Two, I will attempt to substitute with whatever reputable-looking source I can find (still comparing to the 6:22 benchmark). If I can't find a reputable-seeming replacement source, I will have to resolve this N/A (I won't attempt to calculate it myself).
He seems to be quite consistent, so I don't think that will prove necessary.
If he posts the screen time data for Dune: Part Two, and fairly clear that Florence Pugh is omitted because her screen time is so far below 6:22 (e.g. <30s), then I can still resolve this NO. If he posts screen time data but it only covers e.g. the top few characters (so it isn't sufficient to determine if Florence Pugh is >6:22), then I will again look for a substitute source.
If any scenarios are unclear, please ask.
If you think it's likely that Florence Pugh has more screen time, I made a second market, requiring a >50% increase:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Ziddletwix/will-florence-pugh-princess-irulan-c2fa7955469b?r=WmlkZGxldHdpeA)
|
2024-02-12T09:41:17
|
2024-05-02T09:03:09
|
2024-05-02T09:03:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GsPIk3Vlln7xE2hfs1CZ
|
Will "Dune: Part Two" (2024) have a Metacritic score >80?
|
"Dune: Part Two" (2024) Metacritic page: https://www.metacritic.com/movie/dune-part-two/
I will resolve based on the Metascore on March 15th (two weeks after release).
This is based on critics, not audiences. For example, "Dune: Part One" (2021) currently lists a Metascore of 74.
I will use whatever precision is listed by Metacritic (typically an integer, no decimal, & I won't try to compute that myself).
To compare with other films by Vilenueve, "Incendies" has a Metascore of 80 and would thus resolve NO, while "Bladerunner 2049" has a Metascore of 81 and would resolve YES. "Sicario" and "Arrival" also have Metascore >80.
Other details:
I don't expect the score to be shifting much two weeks after release, but just in case, it will resolve based on what I see whenever I happen to check on that date (I can't guarantee exactly what time I'll be free to resolve it).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
|
2024-02-12T09:16:08
|
2024-03-15T10:36:14
|
2024-03-15T10:36:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3SFecr52DTVn5K5BDZzk
|
Will Sam Altman tweet or say the name Roon again before March?
|
Any public post, repost, or video of him saying "Roon" will count.
Context:
[tweet](https://manifold.markets/embed/ZviMowshowitz/is-sam-altman-roon)
|
2024-02-12T08:55:18
|
2024-03-01T13:12:25
|
2024-03-01T13:12:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YYPBqGXSfRXCHEXhb6iK
|
Will Taylor Swift endorse Joe Biden within 3 weeks after the Super Bowl?
|
(https://manifold.markets/embed/zaperrer/will-taylor-swift-endorse-joe-biden-2d90e94cbce4)
|
2024-02-12T08:52:07
|
2024-03-03T23:59:00
|
2024-03-09T06:13:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EgCWjguyskJIbNg9ATuF
|
Will Bitcoin reach a new All-time high before EOY 2024 according to Coingecko's value? ($67617)
|
Using Google for the price.
Price to reach is $67617
|
2024-02-12T08:38:22
|
2024-03-04T12:56:55
|
2024-03-04T12:56:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kuCvMHLZ8wtaYYqb4sWe
|
Will California AI regulation bill SB 1047 become law this session?
|
California Senator Scott Weiner of SF has introduced the bill (https://twitter.com/Scott_Wiener/status/1755650108287578585, https://leginfo.legislature.ca.gov/faces/billNavClient.xhtml?bill_id=202320240SB1047).
This bill would regulate AI systems in various ways.
Will it become law by the time the legislative session ends?
This resolves YES if SB 1047 becomes law as a substantively similar bill. I wouldn't count it if it is gutted so much that it now essentially does nothing, but mostly I will let lesser changes stand.
This resolves NO if SB 1047 does not become law by the deadline and the session is over. If the session runs late the deadline will be extended.
Note that this applies only to SB 1047, if another similar bill is introduced and passes that would not count (it seemed too messy to worry about edge cases).
|
2024-02-12T08:05:09
|
2024-09-29T14:00:42
|
2024-09-29T14:00:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3fJUllIBhz04SgYtlt1f
|
Will P. Diddy (Sean “Puffy” Combs) spend a minimum of one night, in a jail facility, in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-12T07:47:48
|
2024-09-17T15:18:58
|
2024-09-17T15:18:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OCiW4K5CPb6se2iIZnBc
|
Six Nations Rugby: Round 5. France(yes) v England(no) Saturday 16/3/2024
|
Who will win in Paris? A draw will resolve as N/A. I will spend Mana on this market.
|
2024-02-12T04:56:55
|
2024-03-16T14:48:59
|
2024-03-16T14:48:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BfMfPDXAfabXiBniRHr9
|
Will Biden still be alive and capable of acting as president on August 22, 2024?
|
This market resolves YES as long as Biden is still alive for the entire day of August 22 (CT), and hasn't been incapacitated in such a way as to render him incapable of performing his duties as president. If Biden dies or is incapacitated before then, it resolves NO.
August 22 is the last day of the Democratic National Convention, so this market can be used to hedge your bets on Biden's nomination.
|
2024-02-11T19:52:25
|
2024-08-22T21:59:00
|
2024-08-23T07:27:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m74KRK6CnMERHNQLj91y
|
It is publicly revealed that Taylor Swift breaks up with Travis Kelce in 2024
|
If they break up in 2024, but it isn’t revealed until >=Jan 1 2025 (GMT), this market resolves NO (as the resolution criterion is based on the revelation, not the matter of fact).
|
2024-02-11T19:29:05
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:21:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DAXCFguvgo5EtGV64dG1
|
Will Destiny defend Vaush on his nsfw folder leak by the end of February 2024?
|
Historically, despite their contentious relationship, Destiny has always tried to defend Vaush when he felt Vaush was being unfairly maligned.
ChaosIsMel debate
JackAM calling Vaush a pedophile
Kat Blaque shit-talking Vaush's dick
Noah Samsen hit piece
He even defended Vaush's cp/child labor take when asked about it in an interview with a podcast (can't find this video atm)
But after Vaush's recent comments to Destiny after their PV meetup, Destiny has decided to abandon any hope of bridge-building.
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/9zZuEGf1m6A)And after the nsfw folder leak, Destiny had some not-so-kind words to say.
[image][image]Will Destiny still end up defending Vaush despite the resentment he still feels?
What counts as defending Vaush:
Saying the pictures are not that bad or that anime/AI pictures is not technically cp or weird since nobody is being harmed
Saying that Vaush's critics are being unfair to him and taking him out of context
Explaining that Vaush was making an argument against Veganism, capitalism, or just using it as an analogy to argue something.
Handwaving away the clips as Vaush just trying to be a debate bro and being hyperbolic.
This defense of Vaush was must be a spirited one and not a throwaway comment like "ehh, pictures weren't that bad". The defense must be at least 15 minutes long in total on stream or 7 tweets defending Vaush.
This defense of Vaush can also be prompted by a viewer/orbiter sparking the dicussion.
|
2024-02-11T17:21:53
|
2024-03-01T00:00:00
|
2024-03-01T00:09:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cpn8OJcDioe6jSzrBBWc
|
Will Taylor Swift propose to Travis at the Superbowl? (NOTE THAT GENDERS ARE REVERSED)
|
Will Taylor break thru societal, patriarchal conditioning & be brave enough to turn the tables & give her man a ring???? Everyone is asking.....
|
2024-02-11T17:17:04
|
2024-02-11T21:19:11
|
2024-02-11T21:19:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2br6rUl7MII94JOgpNq5
|
Will the next version of Chat GPT release by the Ides of March? (March 15)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-11T13:26:55
|
2024-03-15T19:02:17
|
2024-03-15T19:02:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QeOSosxqjJDZZM7XLnQp
|
Will Marco Rubio be on the GOP ticket in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-11T13:21:55
|
2024-07-15T13:01:20
|
2024-07-15T13:01:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t5cSajuQodKkYXX9v3oe
|
Will Chat GPT-5 release within two weeks after the Superbowl?
|
Closes EOD Feb 25 2024
|
2024-02-11T13:21:39
|
2024-02-25T20:59:00
|
2024-02-25T22:07:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gkGfq9AOQtw4C1uqUMfC
|
Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 28, 2024 be higher than the previous day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 28, 2024 is higher than the previous day
Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No)
Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.
|
2024-02-11T12:06:24
|
2024-03-29T06:59:59
|
2024-03-29T09:49:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7aIJv3uPax2qn9u6PYVJ
|
Will the highest temperature in NYC in Mar 25, 2024 be higher than the previous day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the Highest temperature in NYC Mar 25, 2024 is higher than the previous day
Resolves to No otherwise (in case of a tie, resolves to No)
Highest temperature according to National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office's daily Climatological Report
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=OKX&issuedby=NYC&product=CLI&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0
Note: Two reports are issued each day: one around 4:30 PM and another around 1 AM the following day. The report issued around 1 AM summarizes the highest temperature of the day that just ended and will be used for resolving this market.
|
2024-02-11T12:05:50
|
2024-03-26T06:59:59
|
2024-03-26T10:53:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eeFg0CuuLoUJ3iu4XFYt
|
[Metaculus] Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile ac...before the 15th of March?
|
Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21394/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 15, 2024, credible sources report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-02-11T10:51:05
|
2024-03-15T15:51:04
|
2024-03-15T15:51:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zJjuPsLlJVCeRdeWlQec
|
Will Vaush and h3h3 talk about the nsfw folder leak by the end of February 2024?
|
Vaush has been in a lot of turmoil recently because his nsfw folder containing loli porn leaked on stream.
You can see the summary in this video
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/mDbDIrOG0ak)
As h3h3 was covering on this on their stream, Vaush expressed interest in coming on to defend himself.
[image]But since then, Vaush has, for whatever reason, turned down 2 offers to talk according to Ethan.
[image]Will these two end up talking on voice call or irl before the end of Feb 2024 about this topic? The talk must be at least 5 minutes long.
|
2024-02-11T10:36:15
|
2024-03-01T00:00:00
|
2024-03-01T00:10:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xhFdMCgjk1d5EvZAfNXE
|
Will Joe Biden step aside no later than at or before the Democratic Convention ends on August 22?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-11T07:22:56
|
2024-07-21T15:06:23
|
2024-07-21T15:06:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9mC1zNkSwWj6XW8V0X4q
|
Will GPT-4's successor be announced in a Super Bowl ad today?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-11T04:15:37
|
2024-02-11T20:22:55
|
2024-02-11T20:22:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q64h07yoUXs1fFJiVMIT
|
Will GPT-4's successor be released this week?
|
[image]
|
2024-02-11T04:13:20
|
2024-02-12T10:45:21
|
2024-02-12T10:45:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PzBONCrSKpqjvt7FrjqF
|
Will the Houthis successfully sabotage underwater Internet cables this year?
|
So, yeah... there's been concerns that the Houthis could have motive and capability to cut, destroy or otherwise sabotage internet cables in the Red Sea.
While the Houthis do have an ally in Iran, that could give them the resources needed for such an action, there are also those who are calling this a bluff.
The question is:
Is it? Will they do it?
Furthermore, will they do it this year? Are they bluffing or is this a case where people are falling for optimism bias believing everything will be fine?
Resolves YES if:
The Houthis manage to sabotage a submarine communications cable within the year. This will likely be reported by multiple sources and affect Internet traffic.
Resolves NO if:
The next year (2025) comes around and no Houthi sabotage has been attempted and managed to succeed.
Resolves N/A if:
Most submarine communication cables suffer some critical failure for some other reason this year (meteor impact?, world war?, aliens?!)
Considering this is my second question on Manifold, there could be more topics I could add to the question and the resolution criteria could still be ambiguous, so please comment regarding any suggestions or clarifications.
|
2024-02-10T20:52:12
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-03T21:11:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3xCIEEPeSeyGtPkvv4I6
|
Will any USAMO cutoff be above 240 this year?
|
Resolves YES if any USAMO cutoff, either AMC12A or AMC12B combined with AIME I or AIME II, is above 240. It's never been above 240 before, though it has hit 238, but this year, people reported the AIME and AMCs were too easy.
If it wasn't obvious, "above 240" does not include exactly 240.
Edit: Resolves when cutoffs are posted on https://maa.org/math-competitions.
|
2024-02-10T19:29:06
|
2024-03-07T10:59:30
|
2024-03-07T10:59:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-feGTL0rhOJ0pvjTtYlJj
|
Will AMC Theatres remove the Nicole Kidman pre-movie promo before July 1st 2024?
|
This will resolve to a YES if AMC Theatres removes the Nicole Kidman promo by July 1st 2024 00:01am ET
For reference - this is the promo: https://youtu.be/KiEeIxZJ9x0
|
2024-02-10T18:30:31
|
2024-07-02T20:59:00
|
2024-07-23T12:20:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AagkJaJl4KHmUBbD7zyr
|
Will either major party have a Brokered Convention in 2024?
|
[image]Context
|
2024-02-10T11:56:40
|
2024-08-23T23:59:00
|
2024-08-31T16:31:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QwFbyrYPINhdEkMdl9kO
|
Will Bayer Leverkusen complete the 2023-24 Bundesliga season unbeaten?
|
Resolves NO if Bayer Leverkusen loses to any team in any Bundesliga matches for the remainder of the 2023-2024 season. Resolves YES otherwise.
Domestic cup match losses or Europa League losses are not contemplated by this question.
|
2024-02-10T11:35:56
|
2024-05-18T08:23:52
|
2024-05-18T08:23:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bOq7lxByXtw5H0a4W0hk
|
📲 Will Donald Trump TWEET in 2024?
|
Timeline
Banned. Jan 8, 2021
Elon Musk poll. Nov 18, 2022
Account restored. Nov 19, 2022
Mugshot tweet. Aug 24, 2023
Next tweet. ____________ ?
|
2024-02-10T11:06:28
|
2024-08-12T08:28:45
|
2024-08-12T08:28:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sfdBsmvlvy32DWqc3fEL
|
Will Biden be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 this term?
|
Resolves YES if during Biden's current term as President, the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet (or other relevant body) invokes Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to formally declare that "the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office" and cause the Vice President to serve as Acting President.
The duration of the incapacity does not matter for this question.
Biden exiting the office of the Presidency by death, resignation, etc does not count. Biden invoking section 3 of the 25th amendment does not count.
Context: GOP lawmaker asks Merrick Garland to invoke 25th Amendment to remove Biden from office
|
2024-02-10T08:11:35
|
2025-01-20T16:26:25
|
2025-01-20T16:26:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4CD4eGTlUlKYt6lJlQ17
|
Will Biden issue at least one executive order to tighten the border?
|
Will resolve to YES if Biden issues at least one executive order to decrease flow of immigrants. Issuing executive orders is a good proxy for whether Biden tacks to the center on immigration ahead of the election or stays the course.
|
2024-02-10T04:32:00
|
2024-06-04T09:48:50
|
2024-06-04T09:48:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7RFKLYfOwXihQX2gCrvJ
|
Will Lazio beat Bayern Munich during regular time on Wed, Feb 14, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ Lazio vs Bayern Munich
📅 Date: Wednesday, February 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Lazio has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Bayern Munich has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-02-09T16:01:34
|
2024-02-14T15:00:00
|
2024-02-14T15:01:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pkNUfm4zWSQpF6xL8iZB
|
Will 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) gross >$85M on its domestic opening weekend?
|
Resolves YES if 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses more than $85,000,000 domestically on its opening weekend. Resolves NO otherwise.
The "Domestic Opening" number on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the question closing date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by the closing date, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-dune-part-two-2024-gross-75m-o)
|
2024-02-09T14:55:53
|
2024-03-04T16:43:42
|
2024-03-04T16:43:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KtkB37KYg06Azj0X8BgS
|
Will Gemini Ultra achieve an Elo of 1300 or higher on the Chatbot Arena before May 1, 2024?
|
Gemini Ultra was released on Feb 8, 2024
As of Feb 9, 2024, it is expected to achieve a higher Elo than GPT-4 according to this market
As of Feb 9, 2024, GPT-4 has an Elo of 1253
Resolution criteria:
Resolves YES if some version of Gemini Ultra achieves an Elo of 1300 or higher on Chatbot Arena at any point before May 1, 2024
Resolves NO if Gemini Ultra does not reach an Elo of 1300, or if it never appears on the leaderboard before the deadline
Resolves N/A if the leaderboard is no longer publicly accessible at the time of closing
|
2024-02-09T14:48:36
|
2024-04-30T23:59:00
|
2024-05-01T08:23:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9HdypXnvEAEaa8t70qQT
|
Will Amazon OPEN higher than 174.45 on February 12?
|
Amazon.com Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
AMZN closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 12
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-02-09T14:45:52
|
2024-02-12T12:00:00
|
2024-02-12T20:54:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aYGGo6hKUaoNOqtOa8QU
|
Will Apple OPEN higher than 188.85 on February 12?
|
Apple Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
AAPL closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 12
Resolves YES if stock opens higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock opens lower.
Resolves 50% if stock opens flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-02-09T14:41:23
|
2024-02-12T12:00:00
|
2024-02-12T20:56:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eulcJHaDIXKpxHITeXxn
|
Will LLM progress stall in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if there are no more improvements in WinoGrande and BigBench-Hard beyond the state of the art as of market creation. Gemini Ultra 1.0 results will be considered included in this and do not count, even if leaderboards haven't been updated.
To the best of my knowledge that means 83.6% on BBH https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/gemini/gemini_1_report.pdf
And 87.5% for WinoGrande https://arxiv.org/abs/2303.08774v4 though Gemini Ultra is not reported yet. Please let me know if I am missing something in comments.
|
2024-02-09T11:50:46
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:10:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BvSqEjzkSVdW7Q8f52rO
|
🐸🧚🏼♂️🤹🏼 Will the Supreme Court rule on whether Trump is allowed on the Colorado primary ballot by Leap Day?
|
February 29
Similar markets
[markets]
|
2024-02-09T10:14:32
|
2024-02-28T23:59:00
|
2024-02-29T23:36:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lPQtvEz71V5ZsCNIkEE1
|
🙉🙈🙊 Will the Supreme Court rule on whether Trump is allowed on the Colorado primary ballot by President’s Day?
|
February 19
Similar markets:
[markets]
|
2024-02-09T10:05:09
|
2024-02-18T23:59:00
|
2024-02-19T06:10:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-idsfnnaIG1k46m3SjRoM
|
Will Larry Hogan come within ten points of victory in Maryland's Senate Election?
|
if he wins outright or loses by less than 10, resolves yes
|
2024-02-09T09:36:07
|
2024-11-15T20:59:00
|
2024-11-19T00:07:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bFXYpTWjaYTO6mVOWEKD
|
If he is the Republican nominee, will Former Governor Larry Hogan win the 2024 Senate Race in Maryland?
|
Context
[image]Resolves N/A if he is not the nominee.
|
2024-02-09T09:24:04
|
2024-11-06T23:59:00
|
2024-11-15T10:47:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cBnuUVyowOcIGLQfDKdJ
|
Will Donald Trump say "Fuck" on camera before April 1st?
|
Resolves yes if someone posts a video of Trump saying "Fuck", which was recorded after the creation of this market and before April 1st 2024.
It has to be the whole word, he can't cut himself off.
See also:
@/Joshua/will-joe-biden-say-fuck-on-camera-b
@/Joshua/will-joe-biden-say-fuck-on-camera-b-9cc7ad2cd60c
|
2024-02-08T19:11:50
|
2024-04-01T15:38:27
|
2024-04-01T15:38:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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