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stringlengths 0
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-gwm12OQZf2V58a9JkAYP
|
Will Joe Biden say "Fuck" on camera before April 1st?
|
Resolves yes if someone posts a video of Biden saying "Fuck", which was recorded after the creation of this market and before April 1st 2024.
It has to be the whole word, he can't cut himself off.
See also:
@/Joshua/will-donald-trump-say-fuck-on-camer
@/Joshua/will-joe-biden-say-fuck-on-camera-b-9cc7ad2cd60c
|
2024-02-08T19:10:57
|
2024-04-01T15:35:10
|
2024-04-01T15:35:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-52tTHsLfKrSHYMmS0s9j
|
Will Joe Biden win the first debate against Donald Trump?
|
In the past, 538 has covered presidential debates by sponsoring polling of debate viewers and asking them who won. If they do this again for the first such debate in the 2024 election, this market resolves Yes if Biden wins and No if Trump wins, according to that polling.
If there are several questions polled about the candidates' debate performance, this question resolves based on the closest thing to the question "Overall, who do you think won the debate?"
If 538 does not sponsor their own polling but does have a definitive post-debate article covering other polling, perhaps averaging different polls of debate viewers, this market will resolve based on that coverage.
I will update this criteria as we learn more about the first debate and 538's coverage.
Resolves N/A if there is no debate between Biden and Trump, or if 538 does not do post-debate coverage with debate viewer polling.
|
2024-02-08T18:36:04
|
2024-06-28T12:45:56
|
2024-06-28T12:45:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ozItweC244ctFJJYn5Na
|
Will weed be rescheduled by 4/20?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by April 20th, 2024, 11:59 PM PT. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
[link preview]
|
2024-02-08T17:58:04
|
2024-04-20T20:59:00
|
2024-04-20T21:08:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kDfPKWQoujjUiSTMpvEA
|
Is 2024 the year of the Linux desktop (break 5% market share)?
|
To resolve Yes Linux will have to break 5% during one month of 2024 on the website https://gs.statcounter.com/os-market-share/desktop/worldwide
|
2024-02-08T17:47:43
|
2025-01-01T04:01:58
|
2025-01-01T04:01:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UuactyTphmNtUJy3vZFl
|
Joe Biden will NOT seek reelection.
|
Will pull an LBJ before the convention. LBJ in 1968 famously announced before the convention he would not seek reelection to the presidency. Once the convention begins and if Biden has NOT withdrawn his candidacy this resolves as NO.
|
2024-02-08T17:09:11
|
2024-07-21T13:01:55
|
2024-07-21T13:01:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4FcDhmmNNGpBTALXurrn
|
Will RB Leipzig beat Real Madrid during regular time on Tue, Feb 13, 2024? - UEFA Champions League 🇪🇺
|
⚽ RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid
📅 Date: Tuesday, February 13, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: UEFA Champions League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- RB Leipzig has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Real Madrid has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-02-08T16:01:36
|
2024-02-13T15:00:00
|
2024-02-13T15:01:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OuHuEXe9AxJU2wkRCJiw
|
Will Terraform Industries have a functional full-scale terraformer in 2024?
|
Terraform Industries says they'll start production of their terraformers in Q2, but they have to have a fully functional unit by the end of the year for this question to resolve to yes. They don't necessarily have to be selling them, so a prototype would be ok. The prototype would have to match the 1000 cubic feet per hour of natural gas claimed on their product page as of Feb 2024.
Related: this question about whether they will begin commercializing
|
2024-02-08T15:22:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T06:35:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jrWs1W6tvkGiTcMvxgT8
|
OpenAi releases GPT-5/AgentGPT/Q* by March 18th
|
I think it reasonable they will strive to improve GPT-4 on the one year mark of launching.
|
2024-02-08T13:46:17
|
2024-03-19T19:59:00
|
2024-03-20T05:08:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KuzbY6tuQgN04ngGDQ7G
|
Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) gross >$45M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to YES if "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) grosses more than $45,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/ will be used to resolve this market.
Details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Kung Fu Panda 3 would have been $41,282,042.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
|
2024-02-08T12:58:43
|
2024-03-11T16:26:44
|
2024-03-11T16:26:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YRWb2qsDxOuLc0Lple3a
|
Will the Google Gemini App have as many installs as the ChatGPT app on Android by end of 2024?
|
I will resolve this based on the bucketized install counts in the play store.
If they end up in the same bucket, I will resolve YES.
|
2024-02-08T12:50:06
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:32:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cpmZcsbyL1cwLzmknNiG
|
Will "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) gross >$35M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to YES if "Kung Fu Panda 4" (2024) grosses more than $35,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt21692408/ will be used to resolve this market.
Details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Kung Fu Panda 3 would have been $41,282,042.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
|
2024-02-08T12:44:19
|
2024-03-11T16:26:03
|
2024-03-11T16:26:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zIi2zykRjpT0ZrcRzuRQ
|
Will Putin win the Russian presidential election in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-08T12:38:30
|
2024-03-15T14:59:00
|
2024-03-18T06:15:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IXPLYEdZ7GpX6xUDOsNC
|
Will Destiny watch Tucker Carlson’s interview with Vladimir Putin? 🎧🎙️
|
Will resolve YES if he spends 10 minutes or more watching or reacting to the interview. Otherwise resolves NO on March 1st.
|
2024-02-08T10:44:11
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:11:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C7v8VGZUyBl9yH9myw1j
|
Will the certification for the President of the United States be ultimately concluded by January 7, 2025?
|
Criteria in draft status for a week if anyone has any comments.
Note: this question won't resolve until inauguration day in case of any late (low probability) pending legal challenges.
In simplest terms, this question is a proxy for whether there will be legal or popular doubt between January 7 and the inauguration day (scheduled January 20) about who the next president will be. See spirit of question.
Resolution Criteria:
Congressional Certification Criteria: If Congress does not complete the certification process for the President of the United States by January 7, 2025 12:00AM EDT, this question will resolve NO.
Published Confirmation: Confirmation of the certification by credible news sources (CSPAN, CNN, NYT, etc.) or official government announcements will serve as validation for congress certifying by the requirement for time (that is, it is the time of when congress finishes certifying, not the news/validation).
Pending Legal Challenges: If there are any 'serious' ongoing legal challenges regarding the congressional certification process or status of the certification after January 7, 2025 12:00AM EDT and before the inauguration actually takes place (scheduled January 20, 2025) this question will resolve NO. As to the question of "serious" I will use my own judgment relying on news reports (see spirit of the question below).
Otherwise, this question will resolve YES on when the inauguration day is held (scheduled January 20) and not earlier.
Judgment and spirit of this question:
I will try to rely on these criteria but my emphasis for resolving is on the spirit of the question, as follows, for any edge cases that fall between the cracks: this question is an attempt to predict whether any democratic or legal problems on, before, on, or after January 6 will affect the security and straightforwardness of congress successfully affirming the election results on certification day so there is no (popular) uncertainty, doubts, or worries after January 7 with regards to who will be President on inauguration day (January 20). For example, a normal certification that resolves YES is congress certifies on January 6 and there are NO 'serious' legal challenges following it. If there is an insurrection that causes a delay, or congressional debate/challenges that delays certification, or Supreme Court or other legal challenges that might affect the status of the certification of Congress by January 7 or that might after January 7 affect the status of the certification this would cause it to resolve NO.
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Update from creator
The creator may resolve the market before the scheduled close date of 2025-01-21T04:59:00.000Z if it appears extremely unlikely that there will be any further challenges.
If any complaints arise about resolving early, the creator will consider them within the next 48 hours before making a final resolution.
|
2024-02-08T10:05:47
|
2025-01-08T15:49:54
|
2025-01-08T15:49:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ahooHKF5xRzo8sXJMcca
|
Will OpenAI add folder support to ChatGPT in 2024?
|
Implementation and Purpose: The feature, potentially varying in its specific implementation, must enable all paid users to organize similar chats in one place, aiming to streamline access to conversation history.
User Access: Partial Rollouts or Testing won't count. The feature has to be available to at least all paid users.
Web or Mobile: If the feature is only available on web or mobile, this would suffice to resolve the market as yes.
|
2024-02-08T06:34:56
|
2024-12-14T00:10:56
|
2024-12-14T00:11:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H2NJFAwJFvVsXmdpqUyo
|
Will the ocean surface temperature (SST) be lower than the previous year on any day in 2024?
|
In other words, will the black and orange lines on https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ intersect this year?
I will use the values on https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/ for world (60S-60N). If it is a close call I will wait for finalized data 2 weeks later.
|
2024-02-08T02:15:10
|
2024-07-20T15:35:11
|
2024-07-20T15:35:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sFBAg0YE7eIwafo0r8uy
|
Will discord report an incident on Feburary 8th or 9th?
|
https://discordstatus.com/
|
2024-02-07T22:08:51
|
2024-02-10T10:22:00
|
2024-02-10T10:22:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-deAcTh24WnjToVWr1pbR
|
Will Israel announce victory over Hamas in 2024?
|
It doesn't have to be widely agreed that this victory is actually achieved, but I will resolve on any auch announcement from high-ranking (minister or higher) source.
Does not have to actually mention victory but language should be quite suggestive in that direction (e.g. "Hostilities have ceased because we dismantled Hamas offensive capabilities").
Ceasefire without claim of victory doesn't count.
|
2024-02-07T22:08:25
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:43:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LHKBjxvjc3HD8cRJwjKE
|
Will the US Federal Government make it illegal to share deepfake nudes before 2025?
|
Resolves yes if the US federal government makes it broadly illegal to share sexually explicit images generated by AI without the subject's consent, before the end of 2024.
I'll probably defer to this Polymarket of the same question for the resolution, unless it resolves in some silly way because of UMA. I'm not a lawyer and don't have a rigid definition of what kind of ban would count, but this will resolve based on the common sense spirit of the question.
I will not trade in this market.
See also @/Joshua/will-the-us-federal-government-make-890586f6893f
|
2024-02-07T19:27:12
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T04:06:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5WLQ9PA4TXVVqgYvsoJX
|
Will 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) gross >$75M on its domestic opening weekend?
|
Resolves YES if 'Dune: Part Two' (2024) grosses more than $75,000,000 domestically on its opening weekend. Resolves NO otherwise.
The "Domestic Opening" number on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15239678/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the question closing date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by the closing date, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/howahlah/will-dune-part-two-2024-gross-85m-o)
|
2024-02-07T19:18:24
|
2024-03-04T16:44:08
|
2024-03-04T16:44:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TLk9MaHlMFpaKP3Rvymk
|
Will Russia launch an armed attack against a NATO member by the end of February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-07T17:21:15
|
2024-02-29T14:59:00
|
2024-02-29T15:37:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G05ivpZfF2VSbB9aZsHB
|
Will Bitcoin hit $69420 before $42069?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolves Yes if Bitcoin hit $69420 first
Resolves No if Bitcoin hit $42069 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-02-07T15:04:41
|
2024-03-08T08:48:20
|
2024-03-08T08:48:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QUDK4wlidqaODd88vwNO
|
Will Ronna McDaniel still be the RNC chair on Super Tuesday? (March 5th)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-07T12:46:45
|
2024-03-05T20:59:00
|
2024-03-05T22:15:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rGhK8VW5twszbxoU3wgV
|
Will the US approve at least 50 billion USD of funding to Ukraine by the end of Q2 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-07T12:25:37
|
2024-04-24T13:27:24
|
2024-04-24T13:27:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jM79L8RwBwra7NavULhe
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out of presidential race on or before Sunday February 25?
|
YES: Nikki Haley drops out or officially suspends her campaign for President of the United States on or before Sunday February 25th, 2024.
NO: She is still actively campaigning on February 26th, 2024.
|
2024-02-07T11:59:40
|
2024-02-25T20:59:00
|
2024-02-25T21:12:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rJxipntuogFKAWHGcg28
|
Will Donald Trump win the Republican Primary in Washington, DC?
|
The primary is being held in DC from 3/1 to 3/3, Trump and Haley are the only two major candidates.
|
2024-02-07T11:20:09
|
2024-03-03T17:35:13
|
2024-03-03T17:35:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cXRS6L91I6lKdGppBjF1
|
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of March 2024?
|
This is similar to @Leminspector's question with a February deadline, which is similar to @Domer's original question.
I got very curious about this after the border/foreign assistance bill and the clean Israel aid both failed to pass. February may be too soon, but we'll see about March!
From Domer's question:
Package must have >$1b in new aid to Ukraine by Jan 31st [edit: March 31st]. Same bill must be passed by both the Senate and House to count. Will not wait for POTUS to sign it for YES, if it passes both chambers & is then en route to Biden, YES instantly wins.
If >$1b in new Ukraine aid does not pass by Jan 31st [edit: March 31st], NO wins.
|
2024-02-07T09:49:58
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T00:49:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lme8LUwVKLf0qLPKLYAh
|
Will Tucker Carlson be banned or face sanctions from any EU countries for his Putin interview?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-07T08:17:35
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:08:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4CTjjeXrYOkJiY4qbtv0
|
Will OpenAI launch an Image Editor for Dall-E 3 (e.g. in-painting) before April 2024?
|
Image Editing Capabilities: The tool must support at least one form of image editing, such as cropping, color adjustments, text overlays, applying filters, or in-painting.
Launch Verification: A launch is considered initiated if there is an official announcement by OpenAI or credible user reports on platforms like Twitter about partial rollouts or beta access to new image editing features.
[tweet]
|
2024-02-07T02:35:34
|
2024-04-01T01:20:42
|
2024-04-01T01:20:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hSPDGSkTIt03IkXWk7Ly
|
Will the House impeach Mayorkas by February 16th?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-06T22:58:51
|
2024-02-13T16:32:28
|
2024-02-13T16:32:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aG6lzVzFFbQC4XarDvRI
|
Will Barack Obama make 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Barack Obama makes 8 or more Twitter(X) posts in May 2024
Only Posts counts. Repost and replies do not count.
https://twitter.com/BarackObama
Note: A quoted post are still counted as a post, as long as it doesn't have a repost header.
|
2024-02-06T18:31:02
|
2024-05-30T14:19:54
|
2024-05-30T14:19:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lHUfBELcZRdOSdLQoTwl
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Volodymyr Zelenskyy in 2024?
|
Lex has been vocal for a long time now about his desire to interview Zelenskyy and Putin. Today, after the official news that Tucker Carlson has interviewed Putin, Lex tweeted:
[image]There's already a similarly formatted Lex/Putin market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Seeker/will-lex-fridman-interview-vladimir-23abc09d0991)Resolves yes only if the interview is published in 2024 (interviews confirmed or rumoured to take place but not yet released before 2024 ends will not count).
tagging @LexFridman because I wish he would come back to Manifold 🧡
|
2024-02-06T17:04:51
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T21:45:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VcWNzApXR1Kje23k9FiK
|
Will Adam Neumann buy back WeWork before the end of 2024?
|
At least be a part of the new ownership group, does not have to be the majority shareholder after the deal.
Via Tech Crunch:
"It looks like Adam Neumann is attempting to buy WeWork out of bankruptcy.
In a letter published by The New York Times, lawyers for Neumann, his latest startup Flow Global Holdings LLC and “their affiliates” wrote that they were dismayed with “WeWork’s lack of engagement even to provide information” in response to efforts to be able to make an offer to buy the company."
|
2024-02-06T16:00:08
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:02:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ySiOetTrkOFZxBNL3ekr
|
Will the 2024 US presidential election be extremely close (within 100,000 votes for electors to the Electoral College)?
|
The United States has a recent history of extremely close presidential elections.
In 2016, Donald Trump won against Hillary Clinton by less than 80,000 votes between Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin (Washington Post).
In 2000, George Bush famously won against Al Gore by only a few hundred votes in the state of Florida.
This question resolves YES if 100,000 votes or less (i.e. the total vote difference between the top two candidates) distributed over any number of states/districts, would have made the difference between one presidential candidate or the other winning by electors to the Electoral College.
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-02-06T15:18:24
|
2024-11-14T14:17:25
|
2024-11-14T14:17:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JJGs2k8XqMZJDx2MVQfg
|
Will Tucker Carlson release an interview with Vladimir Putin by the end of Valentine's Day? (Feb 14)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-06T14:49:38
|
2024-02-08T19:07:55
|
2024-02-08T19:07:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M3dfyS8wQ2uXk75a749h
|
Will Taylor Swift be successful in her legal action preventing tracking her private jet?
|
https://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/music/news/taylor-swift-private-jet-tracker-b2491584.html
Similar to the debacle involving Musk, Swift has reportedly issued a C&D against Jack Sweeney, who uses public information sources to report on the activity of Swift's jet(s).
This market will resolve to NO if Sweeney is still tracking the jet, and publishing updates that include locations, 6 months from now. For it to count, at least one update must be issued between the 7th of July, and the 7th August, 2024.
Any information source attributable to Jack Sweeney (who lists relevant accounts here: https://grndcntrl.net/links/ ) will count, but accounts run by others (i.e. the Streisand effect) will not.
|
2024-02-06T14:26:54
|
2024-08-02T05:47:46
|
2024-08-02T05:47:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NZRX61MYKRAr7EAPoBef
|
Will Taylor Swift's new album (Tortured Poet Department) have an average song length >3:30? (Midnights was 3:23)
|
Taylor Swift's eleventh studio album (Tortured Poets Department) is scheduled to release on April 19th. This market resolves YES if its average song length is longer than 3 minutes and 30 seconds.
I will resolve this based on the Standard Edition of the album (or the closest equivalent I can find), i.e. excluding bonus tracks [1].
Average (mean) = total runtime / # of tracks.
Here are some examples from her previous albums, to clarify how I plan to calculate this (feel free to ask if you think there's anything off):
Midnights: her previous album has 15 tracks, and a total runtime (standard edition, excluding bonus tracks) of 44:02, implying an average song length of 3:23.
Lover: 18 songs, 61:48 runtime, average length of 3:26.
Reputation: 15 songs, 55:38, average of 3:43.
1989: 13 songs, 48:41, average of 3:45.
In the case of a tie (e.g. 16 listed tracks, 56:00 runtime, for exactly 3:30 average) this would resolve NO (strictly greater, although when taking the average I won't round).
I don't expect there will be any real ambiguity about song lengths—I'll resolve once they're officially posted (likely just using Wikipedia, but I can look around for the original source).
If any aspects of resolution are unclear, please ask.
[1]. I assume this will be fairly straightforward to define (on Wikipedia her previous albums have a "standard edition" listed). For example, currently Wikipedia lists 16 tracks (split between Sides A/B/C/D) and a 17th track ("The Manuscript") that's exclusive to the physical album. It seems safe to assume that the 16 tracks constitute a standard edition and the 17th is "bonus". And I plan to similarly exclude other "bonus" tracks that aren't on every standard album. Still, note when placing your bets that it's possible she will follow an unusual structure, and I'll be forced to make a subjective judgment call about what to consider a "bonus track". (TLDR: it's very likely that it'll just be the 16 tracks currently listed, but that could change if new information comes out).
|
2024-02-06T14:17:19
|
2024-04-18T22:02:30
|
2024-04-18T22:02:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vscgzMoWAJLZMzdttTRq
|
Will Jimmy Carter become a "viability centenarian"? (100 years after a 24 week pregnancy) [after mid-June 2024]
|
assume gestation is 40 weeks, then subtract 24 weeks for viability, so ~16 weeks before birth
[roughly June 11, 2024, backtest and figure out if he dies between June 11 and June 30]
EDIT UPDATED DEFINITIONS
https://healthcare.utah.edu/womens-health/pregnancy-birth/preterm-birth/when-is-it-safe-to-deliver#:~:text=If%20a%20fetus%20reaches%2032,as%20high%20as%2095%20percent.
Resolves to 85 percent yes at July 9. 28 weeks is 80 percent viability
If Jimmy Carter dies between July and October, he becomes the first centenarian president BY OBJECTIVE DEFINITION, there's no denying it.
[viability centenarian might be the most important definition of centenarian - babies are older than their birthdate - preterm babies are not older than babies conceived earlier but born later]
|
2024-02-06T13:10:58
|
2024-07-07T21:42:25
|
2024-07-07T21:42:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y81hnOg4knKl57dntzIg
|
Will any major social platform integrate OpenAI’s metadata to visibly indicate AI-generated images in 2024?
|
Major Social Platform: The platform must have at least 50 million active monthly users at the time of integration (e.g. Instagram, Facebook, Twitter, Threads, TikTok, ...)
Integration: The platform must implement a feature that utilizes OpenAI’s metadata to show a clear and distinguishable indicator on or near AI-generated images.
Visibility: The indicator must be immediately visible or become visible with a single user action, such as hovering or clicking on the image.
Confirmation: Integration will be considered confirmed when the social platform issues an official press release or when the feature is live and observable by users.
[tweet]
|
2024-02-06T12:24:06
|
2024-12-18T00:25:00
|
2024-12-18T00:25:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IHpEAxg9vBxD7enNJNBk
|
Will Adam Neumann buy back WeWork in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-06T11:50:51
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2024-12-31T22:24:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XSx8gv37XGjBCiBbI5Jn
|
Will Jimmy Carter turn 101?
|
Resolves YES if former US president Jimmy Carter is alive on his 101st birthday (October 1st, 2025)
|
2024-02-06T10:48:27
|
2024-12-29T13:58:50
|
2024-12-29T13:58:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0SVAnwiEQ6L2ERzcaNS3
|
Will Adrian Newey be announced for Ferrari F1 Team by 2025 January end?
|
If Red Bull Racing CTO is announced at Ferrari Formula One Team at any role by the end of January 2025, this market resolves to YES.
I may bet.
|
2024-02-06T08:37:47
|
2024-09-10T09:43:30
|
2024-09-10T09:43:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9oOiqFpWsc8ZvWdWViGB
|
Will the NFL sell a "SWIFT" Chiefs jersey before the start of the 2024/25 season?
|
Official jersey, not custom.
NFLshop.com
|
2024-02-06T08:31:13
|
2024-08-02T19:25:44
|
2024-08-02T19:25:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2qAy0GVtgwAhUY2IjDd
|
Will Taylor Swift appears as a guest on New Heights before May?
|
Before May 1, 2024
|
2024-02-06T08:28:35
|
2024-04-30T21:06:29
|
2024-04-30T21:06:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OmNlq7RtjvvFEUu6J7uM
|
Will Nikki Haley's approval rating be higher than the total seconds Taylor Swift is shown live at Super Bowl LVIII?
|
Nikki Hayley's approval rating from 538 at eod ET March 1, 2024.
No if drops out of race.
Taylor Swift seconds live on CBS broadcast.
|
2024-02-06T07:32:16
|
2024-03-02T20:59:00
|
2024-03-02T21:07:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Knh2NmnqM58ohjAlKsEe
|
Will Christian Horner be the Red Bull team principal at the start of the 2024 Formula 1 summer break?
|
He is being investigated for inappropriate behavior toward a subordinate. Resolves NO if his permanent removal is announced (and not e.g. being contested in court), even if he later returns this will still resolve NO.
|
2024-02-06T07:12:19
|
2024-07-28T07:34:53
|
2024-07-28T07:34:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XFUWeTMPRaA5Kjpa4qW4
|
Will Trump mention Taylor Swift on Truth Social on Super Bowl Sunday?
|
ET
|
2024-02-06T06:54:16
|
2024-02-11T11:33:43
|
2024-02-11T11:33:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-213f1OQ2i1cWJldecsAo
|
Will this be the most bet on Super Bowl ever?
|
Resolves yes if there is a credible news story by the end of February that states this has been one of the most bet on Super Bowl's ever. Must be a claim made across the board, not just from a single sports book, but multiple. Resolves no if there is no such article by the end of February. If something comes out in the months after, this can be re-resolved.
|
2024-02-06T06:51:24
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:07:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UIVrXjAYXweb6R2504mz
|
Will S&P500 hit $5100 before $4800?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves Yes if S&P500 hit $5100 first
Resolves No if S&P500 hit $4800 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-02-06T05:31:20
|
2024-02-28T12:13:36
|
2024-02-28T12:13:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L5g0vUHK89t0xZFPQHHI
|
Will S&P500 hit $5000 before $4900?
|
Start courting from market creation
Resolution according to Yahoo finance Historical data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves Yes if S&P500 hit $5000 first
Resolves No if S&P500 hit $4900 first
Market close date will be extended as needed.
|
2024-02-06T05:31:11
|
2024-02-08T17:13:57
|
2024-02-08T17:13:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mxFgF7L3GksExH1nE4OX
|
Scammers used deepfakes to steal $25 million in Hong Kong. Will this go down as the biggest deepfake scam of 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if we don't find out about a scam that relies on deepfakes stealing more than the equivalent of 25 million USD. Resolves No if we find out about a scam that relies on deepfakes and steals more than this number.
A single scammer hitting multiple targets for a cumulative total >25 mil does not count: it has to be a single job. I will not count whether they eventually get caught, only if they manage to get the money in hand as the Hong Kong scammers did (they might also get caught still after all).
|
2024-02-06T03:24:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-16T06:16:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W0q8aaWzJoSwAGY2ndhb
|
Will Christian Horner resign from leading Red Bull before April?
|
Red Bull has launched an investigation into inappropriate conduct in their Formula 1 team boss Christian Horner: https://twitter.com/ErikvHaren/status/1754482455107584244?t=807epPhmmQ1bGzma7vcE-g
Will he resign from Red Bull leadership before April? Can also include him taking a hiatus from leadership, is about leading team position.
|
2024-02-06T02:03:54
|
2024-04-01T23:40:43
|
2024-04-01T23:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GcsEP5ebRIeYLWzb2Hja
|
Will Israel have a ground incursion in Rafah by April?
|
Ground incursion as they have now in Gaza, Han Yunis, Dier el Balah etc
not just special forces, but holding ground.
I will not bet on this market
|
2024-02-06T00:27:07
|
2024-04-01T13:09:50
|
2024-04-01T13:09:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b2jC049rsuYTOvPckjTk
|
Will Alec Baldwin be found guilty of a crime before Hunter Biden?
|
Open until either happens
|
2024-02-06T00:12:39
|
2024-06-11T20:40:33
|
2024-06-11T20:40:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2gjwz259zHdDG3phvl4Q
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on February 6th 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-06T00:10:29
|
2024-02-07T00:29:34
|
2024-02-07T00:29:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NZgPLAxED42d3QI1Zp7O
|
Will King Charles the 3rd be alive tommorow?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T22:23:14
|
2024-02-06T23:59:00
|
2024-02-07T11:14:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2mRUyEBnKNBNHYoFeIpc
|
Will Taylor Swift's "The Tortured Poets Department" album have a Metacritic score >85?
|
I will resolve based on the Metascore on May 3rd (two weeks after release). I don't expect the score will be shifting much at that point, but the market will resolve based on the score I find whenever I check on that date.
This is "Metascore" (i.e. for critics, not users). For reference, the Metacritic scores for Taylor Swift's past five albums:
Midnights: 85
Evermore: 85
Folklore: 88
Lover: 79
Reputation: 71
I will use the rounding presented by Metacritic (i.e. Midnights lists 85, and thus does not count as >85, I won't look for further precision).
|
2024-02-05T21:07:34
|
2024-05-03T06:47:10
|
2024-05-03T06:47:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l3FUQietpBNc2mFsBwRY
|
Will a non-QB win Super Bowl MVP?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T19:56:25
|
2024-02-12T06:57:36
|
2024-02-12T06:57:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p9pyRcwb6ZgfUNUFLkO1
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 surpass 4M views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Joe Rogan's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 4M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-02-05T19:54:30
|
2024-04-30T20:59:56
|
2024-05-01T17:30:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q4tKdoeyS1NwSZwQu4h2
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 4M views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Joe Rogan's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@joerogan/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Joe Rogan's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 4M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-02-05T19:54:07
|
2024-04-01T05:52:52
|
2024-04-01T05:52:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OiSLHHro6lYiWQCOgvbD
|
The US will have their first female president in 2024?
|
Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Carrie Poppy: I guess the royals are not celebrities. “The US will have their first female president.” Okay. Specific. Good.
Ross Blocher: Uh-oh, Does that mean Nikki Haley? Mm.
Carrie Poppy: Well, at least that would be confirmatory.
Ross Blocher: Oh, I guess it could also be like the other predictor was saying that Kamala Harris will take over. So. Okay.
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
With the podcast ending, I can no longer simply defer to the host's judgements for the resolution. Please vote in this poll if you have thoughts on how I should resolve these markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cibyr/how-should-the-onrac-prediction-mar)Resolution criteria if "best judgement" wins the poll:
YES if:
Kamala Harris wins the 2024 presidential election, or
Kamala Harris becomes president via the operation of the 25th amendment during 2024, or
any other woman wins the 2024 presidential election or becomes president during 2024
for example, via electoral college shenanigans
NO if no woman wins the 2024 presidential election, nor becomes president during 2024
|
2024-02-05T19:43:36
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:01:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UVBZfR2g84P8kDLf7Nup
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 surpass 1M views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Lex Fridman's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@lexfridman/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Lex Fridman's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 received over 1M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-02-05T19:42:44
|
2024-02-28T05:34:29
|
2024-02-28T05:34:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CraCGUOIVLakYsEhbiPe
|
Will Putin in Russia will have a major health crisis in the months of May through August?
|
Tracking predictions from the podcast Oh No, Ross and Carrie! episode 399. Transcript available at https://maximumfun.org/transcripts/oh-no-ross-and-carrie/transcript-oh-no-ross-and-carrie-ep-399-ross-carrie-and-psychics-predict-2024-cancer-cures-and-election-edition/
Carrie Poppy: [...] Okay. “Putin in Russia will have a major health crisis in the months of May through August.” Zelensky of Ukraine, she keeps hearing “the well runs dry for his leadership from the end of October 2024 ‘til March of 2025.”
Ross Blocher: Oh, we’ll be able to half-evaluate that.
I will resolve according to their evaluation in 2025 ("No" for a zero on their scale, "N/A" for one, and "Yes" for two)
|
2024-02-05T19:18:47
|
2024-08-31T23:59:00
|
2024-09-11T08:32:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nyt1GF9rnSpl8LBHpoDB
|
Will Tucker Carlson release an interview with Vladimir Putin before the next Apple event?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T16:00:44
|
2024-02-08T18:44:51
|
2024-02-08T18:44:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j05wzYMQ9j72ZTX3KlfK
|
Will Jason Kelce jump through a burning table by the end of February?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T13:11:41
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:08:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lXkSv7YCw1eRYedclVLk
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 20% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of George Washington's Birthday?
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-02-05T12:32:42
|
2024-02-22T20:59:00
|
2024-02-22T21:29:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9d0b9JkuRj5GKel7G1xO
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive King Charles?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T12:07:23
|
2024-12-30T09:55:07
|
2024-12-30T09:55:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8OE8PJeUfUowtSNFXqwk
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 20% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of Mardi Gras/Fat Tuesday? (Feb 13)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-02-05T12:00:22
|
2024-02-13T20:59:00
|
2024-02-13T21:03:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3BxvWCSAAw1DfRDpzaVL
|
Will the 2024 Vesuvius Challenge grand prize be claimed?
|
Note: This is not the 2023 award, which was already claimed.
Background: The Vesuvius Challenge is a machine learning and computer vision competition to read the Herculaneum Papyri. In the first stage of the competition, a grand prize was awarded to a team who managed to make 5% of the scrolls readable, mostly through advances in ink detection. Stage 2 of the Challenge requires advances in autosegmentation, the process of digitally unfolding the scrolls, that would allow 90% of the scrolls to be read. Details TBD.
|
2024-02-05T11:40:41
|
2025-02-01T13:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:03:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WGd3j85mreSgYmpWe7fj
|
Will Netflix increase prices in 2025?
|
Any price increases on any plans count. Changing which features are available on plans to force subscribers to upgrade to retain the same level of service, or otherwise reducing the value of a plan will be considered a price increase (shrinkflation).
|
2024-02-05T11:22:17
|
2025-02-11T17:02:05
|
2025-02-11T17:02:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CD5geViF6SQboxVZmk05
|
Will King Charles III still be alive by the end of 2024?
|
King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-68208157), will he survive the year?
|
2024-02-05T11:18:23
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:43:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x9POindTkbLT2ccNQIe2
|
Will League of Legends still have over 5% of watch time market share on twitch on the 1st of January 2025?
|
The current statistics can be seen here. In the latest stats League of Legends has a watch time of 7.4%. I'm curious if you expect the popularity of this game will decline relative to other games.
|
2024-02-05T10:37:40
|
2024-12-30T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:39:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XuFGeU8LjSdz16cT0tlo
|
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $661.60 per share on February 9, 2024?
|
Weekly prediction for NVDA.
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $661.60 USD on the closing price of 9 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
|
2024-02-05T10:26:32
|
2024-02-10T13:18:36
|
2024-02-10T13:18:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LAK0nyt2dc5o8eg5ZstL
|
Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $177.66 per share on February 9, 2024?
|
AMD Weekly prediction
Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $177.66 USD on the closing price of 9 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ
|
2024-02-05T10:25:06
|
2024-02-10T13:18:10
|
2024-02-10T13:18:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HLGd7h14NM9S6PyTfrDS
|
Will Taylor Swift be seen using the Vision Pro before 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-05T09:11:29
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T07:35:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CzBlp3P2GCLNDPfkGm82
|
Will the Nasdaq 100 index (NASDAQ:NDX) close positive for the month of February 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the NDX is greater than the opening price. (17216.99)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
|
2024-02-05T08:28:22
|
2024-02-29T12:00:00
|
2024-02-29T13:36:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0SzoGXtyKqh6yFkauk14
|
Will any chess player born after 1st January 2004 reach a live rating of 2800 in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if any chess player born after 1st January 2004 reaches a classical rating of 2800 or more on 2700chess.com. Resolves NO otherwise. Market is valid until 31st December 2024
|
2024-02-05T06:56:39
|
2024-12-12T17:27:18
|
2024-12-12T17:27:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZhYdoeGfZ7kmf0DF13Xk
|
an LLM as capable as GPT-4 runs on one 4090 by March 2024
|
e.g. Winograde >= 87.5%
|
2024-02-04T23:33:07
|
2024-03-06T20:59:00
|
2024-03-17T23:36:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gpAlszNrnF1Z0JVBMKBp
|
Will Tucker Carlson interview Putin in February?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-04T20:17:09
|
2024-02-07T22:42:31
|
2024-02-07T22:42:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xRynwvAOE8IyLOQexup5
|
Will Mark Cuban read The Origins of Woke?
|
This market will settle as YES if Mark Cuban publicly states that he has read at least part of The Origins of Woke by Richard Hanania some time in 2024.
|
2024-02-04T19:54:30
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-11T07:01:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-emyNCxZU9ql4E0N46a5T
|
Will Jimmy Carter vote in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
Just being alive isn't enough.
If he's dead before he can vote, it is NO
If he is alive, but too dead to vote it will resolve N/A without credible reports he voted.
A news story of Jimmy voting (or similar) is a clear YES
|
2024-02-04T18:40:42
|
2024-10-22T21:35:00
|
2024-10-22T21:35:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bewo4sdCYhTOEWT0fALR
|
Will Google offer a paid subscription-based chatbot by April 2024?
|
Same resolution criteria as the below market, except that the subscription must be available by the end of March 2024.
Feb 8 EDIT:
This resolves as YES if 1) it is possible to sign up for a chatbot subscription, 2) that requires payment information at the time of signup, 3) and has a fixed-length trial period (even if the period extends past April 1st).
(https://manifold.markets/embed/RachelFreedman/will-google-offer-a-paid-subscripti)
|
2024-02-04T17:54:35
|
2024-02-08T22:29:33
|
2024-02-08T22:29:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m7oiuilRmOiHYve3MYYo
|
Will Congress pass a new Ukraine aid package by the end of February 2024?
|
This has the same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/Domer/will-the-united-states-congress-pas, but with a different resolution date.
The package must have >$1 billion in new aid to Ukraine, and the House and Senate must pass the same version of the bill by February 29th to resolve YES. Otherwise, resolves NO.
|
2024-02-04T16:53:15
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:30:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dOAmCLEXqjoikGm6tCCA
|
Will Elon Musk tweet, retweet or directly respond to a tweet with a link to the Tucker Carlson - Putin interview?
|
It is rumored that Tucker Carlson may be doing an interview of Vladimir Putin.
If the interview is published in 2024, will Elon Musk tweet, retweet, or directly respond to a tweet with a link or video of the interview or an excerpt of it?
Clarifications:
1) If the interview doesn’t happen or is not published, in full or in part, in 2024, this market resolves N/A.
2) By “tweet”, I mean a post or comment on X (formerly known as Twitter).
3) If Elon Musk is responding to a tweet that contains a link or video of part of the interview, this resolves Yes, even if Musk’s tweet itself does not include the link or video.
4) If Musk quote-tweets a tweet that includes a link or a video of part of the interview, this resolves Yes.
|
2024-02-04T15:42:10
|
2024-02-08T16:00:14
|
2024-02-08T16:00:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IP1Ea0Rvsda69ZHQwpI1
|
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
#Politics #USPolitics #Elections #JoeBiden
|
2024-02-04T14:17:13
|
2024-11-06T16:57:47
|
2024-11-06T16:57:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aPh5gZB4GjNJvXN6kju3
|
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 presidential election?
|
as reported by the BBC
|
2024-02-04T14:16:31
|
2024-11-06T14:00:00
|
2024-11-06T15:22:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E12cHmAB7iAcTn5Bth72
|
Will Bitcoin Reach $60k by March 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-04T12:23:50
|
2024-02-29T03:17:26
|
2024-02-29T03:17:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J0zrfZf3KSVVfZefZFHb
|
Will Red Bull take BOTH P1 and P2 in the 2024 Bahrain GP?
|
Resolves Yes if the two Red Bull cars take both first and second place. Resolves N/A if the places aren’t awarded (canceled race, etc). Resolves No otherwise.
|
2024-02-04T07:23:05
|
2024-03-02T12:30:07
|
2024-03-02T12:30:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-paFyQDHCEGMQXcrP2t4u
|
[SuperBowl] Will the total score of Kansas City Chiefs v/s San Francisco 49ers be more than 47.5 points?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-04T03:43:13
|
2024-02-11T19:47:35
|
2024-02-11T19:47:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RscL7G0kseDHjjoAe2eo
|
Will Elon Musk endorse Donald Trump for president?
|
This tweet makes me think it's a possibility: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1753590787130994745
|
2024-02-04T03:31:21
|
2024-07-13T23:10:47
|
2024-07-13T23:10:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T8lIU6ci4hjfxJLD77d6
|
Will the S&P 500 (SP:SPX) close positive for the month of February 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the SPX is greater than the opening price. (4861.11)
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
Index: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AwEbTtxK/?symbol=SPX
|
2024-02-04T02:40:59
|
2024-02-29T12:00:00
|
2024-02-29T13:38:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bOPw8u1BY7gHmLWnibfn
|
Will there be a joke about Will Smith’s 2022 Oscar’s slap at the 2024 academy awards?
|
Any joke told on stage or in a video played will count. Doesn’t have to be funny, but has to be intended to be
|
2024-02-03T23:29:02
|
2024-03-10T22:44:41
|
2024-03-10T22:44:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ceIaIp4iHXcKcPfEzUcL
|
Will Jimmy Carter die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 6th week of 2024 (Feb 4 - Feb 10)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2024-02-03T21:11:38
|
2024-02-10T20:59:00
|
2024-02-10T21:16:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-omaoRCwDrhbZrmzQTrfT
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 surpass 200k views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Rational Animation's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@RationalAnimations/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Rational Animation's YouTube channel in Apr 2024 received over 200k views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-02-03T18:34:57
|
2024-04-30T20:59:56
|
2024-05-01T17:31:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vngkk4Po8EmnqooJJSCv
|
Will Tucker Carlson release an interview with Vladimir Putin by EOY 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-03T18:10:26
|
2024-02-08T19:08:17
|
2024-02-08T19:08:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LUSDtNKtji8JfMDFDPfI
|
Will the 49ers beat the Chiefs? - Super Bowl LVIII
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-03T18:05:59
|
2024-02-11T20:59:00
|
2024-02-13T12:09:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4pYt8MbNdFeJF43Nue0t
|
Will Biden lose any delegates in the 2024 Democratic Primary?
|
According to Wikipedia, will Joe Biden lose a single delegate in the primary race?
If Biden loses a single delegate in any primary or caucus, this immediately resolves YES. Otherwise, Resolves NO at the DNC convention when Biden is officially made the nominee.
|
2024-02-03T18:02:52
|
2024-03-12T16:43:23
|
2024-03-12T16:43:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mitdX0R8UkxScdepNuo4
|
Will Apple's Vision Pro Achieve Sales Exceeding 1 Million Units Within Six Months of Its Release?
|
The Apple Vision Pro headset released on February 2nd, 2024. This polls asks whether Apple will sell >1m units of the Vision Pro within 6 months of release, aka by August 2nd 2024.
Apple reportedly has sold over 200,000 of its pricey Vision Pro AR headset in the first 10 days of pre-orders.
The headset costs $3,499 USD, and is currently only available in the US.
Apple is looking to expand to sell in Canada and UK by the end of 2024.
|
2024-02-03T16:38:49
|
2024-08-02T15:59:00
|
2024-08-03T20:02:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tfAdnVvHJ9VgKFwB5LSo
|
Will a Gemini/Bard mobile app be available before March 31st, 2024?
|
This resolves yes
Google officially announced an app dedicated to Gemini/Bard and was available for download by the public before March 31st, 2024
Needs to be available at least in the US
Needs to be available in at least in Google Play Store OR Apple App Store
This resolves to no
App not available for download by any device before 31st, 2024
|
2024-02-03T15:28:14
|
2024-02-08T10:23:16
|
2024-02-08T10:23:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KuV4quxAEAc9p0ncAlgI
|
Will Sweden join NATO before the end of Trump's birthday? (June 14)
|
Resolves at 11:59PM ET on June 14
|
2024-02-03T13:43:34
|
2024-03-07T09:24:27
|
2024-03-07T09:24:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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