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stringlengths 8
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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
7.87k
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stringlengths 19
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-LDyR2DhPn9sA8lULAtqj
|
Will any regional US banks fail in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-03T13:40:08
|
2024-05-01T17:32:31
|
2024-05-01T17:32:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SJOZw5qWC7Xm35hdkak9
|
Will Google offer a paid subscription-based chatbot by June 2024?
|
Resolves YES as soon as any paid subscription is publicly available, or NO if no subscription is available by the end of May 2024. The chatbot does not have to be developed by Google, as long as the subscriptions are marketed and sold by them. If there are multiple tiers of access, resolves YES as long as at least one of them requires a paid subscription.
Feb 8 EDIT:
This resolves as YES if 1) it is possible to sign up for a chatbot subscription, 2) that requires payment information at the time of signup, 3) and has a fixed-length trial period (even if the period extends past April 1st).
|
2024-02-03T13:25:34
|
2024-02-08T22:29:56
|
2024-02-08T22:29:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Yqibe8WuIFJNrgSzMkz
|
Will Japan's JAXA SLIM moon lander "Moon Sniper" survive the lunar night?
|
[image]https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-68131105
https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-lander-dormant-final-photos
BBC article:
"It is not yet clear how long the craft will be able to operate - it all hinges on the angle of the Sun and solar panels. The Sun will eventually set on the lander and Jaxa has previously warned that it was not designed to survive a lunar night, when the surface of the Moon is not exposed to the Sun for about 14 days."
Space article:
"JAXA will need to wait out the roughly 14.5-Earth-day-long lunar nighttime and then wait for favorable lighting and temperature conditions later in the next lunar daytime (which starts around Feb. 15) before SLIM can potentially be revived once more. For the probe to awake again, however, its electronics must hold up in the face of equatorial lunar nighttime temperatures of around minus 208 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 130 degrees Celsius)."
~Feb. 25th, 2024 (my own estimate, plus or minus a few days) is when there should be enough sunlight hitting the solar panels to attempt a revival of the lander.
Resolution Criteria:
-Market will resolve YES if: any signal is received from the SLIM probe indicating the electronics have survived the lunar night
-Market will resolve NO if: no signal is received from the SLIM probe after the lunar night
|
2024-02-03T13:04:38
|
2024-02-26T07:00:08
|
2024-02-26T07:00:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6IQyP6HUupGUPJaixPCP
|
Will Vladimir Putin visit North Korea before a new movie grosses >$140M on its (domestic) opening weekend?
|
Visiting North Korea: I will accept reports corroborated by multiple reputable news organizations as sufficient proof. Feel free to ask if any scenarios feel ambiguous. [1]
Box office: I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for Barbie is listed as $162,022,044, and thus would have counted for resolution (>$140M).
Other details:
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday/other "previews") for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
There is no obvious/strict end date here. If Putin dies, and is no longer able to visit North Korea, I can resolve the market as NO (as an event that cannot happen thus cannot happen "before" a different event) but this case is unlikely to matter.
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[1]. If it happens during 2024, I am likely to follow the resolution of this market: https://manifold.markets/HenriThunberg/will-vladimir-putin-visit-north-kor.
|
2024-02-03T13:03:57
|
2024-06-18T14:50:07
|
2024-06-18T14:52:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bKqoTY4YswOy3YQYFwqW
|
Will Oppenheimer win more Oscars than the # of SCOTUS judges who vote to reverse Colorado's Trump ballot decision?
|
SCOTUS case: To avoid ambiguity, I plan to follow the resolution of this question: https://manifold.markets/SteveSokolowski/will-each-supreme-court-justice-vot
There are 9 independent markets (one for each justice). I will count the number of markets that resolve YES (between 0 and 9).
Oscars: Oppenheimer is nominated for 13 Oscars at the 96th Academy Awards. I will use the number of Oscars that it wins.
If the number of Oscars won is strictly greater than the number of judges whose markets resolve YES, this question will resolve YES. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
For example, if every justice votes in agreement to overturn the Colorado decision (i.e. 9), and Oppenheimer wins each of its nominations (i.e. 13), then this market resolves YES. If the individual justice markets resolve N/A, that will very likely be equivalent to a NO (generally it implies some scenario where they did not vote to overturn the case).
If any potential scenarios for resolution are unclear (or if you have any suggestions for clarifying resolution on the SCOTUS side), please ask!
|
2024-02-03T11:55:55
|
2024-03-10T19:32:17
|
2024-03-10T19:32:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PaP00P0iUgxxp9M5pIoP
|
Will Elon Musk step down as the CEO of Tesla Inc by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-03T09:04:06
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-09T11:56:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3U1qdfCqII6slLrFCZ6p
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Feb. 9 than it closed on Feb 2 (4958.61)?
|
Week before last, all bettors predicted "yes," and the index went up. Nobody lost!
|
2024-02-03T09:00:10
|
2024-02-09T13:17:03
|
2024-02-09T13:17:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IC1JilYb1GIlZKMOlCt9
|
Will Argylle (2024) top the box office for the weekend of February 9th? 📚🍿💰
|
In Argylle’s second weekend (Feb 9-11th), will Matthew Vaughn’s spy comedy claim the #1 spot at the box office (according to The-Numbers)?
This will Resolve when the actuals come in - most typically on Mon/Tues. If you’re seeing any numbers that look like $14,000,000, this is an estimate.
|
2024-02-03T07:17:35
|
2024-02-12T14:58:20
|
2024-02-12T14:58:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5681da3W5SFdeJ5SScFz
|
Will the margin of victory in the 2024 POTUS election in Colorado be greater than in 2020 (13.5%)?
|
Related markets:
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-4db56fb6e136
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-51af5a4e6350
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-19d0d7c91571
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-d54b8b02937c
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-7bbf3bf11afa
@/WalterMartin/will-the-margin-of-victory-in-the-2-b1850c0c8416
The party elected is not relevant to the resolution of this question.
Last election, CNN reported 55.4% - 41.9%: https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/state/colorado
I will use similar criteria for this market, and will not vote in it.
If CNN is reporting within 0.1% of this number, I will look at the actual voter numbers to determine which margin was greater.
|
2024-02-03T04:16:43
|
2024-12-01T20:59:00
|
2024-12-09T14:18:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9QzweWo5172IaMlrml57
|
Will Travis Kelce & Taylor Swift kiss on the field at the Superbowl If KC Chiefs Win.
|
Resolves Yes if they are on the broadcast kissing while on the field.
Resolves No if they are not shown kissing during the broadcast while on the field.
Resolves No if Taylor Swift is not there.
Resolves No if Kansas City Loses Superbowl.
Broadcast=Start of game at kickoff until end of Trophy presentation and CBS starts airing a different show.
|
2024-02-03T03:37:32
|
2024-02-11T20:25:14
|
2024-02-11T20:25:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9B5JgILYXSoMV8u6s3eQ
|
[Metaculus] Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?
|
Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21185/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2024, the National Assembly of Hungary has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO. Resolution will be determined according to reporting by credible sources.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-02-03T02:39:28
|
2024-02-26T08:39:47
|
2024-02-26T08:39:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u21v38ywNCevtZEoW1lN
|
Will Costco close higher than 709.48 on February 9?
|
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
COST closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 9
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-02-02T22:54:42
|
2024-02-09T12:00:00
|
2024-02-09T13:50:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1NUPG7WSrAapRAvBzWVG
|
Will GitHub report more than one incident before February 7th?
|
Resolves to https://www.githubstatus.com/history?page=1
|
2024-02-02T22:33:56
|
2024-02-07T20:59:00
|
2024-02-07T21:55:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KixnI7ycSAcQ5Zi6lhda
|
Will OpenAI report an incident before February 7th?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-02-02T22:32:35
|
2024-02-06T21:55:57
|
2024-02-06T21:55:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8buA67Dx6izur1MmnBIZ
|
Will Bill Belichick get a TV gig before the end of the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
ABC/ESPN, NBC, FOX, CBS, Amazon Prime
Pundit, analyst, presenter, etc.
Can have contract signed, but OK if he doesn't officially start before market close
|
2024-02-02T21:53:27
|
2024-06-25T07:28:38
|
2024-06-25T07:28:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gMKDsrA4nCTZ3hZcM91v
|
Will "Dune: Part Two" have a higher critics score than "Furiosa" on Rotten Tomatoes? (Two weeks after release)
|
Rotten Tomatoes pages:
"Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga": https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/furiosa_a_mad_max_saga
"Dune: Part Two": https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/dune_part_two
I will use the "Tomatometer" scores (i.e. critics, not audience).
Details:
For reference, currently Fury Road has a RT score of 97%, versus 83% for "Dune" (2021). These are the equivalent numbers I will use.
I will use the the listed percentage score, however RT chooses to round it. Thus, if both Dune 2 & Furiosa list RT scores of 90%, this market would resolve NO (as their listed scores are equal), whereas if Dune 2 listed a score of 91%, it would resolve YES.
I will check both RT pages on June 7th (two weeks after the release of Furiosa), and resolve the markets based on the score I find. While I doubt the scores will still be shifting, I can't promise exactly when I'll have time to check and resolve the market on that day. And note that it resolves based on the status of both scores on June 7th ("two weeks after Dune 2's release" is irrelevant to resolution).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
|
2024-02-02T21:47:12
|
2024-06-07T06:03:40
|
2024-06-07T06:03:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L0svyM8mXVYR2CyJPjCE
|
Will India Won That 2024 T20 world cup
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T20:15:33
|
2024-06-29T11:23:29
|
2024-06-29T11:23:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nGNDIp3voQGPqQCtvYAw
|
Will NASA conform the discovery of alien's before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T19:26:31
|
2024-12-31T10:14:00
|
2025-01-31T23:40:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5SdpuTRuwpbHTLfvfL3
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 surpass 150M views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Mr Beast's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mr Beast's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 received over 150M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-02-02T18:12:04
|
2024-03-01T05:18:37
|
2024-03-01T05:18:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B3BHjmnvaHghoPfFYXdY
|
Will Jimmy Carter live to be 101 years old?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T18:05:44
|
2024-12-29T15:40:37
|
2024-12-29T15:40:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BtoxRzx3bNAQZYdWNitV
|
Will more points be scored in Super Bowl 2024 than 2020?
|
The same teams, the Chiefs and 49ers, are having a rematch. The score during Super Bowl 2020 was 31-20. Will more points (52 or more) be scored this time?
|
2024-02-02T17:15:39
|
2024-02-12T07:23:13
|
2024-02-12T07:23:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JrRPp0A5cZ4p1i4k9BI1
|
Will Windows 12 be announced in 2024
|
Resolves to YES if an official announcement is made regarding Windows 12 in 2024. Resolves to NO if no announcement is made.
|
2024-02-02T14:52:46
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:54:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mOIC4wm10PeDu5hDWctQ
|
A paper napkin sells for more than $390,000 at auction in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T14:04:10
|
2024-05-17T06:52:50
|
2024-05-17T06:52:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-14NbsY9yeXjhHgrkeB0j
|
Will Facebook/Meta close higher than 474.99 on February 9?
|
Meta Platforms Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
META closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 9
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-02-02T13:40:22
|
2024-02-09T12:00:00
|
2024-02-09T13:31:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SYq1qpftE0OeVCCw2Fq8
|
Will Dean Phillips drop out of the Presidential race by the end of February?
|
Including suspending his campaign.
|
2024-02-02T12:43:00
|
2024-03-01T04:13:30
|
2024-03-01T04:13:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bzhWrnWuWm2RUeG7SncY
|
Will Garry Tan be YCombinator CEO on July 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T12:40:48
|
2024-07-01T23:59:00
|
2024-07-15T14:44:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8rT2Rnv9dT2Kw9McrsRs
|
Will Trump counter program the Super Bowl?
|
As in participate in a TV or in person event meant to compete with the Super Bowl and the more popular Taylor Swift’s attendance. Post evidence in comments.
|
2024-02-02T12:26:45
|
2024-02-11T22:38:00
|
2024-02-11T22:38:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3dVkIajLt40Sp2nenvr3
|
Will Trump talk about accusations of Nikki Haley’s infidelity before the South Carolina primary?
|
Post evidence in comments. Needs to be live, in an interview or rally, not a Truth Social post.
Since this one can be subjective, I won’t trade in it.
|
2024-02-02T12:24:46
|
2024-02-24T10:18:11
|
2024-02-24T10:18:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3F3Uq8e1Qk2h5N7sFUBM
|
Will the federal reserve cut interest rates before the end of Q2 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T11:38:19
|
2024-07-01T00:01:00
|
2024-07-02T10:35:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8d3VSfqryqy441a0eJK3
|
Will the NFL ban the hip drop tackle before next season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-02-02T10:20:37
|
2024-03-27T06:30:21
|
2024-03-27T06:30:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jyPU1r6gFPVi6w88k8kC
|
Will Taylor Swift endorse or mention Biden during the Super Bowl halftime?
|
Resolves YES if Taylor Swift is seen on TV footage saying the word "Biden" during the Super Bowl halftime, as reported by reliable media. Otherwise NO.
Halftime is defined as from the end of time of the 2nd quarter to the start of time of the 3rd quarter.
https://twitter.com/MikeCrispiNJ/status/1751737386864709767
The NFL is totally RIGGED for the Kansas City Chiefs, Taylor Swift, Mr. Pfizer (Travis Kelce). All to spread DEMOCRAT PROPAGANDA. Calling it now: KC wins, goes to Super Bowl, Swift comes out at the halftime show and "endorses" Joe Biden with Kelce at midfield. It's all been an op since day one.
|
2024-02-02T09:52:25
|
2024-02-11T20:59:00
|
2024-02-12T10:06:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ahfWAK6hbF0uQJe70F2X
|
Will Messi score a goal in February 2024?
|
Any match for club or country.
|
2024-02-02T09:32:51
|
2024-02-26T04:05:14
|
2024-02-26T04:05:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AsAQNeY4etv6BQeZTctU
|
Will there be a presidential debate between the Republican and Democratic nominees in the 2024 election cycle?
|
Joe Biden and Donald Trump, their parties presumptive nominees have yet to debate any of their challengers in the 2024 cycle. Will the eventual Republican and Democratic nominees (whoever that may be) debate each other this cycle? The debates must happen before election day.
This question will resolve to yes after the first debate takes place or after the nominating conventions whichever is later, or no on midnight before election day.
Update July 21: this will only resolve yes after a debate between Trump and whomever is nominated at the Democratic convention.
|
2024-02-02T07:50:31
|
2024-09-13T08:13:12
|
2024-09-13T08:13:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nU5FTHtoDHYZ7GWjrQbJ
|
Will META trade at or above $500/share at any point today?
|
Resolves to YES if $META trades at or above $500/share today.
|
2024-02-02T07:12:01
|
2024-02-02T13:43:55
|
2024-02-02T13:43:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cwZWxteVRgRaZcp9jSuz
|
Bulls vs Bears: Will the S&P 500 hit 5,100.00 before 4,700.00?
|
Resolves only, if the S&P 500 hits 5,100.00 or 4,700.00 points during official NYSE core trading hours after market creation (2024-02-02).
Resolves NO if $SPX <= 4,700.00
Resolves YES if $SPX >= 5,100.00
I'll extend the closing date as needed. Reference is the provided information by NYSE intraday HIGH/LOW (15-minute delay).
This question will close at the earliest 15 minutes after reaching the specified value. In that case, please tag me. If I don't resolve within an hour without a reason, a mod will be allowed to do so.
For free live trading, I recommend using Google Finance or Yahoo Finance.
If you've any questions or if any scenarios are unclear, please ask beforehand. Otherwise, I will use my best judgment to resolve this question. I might seek input from others if I feel too biased. I will bet in this market.
Disclaimer: Do not trade based on unconfirmed market news or news that you may not understand. URL changes will not alter the outcome of this market. If nyse.com experiences an error, etc. for more than 24 hours or if the information is not available for everyone in the future, I will change the source.
|
2024-02-02T02:40:14
|
2024-02-23T06:48:25
|
2024-02-23T06:48:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jPxbILafh7kd4f3ddz4b
|
Will there be a FREEZE in Seattle in February ❄️🧊⛸️?
|
Closes if if the temperature goes below 32*F, or February 29.
Resolves based on the observed meteorological data at Seattle/Tacoma Airport (SEATAC) as recorded @ https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew
NOTE: when you follow this link, change the dropdown from “Olympia”.
[image][image]
|
2024-02-01T23:12:56
|
2024-02-27T23:59:00
|
2024-02-28T05:47:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q0c3PFerIEF8OHZgOcUJ
|
Will there be an audible "Lock Him Up" chant at any point during the DNC?
|
Ka is a wheel.
Self-explanatory question.
It doesn't have to be as loud or consistent as the "Lock Her Up" chants from 2016, just loud enough to clearly hear.
|
2024-02-01T21:55:55
|
2024-08-19T19:22:28
|
2024-08-19T19:22:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-McWq1tz7AlO1dYzvko33
|
Will Elon Musk change his Twitter profile description before the end of Feb 2024?
|
The current profile description is empty
Resolves to Yes if the profile description changed to anything other than empty before the end of Feb 2024
|
2024-02-01T20:50:29
|
2024-03-01T13:38:20
|
2024-03-01T13:38:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mI5dXqSqi6eBeeLg66eg
|
Will the iPhone 16 include a model with no charging port?
|
Resolves Yes if any of the models of iPhone 16 does not have a charging port
|
2024-02-01T18:37:36
|
2024-09-10T15:44:02
|
2024-09-10T15:44:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bR3fPPl0Hgiu9xa1PDIw
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive tommorow?
|
Resolves yes if Jimmy is still alive tommorow.
|
2024-02-01T15:49:48
|
2024-02-02T22:59:00
|
2024-02-03T04:13:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lR5Z5vmP3GTA1kIuMBWq
|
Will Taiwan be invaded by China in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if China officially goes to war with Tiawan this year.
|
2024-02-01T15:34:04
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:38:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ir0NnsqNmKg0UTpFCO2R
|
Will Biden and Trump shake hands on camera in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if a picture/video of Biden and Trump shaking hands is posted on the comments before the end of 2024.
(There has to be accompanying evidence that the picture/video was taken in 2024)
Resolves No otherwise.
|
2024-02-01T15:12:33
|
2024-12-03T09:06:22
|
2024-12-03T09:06:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6llBf6EurGB0e8m7h9Ik
|
Will any Democratic Primary National poll in Mar 2024 show >80% support for Biden?
|
Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/
|
2024-02-01T15:10:15
|
2024-04-10T20:59:00
|
2024-04-11T11:20:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PIpxmMR37NLjlVGOWLyX
|
Will any Republican Primary National poll in Mar 2024 show >85% support for Trump?
|
Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-02-01T15:07:01
|
2024-04-05T06:08:15
|
2024-04-05T06:08:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d1OqQUIOmcp7nIHtK3tp
|
Will any Republican Primary National poll in Feb 2024 show >80% support for Trump?
|
Resolve according to 538 data:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-02-01T15:06:30
|
2024-02-11T11:48:08
|
2024-02-11T11:48:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xp3d7RbZuPrnIyCmnHRp
|
Will OpenAi release an app on the Mac App Store in 2024?
|
As far as I can tell OpenAI doesn't have any Mac apps on the Apple App Store as of now. They have released a ChatGPT app for iOS and iPad but all GPT powered Mac App Store apps are from 3rd parties.
If OpenAI releases a Mac app that doesn't have anything to do with GPT, this still resolves to "yes."
This market will resolve on Jan 1st, 2025.
Please leave any requests for clarification in the comments!
Edit: note that it must be on the App Store specifically.
|
2024-02-01T11:48:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:17:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-12hofRl39Iny4scInswf
|
Will Tesla (TSLA) Shareholders' vote result in incorporation in Texas (before the end of this year's annual meeting)
|
https://www.forbes.com/sites/siladityaray/2024/02/01/musk-says-tesla-will-hold-shareholder-vote-immediately-to-move-companys-incorporation-to-texas/?sh=59cdb3657c9b
resolves YES when the incorporation in Texas is legally certain after initial votes, NO otherwise
If there's no vote scheduled by the end of this year's annual meeting (not scheduled yet), this resolves NO
If a judge is successful at preventing a vote from occurring, then NO.
If vote occurs, a judge blocks after, but the move in incorporation happens anyways, then YES.
If vote occurs, a judge blocks after, and is successful at legally preventing the move (after all appeals), then NO.
|
2024-02-01T09:05:09
|
2024-06-14T08:25:02
|
2024-06-14T08:25:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9wm4j7AjFpnJ6zaSqDlH
|
Will Joe Biden still be alive on March 1st, 2024?
|
Continuing my series of one-month markets on Joe Biden's survival.
As usual, I will not bet on my own market.
|
2024-02-01T08:30:27
|
2024-02-29T22:59:00
|
2024-03-01T10:02:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NMdYmS9G2rFvXsNClCgY
|
Will Donald Trump get at least 75% of the vote in the Michigan Primary?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump gets >=75% of the vote in the Michigan Primary
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GCS/will-donald-trump-hold-a-campaign-e)
|
2024-02-01T08:05:38
|
2024-02-28T05:09:33
|
2024-02-28T05:09:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MNUHNaVKbOWTSXk8AlDt
|
Will the WHO declare a new global health emergency due to an emerging infectious disease by Feb 29, 2024?
|
As of the end of January 2024, there has been no new global health emergency declared by the World Health Organization (WHO) due to an emerging infectious disease. The latest significant declaration from the WHO was the end of the COVID-19 global health emergency, which was announced in May 2023. This decision marked the conclusion of the pandemic as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), but it did not suggest that COVID-19 was no longer a global threat.
Furthermore, the WHO's focus in early 2024 has been on launching an appeal for funding to address existing health crises around the world. In January 2024, the WHO initiated an appeal for US$ 1.5 billion to support the health of vulnerable populations in 41 emergencies globally. This appeal was made in the context of ongoing complex emergencies, influenced by factors such as conflict, climate change, and economic instability.
|
2024-02-01T07:32:38
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-03-01T08:14:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4u872TC0MSTRE0NkDGW4
|
Will Destiny reach 780k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-768k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-773k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-774k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-775k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-780k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-782k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-785k-subscribers
|
2024-02-01T06:15:06
|
2024-02-29T21:05:04
|
2024-02-29T21:05:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MRtl26agGKoTehZvRHGn
|
Will a US Supreme Court justice retire in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if at least one SCOTUS justice resigns or retires from the supreme court in 2024, otherwise NO. Other ways of leaving the court, namely death or removal via impeachment, do not count here, this is about them retiring.
|
2024-02-01T06:10:22
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:25:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bIbywNB5rjNyJsswsDn9
|
[Metaculus] Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?
|
Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21280/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, after January 30, 2024, and before February 7, 2024, the United States publicly confirms that it has carried out attacks against the Iranian military. On January 30, President Biden stated that he has decided how to respond, but the US has not yet publicly revealed its response.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-02-01T02:36:36
|
2024-02-02T14:38:08
|
2024-02-02T14:38:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bf3Itw35fAclrwavNRHW
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die during the month of February 2024
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the month of February 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the month of February 2024
|
2024-02-01T01:46:09
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:04:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NSDctuGXiUpmN7VOy3nS
|
Will Gaza have a ceasefire before the beginning of Ramadan, 2024?
|
This year, Ramadan is expected to begin in the evening on Sunday, March 10, 2024 and end on Tuesday, April 9, 2024.
For the market to resolve YES, a ceasefire has to start BEFORE March 10, 2024 and last -at least- till April 9, 2024.
|
2024-02-01T01:17:33
|
2024-03-09T22:36:53
|
2024-03-09T22:37:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hW9kH0QsO6lC1I9Can7Q
|
Will Vaush reach 474k subs on his main youtube channel in February 2024?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_
|
2024-02-01T00:25:27
|
2024-03-01T00:00:00
|
2024-03-01T00:08:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UY3DHt2s9g4fQiSYHm6P
|
Will Destiny talk to Elon Musk in 2024?
|
Talks about literally anything. Even a hello back and forth on say Fridman's podcast. Literally anything
[image]
|
2024-01-31T21:45:14
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-07T19:14:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B4bhHYJyOgOZLxg0pVfa
|
Will Mahomes throw an interception during the superbowl
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-31T19:45:24
|
2024-02-12T10:38:06
|
2024-02-12T10:38:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8RBAYmfvlcMSPvR2U2hz
|
Will Destiny reach 773k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
|
2024-01-31T17:00:22
|
2024-03-01T05:15:36
|
2024-03-01T05:15:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FBWlBjPwKG9w9PkN8ZqE
|
Will Destiny reach 774k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-768k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-773k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-774k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-775k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-780k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-782k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-785k-subscribers
|
2024-01-31T17:00:15
|
2024-02-29T21:05:58
|
2024-02-29T21:05:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZZ2LZYMAD8WgbLyAh8MS
|
Will General Valerii Zaluzhnyi Lose His Position or Be Demoted by March 31, 2024?
|
This question seeks to predict the professional fate of General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the current Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Participants are asked to assess the likelihood of General Zaluzhnyi either being demoted from his current rank or losing his position in any capacity before March 31, 2024. This includes any form of official dismissal, resignation, or demotion. The outcome will be determined based on credible reports or official statements from the Ukrainian government or reputable news sources.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if, by March 31, 2024, there are confirmed reports or official announcements indicating that General Valerii Zaluzhnyi has either been demoted in rank or has lost his position as Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The question will resolve to "No" if no such changes in his position or rank are confirmed by this date.
|
2024-01-31T16:39:03
|
2024-02-08T10:27:29
|
2024-02-08T10:27:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rKXHlwmPUUR6ndBGd2Es
|
Will New York Community Bank fail in 2024?
|
New York Community Bancorp stock fell 45% today.
Will they fail in 2024?
Resolves YES if New York Community Bancorp, Inc., Flagstar Bank, or any other banking subsidiary of New York Community Bancorp, Inc. is listed on the FDICs list of failed banks in 2024:
https://www.fdic.gov/resources/resolutions/bank-failures/failed-bank-list/
|
2024-01-31T11:46:13
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-12-31T13:43:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ktgJTHrhLp2rZxxSk07M
|
Will Mistral-Large's model weights be available within 90 days of release?
|
Since it looks like Mistral-Medium's weights got leaked (see https://manifold.markets/Vergissfunktor/is-miqu-a-leak-of-the-mistralmedium) and Mistral-Large is likely coming soon (https://manifold.markets/Mira/what-month-will-mistrallarge-be-rel), what will happen when the inevitable Mistral-Large is released?
A model will count as Mistral-Large if it is either worthy of that name, or explicitly given that name, or both.
Resolves to YES if within 90 days of its deployment for public use of some kind, we can download the model weights to Mistral-Large, whether or not those weights come from an official source.
Resolves to NO if within 90 days of its deployment, we cannot download those weights.
If after 90 days there is uncertainty over whether they are available (e.g. a leak we cannot authenticate or disprove) we will either resolve to a percentage or delay, based on whether we can expect clarity soon.
Resolves N/A if nothing worthy of or given the name Mistral-Large is released by EOY 2025.
|
2024-01-31T06:14:09
|
2024-07-16T05:06:47
|
2024-07-16T05:06:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uPTAc0jMdIMX139jKsyL
|
Will the Bitcoin close higher than 42,600 on Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-31T05:00:15
|
2024-02-01T02:41:01
|
2024-02-01T02:41:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KV7BwS6Vw7epmjxJj7tK
|
Will Destiny talk to Sam Harris by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-31T01:49:25
|
2024-08-26T18:42:07
|
2024-08-26T18:42:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k81XAVM2wzPRpaV8zlA9
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 25% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of Valentine's Day? (Feb 14)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-30T22:46:18
|
2024-02-14T20:59:00
|
2024-02-14T21:38:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-21zp5yxP8dsmEZ1Z8f7c
|
Will a poll show Trump with above 90% national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February?
|
This question will resolve YES if a poll on 538's poll tracker shows Trump with 90% or greater national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February 2024.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Noah1/will-a-poll-show-trump-with-above-8)
|
2024-01-30T20:36:01
|
2024-02-29T21:59:00
|
2024-03-01T05:10:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ySQ87xHK5DJSSIqybCY3
|
Will a poll show Trump with above 85% national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February?
|
This question will resolve YES if a poll on 538's poll tracker shows Trump with 85% or greater national support in the Republican Primary by the end of February 2024.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Noah1/will-a-poll-show-trump-with-above-9)
|
2024-01-30T20:35:01
|
2024-02-29T21:59:00
|
2024-03-01T05:10:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zgTlZgWS9mIlss9aYNd5
|
Will Bitcoin increase in February 2024?
|
If CoinGecko's historical data states that the closing price of Bitcoin on January 31st, 2024 is lower than the closing price on February 29th, 2024 then this question will resolve 'YES'.
Otherwise, it will resolve 'NO'.
If Bitcoin increases above the closing price on January 31st but is lower than the 31st's closing price at the end of February, then this question will still resolve 'NO'.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data
RESOLUTION:
Closing early because it turns out that CoinGecko closes its days at UTC, not EST.
Closing price on January 31st: $42,583
Closing price on February 29th: $61,298
+44% in a month, not bad at all.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Athena/will-bitcoin-increase-in-march-2024)
|
2024-01-30T20:02:09
|
2024-02-29T18:47:02
|
2024-02-29T18:49:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5gdCN6ESnhYU6yRKse5x
|
Will S&P 500 price surpass $5,200 before the end of Feb 2024?
|
start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 17)
|
2024-01-30T18:36:46
|
2024-02-29T13:49:56
|
2024-02-29T13:49:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IpxFRoyOQmdOm8266Hn4
|
Will Manchester United beat West Ham during regular time on Sun, Feb 4, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Manchester United vs West Ham
📅 Date: Sunday, February 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester United has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- West Ham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-01-30T16:01:44
|
2024-02-04T08:01:29
|
2024-02-04T08:01:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NRUKcy4NkswkF5U3qyNN
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will the Kansas City Chiefs defeat the San Francisco 49ers by 13 points?
|
Resolves YES if the Kansas City Chiefs defeat the San Francisco 49ers by at least 13 points in Super Bowl LVIII (11 February 2024).
All else resolves NO after the game is over.
|
2024-01-30T15:08:37
|
2024-02-11T19:50:31
|
2024-02-11T19:50:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mj5F6TT4eBpIaxJseCs2
|
Will Taylor Swift Endorse Joe Biden for the 2024 Presidential Election
|
Definition of Endorsement:
Public Declaration: The endorsement must be a public declaration made by Taylor Swift herself.
Platforms for Declaration: It can be through various mediums such as social media (Twitter, Instagram, Facebook), in a public speech, during a concert, in a televised interview, or in a written statement to the press.
Direct Statement: The endorsement should explicitly mention Joe Biden by name, indicating support for his 2024 Presidential Election campaign.
Time Frame:
End Date: The cutoff for the endorsement to be considered valid is Election Day 2024.
Verification:
Independent Verification: At least two independent and reputable news sources must report on the endorsement.
Verification Time Limit: The endorsement must be reported within 48 hours of its occurrence to be considered valid.
Exclusions:
Indirect Support: Expressions of support for policies aligned with Joe Biden's platform without explicitly naming him do not qualify as an endorsement.
Impersonation and Misinformation: Statements made by accounts or sources proven to be impersonating Taylor Swift or spreading misinformation will not be counted.
Clarifications:
Multiple Endorsements: If Taylor Swift endorses multiple candidates, it only counts if Joe Biden is among them.
Formal Statements vs. Casual Remarks: Both formal statements and casual remarks count as endorsements, provided they meet the above criteria.
Resolution:
The question will be resolved affirmatively if all criteria for an endorsement are met within the specified time frame.
The question will be resolved negatively if the time frame expires without a qualifying endorsement.
|
2024-01-30T13:07:08
|
2024-07-24T08:31:41
|
2024-07-24T08:31:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0MtsZecRUqcadX7Rksm1
|
Has Biden bottomed? (In the RCP polling average)
|
In the RCP's Biden vs Trump polling average, the lowest Biden has ever been was 42.6% on May 10th, 2023.
Several times he has gotten very close to this number, including recently when was at 43.0% on Jan 26th, 2024.
If Biden's polling in the RCP Biden vs Trump average is ever lower than 42.6% before election day, this market resolves No. Otherwise, this market resolves Yes.
|
2024-01-30T09:36:11
|
2024-07-21T23:10:41
|
2024-07-21T23:10:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K6diFRibtPKSiPljMd8b
|
Will the Bitcoin go down by more than 10% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolve base on 2024 start to end return
|
2024-01-30T07:47:01
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:55:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DAVC2ds1rFSNKECwAjQK
|
Will the Bitcoin go down by more than 20% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolve base on 2024 start to end return
|
2024-01-30T07:46:54
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:55:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xrRV1jLbJBdEc9C3Xlvo
|
Will the Bitcoin go up by more than 10% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
Resolve base on 2024 start to end return
|
2024-01-30T07:46:29
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:55:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C6EAhHysQmcjiELv9DnQ
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 20% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-30T07:44:35
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9YB7p4rn6urKvffzAo4B
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 15% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-30T07:44:26
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Q3dm6g9Orm7csZjJs7U
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 10% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-30T07:44:20
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xOwwQFf6vFn1AKYzfnJq
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up by more than 5% over 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-30T07:44:13
|
2024-12-31T19:04:38
|
2024-12-31T19:04:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3wKBdWkgYjWNzxJJ6I0u
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) increase by over 6% on any day in Mar 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
The Bitcoin price for this resolution is denominated in USD
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 6% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T07:09:44
|
2024-03-05T11:04:52
|
2024-03-05T11:04:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TRDajQdGyaXxHlmVhHEw
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) increase by over 6% on any day in Feb 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
The Bitcoin price for this resolution is denominated in USD
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 6% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T07:09:33
|
2024-02-29T06:40:25
|
2024-02-29T06:40:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EI4DJxc7lc78ctXtxaY0
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 1.5% on any day in May 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 1.5% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T07:03:18
|
2024-05-31T13:58:06
|
2024-05-31T13:58:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ABCYLmQRdgyAWCi9kdY
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 1.5% on any day in Feb 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 1.5% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T07:02:44
|
2024-02-22T13:39:01
|
2024-02-22T13:39:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G1Huq8VaMHnTp8ZwNftZ
|
Will Vermont's Condorcet ranked choice voting bill become law?
|
Vermont bill H.424 "An act relating to town, city, and village elections for single-seat offices using ranked-choice voting" differs from the usual RCV bills and ballot measures around the country because it uses Condorcet's method to count the ballots instead of the usual Hare's method.
I personally think this is a far superior method and hope it becomes law, but have no idea whether it has a chance or not.
Here's what it says about the current status:
Last Recorded Action
House 2/28/2023 - Read first time and referred to the Committee on Government Operations and Military Affairs
Committee Meetings
Regular Session 2023-2024
Meeting Date: Thursday, April 13, 2023
Committee: House Committee on Government Operations and Military Affairs
|
2024-01-30T07:02:01
|
2024-08-31T17:43:48
|
2024-08-31T17:43:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HU49BjbQnPkC5lf52pxp
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Oct 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 2% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T06:59:19
|
2024-10-31T20:59:56
|
2024-11-07T21:28:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gkPrLgP5eQDlBksPd5Yl
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in May 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 2% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T06:58:23
|
2024-05-31T13:58:20
|
2024-05-31T13:58:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xXVotM1ECOT2Sp9xnuRK
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Mar 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 2% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T06:58:01
|
2024-04-01T05:44:12
|
2024-04-01T05:44:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dBVWBDi1DKF4BRXiDZWq
|
Will S&P 500 increase by over 2% on any day in Feb 2024?
|
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
Resolves YES the market close price of one day is over 2% higher than the previous day market close price
|
2024-01-30T06:57:19
|
2024-02-22T13:38:16
|
2024-02-22T13:38:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I4DoTyoIzwl0hA2Y4LSW
|
Will S&P500 index value fall below 4750 in February 2024
|
Will be verified with Yahoo Finance data
|
2024-01-30T04:25:30
|
2024-02-29T14:59:00
|
2024-03-06T14:41:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iI7d5bfBumWQoRXXodI5
|
Will AMD's (NASDAQ Ticker: $AMD) stock price close above $177.25 per share on February 2, 2024?
|
AMD Weekly prediction
Will resolve YES if AMD's stock closes above $177.25 USD on the closing price of 2 of February, 2024. Any moves above that price during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMD:NASDAQ
|
2024-01-30T03:23:31
|
2024-02-02T14:22:43
|
2024-02-02T14:22:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JWEhP2K2bnNkwA6fSe2B
|
Will Boris Nadezhdin be declared a foreign agent before the end of 2024?
|
Boris Nadezhdin is a Russian opposition politician who aspires to run for president in March's presidential election.
The question resolves YES if he is declared a foreign agent in Russia before the end of 2024.
Author betting policy.
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
|
2024-01-30T00:43:48
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:11:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ffS33z7obnaZyEkvlkzh
|
Will any of the strawhats get new haki (armament/observation/conqueror's) by the end of Egghead?
|
The haki has to be new in the sense that each strawhat must not have shown that haki in the previous arcs...
|
2024-01-30T00:30:56
|
2024-08-14T14:56:18
|
2024-08-14T14:56:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hRTUd8Nd2aEF41HO7DFs
|
Will Apple release a new iPad by April 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a new Apple iPad model is available for US consumers to purchase any time before April 1, 2024.
Edge cases: If a new model is available for pre-order before April 1, resolves YES. If a new model is announced, but not available for purchase or pre-order, resolves NO.
|
2024-01-29T23:45:46
|
2024-03-31T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T19:00:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JdzeDb1uj0W97JlMjdQ8
|
Will Trump say the words "I am sorry for.."?
|
If he does, please provide evidence (link, or some verifiable evidence)
|
2024-01-29T23:22:41
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-06T05:36:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sZQMTaJBv8qYsxbaGaNu
|
Will the NBA have a first-time champion in 2024?
|
The 10 teams that have never become NBA champions are the Clippers, Grizzlies, Hornets, Jazz, Magic, Nets, Pacers, Pelicans, Suns, and Timberwolves.
|
2024-01-29T21:07:24
|
2024-05-31T05:16:57
|
2024-05-31T05:16:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6dY0lYsivjha12rcYS8v
|
Will Sweden join NATO before the end of the Ides of March? (March 15)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T21:02:57
|
2024-03-07T09:09:05
|
2024-03-07T09:09:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y8K0lIoCCsI7MrrP40Tp
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $50,000 at the end of Apr 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T18:44:26
|
2024-05-01T18:57:16
|
2024-05-01T18:57:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kiQI377EYb7EJ3sJ5kFW
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $50,000 at the end of Mar 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T18:44:16
|
2024-03-31T18:38:11
|
2024-03-31T18:38:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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