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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-evyN2qoxWl9i7huzIrys
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 30M views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts on Mark Rober's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@MarkRober/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Mark Rober's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 30M views at the end of the month
(Go to the individual video page to get the accurate view count to single digit, resolution will be based on that)
*Resolves NO if no video is uploaded for the month
|
2024-01-29T18:35:07
|
2024-04-01T05:41:33
|
2024-04-01T05:41:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FX2qIsGGQnxfb1dC8Rv6
|
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the second half of 2024?
|
Singles, EPs, bonus tracks and re-recordings (Taylor's version albums) will not be considered albums.
|
2024-01-29T18:22:10
|
2024-12-30T22:30:00
|
2024-12-31T09:18:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1AqdI3VubeOqYhRx9zRC
|
Will Taylor Swift release a new album in the first half of 2024?
|
Singles, EPs, bonus tracks and re-recordings (Taylor's version albums) will not be considered albums.
|
2024-01-29T18:21:54
|
2024-04-23T19:17:00
|
2024-04-23T19:17:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z8BtNI8cQDhgIzYAYwGj
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 surpass 800k views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts displayed on Destiny's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Mar 2024 received over 800k views at the end of the month
Resolves NO otherwise
|
2024-01-29T18:14:25
|
2024-03-29T09:22:40
|
2024-03-29T09:22:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uCezQjTMK5Hl6NUXKjLG
|
Will any of the videos uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 surpass 500k views?
|
Resolution base on the video view counts displayed on Destiny's youtube channel AT THE END OF THE MONTH
https://www.youtube.com/@destiny/videos
Resolves YES if one of the video uploaded to Destiny's YouTube channel in Feb 2024 received over 500k views at the end of the month
Resolves NO otherwise
|
2024-01-29T18:13:29
|
2024-02-29T13:46:44
|
2024-02-29T13:46:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CeuJPxGLPFFVdQAtffVW
|
Will $AMZN go up after earnings? (Feb 2024)
|
Amazon announces earnings after market close on February 1st.
The baseline will be the stock price at stock market close on February 1st, before earnings announcement. I will update the manifold market with this price when known.
Edit: baseline is $159.28
This market resolves yes if the stock price at market close on February 2nd is higher than the baseline. N/A if prices are equal. No otherwise.
This market closes at the end of day February 1st, before stock trading on Feb 2nd starts.
|
2024-01-29T18:13:23
|
2024-02-02T00:00:00
|
2024-02-02T15:54:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ws4nIXshSkiHxqayyh6N
|
Will Enel appear in egghead?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T17:47:35
|
2024-11-19T12:52:06
|
2024-11-19T12:52:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CtFV2OdqIhUGTLYdkrxq
|
Will a human use Neuralink to transmit at least 4 bits per second?
|
Elon Musk has tweeted about a successful implantation of a Neuralink device. Will it prove to be consciously controllable enough to send such a tiny flow of information? For the reference, a touch typist on a qwerty keyboard transmits 10-100 bits per second.
Resolves YES by a peer-reviewed paper, or multiple reputable media sources, demonstrating the capability.
Resolves NO in a year.
|
2024-01-29T16:59:10
|
2024-05-05T08:05:03
|
2024-05-05T08:05:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PYfpKQ8vFQXz99Krpeab
|
Will OpenAI have incidents on more days in February than in January?
|
Resolves based on status.openai.com. Multiple incidents on the same day count as one day.
|
2024-01-29T14:31:39
|
2024-03-01T20:59:00
|
2024-03-11T22:47:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VgDGbiMfmXFPv1eTNdfN
|
Will GitHub have incidents on 7 or more days in Feburary 2024?
|
Resolved based on https://www.githubstatus.com/history?page=1. Multiple incidents on the same day counts as 1 day.
For reference, here's the recent outages per month:
January: 6
December: 6
November: 8
October: 6
|
2024-01-29T14:30:18
|
2024-02-29T21:31:03
|
2024-02-29T21:31:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v1tGPyNiqrpJKSGEWbdG
|
Was Amelia Earheart's plane just discovered in the Pacific?
|
From NPR:
The team spotted the plane-shaped object between Australia and Hawaii, about 100 miles off Howland Island, which is where Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan, were supposed to refuel but never arrived.
The shape of the object in the sonar images closely resembles Earhart's aircraft, a Lockheed Electra, both in size and tail. Deep Sea Vision founder, Tony Romeo, said he was optimistic in what they found.
"All that combined, you'd be hard-pressed to convince me that this is not an airplane and not Amelia's plane," he said.
I'll check back on this in 6 months. If things are still uncertain, I'll extend the close/resolve date. I won't bet in this market.
|
2024-01-29T13:02:45
|
2024-11-24T23:07:57
|
2024-11-24T23:07:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oQnO80a8pIoimlvTyQf5
|
Will Taylor Swift endorse a US Presidential candidate for the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T12:51:55
|
2024-09-11T03:59:55
|
2024-09-11T03:59:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fBSMnIdXsMR4NgXg9cW5
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US Presidential Election, which is set to take place on November 5th, 2024?
|
Release means it is announced and made available to the public via ChatGPT or the OpenAI API.
Will resolve as N/A if somehow the US election doesn’t happen. Or if somehow the model is leaked unintentionally.
|
2024-01-29T10:42:10
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-21T06:46:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cH43vbQOTBx9MBVCAVvo
|
Will Travis & Jason Kelce both retire before the start of the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T10:22:26
|
2024-04-30T21:08:55
|
2024-04-30T21:08:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U4k698rUETk1sC4rnN3h
|
Will $META go up after earnings? (Feb 2024)
|
Meta announces earnings after market close on February 1st.
The baseline will be the stock price at stock market close on February 1st, before earnings announcement. I will update the manifold market with this price when known.
Edit: Baseline is $394.78.
This market resolves yes if the stock price at market close on February 2nd is higher than the baseline. N/A if prices are equal. No otherwise.
This market closes at the end of day February 1st, before stock trading on Feb 2nd starts.
|
2024-01-29T09:02:38
|
2024-02-02T00:00:00
|
2024-02-02T15:53:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dYFBToPmgt6DVoTroO97
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it the 4th of July 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
|
Resolves yes if Jimmy Carter is alive at 12am CST on July 4th, 2024
|
2024-01-29T07:53:43
|
2024-07-04T21:59:00
|
2024-07-07T07:05:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ANlq8z63LiJEaXFeFOZj
|
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift before the 2025 Super Bowl?
|
edit 2/4/24 To clarify, anytime before the 2025 Super Bowl would count, doesn't have to be immediately or very close before
|
2024-01-29T07:52:53
|
2025-02-10T22:07:15
|
2025-02-10T22:07:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hmBvAI7KEvYOALNqokqi
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Valentine's Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T07:49:14
|
2024-02-14T20:59:00
|
2024-02-15T05:31:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iyseIqhJSj7cWowT2MDa
|
Will Mistral ever deploy its best LLM without releasing its model weights up through AGI?
|
Same as (https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-meta-ever-deploy-its-best-llm) except for Mistral instead of Meta.
Resolves YES if Mistral deploys an LLM, whatever name it might have, that is at least as strong as its best other LLM, either as a ChatBot, API access or as clearly used in another consumer product offering, and within 30 days of that deployment it is not possible to download the model weights.
Resolves to NO if Mistral releases the model weights to a model it self-describes as AGI, or that clearly constitutes AGI as per OpenAI's definition as of 1 Jan 2024.
Also resolves to NO if Mistral fails to release what they claim to be substantially improved LLM for 36 consecutive months, or for 24 months after the market closes.
Resolves to N/A on 1/1/35 if somehow none of the above criteria are met (to be safe).
|
2024-01-29T06:53:53
|
2024-02-02T13:42:40
|
2024-02-02T13:42:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EaAnmWjnOsbcllKoNdeV
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before the next NFL season?
|
If Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift break up before the start of the 2024 NFL season, this question resolves YES. If they don't break up before the start of the 2024 NFL season, this question resolves NO.
The 2024 NFL season is expected to start on Sep 5, 2024, but this is subject to change.
|
2024-01-29T05:47:57
|
2024-09-05T20:59:00
|
2024-09-06T04:24:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-86lvdlbSi6KfmtDLZDdr
|
Will the Russia Ukraine war conclude by 2025
|
Event concludes on Jan 1st 2025 if the conclusion is made before Midnight December 31st 2024 then resolved YES. If armistice is agreed upon before 2025 but actual terms regarding territory or reparations still resolves as a YES. Ceasefire is not a conclusion so will be a NO, as the war may still continue later on still being the same war.
|
2024-01-29T02:22:18
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:07:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-whblgD7Gsl7GefNBtFjm
|
Open AI will allow users of ChatGPT+ to use/call more than one GPT simultaneously in a single prompt by March 15, 2024.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-29T01:33:57
|
2024-03-16T02:59:00
|
2024-03-18T19:27:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uYZ3EsJMnnGOQSAN0RCq
|
Will the Supreme Court affirm that Trump participated in an insurrection?
|
Question will remain open until court’s ruling on the Colorado case is issued.
|
2024-01-28T21:53:08
|
2024-06-30T19:03:58
|
2024-06-30T19:03:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nu7PYeKIoJ55y2QtIMz6
|
Will a 1 seed win the 2024 NBA Finals?
|
Will the Celtics or Thunder win the NBA finals?
|
2024-01-28T21:23:46
|
2024-06-17T20:02:28
|
2024-06-17T20:02:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EiDStZlNLUfNZdGSlqUd
|
NFL Super Bowl 2024: Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs by more than 2.5 points?
|
This is the opening line for the 2024 NFL Super Bowl.
https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-super-bowl-odds-opening-line-49ers-sit-as-favorites-over-chiefs-in-super-bowl-lviii-as-betting-begins/
|
2024-01-28T20:34:32
|
2024-02-11T21:19:16
|
2024-02-11T21:19:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rase3v9lcfCZ1SpCxUWV
|
NFL Super Bowl 2024: Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T20:32:20
|
2024-02-11T19:48:44
|
2024-02-11T19:48:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pvzAchkGkqh5oKK0zuHo
|
In 2024, will at least 100 US military personnel be killed by enemy action in the Middle East?
|
This question will resolve YES if, as of January 1, 2025, major news sources have reported at least 100 deaths of US military personnel (soldiers/sailors/similar) killed by enemy action in Middle Eastern conflict of all types-- so the recent deaths of 3 soldiers in a drone strike in Jordan very much counts.
|
2024-01-28T19:26:07
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:59:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M9mqmY616QiW9NGt1MyW
|
Will Taylor Swift propose to Travis Kelce at Super Bowl LVIII?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T19:09:07
|
2024-02-12T02:34:14
|
2024-02-12T02:34:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NE41FM31IOLnGWKIagv9
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs by more than 2.5 points? [Super Bowl LVIII]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T19:06:38
|
2024-02-11T21:14:34
|
2024-02-11T21:14:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BDOEqmtgrfnpiVEaQ8rG
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Superbowl LVIII?
|
Resolves according to title. I aim to resolve immediately post-game.
|
2024-01-28T18:59:09
|
2024-02-11T20:59:00
|
2024-02-12T02:30:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I1XK8g9pYzPcFCAb6bID
|
Will Facebook/Meta close higher than 394.14 on February 2?
|
Meta Platforms Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
META closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 2
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-01-28T18:21:09
|
2024-02-02T12:00:00
|
2024-02-02T13:35:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cMT1W2ugoBep0sw7A47v
|
Will Tesla close higher than 183.25 on February 2?
|
Tesla Inc
Resolves according to Google Close Price or Investing Historical Data
TSLA closes at 4pm EST
This market closes at 3pm EST on Feb 2
Resolves YES if stock closes higher than stated price.
Resolves NO if stock closes lower.
Resolves 50% if stock closes flat.
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
Market Inspired by Haws, SirCryptomind, Christian, Simon Grayson, and Nickten
|
2024-01-28T17:45:01
|
2024-02-02T12:00:00
|
2024-02-02T13:36:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ffn6PbCQOKDJPRzOfN2W
|
Will any head of state or head of government of a UN member country be assassinated in 2024?
|
Resolves according to reliable news reports or whatever
|
2024-01-28T15:40:45
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T07:10:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kd08MBSlcgASqKD6rmTv
|
Will Travis Kelce propose to Taylor Swift at Super Bowl LVIII?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T14:57:31
|
2024-02-11T21:09:43
|
2024-02-11T21:09:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-txtEhnx3tHADzDt5czBP
|
Will an Ukrainian F-16 score an air-to-air kill of a manned Russian aircraft in 2024?
|
Will there be public evidence that an Ukrainian piloted F-16 gains an air-to-air kill of a manned Russian aircraft or helicopter during 2024? This question excludes drone or unmanned vehicle kills.
|
2024-01-28T13:57:15
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-02T13:06:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jPiKubvkF4rIta2rdFUT
|
Will Pierre Poilievre appear on Tucker Carlson's show in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T13:06:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-25T15:21:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RVO3hVLycBVPzr8XVUMS
|
Will a Canadian team win the 2023-2024 NHL Stanley Cup?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T13:04:19
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-31T17:02:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1R28w61GeOqqF7h222qU
|
Will there be violence associated with the "Take Our Border Back" event that results in at least one death by Feb 3rd?
|
This market resolves to 'YES' if there is at least one death by Feb 3, 2024 attributed to violence associated with the "Take Our Border Back" (https://takeourborderback.com/) convoys or affiliated rallies and demonstrations.
https://takeourborderback.com/
Resolution will be based on news media reporting available in the day following market close.
'YES' resolution would result from any death of or caused by a participant in the "Take Our Border Back" event, law enforcement or other agents of government responding to the event, counter-protesters, or immigrants encountering participants in the event.
'YES' resolution would involve a death that is the direct result of physical violence (e.g., a heart attack death resulting from an altercation does not count)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Massive Truckers’ Convoy to Rally at Border Hotspots, Urging Action on Immigration (msn.com)
"A substantial convoy of truckers is gearing up to embark on a journey to three migrant hotspots in the United States, with the aim of pressuring the White House to address the escalating migration crisis.
This initiative, known as the ‘Take Back Our Border’ event, is set to bring several big rigs to Eagle Pass in Texas, Yuma in Arizona, and San Ysidro in California, commencing on January 29 and lasting for four days.
The organizers of the truckers’ convoy are urging peaceful participation, commencing on Monday, with trucks traveling across the country and converging on the border hotspots on January 29.
The convoy will culminate in rallies in Eagle Pass, Yuma, Arizona, and San Ysidro, California on February 3."
|
2024-01-28T11:45:25
|
2024-02-03T21:59:00
|
2024-02-04T04:40:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YZBSzW6DngpKiy3m0zgM
|
Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record?
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-28T10:36:06
|
2024-08-12T09:28:31
|
2024-08-12T09:28:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6P6qhXKY5NN4SXWtWioJ
|
Will Trump suffer a major medical incident before the 2024 election?
|
Trump is dealing with a lot at the same time:
77 years old
A struggling business, even before his initial election bid
91 felony charges
Election campaign
Thus, this market wants to approximate the chances Trump a major medical indicent before the 2024 election.
This market will resolve in YES if there are public reports of Trump suffering from a potentially life-threatening condition (ex: stroke, heart attack, etc). This will include him suffering complications from other conditions, such as getting an infection from an elective surgery.
Otherwise, this market will resolve as NO.
|
2024-01-28T08:03:03
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T13:39:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZMPu19euPkZcnvQXAJbq
|
Will Germany have a one-party or two-party government before 2030?
|
Resolves yes if Germany has a government consisting only of members of one or two parties at any point before 2030.
CDU and CSU count as one party; ministers without a party affiliation are ignored.
As far as I know, this has been the case for every German government from 1957 to 2021.
|
2024-01-28T07:43:34
|
2025-02-25T11:04:04
|
2025-02-25T11:04:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UE5F6AzMkV72KFNZt7Sk
|
Will Michelle Obama replace Joe Biden as the Democratic Nominee for the 2024 Presidential Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-28T05:59:11
|
2024-08-20T19:08:22
|
2024-08-20T19:08:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-urTtf7zoRWcEfi3NvgfV
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
|
If something insane happens and the elections is postponed, then the market will update itself to the new election date\
Release is to the public, not to red teamers or safety testers or extremely limited betas
|
2024-01-28T02:30:59
|
2024-11-06T16:53:28
|
2024-11-06T16:53:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LTgUkkV41k7o70S3n0Gg
|
Will Donald Trump and Xi JingPing meet in person in year 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if there are credible evidence or credible news media reporting that the two have met in person in year 2024
|
2024-01-27T20:31:19
|
2024-12-30T20:59:56
|
2025-01-02T05:31:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6CiQImi6pMkLhqk3C8ML
|
Will Alec Baldwin get convicted on any charge for the Rust movie shooting?
|
Baldwin is facing 2 charges: Negligent use of a firearm and Involuntary manslaughter without due caution or circumspection. If convicted he could face up to 18 months in prison.
|
2024-01-27T17:57:19
|
2024-07-12T15:27:52
|
2024-07-12T15:27:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tldGudWFWh22nQdUtaVu
|
Will the total number of countries that have declared Bitcoin as legal tender be greater than 5 by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-27T16:48:56
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:37:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZkMcR75tX85LOW5Q77eN
|
Will Taylor Swift make a public statement about the AI/deep fake explicit photos?
|
AI/Deep fake explicit photos of Taylor Swift were widely spread on X recently. Will she release a public statement about it? Any official statement attributed to her counts (e.g. from her publicist) and on any media platform. Statements from indirect or related entities (e.g. her record label, tour company, etc) don't count, nor does a response from her to a question in an interview. This is about her releasing a statement about it and not about her ever talking about it. Question closes in 30 days to "no" if nothing released by then.
|
2024-01-27T14:47:26
|
2024-02-26T20:59:00
|
2024-02-26T21:03:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nON9bAHhgNVqnQl84jaH
|
Will EJ Carroll sue Donald Trump a 3rd time?
|
Last year, Donald Trump lost a defamation suit to EJ Carroll and was ordered to pay $5 million. He then defamed her again after a few days and Carroll sued him a 2nd time and Trump was ordered to pay extra $83 million.
Will Trump eventually say something that will trigger a 3rd lawsuit from E Jean Carroll?
|
2024-01-27T12:59:03
|
2025-02-03T14:59:00
|
2025-02-08T14:44:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RBRL4XLSJc2X6GyCbDx8
|
Will chess.com have 200 million members by the end of 2024
|
Will be resolved using the following link. At the time of creating this market, chess.com has 161 million members.
https://www.chess.com/members
Will resolve YES if chess.com has 200 million members by the end of 2024.
Will resolve NO otherwise.
I will allow myself to bet on this market as this is a question that I have no ability to manipulate the outcome.
|
2024-01-27T08:45:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:15:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VCO0gwW1KIuipt0DFWlu
|
Will Mr Beast reach 330M subscribers in 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/mrbeast6000/monthly
|
2024-01-27T06:37:17
|
2024-11-19T12:42:25
|
2024-11-19T12:42:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZLKjueJP6MQKbG31aliC
|
Will Mr Beast reach 370M subscribers in 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/mrbeast6000/monthly
|
2024-01-27T06:37:10
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:42:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MfzK2zLdhL4Axs6hCKFJ
|
Will Mr Beast reach 350M subscribers in 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/mrbeast6000/monthly
|
2024-01-27T06:37:00
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:42:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ufAYnpeTEa55UVodc5aG
|
Will Mr Beast reach 250M subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/user/mrbeast6000/monthly
Relevant markets:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-mr-beast-reach-240m-subscriber
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-mr-beast-reach-250m-subscriber
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-mr-beast-reach-260m-subscriber
|
2024-01-27T06:36:01
|
2024-02-29T21:06:49
|
2024-02-29T21:06:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lo4t1KLuklJAlmjmXqzE
|
Will Destiny reach 800k subscribers in Apr 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
|
2024-01-27T06:34:20
|
2024-05-01T14:59:00
|
2024-05-01T15:10:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6fx9Tc4qFmCXGIUCLaDB
|
Will Destiny reach 790k subscribers in Mar 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
|
2024-01-27T06:33:49
|
2024-03-31T18:44:35
|
2024-03-31T18:44:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FJdsBieIXKoSnqbMAkRu
|
Will Lex Fridman reach 3.7M subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/lex_fridman/monthly
March market:
[markets]
|
2024-01-27T06:32:02
|
2024-02-29T15:31:52
|
2024-02-29T15:31:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kGlfQN5a45dzj9fha4Ye
|
Will Jackie & Shadow's eggs hatch? 🦅 Bald Eagles
|
Jackie and Shadow, a pair of bald eagles, have laid their first eggs of the 2024 season in Big Bear. The couple’s nest is located about 145 feet up in a Jeffrey Pine tree in Big Bear Valley in the San Bernardino Mountains.
WATCH LIVE NEST CAM:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B4-L2nfGcuE
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/VAH022D_J-8?si=9LoZ8A4wXKFlrIrO)Resolves yes if one or all eggs (there are now 3!) hatch as reported by a credible source.
[image]
|
2024-01-26T21:45:55
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-04-30T21:04:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW
|
Will Zubear Abdi face legal trouble for sharing explicit photos of Taylor Swift generated by AI?
|
Legal troubles generally refer to situations where an individual or entity faces legal challenges or actions due to alleged violations of laws or regulations. This can encompass a variety of scenarios, including:
1. Criminal Charges
2. Civil Lawsuits
3. Regulatory Actions
4. Investigations
5. Legal Notices and Cease-and-Desist Letters
6. Arbitration and Mediation
In each of these scenarios, the individual or entity typically needs to engage with the legal system, which can involve hiring legal representation, responding to legal actions, appearing in court, or complying with legal decisions and judgments.
Will resolve by the end of 2024 based on information available from credible news sources.
|
2024-01-26T19:16:44
|
2024-12-30T19:45:43
|
2024-12-30T19:45:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y9jY2qOuFHlWYYkeNGtQ
|
Will Bitcoin hit 48K in February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T18:41:59
|
2024-02-09T11:49:10
|
2024-02-09T11:49:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OBo7sMTsnPul0sFKYO44
|
Will Bitcoin hit 55K in February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T18:40:36
|
2024-02-26T17:50:46
|
2024-02-26T17:50:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4fXQ9SJibHKTaAq4jQNi
|
Will Bitcoin hit 50K in February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T18:39:45
|
2024-02-12T13:24:30
|
2024-02-12T13:24:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6cbXRDKISHYHz4UtvDZO
|
Will Palworld have more players than the Nintendo 64 sold units (32.93M) by the end of Mario Day (March 10th)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T16:14:44
|
2024-03-10T20:59:00
|
2024-04-19T13:15:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2eYepv728Nb32pjafPkr
|
Will Humane AI be sold or fold in 2024?
|
Will Humane Ai as we know it be absorbed or shutdown before 2025?
Edited
|
2024-01-26T13:19:48
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:36:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fCYBNUtILUioteKgCUBr
|
Will an Israel:Hamas ceasefire come before a Russia:Ukraine one? ☮️🤝🇷🇺🇺🇦🇮🇱🇵🇸
|
Will there be an agreed upon Israeli-Hamas ceasefire before there is an agreed upon Russian:Ukrainian pause in fighting?
For this to count, the ceasefire must be agreed to by both sides, or by designated proxies, and must last for 24hrs before being broken/dissolved. A formal cessation in fighting in either war, through surrender or armistice, will also count.
This market will extend, as needed.
|
2024-01-26T12:41:54
|
2025-01-31T14:10:11
|
2025-01-31T14:10:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LHBDLw2OIXpR5El3Q2ri
|
Will Alec Baldwin be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter by July 1, 2025?
|
Actor Alec Baldwin has been indicted for two counts of involuntary manslaughter in New Mexico over the fatal shooting of cinematographer Halyna Hutchins on the set of the film Rust. He has since asserted his right to a speedy trial, and his first court date is Feb 1, 2024 (https://deadline.com/2024/01/alec-baldwin-rust-hearing-set-1235804282/).
Will he be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter of Halyna Hutchins by July 1, 2025?
A conviction on any count suffices, and the conviction need not be related to the current court proceedings.
|
2024-01-26T12:12:59
|
2024-07-12T20:25:15
|
2024-07-12T20:25:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cLhsk79bjn9G0IMfEnGX
|
[Metaculus] Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecuti...onald Trump, et al. case?
|
Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21120/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves "Yes" if, prior to April 1, 2024, credible sources report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).
The mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney for the prosecution (e.g. a voluntary withdrawal or a disqualification by the court) does not matter, so long as credible sources report that Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-26T11:18:51
|
2024-04-01T12:01:03
|
2024-04-01T12:01:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-At8pwdSArlxqOxhFBbQj
|
Will there exist an AI music generator at least as good as DALL-E 3 by the end of 2024?
|
DALL-E 3 successfully makes images that look photorealistic, or in a certain style. It doesn't always understand the prompt, meaning it may draw something different than what the creator intended. But given a certain image, it could easily pass for a photo or drawing made by a human.
Same criteria for music. It must be able to make songs that sound like they could have been popular human-created songs. Instrumental only is fine, it doesn't need to be able to do lyrics. But it does need to be able to handle an entire song, not just a clip a few seconds long.
Resolves according to my judgement, I won't bet. I like a lot of instrumental music, so if there exists an AI music generator that I like enough to replace my current human playlists, that would likely be good enough. If there isn't one, and the reason isn't because it's just too expensive for me, that means this'll probably resolve NO.
|
2024-01-26T10:42:34
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T12:06:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0I8gnWzJabfJXncAC3g9
|
Will Joe Biden make it to November 2024 (i.e. will he still be alive)?
|
Self-explanatory. Will he be able to survive?
|
2024-01-26T09:14:28
|
2024-10-30T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T13:09:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0hxCOQHVZUboPi2U9L3g
|
Will the candidate who wins the popular vote in the 2024 presidential election become president?
|
"Win the popular vote" means they get more total votes than any other candidate.
This market could for example resolve NO if they:
Lose the electoral college vote.
Are banned last-minute from becoming president, such that they were on the ballot but can't take office.
Die before taking office.
|
2024-01-26T09:12:23
|
2025-01-21T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T19:27:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hSeddZ9CsHf5etdbuqvs
|
Will Destiny reach 775k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-768k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-773k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-774k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-775k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-780k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-782k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-785k-subscribers
|
2024-01-26T08:26:26
|
2024-02-29T21:04:50
|
2024-02-29T21:04:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vn6zHwaQG1XFdn5Rozk3
|
Will Destiny reach 770k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-768k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-773k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-774k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-775k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-780k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-782k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-785k-subscribers
|
2024-01-26T08:25:44
|
2024-02-20T20:08:57
|
2024-02-20T20:08:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kdvsf8XSpUGNhGvrQuBG
|
Will the developers of Palworld be sued for infringing on Pokemon's intellectual property in 2024?
|
There are several companies who could sue the developers of Palworld, namely Game Freak, Nintendo or the Pokemon Company. This market is resolved as "yes" if any of them, or one of their subsidiaries, sues the developers of Palworld in any country for infringing on their intellectual property
|
2024-01-26T08:12:52
|
2024-09-18T18:42:39
|
2024-09-18T18:42:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ou5lVJUuPEslahzNwdOw
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $44,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:29:01
|
2024-02-29T13:57:55
|
2024-02-29T13:57:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6V25pESPyceyDizthntL
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $43,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:28:55
|
2024-02-29T13:53:27
|
2024-02-29T13:53:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X2RXJNst5FCAk2A8Fg3h
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $42,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:28:48
|
2024-02-29T13:52:41
|
2024-02-29T13:52:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-orFQ37ttwkrJmfTyUVTc
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $41,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:28:42
|
2024-02-29T13:53:09
|
2024-02-29T13:53:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BnpPv8dAf2m7sVX1iGye
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $45,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:26:17
|
2024-02-29T13:58:21
|
2024-02-29T13:58:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ci1TXZULgZVjcxhznHN
|
Will the Bitcoin close above $40,000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-26T07:26:09
|
2024-02-29T13:52:21
|
2024-02-29T13:52:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QsA9qZKWUA8N7Qq9nlZu
|
Will the Bitcoin price drop below $40,000 before the end of Mar 2024?
|
Start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 26)
|
2024-01-26T06:10:49
|
2024-03-31T18:58:48
|
2024-03-31T18:58:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n5NE4occgtmn1gFukAcv
|
Will the Bitcoin price drop below $38,000 before the end of Mar 2024?
|
Start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 26)
|
2024-01-26T06:10:20
|
2024-03-31T18:37:01
|
2024-03-31T18:37:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C8eQgcMFSC2tDwWlSALq
|
Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's debate gain 5M views within a week?
|
Resolves Yes if YouTube shows that Lex Fridman's video of the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro has 5 million or more views before YouTube shows the video as being 7 days old.
Resolves No if the video does not reach 5 million views before the video is 7 days old.
|
2024-01-26T06:06:18
|
2024-01-30T10:45:04
|
2024-01-30T10:45:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pNQgTGSkEQG0lNlv7ctE
|
Will Oversimplified (YouTube channel), post a video this spring?
|
main channel only
Not YouTube shorts
Spring is from March 1 to the 31st of May
|
2024-01-26T04:10:17
|
2024-05-31T20:59:00
|
2024-06-02T13:40:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0RB0yzqx7DDjKjsG81Kc
|
Someone dies wearing Apple Vision Pro in 2024
|
Same as the market below except limited to 2024.
Will close at the end of November so no bets can be placed during the last month and resolve a few days into 2025 to allow for news sources to report.
'Resolves Yes if a credible news story is released confirming the death of one person who was wearing Vision Pro at the time.
Death by any means resolves yes, person just has to be wearing it at time of death.'
Resolves no otherwise.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GabeGarboden/someone-dies-wearing-apple-vision-p)
|
2024-01-25T23:11:15
|
2024-12-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:44:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZwU5UOwh4rrIER6H1gQf
|
Will Novak Djokovic announce retirement from professional tennis in 2024
|
This market resolves to yes if Novak Djokovic announces his plans for retirement from professional tennis. The market resolves to yes if the announcement is made within 2024 (even if the announced retirement date is later)
If no such announcements are made by the end of the year the market is resolved to no.
|
2024-01-25T20:57:32
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T17:48:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AkL79YfwRooDPSRsUPLa
|
Will Nintendo / The Pokemon Company sue Palworld before April?
|
Resolves YES if Ninentdo or The Pokemon Company sues the developers of Palworld for any reason before April 1 2024, ET, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise NO.
Context: https://www.ign.com/articles/as-palworld-blows-up-could-nintendo-successfully-sue-the-controversial-pokemon-with-guns-game
|
2024-01-25T18:21:26
|
2024-04-01T20:59:00
|
2024-04-02T05:29:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7FRyI5mZzv945DxCw7e6
|
Will Haley hit 25% in her national polling average?
|
Resolves according to https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/?ex_cid=manifoldmarkets
Resolves YES if she hits 25.0%; NO when she becomes the nominee or drops out
|
2024-01-25T13:05:31
|
2024-03-06T11:02:51
|
2024-03-06T11:02:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5DEMnZNVs2JW8gGKHSdh
|
Will Trump be photographed holding a gun before election day?
|
We’re in an election year, and while Trump probably isn’t struggling with the gun enthusiasts, he does love a photo op. Will Trump be pictured holding a gun in 2024 (photo must be taken after this post was live)?
Resolves NO on election day, if no proof is submitted prior.
Things that will count:
This photo, if taken this year.
This article/video, if taken this year.
Things that will NOT count:
Photos taken without clear authorship [the photo should be (re)posted by a notable source - major paper, Trump himself, news source…etc, or widely confirmed as being true].
Anything generated by AI.
This photo, if it were taken this year - he’s not holding the gun.
|
2024-01-25T08:40:09
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-06T17:11:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cdzl4WvIpynoJjJJk7Kh
|
Will AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) become the leader of polls in Germany in 2024?
|
This will resolve to YES, if AfD becomes the most popular party in Germany in 2024.
The resolution source is the Kalman average of polls presented by Politico's Polls of Polls: https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/germany/
[image]
|
2024-01-25T00:51:15
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-25T14:56:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VSLW5LVpP7NMJf6CJtHo
|
Will there be an Apple Event in 2024 before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-24T20:24:32
|
2024-03-07T09:24:47
|
2024-03-07T09:24:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bf72W5tAKmOznVf5TJtE
|
Will Reddit IPO before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-24T19:21:36
|
2024-03-07T09:24:34
|
2024-03-07T09:24:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QMtppuozXXgI0ROJX7IR
|
Will Mean Girls finish 1st at the box office 3 weeks in a row?
|
Mean Girls has topped the weekend domestic box office two weeks in a row, will it complete the threepeat? This will be based on the actuals (not estimates) for the weekend of January 26th as reported by TheNumbers.
The Beekeeper has outperformed Mean Girls on both Monday and Tuesday daily’s.
|
2024-01-24T18:32:58
|
2024-01-29T15:14:52
|
2024-01-29T15:14:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qBFWDZRtnvrkqd3DtbQQ
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on more than 9 days in February?
|
As of the 24th, https://status.openai.com/history shows incidents on 8 days in January. Will there be more than 9 in February?
|
2024-01-24T18:22:19
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-02-29T21:33:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ot0qhu1kfLTooC6KlLvX
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 28?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-24T18:16:28
|
2024-01-29T10:54:34
|
2024-01-29T10:54:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yQSZksDjv8qXrhVhoVQ1
|
Will the LA Chargers electrocute the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 (MNF) Harbaugh Bowl
|
The brothers are scheduled to play against each other in the 2024/25 season. 🥊
|
2024-01-24T18:04:47
|
2024-11-25T20:33:18
|
2024-11-25T20:33:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f8rplkhBRe6R0C4msLmb
|
Will Boris Nadezhdin be on the ballot for 2024 Russian presidential "election" ?
|
Boris Nadezhdin (Nadezjdin), a Russian presidential candidate who vocally opposes the war in Ukraine is planning to run against Russian President Vladimir Putin in March. Reports indicate he is close to collecting the necessary signatures and overall support is growing.
The question will be whether the Kremlin allows his candidacy to proceed, possibly to give a perception of real elections or find an excuse to disqualify him for the ballot as he garners more support and protest vote becomes more visible.
Several news updates such as
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/exclusive-in-russia-anti-war-candidate-tries-to-harness-protest-vote-against-putin/ar-BB1hb6ez
|
2024-01-24T18:02:04
|
2024-02-21T22:33:29
|
2024-02-21T22:33:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bQRJQHXS9xwlN8kh0HH7
|
Will Nikki Haley get more votes than Donald Trump in the 2024 South Carolina Republican Primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-24T17:32:19
|
2024-02-24T16:58:04
|
2024-02-24T16:58:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uiT0dkGtrXQLIkQ2gfZE
|
Will Llama 3 (405B) be released before Sep 2024?
|
Resolves to yes if LLama 3 is released before September 1st 2024.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-sep (this question)
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov
Other questions for Sep 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-924b66b9430e
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Llama 3 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Llama 3) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on Meta's premium offer (if one exists for these models) that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-24T14:59:39
|
2024-07-24T10:16:44
|
2024-07-24T10:16:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3bVGD1axDBUloF2A5Cot
|
Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's debate gain 6M views within a week?
|
Resolves Yes if YouTube shows that Lex Fridman's video of the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro has 6 million or more views before YouTube shows the video as being 7 days old.
Resolves No if the video does not reach 6 million views before the video is 7 days old.
|
2024-01-24T14:33:13
|
2024-01-30T10:44:40
|
2024-01-30T10:44:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ODCrbnfNsCXcuMJlFLLR
|
Will there be a vice presidential debate before the 2024 US presidential election?
|
This question resolves YES if there is a live vice presidential debates (virtual or in-person) between the vice presidential candidates for the Republican and Democratic parties before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There has been a vice presidential debate in every US presidential election since 1984. For past debate schedules, see: 2020, 2016, 2012, 2008, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, 1980 - debate was cancelled, 1976, 1960 - no VP debate.
Will there be a vice presidential debate before the 2024 US presidential election?
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-01-24T13:45:53
|
2024-10-01T20:18:31
|
2024-10-01T20:18:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8dQsbW1p3Gqjxs3lTsXf
|
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other three times before the 2024 US presidential election?
|
This question resolves YES if there are at least three live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been plans for three presidential debates in every US presidential election since 2000, including 2020 despite only two occurring due to one's cancellation.
For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 total
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be three debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden before the 2024 US presidential election?
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-01-24T13:35:25
|
2024-11-06T08:33:08
|
2024-11-06T08:33:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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