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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-WqsaCWJuwdfTDzyvtAJj
|
Will Trump say "Genocide Joe" before election day?
|
The insulting nickname "Genocide Joe" (referring to Joe Biden's support for Israel) has gained popularity among left-wing activists.
This market will resolve to YES if Donald Trump says or writes the phrase "Genocide Joe" publicly before November 5th. He does not have to use it to insult Biden; commenting on it in any way will count.
|
2024-01-24T13:20:35
|
2024-11-05T16:48:38
|
2024-11-05T16:48:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ry9TDVWpP01WVVbCmk03
|
Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's (1st) debate on Lex Fridman's channel get 10M views before 2025
|
Resolves YES immediately if the SHAPIRO vs DESTINY video reaches 10M views before EOY according to Youtube. Post proof.
Resolves NO on Jan. 1st if the video has not reached 10M. Also resolves NO if the video does not exist anymore and proof of it hitting 10M has not been posted previously.
|
2024-01-24T11:25:03
|
2024-07-22T14:07:20
|
2024-07-22T14:07:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SXWVwzWxYieKR1RkeTDp
|
Will Justice Clarence Thomas ask a question during the oral arguments for Trump v. Anderson (Colorado ballot case)?
|
*Updated criteria to resolve primarily based on court transcripts rather than media sources.
Supreme Court Associate Justice Clarence Thomas is famously untalkative during oral arguments, and once went a decade without asking a single question.
If Justice Thomas asks any question during oral arguments for Trump v. Anderson then the market resolves YES. (A question about the weather or the Super Bowl resolve the market YES.) Only making comments, observations, statements, or jokes will resolve NO. If Justice Thomas doesn't speak at all, the market resolves NO.
This market specifically refers to TRUMP, DONALD J. V. ANDERSON, NORMA, ET AL.
The market closes at midnight ET on Thursday, February 8, 2024. If oral arguments are moved, then the market close date will change in an attempt to close at midnight ET on the day of.
Court transcripts and audio will be used to resolve the question. If there is any uncertainty, media sources, including but not limited to The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and the AP will be used. In the highly unlikely scenario that it is unclear whether Justice Thomas asked a question, then the market creator will resolve using best judgement.
The market creator will not bet in this market.
For background:
Clarence Thomas Asks 1st Question From Supreme Court Bench In 10 Years
Justice Clarence Thomas, Long Silent, Has Turned Talkative
Thomas Keeps Asking Questions as Justices Return to Courtroom (1)
|
2024-01-24T10:07:56
|
2024-02-08T12:14:19
|
2024-02-08T12:14:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-65Qf7USZRo8IlG0qaJOI
|
Will there be more deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon in 2024 than in 2023?
|
I will use data from Imazon https://imazon.org.br/ to resolve this market.
|
2024-01-24T08:35:32
|
2025-01-28T19:26:26
|
2025-01-28T19:26:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fZXeR0vcUqmVYlri52Zr
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary?
|
Resolves YES if Nikki Haley announces that she is dropping out/suspending her presidential campaign before voting starts (7 AM ET) in the South Carolina Republican Presidential primary. Otherwise NO.
The 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary is scheduled to be held on February 24, 2024.
|
2024-01-24T08:34:54
|
2024-02-24T09:10:44
|
2024-02-24T09:10:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WQFmwAu5h9jSbA3tHF6o
|
Will Twitter release p2p payments in ANY jurisdiction by EOY 2024?
|
This concerns payments in Fiat currency, not crypto.
Related:
https://manifold.markets/GabeGarboden/will-twitter-x-launch-peer-to-peer (stipulates all 50 states)
https://manifold.markets/aashiq/when-will-twitter-get-money-transmi
|
2024-01-24T08:33:23
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T01:55:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-npPpnDHKQiZQmBx6L8XI
|
Will Destiny reach 768k subscribers in Feb 2024?
|
Resolves according to numbers reported on his socialblade page
relevant market:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-768k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-773k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-774k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-775k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-780k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-782k-subscribers
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-785k-subscribers
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/will-destiny-reach-770k-subscribers)
|
2024-01-24T06:11:01
|
2024-02-12T15:34:58
|
2024-02-12T15:34:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5U7QHkivM9I2BMeF8LAN
|
Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, a Hamas leader, by September 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-24T05:38:33
|
2024-09-01T20:59:00
|
2024-09-02T04:31:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6pxaT8Te1ZLmLwtl09eE
|
Will a criminal case be initiated against Boris Nadezhdin before the end of 2024?
|
Boris Nadezhdin is a Russian opposition politician who aspires to run for president in March's presidential election.
The question resolves YES if the criminal case is initiated against him in Russia before the end of 2024.
Author betting policy.
I will bet on this market for calibration purposes.
|
2024-01-24T00:52:32
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:11:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SnKHGBHgcvFeIm2lFlUb
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 24, 2024?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-01-24T00:28:07
|
2024-01-25T09:16:55
|
2024-01-25T09:16:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NRc8swiHnmQbW98MjIqN
|
Will anyone besides Trump get more than 1% of the vote in the Nevada caucus?
|
Resolves YES if any single candidate not named Donald Trump exceeds 1% of the total vote in the Nevada GOP caucus.
Note that due to some shenanigans, Nikki Haley won't be a part of the caucus.
|
2024-01-23T22:39:09
|
2024-02-10T21:59:00
|
2024-02-11T21:47:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1RGTOT2XIY8tMeQX3l0x
|
Will the largest Llama 3 have> 500B TOTAL parameters?
|
For MoE, it is much harder to determine the total parameters than active parameters. bet with caution
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Sss19971997/will-the-largest-llama-3-has-100b-a)
|
2024-01-23T20:24:32
|
2024-09-05T03:49:01
|
2024-09-05T03:49:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ApqKWePXcMlKKykn76F
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy be candidate VP on the Trump ticket in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-23T20:18:48
|
2024-07-15T18:41:47
|
2024-07-15T18:41:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SWDx83791eayAcPRhvLs
|
Will Joe Biden do better than he did in 2020?
|
In 2020, Joe Biden got 306 electoral college votes. In 2024, will he do better?
Resolves YES if:
Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee and earns 307 or more electoral college votes.
Resolves NO if:
Joe Biden is not the Democratic nominee.
Joe Biden earns 306 or fewer electoral college votes.
You can also bet on the Trump version
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-donald-trump-do-better-than-he)
|
2024-01-23T20:18:08
|
2024-08-25T19:10:34
|
2024-08-25T19:10:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6aM80YCKFUctarCHfumV
|
Will the Doomsday Clock be set to 80 seconds to midnight on the 2025 update?
|
YES if it becomes exactly 80 seconds, otherwise NO.
|
2024-01-23T20:05:17
|
2025-01-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:05:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7glJhn5QRjSxmQbetTzq
|
Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's debate gain 4M views within a week?
|
Resolves Yes if YouTube shows that Lex Fridman's video of the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro has 4 million or more views before YouTube shows the video as being 7 days old.
Resolves No if the video does not reach 4 million views before the video is 7 days old.
|
2024-01-23T19:25:09
|
2024-01-27T10:33:19
|
2024-01-27T10:33:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-21LPJKf1bBYXUTvCkUHf
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before the Michigan Primary? (February 27)
|
Resolves YES if Nikki Haley drops out before February 27, the date of the Michigan Republican Primary.
|
2024-01-23T19:13:26
|
2024-02-26T21:59:00
|
2024-02-27T05:06:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wYMpmkhaEvSq6DFzuLmX
|
Will the S&P500 increase MoM in Mar, 2024.
|
Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-01-23T18:54:43
|
2024-03-28T15:42:17
|
2024-03-28T15:42:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8YQgZIQ520ySgOo8yUzQ
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 27?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-23T16:38:10
|
2024-01-28T12:32:57
|
2024-01-28T12:32:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7D6uW73yYlR7it5GYClB
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 26?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-23T16:37:20
|
2024-01-26T23:08:49
|
2024-01-26T23:08:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dLCvNsdC4XYm8MXyG1oY
|
Will MrBeast Release a Mobile game/App by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-23T16:07:57
|
2024-12-31T05:29:00
|
2024-12-31T05:59:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FsDhALtzjV2dr0okW88p
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 25?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-23T15:02:27
|
2024-01-26T20:59:00
|
2024-01-26T22:16:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qpaQX5MejWvbgSJXeTgl
|
Will Patrick Mahomes keep his clean sheet playoff record against the Baltimore Ravens?
|
He's the only QB in NFL playoff history without a turnover or sack in three straight playoff games. It would be incredible if he produced another clean sheet vs. Baltimore's defense.
[image]Do you think he can extend that record or will he go down in flames? Resolves NO if either he gets sacked or he has a turnover.
|
2024-01-23T13:21:13
|
2024-01-28T14:35:33
|
2024-01-28T14:35:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y3A0iqVKOmYUhpF4AOHJ
|
Will the House vote on removing Mike Johnson as Speaker as a result of his proposed budget deal?
|
The reporting on Mike Johnson's impending budget deal (likely to land after another brief continuing resolution) suggests he's going to end up with a fairly similar deal to what his ousted predecessor had proposed. While he does intend for it to be passed via something vaguely resembling normal order (i.e. as a set of appropriations bills rather than a last-minute omnibus) there's some question as to whether that will satisfy the same cadre of republicans who yanked McCarthy.
This question will resolve YES if a motion to vacate is voted on (regardless of outcome) AND it seems to be substantively due to the circumstances of the budget deal he is negotiating (in my sole opinion). It resolves NO if no vote happens by market close, or if the effort to remove him is not (in my opinion) primarily due to his handling of the budget. If he dies or is removed from Congress before market close, this will resolve N/A (please pay attention to that detail).
I'll add any clarifications needed in the comments, and if something seems important enough I will edit the description to make it more apparent. I will not bet on this market.
|
2024-01-23T13:18:52
|
2024-08-28T20:59:00
|
2024-08-29T16:12:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-grZmDgE8KVkPN4IKvB8z
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out before the South Carolina primary (Feb 24)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-23T12:33:38
|
2024-02-22T20:59:00
|
2024-02-25T14:24:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VrVsvFC2742U8Xly8ced
|
Will North Korea have an open military conflict with South Korea that results in at least 1 death before Sept 1st?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-23T11:52:59
|
2024-08-31T14:52:28
|
2024-08-31T14:52:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OyPfcmlyLbKZPXVPfUtW
|
Will the 2024 election be extremely close? (Within eight electoral votes of a tie)
|
One such possible map, in which dems just barely win:
[image]If the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election has 277 or fewer electoral votes, this question resolves yes.
In a typical election with only two candidates winning EVs, this means the outcome is within eight electoral votes(inclusive) of a 269-269 tie. For example if you take the above map and you flip Nevada to blue you get 276-262, or if you flip New Hampshire to red you get 266-272. Either of those would count.
If any candidate gets 278 or more electoral votes, this market resolves No.
Resolution will be based on a consensus of credible reporting of which candidate won each state, after any relevant recounts. Resolution does not count any shenanigans in the election certification process or potential insurrections.
|
2024-01-23T08:02:24
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:40:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HTDBEhCZY257vtL1PJJZ
|
Will there be any blowout wins in the AFC/NFC Championship games this weekend?
|
Will Chiefs - Ravens and/or Lions - 49ers games be decided by 17 points or more?
|
2024-01-23T07:53:32
|
2024-01-28T19:04:39
|
2024-01-28T19:04:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CGZZ2r2YkzVShYpCGXxg
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 23, 2024?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-01-23T00:12:18
|
2024-01-24T00:26:35
|
2024-01-24T00:26:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oqWdTVCZne8QspAyAj7E
|
Will Trump announce his running mate before the end of the Ides of March? (March 15)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-22T22:43:34
|
2024-03-15T20:59:00
|
2024-03-15T21:08:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U038SIYYXFZYTHoLL5EG
|
Is there a "secret gigawatt-class GPU cluster being constructed in Kuwait"? [Elon claim]
|
Elon Musk claimed as much during an interview with Peter Diamandis.
Resolves YES either if there is a "gigawatt-class GPU cluster" in Kuwait as of Jan 22, 2024 or if construction begins on such a project at any point in 2024.
|
2024-01-22T21:38:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:05:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bEfFtSPyczdys1I3UDE8
|
Will anyone mention slapping at the 2024 Oscars?
|
Can mention it, make a joke or talk about slapping/the slap. Verbal or physical during main official live broadcast. Real or fake/joke slaps will count.
|
2024-01-22T20:42:40
|
2024-03-10T19:57:22
|
2024-03-10T19:57:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EoZ263JmxiKBKDDeBLFB
|
Will Justin Trudeau cease being PM before Joe Biden ceases being President?
|
Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Resolution Criteria:
Justin Trudeau will cease being PM if an interim leader is appointed.
The likely outcome is a leadership race resulting in Trudeau's departure as PM around March or April.
|
2024-01-22T19:49:49
|
2025-02-19T10:43:10
|
2025-02-19T10:43:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-frVIPGtkcitU8xT42PnX
|
Will Sam Altman be involved in the creation of a new semiconductor company in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if it's confirmed that Sam Altman is directly involved in the creation of a semiconductor company founded this year. Can be fab or fabless. Sam must have direct involvement, not just an investor.
|
2024-01-22T19:40:01
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-09T12:34:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ztCAiWuTBequx03McU4x
|
Will Twitter / X launch peer to peer payments by EOY 2024
|
Will Twitter / X launch peer to peer payments by the end of 2024? Resolves Yes if it's available in all 50 states, and allows for transfers to/from any state.
Subscription requirement is okay, just has to be available to the general public.
|
2024-01-22T19:16:11
|
2025-01-01T23:30:07
|
2025-01-01T23:30:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MVGGArbfE6xnu6Ru6xDG
|
Will Biden (write in) win at least 60% of the vote in the NH Democratic primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-22T19:15:45
|
2024-01-25T08:26:04
|
2024-01-25T08:26:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g3g4aUv1dNGuCtPWKtW8
|
Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that lasts a month or longer and starts before July 2024?
|
Scoop: Israel proposes 2-month fighting pause in Gaza for release of all hostages
Interpretation will be similar to this market
|
2024-01-22T15:53:30
|
2024-06-30T23:59:00
|
2024-07-01T22:36:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k9fcu5eVJxiKxv5uBn6x
|
Will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war that lasts a month or longer and starts before April 2024?
|
Scoop: Israel proposes 2-month fighting pause in Gaza for release of all hostages
Interpretation will be similar to this market
|
2024-01-22T15:51:23
|
2024-03-31T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T00:14:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8605ZaEDPDeYsGdfg2SJ
|
Will the current Israel-Palestine conflict end in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a peace treaty is signed or Israel pulls out of Palestine.
|
2024-01-22T14:33:37
|
2024-12-31T16:49:42
|
2024-12-31T16:49:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bQn2JXbExhMlbMpw3mKU
|
Will there be a major deepfake scandal in the 2024 US presidential campaign?
|
For the purpose of this "major deepfake scandal" is defined as a deepfake (1) created with the apparent aim of influencing the election, (2) that reaches at least 100k voters, (3) and is conclusively debunked, but which many people nonetheless believe, as reported by mainstream news media
|
2024-01-22T14:22:13
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-21T14:50:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Tfla0mxPfXifTqoKlHF
|
Will Ron DeSantis revert back to his previous height by EOY 2024?
|
When DeSantis began campaigning for President, he began wearing boots more often and suddenly grew in height. Previously reported to be 5'11", he was clearly taller than many of his 6' challengers in the debates. Many experts on shoes claim he was using height boosters at the time to appear taller, and outside of a single statement his campaign did little to respond to this accusation.
Ron DeSantis has now dropped out of the Presidential race. The question is: Will he drop the act and stop wearing the height boosters, or will he keep up the charade for the rest of the year?
|
2024-01-22T14:07:12
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:44:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VqpH4MSItecsOvIAdNEU
|
January 2024: Will Bitcoin close the month above $40,000?
|
If the close price of Bitcoin on January 31, 2024 via Coingecko is higher than $40,000 this market will resolve YES
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin/historical_data|
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2024-01-22T14:03:36
|
2024-02-01T02:19:05
|
2024-02-01T02:19:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W19wBMm86QIEv7aCFXKt
|
Will Jason Kelce have his shirt off at the Chiefs - Ravens playoff game?
|
Must be reported / shown by credible source in the hours before or during the game. Resolves NO if he is not at the game.
|
2024-01-22T13:34:18
|
2024-01-28T19:25:23
|
2024-01-28T19:25:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0U7Nt6yXZS2OYpjHcTdc
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 20% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of Valentine's Day? (Feb 14)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-22T13:29:38
|
2024-02-14T20:59:00
|
2024-02-14T21:39:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CTmSTurj7VbDtYR5guZm
|
Will Nikki Haley have at least 15% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page at the end of Groundhog Day? (Feb 2)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-22T13:28:05
|
2024-02-02T20:59:00
|
2024-02-03T08:19:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W2hx7pAt3ycAAPbxzPUK
|
Will M&T Bank Stadium set a new noise record during the Chiefs - Ravens playoff game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-22T12:53:23
|
2024-01-31T18:50:03
|
2024-01-31T18:50:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dxulXVckUOwczawWxh9w
|
Will David Lynch release another Weather Report in 2024?
|
David Lynch posted them on his channel until the end of 2022, but did not post any in 2023.
Link: https://www.youtube.com/@DAVIDLYNCHTHEATER/videos
|
2024-01-22T12:23:43
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T17:22:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qXd6eG4NyJmvfAFSBHJK
|
Will the Bitcoin price drop below $38,000 before the end of Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-22T12:01:51
|
2024-02-01T02:35:55
|
2024-02-01T02:35:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dyuLoZrBNBQZsiOrB4Yv
|
Will Trump win the popular vote with Biden winning the Electoral College? (limit on yes)
|
Resolves NO if the exact scenario in the title does not occur
|
2024-01-22T10:46:42
|
2024-09-03T20:41:00
|
2024-09-03T20:41:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JHAgROMgsbDtiuODKgqK
|
Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden debate each other twice before the 2024 US presidential election?
|
This question resolves YES if there are at least two live presidential debates (virtual or in-person) between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the end of 5 Nov 2024.
There have been at least two presidential debates in every US presidential election since 1976 (or 1984 if you exclude 1980, which featured two debates but one which lacked both main party candidates). For easy reference, here are the number of debates in each election cycle and a link to debate schedules on Wikipedia:
2020: 2
2016: 3
2012: 3
2008: 3
2004: 3
2000: 3
1996: 2
1992: 3
1988: 2
1984: 2
1980: 1 including both Carter and Reagan, 2 including at least one or the other
1976: 3
1960: 4
Will there be two debates between Donald Trump and Joe Biden before the 2024 US presidential election?
See also:
[markets]
|
2024-01-22T10:39:09
|
2024-11-06T19:44:02
|
2024-11-06T19:44:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nHGGDTdFhKY5wU0aIf4B
|
Will Taylor Swift be dancing at the Chiefs - Ravens playoff game?
|
Must be shown dancing on official NFL broadcast. Resolves NO if she is not at the game.
|
2024-01-22T10:32:22
|
2024-01-28T20:27:38
|
2024-01-28T20:27:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P69OD7ZSi72sWtLNz9u1
|
[Metaculus] Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?
|
Will the "Dune: Part Two" domestic opening box office be greater than that of "Dune (2021)"?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21081/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the domestic box office weekend opening of Dune: Part Two as reported by its page on Boxofficemojo is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the Dune (2021). If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as No.
The box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-22T10:11:38
|
2024-03-05T15:43:51
|
2024-03-05T15:43:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zJLdLKDE5n3sikFQ9huR
|
Will Deebo Samuel play in the 49ers - Lions game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-22T09:22:39
|
2024-01-28T15:50:10
|
2024-01-28T15:50:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jbOLZMJEyTj4Bh8CG1nQ
|
WEEKLY: Will the S&P 500 index (SP:SPX) close positive this week?
|
Resolves YES if the closing price of the weekly candle of the SPX is greater than the open price. (4853.42)
I will use Tradingview (**https://www.tradingview.com/**) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the week.
|
2024-01-22T07:50:46
|
2024-01-26T18:54:23
|
2024-01-26T18:56:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lepMucBRZRAU8LXHPTyb
|
Will the US strike Iranian forces directly in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the US conducts an airstrike or other direct military action in Iran or against Iranian forces, not proxies. Also, doesn’t count clandestine unconfirmed operations. Must be public, reported on.
|
2024-01-22T06:53:29
|
2024-02-02T14:27:38
|
2024-02-02T14:27:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B8w5IMWdHfuTsmCcHQwA
|
Will a seventh game reach 1M concurrent Steam players by EOY 2024?
|
Palworld recently became the 6th game to reach 1M concurrent players on Steam. The six currently are:
Palworld, Elden Ring, Baldur's Gate 3, PUBG, Counter Strike 2, Dota 2
Link: https://www.eurogamer.net/palworld-is-now-one-of-just-six-games-to-ever-hit-more-than-1m-concurrent-players-on-steam
|
2024-01-22T06:39:31
|
2024-08-20T07:38:37
|
2024-08-20T07:38:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PKHM4KrWrAtzZVpJWPbt
|
Will Damar Hamlin win Comeback Player of the Year
|
Damar came back from a cardiac arrest on the field. He barely has any playing time, but the fact that he survived is surprising.
|
2024-01-22T06:08:32
|
2024-02-08T20:59:00
|
2024-02-09T10:33:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J0T2rc8YCJDyJtJ9Jgyh
|
Will Destiny play a game on stream before February 15th? (excluding browser games)
|
Destiny has barely played any games on stream since he's been on those ADHD meds. Resolves yes if he spends at least 15 minutes on any single game before this market closes, as long as that game is not played in a browser.
|
2024-01-22T04:31:34
|
2024-02-15T10:15:18
|
2024-02-15T10:15:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ldTTKYxIhQiiXTBeBxO2
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 24?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-22T01:03:14
|
2024-01-25T01:18:00
|
2024-01-25T01:18:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7h24smrseOe6bf8M6GgC
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Sep 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by September 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8
|
2024-01-22T01:03:07
|
2024-09-01T02:01:06
|
2024-09-01T02:01:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LAZCwMsQwcF1kw9uzlH0
|
Will the Detroit Lions win the Super Bowl?
|
2023-2024 season
|
2024-01-21T21:00:25
|
2024-01-28T18:52:43
|
2024-01-28T18:52:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i03b3SfLRFv1MWJEVhev
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Kansas City Chiefs by more than 3.5 points in the AFC Championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T18:45:15
|
2024-01-28T17:57:59
|
2024-01-28T17:57:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B9r1yHjzjE3XJ6jAlvzF
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers beat the Detroit Lions by more than 6.5 points in the NFC Championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T18:44:29
|
2024-01-28T19:07:19
|
2024-01-28T19:07:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-19gAHuWPKWjMK8OZiLHE
|
Will Joe Biden win the Democratic New Hampshire primary as a write-in candidate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T18:26:24
|
2024-01-24T21:59:00
|
2024-01-25T01:52:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RXeuDXl7SKsRPPMkXa3Q
|
Will Kier Starmer still be leader of the Labour Party (UK) on 1st January 2025?
|
This market resolves to “Yes” if Starmer is still leader of the Labour Party on January 1st 2025, and “No” otherwise. Note that he must still be leader for this market’s purpose, so if he is ousted before then the market resolves to “No” at that time even if he is somehow re-chosen as leader before January 1st 2025.
|
2024-01-21T17:45:14
|
2024-12-31T15:24:52
|
2024-12-31T15:24:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ix3pgpKtv6596DIhXbwg
|
Will Nintendo legally go after Palworld in some way before EOY 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T17:26:20
|
2024-09-18T17:08:23
|
2024-09-18T17:08:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S5GldX4joaTk9PSc5Ta6
|
NFL Conf: Will San Francisco 49ers win against Detriot Lions by more than 6.5 points [Jan 28th]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T16:06:09
|
2024-01-28T18:46:01
|
2024-01-28T18:46:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7S4L9dIR13nl5mL6PBcW
|
Will Trump announce his VP by the 15th of February 2024?
|
Will resolve as YES if Donald Trump announces his VP by 15th of February 2024
|
2024-01-21T15:57:26
|
2024-02-16T23:59:00
|
2024-02-17T07:03:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ShPlHCZTU8yuP7YyNuLB
|
Will Palworld be dead in 2 weeks?
|
At market close, I will check steam live charts, ordered by current players. If Palworld is in rank 10 or better, resolves NO. Otherwise, resolves YES.
|
2024-01-21T15:45:48
|
2024-02-04T21:59:00
|
2024-02-04T22:06:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iI8j5AHygn2ud8C55143
|
Will Nikki Haley still be in the GOP presidential race at the end of this week?
|
Resolves YES if Nikki Haley is still running for the GOP nomination for president at the end of Jan. 27.
|
2024-01-21T15:35:25
|
2024-01-27T21:59:00
|
2024-01-27T22:38:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7btoGSnqpndeozS3NoXd
|
Will Jimmy Carter die on an odd day during 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a day ending with 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 during 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a day ending with 1, 3, 5, 7, 9 during 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2024-01-21T12:09:45
|
2024-12-29T16:29:43
|
2024-12-29T16:29:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZaYkZvRRTxTes3UphvGz
|
Will Jimmy Carter die on an even day during 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a day ending with 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 during 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a day ending with 0, 2, 4, 6, 8 during 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2024-01-21T12:08:00
|
2024-12-29T16:30:39
|
2024-12-29T16:30:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-psrBPNKF2OfbGNHS1NGB
|
NH PRIMARY: Will DeSantis get 8% or greater of the vote?
|
YES: Ron DeSantis receives 8% or more of the vote in New Hampshire Primary.
NO: Ron DeSantis receives less than 8% of the vote.
|
2024-01-21T10:05:06
|
2024-01-23T20:59:00
|
2024-01-23T22:54:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x9pX2iwTruMtS7mlZPGx
|
Will the doomsday clock be closer to midnight than 2023?
|
NO reason: not closer to midnight and not further than midnight which is not closer to midnight "It is still 90 seconds to midnight
2024 Doomsday Clock Statement" ~ https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
"The Doomsday Clock is a design that warns the public about how close we are to destroying our world with dangerous technologies of our own making. It is a metaphor, a reminder of the perils we must address if we are to survive on the planet.
Each year, the Clock is set by the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board, a group of internationally recognized experts on nuclear risk, climate change, disruptive technologies, and biosecurity.
Right now, the Clock is the closest it has ever been at 90 seconds to midnight." ~ https://thebulletin.org/2024/01/bill-nye-joins-the-2024-doomsday-clock-announcement/?utm_source=Website&utm_medium=Banner&utm_campaign=FullSiteBanner&utm_content=DoomsdayClock_SiteBanner_01092023
If the clock gets closer to midnight than 2023 will resolve to yes
|
2024-01-21T09:42:00
|
2024-01-23T10:13:55
|
2024-01-23T10:14:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EmkjuOcSbZV80K5FBtSd
|
Will Llama 3 (405B) be released before Oct 2024?
|
Resolves to yes if LLama 3 is released before October 1st 2024.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct (this question)
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov
Other questions for Oct 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-oct
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct (this question)
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-bfee3a7c01f9
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Llama 3 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Llama 3) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on Meta's premium offer (if one exists for these models) that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-21T05:37:26
|
2024-07-24T10:16:58
|
2024-07-24T10:16:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mNvS2QczNn0VCkB7rh65
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Oct 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by October 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8
|
2024-01-21T05:30:18
|
2024-10-06T01:19:13
|
2024-10-06T01:19:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3lF8NW6wdDAqHCMBpn2N
|
Will Israel and Hamas enter a cease-fire before March 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-21T05:22:10
|
2024-03-01T21:59:00
|
2024-03-02T11:05:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3MzMBR4KQaHgTxwNTqAy
|
February 2024: Will Bitcoin hit $50,000?
|
If in February 2024 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $50,000 or more, this will resolve YES.
In the case of uncertainty, the 7-day high price will be used.
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2024-01-21T04:15:33
|
2024-02-12T22:01:07
|
2024-02-12T22:01:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1pV5FwMekeX07jgEydYa
|
Will OpenAI / Sam Altman fund the construction of new semiconductor fabs this year?
|
Bloomberg recently reported that Sam Altman is attempting to raise $8-10B from SoftBank or the UAE to build new semiconductor fabs in partnership with TSMC, Intel, and/or Samsung, to make sure they secure their chip supply in the face of AI driven semiconductor demand
https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altman-seeks-raise-billions-network-ai-chip-factories-bloomberg-news-2024-01-19/
Will this actually happen? The funding has to happen this year, not the fab construction
|
2024-01-21T00:29:17
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:16:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZplvBKMdWJgiA5c4xDma
|
Will Green Bay cut Anders Carlson before next season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T20:55:08
|
2024-08-27T12:24:22
|
2024-08-27T12:24:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bKScUd302gej9HOaCGnt
|
NFL NFC Championship: will the #1 San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the #2 Detroit Lions in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T20:25:12
|
2024-01-28T18:53:48
|
2024-01-28T18:53:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZNOG00Vq18bxbzGJk6FS
|
Will Netanyahu be out of office by year end 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T20:02:12
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T17:42:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KXhulP4wMP6a5mtI1ezW
|
Will the California Forever ballot initiative pass?
|
https://downloads.ctfassets.net/ivxuf0dn6dhw/7HRDCpGCxsRHFXTv0ZxDVZ/ed92f55f60f182530fab988d382da028/East_Solano_Homes_Jobs_and_Clean_Energy_Initiative_-_Submitted_to_Solano_ROV.pdf
|
2024-01-20T18:34:54
|
2024-08-14T13:33:32
|
2024-08-14T13:33:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4G6Dargap5RONZ8bvlWp
|
Will Apple have on-device TTS that is indistinguishable from a human narrator before 2025?
|
Resolves positively if Apple integrates on-device TTS before 2025 on Mac, iPhone or iPad that, in a blind test conducted by a panel of at least 4 people of my choosing, cannot be reliably distinguished from a human narrator.
The market may resolve negatively without consulting a panel if the outcome of the blind test is obvious.
Related markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-have-ondevice-tts-that-i-1b03acd62121)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Predict/will-apple-have-ondevice-tts-that-i-cc2299a0a0eb)
|
2024-01-20T18:34:03
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:33:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m8N0Df0iXhL4hcwjkNvg
|
Will another car land on the roof of a building in Maryland in the next two weeks?
|
example of such incident in past : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FhBlXDZ-S30
|
2024-01-20T17:31:25
|
2024-02-03T20:59:00
|
2024-02-05T14:21:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i4erex05qpd5COdlVyxv
|
Will Republican nominee for vice president be announced before the end of July 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T16:57:41
|
2024-07-16T08:22:36
|
2024-07-16T08:22:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sQcPIQjd7dwGcbLgmZnO
|
NFL AFC Championship Game: will the #1 Baltimore Ravens (home) beat the #3 Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T16:43:38
|
2024-01-28T15:14:54
|
2024-01-28T15:14:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AUAlQBKEdS0B907vTfbM
|
Will Nikki Haley get more than 39% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T13:47:37
|
2024-01-24T09:40:24
|
2024-01-24T09:40:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HZKMaJjdA65gqzBs9qxm
|
Will Nikki Haley get more than 37% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T13:47:03
|
2024-01-23T21:45:44
|
2024-01-23T21:45:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-siYZzgZiboB5OTBvHC1n
|
Will Trump's VP pick be a white male?
|
Resolves YES if Trump picks white male as his choice for vice president.
"White" means at least 3/4 biological grandparents are of European or Middle Eastern descent. "Male" means they identify as a male (i.e. Caitlyn Jenner wouldn't count).
Resolves NO if Trump picks a non-white or non-male person for VP.
Resolves N/A if Trump is not a presidential nominee or is for some reason unable to pick a nominee (e.g. stroke). Also resolves N/A if Trump changes his official VP pick before I can resolve the market (e.g. death of VP pick).
|
2024-01-20T12:57:37
|
2024-07-15T21:01:47
|
2024-07-15T21:01:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5jCBSTKklsOQqId0Vlxb
|
Will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire be the lowest grossing of the franchise? 👻🥼🔫
|
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire (2024) comes out on March 22nd, 2024. Going off the worldwide box office numbers from TheNumbers (included below), will Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire make less than $203.6M, continuing the downward trend?
Ghostbusters Worldwide Grosses:
Ghostbusters (1984): $295.5M
Ghostbusters II (1989): $215.5M
Ghostbusters (2016): $229.0M
Ghostbusters: Afterlife (2021): $203.6M
|
2024-01-20T11:12:16
|
2024-06-17T23:59:00
|
2024-06-20T06:39:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r14fIELGk7Ibdbz9txdE
|
Will Llama 3 (405B) be released before Nov 2024?
|
Resolves to yes if LLama 3 is released before November 1st 2024.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov (this question)
Other questions for Nov 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-nov
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov (this question)
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, Llama 3 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of Llama 3) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on Meta's premium offer (if one exists for these models) that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-20T09:54:15
|
2024-07-24T10:16:05
|
2024-07-24T10:16:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DaV0m6SVc1mkaeZhHjNX
|
Will Iran detonate a nuclear weapon before Nov 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Iran has detonated a nuclear device by November 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-b6e20bc9f777
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4751ee3f64a2
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-54454f6bc6fa
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-4e38fffdb730
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9de92c362204
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-ff7d7ad0446e
@/RemNi/will-iran-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-9ed8a22b73a8 (this question)
|
2024-01-20T09:41:09
|
2024-11-02T12:41:34
|
2024-11-02T12:41:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jv4aRZfDgQ4dmeyx192M
|
Will Rabbit R1 sell 100,000 units by May 2024?
|
The Rabbit R1 is a new thin-client inference device based on a proprietary technology called the Large Action Model (LAM). https://www.rabbit.tech/
Based on tweets, so far they have achieved ~50,000 units since introduction at CES in January 2024.
[tweet]
|
2024-01-20T07:30:44
|
2024-03-23T05:37:55
|
2024-03-23T05:37:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Nd6FyhSIxzNQVGqNnENB
|
2024 Presidential Election: Will GOP win popular vote by 2%+ over Dems?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T07:18:48
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hpjRh13OvSnuMoZG6eUi
|
Will the Democratic candidate's popular vote exceed Republican candidate's popular vote in 2024 Presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T07:15:37
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p19mpUCi7suXjKNnoHJg
|
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 68% or larger?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T07:12:32
|
2024-12-26T20:59:00
|
2024-12-26T22:25:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WiigKGfrVzXdjjBw6mY7
|
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 66% or larger?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T07:12:26
|
2024-12-16T19:23:17
|
2024-12-16T19:23:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ni7c57oBRaPwTxZrAKeN
|
Will the voter turnout in the 2024 Presidential election be 62% or larger?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-20T07:11:24
|
2024-12-26T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TehN0mKeVpLWQa4220Qz
|
Israel:Hamas ceasefire in February? 🇮🇱🤝🇵🇸
|
At any point in the month of February will there be a cease in the fighting between Israel and Hamas?
Things which will cause this market to Resolve YES:
Israel and Hamas work out of a mutual cessation in fighting which lasts for at least 24hrs
Israel and Hamas end their war
Otherwise, this market will Resolve NO at the end of February 29th, 2024.
|
2024-01-20T06:44:23
|
2024-02-29T23:59:00
|
2024-03-01T04:39:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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