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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-26nRwBszbgo83EVGz4Jn
|
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2024?
|
[image]Will he ever visit Russia or Ukraine?
[markets]
|
2024-01-20T05:43:56
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-07T06:49:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vUjZlIWaVOwCHyDEsVlR
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before April 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Apr 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-apr-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-20T04:56:51
|
2024-04-01T02:36:40
|
2024-04-01T02:36:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fu6lfcARqNUl4F2fU1Iu
|
Will one of the Millenium Prize problems be solved by 2025?
|
They are: the Birch and Swinnington-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, the Navier-Stokes Equation, P vs NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills & the Mass Gap.
|
2024-01-19T20:06:37
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:11:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N8BKbI6FNlCZ79caevz5
|
Will Nick Fuentes get a girlfriend in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if he says he did or if he’s public photos emerge heavily indicating that he did.
For context, Nick is 25 years old and has never been in a relationship.
|
2024-01-19T19:41:30
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:02:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY
|
Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day?
|
Must be for something he hasn’t publicly apologized for in the past. Doesn’t include sarcastic apologies.
Edit: To clarify, public apologies only. Reports of private apologies don’t count unless trump publicly confirms that he made them.
Edit 2: An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had personal control over.
I’m sorry for the families who died on 9/11 = not an apology
I’m sorry that this arena (picked for a rally) flooded = an apology
|
2024-01-19T19:29:18
|
2024-11-05T15:29:38
|
2024-11-05T15:29:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tx1A7Z21nmbaQ6SMayjG
|
Will JetBlue or Spirit terminate their merger by February 29?
|
Resolves "YES" if either company issues a press release by February 29, 2024 at 11:59pm ET stating that they have terminated the merger agreement, even if the other company disagrees.
|
2024-01-19T18:04:05
|
2024-02-29T21:59:00
|
2024-03-01T02:31:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jUjkNJIijIFmvOLDrUxI
|
Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by March AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer?
|
Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by March and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/clip/UgkxSnl8J96XUzY43RZ8WxTcJVBoEknjqji9?si=yQUOdCUXq3XoK622
Therefore the resolution options are:
Will resolve Yes if they reach true orbit and demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they reach true orbit and fail to demonstrate propellant transfer
Will resolve No if they fail to reach true orbit and succeed in demonstrating propellant transfer
Navigation:
Market ending February
[YOU ARE HERE]
Market ending April
Market ending May
Market ending June
Market ending July
Market ending August
Market ending September
Market ending October
Market ending November
Market ending December
|
2024-01-19T16:28:14
|
2024-03-14T13:46:39
|
2024-03-14T13:46:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YOBYtGm12Jg7KSrCBXN5
|
Will Google DeepMind researchers leave to form a new startup named 'Holistic', in 2024?
|
Context
[image]Tweet link
Bloomberg link
Resolution Criteria
A better framing of the question would go like : "Will any researchers currently employed by Google DeepMind as of January 1, 2024, leave to form or join a new startup named 'Holistic' within the calendar year of 2024?"
Definitions
Researchers: Includes any individuals employed in a research capacity by Google DeepMind as of January 1, 2024.
Leaving: Refers to the official termination of their employment with Google DeepMind for any reason.
Formation/Joining of 'Holistic': Involves actively establishing a new startup named 'Holistic', or joining it if it's already formed, within 2024. This includes but is not limited to roles such as founders, co-founders, employees, or advisors.
Startup Named 'Holistic': The startup must be clearly named 'Holistic'. Similar names will not be considered unless they are legally registered variations of 'Holistic'.
Time Frame: The event must occur between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024.
Verification: Evidence such as public announcements, credible news reports, or official statements from Google DeepMind or the individuals involved will be required to confirm the event.
|
2024-01-19T15:12:17
|
2024-12-31T16:17:59
|
2024-12-31T16:17:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eUKuzPb348edj3EkmVhU
|
Will "Ceasefire" get more write-in votes than Biden, Phillips, or Williamson in the New Hampshire Democratic primary?
|
Resolves YES if in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, there are more votes cast for "ceasefire" than for any one of Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, or Marianne Williamson, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise NO. (To be clear, that means if "ceasefire" gets more votes than Williamson but fewer than Philips, for example, that's a YES.)
Resolves NO if there are no reliable media reports on the subject. Resolves N/A if it is unclear, and there are reliable media reports that state uncertainty about whether this criteria is satisfied.
Context: https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/18/politics/new-hampshire-biden-write-in-campaign/index.html
Biden did not register for the New Hampshire ballot following an internal party dispute over the date of the primary and the Democratic National Committee’s decision that the election effectively won’t count.
That’s left the state’s Democratic establishment trying to spread the word about an unofficial campaign to write in Biden’s name
there’s also a last-minute effort encouraging voters to write in “ceasefire” as a protest against Biden from the pro-Palestinian wing of the party.
|
2024-01-19T13:52:09
|
2024-01-26T08:54:47
|
2024-01-26T08:54:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SWnWJtwY54L7TYWta2aJ
|
Will Reddit IPO by end of March 2024?
|
According to Crunch base, Reddit has filed plans to IPO in March 2024. This question resolves yes if Reddit's IPO goes through and shares are available for trading in the public market.
https://news.crunchbase.com/public/reddit-moves-forward-with-march-ipo-plans-report-says?utm_source=cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20240119&utm_content=intro&utm_term=content&utm_source=cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=20230703
|
2024-01-19T13:46:57
|
2024-03-21T15:36:31
|
2024-03-21T15:36:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MPAhtwB1Sd4Pfpa5G0NS
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 23?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-19T12:16:33
|
2024-01-24T18:15:54
|
2024-01-24T18:15:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PVYhKFrOfgNPp5tsx2mh
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 22?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-19T12:15:57
|
2024-01-23T15:01:25
|
2024-01-23T15:01:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ycrJPDUwZ7HYmSyuQAk3
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 21?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD.
|
2024-01-19T12:15:10
|
2024-01-22T20:59:00
|
2024-01-23T14:29:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WpsfnFlY6rsPzBpRYYYd
|
Will a Steam game break the concurrent player record in 2024?
|
The concurrent player record for games on steam is currently thought to be PUBG with 3,257,248 players, according to SteamDB.
https://steamdb.info/charts/?category=0&sort=peak
If a game breaks this record in 2024, this question will resolve YES.
To clarify: NOT the steam record for users, but an individual game's concurrent players.
|
2024-01-19T11:47:51
|
2025-01-01T00:37:18
|
2025-01-01T00:37:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1DEGX7uMPYesVriwEbUR
|
Will China get more than 35 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T11:40:32
|
2024-08-11T19:29:05
|
2024-08-11T19:29:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OUGvQwSR3TIrZiGYNmoz
|
Will GPT-5 be released before May 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before May 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for May 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056(this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-may-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T11:33:48
|
2024-05-01T01:12:42
|
2024-05-01T01:12:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wlHiB76ZKgAnqrcmY4KN
|
Will USA get gold medal in Men's Basketball of 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T11:30:31
|
2024-08-10T18:45:57
|
2024-08-10T18:45:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m2KNTfjjO3zIbQPUunra
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before June 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20Other questions for Jun 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-june-2
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T11:09:21
|
2024-06-02T02:07:10
|
2024-06-02T02:07:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hkn8Lakzyr73wbMEup4K
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before July 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Jul 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-jul-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T11:03:22
|
2024-07-03T14:30:07
|
2024-07-03T14:30:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nQbtETrdAhLjhkhCxc1x
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Aug 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b (this question)
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-aug
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-aug-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:55:42
|
2024-08-06T14:59:00
|
2024-08-25T10:53:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ongYJhan7wKuO8HwPsFX
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before September 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Sep 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-sep
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-924b66b9430e
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-sep-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:50:00
|
2024-09-05T21:17:35
|
2024-09-05T21:17:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n8uIIoVJ8oTNImOlDJay
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before October 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Oct 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-oct
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-oct
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo-bfee3a7c01f9
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-oct-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:39:53
|
2024-10-06T01:22:47
|
2024-10-06T01:22:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KlunqEJ0gLhQnwjTyZR6
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Nov 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before November 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
Other questions for Nov 2024:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab (this question)
@/RemNi/will-dalle4-be-released-before-nov
@/RemNi/will-llama-3-be-released-before-nov
@/RemNi/will-midjourney-v7-be-released-befo
@/RemNi/will-sora-be-released-before-nov-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:35:16
|
2024-11-06T03:42:09
|
2024-11-06T03:42:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RDWu8WcOwoL5MdAr1Wmz
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before December 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:31:02
|
2024-12-04T15:22:59
|
2024-12-04T15:22:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hTv2KTNtVYNNYCjs8oS8
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before January 1st 2025
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:26:52
|
2025-01-06T14:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:23:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a7JV1NL0I2YeUBNn21OL
|
Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before February 1st 2025
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb584056
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20-da21ae1ffcdd
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20-09d441d0d15e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20-f155aef83a4b
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20-b4b9e56da814
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20-7426e1e5392e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20-de1a0d74aaab
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20-0a804511572e
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20-6e2ba03f7479
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-5a18f221c267 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jun-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jul-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-aug-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-sep-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-oct-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-nov-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-dec-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-jan-20
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20
In order to qualify as released in the context of this question, GPT-5 must either be accessible to any consumer willing to pay, or free to access for anyone, in at least 4 of the following countries: USA, UK, France, Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Germany, Italy before the specified date.
A release of the text component alone is sufficient to resolve this question as YES. However, a staged release (a release of a smaller model than the largest version of GPT-5) is not considered to be the "release" in the context of this question.
If access is restricted (e.g. due to resource availability limitations) at this question's end date, then this market resolves as YES only if the majority of existing paying accounts on OpenAI's premium offer that were subscribed a week prior to this end date can use the model. This must be true in at least 4 of the countries listed above. The anywhere on earth time zone is used for this question.
|
2024-01-19T10:22:55
|
2025-02-06T14:59:00
|
2025-03-01T08:13:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EuEiYIcxxsUlSdNFKd2d
|
Will AI automate GUIs by end of 2024?
|
Current AI agents (circa Jan 2024) are quite bad at clicking, reading screenshots, and interpreting the layout of webpages and GUIs. This is expected to change in the near future, with AI capable enough to navigate an arbitrary GUI about as well as a human.
Example of an early system of this type: https://github.com/OthersideAI/self-operating-computer/tree/main?tab=readme-ov-file#demo
Resolution criteria:
This question resolves YES if, the day after 2024 ends, I can direct an AI agent to resolve this market as YES using only voice commands while blindfolded. It resolves NO if this takes over 30 minutes.
Update:
There are no restrictions on whether the AI agent is free, open source, proprietary, local, remote, etcetera.
Update:
If someone else on Manifold can demonstrate an AI agent resolving a Manifold market as YES (while following the same restrictions that I would have followed), then I'll resolve this one as YES too. This is in case I'm not able to get access to the AI agent myself for testing.
Update:
The agent will need to be able to open a web browser and login to Manifold on its own.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Criteria:
The AI agent must not require modifying with custom code (e.g., writing scripts).
|
2024-01-19T10:07:11
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-04T14:15:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef
|
Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024?
|
With the SEC approving Spot Bitcoin ETFs recently, attention has turned to Ethereum as the next ETF opportunity. So will the SEC give approval to any financial firm to offer a spot ETH ETF by their deadline date?
JP Morgan says it is 50/50, what do you think?
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/19/no-more-than-50-chance-of-spot-ether-etf-approval-by-may-jpmorgan-says/
|
2024-01-19T09:32:26
|
2024-05-23T21:49:45
|
2024-05-25T10:52:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZgQGzwO0Ft09zELH0ESW
|
Will USA get more gold medals than China in 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T08:06:42
|
2024-08-11T06:48:25
|
2024-08-11T06:48:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS
|
At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic)
|
Will be going off of 'All 2024 Decks' in Standard format here: https://mtgtop8.com/topcards
NOT INCLUDING BASIC LANDS
|
2024-01-19T07:12:31
|
2024-12-31T10:53:17
|
2024-12-31T10:53:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-83G4ajdRSMrQXXJvhxkB
|
Will Mistral AI release a new open model before June 1st 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if any new open models are released by Mistral AI before June.
A new model appears on https://huggingface.co/mistralai or on https://mistral.ai/technology/#models in the "Open" tab and is available to download elsewhere.
|
2024-01-19T05:52:51
|
2024-04-13T11:18:13
|
2024-04-13T11:18:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hTWxFQwDJGS0tQtdxyGX
|
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
2024-01-19T05:45:20
|
2024-08-11T19:32:53
|
2024-08-11T19:32:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yRZ4LUFPmByZCjtDNtDP
|
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
2024-01-19T05:45:14
|
2024-08-11T19:32:59
|
2024-08-11T19:32:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qN2OMineotXwTLO33MIz
|
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
2024-01-19T05:45:05
|
2024-08-11T19:33:06
|
2024-08-11T19:33:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SYLi3UfraY8iBxxkSFok
|
Will USA get more than 50 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T05:43:47
|
2024-08-11T07:35:05
|
2024-08-11T07:35:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n9N5DXUv0ZRrXmbRtuWf
|
Will USA get more than 45 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T05:43:40
|
2024-08-11T07:35:13
|
2024-08-11T07:35:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZUjFyWsFvD6TXVVAI96S
|
Will USA get more than 40 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-19T05:43:34
|
2024-08-11T07:36:08
|
2024-08-11T07:36:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mjKauOxKNybWbf79RUpN
|
🍀 Will Apple have a product release event in March 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023
Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES.
|
2024-01-19T05:17:17
|
2024-03-31T14:42:12
|
2024-03-31T14:42:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W66cktybToiB5ah9XxDo
|
Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2024 than there were in 2019?
|
Based on Japan National Tourism Organisation statistics, which in turn are based on Ministry of Justice arrivals data.
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
These figures do not include arrivals in Japan of permanent residents of Japan or Japanese nationals.
The JNTO reported 31 882 049 visits to Japan for 2019.
If the JNTO reports that more than 31882049 people traveled to Japan in 2024, this question resolves to YES. If fewer people than that are reported to have visited Japan in 2024 once the numbers are finalized, this question resolves NO.
|
2024-01-19T04:48:56
|
2025-01-24T21:48:44
|
2025-01-24T21:48:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BgIitAvT8AjXEP7hEpAy
|
Will a video game integrating a GPT reach >100'000 concurrent players by the end of 2024?
|
The market will resolve YES if a video game that has a GPT as part of their game mechanics reaches more than 100'000 concurrent players by the end of 2024. The market will resolve NO otherwise.
|
2024-01-19T01:09:04
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-05T21:41:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w9jgAa254klUcufknfTP
|
Will thé NASDAQ reach an All time high by April 1st?
|
Will be resolved yes if the stock NASDAQ composite goes past it’s All Time High of 16057.44 (currently at about 15000 and climbing) by April 1st. Resolves No if it doesn’t.
|
2024-01-18T23:19:10
|
2024-03-04T21:29:06
|
2024-03-04T21:29:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m7yl50rPU1E6XPr3YotM
|
Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's debate gain 1M views within a week?
|
Resolves Yes if YouTube shows that Lex Fridman's video of the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro has 1 million or more views before YouTube shows the video as being 7 days old.
Resolves No if the video does not reach 1 million views before the video is 7 days old.
|
2024-01-18T21:01:11
|
2024-01-23T22:09:42
|
2024-01-23T22:09:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-o9GLRywVxsU1puz1o0Dp
|
Will China report more births in 2024 than in 2023?
|
[image]China reported 9.02 million births in 2023
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution is based on China's official reported birth numbers for 2024.
The market will resolve according to the figures reported by China without external verification.
|
2024-01-18T20:27:31
|
2025-01-16T22:36:51
|
2025-01-16T22:36:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vJYZg9jBceNlIKa53HLU
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 24, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 24, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:25:01
|
2024-04-24T20:59:49
|
2024-04-25T19:14:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TYqmd2mLW8Rje2cfp7Kp
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:24:39
|
2024-04-22T14:14:30
|
2024-04-22T14:14:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tfuy5H1DtScwEdCLRa24
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:24:17
|
2024-04-18T19:29:02
|
2024-04-18T19:29:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dcGvF4C4Am8LILLT6on4
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:23:55
|
2024-04-16T20:34:46
|
2024-04-16T20:34:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7xqifsZG6q40WXHx9jBf
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:22:46
|
2024-04-09T14:25:31
|
2024-04-09T14:25:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oBLjklD1Mol6buAuHAVB
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 05, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 05, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:22:17
|
2024-04-05T20:59:49
|
2024-04-05T21:07:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1CsfKSHEPf4WQZZxKdTL
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:22:05
|
2024-04-04T20:59:49
|
2024-04-05T05:57:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pxd9sd3lk0Xhq5lbVhP1
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 02, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 02, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-18T18:21:40
|
2024-04-02T17:21:57
|
2024-04-02T17:21:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XODWcCvoUrgvABmjAV7V
|
Will Donald Trump deny that he suffers from syphilis before the 2024 election?
|
This will resolve to "Yes" if Trump makes a public comment denying that he has syphilis before the 2024 US Presidential Election.
|
2024-01-18T16:53:01
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T15:08:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9oAcWWqAHN70BblYi3V5
|
Will the S&P500 increase MoM in Feb, 2024.
|
Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-01-18T15:49:20
|
2024-02-29T12:55:00
|
2024-02-29T13:20:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-10y8MEKmlM8R5Vz3SGl8
|
Will Bitcoin be below 40k by February 1st
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-18T15:36:04
|
2024-01-22T13:18:44
|
2024-01-22T13:18:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-97hY2PpPL5IVnVt2XVdN
|
Will Ron DeSantis finish another primary/caucus above 3rd place?
|
Ron DeSantis just finished in 2nd place in Iowa, but just barely (won by 2k votes or 2%). NH doesn’t look good for him (nearly 29 points behind 2nd), South Carolina doesn’t look much better (more than 12 point behind 2nd).
Will Ron DeSantis finish above 3rd place again in the 2024 Presidential Primaries/Caucuses? This Resolves NO the moment he drops out, despite likely remaining on some ballots.
|
2024-01-18T13:59:20
|
2024-01-21T15:01:57
|
2024-01-21T15:01:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VxAPVSjEtfF5fzVddpr0
|
Will Trump sweep Super Tuesday?
|
Please read this carefully because of the Colorado lawsuit.
Resolves YES if Donald Trump received the most votes all 15 Republican Presidential primaries on "Super Tuesday" March 5, 2024. These include Republican primaries in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia.
If something happens to cause a Super Tuesday state to move their primary date, then it will NOT be counted. If another states (or territory sending delegates to the 2024 RNC Convention) moves its nomination contest (primary, caucus, or other) to March 5, 2024, it will NOT be counted. If a Republican Super Tuesday state changes its method of selecting convention delegates away from a primary, then it will NOT be counted. If there is a hybrid delegate selection process, then only the primary votes will be used. If the state's primary is invalidated or cancelled, after ballots have been cast, it will not be used.
A state will NOT be part of the resolution criteria if Donald Trump's name is not on the primary ballot for any reason.
Resolves NO if Donald Trump fails to receive the most primary votes in every Super Tuesday state, or ties with another candidate for the most primary votes in at least one state.
The market will close at midnight ET on March 5, 2024.
The resolution will be based on vote totals provided by the respective Secretary of State (or Commonwealth) or its Board of Elections. These sources will be final regardless of any accusations or evidence of election fraud. If a state's website is down or vote totals unavailable, Politico will be used as a resolution source. If there is an issue that delays vote tabulation in any state, the market will wait to resolve until that is settled.
|
2024-01-18T12:20:14
|
2024-03-05T20:59:00
|
2024-03-06T07:23:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R2Zv6AVQd2zd5cOUAqyt
|
Will the Republican nominee for Vice President be a white man?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-18T12:00:21
|
2024-07-16T12:09:32
|
2024-07-16T12:09:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q6qfnpeyvj8YlE42FWIQ
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 AFC Championship
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-18T07:18:34
|
2024-01-28T15:13:56
|
2024-01-28T15:13:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sf2GsoBz2vwAMalT4r41
|
Will the Detroit Lions shred the San Francisco 49ers? 🏈 NFC Championship
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-18T07:17:34
|
2024-01-28T18:50:50
|
2024-01-28T18:50:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OevyfCveT8kQ8IR31hNA
|
At the end of 2024 will the most used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be used in 45% or more of decks?
|
Will be going off of 'All 2024 Decks' in Standard format here: https://mtgtop8.com/topcards
NOT INCLUDING BASIC LANDS
|
2024-01-18T07:03:00
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T18:48:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbKHmlJu5RmFvD5rzmgA
|
Will any player get injured participating in the 2024 Pro Bowl Games?
|
[image]
|
2024-01-18T06:59:48
|
2024-02-04T20:43:01
|
2024-02-04T20:43:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Dlm2tIiIEWGgzxNsm2iu
|
Will Nikki Haley come within single digits of Trump in new Hampshire, or beat him?
|
Resolves YES if Trump's vote share in the NH primary, minus Haley's vote share, is <10%
|
2024-01-18T06:53:29
|
2024-01-24T15:34:15
|
2024-01-24T15:34:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-upY89XsDvq0uJLK0mOlS
|
Will Dean Phillips get more than 20% of votes at the New Hampshire primary?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/new-hampshire/ Polls here
|
2024-01-18T06:16:47
|
2024-01-24T16:29:58
|
2024-01-24T16:29:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NOVDC1XyWqkLgnb0P4Qn
|
Will X (Twitter) Suffer a Major Outage in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if a major news outlet reports that X has suffered a "major outage" in 2024.
|
2024-01-17T23:21:27
|
2025-01-24T23:59:00
|
2025-01-25T00:54:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qPayIMX7e8Z0KRfvFsNx
|
Will OpenAI be involved in a major scandal before 2025?
|
Scandal has to be approximately as big as the Sam leaving situation.
|
2024-01-17T22:35:06
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-27T00:11:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4eGgMuHreVtlL2n240qE
|
Will OpenAI make a product that allows for direct control of your computer before 2025?
|
Resolves Yes if OpenAI offers a software product that has the capability to take over your computer to perform tasks.
My assumption would be some software that is powered by GPT-5 that you can ask to do things for you. This has been implied by Sam's talk about multi-modal capabilities.
|
2024-01-17T22:28:34
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-12T10:52:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gTroD1oloPPUa0Z1lzIv
|
Will Tom Brady be a part of the Super Bowl LIX broadcast?
|
Special guest, analyst, presenter, player on team, announcer, etc.
|
2024-01-17T22:06:47
|
2025-02-09T15:33:37
|
2025-02-09T15:33:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZVLgtLI2rzFQQrZ5q54N
|
Will Tom Brady be one of the announcers for Super Bowl LIX?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T22:01:41
|
2025-02-09T15:35:18
|
2025-02-09T15:35:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LrYxMb5tFmet1Ldk5CMw
|
Will the same film win both Best Picture and Best Director at the 2024 Oscars?
|
The 96th Academy Awards, held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. This market will resolve YES if the same film wins the Academy Award for both Best Picture and Best Director. It will resolve NO if two different films win these awards. For example:
At the 95th Academy Awards, it would have resolved YES (EEAAO won both awards).
At the 94th Academy Awards, it would have resolved NO ("CODA" won Best Picture, while "The Power of the Dog" won Best Director).
|
2024-01-17T21:28:28
|
2024-03-10T19:32:36
|
2024-03-10T19:32:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RHTNdYYzYok1j0beeIdC
|
Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Dec 2024?
|
Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through Dec 2024 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues).
Resolves YES otherwise.
Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowing PredictIt to continue to operate while a court case is considered.
|
2024-01-17T20:20:43
|
2024-12-30T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8TFGeI0Tv0SR5W3n6teN
|
Will Hans Niemann be ranked in the top 25 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024?
|
Hans Moke "The Smoke" Niemann, 20 is currently ranked #40 on the live ratings list at 2700chess.com with a rating of 2695 just shy of this career high of 2708. If he were to continue on his current upward trajectory, he would only need to gain ~30 rating points to reach the top 25 rankings in the world.
This market resolves YES if Hans Niemann is ranked 25th or higher on 2700chess.com classical ratings at any point in 2024. 2700chess.com tiebreak rules apply.
It will resolve NO if Hans is not ranked at least 25th or higher at any point in 2024.
It will be voided due to force majeure events as deemed fit by me
Related markets:
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-vincent-keymer-be-ranked-in-th-7ae0579912dd
https://manifold.markets/diadematus/will-praggnanandhaa-r-be-ranked-in?r=ZGlhZGVtYXR1cw
|
2024-01-17T20:05:20
|
2024-07-21T15:03:48
|
2024-07-21T15:03:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YQ7Kzlk0t7TrCAy3Y5FL
|
Will Taylor Swift be dancing at the Chiefs - Bills playoff game?
|
Must be shown on official NFL broadcast. Resolves NO if she is not at the game.
|
2024-01-17T20:04:58
|
2024-01-21T19:08:18
|
2024-01-21T19:08:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZktmYzUrU7M0AsoTBMS6
|
Will Nikki Haley reach at least 15% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page by the end of Valentine's Day? (Feb 14)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-17T19:34:15
|
2024-01-29T20:38:15
|
2024-01-29T20:38:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-njFXM54QEwiBMapgMBVe
|
Will Taylor Swift get married before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T18:10:51
|
2024-03-07T09:12:16
|
2024-03-07T09:12:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ur9ztlADFBynifUq5ZUD
|
Will Brighton beat Wolves during regular time on Mon, Jan 22, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Brighton vs Wolves
📅 Date: Monday, January 22, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Brighton has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Wolves has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-01-17T16:01:34
|
2024-01-22T14:45:00
|
2024-01-22T15:01:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TXSW1wheo6ocvUjgJDBq
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 20?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-01-17T15:28:49
|
2024-01-21T15:10:00
|
2024-01-21T15:10:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WwrjN9m3YF4A41AVjUYE
|
Will Joe Biden (write-in) win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/new-hampshire/
|
2024-01-17T15:17:41
|
2024-01-24T02:40:28
|
2024-01-24T02:40:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GUi2eeAsariQ0cec2NAN
|
Will Jair Bolsonaro be taken to jail until the end of 2024?
|
Bolsonaro has been under investigation by the Supreme Court over his role in the pro-Bolsonaro riots of January 2023:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/year-after-pro-bolsonaro-riots-dozens-arrests-brazil-106167040
Will he end up in jail?
|
2024-01-17T14:26:21
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-16T03:48:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S7LdA0UMUH2Ik4rbUWXW
|
Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy by 2030?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T12:10:45
|
2025-02-02T19:30:24
|
2025-02-02T19:30:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sRjBn2i3kxZA0uPLA8SV
|
Will Donald Trump win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T11:54:32
|
2024-01-23T20:07:15
|
2024-01-23T20:07:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jfMaCZgAqIfEbUEmLiHz
|
Will Palworld (Early Access) Have a “Very Positive” Score or Higher on Steam by the End of January?
|
For those unaware - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jn9LQslOjA&ab_channel=Xbox
Palworld's early access is releasing on January 19th, 2024. Previews are releasing now and general reception seems to somewhat positive, although some are less hot on it.
|
2024-01-17T09:33:35
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T06:12:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s7lOO3o1UTO0dgmCkjty
|
Will Mahomes criticize the refs again during or after the game against the Buffalo Bills?
|
Divisional Round game. Must be from credible source, will wait until Tuesday to resolve. He will need to be openly criticizing the refs, a penalty, a flag, etc. like he did during their last match-up. Things like shaking his head on the sideline after a bad call or mouthing "what the fuck" do not count.
|
2024-01-17T08:25:30
|
2024-01-23T06:40:42
|
2024-01-23T06:40:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n6tbVvBo5SF9gjZjOczo
|
Will GPT5 be released before the end of Oct 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T08:18:34
|
2024-11-05T14:59:00
|
2024-11-10T05:43:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VllOWqbSAn5iFzA6jcRc
|
Will GPT5 be released before the end of Aug 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-17T08:18:13
|
2024-09-05T14:59:00
|
2024-09-09T07:30:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O4t9LuwQLLr8DRAuSzGd
|
Will anyone get frostbite during the NFL playoff games this weekend?
|
For the Divisional Round of games.
Resolves on credible news source reporting a player or person at the game was being treated for "frostbite" specifically. Will wait to resolve until Tuesday.
|
2024-01-17T08:17:04
|
2024-01-23T07:15:32
|
2024-01-23T07:15:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MQ2gkufn050cclLgEVwB
|
Will Nikki Haley ever surpass 35% on 538's Republican Primary for New Hampshire page?
|
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/
|
2024-01-17T07:48:13
|
2024-01-21T19:46:06
|
2024-01-21T19:46:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2VmOg1XA3BOOxQ8153pT
|
Will S&P 500 price surpass $5,000 any day before the end of Feb 2024?
|
start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 17)
|
2024-01-17T07:41:28
|
2024-02-08T13:33:24
|
2024-02-08T13:33:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8l0d4Hmo8KIkzKF9MN0y
|
Will the Lions - Buccaneers playoff game break the 133.6 decibel Ford Field stadium record?
|
Previous Ford Field record is 127.6. It was broken during the game against the LA Rams. Current record to beat is 133.6 decibels, equivalent to the sound of a jet engine. Market may take time to resolve, but closes after one week regardless.
Yes: Over 133.6 decibels
No: Matches 133.6 decibels, under 133.6 decibels, no data
|
2024-01-17T07:38:49
|
2024-01-23T11:03:40
|
2024-01-23T11:03:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6s8ADQGNm32NmbjurjIw
|
Will the Bitcoin price drop below $38,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
|
Start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 17)
|
2024-01-17T07:32:38
|
2024-02-29T13:54:43
|
2024-02-29T13:54:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zVANO9jFhF4R2OqCzRBs
|
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2024? (May 5)
|
Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent
|
2024-01-17T06:24:23
|
2024-05-05T07:47:48
|
2024-05-05T07:47:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jenB9XlhobHtgpSu58bq
|
Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Kelly Jean in 2024
|
Bridge burn is pretty subjective, but the market will ultimately determine a definition. If Destiny says the bridge is burned (seriously) and can provide a reason, then that is enough to resolve this market.
If Destiny blocks them, gets blocked, or if one party refuses to do content with the other, this will count.
Bridge repairs will not save this market. Resolution within 2 weeks of a clear bridge burn (e.g. Brittany Simon being blocked, or MrGirl's stream ban, etc.)
Some less-clear bridge burns, e.g. Fuentes, Vaush, Hasan, Fanatic, are determined by one party's desire to do content where the other party will not. These may take several weeks/months to resolve where unclear.
|
2024-01-17T03:45:36
|
2024-12-31T07:29:00
|
2024-12-31T08:42:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jl6BRwktWUnoHpHcD6O7
|
Will Boris Nadezhdin be a candidate in Russia's 2024 presidential election?
|
A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Boris Nadezhdin intends to run for president. He openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.
I will resolve yes if he's admitted as a presidential candidate, i. e. if he's present in the ballot papers. I will resolve NO otherwise. I might resolve NO early if he's officially barred, dies, etc.
I will resolve N/A if the presidential elections aren't held (e. g. if they are cancelled, postponed, Russia ceases to exist, the post of the president of Russia ceases to exist, etc.)
|
2024-01-16T22:42:41
|
2024-03-14T12:59:00
|
2024-03-14T13:16:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YzPYziTxomavFZDS5QfF
|
Will a major social media platform be accused of influencing the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome?
|
Resolution Criteria:
The accusation must explicitly claim that the platform influenced the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The accusation must come from a credible and authoritative source, such as an official government entity, (e.g., a statement from a federal agency or a congressional committee).
The accusation must be reported and verified by at least three major national news organizations.
The question resolves 'Yes' if all the above criteria are met by February 1st 2025.
|
2024-01-16T22:35:29
|
2025-02-05T23:59:00
|
2025-02-06T00:18:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5CcvrPABVyNWpX1OnFg5
|
Will Trump be likely to run as an independent after the New Hampshire primary? (assuming no Republican nomination)
|
This resolves based on the moment the winner of the New Hampshire republican primary is called by the New York Times. At that time, this market resolves YES if this linked market shows 50% or higher:
@/DavidDavidson/if-trump-is-not-the-republican-nomi
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
|
2024-01-16T22:33:09
|
2024-01-23T17:02:38
|
2024-01-23T17:02:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EGRdWjURBsSSToQTi46D
|
Will Joe Biden die before the conclusion of the 2024 Election?
|
Will resolve yes if Joe Biden passes away before election day.
|
2024-01-16T22:00:04
|
2024-11-07T16:01:28
|
2024-11-07T16:01:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DgjlaDEbRgqPzMex3nhu
|
Will Destiny publish a video that surpasses the Alex Jones Jan. 6th debate in views in 2024?
|
Resolves immediately when proof is posted of another video passing the Alex Jones Jan. 6th debate video in Youtube views (views at that moment, not compared to views at the creation of this market).
Any of the official channels counts. Shorts or clips don't count, has to be at least 15 minutes long.
Resolves N/A if the Alex Jones video gets removed.
|
2024-01-16T21:30:06
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T16:45:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SsZ1wfOzpepNcUQtGIxL
|
Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if the 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary was cancaled
|
2024-01-16T19:47:29
|
2024-03-06T07:29:57
|
2024-03-06T07:29:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xi4VE9O5OuNhsRQDG2BS
|
Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary was cancaled
|
2024-01-16T19:45:46
|
2024-06-27T21:56:53
|
2024-06-27T21:56:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B5L2IKyrz1J6pRNMhXO1
|
Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled
|
2024-01-16T19:43:21
|
2024-03-16T18:33:57
|
2024-03-16T18:33:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I0qsMgZe7mo8yyZYCrO2
|
Will the 2024 U.S. presidential election have the highest voter turnout in American history?
|
62.0% of the voting age population voted in 2020. This was surprisingly the 2nd largest voter turnout since there was reliable data.
Will the 2024 elections have a higher % VAP turnout, surpassing 1960’s 62.8%?
Wikipedia Turnout Statistics:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_presidential_elections
|
2024-01-16T19:15:26
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-16T01:23:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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