id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-26nRwBszbgo83EVGz4Jn | Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2024? | [image]Will he ever visit Russia or Ukraine?
[markets] | 2024-01-20T05:43:56 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-07T06:49:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vUjZlIWaVOwCHyDEsVlR | Will GPT-5 be released before Apr 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before April 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-bef... | 2024-01-20T04:56:51 | 2024-04-01T02:36:40 | 2024-04-01T02:36:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fu6lfcARqNUl4F2fU1Iu | Will one of the Millenium Prize problems be solved by 2025? | They are: the Birch and Swinnington-Dyer Conjecture, the Hodge Conjecture, the Navier-Stokes Equation, P vs NP, the Riemann Hypothesis, and Yang-Mills & the Mass Gap. | 2024-01-19T20:06:37 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T02:11:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N8BKbI6FNlCZ79caevz5 | Will Nick Fuentes get a girlfriend in 2024? | Resolves yes if he says he did or if he’s public photos emerge heavily indicating that he did.
For context, Nick is 25 years old and has never been in a relationship. | 2024-01-19T19:41:30 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:02:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OmFTSiEUIUtJAIOYkLEY | Will Trump apologize for something before Election Day? | Must be for something he hasn’t publicly apologized for in the past. Doesn’t include sarcastic apologies.
Edit: To clarify, public apologies only. Reports of private apologies don’t count unless trump publicly confirms that he made them.
Edit 2: An apology must entail taking responsibility for something he had perso... | 2024-01-19T19:29:18 | 2024-11-05T15:29:38 | 2024-11-05T15:29:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tx1A7Z21nmbaQ6SMayjG | Will JetBlue or Spirit terminate their merger by February 29? | Resolves "YES" if either company issues a press release by February 29, 2024 at 11:59pm ET stating that they have terminated the merger agreement, even if the other company disagrees. | 2024-01-19T18:04:05 | 2024-02-29T21:59:00 | 2024-03-01T02:31:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jUjkNJIijIFmvOLDrUxI | Will SpaceX launch IFT-3 by March AND successfully demonstrate in-orbit propellant transfer? | Resolves Yes if IFT-3 launches by March and successfully demonstrates propellant transfer.
Defining reaching orbit as a stable orbit and completing at least one revolution around Earth
Defining successful propellant transfer based on how SpaceX/NASA report
Elon Musk stated IFT-3 goals here:
https://youtube.com/cli... | 2024-01-19T16:28:14 | 2024-03-14T13:46:39 | 2024-03-14T13:46:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YOBYtGm12Jg7KSrCBXN5 | Will Google DeepMind researchers leave to form a new startup named 'Holistic', in 2024? | Context
[image]Tweet link
Bloomberg link
Resolution Criteria
A better framing of the question would go like : "Will any researchers currently employed by Google DeepMind as of January 1, 2024, leave to form or join a new startup named 'Holistic' within the calendar year of 2024?"
Definitions
Researchers: Includes... | 2024-01-19T15:12:17 | 2024-12-31T16:17:59 | 2024-12-31T16:17:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eUKuzPb348edj3EkmVhU | Will "Ceasefire" get more write-in votes than Biden, Phillips, or Williamson in the New Hampshire Democratic primary? | Resolves YES if in the 2024 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire, there are more votes cast for "ceasefire" than for any one of Joe Biden, Dean Phillips, or Marianne Williamson, according to reliable media reports. Otherwise NO. (To be clear, that means if "ceasefire" gets more votes than Williamson but few... | 2024-01-19T13:52:09 | 2024-01-26T08:54:47 | 2024-01-26T08:54:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SWnWJtwY54L7TYWta2aJ | Will Reddit IPO by end of March 2024? | According to Crunch base, Reddit has filed plans to IPO in March 2024. This question resolves yes if Reddit's IPO goes through and shares are available for trading in the public market.
https://news.crunchbase.com/public/reddit-moves-forward-with-march-ipo-plans-report-says?utm_source=cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_ca... | 2024-01-19T13:46:57 | 2024-03-21T15:36:31 | 2024-03-21T15:36:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MPAhtwB1Sd4Pfpa5G0NS | Will OpenAI report an incident on January 23? | Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD. | 2024-01-19T12:16:33 | 2024-01-24T18:15:54 | 2024-01-24T18:15:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PVYhKFrOfgNPp5tsx2mh | Will OpenAI report an incident on January 22? | Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD. | 2024-01-19T12:15:57 | 2024-01-23T15:01:25 | 2024-01-23T15:01:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ycrJPDUwZ7HYmSyuQAk3 | Will OpenAI report an incident on January 21? | Resolves according to https://status.openai.com after EOD. | 2024-01-19T12:15:10 | 2024-01-22T20:59:00 | 2024-01-23T14:29:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WpsfnFlY6rsPzBpRYYYd | Will a Steam game break the concurrent player record in 2024? | The concurrent player record for games on steam is currently thought to be PUBG with 3,257,248 players, according to SteamDB.
https://steamdb.info/charts/?category=0&sort=peak
If a game breaks this record in 2024, this question will resolve YES.
To clarify: NOT the steam record for users, but an individual game's co... | 2024-01-19T11:47:51 | 2025-01-01T00:37:18 | 2025-01-01T00:37:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1DEGX7uMPYesVriwEbUR | Will China get more than 35 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T11:40:32 | 2024-08-11T19:29:05 | 2024-08-11T19:29:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OUGvQwSR3TIrZiGYNmoz | Will GPT-5 be released before May 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before May 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370feb... | 2024-01-19T11:33:48 | 2024-05-01T01:12:42 | 2024-05-01T01:12:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wlHiB76ZKgAnqrcmY4KN | Will USA get gold medal in Men's Basketball of 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T11:30:31 | 2024-08-10T18:45:57 | 2024-08-10T18:45:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m2KNTfjjO3zIbQPUunra | Will GPT-5 be released before Jun 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before June 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370fe... | 2024-01-19T11:09:21 | 2024-06-02T02:07:10 | 2024-06-02T02:07:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hkn8Lakzyr73wbMEup4K | Will GPT-5 be released before Jul 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before July 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370fe... | 2024-01-19T11:03:22 | 2024-07-03T14:30:07 | 2024-07-03T14:30:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nQbtETrdAhLjhkhCxc1x | Will GPT-5 be released before Aug 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before August 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-370... | 2024-01-19T10:55:42 | 2024-08-06T14:59:00 | 2024-08-25T10:53:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ongYJhan7wKuO8HwPsFX | Will GPT-5 be released before Sep 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before September 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-... | 2024-01-19T10:50:00 | 2024-09-05T21:17:35 | 2024-09-05T21:17:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8uIIoVJ8oTNImOlDJay | Will GPT-5 be released before Oct 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before October 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-37... | 2024-01-19T10:39:53 | 2024-10-06T01:22:47 | 2024-10-06T01:22:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KlunqEJ0gLhQnwjTyZR6 | Will GPT-5 be released before Nov 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before November 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-3... | 2024-01-19T10:35:16 | 2024-11-06T03:42:09 | 2024-11-06T03:42:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RDWu8WcOwoL5MdAr1Wmz | Will GPT-5 be released before Dec 2024? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before December 1st 2024
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-3... | 2024-01-19T10:31:02 | 2024-12-04T15:22:59 | 2024-12-04T15:22:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hTv2KTNtVYNNYCjs8oS8 | Will GPT-5 be released before Jan 2025? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before January 1st 2025
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-37... | 2024-01-19T10:26:52 | 2025-01-06T14:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:23:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-a7JV1NL0I2YeUBNn21OL | Will GPT-5 be released before Feb 2025? | Resolves as YES if GPT-5 is released before February 1st 2025
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-feb-20-8c957783cf35
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-mar-20-04aa9e145a57
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-apr-20-e3c7a09c7840
@/RemNi/will-gpt5-be-released-before-may-20-3... | 2024-01-19T10:22:55 | 2025-02-06T14:59:00 | 2025-03-01T08:13:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EuEiYIcxxsUlSdNFKd2d | Will AI automate GUIs by end of 2024? | Current AI agents (circa Jan 2024) are quite bad at clicking, reading screenshots, and interpreting the layout of webpages and GUIs. This is expected to change in the near future, with AI capable enough to navigate an arbitrary GUI about as well as a human.
Example of an early system of this type: https://github.com/O... | 2024-01-19T10:07:11 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-04T14:15:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C0l7BQXSIWtlCvzD9Cef | Will there be an SEC approval for a Spot Ethereum ETF before May 23rd, 2024? | With the SEC approving Spot Bitcoin ETFs recently, attention has turned to Ethereum as the next ETF opportunity. So will the SEC give approval to any financial firm to offer a spot ETH ETF by their deadline date?
JP Morgan says it is 50/50, what do you think?
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/01/19/no-more-than-5... | 2024-01-19T09:32:26 | 2024-05-23T21:49:45 | 2024-05-25T10:52:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZgQGzwO0Ft09zELH0ESW | Will USA get more gold medals than China in 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T08:06:42 | 2024-08-11T06:48:25 | 2024-08-11T06:48:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mslWqzdpHHBdQzetdotS | At the end of 2024 will the most commonly used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be a Land card? (non-Basic) | Will be going off of 'All 2024 Decks' in Standard format here: https://mtgtop8.com/topcards
NOT INCLUDING BASIC LANDS | 2024-01-19T07:12:31 | 2024-12-31T10:53:17 | 2024-12-31T10:53:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-83G4ajdRSMrQXXJvhxkB | Will Mistral AI release a new open model before June 1st 2024? | Resolves Yes if any new open models are released by Mistral AI before June.
A new model appears on https://huggingface.co/mistralai or on https://mistral.ai/technology/#models in the "Open" tab and is available to download elsewhere. | 2024-01-19T05:52:51 | 2024-04-13T11:18:13 | 2024-04-13T11:18:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hTWxFQwDJGS0tQtdxyGX | Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | 2024-01-19T05:45:20 | 2024-08-11T19:32:53 | 2024-08-11T19:32:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yRZ4LUFPmByZCjtDNtDP | Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | 2024-01-19T05:45:14 | 2024-08-11T19:32:59 | 2024-08-11T19:32:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qN2OMineotXwTLO33MIz | Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | gold + silver + bronze
Will USA get more than 130 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 120 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 110 medals in the 2024 Olympics?
Will USA get more than 100 medals in the 2024 Olympics? | 2024-01-19T05:45:05 | 2024-08-11T19:33:06 | 2024-08-11T19:33:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SYLi3UfraY8iBxxkSFok | Will USA get more than 50 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T05:43:47 | 2024-08-11T07:35:05 | 2024-08-11T07:35:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n9N5DXUv0ZRrXmbRtuWf | Will USA get more than 45 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T05:43:40 | 2024-08-11T07:35:13 | 2024-08-11T07:35:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZUjFyWsFvD6TXVVAI96S | Will USA get more than 40 gold medals in the 2024 Olympics? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-19T05:43:34 | 2024-08-11T07:36:08 | 2024-08-11T07:36:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mjKauOxKNybWbf79RUpN | 🍀 Will Apple have a product release event in March 2024? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Apple_Inc._media_events#2023
Just a press release doesn't count, but if they announce a video ahead of time and play it live (even if there are no in-person participants), I will resolve this as YES. | 2024-01-19T05:17:17 | 2024-03-31T14:42:12 | 2024-03-31T14:42:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-W66cktybToiB5ah9XxDo | Will there be more international travelers to Japan in 2024 than there were in 2019? | Based on Japan National Tourism Organisation statistics, which in turn are based on Ministry of Justice arrivals data.
https://www.tourism.jp/en/tourism-database/stats/inbound/
These figures do not include arrivals in Japan of permanent residents of Japan or Japanese nationals.
The JNTO reported 31 882 049 visits t... | 2024-01-19T04:48:56 | 2025-01-24T21:48:44 | 2025-01-24T21:48:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BgIitAvT8AjXEP7hEpAy | Will a video game integrating a GPT reach >100'000 concurrent players by the end of 2024? | The market will resolve YES if a video game that has a GPT as part of their game mechanics reaches more than 100'000 concurrent players by the end of 2024. The market will resolve NO otherwise. | 2024-01-19T01:09:04 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-05T21:41:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w9jgAa254klUcufknfTP | Will thé NASDAQ reach an All time high by April 1st? | Will be resolved yes if the stock NASDAQ composite goes past it’s All Time High of 16057.44 (currently at about 15000 and climbing) by April 1st. Resolves No if it doesn’t. | 2024-01-18T23:19:10 | 2024-03-04T21:29:06 | 2024-03-04T21:29:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m7yl50rPU1E6XPr3YotM | Will Destiny and Ben Shapiro's debate gain 1M views within a week? | Resolves Yes if YouTube shows that Lex Fridman's video of the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro has 1 million or more views before YouTube shows the video as being 7 days old.
Resolves No if the video does not reach 1 million views before the video is 7 days old. | 2024-01-18T21:01:11 | 2024-01-23T22:09:42 | 2024-01-23T22:09:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-o9GLRywVxsU1puz1o0Dp | Will China report more births in 2024 than in 2023? | [image]China reported 9.02 million births in 2023
Update 2025-02-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution is based on China's official reported birth numbers for 2024.
The market will resolve according to the figures reported by China without external verification. | 2024-01-18T20:27:31 | 2025-01-16T22:36:51 | 2025-01-16T22:36:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vJYZg9jBceNlIKa53HLU | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 24, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 24, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:25:01 | 2024-04-24T20:59:49 | 2024-04-25T19:14:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TYqmd2mLW8Rje2cfp7Kp | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:24:39 | 2024-04-22T14:14:30 | 2024-04-22T14:14:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tfuy5H1DtScwEdCLRa24 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:24:17 | 2024-04-18T19:29:02 | 2024-04-18T19:29:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dcGvF4C4Am8LILLT6on4 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:23:55 | 2024-04-16T20:34:46 | 2024-04-16T20:34:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7xqifsZG6q40WXHx9jBf | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:22:46 | 2024-04-09T14:25:31 | 2024-04-09T14:25:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oBLjklD1Mol6buAuHAVB | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 05, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 05, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:22:17 | 2024-04-05T20:59:49 | 2024-04-05T21:07:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1CsfKSHEPf4WQZZxKdTL | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:22:05 | 2024-04-04T20:59:49 | 2024-04-05T05:57:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pxd9sd3lk0Xhq5lbVhP1 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 02, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Apr 02, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-18T18:21:40 | 2024-04-02T17:21:57 | 2024-04-02T17:21:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XODWcCvoUrgvABmjAV7V | Will Donald Trump deny that he suffers from syphilis before the 2024 election? | This will resolve to "Yes" if Trump makes a public comment denying that he has syphilis before the 2024 US Presidential Election. | 2024-01-18T16:53:01 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T15:08:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9oAcWWqAHN70BblYi3V5 | Will the S&P500 increase MoM in Feb, 2024. | Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance. | 2024-01-18T15:49:20 | 2024-02-29T12:55:00 | 2024-02-29T13:20:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-10y8MEKmlM8R5Vz3SGl8 | Will Bitcoin be below 40k by February 1st | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-18T15:36:04 | 2024-01-22T13:18:44 | 2024-01-22T13:18:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-97hY2PpPL5IVnVt2XVdN | Will Ron DeSantis finish another primary/caucus above 3rd place? | Ron DeSantis just finished in 2nd place in Iowa, but just barely (won by 2k votes or 2%). NH doesn’t look good for him (nearly 29 points behind 2nd), South Carolina doesn’t look much better (more than 12 point behind 2nd).
Will Ron DeSantis finish above 3rd place again in the 2024 Presidential Primaries/Caucuses? This... | 2024-01-18T13:59:20 | 2024-01-21T15:01:57 | 2024-01-21T15:01:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VxAPVSjEtfF5fzVddpr0 | Will Trump sweep Super Tuesday? | Please read this carefully because of the Colorado lawsuit.
Resolves YES if Donald Trump received the most votes all 15 Republican Presidential primaries on "Super Tuesday" March 5, 2024. These include Republican primaries in Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Caro... | 2024-01-18T12:20:14 | 2024-03-05T20:59:00 | 2024-03-06T07:23:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R2Zv6AVQd2zd5cOUAqyt | Will the Republican nominee for Vice President be a white man? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-18T12:00:21 | 2024-07-16T12:09:32 | 2024-07-16T12:09:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q6qfnpeyvj8YlE42FWIQ | Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 AFC Championship | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-18T07:18:34 | 2024-01-28T15:13:56 | 2024-01-28T15:13:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sf2GsoBz2vwAMalT4r41 | Will the Detroit Lions shred the San Francisco 49ers? 🏈 NFC Championship | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-18T07:17:34 | 2024-01-28T18:50:50 | 2024-01-28T18:50:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OevyfCveT8kQ8IR31hNA | At the end of 2024 will the most used card in Standard Magic the Gathering decks be used in 45% or more of decks? | Will be going off of 'All 2024 Decks' in Standard format here: https://mtgtop8.com/topcards
NOT INCLUDING BASIC LANDS | 2024-01-18T07:03:00 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T18:48:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hbKHmlJu5RmFvD5rzmgA | Will any player get injured participating in the 2024 Pro Bowl Games? | [image] | 2024-01-18T06:59:48 | 2024-02-04T20:43:01 | 2024-02-04T20:43:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dlm2tIiIEWGgzxNsm2iu | Will Nikki Haley come within single digits of Trump in new Hampshire, or beat him? | Resolves YES if Trump's vote share in the NH primary, minus Haley's vote share, is <10% | 2024-01-18T06:53:29 | 2024-01-24T15:34:15 | 2024-01-24T15:34:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-upY89XsDvq0uJLK0mOlS | Will Dean Phillips get more than 20% of votes at the New Hampshire primary? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/new-hampshire/ Polls here
| 2024-01-18T06:16:47 | 2024-01-24T16:29:58 | 2024-01-24T16:29:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NOVDC1XyWqkLgnb0P4Qn | Will X (Twitter) Suffer a Major Outage in 2024? | Resolves Yes if a major news outlet reports that X has suffered a "major outage" in 2024. | 2024-01-17T23:21:27 | 2025-01-24T23:59:00 | 2025-01-25T00:54:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qPayIMX7e8Z0KRfvFsNx | Will OpenAI be involved in a major scandal before 2025? | Scandal has to be approximately as big as the Sam leaving situation. | 2024-01-17T22:35:06 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-27T00:11:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4eGgMuHreVtlL2n240qE | Will OpenAI make a product that allows for direct control of your computer before 2025? | Resolves Yes if OpenAI offers a software product that has the capability to take over your computer to perform tasks.
My assumption would be some software that is powered by GPT-5 that you can ask to do things for you. This has been implied by Sam's talk about multi-modal capabilities. | 2024-01-17T22:28:34 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-12T10:52:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gTroD1oloPPUa0Z1lzIv | Will Tom Brady be a part of the Super Bowl LIX broadcast? | Special guest, analyst, presenter, player on team, announcer, etc. | 2024-01-17T22:06:47 | 2025-02-09T15:33:37 | 2025-02-09T15:33:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZVLgtLI2rzFQQrZ5q54N | Will Tom Brady be one of the announcers for Super Bowl LIX? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T22:01:41 | 2025-02-09T15:35:18 | 2025-02-09T15:35:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LrYxMb5tFmet1Ldk5CMw | Will the same film win both Best Picture and Best Director at the 2024 Oscars? | The 96th Academy Awards, held in March 2024, will honor movies released in 2023. This market will resolve YES if the same film wins the Academy Award for both Best Picture and Best Director. It will resolve NO if two different films win these awards. For example:
At the 95th Academy Awards, it would have resolved YES ... | 2024-01-17T21:28:28 | 2024-03-10T19:32:36 | 2024-03-10T19:32:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RHTNdYYzYok1j0beeIdC | Will PredictIt still be operating markets through Dec 2024? | Resolves NO if PredictIt ceases operating markets at any time through Dec 2024 (excluding temporary unavailability for technical issues).
Resolves YES otherwise.
Background: PredictIt was ordered by the CFTC to shut down all markets by Feb 15, 2023. However, on January 26 an appeals court granted an injunction allowi... | 2024-01-17T20:20:43 | 2024-12-30T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:33:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8TFGeI0Tv0SR5W3n6teN | Will Hans Niemann be ranked in the top 25 on 2700chess.com at any point during 2024? | Hans Moke "The Smoke" Niemann, 20 is currently ranked #40 on the live ratings list at 2700chess.com with a rating of 2695 just shy of this career high of 2708. If he were to continue on his current upward trajectory, he would only need to gain ~30 rating points to reach the top 25 rankings in the world.
This market r... | 2024-01-17T20:05:20 | 2024-07-21T15:03:48 | 2024-07-21T15:03:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YQ7Kzlk0t7TrCAy3Y5FL | Will Taylor Swift be dancing at the Chiefs - Bills playoff game? | Must be shown on official NFL broadcast. Resolves NO if she is not at the game. | 2024-01-17T20:04:58 | 2024-01-21T19:08:18 | 2024-01-21T19:08:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZktmYzUrU7M0AsoTBMS6 | Will Nikki Haley reach at least 15% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page by the end of Valentine's Day? (Feb 14) | Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ | 2024-01-17T19:34:15 | 2024-01-29T20:38:15 | 2024-01-29T20:38:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-njFXM54QEwiBMapgMBVe | Will Taylor Swift get married before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T18:10:51 | 2024-03-07T09:12:16 | 2024-03-07T09:12:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ur9ztlADFBynifUq5ZUD | Will Brighton beat Wolves during regular time on Mon, Jan 22, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Brighton vs Wolves
📅 Date: Monday, January 22, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:45
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Brighton has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppag... | 2024-01-17T16:01:34 | 2024-01-22T14:45:00 | 2024-01-22T15:01:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TXSW1wheo6ocvUjgJDBq | Will OpenAI report an incident on January 20? | Resolves according to https://status.openai.com | 2024-01-17T15:28:49 | 2024-01-21T15:10:00 | 2024-01-21T15:10:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WwrjN9m3YF4A41AVjUYE | Will Joe Biden (write-in) win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/new-hampshire/ | 2024-01-17T15:17:41 | 2024-01-24T02:40:28 | 2024-01-24T02:40:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GUi2eeAsariQ0cec2NAN | Will Jair Bolsonaro be taken to jail until the end of 2024? | Bolsonaro has been under investigation by the Supreme Court over his role in the pro-Bolsonaro riots of January 2023:
https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/year-after-pro-bolsonaro-riots-dozens-arrests-brazil-106167040
Will he end up in jail? | 2024-01-17T14:26:21 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-16T03:48:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S7LdA0UMUH2Ik4rbUWXW | Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy by 2030? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T12:10:45 | 2025-02-02T19:30:24 | 2025-02-02T19:30:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sRjBn2i3kxZA0uPLA8SV | Will Donald Trump win a majority of the vote in the 2024 New Hampshire primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T11:54:32 | 2024-01-23T20:07:15 | 2024-01-23T20:07:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jfMaCZgAqIfEbUEmLiHz | Will Palworld (Early Access) Have a “Very Positive” Score or Higher on Steam by the End of January? | For those unaware - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Jn9LQslOjA&ab_channel=Xbox
Palworld's early access is releasing on January 19th, 2024. Previews are releasing now and general reception seems to somewhat positive, although some are less hot on it. | 2024-01-17T09:33:35 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T06:12:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s7lOO3o1UTO0dgmCkjty | Will Mahomes criticize the refs again during or after the game against the Buffalo Bills? | Divisional Round game. Must be from credible source, will wait until Tuesday to resolve. He will need to be openly criticizing the refs, a penalty, a flag, etc. like he did during their last match-up. Things like shaking his head on the sideline after a bad call or mouthing "what the fuck" do not count. | 2024-01-17T08:25:30 | 2024-01-23T06:40:42 | 2024-01-23T06:40:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-n6tbVvBo5SF9gjZjOczo | Will GPT5 be released before the end of Oct 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T08:18:34 | 2024-11-05T14:59:00 | 2024-11-10T05:43:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VllOWqbSAn5iFzA6jcRc | Will GPT5 be released before the end of Aug 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-17T08:18:13 | 2024-09-05T14:59:00 | 2024-09-09T07:30:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O4t9LuwQLLr8DRAuSzGd | Will anyone get frostbite during the NFL playoff games this weekend? | For the Divisional Round of games.
Resolves on credible news source reporting a player or person at the game was being treated for "frostbite" specifically. Will wait to resolve until Tuesday. | 2024-01-17T08:17:04 | 2024-01-23T07:15:32 | 2024-01-23T07:15:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MQ2gkufn050cclLgEVwB | Will Nikki Haley ever surpass 35% on 538's Republican Primary for New Hampshire page? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/ | 2024-01-17T07:48:13 | 2024-01-21T19:46:06 | 2024-01-21T19:46:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2VmOg1XA3BOOxQ8153pT | Will S&P 500 price surpass $5,000 any day before the end of Feb 2024? | start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 17) | 2024-01-17T07:41:28 | 2024-02-08T13:33:24 | 2024-02-08T13:33:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8l0d4Hmo8KIkzKF9MN0y | Will the Lions - Buccaneers playoff game break the 133.6 decibel Ford Field stadium record? | Previous Ford Field record is 127.6. It was broken during the game against the LA Rams. Current record to beat is 133.6 decibels, equivalent to the sound of a jet engine. Market may take time to resolve, but closes after one week regardless.
Yes: Over 133.6 decibels
No: Matches 133.6 decibels, under 133.6 decibels, ... | 2024-01-17T07:38:49 | 2024-01-23T11:03:40 | 2024-01-23T11:03:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6s8ADQGNm32NmbjurjIw | Will the Bitcoin price drop below $38,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | Start counting from the creation of this market (Jan 17) | 2024-01-17T07:32:38 | 2024-02-29T13:54:43 | 2024-02-29T13:54:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zVANO9jFhF4R2OqCzRBs | Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2024? (May 5) | Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent | 2024-01-17T06:24:23 | 2024-05-05T07:47:48 | 2024-05-05T07:47:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jenB9XlhobHtgpSu58bq | Will the Bridge Burn: Destiny & Kelly Jean in 2024 | Bridge burn is pretty subjective, but the market will ultimately determine a definition. If Destiny says the bridge is burned (seriously) and can provide a reason, then that is enough to resolve this market.
If Destiny blocks them, gets blocked, or if one party refuses to do content with the other, this will count.
B... | 2024-01-17T03:45:36 | 2024-12-31T07:29:00 | 2024-12-31T08:42:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jl6BRwktWUnoHpHcD6O7 | Will Boris Nadezhdin be a candidate in Russia's 2024 presidential election? | A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Boris Nadezhdin intends to run for president. He openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.
I will resolve yes if he's admitted as a presidential candidat... | 2024-01-16T22:42:41 | 2024-03-14T12:59:00 | 2024-03-14T13:16:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YzPYziTxomavFZDS5QfF | Will a major social media platform be accused of influencing the 2024 U.S. presidential election outcome? | Resolution Criteria:
The accusation must explicitly claim that the platform influenced the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The accusation must come from a credible and authoritative source, such as an official government entity, (e.g., a statement from a federal agency or a congressional committee).
... | 2024-01-16T22:35:29 | 2025-02-05T23:59:00 | 2025-02-06T00:18:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5CcvrPABVyNWpX1OnFg5 | Will Trump be likely to run as an independent after the New Hampshire primary? (assuming no Republican nomination) | This resolves based on the moment the winner of the New Hampshire republican primary is called by the New York Times. At that time, this market resolves YES if this linked market shows 50% or higher:
@/DavidDavidson/if-trump-is-not-the-republican-nomi
Otherwise, this market resolves NO. | 2024-01-16T22:33:09 | 2024-01-23T17:02:38 | 2024-01-23T17:02:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EGRdWjURBsSSToQTi46D | Will Joe Biden die before the conclusion of the 2024 Election? | Will resolve yes if Joe Biden passes away before election day. | 2024-01-16T22:00:04 | 2024-11-07T16:01:28 | 2024-11-07T16:01:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DgjlaDEbRgqPzMex3nhu | Will Destiny publish a video that surpasses the Alex Jones Jan. 6th debate in views in 2024? | Resolves immediately when proof is posted of another video passing the Alex Jones Jan. 6th debate video in Youtube views (views at that moment, not compared to views at the creation of this market).
Any of the official channels counts. Shorts or clips don't count, has to be at least 15 minutes long.
Resolves N/A if... | 2024-01-16T21:30:06 | 2024-12-31T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T16:45:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SsZ1wfOzpepNcUQtGIxL | Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if the 2024 Oklahoma Republican presidential primary was cancaled | 2024-01-16T19:47:29 | 2024-03-06T07:29:57 | 2024-03-06T07:29:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xi4VE9O5OuNhsRQDG2BS | Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if the 2024 New Mexico Republican presidential primary was cancaled | 2024-01-16T19:45:46 | 2024-06-27T21:56:53 | 2024-06-27T21:56:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B5L2IKyrz1J6pRNMhXO1 | Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary was cancaled | 2024-01-16T19:43:21 | 2024-03-16T18:33:57 | 2024-03-16T18:33:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-I0qsMgZe7mo8yyZYCrO2 | Will the 2024 U.S. presidential election have the highest voter turnout in American history? | 62.0% of the voting age population voted in 2020. This was surprisingly the 2nd largest voter turnout since there was reliable data.
Will the 2024 elections have a higher % VAP turnout, surpassing 1960’s 62.8%?
Wikipedia Turnout Statistics:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voter_turnout_in_United_States_president... | 2024-01-16T19:15:26 | 2024-11-05T23:59:00 | 2024-11-16T01:23:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
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