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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ITYS0aV0IIawe9CeEouF
|
Will Trump beat Nikki Haley by at least 15% in New Hampshire Primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T18:54:49
|
2024-01-24T20:12:24
|
2024-01-24T20:12:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-du0X96VKU9WBSn2pObJL
|
Will Trump beat Nikki Haley by at least 10% in New Hampshire Primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T18:54:42
|
2024-01-24T16:24:55
|
2024-01-24T16:24:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-13W4Si7TqhnD15nYWH31
|
Will Trump beat Nikki Haley by at least 5% in New Hampshire Primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T18:54:34
|
2024-01-24T17:29:41
|
2024-01-24T17:29:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sfXXU8zoSXUPScNKhTtz
|
Will the Vice President from the 2024 election be female?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T18:46:21
|
2024-11-07T13:38:59
|
2024-11-07T13:38:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-olyotErALir7RNPvWVdZ
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 18?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-01-16T17:29:38
|
2024-01-19T02:33:48
|
2024-01-19T02:33:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VBXOWW5jKIgyXzMDRHAG
|
Will the US invade Yemen in 2024?
|
Invade = boots on the ground. An invasion by an international coalition that includes US troops counts.
|
2024-01-16T15:31:39
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:41:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ipAEhrSXicA3vhwYAKbk
|
Will GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 be officially announced within two weeks (on either side) of the release of Gemini Ultra?
|
Seems like historically AI models often get released near each other, for whatever reason. Bard was released on March 21, 2023, a week after GPT-4, for example, and Claude 2 was released on March 14, the same day as GPT-4.
Resolves yes if there are less than or equal to 14 days between the public release of Gemini Ultra and the announcement of GPT-4.5 or GPT-5 (not necessarily the release). February 10 and February 24 would resolve yes, February 10 and February 25 would resolve no. Time zone PST. Resolution only based on day of release, not time (Feb 10, 12:01 AM and Feb 24, 11:59 PM resolves yes).
If OpenAI decides to call 4.5 or 5 a different thing, that would still count, but it would have to be clearly the next model (GPT-4 Super Turbo or something would not count).
|
2024-01-16T13:59:18
|
2024-02-23T14:05:16
|
2024-02-23T14:05:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wbyp7RoiYMHfQ96LJSiR
|
Will a Repub presidential candidate not named Donald Trump win the most delegates in any state on Super Tuesday?
|
The following 15 states will hold their respective caucus/primary on March 5, 2024 with party-specific where noted:
Alabama
Alaska (Republican)
Arkansas
California
Colorado
Maine
Massachusetts
Minnesota
North Carolina
Oklahoma
Tennessee
Texas
Utah (Democratic primary/Republican caucus)
Vermont
Virginia
Will resolve YES if any Republican candidate challenging Donald Trump still remaining in the race or has dropped out but is still receiving votes earns enough votes in a given state to win the most delegates in one of the states above.
Edit to add: Following Nevada, I will absolutely count “None of these” toward a YES resolution since that option is not Donald Trump, provided he is on the ballot.
|
2024-01-16T12:55:15
|
2024-03-06T02:51:10
|
2024-03-06T02:51:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-81BXwnpDtWwNuxrnHXzH
|
Will any post-season NFL game be rescheduled or cancelled?
|
2023/24 season. Includes playoff games and super bowl. Does not include last weekend's Buffalo Bills game, that already happened. It would take something major for this to happen, but you can never be too sure.
|
2024-01-16T12:26:38
|
2024-02-11T14:44:42
|
2024-02-11T14:44:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PQO6hJVaFI3jzUjYMvXI
|
Will Manchester City win the 2023-2024 Premier League?
|
Resolves to yes if it wins and no if it doesn't.
|
2024-01-16T12:11:17
|
2024-05-19T10:07:10
|
2024-05-19T10:07:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qpKHnXWIoKMlGM3vUxQI
|
Argentina will officially announce plans for dollarization by 11/20/24
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T10:25:36
|
2024-11-30T20:59:00
|
2024-12-02T10:06:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ENGovCzIHzj3SHq71Wn
|
China will win and the US will finish second in the 2024 International Math Olympiad
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T10:20:18
|
2024-07-21T19:56:05
|
2024-07-21T19:56:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W1sL2ceHUrecXdwR950C
|
The US Supreme Court will reduce access to RU-486 (Mifepristone) in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T10:17:46
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-16T09:54:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ugF96EsxxZstYw3713B1
|
Evan Gershkovich (Wall Street Journalist) will still be under Russian detention on March 29, 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T09:58:35
|
2024-03-30T20:59:00
|
2024-03-31T10:37:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GoUUMWXOZQ2U1gQmRhgq
|
Oppenheimer will win 3+ more Oscars than Barbie
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T09:57:24
|
2024-03-10T22:32:13
|
2024-03-10T22:32:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CVDr0wB9Coxxn0KzBfQS
|
Will Dean Phillips meet the delegate threshold of 15% in the Democratic New Hampshire primary?
|
15.0000…. percent or higher, no rounding.
Does NOT depend on whether the delegates will eventually be replaced by a state convention or refuse to be seated at the national convention. Purely about whether he reaches 15% of total votes.
|
2024-01-16T09:49:35
|
2024-01-24T02:34:52
|
2024-01-24T02:34:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-acXkXNXOhJcEVV212KXW
|
Will Ron DeSantis still be an active candidate for US President when Nikki Haley drops out?
|
Resolves YES when:
Nikki Haley drops out (or for some other reason is found to be ineligible to be president: dies, discovered to not be US citizen or 35…etc.)
Resolves NO when:
Ron DeSantis drops out (or for some other reason is found to be ineligible to be president: dies, discovered to not be US citizen or 35…etc.)
Resolves 50/50 when:
Both DeSantis and Haley are still running for President at the RNC convention on July 15th, 2024
Both drop out at the exact same time (same time, not just same date; Jefferson died before Adams)
Also vote on:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-ron-desantis-yes-get-more-tota)
|
2024-01-16T08:47:50
|
2024-01-21T14:59:48
|
2024-01-21T14:59:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5E7HURNORzkdunblr2NX
|
Will Nikki Haley Reach at least 20% on 538's Republican Primary page by the end of Donald Trump's Birthday? (June 14)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-16T08:35:07
|
2024-03-21T07:15:05
|
2024-03-21T07:15:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LG5WlM2PEHMBvrLhcZL1
|
NFL Divisional: Will Detriot Lions win against Tampa bay Buccaneers by more than 6.5 points [Jan 21st]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T06:55:51
|
2024-01-21T15:16:20
|
2024-01-21T15:16:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GuhzL5QJoBhEJ8OV3PzN
|
Will Narendra Modi's political alliance achieve more than 320 seats in the 2024 Indian general elections?
|
In 2019 NDA obtained 353 out of 543. It is expected that Modi will win the elections but by far less than expected. I will resolve the question using the number reported on the Wikipedia page, probably well before the end of the year. The opinion polls on the same page predict between 295 and 339 seats.
|
2024-01-16T04:45:07
|
2024-06-05T23:47:34
|
2024-06-05T23:47:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3cHnubxz0Z8Xny2mOrkL
|
Will OpenAI release Q star by June 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-16T04:01:19
|
2024-06-01T02:38:30
|
2024-06-01T02:38:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XkwCBPQZvOysQtkgJDFc
|
Will 3Blue1Brown release a main-channel video by the end of January?
|
Will resolve YES if there is a new non-short video upload to https://youtube.com/@3blue1brown before the end of January 2024. Will resolve NO if the deadline passes
|
2024-01-16T01:35:24
|
2024-01-31T21:59:00
|
2024-01-31T22:07:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5n22jkUuJxGAKxKZHwKn
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 17, 2024?
|
Resolves according to https://status.openai.com
|
2024-01-15T23:28:53
|
2024-01-17T15:28:27
|
2024-01-17T15:28:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wXjbTR8IPQgoJ4XMuEm1
|
Will any Republican win a majority in the New Hampshire primary?
|
Will any candidate win more than 50% of the votes in the Republican New Hampshire primary?
|
2024-01-15T21:24:00
|
2024-01-23T21:59:00
|
2024-01-23T22:19:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PbiSgl7Np4Tvu2mQvftw
|
Will the Florida Panthers beat Detroit Red Wings on Jan 17?
|
Florida Panthers vs Detroit Red Wings @6pm CST
Overtime Market | Shootout Market
Game start at 6:00pm CST.
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Florida Panthers win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image]
|
2024-01-15T20:53:28
|
2024-01-17T18:52:20
|
2024-01-17T18:52:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WorF3phzmwOozIhEb6Ca
|
Will Trump get a higher percentage in New Hampshire than he got in Iowa?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T20:48:42
|
2024-01-22T21:11:28
|
2024-01-23T21:06:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PReVxcPjmxNBxoWpalMm
|
Will Mike Tomlin still be coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers at the start of the 2024/25 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T20:34:14
|
2024-08-02T19:22:32
|
2024-08-02T19:22:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EDBOWNbYShHisUwUvCbR
|
Will Nick Sirianni still be coach of the Philadelphia Eagles at the start of the 2024/25 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T20:32:30
|
2024-08-02T19:23:07
|
2024-08-02T19:23:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r9ULVcrJF2vLyIInXlCr
|
Will Pete Carroll be the head coach of an NFL team by April 1, 2024?
|
This question is in reference to Carroll's potential future job, following his ouster in Seattle.
|
2024-01-15T20:27:46
|
2024-04-02T20:59:00
|
2024-04-03T20:32:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kMZr68cuunZb462ZIf1O
|
NFL: Will the Detroit Lions beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers by more than 6.5 points in their divisional round game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T20:19:22
|
2024-01-21T15:12:31
|
2024-01-21T15:12:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4wmPBpV4toy6i5dn68BI
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys choke again in the playoffs in the 2024/25 season?
|
No: win a playoff game
Yes: don't win a single playoff game, don't make the playoffs
|
2024-01-15T17:50:16
|
2024-12-22T17:01:11
|
2024-12-22T17:01:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AflcX0UCTL81hkCllf9x
|
NFL Divisional: Will Baltimore Ravens win against Houston Texans by more than 8.5 points [Jan 20th]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T17:06:48
|
2024-01-20T16:47:48
|
2024-01-20T16:47:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t2rDXEJTxan3g8Ndu8wc
|
NFL Divisional Round: will the #1 Baltimore Ravens (home) beat the #4 Houston Texans in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T17:05:41
|
2024-01-20T16:42:41
|
2024-01-20T16:42:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5dI0IiI41MRiRyIUoRQm
|
NFL Divisional Round: will the #2 Buffalo Bills (home) beat the #3 Kansas City Chiefs in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T17:04:27
|
2024-01-21T18:55:35
|
2024-01-21T18:55:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6dsLXuSbj20W7lGjOSkJ
|
Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T15:07:18
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T19:06:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WZI7uAJLy5V3JjE4r4Mi
|
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2025?
|
2025 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t
In line with recent progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2025? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.
Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.
The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator. Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.
|
2024-01-15T15:03:28
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T11:51:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jWiebzDzFelVVU4yDKa4
|
Will the oldest person alive(Maria Branyas) be alive by EOY 2024
|
Maria Branyas, born March 4th 1907 will turn 117 this year. Will she survive until end of year 2024?
|
2024-01-15T14:55:12
|
2024-08-22T20:38:18
|
2024-08-22T20:38:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p9EXP7I1IaXm4Zdkdtsf
|
Will Musk get 25% Tesla's votes by January 2025 end?
|
Musk said he would need 25% voting stake in Tesla to develop AI stuff there.
[tweet]
He currently owns 13% of the company. Tesla has only one class of stock.
If Musk gets to 25% voting share at least by the end of January 2025, either through stock issuance or a change of the company's charter to give the CEO super-voting shares, this market resolves to YES. I'll wait for this to be approved on assembly and rely one the mainstream media to know whether it is for real.
|
2024-01-15T13:50:11
|
2025-01-31T18:59:00
|
2025-03-05T10:03:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UOWg6T0orXzhCs5c2MPq
|
Will Steve Belichick stay with the Patriots for the full 2024/25 season?
|
[image]
|
2024-01-15T13:40:46
|
2024-02-07T12:09:14
|
2024-02-07T12:09:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-atJUSLZN5rmoWCBMpWOd
|
If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civil disorder in the weeks following the election?
|
If Trump wins, will there be wide scale civic unrest? This would be something like riots with widespread property damage, dozens of injuries, thousands arrested or multiple fatalities. It would have to happen in more than one city.
The judgment will be pretty subjective so I will not bet. If Trump loses this will resolve as N/A.
|
2024-01-15T13:37:09
|
2025-01-22T23:59:00
|
2025-01-23T09:43:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v7mDup338pNirBsqa3MN
|
Will Jimmy Carter turn 99 years and 183 days old?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T11:15:56
|
2024-04-01T23:59:00
|
2024-04-15T10:58:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NiISX0hwdxTAVw1ohno7
|
Will OpenAI offer a cheaper paid tier (<20$) or reduce the price of ChatGPT Plus by more than 5$ in 2024?
|
I imagine them offering a cheaper tier once they roll out GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, which would only give GPT-4 or limited access to the newer models.
Limited offers would count towards resolving this market as Yes. Having to commit for one year also counts.
|
2024-01-15T08:55:26
|
2024-12-31T11:01:34
|
2024-12-31T11:01:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wbzQ7u7rczvigTtvbKrp
|
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 Playoffs
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-15T08:53:01
|
2024-01-21T18:43:45
|
2024-01-21T18:43:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BnmiMxRYC4yuuZXILpM0
|
Will the Houston Texans stampede the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 Playoffs
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-15T08:52:43
|
2024-01-20T16:38:18
|
2024-01-20T16:38:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y1troRusEqb93TgnR86u
|
Does Trump break 50% in the Iowa Caucus?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T08:16:25
|
2024-01-16T04:20:23
|
2024-01-16T04:20:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pavZRDvzbxRdbopyXZUT
|
Will Llama 3 use Mixture of Experts?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T07:23:59
|
2024-07-30T06:00:35
|
2024-07-30T06:00:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yHhYt7e2KDgdRv6fVu1h
|
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $547.10 per share on January 19, 2024?
|
Weekly prediction for NVDA.
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $547.10 USD on the closing price of 19 of January, 2024. Any moves above $547.10 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
|
2024-01-15T07:18:57
|
2024-01-19T16:10:15
|
2024-01-19T16:10:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GAMB2DWAFzxg2Tr6gWvU
|
Will Trump win the Presidency in 2024, now that SCOTUS has reversed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision?
|
Resolves N/A if @/DanMan314/will-scotus-reverse-the-colorado-su resolves NO. Otherwise resolves identically to @/duck/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-pres.
In other words (I’m pretty sure…), resolves N/A if Trump is barred from the ballot by SCOTUS, otherwise resolves based on Trump winning the Presidency.
|
2024-01-15T06:58:42
|
2024-11-06T13:28:56
|
2024-11-06T13:28:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kmMwnlHPThHpVcQNkqCQ
|
Will the winner of the GOP Iowa Caucuses also win the New Hampshire primary?
|
Resolves YES if the candidate that wins the most delegates in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caususes goes on to win the most delegates in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary.
The market will close at midnight ET on January 23rd.
The resolution will be based on the official delegate counts of the Republican National Committee (RNC), and any disputes about the delegate count will be resolved based on the RNC's official statements.
|
2024-01-15T06:12:35
|
2024-01-23T20:59:00
|
2024-01-24T09:04:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K9MWHxRSVyFhItw7Dg8J
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers dynamite the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 Super Bowl LVIII
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T05:47:05
|
2024-02-11T19:47:56
|
2024-02-11T19:47:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J1b8eUwc7bOffbmaCsjS
|
will the turnout in the 2024 Iowa Republican Caucus exceed 110,000 voters?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T05:35:03
|
2024-01-16T12:22:14
|
2024-01-16T12:22:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dPHsu2o6njFBcxzOi54H
|
Will the S&P 500 stock index close higher on Jan. 19 than it closed on Jan. 12(4697.24)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T05:33:42
|
2024-01-19T13:17:04
|
2024-01-19T13:17:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GhRlFK97da682cTBelNf
|
Will the AfD Be the Most Voted Party in Germany in the 2024 European Parliament Elections?
|
Resolves YES if the AfD gets the most votes in the 2024 European Parliament elections in Germany. Resolves NO if any other party surpasses the AfD vote share.
Outcome will be determined by official election results, published on a site such as bundeswahlleiterin.de
Results from 2019:
https://www.bundeswahlleiterin.de/europawahlen/2019/ergebnisse/bund-99.html
Poll from 31.07.2023:
https://www.europawahl-bw.de/wahlprognosen-europawahl#c88228
Trading closes one day before the current planned date of the vote.
For the purposes of this question CDU/CSU are counted as one Party, i.e. the Union
|
2024-01-15T05:28:55
|
2024-06-08T14:59:00
|
2024-06-09T22:42:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xdf2rxxnEiLeJXcyuAWt
|
Will Bitcoin go down to 40K in Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T05:27:42
|
2024-01-22T16:02:51
|
2024-01-22T16:02:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sDjVsxtEZNQkiippuAym
|
Will Bitcoin go down to 40K in Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-15T05:27:33
|
2024-01-22T16:03:02
|
2024-01-22T16:03:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gPg6dNpKqXmsXTEPz1Sm
|
Will any Republican candidate deny the result of the Iowa Republican presidential Caucus?
|
The Iowa Caucus to be the Republican nominee in the 2024 Presidential election takes place today.
Once the results become clear, will any of the following candidates claim that the results were fraudulent?
Donald Trump
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Vivek Ramaswamy
Asa Hutchinson
The caucus process is complicated, but the Republican party puts out a popular vote total which looks something like this:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses
If any candidate claims that the vote totals are fake/fraudulent, this market resolves to YES. This includes a candidate who claims that they got more votes than their opponents when the results indicate that they did not, but it also includes a candidate saying that the position was right but that the votes are inaccurate (eg. "the fake results say that I won by 20% but I actually won by 40%").
What doesn't count?
Procedural complaints such as saying that the process was unfair but that the vote totals are still accurate (eg. a candidate saying that they would have won if there had been a delay for the weather conditions)
Complaining that their opponents won votes by making false claims, threats, etc. but not denying that they really did get those votes
Anything to do with the process/delegates (eg. agreeing that the vote totals are accurate but claiming that they will get more delegates than the media is reporting)
The claim must be made by the end of the day (Midnight EST) on Sunday. If there is no evidence of any such claims by Monday, I will resolve the market to NO.
|
2024-01-15T04:48:19
|
2024-01-22T13:38:50
|
2024-01-22T13:38:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KYrPZnfBILaBRtmChWfh
|
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of June 2024?
|
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current rate (15 Jan 2024) is around 87.5 against the USD (the higher the rate, the weaker the Ruble).
|
2024-01-15T02:53:13
|
2024-07-01T14:59:00
|
2024-07-17T06:50:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uf8h8zgHp0RI2BU18uS1
|
Will Destiny talk to Keffals during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-15T02:41:58
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:51:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LUHDKPDnpBmPaYsUjaSp
|
Will Nikki Haley reach at least 15% on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page by the end of Her Birthday? (Jan 20)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-14T23:34:13
|
2024-01-20T20:59:00
|
2024-01-20T22:37:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rs8eb7eWXPlCteF77F3b
|
Will the Detroit Lions shred the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 Playoffs
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-14T20:14:21
|
2024-01-21T15:13:04
|
2024-01-21T15:13:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CijvxGJiHt9LMNPD4DlQ
|
NFL Playoff Divisional Round: will the #3 Detroit Lions (home) beat the #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
Will fill in correct opponent name after the game on Monday night.
|
2024-01-14T20:07:04
|
2024-01-21T15:22:46
|
2024-01-21T15:22:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q4C8r3fPL9TwQptr8bRB
|
Will Trump say AI is a problem during a presidential debate?
|
Could be a debate against Biden, against a primary opponent, etc
They don't literally have to say "AI is a problem", they just need to express the sentiment on stage.
|
2024-01-14T19:00:34
|
2024-11-15T10:24:36
|
2024-11-15T10:24:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rl0iMdl3P6S4pTdHTsGg
|
Will the court rule that Google has illegally maintained a monopoly before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-14T17:25:52
|
2024-08-08T07:56:38
|
2024-08-08T07:56:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZxQJqx4UIRYfHrWWOX6
|
NFL Divisional: Will San Francisco 49ers win against Green Bay Packers by more than 9.5 points [Jan 20th]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-14T17:06:59
|
2024-01-20T20:19:23
|
2024-01-20T20:19:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BeiPEF2OXpNgO4DeXt8a
|
NFL Playoff Divisional Round: will the #1 San Francisco 49ers (home) beat the #7 Green Bay Packers in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-14T17:00:14
|
2024-01-20T20:20:45
|
2024-01-20T20:20:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sId4dMvgwkxS6Kq7O9ls
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers dynamite the Green Bay Packers? 🏈 Playoffs
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-14T16:38:13
|
2024-01-20T20:19:10
|
2024-01-20T20:19:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XHZYeiEJcdBxOECaOotR
|
Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2025?
|
Update 2025-19-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria:
TikTok has been banned
"By the end of 2025" means the ban occurs at any point before the end of 2025
|
2024-01-14T15:55:29
|
2025-03-05T10:11:44
|
2025-03-05T10:11:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ay5Ka4NQfywCuPPFjQy
|
Will The Fed raise interest rates before it cuts them?
|
Will the next change in interest rates by the US Fed be up?
Will be extended if there are no rate changes this year. I will not bet.
|
2024-01-14T15:53:57
|
2024-09-18T11:18:05
|
2024-09-18T11:18:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S79BhUQrXkR423ULuned
|
In the next UK election (2024/25) will the turnout be at least 68.0%?
|
Yes if turnout is greater than or equal to 68.0%
No if less than 68.0%.
I will not vote in this market
|
2024-01-14T15:49:55
|
2024-07-04T22:01:44
|
2024-07-04T22:01:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4nfuIYV65AqK8lxARxkA
|
Will Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market largely remain in [80%,95%] until the end of Feb 2024
|
Resolves to No if the Biden 2024 Democratic Nominee Market's price stayed outside of [80%,95%] for 1 consecutive hour.
Resolves Yes otherwise
(This setup is there to prevent very short period snapping from affecting resolution)
Referenced Market: https://manifold.markets/NathanpmYoung/will-biden-be-the-2024-democratic-n
Note:
-Resolution base on the displayed rounded probability
-Base on ET time zone
|
2024-01-14T14:40:17
|
2024-02-01T00:23:25
|
2024-02-01T00:23:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gijp28tM3IYtjA747eJ4
|
Will Robert Gronkowski make the FanDuel "Kick of Destiny 2" at Super Bowl LVIII?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-14T14:38:14
|
2024-02-11T15:34:01
|
2024-02-11T15:34:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XGa2ZzkMS0F3Tw4cGT9c
|
Will the S&P 500 (SP:SPX) close positive for the month of January 2024?
|
Resolves yes if the closing price of the monthly candle of the SPX is greater than the opening price.
I will use Tradingview (https://www.tradingview.com/) to assess the result after the last day of trading for the month.
|
2024-01-14T13:54:47
|
2024-01-31T12:00:00
|
2024-01-31T13:12:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZzsWcAALMW3JIduyjzSv
|
🏀 2023–24 NCAAM: Will a 14-seed team defeat a 3-seed team in March Madness?
|
This market should be resolved as soon as the four games in question are over.
March Madness Schedule:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-08-03/2024-march-madness-mens-ncaa-tournament-schedule-dates
Historical win rates by seed:
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/ncaab/2021/03/16/march-madness-numbers-ncaa-tournaments-historical-trends/4647793001/
Related Markets:
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-16seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-15seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-14seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-13seed-team-de
|
2024-01-14T12:07:25
|
2024-03-21T19:10:54
|
2024-03-21T19:10:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LstAWPTD2gDmWwanlD9d
|
🏀 2023–24 NCAAM: Will a 15-seed team defeat a 2-seed team in March Madness?
|
This market should be resolved as soon as the four games in question are over.
March Madness Schedule:
https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2023-08-03/2024-march-madness-mens-ncaa-tournament-schedule-dates
Historical win rates by seed:
https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/sports/ncaab/2021/03/16/march-madness-numbers-ncaa-tournaments-historical-trends/4647793001/
Related Markets:
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-16seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-15seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-14seed-team-de
@/jks/-202324-ncaam-will-a-13seed-team-de
|
2024-01-14T12:03:41
|
2024-03-22T21:57:10
|
2024-03-22T21:57:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tki7xnz0gQk26LfhRL6s
|
Will J.J. McCarthy be selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-14T10:32:29
|
2024-04-25T18:16:34
|
2024-04-25T18:16:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4VuChL77erEC6c3p6PG5
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before March 15th?
|
Congressional leaders have agreed to pass yet another laddered CR. The current plan is to extend government funding until March 1st for some agencies, and March 8th for others.
Will the US government shut down before 3/15/24?
Full shutdown definition, curtesy Metaculus:
This question resolves as Yes if credible sources report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a shutdown furlough of some federal employees (for example, the brief February 9, 2018 shutdown would not count).
If legislation is passed and signed into law which guarantees the US Government will be funded past March 15th, the market will resolve No early.
For more markets about the potential shutdown, see the Dashboard.
|
2024-01-14T10:29:52
|
2024-03-09T16:44:57
|
2024-03-09T16:44:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3OANhBJWVlLHFihqLzam
|
Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users in 2024?
|
Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like "GPT-4-lite" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users in 2024 under any of these conditions:
Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)
Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive).
Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.
Exclusion Criteria
Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.
Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.
Edge Cases
If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in December and ends in January 2025, it counts towards resolving this market as yes.
If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f?r=U29saQ)
|
2024-01-14T03:06:34
|
2024-05-15T01:53:14
|
2024-05-15T01:53:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5hQAlDfVllpvAEd017nE
|
Will OpenAI launch GPT-4.5 before February?
|
This RAS2024 market closes on 31 January 2024. Resolves to yes if GPT-4.5 becomes available by end of January 2024.
|
2024-01-14T01:03:01
|
2024-01-31T14:59:59
|
2024-02-01T02:24:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z1HByEFl2lecFH9TR9YW
|
Will the 2024 World Economic Forum in Davos yield new AI initiatives?
|
This RAS2024 market closes on 19 January 2024. Resolves to yes if corporations or governments announce for AI a large multilateral initiative like the edisonalliance.org, addressing concerns of accountability or explainability, for example
|
2024-01-14T00:58:26
|
2024-01-19T03:00:00
|
2024-01-19T08:41:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-weVOJqNGzqrBiKIx07p6
|
Will Trump win the New Hampshire primary?
|
This RAS2024 market closes on 23 January 2024 or if the candidate withdraws/gets barred. Resolves to yes if sos.nh.gov/elections shows him as gaining most GOP votes
|
2024-01-14T00:41:36
|
2024-01-23T01:00:00
|
2024-01-23T22:02:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wVe6u9MtlzGp4ojvFheN
|
Will the presidential election in Finland go to a runoff?
|
This RAS2024 market closes on 29 January 2024. Resolves to yes, if there is a second-round vote. Results are tallied on tulospalvelu.vaalit.fi/TPV-2024_1/en/lasktila.html
|
2024-01-14T00:39:42
|
2024-01-29T02:13:04
|
2024-01-29T02:13:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kE4MYZ1xuZ1mJtUPMmf3
|
Will Shanks and Blackbeard fight or at least have another confrontation by end of 2024?
|
Simple Yes or No
|
2024-01-14T00:29:11
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-13T11:28:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-unFuSCbNDtRmrqmHJrKA
|
Will Vivi join the strawhats on their remaining journey by the end of 2024?
|
Simple Yes or No...even if Vivi simply sails again with the strawhats by the end of 2024, the poll will resolve "Yes".
|
2024-01-14T00:27:27
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-13T11:28:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-08oxIPhO8j1fsJ6Hb1WS
|
Will Imu face reveal happen by the end of 2024?
|
Simple poll, answer "yes" if you think Imu's face will be completely shown (without silhouette) by the end of 2024 or "No" if you don't think so.
|
2024-01-14T00:23:03
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:36:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XX9axNkP8SBkIwJx6kDc
|
Will Humza Yousaf be First Minister of Scotland at the end of 2024?
|
Related:
[markets]
|
2024-01-14T00:05:55
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T16:03:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6U50U8LS4IsM9wnNoGhD
|
Will Jimmy Carter die during the 3nd week of 2024 (Jan 14-Jan 20)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 3nd week of 2024 (Jan 14 -Jan 20)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 3nd week of 2024 (Jan 14 -Jan 20)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2024-01-13T22:49:19
|
2024-01-20T20:59:00
|
2024-01-20T21:01:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F9851Mm2tDr4GtxxcMnP
|
Will Israel seize the Gaza border crossing to Egypt with force by the end of January?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T20:55:26
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T00:29:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JjwvKJiCe3P8XLHR9OXv
|
Will the US bomb sites in Iran in 2024
|
Any site within Iran that US military confirms
|
2024-01-13T20:35:00
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-21T14:21:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3AqeNIzECJfV6SmNgAv0
|
Will Destiny talk to Ben Shapiro during 2024? (again)
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-13T19:39:00
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:51:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9YrNWAraLfDkvT6KDeL3
|
Will Bitcoin be at over 50k by EOY 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T18:44:10
|
2024-02-12T22:01:23
|
2024-02-12T22:01:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zRLTwuQhTUij901u8ogS
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of April 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T18:18:02
|
2024-03-06T05:26:12
|
2024-03-06T05:26:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YfsB2p8m8tPPBJ5yVkkW
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024?
|
Relevant markets:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/when-will-nikki-haley-drop-out-from-a58cd86b4439)
drop out before Mar
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra
drop out before Apr
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/will-nikki-haley-drop-out-of-the-ra-710b1b67355e
|
2024-01-13T18:17:48
|
2024-03-01T05:25:03
|
2024-03-01T05:25:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3Tn9mS0ogZQlIror46ni
|
Will Nikki Haley drop out of the race for President before the end of Mar 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T18:17:36
|
2024-03-06T05:33:31
|
2024-03-06T07:27:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J7mfSxXxMwKE1YVqdYLn
|
Will a Canadian team win the 2024 Stanley Cup?
|
A Canadian team hasn’t won a Stanley Cup since the Montreal Canadiens won in 1993. Will this be the year Canada ends the drought?
|
2024-01-13T17:42:15
|
2024-06-27T20:34:28
|
2024-06-27T20:34:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2kMT6Qfj8WpbUQ8rROWY
|
Will an ETH ETF get approved in 2024?
|
Spot ETF
|
2024-01-13T17:42:10
|
2024-05-24T14:05:24
|
2024-05-24T14:05:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-888l4owMcYyWN6M0iFDW
|
Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the race for President before the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T17:08:09
|
2024-01-21T13:27:32
|
2024-01-21T13:27:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mnKztiZUMcUl48N3tMl4
|
Will July 2024 be the hottest July on record in the US?
|
Resolves according to NOAA monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-13T16:47:40
|
2024-08-12T20:06:23
|
2024-08-12T20:06:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tTziL1wrZVOuRwPqF6qS
|
Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record in the US?
|
Resolves according to NOAA monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-13T16:47:27
|
2024-07-02T15:59:00
|
2024-07-18T10:34:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0krRZuDueOvWPxfvP7HD
|
Will April 2024 be the hottest April on record in the US?
|
Resolves according to NOAA monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-13T16:47:00
|
2024-05-10T11:02:40
|
2024-05-10T11:02:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qaCtmqVBMdYBWdUbejA8
|
Will March 2024 be the hottest March on record in the US?
|
Resolves according to NOAA monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-13T16:46:47
|
2024-04-09T10:41:18
|
2024-04-09T10:41:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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