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meta-29073
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift officially announce their engagement before January 1, 2025?
|
The Mirror (UK): [Fans think Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged after spotting string of clues](https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/fans-think-taylor-swift-travis-33819671)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift are publicly known to be engaged to each other. If there are no such reports, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T19:14:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29072
|
Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before January 1, 2025?
|
According to Wikipedia, "North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [International Monitoring System’s ](https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/detecting-nuclear-tests) and Wikipedia's [List of nuclear weapons tests of North Korea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_weapons_tests_of_North_Korea).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:49:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29071
|
Will the USDA-posted recall of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products issued September 27, 2024 be closed before December 31, 2024?
|
According to the USDA: "JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains soy, a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc--recalls-ready-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-due-misbranding-and) is accessed by Metaculus after December 31, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29070
|
Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025?
|
Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.Spirit AIrlines recently had to [extend the deadline](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/spirit-airlines-shares-tick-down-on-deadline-extension-to-complete-debt-renegotiations-c5e29f61?mod=mw_quote_news) of some of its debt due.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if Spirit Airlines, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before January 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-18T19:59:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29069
|
Will Spotify remove rapper Diddy's songs from Diddy's Spotify page before January 1, 2025?
|
Time Magazine September 20, 2024: [Diddy’s in Exile. Here’s What Could Happen to His Music Now](https://time.com/7023138/sean-diddy-combs-music-back-catalog/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if rapper Sean "Diddy" Combs no longer has music at his Spotify page, which can currently be found at [this location](https://open.spotify.com/artist/59wfkuBoNyhDMQGCljbUbA). If there is still music by Diddy available at that page when accessed by Metaculus on or after January 2, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If there no longer is a Spotify profile page for Diddy at all, this question resolves as **No**. For purposes of this question, any stage name known to refer to Combs, such as "Diddy" or "Puff Daddy" will count.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29068
|
Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than 1.0 percentage points?
|
Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \).
[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly greater than 1.0 pp.
This will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T17:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29067
|
Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to 0 percentage points and less than or equal to 1.0 percentage points?
|
Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \).
[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is greater than or equal to 0 pp and less than or equal to 1.0 pp.
This will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T17:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29066
|
Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than -1.0 and less than 0 percentage points?
|
Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \).
[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly greater than -1.0 pp and strictly less than 0 pp.
This will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T17:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29065
|
Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to -2.0 and less than or equal to -1.0 percentage points?
|
Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \).
[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is greater than or equal to -2.0 pp and less than or equal to -1.0 pp.
This will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T17:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29064
|
Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be less than -2.0 percentage points?
|
Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual election resulted in 51.31% votes for Biden and 46.85% for Trump, a -4.46pp spread. Trump's polling bias was then \(-6pp-(-4.46pp) = -1.54pp \).
[FiveThirtyEight](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/2022-election-polling-accuracy/) estimated a polling bias of +4.1pp for the Biden in 2020 and +3.3pp for Clinton in 2016. However, it found almost no weighted-average polling bias in the 2022 midterm election. The "shy Trump voter hypothesis" suggests one possible reason for the bias in 2016 and 2020 is that Trump voters were reluctant to respond or respond accurately to the polls. Authors from [The Washington Post](https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2020/11/02/shy-trump-voters-myth/), [Vox](https://www.vox.com/2020/11/1/21544644/shy-trump-voters-polling-error-explained), and others have questioned this hypothesis.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump's national polling bias when using the October 17 [RealClear Polling (RCP) average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris) of a -1.583 percentage point spread (Trump) is strictly less than -2.0 pp.
This will be calculated as -1.583 percentage points (pp), minus Trump's popular vote percentage (expressed in pp), plus Harris' popular vote percentage (in pp).
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-17T17:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29039
|
Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?
|
Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.
Challengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.
Will Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Botswana Democratic Party wins at least 31 of the 61 seats up for election on October 30, 2024, according to the [Independent Electoral Commission](https://www.iec.gov.bw/) or Metaculus' [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question pertains exclusively to the elected seats. Appointed and *ex officio* seats will not affect the resolution.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-01T15:50:29Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29038
|
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?
|
Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.
At the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by "first past the post" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party is reported by the Japanese electoral authority or by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as having won 233 seats or more in the October 2024 elections for the House of Representatives.
Fine Print: Any alliances the LDP might make before or after the election does not affect this question, which refers strictly to the number of LDP's own Representatives in the House.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T19:17:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29037
|
Will IBM lower its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025?
|
IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if IBM's posted "starting at" price for Pay-as-you-go quantum computing is less than $96 USD / minute at [this link](https://www.ibm.com/quantum/pricing) when accessed by Metaculus on or around January 1, 2025. If the price is greater than or equal to that price, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. The question will resolve as soon as the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on the resolution date. However, if there are issues accessing the page, then resolution will wait up to January 7, 2025, at which point if Metaculus has still not been able to access the resolution source, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29013
|
Will Tesla deliver more than 450,000 vehicles in Q4 2024?
|
In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 450,000 vehicles delivered for the fourth quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 450,000 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected January 2, 2025. If Tesla does not report these numbers before January 16, 2025, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-03T23:23:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29012
|
Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 205% before November 15, 2024?
|
In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.
>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.
>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.
Astute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before November 15, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 205%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 205%, this question resolves as No.
The figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of October 21, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 202.52 for October 17, 2024.
Fine Print: The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 205% only if it reaches a value of 205.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 205 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 204.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 205%.
In cases in which the chart might show 205.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 205.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.
If the numbers through November 15, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until November 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through November 15, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers.
If the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-14T14:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29011
|
Will US airline passenger volume for the Veterans Day weekend of 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA?
|
Veterans Day in the US is [federal holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States) and is a celebrated on November 11th, regardless of the day of the week upon which it falls. In 2023 it fell on a Saturday, and in 2024 it will fall on a Monday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if total passenger volume for the Veterans Day travel weekend of 2024, which we define as the sum of the passenger figures for the five day period of Friday November 8, 2024, through Tuesday November 12, 2024 exceed the equivalent Veterans Day travel weekend of 2023, which we define as the five day period of Friday, November 10, 2023 through Tuesday November 14, 2023. The resolution source is the TSA checkpoint travel numbers, which can be found at [this link](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes) for 2024. The archived 2023 TSA passenger volume numbers can be found [here](https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes/2023).
The five days of November 10, 2023 through November 14, 2023, had respective passenger numbers of 2,591,818, 2,025,517, 2,683,745, 2,533,300, and 2,035,761, for a total of 11,870,141. Therefore, this question resolves as **Yes** if passenger volume for the five-day Veterans Day travel period for 2024 exceeds 11,870,141 and resolves as **No** if it is less than or equal to 11,870,141.
Fine Print: The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted and accessed by Metaculus Admins. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to the end of the quarter to be posted for the time in question. If it has not been posted as of January 7, 2025, when accessed by Admins, this question will be **annulled**.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-13T19:49:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29010
|
On October 31, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?
|
Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.
On May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves Yes if, on October 31, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).
Fine Print: * If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T18:52:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29009
|
Will Doug Pederson cease to be the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach before January 1, 2025?
|
After an early losing streak to begin the 2024-25 NFL season, some have [speculated](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-doug-pederson-get-fired-jaguars-coach-hot-seat/8e9d16305862870ef416857f) that Pederson might be fired by Jaguars owner Shad Khan, although the question might be timing.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2025, Doug Pederson is no longer head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the official Jaguars website [coaches page](https://www.jaguars.com/team/coaches-roster/). Otherwise this question resolves as **No.**
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:43:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29008
|
Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024?
|
According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chicago Board Options Exchange's CBOE Volatility Index, a popular measure of the stock market's expectation of volatility based on S&P 500 index options. It is calculated and disseminated on a real-time basis by the CBOE, and is often referred to as the fear index or fear gauge." This question specificially looks at the 3-month version of the Vix.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed at [this link](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS). The reported number for October 30, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on October 30, 2023, which at the time of this question was 20.80.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question. Later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-04T19:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-29007
|
Will Nippon Steel acquire US Steel before January 1, 2025?
|
According to a press release dated September 19, 2024, US Steel's president and CEO said, "We continue to progress through the U.S. regulatory reviews of the pending transaction with Nippon Steel, and are confident in our ability to achieve these approvals. We continue to work towards closing the transaction by the end of the year." However, the aquisition has recently been [held up](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/17/us/politics/us-steel-nippon-steel-deal.html) due to national security reviews from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, which may delay closing of the transaction into 2025 or even cause the transaction to be cancelled.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Nippon Steel or US Steel issue a press release or any other posts saying that Nippon Steel has acquired US Steel, at the following respective news link pages: [Nippon Steel news](https://www.nipponsteel.com/en/news/) and [US Steel news](https://investors.ussteel.com/news-events/news-releases) when accessed by Metaculus Admins on or after January 1, 2025. As a secondary resolution source, Metaculus Admins will use US Steel's SEC filings at [this](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001163302&owner=exclude) EDGAR link.
If no such press release is found at either news page, and there is no posted SEC filing at the link from US Steel indicating the acquisition has occurred, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If either news release site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If the resolution source links remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the companies discontinuing their news sections or changing the URL and not auto-forwarding to the new page), and the secondary resolution source link remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the SEC discontinuing its "Classic version"), this question resolves as No.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28999
|
Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2025?
|
From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling books in the United States. It has been published weekly in The New York Times Book Review since October 12, 1931. In the 21st century, it has evolved into multiple lists, grouped by genre and format, including fiction and non-fiction, hardcover, paperback and electronic.
Resolution Criteria: A book is said to have been written by a language model if a language model wrote at least 99% of the text contained in the main section in the book, excluding a potential foreword, copyright notice, table of contents, and other non-essential book sections. The main text must also contain at least 20,000 words. Stylistic edits by humans are allowed if they do not change the basic semantic meaning of any sentence, or they merely correct basic spelling, grammatical, or formatting mistakes. Admins will use their discretion, in consultation with the community, to determine whether any candidate book meets the spirit of these conditions.
This question resolves positively if the above conditions are met before 2025, and negatively otherwise.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-02T02:21:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28998
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war before January 1, 2025?
|
In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war.
Currently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war before January 1, 2025. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using [strategic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_nuclear_weapon) and [tactical](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tactical_nuclear_weapon) nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.
Fine Print: [Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:
>In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.
>In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.
>In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T20:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28997
|
Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2025?
|
In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose.
These senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.
Senescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).
One major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial.
You can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before January 1, 2025. The approval must be given before January 1, 2025, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.
For the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a "'senolytic therapy" if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.
This question will resolve as No if no such therapy is approved before January 1, 2025. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as Annulled.
|
2024-10-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-22T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28974
|
[Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election?
|
Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botswana-to-hold-elections-october-30-as-president-masisi-seeks-2nd-term-/7770173.html), with former President Festus Mogae winning the [Ibrahim Prize for African Leadership](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibrahim_Prize), awarded only to leaders who respect democracy and the rule of law. The BDP's vote pluralities are often magnified into seat majorities by the first-past-the-post voting method.
Challengers to the BDP's dominance include the [Umbrella for Democratic Change](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Umbrella_for_Democratic_Change) coalition as well as its former member the [Botswana Congress Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Congress_Party). The only [opinion poll results](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Botswana_general_election#Opinion_polls) seem to come from Afrobarometer in 2022, showing the BDP's 22.3% trailing the UDC's 37.5%, with 7.9% for the BCP.
Will Africa's longest democracy continue choosing the party that has always led it, or choose change this time around?
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Botswana Democratic Party wins at least 31 of the 61 seats up for election on October 30, 2024, according to the [Independent Electoral Commission](https://www.iec.gov.bw/) or Metaculus' [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question pertains exclusively to the elected seats. Appointed and *ex officio* seats will not affect the resolution.
|
2024-10-21T22:29:00Z
|
2024-10-30T04:00:00Z
|
2024-11-01T10:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28972
|
[Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election?
|
Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-pay) after his predecessor Fumio Kishida resigned from the leadership of Japan's dominant Liberal Democratic Party due to a corruption scandal.
At the time of dissolution, the LDP held 247 of the House's 465 seats. [Opinion polls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_Japanese_general_election) show the party with a comfortable lead at around 1/3 of the vote; the [parallel voting system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election#Electoral_system) used in Japan, where 5/8 of the seats are elected by "first past the post" and the remainder by proportional representation, might translate that vote into a majority depending on how it is distributed around the country.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the Liberal Democratic Party is reported by the Japanese electoral authority or by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) as having won 233 seats or more in the October 2024 elections for the House of Representatives.
Fine Print: Any alliances the LDP might make before or after the election does not affect this question, which refers strictly to the number of LDP's own Representatives in the House.
|
2024-10-21T22:15:00Z
|
2024-10-26T21:00:00Z
|
2024-10-28T07:27:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28917
|
Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason?
|
This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be halted for any reason?
The [2024 US Presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2024) will be held on 5 November 2024 between Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican nominee former president Donald Trump. The election will be the 60th of its kind since 1788–89.
Instead of a direct popular vote, US presidents are elected via [the Electoral College](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about#:~:text=The%20Electoral%20College%20consists%20of,of%20Representatives%20plus%20two%20Senators.), a system whereby the president is determined by the number of electors they win from each state plus Washington, DC. There are 538 electors in total, with the number attributed to each state determined by the size of its House of Representatives in addition to two Senators. When a presidential candidate wins a state, they usually take all its electoral votes, with the candidate who wins at least 270 winning the presidency.
The results in a presidential election go through a process of [reporting, canvassing, and certifying](https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/election-results-canvass-and-certification) for them to be validated. On the state level, this begins with the publication of unofficial results after the polls close and until all the ballots are counted; the election is then “canvassed” until all the election data is aggregated; finally, the results are “certified” when election officials issue a written statement attesting that the election results are a true and accurate accounting of all votes cast.
[Following this](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/about), the newly formed Electoral College typically meets in their respective state capital between December 14 and 20 to cast their votes. These votes are then sent to Congress for final certification during a joint session the following year on January 6.
In the past, attempts have been made to delay certification on the state level. Although ultimately unsuccessful, [the 2020 fake electors](https://www.justsecurity.org/81939/timeline-false-electors/) plot shows this.
By contrast, only once in US history has certification by Congress been delayed. This occurred when [Trump supporters stormed the United States Capitol Building](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/January_6_United_States_Capitol_attack) on January 6, 2021 in an attempt to prevent the joint session of Congress from counting the Electoral College and confirming Joe Biden as the winner of the 2020 US Presidential election. The delay only lasted one day before the results were certified on January 7, 2021.
The efforts undertaken to overturn the 2020 election were unprecedented and remain a topic of significant controversy. Donald Trump, for example, has continued to claim that the 2020 election was “stolen” by the Democratic Party while the former president and many leading Republicans have also declined to commit to accepting the results of the 2024 election, with some, such as Marco Rubio, outright refusing if they suspect “foul play”. Accordingly, the prospect is raised that the certification of the 2024 US presidential election may be delayed.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the certification of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election is not completed before January 7, 2025, for any reason. This includes, but is not limited to, formal objections raised during the certification process, legal injunctions, procedural delays, or significant disruptions such as the storming of the Capitol.
This question will resolve as **No** if the certification is completed before January 7, 2025.
Fine Print: The time zone of this question is Eastern Time (ET).
The process for an objection to halt the certification is the following:
- A member of the House of Representatives raises a formal objection to a state’s electoral votes.
- That objection must be joined by at least one senator for it to be considered valid.
- If such an objection occurs, the joint session of Congress is be suspended and each chamber separately debates the objection for a maximum of two hours.
|
2024-10-22T22:03:00Z
|
2025-01-06T04:59:00Z
|
2025-01-07T21:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28906
|
Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election?
|
[The Joe Rogan Experience](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joe_Rogan_Experience) (JRE) is a podcast hosted by [Joe Rogan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rogan) a comedian, actor, and commentator. Joe Rogan's [website](https://www.joerogan.com/) describes the JRE as:
>a long form conversation hosted by comedian Joe Rogan with friends and guests that have included comedians, actors, musicians, MMA fighters, authors, artists, and beyond.
The JRE has been very popular ranking as the most popular podcast of the year on Spotify for the years 2021, [2022](https://variety.com/2022/digital/news/joe-rogan-spotify-top-podcast-2022-1235444743/), and [2023](https://variety.com/2023/digital/news/spotify-top-podcasts-2023-list-joe-rogan-deal-renewal-1235809680/). Its listeners are disproportionally [young men](https://business.yougov.com/content/47483-whos-listening-to-the-joe-rogan-experience-men-mostly), and it has developed a mixed reputation, [criticized by some](https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/10/opinions/joe-rogan-myth-spotify-joseph/index.html) for peddling conspiracies and offensive content, and praised by others for a commitment to [free speech](https://theoccidentalnews.com/opinions/2019/10/21/joe-rogans-podcast-reiterates-the-importance-of-free-speech/2898978) through talking openly about controversial issues and for the breadth of topics covered and the [curiosity](https://danielmiessler.com/p/explaining-the-popularity-of-joe-rogans-podcast/) of its host.
On October 15, 2024, news sources [reported](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/kamala-harris-could-join-podcaster-joe-rogan-an-interview-sources-2024-10-15/) that Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris may be considering an appearance on the show in a bid to appeal to young men, citing unnamed sources.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, the date of the US general election, a Joe Rogan Experience episode featuring Kamala Harris is publicly released.
Fine Print: Previews or subscriber-only content will not be sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**.
|
2024-10-16T15:03:00Z
|
2024-10-27T02:00:00Z
|
2024-11-05T22:58:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28903
|
Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025?
|
North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted in 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted five more tests, with [the last one](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_North_Korean_nuclear_test) taking place in 2017 and having a max yield between 50 and 260 kilotons.
Recent reports suggest that North Korea is planning a seventh nuclear test to coincide with the 2024 US Presidential Election. According to [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-26/north-korea-looking-at-nuke-test-near-us-vote-spy-agency-says):
> Detonating a nuclear device would send a strong signal that no matter who wins the US presidential race, North Korea will press ahead with its atomic ambitions as it develops weapons that have the ability to strike America and its allies.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if North Korea conducts a nuclear test after October 15, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
If no such reports are available before January 7, 2025, this question will resolve **No**.
Fine Print: Note that this question closes on November 8, 2024.
For purposes of this question, "nuclear test" is [defined](https://www.ctbto.org/resources/information-materials/frequently-asked-questions) as "controlled detonations carried out to assess a weapon's performance or to advance nuclear weapons technology." If there is no nuclear detonation, such as in a [subcritical](https://lasg.org/archive/1998/subcritical.htm) test, this will not count.
|
2024-10-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-08T23:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T13:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28858
|
Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025?
|
This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Tiktok be banned in the US or sold?
In 2020, the [Trump administration issued an executive order aiming to ban TikTok in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok_v._Trump#:~:text=On%20August%206%2C%202020%2C%20Donald,on%20the%20information%20TikTok%20collects.), citing national security concerns over its parent company, ByteDance, which is based in China. The administration claimed that TikTok [could collect data on U.S. users and potentially share it with the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2023/06/08/tech/tiktok-data-china/index.html) under China’s national security laws. The proposed ban led to a heated legal battle, and TikTok responded by negotiating a potential sale of its U.S. operations to American companies like Oracle and Walmart, though these [deals were never finalized](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/17/tiktok-sale-ban-challenges/).
While Trump’s 2020 executive order was [halted later that year by a federal judge](https://www.npr.org/2020/12/07/944039053/u-s-judge-halts-trumps-tiktok-ban-the-2nd-court-to-fully-block-the-action?t=1609087334425), and [rescinded by President Biden in 2021](https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/22/tech/tiktok-trump-ban-dismissed/index.html), the battle between the U.S. government and TikTok continued. In 2023, Biden signed a separate bill into law that would [force a sale of TikTok by Jan. 19, 2025 or see it banned](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/tech/congress-tiktok-ban-what-next/index.html), sparking a legal battle that has carried into 2024. [TikTok has been fighting the law in court](https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981https://www.nbcnews.com/business/tiktok-ban-bill-why-congress-when-takes-effect-rcna148981), arguing that it unfairly targets the app and violates the First Amendment rights of its 170 million U.S. users. TikTok's legal team, led by Andrew Pincus, [contends that the government must meet 'strict scrutiny' standards](https://www.wesa.fm/2024-09-16/tiktok-argued-against-its-u-s-ban-in-court-today-heres-what-happened), meaning it must provide a compelling reason for a ban and prove that all other options have been exhausted. The government, represented by Department of Justice lawyer Daniel Tenny, claims that [TikTok’s vast data collection poses a national security risk, potentially allowing foreign adversaries to exploit the data](https://www.npr.org/2024/09/16/g-s1-23194/tiktok-us-ban-appeals-court). Meanwhile, [TikTok creators have also joined the legal fight, asserting that users have the right to engage with foreign-owned platforms](https://www.tubefilter.com/2024/05/15/creators-sue-united-states-tiktok-ban-federal-court-case/), similar to how Americans interact with entities like Al-Jazeera or Spotify.
Despite this, fears over Chinese influence and the potential misuse of U.S. citizens’ personal data remains at the center of the debate. [Several U.S. states have already implemented partial bans](https://www.nytimes.com/article/tiktok-ban.html#:~:text=More%20than%2030%20states%2C%20and,data%20to%20use%20the%20app.), especially on government devices. Internationally, TikTok has faced similar scrutiny, with countries like [India fully banning the app in 2020](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/14/tech/india-us-tiktok-ban-analysis-intl-hnk/index.html), while the [European Union continues to investigate its data practices under GDPR](https://www.reuters.com/technology/eu-opens-formal-proceedings-against-tiktok-under-digital-services-act-2024-02-19/).
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve as Yes if, before January 20, 2025, TikTok is either banned from operating in the United States or the US-facing components of TikTok are sold to a non-Chinese entity.
For TikTok to be considered banned in the US, the app has to be either unavailable to use or unavailable to download from both the iOS App Store and the Google Play Store. Either of these two conditions have to hold true for 30 consecutive days, starting before January 19.
For TikTok's US-facing components to be considered sold, all the following conditions must be met:
- Majority Ownership or Control: ByteDance must transfer a majority ownership stake or operational control of TikTok’s US operations to a non-Chinese entity.
- Completion of Deal: The deal must be finalized, with all necessary legal and regulatory approvals obtained from U.S. authorities and any required Chinese government approvals or any additional federal or state regulatory approvals relevant to the sale, including those related to telecommunications or foreign investment.
- Public Confirmation: The deal must be confirmed through official statements from ByteDance or relevant U.S. government agencies or through official press releases published on government websites.
|
2024-10-18T16:48:00Z
|
2025-01-19T14:05:00Z
|
2025-02-17T01:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28855
|
Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025?
|
[Erik ten Hag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_ten_Hag)'s tenure as Manchester United's manager, which began in 2022, has seen a mix of highs and lows. After a successful first season where the team secured a top-four finish and [won the EFL Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_EFL_Cup_final), United's form in the 2024/25 season has sharply declined. The club has experienced its worst-ever start to a Premier League season, [sitting 14th in the table](https://www.manutd.com/en/matches/league-table) as of October 13th, and they have struggled to score goals, leading to significant pressure on Ten Hag.
In an October meeting, it [was decided](https://uk.news.yahoo.com/erik-ten-hag-break-golden-060000505.html) that Erik Ten Hag will continue in Manchester United for the time being. However, the next few games will be crucial and they might determine whether Ten Hag will be fired during the next international break of November 11-19.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, Erik Ten Hag has stopped being Manchester United's manager, according to credible sources. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: A temporary absence will not resolve this question as **Yes**, as long as it is announced as such and Erik Ten Hag has resumed his duties as manager before January 7, 2025.
If Ten Hag stops being Manchester United's manager, but is assigned to another role, this question will resolve **Yes** as long as another individual is chosen as the club's manager before January 7, 2025. If no one is chosen as the manager, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
Note that this question has an early closing date of November 11, 2024.
|
2024-10-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-11-11T12:00:00Z
|
2024-10-28T06:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28854
|
Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?
|
The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 15, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, at least one Member of the UK Parliament gets suspended from their party, resigns, or changes their allegiance, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: - Any change of allegiance, voluntary or not, will resolve this question as **Yes**, including but not limited to an independent MP becoming a member of a party.
- Only party allegiance is relevant for this question. An MP joining or leaving a technical group will not affect resolution in any way.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2024-10-27T17:15:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28852
|
[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?
|
On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.
The campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.
In order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of "Yes" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that enough votes have been cast in the referendum to make it valid.
Fine Print: [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Moldovan_European_Union_membership_referendum) reports the threshold as a minimum of 33%; regardless if that, 1/3, or a different value is the exact amount, what matters for this question is that the threshold for validity is met.
The actual numbers of "Yes" and "No" votes are immaterial to this question; it resolves as **Yes** as long as the turnout meets that which is required for a valid referendum, even if most voters choose "No".
|
2024-10-16T11:00:00Z
|
2024-10-20T01:00:00Z
|
2024-10-21T08:11:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28851
|
[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?
|
On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.
The campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.
In order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that more votes have been cast for the "Yes" option than the "No" option in the referendum.
Fine Print: Turnout is immaterial to the resolution, as are blank/spoiled ballots. The primary source for resolution will be the national election authority, with credible sources also accepted.
|
2024-10-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-20T01:00:00Z
|
2024-10-22T02:21:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28841
|
Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?
|
[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.
Following [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.
Eric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign.
A [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no credible reports or official announcements of the resignation or removal of Eric Adams from the position of the Mayor of New York City before the 1st of January, 2025.
Fine Print: The suspension of the mayor by the governor is not sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the mayor is suspended at the time of resolution.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T16:59:00Z
|
2025-01-01T21:09:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28834
|
Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?
|
The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.
As of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.
The match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played.
In chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.
The time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if either player in the 2024 World Chess Championship match reaches 7.5 points before the 11th classical game (e.g. by winning 5 games and drawing another 5).
This question will also resolve as **Yes** if for any other reason the 2024 Chess Champion is declared by FIDE before the 11th classical game is played (e.g. a player forteits the match or is disqualified during the match).
Fine Print: * If the match is played by any other players than Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju, the question will be **Annulled**.
* If the result of the game 10 is not known by 7 January 2025 (and the 2024 Chess Champion is still not declared by that date) the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.
* If the results of one or more of the first 10 games are annulled, then these games are not included in the count of the games for the resolution. This includes the case when both players receive 0 points for the game for violating Fair Play policy.
* If the 2024 Chess Champion title is later revoked (e.g. due to revealed fact of cheating), it will not affect the question resolution.
|
2024-11-07T15:30:00Z
|
2024-12-04T11:00:00Z
|
2024-12-01T13:15:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28829
|
What is the probability that a Westbound Amtrak Sunset Limited train reports a delay of more than 4 hours upon arriving at its terminus before the 10:00 AM on 10/24?
|
https://juckins.net/amtrak_status/archive/html/history.php?train_num=1&station=LAX&date_start=09%2F9%2F2024&date_end=10%2F10%2F2024&df1=1&df2=1&df3=1&df4=1&df5=1&df6=1&df7=1&sort=schAr&sort_dir=DESC&co=gt&limit_mins=&dfon=1
Resolution Criteria: Resolves by: https://juckins.net/amtrak_status/archive/html/history.php?train_num=1&station=LAX&date_start=09%2F9%2F2024&date_end=10%2F10%2F2024&df1=1&df2=1&df3=1&df4=1&df5=1&df6=1&df7=1&sort=schAr&sort_dir=DESC&co=gt&limit_mins=&dfon=1
|
2024-10-10T23:02:00Z
|
2024-10-20T23:02:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28826
|
Odds Dan wins in fantasy this week (week of 10/7).
|
dan really thought the bills would win...
Resolution Criteria: Resolves from screenshot from Dan.
|
2024-10-10T22:54:00Z
|
2024-10-12T14:00:00Z
|
2024-10-14T22:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28823
|
Probability that CPax sends an email from president@brown.edu by the next meeting (10/24)?
|
It has to be from that specific email address!
Resolution Criteria: The email has to be to anybody, not just to you LMAO
|
2024-10-10T22:49:00Z
|
2024-10-17T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-24T21:45:12Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28821
|
Probability APMA 1650 (Amelia Culiuc) exam results gets released by 10/24?
|
APMA 1650 is a big class...
Resolution Criteria: Resolved by Gradescope or Canvas
|
2024-10-01T22:48:00Z
|
2024-10-20T22:46:00Z
|
2024-10-24T14:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28819
|
Probability of any police being called to end a student protest by OCT 24th
|
Protests?
Resolution Criteria: Resolved by article from BDH
|
2024-10-10T22:44:00Z
|
2024-10-20T22:44:00Z
|
2024-10-24T21:45:13Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28787
|
Will Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities before the 2024 US general election?
|
As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, foreign policy analysts are now speculating about whether Israel will decide to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in an effort to set back Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tried](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/07/us/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-strikes.html) to dissuade its partner from doing so.
Resolution Criteria: Any Israeli attack on an Iranian nuclear facility—even if it does minimal damage—will resolve this question in the affirmative.
|
2024-10-08T14:51:00Z
|
2024-11-05T07:01:00Z
|
2024-11-05T12:18:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28783
|
Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024?
|
Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!
Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at all. Neither do all Russians celebrate Christmas in December. These differences are irrelevant for the question, which is focused on Christmas as celebrated by most cultures around the northern Atlantic.
----
This question uses METAR data as the source for convenience, because it provides a standardised view into actual observed weather at diverse geographical locations. Here's an example of a METAR report:
> METAR UUEE 050800Z 28003MPS 240V320 7000 -SN SCT006 M11/M13 Q1018 R24L/490336 R24C/490336 NOSIG=
The standard allows for many optional components, but common components are
- The reporting station (in this case UUEE, which is a Moscow airport) comes after the preamble
- the day and time of observation (in this case 050800Z meaning day 5 of the month, at 8 o'clock UTC)
- wind speed and direction (in this case 28003MPS meaning 280°, 3 m/s)
- visibility (in this case 7000 meaning 7000 metres)
- cloud cover (in this case SCT006 meaning scattered at 600 feet)
- temperature (in this case M11/M13 meaning temperature of -11 °C)
- air pressure (in this case Q1018 meaning 1018 millibar)
- runway information, starting with R
- a near-term forecast (in this case NOSIG meaning no significant change expected)
But! Critically for this question, there are also indications of precipitation. In the example above, that's "-SN" for "light snow".
Here are some other examples of reports indicating snow:
> METAR ESSA 270120Z 01005KT 9999 -SN SCT007 BKN009 OVC046 M05/M06 Q1010 RESN BECMG BKN020=`
RESN means "recent snow"
> METAR ESNU 252220Z 33009KT 9999 SG FEW018 OVC055 M03/M05 Q1003=
SG means "snow grains"
> METAR EFOU 041820Z AUTO 14003KT 9999 -SHSN SCT044 M13/M15 Q1013=
-SHSN means "light snow shower"
For decoding reports, [the web tool by Flight Plan Database](https://flightplandatabase.com/METAR) can be a helpful assistant.
Resolution Criteria: The 10 largest cities in Europe [according to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_cities_by_population_within_city_limits#Largest_cities) are
- Istanbul
- Moscow
- London
- Saint Petersburg
- Berlin
- Madrid
- Kyiv
- Rome
- Bucharest
- Paris
For this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.
Each of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow. The selection will be set to begin at hour 0 UTC on the 24th and end at hour 23 UTC on the 25th.
If four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as **Yes**. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: To determine whether there has been precipitation in these cities, the [Ogimet METAR](http://www.ogimet.com/metars.phtml.en) historic data for the dates given above will be consulted. If that source is down, a similar one will be located. If none can be found with reasonable effort, the question resolves Ambiguous.
The lookup will be made for the following airports (corresponding to the cities listed above, excluding Kyiv): LTFM, UUEE, EGLL, ULLI, EDDB, LEMD, LIRF, LROP, LFPG. Any reference to snow (SN), snow grains (SG), snow pellets (SP or GS), or snow shower (SW) will count as there being precipitation in the form of snow.
|
2024-10-30T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-15T23:00:00Z
|
2024-12-26T05:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28748
|
Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal?
|
Anitta ganhou o Grammy Latino de Album do Ano em 2024 [Grammy Latino 2024](https://www.grammy.com/news/2024-latin-grammys-nominations-record-of-the-year).
Resolution Criteria: Website oficial do Grammy
|
2024-10-07T17:58:00Z
|
2024-11-08T07:59:00Z
|
2024-11-08T15:20:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28733
|
[Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly?
|
Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier, from the Republicans party, faces a [no-confidence vote](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/french-left-moves-no-confidence-vote-against-barnier-with-little-hope-it-passes/) filed on October 4th by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP).
The snap legislative elections held on June 30 and July 7 saw the far-right National Rally (RN) win a plurality of votes; however, tactical voting by supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance and NFP denied Marine Le Pen's RN a plurality of seats, with 1/3 of total seats going to the left-wing bloc.
NFP claims this gave them a mandate to implement their full program, which President Macron disagreed with, refusing to appoint the Front's preferred Prime Ministerial candidate Lucie Castets without some compromise with the center's positions. ([Le Monde](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/08/27/french-left-denounces-denial-of-democracy-after-macron-refuses-to-appoint-its-candidate-as-pm_6722295_7.html))
Subsequent talks between the Élysée Palace and each parliamentary party led to the appointment of center-right Michel Barnier, formerly the chief Brexit negotiator on the EU side, as Prime Minister. The semi-presidential system in France does not require an explicit vote of confidence in a new occupant of Hôtel Matignon, but they can be forced to resign by a vote of no confidence that passes in the National Assembly. The vote against Mr Barnier will likely take place on October 8.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the vote of no confidence succeeds, according to the criteria in place in the French Constitution and National Assembly procedural rules.
Fine Print: The [National Assembly](https://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/) shall be the main source for resolution, with [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) being a valid alternative.
The question may resolve at any time the outcome of the vote is known, with the relatively late resolution date being set to accommodate eventual reschedulings or other procedural manoeuvers.
|
2024-10-06T13:40:00Z
|
2024-10-08T05:30:00Z
|
2024-10-08T19:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28706
|
Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024?
|
[Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Besides general rankings, Chatbot Arena has added various more narrow categories, such as Hard Prompts, Instruction Following, or Math.
In September 12, 2024, OpenAI [announced](https://openai.com/o1/) o1, a series of models [trained](https://openai.com/index/learning-to-reason-with-llms/) to use chain of thought to solve complex problems. According to OpenAI, o1 models perform significantly better in math and coding competitions, among other domains. As of October 4, 2024, o1-preview is ranked #1 in all Chatbot Arena categories.
For further context please see:
- [Chatbot Arena: New models & Elo system update](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-12-07-leaderboard/)
- [Does style matter? Disentangling style and substance in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-08-28-style-control/)
- [Introducing Hard Prompts Category in Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2024-05-17-category-hard/)
Resolution Criteria: This questions resolves as **Yes** if a single o1 model has the same or higher rank than all non-o1 models in all of the following 9 categories on [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/), on December 30, 2024:
- Overall
- Overall w/ Style Control
- Hard Prompts (Overall)
- Hard Prompts (Overall) w/ Style Control
- Instruction Following
- Coding
- Math
- Multi-turn
- Longer Query
If all o1 models have at least one category in which they are worse than a non-o1 model, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: - For the purposes of this question, a model having no rank in a category means it is worse than all models that have a rank.
- Other models also being ranked 1 do not affect resolution, as long as a single o1 model is also ranked 1.
- An OpenAI model counts as an o1 model if it contains "o1" in its name on Chatbot Arena.
- Any categories that are no longer available on Chatbot Arena will not affect resolution, as long as they are fewer than 4. If at least 4 of the aforementioned 9 categories are not available, this question will be **annulled**.
- Any categories that are renamed but have the same methodology will be considered equivalent for purposes of this question.
- As of October 4, 2024, the relevant ranks are presented in both the Overview tab and in the Arena tab, by selecting the relevant category and potentially applying the required filter.
|
2024-10-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-29T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T11:41:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28704
|
Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025?
|
BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the Leon Levy Foundation, and Amazon Web Services, among others. Its mission is, according to the [Audubon Society](https://www.audubon.org/news/how-get-most-out-birdcasts-migration-forecasts), to forecast "the intensity of overnight bird migration across the continental United States, displaying waves of migratory birds on a series of easy-to-read forecast maps."
On the night of October 6-7, 2023, the United States experienced the first billion bird night reported by BirdCast, with Dr. Andrew Farnsworth of The Cornell Lab [posting](https://birdcast.info/news/the-first-billion-bird-night-6-7-october-2023/):
>We will keep this simple – welcome to the billion bird club!
>There is not much more that we can say beyond – in the recorded history of BirdCast, here is the first billion bird night! BILLION! And, as you can see, this epic and grand occasion did not stop at a billion, growing to nearly 1.2 billion!
<img src="https://is-birdcast-wordpress-prod-s3.s3.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/mosaic_202310070220.jpg" />
However, as Watt Poultry, a trade journal for the poultry industry, wrote on September 25, 2024, "[Beware of another billion-bird migration night](https://www.wattagnet.com/poultry-meat/diseases-health/avian-influenza/article/15704378/beware-of-another-billionbird-migration-night)":
>Now that fall is upon us and wild birds will soon begin their migrations in North America, it is especially important for poultry producers to make sure all biosecurity precautions are being carried out on their farms to prevent infections of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
>Emily Pittman, veterinary director, Georgia Poultry Laboratory Network, reminded attendees of the 2024 Georgia Layer Conference on September 23 what day it was, and that in 2023, October 6 was a billion-bird migration night.
>“If you remember last year, this was about when we started having issues (with HPAI) again,” she said.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, after October 7, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, BirdCast's [Live bird migration maps](https://birdcast.info/migration-tools/live-migration-maps/) tool reports ≥1000.0 million birds in flight simultaneously over the United States. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: The time zone for this question is Eastern Time (ET), as that is the one used by BirdCast.
In case of the resolution source being unavailable or no longer timely updated before the question can resolve, resolution will wait until January 7, 2025 for the bird migration traffic numbers up to December 31, 2024, 23:50 ET to be shown, at which point this question will be **annulled** if the numbers are still not shown.
|
2024-10-08T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-30T17:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T22:32:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28657
|
Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025?
|
China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain of critical metals. Antimony, used in bullets, nuclear weapons production, and lead-acid batteries, is just one of many metals that China has a significant share of global production.
The announcement follows China's previous export controls [on graphite](https://www.csis.org/analysis/chinas-use-graphite-export-restrictions-encourages-diversification) in 2023 and restrictions on germanium and gallium, two metals used in chipmaking, in response to U.S. efforts to limit China's access to high-end semiconductors. These moves have led some industry experts to speculate that China may soon impose export controls on other critical metals, such as tungsten, which is nearly as hard as a diamond and used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting machines.
China's actions are seen by some as retaliatory measures against what it perceives as intrusions into its national interests. As a result, companies in the U.S. and elsewhere are exploring alternatives to reduce their reliance on China for critical metals. However, it remains to be seen whether China will follow through with a blanket implementation of the latest export controls or announce restrictions on additional metals in the near future.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, before January 1, 2025, the Chinese government or any of its official agencies (e.g., Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs) publicly announces (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) new export restrictions or controls on any metals not previously subject to such measures as of September 29, 2024.
The question will resolve as "No" if no such announcement is made by the Chinese government or its agencies before January 1, 2025, according to any credible source reporting that can be found.
Fine Print: - The announcement must be an official statement from the Chinese government or its agencies and must clearly indicate the imposition of new export restrictions or controls on specific metals.
- If China announces the intention to impose new export restrictions or controls on a metal but does not provide a specific implementation date, the question will resolve as "Yes" if the announcement is made before January 1, 2025.
- Amendments or extensions of existing export restrictions on metals will not count towards a "Yes" resolution unless they substantially expand the scope or severity of the controls. In case of any ambiguity in such cases, a panel of Metaculus Admins will make a ruling.
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2025-01-01T03:59:00Z
|
2024-11-15T21:00:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28655
|
Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition?
|
The [2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) Prize](https://arcprize.org/)...
>... is a $1,000,000+ public competition to beat and open source a solution to the ARC-AGI benchmark. Hosted by Mike Knoop (Co-founder, Zapier) and François Chollet (Creator of ARC-AGI, Keras).
The competition rules require an autonomous algorithm to solve 100 visual grid-coloring, few shot learning questions. Typically, but not consistently, three pairs of 9x9 colored squares are provided for training and a single test grid is provided for inference testing. The solutions to each few-shot learning problem must be submitted autonomously while offline (disconnected from the internet) and with limited Kaggle compute resources over a time span of 12 hours.
The 2024 ARC Prize website at ARCPrize.org lists [LLMs](https://ieeecai.org/2024/wp-content/pdfs/540900a793/540900a793.pdf) among the [4 approaches](https://arcprize.org/guide#approaches) that are popular and an LLM-based algorithm is ranked number one on the [official](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024/leaderboard) leaderboard, as of September 30, 2024. However the organizers' analysis doesn't reflect the fact that within the last few months LLMs have risen to the top of ARC leaderboards. Source code and descriptions of the top approach (MindsAI with 47% accuracy) has not been released yet, but appears to be entirely LLM focused. Second place as of September 30, 2024 is held by `alijs`, a Kaggle Grand Master, who has not provided details about their approach.
See also:
- The official 2024 ARC Prize Kaggle competition [website](https://www.kaggle.com/competitions/arc-prize-2024)
- [The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the ARC Challenge](https://lab42.global/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Lab42-Essay-Simon-Ouellette-The-Hitchhikers-Guide-to-the-ARC-Challenge.pdf)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the top ranking algorithm of the 2024 ARC Prize competition incorporates conventional AI algorithms from the first 20 chapters of AI a Modern Approach, by Norvig and Russell, to plan or generate answers during their winning submission. Otherwise the question resolves as **No**.
All competitors must submit their software on Kaggle by November 10, 2024, and the winning algorithms will be announced December 6, 2024. Source code for all algorithms will be publicly available, according to the [competition rules](https://arcprize.org/competition).
Fine Print: For the purposes of this question, GOFAI (good old fashioned AI) includes any AI algorithm invented and deployed before 2015 (pre LLM-based AI). The first 20 chapters of Artificial Intelligence a Modern Approach, by Norvig and Russell describe GOFAI.
Should the winning team not submit a voluntary analysis of their own algorithm stating the use or nonuse of GOFAI, then Metaculus judges may use their judgement and analysis of the source code or alternative sources to determine resolution.
|
2024-10-03T21:01:00Z
|
2024-11-10T20:00:00Z
|
2024-12-17T16:40:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28650
|
Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025?
|
According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):
> On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $14.9 billion. Under the terms of the deal, U.S. Steel will become a wholly owned subsidiary of NSC but retain its name and headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania \[...].
> The potential foreign ownership of U.S. Steel, which is widely considered an icon of American industry, has generated controversy in the U.S. The White House, lawmakers from both major parties, and the USW have criticized or opposed the deal due to concerns about its impact on workers, supply chains, and national security. Conversely, the transaction has garnered support from various government officials, policy experts, and business analysts, who argue that it will help revitalize U.S. Steel and the country's declining steel industry and counter that Japan is a major economic partner and investor.
> On March 14, 2024, the Biden Administration announced its opposition to the planned acquisition, echoing a statement by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who pledged to block the deal "instantaneously" if elected president in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections. The deal is undergoing an antitrust review by the U.S. Department of Justice, and a possible investigation by the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS). Nippon Steel has subsequently delayed its timeline for closing the deal from the middle of 2024 towards the end of the year.
CFIUS let the companies [refile their application](https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/us-decision-nippons-bid-us-steel-pushed-back-until-after-election-2024-09-17/) in September, which sets a new deadline in December for the CFIUS to make a decision.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following occur before the merger deal between U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel has been fulfilled:
* The sitting U.S. President issues an order blocking the deal
* U.S. Steel and Nippon Steel jointly announce the deal's cancellation
* Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel unilaterally terminates the deal
* Either U.S. Steel or Nippon Steel files an SEC Form 8-K announcing the merger agreement's termination or abandonment.
If none of these have occurred before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.
Subsequent legal actions (e.g., lawsuits appealing an order) do not affect the resolution of this question.
Fine Print: The CFIUS recommendation does not directly impact the resolution of this question, even if the CFIUS recommends blocking the deal, as it lacks enforcement authority. 
|
2024-10-23T14:30:00Z
|
2024-12-31T12:00:00Z
|
2025-01-01T12:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28603
|
What is the probability that the Bills will win over the Ravens in Sunday Night Football this week?
|
NFL game. Sunday night. Look into the moneyline maybe :)
Resolution Criteria: Whoever is declared to have won by the NFL. If there is a tie, the Bills have not won.
|
2024-09-26T22:16:00Z
|
2024-09-28T23:00:00Z
|
2024-10-08T03:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28601
|
What is the probability that Donald Trump will accept the CNN presidential debate invitation for October 23 between now and next meeting (10/10)?
|
Do some searches :p
Resolution Criteria: Will resolve yes based on if at least two reputable news sources (EX: Reuters, NYT, etc) report that Donald Trump has accepted a debate invitation for October 23
|
2024-09-26T22:11:00Z
|
2024-10-04T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-10T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28600
|
What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?
|
bitcoin?
Resolution Criteria: We will resolve based on https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin. Resolves true if at any point in time before resolution, BTC rises above $68k
|
2024-09-26T22:09:00Z
|
2024-10-09T22:00:00Z
|
2024-10-10T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28598
|
What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)?
|
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD
Resolution Criteria: Resolved on date using info from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD
|
2024-09-26T22:00:00Z
|
2024-10-10T03:59:00Z
|
2024-10-10T22:00:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28597
|
What is the probability that the New York Liberty will win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their playoff semifinals matchup on October 4, 2024?
|
Search it up :D
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved according to ESPN scores on October 5, 2024.
|
2024-09-26T22:00:00Z
|
2024-10-04T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-08T03:48:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28369
|
Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election?
|
The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024 with the main candidates being Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The Metaculus track record on the US presidential elections is at best mixed. [On November 2nd, 2016](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/24/will-the-next-elected-us-president-be-as-usual-a-white-christian-non-hispanic-man/) the Metaculus Community Prediction was at 10% for Trump, who ended up winning the election. [On November 3rd, 2020](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1100/trump-reelected-by-november-10th-2020/) the Community Prediction was at 15% for Trump, who ended up losing.
[As of September 27, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/), the Community Prediction is at 56% for Kamala Harris and 44% for Donald Trump.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of the US presidential election is the candidate who had the highest Community Prediction in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/) on November 4th, at 12:00p.m. EST.
Otherwise, the question will resolve as **No**.
Fine Print: The winner of the election will be determined in the same way in [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/2024-us-presidential-election-winner/).
If the 2024 US presidential election question resolves as ambiguous or is annulled, this question resolves as **Ambiguous**.
If there is a tie between the top candidates in the 2024 US presidential election question, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-28T13:24:00Z
|
2024-10-15T20:59:00Z
|
2025-01-23T18:23:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28338
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?
|
Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.
The conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.
[On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. Hezbollah has vowed retribution against Israel, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18 that the country was "opening a new phase in the war" and and that the "centre of gravity is shifting to the north through the diversion of resources and forces".
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if, after September 19, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.
The announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1, 2025.
For the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.
|
2024-09-20T16:04:00Z
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00Z
|
2024-10-02T06:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28336
|
Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?
|
Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vanguard News in [April 2024](https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/04/edo-iseghohi-wins-aa-guber-ticket/) named Iseghohi the frontrunner in the race, adding that "is not only the fastest growing party in Nigeria but also the party to beat in the forthcoming September 21 governorship election in the state."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Prince Tom Iseghohi is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results.
Fine Print: Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-23T23:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28335
|
Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?
|
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on September 30, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T22:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28334
|
Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?
|
Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)
By early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.
Whilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:
- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)
- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)
The aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, "tit-for-tat" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.
Amidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves to "Yes" if before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five (5) individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve to "Yes":
- Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
- The threshold of five (5) fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period.
These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:09:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28327
|
[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?
|
The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast [is set to expire](https://www.huschblackwell.com/newsandinsights/ila-labor-agreement-set-to-expire-strike-looms) on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has announced its intent to strike, which could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and global trade. These ports handle approximately 43% of U.S. imports, meaning the impact on industries ranging from retail to manufacturing would be substantial, potentially leading to backlogs that could take weeks to resolve.
Key issues in the negotiations include wage increases and opposition to port automation. The ILA claims that wages have not kept pace with inflation or rising corporate profits, particularly those of ocean carriers. Businesses have already begun taking preemptive measures, such as diverting shipments to the West Coast, though this might only shift the strain elsewhere. A strike could also create widespread container shortages, increase shipping costs, and delay critical imports from Europe, Latin America, and other regions.
The Biden administration could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to block the strike, but according to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/biden-wont-block-potential-strike-east-coast-ports-administration-official-says-2024-09-17/) they do not intend to do so.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 7, 2024, credible sources report that an International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike has officially begun. An announcement of an impending strike would not be sufficient to resolve this question. If a strike begins and is later stopped for whatever reason, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.
|
2024-09-24T07:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T10:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T04:01:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28306
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?
|
According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg" />
The question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):
>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.
>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue.
It is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg" />
Please see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is <$3.000 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, "Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed." These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T19:46:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28305
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?
|
According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg" />
The question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):
>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.
>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue.
It is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg" />
Please see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.400 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, "Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed." These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T19:44:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28304
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?
|
According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg" />
The question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):
>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.
>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue.
It is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg" />
Please see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.300 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, "Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed." These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T14:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28303
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?
|
According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg" />
The question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):
>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.
>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue.
It is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg" />
Please see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.100 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, "Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed." These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T19:45:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28302
|
Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?
|
According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg" />
The question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):
>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.
>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue.
It is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years:
<img src="https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg" />
Please see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.
Fine Print: If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, "Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed." These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T19:43:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28301
|
Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?
|
Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:
On September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.
Apple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division.
Google had layoff events in January, April, May, and June.
IBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)
Meta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.
Nvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).
Oracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024.
Salesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.
Tesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker *A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs*, which currently can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/12/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), one of the following listed companies has layoffs in September 2024:
- Amazon
- Apple
- Google or Alphabet
- IBM
- Meta or Facebook
- Nvidia
- Oracle
- Salesforce
- Tesla
If no layoff event is listed under the September 2024 section for any of the above companies, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources.
If on October 1, 2024, the time stamp on the resolution source is not September 30, 2024 or later, resolution will wait until up to October 7, 2024, for the entire month of September to be shown. If on October 7, 2024 the time stamp is not September 30, 2024 or later, this question resolves based on what is displayed at the resolution source at the time.
In order to count, the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, if there is a layoff event at Waymo, it will not count for purposes of this question unless the subheading mentions Alphabet or Google, even though Waymo is owned by Alphabet.
Tech Crunch's layoffs tracker dynamically updates its URL based on the last update. This question resolves based on the most recent version of the page that encompasses the month of September through September 30.
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:07:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28300
|
Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?
|
Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).
On September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):
>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris
>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />
>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />
>- [at]BarackObama<br />
>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />
>- [at]BernieSanders<br />
>- [at]AOC
>I think we can have amazing conversations!
>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.
>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤
>DM's are open! 🙏
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, any of the following individuals appears on the Lex Fridman podcast, listed on the [Podcast Episodes Page](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) (with the person's name appearing in red under the episode title) in an episode more recent than episode #443:
- Kamala Harris
- Tim Walz
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- Bernie Sanders
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
If this event does not occur before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Appears" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing in red under the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-09-20T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-21T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T11:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28292
|
Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?
|
As of the close of trading on Friday, September 13, 2024, Tesla traded at $230.29 per share. At the time of this question, Tesla is planning to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed "Close" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $230.00 for September 30, 2024.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T20:19:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28291
|
Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?
|
On August 29, 2024, Laredo Oil, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442492/000119983524000414/form_nt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024, for Laredo Oil, Inc. at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001442492&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If the resolution source link remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the SEC discontinuing its "Classic version"), this question resolves as No.
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T12:51:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28290
|
Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024?
|
As of September 8, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-19T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T11:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28247
|
[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?
|
Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)
By early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.
Whilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:
- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)
- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)
The aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, "tit-for-tat" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.
Amidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves to "Yes" if before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five (5) individuals.
Fine Print: The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve to "Yes":
- Occur within the area demarcated as "Israel" on the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered "within Israel" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered "within Israel."
- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.
- The threshold of five (5) fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period.
These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.
|
2024-09-18T22:38:00Z
|
2024-09-30T23:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T17:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28245
|
Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?
|
As of Friday September 13, 2024, the value shown was 0.09.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [FRED's 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y), there is a negative value for September 27, 2024.
Fine Print: The question will resolve according to the first value shown for the date in question when accessed by Metaculus; later updates or revisions will be immaterial.
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T21:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28244
|
Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024?
|
According to the USDA: "June 30, 2024 – M.G. Waldbaum dba Michael Foods Inc., a Gaylord, Minn. establishment, is recalling approximately 4,620 pounds of liquid egg products due to misbranding and undeclared allergens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains dairy (milk), a known allergen, which is not declared on the product label. "
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/michael-foods-inc--recalls-fair-meadow-foundations-liquid-egg-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after September 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T13:05:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28243
|
Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing?
|
Trump Media & Technology Group owns Truth Social, and Former President Donald Trump currently owns 36 million shares of the company, according to the most recent [Form 4 filing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001474506-24-000146.htm) with his name on it. According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lockup period is [scheduled to end](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/trump-media-stock-truth-social.html) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. According to Seeking Alpha, Trump [told a reporter](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149683-trump-media-jumps-25-as-former-president-suggests-he-wont-sell-shares) at a press conference that he was not prepared to start selling shares, causing the stock price to jump in reaction to that statement.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if on October 1, 2024, there is a Form 4 posted at [this](https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/financials/sec-filings/) SEC filings page for Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., dated after the launch of this question, revealing that former President Donald Trump has made any disposals of his derivative securities in the company. If there is no such Form 4 filing on that page, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Please note for example that the resolution link is not the SEC EDGAR database, so forecasters who believe there is a material chance that Trump Media's investor relations page will not be timely updated should forecast accordingly.
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T13:02:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28237
|
Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?
|
Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024. Although the harvest season from October 2024 to February 2025 is expected to slightly improve food availability and stabilize prices, the magnitude of food insecurity is still projected to remain significant, with an estimated 21.1 million people at risk of IPC Phase 3 or above. This question focuses on whether the situation will improve enough to bring the number of people facing high acute food insecurity below 20 million by the end of the 2024 harvest season.
Resolution Criteria: Yes: Official IPC or similar credible reports confirm that fewer than 20 million people are in IPC Phase 3 or above during the period of October 2024 - February 2025.
No: More than 20 million people are reported in IPC Phase 3 or above during this period.
|
2024-09-18T09:10:00Z
|
2025-02-28T22:59:00Z
|
2025-03-01T09:47:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28234
|
Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?
|
Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:
On September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.
Apple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division.
Google had layoff events in January, April, May, and June.
IBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)
Meta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.
Nvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).
Oracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024.
Salesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.
Tesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker *A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs*, which currently can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/12/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), one of the following listed companies has layoffs in September 2024:
- Amazon
- Apple
- Google or Alphabet
- IBM
- Meta or Facebook
- Nvidia
- Oracle
- Salesforce
- Tesla
If no layoff event is listed under the September 2024 section for any of the above companies, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Tech Crunch's "comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources.
If on October 1, 2024, the time stamp on the resolution source is not September 30, 2024 or later, resolution will wait until up to October 7, 2024, for the entire month of September to be shown. If on October 7, 2024 the time stamp is not September 30, 2024 or later, this question resolves based on what is displayed at the resolution source at the time.
In order to count, the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, if there is a layoff event at Waymo, it will not count for purposes of this question unless the subheading mentions Alphabet or Google, even though Waymo is owned by Alphabet.
Tech Crunch's layoffs tracker dynamically updates its URL based on the last update. This question resolves based on the most recent version of the page that encompasses the month of September through September 30.
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-29T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:04:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28210
|
Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model "llama-3.1-405b-instruct".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "llama" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T13:39:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28209
|
Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for for second, specifically through its model "grok-2-2024-08-13".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "grok" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T13:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28208
|
Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked as tied sixth, specifically through its model "claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "claude" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:37:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28207
|
Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for second, specifically through its model "gemini-1.5-pro-exp-0827".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "gemini" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:33:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28206
|
Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?
|
As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with model "chatgpt-4o-latest".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "chatgpt" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:36:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28205
|
Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024?
|
According to the AP on [September 13, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/boeing-strike-machinists-contract-9f61a7d48675d1c3517233d40d4ec2b1), "Aircraft assembly workers went on strike Friday at Boeing factories in Washington, Oregon and California after union members overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract that would have increased wages by 25% over four years. The work stoppage involving 33,000 machinists will not disrupt commercial flights immediately but was expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling airliners, presenting another setback for a company already dealing with a damaged reputation and financial losses."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there are no reports on the Associated Press's [Strike Hub](https://apnews.com/hub/strikes) that Boeing's aircraft assembly workers have ended their strike before October 1, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus. Conversely, if there is a report on that specific portal that Boeing's workers have ended their strike, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered. Therefore, if forecasters believe that the Associated Press may not timely update its Strike Hub portal in the event of the strike ending, they should forecast accordingly. Similarly, if the Strikes Hub page is unavailable on October 1, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on what is shown), until October 8, 2024, at which point this question will resolve as No. For purposes of this question, no resolution source will resolve as No rather than annullment of the question.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:57:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28204
|
Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?
|
The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
The 1962 Mets have the most losses in the "Modern Era" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.
The 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.
See [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.
Resolution Criteria: The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by the Major League Baseball standings at [this link](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 124 losses for the 2024 season, this question resolves as Yes. Under 120 resolves as No.
Fine Print: No other sources will be considered for this question. Admins will resolve based on the number supplied by MLB on October 1, 2024.
|
2024-09-16T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-17T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:03:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28164
|
Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?
|
Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).
On September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):
>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris
>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />
>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />
>- [at]BarackObama<br />
>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />
>- [at]BernieSanders<br />
>- [at]AOC
>I think we can have amazing conversations!
>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.
>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤
>DM's are open! 🙏
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, any of the following individuals appears on the Lex Fridman podcast, listed on the [Podcast Episodes Page](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) (with the person's name appearing in red under the episode title) in an episode more recent than episode #443:
- Kamala Harris
- Tim Walz
- Barack Obama
- Hillary Clinton
- Bernie Sanders
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
If this event does not occur before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: "Appears" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing in red under the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.
|
2024-09-18T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-30T16:00:00Z
|
2024-10-01T14:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28156
|
Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?
|
According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), "Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after September 30, 2024. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:08:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28155
|
Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?
|
On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices exceeds $2,700 for any day before October 1, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other resolution source will be considered.
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28154
|
Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?
|
Human rights activist Kennedy Iyere is one of the 17 [candidates](https://inecnigeria.org/?page_id=13150) for governor of Edo State. His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Accord does not currently hold any seats in Nigeria's National Assembly.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Kennedy Iyere is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results.
Fine Print: Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-14T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-22T23:30:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28070
|
Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?
|
As of September 9, 2024, the Yankees and Guardians had 82 wins and 81 wins, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees have more wins than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 regular season, as shown by the Major League Baseball [standings tracker](https://www.mlb.com/standings/) when checked by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: In the case of a tie for the number of wins between the two teams, this question resolves as **No**.
|
2024-09-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T21:25:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28069
|
Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?
|
As of September 8, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped August 15, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.
|
2024-09-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-18T23:55:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28046
|
Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?
|
Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading.
This recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.
Despite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.
[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve as "Yes" if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium), falls below 70,000, for any day's closing price, after September 10, 2024, and before October 1, 2024.
The question will resolve as "No" if the lithium carbonate price does not fall below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-03T14:10:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28045
|
Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?
|
Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.
One of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a "suspected extremist" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))
AfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-26T20:25:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28044
|
Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?
|
Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.
One of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a "suspected extremist" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))
AfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-26T20:26:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28043
|
Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?
|
Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.
One of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a "suspected extremist" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))
AfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-26T20:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28042
|
Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?
|
Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.
One of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a "suspected extremist" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))
AfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).
Fine Print: This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-26T20:26:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28041
|
Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?
|
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
This question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.
Fine Print: - A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:54:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28040
|
Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?
|
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
This question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.
Fine Print: - A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-02T16:01:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28039
|
Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?
|
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
This question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.
Fine Print: - A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:53:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28038
|
Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?
|
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
This question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.
Fine Print: - A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T23:50:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28037
|
Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?
|
The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.
This question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.
Resolution Criteria: This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.
Fine Print: - A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.
- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-13T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-27T23:52:00Z
|
yes
|
METACULUS
|
meta-28024
|
Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?
|
On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was "likely" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].
>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.
>"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.
>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.
Along with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.
Established [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word "industrial" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as "pertaining to productive industry," which is more akin to how the word "corporate" or "business" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)
Two contenders to replace Intel are:
- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)
- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as "a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index.
If no such announcement or reporting occurs before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.
Fine Print: Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before October 1, 2024 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after September 30, 2024.
Forecasters will note that this question makes certain implicit assumptions such as the DJIA index continuing to exist in its present form. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).
|
2024-09-11T14:30:00Z
|
2024-09-12T14:30:00Z
|
2024-10-01T20:06:00Z
|
no
|
METACULUS
|
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