id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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meta-29073 | Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift officially announce their engagement before January 1, 2025? | The Mirror (UK): [Fans think Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce are engaged after spotting string of clues](https://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/fans-think-taylor-swift-travis-33819671)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to credible sources Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift are publicly ... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T19:14:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29072 | Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before January 1, 2025? | According to Wikipedia, "North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017."
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [In... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:49:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29071 | Will the USDA-posted recall of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products issued September 27, 2024 be closed before December 31, 2024? | According to the USDA: "JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains s... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29070 | Will Spirit Airlines file for bankruptcy before January 1, 2025? | Spirit Airlines, a deep discount airline which has been unprofitable from an operating standpoint since the start of the 2020 pandemic, recently had a buyout from JetBlue rejected by antitrust regulators. As of Q2 2024 results it continues to face declining revenues and negative earnings and cash flows.Spirit AIrlines ... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T19:59:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29069 | Will Spotify remove rapper Diddy's songs from Diddy's Spotify page before January 1, 2025? | Time Magazine September 20, 2024: [Diddy’s in Exile. Here’s What Could Happen to His Music Now](https://time.com/7023138/sean-diddy-combs-music-back-catalog/)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if rapper Sean "Diddy" Combs no longer has music at his Spotify page, which can currently be found at [th... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29068 | Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than 1.0 percentage points? | Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual ele... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T17:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29067 | Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to 0 percentage points and less than or equal to 1.0 percentage points? | Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual ele... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T17:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29066 | Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than -1.0 and less than 0 percentage points? | Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual ele... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T17:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29065 | Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be greater than or equal to -2.0 and less than or equal to -1.0 percentage points? | Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual ele... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T17:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29064 | Will RCP's polling bias for Trump based on national polls in the month before the 2024 election be less than -2.0 percentage points? | Polling bias is calculated by subtracting the actual voting percentage spread from the pre-election polled percentage spread of the candidate in question. For example, [Activote's](https://www.activote.net/polling-analysis/) national 2020 poll reported Trump trailing Biden by a 6 percentage point spread. The actual ele... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29039 | Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election? | Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botsw... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-01T15:50:29Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29038 | Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election? | Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T19:17:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29037 | Will IBM lower its Pay-as-you-go quantum computing prices before January 1, 2025? | IBM press release September 26, 2024: [IBM Expands Quantum Data Center in Poughkeepsie, New York to Advance Algorithm Discovery Globally](https://newsroom.ibm.com/2024-09-26-ibm-expands-quantum-data-center-in-poughkeepsie,-new-york-to-advance-algorithm-discovery-globally)
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as... | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29013 | Will Tesla deliver more than 450,000 vehicles in Q4 2024? | In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-03T23:23:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29012 | Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 205% before November 15, 2024?
| In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):
>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the coun... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-14T14:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29011 | Will US airline passenger volume for the Veterans Day weekend of 2024 be up year over year, according to the TSA? | Veterans Day in the US is [federal holiday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_holidays_in_the_United_States) and is a celebrated on November 11th, regardless of the day of the week upon which it falls. In 2023 it fell on a Saturday, and in 2024 it will fall on a Monday.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves ... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-13T19:49:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-29010 | On October 31, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's? | Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T18:52:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29009 | Will Doug Pederson cease to be the Jacksonville Jaguars head coach before January 1, 2025? | After an early losing streak to begin the 2024-25 NFL season, some have [speculated](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/will-doug-pederson-get-fired-jaguars-coach-hot-seat/8e9d16305862870ef416857f) that Pederson might be fired by Jaguars owner Shad Khan, although the question might be timing.
Resolution Criteri... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:43:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29008 | Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) be higher Year-over-Year on October 30, 2024? | According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/VIX), VIX is the ticker symbol and the popular name for the Chi... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-04T19:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-29007 | Will Nippon Steel acquire US Steel before January 1, 2025? | According to a press release dated September 19, 2024, US Steel's president and CEO said, "We continue to progress through the U.S. regulatory reviews of the pending transaction with Nippon Steel, and are confident in our ability to achieve these approvals. We continue to work towards closing the transaction by the end... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28999 | Will a book written by a language model make the NY Times Best Seller list before 2025?
| From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Language_model),
> A statistical language model is a probability distribution over sequences of words.
The New York Times Best Seller list [is](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_New_York_Times_Best_Seller_list),
> widely considered the preeminent list of best-selling bo... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-02T02:21:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28998 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war before January 1, 2025?
| In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close c... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T20:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28997 | Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before January 1, 2025? | In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.
A senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells... | 2024-10-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-22T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28974 | [Short Fuse] Will the Botswana Democratic Party win the 2024 general election? | Botswana is among the most prosperous and stable countries in Africa. It has been ruled by the [Botswana Democratic Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Botswana_Democratic_Party) since independence from the United Kingdom in 1966. The party has continuously won [free and fair elections](https://www.voanews.com/a/botsw... | 2024-10-21T22:29:00Z | 2024-10-30T04:00:00Z | 2024-11-01T10:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28972 | [Short Fuse] Will the Liberal Democratic Party win a majority of seats in the 2024 Japanese general election? | Soon after taking office, Prime Minister of Japan Shigeru Ishiba had the House of Representatives dissolved, leading to [new elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Japanese_general_election). Ishiba hopes to [get a fresh mandate](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/10/japans-snap-election-why-ishibas-gamble-might-... | 2024-10-21T22:15:00Z | 2024-10-26T21:00:00Z | 2024-10-28T07:27:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28917 | Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be delayed until after January 6, 2025 for any reason? | This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will the certification of the 2024 US Presidential election be halted for any reason?
The [2024 US Presidential election](https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election,_2024) will be held on 5 November 2024 between Democratic nominee Vice President K... | 2024-10-22T22:03:00Z | 2025-01-06T04:59:00Z | 2025-01-07T21:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28906 | Will Kamala Harris go on Joe Rogan's podcast before the 2024 election? | [The Joe Rogan Experience](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Joe_Rogan_Experience) (JRE) is a podcast hosted by [Joe Rogan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Rogan) a comedian, actor, and commentator. Joe Rogan's [website](https://www.joerogan.com/) describes the JRE as:
>a long form conversation hosted by comedian ... | 2024-10-16T15:03:00Z | 2024-10-27T02:00:00Z | 2024-11-05T22:58:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28903 | Will North Korea perform its seventh nuclear test before 2025? | North Korea's nuclear program has a long history, but the [first North Korean nuclear test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_North_Korean_nuclear_test) was conducted in 2006. Its max yield was smaller than expected, with most sources estimating it as less than 1 kiloton of TNT. Since then, North Korea has conducted f... | 2024-10-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-08T23:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T13:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28858 | Will Tiktok be Banned in the US or Sold before January 20, 2025? | This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: Will Tiktok be banned in the US or sold?
In 2020, the [Trump administration issued an executive order aiming to ban TikTok in the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok_v._Trump#:~:text=On%20August%206%2C%202020%2C%20Donald,on%20the%20in... | 2024-10-18T16:48:00Z | 2025-01-19T14:05:00Z | 2025-02-17T01:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28855 | Will Erik Ten Hag stop being Manchester United's manager before 2025? | [Erik ten Hag](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Erik_ten_Hag)'s tenure as Manchester United's manager, which began in 2022, has seen a mix of highs and lows. After a successful first season where the team secured a top-four finish and [won the EFL Cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_EFL_Cup_final), United's form in th... | 2024-10-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-11-11T12:00:00Z | 2024-10-28T06:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28854 | Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025? | The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-10-27T17:15:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28852 | [Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid? | On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments ... | 2024-10-16T11:00:00Z | 2024-10-20T01:00:00Z | 2024-10-21T08:11:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28851 | [Short fuse] Will there be a majority of "Yes" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum? | On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments ... | 2024-10-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-20T01:00:00Z | 2024-10-22T02:21:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28841 | Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025? | [Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021.
Following [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administr... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T16:59:00Z | 2025-01-01T21:09:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28834 | Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games? | The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Sing... | 2024-11-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T11:00:00Z | 2024-12-01T13:15:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28829 | What is the probability that a Westbound Amtrak Sunset Limited train reports a delay of more than 4 hours upon arriving at its terminus before the 10:00 AM on 10/24? | https://juckins.net/amtrak_status/archive/html/history.php?train_num=1&station=LAX&date_start=09%2F9%2F2024&date_end=10%2F10%2F2024&df1=1&df2=1&df3=1&df4=1&df5=1&df6=1&df7=1&sort=schAr&sort_dir=DESC&co=gt&limit_mins=&dfon=1
Resolution Criteria: Resolves by: https://juckins.net/amtrak_status/archive/html/history.php?tr... | 2024-10-10T23:02:00Z | 2024-10-20T23:02:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28826 | Odds Dan wins in fantasy this week (week of 10/7). | dan really thought the bills would win...
Resolution Criteria: Resolves from screenshot from Dan. | 2024-10-10T22:54:00Z | 2024-10-12T14:00:00Z | 2024-10-14T22:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28823 | Probability that CPax sends an email from president@brown.edu by the next meeting (10/24)? | It has to be from that specific email address!
Resolution Criteria: The email has to be to anybody, not just to you LMAO | 2024-10-10T22:49:00Z | 2024-10-17T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-24T21:45:12Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28821 | Probability APMA 1650 (Amelia Culiuc) exam results gets released by 10/24? | APMA 1650 is a big class...
Resolution Criteria: Resolved by Gradescope or Canvas | 2024-10-01T22:48:00Z | 2024-10-20T22:46:00Z | 2024-10-24T14:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28819 | Probability of any police being called to end a student protest by OCT 24th | Protests?
Resolution Criteria: Resolved by article from BDH | 2024-10-10T22:44:00Z | 2024-10-20T22:44:00Z | 2024-10-24T21:45:13Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28787 | Will Israel strike Iranian nuclear facilities before the 2024 US general election? | As the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, foreign policy analysts are now speculating about whether Israel will decide to strike Iranian nuclear enrichment facilities in an effort to set back Tehran's nuclear program. Israel has long wanted to carry out such an attack, but the US has reportedly [tr... | 2024-10-08T14:51:00Z | 2024-11-05T07:01:00Z | 2024-11-05T12:18:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28783 | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2024? | Many children wish for a white Christmas, i.e. snow on the days 24th or 25th December. Transit operators and homeless people enjoy it less. It is an important cultural event around the northern Atlantic, though; hence this question!
Cultural note: The majority of inhabitants of Instanbul do not celebrate Christmas at ... | 2024-10-30T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-15T23:00:00Z | 2024-12-26T05:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28748 | Anitta será indicada ao Grammy Awards 2025 em uma categoria principal? | Anitta ganhou o Grammy Latino de Album do Ano em 2024 [Grammy Latino 2024](https://www.grammy.com/news/2024-latin-grammys-nominations-record-of-the-year).
Resolution Criteria: Website oficial do Grammy | 2024-10-07T17:58:00Z | 2024-11-08T07:59:00Z | 2024-11-08T15:20:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28733 | [Short Fuse] Will the vote of no confidence in Michel Barnier's government pass in the French National Assembly? | Prime Minister of France Michel Barnier, from the Republicans party, faces a [no-confidence vote](https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/french-left-moves-no-confidence-vote-against-barnier-with-little-hope-it-passes/) filed on October 4th by the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP).
The snap legislative election... | 2024-10-06T13:40:00Z | 2024-10-08T05:30:00Z | 2024-10-08T19:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28706 | Will OpenAI's o1 remain the top LLM in all categories of Chatbot Arena on December 30, 2024? | [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on <https://lmsys.org/>) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their... | 2024-10-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-29T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T11:41:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28704 | Will BirdCast report 1 billion birds flying over the United States at any point before January 1, 2025? | BirdCast is a [consortium](https://birdcast.info/about/collaborators/) of interdisciplinary researchers, with the three primary institutions being the Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Colorado State University's Aeroeco Lab, and the University of Massachusetts Amherst, with funding from the National Science Foundation, the ... | 2024-10-08T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-30T17:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T22:32:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28657 | Will China officially announce export restrictions on any additional metals before January 1, 2025? | China's [recent announcement](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/21/chinas-antimony-export-controls-rattle-the-tungsten-industry.html) of export controls on antimony, effective September 15, 2024, has raised concerns among industry insiders about the country's willingness to leverage its dominance in the global supply chain ... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2025-01-01T03:59:00Z | 2024-11-15T21:00:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28655 | Will conventional pre-LLM GOFAI (graph search, tree search, game play or symbolic logic) be a part of the top-ranked AI in the 2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) competition? | The [2024 Abstraction & Reasoning Corpus (ARC) Prize](https://arcprize.org/)...
>... is a $1,000,000+ public competition to beat and open source a solution to the ARC-AGI benchmark. Hosted by Mike Knoop (Co-founder, Zapier) and François Chollet (Creator of ARC-AGI, Keras).
The competition rules require an autonomous ... | 2024-10-03T21:01:00Z | 2024-11-10T20:00:00Z | 2024-12-17T16:40:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28650 | Will the US Steel/Nippon Steel merger collapse before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_acquisition_of_U.S._Steel_by_Nippon_Steel):
> On December 18, 2023, Japanese steelmaker Nippon Steel Corporation (NSC), the world's third largest steel producer, entered a definitive agreement to purchase United States Steel Corporation (U.S. Steel) for $... | 2024-10-23T14:30:00Z | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2025-01-01T12:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28603 | What is the probability that the Bills will win over the Ravens in Sunday Night Football this week? | NFL game. Sunday night. Look into the moneyline maybe :)
Resolution Criteria: Whoever is declared to have won by the NFL. If there is a tie, the Bills have not won. | 2024-09-26T22:16:00Z | 2024-09-28T23:00:00Z | 2024-10-08T03:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28601 | What is the probability that Donald Trump will accept the CNN presidential debate invitation for October 23 between now and next meeting (10/10)? | Do some searches :p
Resolution Criteria: Will resolve yes based on if at least two reputable news sources (EX: Reuters, NYT, etc) report that Donald Trump has accepted a debate invitation for October 23 | 2024-09-26T22:11:00Z | 2024-10-04T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-10T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28600 | What is the probability that Bitcoin price will rise above $68k at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)? | bitcoin?
Resolution Criteria: We will resolve based on https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin. Resolves true if at any point in time before resolution, BTC rises above $68k | 2024-09-26T22:09:00Z | 2024-10-09T22:00:00Z | 2024-10-10T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28598 | What is the probability that the weather in Warwick, RI will fall below 43 degrees F at any point between now and next meeting (10/10)? | https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD
Resolution Criteria: Resolved on date using info from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ri/warwick/KPVD | 2024-09-26T22:00:00Z | 2024-10-10T03:59:00Z | 2024-10-10T22:00:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28597 | What is the probability that the New York Liberty will win over the Las Vegas Aces in Game 3 of their playoff semifinals matchup on October 4, 2024? | Search it up :D
Resolution Criteria: This question will be resolved according to ESPN scores on October 5, 2024. | 2024-09-26T22:00:00Z | 2024-10-04T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-08T03:48:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28369 | Will the Metaculus community correctly predict the winner of the 2024 US presidential election? | The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024 with the main candidates being Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
The Metaculus track record on the US presidential elections is at best mixed. [On November 2nd... | 2024-09-28T13:24:00Z | 2024-10-15T20:59:00Z | 2025-01-23T18:23:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28338 | Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025? | Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Isr... | 2024-09-20T16:04:00Z | 2025-01-01T04:59:00Z | 2024-10-02T06:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28336 | Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria? | Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vang... | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-23T23:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28335 | Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes? | Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on September 30, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this qu... | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T22:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28334 | Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(202... | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:09:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28327 | [Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024? | The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast [is set to expire](https://www.huschblackwell.com/newsandinsights/ila-labor-agreement-set-to-expire-strike-looms) on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by Octob... | 2024-09-24T07:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T10:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T04:01:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28306 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and r... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T19:46:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28305 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and r... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T19:44:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28304 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and r... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28303 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and r... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T19:45:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28302 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA? | According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and r... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T19:43:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28301 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-micro... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:07:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28300 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Ben... | 2024-09-20T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-21T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T11:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28292 | Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024? | As of the close of trading on Friday, September 13, 2024, Tesla traded at $230.29 per share. At the time of this question, Tesla is planning to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) ... | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T20:19:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28291 | Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024? | On August 29, 2024, Laredo Oil, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442492/000119983524000414/form_nt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024, for Lar... | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T12:51:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28290 | Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024? | As of September 8, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this ques... | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-19T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T11:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28247 | [Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024? | Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(202... | 2024-09-18T22:38:00Z | 2024-09-30T23:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T17:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28245 | Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024? | As of Friday September 13, 2024, the value shown was 0.09.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [FRED's 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 2-Year Treasury Constant Maturity](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y), there is a negative value for September 27, 2024.
Fine Print... | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T21:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28244 | Will the USDA-posted recall of Michael Foods Inc.'s Fair Meadow Foundations Liquid Egg Products issued June 30, 2024 be closed before October 1, 2024? | According to the USDA: "June 30, 2024 – M.G. Waldbaum dba Michael Foods Inc., a Gaylord, Minn. establishment, is recalling approximately 4,620 pounds of liquid egg products due to misbranding and undeclared allergens, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The pr... | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T13:05:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28243 | Will Donald Trump sell any shares of Trump Media before October 1, 2024, as revealed by a Form 4 filing? | Trump Media & Technology Group owns Truth Social, and Former President Donald Trump currently owns 36 million shares of the company, according to the most recent [Form 4 filing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001474506-24-000146.htm) with his name on it. According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lo... | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T13:02:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28237 | Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025? | Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels o... | 2024-09-18T09:10:00Z | 2025-02-28T22:59:00Z | 2025-03-01T09:47:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28234 | Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024? | Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-micro... | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-29T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:04:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28210 | Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model "llama-3.1-405b-instruct".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "llama" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/cha... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T13:39:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28209 | Will a Grok model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for for second, specifically through its model "grok-2-2024-08-13".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "grok" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/c... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T13:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28208 | Will a Claude model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked as tied sixth, specifically through its model "claude-3-5-sonnet-20240620".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "claude" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:37:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28207 | Will a Gemini model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for second, specifically through its model "gemini-1.5-pro-exp-0827".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "gemini" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lms... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:33:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28206 | Will a ChatGPT model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024? | As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with model "chatgpt-4o-latest".
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing "chatgpt" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboa... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:36:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28205 | Will Boeing's aircraft assembly factory workers continuously be on strike, according to the AP's Strikes Hub, through September 30, 2024? | According to the AP on [September 13, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/boeing-strike-machinists-contract-9f61a7d48675d1c3517233d40d4ec2b1), "Aircraft assembly workers went on strike Friday at Boeing factories in Washington, Oregon and California after union members overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract that woul... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:57:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28204 | Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024? | The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics.
... | 2024-09-16T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-17T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:03:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28164 | Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast? | Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Ben... | 2024-09-18T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-30T16:00:00Z | 2024-10-01T14:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28156 | Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024? | According to [the NY Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/10/health/boars-head-deli-meat-listeria.html), "Genome sequencing tests by public health officials in New York and Maryland tied a strain of listeria found in Boar’s Head liverwurst to the bacteria from people who died or fell ill, according to the Centers for... | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:08:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28155 | Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance? | On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves ... | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28154 | Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria? | Human rights activist Kennedy Iyere is one of the 17 [candidates](https://inecnigeria.org/?page_id=13150) for governor of Edo State. His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Acc... | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-14T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-22T23:30:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28070 | Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024? | As of September 9, 2024, the Yankees and Guardians had 82 wins and 81 wins, respectively.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if the New York Yankees have more wins than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 regular season, as shown by the Major League Baseball [standings tracker](https://www.mlb.com/... | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T21:25:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28069 | Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024? | As of September 8, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped August 15, 2024.
Resolution Criteria: This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Rivian's Stories page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://stories.rivian.com/), timestamped after the close of this question and before Octobe... | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-18T23:55:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28046 | Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024? | Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out ... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-03T14:10:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28045 | Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state election... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-26T20:25:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28044 | Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state election... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-26T20:26:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28043 | Will AfD's vote share be more than 30% and less than or equal to 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state election... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-26T20:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28042 | Will AfD's vote share be more than 32% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election? | Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state election... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-26T20:26:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28041 | Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024? | The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause sig... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:54:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28040 | Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024? | The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause sig... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-02T16:01:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28039 | Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024? | The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause sig... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:53:00Z | no | METACULUS |
meta-28038 | Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024? | The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause sig... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T23:50:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28037 | Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024? | The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause sig... | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-13T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-27T23:52:00Z | yes | METACULUS |
meta-28024 | Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024? | On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was "likely" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average:
>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company h... | 2024-09-11T14:30:00Z | 2024-09-12T14:30:00Z | 2024-10-01T20:06:00Z | no | METACULUS |
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