id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ChVhind3kpTGIQzUx1gI | Will Bitcoin Be at Over $50k by April 1st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:45:31 | 2024-02-12T22:01:39 | 2024-02-12T22:01:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QkdDT0IVBMQJa93tWNOb | Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the race for President before the end of Mar 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:06:17 | 2024-01-21T13:28:37 | 2024-01-21T13:28:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tH5hSWGn2kQSCwcMHs94 | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,500 before the end of June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:02:08 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-02T08:04:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GBgWQwUWVFzIH9wq5GRj | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,000 before the end of June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:02:00 | 2024-03-11T06:37:10 | 2024-03-11T06:37:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BB4zu2Qv1nPUabCOWfWA | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $5,000 before the end of June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:01:21 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-21T07:35:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-wuqlceoICEaIquEw1cN2 | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $5,000 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:01:06 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-J7KOIXQBg5qkM9mwLGQX | Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,500 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T15:00:56 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jzuA2W6UfxWgzSBuzuh3 | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Mar 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T14:51:01 | 2024-03-28T15:18:08 | 2024-03-28T15:18:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5J1JCkyVIci7RZRRu2I9 | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Feb 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T14:50:47 | 2024-02-29T13:48:26 | 2024-02-29T13:48:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0Y42qgHce6JmEbyQcQk6 | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Jan 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T14:50:34 | 2024-01-31T15:50:35 | 2024-01-31T15:50:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xMLv2aSwoGeRQPG0Su0w | Will Bitcoin price surpass $50,000 before the end of Feb 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T13:45:34 | 2024-02-12T12:10:02 | 2024-02-12T12:10:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hQHxBf8JG7WBBYARvSxB | Will the world's first trillionaire emerge by 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T13:14:58 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-16T06:18:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dKRuptMSKMAUZ17mnU3u | Will Nvidia's share price break $1000 in 2024? | This market is trying to track real price change. If there is split or reverse split, the price will be treated as no split or reverse split happen. | 2024-01-13T09:07:16 | 2024-05-22T14:15:28 | 2024-05-22T14:15:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4YzNZweMvRoySsImSq8r | Will Bitcoin price be above $55,000 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T08:31:51 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:32:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fGcRITttlYUhJdr9hA0e | Will Bitcoin price be above $50,000 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T08:31:38 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:31:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JSs6MXEbJgXUglYTrNFD | Will Bitcoin price be above $45,000 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T08:31:30 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:31:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lGLRxVVTVX6vC8QHkM9C | Will the S&P 500 be above 5500 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T07:28:00 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:31:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TfizyFM6XShmP6TkBK0W | Will the S&P 500 be above 4500 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T07:27:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:29:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FRokbGHsHvFHpw0h9Bkr | Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T07:26:38 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:31:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qowwepu7nBfpaNyTIzPK | Will GPT-4.5 be released in January? | Can be private or alpha or on a waitlist as long as some official announcement is made.
Previous GPT-4.5 speculations:
@/Mira/what-modalities-will-gpt-45-have-ja
@/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-able-to-read-ascii-a
@/SemioticRivalry/will-gpt-45-come-out-in-december
@/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-announced-by-october | 2024-01-13T07:14:38 | 2024-01-31T23:59:00 | 2024-02-04T08:27:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yxh7mccvCe7h2d9pynvo | Will ETH price break 3200 USD before March 1st? | Will ETH break 3200 usd before 1st of March atleast once | 2024-01-13T07:14:01 | 2024-02-26T20:35:05 | 2024-02-26T20:35:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CsVBUqykUPXLn2IPOlrI | Will Bitcoin price surpass $80,000 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T05:51:24 | 2024-11-10T05:41:00 | 2024-11-10T05:41:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5J6ltYRjW6I1NkAMeeG | Will Bitcoin price surpass $90,000 before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-13T05:51:15 | 2024-11-14T18:26:24 | 2024-11-14T18:26:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aALC07J3KcLjfrAmcZx6 | If Trump won the election, Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024? | If Trump won the election, Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?
Conditional on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, this market will resolve YES if the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024
Resolves NA if Trump didnt win the 2024 presidential election
Compare the price with this market to ... | 2024-01-13T05:43:02 | 2024-12-30T21:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:31:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl | Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024? | I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/di... | 2024-01-13T05:36:29 | 2024-09-30T15:10:19 | 2024-10-01T00:00:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PG64g9nhE7KcvrEDYopG | Will Texas experience a severe outage event before February? | Will Texas experience a severe, large-scale power outage in the coming weeks? In order to resolve YES, such an outage must affect at least 300,000 people and make national news.
This question was inspired by a NYT article (
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/us/texas-power-grid-winter-weather.html
). Quoting:
“Mr. A... | 2024-01-13T04:53:53 | 2024-02-01T23:59:00 | 2024-02-02T08:41:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7wewtGWkuvFdZqPzLpo9 | A Government to confirm the existence of alien 👽 life on earth 🌎 by 2025. | It should be an official communication made by a country or a government employee who as assigned to break the news to the public ie spokesperson. | 2024-01-13T03:47:08 | 2024-12-31T15:51:00 | 2025-01-31T23:19:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OKo3cJaFBJMiKgBCmBmY | Will the Dollar and Euro reach parity again in 2024? | If $1 = €1 in 2024 then this market resolves as yes. | 2024-01-12T23:00:22 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-11T05:48:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bZ8K3Qz49yEuz6WqOxKM | Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth? | Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.
This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or hi... | 2024-01-12T19:44:16 | 2025-01-12T23:59:00 | 2025-01-13T00:25:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AAYXWb9dRBFuBzDnthuo | Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) be the lowest grossing of the series? | Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th, 2024. The previous movies have made quite a bit of money, data per TheNumbers:
Kung Fu Panda: $631.9M
Kung Fu Panda 2: $664.8M
Kung Fu Panda 3: $521.1M (see pinned comment, TheNumber is wrong about this total)
Will Kung Fu Panda 4 make less money than Panda 3, the lowest gros... | 2024-01-12T17:47:04 | 2024-05-10T23:59:00 | 2024-05-11T10:27:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yQCVg84Mh8xDRwYmW9O2 | Will Elon Musk vote for Donald Trump in 2024? | This market will resolve to YES if Elon Musk states that he voted for Donald Trump or otherwise indicates very strong support for his candidacy before the end of 2024. If Elon Musk does not do this or Donald Trump is not a candidate for the 2024 presidential election, this market will resolve to NO.
Examples for clar... | 2024-01-12T17:35:13 | 2024-11-07T22:55:36 | 2024-11-07T22:55:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qwwje4fY4O4JOpV5Ikta | 🐼 vs. 🪱: Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) have a better opening weekend than Dune: Part Two (2024)? | Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th and Dune: Part Two (2024) opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?
This will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).
Also bet on
[markets] | 2024-01-12T17:26:44 | 2024-03-12T12:24:16 | 2024-03-12T12:24:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VVsshCEUFUrFy6qz3XzY | Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024? | This is the fourth on my markets I am creating based on this article
Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.
Death at a Trump rally
BY JULIA AZARI
Julia Azari is a professor of political science at Marquette University.
Political violence can be very disruptive, and it’s usuall... | 2024-01-12T16:52:59 | 2024-07-25T09:19:10 | 2024-07-25T09:19:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wKrIEBX4jbe8Kt2hPhGU | Will Bitcoin hit 30K in Jan 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-12T16:06:38 | 2024-01-31T23:59:00 | 2024-02-01T23:29:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZGTWm3eWnKlrxFLg8QWT | Will Taylor Swift get married before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-12T14:46:32 | 2024-12-04T20:00:47 | 2024-12-04T20:00:47 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yzGprXF0HamPao0RX0Ql | Will anyone get frostbite at an NFL game this weekend? | Resolves on credible sports news source reporting a player or person at the game was being treated for "frostbite" specifically. Will wait to resolve until Monday. | 2024-01-12T11:01:31 | 2024-01-16T06:26:44 | 2024-01-16T06:26:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DkgSQWoq3wWmT5eVNVcB | Will the Texans beat the Browns in the first round of the playoffs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-12T10:17:22 | 2024-01-14T16:40:04 | 2024-01-14T16:40:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ez4EquPhvNzGj5Ss7ZTK | Will the Chiefs beat the Dolphins? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-12T10:04:39 | 2024-01-13T20:59:00 | 2024-01-15T07:14:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vkoQNTnaevStxeTJ7QrX | Will AI be mentioned at all in the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? | This is like the original market (https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the) but it resolves YES if artificial intelligence is mentioned at least once in one of the debates. | 2024-01-12T09:28:51 | 2024-09-14T13:49:15 | 2024-09-14T13:49:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pmqH4oJe1ZpAKATKavpT | 2024 US Elections: Will Trump always have the highest odds? | This market will resolve YES, if
by the US elections (and after the creation of this market)
Donald Trump keeps being the favorite to win them.
As estimated per aggregate of various prediction markets, ElectionBettingOdds
[image] | 2024-01-12T08:46:45 | 2024-05-02T09:10:38 | 2024-05-02T09:10:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gciv1nOp57NNknNloT53 | Will the release of Bitcoin ETFs increase Bitcoin’s price by Feb 1 | My last question regarding this was misworded and was subsequently NAed
This new question asks if from now - until Feb 1 the price of bitcoin will increase
The base price is $44,457.20
Will Bitcoin increase or decrease from this point and will the approval of ETFs effect it’s price positively | 2024-01-12T07:51:24 | 2024-02-01T08:02:56 | 2024-02-01T08:02:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2xukSXspPSOeh6nDmKeI | Will there be a confirmed discovery of Earth-like exoplanet by NASA or another major space agency by January 31, 2024? | This market question focuses on the possibility of a major space agency like NASA, ESA (European Space Agency), or similar organizations confirming the discovery of an Earth-like exoplanet by January 31, 2024. An Earth-like exoplanet, in this context, is defined as a planet outside our solar system that closely resembl... | 2024-01-12T07:36:21 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T06:54:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4JSTplGHdksSHFo08Hve | Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added] | Resolves YES if in my opinion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)
This market ... | 2024-01-12T07:20:58 | 2024-12-26T03:56:42 | 2024-12-26T03:56:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ubaYxhYtRbwEoEeGi1mk | Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 15th February show positive growth? | The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 15th February.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (December in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution n... | 2024-01-12T00:39:45 | 2024-02-14T23:34:18 | 2024-02-14T23:34:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3JXF7aviMyQtJDljG471 | 🇯🇲 vs. 🕸️: Will Bob Marley: One Love (2024) have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (2024)? | Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web both open on Valentine’s Day 2024, and will run for a long weekend. Across the long weekend, which movie will make more money?
As this is a double-y long weekend (Valentine’s Day on the preceding week, President’s Day on the following Monday), we will be counting the full Wed-Mon ho... | 2024-01-11T23:00:54 | 2024-02-20T15:59:00 | 2024-02-20T16:53:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RHiOkz0298eGB0jiEQDP | Will the majority of judges at the ICJ vote in favour of South Africa's case against Israel? | 8 or more judges vote in favour = resolves YES
*Abstension votes count as a vote against
All the 15 judges at the International Court of Justice:
[image]More details here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel
****It seems that the judges might be 17, as th... | 2024-01-11T22:50:01 | 2024-01-26T06:18:47 | 2024-01-26T06:18:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OgseYUTE2mdyynilei41 | 📕 vs. 🕷️: Will Argylle (2024) have a larger opening weekend than Madame Web (2024)? | The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.
Will Argylle have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (according to the links above)? Will Resolve once the actuals come in for Madame Web (the later movie).
Note that... | 2024-01-11T17:26:06 | 2024-02-20T11:59:00 | 2024-02-20T16:52:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8edRTjErmJVsgoVxQri | 📕 vs. 🕷️: Will Argylle (2024) have a larger global box office than Madame Web (2024)? | The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.
Will Argylle perform better than Madame Web at the global box office (according to the links above)?
Will Resolve once both movies are out of theaters, or one has been math... | 2024-01-11T17:19:11 | 2024-04-12T07:10:27 | 2024-04-12T07:10:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dwgqJKJz9OFiFc6C9HWP | Will "Argylle" (2024) gross >$25M on its opening weekend? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Argylle" (2024) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15009428/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I wil... | 2024-01-11T16:59:31 | 2024-02-05T15:36:59 | 2024-02-05T15:36:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TfHCVzUYtTHbvh0UiIDd | If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Vermont Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary | 2024-01-11T15:13:51 | 2024-03-05T20:46:11 | 2024-03-05T20:46:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tih3e0zC4xkICM7eUlja | If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary | 2024-01-11T15:13:22 | 2024-02-29T15:14:55 | 2024-02-29T15:14:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mdHR8GGCmfPgj5oIEFYT | If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary? | Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary
edit: I'm going to resolve as Haley wins if NOTA gets the most votes and Haley get the second most votes | 2024-01-11T15:12:11 | 2024-02-07T11:07:51 | 2024-02-07T11:07:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lnL3nH47WQvADw1NNTLO | Will Nikki Haley score at least 3 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus? | Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points
[markets] | 2024-01-11T14:57:32 | 2024-01-15T20:41:27 | 2024-01-15T20:41:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dbGaQhlsRjRXEUTqB8sB | Will Nikki Haley score at least 2 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus? | Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points | 2024-01-11T14:57:26 | 2024-01-15T20:41:05 | 2024-01-15T20:41:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AbuCcm2sL3jyEv0ZkU0g | Will Nikki Haley score at least 1 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus? | Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points
[edit: resolve yes if the score is at least 1 point higher] | 2024-01-11T14:57:16 | 2024-01-15T20:40:40 | 2024-01-15T20:40:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LQaGxlRCt4E9sy0eqHAd | If Trump wins the 2024 election, will his vice president be Vivek Ramaswamy? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T12:47:19 | 2024-11-07T13:38:16 | 2024-11-07T13:38:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YC2uZVhcQvtwUA1vl6ph | Will $SOL (Solana) reaches more than $250 USD anytime within 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T11:05:18 | 2024-12-10T08:37:39 | 2024-12-10T08:37:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TpJnSDPognJnO2nCvEuO | Will $ETH (Ethereum) reaches more than $4800 USD anytime within 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T11:02:24 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:31:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xQ5IgXihYunNDcqWhemh | Will $ETH (Ethereum) reaches more than $4000 USD anytime within 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T11:01:08 | 2024-03-20T07:21:12 | 2024-03-20T07:21:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SkgwwM3PHjtesYOM2ggf | Will BTC (Bitcoin) reaches more than $65000 USD by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T10:54:37 | 2024-03-05T14:02:01 | 2024-03-05T14:02:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-K72KsMFa54Yh6yVxZ14z | Will the third starship/superheavy make it to orbit? | Will the third starship make it to orbit (YES) or will it explode/fail/lose control (NO).
It doesn’t need to return successfully or do anything up there, just complete one full trip around the earth.
I am betting in this market because I’m excited to see what happens and I want to hear what you all learn! | 2024-01-11T10:40:30 | 2024-03-27T13:42:56 | 2024-03-27T13:42:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JZKqYt0hOxSHcjOIMpFA | Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023? | Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
Data source: Met Office Hadley Centre
resolves to 50% in terms of a tie. | 2024-01-11T10:30:38 | 2025-01-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:21:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3soJzgUXFrZERyRSW0Ia | Will halland win the premier league golden boot | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T10:26:11 | 2024-05-21T05:00:16 | 2024-05-21T05:00:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bjGmR4vyZlLDV1bNuo4i | Will Israel continue the war into February? | Will be resolved 2/2/2024 | 2024-01-11T09:33:43 | 2024-02-02T23:59:00 | 2024-02-03T08:04:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-r2cXPsfHikiOsuVtJ1xp | Will Kanye 'Ye' West release any album by the end of January? (2024) | A collab album such as Vultures (which seems the most likely to release next) qualifies as a Kanye West release even if released under the ¥$ name.
Vultures has been delayed multiple times and has recently been relisted on Apple Music with a 19th Jan 2024 release date.
An album in this market is qualified by any mix... | 2024-01-11T08:58:56 | 2024-01-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-31T19:51:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g1NzYsbBQ0zakA2LbaVB | Will Apple's Vision Pro sell out within the first 24 hours? | Ruleset: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. pre-orders for Apple's Vision Pro on Apple.com are marked as sold out within the first 24 hours, beginning at 5 p.m. Pacific Time on January 19, 2024. "Sold out" is defined as the inability for customers in the U.S. to place new pre-orders for the Vision Pro on App... | 2024-01-11T08:50:24 | 2024-01-21T06:14:57 | 2024-01-21T06:14:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Fne0The0CGZkuBAVfrrm | Will Nikki Haley get 20 or more points in the Iowa caucus? | 20 or more points = 20.000… or more percent of the popular vote or most granular tally from the caucus, without rounding.
I expect them to release tallies other than delegate counts, but if only delegate counts are released, 20.000…% or more of that. | 2024-01-11T08:25:38 | 2024-01-15T23:25:58 | 2024-01-15T23:25:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DRlbNSExxyFMQrsPLKO | China gets mentioned more times than AI in the 2024 US Presidential Debates | After the presidential debates, I'll control + F transcripts of the debates and count up whether "China" + "Beijing" + "Xi" or "artificial intelligence" + "AI" (only AI when its short for artificial intelligence, not like 'aid') gets said more | 2024-01-11T07:51:23 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T11:09:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2wNbHEa5KXnGq5Na6pso | Will Sir Ed Davey resign as the leader of the Liberal Democrats by the end of February 2024? | YES if Ed Davey announces his resignation as leader of the Liberal Democrats by 23:59 on February 29th 2024. This includes if he has announced his resignation but is still in post at this time (e.g. if the contest for a new leader has not yet been completed).
NO if not. This includes if Ed Davey is removed from his... | 2024-01-11T07:03:15 | 2024-02-29T15:59:00 | 2024-02-29T22:48:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PQDK7s3g0DxqH54EWR7c | 🍎⌚ Apple watch sales banned at the end of January 2024? | Apple watch sales banned at the end of January?
RESOLUTION
Resolves the same as this market on Kalshi.
Context:
On December 27th, 2023, Apple was forced to pull the Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 from its shelves due to an ongoing patent dispute with the medical device maker Masimo involving a blood-... | 2024-01-11T05:49:40 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T07:44:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ | Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T04:50:08 | 2024-05-25T15:29:27 | 2024-05-25T15:29:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bzmyGjrZ01yMbHmQxmAq | [Metaculus] Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses? | Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins the second-most bound delegates in the 2024 Iowa R... | 2024-01-11T04:17:52 | 2024-01-16T12:24:25 | 2024-01-16T12:24:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JPl2dQxtipsFt8HBUr2I | Will the Rabbit R1 ship on time? | The first batch of Rabbit R1s is set to ship by “Easter 2024” (March 31st). — Will this actually happen?
This market will resolve to YES if there’s not a majority of the initial 10.000 buyers still waiting for their device by April 15th 2024, leaving two weeks for delivery. News from reputable sources as well as a Yo... | 2024-01-11T02:25:00 | 2024-04-15T14:48:44 | 2024-04-15T14:48:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7hWGAVPkBuZs316rcZPy | Will OpenAI release a physical AI device to compete with the Rabbit R1 and Humane Pin by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-11T00:21:23 | 2025-01-01T01:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:55:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1AV4lhiIRnwhg8mNJE4E | Will the Philadelphia Flyers beat Minnesota Wild on Jan 12? | This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Minnesota Wild @7:00pm CST
Game start at 7:00pm CST.
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Minnesota Wild win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image] | 2024-01-10T23:49:00 | 2024-01-12T19:52:39 | 2024-01-12T19:52:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Do6Lnoe27RgBteanOgU7 | Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2024? | Measured by total number of subscribers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_streaming_media_services
Note: Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+ counts as three seperate video streaming platform | 2024-01-10T18:09:49 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T15:42:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cJ4pv21NzZTakZvovBS9 | Will Donald Trump appear on the Joe Rogan podcast by November 2024? | Resolves YES if Donald Trump is an official guest on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, as listed on the official JRE episode list: https://jrelibrary.com/episode-list/
The listed episode release date must be on or before October 31, 2024. | 2024-01-10T17:51:59 | 2024-10-25T20:39:59 | 2024-10-25T20:39:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hgcYgv5NvaOuTP88V4ZH | Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2024? | Resolution according to the "Usage share of all browsers" table in this Wikipedia entry:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers
| 2024-01-10T17:18:01 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:33:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qT7kGElcTcVtBrVWpUMH | Will Hayao Miyazaki win an Oscar in 2024? | Hayao Miyazaki won a Golden Globe for The Boy and The Heron. Will he win an Oscar?
A better way to frame this question is: Will the movie The Boy and The Heron win an Oscar in 2024? | 2024-01-10T17:11:20 | 2024-03-10T18:35:46 | 2024-03-10T18:35:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xGTpCyXLFHNj5y2Ohjhs | Will 'Frostpunk 2' be released before June 30, 2024?❄️ | HEAR ME! HEAR ME! NEW LAW IN THE CITY!
[image]Release Definition: For the purposes of this market, "released" means that the game is available for purchase and download or physical purchase by the general public. Early access, beta versions, or demo releases do not count for the resolution of this market.
Criteria:
... | 2024-01-10T16:35:18 | 2024-07-01T15:14:06 | 2024-07-01T15:14:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HYPBCUKo0ZGNR5wBPBiI | Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-10T16:12:57 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-27T15:46:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y6kqV0lLzNuBD2grdxog | Will Dogecoin exceed 30 cents before December 31, 2025? | Please help me determine the proper valuation of my mining business.
This market will resolve to YES if the price of DOGE exceeds 30 cents at any time before December 31, 2025, as listed on Coinbase Pro. If Coinbase declares bankruptcy, the largest exchange by volume will be used instead.
Otherwise, the market will ... | 2024-01-10T14:36:00 | 2024-11-11T04:16:44 | 2024-11-11T04:16:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XczKPfQ04klNGEMOfMmV | Will Bitcoin Halving happen before April 20, 4:20 PM UTC? | As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks re mined ("Bitcoin Halving" - aapproximately every 4 years), ... | 2024-01-10T13:36:52 | 2024-04-19T18:32:54 | 2024-04-19T18:32:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yL1cFSj2ZUmWgdYJlMCk | Will it snow in Texas in January 2024? ⛄️ 🧊 🥶 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-10T12:52:22 | 2024-01-17T14:59:00 | 2024-01-17T20:50:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cQYKM0WWM21pgiQAQZcf | Will Man City win the 2023/24 Champions League Final? | Who will win the big trophy this year? | 2024-01-10T12:49:48 | 2024-04-19T18:36:51 | 2024-04-19T18:36:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yhICmZdhVvGCamJMXdp6 | Will 2024 be even hotter than 2023? 🥵 | Will the Global surface air temperature in 2024 be higher than the record 2023?
NOAA dataset, if there is disagreement with other reliable sources, 50% will be the settlement. | 2024-01-10T12:14:34 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:46:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RnbxSxZvZlQ7oKudoNyN | Will the Fed lower interest rates in its upcoming January meeting? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-10T11:43:55 | 2024-01-31T12:06:52 | 2024-01-31T12:06:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OOum3QVM6MC68x3VvJqm | Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 3.5% or higher? | Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 3.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview] | 2024-01-10T09:34:42 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:35:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HQamoHpmdQiZShkm5hfL | Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2024? | In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2024?
This includes Falcon a... | 2024-01-10T07:59:01 | 2025-01-01T15:30:39 | 2025-01-01T15:30:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QBhSLMHgrDp91R3gCcAr | Will any of the top 10 selling new Steam games of 2024 include an AI disclosure? | According to RPS (https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/steam-will-now-accept-the-vast-majority-of-games-using-ai-generation-but-only-with-disclosures), games can now disclose the use of AI and be accepted to Steam.
On January 1, 2025, will at least 1 of the top 10 on the revenue list (https://store.steampowered.com/charts... | 2024-01-10T06:33:51 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:42:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XZCIbB0HD7lhHI6uloy6 | Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2025? | Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2025.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be (this question)
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temp... | 2024-01-10T02:44:15 | 2025-02-08T13:56:10 | 2025-02-08T13:56:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VZzgmdOQNC4T0G84Rhrl | Will Steve Bannon's prediction that Trump will pick a woman as running mate come true? | See: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4363153-bannon-trump-woman-as-running-mate-2024/ | 2024-01-09T21:54:31 | 2024-07-15T12:26:58 | 2024-07-15T12:26:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FDtj0dTBJMZf63e9CFiN | Bitcoin $100K by Mar 31, 2025? | The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered. | 2024-01-09T21:37:36 | 2024-12-04T19:56:55 | 2024-12-04T19:56:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-SEMajxHBW6nWsBjJNwvM | Bitcoin $100K by Dec 31, 2025? | The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered. | 2024-01-09T21:35:20 | 2024-12-04T19:56:35 | 2024-12-04T19:56:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lNzH6LADhbjLaIWljOsO | Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025? | The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered. | 2024-01-09T21:34:14 | 2024-12-04T19:57:28 | 2024-12-04T19:57:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-l8ra66cSGFcBqfTW5Mxn | Will Donald Trump announce his running mate by end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet? | [image] | 2024-01-09T21:21:29 | 2024-05-05T20:59:00 | 2024-05-05T21:34:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w0Fn3GVjM2bWrQz7JdLG | Will Donald Trump announce his running mate before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-09T21:18:16 | 2024-03-07T09:16:24 | 2024-03-07T09:16:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-axCBSze2VpjbFeFx1g0A | Will Vivek Ramaswamy (YES) get more total delegates than Chris Christie (NO) in the 2024 Republican Primary? | We’re talking about the total number of delegates that each candidate will earn to the 2024 Republican National Convention here.
There’s a few delegate trackers (270 to win, Reuters, Wikipedia), I’ll pick the least bad one once we start getting results.
Were this held between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in 2016, Cruz wo... | 2024-01-09T20:43:29 | 2024-01-16T19:22:04 | 2024-01-16T19:22:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2ZgMpwPxerg2OlZVY1Mf | Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election? | this market resolves yes if 538 indicates aggregated polling in favor of the correct winner of the election.
Ie. If 538 says Trump has 50.1% chance of winning and Trump wins (and vice versa for Biden), this market resolves yes | 2024-01-09T19:33:57 | 2024-11-12T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T22:52:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lnYKO6zE5TSPN0bO1zw0 | Will any player pass for more than 350 yards in the 2024 wild card round? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-09T16:25:50 | 2024-01-16T14:56:23 | 2024-01-16T14:56:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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