id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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stringlengths 19
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stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-ChVhind3kpTGIQzUx1gI
|
Will Bitcoin Be at Over $50k by April 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:45:31
|
2024-02-12T22:01:39
|
2024-02-12T22:01:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QkdDT0IVBMQJa93tWNOb
|
Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the race for President before the end of Mar 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:06:17
|
2024-01-21T13:28:37
|
2024-01-21T13:28:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tH5hSWGn2kQSCwcMHs94
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,500 before the end of June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:02:08
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-02T08:04:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GBgWQwUWVFzIH9wq5GRj
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,000 before the end of June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:02:00
|
2024-03-11T06:37:10
|
2024-03-11T06:37:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BB4zu2Qv1nPUabCOWfWA
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $5,000 before the end of June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:01:21
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-21T07:35:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wuqlceoICEaIquEw1cN2
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $5,000 before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:01:06
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J7KOIXQBg5qkM9mwLGQX
|
Will Ethereum (ETH) price surpass $4,500 before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T15:00:56
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jzuA2W6UfxWgzSBuzuh3
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Mar 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T14:51:01
|
2024-03-28T15:18:08
|
2024-03-28T15:18:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5J1JCkyVIci7RZRRu2I9
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T14:50:47
|
2024-02-29T13:48:26
|
2024-02-29T13:48:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0Y42qgHce6JmEbyQcQk6
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T14:50:34
|
2024-01-31T15:50:35
|
2024-01-31T15:50:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xMLv2aSwoGeRQPG0Su0w
|
Will Bitcoin price surpass $50,000 before the end of Feb 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T13:45:34
|
2024-02-12T12:10:02
|
2024-02-12T12:10:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hQHxBf8JG7WBBYARvSxB
|
Will the world's first trillionaire emerge by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T13:14:58
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-16T06:18:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dKRuptMSKMAUZ17mnU3u
|
Will Nvidia's share price break $1000 in 2024?
|
This market is trying to track real price change. If there is split or reverse split, the price will be treated as no split or reverse split happen.
|
2024-01-13T09:07:16
|
2024-05-22T14:15:28
|
2024-05-22T14:15:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4YzNZweMvRoySsImSq8r
|
Will Bitcoin price be above $55,000 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T08:31:51
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:32:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fGcRITttlYUhJdr9hA0e
|
Will Bitcoin price be above $50,000 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T08:31:38
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JSs6MXEbJgXUglYTrNFD
|
Will Bitcoin price be above $45,000 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T08:31:30
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lGLRxVVTVX6vC8QHkM9C
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5500 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T07:28:00
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TfizyFM6XShmP6TkBK0W
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 4500 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T07:27:52
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:29:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRokbGHsHvFHpw0h9Bkr
|
Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T07:26:38
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qowwepu7nBfpaNyTIzPK
|
Will GPT-4.5 be released in January?
|
Can be private or alpha or on a waitlist as long as some official announcement is made.
Previous GPT-4.5 speculations:
@/Mira/what-modalities-will-gpt-45-have-ja
@/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-able-to-read-ascii-a
@/SemioticRivalry/will-gpt-45-come-out-in-december
@/Mira/will-gpt-45-be-announced-by-october
|
2024-01-13T07:14:38
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-04T08:27:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yxh7mccvCe7h2d9pynvo
|
Will ETH price break 3200 USD before March 1st?
|
Will ETH break 3200 usd before 1st of March atleast once
|
2024-01-13T07:14:01
|
2024-02-26T20:35:05
|
2024-02-26T20:35:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CsVBUqykUPXLn2IPOlrI
|
Will Bitcoin price surpass $80,000 before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T05:51:24
|
2024-11-10T05:41:00
|
2024-11-10T05:41:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5J6ltYRjW6I1NkAMeeG
|
Will Bitcoin price surpass $90,000 before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-13T05:51:15
|
2024-11-14T18:26:24
|
2024-11-14T18:26:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aALC07J3KcLjfrAmcZx6
|
If Trump won the election, Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?
|
If Trump won the election, Will the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024?
Conditional on Trump winning the 2024 presidential election, this market will resolve YES if the S&P 500 be above 5000 at the end of 2024
Resolves NA if Trump didnt win the 2024 presidential election
Compare the price with this market to estimate whether Biden's or Trump's election will have a more positive impact on the stock market.
[markets]
|
2024-01-13T05:43:02
|
2024-12-30T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:31:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0I5Ud3F6iS0QbC5DNEnl
|
Will Israel invade Lebanon by the end of 2024?
|
I will use the Cambridge dictionary definition of invasion to determine the outcome and i will update the description: "the act of entering a place by force, often in large numbers." and "an occasion when an army or country uses force to enter and take control of another country" ~https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/invasion
So if the Israeli military enters Lebanon in big numbers in an aim of invasion/take control of parts/the entirety of Lebanon it will be resolved to yes. Like Russia is invading parts of Ukraine but for Lebanon.
EDIT:
According to the definition I used to determine if it is an invasion which is the Cambridge dictionary definition the market is resolved to YES.
EDIT 2:
I know i have worded the original question too broad it shouldve been a ground invasion but most of the people has invested just judging on the title and the definition.
EDIT 3:
Everything after the defenition was an attempt to rephrase and i admit it was badly written. But what is happening is a massive air invasion and attacks on the capital so the market must resolve to YES
EDIT 4:
I am ready to repay everyone who thinks it is unfair or judged my market on the last* part.
EDIT 5:
To those who asked what was meant by "Like Russia/Ukraine" it was meant to be a suddent attack no matter what the aggressor calls it in this case "special military operation" but it was clearly an invasion and this is clearly an invasion
|
2024-01-13T05:36:29
|
2024-09-30T15:10:19
|
2024-10-01T00:00:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PG64g9nhE7KcvrEDYopG
|
Will Texas experience a severe outage event before February?
|
Will Texas experience a severe, large-scale power outage in the coming weeks? In order to resolve YES, such an outage must affect at least 300,000 people and make national news.
This question was inspired by a NYT article (
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/13/us/texas-power-grid-winter-weather.html
). Quoting:
“Mr. Abbott said the mornings of Tuesday and Wednesday were likely to pose the biggest challenges to the grid but added that the state’s power generators have ‘never been as prepared for a winter event as they are today.’
At the same time, the state has added new residents and businesses, creating new strains on the grid. Demand for electricity reached and then surpassed previous records several times over the summer. And Texans collectively are expected to use more electricity during the coming cold snap than during the previous winter peak, reached during the last ‘hard freeze’ in December 2022.
‘It will probably shatter the wintertime demand,’ said Daniel Cohan, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Rice University in Houston. ‘But if ERCOT’s forecasts hold true, the lights should stay on,’ he added, referring to the operator of the state’s grid, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.“
|
2024-01-13T04:53:53
|
2024-02-01T23:59:00
|
2024-02-02T08:41:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7wewtGWkuvFdZqPzLpo9
|
A Government to confirm the existence of alien 👽 life on earth 🌎 by 2025.
|
It should be an official communication made by a country or a government employee who as assigned to break the news to the public ie spokesperson.
|
2024-01-13T03:47:08
|
2024-12-31T15:51:00
|
2025-01-31T23:19:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OKo3cJaFBJMiKgBCmBmY
|
Will the Dollar and Euro reach parity again in 2024?
|
If $1 = €1 in 2024 then this market resolves as yes.
|
2024-01-12T23:00:22
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-11T05:48:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bZ8K3Qz49yEuz6WqOxKM
|
Will global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2024, according to Berkeley Earth?
|
Berkeley Earth releases a Global Temperature Report each January that includes the previous year's global annual average temperature according to their data.
For 2023, Berkeley Earth reported global warming was 1.54 °C.
This question resolves YES if Berkeley Earth reports that annual average warming is equal to or higher than 1.50 degrees Celsius in 2024.
For easy reference, here are Berkeley Earth's past numbers going back to 2010:
[image]Same question but for:
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-global-warming-be-2-celsius-or)
|
2024-01-12T19:44:16
|
2025-01-12T23:59:00
|
2025-01-13T00:25:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AAYXWb9dRBFuBzDnthuo
|
Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) be the lowest grossing of the series?
|
Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th, 2024. The previous movies have made quite a bit of money, data per TheNumbers:
Kung Fu Panda: $631.9M
Kung Fu Panda 2: $664.8M
Kung Fu Panda 3: $521.1M (see pinned comment, TheNumber is wrong about this total)
Will Kung Fu Panda 4 make less money than Panda 3, the lowest grossing film in the series, at the global box office?
This will Resolve when Kung Fu Panda 4 passes the third film at the worldwide box office, when Panda 4 is out of theatres, or when this is deemed to be mathematically impossible.
Also bet on
[markets]
|
2024-01-12T17:47:04
|
2024-05-10T23:59:00
|
2024-05-11T10:27:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yQCVg84Mh8xDRwYmW9O2
|
Will Elon Musk vote for Donald Trump in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to YES if Elon Musk states that he voted for Donald Trump or otherwise indicates very strong support for his candidacy before the end of 2024. If Elon Musk does not do this or Donald Trump is not a candidate for the 2024 presidential election, this market will resolve to NO.
Examples for clarity:
Elon tweeting "everyone should go vote for Trump" would be enough evidence to resolve YES
Elon tweeting "Joe Biden is the worse candidate" or "I refuse to vote for Joe Biden" or supporting something that Trump says would not be enough to resolve YES, since they are not direct advocacy for voting for Trump.
I won't bet on this market.
|
2024-01-12T17:35:13
|
2024-11-07T22:55:36
|
2024-11-07T22:55:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qwwje4fY4O4JOpV5Ikta
|
🐼 vs. 🪱: Will Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) have a better opening weekend than Dune: Part Two (2024)?
|
Kung Fu Panda 4 (2024) opens March 8th and Dune: Part Two (2024) opens March 1st. Which movie will make more money in its opening weekend?
This will Resolve when the actuals come in for Kung Fu Panda (likely on Monday/Tuesday).
Also bet on
[markets]
|
2024-01-12T17:26:44
|
2024-03-12T12:24:16
|
2024-03-12T12:24:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VVsshCEUFUrFy6qz3XzY
|
Will there be a death at a Trump Rally in 2024?
|
This is the fourth on my markets I am creating based on this article
Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.
Death at a Trump rally
BY JULIA AZARI
Julia Azari is a professor of political science at Marquette University.
Political violence can be very disruptive, and it’s usually not planned. Here’s one scenario.
On Oct. 19, a fight breaks out at a Trump rally in Tampa, Florida. A group of five white men in their early 50s looked like standard rally-goers. But as they catch the attention of one of the many TV cameras in the arena, the group pulls out protest signs reading: TRUMP LIES and SAVE DEMOCRACY NOW. They had done similar protest actions together for years — anti-war protests, national political conventions and a few Trump events. Part politics, part reunion for longtime friends who had met in college protesting the first Gulf War.
What happens next is disputed. A couple attending their seventh Trump rally say that the protesters started pushing when people around them chanted insults. Other accounts say the Trump supporters initiated the fighting. However it happened, one of the five protesters suffered a heart attack. He is rushed to a local hospital but dies a few hours later.
News media scramble to cover the event, and the public can’t look away. A clear narrative proves elusive. Was the protester’s demise simply a random tragedy? Or a sign of the dangers of an increasingly violent time in American politics?
Pundits’ debates over these questions, interspersed with interviews with the deceased man’s friends, grieving widow and eloquent, angry teenaged children dominate the remaining weeks of the campaign. These stories drown out much of Biden’s messages about declining unemployment and legislative victories and distract from Trump’s slogans about immigrants and making America great again. The poignancy of the story draws in some Americans who paid little attention to politics, but for close watchers of politics, it was irresistible. Some question why the matter gets so much press when violence against people of color draws a fraction of the coverage. Others call for the suspension of Trump’s campaign, which leads to a whole new set of arguments about whether this was just a pretext to push him out of politics once again. One cable network devotes an hourlong program to a panel discussion about whether the Biden administration has done enough to curb political violence.
And so it continues, until Election Day.
Will resolve YES : If this article comes true and there is at least one death at a Trump Rally that can be attributed to violence. (Violence must have been a factor in precipitating that death -- just someone randomly passes away due to dehydration or a heart attack does not count)
Although the article sets a Election Day Timeline, I am going to keep this open till Inauguration Day in 2025 and any death until then will count. It has to be a Trump Rally (i.e. Trump must have been present at the rally). Violence & Death can happen before or after his presence at the rally within the same day.
No Otherwise
|
2024-01-12T16:52:59
|
2024-07-25T09:19:10
|
2024-07-25T09:19:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wKrIEBX4jbe8Kt2hPhGU
|
Will Bitcoin hit 30K in Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-12T16:06:38
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-01T23:29:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZGTWm3eWnKlrxFLg8QWT
|
Will Taylor Swift get married before Bitcoin reaches $100K USD?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-12T14:46:32
|
2024-12-04T20:00:47
|
2024-12-04T20:00:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yzGprXF0HamPao0RX0Ql
|
Will anyone get frostbite at an NFL game this weekend?
|
Resolves on credible sports news source reporting a player or person at the game was being treated for "frostbite" specifically. Will wait to resolve until Monday.
|
2024-01-12T11:01:31
|
2024-01-16T06:26:44
|
2024-01-16T06:26:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DkgSQWoq3wWmT5eVNVcB
|
Will the Texans beat the Browns in the first round of the playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-12T10:17:22
|
2024-01-14T16:40:04
|
2024-01-14T16:40:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ez4EquPhvNzGj5Ss7ZTK
|
Will the Chiefs beat the Dolphins?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-12T10:04:39
|
2024-01-13T20:59:00
|
2024-01-15T07:14:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vkoQNTnaevStxeTJ7QrX
|
Will AI be mentioned at all in the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
|
This is like the original market (https://manifold.markets/MatthewBarnett/will-ai-be-a-major-topic-during-the) but it resolves YES if artificial intelligence is mentioned at least once in one of the debates.
|
2024-01-12T09:28:51
|
2024-09-14T13:49:15
|
2024-09-14T13:49:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pmqH4oJe1ZpAKATKavpT
|
2024 US Elections: Will Trump always have the highest odds?
|
This market will resolve YES, if
by the US elections (and after the creation of this market)
Donald Trump keeps being the favorite to win them.
As estimated per aggregate of various prediction markets, ElectionBettingOdds
[image]
|
2024-01-12T08:46:45
|
2024-05-02T09:10:38
|
2024-05-02T09:10:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gciv1nOp57NNknNloT53
|
Will the release of Bitcoin ETFs increase Bitcoin’s price by Feb 1
|
My last question regarding this was misworded and was subsequently NAed
This new question asks if from now - until Feb 1 the price of bitcoin will increase
The base price is $44,457.20
Will Bitcoin increase or decrease from this point and will the approval of ETFs effect it’s price positively
|
2024-01-12T07:51:24
|
2024-02-01T08:02:56
|
2024-02-01T08:02:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2xukSXspPSOeh6nDmKeI
|
Will there be a confirmed discovery of Earth-like exoplanet by NASA or another major space agency by January 31, 2024?
|
This market question focuses on the possibility of a major space agency like NASA, ESA (European Space Agency), or similar organizations confirming the discovery of an Earth-like exoplanet by January 31, 2024. An Earth-like exoplanet, in this context, is defined as a planet outside our solar system that closely resembles Earth in key aspects such as size, composition, and orbit within a habitable zone that could potentially support life.
|
2024-01-12T07:36:21
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T06:54:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4JSTplGHdksSHFo08Hve
|
Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]
|
Resolves YES if in my opinion there has been a major public-facing breakthrough in AI equivilent to the launch of ChatGPT or Midjourney/StableDiffusion. I wont participate or trade in this market unless its to make a quick buck off some volatility (I wont hold a position at market close at the very least)
This market is more likely to resolve YES if:
*There is a development in AI that is being talked about by people I know in real life who aren't that interested in AI such as my parents or my brother
* There is a development in AI that I personally am very excited about because it seems like a big leap forward
This market is more likely to resolve NO if:
*The situation is largely the same as today regarding consumer facing AIs. ie Midjourney still uses discord and has only slightly improved if at all. ChatGPT is largely the same. Googles AIs aren't talked about by normal people. And any new products are niche and uknown to the public
|
2024-01-12T07:20:58
|
2024-12-26T03:56:42
|
2024-12-26T03:56:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ubaYxhYtRbwEoEeGi1mk
|
Will the UK's monthly GDP figure published on 15th February show positive growth?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest monthly GDP reading at 7:00 UK time on Thursday 15th February.
This is the month-on-month figure - released around six weeks after the end of the month that is being measured (December in this case).
Will this reading show positive growth?
Resolution notes:
A reading of 0.0% resolves to NO
This market resolves based on the reading published on the day, future revisions are not relevant
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-change-the
@/SimonGrayson/how-high-will-the-uks-cpi-inflation
@/SimonGrayson/where-will-the-uks-ftse-100-end-202
|
2024-01-12T00:39:45
|
2024-02-14T23:34:18
|
2024-02-14T23:34:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3JXF7aviMyQtJDljG471
|
🇯🇲 vs. 🕸️: Will Bob Marley: One Love (2024) have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (2024)?
|
Bob Marley: One Love and Madame Web both open on Valentine’s Day 2024, and will run for a long weekend. Across the long weekend, which movie will make more money?
As this is a double-y long weekend (Valentine’s Day on the preceding week, President’s Day on the following Monday), we will be counting the full Wed-Mon holiday period when both films will be open. This will mean adding a few numbers on the BoxOfficeMojo site.
This will Resolve when the actuals come in for the movies (most likely on Tuesday for the long, President’s day holiday).
|
2024-01-11T23:00:54
|
2024-02-20T15:59:00
|
2024-02-20T16:53:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RHiOkz0298eGB0jiEQDP
|
Will the majority of judges at the ICJ vote in favour of South Africa's case against Israel?
|
8 or more judges vote in favour = resolves YES
*Abstension votes count as a vote against
All the 15 judges at the International Court of Justice:
[image]More details here:
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/11/a-quick-guide-to-south-africas-icj-case-against-israel
****It seems that the judges might be 17, as they'll have an additional one for each South Africa and Israel. In that case the majority of votes would need to be 9 out of 17. Nothing change re the title of the market btw.
|
2024-01-11T22:50:01
|
2024-01-26T06:18:47
|
2024-01-26T06:18:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OgseYUTE2mdyynilei41
|
📕 vs. 🕷️: Will Argylle (2024) have a larger opening weekend than Madame Web (2024)?
|
The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.
Will Argylle have a better opening weekend than Madame Web (according to the links above)? Will Resolve once the actuals come in for Madame Web (the later movie).
Note that even though Madame Web opens on a Wednesday, BoxOfficeMojo reports both the extended and 3day totals. We will be using the 3day total to compare fairly with Argylle.
|
2024-01-11T17:26:06
|
2024-02-20T11:59:00
|
2024-02-20T16:52:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8edRTjErmJVsgoVxQri
|
📕 vs. 🕷️: Will Argylle (2024) have a larger global box office than Madame Web (2024)?
|
The February Flop showdown: Argylle (2024) comes out on February 2nd, Madame Web (2024) will be out on February 14th. Neither’s going to do well.
Will Argylle perform better than Madame Web at the global box office (according to the links above)?
Will Resolve once both movies are out of theaters, or one has been mathematically eliminated.
|
2024-01-11T17:19:11
|
2024-04-12T07:10:27
|
2024-04-12T07:10:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dwgqJKJz9OFiFc6C9HWP
|
Will "Argylle" (2024) gross >$25M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Argylle" (2024) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt15009428/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by February 9th, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image]
|
2024-01-11T16:59:31
|
2024-02-05T15:36:59
|
2024-02-05T15:36:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TfHCVzUYtTHbvh0UiIDd
|
If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Vermont Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary
|
2024-01-11T15:13:51
|
2024-03-05T20:46:11
|
2024-03-05T20:46:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tih3e0zC4xkICM7eUlja
|
If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 South Carolina Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary
|
2024-01-11T15:13:22
|
2024-02-29T15:14:55
|
2024-02-29T15:14:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mdHR8GGCmfPgj5oIEFYT
|
If Trump is still in the race, will Nikki Haley win the 2024 Nevada Republican presidential primary?
|
Resolves N/A if Trump dropped out of the presidential race before the primary
edit: I'm going to resolve as Haley wins if NOTA gets the most votes and Haley get the second most votes
|
2024-01-11T15:12:11
|
2024-02-07T11:07:51
|
2024-02-07T11:07:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lnL3nH47WQvADw1NNTLO
|
Will Nikki Haley score at least 3 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus?
|
Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points
[markets]
|
2024-01-11T14:57:32
|
2024-01-15T20:41:27
|
2024-01-15T20:41:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dbGaQhlsRjRXEUTqB8sB
|
Will Nikki Haley score at least 2 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus?
|
Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points
|
2024-01-11T14:57:26
|
2024-01-15T20:41:05
|
2024-01-15T20:41:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AbuCcm2sL3jyEv0ZkU0g
|
Will Nikki Haley score at least 1 point higher than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus?
|
Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points
[edit: resolve yes if the score is at least 1 point higher]
|
2024-01-11T14:57:16
|
2024-01-15T20:40:40
|
2024-01-15T20:40:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LQaGxlRCt4E9sy0eqHAd
|
If Trump wins the 2024 election, will his vice president be Vivek Ramaswamy?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T12:47:19
|
2024-11-07T13:38:16
|
2024-11-07T13:38:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YC2uZVhcQvtwUA1vl6ph
|
Will $SOL (Solana) reaches more than $250 USD anytime within 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T11:05:18
|
2024-12-10T08:37:39
|
2024-12-10T08:37:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TpJnSDPognJnO2nCvEuO
|
Will $ETH (Ethereum) reaches more than $4800 USD anytime within 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T11:02:24
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:31:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xQ5IgXihYunNDcqWhemh
|
Will $ETH (Ethereum) reaches more than $4000 USD anytime within 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T11:01:08
|
2024-03-20T07:21:12
|
2024-03-20T07:21:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SkgwwM3PHjtesYOM2ggf
|
Will BTC (Bitcoin) reaches more than $65000 USD by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T10:54:37
|
2024-03-05T14:02:01
|
2024-03-05T14:02:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K72KsMFa54Yh6yVxZ14z
|
Will the third starship/superheavy make it to orbit?
|
Will the third starship make it to orbit (YES) or will it explode/fail/lose control (NO).
It doesn’t need to return successfully or do anything up there, just complete one full trip around the earth.
I am betting in this market because I’m excited to see what happens and I want to hear what you all learn!
|
2024-01-11T10:40:30
|
2024-03-27T13:42:56
|
2024-03-27T13:42:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JZKqYt0hOxSHcjOIMpFA
|
Will the average global temperature in 2024 exceed 2023?
|
Resolve according to the "mean" average temperature reported in this webpage
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/temperature-anomaly
Data source: Met Office Hadley Centre
resolves to 50% in terms of a tie.
|
2024-01-11T10:30:38
|
2025-01-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:21:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3soJzgUXFrZERyRSW0Ia
|
Will halland win the premier league golden boot
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T10:26:11
|
2024-05-21T05:00:16
|
2024-05-21T05:00:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bjGmR4vyZlLDV1bNuo4i
|
Will Israel continue the war into February?
|
Will be resolved 2/2/2024
|
2024-01-11T09:33:43
|
2024-02-02T23:59:00
|
2024-02-03T08:04:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r2cXPsfHikiOsuVtJ1xp
|
Will Kanye 'Ye' West release any album by the end of January? (2024)
|
A collab album such as Vultures (which seems the most likely to release next) qualifies as a Kanye West release even if released under the ¥$ name.
Vultures has been delayed multiple times and has recently been relisted on Apple Music with a 19th Jan 2024 release date.
An album in this market is qualified by any mixtape or EP as long as it has more than 5 full-length tracks (excluding shorter interludes, in the vein of Donda chant or skits for example).
In the event of a 'Donda 2' style release, where it's not available on streaming services or to be traditionally purchased, the market will resolve NO.
|
2024-01-11T08:58:56
|
2024-01-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-31T19:51:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g1NzYsbBQ0zakA2LbaVB
|
Will Apple's Vision Pro sell out within the first 24 hours?
|
Ruleset: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. pre-orders for Apple's Vision Pro on Apple.com are marked as sold out within the first 24 hours, beginning at 5 p.m. Pacific Time on January 19, 2024. "Sold out" is defined as the inability for customers in the U.S. to place new pre-orders for the Vision Pro on Apple.com due to all available units being claimed. Should Apple.com show that all available units for the U.S. have been claimed within the specified time frame, the market will resolve immediately to "Yes". If Apple.com shows that customers in the U.S. are still able to place pre-orders after the first 24 hours, the market will resolve to "No".
Expiry Date: January 21, 2024
|
2024-01-11T08:50:24
|
2024-01-21T06:14:57
|
2024-01-21T06:14:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fne0The0CGZkuBAVfrrm
|
Will Nikki Haley get 20 or more points in the Iowa caucus?
|
20 or more points = 20.000… or more percent of the popular vote or most granular tally from the caucus, without rounding.
I expect them to release tallies other than delegate counts, but if only delegate counts are released, 20.000…% or more of that.
|
2024-01-11T08:25:38
|
2024-01-15T23:25:58
|
2024-01-15T23:25:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3DRlbNSExxyFMQrsPLKO
|
China gets mentioned more times than AI in the 2024 US Presidential Debates
|
After the presidential debates, I'll control + F transcripts of the debates and count up whether "China" + "Beijing" + "Xi" or "artificial intelligence" + "AI" (only AI when its short for artificial intelligence, not like 'aid') gets said more
|
2024-01-11T07:51:23
|
2024-11-06T20:59:00
|
2024-11-07T11:09:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2wNbHEa5KXnGq5Na6pso
|
Will Sir Ed Davey resign as the leader of the Liberal Democrats by the end of February 2024?
|
YES if Ed Davey announces his resignation as leader of the Liberal Democrats by 23:59 on February 29th 2024. This includes if he has announced his resignation but is still in post at this time (e.g. if the contest for a new leader has not yet been completed).
NO if not. This includes if Ed Davey is removed from his position by his party rather than resigning.
|
2024-01-11T07:03:15
|
2024-02-29T15:59:00
|
2024-02-29T22:48:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PQDK7s3g0DxqH54EWR7c
|
🍎⌚ Apple watch sales banned at the end of January 2024?
|
Apple watch sales banned at the end of January?
RESOLUTION
Resolves the same as this market on Kalshi.
Context:
On December 27th, 2023, Apple was forced to pull the Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 from its shelves due to an ongoing patent dispute with the medical device maker Masimo involving a blood-oxygen sensor. The ban was temporarily lifted the next day, giving Apple a brief window to alter its watches and come into compliance, but a ruling on the matter is expected on January 12th.₁
Decoding the market:
Case for Banned
Apple is currently involved in a patent dispute with medical device maker Masimo regarding a blood-oxygen sensor used in their watches. Specifically, the company was forced to stop selling its Apple Watch Series 9 and Apple Watch Ultra 2 in late December after running afoul of the International Trade Commission (ITC), although the ban was temporarily lifted after one day. Apple is accused of using collaboration discussions to poach Masimo employees and steal trade secrets. As Masimo points out, its case has the support of 'two dozen academic institutions, leading antitrust and intellectual property scholars, physicians, investors, nonprofits, and members of Congress.'
Case for Not banned
As mentioned above, the Apple Watch ban was temporarily lifted, which gives the company time to alter its product software in order to come into compliance. This could render the entire issue moot. The company could also reach a settlement agreement with Masimo, allowing it to continue to use the disputed technology in its current form. And, of course, it is possible Apple, which claims that Masimo's patent claims are invalid, could win on appeal as it did in a similar case with a company called AliveCor.
Clarifications:
1/18/2024: If Apple is banned from importing/selling the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 on Jan 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. Outcome verified from Apple.
1/22/2024: Added "Decoding The Market" From Kalshi.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2024-01-11T05:49:40
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T07:44:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5iVl2XinS06zpUXwQRaQ
|
Will Manchester United👹 make it to Europe🇪🇺next season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T04:50:08
|
2024-05-25T15:29:27
|
2024-05-25T15:29:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bzmyGjrZ01yMbHmQxmAq
|
[Metaculus] Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
|
Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/21005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley wins the second-most bound delegates in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-11T04:17:52
|
2024-01-16T12:24:25
|
2024-01-16T12:24:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JPl2dQxtipsFt8HBUr2I
|
Will the Rabbit R1 ship on time?
|
The first batch of Rabbit R1s is set to ship by “Easter 2024” (March 31st). — Will this actually happen?
This market will resolve to YES if there’s not a majority of the initial 10.000 buyers still waiting for their device by April 15th 2024, leaving two weeks for delivery. News from reputable sources as well as a Youtube videos (unboxing, reviews, etc.) from “regular users” (smaller accounts other than big tech channels) will be used to determine whether there’s been a delay.
|
2024-01-11T02:25:00
|
2024-04-15T14:48:44
|
2024-04-15T14:48:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7hWGAVPkBuZs316rcZPy
|
Will OpenAI release a physical AI device to compete with the Rabbit R1 and Humane Pin by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-11T00:21:23
|
2025-01-01T01:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:55:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1AV4lhiIRnwhg8mNJE4E
|
Will the Philadelphia Flyers beat Minnesota Wild on Jan 12?
|
This is a NHL Live Action Sports market. You may bet before, during and slightly after the game.
Philadelphia Flyers vs Minnesota Wild @7:00pm CST
Game start at 7:00pm CST.
Resolves YES or NO .
Resolves Yes if Minnesota Wild win.
Hockey games don't tie. Shootout is to the death.
[image]
|
2024-01-10T23:49:00
|
2024-01-12T19:52:39
|
2024-01-12T19:52:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Do6Lnoe27RgBteanOgU7
|
Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2024?
|
Measured by total number of subscribers
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_streaming_media_services
Note: Disney+, Hulu, ESPN+ counts as three seperate video streaming platform
|
2024-01-10T18:09:49
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:42:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cJ4pv21NzZTakZvovBS9
|
Will Donald Trump appear on the Joe Rogan podcast by November 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Donald Trump is an official guest on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast, as listed on the official JRE episode list: https://jrelibrary.com/episode-list/
The listed episode release date must be on or before October 31, 2024.
|
2024-01-10T17:51:59
|
2024-10-25T20:39:59
|
2024-10-25T20:39:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hgcYgv5NvaOuTP88V4ZH
|
Will Edge remain the 3rd most popular browser by the end of 2024?
|
Resolution according to the "Usage share of all browsers" table in this Wikipedia entry:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers
|
2024-01-10T17:18:01
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:33:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qT7kGElcTcVtBrVWpUMH
|
Will Hayao Miyazaki win an Oscar in 2024?
|
Hayao Miyazaki won a Golden Globe for The Boy and The Heron. Will he win an Oscar?
A better way to frame this question is: Will the movie The Boy and The Heron win an Oscar in 2024?
|
2024-01-10T17:11:20
|
2024-03-10T18:35:46
|
2024-03-10T18:35:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xGTpCyXLFHNj5y2Ohjhs
|
Will 'Frostpunk 2' be released before June 30, 2024?❄️
|
HEAR ME! HEAR ME! NEW LAW IN THE CITY!
[image]Release Definition: For the purposes of this market, "released" means that the game is available for purchase and download or physical purchase by the general public. Early access, beta versions, or demo releases do not count for the resolution of this market.
Criteria:
YES Resolution: This market resolves to YES if the video game 'Frostpunk 2', developed by 11 Bit Studios, is officially released to the public on or before June 30, 2024. The release must be confirmed through official channels, such as the game's official website, official social media accounts of 11 Bit Studios, or recognized gaming news outlets.
NO Resolution: If 'Frostpunk 2' is not released by June 30, 2024, or if there is no clear confirmation of its release by this date, the market will resolve to NO.
The City Must Survive, The City Must Not Fall
|
2024-01-10T16:35:18
|
2024-07-01T15:14:06
|
2024-07-01T15:14:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HYPBCUKo0ZGNR5wBPBiI
|
Will China invade or blockade Taiwan by the end 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-10T16:12:57
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-27T15:46:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y6kqV0lLzNuBD2grdxog
|
Will Dogecoin exceed 30 cents before December 31, 2025?
|
Please help me determine the proper valuation of my mining business.
This market will resolve to YES if the price of DOGE exceeds 30 cents at any time before December 31, 2025, as listed on Coinbase Pro. If Coinbase declares bankruptcy, the largest exchange by volume will be used instead.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2024-01-10T14:36:00
|
2024-11-11T04:16:44
|
2024-11-11T04:16:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XczKPfQ04klNGEMOfMmV
|
Will Bitcoin Halving happen before April 20, 4:20 PM UTC?
|
As part of Bitcoin's coin issuance, miners are rewarded a certain amount of bitcoins whenever a block is produced (approximately every 10 minutes). When Bitcoin first started, 50 Bitcoins per block were given as a reward to miners. After every 210,000 blocks re mined ("Bitcoin Halving" - aapproximately every 4 years), the block reward halves and will keep on halving until the block reward per block becomes 0 (approximately by year 2140).
The next Bitcoin halving date is scheduled to take place at block 840,000.
This market will resolve to YES, if Bitcoin block #840,000 is mined before April 20, 4:20 PM UTC. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO.
As of now, the block reward is 6.25 coins per block and will decrease to 3.125 BTC per block post-halving.
Watch the current block and new blocks being mined at https://timechaincalendar.com/en or http://mempool.space
[image][link preview]
|
2024-01-10T13:36:52
|
2024-04-19T18:32:54
|
2024-04-19T18:32:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yL1cFSj2ZUmWgdYJlMCk
|
Will it snow in Texas in January 2024? ⛄️ 🧊 🥶
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-10T12:52:22
|
2024-01-17T14:59:00
|
2024-01-17T20:50:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cQYKM0WWM21pgiQAQZcf
|
Will Man City win the 2023/24 Champions League Final?
|
Who will win the big trophy this year?
|
2024-01-10T12:49:48
|
2024-04-19T18:36:51
|
2024-04-19T18:36:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yhICmZdhVvGCamJMXdp6
|
Will 2024 be even hotter than 2023? 🥵
|
Will the Global surface air temperature in 2024 be higher than the record 2023?
NOAA dataset, if there is disagreement with other reliable sources, 50% will be the settlement.
|
2024-01-10T12:14:34
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:46:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RnbxSxZvZlQ7oKudoNyN
|
Will the Fed lower interest rates in its upcoming January meeting?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-10T11:43:55
|
2024-01-31T12:06:52
|
2024-01-31T12:06:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OOum3QVM6MC68x3VvJqm
|
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 3.5% or higher?
|
Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 3.5% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview]
|
2024-01-10T09:34:42
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:35:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HQamoHpmdQiZShkm5hfL
|
Will SpaceX conduct at least half of all successful orbital launches in 2024?
|
In 2022, there were 178 successful orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy rockets accounted for 61 of them, or 34% of successful launches.
In 2023, Falcon rockets accounted for 96 out of 211, or 45%.
Will SpaceX be responsible for over half of successful orbital launches in 2024?
This includes Falcon and Starship (and in theory other SpaceX rockets), and only counts successes. Resolution will be based on the Wikipedia counts as of ~ 2025-01-03, assuming they appear up to date and not in dispute. Resolution will be delayed if required.
|
2024-01-10T07:59:01
|
2025-01-01T15:30:39
|
2025-01-01T15:30:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QBhSLMHgrDp91R3gCcAr
|
Will any of the top 10 selling new Steam games of 2024 include an AI disclosure?
|
According to RPS (https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/steam-will-now-accept-the-vast-majority-of-games-using-ai-generation-but-only-with-disclosures), games can now disclose the use of AI and be accepted to Steam.
On January 1, 2025, will at least 1 of the top 10 on the revenue list (https://store.steampowered.com/charts/topselling/US) that were released in 2024 have an 'AI disclosure' listed on their Steam sales page or wherever Steam ends up putting such disclosures?
Resolves to YES if true, NO if false.
Note that this is the top 10 such games released in 2024. Games that were released, including Early Access, to the public on any platform prior to 2024 do not count, including closely adhering remakes and re-releases (games such as the planned remake of Persona 3 would be not count, but something like the new Final Fantasy 7 games that are almost entirely new content would count).
I authorize the mods to resolve this on January 1, 2025 if I am too busy or otherwise can't do so, so that we get the right list easily.
|
2024-01-10T06:33:51
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:42:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XZCIbB0HD7lhHI6uloy6
|
Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2025.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be (this question)
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416
@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before
@/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ba1e9ced21b7
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-9cd12d2b6612
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-263502d92c27
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-c57aceafb9dc
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ee6f81c4458a
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198
Other questions for 2025:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d
@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
Other reference points for room temperature superconductors:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8
@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-039aff3aa191
Room Temperature is defined as between 0 and 30 centigrade. Ambient Pressure is defined as between 0.5 and 2 atmospheres.
Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Meissner_effect.ogv
|
2024-01-10T02:44:15
|
2025-02-08T13:56:10
|
2025-02-08T13:56:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VZzgmdOQNC4T0G84Rhrl
|
Will Steve Bannon's prediction that Trump will pick a woman as running mate come true?
|
See: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4363153-bannon-trump-woman-as-running-mate-2024/
|
2024-01-09T21:54:31
|
2024-07-15T12:26:58
|
2024-07-15T12:26:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FDtj0dTBJMZf63e9CFiN
|
Bitcoin $100K by Mar 31, 2025?
|
The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered.
|
2024-01-09T21:37:36
|
2024-12-04T19:56:55
|
2024-12-04T19:56:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SEMajxHBW6nWsBjJNwvM
|
Bitcoin $100K by Dec 31, 2025?
|
The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered.
|
2024-01-09T21:35:20
|
2024-12-04T19:56:35
|
2024-12-04T19:56:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lNzH6LADhbjLaIWljOsO
|
Bitcoin $100K by July 31, 2025?
|
The price from Coinbase API (US) will be chosen as the deciding price. If Coinbase doesn't exist by then, the price of the largest US Crypto Exchange will be considered.
|
2024-01-09T21:34:14
|
2024-12-04T19:57:28
|
2024-12-04T19:57:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l8ra66cSGFcBqfTW5Mxn
|
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate by end of Cinco de Mayo 2024, the 8th anniversary of his Taco Bowl Tweet?
|
[image]
|
2024-01-09T21:21:29
|
2024-05-05T20:59:00
|
2024-05-05T21:34:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w0Fn3GVjM2bWrQz7JdLG
|
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T21:18:16
|
2024-03-07T09:16:24
|
2024-03-07T09:16:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-axCBSze2VpjbFeFx1g0A
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy (YES) get more total delegates than Chris Christie (NO) in the 2024 Republican Primary?
|
We’re talking about the total number of delegates that each candidate will earn to the 2024 Republican National Convention here.
There’s a few delegate trackers (270 to win, Reuters, Wikipedia), I’ll pick the least bad one once we start getting results.
Were this held between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in 2016, Cruz would have won 551-173.
|
2024-01-09T20:43:29
|
2024-01-16T19:22:04
|
2024-01-16T19:22:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ZgMpwPxerg2OlZVY1Mf
|
Will 538 polling predict the correct winner of the presidential election?
|
this market resolves yes if 538 indicates aggregated polling in favor of the correct winner of the election.
Ie. If 538 says Trump has 50.1% chance of winning and Trump wins (and vice versa for Biden), this market resolves yes
|
2024-01-09T19:33:57
|
2024-11-12T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T22:52:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lnYKO6zE5TSPN0bO1zw0
|
Will any player pass for more than 350 yards in the 2024 wild card round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T16:25:50
|
2024-01-16T14:56:23
|
2024-01-16T14:56:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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