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mani-pUtQlT32hpmyzXPn62Fk
|
Will Manchester United beat Tottenham during regular time on Sun, Jan 14, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Manchester United vs Tottenham
📅 Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester United has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Tottenham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-01-09T16:02:02
|
2024-01-14T11:01:34
|
2024-01-14T11:01:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JiaKogi104J5DOndlMrC
|
Will Everton beat Aston Villa during regular time on Sun, Jan 14, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Everton vs Aston Villa
📅 Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Everton has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Aston Villa has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-01-09T16:01:54
|
2024-01-14T09:00:00
|
2024-01-14T09:01:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g07NTovWLpAkTRA16P9f
|
[Metaculus] Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
|
Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20878/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) orders provisional measures against Israel.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-09T15:18:10
|
2024-01-26T11:16:12
|
2024-01-26T11:16:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MOMPQNvPa7MrGfhXRuCT
|
[Metaculus] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
|
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20750/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting fewer than 90 seconds to midnight, before February 1, 2024. If the clock is set at or above 90 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-09T15:18:08
|
2024-01-23T15:12:44
|
2024-01-23T15:12:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-E0j9nL4v3z9ctLlHHe8D
|
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate before the Elden Ring DLC releases?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T14:23:51
|
2024-06-20T16:30:45
|
2024-06-20T16:30:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ImRKr7yq5ZnqJ9RcMj9q
|
Will Sundar Pichai be the CEO of Alphabet (GOOGL) at the end of 2024-Q2?
|
[markets]
|
2024-01-09T13:50:40
|
2024-06-29T05:00:00
|
2024-07-03T11:24:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sk5mBFCERnjfyxRswlXN
|
Nintendo Direct happening this January?
|
Nintendo Direct is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (Wikipedia)
Yup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this very month. It could air from this coming week, to the end of the month. (Zippo)
Resolves YES when a Nintendo Direct happens in January 2024.
Resolves NO in February.
|
2024-01-09T12:43:57
|
2024-01-31T23:29:24
|
2024-01-31T23:29:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0R4nvTUPwRrhnvO0tsBu
|
Will Neuralink's FDA study appear on clinicaltrials.gov in 2024?
|
On 25 May 2023, Neuralink tweeted
[tweet]
Clinical trials and studies conducted in the United States (with some exceptions) are required to be registered on clinicaltrials.gov, but as of market creation I have not found any record of the study and Neuralink PR has not clarified their comments despite numerous requests.
Related Bounty:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LukasDay/what-is-neuralinks-fda-trial-id-num?r=THVrYXNEYXk)This market will resolve YES if:
Record of a clinical study by Neuralink or an affiliated Responsible Party for testing neural implants on human subjects appears on clinicaltrials.gov before midnight on 31 Dec 2024.
This market will resolve NO if:
Record of a clinical study by Neuralink or an affiliated Responsible Party for testing neural implants on human subjects does not appear on clinicaltrials.gov before midnight on 31 Dec 2024
This market will resolve N/A if:
It turns out the study was actually registered in 2023.
In the event the FDA is dissolved, "FDA" will mean whatever bureau or agency is responsible for regulating medical devices (if any).
|
2024-01-09T12:12:28
|
2024-09-27T12:16:43
|
2024-09-27T12:16:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tvWX51LZsDmnyKzuFS7S
|
Will China suffer a financial crash in 2024?
|
This is second in my series based on this article. This article talks about a China Surprise. I am not convinced about an invasion of Taiwan by China is 2024, so I am going to focus on the 2nd unpredictable but plausible event that Matthew Burrows says can happen this year.
Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by Entirely Plausible 2024 events.
A China surprise
BY MATTHEW BURROWS
Mathew Burrows is the program lead of the Stimson Center’s Strategic Foresight Hub.
He was formerly the director of Foresight at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Strategy Initiative and the co-director of the New American Engagement Initiative.
War with China breaks out several months after Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Ching-te has been elected in the Taiwan presidential election on Jan. 13 with a bigger margin than expected. This encourages him to declare Taiwan’s independence from China against the advice of the Biden administration but with the backing of a number of congressional Republicans. China mounts a quarantine cutting off trade to the island. This only increases Taiwan’s determination to be independent, and just as the U.S. presidential campaign heats up in October, China starts a military operation. The Biden administration feels it has no option but to mount a military defense of the island. Biden’s strong presidential leadership shifts the momentum away from Trump among independent voters. The reigning assumption is that such a war would be so ruinous economically for China that President Xi Jinping would avoid it. However, in this scenario, he fears that China will lose Taiwan forever and is counting on the Biden administration to be wary of intervening for fear of the possible negative electoral consequences.
An alternative scenario: Under the weight of enormous debt, slow growth and a depressed property market, China suffers a financial crash similar to the 2008 economic crisis in the United States. As happened then, China’s woes aren’t confined to itself or Asia but spread, triggering a global recession. In the U.S., inflation goes away, but with a growing lack of confidence, unemployment starts to creep up just as the electoral campaign gets underway. Biden isn’t responsible, but like other U.S. presidents facing reelection, a poor economy further drags down his popularity.
Message from OP: There may be a subjective element to this, but it has to compare in magnitude to what happened to the US is 2008 with financial panic, government takeovers of private banks/assets/insurance companies; (although they claim it was not done); forced mergers; shotguns wedding of companies.
|
2024-01-09T12:11:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:19:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DdSwShjXEfuwuY4DeNMk
|
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T11:32:35
|
2024-09-27T12:23:59
|
2024-09-27T12:23:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JV5ggUqMVGbEnNCnqbSo
|
Will the US Capitol be stormed in 2024?
|
Will a group of at least 100 people attempt to enter the US capitol in DC with intent to occupy the building unlawfully in 2024?
|
2024-01-09T10:23:13
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T16:47:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LZzqingqFuK1PD96ulYz
|
Will Trump appear on the general election ballot in Colorado in the 2024 presidential election?
|
Resolves YES if Trump is on the Colorado general election ballot for US President in the 2024 election, otherwise NO.
So, this is based on if he's in the race (wins Republican nomination or runs as an independent or whatever) and if he's allowed on the Colorado ballot.
Context: Trump is ineligible for office under 14th Amendment’s ‘insurrectionist ban,’ Colorado Supreme Court rules - this decision is being appealed to the US Supreme Court.
Examples to clarify:
If he's deemed ineligible but he is on the ballot, that's still a YES. This might theoretically happen if he's ruled ineligible but such ruling happens after the ballots have been finalized.
If he's on the ballot, but drops out after the ballots have been finalized, that's also still a YES.
If he is not on the ballot, but is eligible for write-in votes, that's still a NO.
|
2024-01-09T09:18:17
|
2024-11-06T07:01:25
|
2024-11-06T07:01:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CVSwUMSYYF0Me710eRyY
|
Will Saquon Barkley play for the NY Giants next season?
|
Will he still be on the team and starting when the 2024/25 season begins?
|
2024-01-09T07:46:42
|
2024-03-14T07:25:32
|
2024-03-14T07:25:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vMDbcbCiZzTDsDS3cMte
|
IOWA CAUCUS: Will this be the result:
1. Trump 2. DeSantis 3. Haley 4. Ramaswamy 5. Christie
|
Yes means that this is the exact finishing order.
No means at least one candidate finishes in a different position. (examples: Haley finishes second, or Christie finishes sixth)
|
2024-01-09T06:56:38
|
2024-01-15T19:33:21
|
2024-01-15T19:33:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1y3VWsCWNFKn6lZJQlKr
|
Will Destiny release the first episode of his podcast before the end of February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T06:08:25
|
2024-02-29T22:22:53
|
2024-02-29T22:22:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-I5lrrTNdkiOsC51mm4Oh
|
Will Ron DeSantis (YES) get more total delegates than Nikki Haley (NO) in the 2024 Republican Primary?
|
We’re talking about the total number of delegates that each candidate will earn to the 2024 Republican National Convention here.
There’s a few delegate trackers (270 to win, Reuters, Wikipedia), I’ll pick the least bad one once we start getting results.
Were this held between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in 2016, Cruz would have won 551-173.
Current totals:
DeSantis: 9
Haley: 8
Also vote on:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mattyb/will-ron-desantis-still-be-an-activ)
|
2024-01-09T05:47:24
|
2024-01-23T18:26:28
|
2024-01-23T18:26:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2AJS1TI53tUY77tbeOU
|
Will 2024 set a new record for anti-trans bills introduced?
|
Going off of the Trans Legislation Tracker, will 2024 break the current record of 589 (2023) anti-trans bills introduced?
|
2024-01-09T04:47:05
|
2024-08-19T05:35:46
|
2024-08-19T05:35:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ulM3uLa2v8CmXLnTxWpA
|
Will Trump talk about MLK Jr. on MLK Day 2024?
|
Resolves YES if he mentions MLK Jr. in a speech or social media post on MLK Day 2024.
If he Truths a picture of an MLK quote (even if misattributed) this Resolves YES. Any mention of the man by name will cause this to Resolve YES.
|
2024-01-09T04:38:50
|
2024-01-15T16:13:25
|
2024-01-15T16:17:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1JsJaKcbtxgZtFrs3wBQ
|
Will Lloyd Austin still be Secretary of defence by Monday?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-09T04:23:34
|
2024-01-16T06:18:38
|
2024-01-16T06:18:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wZEwxFZ2S1nOEkxHIy61
|
Nintendo's successor to the Switch is named the "Super Nintendo Switch"
|
People talk about "Switch 2" but Nintendo might choose a different versioning scheme. After the NES came SNES.
Resolves YES if Nintendo officially announces a "Super Nintendo Switch" console next. Variants and extensions (e.g. a "Pro" version) still qualify.
Resolves NO if Nintendo's next console is called differently (e.g. Switch 2).
Close date might be extended.
|
2024-01-09T04:02:24
|
2025-01-16T10:31:25
|
2025-01-16T10:31:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9v9aFrPqASsdbyW1orqd
|
Bitcoin $80K in 2024?
|
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $80,000 USD at any point in 2024, according to the data on blockchain.info. If it does not reach $80,000 during 2024, it will resolve to "No."
|
2024-01-09T03:53:53
|
2024-11-10T09:57:51
|
2024-11-10T09:57:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aYgUgFC0LNhbeuCvllQN
|
Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 successfully perform an internal propellant transfer?
|
In December 2023, NASA made statements that SpaceX would demonstrate an internal propellant transfer (transferring propellant between two internal tanks) in their next Starship–SuperHeavy flight:
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html
This would be a demonstration of the kind of propellant transfer that would need to take place in orbit between vehicles as part of Starship's role in the upcoming Artemis missions to the moon.
Will Starship–SuperHeavy successfully perform such a demonstration during the third Integrated Flight Test?
Resolves YES on statements from SpaceX saying that this propellant transfer was attempted and was successful.
Resolves NO if a propellant transfer demonstration is described by SpaceX as unsuccessful, or if IFT-3 comes to an end (successfully or otherwise, including vehicle destruction on the pad) without a propellant transfer taking place.
Note specifically that if SpaceX launches the flight with no plans to do such a demonstration, this market still resolves NO, not N/A.
If the third flight isn't called "IFT-3", that's fine, this question is about the third Starship–SuperHeavy orbital or near-orbital flight, and will not resolve until a third flight has completed or the vehicle for a third flight attempt has been destroyed in an attempt (including blowing up on the pad as part of a launch attempt).
|
2024-01-09T00:12:01
|
2024-04-26T14:10:46
|
2024-04-26T14:10:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vevnpw3WQy8PQNYSx3e9
|
Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 have a planned trajectory that is fully orbital?
|
Resolves on statements from SpaceX establishing whether the planned trajectory of the third Integrated Flight Test of the Starshsip–SuperHeavy vehicle is unambiguously orbital - that is, a trajectory in which the vehicle would, without further engine burns, complete at least one full orbit around the Earth.
Since plans can change, this market will not resolve until SpaceX officially announces a NET launch date on their website at https://www.spacex.com/launches/.
If official and current information from SpaceX at or after that time establishes the planned flight trajectory, then this market will resolve accordingly, otherwise it will stay open until SpaceX makes the planned trajectory known.
If we don't know as of a month after launch or destruction of the vehicle, this market resolves N/A.
|
2024-01-08T23:35:55
|
2024-03-14T06:02:15
|
2024-03-14T06:02:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AuVeidkCU9lyHuAEhC5k
|
Will there be two SpaceX Starship–SuperHeavy launches within a single 30 day period in 2024?
|
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
Only launches planned to be orbital or near-orbital (intended to come within ~5% of orbital velocity) count.
"Within a single 30 day period" means that the time in between launches is not greater than 30 ordinary 24-hour days, i.e. 2,592,000 seconds.
Both launches must occur in 2024, local time at their respective launch sites.
|
2024-01-08T23:20:42
|
2025-01-02T04:59:00
|
2025-01-02T12:32:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8vxmyHvCZCwBrdcnCAYR
|
Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Groundhog Day 2024? (Feb 2)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2024-01-08T22:07:19
|
2024-02-02T20:59:00
|
2024-02-03T10:47:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j6XYkOzTmAop8LDRmKV7
|
Will the removal of Trump on the Colorado ballot be overturned
|
Trump was removed from the Colorado ballot meaning no one in Colorado can vote for him
|
2024-01-08T20:49:55
|
2024-03-04T17:01:18
|
2024-03-04T17:01:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7RJk8EdUxRDeSi1fR07A
|
Bitcoin $100K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T19:46:00
|
2024-12-04T19:51:38
|
2024-12-04T19:51:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x0TsFJAIqjBErTSU3k6c
|
By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?
|
Introduction
Connections is a unique, playful semantic game that changes each day. It occupies a fairly different space than most of the other games being effectively challenged by Large Language Models on Manifold and elsewhere, being at times both humorous and varyingly abstract. But, it does rely entirely on a simple structure of English text, and only features sixteen terms at a time with up to 3 failed guesses forgiven per day. If you're unfamiliar, play it for a few days!
I think Connections would make a good mini-benchmark of how much progress LLMs make in 2024. So, if a prompt and LLM combo is discovered and posted in this market, and folks are able to reproduce its success, I will resolve this Yes and it'll be a tiny blip on our AI timelines. I will need some obvious leeway for edge cases and clarifications as things progress, to prevent a dumb oversight from ruining the market. I will not be submitting to this market, but will bet since the resolution should be independently verifiable.
Standards
-The prompt must obey the fixed/general prompt rules from Mira's Sudoku market, excepting those parts that refer specifically to Sudoku and GPT-4.
-The information from a day's Connections puzzle may be fed all at once in any format to the LLM, and the pass/fail of each guess generated may be fed as a yes/no/one away as long as no other information is provided.
-The prompt must succeed on at least 16 out of 20 randomly selected Connections puzzles from the archive available here, or the best available archive at the time it is submitted.
-Successful replication must then occur across three more samples of 20 puzzles in a row, all of which start with a fresh instance and at least one of which is entered by a different human. This is both to verify the success, and to prevent a brute force fluke from fully automated models.
-Since unlike the Sudoku market this is not limited to GPT-4, any prompt of any format for any LLM that is released before the end of 2024 is legal, so long as it doesn't try to sneak in the solution or otherwise undermine the spirit of the market.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST): - The LLM only needs to correctly group the 16 words into their respective groups of 4. It does not need to identify or name the category labels for each group. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-01-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Independent verification: Success must be confirmed by multiple traders using separate instances of the LLM.
Consistent prompt usage: The same prompt must be utilized across different users to achieve successful puzzle solving.
Resolution timeline extension: Resolution may be delayed until the end of January to accommodate verification processes.
|
2024-01-08T19:33:52
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-17T05:42:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-598bnnJkj3y5DkYStlf6
|
Will an Indian win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
|
Will resolve YES if a player under the flag of the India wins the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament. R Praggnanandhaa, Vidit Gujrathi, and Gukesh D are currently expected to play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
Will resolve NO otherwise.
This is expected to resolve by the end of the tournament which is scheduled to end on April 25, 2024
|
2024-01-08T18:11:08
|
2024-04-21T18:08:13
|
2024-04-21T18:08:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PmUKKzSoq2PbA1exzYh4
|
☠️ Will the @TheOmniLiberal on 𝕏 be temp banned, suspended, or perm banned in 2024?
|
Will the @TheOmniLiberal be temp banned, suspended, or perm banned in 2024?
Resolution:
Resolves if either of the 3 happen
Proof MUST be posted before a resolution is made
This resolves NO at market close, Eastern Time if it does not happen.
NOTES:
None at this time.
Clarifications:
This is in regards to Destinys 𝕏(Formerly Twitter) Account.
If The Company Name Changes, That Does NOT Change The Spirit Of The Question.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2024-01-08T18:11:04
|
2024-12-31T16:00:00
|
2024-12-31T18:10:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qt4pros8G81RvgbZ84Ml
|
Will Lloyd Austin still be the Secretary of Defense on Election Day 2024?
|
Resolves NO if he leaves office for any reason, not just resignation. Resolves YES if he is still in office.
|
2024-01-08T17:34:55
|
2024-11-05T15:26:14
|
2024-11-05T15:26:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bqXGXgxR49zloK2XPOkQ
|
Will Disney resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES if credible media reports that Disney or any of its subsidiaries have resumed advertising on X. This will also resolve YES if multiple credible users publicly report that they see ads for Disney or any of its subsidiaries on X.
This market will resolve NO if on July 1st, the conditions for YES are not met.
|
2024-01-08T17:34:03
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-02T09:14:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p5QHy0YdrIUP9p7jxKp7
|
Will Joe Biden drop out of the US Election 2024 due to health concerns?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T17:10:51
|
2024-07-28T12:50:08
|
2024-07-28T12:50:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a6WNjgbrmZNkZjhrRBTh
|
Will Chelsea beat Fulham during regular time on Sat, Jan 13, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Chelsea vs Fulham
📅 Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Fulham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2024-01-08T16:01:39
|
2024-01-13T07:30:00
|
2024-01-13T08:01:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0tljbf4vkYoWaZlEcW3J
|
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2025, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% of the available angles), although it does not necessarily need to include other orbits (e.g. polar). If it occupies a ring around the sun, then both a swarm or a single monolithic structure qualify in the context of this question.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-498a9441b3bf (this question)
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-dd5dc0576ff4
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-0b0b9fe48958
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-7ffebd1e0ff5
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-082e239054e0
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-897d2cf9e325
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-51d476bf5275
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-d3e1ad8967f8
Space exploration questions:
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-5be75802cd57
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-108243356386
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-5027258fe404
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-f447d8800dd3
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb
Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Dyson_Sphere_Render.png
Image source: Image courtesy of Kevin M. Gill on Flickr, licensed under CC BY 2.0. Available at: https://flickr.com/photos/53460575@N03/29401385502
|
2024-01-08T14:51:19
|
2024-12-30T13:57:04
|
2024-12-30T13:57:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A6UWxydE7A1q9sbDtkoo
|
Will Bitcoin Reach $50k by March 1st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T14:20:46
|
2024-02-12T20:44:37
|
2024-02-12T20:44:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ETZYI6GnV4s90LEzeu8v
|
Will Elon Musk die of a drug related condition or event in 2024?
|
Those around Elon Musk are worried about his drug use. In 2024 will Musk die and will his death be attributed to a drug related condition or event (overdose, reaction, etc.)
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-07/elon-musk-s-drug-use-concerns-tesla-spacex-leaders-wsj-says
|
2024-01-08T14:06:24
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T08:47:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vVz4ec93EH9Aubwhs8gM
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 10M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 10 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-9d632ac5c2f1
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-dffa37ad4ea8
Different platforms:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-instagram-vide
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-x-video-reach
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-facebook-video
Strict version:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-08T13:59:37
|
2025-02-22T09:22:51
|
2025-02-22T09:22:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LwK9wLmUDaKwaCg7MwiE
|
Will Elon Musk be shown to have done drugs or alcohol in 2024?
|
A recent Wall Street Journal report stated that colleagues in leadership positions at Tesla and SpaceX were worried about Elon Musk’s alleged drug use. Elon himself states he has “not even trace quantities” of drugs or alcohol in his body after 3 years of random drug tests.
[image]
|
2024-01-08T11:55:18
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-10T07:25:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Dqjidd4ZRqZiGkqMkNRc
|
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T11:48:49
|
2024-10-01T20:59:00
|
2025-02-01T22:54:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rNPXlcqi51V8e5O8SriO
|
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T11:39:28
|
2024-07-21T15:49:38
|
2024-07-21T15:49:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QXNKHdgyn0zUVxBJBobN
|
Will Astrobotic's Peregrine mission successfully enter orbit around, land on, or impact the Moon?
|
Astrobotic's Peregrine mission appears to have experienced a propulsion anomaly. Without further maneuvers, it will not enter orbit around the Moon or land on it.
Will it manuever enough to enter orbit around the moon or otherwise be gravitationally captured, including by successful landing or impact (unsuccessful landing)?
[tweet]
|
2024-01-08T10:08:10
|
2024-01-15T22:59:00
|
2024-01-18T19:16:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WjRe3ZUcMe5tR2dPX6KB
|
Will ChatGPT-4 be available for free before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T10:06:05
|
2024-12-31T13:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:20:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9vO4AFb3CebpHTv0q0C0
|
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2024 AFC Championship Game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T09:56:12
|
2024-01-21T18:47:27
|
2024-01-21T18:47:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hbvHgSqA3Bp0wzQPro6O
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2024 AFC Championship Game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T09:55:56
|
2024-01-28T15:14:21
|
2024-01-28T15:14:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yKPn15z6zelPOiVSDI88
|
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T09:54:36
|
2024-01-28T18:54:11
|
2024-01-28T18:54:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rfdAEw1dT8sOH6OMwn9z
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
|
Niners
|
2024-01-08T09:54:18
|
2024-01-28T18:59:49
|
2024-01-28T18:59:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BHCxPayZ7bezrZfLXiHc
|
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
|
(This also resolves NO if they do not make it to the championship game)
|
2024-01-08T09:53:40
|
2024-01-20T20:19:53
|
2024-01-20T20:19:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ILSGNAmQZhk15OZ8jZ0r
|
Will the S&P500 increase MoM in Jan, 2024.
|
Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.
|
2024-01-08T09:39:40
|
2024-01-31T12:55:00
|
2024-01-31T13:48:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p9klp1LUsgzBbaK0rDSg
|
Will Apple Vision Pro be a flop?
|
Apple Vision Pro Vibe check
Resolution:
Yes, it is a Flop:
If the Apple VIsion Pro is viewed as a gimmick device, seen with little to no cultural impact or general public disinterest.
No, it is not a flop:
If the cultural consensus around the Apple Vision Pro is positive (think of the Las Vegas Sphere)
|
2024-01-08T08:55:50
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-05T10:59:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xGP6FxLf6EXwtnLV538j
|
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2024 NFL Super Bowl?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T08:53:08
|
2024-01-28T19:00:24
|
2024-01-28T19:00:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zK3aiIPjKdJgirqxSf0Q
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2024 NFL Super Bowl?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T08:52:14
|
2024-02-11T19:48:12
|
2024-02-11T19:48:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Wk6Q5pLH8NOAnyU9dX32
|
Will Astrobiotic’s Peregrine lander touch the surface of the moon by March 1st, 2024, regardless of whether it lands?
|
Landing is planned for 2/23/2024. Will Peregrine attempt a landing, regardless of success? This question will resolve yes if the Peregrine lander crashes or lands.
As of 1/8/2024, Peregrine is experiencing an issue where it cannot point its solar panels at the sun.
|
2024-01-08T08:32:40
|
2024-01-18T18:02:57
|
2024-01-18T18:02:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h73cxwY4Y8euZ0hVyZcl
|
Will Baldur's Gate III achieve 300k peak concurrent steam players on January 31st 2024?
|
Baldur's Gate III reached it's lowest average playercount since release in November 2023, with 202k peak simultaneous players according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/ . In December that rose to 258k, and in the last week it rose again to 297k. Will it close the month having seen a peak of >300,000 players on the day of January 31st?
|
2024-01-08T07:35:20
|
2024-01-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-31T23:10:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ilf2quyijP9ArBX7pTY
|
(Wild Card Parlay) Will both the Dolphins and Packers cover a +10.5 spread?
|
Resolves YES if Dolphins and Packers BOTH cover a +10.5 spread in the wild card round.
Dolphins at Chiefs
Packers at Cowboys
Otherwise resolves NO.
|
2024-01-08T07:23:59
|
2024-01-14T08:14:22
|
2024-01-14T08:14:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IGD4A5tGd4YF1vviKxfy
|
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $490.97 per share on 12 of January, 2024?
|
Weekly prediction for NVDA.
Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $490.97 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $490.97 USD during the week will not count towards this market.
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
|
2024-01-08T06:28:31
|
2024-01-12T13:15:11
|
2024-01-12T13:15:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Fx2gcZmoiy9qN70t7aB
|
Will the Steelers continue a winning streak and take down the Bills?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T05:25:44
|
2024-01-15T20:59:00
|
2024-01-16T07:09:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7MVHiJ842nfYMKmxUBcV
|
NFL Wild Card: Will Dallas Cowboys win against Green Bay Packers by more than 7.5 points
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T04:40:14
|
2024-01-14T16:44:00
|
2024-01-14T16:44:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pzc1odzdi6dw5maRr9gr
|
Will the Las Vegas Sphere go bankrupt in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T04:33:06
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:26:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rddx2KCm44jkJR3ZQ6Nv
|
Will Business Insider admit errors in the story accusing Bill Ackman’s wife of plagiarism or fire the reporter by 31 Mar
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T04:31:37
|
2024-03-30T16:59:00
|
2024-03-30T20:43:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uJDhvhQSYw4Nd48OxVwK
|
Will Destiny talk to Glenn Greenwald during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Only counts if it occurs after this market's creation.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-08T03:59:59
|
2024-01-30T16:03:53
|
2024-01-30T16:03:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IAuNXejDGCGp2uffZ50v
|
Will self-driving cars account for more than 50% of all vehicles on the road in any country by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-08T02:55:25
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-16T06:17:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ftztjSiWcenr0edsJS6y
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 20 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-4bbb7ca2194b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-3d03ea841919
Different platforms:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-tiktok-video-r-a02d78144615
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-instagram-vide-367e297f7587
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-xtwitter-video
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-facebook-video-97fcb444b2bc
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-08T02:48:21
|
2025-02-25T15:03:46
|
2025-02-25T15:03:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2hK11KkBif5HwRwFt0CP
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 200M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 200 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-fafd2966d3a7
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-88907d87a81c
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-08T02:43:49
|
2025-02-25T15:03:59
|
2025-02-25T15:03:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qYutbri4UIuPFpSXAiZy
|
Will OpenAI announce GPT-4.5 before March 2024?
|
Resolves YES on an official, public announcement from OpenAI that they have a model called GPT-4.5 that will be available at some point. Doesn't have to be released or available to anyone, just announced in some official way.
Announcement must be public before March, Pacific Time.
Must actually be a model (or family of models) called "GPT-4.5". A model or family of models named differently will not count.
|
2024-01-07T22:36:36
|
2024-03-01T00:25:14
|
2024-03-01T00:25:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ABPYeCxbz3YxHLATGDni
|
Will Lauren Boebert still be a Member of Congress in 2025?
|
This will resolve YES if Lauren Boebert is a member of the United States Congress in any capacity in 2025.
|
2024-01-07T22:34:23
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:54:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nw3kDQGO6xK235Vj7jgg
|
Will there be a tie score in the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T21:16:58
|
2025-01-05T20:35:23
|
2025-01-05T20:35:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pl76sez0clYZiVwPDgWs
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 Wild Card
|
[image]
|
2024-01-07T20:31:17
|
2024-01-13T20:18:14
|
2024-01-13T20:18:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Esol0j1ubxf77iMxD33V
|
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Pittsburgh Steelers? 🏈 Wild Card
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T20:29:13
|
2024-01-15T16:44:03
|
2024-01-15T16:44:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XHHcceDAnzMLeCt9iFkG
|
Will the Steelers beat the Bills in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T20:22:43
|
2024-01-15T16:44:26
|
2024-01-15T16:44:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4g6m54bZwC1U7l1Xct82
|
Will the Dolphins beat the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T20:21:43
|
2024-01-13T21:25:36
|
2024-01-13T21:25:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ja0WUaAXRuco4wUWSztN
|
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #2 Buffalo Bills (home) beat the #7 Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T19:35:16
|
2024-01-15T16:58:22
|
2024-01-15T16:58:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k35GqKiDWTX9ljqK1QGt
|
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #3 Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the #6 Miami Dolphins in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T19:34:22
|
2024-01-13T20:25:02
|
2024-01-13T20:25:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sKIRi0ahwB6MetSsCJRi
|
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) beat the #5 Philadelphia Eagles in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T19:32:20
|
2024-01-15T20:21:17
|
2024-01-15T20:21:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FXxilbyzHPoo3TwVg1X8
|
NFL Playoff Wild Card Round: will the #2 Dallas Cowboys (home) beat the #7 Green Bay Packers in the 2024 Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T19:31:10
|
2024-01-14T16:58:24
|
2024-01-14T16:58:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lLNfvomW4FJStz8p7B6h
|
Will Apple use the word "AI" in the 2024's developer conference (WWDC) keynote?
|
In Apple's 2023 Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) neither "AI" or "artificial intelligence" was ever uttered. (See the keynote & transcript: https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/wwdc2023/101/)
It's a good bet that Apple purposefully didn't use these terms to at least distinguish themselves from the "AI hype". (For context, WWDC 2023 keynote was on the 5th of June 2023.)
The question here is if they will continue that trend in not using "AI" or "artificial intelligence" for 2024's developer conference, even as they roll in their own "AI" into their own products. (Note in WWDC 2023 they referred to "transformers" and "machine learning" but not "AI" or "artificial intelligence" directly).
Resolves "YES"
Resolves "YES" if during the 2024 WWDC keynote a presenter uses the word "AI" or the words "artificial intelligence" at least once. For easy objective resolution, if the transcript from Apple contains either of these words (whether referring to their own product(s)/service(s) or another company's) then the market will resolve "YES". Note that other terms related to "AI" (such as "LLM", "machine learning", etc.) will NOT resolve this market.
Resolving "NO"
Resolves "NO" if the word "AI" or "artificial intelligence" is not uttered by a presenter (according to Apple's transcript) during the 2024 WWDC keynote.
Note on Date of 2024 WWDC
I'll make sure to update this market's close to the day before the 2024 WWDC keynote is to take place once the date is announced. Usually done near the beginning of June.
|
2024-01-07T19:09:10
|
2024-06-10T11:37:49
|
2024-06-10T11:37:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yg9STxSOodwSPmTyfMmq
|
Will there be a Peacock exclusive playoff game in the 2024/25 NFL season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T19:04:29
|
2024-10-01T12:13:01
|
2024-10-01T12:13:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3fI1ugaDxWC4hdPXPypy
|
Will the Detroit Lions rip-apart the LA Rams? 🏈 Wild Card
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-07T18:31:38
|
2024-01-14T20:02:26
|
2024-01-14T20:02:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-62I8uQGQmnpchUcDyisd
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 Wild Card
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-07T18:28:52
|
2024-01-15T20:19:02
|
2024-01-15T20:19:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MxSBdRBv2p8F9zN7ydFI
|
Will the Cleveland Browns knockout the Houston Texans? 🏈 Wild Card
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-07T18:26:43
|
2024-01-13T16:25:53
|
2024-01-13T16:25:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AFF5o9hrXtfPa0GpdnR9
|
Will there be an Irish Unification of 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland
Star Trek makes reference to an "Irish Unification of 2024".
|
2024-01-07T18:21:19
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2024-12-31T10:20:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eGqcWxAKMBElpwbrfOJT
|
Will the Steelers outperform the Eagles in the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
|
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles are two football teams with polar opposite trajectories. The Steelers became hot at the last minute, making the playoffs as the last AFC seed. The Eagles started as the league's best team, before losing several games and being blown out by the 5-11 Giants.
Which Pennsylvania team will best represent the state in the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
This market resolves to YES if, in this order of precedence:
The Steelers play the Eagles in Super Bowl 58, and win
The Steelers play more playoff games than the Eagles
The Steelers have a smaller margin of defeat in the round where both they and the Eagles lose
The Steelers gain equal to or greater offensive yards in the round where the margin of defeat is equal and both teams lose
Otherwise, the market resolves to NO.
RESOLUTION: In the Wild Card round, the Steelers lost by 14 points, while the Eagles lost by 23. Therefore, the resolution is YES.
|
2024-01-07T17:48:27
|
2024-01-16T04:06:17
|
2024-01-16T04:06:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gZrfQUin7DyAd2emHZBc
|
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in 2024?
|
Will Bitcoin go that high this year?
|
2024-01-07T17:10:03
|
2024-03-08T08:31:42
|
2024-03-08T08:31:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N6ma1NweFHOdMslu0hEK
|
Will the Rams defeat the Lions in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T16:36:02
|
2024-01-14T20:02:25
|
2024-01-14T20:02:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U3XvIhfArlR8jsungHDz
|
Will the Eagles defeat the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T16:35:06
|
2024-01-15T20:19:34
|
2024-01-15T20:19:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BTyxXJQMZ8PYeGCrLYDR
|
Will the Packers defeat the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T16:34:04
|
2024-01-14T16:51:08
|
2024-01-14T16:51:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jqqmrsVLgGiKFNaNQKRn
|
Will the Browns defeat the Texans in the Wild Card Round?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T16:32:40
|
2024-01-13T16:27:45
|
2024-01-13T16:27:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZzpXY6aWqGdQQA86azti
|
Will Destiny talk to Ana Kasparian by the end of February 2024?
|
Any instance of Destiny directing his words at Ana in the same voice call or in person will resolve YES. Twitter live chats or call-ins from either Ana or Destiny will also count.
|
2024-01-07T16:17:34
|
2024-03-01T00:00:00
|
2024-03-01T00:07:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qbOGxGS6pMDK0YzSPLjw
|
Will China send pandas to the US by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T15:42:29
|
2024-08-04T17:25:40
|
2024-08-04T17:25:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J4atNWqL1UuQC7h5nSTj
|
Will a category 4 or higher hurricane make landfall in the US in October 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T14:56:29
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2024-11-01T03:31:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-apkLvgICS5N9grScXEpH
|
Will 2024 TIME Person of the Year be the person, who have already won it?
|
This market will resolve YES, if TIME Person of the Year is named the person that has been already been named this title.
Groups, ideas, and other "persons" do not count for YES.
|
2024-01-07T14:35:15
|
2024-12-12T12:42:48
|
2024-12-12T12:42:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yb5zQGiq58tERVGq4BBk
|
🏈 2023 NFL: Will the Super Bowl end in Scorigami?
|
Scorigami explained:
https://nflscorigami.com/
Scorigami frequency:
https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
|
2024-01-07T14:33:22
|
2024-02-11T20:59:00
|
2024-02-12T16:42:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6hx0tIpTIN3zGp2BEeA5
|
Will Lauren Boebert be charged with a crime during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-07T14:12:54
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T00:50:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PxDqpg1Aw96lakp3nLAR
|
Will Peloton Interactive Inc go bankrupt by the end of 2024?
|
This will resolve as YES if Peloton Interactive Inc files for bankruptcy. It will resolve as NO otherwise.
|
2024-01-07T13:13:15
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-09T11:52:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qfPAA00hid9tLSdg7tN2
|
Will SP get a seat in the European parliament?
|
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_(Netherlands)
|
2024-01-07T12:40:04
|
2024-06-14T09:20:43
|
2024-06-14T09:20:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Iz1xn1GR0DF0StwrVm6p
|
2024: Will Bitcoin dominance reach 60%?
|
Resolves on Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#bitcoin-dominance
[image]
|
2024-01-07T11:10:56
|
2024-11-02T13:21:34
|
2024-11-02T13:21:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6msKjJemNsRlSvbxvPsI
|
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 4%?
|
popular vote
any other candidate than Rep/Dems
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty-f4fe10cda993)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty)
|
2024-01-07T10:29:03
|
2024-11-30T14:59:00
|
2024-12-03T13:50:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-haCNm2O2Mkx4cuBEGM9G
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 50 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-62995958cca7
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-8ece29d7032e
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-07T06:58:02
|
2025-02-25T15:03:51
|
2025-02-25T15:03:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KdYpsH1PlUAc7f2wb6NR
|
Will the Las Vegas Aces be crowned the WNBA Champions in 2024?
|
The Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) is an American professional basketball league. It is composed of 12 teams, all based in the United States of America.
The past two years have seen the Las Vegas Aces crowned the WNBA Champions. Pre-season odds favour the Las Vega Aces.
|
2024-01-07T06:15:33
|
2024-10-12T15:59:00
|
2024-10-13T05:50:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K0znMsPYkQsrq0iQJZjX
|
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 2%?
|
popular vote
any other candidate than Rep/Dems
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty)
|
2024-01-07T05:48:59
|
2024-11-30T14:59:00
|
2024-12-03T13:50:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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