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mani-pUtQlT32hpmyzXPn62Fk
Will Manchester United beat Tottenham during regular time on Sun, Jan 14, 2024? - Premier League
⚽ Manchester United vs Tottenham 📅 Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Manchester United has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regu...
2024-01-09T16:02:02
2024-01-14T11:01:34
2024-01-14T11:01:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-JiaKogi104J5DOndlMrC
Will Everton beat Aston Villa during regular time on Sun, Jan 14, 2024? - Premier League
⚽ Everton vs Aston Villa 📅 Date: Sunday, January 14, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Everton has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stop...
2024-01-09T16:01:54
2024-01-14T09:00:00
2024-01-14T09:01:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g07NTovWLpAkTRA16P9f
[Metaculus] Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?
Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20878/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, before March 1, 2024, the Internation...
2024-01-09T15:18:10
2024-01-26T11:16:12
2024-01-26T11:16:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MOMPQNvPa7MrGfhXRuCT
[Metaculus] Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?
Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20750/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting fewe...
2024-01-09T15:18:08
2024-01-23T15:12:44
2024-01-23T15:12:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-E0j9nL4v3z9ctLlHHe8D
Will Donald Trump announce his running mate before the Elden Ring DLC releases?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-09T14:23:51
2024-06-20T16:30:45
2024-06-20T16:30:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ImRKr7yq5ZnqJ9RcMj9q
Will Sundar Pichai be the CEO of Alphabet (GOOGL) at the end of 2024-Q2?
[markets]
2024-01-09T13:50:40
2024-06-29T05:00:00
2024-07-03T11:24:52
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Sk5mBFCERnjfyxRswlXN
Nintendo Direct happening this January?
Nintendo Direct is a series of online presentation or live shows produced by Nintendo, where information regarding the company's upcoming content or franchises is presented, such as information about games and consoles. (Wikipedia) Yup, I'm hearing from the usual sources that Nintendo is planning a Direct to air this ...
2024-01-09T12:43:57
2024-01-31T23:29:24
2024-01-31T23:29:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0R4nvTUPwRrhnvO0tsBu
Will Neuralink's FDA study appear on clinicaltrials.gov in 2024?
On 25 May 2023, Neuralink tweeted [tweet] Clinical trials and studies conducted in the United States (with some exceptions) are required to be registered on clinicaltrials.gov, but as of market creation I have not found any record of the study and Neuralink PR has not clarified their comments despite numerous reque...
2024-01-09T12:12:28
2024-09-27T12:16:43
2024-09-27T12:16:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tvWX51LZsDmnyKzuFS7S
Will China suffer a financial crash in 2024?
This is second in my series based on this article. This article talks about a China Surprise. I am not convinced about an invasion of Taiwan by China is 2024, so I am going to focus on the 2nd unpredictable but plausible event that Matthew Burrows says can happen this year. Article in the Politico for Unpredictable by...
2024-01-09T12:11:11
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-02T09:19:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DdSwShjXEfuwuY4DeNMk
Will a Category 3 or greater hurricane make landfall in Florida during 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-09T11:32:35
2024-09-27T12:23:59
2024-09-27T12:23:59
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JV5ggUqMVGbEnNCnqbSo
Will the US Capitol be stormed in 2024?
Will a group of at least 100 people attempt to enter the US capitol in DC with intent to occupy the building unlawfully in 2024?
2024-01-09T10:23:13
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2024-12-31T16:47:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LZzqingqFuK1PD96ulYz
Will Trump appear on the general election ballot in Colorado in the 2024 presidential election?
Resolves YES if Trump is on the Colorado general election ballot for US President in the 2024 election, otherwise NO. So, this is based on if he's in the race (wins Republican nomination or runs as an independent or whatever) and if he's allowed on the Colorado ballot. Context: Trump is ineligible for office under 14...
2024-01-09T09:18:17
2024-11-06T07:01:25
2024-11-06T07:01:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-CVSwUMSYYF0Me710eRyY
Will Saquon Barkley play for the NY Giants next season?
Will he still be on the team and starting when the 2024/25 season begins?
2024-01-09T07:46:42
2024-03-14T07:25:32
2024-03-14T07:25:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vMDbcbCiZzTDsDS3cMte
IOWA CAUCUS: Will this be the result: 1. Trump 2. DeSantis 3. Haley 4. Ramaswamy 5. Christie
Yes means that this is the exact finishing order. No means at least one candidate finishes in a different position. (examples: Haley finishes second, or Christie finishes sixth)
2024-01-09T06:56:38
2024-01-15T19:33:21
2024-01-15T19:33:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1y3VWsCWNFKn6lZJQlKr
Will Destiny release the first episode of his podcast before the end of February 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-09T06:08:25
2024-02-29T22:22:53
2024-02-29T22:22:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-I5lrrTNdkiOsC51mm4Oh
Will Ron DeSantis (YES) get more total delegates than Nikki Haley (NO) in the 2024 Republican Primary?
We’re talking about the total number of delegates that each candidate will earn to the 2024 Republican National Convention here. There’s a few delegate trackers (270 to win, Reuters, Wikipedia), I’ll pick the least bad one once we start getting results. Were this held between Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio in 2016, Cruz wo...
2024-01-09T05:47:24
2024-01-23T18:26:28
2024-01-23T18:26:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-g2AJS1TI53tUY77tbeOU
Will 2024 set a new record for anti-trans bills introduced?
Going off of the Trans Legislation Tracker, will 2024 break the current record of 589 (2023) anti-trans bills introduced?
2024-01-09T04:47:05
2024-08-19T05:35:46
2024-08-19T05:35:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ulM3uLa2v8CmXLnTxWpA
Will Trump talk about MLK Jr. on MLK Day 2024?
Resolves YES if he mentions MLK Jr. in a speech or social media post on MLK Day 2024. If he Truths a picture of an MLK quote (even if misattributed) this Resolves YES. Any mention of the man by name will cause this to Resolve YES.
2024-01-09T04:38:50
2024-01-15T16:13:25
2024-01-15T16:17:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-1JsJaKcbtxgZtFrs3wBQ
Will Lloyd Austin still be Secretary of defence by Monday?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-09T04:23:34
2024-01-16T06:18:38
2024-01-16T06:18:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wZEwxFZ2S1nOEkxHIy61
Nintendo's successor to the Switch is named the "Super Nintendo Switch"
People talk about "Switch 2" but Nintendo might choose a different versioning scheme. After the NES came SNES. Resolves YES if Nintendo officially announces a "Super Nintendo Switch" console next. Variants and extensions (e.g. a "Pro" version) still qualify. Resolves NO if Nintendo's next console is called differentl...
2024-01-09T04:02:24
2025-01-16T10:31:25
2025-01-16T10:31:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9v9aFrPqASsdbyW1orqd
Bitcoin $80K in 2024?
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve to "Yes" if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) reaches or exceeds $80,000 USD at any point in 2024, according to the data on blockchain.info. If it does not reach $80,000 during 2024, it will resolve to "No."
2024-01-09T03:53:53
2024-11-10T09:57:51
2024-11-10T09:57:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-aYgUgFC0LNhbeuCvllQN
Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 successfully perform an internal propellant transfer?
In December 2023, NASA made statements that SpaceX would demonstrate an internal propellant transfer (transferring propellant between two internal tanks) in their next Starship–SuperHeavy flight: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/05/spacex-plans-nasa-refueling-demonstration-for-next-starship-launch.html This would be a de...
2024-01-09T00:12:01
2024-04-26T14:10:46
2024-04-26T14:10:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Vevnpw3WQy8PQNYSx3e9
Will Starship–SuperHeavy IFT-3 have a planned trajectory that is fully orbital?
Resolves on statements from SpaceX establishing whether the planned trajectory of the third Integrated Flight Test of the Starshsip–SuperHeavy vehicle is unambiguously orbital - that is, a trajectory in which the vehicle would, without further engine burns, complete at least one full orbit around the Earth. Since plan...
2024-01-08T23:35:55
2024-03-14T06:02:15
2024-03-14T06:02:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AuVeidkCU9lyHuAEhC5k
Will there be two SpaceX Starship–SuperHeavy launches within a single 30 day period in 2024?
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. Only launches planned to be orbital or near-orbital (intended to come within ~5% of orbital velocity) count. "Within a single 30 day period" means that the time in between launches is not greater than 30 ordinary...
2024-01-08T23:20:42
2025-01-02T04:59:00
2025-01-02T12:32:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8vxmyHvCZCwBrdcnCAYR
Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Groundhog Day 2024? (Feb 2)
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
2024-01-08T22:07:19
2024-02-02T20:59:00
2024-02-03T10:47:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-j6XYkOzTmAop8LDRmKV7
Will the removal of Trump on the Colorado ballot be overturned
Trump was removed from the Colorado ballot meaning no one in Colorado can vote for him
2024-01-08T20:49:55
2024-03-04T17:01:18
2024-03-04T17:01:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7RJk8EdUxRDeSi1fR07A
Bitcoin $100K in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T19:46:00
2024-12-04T19:51:38
2024-12-04T19:51:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-x0TsFJAIqjBErTSU3k6c
By the end of 2024, will there be an LLM prompt that can reliably solve the NYT Connections puzzle?
Introduction Connections is a unique, playful semantic game that changes each day. It occupies a fairly different space than most of the other games being effectively challenged by Large Language Models on Manifold and elsewhere, being at times both humorous and varyingly abstract. But, it does rely entirely on a simp...
2024-01-08T19:33:52
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-17T05:42:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-598bnnJkj3y5DkYStlf6
Will an Indian win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
Will resolve YES if a player under the flag of the India wins the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament. R Praggnanandhaa, Vidit Gujrathi, and Gukesh D are currently expected to play. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024 Will resolve NO otherwise. This is expected to resolve by the end of the tourname...
2024-01-08T18:11:08
2024-04-21T18:08:13
2024-04-21T18:08:13
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-PmUKKzSoq2PbA1exzYh4
☠️ Will the @TheOmniLiberal on 𝕏 be temp banned, suspended, or perm banned in 2024?
Will the @TheOmniLiberal be temp banned, suspended, or perm banned in 2024? Resolution: Resolves if either of the 3 happen Proof MUST be posted before a resolution is made This resolves NO at market close, Eastern Time if it does not happen. NOTES: None at this time. Clarifications: This is in regards to Des...
2024-01-08T18:11:04
2024-12-31T16:00:00
2024-12-31T18:10:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Qt4pros8G81RvgbZ84Ml
Will Lloyd Austin still be the Secretary of Defense on Election Day 2024?
Resolves NO if he leaves office for any reason, not just resignation. Resolves YES if he is still in office.
2024-01-08T17:34:55
2024-11-05T15:26:14
2024-11-05T15:26:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bqXGXgxR49zloK2XPOkQ
Will Disney resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?
This market will resolve YES if credible media reports that Disney or any of its subsidiaries have resumed advertising on X. This will also resolve YES if multiple credible users publicly report that they see ads for Disney or any of its subsidiaries on X. This market will resolve NO if on July 1st, the conditions for...
2024-01-08T17:34:03
2024-07-01T20:59:00
2024-07-02T09:14:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p5QHy0YdrIUP9p7jxKp7
Will Joe Biden drop out of the US Election 2024 due to health concerns?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T17:10:51
2024-07-28T12:50:08
2024-07-28T12:50:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-a6WNjgbrmZNkZjhrRBTh
Will Chelsea beat Fulham during regular time on Sat, Jan 13, 2024? - Premier League
⚽ Chelsea vs Fulham 📅 Date: Saturday, January 13, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Chelsea has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppag...
2024-01-08T16:01:39
2024-01-13T07:30:00
2024-01-13T08:01:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0tljbf4vkYoWaZlEcW3J
Will there be a Dyson Sphere around the Sun before 2025?
Resolves as YES if there is a Dyson Sphere around the Sun on January 1st 2025, capable of harnessing at least 1% of its power output. This artificial megastructure must at least be distributed in a ring around the Sun (i.e. it cannot be focused as a single or small (<50) finite number of large structures occupying 1% o...
2024-01-08T14:51:19
2024-12-30T13:57:04
2024-12-30T13:57:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-A6UWxydE7A1q9sbDtkoo
Will Bitcoin Reach $50k by March 1st 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T14:20:46
2024-02-12T20:44:37
2024-02-12T20:44:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ETZYI6GnV4s90LEzeu8v
Will Elon Musk die of a drug related condition or event in 2024?
Those around Elon Musk are worried about his drug use. In 2024 will Musk die and will his death be attributed to a drug related condition or event (overdose, reaction, etc.) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-07/elon-musk-s-drug-use-concerns-tesla-spacex-leaders-wsj-says
2024-01-08T14:06:24
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-03T08:47:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vVz4ec93EH9Aubwhs8gM
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 10M views before 2025?
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 10 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025 Different number of views: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 (this question) @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7...
2024-01-08T13:59:37
2025-02-22T09:22:51
2025-02-22T09:22:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LwK9wLmUDaKwaCg7MwiE
Will Elon Musk be shown to have done drugs or alcohol in 2024?
A recent Wall Street Journal report stated that colleagues in leadership positions at Tesla and SpaceX were worried about Elon Musk’s alleged drug use. Elon himself states he has “not even trace quantities” of drugs or alcohol in his body after 3 years of random drug tests. [image]
2024-01-08T11:55:18
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-02-10T07:25:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Dqjidd4ZRqZiGkqMkNRc
Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T11:48:49
2024-10-01T20:59:00
2025-02-01T22:54:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rNPXlcqi51V8e5O8SriO
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T11:39:28
2024-07-21T15:49:38
2024-07-21T15:49:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QXNKHdgyn0zUVxBJBobN
Will Astrobotic's Peregrine mission successfully enter orbit around, land on, or impact the Moon?
Astrobotic's Peregrine mission appears to have experienced a propulsion anomaly. Without further maneuvers, it will not enter orbit around the Moon or land on it. Will it manuever enough to enter orbit around the moon or otherwise be gravitationally captured, including by successful landing or impact (unsuccessful lan...
2024-01-08T10:08:10
2024-01-15T22:59:00
2024-01-18T19:16:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WjRe3ZUcMe5tR2dPX6KB
Will ChatGPT-4 be available for free before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T10:06:05
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2025-01-01T00:20:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9vO4AFb3CebpHTv0q0C0
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2024 AFC Championship Game?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T09:56:12
2024-01-21T18:47:27
2024-01-21T18:47:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hbvHgSqA3Bp0wzQPro6O
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2024 AFC Championship Game?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T09:55:56
2024-01-28T15:14:21
2024-01-28T15:14:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yKPn15z6zelPOiVSDI88
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T09:54:36
2024-01-28T18:54:11
2024-01-28T18:54:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rfdAEw1dT8sOH6OMwn9z
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
Niners
2024-01-08T09:54:18
2024-01-28T18:59:49
2024-01-28T18:59:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BHCxPayZ7bezrZfLXiHc
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2024 NFC Championship Game?
(This also resolves NO if they do not make it to the championship game)
2024-01-08T09:53:40
2024-01-20T20:19:53
2024-01-20T20:19:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ILSGNAmQZhk15OZ8jZ0r
Will the S&P500 increase MoM in Jan, 2024.
Will use the Adj Close on the last trading day of the month, compared to Adj Close on the last trading day of the previous month, from Yahoo Finance.
2024-01-08T09:39:40
2024-01-31T12:55:00
2024-01-31T13:48:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-p9klp1LUsgzBbaK0rDSg
Will Apple Vision Pro be a flop?
Apple Vision Pro Vibe check Resolution: Yes, it is a Flop: If the Apple VIsion Pro is viewed as a gimmick device, seen with little to no cultural impact or general public disinterest. No, it is not a flop: If the cultural consensus around the Apple Vision Pro is positive (think of the Las Vegas Sphere)
2024-01-08T08:55:50
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-05T10:59:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xGP6FxLf6EXwtnLV538j
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2024 NFL Super Bowl?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T08:53:08
2024-01-28T19:00:24
2024-01-28T19:00:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zK3aiIPjKdJgirqxSf0Q
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2024 NFL Super Bowl?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T08:52:14
2024-02-11T19:48:12
2024-02-11T19:48:12
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Wk6Q5pLH8NOAnyU9dX32
Will Astrobiotic’s Peregrine lander touch the surface of the moon by March 1st, 2024, regardless of whether it lands?
Landing is planned for 2/23/2024. Will Peregrine attempt a landing, regardless of success? This question will resolve yes if the Peregrine lander crashes or lands. As of 1/8/2024, Peregrine is experiencing an issue where it cannot point its solar panels at the sun.
2024-01-08T08:32:40
2024-01-18T18:02:57
2024-01-18T18:02:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h73cxwY4Y8euZ0hVyZcl
Will Baldur's Gate III achieve 300k peak concurrent steam players on January 31st 2024?
Baldur's Gate III reached it's lowest average playercount since release in November 2023, with 202k peak simultaneous players according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/ . In December that rose to 258k, and in the last week it rose again to 297k. Will it close the month having seen a peak of >300,000 players on...
2024-01-08T07:35:20
2024-01-31T15:59:00
2024-01-31T23:10:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1ilf2quyijP9ArBX7pTY
(Wild Card Parlay) Will both the Dolphins and Packers cover a +10.5 spread?
Resolves YES if Dolphins and Packers BOTH cover a +10.5 spread in the wild card round. Dolphins at Chiefs Packers at Cowboys Otherwise resolves NO.
2024-01-08T07:23:59
2024-01-14T08:14:22
2024-01-14T08:14:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IGD4A5tGd4YF1vviKxfy
Will NVIDIA’s (NASDAQ Ticker: $NVDA) stock price close above $490.97 per share on 12 of January, 2024?
Weekly prediction for NVDA. Will resolve YES if NVIDIA's stock closes above $490.97 USD on the closing price of 12 of January, 2024. Any moves above $490.97 USD during the week will not count towards this market. https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ
2024-01-08T06:28:31
2024-01-12T13:15:11
2024-01-12T13:15:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-4Fx2gcZmoiy9qN70t7aB
Will the Steelers continue a winning streak and take down the Bills?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T05:25:44
2024-01-15T20:59:00
2024-01-16T07:09:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7MVHiJ842nfYMKmxUBcV
NFL Wild Card: Will Dallas Cowboys win against Green Bay Packers by more than 7.5 points
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T04:40:14
2024-01-14T16:44:00
2024-01-14T16:44:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pzc1odzdi6dw5maRr9gr
Will the Las Vegas Sphere go bankrupt in 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T04:33:06
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-04T08:26:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Rddx2KCm44jkJR3ZQ6Nv
Will Business Insider admit errors in the story accusing Bill Ackman’s wife of plagiarism or fire the reporter by 31 Mar
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T04:31:37
2024-03-30T16:59:00
2024-03-30T20:43:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uJDhvhQSYw4Nd48OxVwK
Will Destiny talk to Glenn Greenwald during 2024?
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place. Only counts if it occurs after this market's creation. Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
2024-01-08T03:59:59
2024-01-30T16:03:53
2024-01-30T16:03:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IAuNXejDGCGp2uffZ50v
Will self-driving cars account for more than 50% of all vehicles on the road in any country by 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-08T02:55:25
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-16T06:17:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ftztjSiWcenr0edsJS6y
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 20 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025 Different number of views: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc (this question) @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7...
2024-01-08T02:48:21
2025-02-25T15:03:46
2025-02-25T15:03:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2hK11KkBif5HwRwFt0CP
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 200M views before 2025?
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 200 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025 Different number of views: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88 @/RemNi...
2024-01-08T02:43:49
2025-02-25T15:03:59
2025-02-25T15:03:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qYutbri4UIuPFpSXAiZy
Will OpenAI announce GPT-4.5 before March 2024?
Resolves YES on an official, public announcement from OpenAI that they have a model called GPT-4.5 that will be available at some point. Doesn't have to be released or available to anyone, just announced in some official way. Announcement must be public before March, Pacific Time. Must actually be a model (or family ...
2024-01-07T22:36:36
2024-03-01T00:25:14
2024-03-01T00:25:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ABPYeCxbz3YxHLATGDni
Will Lauren Boebert still be a Member of Congress in 2025?
This will resolve YES if Lauren Boebert is a member of the United States Congress in any capacity in 2025.
2024-01-07T22:34:23
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-31T23:54:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nw3kDQGO6xK235Vj7jgg
Will there be a tie score in the 2024/25 NFL season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T21:16:58
2025-01-05T20:35:23
2025-01-05T20:35:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pl76sez0clYZiVwPDgWs
Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 Wild Card
[image]
2024-01-07T20:31:17
2024-01-13T20:18:14
2024-01-13T20:18:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Esol0j1ubxf77iMxD33V
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Pittsburgh Steelers? 🏈 Wild Card
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T20:29:13
2024-01-15T16:44:03
2024-01-15T16:44:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-XHHcceDAnzMLeCt9iFkG
Will the Steelers beat the Bills in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T20:22:43
2024-01-15T16:44:26
2024-01-15T16:44:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4g6m54bZwC1U7l1Xct82
Will the Dolphins beat the Chiefs in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T20:21:43
2024-01-13T21:25:36
2024-01-13T21:25:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ja0WUaAXRuco4wUWSztN
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #2 Buffalo Bills (home) beat the #7 Pittsburgh Steelers in the 2024 Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T19:35:16
2024-01-15T16:58:22
2024-01-15T16:58:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k35GqKiDWTX9ljqK1QGt
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #3 Kansas City Chiefs (home) beat the #6 Miami Dolphins in the 2024 Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T19:34:22
2024-01-13T20:25:02
2024-01-13T20:25:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sKIRi0ahwB6MetSsCJRi
NFL Wild Card Round: will the #4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (home) beat the #5 Philadelphia Eagles in the 2024 Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T19:32:20
2024-01-15T20:21:17
2024-01-15T20:21:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FXxilbyzHPoo3TwVg1X8
NFL Playoff Wild Card Round: will the #2 Dallas Cowboys (home) beat the #7 Green Bay Packers in the 2024 Playoffs?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T19:31:10
2024-01-14T16:58:24
2024-01-14T16:58:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lLNfvomW4FJStz8p7B6h
Will Apple use the word "AI" in the 2024's developer conference (WWDC) keynote?
In Apple's 2023 Worldwide Developer Conference (WWDC) neither "AI" or "artificial intelligence" was ever uttered. (See the keynote & transcript: https://developer.apple.com/videos/play/wwdc2023/101/) It's a good bet that Apple purposefully didn't use these terms to at least distinguish themselves from the "AI hype". ...
2024-01-07T19:09:10
2024-06-10T11:37:49
2024-06-10T11:37:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yg9STxSOodwSPmTyfMmq
Will there be a Peacock exclusive playoff game in the 2024/25 NFL season?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T19:04:29
2024-10-01T12:13:01
2024-10-01T12:13:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3fI1ugaDxWC4hdPXPypy
Will the Detroit Lions rip-apart the LA Rams? 🏈 Wild Card
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
2024-01-07T18:31:38
2024-01-14T20:02:26
2024-01-14T20:02:26
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-62I8uQGQmnpchUcDyisd
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 Wild Card
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
2024-01-07T18:28:52
2024-01-15T20:19:02
2024-01-15T20:19:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MxSBdRBv2p8F9zN7ydFI
Will the Cleveland Browns knockout the Houston Texans? 🏈 Wild Card
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
2024-01-07T18:26:43
2024-01-13T16:25:53
2024-01-13T16:25:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AFF5o9hrXtfPa0GpdnR9
Will there be an Irish Unification of 2024?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Ireland Star Trek makes reference to an "Irish Unification of 2024".
2024-01-07T18:21:19
2024-12-31T07:59:00
2024-12-31T10:20:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-eGqcWxAKMBElpwbrfOJT
Will the Steelers outperform the Eagles in the 2024 NFL Playoffs?
The Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles are two football teams with polar opposite trajectories. The Steelers became hot at the last minute, making the playoffs as the last AFC seed. The Eagles started as the league's best team, before losing several games and being blown out by the 5-11 Giants. Which Pennsy...
2024-01-07T17:48:27
2024-01-16T04:06:17
2024-01-16T04:06:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-gZrfQUin7DyAd2emHZBc
Will Bitcoin reach $60,000 in 2024?
Will Bitcoin go that high this year?
2024-01-07T17:10:03
2024-03-08T08:31:42
2024-03-08T08:31:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-N6ma1NweFHOdMslu0hEK
Will the Rams defeat the Lions in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T16:36:02
2024-01-14T20:02:25
2024-01-14T20:02:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U3XvIhfArlR8jsungHDz
Will the Eagles defeat the Buccaneers in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T16:35:06
2024-01-15T20:19:34
2024-01-15T20:19:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BTyxXJQMZ8PYeGCrLYDR
Will the Packers defeat the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T16:34:04
2024-01-14T16:51:08
2024-01-14T16:51:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jqqmrsVLgGiKFNaNQKRn
Will the Browns defeat the Texans in the Wild Card Round?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T16:32:40
2024-01-13T16:27:45
2024-01-13T16:27:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZzpXY6aWqGdQQA86azti
Will Destiny talk to Ana Kasparian by the end of February 2024?
Any instance of Destiny directing his words at Ana in the same voice call or in person will resolve YES. Twitter live chats or call-ins from either Ana or Destiny will also count.
2024-01-07T16:17:34
2024-03-01T00:00:00
2024-03-01T00:07:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qbOGxGS6pMDK0YzSPLjw
Will China send pandas to the US by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T15:42:29
2024-08-04T17:25:40
2024-08-04T17:25:40
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-J4atNWqL1UuQC7h5nSTj
Will a category 4 or higher hurricane make landfall in the US in October 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T14:56:29
2024-10-31T20:59:00
2024-11-01T03:31:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-apkLvgICS5N9grScXEpH
Will 2024 TIME Person of the Year be the person, who have already won it?
This market will resolve YES, if TIME Person of the Year is named the person that has been already been named this title. Groups, ideas, and other "persons" do not count for YES.
2024-01-07T14:35:15
2024-12-12T12:42:48
2024-12-12T12:42:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yb5zQGiq58tERVGq4BBk
🏈 2023 NFL: Will the Super Bowl end in Scorigami?
Scorigami explained: https://nflscorigami.com/ Scorigami frequency: https://twitter.com/search?q=%22That%27s%20Scorigami!!%22%20(from%3Anfl_scorigami)&src=typed_query&f=live
2024-01-07T14:33:22
2024-02-11T20:59:00
2024-02-12T16:42:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6hx0tIpTIN3zGp2BEeA5
Will Lauren Boebert be charged with a crime during 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2024-01-07T14:12:54
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T00:50:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PxDqpg1Aw96lakp3nLAR
Will Peloton Interactive Inc go bankrupt by the end of 2024?
This will resolve as YES if Peloton Interactive Inc files for bankruptcy. It will resolve as NO otherwise.
2024-01-07T13:13:15
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-09T11:52:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qfPAA00hid9tLSdg7tN2
Will SP get a seat in the European parliament?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_European_Parliament_election https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialist_Party_(Netherlands)
2024-01-07T12:40:04
2024-06-14T09:20:43
2024-06-14T09:20:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Iz1xn1GR0DF0StwrVm6p
2024: Will Bitcoin dominance reach 60%?
Resolves on Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#bitcoin-dominance [image]
2024-01-07T11:10:56
2024-11-02T13:21:34
2024-11-02T13:21:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6msKjJemNsRlSvbxvPsI
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 4%?
popular vote any other candidate than Rep/Dems (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty-f4fe10cda993) (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty)
2024-01-07T10:29:03
2024-11-30T14:59:00
2024-12-03T13:50:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-haCNm2O2Mkx4cuBEGM9G
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 50M views before 2025?
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 50 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025 Different number of views: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88 (this quest...
2024-01-07T06:58:02
2025-02-25T15:03:51
2025-02-25T15:03:51
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KdYpsH1PlUAc7f2wb6NR
Will the Las Vegas Aces be crowned the WNBA Champions in 2024?
The Women's National Basketball Association (WNBA) is an American professional basketball league. It is composed of 12 teams, all based in the United States of America. The past two years have seen the Las Vegas Aces crowned the WNBA Champions. Pre-season odds favour the Las Vega Aces.
2024-01-07T06:15:33
2024-10-12T15:59:00
2024-10-13T05:50:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-K0znMsPYkQsrq0iQJZjX
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 2%?
popular vote any other candidate than Rep/Dems (https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty)
2024-01-07T05:48:59
2024-11-30T14:59:00
2024-12-03T13:50:16
no
MANIFOLD