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mani-3Xl7SaKyA82D5HejnNjy
|
2024 US Election: Will a third-party candidate get 3%?
|
popular vote
any other candidate than Rep/Dems
(https://manifold.markets/embed/itsTomekK/2024-us-election-will-a-thirdparty-f4fe10cda993)
|
2024-01-07T05:48:42
|
2024-11-30T14:59:00
|
2024-12-03T13:50:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-adUs3RQl3ZCyNtWzGA1F
|
Will Trump talk to both Putin and Zelensky within a day of his election?
|
Donald Trump has claimed in May 2023:
"If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin”.
He later explained:
“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.
He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”
I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:
The Russia-Ukraine war is still in an active phase when Trump is elected.
It is confirmed by Trump, Putin and Zelensky (or their representatives) that Trump has talked to both of them, jointly or separately, by the end of the day after his election.
"Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. talks to Putin immediately after the election is called but to Zelensky on the day of his inauguration, this doesn't count.
UPD: Trump talking to Zelensky but not Putin after the election was called does not yet trigger a "no" resolution. It is still possible that he will call both of them between the time he is officially elected by the Electoral College and the end of the subsequent day, or call both between the inauguration and the end of the subsequent day.
The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-trump-solve-the-russiaukraine)
|
2024-01-07T01:29:30
|
2025-01-25T14:59:00
|
2025-01-26T02:45:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FpOETLujTpp1OB9Bfw1R
|
Will Trump solve the Russia-Ukraine war within a day of his election?
|
Donald Trump has claimed in May 2023:
"If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin”.
He later explained:
“I know Zelensky very well, I know Putin very well—even better—and I had a very good relationship with both of them,” he said.
He said he would tell Mr Zelensky: “No more, you gotta make a deal,” and Mr Putin: “If you don’t make a deal, we’re gonna give them a lot. We’re gonna give more than they ever got.”
I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:
The Russia-Ukraine war is still in an active phase when Trump is elected.
Significant progress towards peace is reached by the end of the day after Trump's election. Examples would include the conclusion of a ceasefire with a commitment by both sides to more permanent peace talks while it holds, or the preliminary establishment of the details of a peace settlement agreeable to both sides. Trump talking to both sides, or presenting a peace plan that is not acceptable to one of the sides, does not suffice.
The peace settlement reached in the first day is hammered out and officially signed within a month, without large-scale hostilities breaking out again.
"Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. starts the negotiation process immediately after the election is called but only concludes it the day of his inauguration, this doesn't fall under the "within a day" claim.
The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.
The criteria are subjective to a degree - feel free to ask about particular cases.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-trump-talk-to-both-putin-and-z)(https://manifold.markets/embed/jacobsaysheyyy/if-trump-is-elected-us-president-in)
|
2024-01-07T01:25:56
|
2025-01-22T07:58:18
|
2025-01-22T07:58:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AEfktNuGP0GJUZIa97Pw
|
Will Jimmy Carter die during the 2nd week of 2024 (Jan 7-Jan 13)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the 2nd week of 2024 (Jan 7-Jan 13)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the 2nd week of 2024 (Jan 7-Jan 13)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2024-01-06T21:52:01
|
2024-01-13T20:59:00
|
2024-01-13T22:48:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CoTD7YV2IYRjlhpxtQFL
|
Will the Twitter Wikipedia article be moved to X by the end of 2024? 🐦⁉️
|
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_(social_network))“Twitter” redirecting to “X”, or not talking about the current X / Twitter platform would cause this to resolve YES.
Having a disambiguation like “X (social network)” is fine, and this would still resolve YES.
The move would need to be agreed to by editors, a rogue move by a single editor doesn’t count.
|
2024-01-06T18:54:08
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:27:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-67X0s4VYZPPj7JGR9IF2
|
Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland as an independent state before 2025?
|
Before 2025
A clear statement from the Ethiopian government would be enough, they don't have to open an embassy
|
2024-01-06T18:53:01
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:58:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N12sVfR1ysbnDu4sR8Xx
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 100 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-2cee92f50e35@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-f31c516403e4
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-06T18:24:46
|
2025-02-25T15:03:55
|
2025-02-25T15:03:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4TuylqtnqH6jqZv7Wy2m
|
Will the Supreme Court rule on whether or not Donald Trump engaged/aided an insurrection on January 6?
|
A number of cases are expected before the Court related to Trump and insurrection, including the Colorado ballot access case and Trump's appeal on immunity while in office. The Supreme Court could decide each of these without specifying whether or not Trump engaged in or gave aid to insurrection. Some expect the Court to punt on the central question of whether or not Jan 6 was an insurrection when making these rulings, wanting to avoid a political third rail.
This market is about whether or not the Court will take up the question of whether 1/6 was an insurrection, not on how they will answer it.
For example, the following would resolve YES:
Affirming Colorado's decision to take Trump off the ballot, specifying that he meets the criteria of the 14th Amendment's Section 3
Overturning the decision, on the grounds that Trump did not commit insurrection on 1/6
Text in a majority or concurring decision saying 1/6 was an insurrection
Text in a majority or concurring decision saying 1/6 was not an insurrection
Examples that do not include the above, but do include the following would resolve NO:
Affirming Colorado's decision on states' rights grounds without directly addressing whether 1/6 was an insurrection
Overturning the decision, ruling narrowly that disqualification requires enforcement legislation/a writ of quo warranto
Overturning; ruling narrowly that the 14th Amendment doesn't apply to candidates and only takes effect upon taking office
Overturning; ruling narrowly that Trump was not "an officer"
Text in a majority decision saying the Court will address the question of whether 1/6 was an insurrection in the future
This Federalist Society discussion may provide helpful context, as a majority of the justices have been involved in FedSoc and the legal theories it takes seriously. https://fedsoc.org/commentary/fedsoc-blog/2023-national-lawyers-convention-insurrection-the-14th-amendment
Because this is subjective, I won't trade. Question closes on 3/31, but I will extend if there are delays in the Colorado trial.
|
2024-01-06T18:21:16
|
2024-03-04T07:33:31
|
2024-03-04T07:33:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ATPYLISf9ixr1gWQrCL
|
Will 200,000 or more Gazans voluntarily emigrate by the end of 2024?
|
Total Emigration Count: The question will be affirmatively resolved if, by December 31, 2024, it is reported that at least 200,000 residents of the Gaza Strip have voluntarily emigrated.
Definition of Voluntary Emigration: Voluntary emigration refers to the act of leaving the Gaza Strip to settle in another country by choice, without external compulsion or immediate threats to safety for non-compliance.
Source of Information: The determination will be based on information from credible sources such as the United Nations agencies, the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, international migration and refugee organizations, or government immigration departments of recipient countries.
Intent of Permanent or Long-Term Residency: The emigration should be with the intention of long-term or permanent residency in the new country, rather than temporary relocation or short-term stays.
Exclusion of Return Migrants: The count should exclude individuals who emigrate from the Gaza Strip but return within the same year.
Public Availability and Verifiability of Data: The data or report used as a proxy measure must be publicly available and verifiable as of December 31, 2024, to ensure transparency and objectivity in the resolution process.
|
2024-01-06T15:55:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:10:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B7qtNherBMWUKXsJnKTf
|
🔥 Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
|
Will More Than 1,000,000 Acres Burn During The 2024 California Wildfire Season?
RESOLUTION
Resolves YES if 1,000,001+ acres are burned in 2024.
Resolves NO if 1,000,000- acres are burned in 2024.
INFORMATION
Data may not be available for up to 1-2 weeks after the end of year.
Source Used: CALFIRE 2024
Prior 10 Years :(Average per year: 1,355,802)
2023: 324,917
2022: 331,360
2021: 2,569,386
2020: 4,304,379
2019: 277,285
2018: 1,975,086
2017: 1,599,640
2016: 669,534
2015: 880,899 (estimated)
2014: 625,540 (estimated)
Clarifications & Notes:
01/06/2024 ; None at this time.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DistinctlySkeptical/-will-more-than-1355802-acres-burn)DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2024-01-06T15:46:01
|
2024-09-30T13:12:32
|
2024-09-30T13:12:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rHJMWdhLz1Lm330C6WJA
|
Will Lloyd Austin announce his resignation as Secretary of Defense during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-06T15:44:16
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:29:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BCke2A32YOCIzPj2vH1O
|
Will Elon Musk dunk on Destiny's romantic/sex life during 2024?
|
It doesn't have to be while talking to Destiny, as long as it's publicly streamed or posted. Twitter counts.
It has to be a joke, harsh criticism, or pivot to count as a dunk. If I judge that Elon Musk only commented on it because it was on topic AND seemed to be trying to be as respectful as possible, it doesn't count.
|
2024-01-06T13:46:24
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:51:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zdmh6d4rFBMxyhCF9HEo
|
Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale IN February, 2024?
|
Pacific Time.
Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.
## Please note that this market is specifically for whether it goes on sale in FEBRUARY.
- If it goes on sale on January, or March, or any month after that, this market will resolve to no.
- This market resolves to YES only if the product is available for purchase by the end users in Feb
|
2024-01-06T11:05:18
|
2024-02-03T01:47:46
|
2024-02-03T01:47:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KEvgu7FyUWYaIXGUZ44w
|
Neither Joe Biden nor Donald Trump will be inaugurated president in January 2025.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-06T08:52:48
|
2024-10-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-20T11:46:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Hq2FJb62ynonWeGvrqS
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut the Fed Funds rate by at least 0.50% at any FOMC meeting in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-06T07:31:57
|
2024-09-18T12:08:53
|
2024-09-18T12:08:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GOUUASsfvuUfpy7ACMai
|
Will Jamaal Bowman win his Democratic primary this year?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-06T07:28:19
|
2024-06-25T18:43:59
|
2024-06-25T18:43:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cwYOSnI9sarM1E2RmhkQ
|
Will a new major war break out in 2024?
|
Market resolves YES if at the beginning of 2025, a new entry has been added to the "major wars" category of the Wikipedia list of ongoing armed conflicts.
Current list:
[image]
|
2024-01-06T06:13:35
|
2025-01-08T14:59:00
|
2025-01-14T15:33:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MoMG8UO5KHBgjpnJVnIR
|
Will the ULA's 1st Vulcan Centaur launch be successful?
|
[image]
|
2024-01-06T05:07:44
|
2024-01-08T07:23:50
|
2024-01-08T07:23:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jAKpVPJKhQFt65A5anyF
|
Will Xi Jinping visit Israel during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-05T20:03:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:00:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KiKf7TttQEnkiTbW3j8d
|
Will Apple release a successor to the AirPods Max in 2024?
|
Any Apple-branded over-ear headphones that are clearly a successor to the original AirPods Max will resolve YES. They needn't be called "AirPods Max" specifically for a positive resolution.
The headphones must be in consumer hands and generally available in at least one country.
Clarification: It has to be a somewhat substantial update. For example, just adding a new color or USB-C port wouldn’t count.
|
2024-01-05T18:59:04
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:12:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TFuABhfhhPLl7ADB5YJt
|
Will Joe Biden publicly acknowledge the existence of Cenk Uygur before Cenk Uygur drops from the race?
|
For the purposes of this question, Cenk Uygur is running for president if Cenk Uygur thinks Cenk Uygur is running for president.
Joe Biden must specifically refer to Cenk Uygur, it is not enough for him to say "other people trying to run" or something vague like that. It is enough if Biden describes Cenk, ie "that loud guy from youtube trying to become president".
If Cenk Uygur refuses to admit defeat like the proud Turkish American warrior he is, then this resolves NO when another person is chosen as the Democratic nominee.
|
2024-01-05T17:24:52
|
2024-03-07T02:18:31
|
2024-03-07T02:18:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MsMHcWL2JQ0ajYBRwz6M
|
Will Bitcoin ETF approvals be a "sell the news" event?
|
This question will resolve YES if the price of Bitcoin drops more than 2% in the first hour after the first Bitcoin ETF is given final approval. Otherwise, it will resolve NO.
The starting time of this hour window will be the closest minute preceeding the first credible news report or X post announcing the approval(s).
Final approval is defined as overcoming every hurdle in the regulatory approval process. If it is widely reported as being "approved", it will count.
Market end date will be extended if necessary.
|
2024-01-05T16:51:51
|
2024-01-10T14:35:13
|
2024-01-10T14:35:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aWpiwhP4AVffkcIMtNJa
|
Will Robert F Kennedy Jr. win any state in the 2024 United States presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-05T15:48:01
|
2024-11-10T07:04:12
|
2024-11-10T07:04:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YeCdbwV7SUaT8E8s21Vw
|
Will BTC get ETF approval this month?
|
Black rocks, ark invest …
|
2024-01-05T15:44:53
|
2024-01-11T10:16:21
|
2024-01-11T10:16:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uz9VRID52t3w9SrATRF
|
Will any MIT faculty, officer, board member, or administrator lose their job in 2024 due to plagiarism?
|
Bloomberg - 1/5/2024:
Ackman Wants MIT Faculty Plagiarism Check After Wife Accused
Bill Ackman said on Friday he will begin checks on the work of all current faculty members of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology for plagiarism...
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-05/ackman-wants-plagiarism-checks-on-mit-faculty-after-wife-accused?embedded-checkout=true
Bill Ackman - 1/5/2024:
"We will begin with a review of the work of all current @MIT faculty members, President Kornbluth, other officers of the Corporation, and its board members for plagiarism. We will be using MIT's own plagiarism standards which can be found here: https://integrity.mit.edu/handbook/what-plagiarism… We will share our findings in the public domain as they are completed in the spirit of transparency."
https://twitter.com/BillAckman/status/1743407502312505795
|
2024-01-05T15:43:07
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T23:29:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lZvaYQQaqwZu6m13IC8E
|
Will an LLM be able to solve confusing but elementary geometric reasoning problems in 2024? (strict LLM version)
|
This is a variant of the following market:
https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus
In this version, the problem has to be solved purely by the LLM itself.
Open question: Does GPT-o1 count as "strictly an LLM"? Seems super ambiguous to me. I've sold my shares in this market so I can just make a judgment call. The default is yes, it counts, but if I hear a compelling counterargument in the comments, I'll make an update.
|
2024-01-05T14:36:03
|
2025-01-01T18:17:51
|
2025-01-01T18:17:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EEWPiFvtVO1J2euE1PhF
|
Will Nikki Haley win the 2024 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-05T14:17:15
|
2024-01-23T20:59:00
|
2024-01-24T02:55:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KTIGrGjY04o8duM8mWHj
|
Will Bitcoin Reach $50k By Feb 1st 2024?
|
Place your bets on if Bitcoin will grow to 50k per, by February 1st 2024
|
2024-01-05T09:41:01
|
2024-02-01T08:04:20
|
2024-02-01T08:04:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-poQjsOwFpOCsSlelifCK
|
Will Patrick Rothfuss release “Doors of Stone” before December 31, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-05T09:13:42
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-16T21:02:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PM6fr8kYpzigv4Tnp0Zr
|
Will Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit the same country in 2024?
|
Will there be any country which both Putin and Zelenskyy will visit at some point in 2024? They do not have to visit at the same time.
Please note that Putin's possible visits to Ukrainian territory annexed/controlled by Russia will not count.
|
2024-01-05T08:26:30
|
2024-12-30T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:07:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YEsuywvaxycpUgUGdBFw
|
Will Apple acquire Peloton in 2024?
|
An official announcement by Apple or Peloton of a full acquisition is enough, doesn’t need to finalize this year. A partnership, partial asset transfer, or any other agreement does not count.
From Deepwater’s Gene Munster prediction #6 here:
[image]Gene on CNBC video: “the stars are starting to line up”
|
2024-01-05T07:04:05
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00
|
2025-01-01T00:50:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kD11dC83MGLNYeQaLbLb
|
Will the major-party loser of the 2024 presidential election concede by Jan 20, 2025?
|
Will the loser admit defeat in a public statement before the next inauguration?
|
2024-01-05T05:32:14
|
2024-11-19T15:03:56
|
2024-11-19T15:03:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-W6ctebqG0guUDXhqOZwm
|
🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful Launches In 2024?
|
Will SpaceX Achieve 120 Successful launches in 2024?
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
LAUNCH COUNT
January: 10
February: 9
March: 13
April: 12
May: 14
June: 11
July: 5
August: 12
September: 9
October: 12
November: TBD
December: TBD
TOTAL: 107
NOTES:
Monthly SpaceX Launch Markets
CLARIFICATIONS:
1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
100 Goal Market
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-spacex-achieve-100-successful)(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-spacex-achieve-135-successful)[tweet]
|
2024-01-05T04:50:10
|
2024-11-30T06:58:07
|
2024-11-30T06:58:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9GhmN8ZZOxLxhHr6qE19
|
Will an AI generated video reach 250 million views on YouTube before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 250 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-05T04:28:58
|
2025-01-08T23:15:52
|
2025-01-08T23:15:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BQMigExXmzR5lTfFtLiw
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 500M views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 500 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-2980f2a38146
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-335b1ff18e5b
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-05T04:24:55
|
2025-01-10T14:59:00
|
2025-02-25T15:03:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ntJCiDI31d75DxSV6VTM
|
Will Reform UK be ahead of the Conservative Party in an opinion poll before the next general election?
|
Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 5% to 10% for the past few months and hit a new high of 11%a few times in December:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will they beat the Conservative Party in a national poll between now and the general election?
Market notes:
The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.
The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count
If a poll is released which shows the two parties tied on the same percentage (eg. Labour 42%, Conservative 18%, Reform UK 18%), that won’t count even if looking into the data shows that Reform would have been ahead before rounding
Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.
|
2024-01-05T04:20:56
|
2024-06-13T14:10:35
|
2024-06-13T14:10:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2qEcsgYsehGSasVtMT06
|
Will Reform UK poll at 15% or above before the next general election?
|
Reform UK (the latest incarnation of the Brexit Party) have been polling at around 5% to 10% for the past few months and hit a new high of 11%a few times in December:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Will they poll at 15% or above before the general election?
Market notes:
The only polls which count are those carried out by members of the British Polling Council (all the pollsters you see on the Wiki page are members) and must be of the whole of the UK or GB. No polls of swing voters, marginal constituencies, etc. would count.
The poll must be of general election voting intention. So no nationwide polling for local elections or hypothetical things like “how would you vote if Farage was leader of the Conservatives” would count
If a poll is released with a headline figure of Reform on 15%, this market will resolve to YES even if digging into the data shows that it would have been 14.x% before rounding
Where possible I will use the table at https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election as the source of truth for this market. If the criteria for inclusion or reporting on that page changes to the point where that isn’t possible, I will base this on the primary polling data. If there are any shenanigans or it looks like anyone has edited the Wiki page to manipulate this market, I will resolve based on the spirit of the market rather than this source.
|
2024-01-05T04:17:49
|
2024-03-21T03:17:28
|
2024-03-21T03:17:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y10UeU5l2TlizDIE6XlC
|
Vox Prediction 2024: Starship will complete a launch without either stage exploding
|
A test where neither the first nor second stage of the rocket is lost due to an explosion or “unscheduled rapid disassembly,” to use the term SpaceX employed to describe the fate of the second stage during the second test flight this year.
Vox has this at 65%
|
2024-01-05T04:15:10
|
2024-06-06T11:06:50
|
2024-06-06T11:06:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VKrmeSDzxf2dSDSMVA7n
|
Given a brief video, AI can build a 3D model to realistically recreate the scene from a new angle, by 2030?
|
See a short video of a scene,
then be able to construct a 3D model of the scene good enough to create a realistic video of the same scene from a substantially different angle
For example, constructing a short video of walking through a house
from a video taking a very different path through the house.
|
2024-01-05T02:54:20
|
2024-01-09T09:55:00
|
2024-01-09T09:55:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QqZ15ZRD8tZx959J5SsA
|
Will OpenAI release Gpt-5 before May 1, 2024?
|
Not inclusive of beta release
|
2024-01-05T02:11:31
|
2024-05-01T04:59:00
|
2024-05-05T18:15:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QC9GSoJ8kHfkorZoB5nf
|
Will Mitch McConnell have another "episode" during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T22:57:44
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T15:08:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hBCftGanAXX0FMYuj27V
|
Will Xi Jinping sit for an interview with a major US media outlet by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T22:42:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:08:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kk1syJggLyM5DHJPwNW1
|
Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2024 hurricane season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T22:41:18
|
2024-12-31T15:06:10
|
2024-12-31T15:06:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kHcoWe0oBkVCO1DLiBBJ
|
Will Claudine Gay be replaced by a white male?
|
Disregarding Alan M. Garber, the interim, will the next president (replacing Claudine Gay) be a white male?
|
2024-01-04T22:21:14
|
2024-08-02T22:47:08
|
2024-08-02T22:47:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uSszhUJ3wzYIsQnwR9c7
|
Will The Rock face Roman Reigns at Wrestlemania 40?
|
Resolves Yes if The Rock and Roman Reigns have an official match during Wrestlemania 40. If not, resolves No.
|
2024-01-04T21:32:09
|
2024-04-08T23:59:00
|
2024-04-12T19:02:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kwqgO9HLbNVX19nTmfkx
|
Will Destiny appear on the Lex Fridman Podcast during 2024?
|
His debate with Ben Shapiro that was released January 23rd doesn't count
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-04T21:05:50
|
2024-03-24T14:29:06
|
2024-03-24T14:29:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7VMQDuVlVzwuhOy7S0J8
|
Will Destiny talk to Myron Gaines from Fresh&Fit during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-04T20:55:42
|
2024-03-22T23:56:41
|
2024-03-22T23:56:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xxPkd54zrKJVJgwb8NXv
|
Will Haley beat Trump in New Hampshire?
|
Very straightforward, will she get more votes in the primary in New Hampshire.
|
2024-01-04T20:31:03
|
2024-01-23T17:24:09
|
2024-01-23T17:24:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iBYNHRJSB6xNcH5WaLnh
|
If Trump wins, will democracy in the USA end?
|
Drew Reynolds17d
If Donald Trump wins the election and within 5 days of his inauguration he or Congress has made changes to election laws or the judicial precess determining elections, or, if the US has moved out of one of the democracy categories as defined by the Economist Democracy Index, it will resolve yes.
|
2024-01-04T20:23:17
|
2025-01-25T21:59:00
|
2025-01-26T16:20:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aVFYXO0QcAEGdUWt6Kad
|
Will there be a major terrorist attack within the United States this month?
|
Resolves at end of this month (January). If I find or receive (via comments) news of a major terrorist attack in the United States that is factually verified, this market will resolve yes.
|
2024-01-04T19:44:20
|
2024-02-01T21:59:00
|
2024-02-03T16:45:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sg8hoE7ki73BU3GiGHHy
|
Will "The winds of winter" be released in 2024?
|
To resolve this market is enough that the book is released in any form, even leaks
|
2024-01-04T19:35:06
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T21:53:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ujrafdwje4Wgk2o5ouLW
|
Will we learn anything in the next 6 months that would significantly alter the Sam Altman Firing Market's resolution?
|
This market
Which Sophia has considered extending to wait for an internal investigation to leak.
I think it is unlikely we will learn anything which would change how the market should resolve in the next six months, whether from this potential leak or from anything else.
If we do learn something that I think would have significantly changed how the market should resolution, this market will resolve yes.
I will not trade here.
|
2024-01-04T15:57:27
|
2024-07-04T23:59:00
|
2024-07-07T23:07:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YLjY7CjebJPA0OUI9JSm
|
Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 1 billion views on YouTube before January 1st 2025
Different number of views:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10-9511a17489a9
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-261fe41fe4dc
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-5580e28e7d88
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-2
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-5
Different years:
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b (this question)
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b-3290f35d888c
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b-29128e7a10e6
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria).
Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content.
In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video.
The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify.
For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree.
Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack.
Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).
|
2024-01-04T15:39:59
|
2025-01-08T23:15:33
|
2025-01-08T23:15:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-acI89nHEvJ3Ju2Kkdud5
|
Will Xi Jinping visit India during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T15:36:22
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:44:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iwv04h1EAur3a2UBvmVi
|
Will Sundar Pichai be replaced as CEO of Alphabet by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T15:34:41
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:31:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LlPiJmkZ6hG5SIJUKNhT
|
Will Israel and Iran be engaged in full scale war by the end of June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T15:29:12
|
2024-06-30T20:59:00
|
2024-06-30T21:49:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8gaYxfrvAJiJYsOu2OmI
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Donald Trump before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T15:28:01
|
2024-09-03T14:58:16
|
2024-09-03T14:58:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zCdyoq71z56EijNx00nB
|
Will Meta have a higher market cap than Tesla at the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T15:27:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:32:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q8HLWBBze1gZZDNFJdf1
|
Will Armenia and Azerbaijan have a full-scale war in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if at any point during 2024 Armenia and Azerbaijan exchange military fire for a period of two consecutive weeks OR resulting in 100 cumulative casualties.
|
2024-01-04T15:22:11
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:35:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H3Q3Kw4O0n0d3Bosbclp
|
[Kalshi] Will near room-temp Meissner effect be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal this year?
|
Will near room-temp Meissner effect be reported by a major peer-reviewed journal?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If an eligible peer-reviewed journal has reported that a material is superconductive near room-temperature, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.scimagojr.com/journalrank.php
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-04T14:56:04
|
2025-01-02T07:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:56:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n2vUgKDOeIl0JGkEQ3qS
|
Will US Q4 2023 real GDP growth be above 2.75%
|
Question will be settled according to Q4 Advanced Estimates here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
You can also see one of many forecasts here: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
|
2024-01-04T13:58:34
|
2024-01-25T05:36:19
|
2024-01-25T05:36:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5jAePpy5V8wbCgebGEjI
|
Will Donald Trump win the Iowa caucus by 33 or more points?
|
Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points. If Trump does not participate in the caucus for any reason, this resolves no.
|
2024-01-04T12:35:06
|
2024-01-15T21:15:10
|
2024-01-15T21:15:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qCxPkjWtH7q6iWSVipG9
|
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2024?
|
Resolves YES if there is an earthquake with magnitude 8.0 or larger reported in https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/m8-world.php
|
2024-01-04T12:23:38
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T11:47:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-McMhrJW2cGxgkbLOFOnk
|
Will there be a plane crash in Russia with ≥100 victims?
|
Russia has limited access to parts, software, and technical skills needed to carry out critical maintenance on hundreds of commercial jets. U.S. and European sanctions have cut off the Russian carriers from any contact with plane makers, maintenance partners, and many of the suppliers for the planes’ key parts, from engines to landing gear.
Will there be a major (100 or more fatalities, including passengers, crew, and people on land) airplane crash in Russia in 2024?
|
2024-01-04T11:51:16
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:50:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-utUN9xTIlMQAJqNXYSH4
|
Do the Cowboys have a chance at the Super Bowl 2024
|
Will the make it to the super bowl
|
2024-01-04T10:57:22
|
2024-01-15T10:41:44
|
2024-01-15T10:41:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rVMq52rKitn2Aup1vRd7
|
Republicans will run the table in 2024: Winning White House, Senate, and House
|
Resolves to YES if a Republican candidate wins the White House, Republicans have a majority in the Senate, and Republicans have a majority in the House.
All ties will be resolved. For example, if the Senate is 50-50 but the VP is Republican, then Republicans will have won the Senate.
|
2024-01-04T10:55:00
|
2024-12-01T20:59:00
|
2024-12-03T09:50:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vc3IlTT8ZMYOHV7Fcd62
|
will the ravens be in the super bowl
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T10:38:09
|
2024-01-29T16:54:47
|
2024-01-29T16:54:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IEGPs8heKMbcT2zXHm4x
|
Will more than 25% of US Adults believe the 2024 Election was illegitimate in February 2025?
|
Context:
[image]Will these people feel the same way about the next election?
If it seems unclear, will wait for polling data.
If on Feb 1st 2025, nobody is claiming it was illegitimate, the loser says "womp womp I lost fair and square" and there is no real contest, I won't wait for polls as it is possible none will exist.
My intention is that the first credible poll after Feb 1, 2025 will be used to resolve this market, but if it is close or reasonably contested we can wait for additional polling.
If multiple polls fall around this number (24%, 26%, 23.5%) but one credible poll is over, I will resolve YES. If multiple polls have very different results (10%, 3%, 33%) I will likely resolve NO or dump my position and decide which polls are most credible.
|
2024-01-04T10:34:36
|
2025-02-01T05:29:00
|
2025-02-01T15:26:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w6QLci8EjJfq8TtGc8NB
|
Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale before the end of January, 2024?
|
Pacific Time.
Goes on sale anywhere in the world to end-users, not developers.
At the time of creation of market, it was assumed that the orders will be in-person only. If that's the case, no problems.
If that turnss out not to be the case, and that users can purchase the product online as well, then it would count if orders are possible via the apple website. Note that these must not be "pre-orders" but actual orders of the product for it to count.
|
2024-01-04T10:23:27
|
2024-01-09T07:42:56
|
2024-01-09T07:42:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sEASqAKiXnsvBXbft7X0
|
Will Jimmy Carter reach 99.5 years old? [april 1]
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T10:16:17
|
2024-04-01T15:55:09
|
2024-04-01T15:55:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yNP60Erl5fmdIPwyBOYv
|
Will Ron DeSantis get 20 or more points in the Iowa caucus?
|
20 or more points = 20.000… or more percent of the popular vote or most granular tally from the caucus, without rounding.
I expect them to release tallies other than delegate counts, but if only delegate counts are released, 20.000…% or more of that.
|
2024-01-04T10:13:35
|
2024-01-15T23:25:33
|
2024-01-15T23:25:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xvKKCkNsppDfWqSF20ys
|
Will Donald Trump win the Iowa caucus by 30 or more points?
|
Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points. If Trump does not participate in the caucus for any reason, this resolves no.
|
2024-01-04T10:09:07
|
2024-01-15T23:27:45
|
2024-01-15T23:27:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-puYxRl0MtzGph3wutJXV
|
Will Joe Biden say the word “abortion” during a Presidential Debate?
|
Plain and simple, will our 81 year old Catholic president say the word - and not euphemistically dodge it?
If there are no Presidential debates, or if Joe Biden does not partake in them, this will Resolve N/A.
|
2024-01-04T09:41:03
|
2024-06-27T19:31:29
|
2024-06-27T19:31:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ayYUKCVmzW82okClw4EW
|
Will Contrapoints release TWO (or more) mainline video essays in 2024?
|
This regards her major video essays on her YouTube channel. Resolution is the end of December, EST.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-contrapoints-release-a-new-mai)
|
2024-01-04T05:31:27
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:02:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Siv81MLgpIicYdcphPoy
|
Will Contrapoints release a new mainline video essay by the end of February 2024?
|
This market is about her major video essays released on her YouTube channel. Resolution is the end of February, EST.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Panfilo/will-contrapoints-release-two-mainl)
|
2024-01-04T05:27:15
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-03-01T04:04:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JPgLY31MTl09FRcLjjio
|
January 2024: Will Bitcoin fall below $40,000?
|
If in January 2024 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a low $40,000 or less, this will resolve YES.
In the case of uncertainty, the 7-day low price will be used.
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2024-01-04T04:10:59
|
2024-01-22T14:04:20
|
2024-01-22T14:04:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0aoQiPcv47AS85rAIZs1
|
Will China's population drop in 2024?
|
i.e. If the population at the end of 2024 in China is less than the population at the end of 2023.
|
2024-01-04T03:38:53
|
2025-01-04T07:02:30
|
2025-01-04T07:02:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WEb8Bnw35uC7RQamhXLW
|
Gaat Frans Timmermans in 2024 de tweede kamer verlaten?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-04T02:40:24
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T09:50:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TGyzPrfZm84dUOJ5tDYt
|
Will there be a sub 7-minute Minecraft world record by the end of June 2024?
|
This resolves yes if a world record is confirmed as less than 7 minutes on speedrun.com/mc (Any% glitchless, random seed, 1.16+) before 12:00 AM Eastern time (US) on July 1st 2024
|
2024-01-04T02:32:06
|
2024-07-01T14:43:28
|
2024-07-01T14:43:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bugpFzphz8StwPraoFVg
|
Australian Open 2024: Will Aryna Sabalenka defend her title?
|
Aryna Sabalenka is the defending women's singles champion.
Resolves YES if she defends her title. Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2024-01-04T00:34:12
|
2024-01-27T03:42:04
|
2024-01-27T03:42:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TCPZGY4X2KKpELryYFof
|
Australian Open 2024: Will Novak Djokovic defend his title?
|
Novak Djokovic is the defending men's singles champion.
Resolves YES if he wins the australian open men's singles 2024 i.e. defends his title. Resolves NO otherwise
|
2024-01-04T00:32:59
|
2024-01-26T08:01:34
|
2024-01-26T08:01:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-blEe399NdAmYbrv3prB8
|
Australian Open 2024: Will both Djokovic and Sabalenka defend their titles?
|
Novak Djokovic is the defending men's singles champion.
Aryna Sabalenka is the defending women's singles champion.
Market will resolve to YES if both of these title holders successfully defend their title. Market will resolve to NO if either of these title holders fails to defend their title i.e. there's a new champion.
|
2024-01-04T00:30:55
|
2024-01-26T08:01:41
|
2024-01-26T08:01:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Zf65FrOXTUr4Cjl2ANZo
|
Will Michigan beat Washington to win the college football championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-03T17:52:30
|
2024-01-08T20:11:19
|
2024-01-08T20:11:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qrrqMws7KyGMjuNct1Y9
|
Will Starship–Super Heavy deliver a payload to orbit in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Starship–Super Heavy delivers any payload to Earth orbit in 2024.
The payload can be anything at all, even a test mass, as long as it is described by SpaceX as a payload. This therefore excludes incidental space junk falling off of Starship, or anything like that (and excludes Starship itself).
Deployment of a payload must be confirmed by SpaceX before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.
|
2024-01-03T17:30:24
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:18:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4LQqThloqca4Slfnr0p1
|
Will the Republicans control the US House after the 2024 election?
|
This question resolves after the Associated Press projects which party will control the United States House following the 2024 US general election and all relevant runoff/special elections.
This question resolves YES if the Republican Party will be in control, or NO otherwise. This question will wait to resolve until 48 hours after the house majority has been called by the AP, to ensure that the call is not retracted.
If there are independents/3rd party winners that are known to be intending to caucus with a major party (GOP or Democrats), they will be included as part of party control.
If at the time of the general election there are already scheduled special elections on which control hinges, or a runoff is triggered by the general election, this question will wait for those to resolve.
|
2024-01-03T17:16:56
|
2024-11-16T11:53:56
|
2024-11-16T11:53:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TPLKhjts2rLerqUEJY2E
|
Will the S&P 500 be up on March 1st at the close of trading
|
Will be resolved as yes if the S&P 500 is up(in %) from what it was on january 1st 2024.
Will be resolved as no if the S&P 500 is down(in %) from what it was on january 1st 2024.
|
2024-01-03T16:29:21
|
2024-03-01T23:59:00
|
2024-03-04T21:29:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wVLtywONGCX65GPUelV3
|
Will there be a second civil aviation airport collision with fatalities in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-03T16:27:27
|
2025-01-08T23:54:32
|
2025-01-08T23:54:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T2RFjJQXNwEiIAs4L9Tg
|
Will Ukraine boycott the Paris 2024 Olympics over Russian participation?
|
Will resolve YES if the Ukrainian team does not complete in the 2024 olympics.
Will resolve YES if Ukrainian's compete as neutral athletes or on other teams, as long as they are not competing together as a recognized country.
Will resolve NO if a team is recognized by the IOC as Ukrainian that competes, displaying flags, emblems or anthems.
|
2024-01-03T15:49:10
|
2024-07-27T23:25:54
|
2024-07-27T23:25:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vZtYwBvypCLrbKTSn7LY
|
Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2025?
|
Resolves as YES if, by January 1st, 2025, Earth is equipped with an operational Space Elevator. This refers to a structure or a system of structures that extends from the surface of the Earth into space, allowing for the transport of goods and people to and from Earth's orbit without the use of traditional rocket propulsion. The Space Elevator must be capable of regular operation and able to sustain continuous movement of payloads between Earth and space.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb (this question)
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-292c3a01b029
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-46410d8053fa
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-1f72c4709f66
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-fb6b365be2a7
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-b3e81c48ed73
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-30cec2c7c4ae
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-410e262e639f
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-4fead124a575
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-a1d0a1f956a2
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-108243356386
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-5027258fe404@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-f447d8800dd3
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Space_Elevator.png
|
2024-01-03T14:35:05
|
2025-02-18T22:21:49
|
2025-02-18T22:21:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wApp98kwF62qP4vxE6ta
|
Will Putin’s official elections result exceed 90%?
|
This question resolves yes if everything in the list is true:
Presidential elections in Russia go as planned at March 17 2024
Vladimir Putin is in the ballot
Russian voting authority announced a final result by March 24
The final result has more that 90 percent indicated as voting for Vladimir Putin
Otherwise it resolves no.
|
2024-01-03T13:52:01
|
2024-03-22T13:18:36
|
2024-03-22T13:18:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-43MNvRSuAv7nwHAifRf3
|
Will Michael Penix Jr. be selected in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-03T13:52:01
|
2024-04-25T18:07:51
|
2024-04-25T18:07:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-i7siiBzrPWvUpAOxAMBq
|
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2025?
|
Resolves yes if there is a model that receives a natural language description (e.g."Give me a video of a puppy playing with a kitten") and outputs a realistic looking video matching the description.
It does *not* have to be *undetectable* as AI generated, merely "realistic enough".
It must be able to consistently generate realistic videos >=30 seconds long to count.
DALL-E 2 (https://cdn.openai.com/papers/dall-e-2.pdf) counts as "realistic enough" *image* generation from natural language descriptions (I am writing this before the model is fully available, if it turns out that all the samples are heavily cherry picked DALL-E 2 does not count but a hypothetical model as good as the cherry picked examples would).
Duplicate of https://manifold.markets/vluzko/will-there-be-realistic-ai-generate
Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Videos must be coherent throughout the full duration - meaning they must maintain consistency with the original prompt for the entire video without shifting between unrelated scenes
Looped scenes do not count
A single example of a successful video is not sufficient for resolution
The video must show continuous action/motion (like "two people walking down a city street having a conversation") for the full duration
Update 2024-24-12 (PST): - The success rate must be at least 66% of DALL-E 2's rate, not a flat rate. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2025-05-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Evidence must be publicly available. Having the model publicly available does not suffice.
If sample videos meeting the criteria are found, the market will be delayed until more information is available.
|
2024-01-03T13:12:02
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-17T01:15:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lVSCGQiUgAkk1Q0ztoEb
|
Will Bitcoin reach $100000
|
If at any point 1BTC > $100000 in 2024 this market resolves as yes
|
2024-01-03T11:06:30
|
2024-12-06T04:44:32
|
2024-12-06T04:44:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2pOoXsxjVDydNzp3V0Nm
|
Will Bitcoin reach $90000 in 2024
|
If at any point 1BTC > $90000 in 2024, this market resolves as yes
|
2024-01-03T11:04:59
|
2024-11-13T07:44:31
|
2024-11-13T07:44:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xhuheRWi0nS379bNIAuU
|
Will Bitcoin reach $80000 in 2024
|
If at any point 1BTC > $80000 in 2024, this market resolves as yes
|
2024-01-03T11:02:33
|
2024-11-10T07:06:00
|
2024-11-10T07:06:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A8Gl4TCf9jMbt5VDSDGm
|
Will Bitcoin reach $70000 in 2024?
|
If at any point 1BTC is > $70000 in 2024 this market resolves as yes
|
2024-01-03T11:01:03
|
2024-03-10T00:29:32
|
2024-03-10T00:29:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6jWh8DGO9UJ3XJHHgWLQ
|
Will Bitcoin reach $50000 in 2024
|
If at any point 1BTC is > $50000, this market resolves as yes
|
2024-01-03T10:57:47
|
2024-02-12T09:43:01
|
2024-02-12T09:43:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eotn0ldGzYHcPfF0Ssg1
|
Will any polls show Haley leading Trump in the NH GOP presidential primary per 538?
|
Outcome is resolved on whether there is at least one poll listed on FiveThirtyEight’s page (added January 22 or earlier) where Nikki Haley has a higher percentage of respondents supporting for nomination than Donald Trump.
A poll showing both candidates at the same percentage may be evaluated further at the original source.
|
2024-01-03T10:23:18
|
2024-01-22T21:59:00
|
2024-01-23T06:57:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g4gEDLXXrHWMBGvNM0eS
|
Will Republicans lose control of the House in 2024?
|
If the United States Republicans lose their House majority at any time during 2024, this market resolves to YES.
Their majority is currently maintained by just two seats.
|
2024-01-03T09:18:32
|
2024-11-13T19:36:49
|
2024-11-13T19:36:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Or0H25Yww1uxKDbWPZGR
|
Will the Super Bowl Halftime show surpass 100M views on YouTube within a weekish
|
Only counts the official “FULL” video
Taking the count displayed on YouTube at midnight EST on Feb 17 2024
Will NA if there is no official video or if something is somehow unclear
|
2024-01-03T09:07:56
|
2024-02-17T22:59:00
|
2024-02-18T05:33:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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