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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-rxpWbsEqApvpDrY1HDtZ
|
Will wokeness recede significantly in 2024?
|
Paul Graham predicts YES (https://twitter.com/paulg/status/1742333500621996409): Prediction: Wokeness will recede significantly in 2024. There were always more people against it than there seemed, but many were afraid to say so. Now that it's safer to criticize it, more will. I think wokeness actually peaked in 2020 or 2021 and has been slowly contracting since then. If we're lucky this will be one of those things that dies, as Hemingway put it, "gradually, then suddenly."
Resolves to YES if it happened, NO if it didn't.
EDIT for clarification: This will evaluate the claim "Wokeness will recede significantly in 2024," whether or not the rest of Paul's claims age well or prove true.
Resolves to my subjective judgment, taking into account market activity (if consistently trades <11% or >89% will almost certainly resolve accordingly). If I am sufficiently uncertain I will consider using a Twitter poll.
[Resolution was originally via poll directly on day 1, but trader preference for change was clear]
|
2024-01-03T09:04:52
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:36:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lAZa8y1hNMOVUkdV48FT
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky start dating Aella at some point in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-03T08:16:28
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T17:11:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gsoR7bjbPKN0W0dugrVz
|
Will the "Possible Meissner effect near room temperature" paper by Hongyang Wang be replicated before the end of 2024?
|
Here we go again https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999
|
2024-01-03T08:09:09
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-05T16:08:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KqFhckN3PBuJE7tZcbaf
|
Will the Meissner effect be confirmed near room temperature in copper-substituted lead apatite?
|
This question is based on a study suggesting the potential presence of the Meissner effect in copper-substituted lead apatite near room temperature. The market will resolve to 'Yes' if firm, peer-reviewed evidence or independent/laboratory verification confirming this is published by December 31, 2024.
https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999
https://twitter.com/mattparlmer/status/1742566608554627227
|
2024-01-03T08:02:31
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:28:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O5B6CmBZo4OtGOV4s87t
|
Will any person be held in jail by end of March 2024 for violation of Texas SB4 and refusing to return to Mexico?
|
https://www.texastribune.org/2023/12/28/federal-lawsuit-texas-immigration-law/
"The new law makes crossing the Texas-Mexico border between ports of entry a Class B misdemeanor. If a migrant agrees to return to Mexico, a judge can drop the charges. Otherwise, a suspected offender faces a potential six-month jail sentence — with longer sentences for repeat offenders.
Abbott signed the law Dec. 18 and it’s slated to take effect March 5."
Resolution will be based on information in publicly available media reporting by market close.
|
2024-01-03T05:56:02
|
2024-03-31T21:59:00
|
2024-04-01T04:02:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PE6NMuh4ixvb4rzjWAek
|
Will any open-source model rank higher than GPT-4 on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (according to ELO Rating)
|
I saw a question titled "GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?" and liked it. Still, I wanted another one with more objective and straightforward resolution criteria.
We use a loose definition of open-source that encompasses all previous versions of llama. In essence if it is theoretically possible for anyone to download the weights and run the model then it is considered opensource.
This market resolves yes if any open-source model achieves an ELO rating that ranks it higher than GPT-4 on ChatBot Arena at any point in 2024. New versions of GPT-4 do not count. The comparison will be done to the earliest GPT-4 version
FAQ
What is ChatBot Arena?
ChatBot Arena is a benchmark platform for large language models (LLMs) that ranks AI models based on their performance. It uses the Elo rating system, widely adopted in competitive games and sports, to calculate the relative skill levels of AI models. This rating system is particularly effective for pairwise comparisons between models. In ChatBot Arena, users can interact with two anonymous AI models, compare their responses side-by-side, and vote for the one they find better. This crowdsourced approach contributes to the Elo rating of each model.
|
2024-01-03T03:18:36
|
2024-04-09T12:24:16
|
2024-04-09T12:24:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NIPc9b7LUbMLJppXz1SF
|
Will Destiny talk to Cenk Uygur during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-03T03:01:12
|
2024-01-31T13:38:54
|
2024-01-31T13:38:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4RNx4B6nPrmLqibBRoaF
|
Will Alex Jones dunk on Destiny's romantic/sex life during 2024?
|
It doesn't have to be while talking to Destiny, as long as it's publicly streamed or posted. Twitter counts.
It has to be a joke, harsh criticism, or pivot to count as a dunk. If I judge that Alex Jones only commented on it because it was on topic AND seemed to be trying to be as respectful as possible, it doesn't count.
|
2024-01-03T01:54:22
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:51:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6Y3K2Upp2vQ0g4BwZPba
|
Will Usher perform his magnum opus Yeah! at the Super Bowl? 👨🎤🏈🏟️
|
Peace up, A-town down
For this to Resolve YES, Usher must sing / rap one line of the song for this to count. The line must be from a Verse, not just saying “Yeah” a few times, or walking out to the instrumental (see qualifying lines below), and must be with some form of the original music (even if remixed or sung acapella by Usher).
It doesn’t matter if it’s his part (or Lil Jon or Ludacris’ part), any part of a verse will count here.
Qualifying Yeah! verse lyrics (full lyrics):
Up in the club with my homies
Tryna get a little V-I, keep it down on the low-key (Low-key)
'Cause you know how it is (Hey)
I seen shorty, she was checkin' up on me
From the game she was spittin' in my ear
You would think that she know me (Know me)
I decided to chill (Okay)
Conversation got heavy (Hey)
She had me feelin' like she's ready to blow, oh (Watch out, watch out)
She was sayin', "Come get me" (Come get me)
So I got up and followed her to the floor
She said, "Baby, let's go" (Let's go)
When I told her, I said
So she's all up in my head now
Got me thinkin' that it might be a good idea to take her with me (With me)
'Cause she's ready to leave (Ready to leave now; oh, let's go)
Now I gotta keep it real now (Yeah)
'Cause on a one-to-ten, she's a certified twenty
But that just ain't me (Hey)
'Cause I don't know if I take that chance just where's it gonna lead?
But what I do know is the way she dance, make shorty alright with me
The way she get low, I'm like, "Yeah, just work that out for me"
She asked for one more dance, and I'm like, "Yeah, how the hell am I supposed to leave?" (Let's go, bring the beat back)
And I said
Watch out, my outfit's ridiculous
In the club, lookin' so conspicuous
And raow, these women all on the prowl
If you hold the head steady, I'ma milk the cow (Yeah)
And forget about game, I'ma spit the truth (What)
I won't stop 'til I get 'em in their birthday suit (Yeah)
So gimme the rhythm and it'll be off with their clothes
Then bend over to the front and touch your toes
I left the Jag and I took the Rolls
If they ain't cuttin', then I put 'em on foot patrol (Let's go, ow)
How you like me now?
When my pinky's valued over three hundred thousand
Let's drink, you the one to please (Yeah)
Ludacris fill cups like double Ds (Yeah)
Me and Ursh once more and we leaves 'em dead
We want a lady in the street, but a freak in the bed, that say
|
2024-01-03T01:16:53
|
2024-02-11T17:35:17
|
2024-02-11T17:35:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M70mtdWPEXN5pe1653wS
|
Will Haifa be successfully attacked by rockets, missiles, mortars, air bombs, or kamikaze drones before the end of 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if it becomes publicly known that at least one enemy rocket, mortar shell, missile, air bomb, or kamikaze drone reached Haifa and caused some damage between the market start and the end of 2024.
Author betting policy.
I will not bet on this market.
Previous market (2023): https://manifold.markets/AVS/will-haifa-be-successfully-attacked
|
2024-01-03T00:24:41
|
2024-10-06T22:24:32
|
2024-10-06T22:24:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q28DpnALgUHvDb7Vhm7k
|
Will any AI image model be able to generate correct images of a Colemak keyboard, by the end of 2024?
|
(harder version of @/firstuserhere/will-any-ai-image-model-generate-co ?)
Must be to a single prompt, not an iterative prompting process or a conversation.
Must work for at least 10% of images generated.
As long as it can generate the A-Z keys in the correct order, an image will count as correct. Other keys are irrelevant.
The prompt must not tell the model the correct layout.
This is a Colemak keyboard layout, for reference:
[image]
|
2024-01-02T23:33:51
|
2024-12-31T23:00:00
|
2025-01-01T12:18:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HfT8FHHFiTx4ULLxl2Wa
|
Will Destiny talk to Alex Stein during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-02T23:31:57
|
2024-04-28T00:20:37
|
2024-04-28T00:20:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hihUHymT542WIhGORzhU
|
Will Bitcoin reach $50,000 by 2/1/2024?
|
Must hit 50k usd by midnight on 2/1 to resolve yes
|
2024-01-02T21:53:40
|
2024-02-01T17:34:24
|
2024-02-01T17:34:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fQ5mYrr8yYoexD3oCWYo
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Far-right Freedom Party will be largest in Austrian Parliament
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 70% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T21:30:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:11:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a9UgSxMWorlxslhtudca
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Unemployment rate stays below 4%
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 80% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:41:13
|
2024-08-16T16:40:43
|
2024-08-16T16:40:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-donevFJ5mLo8IB48Uoa7
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Last CPI print of the year shows annual inflation above 2%
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 80% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:38:10
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:13:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j2XVzk5juSBGCzMK5GkS
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed does not cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 70% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:36:08
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-26T20:28:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gzUOKzhhIchQkK7vPkx3
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least 75 basis points
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 70% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:35:35
|
2024-11-29T00:23:05
|
2024-11-29T00:23:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3Eu2EULeucc99X2lOxAZ
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Fed cuts interest rates at least fifty basis points
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 90% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:34:51
|
2024-09-19T13:12:12
|
2024-09-19T13:12:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9R2oENzjvhIrvhXc1xRf
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Net electoral college bias continues to favor the GOP
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity, the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 60% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:33:26
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:09:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tzhYZYG0gc7AQsEkBc5g
|
Matthew Yglesias 2024 predictions: Josh Stein elected governor of North Carolina
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nMatt predicts 60% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:20:38
|
2024-11-08T08:16:51
|
2024-11-08T08:16:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d1awTXBJeOwR7EMXAurm
|
Matt Yglesias 2024 predictions: Will Democrats lose at least one senate seat outside of WV/MT/OH?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions\n\nThis is a prediction from Matthew Yglesias's 2024 predictions. I will be resolving early when possible but in cases of ambiguity the ultimate source of truth is Matt's evaluation.\n\nFor this market, to make things clearer, I will include King (I-ME) as a Democrat. This will hold even if Matt judges differently\n\nMatt predicts 60% for this question\n\nMatt's calibration for reference:\n\n[image]"
|
2024-01-02T20:17:59
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-26T12:12:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TQvZS2DZZZJ6GX2febdw
|
Will another two big planes collide in 2024?
|
Definitions
a big plane means a powered fixed-wing aircraft with wingspan greater or equals to 20m (around 65.6ft) that has been airborne within 365 days prior to the collision. Things that are included under the physical requirements: Bombardier Global 5000, any Boeing 737. Things that are not included under the physical requirements: a glider, a helicopter, Cessna Citation V, Cessna 172 Skyhawk. A part of the plane that is detached at the time to collision does not count. (e.g. a wheel that detaches from a plane and collide with another plane does not count)
two [objects] collide means physical contact between multiple objects.
will means happening after 2024-01-03T03:00:00Z
in 2024 means when the collision takes place, the local time is in the year 2024.
another is to exclude events in 2024 before this question's creation.
|
2024-01-02T19:08:12
|
2024-01-16T09:15:51
|
2024-01-16T09:15:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Xn3AMVmwa44vN3JczfVL
|
Will Joe Biden and Donald Trump meet face to face during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T18:53:52
|
2024-07-05T11:25:45
|
2024-07-05T11:25:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qnGTV0Z62JRAM5QfsMJg
|
Will Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin meet face to face during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T18:52:55
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:01:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NSc7PKycLcpDTjmGhxnc
|
Will Jimmy Kimmel sue Aaron Rodgers?
|
Before end of January
|
2024-01-02T18:13:43
|
2024-01-31T18:50:46
|
2024-01-31T18:50:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pyKzggPwGYgdG18dCQpG
|
Will any NFL player, coach or owner be on the Epstein list?
|
NFL player, coach, owner, ref, etc.
|
2024-01-02T17:58:40
|
2024-01-31T19:18:08
|
2024-01-31T19:18:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ra74dt5IZd78Gmi67vxN
|
Will Vaush reach 472k subs on his main channel by the end of January 2024?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/vaush_
|
2024-01-02T17:51:20
|
2024-02-01T00:00:00
|
2024-02-01T00:02:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RdMpw4W3G030cLTzGcca
|
Will Mitch McConnell stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2025?
|
Mitch McConnell is an octogenarian and is the longest-serving Senate Party Leader of all time, having been the Senate Republican Leader since 2007.
Will McConnell resign, die, be ousted by his caucus, or for any other reason stop being Senate Republican Leader before the end of 2025?
See same question but for:
20 Jan 2025
before end of 2026
before end of 2027
before end of 2028
before 2030
|
2024-01-02T16:55:26
|
2024-11-13T12:12:21
|
2024-11-13T12:12:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DNYpsKMS0ntypg7OtZR8
|
Will Joe Biden suffer a major health event before the 2024 election?
|
This market will resolve on or before the date of the 2024 US presidential election. "Major health event" is defined as an event with a high likelihood of causing significant or permanent disability, such as a stroke, heart attack, traumatic fall, severe motor vehicle accident, non-routine hospitalization, or discovery of a terminal illness, reported in mainstream news media.
|
2024-01-02T16:34:03
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-09T12:40:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sq7jr6OoMkSD0aIhQaok
|
Will Destiny talk to Aella during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-02T16:28:06
|
2024-07-13T16:01:30
|
2024-07-13T16:01:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EPolFzdojE4u8xfeD4de
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if the S&P 500 index (.INX) closing price on 2024-12-31 is higher than 4,769.83, its close on 2023-12-29.
From https://www.slowboring.com/p/my-2024-predictions
S&P 500 is up for the year (80%)
|
2024-01-02T16:09:21
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:23:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oAG9D7TwEmoAhnNv9tvR
|
Will Jim Harbaugh still be the head coach of the Michigan Wolverines on February 1, 2024?
|
An official retirement statement or new team welcoming statement/press conference (before Feb 1) will resolve to NO
|
2024-01-02T15:40:54
|
2024-01-24T17:18:19
|
2024-01-24T17:18:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-y2FtfvtCKPvUxawcUSoc
|
Will Ursula von der Leyen secure a second term as European Commission president?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T13:07:13
|
2024-07-18T07:42:56
|
2024-07-18T07:42:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YUkqI0EPhMoxjferJU2d
|
By 2025, will most well-educated people expect AI to within 10 years be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans?
|
Prediction is from James Miller: https://twitter.com/JimDMiller/status/1741989384881058050
James Miller: Prediction for 2024: Most well-educated people will think that within 10 years AI is going to be better at intellectual work than 99% of humans, and this expectation will have profound effects including reducing the importance parents put on their kids doing well in school.
This resolves to YES if a majority of college educated people would answer this way on a survey, or we would reasonably expect them to do so.
Resolves to NO otherwise.
If the answer is sufficiently unclear and market price reflects this, market will be resolved via a poll asking whether the worded claim is true.
|
2024-01-02T13:03:02
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T04:47:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CY9qQqWSZWD5B0W5fCnt
|
Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis by Dec 31 2024?
|
On Oct 24, 2023 the California DMV announced they had suspended Cruise’s driverless taxis in all cities, citing safety concerns (see reporting).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cruise relaunches its driverless taxi operations anywhere by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A “relaunch” requires Cruise to resume driverless operations in a city, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations.
The resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DavidFWatson/will-cruise-relaunch-driverless-tax-eb23f0bafffd)
|
2024-01-02T12:52:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:38:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9NAMnVoyPO3RduAe7Jxa
|
In the Destiny v Ben Shapiro debate, will Destiny speak faster than Ben Shapiro?
|
The intent of this question is to determine over the duration of the whole debate, who will say a higher number of words per unit time that they are speaking.
I will wait for reddit user /u/shoehorn_staple to post a post-game analysis of debate, and compare WPM of the debaters. If no post-game analysis is posted, I will resort to the test described in strike-through below
This would be quite painful to calculate, so I will be using the following test while being open to changing it to come closer to the intent of the question.
When the full debate video is out (presumably on Lex Fridman's youtube channel) I will do the following once for Destiny, then once for Ben Shapiro:
Use a random number generator to generate 10 random timestamps in the video
Seek to each random timestamp
For each timestamp, find the first segment after the timestamp where the debater in question speaks for at least 10 seconds uninterrupted. If no such segment exists after the timestamp, the timestamp will be regenerated. The segment starts when the debater starts talking, and end when they stop or are interrupted.
For these segments, I will calculate the total number of words said over all 10 segments, then divide by the total time of all segments. This will be the debater's speaking speed.
Resolves to YES if Destiny's speaking speed, as calculated above, is higher then Ben Shapiro's.
Resolves NO if Ben Shapiro's is higher.
The closing date of this market will be extended until the debate occurs and is available to watch, until a maximum date of EOY 2024, at which point this will resolve N/A.
|
2024-01-02T12:50:35
|
2024-01-31T21:59:00
|
2024-02-01T09:26:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a3k1RgxAVYiAU1qeA5Su
|
January 2024: Will Bitcoin hit $50,000?
|
If in January 2024 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $50,000 or more, this will resolve YES.
In the case of uncertainty, the 7-day high price will be used.
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2024-01-02T11:53:14
|
2024-02-01T14:59:00
|
2024-02-02T00:01:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Iv8Lz19nSKDDaZyC9BNM
|
Will Justin Fields be on the Atlanta Falcons by September 1, 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Fields is on the Falcons at any point on or before September 1, 2024.
|
2024-01-02T11:48:51
|
2024-09-02T20:59:00
|
2024-09-02T21:13:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zBKNCEwNeMOUixsDDAxX
|
Will Greg Brockman's bullish optimism on AI in 2024 prove true?
|
Greg Brockman (President OpenAI): Prediction: 2024 will feel like a breakthrough year in terms of AI capability, safety, and general positivity about its potential impact. In the longer term, it'll look like just one more year on an exponential that can make everyone's lives better than anyone's today.
This resolves to YES is if, on 1 Jan 2025, this statement is generally believed to be true.
It resolves to NO if this statement proves is generally believed to be false.
If there is no market consensus and I am not confident in the winner, I will settle it via Twitter poll or other similar mechanism.
|
2024-01-02T10:41:43
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:37:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0vq047wblrejxuBCnBtD
|
Will Hezbollah launch a missile at Tel Aviv in 2024?
|
Will resolve to YES if a missile is launched by Hezbollah targeting Tel Aviv, irrespective of whether it is intercepted or succeeds in hitting its target.
I will consult statements by Hezbollah, as well as major newspapers (NYT, WSJ, etc.) before making a decision to resolve.
|
2024-01-02T09:57:38
|
2024-09-25T06:22:01
|
2024-09-25T06:22:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-13wTOt2Q1PDahqS5Jrjn
|
Will Abrams tanks be deployed in combat in Ukraine by the end of February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T09:44:58
|
2024-02-25T15:13:13
|
2024-02-25T15:13:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fN9CmhxhWVoe7nEnr2Oj
|
Will Julian Assange be extradited to the United States by January 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T09:35:06
|
2024-12-31T04:30:58
|
2024-12-31T04:30:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Psd76f7Y4bVFJNIvjayC
|
Will Kim Jong-Un still be Supreme Leader of North Korea by the end of 2024?
|
If Kim Jong-Un still holds the position of Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes". For the sake of this market, we'll consider Kim Jon-Un no longer as Supreme Leader of North Korea under at least two circumstances: 1) If the government of North Korea officially declares he is no longer Chairman of the State Affair Commission (SAC), or 2) if any person or military group is officially recognized by the country's army as their commander in chief, with more authority than Kim.
|
2024-01-02T09:34:04
|
2024-12-30T20:51:54
|
2024-12-30T20:51:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GF2rBYx1XXzfyldE4dlK
|
Will Google develop a cryptocurrency by the end of 2024?
|
If Google develops and announces the launch of a cryptoasset / cryptocurrency by December 31, 2024, this market will be resolved as “Yes”.
|
2024-01-02T09:32:51
|
2024-12-30T20:50:06
|
2024-12-30T20:50:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YStGQg972jxBze1VQCY8
|
Will Twitter accept Dogecoin (DOGE) as a method of payment before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T09:32:25
|
2024-12-30T20:50:14
|
2024-12-30T20:50:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1RzZHHQCpTHPaxBLbFdp
|
Will "Madame Web" (2024) have >50% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes 2 weeks after release?
|
"Madame Web" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/madame_web
I will use the "Tomatometer" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 51% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 50% or below, this market resolves NO.
For reference, the previous three films in "Sony's Spider-Man Universe" and their RT critics scores: Venom (30%), Venom: Let There Be Carnage (57%), & Morbius (15%). This shows which number I will use.
After 2 weeks post-release (listed release date = Feb 14, so I'll use Feb 28), I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of February 28th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise exactly when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the "RT score as of a specific time", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on "the score I see when I check RT on that day").
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image]
|
2024-01-02T09:06:11
|
2024-02-18T17:09:00
|
2024-02-18T17:09:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q1tMmpxTqKbRk22OXVOz
|
Will Texas experience blackouts this Winter?
|
Market will resolve yes if: multiple cities in Texas experience rolling or large scale blackouts due to widespread power generation or distribution failures due to grid strains. as reported by major news organizations. Needs to be major national headline news searching google news for Texas blackout from a non-local news source.
|
2024-01-02T08:57:21
|
2024-03-19T07:12:42
|
2024-03-19T07:12:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oNWvoOwKodHVryILbumw
|
will trump win us election in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T08:48:59
|
2024-11-19T20:13:13
|
2024-11-19T20:13:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7BdQumCNfU4VxXUfn2dp
|
2024: Will there be more than 20,000 Objects Launched into Outer Space?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if according to the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (UNOOSA), there are more than 20,000 objects launched into outer space before the end of 2024.
https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/osoindex/search-ng.jspx?lf_id=
[image]
|
2024-01-02T08:45:01
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-07T06:48:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5nLDlbShcM7R8q70m96
|
Will Novak Djokovic win at least 2 grand slams in 2024?
|
Market will close at the end of the US Open unless Novak has not won any grand slams by the end Wimbledon in which case the market will be resolved by the end of Wimbledon.
|
2024-01-02T08:34:01
|
2024-08-12T20:39:43
|
2024-08-12T20:39:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3e1qWANFn5B9gPOvSVnL
|
[Kalshi] Will the CDC identify a new COVID variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
|
Will the CDC identify a new variant of concern by December 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the CDC has identified a new variant of concern between Issuance and December 31, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-02T08:22:05
|
2025-01-02T07:00:00
|
2025-01-02T10:29:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QBsbITctrOcsSchxNzPP
|
Will Apple’s Siri will be replaced by, or upgraded to, an assistant that runs on a LLM by July 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T08:17:38
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-06T22:41:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d90f0ubkJDYAnh97hguJ
|
Will Destiny Start a Game of League Of Legends On Stream In 2024
|
Must be on stream, just has to queue up and start playing to resolve YES
|
2024-01-02T07:51:58
|
2024-12-31T07:50:00
|
2025-01-22T13:17:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FDmUg5MoniVce87fLxIG
|
NCAAF: Will the Washington Huskies win the CFP National Championship?
|
#2 Washington (14-0) faces #1 Michigan (14-0) in Houston, Texas on Jan. 8.
|
2024-01-02T07:00:29
|
2024-01-08T20:29:17
|
2024-01-08T20:29:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dc7fjmOcxZDMmiYo25MZ
|
Will Bitcoin reach a new all time high in USD in 2024?
|
Will the value of Bitcoin in USD reach a new all time high in 2024?
For this to resolve yes, the price must go over $69,010
Otherwise no
|
2024-01-02T06:56:00
|
2024-03-05T07:29:59
|
2024-03-05T07:29:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8WvobuEpJHRMvpCzcPK0
|
Will June 2024 be the hottest June on record?
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report. Usually gets released in the middle of the following month
June 9 edit: extended close date, will close when the report is released.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2024-01-02T06:47:25
|
2024-07-12T08:20:03
|
2024-07-12T08:20:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xFbaZ7Ggnd6A8C3pGHsF
|
Will Trump win his appeal to return to the Colorado primary voting ballot?
|
After the Colorado Supreme Court's December 19 decision to make Trump ineligible to appear on this state's presidential primary ballot under Section 3 of Amendment 14 of the U.S. Constitution, will the Colorado Republican Party win the appeal to return him to the voting ballot before the January 5th ballot certification?
This will resolve to YES if: Trump wins the appeal to return to the voting ballot; The Supreme Court does nothing and Trump stays on the ballot; The Supreme Court says it will consider the case (his name will remain on the ballot until it does)
This will resolve to NO if: The Supreme Court rejects Trump's appeal; The Supreme Court refrains from taking on the case.
|
2024-01-02T06:40:38
|
2024-01-05T14:59:00
|
2024-01-05T16:10:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AY0eJL9NzzKoirOzIFsZ
|
Will George Soros live through 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T06:22:25
|
2024-12-30T21:17:04
|
2024-12-30T21:17:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MxAshbSCOqBmTQssTp1b
|
Will Tesla Vehicle production Q1 2024 exceed 500,000?
|
Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends
last six quarters:
Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923
Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701
Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808
Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700
Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 430488
Q4 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter-2023 494,989
The equivalent press release for Q1 2024 will be used but if not available may wait for financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.
Background (Was getting too long so shorter form points):
Texas and Berlin factories still ramping up 3/Y production
Cybertruck production started at Texas
Price cuts during 2023. To stimulate demand presumably.
The latest official guidance which they reached just was:
"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."
Some Q3 production shutdowns were mentioned at Q2 earnings call and did happen but was there also throttling of production rate?
|
2024-01-02T06:22:02
|
2024-04-02T07:39:32
|
2024-04-02T07:39:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2e8SWvSP6BvurZX4zQx
|
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 3% or higher?
|
Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 3% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview]
|
2024-01-02T06:04:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:35:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pB66sDkmgwXF5SQrZ27O
|
Will Destiny bring Ben Shapiro on his podcast in 2024?
|
Their battle shall be legendary.
|
2024-01-02T05:37:20
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-08T22:36:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7nEtOVEjal7QY0ETNRpO
|
Will Ron Desantis visit Kyiv during 2024?
|
Zelenskyy has extended an invite...
|
2024-01-02T04:44:55
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:03:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-osUbBVnJMkzoC5ozgEez
|
Will Putin visit Turkey during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:39:32
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T01:31:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hOEB0IRsXmhTlPRwgzXe
|
Will Argentina significantly escalate disputes with the UK over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:36:47
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T22:26:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vFrJ18r8BbLR1qbxdCKe
|
Will Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift get engaged by the end of 2024?
|
Will Travis put a ring on it?
|
2024-01-02T04:35:57
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:06:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QrE0XPIJ6Q3h4SaASIct
|
Will the government of any country be dissolved or overthrown before April 1st?
|
The question will be considered resolved positively if there is a significant and involuntary change in the government of a country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before April 1st Examples of such changes may include a military coup, political impeachment, a popular uprising, or a foreign invasion that results in the overthrow or dissolution of the government.
The question will also be considered resolved positively if a sitting prime minister or president dissolves the government and calls for new elections due to internal political upheaval or other unforeseen circumstances, as confirmed by credible sources such as news organizations or official government statements, before April 1st.
The question will be considered resolved negatively if there is no significant and involuntary change in the government of any country due to internal political upheaval, external military intervention, or other unforeseen circumstances before April 1. If there are minor changes, such as a reshuffle of cabinet members or a change in prime minister or president that does not result in a significant change in government policy or structure, the question will still be considered resolved negatively.
|
2024-01-02T04:33:53
|
2024-03-14T09:52:10
|
2024-03-14T09:52:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FbHmo9Yx4akLX8CG6oKx
|
Will Biden visit Israel by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:31:44
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:23:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yRDVk53ai2Io2H1YEafO
|
Will Joe Biden visit Saudi Arabia by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:30:16
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:25:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NFXK14DZwOv5mBZNHpTN
|
Will FTX sell their Anthropic stake by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:28:35
|
2024-10-30T12:31:36
|
2024-10-30T12:31:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nxsEobvfOHnWiUFnxnyk
|
Will China convene and mediate peace negotiations between representatives of Ukraine and Russia by the end of 2024?
|
Xi Jinping has apparently attempted to offer a political settlement to the hostilities in Ukraine. This on the heels of secretly brokering normalization of relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Clearly Xi is getting ambitious globally, but does he have what it takes to broker a peace deal between Putin and Zelenskyy?
Resolves YES if China convenes representatives of Russia and Ukraine and exclusively mediates peace talks between the parties. Does not matter where it happens or the outcome, just that all three parties are acknowledged participants in active negotiations and no other parties like NATO, the US or EU also participate as mediators.
|
2024-01-02T04:26:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:07:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6oRkZq2xhUvgymri9KXB
|
Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas at any point during 2024?
|
Could happen after the end of official hurricane season and still count.
|
2024-01-02T04:22:53
|
2024-07-08T13:07:29
|
2024-07-08T13:07:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s83LmubUHhNxSIQm6g5I
|
Will Putin and Erdogan meet in person by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:21:00
|
2024-10-25T12:11:03
|
2024-10-25T12:11:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uAveBPeitY64xz12QR8k
|
Will Trump’s Fulton County trial start before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:19:26
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:38:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-35tTsZOxrje9ajL6DZg6
|
Will Nikki Haley visit Israel by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T04:17:12
|
2024-05-27T08:33:54
|
2024-05-27T08:33:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cyfwFNN1BEBPZGC0nNSl
|
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T03:56:33
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:08:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PYIXzwqOTy80Hatz6tX5
|
Will the UK enter a recession during 2024?
|
Resolution criteria is whether the start of a recession as declared by the ONS will have occurred during 2024. We will wait until Q4 data has been released by the ONS so this will not resolve until early in 2025.
|
2024-01-02T02:27:41
|
2025-03-01T15:59:00
|
2025-03-06T22:34:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hKB9iD8knG4R2RuSyyCu
|
Will Bitcoin hit $100K in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-02T00:16:39
|
2024-12-04T19:40:46
|
2024-12-04T19:40:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gYiRKvtRD3ElWLZRGj7x
|
Will Mohammed Deif, military commander of Hamas, survive 2024?
|
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohammed_Deif)
|
2024-01-02T00:13:02
|
2025-01-30T14:38:41
|
2025-01-30T14:38:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7S4ZLNY83IjRW0myKYlr
|
Will Yahya Sinwar, founder of Hamas, survive 2024?
|
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yahya_Sinwar)
|
2024-01-02T00:10:04
|
2024-10-17T11:04:18
|
2024-10-17T11:04:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VHqWEXUwhL2FuKyork2v
|
Will there be at least one New York Times article on AI every week in 2024?
|
Resolves No if there's any week where the New York Times does not publish an article about Artificial intelligence, based on the article datelines published online. I will not bet on this market. Excludes the last semi-week of the year for fairness' sake.
Question inspired by
(https://manifold.markets/embed/EleniAngelou/will-there-be-at-least-one-new-york)
|
2024-01-02T00:03:25
|
2024-12-28T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T13:58:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ysXd6ctFxQpAMyCJW92x
|
Will a new interstellar object be observed inside the solar system in 2024 ?
|
So far two interstellar objects have been observed inside the solar system, 1I/'Oumuamua in 2017 and 2I/Borisov in 2019.
Will a new object designated with an I number be observed during 2024 ?
If the object is observed in 2024 but only receives the I designation at a later date, this will resolve YES. The market will remain open for a few months in 2025 for this reason, especially if there are likely candidates.
Interstellar Meteors (designated by IM) do not count for this market.
|
2024-01-01T22:33:33
|
2025-02-28T04:59:00
|
2025-02-28T05:32:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mc8cHebmxLvtzNsmYO4T
|
What percentage of 2024 will be left when OpenAI releases GPT-5?
|
This resolves to the percentage of the year left when OpenAI releases GPT-5. For example, if it is released on the 6th of May, 220 days wil remain out of 366, so this would resolve to (220/366) = 60%.
If it is not released in 2024, this resolves to 0%.
|
2024-01-01T21:42:34
|
2025-01-01T03:54:14
|
2025-01-01T03:54:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1Y6I74J6bjJHIjwnk37A
|
Will Bitcoin hit 35K in Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T21:39:30
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-01T23:30:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ns7T3KawicIm2upjTAn
|
Will Michigan beat Washington in the CFP National Championship?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T21:26:41
|
2024-01-08T20:11:39
|
2024-01-08T20:11:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V1uxyTQPwclv00a8OLE4
|
Will Donald Trump be kicked off the ballot in more states before the election?
|
This does not include Maine and Colorado as they have already kicked him off by the time of writing this.
It will be resolved if another state does kick him off the ballot or if no one does so by the election time.
|
2024-01-01T21:16:27
|
2024-03-04T21:28:46
|
2024-03-04T21:28:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YVJBWpg6Zaq84lhVcjaf
|
Will Mickey Mouse appear unlicensed in a feature film this year?
|
Steamboat Willie, the first cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse, entered the public domain on January 1 this year. Will there be any movie that meets all of the following criteria?
1 - US theatrical release in 2024
2 - not created by Disney or any affiliated company
3 - has Mickey Mouse in it, including a clip of Steamboat Willie or any other use of the character
4 - would not meet the "fair use" standard, e.g. a scholarly work criticizing Mickey Mouse
5 - nobody says it's licensed
Will resolve early if this happens, though you might have to tell me. I'll look around at close to see if I can find any evidence this happened, and if not then resolve NO.
|
2024-01-01T21:03:01
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:50:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4hxmL189cp0hUxKADVRA
|
Will NASA's Parker Solar Probe exceed 430,000 mph before 2025?
|
[image]Resolution Criteria:
Market resolves YES if the Parker Solar Probe records a top speed greater than 430,000 miles per hour in 2024
Market resolves NO if the Parker Solar Probe records a top speed less than 430,000 miles per hour in 2024
Market resolves NO if the Parker Solar Probe records a top speed equal to 430,000 miles per hour in 2024
Market resolves NO if the Parker Solar Probe is destroyed or speed cannot be measured accurately
Market will resolve according to: https://parkersolarprobe.jhuapl.edu/
This section:
[image]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parker_Solar_Probe
"The Parker Solar Probe (PSP; previously Solar Probe, Solar Probe Plus or Solar Probe+) is a NASA space probe launched in 2018 with the mission of making observations of the outer corona of the Sun."
"It will approach to within 9.86 solar radii (6.9 million km or 4.3 million miles) from the center of the Sun, and by 2025 will travel, at closest approach, as fast as 690,000 km/h (430,000 mph) or 191 km/s, which is 0.064% the speed of light."
"It is the fastest object ever built."
https://www.popsci.com/technology/parker-solar-probe-speed-record/
"Despite its punishing journey, NASA reports the Parker Solar Probe remains in good health with “all systems operating normally.” Despite its numerous records, the probe is far from finished with its mission; there are still seven more solar pass-bys scheduled through 2024. At that point (well within Mercury’s orbit), the Parker Solar Probe will finally succumb to the sun’s extreme effects and vaporize into the solar winds— “sort of a poetic ending,”"
https://blogs.nasa.gov/parkersolarprobe/2023/09/28/for-the-record-parker-solar-probe-sets-distance-speed-marks-on-17th-swing-by-the-sun/
September 28, 2023
"NASA’s Parker Solar Probe completed its 17th close approach to the Sun on Sept. 27, 2023, breaking its own distance record by skimming just 4.51 million miles (7.26 million kilometers) from the solar surface."
"Set up by a gravity-assist flyby of Venus on Aug. 21, the close approach (known as perihelion) occurred at 7:28 p.m. EDT, with Parker Solar Probe moving 394,736 miles per hour (635,266 kilometers per hour) around the Sun – another record."
"The milestone also marked the midway point in the mission’s 17th solar encounter, which began Sept. 22 and continues through Oct. 3."
https://www.space.com/nasa-parker-solar-probe-fastest-man-made-object-breaks-record
|
2024-01-01T20:57:53
|
2025-01-08T16:41:18
|
2025-01-08T16:41:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KhYSBd9V84stshwMUeKU
|
Will the reforms of the new president of Argentina(Milei) be good for the country's economy by 2024
|
I will resolve this as a "Yes" if their GDP goes up from 2023 until 2024.
|
2024-01-01T20:54:39
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-07T20:57:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-seflCzKmSlkKUTA2iyG8
|
Will Ethereum trade above $20k at any point in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T20:26:57
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T02:15:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aBj6QSJmNkUyQvwAlAK8
|
[Short Fuse] Russian strategic bombers are heading towards launch locations. Will there be a major attack on Ukraine?
|
It is being widely reported by open source intelligence sources, and the Ukrainian government, that more than 20 Russian strategic bombers have been departed from the West of the country, and are approaching known launch zones over the Caspian Sea.
This market will resolve YES if, in conjunction with these strategic bombers, there is a large scale attack on Ukraine in the next few hours. Large scale in the context of missile attacks will be defined by attacks that are significantly beyond the scope of normal Russian attacks on Ukraine. This will require more than just a few missiles being intercepted or hitting their targets, and will require more than one city being targeted. The attacks should be comparable to the types of attacks listed at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_strikes_against_Ukrainian_infrastructure_(2022%E2%80%93present), especially https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/29_December_2023_Russian_strikes_on_Ukraine. Since this is somewhat subjective, I won't bet on this market.
Sources:
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742012878767468903
https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1742020524287418718
https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1742026571597099470
|
2024-01-01T19:48:11
|
2024-01-02T10:32:14
|
2024-01-02T10:32:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jesEMZz4g82BI2pWPATN
|
Will the horse that wins the Kentucky Derby 2024 have a two-word name?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T19:30:19
|
2024-05-04T16:10:55
|
2024-05-04T16:10:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-244J1LtpKNoi4Bf9V08G
|
Will Bitcoin be higher at end of 2024 than beginning of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T18:51:10
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-02-16T17:45:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zX320t6B0TMjCa9GPzze
|
Will Neuralink implant a device into a human’s brain by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if a Neuralink device is implanted into a human brain via a clinical trial study (as they advertised).
To ensure source legitimacy and the market’s integrity, it will RESOLVE YES when an official announcement of the Neuralink human implantation is published on a legitimate channel like a company announcement or clinical trials reference result (which should not be a problem if the milestone was achieved and will be out shortly like their previous announcements, with the last one being in September 2023). With the main example of Neuralink previously publishing an announcement on their first person to play pong. An Elon Musk tweet does not count as an official source.
|
2024-01-01T18:04:53
|
2024-03-20T16:11:47
|
2024-03-20T16:11:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-67uitZc3c4mWeBHZ1rVw
|
Will Destiny talk to Nick Fuentes in 2024?
|
Talk = voice conversation that is publicly available. So, public stream or a private recording that is publicly released with proof that it occurred in 2024.
|
2024-01-01T18:04:27
|
2024-05-05T20:57:39
|
2024-05-05T20:57:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6WJTvEvWi5VuQBDZselL
|
Will Jean-Marie Le Pen die in 2024?
|
95 year old when this market was created on 1/1/2024
Born June 20th 1928
|
2024-01-01T17:22:53
|
2024-12-31T18:19:20
|
2024-12-31T18:19:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M8lbLWoSRB8gh68gPdzP
|
Will Valve release a game with a title containing the number "3" before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T15:42:24
|
2025-01-01T01:31:02
|
2025-01-01T01:31:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9tzpF6rh5PzYg4tMXdKp
|
Will bitcoin drop below 38k in 2024
|
At least one 30 minute candle under 38k on both coinbase and coin gecko.
|
2024-01-01T15:30:25
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:40:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yGPVycKaDqmCJUQ7t8Ww
|
Will an algorithm be able to write a full-length book indistinguisable from a human author before September 2024?
|
If there exists an algorithm that can write such a book, then this questions resolves to yes.
|
2024-01-01T15:10:54
|
2024-09-01T02:02:14
|
2024-09-01T02:02:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c6KOAHoJV4drd2klLt7p
|
Will a third party candidate qualify for at least one U.S. presidential debate in 2024?
|
Regardless of whether the debate is held or the candidate actually participates, will a candidate other than the official nominees of the Democrat and Republican parties be eligible to participate in at least one U.S. presidential debate in 2024, as determined by the Commission on Presidential Debates?
|
2024-01-01T14:15:14
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-26T16:17:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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