id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-YBdaUqbk7xFaGipO58gH | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 28, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 28, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:42:18 | 2024-03-28T15:21:58 | 2024-03-28T15:21:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-22Afs0BGWtpFCKDmzVDM | Will OpenAI release a model called GPT4.5 by end of day March 31, 2024? | Resolves yes if a model with a name including a substring of "4.5" is usable by general paying API customers by the end of March 31, 2024.
I will not bet in this market. | 2024-01-01T13:41:33 | 2024-04-01T22:04:32 | 2024-04-01T22:04:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Tz1FLVIqfl4k7RsZv3l | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:41:17 | 2024-03-27T20:59:49 | 2024-03-28T15:26:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-T2QQEtaFjOGMhQh5tNMw | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:40:16 | 2024-03-26T20:59:49 | 2024-03-27T06:11:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1p09EmwoCSfFhNgjVPIx | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:39:15 | 2024-03-25T20:59:49 | 2024-03-26T10:53:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ge1PQfLmqmuRLCmMkAlW | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:38:15 | 2024-03-22T13:13:03 | 2024-03-22T13:13:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JPMnwvGPWVI1XKC02pSK | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:36:13 | 2024-03-20T13:43:56 | 2024-03-20T13:43:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZVvhgVkHL5QO9JuTu3Ic | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:35:08 | 2024-03-19T20:31:26 | 2024-03-19T20:31:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hZMqaJm62yXB1xBbTEOZ | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:34:07 | 2024-03-18T16:05:31 | 2024-03-18T16:05:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XYJZJURAHPnVASFJpRJQ | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 15, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 15, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:33:07 | 2024-03-15T13:40:56 | 2024-03-15T13:40:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GLYYj41gK6RxYjnaTI9h | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 14, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 14, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:32:06 | 2024-03-14T17:21:13 | 2024-03-14T17:21:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vhnsUeNaemZxH6IsVhYB | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 13, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 13, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:31:05 | 2024-03-13T14:15:24 | 2024-03-13T14:15:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lmz3ZqRawkf8bMP1S10X | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:30:04 | 2024-03-12T20:59:49 | 2024-03-13T10:46:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LDFsRoQJmATQ34OitsVv | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:29:03 | 2024-03-11T13:42:43 | 2024-03-11T13:42:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t7KKY1bnDywVif7CkVRM | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:24:00 | 2024-03-04T20:31:51 | 2024-03-04T20:31:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-PqKX8pz8YmOi3nL6ZCiV | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 29, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 29, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:21:59 | 2024-02-29T13:50:31 | 2024-02-29T13:50:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6AK13AS0IQCIgnCWzSuc | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:19:58 | 2024-02-27T14:30:11 | 2024-02-27T14:30:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DRytUmKPwrytQFdHcn5m | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:16:56 | 2024-02-22T13:38:45 | 2024-02-22T13:38:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nqZnBxyznQEcPW1zBxv5 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 21, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 21, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:15:55 | 2024-02-21T13:06:35 | 2024-02-21T13:06:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yTw4cHrIjYYqydV7h4XG | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:14:54 | 2024-02-20T14:03:33 | 2024-02-20T14:03:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V0aadmYi8DAiTcktJmpF | Will Blue Origin buy ULA? | Ambiguity: If Blue Origin Has a partner in the buyout, this question resolves YES. | 2024-01-01T13:14:41 | 2025-01-31T22:59:00 | 2025-02-01T12:33:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7HfvpWL4rBXBh5bIFRtk | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:13:54 | 2024-02-16T13:59:10 | 2024-02-16T13:59:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LKFQuZhbcOhRgvP6vzG2 | Will Destiny become romantically involved in a serious relationship with another person by June 2024? | It is a serious relationship if Destiny talks about dating them or it leaks that they are dating conclusively. Hooking up/friends with benefits/etc. do not count as serious relationships. If you have proof of a partner, comment said proof in the comments of this question. The main point of this question will remain the... | 2024-01-01T13:10:09 | 2024-06-01T21:59:00 | 2024-06-04T14:57:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BtCa9aus87E78nPcYjM8 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 07, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 07, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:06:48 | 2024-02-07T13:03:04 | 2024-02-07T13:03:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ifrqRDr6vwuTt3rEgtAD | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 06, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 06, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T13:05:47 | 2024-02-06T14:21:59 | 2024-02-06T14:21:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6ru73uIU8X7l0j6hzcnk | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:57:43 | 2024-01-25T13:21:23 | 2024-01-25T13:21:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EDKpEfxd7AWcoLJvWNrp | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 23, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 23, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:55:42 | 2024-01-23T16:04:28 | 2024-01-23T16:04:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2qdrWHXr8N8btjhQ32N2 | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:53:41 | 2024-01-19T13:16:55 | 2024-01-19T13:16:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jX2ttQ01gbqxO4NS6CGl | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:52:40 | 2024-01-18T13:46:07 | 2024-01-18T13:46:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oXVXUMEchS8MnCks0C5M | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:49:36 | 2024-01-12T20:14:29 | 2024-01-12T20:14:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DYXslqlU7gi321EizlJf | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:48:36 | 2024-01-11T20:59:49 | 2024-01-11T21:12:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qvCmr0RCvPZPRZGVuIur | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 10, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 10, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:47:35 | 2024-01-10T20:59:49 | 2024-01-10T21:26:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-19kGd5VvA5eNyjv7Ah3e | Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day? | Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX | 2024-01-01T12:46:35 | 2024-01-09T17:54:14 | 2024-01-09T17:54:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9Ccsjc0fmbIb9g50p7SB | Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 4% or higher? | Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 4% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview] | 2024-01-01T12:23:21 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:35:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3FfdbAUk5WPuIW3h15Xi | Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2024? | Resolves NO as soon as he dies; YES on Jan 1 2025 Moscow time. | 2024-01-01T11:48:02 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2024-12-31T21:21:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7xTXkSV817B4Su0pKk3J | Will Netflix implement at least a 10% price hike in 2024 | In the US for the basic subscription. | 2024-01-01T11:12:06 | 2025-01-08T20:59:00 | 2025-01-08T23:50:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-471ueQ79UgkwGIMGQVjb | Will the S&P 500 have days of both +3 and -3% in 2024? | i.e. there is a day it increases > 3%, and another day it decreases by 3% | 2024-01-01T09:54:11 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:25:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AI072PY7h0pWB85R1Ynn | Will the Super Bowl be won by a bird team? | Super Bowl 58 | 2024-01-01T09:24:02 | 2024-01-28T15:53:13 | 2024-01-28T15:53:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WzCxtSPIJ0t9Pp0466dg | Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year? | Will a named hurricane hit New York and/or New Jersey this 2024 hurricane season? Still has to be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Closes at end of hurricane season.
| 2024-01-01T09:11:59 | 2024-11-29T17:01:26 | 2024-11-29T17:01:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IgtQsG0Tq8v0jYpNoxSS | Will Google Gemini Ultra debut by January 15th 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T09:02:57 | 2024-01-16T21:59:00 | 2024-01-17T07:10:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qcVibVhp3lN7fFjCUPnO | Will Kilauea erupt in January 2024? | Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone).
Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred.
"... | 2024-01-01T09:02:23 | 2024-02-01T01:59:00 | 2024-02-01T06:02:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QqNbfpHVBd4SSYTSlsrZ | Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:58:16 | 2024-12-30T20:53:44 | 2024-12-30T20:53:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8R8jE2ngaKozVLLyjeFe | Will there be a “wardrobe malfunction” during the Super Bowl halftime show? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:33:42 | 2024-02-11T20:43:52 | 2024-02-11T20:43:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9XTHtILaq8VFoWk2yPaZ | Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:31:54 | 2024-12-30T20:52:06 | 2024-12-30T20:52:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LSCGFyq8Ptaujx1zQi9g | Will Jimmy Carter live through the Spring? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:29:44 | 2024-06-20T09:05:53 | 2024-06-20T09:05:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VoWKsftPeDPYvLZwgVah | Will Jimmy Carter make it through Martin Luther King Jr. Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:28:42 | 2024-01-15T20:59:00 | 2024-01-15T21:18:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7i2CpcdBG4i4deO0Bmxj | Will Jimmy Carter survive Groundhog Day? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T08:28:02 | 2024-02-02T20:59:00 | 2024-02-02T21:02:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3VwHwUmqxRcSSuYL5qAz | Will the Buffalo Bills stampede the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 SNF | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:25:43 | 2024-01-07T20:23:12 | 2024-01-07T20:23:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ws9EpycixhO0q1owjMtM | Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the LA Chargers? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:25:00 | 2024-01-07T16:27:03 | 2024-01-07T16:27:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GNqjibt11QwnHWWtHHqm | Will the Seattle Seahawks shred the Arizona Cardinals? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:23:00 | 2024-01-07T16:25:48 | 2024-01-07T16:25:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-F6GahcOUYVYc3XjsNAeG | Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the NY Giants? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:22:06 | 2024-01-07T16:15:46 | 2024-01-07T16:15:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uxgvCMG7zAiG2UhVmd3J | Will the Denver Broncos trample the Las Vegas Raiders? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:21:11 | 2024-01-07T16:23:18 | 2024-01-07T16:23:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cViV84pBzAorOEpXMir5 | Will the Dallas Cowboys yee-haw the Washington Commanders? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:20:36 | 2024-01-07T16:12:53 | 2024-01-07T16:12:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lLzxLT9CQX8TwVtWvArt | Will the Chicago Bears maul the Green Bay Packers? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:20:00 | 2024-01-07T16:14:19 | 2024-01-07T16:14:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5ZgecJeC30dJvePJelPq | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cannonball the Carolina Panthers? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:18:01 | 2024-01-07T12:39:44 | 2024-01-07T12:39:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2Yb1687xBbS3IVW6opKt | Will the NY Jets blitzkrieg the New England Patriots? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:15:47 | 2024-01-07T13:12:33 | 2024-01-07T13:12:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-CIgNxMdssHgpBE2A2zTu | Will the Atlanta Falcons claw the New Orleans Saints? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:15:01 | 2024-01-07T13:12:56 | 2024-01-07T13:12:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bJIyrD0LoLvFnVeVA3bV | Will the Minnesota Vikings pillage the Detroit Lions? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:14:17 | 2024-01-07T13:12:01 | 2024-01-07T13:12:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dzeKL8356Xm3IArQAhkU | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars shred the Tennessee Titans? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:13:35 | 2024-01-07T13:10:49 | 2024-01-07T13:10:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5m5XiBileclevYReFZVB | Will the Houston Texans trample the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 SAT 8:15PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:12:01 | 2024-01-06T20:21:45 | 2024-01-06T20:21:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C5soZwOM0jUXTkm8Uved | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers shred the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 SAT 4:30PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2024-01-01T08:10:55 | 2024-01-06T16:29:35 | 2024-01-06T16:29:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Z7CxylZ9QuhnVSjaqk2 | Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024? | Subjective market.
Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.
Resolves to NO if Zvi would sti... | 2024-01-01T07:59:17 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:33:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kWTPahbh514r2qbB7WFL | Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2024, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context. | 2024-01-01T07:55:28 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-11T10:02:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TyYwbgo1DRlpqmFLMeE4 | Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2024? | Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates "object permanency" in the sense that it can resolve full object oclusions correctly(for example a mountain being temporarily hidden by a low cloud should still be there after the clo... | 2024-01-01T07:50:16 | 2024-07-10T11:52:00 | 2024-07-18T11:40:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5NWnAZ3Va6MYw9lPQo2S | Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T07:48:17 | 2025-01-03T05:55:29 | 2025-01-03T05:55:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX | Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate before 2025 that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, ... | 2024-01-01T07:44:58 | 2024-04-23T19:17:08 | 2024-04-23T19:17:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-idWRM5f7jzCBYSi9Y2rE | Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T07:43:03 | 2024-12-30T22:32:00 | 2025-01-02T21:50:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCp3EvOVA93RIuoynXJ4 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024? | Whether a nuclear weapon (tests are included) is detonated after the start of 2024 and before the end of 2024 | 2024-01-01T07:42:18 | 2024-12-31T10:29:00 | 2025-01-01T08:58:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9muwBZvDkvGSxwhfsKYV | Will Destiny be banned from twitter during 2024? | https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal
Only resolves YES if one of these conditions are met:
Destiny is banned or suspended from twitter when this market closes
Destiny is banned or suspended from twitter for thirty continuous days | 2024-01-01T06:17:27 | 2025-01-01T21:53:35 | 2025-01-01T21:53:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hgxCtvcTMOTCk7eJYuUy | Will there be a surprise performer at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Usher is performing. Will any other musician join him on stage? | 2024-01-01T06:08:54 | 2024-02-11T17:28:36 | 2024-02-11T17:28:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HljlOlazRfDvtSxyuWHH | Will the NASDAQ composite finish 2024 at 15,300 or higher? | 15,011.35 at start of 2023 | 2024-01-01T05:51:53 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:41:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JUaz4CO38GxoX3gJv7A5 | Will Elon Musk be SpaceX CEO through 2024? | If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of SpaceX through December 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No". | 2024-01-01T05:40:13 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-03T10:46:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qbsuES7pvuT1OkPDQO1x | [ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025? | Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20790/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if at any time in 2024, the International Atomic Energy Ag... | 2024-01-01T05:32:49 | 2025-01-02T12:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:55:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jYhfa0HTkhvLDKOO3kif | [ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%? | Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20789/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if the most recent effective federal funds rate on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.
Fine pri... | 2024-01-01T05:32:46 | 2025-01-02T11:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:55:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1uOFS8AhZxCHKdmZrwD9 | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024] | Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20786/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States con... | 2024-01-01T05:32:43 | 2024-05-30T15:41:35 | 2024-05-30T15:41:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YOibGTQDGfYltECJkFK0 | [ACX 2024] Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024? | Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20785/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of St... | 2024-01-01T05:32:40 | 2024-10-14T09:02:03 | 2024-10-14T09:02:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LGu3Gujg2HVyOjvRTblu | [ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024? | Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20784/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in fiscal year 2024, refugee admissions to the United States exceed 100,000 ac... | 2024-01-01T05:32:37 | 2024-10-06T04:41:00 | 2024-10-06T04:41:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XSnn9gmVdTiiXucAgE5d | [ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024? | Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20783/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:35 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:55:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NNQzMilcYjvCp9k57oGH | [ACX 2024] Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024? | Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20780/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:29 | 2024-05-07T13:09:53 | 2024-05-07T13:09:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KDZ3TIBsN6H3TthSG0di | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024] | Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20779/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Don... | 2024-01-01T05:32:26 | 2024-06-27T19:29:43 | 2024-06-27T19:29:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-B5XaEoWoP9lkqA2acRpw | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024] | Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20776/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified... | 2024-01-01T05:32:22 | 2025-01-01T23:00:00 | 2025-01-02T13:30:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cvX2nQSDbo2qGgsoZPQI | [ACX 2024] Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024? | Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20775/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that "orbit" is often used in a ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:20 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:55:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Atg8NQMsIiOcQedUMFSw | [ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025? | Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20774/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that at least some portions of the... | 2024-01-01T05:32:17 | 2025-01-05T10:41:08 | 2025-01-05T10:41:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-by3slGVYnioEYQcFORyF | [ACX 2024] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024? | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20771/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives u... | 2024-01-01T05:32:16 | 2025-01-02T09:15:42 | 2025-01-02T09:15:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zs3CCEEKIqEuwkxkdu6M | [ACX 2024] Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024? | Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20770/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:14 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:50:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4wJJEwIfetedH935r6Md | [ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024? | Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20768/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 peo... | 2024-01-01T05:32:13 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:50:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kw6oTZnUpYBOxQNd2Xvl | [ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024? | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20766/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that... | 2024-01-01T05:32:12 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:49:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UjzOb7pBZuVnZvuKzR8n | [ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024? | Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20764/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that t... | 2024-01-01T05:32:11 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:49:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GxD9nPrscEPqOakw7QVF | [ACX 2024] Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024? | Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20763/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an... | 2024-01-01T05:32:09 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:49:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fqvCSWG2fxCSolGH8sbU | [ACX 2024] Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024? | Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20762/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing pr... | 2024-01-01T05:32:08 | 2025-01-02T12:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:49:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iJ7o31v8HESYKU80nBSg | [ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024? | Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20761/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the Institute for the Stu... | 2024-01-01T05:32:07 | 2025-01-01T11:00:16 | 2025-01-03T03:48:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ILKXhlhz9RuQqxEQ2Xxr | [ACX 2024] Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024? | Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20760/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical mi... | 2024-01-01T05:32:06 | 2024-08-25T11:09:03 | 2024-08-25T11:09:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S7D89okeQ50bX31XKfje | [ACX 2024] Will an AI win a (highest division) coding contest on Codeforces in 2024? | Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20759/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:05 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:46:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s8aETYxMUpiCCBZcCF9e | [ACX 2024] Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024? | Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20758/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method i... | 2024-01-01T05:32:03 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:46:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kWCRdSdWhKoGiwxyCzpC | [ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024? | Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20757/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the total period made up of the months ... | 2024-01-01T05:32:01 | 2024-12-21T06:00:00 | 2024-12-30T12:00:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LrCr4yC30Ek0bIngMfmM | [ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024? | Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20754/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of ... | 2024-01-01T05:31:59 | 2024-08-14T11:41:17 | 2024-08-14T11:41:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P6V32Tnc2fXsl4DRjcMX | [ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024? | Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20753/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2... | 2024-01-01T05:31:58 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-02T10:36:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Kd4v7rOQJEFZgM9v9UM | [ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024? | Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20752/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and... | 2024-01-01T05:31:56 | 2025-01-02T10:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:46:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-j7iaO1Vitm9eWMNgum93 | [ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court? | In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20751/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves as Yes if any of the nine current justices retires, dies, is impeached, or resig... | 2024-01-01T05:31:55 | 2025-01-02T10:00:00 | 2025-01-03T04:05:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5r3JhrQo01eJGxpNA2dg | [ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election? | Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20749/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than th... | 2024-01-01T05:31:53 | 2024-12-18T06:14:53 | 2024-12-18T06:14:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
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