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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-YBdaUqbk7xFaGipO58gH
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 28, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 28, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:42:18
|
2024-03-28T15:21:58
|
2024-03-28T15:21:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-22Afs0BGWtpFCKDmzVDM
|
Will OpenAI release a model called GPT4.5 by end of day March 31, 2024?
|
Resolves yes if a model with a name including a substring of "4.5" is usable by general paying API customers by the end of March 31, 2024.
I will not bet in this market.
|
2024-01-01T13:41:33
|
2024-04-01T22:04:32
|
2024-04-01T22:04:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8Tz1FLVIqfl4k7RsZv3l
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:41:17
|
2024-03-27T20:59:49
|
2024-03-28T15:26:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T2QQEtaFjOGMhQh5tNMw
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 26, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:40:16
|
2024-03-26T20:59:49
|
2024-03-27T06:11:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1p09EmwoCSfFhNgjVPIx
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:39:15
|
2024-03-25T20:59:49
|
2024-03-26T10:53:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ge1PQfLmqmuRLCmMkAlW
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:38:15
|
2024-03-22T13:13:03
|
2024-03-22T13:13:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JPMnwvGPWVI1XKC02pSK
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:36:13
|
2024-03-20T13:43:56
|
2024-03-20T13:43:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZVvhgVkHL5QO9JuTu3Ic
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:35:08
|
2024-03-19T20:31:26
|
2024-03-19T20:31:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hZMqaJm62yXB1xBbTEOZ
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:34:07
|
2024-03-18T16:05:31
|
2024-03-18T16:05:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XYJZJURAHPnVASFJpRJQ
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 15, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 15, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:33:07
|
2024-03-15T13:40:56
|
2024-03-15T13:40:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GLYYj41gK6RxYjnaTI9h
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 14, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 14, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:32:06
|
2024-03-14T17:21:13
|
2024-03-14T17:21:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vhnsUeNaemZxH6IsVhYB
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 13, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 13, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:31:05
|
2024-03-13T14:15:24
|
2024-03-13T14:15:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lmz3ZqRawkf8bMP1S10X
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:30:04
|
2024-03-12T20:59:49
|
2024-03-13T10:46:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LDFsRoQJmATQ34OitsVv
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:29:03
|
2024-03-11T13:42:43
|
2024-03-11T13:42:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t7KKY1bnDywVif7CkVRM
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Mar 04, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:24:00
|
2024-03-04T20:31:51
|
2024-03-04T20:31:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PqKX8pz8YmOi3nL6ZCiV
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 29, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 29, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:21:59
|
2024-02-29T13:50:31
|
2024-02-29T13:50:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6AK13AS0IQCIgnCWzSuc
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 27, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:19:58
|
2024-02-27T14:30:11
|
2024-02-27T14:30:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DRytUmKPwrytQFdHcn5m
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 22, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:16:56
|
2024-02-22T13:38:45
|
2024-02-22T13:38:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nqZnBxyznQEcPW1zBxv5
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 21, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 21, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:15:55
|
2024-02-21T13:06:35
|
2024-02-21T13:06:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yTw4cHrIjYYqydV7h4XG
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 20, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:14:54
|
2024-02-20T14:03:33
|
2024-02-20T14:03:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V0aadmYi8DAiTcktJmpF
|
Will Blue Origin buy ULA?
|
Ambiguity: If Blue Origin Has a partner in the buyout, this question resolves YES.
|
2024-01-01T13:14:41
|
2025-01-31T22:59:00
|
2025-02-01T12:33:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7HfvpWL4rBXBh5bIFRtk
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 16, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:13:54
|
2024-02-16T13:59:10
|
2024-02-16T13:59:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LKFQuZhbcOhRgvP6vzG2
|
Will Destiny become romantically involved in a serious relationship with another person by June 2024?
|
It is a serious relationship if Destiny talks about dating them or it leaks that they are dating conclusively. Hooking up/friends with benefits/etc. do not count as serious relationships. If you have proof of a partner, comment said proof in the comments of this question. The main point of this question will remain the same but it may be subject to edits or qualifiers in the future upon suggestion from investors if I deem them appropriate.
|
2024-01-01T13:10:09
|
2024-06-01T21:59:00
|
2024-06-04T14:57:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BtCa9aus87E78nPcYjM8
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 07, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 07, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:06:48
|
2024-02-07T13:03:04
|
2024-02-07T13:03:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ifrqRDr6vwuTt3rEgtAD
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 06, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Feb 06, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T13:05:47
|
2024-02-06T14:21:59
|
2024-02-06T14:21:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6ru73uIU8X7l0j6hzcnk
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 25, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:57:43
|
2024-01-25T13:21:23
|
2024-01-25T13:21:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EDKpEfxd7AWcoLJvWNrp
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 23, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 23, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:55:42
|
2024-01-23T16:04:28
|
2024-01-23T16:04:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2qdrWHXr8N8btjhQ32N2
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 19, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:53:41
|
2024-01-19T13:16:55
|
2024-01-19T13:16:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jX2ttQ01gbqxO4NS6CGl
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 18, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:52:40
|
2024-01-18T13:46:07
|
2024-01-18T13:46:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oXVXUMEchS8MnCks0C5M
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 12, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:49:36
|
2024-01-12T20:14:29
|
2024-01-12T20:14:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DYXslqlU7gi321EizlJf
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 11, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:48:36
|
2024-01-11T20:59:49
|
2024-01-11T21:12:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qvCmr0RCvPZPRZGVuIur
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 10, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 10, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:47:35
|
2024-01-10T20:59:49
|
2024-01-10T21:26:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-19kGd5VvA5eNyjv7Ah3e
|
Will the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day?
|
Resolves to Yes if the S&P 500 Index close higher on Jan 09, 2024 compared to the previous trading day.
Resolves to No otherwise.
Resolution base on Yahoo! Finance Historical Data
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ESPX/history?p=%5ESPX
|
2024-01-01T12:46:35
|
2024-01-09T17:54:14
|
2024-01-09T17:54:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9Ccsjc0fmbIb9g50p7SB
|
Will the 10 Year Treasury Yield at closing on 12/31/2024 be 4% or higher?
|
Using the closing price on Dec 31st, 2024 reported by CNBC here: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y
If it is 4% or greater, this market resolves as YES
Otherwise it resolves to NO
[link preview]
|
2024-01-01T12:23:21
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:35:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3FfdbAUk5WPuIW3h15Xi
|
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2024?
|
Resolves NO as soon as he dies; YES on Jan 1 2025 Moscow time.
|
2024-01-01T11:48:02
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:21:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7xTXkSV817B4Su0pKk3J
|
Will Netflix implement at least a 10% price hike in 2024
|
In the US for the basic subscription.
|
2024-01-01T11:12:06
|
2025-01-08T20:59:00
|
2025-01-08T23:50:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-471ueQ79UgkwGIMGQVjb
|
Will the S&P 500 have days of both +3 and -3% in 2024?
|
i.e. there is a day it increases > 3%, and another day it decreases by 3%
|
2024-01-01T09:54:11
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:25:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AI072PY7h0pWB85R1Ynn
|
Will the Super Bowl be won by a bird team?
|
Super Bowl 58
|
2024-01-01T09:24:02
|
2024-01-28T15:53:13
|
2024-01-28T15:53:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WzCxtSPIJ0t9Pp0466dg
|
Will a hurricane hit New York / New Jersey this year?
|
Will a named hurricane hit New York and/or New Jersey this 2024 hurricane season? Still has to be a hurricane when it makes landfall. Closes at end of hurricane season.
|
2024-01-01T09:11:59
|
2024-11-29T17:01:26
|
2024-11-29T17:01:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IgtQsG0Tq8v0jYpNoxSS
|
Will Google Gemini Ultra debut by January 15th 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T09:02:57
|
2024-01-16T21:59:00
|
2024-01-17T07:10:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qcVibVhp3lN7fFjCUPnO
|
Will Kilauea erupt in January 2024?
|
Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone).
Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred.
"Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.
Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.
Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities
When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".
Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.
Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".
Disclosure: I will bet in this market, although I will cease if I think the situation has become ambiguous.
|
2024-01-01T09:02:23
|
2024-02-01T01:59:00
|
2024-02-01T06:02:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QqNbfpHVBd4SSYTSlsrZ
|
Will the abortion drug "mifepristone" be banned nationwide before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:58:16
|
2024-12-30T20:53:44
|
2024-12-30T20:53:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8R8jE2ngaKozVLLyjeFe
|
Will there be a “wardrobe malfunction” during the Super Bowl halftime show?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:33:42
|
2024-02-11T20:43:52
|
2024-02-11T20:43:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9XTHtILaq8VFoWk2yPaZ
|
Will North Korea successfully launch a satellite in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:31:54
|
2024-12-30T20:52:06
|
2024-12-30T20:52:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LSCGFyq8Ptaujx1zQi9g
|
Will Jimmy Carter live through the Spring?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:29:44
|
2024-06-20T09:05:53
|
2024-06-20T09:05:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VoWKsftPeDPYvLZwgVah
|
Will Jimmy Carter make it through Martin Luther King Jr. Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:28:42
|
2024-01-15T20:59:00
|
2024-01-15T21:18:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7i2CpcdBG4i4deO0Bmxj
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive Groundhog Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T08:28:02
|
2024-02-02T20:59:00
|
2024-02-02T21:02:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3VwHwUmqxRcSSuYL5qAz
|
Will the Buffalo Bills stampede the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 SNF
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:25:43
|
2024-01-07T20:23:12
|
2024-01-07T20:23:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ws9EpycixhO0q1owjMtM
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the LA Chargers? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:25:00
|
2024-01-07T16:27:03
|
2024-01-07T16:27:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GNqjibt11QwnHWWtHHqm
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks shred the Arizona Cardinals? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:23:00
|
2024-01-07T16:25:48
|
2024-01-07T16:25:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F6GahcOUYVYc3XjsNAeG
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the NY Giants? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:22:06
|
2024-01-07T16:15:46
|
2024-01-07T16:15:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uxgvCMG7zAiG2UhVmd3J
|
Will the Denver Broncos trample the Las Vegas Raiders? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:21:11
|
2024-01-07T16:23:18
|
2024-01-07T16:23:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cViV84pBzAorOEpXMir5
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys yee-haw the Washington Commanders? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:20:36
|
2024-01-07T16:12:53
|
2024-01-07T16:12:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lLzxLT9CQX8TwVtWvArt
|
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Green Bay Packers? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:20:00
|
2024-01-07T16:14:19
|
2024-01-07T16:14:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ZgecJeC30dJvePJelPq
|
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers cannonball the Carolina Panthers? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:18:01
|
2024-01-07T12:39:44
|
2024-01-07T12:39:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2Yb1687xBbS3IVW6opKt
|
Will the NY Jets blitzkrieg the New England Patriots? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:15:47
|
2024-01-07T13:12:33
|
2024-01-07T13:12:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CIgNxMdssHgpBE2A2zTu
|
Will the Atlanta Falcons claw the New Orleans Saints? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:15:01
|
2024-01-07T13:12:56
|
2024-01-07T13:12:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bJIyrD0LoLvFnVeVA3bV
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings pillage the Detroit Lions? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:14:17
|
2024-01-07T13:12:01
|
2024-01-07T13:12:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dzeKL8356Xm3IArQAhkU
|
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars shred the Tennessee Titans? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:13:35
|
2024-01-07T13:10:49
|
2024-01-07T13:10:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5m5XiBileclevYReFZVB
|
Will the Houston Texans trample the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 SAT 8:15PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:12:01
|
2024-01-06T20:21:45
|
2024-01-06T20:21:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C5soZwOM0jUXTkm8Uved
|
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers shred the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 SAT 4:30PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2024-01-01T08:10:55
|
2024-01-06T16:29:35
|
2024-01-06T16:29:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Z7CxylZ9QuhnVSjaqk2
|
Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
|
Subjective market.
Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.
Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.
Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.
|
2024-01-01T07:59:17
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:33:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kWTPahbh514r2qbB7WFL
|
Will Joe Rogan interview a guest about Georgism in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31 2024, 11:59:59 PM CT, Joseph James Rogan (aka "Joe Rogan"), host of the "Joe Rogan Experience", invites a guest onto that podcast who mentions any of these three words -- "Georgism", "Geoism", or "Land Value Tax" -- in a favorable context.
|
2024-01-01T07:55:28
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-11T10:02:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TyYwbgo1DRlpqmFLMeE4
|
Will a non-crappy video equivalent of dall-e be published before June 2024?
|
Question resolves positive if a model is capable of generating arbitrary videos of reasonable quality from text prompts and demonstrates "object permanency" in the sense that it can resolve full object oclusions correctly(for example a mountain being temporarily hidden by a low cloud should still be there after the cloud moves) most of the time. If it's unclear whether some existing model has the capabilities by the deadline I'll use my judgment to decide how to resolve the market, and will lean towards yes in cases where the model mostly does it correctly for simple videos but fails at cherrypicked edge cases.
|
2024-01-01T07:50:16
|
2024-07-10T11:52:00
|
2024-07-18T11:40:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NWnAZ3Va6MYw9lPQo2S
|
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T07:48:17
|
2025-01-03T05:55:29
|
2025-01-03T05:55:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-feHEiitpd6vlUIhIJnuX
|
Will Congress pass a bill in 2024 to ban TikTok in the US or force it to change ownership?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill is passed by both the US House and Senate before 2025 that has the effect of banning use of TikTok under its present ownership (ByteDance) by at least a majority of Americans. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the bill in question requires TikTok to be sold, and effectively bans the app if it is not sold in the future, this will suffice to resolve the market to "Yes".
(Note: Resolves to the YES option if a law or bill is passed even if the said bill has not been enacted to executioned yet)
|
2024-01-01T07:44:58
|
2024-04-23T19:17:08
|
2024-04-23T19:17:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-idWRM5f7jzCBYSi9Y2rE
|
Will Lex Fridman interview Vladimir Putin by end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T07:43:03
|
2024-12-30T22:32:00
|
2025-01-02T21:50:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zCp3EvOVA93RIuoynXJ4
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before the end of 2024?
|
Whether a nuclear weapon (tests are included) is detonated after the start of 2024 and before the end of 2024
|
2024-01-01T07:42:18
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-01T08:58:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9muwBZvDkvGSxwhfsKYV
|
Will Destiny be banned from twitter during 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/TheOmniLiberal
Only resolves YES if one of these conditions are met:
Destiny is banned or suspended from twitter when this market closes
Destiny is banned or suspended from twitter for thirty continuous days
|
2024-01-01T06:17:27
|
2025-01-01T21:53:35
|
2025-01-01T21:53:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hgxCtvcTMOTCk7eJYuUy
|
Will there be a surprise performer at the Super Bowl halftime show?
|
Usher is performing. Will any other musician join him on stage?
|
2024-01-01T06:08:54
|
2024-02-11T17:28:36
|
2024-02-11T17:28:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HljlOlazRfDvtSxyuWHH
|
Will the NASDAQ composite finish 2024 at 15,300 or higher?
|
15,011.35 at start of 2023
|
2024-01-01T05:51:53
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:41:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JUaz4CO38GxoX3gJv7A5
|
Will Elon Musk be SpaceX CEO through 2024?
|
If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of SpaceX through December 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
|
2024-01-01T05:40:13
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T10:46:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qbsuES7pvuT1OkPDQO1x
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
|
Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20790/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question will resolve as Yes if at any time in 2024, the International Atomic Energy Agency reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:49
|
2025-01-02T12:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:55:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jYhfa0HTkhvLDKOO3kif
|
[ACX 2024] Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
|
Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20789/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if the most recent effective federal funds rate on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:46
|
2025-01-02T11:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:55:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1uOFS8AhZxCHKdmZrwD9
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election? [ACX 2024]
|
Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20786/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:43
|
2024-05-30T15:41:35
|
2024-05-30T15:41:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YOibGTQDGfYltECJkFK0
|
[ACX 2024] Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
|
Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20785/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:40
|
2024-10-14T09:02:03
|
2024-10-14T09:02:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LGu3Gujg2HVyOjvRTblu
|
[ACX 2024] Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
|
Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20784/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in fiscal year 2024, refugee admissions to the United States exceed 100,000 according to data published by the US Refugee Processing Center (RPC). Note that this question asks for US fiscal year 2024 admissions, which runs from October 2023 to September 2024, not calendar year admissions.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:37
|
2024-10-06T04:41:00
|
2024-10-06T04:41:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XSnn9gmVdTiiXucAgE5d
|
[ACX 2024] Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
|
Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20783/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:35
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:55:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NNQzMilcYjvCp9k57oGH
|
[ACX 2024] Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
|
Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20780/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on large language models or products using large language models.
Forbids their creation
Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.
Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.
The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.
An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.
Resolution will be determined according to reporting from credible sources and keyword searches of GovTrack.us.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:29
|
2024-05-07T13:09:53
|
2024-05-07T13:09:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KDZ3TIBsN6H3TthSG0di
|
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election? [ACX 2024]
|
Will a debate be held between Joe Biden and Donald Trump before the 2024 US presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20779/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a live debate for presidential candidates, including a virtual debate.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:26
|
2024-06-27T19:29:43
|
2024-06-27T19:29:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B5XaEoWoP9lkqA2acRpw
|
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025? [ACX 2024]
|
Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20776/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:22
|
2025-01-01T23:00:00
|
2025-01-02T13:30:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cvX2nQSDbo2qGgsoZPQI
|
[ACX 2024] Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
|
Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20775/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that "orbit" is often used in a loose manner but this question has a specific definition of orbit in the fine print below.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:20
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:55:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Atg8NQMsIiOcQedUMFSw
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20774/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone "shutdown" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a shutdown furlough of some federal employees (for example, the brief February 9, 2018 shutdown would not count).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:17
|
2025-01-05T10:41:08
|
2025-01-05T10:41:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-by3slGVYnioEYQcFORyF
|
[ACX 2024] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
|
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20771/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be No if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. The determination of the resolution will be based on reports by credible sources.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:16
|
2025-01-02T09:15:42
|
2025-01-02T09:15:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zs3CCEEKIqEuwkxkdu6M
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
|
Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20770/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 100 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:14
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:50:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4wJJEwIfetedH935r6Md
|
[ACX 2024] Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
|
Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20768/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:13
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:50:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kw6oTZnUpYBOxQNd2Xvl
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
|
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20766/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:12
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:49:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UjzOb7pBZuVnZvuKzR8n
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
|
Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20764/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:11
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:49:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GxD9nPrscEPqOakw7QVF
|
[ACX 2024] Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?
|
Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20763/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers intact.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:09
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:49:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fqvCSWG2fxCSolGH8sbU
|
[ACX 2024] Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
|
Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20762/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing price of the SSE Index was on December 29th, 2023. Otherwise, the question will resolve NO.
The closing price will be checked at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:08
|
2025-01-02T12:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:49:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iJ7o31v8HESYKU80nBSg
|
[ACX 2024] Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
|
Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20761/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building — located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 — is under any of the following categories:
Ukrainian Control
Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives
Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location
The question will resolve as No if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:
Assessed Russian Control
Assessed Russian Advance
Claimed Russian Control
Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare
Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:07
|
2025-01-01T11:00:16
|
2025-01-03T03:48:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ILKXhlhz9RuQqxEQ2Xxr
|
[ACX 2024] Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?
|
Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20760/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical miles of the surface of the moon with a living crew.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:06
|
2024-08-25T11:09:03
|
2024-08-25T11:09:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S7D89okeQ50bX31XKfje
|
[ACX 2024] Will an AI win a (highest division) coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
|
Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20759/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on Codeforces in the highest division.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:05
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:46:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s8aETYxMUpiCCBZcCF9e
|
[ACX 2024] Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
|
Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20758/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:03
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:46:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kWCRdSdWhKoGiwxyCzpC
|
[ACX 2024] Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
|
Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20757/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to data published by Argonne National Laboratory.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:32:01
|
2024-12-21T06:00:00
|
2024-12-30T12:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LrCr4yC30Ek0bIngMfmM
|
[ACX 2024] Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
|
Will the WHO declare a global health emergency (PHEIC) in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20754/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:59
|
2024-08-14T11:41:17
|
2024-08-14T11:41:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P6V32Tnc2fXsl4DRjcMX
|
[ACX 2024] Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20753/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as YES on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves NO.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:58
|
2025-01-02T06:00:00
|
2025-01-02T10:36:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Kd4v7rOQJEFZgM9v9UM
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
|
Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20752/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire has gone into effect and stood for 30 days, beginning at any point between December 23rd, 2023 to December 31, 2024. A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by 2025.
The ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:56
|
2025-01-02T10:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:46:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j7iaO1Vitm9eWMNgum93
|
[ACX 2024] In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
|
In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20751/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves as Yes if any of the nine current justices retires, dies, is impeached, or resigns. Additionally, a change in size of the Supreme Court would also qualify, such as adding or removing members. In situations like a justice announcing retirement but serving beyond 2024, the resolution is based on the status as of December 31, 2024. If the justice is still serving on this date, the question resolves as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:55
|
2025-01-02T10:00:00
|
2025-01-03T04:05:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5r3JhrQo01eJGxpNA2dg
|
[ACX 2024] Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
|
Will there be faithless electors in the 2024 US Presidential election?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20749/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if any members of the Electoral College vote for a candidate other than the candidate to whom they had pledged their vote in the 2024 presidential election, and their vote is not invalidated, according to reporting by credible sources.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:53
|
2024-12-18T06:14:53
|
2024-12-18T06:14:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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