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mani-1ceeDgOxQDi9p5ZAw5UL
|
[ACX 2024] Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?
|
Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20748/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide) before January 1, 2025. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:51
|
2025-01-02T10:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:46:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s7Z1Zd3gMpmMusVXnY9y
|
[ACX 2024] Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
|
Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20747/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if the last measured price of Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measured price of Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap on January 1st, 2024 (UTC). Otherwise, the question will resolve NO.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:50
|
2025-01-01T01:30:02
|
2025-01-01T01:30:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QPPCX10yTBudXrsWORzl
|
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? [ACX 2024]
|
Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20722/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if credible sources report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025.
The resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities.
Leadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as "leading," but it is not necessary.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:49
|
2025-01-02T10:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:45:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9ZNPaZ7DQaXtKDOGKb6j
|
[ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
|
Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20720/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:47
|
2025-01-16T02:37:13
|
2025-01-16T02:37:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bPFEfnJj6r4yKGQVRKmj
|
[ACX 2024] Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
|
Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20695/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 2024 is greater than 4.0%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found here.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:46
|
2024-12-16T06:00:00
|
2024-12-16T13:53:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g6c7G7CaEw75pbCysx2y
|
[ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
|
Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20694/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:31:43
|
2025-01-02T10:00:00
|
2025-01-02T13:32:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X4Vaj0DUNlFJD4UnNoeM
|
[Metaculus] Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?
|
Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19865/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 is listed as operational on the EIA's monthly update of the Electric Generator Inventory on June 1, 2024. If the May report is not published by June 7, 2024, the resolution will be based on the most recent report available. For positive resolution, the Entity Name of the data set has to be ‘Georgia Power Co’ and the Generator ID has to be ‘4’.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:30:27
|
2024-06-02T04:00:00
|
2024-06-07T08:25:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kzgDEalRfiAMJ40Er34V
|
[Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
|
Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19851/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Rishi Sunak is listed as the Prime Minister of the UK on the official government website on May 31, 2024. In the event of a discrepancy or delay in the update of the government website, the question will additionally resolve based on real-time reports from at least two reputable and independent national news outlets. These sources must directly confirm Rishi Sunak's status as Prime Minister on the specified date. If neither the official website nor independent news outlets confirm his position as Prime Minister, the question will resolve as 'No'.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:30:23
|
2024-06-02T04:00:00
|
2024-06-03T06:25:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PoYnekOwSel6h5W9OFfY
|
[Metaculus] Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?
|
Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19850/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, any of the nations Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon is engaged in a state of war with Israel, characterized by any of the following being true:
• Official statements by any of the involved nation's government or military acknowledging a state of war.
• Official statements by the governments of at least two permanent members of the UN Security Council that acknowledge a state of war.
The primary source for resolution will be the official statements or press releases from the respective governments. If no official or credible report of a state of war is found by June 1, 2024, the question will resolve as 'No'.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2024-01-01T05:30:21
|
2024-06-02T04:00:00
|
2024-06-04T10:30:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gr4zf3WJtbJxPUQELaTj
|
Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.0090 in 2024?
|
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time of 2024 (Moscow Time), and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y
[image]
|
2024-01-01T05:18:39
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-26T11:03:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TlF1qO5ICPocgpg9rumG
|
2024: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2024-01-01T04:54:29
|
2024-03-07T04:20:01
|
2024-03-07T04:20:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mlkXZsOY67dkfPzlWaxB
|
Will Elon Musk be Tesla's CEO through 2024?
|
If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Tesla through December 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
|
2024-01-01T04:52:03
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:55:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WRq6OiApDGH1iujkYnio
|
Will the next UK general election be held in 2024?
|
From Wiki:
The next United Kingdom general election is to be held no later than 28 January 2025.[2] Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in December 2023 that he intends to hold the election in 2024.[3]
|
2024-01-01T03:14:27
|
2024-07-06T13:03:52
|
2024-07-06T13:03:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XSS72dlcT0Xvh0bJJSe6
|
Will any of the USA presidential candidates say the F word during a debate?
|
The F word is obviously Fuck.
The debate includes party debate and national debate. Does not include vice presidential candidate.
I usually watch most of the debates but sometimes misses it. I’m sure if they used this word, it will be in one of the headlines.
|
2024-01-01T03:12:39
|
2024-11-08T08:59:00
|
2024-11-13T20:34:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-no5KApchIBvnEOLjXsVN
|
Will there be a Starlink launch on 2nd or 3rd Jan 2024?
|
https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-9
|
2024-01-01T03:10:07
|
2024-01-03T00:31:29
|
2024-01-03T00:31:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XqW1WJEPQBInw4EN2YkZ
|
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of April 2024?
|
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current rate (1 Jan 2024) is around 89.5 against the USD (the higher the rate, the weaker the Ruble).
|
2024-01-01T02:48:45
|
2024-05-01T14:59:00
|
2024-05-01T15:43:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MHk3UbN2eHNkpYEfEI3U
|
Will Destiny talk to Martin Shkreli during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-01T02:46:23
|
2025-01-01T21:54:24
|
2025-01-01T21:54:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k9LKjQzYGRjbaTWkm6XF
|
Will Donald Trump still be alive on February 1st, 2024?
|
Continuing my series of one-month markets on Donald Trump's survival.
As usual, I will not bet on my own market.
|
2024-01-01T02:33:27
|
2024-02-01T08:29:07
|
2024-02-01T08:29:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fufLAyCzDjgXVLU3gr4E
|
Will Destiny reach 760k subscribers in January 2024?
|
Resolves to what his socialblade page says unless they got it obviously wrong.
|
2024-01-01T01:34:22
|
2024-01-28T05:30:08
|
2024-01-28T05:30:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EN04uLZ9fazkwka8aJ6h
|
Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024?
|
Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024.
|
2024-01-01T01:07:16
|
2024-10-20T09:22:10
|
2024-10-20T09:22:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2D06Xq1xhZUBc5y1qcrW
|
Will Destiny talk to Steven Crowder during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-01T00:39:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:55:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ufkJLsMVEKWFNEmT7Ns
|
Will Destiny talk to Tim Pool during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-01T00:34:55
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:55:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z45tNE6ZZOeTZuA3OFE7
|
Will Fortnite support MacOS again in 2024?
|
Support means that the MacOS-version will be on the same Fortnite season, item shop etc as any other device that has Fortnite.
Will resolve yes, when Fortnite for MacOS is updated with the current version.
Will resolve no, when no such support is added by December 31. 23:59 (MET)
|
2024-01-01T00:27:17
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:09:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WbyTVvSoDQRRS8SuRRXA
|
Will Destiny talk to Jordan Peterson during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
@/Tumbles/if-destiny-talks-to-jordan-peterson
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2024-01-01T00:17:18
|
2024-03-21T16:27:16
|
2024-03-21T16:27:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KxKNouKZhY5Nq005zpkv
|
Will Elon Musk appear on Infowars in 2024?
|
A phone interview on the air would count as a YES. Him showing up in studio would count as a YES. Something like the twitter interview Jones did through some third party intermediary would not count as a YES. Him simply being covered by Infowars would not resolve as a YES. He has to be on Infowars.
|
2024-01-01T00:04:23
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:44:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oViCqiLHgdwSPjRURUFX
|
Will the word "Rizz" be added to the OED online dictionary in 2024
|
Currently searching for rizz on https://www.oed.com/ returns 0 results and https://www.oed.com/dictionary/rizz_n currently returns 404.
The Merriam Webster Online does have an entry for Rizz
|
2023-12-31T19:25:48
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2024-12-31T06:34:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gwbh4EcNwFrYqW7p8QAX
|
Will Abrams tanks be deployed in combat in Ukraine by the end of March 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-31T19:16:30
|
2024-02-26T11:55:59
|
2024-02-26T11:55:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-20licAYOOqYTSKl5v1wx
|
In the 2024 US presidential election, will there be at least one faithless elector?
|
"In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or both offices or abstains from voting." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector
|
2023-12-31T18:02:22
|
2024-12-29T20:03:22
|
2024-12-29T20:03:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-22iLB2s3WreaHRy6yzyS
|
Will January 2024 in Boston be one of the 15 warmest Januaries ever?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-31T17:44:46
|
2024-01-30T23:59:00
|
2024-01-31T11:47:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VOlPzH3pkIaHkg5vuq8B
|
Will the Pope survive 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-31T13:52:11
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:55:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Dx8gVXzS0fmSCGhNt51Z
|
Will the Supreme Court make any decision on the Trump Colorado ballot before March 2024?
|
Dismissing counts as a decision
|
2023-12-31T12:48:13
|
2024-03-01T15:59:00
|
2024-03-01T19:04:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NlSfShaKRiG2ma0zLhnb
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #1 Michigan beat #2 Washington in the CFP National Championship game?
|
2024-01-08 at 7:30 PM ET in Houston, TX.
|
2023-12-31T12:33:12
|
2024-01-08T20:11:28
|
2024-01-08T20:11:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q3huePV5Wlzi5wfkhnqi
|
Will both Jim / John Harbaugh’s teams win the NCAAF national championship and NFL Super Bowl this season?
|
Or resolves when their respective team is knocked out of the playoffs.
|
2023-12-31T12:10:23
|
2024-01-28T15:14:08
|
2024-01-28T15:14:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ST6PJFgXDuTOI2xIGt4p
|
Will the USA get involved in a world war during 2024?
|
A world war is an international conflict that involves most or all of the world's major powers.[1]
We’re currently 90s to midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
|
2023-12-31T11:47:10
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:55:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JNC9AKTKeNrRJ4QYzB9I
|
Will OpenAI be the target and victim of a major cyber attack in 2024?
|
Includes major DDOS attacks.
Resolves YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: Evidence emerges that OpenAI was the intended target and victim of a successful and significant cyber attack. "Successful" and "significant" as determined by relevant authorities and general consensus. DDOS attacks only count if they successfully create a near total outage that lasts for at least 12 hours. Market will resolve when relevant authorities have reached conclusions on any evidence that emerged before 2025.
Resolves NO otherwise.
I will not be participating in this market.
Edit 01/01/2024: Added "and victim" to title to align with description and resolution criteria.
|
2023-12-31T11:04:56
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-27T14:14:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BR8lHvKEdL1kkExMggpO
|
Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024?
|
Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.
Will resolve YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.
Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a warhead may have been secretly detonated. In this case market will resolve once relevant authorities come to a concrete conclusion.
Will resolve NO otherwise.
I will not participate in this market.
|
2023-12-31T10:59:16
|
2025-01-01T15:01:44
|
2025-01-01T15:01:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3cflxY4jCQ6Y8gpXGpQK
|
Will a ceasefire be agreed between Russia and Ukraine in 2024?
|
Both Russia and Ukraine have to officially confirm within 2024 they have agreed to cease all military action for any length of time. As opposed to other markets, it does not have to be implemented by the parties; it resolves Yes immediately after mutual confirmation of the intention.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-there-be-peace-talks-between-r-c90b2c513101)
|
2023-12-31T08:45:15
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T02:22:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZTc60bUhrXePMg8VKcg8
|
Will there be mass protests in Russia in 2024?
|
The criteria for resolution are:
There has to be a mass gathering presenting grievances against authorities. It does not have to be directed explicitly against Putin or the current regime. The causes might be regional or national, related to economics, the upcoming presidential elections, the war in Ukraine, or anything else.
The gathering has to have at least 10,000 participants (for comparison: the 2014 protests against the annexation of Crimea are estimated to have had 30,000 participants, the 2011-12 Bolotnaya Square election protests up to 150,000). Alternatively, three protests on the same issue of at least 1,000 participants each in different cities within a month would count. I'll use independent media estimates if possible, and be generous with the interpretation in case of doubt.
|
2023-12-31T08:34:16
|
2024-03-02T00:45:55
|
2024-03-02T00:45:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kvivVX42Gj11rWzt68yf
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 4?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 4
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 4
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2023-12-31T08:24:19
|
2024-01-04T20:59:00
|
2024-01-04T22:12:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RWmSS6Kq8ITtthIy9OpP
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 3?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 3 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 3 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2023-12-31T08:23:27
|
2024-01-03T20:59:00
|
2024-01-03T21:44:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NtCImikjaQ4d1p5ZGwOe
|
Will the Climate Positive Public License gain adoption in the software industry?
|
The Climate Positive Public License (CPPL) is an initiative to align the world of software development with climate-positive actions. Inspired by the "viral" nature of open-source licenses, CPPL aims to promote environmental responsibility by conditioning the use of licensed software on adherence to climate-friendly practices.
"get traction" in this context would mean open source successful projects similar to ReactJS have adopted this license.
https://github.com/realvorl/ClimatePositivePublicLicense
|
2023-12-31T08:05:50
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:20:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CwpWzywW7jVOKLiHLJ7T
|
Will a spot BTC ETF be approved in the U.S. by January 15th 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-31T07:06:41
|
2024-01-10T16:14:37
|
2024-01-10T16:14:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PhMdAfGlfmRrBVqnMf59
|
Will North Korea successfully launch three satellites in 2024?
|
They don't specifically have to be military satellites
A successful launch is defined as the satellite entering a stable orbit
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/north-koreas-kim-hell-launch-3-spy-satellites-106013649
|
2023-12-31T05:00:03
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-03T03:09:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VohP1fH043zRFvCz77N7
|
Will The Finals achieve 100k concurrent steam players on January 31st 2024?
|
The Finals is a free-to-play FPS that launched 8 December 2023. On 31 Dec 2023, it achieved 120k peak daily players according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/ . Will it maintain this momentum, or will it's playerbase shrink over the next month?
|
2023-12-31T03:53:47
|
2024-01-31T15:59:00
|
2024-01-31T23:10:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zSuQqNZDabmt5r4409ei
|
Will Destiny talk to Nathan on stream during 2024?
|
The conversation must last at least ten minutes to count
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2023-12-31T02:32:31
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:55:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tyfTsXFwEs5le2H1blVl
|
Will Destiny talk to Lauren Southern during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2023-12-31T02:19:39
|
2024-07-14T16:00:56
|
2024-07-14T16:00:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-840zfjEu8u0seQ4zO7Uc
|
Will Destiny talk to Kyle Kulinski during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2023-12-31T02:18:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:56:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bpsuwdkba3E3MRfIaFeq
|
Will there be a week (7-day) long ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia during 2024?
|
1 week = 7 consecutive days
|
2023-12-31T02:03:56
|
2024-12-31T15:29:13
|
2024-12-31T15:29:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0IRLKW2UnKGvU0jWoKYn
|
Will Destiny talk to shoe0nhead during 2024?
|
On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard
|
2023-12-31T01:54:54
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:56:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u64uzceZpwmw3aPYUbTe
|
Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 80% in 2024?
|
If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president. In January 2023 it was 82% and in December 2023 it was 83%
This market will resolve to YES, if in any month of 2024, survey indicates Putin's approval rating lower than 80%.
[PS regardless of any methodology change]
[image]
resolution: Levada Center, https://www.levada.ru/en/ratings/
|
2023-12-31T01:08:34
|
2025-01-19T07:07:59
|
2025-01-19T07:07:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H2WIeU1fxK6jmzNzgmNO
|
Will France place in the top 6 on the Olympics Medal Table in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics?
|
The rankings of the medal table will be determined as per usual convention:
Ranked first by gold medals, then by silver if tied, then by bronze if tied. If tied in all three medal counts, then alphabetical order will break the tie.
If France places in the top 6, then this resolves YES.
EDIT 1/1/24:
ROC counts as a country for the purposes of this (as they have in most medal count markets on this site).
|
2023-12-30T23:26:16
|
2024-08-11T10:36:05
|
2024-08-11T10:36:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vaSx9HfWuxqGAz7M5nms
|
Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 1?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 1
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 1
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2023-12-30T22:31:03
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:27:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hz6xBZZSXlBzgP0fYISb
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die on January 4?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on Jan 4
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on Jan 4
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2023-12-30T22:05:14
|
2024-01-04T20:59:00
|
2024-01-04T22:11:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q8Hj02HHmDz15w2E7HGP
|
Will California Gov. Gavin Newsom appear on The Joe Rogan Experience by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T21:41:21
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:34:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6DkLwajsIJsf3cykCgHx
|
A presidential candidate will take a stance against AI by Feb 1, 2024.
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T20:33:30
|
2024-01-13T15:12:36
|
2024-01-13T15:12:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5p9YV3NzSvwn0KrBYZ2W
|
Will Notre Dame cathedral in Paris reopen to the public on Dec 8th, 2024?
|
The Notre Dame cathedral in Paris was badly damaged by fire in April 2019. The reconstruction since then has moved ahead with hundreds of stonemasons, carpenters, glassmakers and other artisans working on restoring the historical building. Recently the spire was completed with a new golden rooster on top.
See https://www.instagram.com/reel/CwuezBjq6lu/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA%3D%3D for videos and photos of the work.
The French government has now set a goal to reopen the Notre Dame to the public on December 8th, 2024. This market will resolve as yes if that date is met (local time), no if not.
See for more context https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/rebuilding-notre-dame/
|
2023-12-30T20:06:26
|
2024-12-08T22:42:43
|
2024-12-08T22:42:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qad32H8mbFG53yHTmP1C
|
Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2024?
|
For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as holding de facto power, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
If Xi becomes ill and arguably "de facto" power is held for a short period by someone else, but Xi keeps any of titles during this period, this would not count as ceasing to be China's leader.
See also:
@/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-5440920441a8
@/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas
@/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-dc30a08f527f
@/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-ad388d2ec732
@/cash/will-xi-jinping-cease-to-be-chinas-ff7f812901f1
|
2023-12-30T17:58:26
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:30:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1XdXhCWIVFKNKAh57SIz
|
Will Las Palmas beat Barcelona during regular time on Thu, Jan 4, 2024? - La Liga
|
⚽ Las Palmas vs Barcelona
📅 Date: Thursday, January 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:30
🏆 Competition: La Liga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Las Palmas has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Barcelona has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-12-30T17:14:41
|
2024-01-04T15:30:00
|
2024-01-04T18:01:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S0AcRNzRVjvW8aRTPU0R
|
Will effective altruism splinter in 2024?
|
Several extremely critical articles regarding effective altruism have been published in widely read newspapers in December 2023, with the latest at time of publication being in Politico. The Politico article refers to effective altruism as a doomsday "cult" and states that the EA movement has "infiltrated" Washington DC.
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/30/ai-debate-culture-clash-dc-silicon-valley-00133323
The article quotes people, such as @RobinHanson, who were effective altruists but left the movement due to its shift in focus.
This market will resolve to YES if these people, or others who believe in the founding values of effective altruism (what the Politico article refers to as "malaria nets" and other near-term charitable contributions), become frustrated and found a new movement before December 31, 2024.
The new movement must:
Have a different name than Effective Altruism
Be centered on charitable giving and not just be a joke group (although it may start as one)
Disavow "longtermism" - or, specifically, the focus on the unborn or uncreated over currently alive beings
Disagree with @EliezerYudkowsky's extreme viewpoints on AI safety - at minimum, by disavowing his statement on nuclear weapons
Have at least 100 people calling themseves members of the group, with 100 of them agreeing with all of these minimal criteria
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-12-30T16:19:48
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T05:35:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8nDPe8PQT1IWfZ3jUSe8
|
Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca during regular time on Wed, Jan 3, 2024? - La Liga
|
⚽ Real Madrid vs Mallorca
📅 Date: Wednesday, January 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:15
🏆 Competition: La Liga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Mallorca has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-12-30T16:02:13
|
2024-01-03T13:15:00
|
2024-01-03T14:01:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ptb8G4emiG6iGwbb4M4t
|
Will ‘Wonka’ (2023) gross $200m or more domestically by the end of Jan 2024? 🍭
|
This will resolve ‘Yes’ if Wonka earns more $200m at the domestic box office by January 31st 11:59pm ET 2024.
|
2023-12-30T13:47:08
|
2024-02-01T03:32:53
|
2024-02-01T03:32:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KJxCIYLSpUN7NkiKeM5a
|
Will bitcoin drop below $20,000 during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T13:39:16
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:09:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pudCWTD8ayO7qfFVAJNV
|
Will bitcoin drop below $25,000 during 2024?
|
Price Reference: Google Finance
|
2023-12-30T13:38:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:09:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cYMCpGxzM1ycJTlslhqO
|
Will bitcoin drop below $35,000 during 2024?
|
Price Reference: Google Finance
|
2023-12-30T13:38:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:40:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NB3I2nTTcTaIuhFFYCkY
|
🏈 NFL: Will Jason Kelce retire from pro football before the start of the 2024 regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T12:14:36
|
2024-03-04T18:51:24
|
2024-03-04T18:51:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AanU6xOmNF63vNGyPYcJ
|
Will Mistral AI release a model that is comparable to GPT-4 using LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T11:54:30
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-06T22:40:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FODJJlfuWDAqwlKG8IQ1
|
Will kick.com still be around by the end of 2024?
|
i'll check if there are at least 10 streamers live with at least 100 viewers each.
If site happens to be down, i'll wait a few days and check again.
Rebranding if it changes the url = NO
|
2023-12-30T11:17:19
|
2024-12-30T13:59:00
|
2024-12-31T12:23:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ac57NoIuTdhFeSYQfA1a
|
Will the S&P 500 close 2024 above 5,000?
|
Closed 2023 at 4769.83.
Closing not intraday.
|
2023-12-30T10:20:41
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:09:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ue9K7oQWeK0qa8DCej2C
|
Will Tesla trade below $100 at any point during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T09:48:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:45:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lkhiUXL2oj4DlGiXRFzc
|
Will Hunter Biden survive 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T09:26:59
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:09:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uePc02TRLR0GVZLa2Ms7
|
Will Databricks IPO during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-30T09:20:14
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T08:56:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v1szZQLMJx7WsP3EQEra
|
Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024?
|
credit LW community survey.
"Release" means that a random member of the public can use it, possibly paid.
EDIT: i won’t bet in this market.
|
2023-12-30T07:53:01
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-15T22:33:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fy6jjuaRNFyfWhUHc3el
|
Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2025?
|
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of the Moon, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2025 (and after 2023). For the purpose of this market, a flyby of the Moon must occur within a distance of no more than 100 thousand kilometers from its surface.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-5be75802cd57 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-0e0a12a57167
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-14d109820be6
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-069166147734
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-79ed68d6492b
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l
Human venture onto the Lunar surface questions:
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-97ccfb75fd6d
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-2461b12d959d
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-7178da6928ae
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-5dd99d5a1e48
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-7e6517a06d7e
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-f0c1a341f8ea
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-fa1926d83aec
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-b347b1a76a97
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-2a1f4da84a39
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar-163b9107ef15
@/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-lunar
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-45498bfa05ca
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-449f2f19c777
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-0fdef2f48e50
@/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-the-moon-again-92c888722442
Solar system exploration:
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-5be75802cd57 (this question)
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-108243356386
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-5027258fe404
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-f447d8800dd3@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-11c9ccc36662
Other questions:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb
To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).
The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 50 thousand kilometers threshold from the Moon. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from the Moon.
Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:FullMoon2020.tif
|
2023-12-30T07:33:08
|
2025-02-18T22:23:07
|
2025-02-18T22:23:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KXtFzM74zTal3t7YhaPz
|
Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024?
|
This market is centered on whether an open source Large Language Model (LLM) will achieve a higher Elo rating than OpenAI’s GPT-4 on the Chatbot Arena platform by the end of 2024.
Chatbot Arena utilizes a crowdsourced, randomized battle platform where user votes contribute to computing Elo ratings. This specific market will be resolved based on the Elo ratings of the models as reported by Chatbot Arena.
The link to the website: https://chat.lmsys.org/
The resolution will consider the highest Elo rating recorded for an open source LLM compared to GPT-4’s Elo rating as of December 31, 2024.
It’s important to note that only the Elo ratings will be used for determining the outcome, not considering other benchmarks like MT-Bench or MMLU scores.
The latest update of the leaderboard by December 20, 2024, will be used for the final assessment.
Update 2024-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The market will consider any GPT-4 model variant present on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard, not just a specific version
An open source model needs to surpass any of the GPT-4 models listed on the leaderboard to resolve as YES
Update 2024-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - For a YES resolution, an open source model must surpass any of the GPT-4 model variants listed on the leaderboard
Multiple GPT-4 model variants may be present on the leaderboard, and all will be considered for comparison
|
2023-12-30T05:50:31
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:57:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MLiofKZBmf171HpGvxm1
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #6 Georgia win against #5 Florida State by more than 20.5 points in the Orange Bowl?
|
2023-12-30 at 4 PM ET in Miami Gardens, FL.
|
2023-12-29T23:28:55
|
2023-12-30T16:36:08
|
2023-12-30T16:36:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hsGErwq3UPRFgpB6nbs7
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die on a weekend in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a weekend. (Sat/Sun)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a weekend. (Sat/Sun)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-on-a-federal)
|
2023-12-29T20:07:21
|
2024-12-29T16:33:33
|
2024-12-29T16:33:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mwzv8k2FO8lJSPYR8kFx
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die on a weekday in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a weekday. (Mon-Fri)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a weekday. (Mon-Fri)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first-a7ff2e8e883f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-on-a-federal)
|
2023-12-29T19:26:46
|
2024-12-29T16:29:48
|
2024-12-29T16:29:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8KcFQTeBqrlBqjkLNxAC
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die on a federal holiday in 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a federal holiday in 2024.
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a federal holiday in 2024.
[image](https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-in-the-first-a7ff2e8e883f)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024)
|
2023-12-29T18:01:19
|
2024-12-29T16:33:28
|
2024-12-29T16:33:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dyjsaaiJ5RmAI66tprCd
|
Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15)
|
Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
|
2023-12-29T17:17:02
|
2024-01-15T20:59:00
|
2024-01-15T21:02:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cqDHjxNjNWtuugtJNlDF
|
Will Destiny will appear on a show / podcast with Dr Phil before the end of February 2024?
|
Destiny mentioned being in discussion with a producer for a new Dr Phil show.
https://youtu.be/oM7WoZfgm8E?t=243.
Reddit post with broken vod link referencing the appearance.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/18g8wis/stream_updates_benny_morris_thursfri_scuffed/
This market will resolve with the show / podcast being uploaded, Destiny indicating an appearance has been recorded will not cause a resolution.
|
2023-12-29T15:00:54
|
2024-03-01T18:44:00
|
2024-03-01T18:44:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FvHj3o4AvElI28oMFxjj
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die during 2024
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-blaze-through-apr?play=true)
|
2023-12-29T14:00:11
|
2024-12-29T16:21:27
|
2024-12-29T16:21:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oARJcxHd5UvmJUaX0Urm
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2023-12-29T13:58:11
|
2024-06-30T20:59:00
|
2024-07-02T22:51:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5yxVWmCEbk6S4LESTo2g
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2023-12-29T13:55:55
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-03-31T21:10:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h0byjfgqo1yNTBnt3Y2T
|
Will Hamas declare victory against Israel in 2024?
|
This question seeks to predict whether the Hamas organization, through its officials, will declare victory over Israel within the year 2024. For the purposes of this market, a declaration of victory refers to a public statement made by a recognized authority within Hamas leadership, such as a member of its political bureau or a high-ranked leader of its military wing.
Winning Conditions:
The market resolves positively if, at any time during the year 2024, a public statement is released by Hamas leaders explicitly declaring victory over Israel. The statement must unambiguously state that Hamas has achieved victory, using terms such as "defeated Israel" or "Hamas is victorious over Israel." If no such statement is made in the year 2024, the market resolves negatively.
UPD (for clarity): using a dysphemism instead of Israel also suffices. For example they could state a victory against zionists/occupants etc., but it should be unambiguously clear that they are talking about Israel.
|
2023-12-29T13:17:01
|
2024-12-31T21:36:45
|
2024-12-31T21:36:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EYW8X58VW8aNY4wVOq83
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die during the month of January 2024
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the month of Jan 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the month of Jan 2024
|
2023-12-29T12:03:05
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T01:44:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IRDds9miMB1T31ldUV3l
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2023-12-29T11:45:22
|
2024-01-06T20:59:00
|
2024-01-06T21:29:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SWnOZdrRtcqA7mMOJZ6P
|
Will Jimmy Carter Die on December 30th?
|
Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on Dec 30
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on Dec 30
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)
|
2023-12-29T11:31:46
|
2023-12-30T20:59:00
|
2023-12-30T21:27:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y
|
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years?
|
Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent (or third party) and gets more of the popular vote than Ross Perot in 1992 (18.91%).
Based on Chamath's prediction in the latest All In podcast.
|
2023-12-29T10:52:24
|
2024-11-06T13:59:00
|
2024-11-06T14:01:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iEIWmBeurHpdwEguYkAH
|
Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024?
|
Resolution: "Elon Musk will formally announce his candidacy for a political office in the year 2024."
Operational Definitions:
Elon Musk: Refers to the entrepreneur known for founding or leading companies such as SpaceX, Tesla, Inc., Neuralink, and The Boring Company.
Formally Announce: An official declaration made by Elon Musk or his authorized representative, communicated through a public medium such as a press release, official social media account, public speech, or official interview. Speculative or unofficial reports do not qualify as a formal announcement.
Candidacy for a Political Office: This includes any elected position within the political structure of any country. It must be a recognized office that is part of a governmental structure, including local, state/provincial, or federal levels.
Year 2024: The announcement must occur between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, based on the local time zone where the announcement is made.
The resolution is considered met if Elon Musk, as defined, makes a formal announcement, as defined, of his intention to run for a recognized political office, as defined, within the specified timeframe of the year 2024, which would result in a resolution to YES.
If the year 2024 ends without such an announcement being made, the resolution is considered not met, which would result in a resolution to NO.
|
2023-12-29T10:51:36
|
2024-12-05T08:34:44
|
2024-12-05T08:34:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EP1HVLQrxiXwaxnjBjq7
|
Will the most searched for news in 2024 be AI related?
|
At the end of each year, Google releases a year in search page.
This market resolves if the most searched for news in 2024 ends up being reasonably related to AI.
Of course, reasonable is a subjective measure, but at most 1 degree of separation is permissible, and a relatively high bar will be required in case it comes down to the wire, which I doubt will happen. Resolves to N/A aka contract will be cancelled if Google ceases to exist or does not release a year in search 2024.
For reference, these are the top 5 most searched for news in 2023:
[image]
|
2023-12-29T10:41:03
|
2025-01-02T12:09:02
|
2025-01-02T12:09:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP
|
Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024?
|
I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024
|
2023-12-29T10:04:41
|
2024-12-18T11:42:42
|
2024-12-18T11:42:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m5DfTCkUXpdIm3QOpxwM
|
Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election win at least 300 Electoral Votes?
|
Faithless electors do not count for this resolution.
|
2023-12-29T09:55:56
|
2024-12-14T23:59:00
|
2024-12-15T16:54:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4vkLz27S7bv7HpCwIVSe
|
Will Starship IFT-3 try for full orbit?
|
Will they attempt a suborbital trajectory like ift 1 and 2, or will they go straight for a real orbital attempt?
The attempt doesn't need to be successful for this market, the important thing is the intent.
|
2023-12-29T09:43:14
|
2024-03-14T07:09:16
|
2024-03-14T07:09:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FO6WKkohAeFuIPjK7ggB
|
Will Justin Fields be traded by March 15, 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Fields is traded before or on March 15, 2024. The trade counts if it is reported by a major outlet (ESPN, NFL Network, etc.) or a team involved as happening and does not need to literally be processed by the date to count.
|
2023-12-29T09:16:19
|
2024-03-16T20:59:00
|
2024-03-17T08:54:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ulYE6V8t4E34P6ySbiA5
|
Will a clear (>5σ) spectral evidence of life on an exoplanet be published in a peer-reviewed article in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if between 01 Jan 2023 and 31 Dec 2024 an article reporting conclusive spectral biosignatures of one or more exoplanets is published in a scientific journal with two-year impact factor (latest value) no less than 3.
Market will resolve YES no earlier than two months after the candidate publication, to give time for post-publication critical peer reviews of the paper to be posted. "Conclusive" generally means at >5σ level, but I leave the final judgement to myself. I am not an astrophysicist, but I have a PhD in optical spectroscopy, so I'm sure I can evaluate the arguments for and against the publication.
Note: Had this market been for 2023, the following paper would not have been deemed "conclusive" by me:
Madhusudhan, N., Sarkar, S., Constantinou, S., Holmberg, M., Piette, A. A., & Moses, J. I. (2023). Carbon-bearing molecules in a possible hycean atmosphere. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, 956(1), L13. (ArXiV PDF)
|
2023-12-29T07:20:08
|
2025-02-01T06:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:10:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K734rLHSgfiWKkBPN1bB
|
Will Google Chrome include a Gemini powered chatbot by the end of March 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-29T06:38:30
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T07:04:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6FpiajcVLdqGi7ztLZsz
|
Novo Nordisk will still be the largest company in the EU by market capitalization by the end of 2024?
|
“Weight-loss drug maker Novo Nordisk becomes Europe’s most valuable company”
https://www.ft.com/content/19357584-62e0-452f-a06f-7cda1d8cd0e3
|
2023-12-29T03:56:44
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-02-14T23:29:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-npwhgNTmAafzf4Twadie
|
Will the UK Government abolish inheritance tax in the March 6th 2024 Spring Budget?
|
Resolves to YES if the UK Government announces the abolition of inheritance tax at the March 6th 2024 Spring Budget.
Resolves to NO if not. This includes if the Spring Budget announces only cuts to inheritance tax or announces plans to look at abolishing inheritance tax (e.g. announcing a review to consider the abolition of inheritance tax).
This market will not be voided if the date of the Spring Budget is moved by 28 days or less but will be voided if the date is moved by 29 days or more.
Further clarification (3/1/24) - Resolves to YES if Inheritance Tax is reduced to 0.0% for everyone for no set period of time. Resolves to NO if it is reduced to 0.0% for everyone for a set period time (e.g. if it was similar to previous Stamp Duty holidays where the UK Government made clear that it was only for a set period of time).
|
2023-12-29T02:46:15
|
2024-03-05T15:59:00
|
2024-03-06T06:36:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZD9INFVv25BkGHB20LGz
|
Will there be commercial flying cars by Eoy 2024?
|
As quoted by "The Week":
It seems 2024 could finally be the year that so-called "flying cars" take to the skies. Technically known as eVTOL aircraft, standing for "electric vertical take-off and landing", dozens of companies around the world have been in a race to develop a "quieter, cheaper and emission-free aircraft, that can land right in the heart of cities", said the BBC's technology of business editor Ben Morris.
These could become commercially available in some US cities in 2024, reported CNBC, even if "regulations for managing the new form of air traffic will be a concern".
Hugh Martin, from Lacuna Technologies, which helps cities create transportation policies, told the news network there was a difference between when cars can fly and when they will be safe and reliable for navigating the skies.
It was hoped the world's first electric air taxi network would be available in time for the Paris Olympics but the city council has rejected the pioneering scheme as noisy, elitist and pointless. Enter Donald Trump, who has set out a vision of a Jetsons-inspired commute should he be re-elected in November.
Remark: This can mean private, expensive, invite lists in any city around the world where you can be in a flying car from one place to another (possibly like Waymo in SF).
|
2023-12-28T23:49:32
|
2024-12-25T23:59:00
|
2025-01-07T20:57:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DB0tzBe2IOLr3vy3UKpE
|
Will Xi Jinping visit Iran during 2024?
|
The Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledge that Xi formally accepted an invitation from Tehran extended by President Ebirhim Raisi during this weeks state visit to Beijing. Didn’t happen in 2023. Will the visit happen during 2024?
|
2023-12-28T23:21:34
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T21:10:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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