id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-1ceeDgOxQDi9p5ZAw5UL | [ACX 2024] Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024? | Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20748/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if either the US Food and Drug Administrat... | 2024-01-01T05:31:51 | 2025-01-02T10:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:46:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-s7Z1Zd3gMpmMusVXnY9y | [ACX 2024] Will Bitcoin go up over 2024? | Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20747/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if the last measured price of Bitcoin on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measu... | 2024-01-01T05:31:50 | 2025-01-01T01:30:02 | 2025-01-01T01:30:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QPPCX10yTBudXrsWORzl | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024? [ACX 2024] | Will Ilya Sutskever still lead OpenAI’s Superalignment team at the end of 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20722/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still servin... | 2024-01-01T05:31:49 | 2025-01-02T10:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:45:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9ZNPaZ7DQaXtKDOGKb6j | [ACX 2024] Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024? | Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20720/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% f... | 2024-01-01T05:31:47 | 2025-01-16T02:37:13 | 2025-01-16T02:37:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bPFEfnJj6r4yKGQVRKmj | [ACX 2024] Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024? | Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20695/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question resolves as Yes if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 20... | 2024-01-01T05:31:46 | 2024-12-16T06:00:00 | 2024-12-16T13:53:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g6c7G7CaEw75pbCysx2y | [ACX 2024] Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024? | Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20694/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.
... | 2024-01-01T05:31:43 | 2025-01-02T10:00:00 | 2025-01-02T13:32:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-X4Vaj0DUNlFJD4UnNoeM | [Metaculus] Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024? | Will the Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 be operational in May, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19865/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Georgia Power Co Vogtle nuclear power plant Unit 4 ... | 2024-01-01T05:30:27 | 2024-06-02T04:00:00 | 2024-06-07T08:25:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kzgDEalRfiAMJ40Er34V | [Metaculus] Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024? | Will Rishi Sunak be Prime Minister of the UK on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19851/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if Rishi Sunak is listed as the Prime Minister of the UK on the official governme... | 2024-01-01T05:30:23 | 2024-06-02T04:00:00 | 2024-06-03T06:25:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PoYnekOwSel6h5W9OFfY | [Metaculus] Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024? | Will at least one of Egypt, Jordan, or Lebanon be at war with Israel on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19850/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, any of the nations Egypt, Jordan, or... | 2024-01-01T05:30:21 | 2024-06-02T04:00:00 | 2024-06-04T10:30:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gr4zf3WJtbJxPUQELaTj | Will the Russian Ruble (RUB) fall below $0.0090 in 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the dollar price / exchange rate of one Russian Ruble (RUB) falls below $0.00900 at any time of 2024 (Moscow Time), and “No” otherwise. The official resolution source will be
https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y
[image] | 2024-01-01T05:18:39 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-26T11:03:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TlF1qO5ICPocgpg9rumG | 2024: Turkey and Hungary approve the accession of Sweden and Finland to NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2024-01-01T04:54:29 | 2024-03-07T04:20:01 | 2024-03-07T04:20:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mlkXZsOY67dkfPzlWaxB | Will Elon Musk be Tesla's CEO through 2024? | If Elon Musk remains in charge as CEO of Tesla through December 31st, 2024, this market will resolve to "Yes".
If he steps down or leaves for whatever reason, even if temporarily, this market will resolve to "No".
| 2024-01-01T04:52:03 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T05:55:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WRq6OiApDGH1iujkYnio | Will the next UK general election be held in 2024? | From Wiki:
The next United Kingdom general election is to be held no later than 28 January 2025.[2] Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said in December 2023 that he intends to hold the election in 2024.[3] | 2024-01-01T03:14:27 | 2024-07-06T13:03:52 | 2024-07-06T13:03:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XSS72dlcT0Xvh0bJJSe6 | Will any of the USA presidential candidates say the F word during a debate? | The F word is obviously Fuck.
The debate includes party debate and national debate. Does not include vice presidential candidate.
I usually watch most of the debates but sometimes misses it. I’m sure if they used this word, it will be in one of the headlines. | 2024-01-01T03:12:39 | 2024-11-08T08:59:00 | 2024-11-13T20:34:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-no5KApchIBvnEOLjXsVN | Will there be a Starlink launch on 2nd or 3rd Jan 2024? | https://www.spacex.com/launches/mission/?missionId=sl-7-9 | 2024-01-01T03:10:07 | 2024-01-03T00:31:29 | 2024-01-03T00:31:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XqW1WJEPQBInw4EN2YkZ | Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of April 2024? | Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current rate (1 Jan 2024) is around 89.5 against the USD (the higher the rate, the weaker the Ruble). | 2024-01-01T02:48:45 | 2024-05-01T14:59:00 | 2024-05-01T15:43:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MHk3UbN2eHNkpYEfEI3U | Will Destiny talk to Martin Shkreli during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2024-01-01T02:46:23 | 2025-01-01T21:54:24 | 2025-01-01T21:54:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-k9LKjQzYGRjbaTWkm6XF | Will Donald Trump still be alive on February 1st, 2024? | Continuing my series of one-month markets on Donald Trump's survival.
As usual, I will not bet on my own market. | 2024-01-01T02:33:27 | 2024-02-01T08:29:07 | 2024-02-01T08:29:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fufLAyCzDjgXVLU3gr4E | Will Destiny reach 760k subscribers in January 2024? | Resolves to what his socialblade page says unless they got it obviously wrong. | 2024-01-01T01:34:22 | 2024-01-28T05:30:08 | 2024-01-28T05:30:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EN04uLZ9fazkwka8aJ6h | Will more than 1000 people die in a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah/Lebanon during 2024? | Counting all deaths caused by all fighting between the two sides during all of 2024. | 2024-01-01T01:07:16 | 2024-10-20T09:22:10 | 2024-10-20T09:22:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2D06Xq1xhZUBc5y1qcrW | Will Destiny talk to Steven Crowder during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2024-01-01T00:39:04 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:55:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1ufkJLsMVEKWFNEmT7Ns | Will Destiny talk to Tim Pool during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2024-01-01T00:34:55 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:55:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Z45tNE6ZZOeTZuA3OFE7 | Will Fortnite support MacOS again in 2024? | Support means that the MacOS-version will be on the same Fortnite season, item shop etc as any other device that has Fortnite.
Will resolve yes, when Fortnite for MacOS is updated with the current version.
Will resolve no, when no such support is added by December 31. 23:59 (MET) | 2024-01-01T00:27:17 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:09:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WbyTVvSoDQRRS8SuRRXA | Will Destiny talk to Jordan Peterson during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
@/Tumbles/if-destiny-talks-to-jordan-peterson
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2024-01-01T00:17:18 | 2024-03-21T16:27:16 | 2024-03-21T16:27:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KxKNouKZhY5Nq005zpkv | Will Elon Musk appear on Infowars in 2024? | A phone interview on the air would count as a YES. Him showing up in studio would count as a YES. Something like the twitter interview Jones did through some third party intermediary would not count as a YES. Him simply being covered by Infowars would not resolve as a YES. He has to be on Infowars. | 2024-01-01T00:04:23 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T14:44:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-oViCqiLHgdwSPjRURUFX | Will the word "Rizz" be added to the OED online dictionary in 2024 | Currently searching for rizz on https://www.oed.com/ returns 0 results and https://www.oed.com/dictionary/rizz_n currently returns 404.
The Merriam Webster Online does have an entry for Rizz | 2023-12-31T19:25:48 | 2024-12-31T04:59:00 | 2024-12-31T06:34:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gwbh4EcNwFrYqW7p8QAX | Will Abrams tanks be deployed in combat in Ukraine by the end of March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-31T19:16:30 | 2024-02-26T11:55:59 | 2024-02-26T11:55:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-20licAYOOqYTSKl5v1wx | In the 2024 US presidential election, will there be at least one faithless elector? | "In the United States Electoral College, a faithless elector is an elector who does not vote for the candidates for U.S. President and U.S. Vice President for whom the elector had pledged to vote, and instead votes for another person for one or both offices or abstains from voting." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithl... | 2023-12-31T18:02:22 | 2024-12-29T20:03:22 | 2024-12-29T20:03:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-22iLB2s3WreaHRy6yzyS | Will January 2024 in Boston be one of the 15 warmest Januaries ever? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-31T17:44:46 | 2024-01-30T23:59:00 | 2024-01-31T11:47:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VOlPzH3pkIaHkg5vuq8B | Will the Pope survive 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-31T13:52:11 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:55:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Dx8gVXzS0fmSCGhNt51Z | Will the Supreme Court make any decision on the Trump Colorado ballot before March 2024? | Dismissing counts as a decision | 2023-12-31T12:48:13 | 2024-03-01T15:59:00 | 2024-03-01T19:04:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NlSfShaKRiG2ma0zLhnb | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #1 Michigan beat #2 Washington in the CFP National Championship game? | 2024-01-08 at 7:30 PM ET in Houston, TX. | 2023-12-31T12:33:12 | 2024-01-08T20:11:28 | 2024-01-08T20:11:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q3huePV5Wlzi5wfkhnqi | Will both Jim / John Harbaugh’s teams win the NCAAF national championship and NFL Super Bowl this season? | Or resolves when their respective team is knocked out of the playoffs. | 2023-12-31T12:10:23 | 2024-01-28T15:14:08 | 2024-01-28T15:14:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ST6PJFgXDuTOI2xIGt4p | Will the USA get involved in a world war during 2024? | A world war is an international conflict that involves most or all of the world's major powers.[1]
We’re currently 90s to midnight
https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/
| 2023-12-31T11:47:10 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:55:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JNC9AKTKeNrRJ4QYzB9I | Will OpenAI be the target and victim of a major cyber attack in 2024? | Includes major DDOS attacks.
Resolves YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: Evidence emerges that OpenAI was the intended target and victim of a successful and significant cyber attack. "Successful" and "significant" as determined by relevant authorities and general consensus. DDOS attacks only count if they successfully c... | 2023-12-31T11:04:56 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-27T14:14:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BR8lHvKEdL1kkExMggpO | Will a nuclear warhead be detonated in 2024? | Any detonation, including accidental and tests will count. Partial detonations count, but failed (duds) do not.
Will resolve YES if:
Before January 1, 2025: any entity openly admits to detonating a nuclear warhead either as an act of war, as a test, or by accident.
Before January 1, 2025: evidence emerges that a war... | 2023-12-31T10:59:16 | 2025-01-01T15:01:44 | 2025-01-01T15:01:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3cflxY4jCQ6Y8gpXGpQK | Will a ceasefire be agreed between Russia and Ukraine in 2024? | Both Russia and Ukraine have to officially confirm within 2024 they have agreed to cease all military action for any length of time. As opposed to other markets, it does not have to be implemented by the parties; it resolves Yes immediately after mutual confirmation of the intention.
See also:
(https://manifold.marke... | 2023-12-31T08:45:15 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:22:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZTc60bUhrXePMg8VKcg8 | Will there be mass protests in Russia in 2024? | The criteria for resolution are:
There has to be a mass gathering presenting grievances against authorities. It does not have to be directed explicitly against Putin or the current regime. The causes might be regional or national, related to economics, the upcoming presidential elections, the war in Ukraine, or anythi... | 2023-12-31T08:34:16 | 2024-03-02T00:45:55 | 2024-03-02T00:45:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-kvivVX42Gj11rWzt68yf | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 4? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 4
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 4
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testie... | 2023-12-31T08:24:19 | 2024-01-04T20:59:00 | 2024-01-04T22:12:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RWmSS6Kq8ITtthIy9OpP | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 3? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 3 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 3 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/em... | 2023-12-31T08:23:27 | 2024-01-03T20:59:00 | 2024-01-03T21:44:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-NtCImikjaQ4d1p5ZGwOe | Will the Climate Positive Public License gain adoption in the software industry? | The Climate Positive Public License (CPPL) is an initiative to align the world of software development with climate-positive actions. Inspired by the "viral" nature of open-source licenses, CPPL aims to promote environmental responsibility by conditioning the use of licensed software on adherence to climate-friendly pr... | 2023-12-31T08:05:50 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:20:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CwpWzywW7jVOKLiHLJ7T | Will a spot BTC ETF be approved in the U.S. by January 15th 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-31T07:06:41 | 2024-01-10T16:14:37 | 2024-01-10T16:14:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-PhMdAfGlfmRrBVqnMf59 | Will North Korea successfully launch three satellites in 2024? | They don't specifically have to be military satellites
A successful launch is defined as the satellite entering a stable orbit
https://www.google.com/amp/s/abcnews.go.com/amp/International/wireStory/north-koreas-kim-hell-launch-3-spy-satellites-106013649 | 2023-12-31T05:00:03 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-03T03:09:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VohP1fH043zRFvCz77N7 | Will The Finals achieve 100k concurrent steam players on January 31st 2024? | The Finals is a free-to-play FPS that launched 8 December 2023. On 31 Dec 2023, it achieved 120k peak daily players according to https://store.steampowered.com/charts/ . Will it maintain this momentum, or will it's playerbase shrink over the next month? | 2023-12-31T03:53:47 | 2024-01-31T15:59:00 | 2024-01-31T23:10:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zSuQqNZDabmt5r4409ei | Will Destiny talk to Nathan on stream during 2024? | The conversation must last at least ten minutes to count
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2023-12-31T02:32:31 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:55:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tyfTsXFwEs5le2H1blVl | Will Destiny talk to Lauren Southern during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2023-12-31T02:19:39 | 2024-07-14T16:00:56 | 2024-07-14T16:00:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-840zfjEu8u0seQ4zO7Uc | Will Destiny talk to Kyle Kulinski during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2023-12-31T02:18:04 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:56:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bpsuwdkba3E3MRfIaFeq | Will there be a week (7-day) long ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia during 2024? | 1 week = 7 consecutive days | 2023-12-31T02:03:56 | 2024-12-31T15:29:13 | 2024-12-31T15:29:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0IRLKW2UnKGvU0jWoKYn | Will Destiny talk to shoe0nhead during 2024? | On any platform. Audio or video conversation. Must be publicly streamed or posted. Group calls count as long as a conversation takes place.
Destiny Debates 2024 dashboard | 2023-12-31T01:54:54 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:56:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u64uzceZpwmw3aPYUbTe | Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 80% in 2024? | If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president. In January 2023 it was 82... | 2023-12-31T01:08:34 | 2025-01-19T07:07:59 | 2025-01-19T07:07:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H2WIeU1fxK6jmzNzgmNO | Will France place in the top 6 on the Olympics Medal Table in the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics? | The rankings of the medal table will be determined as per usual convention:
Ranked first by gold medals, then by silver if tied, then by bronze if tied. If tied in all three medal counts, then alphabetical order will break the tie.
If France places in the top 6, then this resolves YES.
EDIT 1/1/24:
ROC counts as a... | 2023-12-30T23:26:16 | 2024-08-11T10:36:05 | 2024-08-11T10:36:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vaSx9HfWuxqGAz7M5nms | Will Jimmy Carter be alive at the end of the day on January 1? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy is alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 1
Resolves No if Jimmy isn't alive at 11:59 PM EST on January 1
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testie... | 2023-12-30T22:31:03 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-01T21:27:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Hz6xBZZSXlBzgP0fYISb | Will Jimmy Carter Die on January 4? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on Jan 4
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on Jan 4
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-2024) | 2023-12-30T22:05:14 | 2024-01-04T20:59:00 | 2024-01-04T22:11:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q8Hj02HHmDz15w2E7HGP | Will California Gov. Gavin Newsom appear on The Joe Rogan Experience by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T21:41:21 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:34:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6DkLwajsIJsf3cykCgHx | A presidential candidate will take a stance against AI by Feb 1, 2024. | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T20:33:30 | 2024-01-13T15:12:36 | 2024-01-13T15:12:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5p9YV3NzSvwn0KrBYZ2W | Will Notre Dame cathedral in Paris reopen to the public on Dec 8th, 2024? | The Notre Dame cathedral in Paris was badly damaged by fire in April 2019. The reconstruction since then has moved ahead with hundreds of stonemasons, carpenters, glassmakers and other artisans working on restoring the historical building. Recently the spire was completed with a new golden rooster on top.
See https:/... | 2023-12-30T20:06:26 | 2024-12-08T22:42:43 | 2024-12-08T22:42:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qad32H8mbFG53yHTmP1C | Will Xi Jinping cease to be China's leader before the end of 2024? | For the purposes of this question, Xi Jinping's leadership of China includes both formal titles (President, General Secretary, Chairman of the Central Military Commission) as well as his de facto leadership.
If Xi ceases to hold all of his formal titles, but comes up with a new one and is still widely recognized as ho... | 2023-12-30T17:58:26 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:30:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1XdXhCWIVFKNKAh57SIz | Will Las Palmas beat Barcelona during regular time on Thu, Jan 4, 2024? - La Liga | ⚽ Las Palmas vs Barcelona
📅 Date: Thursday, January 4, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:30
🏆 Competition: La Liga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Las Palmas has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppa... | 2023-12-30T17:14:41 | 2024-01-04T15:30:00 | 2024-01-04T18:01:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S0AcRNzRVjvW8aRTPU0R | Will effective altruism splinter in 2024? | Several extremely critical articles regarding effective altruism have been published in widely read newspapers in December 2023, with the latest at time of publication being in Politico. The Politico article refers to effective altruism as a doomsday "cult" and states that the EA movement has "infiltrated" Washington ... | 2023-12-30T16:19:48 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:35:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8nDPe8PQT1IWfZ3jUSe8 | Will Real Madrid beat Mallorca during regular time on Wed, Jan 3, 2024? - La Liga | ⚽ Real Madrid vs Mallorca
📅 Date: Wednesday, January 3, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 18:15
🏆 Competition: La Liga
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Real Madrid has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stop... | 2023-12-30T16:02:13 | 2024-01-03T13:15:00 | 2024-01-03T14:01:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ptb8G4emiG6iGwbb4M4t | Will ‘Wonka’ (2023) gross $200m or more domestically by the end of Jan 2024? 🍭 | This will resolve ‘Yes’ if Wonka earns more $200m at the domestic box office by January 31st 11:59pm ET 2024. | 2023-12-30T13:47:08 | 2024-02-01T03:32:53 | 2024-02-01T03:32:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KJxCIYLSpUN7NkiKeM5a | Will bitcoin drop below $20,000 during 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T13:39:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:09:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pudCWTD8ayO7qfFVAJNV | Will bitcoin drop below $25,000 during 2024? | Price Reference: Google Finance | 2023-12-30T13:38:53 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:09:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-cYMCpGxzM1ycJTlslhqO | Will bitcoin drop below $35,000 during 2024? | Price Reference: Google Finance | 2023-12-30T13:38:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T03:40:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NB3I2nTTcTaIuhFFYCkY | 🏈 NFL: Will Jason Kelce retire from pro football before the start of the 2024 regular season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T12:14:36 | 2024-03-04T18:51:24 | 2024-03-04T18:51:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AanU6xOmNF63vNGyPYcJ | Will Mistral AI release a model that is comparable to GPT-4 using LLM benchmarks by July 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T11:54:30 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-06T22:40:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FODJJlfuWDAqwlKG8IQ1 | Will kick.com still be around by the end of 2024? | i'll check if there are at least 10 streamers live with at least 100 viewers each.
If site happens to be down, i'll wait a few days and check again.
Rebranding if it changes the url = NO | 2023-12-30T11:17:19 | 2024-12-30T13:59:00 | 2024-12-31T12:23:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ac57NoIuTdhFeSYQfA1a | Will the S&P 500 close 2024 above 5,000? | Closed 2023 at 4769.83.
Closing not intraday. | 2023-12-30T10:20:41 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:09:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ue9K7oQWeK0qa8DCej2C | Will Tesla trade below $100 at any point during 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T09:48:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T18:45:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-lkhiUXL2oj4DlGiXRFzc | Will Hunter Biden survive 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T09:26:59 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:09:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-uePc02TRLR0GVZLa2Ms7 | Will Databricks IPO during 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-30T09:20:14 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T08:56:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v1szZQLMJx7WsP3EQEra | Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the end of 2024? | credit LW community survey.
"Release" means that a random member of the public can use it, possibly paid.
EDIT: i won’t bet in this market. | 2023-12-30T07:53:01 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-15T22:33:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fy6jjuaRNFyfWhUHc3el | Will there be a crewed mission to Lunar orbit before 2025? | Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of the Moon, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2025 (and after 2023). For the purpose of this market, a flyby of the Moon must occur within a distance of no more than 100 thousand kilometers from its surface.
Quest... | 2023-12-30T07:33:08 | 2025-02-18T22:23:07 | 2025-02-18T22:23:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KXtFzM74zTal3t7YhaPz | Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024? | This market is centered on whether an open source Large Language Model (LLM) will achieve a higher Elo rating than OpenAI’s GPT-4 on the Chatbot Arena platform by the end of 2024.
Chatbot Arena utilizes a crowdsourced, randomized battle platform where user votes contribute to computing Elo ratings. This specific mark... | 2023-12-30T05:50:31 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:57:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-MLiofKZBmf171HpGvxm1 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #6 Georgia win against #5 Florida State by more than 20.5 points in the Orange Bowl? | 2023-12-30 at 4 PM ET in Miami Gardens, FL. | 2023-12-29T23:28:55 | 2023-12-30T16:36:08 | 2023-12-30T16:36:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hsGErwq3UPRFgpB6nbs7 | Will Jimmy Carter Die on a weekend in 2024? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a weekend. (Sat/Sun)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a weekend. (Sat/Sun)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimm... | 2023-12-29T20:07:21 | 2024-12-29T16:33:33 | 2024-12-29T16:33:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mwzv8k2FO8lJSPYR8kFx | Will Jimmy Carter Die on a weekday in 2024? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a weekday. (Mon-Fri)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a weekday. (Mon-Fri)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimm... | 2023-12-29T19:26:46 | 2024-12-29T16:29:48 | 2024-12-29T16:29:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8KcFQTeBqrlBqjkLNxAC | Will Jimmy Carter Die on a federal holiday in 2024? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on a federal holiday in 2024.
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on a federal holiday in 2024.
[image](https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo)(https://manifold.markets/embed/T... | 2023-12-29T18:01:19 | 2024-12-29T16:33:28 | 2024-12-29T16:33:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dyjsaaiJ5RmAI66tprCd | Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary page at end of Blue Monday 2024? (Jan 15) | Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ | 2023-12-29T17:17:02 | 2024-01-15T20:59:00 | 2024-01-15T21:02:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cqDHjxNjNWtuugtJNlDF | Will Destiny will appear on a show / podcast with Dr Phil before the end of February 2024? | Destiny mentioned being in discussion with a producer for a new Dr Phil show.
https://youtu.be/oM7WoZfgm8E?t=243.
Reddit post with broken vod link referencing the appearance.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Destiny/comments/18g8wis/stream_updates_benny_morris_thursfri_scuffed/
This market will resolve with the show / pod... | 2023-12-29T15:00:54 | 2024-03-01T18:44:00 | 2024-03-01T18:44:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FvHj3o4AvElI28oMFxjj | Will Jimmy Carter Die during 2024 | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in 2024
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JCDM/will-jimmy-carter-blaze-through-apr?play=true) | 2023-12-29T14:00:11 | 2024-12-29T16:21:27 | 2024-12-29T16:21:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oARJcxHd5UvmJUaX0Urm | Will Jimmy Carter Die in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th) | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in the first half of 2024 (Jan 1st - June 30th)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo) | 2023-12-29T13:58:11 | 2024-06-30T20:59:00 | 2024-07-02T22:51:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5yxVWmCEbk6S4LESTo2g | Will Jimmy Carter Die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st) | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die in the first quarter of 2024 (Jan 1st - Mar 31st)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo) | 2023-12-29T13:55:55 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-03-31T21:10:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h0byjfgqo1yNTBnt3Y2T | Will Hamas declare victory against Israel in 2024? | This question seeks to predict whether the Hamas organization, through its officials, will declare victory over Israel within the year 2024. For the purposes of this market, a declaration of victory refers to a public statement made by a recognized authority within Hamas leadership, such as a member of its political bu... | 2023-12-29T13:17:01 | 2024-12-31T21:36:45 | 2024-12-31T21:36:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EYW8X58VW8aNY4wVOq83 | Will Jimmy Carter Die during the month of January 2024 | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the month of Jan 2024
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the month of Jan 2024 | 2023-12-29T12:03:05 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T01:44:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IRDds9miMB1T31ldUV3l | Will Jimmy Carter Die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6) | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die during the first week of 2024 (Dec 31-Jan 6)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo) | 2023-12-29T11:45:22 | 2024-01-06T20:59:00 | 2024-01-06T21:29:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SWnOZdrRtcqA7mMOJZ6P | Will Jimmy Carter Die on December 30th? | Resolves Yes if Jimmy dies on Dec 30
Resolves No if Jimmy doesn't die on Dec 30
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-fi)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Testiecool/will-jimmy-carter-die-during-the-mo) | 2023-12-29T11:31:46 | 2023-12-30T20:59:00 | 2023-12-30T21:27:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3gs9fpA28AxDuwhMkT0y | Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the most successful independent US presidential candidate in the last 100 years? | Resolves YES if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. runs as an independent (or third party) and gets more of the popular vote than Ross Perot in 1992 (18.91%).
Based on Chamath's prediction in the latest All In podcast. | 2023-12-29T10:52:24 | 2024-11-06T13:59:00 | 2024-11-06T14:01:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iEIWmBeurHpdwEguYkAH | Will Elon Musk run for a political office in 2024? | Resolution: "Elon Musk will formally announce his candidacy for a political office in the year 2024."
Operational Definitions:
Elon Musk: Refers to the entrepreneur known for founding or leading companies such as SpaceX, Tesla, Inc., Neuralink, and The Boring Company.
Formally Announce: An official declaration made ... | 2023-12-29T10:51:36 | 2024-12-05T08:34:44 | 2024-12-05T08:34:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EP1HVLQrxiXwaxnjBjq7 | Will the most searched for news in 2024 be AI related? | At the end of each year, Google releases a year in search page.
This market resolves if the most searched for news in 2024 ends up being reasonably related to AI.
Of course, reasonable is a subjective measure, but at most 1 degree of separation is permissible, and a relatively high bar will be required in case it co... | 2023-12-29T10:41:03 | 2025-01-02T12:09:02 | 2025-01-02T12:09:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP | Will there be a ceasefire in Gaza by Eoy 2024? | I will resolve this if a multiple month (minimum 3) ceasefire happens before the end of 2024 | 2023-12-29T10:04:41 | 2024-12-18T11:42:42 | 2024-12-18T11:42:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-m5DfTCkUXpdIm3QOpxwM | Will the winner of the 2024 US Presidential Election win at least 300 Electoral Votes? | Faithless electors do not count for this resolution. | 2023-12-29T09:55:56 | 2024-12-14T23:59:00 | 2024-12-15T16:54:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4vkLz27S7bv7HpCwIVSe | Will Starship IFT-3 try for full orbit? | Will they attempt a suborbital trajectory like ift 1 and 2, or will they go straight for a real orbital attempt?
The attempt doesn't need to be successful for this market, the important thing is the intent. | 2023-12-29T09:43:14 | 2024-03-14T07:09:16 | 2024-03-14T07:09:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FO6WKkohAeFuIPjK7ggB | Will Justin Fields be traded by March 15, 2024? | Resolves YES if Fields is traded before or on March 15, 2024. The trade counts if it is reported by a major outlet (ESPN, NFL Network, etc.) or a team involved as happening and does not need to literally be processed by the date to count. | 2023-12-29T09:16:19 | 2024-03-16T20:59:00 | 2024-03-17T08:54:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ulYE6V8t4E34P6ySbiA5 | Will a clear (>5σ) spectral evidence of life on an exoplanet be published in a peer-reviewed article in 2024? | Resolves YES if between 01 Jan 2023 and 31 Dec 2024 an article reporting conclusive spectral biosignatures of one or more exoplanets is published in a scientific journal with two-year impact factor (latest value) no less than 3.
Market will resolve YES no earlier than two months after the candidate publication, to gi... | 2023-12-29T07:20:08 | 2025-02-01T06:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:10:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-K734rLHSgfiWKkBPN1bB | Will Google Chrome include a Gemini powered chatbot by the end of March 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-29T06:38:30 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T07:04:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6FpiajcVLdqGi7ztLZsz | Novo Nordisk will still be the largest company in the EU by market capitalization by the end of 2024? | “Weight-loss drug maker Novo Nordisk becomes Europe’s most valuable company”
https://www.ft.com/content/19357584-62e0-452f-a06f-7cda1d8cd0e3 | 2023-12-29T03:56:44 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-02-14T23:29:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-npwhgNTmAafzf4Twadie | Will the UK Government abolish inheritance tax in the March 6th 2024 Spring Budget? | Resolves to YES if the UK Government announces the abolition of inheritance tax at the March 6th 2024 Spring Budget.
Resolves to NO if not. This includes if the Spring Budget announces only cuts to inheritance tax or announces plans to look at abolishing inheritance tax (e.g. announcing a review to consider the abolit... | 2023-12-29T02:46:15 | 2024-03-05T15:59:00 | 2024-03-06T06:36:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZD9INFVv25BkGHB20LGz | Will there be commercial flying cars by Eoy 2024? | As quoted by "The Week":
It seems 2024 could finally be the year that so-called "flying cars" take to the skies. Technically known as eVTOL aircraft, standing for "electric vertical take-off and landing", dozens of companies around the world have been in a race to develop a "quieter, cheaper and emission-free aircraft,... | 2023-12-28T23:49:32 | 2024-12-25T23:59:00 | 2025-01-07T20:57:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DB0tzBe2IOLr3vy3UKpE | Will Xi Jinping visit Iran during 2024? | The Chinese Foreign Ministry acknowledge that Xi formally accepted an invitation from Tehran extended by President Ebirhim Raisi during this weeks state visit to Beijing. Didn’t happen in 2023. Will the visit happen during 2024? | 2023-12-28T23:21:34 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:10:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
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