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stringlengths 8
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stringlengths 13
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stringlengths 0
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stringlengths 19
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stringlengths 19
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stringlengths 19
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| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-T58z1Wq5KDOxYUyHX6oE
|
Will Hamas surrender in 2024?
|
Surrender = Formal acknowledgment of defeat & cessation of all military activities against Israel
|
2023-12-28T22:15:14
|
2024-12-31T15:49:20
|
2024-12-31T15:49:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz
|
Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024?
|
Including tests and accidents. Multiple >1.
|
2023-12-28T21:35:40
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:08:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-spfL8U1bO9fB4qNOnJvw
|
Will a third state ban Trump from the ballot for insurrection before the issue is moot or decided nationally?
|
As of today, two states, Colorado and Maine, have banned Trump from running for president, based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
https://apnews.com/article/maine-trump-presidential-ballot-election-insurrection-081fd38ce1f20be9b8423cb2f8c66dee
This market resolves YES if any other state finds that Trump is ineligible to run for president due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, before either of the following happens:
The state submits its electoral votes for the 2024 election.
The Supreme Court makes a ruling that either renders Trump officially ineligible to be president, bans all states from having him on the ballot, or requires all states to allow him to run.
Trump's candidacy ends through dropping out, incapacitation, or death.
If all states submit their electoral votes or a nationwide ruling is made before a third state bans Trump from running, then the market resolves NO.
In order to count for a YES resolution, a decision must be statewide, so that it would either prevent Trump from being on the presidential ballot anywhere in the state, or prevent him from being selected as the winner of the state's primary, caucus, or general election. It does not matter if the decision is restricted such that it applies only to the primary or caucus, or only to the general election, so long as it applies statewide to some part of the presidential election. It also doesn't matter if the decision is later overturned, even if it is overturned by state courts, rather than federal ones.
It doesn't matter whether the decision is made by state courts, the secretary of state, or some other body or official, as long as the body making the decision has a credible claim to having the authority to do so (i.e. they are not just some random crank trying to unilaterally do something they obviously can't, or a body that doesn't have statewide authority, etc.), even if courts later rule that they actually didn't have that authority.
Note that a Supreme Court ruling only counts for a NO resolution if it settles the issue nationwide, meaning that requires all states to allow Trump on the ballot or requires all of them to consider him ineligible. If the Supreme Court rules that it is up to the states to decide for themselves if Trump is eligible to run, then it doesn't settle the issue nationally.
|
2023-12-28T20:48:40
|
2024-02-28T19:29:30
|
2024-02-28T19:29:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eawymacHhCXODeRPgJxl
|
Will the Detroit Pistons break the all-time longest losing streak against the Toronto Raptors?
|
The Pistons extended the all-time losing streak in a single season with 28 losses against the Celtics on the 28th. However, this tied them up with the all-time losing streak in the regular season, with the Philadelphia 76ers losing 28 straight games to end the 2014-15 season and start the 2015-16 season.
Heading back home to face the lowly Raptors, will these Pistons move past the 76ers to 29 straight losses?
Yes - Pistons lose
No - Pistons win
N/A - Game gets canceled or rescheduled
|
2023-12-28T20:32:49
|
2023-12-30T17:38:43
|
2023-12-30T17:38:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DlCVBJZA5OUz0uN40sCc
|
Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩⚖️👨⚖️
|
Congress has been uniquely inefficient in its 118th session, with the current divided government only passing only 31 laws in the first half of the two-year session (see older data below).
Will Congress pass 60 laws by the end of its 118th session?
Data (numbers visible in the “Laws” tab)
118th [‘23-‘24; divided] - 31 laws (so far)
117th [‘21-‘22; Dem controlled] - 365 laws
116th [‘19-‘20; divided] - 344 laws
115th [‘17-‘18; GOP controlled] - 443 laws
and a quick and timeless refresher on how a bill becomes a law:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/SZ8psP4S6BQ?si=kwK0L75ix3TRSVCz)
|
2023-12-28T20:18:26
|
2024-12-14T12:30:06
|
2024-12-14T12:30:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dpaawDugSihdsjG7Heah
|
🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
|
Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2024 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]
For This Market These Terms Mean The Following:
Bi-lateral = Must Be Between Israel & Hamas
Lasting = Minimum 10 Calendar Days
Ceasefire = A call to terminate all hostilities
Signed = Must Be An Agreement Signed By Leader(s) Of Minimum 1 Leader From Israel and 1 Leader From Hamas, May Include Negotiated Terms Between The Parties Through Third Party Nations And/Or Special Councils/Government Agencies.
Clarifications: None At This Time
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
Update 2024-23-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - All requirements (including the 10 day lasting ceasefire) must be met during 2024
If a ceasefire agreement was signed in secret during 2024 but only revealed after December 31st 2024, it will still count as long as it meets all other criteria
Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Time: The market will resolve as NO at 5pm ET / 12am Israel Time, earlier than the previously stated December 31st, 2024. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-12-28T15:58:34
|
2024-12-31T14:00:00
|
2024-12-31T15:02:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nPDarEIpjd2sOyQoNNhJ
|
Will Bitcoin hit $80K before Sweden joins NATO?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-28T15:35:06
|
2024-03-07T09:16:00
|
2024-03-07T09:16:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xEA5ZHSziE0Oi9Qjl9sb
|
Will Oppenheimer win for best picture in the 2024 Academy Awards?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-28T15:27:19
|
2024-03-11T20:21:39
|
2024-03-11T20:21:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UgDySInslzxKjUX9hB1x
|
Will May 2024 be the hottest May on record?
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report, which is usually released during the following month
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2023-12-28T13:06:36
|
2024-06-01T20:59:00
|
2024-06-14T07:34:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yuyOdH3DN5RgAPTvSAi1
|
Will Iowa Hawkeye's women make the Final Four in the women's NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament
|
Elite 8 round is March 31 and April 1st
I don't take positions in my own markets
|
2023-12-28T11:55:56
|
2024-04-02T16:26:25
|
2024-04-02T16:26:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yrhOcdrhjhfU4JNIwqyq
|
Will "Mean Girls" (2024) have >65% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes 2 weeks after release?
|
"Mean Girls" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024
I will use the "Tomatometer" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.
For reference, the original Mean Girls has a Tomatometer score of 84%, similar to the recent Wonka musical with 83%.
After 2 weeks post-release, I don't expect the score to be shifting much, so resolution should be straightforward. Just in case, my plan is to check the score on the morning of January 26th (around ~9AM PST) and resolve based on the score at that moment. But I can't promise exactly when I'll check & resolve the market. (AFAIK, you can't easily find the "RT score as of a specific time", so it's safer to just say I'll resolve based on "the score I see when I check RT on that day").
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image]
|
2023-12-28T11:10:31
|
2024-01-26T08:27:03
|
2024-01-26T08:27:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KDGJ1HSOZ3CTuygU0nmL
|
Will Waymo be fully deployed in LA by the end of 2024?
|
Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024. In the 9 months after that, before the end of the year, will you be able to book a ride?
Criteria:
Allow anyone downloading the app to book a ride in LA without a waitlist or invite codes by December 31st, 2024.
An announcement doesn't count, you have to be able to book a ride.
There has to be significant deployment of cars and service areas covering large parts of LA, so one could reasonably expect to get a ride i.e. an LA equivalent of Zoox's testing within Foster City wouldn't count as a full deployment, you should be able to go a reasonable distance such as between most or all of it's testing areas; Santa Monica; Century City; WeHo; Mid City; K-Town and DTLA.
|
2023-12-28T11:05:53
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:18:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KMIHjJqhNCT8USTHGvyL
|
Will Waymo work on highways in 2024?
|
Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city. It just started to do pickup and drop-offs at select Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport terminals and covers 225 sq miles in Phoenix.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024.
Criteria:
Allow anyone with access to Waymo to take a ride on the highway by December 31st, 2024 (so excluding trusted testers, staff etc)
An announcement doesn't count, you have to be able to book a ride that uses a highway.
|
2023-12-28T11:05:23
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:18:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WcqebxNSN1iUQzc6D4zW
|
Will "sign in with OpenAI" start being offered as an authentication option for other websites/app before June 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-28T06:34:59
|
2024-06-01T00:01:30
|
2024-06-01T00:01:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kxf95o2EtDgKFKSBrNkR
|
Will Donald Trump receive more than 46.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?
|
I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or is found to be ineligible before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-51)
|
2023-12-28T06:32:34
|
2024-11-07T08:22:33
|
2024-11-07T08:22:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7bjPMsBhDWXsn3EZo9Wf
|
Will Joe Biden receive more than 50.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?
|
I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-51)
|
2023-12-28T05:31:37
|
2024-07-21T16:05:19
|
2024-07-21T16:05:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UNtVjNgLX1UDI2BOLGNj
|
Will Waymo work on highways in 2024?
|
Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city. It just started to do pickup and drop-offs at select Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport terminals and covers 225 sq miles in Phoenix.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024.
Criteria:
Allow anyone with access to Waymo to take a ride on the highway by December 31st, 2024 (so excluding trusted testers, staff etc)
An announcement doesn't count, you have to be able to book a ride that uses a highway.
|
2023-12-28T05:02:31
|
2024-12-31T15:00:00
|
2025-01-01T16:17:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pnTPl7tV1RPOUSD3XCsy
|
Will Waymo be fully deployed in LA by the end of 2024?
|
Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024. In the 9 months after that, before the end of the year, will you be able to book a ride?
Criteria:
Allow anyone downloading the app to book a ride in LA without a waitlist or invite codes by December 31st, 2024.
An announcement doesn't count, you have to be able to book a ride.
There has to be significant deployment of cars and service areas covering large parts of LA, so one could reasonably expect to get a ride i.e. an LA equivalent of Zoox's testing within Foster City wouldn't count as a full deployment, you should be able to go a reasonable distance such as between most or all of it's testing areas; Santa Monica; Century City; WeHo; Mid City; K-Town and DTLA.
|
2023-12-28T04:57:44
|
2024-09-30T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:17:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lgrAgoet5uokMhcWPleE
|
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of March 2024?
|
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current rate (28 Dec 2023) is around 90.5 against the USD (the higher the rate, the weaker the Ruble).
|
2023-12-28T02:00:22
|
2024-04-01T14:59:00
|
2024-04-02T06:00:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7hkajCQWqgw3SkQzXyu1
|
Will Lauren Boebert be the Republican nominee in CO-04?
|
This question closes as YES if Lauren Boebert wins the Repulican nomination for Colorado's 4th congressional district in 2024. Otherwise this question closes as NO.
|
2023-12-27T21:03:36
|
2024-06-26T05:09:42
|
2024-06-26T05:09:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R9PFftnE7yLU1XZMt9Zz
|
Will Biden host a Middle East Peace Summit at Camp David during 2024?
|
Nearly every president of my lifetime has done their variation of the Camp David Peace Accords. Will Biden carry on the tradition?
|
2023-12-27T19:56:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:25:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rch9nFG4gLoTzQiXX9aL
|
Will recreational cannabis be federally legalized in the United States by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T18:23:45
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-13T06:33:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-stvnXYgIkXNpfa6ok2hz
|
Will there be a Russian - American prisoner swap in 2024? 🇷🇺🇺🇸🤝
|
Russia is holding a couple of Americans whom the US State department says have been wrongfully detained including: Paul Whelan (since ‘18) and Evan Gershkovich (since March).
In 2022, Russia swapped Brittney Griner for Victor Bout. Will there be another prisoner swap between Russia and the US in 2024?
For this to count, the jailed American must be on US (or allied) soil before the end of 2024. The released American doesn’t necessarily need to be Evan or Paul either.
|
2023-12-27T18:11:18
|
2024-08-01T10:18:32
|
2024-08-01T10:18:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P6FybqLjuX2ol1VBFNRe
|
Will Joe Biden receive more than 51.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election?
|
I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related questions
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-donald-trump-receive-more-than):
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-50)
|
2023-12-27T18:08:11
|
2024-07-21T16:05:00
|
2024-07-21T16:05:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DBGTiVy0dqrLZ98WKBnO
|
Will Liverpool beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Jan 1, 2024? - Premier League
|
⚽ Liverpool vs Newcastle
📅 Date: Monday, January 1, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Newcastle has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-12-27T16:01:36
|
2024-01-01T15:00:00
|
2024-01-01T15:01:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-34G92ssg1PtRsP59caP1
|
Will NIKE (NKE) Stock reach $120 until end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T13:41:28
|
2024-01-03T14:59:00
|
2024-01-04T11:07:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UV3Zbi0nuELWg3R7TAvn
|
In 2024 will the Supreme Court of the United States hear any cases involving OpenAI and/or Anthropic?
|
https://twitter.com/CFGeek/status/1740048191352143964
|
2023-12-27T13:15:46
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-24T13:34:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LgbMtrprovzrZ8LNt9Ig
|
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025?
|
Inspired by this market.
If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the de facto military and one of the most prominent political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action.
|
2023-12-27T11:43:47
|
2024-09-29T16:40:36
|
2024-09-29T16:40:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lhqGgAv8q9NQSmfmwZpD
|
Has Ukraine been operating Western F-16s as of December 27th, 2023?
|
This article lays out the question nicely: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-russia-fighter-jets-crimea-su34-1855709
Will resolve yes if Ukraine or American sources confirm it. Will resolve no if the fighters are delivered with much fanfare at a later date.
|
2023-12-27T10:45:01
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-03-25T18:09:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l17Fhy7bTdYaR384Lsvb
|
Will Canada implement universal basic income by January 21 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T08:30:59
|
2024-01-21T20:59:00
|
2024-01-27T16:36:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iqt6y9MpJHoX10xaStR0
|
Will Destiny play a game on stream for 3 hours before January 22nd? (excluding browser games)
|
Destiny has barely played any games on stream since he's been on those ADHD meds. Resolves yes if he spends at least 3 hours on any single game before this market closes, as long as that game is not played in a browser.
Only time played on stream counts.
If the game is running in the background but he is not interacting with it for a substantial amount of time, then that time won't count towards the total.
He doesn't have to play 3 hours continuously! His total time in one single game has to add up 3 hours.
|
2023-12-27T07:04:51
|
2024-01-21T21:00:00
|
2024-01-21T22:12:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X2cxMPhT84ucJUcApoiS
|
Will Jimmy Carter survive the Spring?
|
Spring is March 19 to June 20
|
2023-12-27T05:00:05
|
2024-06-20T20:59:00
|
2024-06-24T02:58:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UzvbkuU4lZTHwWROQOgn
|
[1K subsidy]Will the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro that is hosted by Lex Friedman be published in January 2024?
|
It doesn’t matter if it happened in January, the video need to be posted in the channel.
If it’s live-streamed on Lex’s channel or destiny’s that also counts .
Related market: https://manifold.markets/Kabose/will-hasan-react-to-the-ben-shapiro?r=S2Fib3Nl
|
2023-12-27T04:38:44
|
2024-01-23T09:04:53
|
2024-01-23T09:04:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rElWdIfunTD9SBeekAf8
|
Will Harvard President Gay either be fired or resign by 2/1/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T04:11:15
|
2024-01-02T10:51:58
|
2024-01-02T10:51:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XQBDvCHJIUPCAZyK94ra
|
Will Joe Flacco beat the Ravens in the 2023 NFL Playoffs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T02:21:12
|
2024-01-13T18:43:09
|
2024-01-13T18:43:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zhllbUQGXE8CAGIbfAwW
|
Will ByteDance Ltd spin TikTok off through IPO by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T00:33:51
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-09T11:53:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S4JBaS7PnJakAys9X35C
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl LVIII?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-27T00:05:45
|
2024-01-28T15:24:48
|
2024-01-28T15:24:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-w3nRvbNX3CuyG7CTrAgN
|
Will Destiny be unbanned on twitch in January 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-26T23:49:13
|
2024-02-01T23:59:00
|
2024-03-27T13:13:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fZmtwX86LuwqICL4apnD
|
Will a monthly value of Carbon Dioxide in March 2024 be above 423 ppm?
|
Resolution based on the value of "Latest measurement" of monthly data for February 2024, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ . Any value above 423, excluding 423 is resolved as Yes.
Current value: 420 ppm, November 2023.
Daily values are here:
[image][image]https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html here are daily values from that observatory
|
2023-12-26T23:07:59
|
2024-04-08T04:50:45
|
2024-04-08T04:50:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FavbiO5Rg7dDkc97RzAt
|
Will the Detroit Pistons finish December without a win?
|
The Pistons took over the all-time losing streak in a single season with 27 losses against the Nets on the 26th. This streak saw them go winless in November and could see them repeat that feat in December.
They play the best record in the East in the Celtics on the road on the 28th, followed up by the lowly Raptors at home on the 30th.
Will they lose these next two games and go winless in December?
Yes - Lose to both the Celtics and Raptors
No - Win against either team
N/A - Neither game is played, thus they will have already finished December winless
|
2023-12-26T20:41:14
|
2023-12-30T17:38:27
|
2023-12-30T17:38:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VNrMZlLolKBmXpeMEZxI
|
Major news about Chinese human genetic engineering before 2025?
|
Somewhat subjective what counts as "major" so I won't bet. Does not have to be CCP-approved. The HIV thing from a few years ago would count, obviously. The main thing that affects how this resolves is whether or not the thing is (heavily, not minutely) reported in the Western press, not whether or not I think it should be.
|
2023-12-26T19:46:19
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:44:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kfg0A95aYIDtr9QCn2Zb
|
Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2024?
|
Introduction: For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.
This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2024, from the creation date of this question.
This will resolve to NO if no school shooting occurs in the US with four fatal victims or more.
(The perpetrator will not be counted as a victim.)
|
2023-12-26T18:38:29
|
2024-09-04T12:35:51
|
2024-09-04T12:35:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oq51KBobj1bI7YFjMQYo
|
Will Apple end "green bubble" texts in 2024?
|
"Messaging has been a key part of Apple’s strategy to sell more iPhones. For years, it has made exchanges between iPhones and Android devices as basic as the texts between decades-old flip phones. Texts between iPhone users appear in blue and can be tapped to give a thumbs up, but texts with Android users appear in green and have no simple perks." (link)
Apple has promised to adopt the RCS standard (rich multimedia texts) to streamline texting between IOS and Android phones, but said nothing about getting rid of the infamous green bubbles. Recently, Apple blocked an app that allowed users to sidestep this feature, triggering an inquiry from US senators.
Will the green bubbles go away in 2024? At end of the year, I will resolve based on whether American customers on the latest IOS and the latest iPhone hardware will be able to communicate with Android contacts without the green bubble.
|
2023-12-26T18:19:12
|
2024-09-28T16:46:24
|
2024-09-28T16:46:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3SGFs2cDjXcV2ctf7NYY
|
California Forever new city ballot measure passes in Solano County
|
The group California Forever wants to build a new city in Solano County, in the San Francisco Bay Area. This market resolves to YES if the group qualifies a ballot measure for the November 2024 ballot for Solano County, and if the measure passes.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/tech-billionaires-city-solano-18539936.php
|
2023-12-26T14:46:11
|
2024-08-16T17:41:16
|
2024-08-16T17:41:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H4vKQl8mI3QL2wgW2NLu
|
Will Valerii Zaluzhnyi still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2025?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
[image]related:
[markets]
|
2023-12-26T14:39:55
|
2024-02-08T12:15:20
|
2024-02-08T12:15:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N96XISoQnmK8nCAeqmki
|
Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024?
|
Jimmy Carter is currently 99 years old and is currently in hospice care as of November 2023.
|
2023-12-26T13:09:13
|
2024-12-29T13:41:39
|
2024-12-30T11:37:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fS5Y0XZiYQZY8OGDW6lk
|
Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024?
|
Since the 1980s, there have been numerous presidential resignations in different Latin American countries. For example, Argentine president de la Rúa resigned in 2001 in the face of a political crisis.
Although Javier Milei won the 2023 elections with the majority of votes, his real agenda may not be as popular in reality as it was in the election debates. These policies could trigger an acute political crisis at any time, and so Milei would have only a few options, resignation or repression.
Article about the history of president resignation in LatAm
http://socialsciences.scielo.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S0046-001X2006000100005
|
2023-12-26T11:59:42
|
2024-10-15T16:34:05
|
2024-10-15T16:34:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-096HIAtcBLIEsWFHxCLU
|
Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES if credible media reports that Apple has resumed advertising on X. This will also resolve YES if multiple credible users publically report that they see ads for Apple on X.
This market will resolve NO if on July 1st, the conditions for YES are not met.
|
2023-12-26T11:04:47
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-03T06:59:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JSdVEejrLehONfH5kIFp
|
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
|
The following excerpt is taken from the information, and I wonder if this will come true in 2024:
Interestingly, the same Bloomberg report said OpenAI is talking to Abu Dhabi firm G42about raising billions of dollars for an AI server chip venture. That would require the startup to either find new talent or make an acquisition to jump start the project. Needless to say, next year is sure to bring oodles more action in the AI chip world.
Resolves yes if OpenAI invests in, creates, or acquires an AI chip entity in 2024.
|
2023-12-26T10:50:17
|
2024-12-31T13:41:56
|
2024-12-31T13:42:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P5Sz0oKfuO8ulZnYw6a5
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Cowboys win
No - Lions win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-12-26T09:36:46
|
2023-12-30T20:21:36
|
2023-12-30T20:21:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Q8KfEjOurJlRjIUH2h7E
|
Will bitcoin pass $45,000 before the end of 2023
|
Will the value of bitcoin displayed by the Google Market Summary surpass $45,000 per coin before January 1st of 2024?
|
2023-12-26T09:34:20
|
2024-01-01T20:53:41
|
2024-01-01T20:53:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-96HbrGjWHlDxwWtO1BL5
|
Will Arsenal beat Porto across 2 legs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-26T08:52:51
|
2024-03-12T17:00:00
|
2024-03-13T09:56:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qy2rwIlgiSctK0JsYU5Z
|
Will Bayern Munich beat Lazio across 2 legs?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-26T08:51:17
|
2024-03-05T16:00:00
|
2024-03-13T09:57:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JAJoEt7473oRDG4Za5qu
|
Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus?
|
Closes when results clear. Likely 1-2 days after polling date or by 30 days.
|
2023-12-26T08:18:06
|
2024-01-16T07:58:27
|
2024-01-16T07:58:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mqQYeeY0LJF1SR6YHEiM
|
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
|
I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at any point in 2024 and keep it for a full week
[image]
|
2023-12-26T06:27:53
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:09:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ueFp56Qw412x7NXR0KS
|
Will iOS 18 introduce big improvements to Siri, making it similar to ChatGPT?
|
Will iOS 18 introduce big improvements to Siri and have similar capabilities as ChatGPT while keeping the same system integration that Siri currently has?
All devices supporting iOS 18 need to have at least the basic capabilities of the new Siri.
The update needs to be announced at WWDC 2024.
|
2023-12-26T06:20:52
|
2024-06-10T09:59:00
|
2024-06-10T11:50:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oml41UMLfBnCRyg53Cli
|
☠️ Will More Than 650 Mass Shootings Occur Within The United States In 2024?
|
Will More Than 650 Mass Shootings Occur Within The United States In 2024?
Current Tracking Source
Source For Past Results
2023: 659(revised)
2022: 644
2021: 689
2020: 611
2019: 414
2018: 335
Resolves Yes If Over 650
Resolve No If 650 Or Under
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
|
2023-12-26T01:38:44
|
2024-12-31T17:00:00
|
2024-12-31T17:38:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C2317pvvCPXEjVNkLxza
|
Will Dune: Part Two make over 500 million dollars at the worldwide box office?
|
Re-releases don't count
See also for 600 million:
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-600-mi
|
2023-12-25T20:22:53
|
2024-03-21T09:35:43
|
2024-03-21T09:35:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DblItRPnHNj5EtPH12OA
|
Will Sweden join NATO before the next Bitcoin halving?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-25T19:13:35
|
2024-03-07T09:26:30
|
2024-03-07T09:26:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Tz4IFkVeUlTd9GTDOOrG
|
Will Sweden Join NATO before Elden Ring's first DLC releases?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-25T19:08:28
|
2024-03-07T09:15:44
|
2024-03-07T09:15:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aeC8ZZpZon8pDmHPuKZj
|
Will a portion of the Epstein client list be released by the end of 2024?
|
if more than one name of the Epstein client list is revealed through official means or leaked (but verified by official sources) by the end of 2024 on December 31st
|
2023-12-25T12:54:51
|
2024-01-04T09:13:36
|
2024-01-04T09:13:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8s4fWCzAtfctBs2RkB7f
|
Will NYC have a white Christmas in 2024? New York City ❄️🎄
|
Resolves YES if there is ANY existing snow on the ground or ANY snowfall hail or sleet within New York City limits on December 24 or December 25, 2024, even if it melts.
|
2023-12-25T12:00:52
|
2024-12-26T23:59:00
|
2024-12-27T14:46:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C3RfAM2MloM2RbS2Rsng
|
Will Tesla deliver more than 5000 Cybertrucks in 2024?
|
Market will remain open until we know clearly how many were delivered.
|
2023-12-25T11:55:09
|
2024-07-07T23:49:27
|
2024-07-07T23:49:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6h5I2Lm0ngG2rdccyjOz
|
Will there be a gpt-4 quality LLM with distributed inference by the end of 2024?
|
The model has a Elo greater than 1190 on ChatbotArena (or if ChatbotArena is no longer available/updating, achieves GPT 4 (03.14) equivalent or greater performance on both MMLU and MT-Bench)
When running inference in a geographically distributed fashion (the computational hardware is not colocated, and is networked over typical consumer equipment)
on heterogeneous hardware (the computational hardware is varied in type, e.g. different GPU models)
without the act of distributed inference causing the model to require 2 OOM more energy usage (e.g. if doing so Is incredibly lossy and inefficient, it does not count. The burden of proof lies on anyone claiming this clause should be activated)
Note: if (or, when) an edge case is presented, it's applicability to this question will be evaluated in mine + Robert's understanding of the spirit of the question.
|
2023-12-25T11:29:33
|
2025-01-01T19:26:10
|
2025-01-01T19:26:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QJYH6xXWXqRScQ3gwHqK
|
Will Claudine Gay remain Harvard’s president through Monday, 1/8/2024?
|
Announcement of future resignation counts
@/Traveel/will-claudine-gay-remain-harvards-p
^^^Based on this upstream prediction, but a shorter time limit:
|
2023-12-25T11:26:00
|
2024-01-02T12:13:58
|
2024-01-02T12:13:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nMKJK0xLRfqMZ8Bci5lI
|
Will the S&P 500 reach a new all-time high in 2024?
|
If the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time (greater than 4,818.62) high in 2024 this resolves to yes.
|
2023-12-25T10:15:17
|
2024-01-19T13:56:22
|
2024-01-19T13:56:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m12RKXVgkmgTTxt6fXMb
|
Will 2024 be the hottest year in the last 25 years
|
Yes if the avg temp is higher than the previous 25years
|
2023-12-25T10:05:17
|
2025-01-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:21:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-an9Boc3xsIwERAdUiusW
|
Will Marianne Williamson win more than 7 delegates in the 2024 presidential primaries?
|
Fun fact: Marianne Williamson is the only politician I’ve ever donated money to, and I did it twice.
At the 2024 Democratic National Convention, will Marianne Williamson have more than 7 delegates pledged (i.e. >=8)?
In 2020, the total delegate split was as follows:
[image]For the record, New Hampshire does allocate based on percentages, which in 2020 was as follows:
Sanders - 9
Buttigieg - 9
Klobuchar - 6
Will Marianne’s 2nd run for president be more successful than the first, earning her at least 8 pledged delegates?
|
2023-12-25T08:49:06
|
2024-02-07T19:01:36
|
2024-02-07T19:01:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Si9PEqgIWPna5CA0Rt3x
|
Will Destiny talk to DJ Akademiks in 2024?
|
It has to be a real conversation, them just tweeting at each other wouldn't be enough.
There doesn't need to be any public recording of it as long as there is other evidence that they did indeed talk to each other.
|
2023-12-25T06:44:17
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T04:26:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0KcCrglRzcat8gD9ots3
|
Will a bitcoin cycle top occur around January 10, 2024?
|
Many technical indicators, events such as potential ETF approvals, monthly patterns such as the known beginning-of-month rises, outstanding performance on January 1 in 2014, 2017, and 2023, and long-term patterns such as the 2019 bubble, are lining up for a cycle top in bitcoin in early January.
This market will resolve to YES if the top of this bitcoin bubble cycle occurs around the date that the ETF approvals are expected.
Specifically, the highest price between January 3, 2024 and January 17, 2024 ($49,102) must be higher than the highest price between March 3, 2024 and March 17, 2024.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-12-25T06:24:50
|
2024-03-03T04:09:48
|
2024-03-03T04:09:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NBZN55xUyYv9PVb0eMWW
|
Will it snow in New York during the winter of 2023-2024?
|
It has been more than 700 days since accumulating snow fell in several US East Coast cities. No snow has yet fallen this winter, and little usually falls during El Nino years.
This market will resolve to YES if accumulating snow is recorded in New York's Central Park before June 1, 2024. A trace of snow is not defined as accumulating, and therefore is insufficient for this market to resolve to YES. Sleet and freezing rain are also insufficient.
Otherwise, the market will resolve to NO. It will resolve to N/A if data stops being reported from Central Park.
|
2023-12-25T06:14:58
|
2024-01-06T18:48:17
|
2024-01-06T18:48:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr
|
10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated]
|
Full title of the prediction here: 10. At least one U.S. court will rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. The issue will begin working its way up to the U.S. Supreme Court.
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
A significant and underappreciated legal risk looms over the entire field of generative artificial intelligence today: the world’s leading generative AI models have been trained on troves of copyrighted content, a fact that could trigger massive liability and transform the economics of the industry.
Whether it is poetry from GPT-4 or Claude 2, images from DALL-E 3 or Midjourney, or videos from Pika or Runway, generative AI models are able to produce breathtakingly sophisticated output because they have been trained on much of the world’s digital data. For the most part, AI companies have pulled this data off the internet free of charge and used it at will to develop their models.
But do the millions of individuals who actually created all that intellectual property in the first place—the humans who wrote the books, penned the poetry, took the photographs, drew the paintings, filmed the videos—have a say over whether and how it is used by AI practitioners? Do they have a right to some of the value created by the AI models that result?
The answers to these questions will hinge on courts’ interpretation of a key legal concept known as “fair use”. Fair use is a well-developed legal doctrine that has been around for centuries. But its application to the nascent field of generative AI creates complex new theoretical questions without clear answers.
“People in machine learning aren’t necessarily aware of the nuances of fair use and, at the same time, the courts have ruled that certain high-profile real-world examples are not protected fair use, yet those very same examples look like things AI is putting out,” said Stanford researcher Peter Henderson. “There’s uncertainty about how lawsuits will come out in this area.”
How will these questions get resolved? Through individual cases and court rulings.
Applying fair use doctrine to generative AI will be a complex undertaking requiring creative thinking and subjective judgment. Credible arguments and defensible conclusions will exist on both sides of the issue.
Thus, don’t be surprised to see at least one U.S. court next year rule that generative AI models like GPT-4 and Midjourney do represent copyright violations, and that the companies that built them are liable to the owners of the intellectual property on which the models were trained.
This will not resolve the issue. Other U.S. courts, in other jurisdictions, faced with different fact patterns, will in all likelihood reach the opposite conclusion: that generative AI models are protected by the fair use doctrine.
The issue will begin to work its way all the way up to the U.S. Supreme Court, which will eventually provide a conclusive legal resolution. (The path to the nation’s highest court is long and winding; don’t expect a Supreme Court ruling on this issue next year.)
In the meantime, plenty of litigation will ensue, plenty of settlements will be negotiated, and lawyers around the world will be kept busy navigating a patchwork of caselaw. Many billions of dollars will hang in the balance.
|
2023-12-25T05:43:08
|
2024-12-17T08:39:33
|
2024-12-17T08:39:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pFH25WfpIObivtRor29r
|
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
It is hard to imagine venture capitalists and technology leaders getting excited about anything other than AI right now. But a year is a long time, and VCs’ “convictions” can shift remarkably quickly.
Crypto is a cyclical industry. It is out of fashion right now, but make no mistake, another big bull run will come—as it did in 2021, and before that in 2017, and before that in 2013. In case you haven’t noticed, after starting the year under $17,000, the price of bitcoin has risen sharply in the past few months, from $25,000 in September to over $40,000 today. A major bitcoin upswing may be in the works, and if it is, plenty of crypto activity and hype will ensue.
A number of well-known venture capitalists, entrepreneurs and technologists who today position themselves as “all in” on AI were deeply committed to crypto during the 2021-2022 bull market. If crypto asset prices do come roaring back next year, expect some of them to follow the heat in that direction, just as they followed the heat to AI this year.
(Candidly, it would be a welcome development to see some of the excessive AI hype redirect elsewhere next year.)
|
2023-12-25T05:41:13
|
2024-12-17T08:41:04
|
2024-12-17T08:41:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RIekeZhDMR43ic6y7Nr8
|
8) The Microsoft/OpenAI relationship will begin to fray.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Microsoft and OpenAI are closely allied. Microsoft has poured over $10 billion into OpenAI to date. OpenAI’s models power key Microsoft products like Bing, GitHub Copilot and Office 365 Copilot. When OpenAI CEO Sam Altman was unexpectedly fired by the board last month, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella played an instrumental role in getting him reinstated.
Yet Microsoft and OpenAI are distinct organizations, with distinct ambitions and distinct long-term visions for the future of AI. The alliance has so far worked well for both groups, but it is a marriage of convenience. The two organizations are far from perfectly aligned.
Next year, we predict that cracks will begin to appear in the partnership between these two giants. Indeed, hints of future friction have already begun to surface.
As OpenAI looks to aggressively ramp up its enterprise business, it will find itself more and more often competing directly with Microsoft for customers. For its part, Microsoft has plenty of reasons to diversify beyond OpenAI as a supplier of cutting-edge AI models. Microsoft recently announced a deal to partner with OpenAI rival Cohere, for instance. Faced with the exorbitant costs of running OpenAI’s models at scale, Microsoft has also invested in internal AI research efforts on smaller language models like Phi-2.
Bigger picture, as AI becomes ever more powerful, important questions about AI safety, risk, regulation and public accountability will take center stage. The stakes will be high. Given their differing cultures, values and histories, it seems inevitable that the two organizations will diverge in their philosophies and approaches to these issues.
With a $2.7 trillion market capitalization, Microsoft is the second-largest company in the world. Yet the ambitions of OpenAI and its charismatic leader Sam Altman may be even more far-reaching. These two organizations serve each other well today. But don’t expect that to last forever.
|
2023-12-25T05:38:50
|
2024-12-17T08:41:15
|
2024-12-17T08:41:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4Pmjnk2MT301kTCTHjoL
|
6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Introduced in a seminal 2017 paper out of Google, the transformer architecture is the dominant paradigm in AI technology today. Every major generative AI model and product in existence—ChatGPT, Midjourney, GitHub Copilot and so on—is built using transformers.
But no technology remains dominant forever.
On the edges of the AI research community, a few groups have been hard at work developing novel, next-generation AI architectures that are superior to transformers in different ways.
One key hub of these efforts is Chris Ré’s lab at Stanford. The central theme of Ré and his students’ work has been to build a new model architecture that scales sub-quadratically with sequence length (rather than quadratically, as transformers do). Sub-quadratic scaling would enable AI models that are (1) less computationally intensive and (2) better able to process long sequences compared to transformers. Notable sub-quadratic model architectures out of Ré’s lab in recent years have included S4, Monarch Mixer and Hyena.
The most recent sub-quadratic architecture—and perhaps the most promising yet—is Mamba. Published just last month by two Ré protégés, Mamba has inspired tremendous buzz in the AI research community, with some commentators hailing it as “the end of transformers.”
Other efforts to build alternatives to the transformer architecture include liquid neural networks, developed at MIT, and Sakana AI, a new startup led by one of the co-inventors of the transformer.
Next year, we predict that one or more of these challenger architectures will break through and win real adoption, transitioning from a mere research novelty to a credible alternative AI approach used in production.
To be clear, we do not expect transformers to go away in 2024. They are a deeply entrenched technology on which the world’s most important AI systems are based. But we do predict that 2024 will be the year in which cutting-edge alternatives to the transformer become viable options for real-world AI use cases.
|
2023-12-25T05:35:59
|
2024-12-17T08:40:54
|
2024-12-17T08:40:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-12TcBlen2rTR2iKtvuoX
|
5) A number of Fortune 500 companies will create a new C-suite position: Chief AI Officer.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Artificial intelligence has shot to the top of the priority list for Fortune 500 companies this year, with boards and management teams across industries scrambling to figure out what this powerful new technology means for their businesses.
One tactic that we expect to become more common among large enterprises next year: appointing a “Chief AI Officer” to spearhead the organization’s AI initiatives.
We saw a similar trend play out during the rise of cloud computing a decade ago, with many organizations hiring “Chief Cloud Officers” to help them navigate the strategic implications of the cloud.
This trend will gain further momentum in the corporate world given a parallel trend already underway in government. President Biden’s recent executive order on AI requires every federal government agency to appoint a Chief AI Officer, meaning that over 400 new Chief AI Officers will be hired across the U.S. government in the coming months.
Naming a Chief AI Officer will become a popular way for companies to signal externally that they are serious about AI. Whether these roles will prove valuable over the long term is a different question. (How many Chief Cloud Officers are still around today?)
|
2023-12-25T05:35:15
|
2024-12-17T08:40:42
|
2024-12-17T08:40:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Kig4qgadnvGKbax38N80
|
4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
One important topic in AI discourse today is the debate around open-source and closed-source AI models. While most cutting-edge AI model developers—OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic, Cohere, among others—keep their most advanced models proprietary, a handful of companies including Meta and buzzy new startup Mistral have chosen to make their state-of-the-art model weights publicly available.
Today, the highest-performing foundation models (e.g., OpenAI’s GPT-4) are closed-source. But many open-source advocates argue that the performance gap between closed and open models is shrinking and that open models are on track to overtake closed models in performance, perhaps by next year. (This chart made the rounds recently.)
We disagree. We predict that the best closed models will continue to meaningfully outperform the best open models in 2024 (and beyond).
The state of the art in foundation model performance is a fast-moving frontier. Mistral recently boasted that it will open-source a GPT-4-level model sometime in 2024, a claim that has generated excitement in the open source community. But OpenAI released GPT-4 in early 2023. By the time Mistral comes out with this new model, it will likely be more than a year behind the curve. OpenAI may well have released GPT-4.5 or even GPT-5 by then, establishing an entirely new performance frontier. (Rumors have been circulating that GPT-4.5 may even drop before the end of 2023.)
As in many other domains, catching up to the frontier as a fast follower, after another group has defined it, is easier to achieve than establishing a new frontier before anyone else has shown it is possible. For instance, it was considerably riskier, more challenging and more expensive for OpenAI to build GPT-4 using a mixture-of-experts architecture, when this approach had not previously been shown to work at this scale, than it was for Mistral to follow in OpenAI’s footsteps several months later with its own mixture-of-experts model.
There is a basic structural reason to doubt that open models will leapfrog closed models in performance in 2024. The investment required to develop a new model that advances the state of the art is enormous, and will only continue to balloon for every step-change increase in model capabilities. Some industry observers estimate that OpenAI will spend around $2 billion to develop GPT-5.
Meta is a publicly traded company ultimately answerable to its shareholders. The company seems not to expect any direct revenue from its open-source model releases. Llama 2 reportedly cost Meta around $20 million to build; that level of investment may be justifiable, even without any associated revenue boost, given the strategic benefits. But is Meta really going to sink anywhere near $2 billion into the quest to build an AI model that outperforms anything else in existence, just to open-source it without any expectation for a concrete return on investment?
Upstarts like Mistral face a similar conundrum. There is no clear revenue model for open-source foundation models (as Stability AI has learned the hard way). Charging for hosting open-source models, for instance, becomes a race to the bottom on price, as we have seen in recent days with Mistral’s new Mixtral model. So—even if Mistral had access to the billions of dollars needed to build a new model that leapfrogged OpenAI—would it really choose to turn around and give that model away for free?
Our sneaking suspicion is that, as companies like Mistral invest ever greater sums to build ever more powerful AI models, they may end up relaxing their stance on open source and keeping their most advanced models proprietary so that they can charge for them.
(To be clear: this is not an argument against the merits of open-source AI. It is not an argument that open-source AI will not be important in the world of artificial intelligence going forward. On the contrary, we expect open-source models to play a critical role in the proliferation of AI in the years ahead. However: we predict that the most advanced AI systems, those that push forward the frontiers of what is possible in AI, will continue to be proprietary.)
|
2023-12-25T05:33:19
|
2024-12-17T08:39:52
|
2024-12-17T08:39:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ct75KHMKUlgWwRlyHie5
|
3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
In AI today, the phrase “large language model” (and its abbreviation LLM) are frequently used as shorthand for “any advanced AI model.” This is understandable, given that many of the original generative AI models to rise to prominence (e.g., GPT-3) were text-only models.
But as AI model types proliferate and as AI becomes increasingly multimodal, this term will become increasingly imprecise and unhelpful. The emergence of multimodal AI has been one of the defining themes in AI in 2023. Many of today’s leading generative AI models incorporate text, images, 3-D, audio, video, music, physical action and more. They are far more than just language models.
Consider an AI model that has been trained on the amino acid sequences and molecular structures of known proteins in order to generate de novo protein therapeutics. Though its underlying architecture is an extension of models like GPT-3, does it really make sense to call this a large language model?
Or consider foundation models in robotics: large generative models that combine visual and language input with general internet-scale knowledge in order to take actions in the real world, e.g. via a robotic arm. A richer term than “language model” should and will exist for such models. (“Vision-language-action,” or VLA, model is one alternative phrase that researchers have used.)
A similar point can be made about the FunSearch model recently published by DeepMind, which the authors themselves refer to as an LLM but which deals in mathematics rather than in natural language.
In 2024, as our models become increasingly multidimensional, so, too, will the terms that we use to describe them.
|
2023-12-25T05:32:06
|
2024-12-17T08:40:02
|
2024-12-17T08:40:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AzRHv5frA0Qotz3GXHjw
|
2) Stability AI will shut down.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
It is one of the AI world’s worst-kept secrets: once-high-flying startup Stability AI has been a slow-motion train wreck for much of 2023.
Stability is hemorrhaging talent. Departures in recent months include the company’s chief operating officer, chief people officer, VP engineering, VP product, VP applied machine learning, VP comms, head of research, head of audio and general counsel.
The two firms that led Stability’s high-profile $100 million financing round last year, Coatue and Lightspeed, have reportedly both stepped off the company’s board in recent months amid disputes with Stability CEO Emad Mostaque. The company tried and failed earlier this year to raise additional funds at a $4 billion valuation.
Next year, we predict the beleaguered company will buckle under the mounting pressure and shut down altogether.
Following pressure from investors, Stability has reportedly begun looking for an acquirer but so far has found little interest.
One thing Stability has going in its favor: the company recently raised $50 million from Intel, a cash infusion that will extend its runway. For Intel’s part, the investment seems to reflect a pressing desire to get a high-profile customer to commit to its new AI chips as it seeks to gain ground against competitor Nvidia.
But Stability has a notoriously high burn rate: at the time of the Intel investment in October, Stability was reportedly spending $8 million a month while bringing in a small fraction of that in revenue. At that rate, the $50 million investment won’t last through the end of 2024.
|
2023-12-25T05:24:39
|
2024-12-17T08:40:26
|
2024-12-17T08:40:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-neDVeUTthAH2EO8qflRc
|
1) Nvidia will dramatically ramp up its efforts to become a cloud provider.
|
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024's predictions.
I might bet in this market, as I have no power over the resolution.
Description of this prediction from the article:
Most organizations do not pay Nvidia directly for GPUs. Rather, they access GPUs via cloud providers like Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud Platform, which in turn buy chips in bulk from Nvidia.
But Amazon, Microsoft and Google—Nvidia’s largest customers—are fast becoming its competitors. Recognizing how much value in AI today accrues to the silicon layer (for evidence of this, look no further than Nvidia’s stock price), the major cloud providers are all investing heavily to develop their own homegrown AI chips, which will compete directly with Nvidia’s GPUs.
With the cloud providers looking to move down the technology stack to the silicon layer in order to capture more value, don’t be surprised to see Nvidia move in the opposite direction: offering its own cloud services and operating its own data centers in order to reduce its traditional reliance on the cloud companies for distribution.
Nvidia has already begun exploring this path, rolling out a new cloud service called DGX Cloud earlier this year. We predict that Nvidia will meaningfully ramp up this strategy next year.
|
2023-12-25T05:23:48
|
2024-12-17T08:40:14
|
2024-12-17T08:40:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1NmMlzrC5y6i3TGnVVZv
|
Will Trudeau still be prime minister by the end of 2024
|
Resolutions is self evident
|
2023-12-25T04:30:43
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-10T12:03:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ngjx69owML7OYsZ5XXgd
|
Will Russia control Krynky by the end of January 2024
|
understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves
Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight
No: no otherwise
|
2023-12-25T04:28:43
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-01T03:20:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZGDgt5NGBa5Id1h6k57f
|
By 2024-10-01, will ChatGPT Plus users be able to generate >=10 seconds of video?
|
i'm not betting on this market
if ChatGPT stops existing as a product => N/A
resolves based on state at market close time. if answer becomes "yes", that doesn't immediately trigger resolution. if, say, openai deploys this in August but rolls it back in September, and it stays off by 2024-10-01, that's a "no".
Video has to be generated from an OpenAI model. Not via calling an external API with code execution.
|
2023-12-25T02:35:36
|
2024-10-01T18:45:28
|
2024-10-01T18:45:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OrF7wr2jy0bxWknn6TJe
|
Will the Paris Olympics opening ceremony take place on the Seine river per the initial plan?
|
https://www.reuters.com/sports/france-prepared-change-plans-2024-olympics-opening-based-security-2023-12-20/
Because of the safety concerns related to hosting the opening ceremony in a non enclosed area like a stadium, Paris Olympics officials have shared that alternate plans exist for the opening ceremony.
The market will resolve as Yes if the opening ceremony takes place on the Seine river, with national teams positioned on separate boats, floating at least from Pont d’Austerlitz to Pont d‘Iéna.
Any other alternatives will resolve as No, even if teams float for example on a shorter section of the Seine river.
|
2023-12-25T02:21:43
|
2024-07-26T10:46:44
|
2024-07-26T10:46:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rLlCKbGtB8Hlo6sjJdYQ
|
Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024?
|
Will a meteorite physically harm someone or damage property on Earth at any point during 2024?
Examples include breaking multiple windows in an area, collapsing or partially collapsing any buildings, putting holes in roofs or walls, causing structural fires, damaging the electric grid or other critical infrastructure, causing barotrauma injuries, causing serious burns, permanent hearing or vision loss, causing an automobile accident or directly colliding with a car or plane in a way that causes damage, causing a tsunami which causes damage to someone or their property, killing or severely wounding a farm animal, destroying crops or cropland over a significant area, causing a food shortage or measurable drop in temperature associated with crop failure or cold-related deaths, causing local or global firestorms that affect the economy or quality of life of people in an obvious way, causing a city to be evacuated or abandoned, or killing any number of persons.
Explicitly not included are damage to meteorite-specific equipment incurred in their normal operating process (i.e. a sensor flash-blinded by a meteorite, damage to equipment in space, herein defined as being above Earth's Karman line, and the effects of non-rational mass hysteria over meteorites that are not a threat to that individual or their property.
Can be a ground impact, secondary projectile from a meteorite impact, airburst, impact against an aircraft, etc. Airborne slag from industrial explosions, stone projectiles from volcanic eruptions, or damage caused by human-made spacecraft are not included.
Resolves YES if there are credible reports of damages to human health or property besides the listed exceptions incurred from meteorite impact or atmospheric entry during 2024 as occurred most notably in Russia during 2013 and 1908, but also occurred in the US with confirmation in 2023 though with much less damage.
https://futurism.com/the-byte/experts-confirm-rock-punched-house-meteorite
as well as in 1954 with both injury and property damage:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Elizabeth_Fowler_Hodges
As well as on quite a few other occasions.
Resolves NO if there are no reports of such damage, or the reports are not credible, or the damage is covered under a listed exception, or the damage did not occur during 2024, or if the damage has no relation to the fall of the meteorite, or if the damage isn't severe enough to meaningfully inconvenience anyone (any penetrating damaging a structure is considered inconvenient automatically).
|
2023-12-25T00:45:36
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-27T16:14:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ptgs5T2wH567bjXGuXTR
|
Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) be rated at least 6.0 on IMDb one week after its U.S. release?
|
Resolves YES if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023) has an IMDb rating of 6.0 or higher at 11:59 PM UTC on Friday, Dec 29, 2023.
Resolves NO if the rating is below 6.0 at that time.
IMDb page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9663764/
|
2023-12-24T23:33:14
|
2023-12-29T15:59:00
|
2023-12-29T15:59:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n8GuJvmX4HgNRH51IVLW
|
Will Michael Reeves upload before April 11, 2024?
|
https://www.youtube.com/@MichaelReeves - notoriously quirky with his upload schedule - published his latest video on the 11th of April, 2023. Will his next video come before the one year anniversary of the last?
A few interesting points to mention:
If you look at his posting history, has a bit of a tendency to upload more at the start of each year before leaving the platform again 'till the next.
A quick Google search and I found a Reddit thread talking about his upload schedule. At that time, he hadn't posted in 11 months.
This seems like a very simple question to answer, but if anybody would like to clarify some additional information I'm more than happy to hear you out.
|
2023-12-24T21:14:30
|
2024-04-13T02:08:41
|
2024-04-13T02:08:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IzpNEywe9njj90Y6zqih
|
Will April 2024 be the hottest April on record?
|
Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2023-12-24T19:23:23
|
2024-05-01T20:59:00
|
2024-05-14T09:12:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sTIuYkVuCAK5hNz9pMaJ
|
Will the Bridges podcast have Ethan Klein as a guest in 2024?
|
This question will resolve NO on 2025-01-01 if Ethan Klein does not make an appearance on the Bridges podcast, and will resolve YES if he does.
|
2023-12-24T17:12:42
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-06T10:39:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qS0ifz8gBQS06Hr4Qd4I
|
Will the 2024 AIME get leaked?
|
resolve yes if either aime i or aime ii gets leaked
|
2023-12-24T14:35:43
|
2024-02-04T18:43:42
|
2024-02-04T18:43:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-knqkgEsEBCg7z8b2kjLz
|
Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2025?
|
Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haunted_Chocolatier
|
2023-12-24T12:25:01
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:52:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g9i9Em2VeH80Mz59Bzbb
|
Will Sweden Join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $50K again?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-24T11:27:14
|
2024-02-12T09:36:53
|
2024-02-12T09:36:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dWj7KTMNGAKjFJKiiUVc
|
Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-24T11:25:26
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:12:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL
|
Will Apple’s next iPhone (2024) include an on-device LLM “ChatBot”?
|
I've seen rumors that Apple might be working on local on-device LLMs for iPhones. I wonder if this is true. The market will resolve "yes" if Apple's new device features an on-device conversational LLM. It would suffice if the LLM is a combination of on-device and cloud-based processing.
|
2023-12-24T11:15:19
|
2024-09-13T01:00:00
|
2024-09-13T02:13:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pC0wTePMLGDhneQ91fwy
|
Will the release of Gemini Ultra trigger a surge of public panic and government concern around AI?
|
As per discussion around here: https://twitter.com/ohabryka/status/1738770505577197595
Alyssa Vance (Aug 29): Like GPT-4, Google's Gemini will, predictably, trigger a surge of public and government concern about advanced AI. It's good to prepare plans in advance so they can be launched in December or January
John Pressman (Dec 22): The prediction was a renewed wave of AI panic due to Gemini in December/January, I feel fairly confident saying that's not on the table except in so far as AI doomers are willing to hype anything that happens regardless if it scares people more.
Oliver Habryka (Dec 23): I agree that it's unlikely, though curious about your probabilities. I assign 10%-20% chance that the full Gemini does indeed come out in January and that we will see a large reaction to it (Polymarket is at 78% that it will be released before end of January).
This will resolve 60 days after the public gets access to Gemini Ultra, or earlier (without bothering to poll) if the answer is clear. If it is unclear, 60 days after release I will poll.
Resolves to YES if, by judgment of a YES/NO Twitter poll, Gemini Ultra did trigger a surge of panic and concern.
Resolves to NO if the poll says it didn't.
Resolves to N/A if Gemini Ultra is not released by August 1, 2024, but deadline will be extended until then if it is delayed.
|
2023-12-24T08:21:55
|
2024-04-30T20:59:00
|
2024-05-01T03:34:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0h4EvzHmjDiRoww9sk1Z
|
Will Alby Browser Extension hit 1,000⭐ stars on Github in 2024?
|
The Bitcoin Lightning Browser extension by Alby is an open-source tool that helps you seamlessly operate within lightning ecosystem in web. Will it hit 1,000 stars on Github in 2024?
https://getalby.com/
https://github.com/getAlby/lightning-browser-extension
https://star-history.com/#getAlby/lightning-browser-extension&Date
[image]
|
2023-12-24T05:58:18
|
2024-12-30T21:59:00
|
2025-01-26T16:37:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8t2yTinyAcBvCZy3csIQ
|
Will X (fka Twitter) come public in 2024 under the "X" stock ticker?
|
Come public means that it trades on a public stock exchange and it must use the
"X" stock ticker to resolve to "yes."
|
2023-12-24T04:51:08
|
2024-12-31T12:00:55
|
2024-12-31T12:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fswBEzWGQY1h8sjmuByw
|
Will hollow knight: silksong release before march 1 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-24T02:44:55
|
2024-03-01T04:59:00
|
2024-03-01T14:50:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u5mXIFAZNOb1Hwb0624o
|
🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches in 2024?
|
🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches in 2024?
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
LAUNCH COUNT
January: 10
February: 9
March: 13
April: 12
May: 14
June: 11
July: 5
August: 12
September: 9
October: TBD
November: TBD
December: TBD
TOTAL: 95
NOTES:
Monthly SpaceX Launch Markets
CLARIFICATIONS:
1/06/2023: On the manifest you will see 3 colors: Green is Successful, Orange is Partial Failure, Red is Failure.
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
120 Target Market
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-spacex-achieve-120-successful)[tweet]
|
2023-12-24T01:16:43
|
2024-10-23T16:26:16
|
2024-10-23T16:26:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-srCLapMVA3DhaD6Aba4W
|
Will Taylor Swift announce she is pregnant in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if Taylor Swift announces she is pregnant or has a baby in 2024.
|
2023-12-24T00:45:05
|
2025-01-01T08:19:04
|
2025-01-01T08:19:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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