id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-T58z1Wq5KDOxYUyHX6oE | Will Hamas surrender in 2024? | Surrender = Formal acknowledgment of defeat & cessation of all military activities against Israel | 2023-12-28T22:15:14 | 2024-12-31T15:49:20 | 2024-12-31T15:49:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Noix6EKZN6WlYXvDeSz | Will multiple nuclear weapons be detonated during 2024? | Including tests and accidents. Multiple >1. | 2023-12-28T21:35:40 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:08:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-spfL8U1bO9fB4qNOnJvw | Will a third state ban Trump from the ballot for insurrection before the issue is moot or decided nationally? | As of today, two states, Colorado and Maine, have banned Trump from running for president, based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
https://apnews.com/article/maine-trump-presidential-ballot-election-insurrection-081fd38ce1f20be9b8423cb2f8c66dee
This market resolves YES if any other state finds that Trump is inelig... | 2023-12-28T20:48:40 | 2024-02-28T19:29:30 | 2024-02-28T19:29:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eawymacHhCXODeRPgJxl | Will the Detroit Pistons break the all-time longest losing streak against the Toronto Raptors? | The Pistons extended the all-time losing streak in a single season with 28 losses against the Celtics on the 28th. However, this tied them up with the all-time losing streak in the regular season, with the Philadelphia 76ers losing 28 straight games to end the 2014-15 season and start the 2015-16 season.
Heading back ... | 2023-12-28T20:32:49 | 2023-12-30T17:38:43 | 2023-12-30T17:38:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DlCVBJZA5OUz0uN40sCc | Do lawmakers still make laws? 🏛️👩⚖️👨⚖️ | Congress has been uniquely inefficient in its 118th session, with the current divided government only passing only 31 laws in the first half of the two-year session (see older data below).
Will Congress pass 60 laws by the end of its 118th session?
Data (numbers visible in the “Laws” tab)
118th [‘23-‘24; divided] -... | 2023-12-28T20:18:26 | 2024-12-14T12:30:06 | 2024-12-14T12:30:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dpaawDugSihdsjG7Heah | 🛑⚔️ Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024? | Will There Be A Lasting, Formal, Bi-laterally Signed Ceasefire In The 2023 Israel–Hamas War By End Of 2024?
For This Market To Resolve YES, All Of The Terms In The Question And Their Meaning Posted Below Must Be Met. This Market Will Close At 5pm EST December 31st 2024 [11:59 PM (GMT +3)]
For This Market These Terms... | 2023-12-28T15:58:34 | 2024-12-31T14:00:00 | 2024-12-31T15:02:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nPDarEIpjd2sOyQoNNhJ | Will Bitcoin hit $80K before Sweden joins NATO? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-28T15:35:06 | 2024-03-07T09:16:00 | 2024-03-07T09:16:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xEA5ZHSziE0Oi9Qjl9sb | Will Oppenheimer win for best picture in the 2024 Academy Awards? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-28T15:27:19 | 2024-03-11T20:21:39 | 2024-03-11T20:21:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UgDySInslzxKjUX9hB1x | Will May 2024 be the hottest May on record? | Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report, which is usually released during the following month
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/ | 2023-12-28T13:06:36 | 2024-06-01T20:59:00 | 2024-06-14T07:34:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yuyOdH3DN5RgAPTvSAi1 | Will Iowa Hawkeye's women make the Final Four in the women's NCAA March Madness Basketball Tournament | Elite 8 round is March 31 and April 1st
I don't take positions in my own markets | 2023-12-28T11:55:56 | 2024-04-02T16:26:25 | 2024-04-02T16:26:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yrhOcdrhjhfU4JNIwqyq | Will "Mean Girls" (2024) have >65% critics score on Rotten Tomatoes 2 weeks after release? | "Mean Girls" (2024) Rotten Tomatoes page: https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/mean_girls_2024
I will use the "Tomatometer" score (i.e. critics, not audience). If it lists 66% or above (however RT chooses to round) this market resolves YES. If 65% or below, this market resolves NO.
For reference, the original Mean Girls ... | 2023-12-28T11:10:31 | 2024-01-26T08:27:03 | 2024-01-26T08:27:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KDGJ1HSOZ3CTuygU0nmL | Will Waymo be fully deployed in LA by the end of 2024? | Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024. In the 9 months after that, before the end of the year, will you be able to book a ride?
Criteria:
Allow anyone downloading the app to b... | 2023-12-28T11:05:53 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:18:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KMIHjJqhNCT8USTHGvyL | Will Waymo work on highways in 2024? | Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city. It just started to do pickup and drop-offs at select Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport terminals and covers 225 sq miles in Phoenix.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024.
Criteria:
A... | 2023-12-28T11:05:23 | 2025-01-01T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:18:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WcqebxNSN1iUQzc6D4zW | Will "sign in with OpenAI" start being offered as an authentication option for other websites/app before June 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-28T06:34:59 | 2024-06-01T00:01:30 | 2024-06-01T00:01:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kxf95o2EtDgKFKSBrNkR | Will Donald Trump receive more than 46.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election? | I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or is found to be ineligible before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-51) | 2023-12-28T06:32:34 | 2024-11-07T08:22:33 | 2024-11-07T08:22:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7bjPMsBhDWXsn3EZo9Wf | Will Joe Biden receive more than 50.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election? | I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related question:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-51) | 2023-12-28T05:31:37 | 2024-07-21T16:05:19 | 2024-07-21T16:05:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UNtVjNgLX1UDI2BOLGNj | Will Waymo work on highways in 2024? | Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city. It just started to do pickup and drop-offs at select Phoenix Sky Harbor Airport terminals and covers 225 sq miles in Phoenix.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024.
Criteria:
A... | 2023-12-28T05:02:31 | 2024-12-31T15:00:00 | 2025-01-01T16:17:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pnTPl7tV1RPOUSD3XCsy | Will Waymo be fully deployed in LA by the end of 2024? | Context:
Waymo is deployed in San Francisco and Phoenix, accepting customers 24/7 throughout the city.
Waymo is finishing up its 5-month tour of testing in LA in early March 2024. In the 9 months after that, before the end of the year, will you be able to book a ride?
Criteria:
Allow anyone downloading the app to b... | 2023-12-28T04:57:44 | 2024-09-30T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:17:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lgrAgoet5uokMhcWPleE | Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 100 against the USD before the end of March 2024? | Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 100 is enough.
The current rate (28 Dec 2023) is around 90.5 against the USD (the higher the rate, the weaker the Ruble). | 2023-12-28T02:00:22 | 2024-04-01T14:59:00 | 2024-04-02T06:00:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7hkajCQWqgw3SkQzXyu1 | Will Lauren Boebert be the Republican nominee in CO-04? | This question closes as YES if Lauren Boebert wins the Repulican nomination for Colorado's 4th congressional district in 2024. Otherwise this question closes as NO. | 2023-12-27T21:03:36 | 2024-06-26T05:09:42 | 2024-06-26T05:09:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-R9PFftnE7yLU1XZMt9Zz | Will Biden host a Middle East Peace Summit at Camp David during 2024? | Nearly every president of my lifetime has done their variation of the Camp David Peace Accords. Will Biden carry on the tradition? | 2023-12-27T19:56:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T07:25:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rch9nFG4gLoTzQiXX9aL | Will recreational cannabis be federally legalized in the United States by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T18:23:45 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-13T06:33:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-stvnXYgIkXNpfa6ok2hz | Will there be a Russian - American prisoner swap in 2024? 🇷🇺🇺🇸🤝 | Russia is holding a couple of Americans whom the US State department says have been wrongfully detained including: Paul Whelan (since ‘18) and Evan Gershkovich (since March).
In 2022, Russia swapped Brittney Griner for Victor Bout. Will there be another prisoner swap between Russia and the US in 2024?
For this to cou... | 2023-12-27T18:11:18 | 2024-08-01T10:18:32 | 2024-08-01T10:18:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-P6FybqLjuX2ol1VBFNRe | Will Joe Biden receive more than 51.00% of the popular vote in the 2024 general presidential election? | I’ll resolve it early if e.g. he drops out of the running or dies before then but otherwise I’ll wait for the official count to come in.
Related questions
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-donald-trump-receive-more-than):
(https://manifold.markets/embed/father/will-joe-biden-receive-more-than-50) | 2023-12-27T18:08:11 | 2024-07-21T16:05:00 | 2024-07-21T16:05:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DBGTiVy0dqrLZ98WKBnO | Will Liverpool beat Newcastle during regular time on Mon, Jan 1, 2024? - Premier League | ⚽ Liverpool vs Newcastle
📅 Date: Monday, January 1, 2024 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Liverpool has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus sto... | 2023-12-27T16:01:36 | 2024-01-01T15:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:01:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-34G92ssg1PtRsP59caP1 | Will NIKE (NKE) Stock reach $120 until end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T13:41:28 | 2024-01-03T14:59:00 | 2024-01-04T11:07:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UV3Zbi0nuELWg3R7TAvn | In 2024 will the Supreme Court of the United States hear any cases involving OpenAI and/or Anthropic? | https://twitter.com/CFGeek/status/1740048191352143964 | 2023-12-27T13:15:46 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-24T13:34:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LgbMtrprovzrZ8LNt9Ig | Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war before 2025? | Inspired by this market.
If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the de facto military and one of the most prominent political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution w... | 2023-12-27T11:43:47 | 2024-09-29T16:40:36 | 2024-09-29T16:40:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lhqGgAv8q9NQSmfmwZpD | Has Ukraine been operating Western F-16s as of December 27th, 2023? | This article lays out the question nicely: https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-f16-russia-fighter-jets-crimea-su34-1855709
Will resolve yes if Ukraine or American sources confirm it. Will resolve no if the fighters are delivered with much fanfare at a later date. | 2023-12-27T10:45:01 | 2024-02-29T20:59:00 | 2024-03-25T18:09:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l17Fhy7bTdYaR384Lsvb | Will Canada implement universal basic income by January 21 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T08:30:59 | 2024-01-21T20:59:00 | 2024-01-27T16:36:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iqt6y9MpJHoX10xaStR0 | Will Destiny play a game on stream for 3 hours before January 22nd? (excluding browser games) | Destiny has barely played any games on stream since he's been on those ADHD meds. Resolves yes if he spends at least 3 hours on any single game before this market closes, as long as that game is not played in a browser.
Only time played on stream counts.
If the game is running in the background but he is not interact... | 2023-12-27T07:04:51 | 2024-01-21T21:00:00 | 2024-01-21T22:12:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X2cxMPhT84ucJUcApoiS | Will Jimmy Carter survive the Spring? | Spring is March 19 to June 20 | 2023-12-27T05:00:05 | 2024-06-20T20:59:00 | 2024-06-24T02:58:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UzvbkuU4lZTHwWROQOgn | [1K subsidy]Will the debate between Destiny and Ben Shapiro that is hosted by Lex Friedman be published in January 2024? | It doesn’t matter if it happened in January, the video need to be posted in the channel.
If it’s live-streamed on Lex’s channel or destiny’s that also counts .
Related market: https://manifold.markets/Kabose/will-hasan-react-to-the-ben-shapiro?r=S2Fib3Nl | 2023-12-27T04:38:44 | 2024-01-23T09:04:53 | 2024-01-23T09:04:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rElWdIfunTD9SBeekAf8 | Will Harvard President Gay either be fired or resign by 2/1/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T04:11:15 | 2024-01-02T10:51:58 | 2024-01-02T10:51:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XQBDvCHJIUPCAZyK94ra | Will Joe Flacco beat the Ravens in the 2023 NFL Playoffs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T02:21:12 | 2024-01-13T18:43:09 | 2024-01-13T18:43:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zhllbUQGXE8CAGIbfAwW | Will ByteDance Ltd spin TikTok off through IPO by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T00:33:51 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-09T11:53:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-S4JBaS7PnJakAys9X35C | Will the Baltimore Ravens win the Super Bowl LVIII? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-27T00:05:45 | 2024-01-28T15:24:48 | 2024-01-28T15:24:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w3nRvbNX3CuyG7CTrAgN | Will Destiny be unbanned on twitch in January 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-26T23:49:13 | 2024-02-01T23:59:00 | 2024-03-27T13:13:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fZmtwX86LuwqICL4apnD | Will a monthly value of Carbon Dioxide in March 2024 be above 423 ppm? | Resolution based on the value of "Latest measurement" of monthly data for February 2024, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ . Any value above 423, excluding 423 is resolved as Yes.
Current value: 420 ppm, November 2023.
Daily values are here:
[image][image]https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly... | 2023-12-26T23:07:59 | 2024-04-08T04:50:45 | 2024-04-08T04:50:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FavbiO5Rg7dDkc97RzAt | Will the Detroit Pistons finish December without a win? | The Pistons took over the all-time losing streak in a single season with 27 losses against the Nets on the 26th. This streak saw them go winless in November and could see them repeat that feat in December.
They play the best record in the East in the Celtics on the road on the 28th, followed up by the lowly Raptors a... | 2023-12-26T20:41:14 | 2023-12-30T17:38:27 | 2023-12-30T17:38:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VNrMZlLolKBmXpeMEZxI | Major news about Chinese human genetic engineering before 2025? | Somewhat subjective what counts as "major" so I won't bet. Does not have to be CCP-approved. The HIV thing from a few years ago would count, obviously. The main thing that affects how this resolves is whether or not the thing is (heavily, not minutely) reported in the Western press, not whether or not I think it should... | 2023-12-26T19:46:19 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T09:44:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kfg0A95aYIDtr9QCn2Zb | Will there be a major school shooting in the US before the end of 2024? | Introduction: For the purposes of tracking crime data, the FBI defines a "mass shooting" as any incident in which at least four people are murdered with a gun.
This will resolve to YES if a shooting in a school occurs in the United States with four or more fatal victims, before end of 2024, from the creation date of t... | 2023-12-26T18:38:29 | 2024-09-04T12:35:51 | 2024-09-04T12:35:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-oq51KBobj1bI7YFjMQYo | Will Apple end "green bubble" texts in 2024? | "Messaging has been a key part of Apple’s strategy to sell more iPhones. For years, it has made exchanges between iPhones and Android devices as basic as the texts between decades-old flip phones. Texts between iPhone users appear in blue and can be tapped to give a thumbs up, but texts with Android users appear in gre... | 2023-12-26T18:19:12 | 2024-09-28T16:46:24 | 2024-09-28T16:46:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3SGFs2cDjXcV2ctf7NYY | California Forever new city ballot measure passes in Solano County | The group California Forever wants to build a new city in Solano County, in the San Francisco Bay Area. This market resolves to YES if the group qualifies a ballot measure for the November 2024 ballot for Solano County, and if the measure passes.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/tech-billionaires-city-sola... | 2023-12-26T14:46:11 | 2024-08-16T17:41:16 | 2024-08-16T17:41:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-H4vKQl8mI3QL2wgW2NLu | Will Valerii Zaluzhnyi still be the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on January 1, 2025? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commander-in-Chief_of_the_Armed_Forces_of_Ukraine
[image]related:
[markets] | 2023-12-26T14:39:55 | 2024-02-08T12:15:20 | 2024-02-08T12:15:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N96XISoQnmK8nCAeqmki | Will Jimmy Carter die in 2024? | Jimmy Carter is currently 99 years old and is currently in hospice care as of November 2023. | 2023-12-26T13:09:13 | 2024-12-29T13:41:39 | 2024-12-30T11:37:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fS5Y0XZiYQZY8OGDW6lk | Will Javier Milei still be president of Argentina one year after assuming the country's presidency on 10/12/2024? | Since the 1980s, there have been numerous presidential resignations in different Latin American countries. For example, Argentine president de la Rúa resigned in 2001 in the face of a political crisis.
Although Javier Milei won the 2023 elections with the majority of votes, his real agenda may not be as popular in re... | 2023-12-26T11:59:42 | 2024-10-15T16:34:05 | 2024-10-15T16:34:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-096HIAtcBLIEsWFHxCLU | Will Apple resume advertising on X before July 1st, 2024? | This market will resolve YES if credible media reports that Apple has resumed advertising on X. This will also resolve YES if multiple credible users publically report that they see ads for Apple on X.
This market will resolve NO if on July 1st, the conditions for YES are not met. | 2023-12-26T11:04:47 | 2024-07-01T20:59:00 | 2024-07-03T06:59:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JSdVEejrLehONfH5kIFp | Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024? | The following excerpt is taken from the information, and I wonder if this will come true in 2024:
Interestingly, the same Bloomberg report said OpenAI is talking to Abu Dhabi firm G42about raising billions of dollars for an AI server chip venture. That would require the startup to either find new talent or make an acq... | 2023-12-26T10:50:17 | 2024-12-31T13:41:56 | 2024-12-31T13:42:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P5Sz0oKfuO8ulZnYw6a5 | Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions in their Week 17 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Cowboys win
No - Lions win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-12-26T09:36:46 | 2023-12-30T20:21:36 | 2023-12-30T20:21:48 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Q8KfEjOurJlRjIUH2h7E | Will bitcoin pass $45,000 before the end of 2023 | Will the value of bitcoin displayed by the Google Market Summary surpass $45,000 per coin before January 1st of 2024? | 2023-12-26T09:34:20 | 2024-01-01T20:53:41 | 2024-01-01T20:53:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-96HbrGjWHlDxwWtO1BL5 | Will Arsenal beat Porto across 2 legs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-26T08:52:51 | 2024-03-12T17:00:00 | 2024-03-13T09:56:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qy2rwIlgiSctK0JsYU5Z | Will Bayern Munich beat Lazio across 2 legs? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-26T08:51:17 | 2024-03-05T16:00:00 | 2024-03-13T09:57:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JAJoEt7473oRDG4Za5qu | Will Nikki Haley beat Ron DeSantis in the Iowa caucus? | Closes when results clear. Likely 1-2 days after polling date or by 30 days. | 2023-12-26T08:18:06 | 2024-01-16T07:58:27 | 2024-01-16T07:58:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mqQYeeY0LJF1SR6YHEiM | Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating) | I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if any opensource model will take any of these positions at any point in 2024 and keep it for a full week
[i... | 2023-12-26T06:27:53 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:09:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7ueFp56Qw412x7NXR0KS | Will iOS 18 introduce big improvements to Siri, making it similar to ChatGPT? | Will iOS 18 introduce big improvements to Siri and have similar capabilities as ChatGPT while keeping the same system integration that Siri currently has?
All devices supporting iOS 18 need to have at least the basic capabilities of the new Siri.
The update needs to be announced at WWDC 2024. | 2023-12-26T06:20:52 | 2024-06-10T09:59:00 | 2024-06-10T11:50:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Oml41UMLfBnCRyg53Cli | ☠️ Will More Than 650 Mass Shootings Occur Within The United States In 2024? | Will More Than 650 Mass Shootings Occur Within The United States In 2024?
Current Tracking Source
Source For Past Results
2023: 659(revised)
2022: 644
2021: 689
2020: 611
2019: 414
2018: 335
Resolves Yes If Over 650
Resolve No If 650 Or Under
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRAD... | 2023-12-26T01:38:44 | 2024-12-31T17:00:00 | 2024-12-31T17:38:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C2317pvvCPXEjVNkLxza | Will Dune: Part Two make over 500 million dollars at the worldwide box office? | Re-releases don't count
See also for 600 million:
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-600-mi | 2023-12-25T20:22:53 | 2024-03-21T09:35:43 | 2024-03-21T09:35:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DblItRPnHNj5EtPH12OA | Will Sweden join NATO before the next Bitcoin halving? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-25T19:13:35 | 2024-03-07T09:26:30 | 2024-03-07T09:26:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Tz4IFkVeUlTd9GTDOOrG | Will Sweden Join NATO before Elden Ring's first DLC releases? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-25T19:08:28 | 2024-03-07T09:15:44 | 2024-03-07T09:15:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-aeC8ZZpZon8pDmHPuKZj | Will a portion of the Epstein client list be released by the end of 2024? | if more than one name of the Epstein client list is revealed through official means or leaked (but verified by official sources) by the end of 2024 on December 31st | 2023-12-25T12:54:51 | 2024-01-04T09:13:36 | 2024-01-04T09:13:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8s4fWCzAtfctBs2RkB7f | Will NYC have a white Christmas in 2024? New York City ❄️🎄 | Resolves YES if there is ANY existing snow on the ground or ANY snowfall hail or sleet within New York City limits on December 24 or December 25, 2024, even if it melts. | 2023-12-25T12:00:52 | 2024-12-26T23:59:00 | 2024-12-27T14:46:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C3RfAM2MloM2RbS2Rsng | Will Tesla deliver more than 5000 Cybertrucks in 2024? | Market will remain open until we know clearly how many were delivered. | 2023-12-25T11:55:09 | 2024-07-07T23:49:27 | 2024-07-07T23:49:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6h5I2Lm0ngG2rdccyjOz | Will there be a gpt-4 quality LLM with distributed inference by the end of 2024? | The model has a Elo greater than 1190 on ChatbotArena (or if ChatbotArena is no longer available/updating, achieves GPT 4 (03.14) equivalent or greater performance on both MMLU and MT-Bench)
When running inference in a geographically distributed fashion (the computational hardware is not colocated, and is networked ov... | 2023-12-25T11:29:33 | 2025-01-01T19:26:10 | 2025-01-01T19:26:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QJYH6xXWXqRScQ3gwHqK | Will Claudine Gay remain Harvard’s president through Monday, 1/8/2024? | Announcement of future resignation counts
@/Traveel/will-claudine-gay-remain-harvards-p
^^^Based on this upstream prediction, but a shorter time limit: | 2023-12-25T11:26:00 | 2024-01-02T12:13:58 | 2024-01-02T12:13:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nMKJK0xLRfqMZ8Bci5lI | Will the S&P 500 reach a new all-time high in 2024? | If the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time (greater than 4,818.62) high in 2024 this resolves to yes. | 2023-12-25T10:15:17 | 2024-01-19T13:56:22 | 2024-01-19T13:56:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-m12RKXVgkmgTTxt6fXMb | Will 2024 be the hottest year in the last 25 years | Yes if the avg temp is higher than the previous 25years | 2023-12-25T10:05:17 | 2025-01-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:21:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-an9Boc3xsIwERAdUiusW | Will Marianne Williamson win more than 7 delegates in the 2024 presidential primaries? | Fun fact: Marianne Williamson is the only politician I’ve ever donated money to, and I did it twice.
At the 2024 Democratic National Convention, will Marianne Williamson have more than 7 delegates pledged (i.e. >=8)?
In 2020, the total delegate split was as follows:
[image]For the record, New Hampshire does allocate... | 2023-12-25T08:49:06 | 2024-02-07T19:01:36 | 2024-02-07T19:01:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Si9PEqgIWPna5CA0Rt3x | Will Destiny talk to DJ Akademiks in 2024? | It has to be a real conversation, them just tweeting at each other wouldn't be enough.
There doesn't need to be any public recording of it as long as there is other evidence that they did indeed talk to each other. | 2023-12-25T06:44:17 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T04:26:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0KcCrglRzcat8gD9ots3 | Will a bitcoin cycle top occur around January 10, 2024? | Many technical indicators, events such as potential ETF approvals, monthly patterns such as the known beginning-of-month rises, outstanding performance on January 1 in 2014, 2017, and 2023, and long-term patterns such as the 2019 bubble, are lining up for a cycle top in bitcoin in early January.
This market will resol... | 2023-12-25T06:24:50 | 2024-03-03T04:09:48 | 2024-03-03T04:09:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NBZN55xUyYv9PVb0eMWW | Will it snow in New York during the winter of 2023-2024? | It has been more than 700 days since accumulating snow fell in several US East Coast cities. No snow has yet fallen this winter, and little usually falls during El Nino years.
This market will resolve to YES if accumulating snow is recorded in New York's Central Park before June 1, 2024. A trace of snow is not defin... | 2023-12-25T06:14:58 | 2024-01-06T18:48:17 | 2024-01-06T18:48:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qXu1vRB5aeYAgquhqhzr | 10) U.S. court rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. [Abbreviated] | Full title of the prediction here: 10. At least one U.S. court will rule that generative AI models trained on the internet represent a violation of copyright. The issue will begin working its way up to the U.S. Supreme Court.
All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the ... | 2023-12-25T05:43:08 | 2024-12-17T08:39:33 | 2024-12-17T08:39:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pFH25WfpIObivtRor29r | 9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024 | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 202... | 2023-12-25T05:41:13 | 2024-12-17T08:41:04 | 2024-12-17T08:41:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RIekeZhDMR43ic6y7Nr8 | 8) The Microsoft/OpenAI relationship will begin to fray. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag Forbes - 2024 AI Predictions.
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 202... | 2023-12-25T05:38:50 | 2024-12-17T08:41:15 | 2024-12-17T08:41:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-4Pmjnk2MT301kTCTHjoL | 6) An alternative to the transformer architecture will see meaningful adoption. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:35:59 | 2024-12-17T08:40:54 | 2024-12-17T08:40:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-12TcBlen2rTR2iKtvuoX | 5) A number of Fortune 500 companies will create a new C-suite position: Chief AI Officer. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:35:15 | 2024-12-17T08:40:42 | 2024-12-17T08:40:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kig4qgadnvGKbax38N80 | 4) The most advanced closed models will continue to outperform the most advanced open models by a meaningful margin. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:33:19 | 2024-12-17T08:39:52 | 2024-12-17T08:39:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ct75KHMKUlgWwRlyHie5 | 3) The terms “large language model” and “LLM” will become less common. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:32:06 | 2024-12-17T08:40:02 | 2024-12-17T08:40:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AzRHv5frA0Qotz3GXHjw | 2) Stability AI will shut down. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:24:39 | 2024-12-17T08:40:26 | 2024-12-17T08:40:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-neDVeUTthAH2EO8qflRc | 1) Nvidia will dramatically ramp up its efforts to become a cloud provider. | All these predictions are taken from Forbes/Rob Toews' "10 AI Predictions For 2024".
For the 2023 predictions you can find them here, and their resolution here.
You can find all the markets under the tag [2024 Forbes AI predictions].
I will resolve to whatever Forbes/Rob Toews say in their resolution article for 2024... | 2023-12-25T05:23:48 | 2024-12-17T08:40:14 | 2024-12-17T08:40:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1NmMlzrC5y6i3TGnVVZv | Will Trudeau still be prime minister by the end of 2024 | Resolutions is self evident | 2023-12-25T04:30:43 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-10T12:03:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ngjx69owML7OYsZ5XXgd | Will Russia control Krynky by the end of January 2024 | understandingwar.org will be used to determine how this resolves
Yes: if the Russian campaign offensive shows krynki as an assessed Russian advance or assessed Russian-controlled territory before end of Jan 31st 2024 at midnight
No: no otherwise | 2023-12-25T04:28:43 | 2024-01-31T20:59:00 | 2024-02-01T03:20:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZGDgt5NGBa5Id1h6k57f | By 2024-10-01, will ChatGPT Plus users be able to generate >=10 seconds of video? | i'm not betting on this market
if ChatGPT stops existing as a product => N/A
resolves based on state at market close time. if answer becomes "yes", that doesn't immediately trigger resolution. if, say, openai deploys this in August but rolls it back in September, and it stays off by 2024-10-01, that's a "no".
Video ... | 2023-12-25T02:35:36 | 2024-10-01T18:45:28 | 2024-10-01T18:45:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OrF7wr2jy0bxWknn6TJe | Will the Paris Olympics opening ceremony take place on the Seine river per the initial plan? | https://www.reuters.com/sports/france-prepared-change-plans-2024-olympics-opening-based-security-2023-12-20/
Because of the safety concerns related to hosting the opening ceremony in a non enclosed area like a stadium, Paris Olympics officials have shared that alternate plans exist for the opening ceremony.
The marke... | 2023-12-25T02:21:43 | 2024-07-26T10:46:44 | 2024-07-26T10:46:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rLlCKbGtB8Hlo6sjJdYQ | Will a meteorite cause property damage or injury on Earth in 2024? | Will a meteorite physically harm someone or damage property on Earth at any point during 2024?
Examples include breaking multiple windows in an area, collapsing or partially collapsing any buildings, putting holes in roofs or walls, causing structural fires, damaging the electric grid or other critical infrastructure,... | 2023-12-25T00:45:36 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-27T16:14:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ptgs5T2wH567bjXGuXTR | Will 'Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom' (2023) be rated at least 6.0 on IMDb one week after its U.S. release? | Resolves YES if Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom (2023) has an IMDb rating of 6.0 or higher at 11:59 PM UTC on Friday, Dec 29, 2023.
Resolves NO if the rating is below 6.0 at that time.
IMDb page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt9663764/ | 2023-12-24T23:33:14 | 2023-12-29T15:59:00 | 2023-12-29T15:59:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n8GuJvmX4HgNRH51IVLW | Will Michael Reeves upload before April 11, 2024? | https://www.youtube.com/@MichaelReeves - notoriously quirky with his upload schedule - published his latest video on the 11th of April, 2023. Will his next video come before the one year anniversary of the last?
A few interesting points to mention:
If you look at his posting history, has a bit of a tendency to upload... | 2023-12-24T21:14:30 | 2024-04-13T02:08:41 | 2024-04-13T02:08:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IzpNEywe9njj90Y6zqih | Will April 2024 be the hottest April on record? | Will resolve based on NOAA global monthly report
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/ | 2023-12-24T19:23:23 | 2024-05-01T20:59:00 | 2024-05-14T09:12:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-sTIuYkVuCAK5hNz9pMaJ | Will the Bridges podcast have Ethan Klein as a guest in 2024? | This question will resolve NO on 2025-01-01 if Ethan Klein does not make an appearance on the Bridges podcast, and will resolve YES if he does. | 2023-12-24T17:12:42 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-06T10:39:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qS0ifz8gBQS06Hr4Qd4I | Will the 2024 AIME get leaked? | resolve yes if either aime i or aime ii gets leaked | 2023-12-24T14:35:43 | 2024-02-04T18:43:42 | 2024-02-04T18:43:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-knqkgEsEBCg7z8b2kjLz | Will Haunted Chocolatier (Stardew Valley Dev's next game) release before Jan 1st 2025? | Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haunted_Chocolatier | 2023-12-24T12:25:01 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T08:52:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g9i9Em2VeH80Mz59Bzbb | Will Sweden Join NATO before Bitcoin reaches $50K again? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-24T11:27:14 | 2024-02-12T09:36:53 | 2024-02-12T09:36:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dWj7KTMNGAKjFJKiiUVc | Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-24T11:25:26 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T16:12:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL | Will Apple’s next iPhone (2024) include an on-device LLM “ChatBot”? | I've seen rumors that Apple might be working on local on-device LLMs for iPhones. I wonder if this is true. The market will resolve "yes" if Apple's new device features an on-device conversational LLM. It would suffice if the LLM is a combination of on-device and cloud-based processing. | 2023-12-24T11:15:19 | 2024-09-13T01:00:00 | 2024-09-13T02:13:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pC0wTePMLGDhneQ91fwy | Will the release of Gemini Ultra trigger a surge of public panic and government concern around AI? | As per discussion around here: https://twitter.com/ohabryka/status/1738770505577197595
Alyssa Vance (Aug 29): Like GPT-4, Google's Gemini will, predictably, trigger a surge of public and government concern about advanced AI. It's good to prepare plans in advance so they can be launched in December or January
John Pre... | 2023-12-24T08:21:55 | 2024-04-30T20:59:00 | 2024-05-01T03:34:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0h4EvzHmjDiRoww9sk1Z | Will Alby Browser Extension hit 1,000⭐ stars on Github in 2024? | The Bitcoin Lightning Browser extension by Alby is an open-source tool that helps you seamlessly operate within lightning ecosystem in web. Will it hit 1,000 stars on Github in 2024?
https://getalby.com/
https://github.com/getAlby/lightning-browser-extension
https://star-history.com/#getAlby/lightning-browser-extens... | 2023-12-24T05:58:18 | 2024-12-30T21:59:00 | 2025-01-26T16:37:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8t2yTinyAcBvCZy3csIQ | Will X (fka Twitter) come public in 2024 under the "X" stock ticker? | Come public means that it trades on a public stock exchange and it must use the
"X" stock ticker to resolve to "yes." | 2023-12-24T04:51:08 | 2024-12-31T12:00:55 | 2024-12-31T12:00:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fswBEzWGQY1h8sjmuByw | Will hollow knight: silksong release before march 1 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-24T02:44:55 | 2024-03-01T04:59:00 | 2024-03-01T14:50:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u5mXIFAZNOb1Hwb0624o | 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches in 2024? | 🚀 Will SpaceX Achieve 100 Successful launches in 2024?
Resolves To All Successful Launches Of All Variants Of Launch Vehicles On The Official Flight Manifest Page.
SPACEX PAST FLIGHTS MANIFEST
Launches Must Occur During The Beginning of January 1st 2024 12am ET (5am UTC) - December 31st 11:59pm ET (4:59 am UTC)
LA... | 2023-12-24T01:16:43 | 2024-10-23T16:26:16 | 2024-10-23T16:26:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-srCLapMVA3DhaD6Aba4W | Will Taylor Swift announce she is pregnant in 2024? | Resolves yes if Taylor Swift announces she is pregnant or has a baby in 2024. | 2023-12-24T00:45:05 | 2025-01-01T08:19:04 | 2025-01-01T08:19:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
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