id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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stringlengths 19
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stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-5O73Ed27B0iKkn7xKpR5
|
Will Gotham Chess (Levy Rozman) join Manifold before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-24T00:18:42
|
2025-01-01T00:09:00
|
2025-01-08T13:52:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0dtiTGhH5TwskhAzxqam
|
Will Jannik Sinner be higher ranked than Carlos Alcaraz at the end of the 2024 ATP season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-23T20:35:55
|
2024-10-13T18:08:18
|
2024-10-13T18:08:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HolIp9pDr9bQmAWYhS6C
|
Will there be a lasting cease-fire in the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024?
|
A formal cease-fire will count, as long as it remains substantially in effect at the resolution time. Minor violations won’t count against this as long as both sides and the international media agree it is still substantially in effect. An informal cease-fire will count if it involves at least one month without significant military action and the international media dubs it a de facto cease fire. A cease-fire which is signed but then substantially broken before 1/1/25 will not count.
Market will resolve according to Scott Alexander’s judgment, as given through future posts on Astral Codex Ten, or my judgment if Scott has not expressed a judgment before 1/31/25.
Note: Question text duplicated to extend timeline and mirror @ACXBot Previous question.
|
2023-12-23T19:46:31
|
2025-01-21T19:03:48
|
2025-01-21T19:03:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O5EqfoJhVHcboFwIqCNd
|
Will the Australian Open have a new grand slam winner on the men's side?
|
The winner of the men's side will be a "new grand slam winner" if that player has never won a grand slam singles title before. Likely new grand slam winners are Jannik Sinner, Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Holger Rune.
|
2023-12-23T17:20:53
|
2024-01-28T04:32:17
|
2024-01-28T04:32:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OyXT5SsVIpA407gTkKGk
|
Will Brighton beat Tottenham during regular time on Thu, Dec 28, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Brighton vs Tottenham
📅 Date: Thursday, December 28, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 19:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Brighton has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Tottenham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-12-23T16:01:44
|
2023-12-28T14:30:00
|
2023-12-28T15:01:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EhvcZH3seI5aDijYXQq7
|
Will Ilya Sutskever leave OpenAI in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-23T15:48:34
|
2024-05-14T17:31:47
|
2024-05-14T17:31:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TE58Z3c0tCzfZ9vLVgOs
|
Will Republicans win the 2024 North Carolina gubernatorial election?
|
Resolves to YES if a member of the Republican party wins the race for North Carolina governor on November 5th, 2024.
|
2023-12-23T15:26:23
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-14T00:48:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OUhvT0CsROEWXmjIaGZt
|
Will President Joe Biden win the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
|
Will resolve to YES if President Joe Biden wins the most votes in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election.
Will resolve to NO otherwise or if President Biden is not the Democratic Party nominee for President.
|
2023-12-23T15:20:15
|
2024-07-28T21:02:33
|
2024-07-28T21:02:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Hdu4AaYOBfl0gZEYoYRC
|
Will Suno be sued for musical copyright infringement in 2024?
|
https://www.suno.ai/
The two most likely ways this resolves YES are lawsuits over using copyrighted material in training data, or over output of the model. There are probably other possibilities too, this is not an exhaustive list. The lawsuit does not have to be successful, but it does have to be serious. If some random person files a lawsuit that's thrown out immediately for not being valid, that doesn't count.
Note: I am not a lawyer, and know nothing about specific technical meanings of legal terms. I will resolve this in my own common sense interpretation (with input from commenters in borderline cases), as I do not have the legal knowledge to come up with watertight resolution criteria. If you do and want to suggest changes to the description to avoid pitfalls, be my guest.
To avoid conflict of interest, I will not trade in this market.
|
2023-12-23T15:10:26
|
2024-06-24T14:58:52
|
2024-06-24T14:58:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aeXIIwa9oFvSQyOqw0mv
|
Will Claudine Gay still be president of Harvard University on February 1, 2024?
|
Will Claudine Gay still be the president of Harvard University on February 1st, 2024 EST?
I'm curious whether or not Harvard has the balls to axe her after the plagiarism accusations. It doesn’t matter how it happens or if she retains a lesser position; this will resolve YES if she has the same position she has now (President), NO if she does not.
|
2023-12-23T14:29:51
|
2024-01-02T11:49:34
|
2024-01-02T11:49:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aLsa3ID8RVUye56oJPAx
|
Will Solana reach $250 before the end of 2024?
|
Solana hit an all time high of around $250 in 2021 and fell all the way below $10 a year later in 2022. In 2023 it has been roaring back and by Christmas 2023 it was back above $100. What’s next?
|
2023-12-23T14:04:35
|
2024-12-11T10:00:02
|
2024-12-11T10:00:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bZYMNCwkWt9Ow319a7De
|
Will an American win the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
|
Will resolve YES if a player under the flag of the United States of America wins the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament. Fabiano Caruana and Hikaru Nakamura are currently expected to play.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
Will resolve NO otherwise.
This is expected to resolve by the end of the tournament which is scheduled to end on April 25, 2024
|
2023-12-23T12:07:09
|
2024-04-21T18:08:52
|
2024-04-21T18:08:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5fL5ExzG8b86Xnjfe1BF
|
Will Benjamin Netnyahu resign from office by the end of 2024?
|
Resign means stepping down voluntarily from his role as Prime Minister of Israel,1 and not as a result of his government disbanding.
|
2023-12-23T11:25:02
|
2024-12-31T21:32:49
|
2024-12-31T21:32:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4lbxtWmaUfKa3W2L1Xpt
|
Will Shania Twain go on the Hard Fork podcast in 2024?
|
Kevin and Casey have repeatedly joked about Shania Twain coming on the Hard Fork podcast...will she make an actual appearance on the show in 2024? Any sort of real life appearance on the show (in person or remote) or personalized voice/video message created for the show counts. Written messages (e.g. an email or DM) or AI generated voice creations do not count.
|
2023-12-23T07:52:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:01:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NUx7e2a7uKsh4jfVuRJ6
|
Will a monthly value of Carbon Dioxide in February 2024 be above 422 ppm?
|
Resolution based on the value of "Latest measurement" of monthly data for February 2024, https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/ . Any value above 422, excluding 422 is resolved as Yes.
Current value: 420 ppm, November 2023.
Daily values are here:
[image][image]https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/monthly.html here are daily values from that observatory
|
2023-12-23T06:59:22
|
2024-02-29T12:59:00
|
2024-03-10T12:03:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BW5MtOEAA1KSNEQLWtYm
|
Will Taylor Swift release Taylor Swift (Taylor's Version) before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-23T06:12:16
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:43:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz
|
Will Taylor Swift release Reputation (Taylor's Version) before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-23T06:11:06
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-11T17:05:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1Fvl9nzkQZ6DTFTssBef
|
Will the warthunder forums leak classified information before March 1, 2024?
|
The warthunder forums are famous for leaking classified manuals about the millitary hardware represented in the game.
Last known leak before opening this bet (DEC 19, 2023): https://taskandpurpose.com/news/leaked-bradley-documents-war-thunder-forums-again/
This will resolve YES when a credible publication publishes an article outlining an instance where classified manuals or other material are posted on the warthunder forums. The material must be currently classified and not a historical document.
Leaks that are not technically classified but are otherwise legally restricted (such as the bradley documents described in the article above) will still count as long as they generate media coverage and trigger removal from the forums by the warthunder mods.
This will resolve NO on March 1, 2024 if this does not happen before then.
|
2023-12-23T03:28:24
|
2024-03-01T02:59:00
|
2024-03-01T15:06:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LAqxqEjPl3QtNQ17yIV0
|
Will Ukraine issue a mobilization order for Ukrainians living abroad by the end of Jan 2024?
|
Apparently the Ukrainian government is discussing the possibility of mobilizing Ukrainians living abroad. Will it result in an official order issued before 2024-02-01 for some categories of Ukrainians living abroad to return to the country and be mobilized?
|
2023-12-23T00:29:25
|
2024-02-01T02:39:18
|
2024-02-01T02:39:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pv1J0pANJ5LvGX4X8r1X
|
Will the word "gooncave" appear in a NYT article before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-22T23:33:48
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:44:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dGJaKr7YKzZPE5c3Wkzy
|
Will there be a military conflict between Israel and Iran during 2024?
|
This question will only resolve YES for direct engagement between Iran and Israel. Here are some potential scenarios that would resolves YES:
Israel conducting airstrikes on targets inside Iran and/or the Iranians shooting down Israeli aircraft in Iranian airspace.
Targeted assassinations conducted by either side against government or military leaders of the other regardless of where they take place.
Any airstrikes must be acknowledged by Israel and unambiguously NOT conducted by the US.
If it is shown Iran has boots on the ground in Gaza operating alongside Hamas or even directing their operation tactically in theater that would count, but ID needs to be irrefutable or acknowledged by Tehran.
|
2023-12-22T22:04:25
|
2024-04-02T04:24:53
|
2024-04-02T04:24:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0IPUygA5I7kHFrbMalTU
|
Will the House of Representatives impeach President Joe Biden before the 2024 U.S. Presidential election?
|
Resolved to YES if a majority of the House of Representatives votes to impeach President Joe Biden before November 5th, 2024.
|
2023-12-22T21:20:01
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T21:35:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qpUL0hk4SmPjs7Whw6nl
|
Will the 2024 U.S. Presidental election be a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump?
|
Will resolve to YES if Joe Biden is the Democratic nominee and Donald Trump is the Republican nominee for President on election day 2024.
|
2023-12-22T20:58:18
|
2024-08-22T22:38:24
|
2024-08-22T22:38:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PBGKwXY9j46P2RQIMTBi
|
Will Democrats control the U.S. Senate at the start of the 119th U.S. Congress?
|
This market will resolve after the 119th Congress is seated. The market will resolve to YES if Democrats + Vice President (president of the Senate) + Independents who caucus with Democrats have 50 or more votes in the Senate. This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
|
2023-12-22T19:57:26
|
2025-01-04T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:41:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0ocdgwF6dzFSyJbB7nCK
|
Will Trump’s January 6 trial have a verdict before Election Day?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-22T18:07:24
|
2024-11-05T09:13:03
|
2024-11-05T09:13:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fp6HRbxcFtGzZQkGZ5lL
|
Will we get AGI before 2024?
|
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2024
Markets with the same criteria:
@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023 (this question)
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048
|
2023-12-22T15:47:15
|
2024-02-04T07:13:23
|
2024-02-04T07:13:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-klRzSgfGZtQpLu80LRFW
|
NFL🏈: Week 18 -- Will the Philadelphia Eagles win their NFL Game against the New York Giants on 01/07?
|
Time of Game not announced as of date of creation of this market.
I will close this market for trading about an hour after KICKOFF. So please place your trades in prior to that!!
|
2023-12-22T13:43:47
|
2024-01-07T22:15:39
|
2024-01-07T22:15:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mKbFsGCucIKlBmou8mTd
|
Will Nikki Haley get over 25% of the vote in the New Hampshire primary?
|
Resolves YES if she gets 25%+1 vote in the GOP Presidential primary in New Hampshire on January 23rd.
|
2023-12-22T10:12:33
|
2024-01-23T20:59:00
|
2024-01-23T21:24:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EsHYFBz8qJ9QODu1nDOA
|
Will DeSantis be the #2 polling candidate in Iowa the day before the Iowa caucuses?
|
This market will resolve based solely on the FiveThirtyEight "Who's Ahead in Iowa" chart, using the same criteria as the national market.
DeSantis is currently in second place. Will he still be in second place right before the first caucuses?
|
2023-12-22T09:56:14
|
2024-01-14T21:59:00
|
2024-01-14T22:53:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NGyp1HZhzjt1CyAi8lbc
|
Will Vivek Ramaswamy drop out of the race for President before the New Hampshire primary?
|
Before the first votes in Dixville Notch are cast.
|
2023-12-22T09:44:24
|
2024-01-15T20:30:37
|
2024-01-15T20:30:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U1VtEDQ7FWL2Slu1RvRc
|
Will Brazil reach investment grade until the end of 2024?
|
Brazil lost its investment grade during the severe recession caused by the ‘new economic matrix,’ implemented by former President Dilma Rousseff. Since then, Brazil’s credit rating has fallen several notches. However, due to recent economic reforms, Brazil is now rated BB by Standard & Poor’s. Economists believe that only after another round of reforms will Brazil be able to regain its investment grade, aiming for a BBB- rating. I created this poll to gauge whether people believe Brazil is capable of improving from a BB to a BBB- rating (a two-notch increase) by December 31, 2024
|
2023-12-22T08:06:40
|
2024-12-18T07:36:34
|
2024-12-18T07:36:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bqqjVUOIJXaxXyXPMckf
|
Will Keir Starmer be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom at the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Keir Starmer holds the title of Prime Minister as per https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers/prime-minister at point of market close on the 31st of December 2024.
|
2023-12-22T05:46:09
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:02:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XnPoPxLKQiAwSgTQL287
|
Will USD/RUB exchange rate stay higher than 100 for at least one week in 2024?
|
This question resolves YES if, according to Yahoo Finance, USD/RUB pair stays higher than 100 (at close) for at least 7 consecutive days in 2024. I will use the "Close" column of the source table to resolve the question.
For days without a record I will use the last recorded close price. So if the price is 105 from Monday to Friday, and there are no records for subsequent Saturday and Sunday, the resolution will be YES.
Author betting policy
I will bet on this market.
|
2023-12-22T05:16:53
|
2024-11-27T00:59:40
|
2024-11-27T00:59:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UdZs4QLqxwVEsKRpz4Sk
|
Will Destiny talk to Ethan Klein publicly in 2024?
|
Not through text/dms, talking either on a stream, video, or in real life, publicly.
|
2023-12-21T20:23:30
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-08T01:59:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3VznS1etDNXEwDjbxLpC
|
Will Destiny and Melina be seen together on camera in 2024?
|
There must be a photo / video screenshot of Destiny and Melina in the same photo.
|
2023-12-21T20:22:24
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-08T14:37:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gl5FzNUeTYSvoSekuYdU
|
Will Elon Musk get his own Hunter Biden laptop scandal in 2024?
|
[This is Kevin's low-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if, by 12/31/24, Elon Musk has downranked/throttled/censored a news outlet's coverage of the 2024 US presidential election on X, similar to the decision Twitter made to temporarily disallow links to the New York Post's Hunter Biden laptop story in 2020.
|
2023-12-21T18:50:58
|
2024-09-28T12:26:31
|
2024-09-28T12:26:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lHRf43jliKeSMdqvSyvr
|
Will the Apple Vision Pro be successful enough to revive interest in mixed reality and the metaverse?
|
[This is Casey's low-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if the Apple Vision Pro is a success at reviving interest in mixed reality and the metaverse by December 31, 2024 using some resolution criteria I'm not sure about. (This is Kevin writing the prediction, ask Casey how he'll resolve it!)
|
2023-12-21T18:47:56
|
2024-12-31T16:41:48
|
2024-12-31T16:41:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p
|
Will white-collar workers unionize to prevent job loss to AI/automation in 2024?
|
[This is Kevin's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if there is significant new union activity in at least 3 of these 5 fields by December 31, 2024: law, finance, medicine, media and tech. To count, unions don't need to be NLRB-certified by the end of 2024, but preventing AI and automation-related job loss should be among the organizers' top stated priorities.
|
2023-12-21T18:45:25
|
2024-12-31T16:34:08
|
2024-12-31T16:34:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TXq1oCXEMLqO8uTdR7dO
|
Will Google mostly catch up to OpenAI in LLM quality and neutralize ChatGPT's lead by the end of 2024?
|
[This is Casey's medium-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This market will resolve to yes if Google's Gemini Ultra or other state-of-the-art LLM is roughly equivalent to OpenAI's best publicly available LLM on December 31, 2024, and if Google's AI products have cut into ChatGPT's share of the consumer LLM chatbot market. Otherwise, it will resolve to no.
|
2023-12-21T18:41:01
|
2024-12-31T16:39:05
|
2024-12-31T16:39:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uje5f9wQhZ8l6yrKGfoR
|
Will a lawless LLM chatbot get 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024?
|
[This is Kevin's high-confidence prediction, made on the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
This question asks whether a lawless LLM chatbot will get to 10 million daily active users by the end of 2024. For the purposes of resolving this market, "lawless" should be construed to mean "significantly less restrained than comparable models from OpenAI, Google and Anthropic." It does not have to have literally zero rules to qualify as lawless, but a lawless chatbot should be able to respond to most queries and prompts (even explicit/violent/sexual ones) without refusals.
|
2023-12-21T18:34:52
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-03T04:32:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ei9AAUzMY9fw85D75k7v
|
Will Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024?
|
[This is Casey's high-confidence prediction from the 12/22/23 episode of Hard Fork]
Will Instagram Threads overtake X in daily active users by the end of 2024? Market will resolve to yes if both companies report daily usage metrics that show that Threads daily usage is higher than X daily usage. (In the absence of audited public disclosures by the companies, credible third-party estimates, such as Comscore or Quantcast measurements, will also be considered valid).
|
2023-12-21T18:27:13
|
2024-12-31T19:59:00
|
2025-01-01T16:21:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-S5nvwdaNKemNL4c6m1ij
|
Will Hezbollah withdraw its forces beyond the Litani river by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-21T14:24:59
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:13:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JOrLMhPLNVUsOCIsPE6F
|
Will Destiny appear on the Joe Rogan Podcast by the end of 2024
|
If the episode is recorded in 2024 BUT is released in 2025, it doesn't count as a 2024 appearance.
|
2023-12-21T14:10:07
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-08T22:36:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mwxGo0uqZlsg5er3RVi
|
YouTube will have an AI built-in that can answer questions while watching a video in 2024
|
tl;dr
If there is an AI made by YouTube (or Google) available to general US public (free or paid) before the end of 2024 that can answer questions by a user on a video they are watching.
This market is looking to see if an AI tool to answer questions about a YouTube video will be integrated into the official app or website.
Background - YouTube Premium Experiment AI Feature
YouTube Premium has had an experimental feature where you can ask an AI questions about the video you're watching in the YouTube Android app.
Here is a link to the mention of this feature and a demonstration of what it looks like (provided by the original announcement)
Here is a few screenshots from my experiment with the experimental feature:
[image]Info page describing the experimental AI feature
[image]Viewing in the app to activate AI tool under "Ask" button
[image]Initial screen when asking AI tool
[image]User questions to the AI and AI answers
[image]Demonstration of an "off topic" question
Resolving "YES"
This resolves "YES" if the following are met before the end of 2024:
An AI is designed to answer questions about the currently viewed video
The AI in questions was made by the team at YouTube/Google
A 3rd party AI tool would not resolve this market.
The AI must not require another extension, app, or anything that goes beyond the YouTube app or website
The AI must be generally available to the (US) public and not part of an "experiment"
Access can be free or paid but must be reasonably easily enabled by a casual user. There can be an internal setting to switch the feature on but it must not be designated as an "experimental" feature.
Note that Google tends to use the word "beta" for many of its products even when very few people would consider them as "beta". If this AI feature appears with the wording of "beta", I believe that it could still be fair to resolve this market as "YES" (assuming all other criteria are met). So I'm avoiding using that term to determine how to resolve this market but open to feedback on this.
The AI does not have to be available on all videos but should be reasonably available to recently uploaded videos
This is the most subjective part in my opinion. I'll likely focus on a small handful of educational YouTube channels such as PBS Space Time and SciShow. I'm open to discussion for what seems like a fair judgement on this.
Resolving "NO"
This will resolve "NO" if not all the criteria above for resolving "YES" are met.
Notes
AI Performance & Capabilities
The performance of the AI is not part of the criteria for this market. Even if the AI is subpar, this market would resolve (assuming all other criteria under "YES" is met). The AI may only use limited data available to it such as just the captions or subtitles. For this market, it's not required to consider video frames, audio, etc. as long as it can generally answer questions similar to the system shown in the "Background" section.
Past YouTube Premium Experiment
Note that the past YouTube Premium benefit of accessing this AI feature does not fulfill the full "YES" criteria since it was specifically deemed as an "experiment". However, if the same tool was released without the "experiment" designation, it would resolve this market.
EDITS
20231221
Clarify to generally available to the US public (where I reside)
|
2023-12-21T11:36:45
|
2024-12-31T13:48:19
|
2024-12-31T13:48:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yFFh6HhAwpoVnnjEgO3B
|
Will Yekaterina Duntsova be a candidate in Russia's 2024 presidential election?
|
A presidential election is planned in Russia for 15-17 March 2024.
Yekaterina Duntsova intends to run for president. She openly opposes the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Elections in Russia aren't free and fair. Opposition to the invasion is repressed.
I will resolve yes if she's admitted as a presidential candidate, i. e. if she's present in the ballot papers. I will resolve NO otherwise. I might resolve NO early if she's officially barred, dies, etc.
I will resolve N/A if the presidential elections aren't held (e. g. if they are cancelled, postponed, Russia ceases to exist, the post of the president of Russia ceases to exist, etc.)
|
2023-12-21T10:50:45
|
2024-03-14T12:59:00
|
2024-03-14T13:16:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2jC9ydBbfVaPe78E5Ker
|
Will Levels.fyi's next report claim that software engineer salaries continued to decline through 2024?
|
According to Levels.fyi's end of year pay report reports, salaries for all tech jobs have been decreasing from 2021 until the start of 2023 2024. Will their next end of year pay report show this trend buckling or holding steady?
Resolves N/A if they do not publish such a report.
|
2023-12-21T10:12:04
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-09T12:33:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WBO9jUW9P7vSVUCylH7t
|
Will Israel be removed from Eurovision 2024?
|
Reportedly, the Icelandic and Finnish broadcasting companies, among others, are considering pulling out of the Eurovision Song Contest 2024 unless Israel is removed.
Will Israel be removed from the contest? This resolves YES if Israel is removed for any reason, including them withdrawing, and resolves NO if Israel is still in the contest as of the first semifinal.
|
2023-12-21T08:20:13
|
2024-05-07T14:59:00
|
2024-05-10T10:26:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-K3SwlLuKItg51rrw70PO
|
Will North Korea announce a formal regime succession plan by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-21T08:16:40
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T09:04:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7iVZck650SeyA0UKeVwR
|
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2023-2024 NBA Championship?
|
This question will be closed by June 30, 2024. The champion could be crowned as early as June 14, 2024.
|
2023-12-21T07:32:30
|
2024-06-17T20:01:59
|
2024-06-17T20:01:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EsGcblrEbmq1InthBN0C
|
Will Suno AI create a 24/7 AI-generated music radio station in 2024?
|
[tweet]Seems like an obvious next step for them. Will they do it?
Can be free or paid. Custom or fixed stations. Internet or actual radio waves. As long as you can tune in and there's no end to the music.
Radio station can be maintained by a 3rd-party as long as there's a deal with Suno .
|
2023-12-21T07:24:27
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-27T14:18:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2hXsW8icDbOl6oYiPAKE
|
Will the US Supreme Court reverse the Colorado’s Supreme Court decision to bar Trump from the ballot?
|
"Colorado’s top court ruled on Tuesday that former President Donald J. Trump is disqualified from holding office again because he engaged in insurrection with his actions leading up to the Jan. 6 storming of the Capitol, an explosive ruling that is likely to put the basic contours of the 2024 election in the hands of the U.S. Supreme Court." (source)
"Mr. Trump’s campaign said immediately that it would appeal the decision to the U.S. Supreme Court. The Colorado justices anticipated that likelihood by putting their ruling on hold at least until Jan. 4; if Mr. Trump appeals before then, the hold will continue until the Supreme Court rules." (source)
Trump is currently disqualified from holding office by Colorado; AKA his name cannot appear on any Colorado state ballot (Republican primary, general election).
Resolves YES if:
the US Supreme Court justices take up the case
and reverses Colorado's ruling
Resolves NO if:
the US Supreme Court justices do not agree to review the case
or they review the case and uphold Colorado's ruling
|
2023-12-21T06:33:20
|
2024-03-04T08:21:50
|
2024-03-04T08:21:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ze9yXg5Oq8ppdbEi1ADg
|
Will Suno AI Reach 100k Twitter followers in 2024?
|
https://twitter.com/suno_ai_
[image]
|
2023-12-21T03:25:20
|
2025-01-01T02:59:00
|
2025-01-06T18:47:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MzsHBKLMmILgNnRLwZys
|
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
|
Either by Peace Treaty... or outright Victory by one side...
|
2023-12-20T17:20:32
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-11T00:19:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EKhoUm8nRlnYb6AuqoBm
|
Will the Israel/Hamas conflict conclusively end in 2024 ?
|
Either by Peace Treaty... or Victory by one side and Surrender of the other.
|
2023-12-20T17:07:29
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-16T10:36:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bCd3Z8ojj1AvgKCHxm9z
|
Will the United States Congress pass new aid to Ukraine by end of Jan 2024?
|
Package must have >$1b in new aid to Ukraine by Jan 31st. Same bill must be passed by both the Senate and House to count. Will not wait for POTUS to sign it for YES, if it passes both chambers & is then en route to Biden, YES instantly wins.
If >$1b in new Ukraine aid does not pass by Jan 31st, NO wins.
|
2023-12-20T16:57:40
|
2024-01-31T20:59:00
|
2024-02-02T05:24:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iKovOyF2cU3vqQL9lqjp
|
Will Dune: Part Two make over 600 million dollars at the worldwide box office? (Before Feb 2025)
|
See also my other market (>170 million domestic):
https://manifold.markets/asmith/will-dune-part-two-make-over-170-mi
|
2023-12-20T16:20:39
|
2024-04-01T20:10:59
|
2024-04-01T20:10:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r8ov8qpSw4lrFX5G1Xlj
|
Will Marvel’s Echo be good? 🧏🤜🦸♀️
|
Echo, played by Alaqua Cox, was first introduced in Hawkeye (2021), and will finally be getting her own show on January 9th, 2024.
Disney has also revealed that all six episodes will hit both Disney+ and Hulu simultaneously. Echo will not only be the first Disney+ series to embrace the binge model pioneered by Netflix but also their first series with a TV-MA rating. It's also been announced that Echo will be the first project released under the Marvel Spotlight banner, which has been created for shows that exist within the MCU continuity but focus more on gritty, realistic and character-driven stories, as opposed to the cosmic and fantastical side explored in the rest of the shared universe.
‘Echo’: Trailer, Cast, Release Date, and Everything We Know So Far About the Marvel Series
One week after Echo (2024) is released, will it be rated a 6.5 or higher on IMDb?
Past Marvel TV IMDb ratings:
What If…? - 7.4
Loki - 8.2
I Am Groot (shorts) - 6.7
Secret Invasion - 5.9
She-Hulk - 5.3
Ms. Marvel - 6.3
Moon Knight - 7.3
Hawkeye - 7.5
The Falcon and the Winter Soldier - 7.1
WandaVision - 7.9
|
2023-12-20T15:57:24
|
2024-01-16T21:37:51
|
2024-01-16T21:37:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LshQuP9LJfjASQMCXBba
|
Will the Supreme Court uphold Colorado's disqualification of Trump from 2024 ballot?
|
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/20/us/politics/trump-supreme-court-election.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/19/us/politics/trump-colorado-ballot-14th-amendment.html
|
2023-12-20T15:17:35
|
2024-03-04T14:24:06
|
2024-03-04T14:24:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eHKRv7Ljz6MxcRGimUWL
|
Will the English Wikipedia Have More than 6942000 Pages by Christmas 2025?
|
According to This Page, will English Wikipedia exceed 6,942,000 pages in size? This will resolve on Christmas Day in the JST time zone in 2025. We're talking about the "content pages", not "pages". If the page at the URL goes down, we also change the source of resolution to the best approximation or location.
Screenshot at the time of this market's creation:
[image]
|
2023-12-20T14:46:49
|
2025-01-25T13:01:47
|
2025-01-25T13:01:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RJrOtMCjVb8SV2culwFO
|
Will Labour win a Majority in the next election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-20T07:43:01
|
2024-07-11T07:56:06
|
2024-07-11T07:56:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PTFi9JjzDqy0rhHwhhTI
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the New York Giants in their Week 16 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Eagles win
No - Giants win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-12-20T07:37:26
|
2023-12-25T16:54:12
|
2023-12-25T16:56:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7qHeYlPhbPzDL4NPuaH6
|
Will the Supreme Court rule 9-0 overturning the Colorado ruling barring Trump from the ballot per 14th amendment?
|
Ex-White House lawyer says Supreme Court could rule ‘9-0’ in possible Trump 14th Amendment case
Resolves YES if the US Supreme Court rules 9-0 that Trump is eligible to appear on the ballot in Colorado for the US 2024 Presidential election, otherwise NO.
|
2023-12-20T06:57:32
|
2024-03-04T08:14:50
|
2024-03-04T08:14:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cuhcqT1t9L5GUwf0heAr
|
Will Donald Trump be on the 2024 Presidential ballot in Colorado?
|
The Colorado Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is not eligible to hold the office of President under the US constitution's insurrection clause:
A majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/trump-colorado-presidential-ballot-disqualified-14th-amendment
They have ruled that he should not appear on the ballot for the Republican presidential primary on 5th March, but his team will presumably appeal this decision to the US Supreme Court.
There is speculation that if Trump is the Republican candidate for President (currently a n 85% chance - @/BruceGrugett/will-donald-trump-be-the-republican), the Colorado Supreme Court ruling would stop him from appearing on the ballot in the general election.
Will he appear on the ballot?
If Donald Trump appears on the ballot as the Republican nominee, this market will resolve to YES
If Donald Trump appears on the ballot as the nominee for any other party or as an independent candidate, this market will resolve to YES
If Donald Trump does not appear on the ballot and it is not possible to vote for him (or the only way to vote for him is to write his name in), this market will resolve to NO
|
2023-12-20T06:19:57
|
2024-11-04T15:59:00
|
2024-11-05T09:54:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CBKqD6Y9rWAwOuZxV6Du
|
Will Russia ban usage of YouTube in 2024?
|
Will resolve "Yes" if Roskomnadzor will list YouTube.com in a registry of blocked websites: https://eais.rkn.gov.ru/ , or an English language mirror https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/
|
2023-12-20T03:37:35
|
2024-12-31T12:59:00
|
2024-12-31T14:48:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wsWMoIhsYTBxQP37zwrt
|
Will OpenAI be involved in a big scandal related to the US 2024 Elections?
|
I was reading the information and saw that ”OpenAI Overhauls Content Moderation Efforts as Elections Loom”
This made me wonder if they will be successful in their efforts.
If something happens where OpenAI technologies are used to influence the elections in some way and this becomes a big story that is being reported by major news outlets for 2+ weeks then this question resolves to Yes.
|
2023-12-20T03:25:10
|
2024-12-31T12:47:09
|
2024-12-31T12:47:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GCo4epJD8wJKuWaQvxfo
|
Will Amazon layoff more than 1000+ employees before February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-20T03:12:50
|
2024-01-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-15T01:49:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ld2o8PPaHdojFRwuogOH
|
Will Google layoff more than 1000+ employees before February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-20T03:12:28
|
2024-01-31T14:59:00
|
2024-02-05T22:31:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M6BhKhJfafstrvG5yz1z
|
Will Alphabet Inc spin YouTube off through IPO by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-20T00:44:03
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-07T05:18:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BDmKfcrCv0mheMiDqgvN
|
Will Hamas negotiate to release more 10/7 hostages before a permanent ceasefire ?
|
On 12/19/2023, Israeli president Herzog declared his country was ready to an humanitarian pause to enable the release of hostages.
Hamas answered "We affirm our position of categorically rejecting to hold any form of negotiations over prisoners exchange under the continuing Israeli genocidal war. We are, however, open to any initiative that contributes to ending the aggression on our people and opening the crossings to bring in aid and provide relief to the Palestinian people"
Will resolve :
to YES if Hamas accept a limited scope pause and release more hostages during that pause , even if it morph to a permanent ceasefire later,
to NO if a permanent ceasefire is required before any more hostage is released by Hamas ,
to N/A if Hamas is removed from power OR permanent ceasefire is reached without hostages being released by them,
as soon as any hostage is released by Hamas OR ceasefire is reached OR both OR Hamas is effectively removed from power over the hostages
|
2023-12-19T23:41:22
|
2025-01-19T20:55:33
|
2025-01-19T20:55:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NZZE2Iczhn5iYJK7yc4X
|
Will the price of Bitcoin hit $150k by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-19T23:20:13
|
2024-12-31T11:59:00
|
2024-12-31T23:23:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D9Za3bYQsp9e5y3DBdxh
|
Will Chelsea FC win the Carabao Cup (League Cup)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-19T22:56:10
|
2024-02-26T11:59:00
|
2024-02-26T22:04:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-edAMrKRWxGd7HEDO7idL
|
Will the U.S. Supreme Court rule, by 1/20/2025, that Trump is disqualified to be President under the 14th Amendment?
|
This will resolve to YES if, by the end of January 20, 2025, the US Supreme Court has ruled that Donald Trump is disqualified from the office of President of the United States under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
|
2023-12-19T20:43:54
|
2025-01-20T20:59:00
|
2025-01-22T08:03:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PDYui5pGPqtsY9Cw8ahW
|
Will SpaceX perform at least 144 successful orbital launches in the year 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-19T18:50:19
|
2025-01-01T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T17:43:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hFAjnTqSUJeeajFGaZYR
|
Will the 2024 Super Bowl be the most watched of all time? 🏈🏆📺
|
The most viewed NFL championship game of all time was 2015’s Super Bowl XLIX, where 114.8M people watched the New England Patriots defeated the Seattle Seahawks. The second most viewed Super Bowl was last year (2023) with 113.0 viewers [more data].
Be it the Taylor Swift effect, or people really excited to see Usher, will 2024 set a new record for Super Bowl viewership?
|
2023-12-19T18:43:03
|
2024-02-12T19:06:41
|
2024-02-12T19:06:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tIt3qe5d1OrJyNlUcr4v
|
Will there be a sub 7 minute Minecraft speedrun by the end of 2024?
|
Specifically in the Minecraft 1.16 Java edition Any % RSG category. Resolves based on this website:
https://www.speedrun.com/mc
|
2023-12-19T18:25:10
|
2025-01-01T16:48:16
|
2025-01-01T16:48:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DHPHWzuwtOgFfaafu1su
|
Will The Colorado Supreme Court Decision Barring Trump from Running in 2024 Be Overturned by the US Supreme Court?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-19T17:59:52
|
2024-03-05T12:33:26
|
2024-03-05T12:33:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SiNNPaZcO405TUHHEtay
|
Will Trump appear on the presidential primary ballot in Colorado in the 2024 election?
|
Context: Trump is ineligible for office under 14th Amendment’s ‘insurrectionist ban,’ Colorado Supreme Court rules - this decision is being appealed to the US Supreme Court.
Resolves YES if Trump is on the Colorado primary ballot for US President in the 2024 election, otherwise NO.
Examples to clarify:
If he's deemed ineligible but he is on the ballot, that's still a YES. This might theoretically happen if he's ruled ineligible but such ruling happens after the ballots have been finalized.
If he's on the ballot, but drops out after the ballots have been finalized, that's also still a YES.
If he is not on the ballot, but is eligible for write-in votes, that's still a NO.
|
2023-12-19T17:46:09
|
2024-03-01T20:59:00
|
2024-03-03T13:55:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NgFuWmtiH93E8f2cfZsl
|
Will President Trump be on the Colorado primary ballot on March 5th?
|
Not as a write-in candidate
Resolves to N/A if there is no primary vote for whatever reason
Resolves to N/A if the CO GOP does a caucus, not a primary.
|
2023-12-19T16:37:07
|
2024-03-04T07:03:54
|
2024-03-04T07:03:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-61Hxb3mzga61Dj29j8pS
|
Will the Supreme Court rule unanimously to keep trump on the CO primary ballot?
|
Trump was just removed from the CO primary ballot by the state supreme court. Will the Supreme Court unanimously rule to keep Trump on the ballot?
This question will resolve YES if the Supreme Court rules to keep Trump on the CO primary ballot without any dissents. It will resolve NO if the court decides not to take the case up or if there are dissents. A Dissent(s) in-part without any full dissents will resolve to 50%.
UPDATE (Feb 8): If the opinion to keep Trump on the ballot is unanimous, but the majority opinion or any concurring opinions state that trump should be removed only if congress enforces Section 3 or if he is convicted, this question will still resolve YES.
|
2023-12-19T16:17:51
|
2024-03-04T07:04:09
|
2024-03-04T07:04:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KNjkqHvNHAfTNeeGAk5G
|
Will SCOTUS overturn the decision of the Colorado Supreme Court that bars Trump from participating in the primary?
|
YES if they rule that Trump is allowed to be on the ballot
|
2023-12-19T16:16:27
|
2024-03-04T07:35:05
|
2024-03-04T07:35:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Osjih9L1NjaqGtxMkM00
|
Supreme Court upholds CO removal of Trump from the Ballot
|
If the federal Supreme Court upholds this ruling then this resolves Yes
If not then it resolves No
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/#:~:text=Washington%20%E2%80%94%20The%20Colorado%20Supreme%20Court,state's%20Republican%20presidential%20primary%20ballot.
|
2023-12-19T16:07:58
|
2024-03-08T06:46:51
|
2024-03-08T06:46:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mIreAY9RXJ7i6rp9Ccj2
|
Will Destiny drop the Melifesto in 2023?
|
Now that his divorce papers have been finalized, and Destiny claims that Melina is lying to try to get a $100k payment, will he drop the Melifesto before the year is over?
This auto-resolves to NO on 2024-01-01 if no Melifesto drop, resolves to YES if Melifesto drop before the auto-resolve date.
relevant logs: https://rustlesearch.dev/?username=destiny&start_date=2023-12-19&end_date=2023-12-19&channel=Destinygg
|
2023-12-19T15:51:50
|
2024-01-01T00:00:00
|
2024-01-04T13:08:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0STXoSff7OZ1TqczMxSa
|
Will Trump be legally allowed to run in the presidential primary in Colorado?
|
The supreme court of Colorado ruled on the 19th December 2023 that Trump is ineligible to run for US president and may not appear on the Republican primary ballot.
BBC News: Colorado Supreme Court kicks Trump off ballot
Donald Trump ineligible to run for US president in Colorado, state's supreme court rules, citing insurrection clause
Colorado Supreme Court: 2023 CO 63
No. 23SA300, Anderson v. Griswold - Election Law - Fourteenth Amendment - First Amendment - Political Questions - Hearsay.
In this appeal from a district court proceeding under the Colorado Election Code, the supreme court considers whether former President Donald J. Trump may appear on the Colorado Republican presidential primary ballot in 2024. A majority of the court holds that President Trump is disqualified from holding the office of President under Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution. Because he is disqualified, it would be a wrongful act under the Election Code for the Colorado Secretary of State to list him as a candidate on the presidential primary ballot. The court stays its ruling until January 4, 2024, subject to any further appellate proceedings.
|
2023-12-19T15:39:29
|
2024-04-14T15:23:14
|
2024-04-14T15:23:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-z3rcPqJXZCVjaOxIpY6A
|
Will SCOTUS reverse the Colorado Supreme Court's decision to bar Trump from the ballot?
|
Context:
[tweet]Will they take it on: @/DanMan314/will-scotus-grant-cert-take-on-the
Resolves YES if SCOTUS rules that Trump cannot be barred from the Republican primary ballot under the insurrection clause by the general election next year. This includes a ruling that is not a full reversal of the lower court's decision, so long as the effect is Trump being on the ballot in Colorado.
Resolves NO otherwise (including if they do not take on the case).
This market is about the Colorado court decision about the Republican primary, and will resolve to SCOTUS’s judgement on that. The general election close date is just the latest possible date I would expect it to happen.
|
2023-12-19T15:32:25
|
2024-03-04T08:03:02
|
2024-03-04T08:03:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wteySHxuzNdznn5zJQ5R
|
Will SCOTUS grant cert (take on) to Colorado's decision to bar Trump from appearing on the ballot by the end of July?
|
Context:
[tweet]
|
2023-12-19T15:31:18
|
2024-01-05T14:26:27
|
2024-01-05T14:26:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T6NP2jtGUmefdpjy3y5Z
|
Will the Houthis sink a ship in the Red Sea in 2023 or 2024?
|
Adding some caveats in response to some questions in the comments:
To resolve yes:
— the vessel length must exceed 100ft, so small patrol boats won’t count. I was intending ships, not small boats.
— for purposes of this market, ‘sink’ means the vessel is either a) completely submerged due to Houthi attack OR b) damaged beyond repair such that a third party sinks the vessel rather than tow it to safe harbor.
|
2023-12-19T13:19:43
|
2024-03-02T10:53:03
|
2024-03-02T10:53:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v4AJbiawvr1CXtXCkf0z
|
Will Cori Bush win re-election to the House in 2024
|
Cori Bush is running for re-election to the US House of Representatives in 2024. Will she win the election? If she loses, chooses not to run, or chooses to run for a different office, this question will resolve NO. If she loses in a primary, dies, or is incapacitated and not re-elected, this question will resolve NO.
|
2023-12-19T12:29:24
|
2024-08-06T20:13:00
|
2024-08-06T20:13:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Pdkho4MtDBFh4G1I77Go
|
Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed?
|
Will the 2024 presidential election result be disputed? The 2000 (Bush versus Gore), 2016 (Clinton versus Trump), and 2020 (Biden versus Trump) elections are examples of disputed results that would cause this market to resolve yes.
|
2023-12-19T09:50:46
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-07T00:32:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-407sgFVx82ZAvHRA7L1s
|
Stock Market: Will the S&P 500 index trade above 4800 during 2023?
|
Bloomberg ticker SPX Index. Just has to trade one tick above 4800 by market close 12/29/2023. As of the time of asking the question (morning of 12/19) the highest value recorded is 4,749.52.
I will resolve yes when I become aware that it has exceeded 4800, and no on 12/29 if it does not do so.
|
2023-12-19T06:27:20
|
2023-12-29T14:33:13
|
2023-12-29T14:33:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xmqvDKQ9CZyJv6JJXtbD
|
Israel will begin paying Jews from around the world to move into Gaza by May 2024?
|
Will it happen and will it begin this quickly?
Clarifying statement:
An open offer to occupy Gaza in exchange for any type of monetary gain proposed by anyone in Israel followed by actions to commit those monetary gains towards settlements within Gaza or purely for personal use by those who wish to claim territory within the land
If there is no construction started or physical occupation by a jew not previously stationed within Gaza or clear and confirmed plans to do such by the end of May the result would end in No
Most importantly money will have to be moved for the specific purpose of occupying what is currently considered Gaza by the end of May
and to be even more specific it needs to be easily secured information that will be linked to in the comment section in the result of a yes
|
2023-12-19T02:26:32
|
2024-05-31T20:59:00
|
2024-08-31T00:21:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lAFuIxiA2wIFy7Tl0id5
|
Will Michigan QB JJ McCarthy return to college football for another season?
|
Will JJ McCarthy, the current quarterback for the University of Michigan football team, return for another college football season?
JJ has been projected as a first-round draft pick. As of December 18, he has indicated that he hasn’t made a decision yet regarding the draft (https://x.com/umgoblog/status/1736856807795024161).
The deadline to declare for the NFL Draft is January 15, 2024.
|
2023-12-18T22:36:07
|
2024-01-14T10:27:58
|
2024-01-14T10:27:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ycoAYtUeLqEdWiNfkxqM
|
Will chat gpt 5 be released before 2025
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-18T21:44:28
|
2025-01-01T18:57:18
|
2025-01-01T18:57:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VdCFr6W3ijPlTqpabCls
|
Will OpenAI release GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 before April 2024?
|
This market resolves yes if OpenAI releases a more capable LLM before April 2024. I am assuming this will be called GPT 4.5 or GPT 5, but it still counts if it has another name. A larger context window does not count, a jump like GPT 3 to GPT 3.5 does.
For this market, I am defining "release" as making the model available to end users, whether in a closed beta or a full release. So this excludes OAI employees using the model, or it being provided to Microsoft or contracted red teamers.
If no such model is released by April, this market resolves no.
For more markets on this subject, see the Dashboard.
@/Joshua/when-will-openai-broadly-release-gp
@/Joshua/will-openai-release-gpt-45-or-gpt-5
|
2023-12-18T13:51:12
|
2024-04-01T00:00:55
|
2024-04-01T00:00:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Yy06B5eGENG445xmqMPh
|
Will there be 20+ LLMs that match or outperform GPT-3.5's performance by the end of 2024?
|
As of market creation, there are a few, but not 20. Off the top of my mind, we have
Mistral Mixtral
Inflection-2
Anthropic Claude 2
Google Gemini Pro
Grok.
GPT-4
|
2023-12-18T13:33:12
|
2024-10-26T22:02:35
|
2024-10-26T22:02:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n4wnFBt62Xrh9tlp3MwO
|
Will Figma IPO before the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES on the date of an IPO, if it happens on or before December 31, 2024. Unusual market structures like direct listings also count as long as the public can buy Figma stock.
May resolve NO early if e.g an IPO date is set for early 2025.
Resolves NO if they get acquired or if a company announces a deal to acquire Figma.
|
2023-12-18T10:47:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:27:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-V4zspFZRk4NXLnK3RnCe
|
Will the Dodgers have the best record in the MLB in 2024? ⚾️🧢🏆
|
The Los Angeles Dodgers are annually one of the best teams in the regular season (we don’t need to talk about the postseason here).
Will the Dodgers have the best regular season record in baseball in 2024 (tie resolves YES)?
Past years’ data:
2023: Braves [104-58]
2022: Dodgers [111-51]
2021: Giants [107-55]
2020: Dodgers [43-17]
2019: Astros [107-55]
|
2023-12-18T09:16:43
|
2024-09-28T16:30:23
|
2024-09-28T16:30:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-s5NmpEH5MpNqcbwbU0z8
|
Will "Mean Girls" (2024) gross >$30M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Mean Girls" (2024) grosses more than $30,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11762114/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
I will use the "Domestic Opening" listed on BoxOfficeMojo, however it is defined. For a concrete example, the "Domestic Opening" for "Oppenheimer" would have been $82,455,420.
For context, AFAIK, typically that "Domestic Opening" number is the 3-day total (plus Thursday previews) for North America (e.g. it wouldn't include a holiday Monday). But that's just my informal understanding, not a rule for resolution—I will use their "Domestic Opening", however they calculate it.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by January 19th, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image]
|
2023-12-18T09:06:24
|
2024-01-16T14:34:11
|
2024-01-16T14:34:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dM1DIFEEdP8rk4x8uVDQ
|
Will there be a new oldest person in space in 2024? 👵🏾👨🚀🚀
|
William Shatner set the record as the oldest person to go to space at the age of 90. Will this record be broken in 2024?
Counting this based on crossing the Kármán line (the widely recognized boundary between the atmosphere and space about 63 miles above the Earth).
|
2023-12-18T06:56:58
|
2024-08-19T15:48:40
|
2024-08-19T15:48:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EnBQuaUHvXIXECQ3ZAZd
|
Will TESLA become a bigger company than META (Facebook) by market cap in 2024?
|
Current:
[image]Related
[markets]
|
2023-12-18T05:58:26
|
2024-12-31T00:00:00
|
2025-01-03T10:13:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7ioavRbe29k1s42GsNYr
|
Will any room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor be discovered before 2026?
|
must be legit.
Ambient pressure
|
2023-12-18T05:48:15
|
2025-01-31T00:00:00
|
2025-01-31T23:37:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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