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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-Xoqg3xNZNr9bJxW4LZ23
|
Will Donald Trump tweet >=20 times in 2024?
|
Will Donald Trump, the former president of the United States of America, send out 20 or more tweets in 2024?
Terminology: Twitter = X; posts = tweets.
Retweets/Reposts do not count as tweets for this market. Replies do. Must be on his official account, or another account that is known publicly to be his.
|
2023-12-18T05:28:51
|
2024-08-18T12:02:27
|
2024-08-18T12:02:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M7LMKpPtpRDhLmwVinD7
|
Will Apple sell 500,000 units of Vision Pro in 2024?
|
This refers to the global sale of Apple Vision Pro units.
|
2023-12-18T05:23:25
|
2024-12-31T09:31:00
|
2025-01-01T15:29:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ftX4Sqe7YYsiAagKIsiS
|
Will Meta release an API for Threads in 2024?
|
i.e. whether or notThreads will get an official API open to 3rd parties.
|
2023-12-18T05:19:07
|
2024-07-15T15:31:34
|
2024-07-15T15:31:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UhD1qYwsasTzDmqEIj5I
|
Was Biden Motorcade Crash not an Accident?
|
This poll will resolve as YES if at least one major news outlet reports that the driver who crashed into President Joe Biden's motorcade on 12/17/2023 acted with the intent to harm the President or disrupt his travel. Otherwise, the poll will resolve as NO.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/car-collides-with-vehicle-president-bidens-motorcade-delaware-witness-2023-12-18/
|
2023-12-17T19:32:14
|
2023-12-18T13:45:49
|
2023-12-18T13:45:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-k9y8eg4aPFIRdRsNIhZE
|
Will Bitcoin close higher on December 18 than it closed on December 17?
|
Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting
Previous Close: $41,410.30
This market is part of the Bitcoin Forecasting December League 2023. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
1 | 3000
2 | 1500
3 | 500
4 | 300
5 | 200
6 | 150
7 | 125
8 | 100
9 | 75
10 | 50
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-12-17T13:57:29
|
2023-12-18T15:00:00
|
2023-12-18T17:09:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sq9NYvP5iFd5Y1D080ms
|
Will the richest person alive have a net worth of over 300 billion at the end of 2024?
|
Estimation given by https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/
|
2023-12-17T13:50:49
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:30:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dZNL7VsGE1snkyqAvhPO
|
Will Google release an official mobile app for Google Bard (now renamed Gemini) by the end of 2024?
|
Will Google release an official app for Google Bard (now renamed Gemini) by the end of 2024?
It could be for Android, iOS or both.
EDIT:
Google has officially released the Gemini mobile app for Android users. Although it's not available yet for all regions, it resolves this question to YES.
Play Store link: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.google.android.apps.bard
Source:
(https://www.youtube.com/embed/b5Fh7TaTkEU?si=StBxefRnTRt_Xnxe)
|
2023-12-17T13:38:04
|
2024-02-15T10:24:37
|
2024-02-15T10:24:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SUohUfKtMxXzrHSd1cgT
|
Canada Politics: Will Jagmeet Singh remain the leader of the New Democratic Party through 2024?
|
This will resolve to YES if Jagmeet Singh remains the leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada through all of 2024. It will resolve to NO if he stops being the leader of the party for any reason
|
2023-12-17T13:11:33
|
2024-12-31T20:28:36
|
2024-12-31T20:28:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KvAaQU4npLUJz1is0iJY
|
Canada Politics: Will Justin Trudeau remain the leader of the Liberal party through 2024?
|
This will resolve to YES if Justin Trudeau remains the leader of the Liberal Party of Canada through all of 2024. It will resolve to NO if he stops being the leader of the party for any reason.
|
2023-12-17T13:05:10
|
2024-12-31T20:27:44
|
2024-12-31T20:27:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nrgjHp8ugFUpNtef9mKU
|
Israel-Hamas temporary ceasefire before April 1st, 2024?
|
This market will resolve YES if there is a ceasefire announced between Israel and Hamas that is accompanied by a stop of fighting for atleast one day. The official announcement of a ceasefire, truce, or pause, must be reported by reputable sources and confirmed by both Israel and Hamas. The actual stop in fighting can be confirmed by official sources and/or open source intelligence.
If the war ends before April 1st, 2024, and hostilities between Hamas and Israel end, that will also cause the market to resolve YES.
If by April 1st, 2024, the conditions causing this market to resolve as YES have not been reached, the market will resolve NO. Please ask any clarifying questions.
Market for future dates with the same terms:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/mint/when-will-there-be-an-israelhamas-t)
|
2023-12-17T11:34:54
|
2024-04-01T07:08:46
|
2024-04-01T07:08:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FF1jMLyfe4VZ5MofNkjQ
|
Will Chris Christie drop out of the race for President before the New Hampshire primary?
|
Before the first votes in Dixville Notch are cast.
|
2023-12-17T10:33:01
|
2024-01-10T14:36:13
|
2024-01-10T14:36:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vfop7vRiPpNXonkgQTsD
|
Will Ron DeSantis drop out of the race for President before the New Hampshire primary?
|
Before the first votes in Dixville Notch are cast.
|
2023-12-17T10:30:34
|
2024-01-21T12:19:48
|
2024-01-21T12:19:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Sr4mDrxKPqeVMVzecl8S
|
Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2024?
|
Resolves as YES if Xi Jinping is the leader of China on December 31st 2024.
Questions with the same criteria:
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-193ddd0899e4 (this question)
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-f4bb79318ae8
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-6297433c3df1
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-bf8eed726e3c
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-85f49a8b8f9c
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-1c98244d8d58
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-e48b02725ad9
Related questions:
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-1d6af8492e40
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n
Other questions:
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-kim-jong-un-stop-being-the-lea
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-vladimir-putin-stop-being-the
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Xi_Jinping_%282018-09-11%29.jpg
Image source: www.kremlin.ru. Licensed under CC BY 4.0.
|
2023-12-17T05:55:10
|
2025-01-04T14:59:00
|
2025-01-17T04:55:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LyxBFBuJI2cZwNwnI8TF
|
Has GPT-4.5 already started rolling out?
|
Many people are observing ChatGPT-4 claim to be "gpt-4.5-turbo":
https://chat.openai.com/share/e0458ead-2b28-4344-941f-9adfaa13dfe0
I'm also seeing people say on Twitter that GPT-4 has gotten better in coding ability the last day or so.
It could be part of a rolling release or A/B test. Seems like an odd mistake for it to make, especially happening just after false leaks of @/Mira/will-gpt45-be-announced-on-thursday . Could be real, could be an OpenAI psyop, or could be a coincidence.
When GPT-4.5 is officially announced, will OpenAI mention in their announcement that these are genuine GPT 4.5 model interactions?
Resolves YES if OpenAI confirms that they have been slowly rolling out GPT 4.5 prior to the announcement. Either in announcement or by recording the model id in a traceable location(ChatGPT itself isn't reliable, but its system prompt would be).
Resolves NO if it is GPT 4.5 but it isn't confirmed anywhere.
Resolves NO if GPT 4.5 isn't released by end of year.
|
2023-12-17T05:21:03
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T00:05:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kvxVN3RIasJCSBuT9dKw
|
Will English Wikipedia Have More than 6,761,952 Pages by Christmas?
|
According to This Page, will English Wikipedia exceed 6,761,952 pages in size? This will resolve on Christmas Day in the JST time zone. (To be honest, I have no clue how to code in resolution, so it will be when I have a second to check in the morning.
I will not be betting on this question.
|
2023-12-17T03:50:34
|
2023-12-24T14:35:43
|
2023-12-24T14:35:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YZ5lGMF4N0CKk2PUIPhS
|
Will a Taiwanese, US, Filipino, Japanese or Vietnamese servicemember die confronting the China's military before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-17T03:17:31
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-23T04:23:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g0LFKhaQSi0oQYTU0W24
|
Will there be a war between Iran and Israel by the end of 2024
|
Resolving criteria:
1) formal war is declared (yes)
2) informal war is declared, which is commonly accepted as a war (Ukraine invasion, operation ensuing freedom, etc) (yes) - the current Israel intervention in Gaza is considered a war; the current relationship between Israel and Hezbollah is not considered a war. (Edit Oct 1, it is probably considered a war between Hezbollah and Israel now, however this does not include Iran as Iran has not joined the war)
3) 2024 ends (no)
Non resolving criteria
1) threats of war
2) minor bombing/ rocket attacks/ cyberwarfare (stuxnet would not resolve)
|
2023-12-17T01:35:53
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:02:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OH6C1MTVlSzUhRDuemUE
|
Will New Glenn be successfully recovered on its first recovery attempt?
|
To be successful, New Glenn's first stage must land on a barge or on land and remain upright. If New Glenn flies without recovery, or has a controlled splashdown in the Ocean, this question will defer until a barge or land recovery is attempted. The market will resolve upon confirmation of the above criteria by Blue Origin (either through social media, press release, or official livestream).
Update 2025-12-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on Recovery Attempt:
If the rocket fails before stage separation, it still counts as a recovery attempt.
|
2023-12-16T22:14:49
|
2025-01-15T23:21:46
|
2025-01-15T23:21:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Jea5oibZcAdz4kPEuSca
|
Will NVIDIA release at least one RTX 50-series GPU model in 2024?
|
Will resolve to YES if NVIDIA releases at least one model branded as RTX 50-series, also known as 5000 series. This includes any model name including the term "RTX", and a number greater or equal to 5000 but smaller than 6000. A release under a rebranded naming that does not satisfy those rules would not qualify for a YES.
Edit: Excludes the professional workstation cards such as the RTX 5000 Ada Generation and their mobile counterparts.
|
2023-12-16T21:10:08
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:04:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-U2Hzve6Y7H96TBO9icQU
|
Will unemployment rate in the United States reach 10% in 2024?
|
Will resolve YES if the unemployment rate is at 10% or higher at any point in 2024 in the United States according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Will resolve NO if unemployment rate remained under 10% for all of 2024 after data for the whole year is made public.
Source used for resolution:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE
Screenshot showing data up to November 2023 for reference:
[image]Related:
@/SIMOROBO/will-unemployment-rate-in-the-unite-0e2997d05ff0
Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution Date: The market will remain open until it is officially resolved on January 10. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-12-16T19:53:11
|
2025-01-10T14:21:50
|
2025-01-10T14:21:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xY5NnIbfXhiUwEIPvJ4d
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky get an op-ed in the NY Times or Washington Post by the end of 2024?
|
Any article by Yudkowsky (including as a co-author) appearing in either of these two publications.
I googled around and didn't see any that would apply, but articles published before this question goes live will not count.
January 27, 2024 Clarification: Just in case this comes up in the future, articles that appear in serious subsidiaries of either of these publications (i.e., The New York Times Magazine) will count. Articles that just quote Yudkowsky will not.
|
2023-12-16T19:13:22
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:43:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qAPB4Q4V71XnN43ZuACx
|
Will Valve release 'Neon Prime' /Deadlock some time in 2024?
|
Neon Prime is a new game being developed by Icefrog for Valve. Valve filed a trademark for 'Neon Prime' Oct 2022, but it was never approved. They recently filed a new trademark application in Nov 2023.
Info: https://tsdr.uspto.gov/#caseNumber=97625459&caseSearchType=US_APPLICATION&caseType=DEFAULT&searchType=statusSearch
|
2023-12-16T17:24:58
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T19:44:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JirZdCaPLHKYhDs0ZZbX
|
🗳️ Will Trump NOT Be Nominated AND DeSantis Be Elected?
|
Will Trump NOT Be Nominated AND DeSantis Be Elected?
Resolves Yes If Trump Is NOT Nominated & DeSantis Is Elected President
Resolves NO If Trump Is Nominated.
Resolves N/A If Either Pass Away Before This Can Resolve Yes/No.
Otherwise, This Will Resolve During Or After The RNC Convention (July 15th-18th 2024) OR Prior If Either Drops Out/Forced Out/Disqualified, etc.
CLARIFICATIONS/NOTES:
None as of 12/16/2023
DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET OR SOCIAL MEDIA NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
SIMILAR MARKETS
|
2023-12-16T17:00:07
|
2024-04-28T18:46:44
|
2024-04-28T18:46:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WprtmnhYFbmeraWYZCVx
|
Will an asteroid impact occur on Jupiter before April 2024?
|
Due to its large size and mass Jupiter has the highest frequency of impacts. Despite this, many are small or go by unnoticed.
The answer to this question depends on both the movements of astronomical bodies and the observations of humans.
This question will solve YES if before 1st of April 2024 UTC a Jupiter impact is recorded.
|
2023-12-16T14:57:20
|
2024-03-31T13:59:00
|
2024-04-01T23:09:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RZ08YNivFvFqP66Rm20E
|
Will the Transformer still be the Dominant AI architecture by mid 2024?
|
Will the model widely believed to have the best reasoning capabilities still be a Transformer by mid-2024?
|
2023-12-16T12:36:46
|
2024-06-30T14:59:00
|
2024-07-17T06:35:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5NcUz44DrGMLVTQHp3yp
|
Will March 2024 be the hottest March on record?
|
As per NOAA's global report for March, will March 2024 be the hottest recorded March? Note that this will close at the end of the month, but will only resolve once the results are officially posted.
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/
|
2023-12-16T07:18:36
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-16T17:00:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FfBYq0uy7DHVhUHU1Mza
|
Will a living US President (past or current) pass away before the end of 2024?
|
This list includes: Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump and Biden
|
2023-12-16T07:08:52
|
2024-12-29T14:15:05
|
2024-12-29T14:15:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OTqfTmXI1feACQwtHkos
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher at the end of 2024 than the end of 2023?
|
Resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes higher on the last day of trading in 2024 (December 27, 2024) then it does on the last day of trading of 2023 (December 29, 2023). This question closes one day before trading closes (December 26, 2024).
EDIT 12-18-2023: Fixed description indicating reverse of title
|
2023-12-16T06:28:01
|
2025-01-01T00:25:45
|
2025-01-01T00:25:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-exHdEIGx3VC1Y67x79Vp
|
Will we see Apple Vision Pro release before February 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-16T01:21:35
|
2024-01-13T17:12:26
|
2024-01-13T17:12:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uPgzUzvzvavmZb7uM3Ac
|
Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users before April 2024?
|
Free Access Conditions: The bet resolves YES if OpenAI offers GPT-4 (including variants like "GPT-4-lite" or similar) for free to ChatGPT users before April of 2024 under any of these conditions:
Permanent free access with limited usage (e.g., capped messages)
Limited trial access totaling four weeks (not necessarily consecutive)
Access through custom GPTs using GPT-4 on the GPT-Store.
Exclusion Criteria
Trials requiring credit card information and leading to automatic charges after the trial do not count towards this bet's resolution.
Access to GPT-4 through other platforms like Bing does not count.
Edge Cases
If a trial that doesn't lead to automatic charges starts in March and ends in April, this would count towards resolving the market to Yes.
If OpenAI requires a payment method for verification and doesn't apply automatic charges, then this would count toward resolving this question as Yes. However, this is highly unlikely since they use phone numbers for verification.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-gpt4-be-available-to-chatgpt-f-d2d3ffadbd8b?r=U29saQ)
|
2023-12-15T22:49:50
|
2024-03-31T14:59:00
|
2024-03-31T15:11:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H0bVhKaCt4lCHlZPLpxP
|
Will Apple's AI Assistant (Siri) stop being a joke before the second half of 2024?
|
A less catchy title would have been "Will Apple integrate a conversational GPT-3+ level LLM in their phone assistant before the second half of 2024?" but the one above sounds nicer and will get more traders.
I was reading the information and saw that Google plans a new 'Pixie AI assistant for Pixel phones based on the Gemini AI model. This made me wonder if this will encourage Apple to finally do something.
I don't expect Siri to write code for me but expect it to operate at least a ChatGPT 3 level in holding a conversation.
[image]I wrote a thread about this on Twitter a while ago with some stuff that I would love but don't expect Apple to do anytime soon:
[tweet][image]
|
2023-12-15T22:42:00
|
2024-06-30T14:59:00
|
2024-07-01T01:59:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZslgmdOyz0d0YqjTem3i
|
Will israel and hizballa significantly increase their conflict during the first half of 2024
|
Increase the conflict will be considered yes if at least one of the conditions:
1. will shoot more than 5 rockets at Israel every day for at least two weeks in a row
2.IDF will have direct land combat NOT by special forces on the land of Lebanon.
|
2023-12-15T22:01:46
|
2024-06-30T13:59:00
|
2024-07-01T00:44:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-69IJd2KBH9PchSRVPLdU
|
Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
|
https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933
[image]"Trifecta" here means "Republicans win the House, Senate, and Presidency". If they do not win a trifecta I will cancel the market. Otherwise I will resolve based on the non conditional version of this market.
The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/WilliamEhlhardt/will-prescribing-abortion-pills-be?r=RGF2aWRGV2F0c29u)
|
2023-12-15T18:24:05
|
2025-03-01T23:59:00
|
2025-03-02T00:23:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-055ENHyZ83ZeLsbskkW1
|
Will the 2023-24 Detroit Pistons become the worst NBA team of all time?
|
The 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats is considered to be the worst team in modern NBA history, winning 7 out of 66 regular season games with a win rate of .106.
Will the current iteration of the Detroit Pistons be able to defeat this record and score a record below .106? For market to resolve as YES, they must win 8 games or less across the entire 82-game NBA regular season. If the Detroit Pistons win 9 or more games, market will resolve as NO.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/dittopoop/will-the-202324-detroit-pistons-obt)
|
2023-12-15T18:11:37
|
2024-02-28T08:31:48
|
2024-02-28T08:31:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qnBtpJRjcU0y4fD99u3K
|
Will $TSLA close above 250.00 at the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-15T17:19:40
|
2023-12-29T15:30:32
|
2023-12-29T15:30:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kwPOvoqOhBvISmupolQQ
|
is elon musk going to sell twitter before 2025?
|
we all know musk has been doing some questionable decisions to the service of twitter, ¿it will sell it for the bad reception to these decisions or it will keep it till it sunks in?
|
2023-12-15T17:08:29
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-03T05:54:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LYTjZ7DEcXzO4hWsY2OP
|
Will Mistral AI company be bought by another company in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-15T17:06:22
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T20:42:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CkfnmVSQhKn64RTQ57w1
|
Will Polaris Tricolor be adopted as the Minnesota flag without modification?
|
Resolves YES if Minnesota state flag design F1953 (nicknamed "Polaris Tricolor", pictured below) is adopted without modification as the next flag of Minnesota.
[image]Resolves NO if a modified version of the flag design is adopted, or if a different flag design altogether is adopted, or if the current Minnesota flag remains in place through the end of 2025.
|
2023-12-15T16:03:21
|
2024-05-12T23:59:00
|
2024-05-15T17:07:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pZ8xwkJMPBSmuoldj7YR
|
Will SpaceX attempt a 'catch' with the 'chopsticks' on Starship's fifth 'orbital' test flight?
|
SpaceX currently plans to catch both Booster and Starship with the 'chopstick' arms on the side of the launch tower. This is a highly complex procedure that has not been tested before, and initial attempts could be physically and finacially destructive.
This market will resolve after the completion of the fifth OFT.
Resolution criteria:
The catch attempt can be made either for the Booster or Starship itself (or both).
'Attempt' will be defined as either vehicle making a clear approach run on the catch site. If the approach is aborted before the chopsticks have moved, the attempt will still be considered valid.
It seems to me that in practice, these approach runs can be considered to have started after Booster's boostback burn, and after Starship survives atmospheric reetry and places itself on the correct trajectory. I am open to discussion on this point, but I think other criteria would be more subjective.
If SpaceX announce they will attempt a catch but the flight test fails before the above criteria are met this will resolve NO.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-36869f2cbfb8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-6baebb2ebbc1)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-45c15ce48df3)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-89ffd8a6b863)(https://manifold.markets/embed/JoshuaWilkes/will-spacex-attempt-a-catch-with-th-ad6d782dd262)
|
2023-12-15T16:00:43
|
2024-10-13T05:36:32
|
2024-10-13T05:36:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-82sA3ZMRkk6WyH9SHSu6
|
Will the moon be nuked before 2025
|
The nuclear weapon must explode within at least 100 miles of the surface of the moon.
It must release energy equivalent to at least 10,000 tons of TNT
|
2023-12-15T13:57:27
|
2025-01-01T06:12:00
|
2025-01-02T18:27:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6y0xmA5FKRHE3o691eld
|
Will world coin be over 3$ at the end of 2024
|
Worldcoin is a cryptocurrency project that aims to distribute a new digital currency to as many people as possible, worldwide. The project was launched with the goal of fostering global financial inclusion. One of the key aspects of Worldcoin is its unique method of distribution. The organization behind Worldcoin uses a device called the "Orb" to scan individuals' irises to ensure that each person only claims their share once. This biometric data is used to create a unique identifier for each user, which is then anonymized and stored on the blockchain.
The project has generated discussion and controversy, particularly around privacy concerns related to the collection of biometric data. The creators of Worldcoin state that their approach is designed to prevent fraud and ensure equitable distribution, while also emphasizing their commitment to user privacy and data security.
This was written by gpt-4 I think it’s accurate but didn’t double checked itbecause I am lazy
|
2023-12-15T12:53:57
|
2024-12-31T08:59:00
|
2025-01-01T18:45:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IM7j1F7OWwHXInCHuZcX
|
Will the price of Bitcoin exceed $60,000 in 2024?
|
If during any 1 minute interval Bitcoin trades at a price above $60,000 on at least 2 of the 3 exchanges: Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance, this resolves true. If Bitcoin fails to reach the price by 2025 this resolves false.
|
2023-12-15T10:37:12
|
2024-02-28T06:40:45
|
2024-02-28T06:40:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-l0tSOaXlZrKRY6PVSw61
|
Will Ilhan Omar win re-election to the House in 2024?
|
The market resolves YES if Congresswoman Ilhan Omar wins re-election to represent ANY congressional district following the 2024 US election. The market resolves NO in any other case, including if she chooses not to run or runs for a different office instead besides House Representative. If for any reason, the result of the election is in doubt after the stated resolution date of this market, this market may be extended until the situation is resolved.
|
2023-12-15T09:51:13
|
2024-11-09T20:29:10
|
2024-11-09T20:29:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-INwyQfPwoHxaile5c3x6
|
Will any NFL team that makes the playoffs this season have a different head coach by June 1, 2024?
|
Resolves YES if any playoff team following the 2023 regular season has a different head coach by June 1, 2024 for any reason.
|
2023-12-15T08:37:57
|
2024-06-01T20:59:00
|
2024-06-02T06:50:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rjV4aZotCDp7DdzePhH1
|
Will Draymond Green play in an NBA game on or before January 10th, 2024?
|
The Warriors play the Pelicans at home Jan 10. That would the the 14th game since being ejected in Phoenix and suspended.
|
2023-12-15T06:27:02
|
2024-01-10T19:54:08
|
2024-01-10T19:54:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D9f5uu1NHQX7WQ2yccVT
|
Will Inside Out 2 make at least half as much domestically as Inside Out? 🧠😊😭
|
We’re just talking about the domestic box office here. Inside Out (2015) made $356.M in its original box office run (it was rereleased in 2020 and made <$0.5M).
Since COVID and the establishment of Disney+, no Pixar movie has made more than $154M, Elemental (2023)’s domestic total.
Inside Out 2 opens on June 14th, 2024. Will the sequel make at least ½ of the original’s total (which is $178.3M) at the domestic box office.
|
2023-12-15T06:10:59
|
2024-06-20T07:03:44
|
2024-06-20T07:03:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x0OCPnM7cQXho30TURSw
|
Will Warner Bros Discovery go bankrupt, be acquired, or cease operations before Jan 1st 2025?
|
Info: https://www.macroaxis.com/invest/ratio/WBD/Probability-Of-Bankruptcy#google_vignette
|
2023-12-15T06:04:23
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:43:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NAN8c3DjTe0ipS5Mgjf4
|
Will a convicted felon win the 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-14T22:32:57
|
2024-11-06T23:59:00
|
2024-11-14T09:07:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r4fqec1AJQopHUqgcdFd
|
Will Taylor Swift be mentioned in the 2024 US Presidential Debates?
|
This market will resolve YES immediately if the words "Taylor Swift" are uttered by any of the candidates or moderators during the main (non-VP) 2024 general presidential election debates in the United States. Other related words such as "Swifties" or even "Swift", if they clearly and unambiguously refer to Taylor Swift or her fans, will also cause this to resolve YES.
If there are no debates, this resolves N/A. If after the verified conclusion of all the debates the YES conditions are not met, this will resolve NO.
Please ask any clarifying questions.
|
2023-12-14T15:04:27
|
2024-11-05T13:15:37
|
2024-11-05T13:15:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YylQ2P2fCfAc1aU72mn1
|
Will 'Hentai' still be the #1 most popular worldwide search term on Pornhub for the year of 2024?
|
Hentai was the top search term on Pornhub (worldwide) for 2021, 2022 and 2023.
|
2023-12-14T13:58:40
|
2024-12-10T17:28:07
|
2024-12-10T17:28:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KJSIl2ddCPPrwGyUuIgQ
|
[Metaculus] Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?
|
Will Sweden join NATO before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20024/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if an official statement by NATO or the Country of Sweden, issued before January 1, 2025, declares that Sweden has joined NATO.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-12-14T13:04:56
|
2024-03-07T10:24:08
|
2024-03-07T10:24:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kJRll1n9ETYhjflsna1v
|
Will OpenAI give us a Christmas present i.e. new model?
|
PST Timezone. Since OpenAI employees need vacation time, I'll accept presents on December 26 too.
ONLY Christmas presents count - so a new model in the GPT-4 series must drop on exactly either Christmas(2023-12-25) or the day after(2023-12-26). Earlier or later days will NOT count.
|
2023-12-14T08:06:38
|
2023-12-24T23:59:00
|
2023-12-26T18:51:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4A1UEPpphRnYlNXB2guB
|
Will Spain beat Italy? ⚽ Euro 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-14T07:17:03
|
2024-06-20T13:55:08
|
2024-06-20T13:55:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-40cjB0c43U5M6vHrcYae
|
Is the "leak" of GPT-4.5 real?
|
https://twitter.com/daniel_nguyenx/status/1735260556892967170
[image]This prediction will resolve yes iff the OpenAI pricing page at: https://openai.com/pricing#language-models is updated with wording and details substantially similar to those in the X post and screenshot linked above.
|
2023-12-14T07:04:30
|
2024-06-30T21:59:00
|
2024-07-17T06:57:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZUcjextZ41nOQjCOWm5L
|
Will there be a by-election in Blackpool South (Scott Benton’s seat) before the next general election?
|
Blackpool South MP Scott Benton has been found to have broken lobbying rules and the standards watchdog has recommended a 35-day suspension:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2023/dec/14/blackpool-mp-scott-benton-faces-commons-suspension-over-lobbying-scandal
This could lead to a by-election in a the very interesting “red wall” seat of Blackpool South.
Will a by-election take place before the next general election?
If a by-election takes place, the market will resolve to YES
If Parliament is dissolved for a general election before any by-election is announced, the market will resolve to NO
If a by-election is announced but cancelled because Parliament has been dissolved for a general election, this market resolves to NO
Related market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
|
2023-12-14T02:04:56
|
2024-05-02T00:45:33
|
2024-05-02T00:45:33
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gRiiSpyxEjh8DTri717e
|
Will GPT-4.5 be released today? (Dec 14th)
|
has to be December 14th 2023 PST
|
2023-12-14T00:39:40
|
2023-12-14T20:36:41
|
2023-12-14T20:36:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-garPuj6E2xk8ElU6NMmJ
|
Will Captain America: Brave New World contain the Israeli Mossad agent superheroine Sabra?
|
Will resolve YES if a character named Sabra who is an Israeli Mossad agent is included in the move.
Will resolve NO if Sabra is removed, or she is no longer Israeli, or no longer a Mossad agent.
Will resolve N/A if the movie is not released or is canceled.
|
2023-12-13T23:49:09
|
2025-03-05T22:52:26
|
2025-03-05T22:52:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wPdXotkXjQBFWqhUtU4p
|
Will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?
|
https://twitter.com/alyssamvance/status/1734995576360443933
[image]The spirit of this question is "will the US make getting/giving/using abortion pills inevitably involve a federal felony", so it will resolve YES even if e.g. distributing (but not prescribing) becomes a felony.
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ShakedKoplewitz/at-the-end-of-march-2025-will-presc?r=V2lsbGlhbUVobGhhcmR0)
|
2023-12-13T18:55:41
|
2025-02-28T23:59:00
|
2025-03-02T20:13:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vYYvtVK1ZBDxCZAJSIMH
|
Will FED cut rates at their December 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:37:48
|
2024-12-18T11:57:25
|
2024-12-18T11:57:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kdoEGcSbporNw05I76xd
|
Will FED cut rates at their November 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:37:19
|
2024-11-07T14:59:00
|
2024-11-11T04:35:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KWy1zy4UrkDJSaXvlEpV
|
Will FED cut rates at their September 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:36:15
|
2024-09-18T12:08:24
|
2024-09-18T12:08:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DGbdnobHkCqYsnkrOO9h
|
Will FED cut rates at their July 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:34:17
|
2024-07-31T14:59:00
|
2024-08-01T08:28:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1na1yI4j34GIWN5CqyaK
|
Is TSLA going to be up in 2024?
|
TSLA is a pretty spiky stock, it was -65% in ‘22 and +94% in ‘23 (with a few weeks to go).
If I buy a share of TSLA at market open Jan 2nd 2024, will I have a profit on Dec 31st 2024?
|
2023-12-13T17:33:27
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-02T10:44:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G27J6b3k9rkS4ySh08ST
|
Will FED cut rates at their June 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:32:33
|
2024-06-12T14:59:00
|
2024-06-12T16:43:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lpy68pP3mc6TLCgqUQU2
|
Will FED cut rates at their April/May 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:31:07
|
2024-05-01T14:59:00
|
2024-05-03T05:14:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3uHa1kljfNWFdxjKIFEK
|
Will FED cut rates at their March 2024 meeting?
|
FED pivot is defined as the change in the approach of defining the upper bound of the target federal funds range, so-called 'interest rates'. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to "YES" if in mentioned in the title scheduled meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decides to decrease interest rates (over the level it was prior to the meeting), on any of its meetings.
calendar of meetings
[image]📅 FIND SUCH MARKET FOR OTHER DATES HERE
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
|
2023-12-13T17:30:33
|
2024-03-21T16:44:43
|
2024-03-21T16:44:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oCnR6kApsAj44QGKVMng
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on December 14 than it closed on December 13?
|
Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
1 | 5000
2 | 2500
3 | 1000
4 | 500
5 | 350
6 | 300
7 | 250
8 | 200
9 | 150
10 | 100
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-12-13T13:56:39
|
2023-12-14T11:00:00
|
2023-12-14T13:28:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sM0WtFN3eTYQCPYgN6ok
|
Will Germany's GDP grow in 2024?
|
The German Economic Institute forecasts -0,5% GDP growth for 2024 according to this news article.
[image]For resolution, I'll be using the price-adjusted GDP (preisbereinigtes BIP) from Destatis.
This is different than a "recession" (two consecutive quarters of negative growth).
Resolves YES if Destatis shows more than 0% GDP growth.
Resolves NO if Destatus shows 0% or less GDP growth. I'm not sure how they round, so +0,049% could result in NO if they publish it as "0,0%".
|
2023-12-13T12:55:15
|
2025-01-15T10:49:41
|
2025-01-15T10:49:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NkqxAyj1Ab29zJGVxZbn
|
Will a human win the annual 2024 Human vs Horse "Marathon" Race?
|
Info: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Man_versus_Horse_Marathon
Takes place in Wales every June. Despite the name it is not a full marathon, and is usually 22mi/35km long. The first time a human won the race on foot was in 2004. Humans won in both 2022 and 2023, but only four times total since 1980. Humans have an advantage if the temperature is hot that day, but horses benefit if the route is especially hilly.
|
2023-12-13T11:12:42
|
2024-07-13T13:52:28
|
2024-07-13T13:52:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Lp7fCeuS98ZuB1MoQM8X
|
Will Hunter Biden be charged with Contempt of Congress by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-13T11:05:54
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T05:13:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QThwVpXSfDjoMRVOcJl6
|
Will Bill Belichick be HC of a different NFL team by the 2024-25 NFL season?
|
Bill Belichick is the active HC for the New England Patriots. This market will resolve YES if Bill Belichick coaches a different NFL team by the start of the 2024-2025 NFL season. The market will resolve NO if Bill Belichick is coaching the New England Patriots, retired, or coaching any non-NFL sports teams full-time. Additionally, outcomes where Bill Belichick is an assistant coach or advisor to an NFL team (i.e. not a HC position) will resolve to NO.
|
2023-12-13T11:01:34
|
2024-09-01T23:59:00
|
2024-09-09T16:15:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1tvINfm3h0HKq8heTYzH
|
Will Bill Belichick be HC of a different NFL team by the 2024-25 NFL season?
|
Bill Belichick is the active HC for the New England Patriots. This market will resolve YES if Bill Belichick coaches a different NFL team by the start of the 2024-2025 NFL season. The market will resolve NO if Bill Belichick is coaching the New England Patriots, retired, or coaching any non-NFL sports teams full-time. Additionally, outcomes where Bill Belichick is an assistant coach or advisor to an NFL team (i.e. not a HC position) will resolve to NO.
|
2023-12-13T11:00:59
|
2024-09-01T23:59:00
|
2024-09-10T22:07:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6OPEEPbMcQ9IKt8eBDFa
|
Will Hungary approve Sweden for NATO before Turkiye does?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-13T10:24:15
|
2024-01-26T14:08:42
|
2024-01-26T14:08:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iOxytFVGwL4ChEZKG27C
|
Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon during 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-13T09:59:55
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:56:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h4ax1l5GgE6SSQMFXHBq
|
Will the SEC approve a spot Ether ETF by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-13T09:29:41
|
2024-07-23T09:43:36
|
2024-07-23T09:43:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KjtRz9zyauG1PdkbBGge
|
Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?
|
The Keys to the White House is a system used to predict the outcome of US presidential elections. It has been correct 9 out of 10 times, with its only failure being predicting that Al Gore would beat George Bush in 2000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/ItsMe/which-keys-will-the-democratic-cand)
|
2023-12-13T08:29:54
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-06T15:34:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cwCW9s0LH57w4OT67dIQ
|
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in the first half of 2024?
|
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before July 1, 2024? (This includes the rest of December 2023.) This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of linked markets, especially the earlier ones:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-659f3e632b12)(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934)(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-8cf89160dcb2)[markets]
|
2023-12-13T08:05:59
|
2024-07-02T14:59:00
|
2024-07-09T07:00:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6VcXDbHsBeAl4Hrx3NPu
|
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/10th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
|
The total power consumption could be estimated to be around 50-60 million kWh for training GPT-4.
1/10th of this energy = 5-6 million kWh
1/100th of this energy = 0.5-0.6 million kWh
See calculations below:
(https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQ5ZOCGcCO0a3xsDZbn1Li2EE7LQZYnXzV70F3G8qDCMoUTwdLZINHUDnvTQgVehS5D3tSdbSI4wYRE/pub?embedded=true)[markets]
|
2023-12-13T05:27:36
|
2025-01-10T14:22:32
|
2025-01-10T14:22:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-luXNEHeOTUiOVtEZNWjV
|
Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for >1 week)
|
I was browing Twitter and I saw a post by Karpathy postively talking about ChatBot Arena which is a platform for ranking LLMs based on human ratings. As expected OpenAI is holding positions 1, 2 and 3. I wonder if anyone will be able to take that #1 position for a full week. I will resolve as yes if it happene.
[image]
|
2023-12-12T21:02:15
|
2024-04-05T05:12:43
|
2024-04-05T05:12:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T9psCIDnPhWQZDfOF0cw
|
Will the Houthis sink a commercial ship before 2024-07-01?
|
Houthi rebels in Yemen have carried out several attacks on commercial vessels in the area of the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. Will they sink a commercial vessel?
|
2023-12-12T18:37:29
|
2024-03-03T07:32:21
|
2024-03-03T07:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VTE6fFdgHYiHn9iqn3Qk
|
Will Apple release a cloud backup service for macs by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Apple launches and sells to users a cloud backup service (similar to Backblaze and IDrive) that backs up user data on laptops / desktops to the cloud. If it's announced, but people cannot buy and use it by the end of the year, then this will resolve NO.
Subscription services are driving most of the company's growth at the moment, and iCloud is essentially the same product for mobile devices. It's possible they will implement this feature on macs.
I won't bet on this market.
|
2023-12-12T17:37:04
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:10:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Vyu7HdAZufJf7eSztcfX
|
Will META have a market cap at or above $1.3T in 2024?
|
META, the social media giant behind Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, currently has the 7th highest market cap at $859B.
At any point in 2024, will META’s market cap reach $1.3T? This can happen mid-market trading (see the 52 Week Range’s high value).
|
2023-12-12T16:49:56
|
2024-03-11T16:21:21
|
2024-03-11T16:21:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LOBXgn841CfSF3D2djtx
|
Will Plane hit 40,000⭐ stars on Github in 2024?
|
Plane is an open-source software development tool to manage issues, sprints, and product roadmaps. It has amazing start in terms of stars on GitHub.
Will it reach 40,000⭐ stars on Github in 2024?
https://github.com/makeplane/plane
https://star-history.com/#makeplane/plane&Date
[image]
|
2023-12-12T14:16:34
|
2024-12-30T21:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:45:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vafHAWKB6UYtMHrPrJh7
|
Will Trump be found immune from federal prosecution?
|
December 11th, Jack Smith asked the Supreme Court to decide whether Donald Trump is immune from federal prosecution for crimes he allegedly committed while he was president. Trump's legal team has to file a response by December 20th.
If the Court rules on the issue: the market will resolve YES if he is found immune from prosecution and NO if he is not immune.
If the court does not rule, market will resolve N/A.
|
2023-12-12T12:31:19
|
2024-07-01T07:46:59
|
2024-07-10T15:50:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6bVVnlWCIoangsfbEtPY
|
Will Israel deploy its Iron Beam defense technology before 2025?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Remake of https://manifold.markets/ICRainbow/will-israel-deploy-iron-beam-defenc, about 2024 instead of 2023.
The market resolves YES on a successful interception documented, not just announced. Although even an isolated deployment would suffice.
There have been claims this has already happened in 2023, but commenters in the original market seem convinced they are not real; perhaps they are about Iron Dome only, not Iron Beam.
|
2023-12-12T11:55:06
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:46:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Xyo7v1r67mepGb0Y82aC
|
Will another African nation, after Uganda in 2023, make LGTB identification illegal before 2025?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Remake of https://manifold.markets/johnleoks/uganda-is-the-latest-african-nation, about 2024 instead of 2023.
Ghana may be the country, see that previous market for developments there.
|
2023-12-12T11:52:24
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:44:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JePGjHnQVsBVjcyqn4ZF
|
Will China Supply Arms to Russia during 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Remake of https://manifold.markets/footgun/will-china-supply-arms-to-russia-in, but about 2024 instead of 2023.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-warns-china-could-arm-russia-as-ukraine-seeks-to-repel-advances-in-east-a5fd3e9e
|
2023-12-12T11:49:48
|
2024-11-22T08:26:54
|
2024-11-22T08:26:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OYfZQZQxrDn71OK7IEMZ
|
Will the Wagner group (PMC Wagner, Africa Corps PMC) still operate in Africa by the end of 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Remake of https://manifold.markets/Jack_Rose/will-the-wagner-group-still-exist-b, asking about 2024 rather than 2023.
Resolves Yes if Wagner group (under any name) still maintains some form of operations in Africa** as an independent paramilitary. Resolves No if Wagner group dissolves/is incorporated into the Russian military.
** Prior to Jan 12, this read "Middle East/Africa/Russia/Eastern Europe etc." instead of Africa. Due to definitional issues and possible ambiguities, this has been changed. Please comment if you give a significant probability of Wagner exiting Africa but still operating in a large capacity, as an independent paramilitary, outside of Africa.
|
2023-12-12T11:45:42
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:37:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5ubg3SW324lSpRFMYLsP
|
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.3% or less in December 2023?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to November 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%, 3.24%, 3.137%
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.3% or less in November 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.591301)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
|
2023-12-12T10:03:34
|
2024-01-11T20:59:00
|
2024-01-15T23:15:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7TEtwYof7lVP6hXVYtjc
|
Will Waymo give public rides to/from SFO airport terminals (driverless or not) by the end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if it is reputably reported/announced that Waymo has begun serving pickups OR dropoffs from any SFO airport TERMINAL. Resolves NO on January 1, 2025 otherwise. Note that service to/from the SFO airtrain stations for long-term parking, rental cars, or West Field Rd do NOT count as they are not within the SFO terminal area.
Clarifications:
2023-12-14: I guess I didn't say "driverless", so we'll stick with that. Ride must be to members of the public, non-Waymo/Google/Alphabet employees, can be a sub-portion of Waymo members, doesn't have to be everyone at once
|
2023-12-12T08:42:41
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:06:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yWPALDFVEUMIDyPcfw3f
|
Will Bitcoin trade at $65,000 or higher at any point in 2024?
|
Bitcoin is (at the time of market creation) currently sitting at ~$40k. It's all time high is about $67k or so, with an impending BlackRock-sanctioned spot ETF on the horizon, we could see another upwards spike.
Market resolves to YES if at any point in 2024 the price of Bitcoin hits or surpasses $65,000 per unit. I'll probably be using Yahoo Finance's pricing quotes if it comes down to it.
Resolves no if it does not.
|
2023-12-12T08:09:51
|
2024-03-04T06:16:50
|
2024-03-04T06:16:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mMRX6dutQNHGr6eL8Vm5
|
Will Tether depeg even slightly in 2024?
|
This resolves YES if the closing price for Tether listed here is ever less than $0.9900 in USD for any date in 2024.
|
2023-12-12T06:50:03
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T16:42:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m1OgiNznnE2RvIbtsm8W
|
Will the solar cell world efficiency record be beaten by the end of 2024?
|
An interactive graph of research efficiency records for solar cells is given at the following link:
https://www.nrel.gov/pv/interactive-cell-efficiency.html
The current record efficiency is 47.6%, for a multijunction solar cell under concentration. By the end of 2024, will there be a new entry with higher efficiency?
I will resolve based on the website linked above or equivalent if it is down.
|
2023-12-12T02:52:46
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:59:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9lvmCYzmF4qZIk8SLyMc
|
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in Q1 2024?
|
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before April 1, 2024? (This includes the rest of December 2023.) This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects.
Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains).
The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of linked markets, especially the earlier ones:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-7fde06cf4934)(https://manifold.markets/embed/PS/will-the-front-line-in-ukraine-chan-8cf89160dcb2)[markets]
|
2023-12-12T01:49:27
|
2024-04-02T14:59:00
|
2024-04-03T01:15:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ou76OD0GVnzqyMsjxCjc
|
Will Destiny publish a Manifesto in Q1 2024?
|
Will get resolved YES if Destiny writes and publishes a manifesto publically before March 31st 2024, 23:59.
Will get resolved NO if Destiny does not write and publish a manifesto publically before March 31st 2024, 23:59.
Market will close at 23:59, March 31st, 2024.
I will not trade on this market to ensure an unbiased resolve process. Be aware of other similar markets, where the creator trades and has a subjective resolve process.
Edit:
If Destiny calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.
If the community calls it a manifesto and it quickly gets a name similar to the "N-word Manifesto" like e.g. "The Mr. Girl Manifesto", it's a manifesto. Even if Destiny explicitly says it is not a manifesto but the community calls it a manifesto, it's a manifesto.
If neither Destiny or the community call it a manifesto, then it's not a manifesto.
To ensure that there is enough time for the community to "come up" with a name for the publication, I will close the market as soon as I hear about it. Then I will wait 1 week to resolve.
I am active on the subreddit and watch the streams/videos. I will resolve accordingly.
Disclaimer: My subjective experience about the name of the publication will be the deciding factor. Any posts/comments on Manifold will not affect my decision. You can however discuss the rules and I may be convinced to alter them.
|
2023-12-12T01:46:36
|
2024-03-31T14:59:00
|
2024-04-08T13:02:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aPnlQVYMUIQzIqkHLBXL
|
Will Aaron Rodgers play this NFL season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-11T21:41:16
|
2024-01-11T20:59:00
|
2024-01-11T21:31:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-blZXyQ6UlBkxyQLJnppl
|
Will Google Search include a Gemini powered chatbot by the end of March 2024
|
[markets]
|
2023-12-11T21:19:41
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T07:10:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ggvr0xvnOORU1X8XNCL3
|
Will the Ukraine war be over by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-11T19:56:07
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T21:42:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-M0T5BScgS6ZWF5Fs37T6
|
Will Argentina relax foreign exchange controls before 2025?
|
Will Argentina relax foreign exchange controls before 2025?
YES if the current restriction for individuals to buy US dollars will be eliminated, meaning that any individual can buy an unlimited amount of US dollars from a bank at the official exchange rate, AND buy/sell goods internationally e.g. Amazon or eBay at the official exchange rate, (without taking into account import/export tariffs or restrictions)
NO otherwise
|
2023-12-11T19:09:28
|
2025-01-01T18:59:00
|
2025-01-01T19:51:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4d4PM8b3bAZwPGBC8W0c
|
Will Mamba be the de-facto paradigm for LLMs over transformers by 2025?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.00752\n\nThe question will resolve yes if atleast 50% of the major AI labs (OpenAI, Google Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta, and Eluether) use Mamba in their flagship SOTA model. "
|
2023-12-11T12:11:54
|
2025-01-01T04:44:18
|
2025-01-01T04:44:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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