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mani-r3XbA8mF1duhOXSZ28wu | Will Destiny play a video game before 18th dec 2024? | Title
I'm high on copium
PLEASE NO MORE ISREAL/PALESTINE
also post proof, I dont want much recently | 2023-12-11T11:50:09 | 2023-12-14T13:46:29 | 2023-12-14T13:46:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f5R69Ruv6DaMVrtsIzxK | Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" (2023) win any awards at the (2024) Golden Globes? | "Killers of the Flower Moon" is nominated in 7 categories, all of which would count for this question.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Best Perfor... | 2023-12-11T10:17:31 | 2024-01-07T21:12:07 | 2024-01-07T21:12:07 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mTnjDocx2VgAIwmTj9nm | Will the S&P 500 close higher on December 12 than it did on December 11? | Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a pri... | 2023-12-11T10:13:53 | 2023-12-12T11:00:00 | 2023-12-12T13:44:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XPKxLBgQV3uzMGePBcWw | Will Oppenheimer (YES) win more awards than Barbie (NO) at the 2024 Golden Globes? | Barbie has 9 Golden Globe nominations in 7 categories (with 3 songs nominated for Best Song) and Oppenheimer has 8 nominations in unique categories.
Will Oppenheimer win strictly more awards than Barbie (tie resolves No) at the 2024 Golden Globes? | 2023-12-11T09:34:27 | 2024-01-07T19:13:17 | 2024-01-07T19:13:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5nN8VagcPUHiq3PFvdPI | Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-11T08:58:01 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-10T00:46:03 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-phZ8KAteSWQ1OPgoTpYk | Will a majority of voting FDP Members vote in favor of the FDP leaving the current German Government Coalition? | Resolves YES if the FDP's members vote in favor of leaving the governing coalition. Resolves according to FDP communications online.
[image] | 2023-12-11T04:33:19 | 2024-01-01T10:19:28 | 2024-01-01T10:19:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tezmehPCM8Tr37xLCXeX | Will Trump concede before inauguration day? | Resolves yes upon a Trump concession. Resolves no upon inauguration otherwise. | 2023-12-10T21:58:15 | 2025-01-21T15:59:00 | 2025-01-21T17:35:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zchW3y13IwFpWg6NxVUd | Will there be an earthquake over 3.14 Magnitude on Pi Day 2024 (March 14)? | Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent | 2023-12-10T21:22:13 | 2024-03-13T23:24:19 | 2024-03-13T23:24:19 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-px2o4P3O2nwPoHlt14t0 | Will President Gay of Harvard hold her current position on January 1 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-10T18:09:31 | 2024-01-01T21:51:39 | 2024-01-01T21:51:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6VlihWemlURRbuZgNSxc | Will Destiny cry on camera in the next 3 months? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-10T17:15:41 | 2024-03-17T23:59:00 | 2024-04-25T13:34:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZYEjd1YKssl8pUKM205U | Will we get AGI before 2025? | Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a... | 2023-12-10T16:35:55 | 2025-01-16T11:08:29 | 2025-01-16T11:08:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gDbBLuz2hxaYvUYphEIm | Will Keir Starmer become the next Prime Minister of the UK after Rishi Sunak? | The market resolves when either Keir Starmer is officially appointed as the Prime Minister of the UK, or another individual assumes the role after Rishi Sunak, whichever occurs first. The market will remain open until such an event is officially confirmed. | 2023-12-10T15:50:09 | 2024-07-05T07:52:03 | 2024-07-05T07:52:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JehLSkpypDPTDnHpQg4w | Did Harvard President Claudine Gay plagiarize multiple sections of her PhD thesis, violating Harvard's policies? (*) | https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1733976372450853222
@RealChrisBrunet and I have obtained documentation demonstrating that Harvard President Claudine Gay plagiarized multiple sections of her Ph.D. thesis, violating Harvard's policies on academic integrity.
Chris Rufo has made false or very misleading claims i... | 2023-12-10T15:26:38 | 2024-01-08T11:31:13 | 2024-01-08T11:31:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dHpODqv1GXLxQF7yV8QP | Will Vladimir Putin win the 2024 Russian presidental elections with more than 78% of the vote? | He won 77.5% of the vote in 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Russian_presidential_election
Voting runs 15-17th March 2024
Presidential elections in Russia will be held on 15–17 March 2024.[1] | 2023-12-10T12:29:11 | 2024-03-18T16:59:00 | 2024-03-22T20:46:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1aNeQhkfjMjkO2xTJAmD | Will Alex Jones be banned from the social media platform X again by June 15, 2024? |
Update - Resolving as "No"
As of June 15, 2024, Alex Jones's account on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has not been suspended, banned, or otherwise restricted by the platform's administrators.
Consequently, the betting market will resolve as "No," indicating that Alex Jones's account remains active a... | 2023-12-10T12:13:54 | 2024-06-15T11:38:39 | 2024-06-15T11:38:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jAHCiynMb5jCLItsF185 | Will Destiny release the first episode of his podcast before the end of January 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-10T07:58:50 | 2024-02-01T03:17:14 | 2024-02-01T03:17:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RwKckCW5Um9VsZm5E2hU | Will Sally Kornbluth Resign as President of MIT Before Feb 1st, 2024? | In the wake of recent events surrounding university leadership and their handling of sensitive issues such as antisemitism, there has been a notable shift in the academic landscape. Elizabeth Magill, the President of the University of Pennsylvania, resigned following criticism over her response to antisemitism on campu... | 2023-12-10T06:46:56 | 2024-02-01T14:59:00 | 2024-02-02T04:45:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jblQzVc6tfWf506t3XoR | MIT president Sally Kornbluth out by mid 2024 | If Sally Kornbluth is gone from the job, YES
EDIT 12/10 similar to the Penn president, if she announces resignation then it counts. That is what the crowd is baying for. | 2023-12-10T01:43:08 | 2024-06-30T21:54:30 | 2024-06-30T21:54:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EH2E3xA8THeAX7C5R1oO | Harvard president Claudine Gay out by mid 2024 | If Claudine Gay is gone from the job, YES
EDIT 12/10 similar to the Penn president, if she announces resignation then it counts. That is what the crowd is baying for. | 2023-12-10T01:42:18 | 2024-01-02T12:13:50 | 2024-01-02T12:13:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DbbJE5stUKwzzFfFkitU | Will Joe biden trip over on another flight of stairs before July 1st 2024? | Any stairs count | 2023-12-10T01:15:42 | 2024-07-01T06:59:00 | 2024-07-30T08:35:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0wq7FPBeXhyrlikCOvab | Will things turn publicly ugly between Destiny and Melina before February 1st 2024 | Will things remain civil or will a lot of drama unfold? Will resolve yes if any spiteful back and forth begins where significant relationship details are spilled | 2023-12-10T01:08:06 | 2024-02-01T01:22:55 | 2024-02-01T01:22:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8zU5btypCCjd0HcGJLdM | Will Melina go after Destiny’s assets in divorce proceedings? | Resolves yes if Destiny states/complains/acknowledges that Melina is squeezing him for his assets.
Resolves no if the divorce is finalized without any such comment from destiny. | 2023-12-10T00:47:24 | 2024-01-30T23:22:12 | 2024-01-30T23:22:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-u82Ni9HhBgQ7jvugfGis | Will Destiny reach 750,000 Youtube subscribers before 1/1/2024 | Currently sitting at 738k | 2023-12-10T00:24:45 | 2024-01-01T05:59:00 | 2024-01-01T11:39:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BouTIWwYCK5hrEfO9Ioq | Canada Politics: Will an early federal election be called in 2024? | The next federal election is supposed to be on or before October 20th 2025, however a number of things could trigger an early election to happen before then.
The federal election in 2021 was called early, and elections have been called early many other times including in ‘97, ‘00 and ‘08 to name just a few.
This que... | 2023-12-09T22:19:49 | 2024-12-31T20:27:02 | 2024-12-31T20:27:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DBj5Bx4vDsN96rjgJNO | Will the president of MIT, Sally Kornbluth, resign over the congressional hearings? | Within 30 days. UPenn president resigned today. | 2023-12-09T20:30:41 | 2024-01-08T20:59:00 | 2024-01-09T06:07:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1w1lSkb5rUI2178aS2L9 | Will the president of Harvard, Claudine Gay, resign over the congressional hearings? | Within 30 days. UPenn president resigned today. | 2023-12-09T20:29:07 | 2024-01-02T12:50:14 | 2024-01-02T12:50:14 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VF8X8lI9JTEpTjdDEOsC | Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q1 2024? | This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates in Q1 2024 (January, February, March). The current "target for the overnight rate" is 5%. Past interest rate decisions are made available on the Bank of Canada's website.
There are two scheduled interest rate announcement dates for Q1 2024 on Januar... | 2023-12-09T20:04:31 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T10:57:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9JJlVqOdRCusEinWH3jl | Will Destiny stream on Dec. 10, 2023? | Something of a comeback stream is expected on Dec. 10th when Destiny planned to return. Will Destiny be live on stream that day? | 2023-12-09T17:07:24 | 2023-12-10T07:40:00 | 2023-12-10T21:00:12 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ksrRtaaVIyBKYtUK8Y33 | Will SpaceX deploy any Starlink satellites using Starship in 2024? | Resolves yes if Starship/Superheavy successfully deploys at least one Starlink satellite in a nominal orbit during 2024. The satellites don't need to function as long as they are deployed from Starship.
For a similar market but for commercial payloads, see this one: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-st... | 2023-12-09T16:32:44 | 2024-12-31T15:15:38 | 2024-12-31T15:15:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VhOI6HyRSRAGAUl4z2gn | Will another Ivy League college president resign by December 23? | Liz Magill, the president of the University of Pennsylvania, has just resigned. The other Ivy League colleges are Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, and Dartmouth. (Note that MIT is not an Ivy.)
Resolves NO if no such resignation has been announced by 6pm PT on Dec 23.
General policy for my markets: ... | 2023-12-09T15:47:32 | 2023-12-23T18:00:00 | 2023-12-23T18:24:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2k77qaCmT6Sb4icGANJt | Will the departure of either of the Presidents of Harvard or MIT be announced this year? | https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/06/democrats-harvard-mit-upenn-stefanik-00130471
https://x.com/damonlinker/status/1733601007135780924?s=46
A resignation announced in 2023 but which takes effect later, such as upon a replacement or interim replacement being appointed, will result in a YES resolution. | 2023-12-09T14:51:05 | 2023-12-31T15:59:00 | 2023-12-31T16:11:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1vtchRMjh0XxKjxXNp6J | Will Harvard President, Claudine Gay, resign in next 6 months? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-09T13:58:18 | 2024-01-02T12:28:41 | 2024-01-02T12:28:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZAalhnJj93DDs1ij3TD1 | Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt? | This market resolves YES if by January 1, 2025, the most popular chatbot creates "thoughts" when given difficult prompts, a la Chain-of-Thought. The thoughts must be separate from its final response.
By "thoughts," I mean data that the chatbot creates and maintains primarily for the purpose of improving its own respon... | 2023-12-09T13:02:11 | 2024-09-18T21:17:13 | 2024-09-18T21:17:13 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-X91nOhGCd7AUBmP8BnAO | Will the UK end up with a hung parliament after the next general election? | Resolves YES if no political party wins a majority of seats (326 out of 650) in the next general election. As based on the official count after the election (not exit polls)
Does not take into account any by-elections taking place during the next parliament
Does not take into account MPs switching their party allegia... | 2023-12-09T11:08:19 | 2024-07-06T12:18:00 | 2024-07-06T12:18:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-JETzp8UWdpjX1Khbw8Gm | Will the Liberal Democrats win more than 30 seats in the House of Commons in the next UK general election? | The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democrats win more than 30 seats in the House of Commons as a result of the next UK general election.
The market will resolve to "No" if the Liberal Democrats win 30 seats or fewer.
The outcome should be based on the official election results as declared by the UK Elect... | 2023-12-09T10:16:45 | 2024-07-05T07:52:18 | 2024-07-05T07:52:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-TO5Y22Gro88qINqPQQis | Will any migrants to the UK be sent to Rwanda in 2024? | The Conservative government in the UK wants to send Migrants to Rwanda. The UK has up to now paid Rwanda £240 million with more to come and not a single person has been shipped out.
The UK Sureme Court has declared the plan illegal. The government has introduced measures to address the court's concerns.
It is likel... | 2023-12-09T03:28:46 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-02T13:48:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-07HUSoz0ky7KNbQXgDOr | Will Trump start tweeting again before the election? | I mean with some regularity, not just a one off post or something. | 2023-12-08T22:09:44 | 2024-08-12T13:37:47 | 2024-08-12T13:37:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ch1U5KVrYoOt2919VDTc | Will Kate Cox get an abortion? | Kate Cox is a Dallas-area mother who found out that her fetus has trisomy 18, a genetic condition that can cause stillbirth or death of a newborn, and puts her fertility at risk. She is currently 20 weeks pregnant. While Texas prohibits almost all abortions, Kate Cox was granted an emergency order that would allow her ... | 2023-12-08T17:29:56 | 2023-12-19T16:30:03 | 2023-12-19T16:30:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pEBzurvIdassKeqn35mc | Will Gemini Nano's weights be publicly availible before 2025? | Gemini Nano is on-device right now - on the Pixel 8 Pro. This potentially makes it vulnerable to attempts to extract the weights from such a device and publish them. Alternativelly, Google may decide to open source the weights.
This question Resolves to YES if between now and the end of 2024 it is possible for a memb... | 2023-12-08T15:16:43 | 2024-07-21T17:13:51 | 2024-07-21T17:13:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mDIpwWHQj5vZoHJV0NrL | Will Hamas be eradicated by 2025? | Resolves YES if Hamas:
No longer controls any territory
Does not organize a significant number of terrorist attacks
Is not a significant political party everywhere.
Looking for a standard for eradication similar to how ISIS were eradicated. That is, Hamas might still exist on paper, but they need not to matter anym... | 2023-12-08T14:38:33 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-31T23:07:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gt2EHVaMuxqOzLB3ZMMO | Will a release date for Reputation (Taylor’s Version) be announced by February 15th 2024? | Reputation (Taylor’s Version) is the 5th of 6 Taylor Swift re-recordings and the next to be released. A date for its release has not yet been announced.
This market will resolve to Yes if a release date for the album has been announced by Taylor or her team via official channels before midnight February 15th 2024 US... | 2023-12-08T10:06:52 | 2024-02-15T16:59:39 | 2024-02-15T16:59:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MK4jdjHiNqxyXCldWDRx | Will Claudine Gay remain Harvard’s president until the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-08T08:31:55 | 2024-01-02T12:19:58 | 2024-01-02T12:19:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-junVJ0G7Xe3UGUguQZ7z | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-08T04:29:08 | 2024-12-05T09:11:37 | 2024-12-05T09:11:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hIkjUisWzdcRAwrB0Oux | Will OpenAI release a “Big Thing” next week? | [image] | 2023-12-08T01:14:28 | 2023-12-15T23:59:00 | 2023-12-18T11:36:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pvjnJi5aKNKoZpUjdPOQ | Will OpenAI make a big product-related announcement in December 2023? | The market resolves as “Yes” if OpenAI makes an announcement in December similar to the ones listed below.
release of a GPT-4.5
progress update on GPT-5
release of a new consumer device
release of a serious open-source model
plans to work on something new such as AI chips
If the announcement just confirms thi... | 2023-12-07T23:25:57 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-01-01T07:26:22 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f8hPsJURaBTjE3M25KwM | Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-07T20:26:22 | 2024-09-24T14:48:27 | 2024-09-24T14:48:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fphthbaPEaqpRsxHMUau | Will IFT-3 Starship flight hardware remain intact? | The previous two integrated test flights have resulted in RUDs for both stages. On the next mission, IFT-3, will Starship's hardware be recoverable?
This market resolves to YES if Starship does not experience a RUD and returns to Earth successfully for recovery.
If SpaceX declares that the mission hardware will not b... | 2023-12-07T16:02:25 | 2024-03-27T13:40:52 | 2024-03-27T13:40:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r0uN7zwY0yRxBx0xq5Kj | Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024? | If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution will happen if either side d... | 2023-12-07T11:06:06 | 2024-09-30T15:41:37 | 2024-09-30T15:41:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ip8PiYW7zMrkUwvokj9E | 🌐 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before January 31st 2024? | RESOLVES YES:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc.
There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This ... | 2023-12-07T10:59:09 | 2024-01-30T20:59:00 | 2024-01-31T00:31:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ks1p4RldyC3QoDkC4c2k | 🌐 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before February 29th 2024? | RESOLVES YES:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc.
There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This ... | 2023-12-07T10:58:40 | 2024-02-08T03:53:18 | 2024-02-08T03:53:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-gRDpRW8YwRoMNUFPSMnO | Will Star Voting pass in Eugene, Oregon? | Eugene, Oregon will vote on switching to the Star Voting system (Score Then Automatic Runoff). It purports to solve the most egregious issues with ranked choice voting. Will it pass when it's voted on in May? NA if it's not on the ballot.
[image] | 2023-12-07T10:54:15 | 2024-05-24T16:03:02 | 2024-05-24T16:03:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7EjAwddhnaJxEpuweIes | Will Destiny and Melina get back together before 1 April 2024? | Resolves YES if they both announce (seriously) they are getting back together AND/OR they start living together again at some point before 2024-04-01.
Else resolves NO. | 2023-12-07T09:39:36 | 2024-04-01T09:31:00 | 2024-04-01T14:17:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Mkves1DCNgJFy90OcEff | Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be *nominated* for TIME's 2024 Person of The Year? | Previously: @/SG/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c
This is for the 2024 shortlist, including the winner. Last year's shortlist had Altman, and so this question would have resolved Yes.
Note that Elon Musk will not count for this question unless his nomination is unambiguously dependent on his work with AI, and it... | 2023-12-07T09:29:53 | 2024-12-09T07:22:55 | 2024-12-09T07:29:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-eH49NOSuo7pWooevawP6 | Will Venezuela invade Brazil by 2024 year end? | There are no roads between Guyana and Venezuela. Their border is either very dense Amazon rainforest or mountains.
There is speculation in the Brazilian media that Venezuela would need to go through Brazilian territory to pursue their military endeavors inside Guyana's Essequibo.
If the Brazilian government or the Br... | 2023-12-07T09:24:16 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-15T20:35:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OCsyr6vS644bnxmBXH0C | [Metaculus] Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024? | Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19849/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, there is an active United Nations-led peacekeepi... | 2023-12-07T05:32:31 | 2024-06-02T04:00:00 | 2024-06-04T10:30:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-r75nmlbmB0HqxSq3d0YV | [Metaculus] Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023? | Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20218/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The 10 largest cities in Europe according to Wikipedia are
Istanbul
Moscow
London
Saint... | 2023-12-07T05:28:49 | 2023-12-29T03:00:00 | 2023-12-29T04:59:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zmZCo9v6kqMQxUkr1m0O | Will Gemini Ultra be part of Google One before 2024-07-01? | Resolves YES if
Google includes Chatbot Gemini Ultra in their Google One subscription packages.
Google One undergoes a rebranding that incorporates Gemini Ultra along with its existing subscription services.
Resolves NO if
The subscription for Gemini Ultra remains completely independent of Google One.
Gemini Ultra... | 2023-12-07T01:09:16 | 2024-02-08T06:52:28 | 2024-02-08T06:52:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-p5uaETNWYokvxyy4ggEE | Will GPT 4.5 come out in December? | Whatever model OpenAI publicly identifies as GPT 4.5 will count.
[tweet] | 2023-12-06T16:55:40 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:04:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UlEzW1mujMghb3cAXAm4 | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024? | Including test and accidents. | 2023-12-06T16:49:24 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T08:58:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nEGvS8GdaEYetghlXfb3 | Will Destiny and Vaush have a conversation in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-06T11:27:04 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2024-12-31T15:05:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t8YG8jukZOGDBkr6FWHP | Will Claudine Gay still be president of Harvard by March 31st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-06T11:16:25 | 2024-01-02T10:35:36 | 2024-01-02T10:35:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-TLsBxeTuGEb1sYlYrr7T | Will OpenAI drop something new before Christmas which explicitly overtakes Gemini Ultra/puts them to shame in some way? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-06T09:11:53 | 2023-12-25T20:59:00 | 2023-12-26T03:46:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-O2y8GFiKmjpwA47tD4i0 | Will Google Gemini(Ultra) be released before April 1, 2024? | -The model should be publicly available in some form(integration with bard would be reasonable).This is the condition under which I will resolve the market to YES.
-If you have any other suggestions on what to add to this to make the market more reasonable,then please comment
-If real world throws a curveball so inte... | 2023-12-06T08:51:39 | 2024-02-08T06:21:26 | 2024-02-08T06:21:26 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lf9OYzcf1i2sqEMZieXL | Will Bard Advanced (with Gemini Ultra) be launched by January 31, 2024? | From the December 6, 2023 blogpost announcing Gemini:
"Early next year, we’ll also launch Bard Advanced, a new, cutting-edge AI experience that gives you access to our best models and capabilities, starting with Gemini Ultra." | 2023-12-06T07:49:36 | 2024-01-31T23:59:00 | 2024-02-01T00:50:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-t5ms28qldPv1jfIkLz1g | Will anyone be forcibly removed from the 2024 Democratic National Convention? | Resolves YES if there is any reliable news story about someone being removed by security from the convention.
Someone prevented from entering does not count. Someone being escorted out by other attendees or medical professionals does not count.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GCS/will-anyone-be-forcibly-removed-fro) | 2023-12-06T06:26:22 | 2024-08-22T09:17:09 | 2024-08-22T09:17:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HyryqQCIxdeRtx4GqfkN | Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024 | This is excluding all unnamed groups of people who won in the past unless they are exactly the same.
I.e. if the winner is American women it would resolve yes but if an American women (Jennifer Lawrence) wins it will resolve no.
Here is the list excluded:
The American fighting-man / The American soldier (1950 and 20... | 2023-12-06T06:19:36 | 2024-12-12T05:05:51 | 2024-12-12T05:05:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tmZFLNhhez7wMqsTeCSh | Will any explicitly leftist, pro-Palastine US organization or individual kill a Jewish person in the US before 2025? | The killing does not have to be strictly because they're Jewish, but it must be for something related, like their support for Israel. Or if it's unclear what the motive was, that must seem likely.
If the death was accidental that still counts if the violence was intentional. e.g. someone burns down a building and does... | 2023-12-06T05:50:37 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-03T08:24:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Rm4KyHdWOJua63kn3J4Q | Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, by 3/31/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-06T04:24:25 | 2024-03-31T20:59:00 | 2024-04-01T00:49:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mIJferga9CmoZNjdNPBr | GTA 6 TRAILER 250 MILLION CLICKS IN FIRST MONTH? | Will the first, official GTA 6 YouTube Trailer get 250 million or more clicks in its first month after release - by "clicks" i mean views on the youtube view counter. | 2023-12-05T23:43:06 | 2024-01-05T14:59:00 | 2024-01-05T16:40:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3HlAydWbV9LuHxkzUXqR | Will BTC reach $100,000 by midnight April 20th, 2024 (approximately three days after the next halvening)? | Self Explanatory | 2023-12-05T21:41:14 | 2024-04-20T00:16:43 | 2024-04-20T00:16:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IPaRpenvbyRFsiWmgGDC | Will Tekken 8 have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of January 29th? | This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable. | 2023-12-05T20:16:23 | 2024-01-29T16:20:25 | 2024-01-29T16:20:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mnk8WwfNDK0LiSn5H8d3 | Recent SEC filings show Elon Musk hopes to raise $1B for xAI. Will they be able to raise $1B or more by EOY 2024? | Info: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2002695/000200269523000002/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml
As of Dec 5th 2023:
Total Offering Amount $1,000,000,000 USD
Total Amount Sold $134,679,312 USD
Total Remaining to be Sold $865,320,688 USD | 2023-12-05T19:56:09 | 2024-05-27T11:20:41 | 2024-05-27T11:20:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GmPrrSMaZ2XP58rf8u4i | Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election? | Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
Examples include:
A new viral threat that ends with government regulation similar to 2020
A new war (or Israel/Ukraine heats up to the point that there are significant U.S. boots on the ground)
Major chains of riots (like the BLM riots of summer 2020 - not a sing... | 2023-12-05T12:11:26 | 2024-11-05T20:59:00 | 2024-11-17T02:36:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bmO1PWVLnWJP1d1b6TxF | Will the Cincinnati Bengals shred the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:47:26 | 2023-12-31T19:18:52 | 2023-12-31T19:18:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sIhwdZnMlj5UxsCs3pPk | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers crush the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 SUN 4:05PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:45:33 | 2023-12-31T19:16:25 | 2023-12-31T19:16:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bBIeUGkdomTMlUPtguYn | Will the San Francisco 49ers dynamite the Washington Commanders? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:44:22 | 2023-12-31T19:18:11 | 2023-12-31T19:18:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-x4kAxPpFiRTpkTJgHB5s | Will the New Orleans Saints capsize the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:43:17 | 2023-12-31T19:17:52 | 2023-12-31T19:17:52 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7cX02kRwc7pbZsfsdZDT | Will the Arizona Cardinals peck the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:42:28 | 2023-12-31T19:17:15 | 2023-12-31T19:17:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ojxfxSWDJgxDc8hmkfel | Will the LA Rams lightning-strike the NY Giants? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:41:36 | 2023-12-31T19:16:42 | 2023-12-31T19:16:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A1bBvCcmxPUkqZNPdiQZ | Will the Carolina Panthers rip-apart the Jacksonville Jaguars? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:40:34 | 2023-12-31T19:21:28 | 2023-12-31T19:21:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QCIpHiDEoQ1iqntXD3lA | Will the Las Vegas Raiders scavenge the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:40:00 | 2023-12-31T19:19:53 | 2023-12-31T19:19:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g2j6AtDbtW3Pfnws4yuG | Will the Atlanta Falcons claw the Chicago Bears? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:38:29 | 2023-12-31T19:21:00 | 2023-12-31T19:21:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BVlNyS6mEeu3pQu04hNH | Will the New England Patriots hunt the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:37:52 | 2023-12-31T19:20:44 | 2023-12-31T19:20:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-x0glc2OeydduTafWSkOK | Will the Miami Dolphins splash the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:36:02 | 2023-12-31T19:20:20 | 2023-12-31T19:20:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UWLM2pjqZf1kLCXthfw7 | Will the Arizona Cardinals peck the Chicago Bears? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:30:51 | 2023-12-24T19:29:24 | 2023-12-24T19:29:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Y94n2hzPfJiNKmZOy6O9 | Will the Dallas Cowboys lasso the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:30:19 | 2023-12-24T19:30:10 | 2023-12-24T19:30:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sS91K52aiK2tRVe1jTzu | Will the Jacksonville Jaguars tear apart the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 SUN 4:05PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:29:41 | 2023-12-24T19:30:29 | 2023-12-24T19:30:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NCUq8mjdXolaKHQszRyc | Will the Indianapolis Colts stomp the Atlanta Falcons? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:28:54 | 2023-12-24T19:37:29 | 2023-12-24T19:37:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7BFVVdr3zk7rn7iaO0RE | Will the Seattle Seahawks dive-bomb the Tennessee Titans? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:28:19 | 2023-12-24T19:29:43 | 2023-12-24T19:29:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FcyH1QhhV6IghywC5LJh | Will the Green Bay Packers ship & handle the Carolina Panthers? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:27:28 | 2023-12-24T19:28:58 | 2023-12-24T19:28:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qo1IYV405jZsgf6pxWqJ | Will the Detroit Lions run over the Minnesota Vikings? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:25:38 | 2023-12-24T19:36:41 | 2023-12-24T19:36:41 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fc6ZXjalWhyjqpUw1FkY | Will the Washington Commanders dominate the NY Jets? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:24:38 | 2023-12-24T19:37:00 | 2023-12-24T19:37:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0SrIqEBTAzB22CGGDgO3 | Will the Tennessee Titans destroy the Houston Texans? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-05T11:23:53 | 2023-12-31T19:19:31 | 2023-12-31T19:19:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH | Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation? | There are many testimonies currently being given and circulated in media about incidents of mass rape of Israeli women on Oct 7.
This market will track whether an independent investigation is done and will resolve to yes if such investigation determines that these sexual crimes against women did in fact occur.
This ... | 2023-12-05T07:40:17 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-06T01:56:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6g3rEvwdTPX53OkK3PaG | Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be the President of Ukraine on January 1, 2025? | This will resolve NO if for any reason Zelenskyy stops being the President of Ukraine before January 1 2025. | 2023-12-05T07:34:08 | 2025-01-01T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:01:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RJJvOlbchbIob29IRuGP | Will there be a financial markets' panic due to expectations of a 2nd Trump administration by inauguration day? | If from now until Inauguration Day we have a financial markets' panic (stock market, bond market, volatility, dollar) going risk-off due to the increasing realization that Trump is the Republican nominee and that the election is a coin-toss, this market resolves to YES.
I'll rely on the financial media calling it that... | 2023-12-05T05:23:13 | 2025-01-20T18:59:00 | 2025-01-21T20:04:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-P3a7bA6HiXrOQ2azPYfJ | Will the UK government pass legislation defining Rwanda as a “safe country” before the next General Election? | The UK government has repeatedly stated that one of their top priorities (or even their top priority) is to “Stop The Boats” - to discourage refugees and asylum seekers from crossing the Channel in small boats and claiming asylum once they reach British soil.
They claim that the best way to do this is to forcibly remo... | 2023-12-05T02:49:42 | 2024-05-08T22:26:29 | 2024-05-08T22:26:29 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-OgXJFUHddrtqmVAbfwUd | Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2024? | Many western countries have provided military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. One item that has been discussed relatively frequently is the Taurus cruise missile currently in German inventories. It is similar to french/british SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, which has already been provided, and is also avail... | 2023-12-05T01:28:36 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T09:24:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KQ50mDMKdpGX9aZXABuX | Will Joe Biden be the last (de facto) US president? | "Yes" means that there will be no president after Joe Biden who either holds office or has the same power/authority of past US presidents, as well as effective control over the bulk of US territory. | 2023-12-04T17:43:19 | 2025-01-20T18:45:15 | 2025-01-20T18:45:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6k0L25k8QMXwIZfQGPnA | Will the US conduct airstrikes in Yemen in 2023? | As the Iranian-backed Houthis continue to escalate their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the prospect of a potential US response on Yemeni territory presents itself. Will only resolve YES if it is an airstrike and if the attack is on Yemen’s sovereign territory. | 2023-12-04T16:13:19 | 2024-01-01T02:59:31 | 2024-01-01T02:59:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
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