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mani-r3XbA8mF1duhOXSZ28wu
|
Will Destiny play a video game before 18th dec 2024?
|
Title
I'm high on copium
PLEASE NO MORE ISREAL/PALESTINE
also post proof, I dont want much recently
|
2023-12-11T11:50:09
|
2023-12-14T13:46:29
|
2023-12-14T13:46:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f5R69Ruv6DaMVrtsIzxK
|
Will "Killers of the Flower Moon" (2023) win any awards at the (2024) Golden Globes?
|
"Killers of the Flower Moon" is nominated in 7 categories, all of which would count for this question.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Best Original Score - Motion Picture
Best Motion Picture - Drama
I may trade in my own markets if they have objective resolution criteria (like this one). Please ask if anything about the question resolution is unclear!
|
2023-12-11T10:17:31
|
2024-01-07T21:12:07
|
2024-01-07T21:12:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mTnjDocx2VgAIwmTj9nm
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on December 12 than it did on December 11?
|
Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
1 | 5000
2 | 2500
3 | 1000
4 | 500
5 | 350
6 | 300
7 | 250
8 | 200
9 | 150
10 | 100
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-12-11T10:13:53
|
2023-12-12T11:00:00
|
2023-12-12T13:44:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XPKxLBgQV3uzMGePBcWw
|
Will Oppenheimer (YES) win more awards than Barbie (NO) at the 2024 Golden Globes?
|
Barbie has 9 Golden Globe nominations in 7 categories (with 3 songs nominated for Best Song) and Oppenheimer has 8 nominations in unique categories.
Will Oppenheimer win strictly more awards than Barbie (tie resolves No) at the 2024 Golden Globes?
|
2023-12-11T09:34:27
|
2024-01-07T19:13:17
|
2024-01-07T19:13:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5nN8VagcPUHiq3PFvdPI
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky write a tweet containing the word "rationalussy" in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-11T08:58:01
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-10T00:46:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-phZ8KAteSWQ1OPgoTpYk
|
Will a majority of voting FDP Members vote in favor of the FDP leaving the current German Government Coalition?
|
Resolves YES if the FDP's members vote in favor of leaving the governing coalition. Resolves according to FDP communications online.
[image]
|
2023-12-11T04:33:19
|
2024-01-01T10:19:28
|
2024-01-01T10:19:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tezmehPCM8Tr37xLCXeX
|
Will Trump concede before inauguration day?
|
Resolves yes upon a Trump concession. Resolves no upon inauguration otherwise.
|
2023-12-10T21:58:15
|
2025-01-21T15:59:00
|
2025-01-21T17:35:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zchW3y13IwFpWg6NxVUd
|
Will there be an earthquake over 3.14 Magnitude on Pi Day 2024 (March 14)?
|
Info: https://earthquaketrack.com/recent
|
2023-12-10T21:22:13
|
2024-03-13T23:24:19
|
2024-03-13T23:24:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-px2o4P3O2nwPoHlt14t0
|
Will President Gay of Harvard hold her current position on January 1 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-10T18:09:31
|
2024-01-01T21:51:39
|
2024-01-01T21:51:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6VlihWemlURRbuZgNSxc
|
Will Destiny cry on camera in the next 3 months?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-10T17:15:41
|
2024-03-17T23:59:00
|
2024-04-25T13:34:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZYEjd1YKssl8pUKM205U
|
Will we get AGI before 2025?
|
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being. Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can. It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
Resolves as YES if such a system is created and publicly announced before January 1st 2025
Here are markets with the same criteria:
@/RemNiFHfMN/did-agi-emerge-in-2023
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2025 (this question)
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2027-d7b5f2b00ace
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2028-ff560f9e9346
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2029-ef1c187271ed
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2030
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2031
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2032
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2034
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2033-34ec8e1d00fd
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2036
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2037
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2038
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2039
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2040
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2041
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2042
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2043
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-2044
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2045
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2046
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2047
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2048
Related markets:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2027
@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2028
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2029
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2030
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2031
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2032
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-asi-before-2033
@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2034
@/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2035
Other questions for 2025:
@/RemNi/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-3192414ff7cb@/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be
@/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-031ec0858fcc
@/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-d18e9fd38cd1
@/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-bf2acb801224
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-v-91a92e57402f
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-l-5be75802cd57
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-108243356386
@/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-5027258fe404@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-cf692ec79d61
@/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-f447d8800dd3
@/RemNi/will-vladimir-putin-be-president-of-c5fc19dfa944
@/RemNi/will-xi-jinping-be-the-leader-of-ch-f4bb79318ae8
@/RemNi/will-kim-jong-un-be-the-leader-of-n-2c7e5cf84f34
@/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b
Other reference points for AGI:
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-vladimir-put@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-xi-jinping-s
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-discover
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-fusio
@/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-1m-humanoid
|
2023-12-10T16:35:55
|
2025-01-16T11:08:29
|
2025-01-16T11:08:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gDbBLuz2hxaYvUYphEIm
|
Will Keir Starmer become the next Prime Minister of the UK after Rishi Sunak?
|
The market resolves when either Keir Starmer is officially appointed as the Prime Minister of the UK, or another individual assumes the role after Rishi Sunak, whichever occurs first. The market will remain open until such an event is officially confirmed.
|
2023-12-10T15:50:09
|
2024-07-05T07:52:03
|
2024-07-05T07:52:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JehLSkpypDPTDnHpQg4w
|
Did Harvard President Claudine Gay plagiarize multiple sections of her PhD thesis, violating Harvard's policies? (*)
|
https://twitter.com/realchrisrufo/status/1733976372450853222
@RealChrisBrunet and I have obtained documentation demonstrating that Harvard President Claudine Gay plagiarized multiple sections of her Ph.D. thesis, violating Harvard's policies on academic integrity.
Chris Rufo has made false or very misleading claims in the past, though. Is this true in spirit?
After the dust settles, I'll look into the evidence and post my judgement in the comments. If a single person disagrees, I'll ask a council of trustworthy manifold users to make a judgement, otherwise I'll resolve it.
A YES resolution would require her to have done something that Harvard would often punish, something that's bad in principle but isn't ever punished wouldn't count. A YES resolution requires this to be the kind of thing that's, independent of patisan affiliation, worth having a news story about. If what Claudine did is something half of all PhD students do and get away with, this resolves NO.
|
2023-12-10T15:26:38
|
2024-01-08T11:31:13
|
2024-01-08T11:31:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dHpODqv1GXLxQF7yV8QP
|
Will Vladimir Putin win the 2024 Russian presidental elections with more than 78% of the vote?
|
He won 77.5% of the vote in 2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Russian_presidential_election
Voting runs 15-17th March 2024
Presidential elections in Russia will be held on 15–17 March 2024.[1]
|
2023-12-10T12:29:11
|
2024-03-18T16:59:00
|
2024-03-22T20:46:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1aNeQhkfjMjkO2xTJAmD
|
Will Alex Jones be banned from the social media platform X again by June 15, 2024?
|
Update - Resolving as "No"
As of June 15, 2024, Alex Jones's account on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter) has not been suspended, banned, or otherwise restricted by the platform's administrators.
Consequently, the betting market will resolve as "No," indicating that Alex Jones's account remains active and unrestricted on the platform up to and including this date.
This conclusion is based on the latest updates and credible sources indicating no action taken against his account by the platform's administrators
Thank you for participating in this market.
Background:
Alex Jones, a controversial figure known for his conspiracy theories, had his account on the social media platform X restored by Elon Musk in December 2023. This decision was made following a public poll and marked a significant reversal of the platform's previous stance (https://www.npr.org/2023/12/10/1218431610/elon-musk-restores-x-account-of-conspiracy-theorist-alex-jones).
Conditions for Resolving the Market:
Yes Outcome: The market resolves as "Yes" if Alex Jones's account on the social media platform X is suspended, banned, or otherwise restricted from posting content by the platform's administrators for any duration of time before or on June 15, 2024.
No Outcome: The market resolves as "No" if Alex Jones's account remains active and unrestricted on the social media platform X up to and including June 15, 2024.
Verification Source: The resolution will be based on official announcements or public confirmations by the social media platform X or its representatives, or through widely recognized and credible news sources reporting on the status of Alex Jones's account.
Clarifications:
Temporary restrictions or limitations (such as post deletions or temporary suspensions) count towards a "Yes" resolution if they are explicitly enforced by the platform's administrators.
Any restrictions or limitations that are part of the platform's automated systems or algorithms but not explicitly enforced by the platform's administrators do not count towards a "Yes" resolution.
In case of ambiguity or conflicting reports, the market resolution will be based on the most credible and widely accepted sources available by the resolution date.
|
2023-12-10T12:13:54
|
2024-06-15T11:38:39
|
2024-06-15T11:38:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jAHCiynMb5jCLItsF185
|
Will Destiny release the first episode of his podcast before the end of January 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-10T07:58:50
|
2024-02-01T03:17:14
|
2024-02-01T03:17:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RwKckCW5Um9VsZm5E2hU
|
Will Sally Kornbluth Resign as President of MIT Before Feb 1st, 2024?
|
In the wake of recent events surrounding university leadership and their handling of sensitive issues such as antisemitism, there has been a notable shift in the academic landscape. Elizabeth Magill, the President of the University of Pennsylvania, resigned following criticism over her response to antisemitism on campus and her testimony before Congress. This development has led to speculation about the futures of other university presidents who were involved in similar circumstances, including Sally Kornbluth, the President of MIT.
This question asks: Will Sally Kornbluth resign from her position as President of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) before Feb 1st, 2024?
For the purpose of this question, a resignation is defined as a voluntary decision to leave the position, announced publicly by either Sally Kornbluth herself or an official MIT communication channel. The resignation must be confirmed by a credible news source or an official statement from MIT.
Resolution Criteria: The question will resolve positively if, by Feb 1st, 2024, there is an official announcement from either Sally Kornbluth or MIT confirming her resignation as President of MIT. The announcement must be verifiable through credible news sources or official MIT communications.
If no such announcement is made by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.
|
2023-12-10T06:46:56
|
2024-02-01T14:59:00
|
2024-02-02T04:45:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jblQzVc6tfWf506t3XoR
|
MIT president Sally Kornbluth out by mid 2024
|
If Sally Kornbluth is gone from the job, YES
EDIT 12/10 similar to the Penn president, if she announces resignation then it counts. That is what the crowd is baying for.
|
2023-12-10T01:43:08
|
2024-06-30T21:54:30
|
2024-06-30T21:54:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EH2E3xA8THeAX7C5R1oO
|
Harvard president Claudine Gay out by mid 2024
|
If Claudine Gay is gone from the job, YES
EDIT 12/10 similar to the Penn president, if she announces resignation then it counts. That is what the crowd is baying for.
|
2023-12-10T01:42:18
|
2024-01-02T12:13:50
|
2024-01-02T12:13:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DbbJE5stUKwzzFfFkitU
|
Will Joe biden trip over on another flight of stairs before July 1st 2024?
|
Any stairs count
|
2023-12-10T01:15:42
|
2024-07-01T06:59:00
|
2024-07-30T08:35:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0wq7FPBeXhyrlikCOvab
|
Will things turn publicly ugly between Destiny and Melina before February 1st 2024
|
Will things remain civil or will a lot of drama unfold? Will resolve yes if any spiteful back and forth begins where significant relationship details are spilled
|
2023-12-10T01:08:06
|
2024-02-01T01:22:55
|
2024-02-01T01:22:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8zU5btypCCjd0HcGJLdM
|
Will Melina go after Destiny’s assets in divorce proceedings?
|
Resolves yes if Destiny states/complains/acknowledges that Melina is squeezing him for his assets.
Resolves no if the divorce is finalized without any such comment from destiny.
|
2023-12-10T00:47:24
|
2024-01-30T23:22:12
|
2024-01-30T23:22:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u82Ni9HhBgQ7jvugfGis
|
Will Destiny reach 750,000 Youtube subscribers before 1/1/2024
|
Currently sitting at 738k
|
2023-12-10T00:24:45
|
2024-01-01T05:59:00
|
2024-01-01T11:39:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BouTIWwYCK5hrEfO9Ioq
|
Canada Politics: Will an early federal election be called in 2024?
|
The next federal election is supposed to be on or before October 20th 2025, however a number of things could trigger an early election to happen before then.
The federal election in 2021 was called early, and elections have been called early many other times including in ‘97, ‘00 and ‘08 to name just a few.
This question will resolve YES if an election is called before the end of 2024, including if the election is called in 2024 but occurs in early 2025. If no election is called in 2024, it will resolve to NO.
|
2023-12-09T22:19:49
|
2024-12-31T20:27:02
|
2024-12-31T20:27:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5DBj5Bx4vDsN96rjgJNO
|
Will the president of MIT, Sally Kornbluth, resign over the congressional hearings?
|
Within 30 days. UPenn president resigned today.
|
2023-12-09T20:30:41
|
2024-01-08T20:59:00
|
2024-01-09T06:07:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1w1lSkb5rUI2178aS2L9
|
Will the president of Harvard, Claudine Gay, resign over the congressional hearings?
|
Within 30 days. UPenn president resigned today.
|
2023-12-09T20:29:07
|
2024-01-02T12:50:14
|
2024-01-02T12:50:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VF8X8lI9JTEpTjdDEOsC
|
Will the Bank of Canada raise interest rates in Q1 2024?
|
This market resolves YES if the Bank of Canada raises interest rates in Q1 2024 (January, February, March). The current "target for the overnight rate" is 5%. Past interest rate decisions are made available on the Bank of Canada's website.
There are two scheduled interest rate announcement dates for Q1 2024 on January 24 and March 6. Will the Bank of Canada raise rates in the first quarter of 2024?
See also:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-the-bank-of-canada-pivot-in-q1)
|
2023-12-09T20:04:31
|
2024-03-31T23:59:00
|
2024-04-01T10:57:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9JJlVqOdRCusEinWH3jl
|
Will Destiny stream on Dec. 10, 2023?
|
Something of a comeback stream is expected on Dec. 10th when Destiny planned to return. Will Destiny be live on stream that day?
|
2023-12-09T17:07:24
|
2023-12-10T07:40:00
|
2023-12-10T21:00:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ksrRtaaVIyBKYtUK8Y33
|
Will SpaceX deploy any Starlink satellites using Starship in 2024?
|
Resolves yes if Starship/Superheavy successfully deploys at least one Starlink satellite in a nominal orbit during 2024. The satellites don't need to function as long as they are deployed from Starship.
For a similar market but for commercial payloads, see this one: https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-starshipsuperheavy-commercial
|
2023-12-09T16:32:44
|
2024-12-31T15:15:38
|
2024-12-31T15:15:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VhOI6HyRSRAGAUl4z2gn
|
Will another Ivy League college president resign by December 23?
|
Liz Magill, the president of the University of Pennsylvania, has just resigned. The other Ivy League colleges are Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Brown, Columbia, Cornell, and Dartmouth. (Note that MIT is not an Ivy.)
Resolves NO if no such resignation has been announced by 6pm PT on Dec 23.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
|
2023-12-09T15:47:32
|
2023-12-23T18:00:00
|
2023-12-23T18:24:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2k77qaCmT6Sb4icGANJt
|
Will the departure of either of the Presidents of Harvard or MIT be announced this year?
|
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/06/democrats-harvard-mit-upenn-stefanik-00130471
https://x.com/damonlinker/status/1733601007135780924?s=46
A resignation announced in 2023 but which takes effect later, such as upon a replacement or interim replacement being appointed, will result in a YES resolution.
|
2023-12-09T14:51:05
|
2023-12-31T15:59:00
|
2023-12-31T16:11:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1vtchRMjh0XxKjxXNp6J
|
Will Harvard President, Claudine Gay, resign in next 6 months?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-09T13:58:18
|
2024-01-02T12:28:41
|
2024-01-02T12:28:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZAalhnJj93DDs1ij3TD1
|
Will the top chatbot in 2025 "think" before responding to a difficult prompt?
|
This market resolves YES if by January 1, 2025, the most popular chatbot creates "thoughts" when given difficult prompts, a la Chain-of-Thought. The thoughts must be separate from its final response.
By "thoughts," I mean data that the chatbot creates and maintains primarily for the purpose of improving its own responses, created and used across multiple forward passes, which occur after the entire prompt is provided to the model but before it starts writing a response. The thoughts must reason about how to solve the problem; for instance, it would not count if the model is simply prompted to "write a query to a search engine that will help answer this prompt."
The chatbot's thoughts should be separate from the "primary output" of the model; however, it's acceptable if the thoughts are viewable by clicking a button in the UI after the primary output has been presented. The thoughts can be human-interpretable or not (bet on which one in the companion market below).
Specifically, I will resolve YES if I believe that the top LLM "thinks" before answering at least 3 of the following 5 prompts:
Write a detective story. At the very end, the detective should use information scattered throughout the story to solve the mystery in a clever way.
Write a palindromic sentence. An example is "A man, a plan, a canal: Panama." The sentence should be at least 10 words long and must contain the word "lemon."
Write an original stand-up comedy bit that all leads up to a terrible, complicated pun.
Write a sonnet that doesn't use the letters A, E, or I.
Write a "code golf" Python script, using as few characters as possible to calculate and print the next stage of a 5x5 board of Conway's Game of Life. The initial board is represented by a 25-character string of ones and zeros, like "0001011100011100101011001", assigned to the variable x.
I will not bet in this market.
Companion market on whether these thoughts will be human-interpretable:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CalebBiddulph/if-the-top-chatbot-in-2025-thinks-b)
|
2023-12-09T13:02:11
|
2024-09-18T21:17:13
|
2024-09-18T21:17:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X91nOhGCd7AUBmP8BnAO
|
Will the UK end up with a hung parliament after the next general election?
|
Resolves YES if no political party wins a majority of seats (326 out of 650) in the next general election. As based on the official count after the election (not exit polls)
Does not take into account any by-elections taking place during the next parliament
Does not take into account MPs switching their party allegiance after the election
Resolves NO if a party wins 326 seats or more
|
2023-12-09T11:08:19
|
2024-07-06T12:18:00
|
2024-07-06T12:18:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JETzp8UWdpjX1Khbw8Gm
|
Will the Liberal Democrats win more than 30 seats in the House of Commons in the next UK general election?
|
The market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Democrats win more than 30 seats in the House of Commons as a result of the next UK general election.
The market will resolve to "No" if the Liberal Democrats win 30 seats or fewer.
The outcome should be based on the official election results as declared by the UK Electoral Commission.
The market will resolve after the official results are announced and will not change in case of any subsequent by-elections, defections, or changes in party affiliation of the elected MPs.
|
2023-12-09T10:16:45
|
2024-07-05T07:52:18
|
2024-07-05T07:52:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TO5Y22Gro88qINqPQQis
|
Will any migrants to the UK be sent to Rwanda in 2024?
|
The Conservative government in the UK wants to send Migrants to Rwanda. The UK has up to now paid Rwanda £240 million with more to come and not a single person has been shipped out.
The UK Sureme Court has declared the plan illegal. The government has introduced measures to address the court's concerns.
It is likely that further legal challenges and a UK election will obstruct the plan in 2024.
I will resolve the question if a group of migrants are sent and it is more than a publicity stunt of a very small number. I'll be the judge!
|
2023-12-09T03:28:46
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2025-01-02T13:48:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-07HUSoz0ky7KNbQXgDOr
|
Will Trump start tweeting again before the election?
|
I mean with some regularity, not just a one off post or something.
|
2023-12-08T22:09:44
|
2024-08-12T13:37:47
|
2024-08-12T13:37:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ch1U5KVrYoOt2919VDTc
|
Will Kate Cox get an abortion?
|
Kate Cox is a Dallas-area mother who found out that her fetus has trisomy 18, a genetic condition that can cause stillbirth or death of a newborn, and puts her fertility at risk. She is currently 20 weeks pregnant. While Texas prohibits almost all abortions, Kate Cox was granted an emergency order that would allow her to get the abortion. Texas attorney general Ken Paxton has said he will sue the doctor who intends to perform the abortion, Dr. Damla Karsan.
Petition: https://reproductiverights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/Cox-v.-Texas-original-petition-FINAL.pdf
Emergency Order: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna128537
Ken Paxton’s statement: https://x.com/txag/status/1732849903154450622?s=46
CRR’s response to Ken Paxton: https://reproductiverights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/In-re-State-of-Texas-Cox-Mandamus-Resp-FINAL-12-8-23.pdf
Texas Supreme Court’s Temporary Hold on Emergency Order: https://reproductiverights.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/23-0994_23-0994-Order-Issued-12-8-23.pdf
|
2023-12-08T17:29:56
|
2023-12-19T16:30:03
|
2023-12-19T16:30:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pEBzurvIdassKeqn35mc
|
Will Gemini Nano's weights be publicly availible before 2025?
|
Gemini Nano is on-device right now - on the Pixel 8 Pro. This potentially makes it vulnerable to attempts to extract the weights from such a device and publish them. Alternativelly, Google may decide to open source the weights.
This question Resolves to YES if between now and the end of 2024 it is possible for a member of the public to download the weights of Gemini Nano, or an updated version, in an unprotected format.
|
2023-12-08T15:16:43
|
2024-07-21T17:13:51
|
2024-07-21T17:13:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mDIpwWHQj5vZoHJV0NrL
|
Will Hamas be eradicated by 2025?
|
Resolves YES if Hamas:
No longer controls any territory
Does not organize a significant number of terrorist attacks
Is not a significant political party everywhere.
Looking for a standard for eradication similar to how ISIS were eradicated. That is, Hamas might still exist on paper, but they need not to matter anymore.
|
2023-12-08T14:38:33
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-31T23:07:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Gt2EHVaMuxqOzLB3ZMMO
|
Will a release date for Reputation (Taylor’s Version) be announced by February 15th 2024?
|
Reputation (Taylor’s Version) is the 5th of 6 Taylor Swift re-recordings and the next to be released. A date for its release has not yet been announced.
This market will resolve to Yes if a release date for the album has been announced by Taylor or her team via official channels before midnight February 15th 2024 US Central Standard Time.
|
2023-12-08T10:06:52
|
2024-02-15T16:59:39
|
2024-02-15T16:59:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MK4jdjHiNqxyXCldWDRx
|
Will Claudine Gay remain Harvard’s president until the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-08T08:31:55
|
2024-01-02T12:19:58
|
2024-01-02T12:19:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-junVJ0G7Xe3UGUguQZ7z
|
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-08T04:29:08
|
2024-12-05T09:11:37
|
2024-12-05T09:11:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hIkjUisWzdcRAwrB0Oux
|
Will OpenAI release a “Big Thing” next week?
|
[image]
|
2023-12-08T01:14:28
|
2023-12-15T23:59:00
|
2023-12-18T11:36:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pvjnJi5aKNKoZpUjdPOQ
|
Will OpenAI make a big product-related announcement in December 2023?
|
The market resolves as “Yes” if OpenAI makes an announcement in December similar to the ones listed below.
release of a GPT-4.5
progress update on GPT-5
release of a new consumer device
release of a serious open-source model
plans to work on something new such as AI chips
If the announcement just confirms things they already shared it won’t count e.g. rollout of the GPT-Store. The announcement has to be product-related.
[tweet]
|
2023-12-07T23:25:57
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:26:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f8hPsJURaBTjE3M25KwM
|
Will the Fed cut rates before October 21st?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-07T20:26:22
|
2024-09-24T14:48:27
|
2024-09-24T14:48:27
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fphthbaPEaqpRsxHMUau
|
Will IFT-3 Starship flight hardware remain intact?
|
The previous two integrated test flights have resulted in RUDs for both stages. On the next mission, IFT-3, will Starship's hardware be recoverable?
This market resolves to YES if Starship does not experience a RUD and returns to Earth successfully for recovery.
If SpaceX declares that the mission hardware will not be recovered and it does not RUD, that still qualifies for a YES.
|
2023-12-07T16:02:25
|
2024-03-27T13:40:52
|
2024-03-27T13:40:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r0uN7zwY0yRxBx0xq5Kj
|
Will Israel and Lebanon/Hezbollah go to war in 2024?
|
If Israel declares war on Hezbollah and not Lebanon, this market still resolves YES.
IE. If Israel declares war on Hezbollah, it still counts as war against Lebanon. Considering Hezbollah is almost the defacto military and one of the most prominant political parties in Lebanon.
Resolution will happen if either side declares war or performs wartime military action.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/8/9/israel-threatens-to-return-lebanon-to-stone-age-in-any-war-with-hezbollah
PSA:
I won't be betting in this market.
|
2023-12-07T11:06:06
|
2024-09-30T15:41:37
|
2024-09-30T15:41:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ip8PiYW7zMrkUwvokj9E
|
🌐 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before January 31st 2024?
|
RESOLVES YES:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc.
There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user.
Free or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.
(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)
RESOLVES NO:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc.
NOTES:
The Close Time Is The Deadline.
I may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.
CLARIFICATIONS:
12/08/2023 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.
1/29/2024:
[image]CONTEXT
Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models
[image]DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
Before February 29th Market
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-re-9219039de4b4)
|
2023-12-07T10:59:09
|
2024-01-30T20:59:00
|
2024-01-31T00:31:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ks1p4RldyC3QoDkC4c2k
|
🌐 Will Google's Gemini Ultra LLM Be Released To The Public Before February 29th 2024?
|
RESOLVES YES:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is available to the public through Google products, including search, ads, and Bard, etc.
There MUST be a product/app/extension offered that someone can use on desktop, web, or mobile to be able to confirm proof of the release. This could be myself, or another Manifold user.
Free or Paid counts, as long as it fits the criteria of Gemini Ultra.
(Ie., much like when ChatGPT was released on web first, than mobile app stores. Either of similar would resolve YES.)
RESOLVES NO:
If an announcement of release is made by Alphabet/Google and the use is not available to the public and only available to Corporate Customers, Developers, Enterprise, Partners, etc.
NOTES:
The Close Time Is The Deadline.
I may defer judgement to a third party individual of my choosing should anything be determined to be unclear.
CLARIFICATIONS:
12/08/2023 : Needs To Be Available To US Customers at a minimum.
CONTEXT
Gemini: A Family of Highly Capable Multimodal Models
[image]DISCLAIMER
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
DO NOT TRADE OFF OF UNCONFIRMED MARKET NEWS OR NEWS YOU MAY NOT UNDERSTAND. I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR MISUNDERSTANDING IF YOU DO NOT ASK FOR CLARIFICATION FIRST.
If Any Clarification Is Needed, I May Temporarily Close The Market To Make Clarifying Statements & Than Re-Open ; Feel Free To Ask For Clarification Through Messages Rather Than Making A Comment. Comments are not a clarification unless posted into the description.
BEFORE END OF MARCH MARKET:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/SirCryptomind/-will-googles-gemini-ultra-llm-be-r)
|
2023-12-07T10:58:40
|
2024-02-08T03:53:18
|
2024-02-08T03:53:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gRDpRW8YwRoMNUFPSMnO
|
Will Star Voting pass in Eugene, Oregon?
|
Eugene, Oregon will vote on switching to the Star Voting system (Score Then Automatic Runoff). It purports to solve the most egregious issues with ranked choice voting. Will it pass when it's voted on in May? NA if it's not on the ballot.
[image]
|
2023-12-07T10:54:15
|
2024-05-24T16:03:02
|
2024-05-24T16:03:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7EjAwddhnaJxEpuweIes
|
Will Destiny and Melina get back together before 1 April 2024?
|
Resolves YES if they both announce (seriously) they are getting back together AND/OR they start living together again at some point before 2024-04-01.
Else resolves NO.
|
2023-12-07T09:39:36
|
2024-04-01T09:31:00
|
2024-04-01T14:17:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mkves1DCNgJFy90OcEff
|
Will an AI system, product, company, concept, or affiliated person be *nominated* for TIME's 2024 Person of The Year?
|
Previously: @/SG/will-an-ai-system-product-company-c
This is for the 2024 shortlist, including the winner. Last year's shortlist had Altman, and so this question would have resolved Yes.
Note that Elon Musk will not count for this question unless his nomination is unambiguously dependent on his work with AI, and it's clear he would not have been nominated if not for that. So he would not have counted in 2021 or 2022. But if he is nominated because of XAI and Grok, this would resolve Yes. The same goes for any Google figure nominated due to Gemini, and so on.
If there is no shortlist and the winner is not AI-related, this resolves No.
See also:
@/Joshua/which-ai-system-product-company-con
@/Joshua/who-will-be-on-the-time-person-of-t-315061f8ffbe
@/Joshua/who-will-be-the-time-person-of-the-6ef43addcc5b
|
2023-12-07T09:29:53
|
2024-12-09T07:22:55
|
2024-12-09T07:29:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eH49NOSuo7pWooevawP6
|
Will Venezuela invade Brazil by 2024 year end?
|
There are no roads between Guyana and Venezuela. Their border is either very dense Amazon rainforest or mountains.
There is speculation in the Brazilian media that Venezuela would need to go through Brazilian territory to pursue their military endeavors inside Guyana's Essequibo.
If the Brazilian government or the Brazilian media calls that Venezuela has done a big invasion of Brazil (not just a single plane or a lost battalion), this market resolves to YES.
I may bet.
|
2023-12-07T09:24:16
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-15T20:35:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OCsyr6vS644bnxmBXH0C
|
[Metaculus] Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?
|
Will there be United Nations peacekeeping troops in Gaza on May 31, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19849/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as 'Yes' if, on May 31, 2024, there is an active United Nations-led peacekeeping operation physically present in the Gaza Strip. For the purposes of this question:
• An 'operation' is defined as any UN-led mission that includes peacekeeping troops, advisors, or observers officially deployed in a capacity recognized by the UN Security Council.
• The presence must be confirmed through an official announcement or mission update on the UN Peacekeeping: Where We Operate page.
• If the primary source is unavailable or not updated, resolution will be based on official statements from the United Nations or reports by at least two reputable international news organizations.
• The presence of any form of a UN delegation or individual personnel engaged in diplomatic discussions, without an accompanying peacekeeping mandate, does not fulfill the resolution criteria. Neither does the presence of members of the UN Palestine Refugee Agency (UNRWA).
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-12-07T05:32:31
|
2024-06-02T04:00:00
|
2024-06-04T10:30:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r75nmlbmB0HqxSq3d0YV
|
[Metaculus] Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?
|
Will there be a white Christmas in at least 4 of these 9 large European cities in 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20218/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The 10 largest cities in Europe according to Wikipedia are
Istanbul
Moscow
London
Saint Petersburg
Berlin
Madrid
Kyiv
Rome
Bucharest
Paris
For this question, we unfortunately have to exclude Kyiv due to the lack of standardised aerodrome weather reporting in the area.
Each of the remaining 9 cities will have been considered to have had a white Christmas if, on either of the days 24 December or 25 December, there has been precipitation in the form of snow.
If four or more of them have had a white Christmas, then this question resolves as Yes. Otherwise, it resolves as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-12-07T05:28:49
|
2023-12-29T03:00:00
|
2023-12-29T04:59:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zmZCo9v6kqMQxUkr1m0O
|
Will Gemini Ultra be part of Google One before 2024-07-01?
|
Resolves YES if
Google includes Chatbot Gemini Ultra in their Google One subscription packages.
Google One undergoes a rebranding that incorporates Gemini Ultra along with its existing subscription services.
Resolves NO if
The subscription for Gemini Ultra remains completely independent of Google One.
Gemini Ultra is not available by July 1st, 2024.
If Gemini Ultra will be freely available without subscription.
I will not bet on this market.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/derpy153/will-bard-advanced-be-a-subscriptio)
|
2023-12-07T01:09:16
|
2024-02-08T06:52:28
|
2024-02-08T06:52:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-p5uaETNWYokvxyy4ggEE
|
Will GPT 4.5 come out in December?
|
Whatever model OpenAI publicly identifies as GPT 4.5 will count.
[tweet]
|
2023-12-06T16:55:40
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:04:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UlEzW1mujMghb3cAXAm4
|
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated during 2024?
|
Including test and accidents.
|
2023-12-06T16:49:24
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:58:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nEGvS8GdaEYetghlXfb3
|
Will Destiny and Vaush have a conversation in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-06T11:27:04
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:05:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t8YG8jukZOGDBkr6FWHP
|
Will Claudine Gay still be president of Harvard by March 31st 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-06T11:16:25
|
2024-01-02T10:35:36
|
2024-01-02T10:35:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TLsBxeTuGEb1sYlYrr7T
|
Will OpenAI drop something new before Christmas which explicitly overtakes Gemini Ultra/puts them to shame in some way?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-06T09:11:53
|
2023-12-25T20:59:00
|
2023-12-26T03:46:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O2y8GFiKmjpwA47tD4i0
|
Will Google Gemini(Ultra) be released before April 1, 2024?
|
-The model should be publicly available in some form(integration with bard would be reasonable).This is the condition under which I will resolve the market to YES.
-If you have any other suggestions on what to add to this to make the market more reasonable,then please comment
-If real world throws a curveball so intense that we can't make head or toes of it then I will resolve N/A.
|
2023-12-06T08:51:39
|
2024-02-08T06:21:26
|
2024-02-08T06:21:26
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lf9OYzcf1i2sqEMZieXL
|
Will Bard Advanced (with Gemini Ultra) be launched by January 31, 2024?
|
From the December 6, 2023 blogpost announcing Gemini:
"Early next year, we’ll also launch Bard Advanced, a new, cutting-edge AI experience that gives you access to our best models and capabilities, starting with Gemini Ultra."
|
2023-12-06T07:49:36
|
2024-01-31T23:59:00
|
2024-02-01T00:50:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t5ms28qldPv1jfIkLz1g
|
Will anyone be forcibly removed from the 2024 Democratic National Convention?
|
Resolves YES if there is any reliable news story about someone being removed by security from the convention.
Someone prevented from entering does not count. Someone being escorted out by other attendees or medical professionals does not count.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/GCS/will-anyone-be-forcibly-removed-fro)
|
2023-12-06T06:26:22
|
2024-08-22T09:17:09
|
2024-08-22T09:17:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HyryqQCIxdeRtx4GqfkN
|
Will The Time Person of The Year be a repeat winner from prior years in 2024
|
This is excluding all unnamed groups of people who won in the past unless they are exactly the same.
I.e. if the winner is American women it would resolve yes but if an American women (Jennifer Lawrence) wins it will resolve no.
Here is the list excluded:
The American fighting-man / The American soldier (1950 and 2003)
The Hungarian freedom fighter (1956)
U.S. scientists (1960)
The Inheritor (1966)
Middle Americans (1969)
American women (1975)
You (2006)
The Protester (2011)
Ebola fighters (2014)
The Silence Breakers (2017)
The Guardians (2018)
If the winner is an unnamed list of people it will resolve as N/A
I will abstain from betting in this market
|
2023-12-06T06:19:36
|
2024-12-12T05:05:51
|
2024-12-12T05:05:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tmZFLNhhez7wMqsTeCSh
|
Will any explicitly leftist, pro-Palastine US organization or individual kill a Jewish person in the US before 2025?
|
The killing does not have to be strictly because they're Jewish, but it must be for something related, like their support for Israel. Or if it's unclear what the motive was, that must seem likely.
If the death was accidental that still counts if the violence was intentional. e.g. someone burns down a building and doesn't realize there's someone inside. But if it's completely accidental, like a peaceful and nonthreatening rally that causes a neurotic Jewish person to have a heart attack out of fear, or getting into a car accident with a Jew, that doesn't count.
Only counts instances after market creation.
Update 2025-02-01 (PST): - Pro-Palestine Inclusion: Any individual or organization that is pro-Palestine counts, regardless of their explicit leftist affiliation. (AI summary of creator comment)
|
2023-12-06T05:50:37
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T08:24:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Rm4KyHdWOJua63kn3J4Q
|
Will Israel capture or kill Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas chief in Gaza, by 3/31/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-06T04:24:25
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T00:49:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mIJferga9CmoZNjdNPBr
|
GTA 6 TRAILER 250 MILLION CLICKS IN FIRST MONTH?
|
Will the first, official GTA 6 YouTube Trailer get 250 million or more clicks in its first month after release - by "clicks" i mean views on the youtube view counter.
|
2023-12-05T23:43:06
|
2024-01-05T14:59:00
|
2024-01-05T16:40:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3HlAydWbV9LuHxkzUXqR
|
Will BTC reach $100,000 by midnight April 20th, 2024 (approximately three days after the next halvening)?
|
Self Explanatory
|
2023-12-05T21:41:14
|
2024-04-20T00:16:43
|
2024-04-20T00:16:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IPaRpenvbyRFsiWmgGDC
|
Will Tekken 8 have a Metacritic score of 85 or higher as of January 29th?
|
This market will resolve based on the overall Metascore rating from journalists, not any one particular console. The target score was based on past entries in the franchise, if applicable.
|
2023-12-05T20:16:23
|
2024-01-29T16:20:25
|
2024-01-29T16:20:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mnk8WwfNDK0LiSn5H8d3
|
Recent SEC filings show Elon Musk hopes to raise $1B for xAI. Will they be able to raise $1B or more by EOY 2024?
|
Info: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2002695/000200269523000002/xslFormDX01/primary_doc.xml
As of Dec 5th 2023:
Total Offering Amount $1,000,000,000 USD
Total Amount Sold $134,679,312 USD
Total Remaining to be Sold $865,320,688 USD
|
2023-12-05T19:56:09
|
2024-05-27T11:20:41
|
2024-05-27T11:20:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GmPrrSMaZ2XP58rf8u4i
|
Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
|
Will there be a new crisis before the 2024 election?
Examples include:
A new viral threat that ends with government regulation similar to 2020
A new war (or Israel/Ukraine heats up to the point that there are significant U.S. boots on the ground)
Major chains of riots (like the BLM riots of summer 2020 - not a single riot, or a brief couple of days of rioting)
Economic crisis akin to 2008/2020 - not just a drop in markets
In the end, this will be based on my judgment, and because of that I will not bet on this market.
|
2023-12-05T12:11:26
|
2024-11-05T20:59:00
|
2024-11-17T02:36:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bmO1PWVLnWJP1d1b6TxF
|
Will the Cincinnati Bengals shred the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:47:26
|
2023-12-31T19:18:52
|
2023-12-31T19:18:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sIhwdZnMlj5UxsCs3pPk
|
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers crush the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 SUN 4:05PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:45:33
|
2023-12-31T19:16:25
|
2023-12-31T19:16:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bBIeUGkdomTMlUPtguYn
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers dynamite the Washington Commanders? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:44:22
|
2023-12-31T19:18:11
|
2023-12-31T19:18:11
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x4kAxPpFiRTpkTJgHB5s
|
Will the New Orleans Saints capsize the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:43:17
|
2023-12-31T19:17:52
|
2023-12-31T19:17:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7cX02kRwc7pbZsfsdZDT
|
Will the Arizona Cardinals peck the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:42:28
|
2023-12-31T19:17:15
|
2023-12-31T19:17:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ojxfxSWDJgxDc8hmkfel
|
Will the LA Rams lightning-strike the NY Giants? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:41:36
|
2023-12-31T19:16:42
|
2023-12-31T19:16:42
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-A1bBvCcmxPUkqZNPdiQZ
|
Will the Carolina Panthers rip-apart the Jacksonville Jaguars? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:40:34
|
2023-12-31T19:21:28
|
2023-12-31T19:21:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QCIpHiDEoQ1iqntXD3lA
|
Will the Las Vegas Raiders scavenge the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:40:00
|
2023-12-31T19:19:53
|
2023-12-31T19:19:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g2j6AtDbtW3Pfnws4yuG
|
Will the Atlanta Falcons claw the Chicago Bears? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:38:29
|
2023-12-31T19:21:00
|
2023-12-31T19:21:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BVlNyS6mEeu3pQu04hNH
|
Will the New England Patriots hunt the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:37:52
|
2023-12-31T19:20:44
|
2023-12-31T19:20:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x0glc2OeydduTafWSkOK
|
Will the Miami Dolphins splash the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:36:02
|
2023-12-31T19:20:20
|
2023-12-31T19:20:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UWLM2pjqZf1kLCXthfw7
|
Will the Arizona Cardinals peck the Chicago Bears? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:30:51
|
2023-12-24T19:29:24
|
2023-12-24T19:29:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y94n2hzPfJiNKmZOy6O9
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys lasso the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:30:19
|
2023-12-24T19:30:10
|
2023-12-24T19:30:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sS91K52aiK2tRVe1jTzu
|
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars tear apart the Tampa Bay Buccaneers? 🏈 SUN 4:05PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:29:41
|
2023-12-24T19:30:29
|
2023-12-24T19:30:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NCUq8mjdXolaKHQszRyc
|
Will the Indianapolis Colts stomp the Atlanta Falcons? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:28:54
|
2023-12-24T19:37:29
|
2023-12-24T19:37:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7BFVVdr3zk7rn7iaO0RE
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks dive-bomb the Tennessee Titans? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:28:19
|
2023-12-24T19:29:43
|
2023-12-24T19:29:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FcyH1QhhV6IghywC5LJh
|
Will the Green Bay Packers ship & handle the Carolina Panthers? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:27:28
|
2023-12-24T19:28:58
|
2023-12-24T19:28:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qo1IYV405jZsgf6pxWqJ
|
Will the Detroit Lions run over the Minnesota Vikings? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:25:38
|
2023-12-24T19:36:41
|
2023-12-24T19:36:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fc6ZXjalWhyjqpUw1FkY
|
Will the Washington Commanders dominate the NY Jets? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:24:38
|
2023-12-24T19:37:00
|
2023-12-24T19:37:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0SrIqEBTAzB22CGGDgO3
|
Will the Tennessee Titans destroy the Houston Texans? 🏈 SUN 1PM
|
YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties.
|
2023-12-05T11:23:53
|
2023-12-31T19:19:31
|
2023-12-31T19:19:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NKM6oCA1aVmnxnYkB9JH
|
Will the Oct 7 rape claims be substantiated by an independent investigation?
|
There are many testimonies currently being given and circulated in media about incidents of mass rape of Israeli women on Oct 7.
This market will track whether an independent investigation is done and will resolve to yes if such investigation determines that these sexual crimes against women did in fact occur.
This is a timed market and ends end of 2024.
Independent organization means any recognized human rights org or other orgs that do not have direct ties or interests with Israeli security apparatus.
A single isolated case of rape will not resolve this to yes. What must be shown by the investigation is that multiple people were involved and multiple women were raped.
|
2023-12-05T07:40:17
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-06T01:56:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6g3rEvwdTPX53OkK3PaG
|
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy still be the President of Ukraine on January 1, 2025?
|
This will resolve NO if for any reason Zelenskyy stops being the President of Ukraine before January 1 2025.
|
2023-12-05T07:34:08
|
2025-01-01T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T15:01:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RJJvOlbchbIob29IRuGP
|
Will there be a financial markets' panic due to expectations of a 2nd Trump administration by inauguration day?
|
If from now until Inauguration Day we have a financial markets' panic (stock market, bond market, volatility, dollar) going risk-off due to the increasing realization that Trump is the Republican nominee and that the election is a coin-toss, this market resolves to YES.
I'll rely on the financial media calling it that way. In particular, I'll rely on Bloomberg's John Authers newsletter and FT Alphaville, but also the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, and the Vital Knowledge investment newsletter. A panic will be called if any of these conditions are valid:
The S&P 500 is in a 10% drawdown in less than 45 days
The 2y treasury is a 50bps drawdown in less than 45 days
The 10y treasury is a 75bps drawdown in less than 45 days
The DXY is up 7% in less than 45 days
The VIX Index is above 35
Then having a panic being called, I'll rely on my own judgement as also the wording of the above mentioned financial media participants to determine whether it was triggered by Trump's election.
I won't bet.
EDIT: Actually, I am betting. @Joshua gently agreed to be a 3rd party adjudicator on this market and I'll abide by his call if any controversy arises. What constitutes a panic is well defined, therefore, it's just a matter of presenting evidence that the financial media is attributing it to Donald Trump.
Related markets.
[markets]
|
2023-12-05T05:23:13
|
2025-01-20T18:59:00
|
2025-01-21T20:04:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-P3a7bA6HiXrOQ2azPYfJ
|
Will the UK government pass legislation defining Rwanda as a “safe country” before the next General Election?
|
The UK government has repeatedly stated that one of their top priorities (or even their top priority) is to “Stop The Boats” - to discourage refugees and asylum seekers from crossing the Channel in small boats and claiming asylum once they reach British soil.
They claim that the best way to do this is to forcibly remove asylum seekers to Rwanda, where their asylum claims can be judged under Rwandan law and they can be settled as refugees in Rwanda is they are successful.
On 15th November, the UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the plan was unlawful, finding as a matter of fact that refugees sent to Rwanda were at serious risk of being returned to the countries from which they were escaping persecution.
On 16th November, Rishi Sunak announced that he would pass “emergency legislation” defining Rwanda to be a safe place for Refugees. He has since spoken about cancelling Parliament’s Christmas recess so that they can vote on the legislation!
To become law, the legislation will have to clear three hurdles:
Pass the House of Commons (presumably in a heavily whipped vote)
Pass the House of Lords (not subject to the Salisbury Convention since this was not a manifesto pledge)
Receive Royal Assent (this should be a formality)
Will it pass all three hurdles before Parliament is dissolved for the next General Election?
Note - If the legislation is modified or amended so heavily that it can not be said to be declaring Rwanda as a safe country or a safe place for refugees (eg. If it says that there should be an assumption that it is but that the courts have the power to judge that as a matter of fact), this will resolve to NO.
If you're wondering when the next General Election will be, take a look at this market:
@/SimonGrayson/uk-general-election-which-month-in-6ab8406103dd
|
2023-12-05T02:49:42
|
2024-05-08T22:26:29
|
2024-05-08T22:26:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OgXJFUHddrtqmVAbfwUd
|
Will the Ukrainians get the German Taurus cruise missile before the end of 2024?
|
Many western countries have provided military aid to Ukraine in its ongoing conflict with Russia. One item that has been discussed relatively frequently is the Taurus cruise missile currently in German inventories. It is similar to french/british SCALP EG/Storm Shadow, which has already been provided, and is also available in Spanish and South Korean inventories..
You can read more about the issue here:
https://www.politico.eu/article/why-germany-scholz-rattled-sending-taurus-missile-ukraine/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350
This question will resolve Yes as soon as it provided to/appears in Ukraine or is used in the conflict in a way that generally favors the Ukrainian side. Otherwise, it will resolve to NO on December 31st 2024.
In the interest of transparency, here are some thoughts on how I will resolve the question in ambiguous situations:
This question will also resolve Yes if the missile is provided by a party other than Germany, or if it simply appears/is used without any official announcement. Without an announcement, OSINT analysis may visually identify the weapon somehow. I'm willing to accept such evidence only if it comes from a reasonably reliable source, such as the twitter account "@noclador".
Weapons deliveries are frequently announced ahead of time, and confirmed some time after delivery. The actual time/location of delivery is rarely revealed for tactical reasons. This may complicate the resolution of this question. For example, we may end up knowing that the missile was delivered in December 2024 or January 2025, without knowing the exact date. In case of such ambiguity, the question will resolve Yes.
If a variant of the Taurus, such as the KEPD 350K or KEPD 350K-2 is delivered, the question will also resolve Yes.
If a third party intervenes in the conflict and uses the Taurus to support Ukrainian interests, this question will also resolve Yes.
|
2023-12-05T01:28:36
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T09:24:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KQ50mDMKdpGX9aZXABuX
|
Will Joe Biden be the last (de facto) US president?
|
"Yes" means that there will be no president after Joe Biden who either holds office or has the same power/authority of past US presidents, as well as effective control over the bulk of US territory.
|
2023-12-04T17:43:19
|
2025-01-20T18:45:15
|
2025-01-20T18:45:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6k0L25k8QMXwIZfQGPnA
|
Will the US conduct airstrikes in Yemen in 2023?
|
As the Iranian-backed Houthis continue to escalate their attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, the prospect of a potential US response on Yemeni territory presents itself. Will only resolve YES if it is an airstrike and if the attack is on Yemen’s sovereign territory.
|
2023-12-04T16:13:19
|
2024-01-01T02:59:31
|
2024-01-01T02:59:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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