id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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mani-o6gCM6hrKo9V2vL7hNoV | Will Chris Christie be the next canadite to drop out | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-04T15:32:10 | 2024-01-10T18:38:12 | 2024-01-10T18:38:12 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ge4kkBzqG9JGtJAKSZpl | Will the S&P 500 close higher on December 5 than it closed on December 4? | Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of December (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a pri... | 2023-12-04T14:14:12 | 2023-12-05T11:00:00 | 2023-12-05T14:24:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OzqpVDjUIiN97Nzm13DR | Will the Philadelphia Eagles rip-apart the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 MNF | YES if Eagles win. NO if Seahawks win or tie. | 2023-12-04T13:52:12 | 2023-12-18T20:19:56 | 2023-12-18T20:19:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1CxDjQ5phiWZzPJ0oYLf | Will the Washington Commanders crush the LA Rams? 🏈 SUN 4:05PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:44:45 | 2023-12-17T19:54:46 | 2023-12-17T19:54:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ROdMom9Xe1BmSudlh8tg | Will the San Francisco 49ers excavate the Arizona Cardinals? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:44:13 | 2023-12-17T19:51:54 | 2023-12-17T19:51:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BGQlJuB5RCjzGGM2cJQ2 | Will the Houston Texans drill the Tennessee Titans? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:43:04 | 2023-12-17T19:44:54 | 2023-12-17T19:44:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vPhyzQQLMy2nyElOCxOQ | Will the New York Jets air raid the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:41:46 | 2023-12-17T19:46:52 | 2023-12-17T19:46:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gf3GYZp442IC4EpLUxe0 | Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers pillage the Green Bay Packers? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:40:53 | 2023-12-17T19:52:40 | 2023-12-17T19:52:40 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zlL57AS3ukaGYUAYHPjb | Will the Atlanta Falcons prey on the Carolina Panthers? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:40:11 | 2023-12-17T19:55:28 | 2023-12-17T19:55:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rwsQ5GpYAf5Ps7xeDsQs | Will the Chicago Bears maul the Cleveland Browns? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:39:33 | 2023-12-17T19:53:20 | 2023-12-17T19:53:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8dRGvLrApmGUf3AGUTXv | Will the NY Giants stomp the New Orleans Saints? 🏈 SUN 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:39:01 | 2023-12-17T19:54:02 | 2023-12-17T19:54:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0IGIs49drHC0E05GKrga | Will the Denver Broncos trample the Detroit Lions? 🏈 SAT 8:15PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:38:02 | 2023-12-16T20:59:00 | 2023-12-17T19:56:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VFRlgjnwZxtJEvhqdEKq | Will the Pittsburgh Steelers stamp the Indianapolis Colts? 🏈 SAT 4:30PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:37:14 | 2023-12-16T17:04:51 | 2023-12-16T17:04:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-N1NLHUi83WKf91kPswtt | Will the Minnesota Vikings raid the Cincinnati Bengals? 🏈 SAT 1PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:35:27 | 2023-12-16T17:05:17 | 2023-12-16T17:05:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3DGAaRTgtJZSn6AMTBmc | Will the NFL ban the Tush Push before next season? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-04T13:33:42 | 2024-04-25T18:33:10 | 2024-04-25T18:33:10 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WyZE4D6gLwSNlYMxwByY | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the San Francisco 49ers? 🏈 Christmas Day | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:24:34 | 2023-12-25T20:46:32 | 2023-12-25T20:46:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-db7IHlZy9U9yVKxsRS4E | Will the Las Vegas Raiders ravage the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 Christmas Day | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:23:45 | 2023-12-25T18:54:58 | 2023-12-25T18:54:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-npnWWFxxG5K4m5hwJpc0 | Will the New York Giants stomp the Philadelphia Eagles? 🏈 Christmas Day | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:23:00 | 2023-12-25T18:55:40 | 2023-12-25T18:55:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8Eg4AfI2HjzQ4Sn8TBl1 | Will the Buffalo Bills crush the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 SUN 4:25PM | YES if they win. NO if other team (second team in question) wins or ties. | 2023-12-04T13:21:17 | 2023-12-10T17:39:21 | 2023-12-10T17:39:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-9bQ7oPvErxnYWK5Syykm | Will the Buffalo Bills stampede the LA Chargers? 🏈 SAT 8 PM | YES if Bills win. NO if Chargers win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:40:55 | 2023-12-23T20:01:47 | 2023-12-23T20:01:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-hZ9OJ9B7sNU49epiNcaP | Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025? | Resolves YES if any of (the U.S. government, Economist, WSJ, NYT, or FT) reports there was a bombing at an Iranian nuclear facility (any location on this list, or a site the article refers to as a nuclear facility) before Jan 1 2025 (Tehran local time).
If the news source reports an explosion at the site with an unkn... | 2023-12-04T12:39:28 | 2024-10-29T17:09:37 | 2024-10-29T17:09:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2OvVscP0FfhP93GuafDp | Will the Cincinnati Bengals slash the Pittsburgh Steelers? 🏈 SAT 4:30 PM | YES if Bengals win. NO if Steelers win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:38:59 | 2023-12-23T19:17:14 | 2023-12-23T19:17:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3B9GKqQHliFQHk8d6qWv | Will the Green Bay Packers box-up the Minnesota Vikings? 🏈 SNF | YES if Packers win. NO if Vikings win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:37:23 | 2023-12-31T20:22:37 | 2023-12-31T20:22:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-eK16zjBWdOUbmp9nBbs6 | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the Jacksonville Jaguars? 🏈 SNF | YES if Ravens win. NO if Jaguars win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:35:44 | 2023-12-17T20:26:10 | 2023-12-17T20:26:10 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FhKRlejEA0Nnk55pkaXn | Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈 SNF | YES if Eagles win. NO if Cowboys win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:34:49 | 2023-12-10T20:37:30 | 2023-12-10T20:37:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-v84XH5xIidpjK6PkCo9N | Will the New York Jets blitzkrieg the Cleveland Browns? 🏈 TNF | YES if Jets win. NO if Browns win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:33:27 | 2023-12-28T20:21:51 | 2023-12-28T20:21:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-T6jBdHV4hLDm6llPNaAi | Will the New Orleans Saints come marching in on the LA Rams? 🏈 TNF | YES if Saints win. NO if Rams win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:32:04 | 2023-12-21T20:08:29 | 2023-12-21T20:08:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZSOOc8v9UWOStCOwEhmD | Will the Detroit Lions maul the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈 SAT 8:15 PM | YES if Lions win. NO if Cowboys win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:24:26 | 2023-12-31T05:20:17 | 2023-12-31T05:20:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vxFUcPXMsMYu25uml42C | Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the San Francisco 49ers? 🏈 MNF | YES if Ravens win. NO if 49ers win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:22:26 | 2023-12-25T20:45:27 | 2023-12-25T20:45:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-1pJRwo8mebOwhBHU91Vt | Will the Kansas City Chiefs tomahawk the New England Patriots? 🏈 SUN 1 PM | YES if Chiefs win. NO if Patriots win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:20:26 | 2023-12-17T19:45:44 | 2023-12-17T19:45:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-2Xl6V6s94UbbriPCRDI4 | Will the Green Bay Packers ship-out the New York Giants? 🏈 MNF | YES if Packers win. NO if Giants win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:18:36 | 2023-12-11T20:24:04 | 2023-12-11T20:24:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-l9eQ8KULGvW8EXElRejR | Will the Tennessee Titans harpoon the Miami Dolphins? 🏈 MNF | YES if Titans win. NO if Dolphins win or tie. | 2023-12-04T12:17:26 | 2023-12-11T20:45:22 | 2023-12-11T20:45:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-z4kp4DdY38MHWdoW2JwR | Will Barcelona beat Club America? | [image] | 2023-12-04T12:05:56 | 2023-12-21T20:56:11 | 2023-12-21T20:56:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6i6SXTPOXp2wR5XXbPDD | Will Columbus beat LAFC? ⚽ MLS Cup Final | Final match outcome. | 2023-12-04T12:03:07 | 2023-12-09T16:56:51 | 2023-12-09T16:56:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6B9O4qi7YbLd3fspP86D | Will Barron Trump attened UPenn for college? | All of the Trump children, except for Eric, went to UPenn. Yes, even Tiffany.
This will resolve YES if it announced that Barron Trump will attend UPenn. Will Legacy admissions last long enough to help Mssr. Trump? Maybe he's going to a speciality school for gigantors, or to play professional soccer??
The end date is ... | 2023-12-04T10:55:19 | 2024-09-04T11:59:53 | 2024-09-04T11:59:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U5ixI5kzMWaH7QiomwqV | Will Alaska Airlines acquire Hawaiian Airlines by December 2025? | Self-describing. If the mainstream media reports that Alaska has completed the acquisition of Hawaiian by December 31st 2025, this market resolves to YES.
I may bet on this market.
Related market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/MetaculusBot/will-jetblue-announce-that-it-has-a) | 2023-12-04T10:08:56 | 2024-10-11T00:11:45 | 2024-10-11T00:11:45 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HlWBeyAruyDDrK07wMwV | Will Jimmy Carter Be Alive on Presidents Day? | Resolves YES if my dad (president jimmy carter) is publicly alive on February 19th, 2024. | 2023-12-04T07:40:52 | 2024-02-19T21:59:00 | 2024-02-20T07:42:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pcp9IPlDPPglJeuBv7Ec | Will Donald Trump win the Iowa caucus by 25 or more points? | Results to the closest 0.1 percentage points. If Trump does not participate in the caucus for any reason, this resolves no. | 2023-12-04T06:52:21 | 2024-01-15T21:14:18 | 2024-01-15T21:14:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-56ZhRLUzyti5W1ctMXFN | Will Arizona have an abortion referendum on the ballot in 2024? | Market will close after 2024 election | 2023-12-04T06:44:19 | 2024-12-14T07:51:00 | 2024-12-17T09:26:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HYo3wzI2iHt6ME1NUZB8 | Will the Eagles and 49ers face each other in the playoffs? | Resolves YES if they face each other at any point in the postseason following the 2023 NFL regular season, regardless of location. Can resolve as soon as matchup is set. | 2023-12-04T06:41:50 | 2024-01-15T20:23:44 | 2024-01-15T20:23:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vwNRBKnSRr9X5Cu5J73B | Will China conduct a nuclear test in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize? | 2023-12-04T05:24:42 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T03:03:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4SRbIWnkp0d6C3Qqd1Gg | Will Ron DeSantis be one of the top three candidates in the 2024 New Hampshire Republican primary? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-04T00:26:15 | 2024-01-23T20:06:36 | 2024-01-23T20:06:36 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-qil0sabjfn7TcTlGPTlY | Will Bitcoin rally to $100,000 before the end of 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-03T21:58:41 | 2024-12-04T18:59:20 | 2024-12-04T18:59:20 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mjZ7gkW4uTO29izKNm84 | Were "Animate Anyone" demos faked? | Animate anyone released with impressive demos (link) and a few great results:
Challenges persist in the realm of image-to-video, especially in character animation, where temporally maintaining consistency with detailed information from character remains a formidable problem.
To preserve consistency of intricate appea... | 2023-12-03T20:40:54 | 2023-12-25T01:26:01 | 2023-12-25T01:26:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-detPWBTQ4pLecK1iclxq | Will Donald Trump win Puerto Rico's Republican Primary? | ¿Donald Trump ganará las primarias presidenciales republicanas de 2024 en Puerto Rico? Resolverá YES si Donald Trump gana una pluralidad de los 23 delegados al CNR. En caso contrario, resolverá NO.
Donald Trump ganó 0 de 23 delegados en 2016 y 23 de 23 delegados en 2020 (a través de una encuesta en línea).
Will Donal... | 2023-12-03T20:10:41 | 2024-04-21T21:59:00 | 2024-04-21T22:03:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-XeZ4TyqG6HrfPjDLV4ok | Will a US judge lose their job for outsourcing judgement to an LLM before 2025? | I will resolve this using reliable sources.
Update 2025-04-01 (PST): - Unless evidence to the contrary is provided within the next day, the market will be resolved to No. (AI summary of creator comment) | 2023-12-03T18:51:50 | 2025-01-03T20:59:00 | 2025-01-05T06:45:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KH4CaH5ilnyi8y2h4PM5 | Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 in 2024? | If in 2024 (ET timezone), BTC price (Coingecko's 4hr average) goes below $30,000, this will resolve YES.
---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎 | 2023-12-03T15:30:19 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:59:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9nKMrPmKGpqmWNReJPEW | Will Putin's approval in Russia fall below 75% in 2024? | If anything, support and trust in Russian President Vladimir Putin has increased since the war in Ukraine started at the end of February 2022.
According to the independent Levada Center polling agency, 81% of Russians surveyed in January 2022 said they approve of Putin’s actions as president. In January 2023 it was 82... | 2023-12-03T15:28:53 | 2025-01-03T10:38:29 | 2025-01-03T10:38:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-daUIeOhk8vNBtgrCpxz8 | Will Ethereum reach $8,000 in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-03T14:58:08 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-26T20:23:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M1cvtZCLZWdOY3RRuUbM | Will Joe Biden live through the end of his presidential term? | Resolves NO if Joe Biden is not reelected and dies by January 20th, 2025 (or whenever the next president is inaugurated).
Resolves NO if Joe Biden is reelected and dies by January 20th, 2029 (or whenever the next president is inaugurated).
Resolves YES if Joe Biden is alive and resigns or is removed from office.
... | 2023-12-03T13:44:18 | 2025-02-13T11:50:59 | 2025-02-13T11:50:59 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lvNAz8KusGkQi74lc2MS | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #17 Iowa beat #21 Tennessee in the Citrus Bowl? | 2024-01-01 at 1 PM ET in Orlando, FL. Line: Tennessee -5.5. | 2023-12-03T13:15:18 | 2024-01-01T14:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:59:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-X1hgW6L9gi3k71Im1dDL | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will the national champion finish with a 15-0 record? | National Championship Game: Monday, January 8, 2024 - 6:30 PM CST | 2023-12-03T12:49:36 | 2024-01-08T09:19:00 | 2024-01-08T20:12:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mzOfTfAkZwEYzCxX8NW3 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Wisconsin beat #13 LSU in the ReliaQuest Bowl? | 2024-01-01 at 12 PM ET in Tampa, FL. | 2023-12-03T12:48:34 | 2024-01-01T12:37:52 | 2024-01-01T12:37:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kogh6Sc0vVkACP1fcOMv | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #9 Missouri beat #7 Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl? | 2023-12-29 at 8 PM ET in Arlington, TX. Line: Ohio State -3. | 2023-12-03T12:39:12 | 2023-12-29T20:37:56 | 2023-12-29T20:37:56 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Kx9ZPPLJVTYH8vBVGIUT | Will Jimmy Carter survive Christmas dinner? | Christmas Day in US, 8pm eastern time | 2023-12-03T12:36:14 | 2023-12-26T07:10:02 | 2023-12-26T07:10:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vsW04SAC3XcCFXMAqsCF | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #6 Georgia beat #5 Florida State in the Orange Bowl? | 2023-12-30 at 4 PM ET in Miami Gardens, FL. | 2023-12-03T12:34:34 | 2023-12-30T17:00:00 | 2023-12-30T18:58:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-BL7dIZkNlYRq6MFY3PYq | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #23 Liberty beat #8 Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl? | 2024-01-01 at 1 PM ET in Glendale, AZ. Line: Oregon -18. | 2023-12-03T12:31:43 | 2024-01-01T14:00:00 | 2024-01-01T15:59:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IRx3sMYZKro9tzh5ffJZ | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #3 Texas beat #2 Washington in the Sugar Bowl CFP Semifinal? | 2024-01-01 at 8:45 PM ET in New Orleans, LA. Line: Texas -4. | 2023-12-03T11:20:31 | 2024-01-01T21:50:49 | 2024-01-01T21:50:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AVrOksywqjw8Tk2oQIWl | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #4 Alabama beat #1 Michigan in the Rose Bowl CFP Semifinal? | 2024-01-01 at 5 PM ET in Pasadena, CA. Line: Michigan -1.5. | 2023-12-03T11:17:42 | 2024-01-01T17:45:00 | 2024-01-01T17:45:00 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MdSiMjN7itOgLvT0wka5 | Will e/acc and/or Beff be identified or associated with domestic terrorism before the end of the year? | Beff and gang are getting the scrutiny. This poll is to assess whether the media landscape views accelerationism as a potentially violent and radicalized group.
Poll will resolve to YES if one can reasonably demonstrate that a major media organ has drawn lines between accelerationism (the type associated with altruism... | 2023-12-03T09:48:10 | 2024-01-02T21:59:00 | 2024-01-03T09:26:34 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-e6OrmyVRsLUcrnQu2hO0 | Will Joe Biden be nominated by Democratic Primary for re-election in 2024? | Biden is now 81 years old. His physical and mental fitness are hotly contested in different circles.
This market will resolve YES if he is successfully nominated by the Democratic Party Primary for re-election in 2024. | 2023-12-03T05:27:01 | 2024-07-22T17:02:14 | 2024-07-22T17:02:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZmazWHaVH1a8dMIAg1xH | Will Destiny and Melina get divorced in 2024? | ******EDIT: Destiny's word is not enough to confirm the divorce is legally done. Will wait for actual proof or at least a confirmation from Mel.******
The divorce would have to be legally finished during 2024.
Resolves N/A if either of them ask me to respect their privacy.
| 2023-12-03T04:27:24 | 2024-02-21T09:43:05 | 2024-02-21T09:43:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-AqBd7VqEVqepj4omgbG3 | Will the temperature on any day in January 2024 be lower than the temperature on that day in January 2023? | This question will resolve according to the data on this site. This question resolves according to the site's aggregated data, regardless of underlying methodology. If the daily surface air temperature on any day in January 2024 is strictly less than the 2023 temperature on that day, this will resolve to Yes, otherwise... | 2023-12-02T22:26:43 | 2024-02-09T20:05:38 | 2024-02-09T20:05:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-1OPzaAGKicxzI1Tcw6fV | Will Destiny say the N word again before the end of January? | For clarification, both soft A and hard R count.
If it is due to reading a sentence or quoting history it still counts.
Typing the word also counts, however if its censored (i.e N***er) then it will depend on the context and i'll decide at my own discretion.
If a screenshot of something like leaked DM's show him t... | 2023-12-02T22:02:00 | 2024-01-23T02:07:31 | 2024-01-23T02:07:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6x70k3lgAGYItlFmX7sy | Will hasan and destiny talk together on stream during 2024? | This can happen on either persons stream.
This must be during an actual call, talking through clips does not count.
If for some reason it does happen, and I am unaware of it (a few days must have past), please link the clip/VOD in the comment section. | 2023-12-02T21:53:59 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2024-12-31T19:04:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3ERTMvwq7RdhVahV2Jci | Will the Green Bay Packers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 13 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Packers win
No - Chiefs win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-12-02T20:40:42 | 2023-12-03T20:39:53 | 2023-12-03T20:40:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xMU1KSN42FxaLZFQSUlB | Will Nikki Haley overtake and lead Ron DeSantis on 538's Republican Primary 2024 page on Festivus (Dec 23rd)? | Info: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/ | 2023-12-02T20:39:21 | 2023-12-23T07:48:19 | 2023-12-23T07:48:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-G8FXQtjviBx4iUG23yw4 | Will Twitter/X be bankrupt by 12/31/24? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-02T19:48:49 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T17:41:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-g32lSffmEU2dmgXFQf5V | Will Bitcoin gift $45k by Christmas? | Resolves YES if the Bitcoin high is at least $45,000 as reported in CoinMarketCap’s historical data for any day (since market creation) up to and including December 25, 2023 (UTC time), otherwise NO.
[image] | 2023-12-02T17:25:13 | 2023-12-25T16:25:06 | 2023-12-25T16:25:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-jr7I1on97IA2RTcK124S | Will Nikki Haley get more votes than Ron DeSantis in the Iowa Caucus? | The 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses will be held on January 15, 2024 | 2023-12-02T15:30:34 | 2024-01-16T18:07:24 | 2024-01-16T18:07:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vsIRBURSVZvxPGRkWVcE | Will there be a Government Shutdown in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-12-02T14:56:47 | 2024-12-21T09:44:33 | 2025-01-10T13:09:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QnZym7H3zg5EieuvN5cB | Will SCOTUS rule for Alexander in Alexander v. South Carolina State Conf of the NAACP by 7/31/24? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
A decision in favor of Alexander against South Carolina could have significant implications for redistrictin... | 2023-12-02T11:41:12 | 2024-05-31T05:39:00 | 2024-05-31T05:39:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6WQMAhBwFh3144HDLCl1 | Will SCOTUS rule in favor of Garland in Garland v. Cargill before July 31, 2024? | [500M subsidy]
A ruling in favor of Garland would uphold the ATF's ban on bump stocks (a type of gun) and effectively prohibit their use in the United States by classifying it as a machine gun. A ruling against the classification could significantly alter the regulation of firearms and potentially impact gun control p... | 2023-12-02T11:38:07 | 2024-06-14T10:07:08 | 2024-06-14T10:07:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Nz3iCzue7KpWd6XLyQfx | Will SCOTUS rule in favor of the NRA in National Rifle Association v. Vullo before July 31, 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
The NRA alleges that Vullo, under the behest of former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo, used the DFS's regula... | 2023-12-02T11:32:31 | 2024-06-02T10:08:24 | 2024-06-02T10:08:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wS1dfve3ZjXrYKkb95yR | Will China report a deficit in foreign direct investment for at least 2 quarters in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
"China's first deficit in foreign investment signals West's 'de-risking' pressure" Reuters: https://www.reut... | 2023-12-02T11:06:06 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:36:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VLob8DKDvxddUdZwGP1d | Will global investment in clean energy exceed $1.9 trillion in 2024, per the International Energy Agency? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Data can be found at https://www.iea.org/topics/investment | 2023-12-02T10:55:23 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:37:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZXsF3lopQkmEZ01GgdDY | In 2024, will Israel conduct a military strike against Iran? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
A "military strike" must involve the use of physical violence killing at least 10 people. The attack must ta... | 2023-12-02T10:48:34 | 2024-04-02T13:17:27 | 2024-04-02T13:17:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-iASeZYnz6ZftmSQcgwXT | Will Praggnanandhaa R be ranked in the top 5 on 2700chess.com at any point in 2024? | Praggnanandhaa R, 18 is ranked #13 on the live ratings list at 2700chess.com with a career high rating of 2740. He is currently only 29 rating points behind Ian Nepomniachtchi ranked #5. Given this trajectory, will he be ranked within the top 5 at any point in 2024?
This market resolves YES if Praggnanandhaa R is rank... | 2023-12-02T10:40:30 | 2024-12-17T05:05:07 | 2024-12-17T05:05:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4vhIwilo5XGNN0wg8nUV | In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) is commonly referred to as the "Iran deal." The expiration of... | 2023-12-02T10:38:55 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:45:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0fGvXxZON0hhz4BydPCR | Will democracy around the world continue to decline in 2024, according to Freedom House? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2023/marking-50-years reads "Global freedom declined for the ... | 2023-12-02T09:16:58 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:32:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RU8UCZ2b3rKNIfAsZq3o | Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Both the US and Russia have declared their willingness to engage in arms control talks beyond the expiration... | 2023-12-02T08:48:55 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:44:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YX9vf1ZOt8ek4WC6u7Q4 | Will the US & China agree in 2024 to keep a human in the loop for decisions to use nuclear weapons? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
The Biden administration has explicitly stated its intent to engage China in arms control discussions. But i... | 2023-12-02T08:46:45 | 2024-11-22T14:31:38 | 2024-11-22T14:31:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-8z1xDOpw2uFwoUMP97xo | In 2024, will the IAEA publicly report that Iran has enriched uranium to weapons-grade levels? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution by the International Atomic Energy Agency. As of October 28, 2023, the IAEA reported that Iran ha... | 2023-12-02T08:33:39 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:44:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nzNEEa0XubNA2w3rd8R7 | Will Bitcoin close higher on December 3 than it closed on December 2? | Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $39,466.40
This market is part of the Bitcoin Forecasting December League 2023. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
1 | 3000
2 | 150... | 2023-12-02T07:57:07 | 2023-12-03T15:00:00 | 2023-12-03T17:12:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wCaznnIldjg2G6n47RxX | In 2024, will India or an international organization officially report an outbreak of wheat blast in India? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Historically, wheat blast has not been prevalent in India. However, it has been detected in neighboring Bang... | 2023-12-02T05:38:54 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:43:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5dvoW10TecyiYNrop0Jq | Will international tourism revenue exceed $1.5 trillion in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
International tourism receipts are expected to reach USD $1.4 trillion in 2023, which is already 93% of pre... | 2023-12-02T05:20:51 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:40:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-GZhkkOq9yt0tMPnSrc1Z | Will Indonesia announce another export ban on palm oil or palm oil-based products in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
In April 2022, Indonesia imposed a temporary export ban on palm oil and its derivatives to address domestic ... | 2023-12-02T05:09:52 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:44:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2vn2B4gs0KM4RXZLpMAc | In 2024, will China introduce new export tariffs on rare earth elements? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
China has a history of using export tariffs as a tool to achieve political and economic goals, including in ... | 2023-12-02T05:02:03 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:40:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YzyGN5DZKKJw5NKOMXIT | In 2024, will India lift its ban on the export of non-basmati white rice? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
India is the world's top exporter of rice, accounting for nearly 40% of the global trade. The ban on non-bas... | 2023-12-02T04:56:03 | 2024-10-27T06:19:25 | 2024-10-27T06:19:25 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-HSdbzQdrljM67TpSThmp | In 2024, will the Bank of Japan announce the public rollout of its Central Bank Digital Currency? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Central Bank Digital Currencies might be a huge force in 2024. The Bank of Japan has been conducting experim... | 2023-12-02T04:43:31 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:45:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RhsH4M5yPvCQBDLd4aUB | Will Ethiopia restructure its debt obligations to China in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Ethiopia is heavily indebted, with external debt reaching 33% of GDP in 2022. China, Ethiopia's largest bila... | 2023-12-02T04:40:10 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:42:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z4KBkyWAADbJ9pG27fuA | In 2024, will China publish the urban youth unemployment rate again, after stopping in August 2023? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag a prize? [800M subsidy]
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/the-chinese-communist-party-is-struggling-to-inspire-the-young: "The urb... | 2023-12-02T04:23:34 | 2024-01-17T07:11:22 | 2024-01-17T07:11:22 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-g5OVfJ7Z5V57V4QU909t | 2024: Will Bitcoin reach $140,000? | via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-12-02T01:58:06 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-02T04:50:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hocxUvaSIme5Xv58w7gf | 2024: Will Bitcoin reach $130,000? | [markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-12-02T01:44:36 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:04:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fmmlKsVVs6CRY6BAHxfh | NCAAF: Will the Washington Huskies make the CFP finals? | Are likely to enter the finals ranked #3 or #2, and their opponent would likely be Michigan or (significantly less likely) FSU, both of which are undefeated. | 2023-12-01T22:19:52 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-02T00:23:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-rXnmmUn7DTKgodxkCeNR | Will Twitter die before 2025? | Resolves if regular people can't access Twitter/X as a form of social media anymore before January 1st, 2025. If there's some edge case, I'll resolve this question to what I personally feel is fair.
Decided to make this question after seeing segments of Elon Musk's interview with The New York Times. | 2023-12-01T16:49:05 | 2025-01-01T23:59:00 | 2025-01-02T14:50:09 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xnJFpnJdBKqPl2873zei | 2024: Will Bitcoin reach $120,000? | [markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-12-01T15:56:05 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:03:52 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ajnDOhupx5QuWme13XTo | 2024: Will Bitcoin reach $110,000? | [markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image] | 2023-12-01T15:53:48 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-01T15:03:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9FJGTS8oERZDzZ2Svxmj | Will Kenya restructure its debt obligations with China in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Kenya faces a potential debt repayment crunch in 2024 due to a significant Eurobond redemption. This raises ... | 2023-12-01T15:06:26 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-09T13:42:51 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xJNvivJHWkRPcg5eqdIg | Will Pakistan restructure or default on its international debt obligations in 2024? | This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Pakistan faces a significant debt burden, with external debt payments exceeding $24 billion in FY24. This in... | 2023-12-01T14:50:41 | 2024-11-22T07:27:21 | 2024-11-22T07:27:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
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