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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-BG9PNor3G6D5PndWEMwY
|
Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
This might be a decisive factor in the tax battles happening. From the Economist: "Even as plans for a global minimum tax move forward in 2024, however, another important part of the big international tax deal could fall apart. For years governments have complained that fast-rising sales of digital products and services have allowed big foreign firms to make a mint from their citizens without setting up local outfits they can tax. To tackle this, the agreement in 2021 granted governments a firmer right to tax some of the profits that the world’s largest companies earn from selling stuff in their markets. In exchange countries agreed to drop plans to impose new taxes of their own on tech giants, which would make doing business across borders more complex.
The problem is that most companies affected by these provisions are American—and America’s Congress is unwilling to grant foreigners more rights to tax its firms (even though Joe Biden’s administration was instrumental in arranging the global deal). If this remains the case by the end of 2024, some 30 countries may press ahead with new tariffs. That could prompt angry American politicians to hit back with levies of their own."
|
2023-12-01T14:48:31
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:45:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Z2LTGn0sWGRqoMd0X1nH
|
Will a Chinese company introduce a smartphone using a domestically made chip below 7nm in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Huawei successfully launched the Mate 60 Pro in August 2023, powered by a domestically made 7nm Kirin chip manufactured by SMIC. Can Chinese companies do better given the export controls?
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/semiconductors-will-remain-central-to-americas-tech-rivalry-with-china
|
2023-12-01T14:09:50
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:44:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y3hOusZFpfAW6J2NcGk0
|
Will China announce development of its own extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
The Chinese government has placed considerable political pressure on domestic companies to achieve self-sufficiency in chipmaking. Can they figure out the key chipmaking tech within the next year? They are making progress on a 28nm lithography machine.
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/semiconductors-will-remain-central-to-americas-tech-rivalry-with-china
|
2023-12-01T13:52:05
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:38:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XU1OauZnAjHcLxRkI7jA
|
Will renewable energy sources pass coal power plants as world's largest electricity source in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution based on IEA. Having previously said it would be in 2025, the IEA now thinks it could happen in 2024, “as a result of the accelerated pace of renewable capacity additions” and “the plateauing of electricity generation from coal.”
|
2023-12-01T13:49:03
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:38:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L1HgFERnNm9Hwy5z90Ao
|
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of the Central African Republic?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
The CAR has a long history of political instability and civil conflict. The current government is considered weak and illegitimate by many citizens, creating fertile ground for coup plotters. BMI analysts think South Sudan is the most likely country in Africa to experience a coup, followed by the Central African Republic, according to the Economist.
|
2023-12-01T13:35:22
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T12:00:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dUqQ5kWdeF9a37ajkehU
|
Will there be a successful coup in 2024 that overthrows the government of South Sudan?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
South Sudan has a history of political instability, with multiple attempted coups since its independence in 2011. BMI analysts think South Sudan is the most likely country in Africa to experience a successful coup, followed by the Central African Republic, according to the Economist.
|
2023-12-01T13:34:19
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:44:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ycy4NmKDY13oPDcEkb8C
|
Will the BRICS countries announce an alternative to SWIFT at their summit in October 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are expanding their members, and trying to build an anti-western coalition.
This question is specific to the BRICS group's initiative under Russian chairmanship to develop an alternative payment system, which has been a point of discussion in light of the increasing use of the dollar and SWIFT system in geopolitical contexts. BRICS has long expressed interest in reducing its reliance on the US-dominated SWIFT system, especially after the West's sanctions on Russia highlighted its vulnerability. The August 2023 BRICS summit in Johannesburg saw the bloc commission its finance ministers to explore a BRICS payment system.
|
2023-12-01T13:09:28
|
2024-10-29T13:31:52
|
2024-10-29T13:31:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ss5MsOF2YcDjvCIH13Ku
|
Will the BRICS countries announce their intention to de-dollarize at their October 2024 summit?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are expanding their members, and trying to build an anti-western coalition. Several BRICS countries have already taken steps to reduce their reliance on the dollar. For example, China has been promoting the use of the yuan in international trade, and Russia has been increasing its gold reserves. They would need to create new financial infrastructure and persuade other countries to adopt their alternative reserve currency.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/24/business/saudi-arabia-brics-invitation-intl/index.html
|
2023-12-01T13:05:10
|
2024-10-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:45:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SppdNThxmCjVTkqHNCUk
|
Will the Int'l SeaBed Authority permit The Metals Co. to mine the Clarion Clipperton Zone in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
A patch of the Pacific ocean seabed called the Clarion Clipperton Zone (ccz) holds nodules containing quantities of [manganese, copper, cobalt and nickel] that are roughly equivalent to all terrestrial reserves.
Collecting this metal means going through the International Seabed Authority (ISA), a UN body set up in 1994. But it has been mulling mining rules for three decades. In 2024 one of two things is likely to happen: either the ISA will publish its rules, most likely at a meeting in July, or companies will decide to go ahead without it.
https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/deep-sea-miners-are-ready-to-get-down-to-work
|
2023-12-01T12:54:08
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:43:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sJUQXeiGdeZPIbDYL2Dm
|
Will Iran be among the top 5 global producers of lithium in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
As of 2023, Iran is not a major producer of lithium. In fact, it is not currently listed among the top 15 global producers by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). The top 5 are Australia, Chile, China, Argentina, and Brazil. With Iran announcing the discovery of what may be the world’s second-largest lithium deposit, will it become major player in global lithium production? Resolution will be provided by reporting by USGS. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/demand-for-green-metals-will-redraw-the-global-mining-map
|
2023-12-01T12:49:52
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:45:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fz1XflfAD9Mk19EyWQy4
|
Will a coalition government be formed in South Africa following the 2024 general election?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
"South Africa faces a defining election" writes the Economist. Ever since the first post-apartheid election in 1994, the African National Congress has held a majority of seats in the National Assembly. With the country deteriorating, will they win >50% of the seats needed to form a coalition?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_South_African_general_election
|
2023-12-01T12:25:43
|
2024-07-10T05:15:17
|
2024-07-10T05:15:17
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sueU0ssJQ8xeb9dLLMt4
|
Will India sign a deal with an African country to adopt its Aadhaar digital-identity system in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
India's Aadhaar system is a cornerstone of its digital public infrastructure. India's plans to export this technology to other countries are part of its strategy to enhance its influence and demonstrate its digital capabilities. A bilateral agreement would be a significant step in this direction. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/india-has-big-plans-to-export-its-e-government-technology
|
2023-12-01T12:22:53
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-09T13:43:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ttGKN1OB6P0CAyrsZxAt
|
Will SCOTUS rule in favor of NetChoice in NetChoice v Paxton this term?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Texas House Bill 20 (HB20), enacted on September 9, 2021, prohibits large social media platforms from removing, moderating, or labeling posts based on users' viewpoints, with certain exceptions. It has been challenged in the case "NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton." The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to hear this case jointly with "NetChoice, LLC v. Moody" regarding Florida's law, focusing on whether these state laws comply with the First Amendment. https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/can-america-regulate-big-tech-at-all
A ruling for NetChoice would say that the First Amendment prohibits states from imposing restrictions on social media platforms, and that social media platforms can be treated like public forums.
|
2023-12-01T11:55:57
|
2024-07-19T10:37:30
|
2024-07-19T10:37:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BXVF1hOKlROvEtieD1dQ
|
Will a Democrat win the special election for George Santos' seat?
|
The question will resolve 'yes' iff the Democratic nominee wins the special election for George Santos seat.
|
2023-12-01T11:44:03
|
2024-02-14T04:42:34
|
2024-02-14T04:42:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8IoamQxG1grsUrxJFA5x
|
Will Russia conduct a nuclear test in 2024?
|
This market is part of the Humans v Bots Battle 2024, where AI forecasters will duke it out on the most important world questions of 2024. Can you beat the bots and snag part of the 250,000 Mana (~$2.5k) prize?
Resolution will be provided by a statement by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization. https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2023-11/nuclear-disarmament-monitor
|
2023-12-01T11:35:35
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T03:03:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RhnhEmoTilg8g6PNtj7s
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $100,000?
|
[markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-12-01T10:53:16
|
2024-12-05T00:49:10
|
2024-12-05T00:49:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rQWZAPsQch24iEmEhEpL
|
Will the Republicans win a trifecta in 2024 (controlling House, Senate and President)?
|
The 2024 election will put the control of the US government up for grabs. There's a good chance the Republicans will win each of the three federal electoral institutions — the House, Senate and President. How likely is that?
|
2023-12-01T10:36:48
|
2024-11-04T20:59:00
|
2024-11-16T12:50:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-R7wtoRufCg0w08W9Uzsu
|
Will 2024 spaceflight launch success rate be superior to 2023’s rate ? (95,07%)
|
2021 : 146 launch / 10 failures (93,15%)
2022 : 186 launch / 7 failures (96,24%)
2023 : 223 launch / 11 failures (95,07%)
Source of data : Wikipedia ‘Spaceflight of year (Only major failure counted as failure, partial failure counted as success of the launch)
|
2023-12-01T02:42:10
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T03:28:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pcQIuSNS1yRRNTJKWRVD
|
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be out of office as PM by 3/31/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-01T02:39:25
|
2024-03-31T20:59:00
|
2024-04-01T00:53:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xQlpJj9SS0bUsDgoIJvY
|
Will there be a new ceasefire between Israel and Hamas before the end of 2023?
|
On December 1, the ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was broken and fighting in Gaza resumed. Will there be a new ceasefire brokered before the end of 2023?
|
2023-12-01T01:47:06
|
2024-01-01T14:59:00
|
2024-01-01T17:12:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AlwpQbS8v3NtKCJJM3w8
|
Will North Korea launch a missile through Japanese airspace by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-12-01T01:45:47
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T08:45:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VTbRj1cPGmyva9uSFpdm
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $90,000?
|
[markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-11-30T18:52:53
|
2024-11-13T11:53:40
|
2024-11-13T11:53:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VPIW55HgbSbjAhqaqygk
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $80,000?
|
[markets]via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-11-30T18:52:28
|
2024-11-11T04:32:31
|
2024-11-11T04:32:31
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-MYHXMTccYdDFcPP2RJUg
|
Will any Forbes 30 under 30 be arrested in December of 2023?
|
Any credible proof that someone from any year of the US Forbes 30 under 30 is arrested (conviction not required) in December of 2023 will resolve this to YES.
Note that there are about > 7800 30 under 30. The probability of one of them being arrested is 1 - ((1 - P)^7800), where P is the probability of one of them being arrested in December. Even with P being 5000 to 1 odds, that is near certainty.
|
2023-11-30T15:13:54
|
2024-01-07T23:59:00
|
2024-01-25T14:25:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yvKK7V16ypgxXWpSgUBo
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $70,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-11-30T10:26:16
|
2024-03-11T17:37:14
|
2024-03-11T17:37:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DWUpCuCaMrlmQRTzUEpA
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $60,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-11-30T10:25:16
|
2024-02-28T09:16:01
|
2024-02-28T09:16:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Murzcja7BlHHyXj1KQee
|
2024: Will Bitcoin reach $50,000?
|
via https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin
[image]
|
2023-11-30T10:16:41
|
2024-02-12T16:40:36
|
2024-02-12T16:40:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WKTLPMssBgPUzzmFsaRP
|
Will Yuki Tsunoda score higher than Daniel Ricciardo in the 2024 Formula 1 Driver World Championship?
|
Resolves YES if Tsunoda outscores Ricciardo in the 2024 Formula 1 DWC, according to official F1 statements.
I will cancel the market if, at any time before the F1 2024 season starts (29th of February), any of the drivers leave team. If one or both of the drivers leave the team mid-season, then the market resolves based on the DWC standings from the latest race.
|
2023-11-30T06:29:29
|
2024-12-09T14:59:00
|
2024-12-26T22:24:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nyGpYHA9BoaWu3qvEWwF
|
Will Bitcoin be above $40,000 USD on Jan 1st, 2024
|
https://data.chain.link/ethereum/mainnet/crypto-usd/btc-usd
|
2023-11-29T20:31:55
|
2024-01-01T07:59:00
|
2024-01-01T08:29:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-McjBXUgfkj0wt5U0hTkt
|
Will Ilya Sutskever join xAI (Grok) before the end of 2024?
|
Will Ilya join xAI before 2024? To resolve YES he doesnt need to specifically say hes working on Grok.
|
2023-11-29T19:48:38
|
2025-01-01T18:38:14
|
2025-01-01T18:38:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NJTEH1kACj3q8inVdsUu
|
Will Mark Cuban launch an United States Presidential campaign during the first financial quarter of 2024?
|
He's sold on some assets (Mavericks most notably). He's leaving Shark Tank.
Speculation is he is going to run for US President - if so, when will he announce?
|
2023-11-29T14:35:45
|
2024-04-04T23:59:00
|
2024-04-05T06:26:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2rlU9drzhNVnxDwdnwIm
|
Will Baldur's Gate 3 still be one of the top 10 most active games on Steam on June 1st 2024?
|
Info: https://steamcharts.com/
Will use Top Games by Current Players (Peak Players) on that day.
|
2023-11-29T12:50:57
|
2024-05-31T17:28:35
|
2024-05-31T17:28:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T8Wm3OIa6NozrwgCdzuO
|
Will Musk's Optimus robot be able to thread a needle by 2024-11-09?
|
On the Lex Fridman podcast with Elon musk (episode 200), around 2h22m Elon says that Optimus will be able to pick up a needle and a thread and thread the needle just by looking and he says it's "maybe a year" away.
This will resolve YES if Optimus (or a later version of the Optimus robot) is able to consistently thread a needle just by looking at the thread and the needle.
It will resolve NO if there is no proof of this being possible by that date.
[Lex Fridman Podcast] #400 – Elon Musk: War, AI, Aliens, Politics, Physics, Video Games, and Humanity #lexFridmanPodcast
https://podcastaddict.com/lex-fridman-podcast/episode/166602187 via @PodcastAddict
|
2023-11-29T09:38:09
|
2024-11-09T13:59:00
|
2024-11-10T12:02:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kKwcLchDwTRRbWPyKhpI
|
Will Reddit IPO in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Reddit completes its initial public offering and the shares are freely tradable in the calendar year of 2024.
Resolves NO otherwise.
|
2023-11-29T08:56:59
|
2024-03-21T15:46:37
|
2024-03-21T15:46:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uRNTo6dPO8gaaf1BgqWY
|
Will Mark Cuban become an official US President candidate for the 2024 election?
|
Yes = All paperwork filled
No = No paperwork filled
|
2023-11-29T07:55:59
|
2024-03-13T04:49:25
|
2024-03-13T04:49:25
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8s0ZAt5AsKXYRRuH4vWY
|
Will there be confirmation by end of December that Khloé Kardashian and Tristan Thompson are back together?
|
Khloe Kardashian fans think she is back with ex Tristan Thompson due to giveaway clue - The Mirror US
This question resolves to "YES" if a new or rekindled relationship between Khloé and Tristan is reported in celebrity news websites or is confirmed by the involved parties by the end of December 2023.
more:
Tristan Thompson Would 'Love' to 'Spend the Rest of My Life' with Khloé Kardashian (people.com)
Khloé Kardashian and Tristan Thompson's Relationship Timeline (elle.com)
|
2023-11-29T04:58:14
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T23:49:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Uhdf3zGtLOgzlY01hRvc
|
Will Sweden officially join NATO before the end of Q2 2024?
|
This will be resolved as a yes if Sweden completes "7. Upon depositing their instruments of accession with the US State Department, invitees formally become NATO members" before the end of the last day of the second quarter of 2024.
Source and more information: https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49212.htm
|
2023-11-29T01:36:22
|
2024-03-08T12:03:08
|
2024-03-08T12:03:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RN3z2EGgQT0CFa5bKGxX
|
Will Finland keep it's border with Russia completely closed on 31 December 2023?
|
No official border crossings open.
|
2023-11-28T22:58:23
|
2024-01-01T01:10:57
|
2024-01-01T01:10:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7rtR5dLaKSdhYLYldp4r
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their MNF NFL Game against the New York Giants on Dec11?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:21:28
|
2023-12-11T21:00:00
|
2023-12-12T05:50:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZQcIgAIETzJhUEt2jU5k
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Tennessee Titans win their MNF NFL Game against the Miami Dolphins on Dec11?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:20:29
|
2023-12-11T20:59:00
|
2023-12-12T05:51:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KdgkmFDqy2HkhYyIHZMF
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Philadelphia Eagles on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:18:49
|
2023-12-10T20:30:44
|
2023-12-10T20:30:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5fexqCp6JC75UOzvSFT0
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Denver Broncos win their NFL Game against the Los Angeles Chargers on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 4:30 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:17:48
|
2023-12-10T16:30:00
|
2023-12-10T18:04:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oebq8XePj2qnNdzVAKxM
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Buffalo Bills win their NFL Game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 4:30 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:16:19
|
2023-12-10T16:30:00
|
2023-12-10T18:03:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mhLOqO9TrFnghlGD8X2F
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the San Francisco 49ers win their NFL Game against the Seattle Seahawks on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 4:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T13:15:02
|
2023-12-10T16:00:00
|
2023-12-10T18:04:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fe31AwJEB18AFuOjEFHZ
|
Will Sam Altman tweet again in November 2023?
|
Only posts after market creation count
Quote and reply posts count, re-posts don't cont
Resolves according to Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)
|
2023-11-28T12:47:44
|
2023-11-29T20:49:39
|
2023-11-29T20:49:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1A8AuQaL4KiUaTGagaKQ
|
Will Leinier Dominguez play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
|
This resolves positively if Dominguez is able to qualify and play in the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024
If Dominguez qualifies for but declines to partipate in the tournament, it will resolve negatively.
If Dominguez is selected by FIDE as a replacement in the tournament, without qualifying directly, this will still resolve positively.
This market closes at the start of the candidates tournament. If Dominguez, somehow, participates in the tournament and is paired in the first round, but never manages to play a match due to sickness, protest, or other factors, it will resolve negatively. This market will resolve negatively after the first round of the tournament occuring without Dominguez being a listed player, or positively upon Dominguez playing a match in the tournament.
|
2023-11-28T12:20:18
|
2024-04-02T21:59:00
|
2024-04-04T11:48:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UFyGMIGeJ1q2FxpjfH4t
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Houston Texans win their NFL Game against the New York Jets on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:47:29
|
2023-12-10T13:00:48
|
2023-12-10T13:00:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1GuiTs2xQXmgCOdtXSWz
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the New Orleans Saints win their NFL Game against the Carolina Panthers on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:46:26
|
2023-12-10T13:00:24
|
2023-12-10T13:00:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FKBnw4ukUbkhaPHVJ3hD
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Cleveland Browns win their NFL Game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:45:41
|
2023-12-10T13:01:00
|
2023-12-10T13:57:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GtWKgRAt0WYk0Y6azLfO
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Indianapolis Colts win their NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Dec 10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:44:30
|
2023-12-10T12:58:32
|
2023-12-10T12:58:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TTep0Nac44jHAPppjAEd
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 - Will the Chicago Bears win their NFL Game against the Detroit Lions on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:43:22
|
2023-12-10T12:59:00
|
2023-12-10T13:07:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-c1Gqk7sbqxSvGmGsCL5m
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win their NFL Game against the Atlanta Falcons on Dec10?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 1:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:41:30
|
2023-12-10T12:59:00
|
2023-12-10T13:05:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EQ4ZFvzwu23hkcgGzHYB
|
Will Twilio sell any of its data and applications businesses before the end of 2024?
|
There was a report today that an activist investor, Anson, has taken a position with the hopes of forcing this outcome.
Resolves YES if the entire company is sold.
I am not going to bet on the market.
This market will resolve on an announcement that an acquisition has been agreed by both parties - press release from either the acquirer or acquiree, won’t wait until the transaction is finalized. A press release about a hostile takeover offer or offer where Twilio shareholders haven't agreed won't be enough to resolve the market.
|
2023-11-28T10:41:22
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T07:27:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QEb5JFxVc72MkrwCR60V
|
NFL🏈: Week 14 -- Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win their TNF Game against New England Patriots on 12/07?
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. This market will close at 9:00 PM Pacific Time irrespective of when the game ends.
|
2023-11-28T10:40:14
|
2023-12-07T20:18:42
|
2023-12-07T20:18:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JqzCppRE9E1DFqNafmeZ
|
Will "Wonka" (2023) gross >$30M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Wonka" (2023) grosses more than $30,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on BoxOfficeMojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl2942927617/ will be used to resolve this market.
Other details:
Typically the "Domestic Opening" on BoxOfficeMojo includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews—regardless, I will use whatever number is listed.
For a concrete example of the number I will cite, the "Domestic Opening" listed for "Oppenheimer" is $82,455,420.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized, which may be before the listed date. If BoxOfficeMojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspects of the resolution criteria are unclear, please ask.
[image]
|
2023-11-28T09:15:35
|
2023-12-18T15:14:36
|
2023-12-18T15:14:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eHy3PK5SXxoX1oX4Be80
|
Magnus Carlsen has the highest ELO in the world in mid 2024?
|
based on this list https://ratings.fide.com/
As of end of June 30 2024
|
2023-11-28T09:10:22
|
2024-06-30T18:00:00
|
2024-07-17T07:55:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TDBoeeOV0XkFi7fil08l
|
Will Trump lose but not concede the next presidential election, and hold a rally in Washington DC on January 6 2025?
|
Will Donald Trump appear to have failed to secure sufficient electoral college votes to win the next election and subsequently mount a stage and use a public address system to address a crowd of at least 100 people within 1km of the National Mall in Washington DC on the same day that the Electoral College votes are counted and ratified by Congress (expected to be January 6 2025) ? Betting closes on January 5th 2025 (or sooner if ratification is moved forward)
|
2023-11-28T09:09:00
|
2024-11-06T22:55:58
|
2024-11-06T22:55:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iQGWYdIMbZTS02Fqc5kv
|
Will SF rents increase in 2024?
|
Same resolution criteria as here: https://manifold.markets/RexSalisbury/will-san-franciscos-rents-increase?r=QWxleFNoYWRsZXk
|
2023-11-28T06:41:57
|
2025-01-01T22:59:00
|
2025-01-02T15:23:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DflFd1PJq3CXfYFWP8ZU
|
[December Start] Will Bitcoin close higher on December 1 than it closed on November 30?
|
Question closes an hour before 12 UTC.
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $37,715.40
This market is part of the Bitcoin Forecasting December League 2023. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank-Award
1 | 3000
2 | 1500
3 | 500
4 | 300
5 | 200
6 | 150
7 | 125
8 | 100
9 | 75
10 | 50
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview]
|
2023-11-28T06:37:58
|
2023-12-01T15:00:00
|
2023-12-01T17:09:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-x8bWEjq4fWiDtz5k8Qng
|
FSD v12 will be available to all customers that have purchased/subscribed to the US FSD program by the end of 2023.
|
This resolves to "YES" if FSD v12 can be downloaded by any customer that subscribes or buys into the FSD program prior to midnight on Dec 31 2023.
|
2023-11-28T06:25:15
|
2023-12-28T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T06:02:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-O9UOSIcEygHiZJ9RqgJm
|
Will Joe Biden win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2024?
|
I suspect the prize will be announced on Oct 4, 2024. I'll adjust the closing when the date is announced.
|
2023-11-28T06:16:55
|
2024-10-03T20:59:00
|
2024-10-14T18:46:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XSO0GfK5otngJnG7Ff04
|
Will the US Federal Reserve lower interest rates before 5/15/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-28T05:33:33
|
2024-05-02T03:46:13
|
2024-05-02T03:46:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gFB9fWvUYkm3qwBi1xZh
|
Will the US Federal Reserve lower interest rates by 4/1/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-28T05:30:41
|
2024-04-01T19:07:16
|
2024-04-01T19:07:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-akgmQmBf6W7JrK8JdLPw
|
Will at least $1M in XTX Markets AI-MO "Progress Prize(s)" be awarded by end of the 65th IMO in July 2024?
|
This market resolves to "YES" if the XTX Markets AI-MO Advisory Committee acknowledges the achievement of progress milestone(s) that sum to at least $1M in AI-MO prizes by the close of the 65th IMO in Bath England on Sunday July 21, 2024.
An acknowledgment will satisfy "YES" condition if it is made by a representative of XTX Markets or the AI-MO Advisory Committee either in person at the IMO, or by press release or other public statement ahead of or during the IMO. The current draft agenda for the IMO shows the Closing Ceremony from 15:00-17:00 GMT on July 21st. If the IMO agenda is extended or changed, then trading will still close on July 21st, but market resolution will be delayed until after the IMO ends.
https://aimoprize.com/
XTX Markets is launching a new $10mn challenge fund, the Artificial Intelligence Mathematical Olympiad Prize (AI-MO Prize). The fund intends to spur the development of AI models that can reason mathematically, leading to the creation of a publicly-shared AI model capable of winning a gold medal in the International Mathematical Olympiad (IMO).
The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO.
There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.
The prizes will be designed by an AI-MO Advisory Committee, including mathematicians, deep learning experts and experienced Olympiad problem-setters.
The first AI-MO approved competitions will open to participants in early 2024. There will be a presentation of progress at the 65th IMO, which will be held in Bath, England in July 2024.
|
2023-11-28T05:17:40
|
2024-07-21T21:59:00
|
2024-07-29T05:38:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LOdMR4HFQYPqzMHR5JpP
|
Will Tesla Vehicle deliveries Q4 2023 exceed 500,000?
|
Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends
Last five quarters:
Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 343820
Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 405278
Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 422875
Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 466140
Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 435059
The equivalent press release for Q4 2023 will be used but if not available, I may wait for Q4 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included.
Background
Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is
"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."
Having produced 1350996 in the first three quarters 1.8m requires production of 449k.
However, at 2022 Q4 earnings there were some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So one line of reasoning queried whether the 1.8 million figure was a well sandbagged number or whether demand causing production to be throttled back?
Above may have failed to account for other explanations: Q2 Earning call suggested there would be production shutdowns but it isn't clear to what extent these were for upgrading production speed compared to other things like retool for Highland upgrade. While there were shutdowns, did this fully account for lower production or were there also speed reduction?
|
2023-11-28T04:21:39
|
2024-01-02T05:59:31
|
2024-01-02T05:59:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0UpIVitEehovOo1dSvr1
|
Will Biden visit China in 2024?
|
China=PRC 'mainland'
|
2023-11-28T02:21:51
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-01T13:18:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y4e8dnBSLMxPpNfCK03R
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in December 2023?
|
Counting from the open on 12/1/2023 (4.559,43), will the S&P 500 close at a higher level on 12/29/2023?
S&P 500: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
|
2023-11-28T00:10:26
|
2023-12-29T14:59:00
|
2023-12-30T15:09:00
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Oh0J33WywY1ZVvGcpNhW
|
Will an AI win the $5 million AI Math Olympiad Prize before August 2024?
|
Resolves the same way as this market
https://polymarket.com/event/will-an-ai-win-the-5-million-ai-math-olympiad-prize-before-august
|
2023-11-27T18:42:19
|
2024-08-03T08:54:44
|
2024-08-03T08:54:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-v7g8ZqPMAVicZJ7IbmWJ
|
Will a Democrat win the 2024 Senate election in Michigan?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-27T16:29:21
|
2024-11-06T20:40:45
|
2024-11-06T20:40:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Av8JoxcSPz9HSsdHoeNX
|
Will there be Government shutdown (partial or total) in Q1 of 2024?
|
Congress passed a laddered CR in November of 2023. This has 2 dates -- on the first date funding for some government agencies ends and on the 2nd date -- the funding for the rest ends.
This will resolve to yes -- even if any one government agency -- shuts down in Q1 of 2024 because Congress fails to pass legislation to continue funding (either in form of CR or a full legislative bill for the entire Fiscal year).
End of Q1 2024 is defined as Midnight of 31st March 2023
|
2023-11-27T13:54:46
|
2024-03-22T22:29:49
|
2024-03-24T23:02:34
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oyUBeBMoA7Kz4OoRszgv
|
NFL🏈: Week 13 - Will the Kansas City Chiefs win their NFL game against the Green Bay Packers on 12/3? SNF
|
Resolved based on Game Day Score. Trading will close at 8:00 pm PACIFIC on Game Day
|
2023-11-27T12:51:24
|
2023-12-03T19:59:00
|
2023-12-03T21:18:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hRChCeJYaRfc0NVdiCg7
|
Will the US Congress pass new aid to Israel by December 31st?
|
Both chambers, Senate and House, must pass the exact same bill (including the exact same modifications) by Dec 31st.
Biden need not sign it. Only has to pass both chambers.
|
2023-11-27T12:40:08
|
2023-12-20T16:51:19
|
2023-12-20T16:51:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QvRsgVp78gFPKzXUH2wH
|
At the Sean Hannity moderated, Newsom-DeSantis debate on November 30th, will DeSantis say "woke" more than 4.5 times?
|
On November 30th, Gavin Newsom and Ron/Rob DeSantis will debate on FOX. Will the Governor of Florida say "woke" more than 4.5 times? Will resolve YES at 5, NO at 4 or under.
He will most likely use it in the context of a "woke agenda" or "woke ideology" or "go woke, go broke" but any version of use of "woke" works, such as "I woke up next to my wife Casey who thinks less of me now that my poll numbers are in the toilet, and I had to stoop to doing this debate to get attention."
|
2023-11-27T12:34:28
|
2023-11-30T19:44:05
|
2023-11-30T19:44:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SLUYocqttj7gkfVRizD2
|
Will Gaza ceasefire end before 12/3/23 (EST)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-27T12:32:02
|
2023-12-01T02:28:43
|
2023-12-01T02:28:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iu6Z5wM434dvOBgCGbd7
|
Will Destiny debate Ben Shapiro in January 2024?
|
Resolves to Yes if Destiny debates Ben Shapiro on any topic on any platform (excluding text-based debates) between 1/1/2024 and 1/31/2024.
Resolves to No if no debate happens within the timeframe.
EDIT: The market will be resolved when the debate releases to ensure that Destiny isn't lying about when the debate happened.
|
2023-11-27T11:57:15
|
2024-01-23T10:07:04
|
2024-01-23T10:07:04
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8IEANU0CahPlRyemGNTR
|
Will George Santos leave Congress this week?
|
Resolves YES if he leaves the U.S. Congress before the end of Saturday, whether through expulsion, resignation, death, or some other means.
|
2023-11-27T11:51:01
|
2023-12-01T08:15:40
|
2023-12-01T08:15:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7SuiWUWyJXLdjWjqHEuG
|
Will Representative George Santos still be a member of the House of Representatives at the start of December 4, 2023?
|
Reports say he could be expelled as soon as this week. Will he resign? Will he be given the boot? Or will he still be there a week from now?
Edited for clarity on resolution time
|
2023-11-27T09:09:57
|
2023-12-01T08:04:22
|
2023-12-01T08:04:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mj5hduFRRFl0hY3xsX42
|
Will the “The Daily” podcast have a week of podcasts who’s titles do not contain the word “Gaza” in December?
|
This is inclusive of everything published in The Daily’s feed on Spotify. This normally includes 5 podcasts per week; Monday to Friday, plus a weekend publication. Market will resolve to “Yes” if on any given week the feed has no publications who’s titles contain the word “Gaza”.
|
2023-11-27T08:59:10
|
2023-12-10T04:12:14
|
2023-12-10T04:12:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FhTwCezsxUNYtLqeojIP
|
Will Mr Beast go to space in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-27T05:25:01
|
2025-01-01T06:56:35
|
2025-01-01T06:56:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OuFTNG28BM6GrwuhO53n
|
Will Ron DeSantis suspend his Presidential Campaign during the year 2023?
|
Formal announcement of a campaign suspension during 2023 resolves question YES.
Otherwise, NO.
|
2023-11-27T05:02:49
|
2024-01-01T07:04:26
|
2024-01-01T07:04:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-nOiUjcHna4nrqgLmwhdz
|
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 160 seats at the next UK general election?
|
Created due to other markets being far more bearish for the Tories than I expected!
Alternatively
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-4f8a1f93b653)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-c064235d18b7)
|
2023-11-27T03:45:00
|
2024-07-04T22:51:49
|
2024-07-04T22:51:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FRrBtXox5eWpxFvMhj5G
|
Will there be another Pandemic outbreak declared before 2024 US Elections?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-26T22:58:55
|
2024-11-05T23:59:00
|
2024-11-20T10:39:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KcL5nzwNJM2OctopAdq1
|
If the New England Patriots have a top ten pick, will Bill Belichick lose his job?
|
Resolves NA if the Patriots do not finish in the bottom ten of the league.
Resolves YES if Belichick is not the head coach of the Patriots at the NFL Combine.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Resolves YES whether he is fired, retires, quits or leaves through mutual agreement (or any other conceivable variation, but resolves NA if he dies (still YES if he leaves due to medical circumstances))
Will resolve YES early if Belichick leaves the position.
|
2023-11-26T21:50:52
|
2024-01-11T09:39:09
|
2024-01-11T09:39:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uztIw7962lBPwKa33E3Q
|
Will China and the Philippines have a conflict in the South China Sea that results in at least one death before 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-26T21:21:32
|
2025-01-01T21:36:20
|
2025-01-01T21:36:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8MwF5OZZRTWth9GLOtes
|
Will SpaceX launch a nine-engine Starship variant in 2024?
|
Musk has suggested SpaceX will increase the number of engines on Starship from six to nine, as well as increasing the length of Starship to hold the requisite additional propellant. Such a vehicle would have considerably more thrust.
Recently Musk tweeted a picture of four existing Starships, calling them "the last of V1", with speculation being that "V2" might be such a nine-engine variant.
Will a nine-engine Starship variant launch in 2024?
"Launch" means lift-off from the pad, however slightly, either under the thrust of its own engines, or carried by a first-stage booster. Thus, launches of all kinds count: hops, suborbital, orbital, as long as Starship gets off the ground using rocket engines (its own or the booster's). Launches do not have to be successful, they just have to be launches.
The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the launch site (most likely: Boca Chica, Texas)
[tweet]
|
2023-11-26T21:15:50
|
2025-01-02T04:59:00
|
2025-01-02T12:32:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yq3VzZIaGtf71Youbw2c
|
Will the Houthi Rebels successfully seize another cargo ship in an act of piracy before the end of 2024?
|
This market will resolve yes if the Houthi Rebels retain control over the cargo ship, tanker, or other large ship long enough to dock it in a place of their choosing. If they board the ship and then lose control before it docks that event will not count.
|
2023-11-26T20:35:44
|
2025-01-01T11:07:21
|
2025-01-01T11:07:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dkVFUBzmuxIdkmYXNEFq
|
Will destiny talk to lav on stream in 2024
|
Will destiny have a 1 on 1 convo with lav on his stream before the end of 2024.
|
2023-11-26T18:13:54
|
2024-12-31T05:29:00
|
2024-12-31T18:33:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dY3QULrTXIQJQSA41tVS
|
Will Joe Biden complete a second term as President?
|
This resolves YES if both are true:
A) Biden is re-elected President
B) Biden completes his second term
|
2023-11-26T17:57:16
|
2024-07-22T22:42:52
|
2024-07-22T22:42:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aaKt6vVFZIfrK2aLVHYm
|
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 6.5 in IMDB at the end of 2024?
|
Closes by the end of 2024 at Yes if Napoleon is rated 6.5 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/
Related:
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-801438346ff1
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-0f01d3d427fc
|
2023-11-26T12:35:46
|
2024-12-31T18:59:00
|
2025-01-02T07:37:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uh1Hz5g58IV9EeRRNEkD
|
Will some DPO variant more or less replace RLHF by June 2024?
|
Nora Belrose says: I predict with 60% confidence that some DPO variant will more or less replace RLHF within 6 months. Outside of huge labs that can afford RLHF’s implementation complexity and instability it’s more like 80% chance.
Given the major labs probably won't talk, we will consider the non-huge lab scenario.
This resolves to YES if, excluding DM/OAI/Anthropic, DPO is a more popular technique in practice than RLHF at time of resolution.
I expect the answer to be obvious one way or another, if not I will attempt to settle via Twitter poll, if that isn't definitive I will ask experts and use best judgment.
https://twitter.com/norabelrose/status/1728456414535016536
|
2023-11-26T09:32:09
|
2024-06-01T20:59:00
|
2024-06-07T04:18:16
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1IdrcOtNDwcMvhdevdFm
|
Will Elon Musk still be the CEO of Tesla at the end of 2024?
|
If for any reason Elon Musk is not the CEO of Tesla by the 31st of December 2024 11:59 PM, this will resolve to “No”. Otherwise it will resolve to “Yes”.
|
2023-11-26T07:04:59
|
2025-01-01T05:59:00
|
2025-01-16T08:44:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oOAcDzIm8pyqWNsf04qB
|
Will a 3rd starship fly in 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-26T04:49:46
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T15:24:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kdtrrpKEO3k0d0hFffIl
|
Did an openAI model crack AES-192 encryption?
|
As described here:
https://youtu.be/3d0kk88IE8c?si=NCqJixJU8vIwR6dU
Resolves yes if we have evidence they did this before 26th November 2023. If no evidence by end 2024 resolves no.
|
2023-11-26T00:44:52
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:37:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UgYGmhUUSKI2UDrhEMuQ
|
Will Kilauea erupt in December 2023?
|
Terms
"Kilauea" is the youngest volcano on the Island of Hawai'i. Eruptions of other Hawaiian volcanoes don't count.
"In" is defined using UTC-10 (the Hawaii–Aleutian Time Zone).
Market is intended to be settled within 48 hours of the end of the month or as soon as I'm convinced that an eruption has occurred.
"Erupt" shall primarily be determined by the USGS Kilauea page.
Backup data sources will strongly prefer official announcements from the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
Duration, location, and size of an eruption are irrelevant. Any declared eruption of Kilauea in the time period will treated as a "Yes" answer.
Unlikely, but possible, ambiguities
When an eruption occurred: most eruptions of Kilauea can be dated to within a few seconds thanks to multiple cameras operated by HVO. For eruptions in unexpected locations, imagery from geostationary satellites can usually date an eruption to within a few minutes (example from nearby Mauna Loa in 2022). If an eruption occurs near the end of the month (or the beginning of next month), I'll do my best to determine its precise start time. If I think there's a 1% or higher chance that it began in this market's month, I'll resolve as "Yes".
Type of eruption: Kilauea continuously produces >100 tonnes/day of SO2 outgassing, but the HVO does not normally call this an eruption. If the volume increases, they may declare that an eruption, in which case this market will settle "Yes". Otherwise, this market will not count gas release by itself as an eruption.
Other ambiguities: for other ambiguities, I will post a detailed comment and provide at least 24 hours for debate before settling the market to the best of my ability. I will strongly prefer settling as "Yes" or "No".
Disclosure: I will bet in this market, but I will not take any new positions in the final day of the market.
|
2023-11-25T18:44:54
|
2024-01-01T08:48:47
|
2024-01-01T08:48:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6yH8kRr0YiLC2fEstCgq
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the Chicago Bears in their Week 12 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Vikings win
No - Bears win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-25T18:02:44
|
2023-11-27T20:07:10
|
2023-11-27T20:07:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9olS8qcU7qT7D6GOBYOh
|
Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Baltimore Ravens in their Week 12 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Chargers win
No - Ravens win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-25T18:01:55
|
2023-11-26T20:27:39
|
2023-11-26T20:28:01
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HAWn3aRKeAPFP001265j
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles beat the Buffalo Bills in their Week 12 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Eagles win
No - Bills win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-25T18:01:09
|
2023-11-26T17:14:53
|
2023-11-26T17:15:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VqS78e8aeHvYu1yHc6ET
|
Will Bitcoin hit all time high in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-25T15:25:37
|
2024-03-14T06:29:44
|
2024-03-14T06:29:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-AqXCMk3Fp0Hl2Bltl6eY
|
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire be released by 2025?
|
Resolves YES if the sixth novel in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by 2025.
|
2023-11-25T10:37:01
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-02T21:56:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LMUZzLWNJeGWqcrBI6tW
|
Odds of Biden winning is above 50% at the end of 2023
|
Settles to YES if the probability of Biden winning is >=50% on Dec 31 @ 11:59pm EST. Probability derived from this market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres)Edit: Will use the API derived prob as of 11:59:00p EST 12/31.
|
2023-11-25T08:42:44
|
2023-12-31T21:59:00
|
2023-12-31T22:52:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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