id
stringlengths 8
25
| question
stringlengths 13
209
| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
20
| close_date
stringlengths 19
27
| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-LwN3TovhOMecsGCmyRwt
|
Will Javier Milei abolish the Central Bank of Argentina by 2024-07-01?
|
He seems quite intent on it:
https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentinas-milei-says-shutting-central-bank-non-negotiable-2023-11-24/
[markets]
|
2023-11-25T08:15:07
|
2024-07-02T22:34:59
|
2024-07-02T22:34:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qwJKpi6EupDKn3KCsy5V
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF : Will the Oregon Ducks beat the Washington Huskies in the Pac12 Championship Game?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-25T06:00:16
|
2023-12-01T20:59:00
|
2023-12-02T07:34:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ERtevVbebt1wtlX6cUny
|
Will there be a SpaceX Starship launch in the first quarter of 2024?
|
For the purposes of this question a lunch is defined as both the Booster and the Starship making it to an altitude of at least 1,000 m.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-81f8b0bce083)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-193f75e1a3b4)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-there-be-a-spacex-starship-lau-4e4ecf6fce6e)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le)
(https://manifold.markets/embed/DaveTrash/will-starship-launch-to-orbit-at-le-43ad6d8ef596)
|
2023-11-25T04:39:56
|
2024-03-14T06:26:24
|
2024-03-14T06:26:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Aja8XJC4gcCo8aP8F7Ct
|
Will Hamas fire another rocket at Israel during the ceasefire?
|
Any firing during the time when the ceasefire is officially in effect counts. The rocket that was fired 15 minutes after the ceasefire began doesn't count, that's the first one.
|
2023-11-24T19:36:11
|
2023-11-30T20:13:45
|
2023-11-30T21:40:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-J7jQ6hcJypMDeziHa7sE
|
Will Josh Giddey be suspended by the Thunder or the NBA?
|
Resolves true if the League Commissioner or OKC suspend Giddey for any number of games or indefinitely.
|
2023-11-24T17:50:09
|
2023-12-09T20:59:00
|
2023-12-12T13:48:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OeEUdDBmvr7MPvZ2YLx0
|
Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 2025?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba#Proposed_consultative_referendum
Related markets:
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-a07985ac480e
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-56e9c36cd5b4
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-d71435ac097f
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-71c545143d71 (this market)
@/jks/will-venezuela-exercise-de-facto-ru
|
2023-11-24T15:00:50
|
2025-01-01T14:00:00
|
2025-01-01T15:08:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tjWrMYDrG9wMyxrj23Tw
|
Will Venezuela exercise de facto rule over any portion of Guyanese territory before 2024?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba#Proposed_consultative_referendum
Related markets:
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any (this market)
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-a07985ac480e
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-56e9c36cd5b4
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-d71435ac097f
@/jks/will-venezuela-attempt-to-annex-any-71c545143d71
|
2023-11-24T14:58:44
|
2024-01-01T14:00:00
|
2024-01-01T14:24:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TX0uYkQYF3YsrRJTipWq
|
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the AFC championship for the 2023-2024 season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-24T12:00:33
|
2024-01-28T15:16:21
|
2024-01-28T15:16:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-vtRwotiWrFgVKho1qIVe
|
Will "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) gross >$42M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) grosses more than $42,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3003745793/ will be used to resolve this market.
For reference, the original Aquaman opened to $67.87M in 2018.
Other details:
Typically the "domestic opening" includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews. Regardless, I will use the number cited by Box Office Mojo.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Office Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask.
|
2023-11-24T10:44:58
|
2023-12-26T15:20:20
|
2023-12-26T15:20:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WQ6zukx8CRol0ayLu1pb
|
Will the left/right culture war come for AI before the end of 2024?
|
This market resolves YES, if, in my sole opinion, it seems abundantly clear that support for "AI" (an umbrella term for all the technologies, and, frankly marketing/branding associated with the term), becomes politically polarized along left/right lines.
It doesn't matter which side becomes "pro" AI or "anti" AI, just that each one picks a side and starts visibly yelling at the other, and that one's allegiance to left/right politics starts to drive people's opinions about whether they are pro or anti AI, and vice versa.
This is especially the case if you express an opinion about AI and people immediately assume you must belong to either the left/right based solely on that statement.
This market is a continuation of the original market by @LarsDoucet - @/LarsDoucet/will-the-leftright-culture-war-come which is currently on track to resolve to NO.
|
2023-11-24T10:44:06
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-18T10:31:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eOVIKeZUJAd0WuVpp25r
|
Will "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) gross >$34M on its opening weekend?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom" (2023) grosses more than $34,000,000 during its domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3003745793/ will be used to resolve this market.
For reference, the original Aquaman opened to $67.87M in 2018.
Other details:
Typically the "domestic opening" includes all of North America, as well as Thursday previews. Regardless, I will use the number cited by Box Office Mojo.
The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Office Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source.
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one).
If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask.
|
2023-11-24T10:35:08
|
2023-12-26T15:21:22
|
2023-12-26T15:21:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1LZVL5VgZkeFPxTelDoY
|
Will Grok be available to X Premium+ subscribers next week without a waitlist? (by the end of Dec 3)
|
[tweet]I dropped "all" due to the practicality of resolution. Resolves based on an announcement that Grok is available without waitlist.
|
2023-11-24T10:30:17
|
2023-12-03T14:59:00
|
2023-12-04T01:40:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IrQlijitj3W1AKQs5TfQ
|
Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?
|
For example,
Draw me the image of the letter "A", rotated 90 degrees clockwise.
The intent here is that the user asks the model to draw the rotated letter and the model is capable of drawing the rotated character. If there's a rotated "A" in the image of a grandma cooking with "A" rotated on her apron... that's not in the spirit of the market.
(DALLE-2 and DALLE-3 fail at this task, at the time of market creation)
(fwiw, Midjourney's current version (V5) also fails at this task)
By the end of 2024, will any image generation model released by OpenAI be able to accomplish this monumental task, for all the characters of the english alphabet.
The rotation doesn't even need to be 90 degrees. I will accept rough approximations.
I will also trade in the market, because I wish to correct the market. There is no conflict of interest between my position and the judgement in cases of close calls.
|
2023-11-24T10:21:52
|
2025-01-01T00:00:00
|
2025-01-23T21:36:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1MFrcGa15GT4zZGmxWEM
|
Will there be a Ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-24T05:13:16
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T04:09:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0GdBAZ3KldF6TLO5273y
|
Regarding the China Child Pneumonia outbreak will the WHO declare it a Public Health Emergency of International Concern?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-24T04:08:52
|
2024-06-01T15:59:00
|
2024-07-09T06:39:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CJenjbo7GCnpzpjAwBMb
|
Netherlands: Will new elections be called before the end of 2024?
|
This question will resolve YES if a new Tweede Kamer election is announced before the start of 2025.
|
2023-11-24T02:01:37
|
2024-12-31T01:58:00
|
2025-01-05T07:28:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qg1fmGrzlh7Hvk4Fe6Fl
|
Will Linda Yaccarino resign from her position as the CEO of X within her first year?
|
Brand chiefs and marketing leaders have reached out to X CEO Linda Yaccarino to push her to resign.
“The issue is no longer about content adjacencies or content moderation. It’s simply that the owner is not someone marketers can do business with,” said Lou Paskalis, founder & CEO of marketing consultancy AJL Advisory and former head of global media at Bank of America.
Paskalis said he texted Yaccarino on Sunday afternoon and urged her to leave “before her reputation is damaged.”
Will Linda Yaccarino resign from her position as the CEO of X within her first year?
The market will close as “No” on 06/05/2024 (June 5th, 2024) unless she resigns or is fired by then.
The market will close as “No” if she is fired from her position.
|
2023-11-24T01:03:49
|
2024-06-05T18:58:26
|
2024-06-05T18:58:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LzOjFa53cFLReGXmPR76
|
Will Jude Bellingham win Ballon d’Or 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-23T19:16:08
|
2024-10-29T11:59:00
|
2024-11-01T10:05:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WkJOgEdHIbyLxh8wUuj5
|
Will Donald Trump win 2024 presidential election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-23T19:05:02
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-06T15:32:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SOLthpEdbl6W07Po55g1
|
Will Donald Trump be barred from the ballot in any state pursuant to the 14th Amendment before the 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-23T18:31:44
|
2024-11-04T13:39:33
|
2024-11-04T13:39:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-41rFVO09zsrChm2YUrN2
|
🤝 Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman reconcile before the end of 2024?
|
Open to improved criteria. Resolves to YES if the two appear together publicly, or if Elon Musk praises Sam Altman or OpenAI in the media.
|
2023-11-23T16:51:28
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:10:04
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VtGPolSazS6M5Mwuck7w
|
Will League of Legends team T1 (who won Worlds in 2023) win Worlds in 2024?
|
T1 just won the 2023 World Championship in League of Legends, and also just announced that their roster will be staying the same for 2024.
This will resolve YES if T1 win Worlds in 2024 and resolve NO if they lose or do not qualify.
|
2023-11-23T16:41:56
|
2024-11-03T09:06:56
|
2024-11-03T09:06:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eevASmOG0jEAUqYigKkc
|
Will THE FINALS release before the end of November? (M1000+ subsidy)
|
THE FINALS, the world-famous, free-to-play, combat-centered game show! Fight alongside your teammates in virtual arenas that you can alter, exploit, and even destroy. Build your own playstyle in this first-person shooter to win escalating tournaments and lasting fame.
During an open beta spanning the length of a week THE FINALS reached a peak concurrent player count higher than 7.5 million.
|
2023-11-23T15:13:09
|
2023-12-01T01:00:00
|
2023-12-01T07:55:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qr1LsZm0flaP7x85f3lE
|
Will the SNP be the party with the most seats in Scotland in the next UK general election?
|
With the SNP’s recent troubles, will they remain the party with the most seats in Scotland at the next GE or will another party (most likely Labour) overtake them?
|
2023-11-23T14:48:15
|
2024-07-06T13:10:48
|
2024-07-06T13:10:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WAOV7BTpKk5nIHUQ1L17
|
Will Tether collapse before 2025?
|
Resolves No at expiration.
Resolves Yes if Tether stays below $0.8 for 1 month.
|
2023-11-23T13:04:25
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:41:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FwDxGFis84PFORLakwOZ
|
Will Sam Altman retaliate and get rid of Ilya by the end of 2024?
|
This will resolve to YES if
- Ilya gets ousted or managed out
- This will also be counted as yes if he got removed and returned later
This will resolve to NO:
- Ilya didn't leave by the end of 2024 or voluntarily decided to leave
|
2023-11-23T11:48:11
|
2024-05-15T16:44:14
|
2024-05-15T16:44:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JwFxjgtP9gMmi5IFh5uC
|
Does there exist anyone with "e/acc" in their Twitter bio who will talk intelligently about AI risk?
|
I feel like one's gotta exist somewhere, but I have yet to come across them...
I'll count their display name as part of their bio, and I'll also accept variants like "E/acc". (Not things like "u/acc" or "l/acc", since those mean something different. If they have a different string and they say that it means the same thing as e/acc, then that will still count.) If they have it there in a context that indicates anything other than "I identify as part of this movement", that doesn't count. (e.g. someone can't put it there just to make this market resolve YES.)
I won't bet, please provide examples in the comments of people I should try interacting with. This is a serious question, it will resolve YES if I find anyone who identifies with the movement and seems to have a baseline level of reasoning ability, will answer questions about their beliefs in a consistent manner, etc. They can be pseudonymous, but it needs to be a real account, not someone with like, 3 followers.
Resolves NO if none can be found by the end of the year.
|
2023-11-23T11:03:48
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-02T10:41:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aKhOpGuVUiwf2wKGQwA5
|
Will Pitchfork give a new album a score higher than 9/10 before Jan 1, 2024?
|
If a new album is reviewed at 9.1/10 or above before January 1st, this is resolved as YES.
Otherwise, NO (*including 9*).
|
2023-11-23T10:45:11
|
2024-01-01T15:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:09:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0l9JylYamK0yqBZXTKQk
|
Will both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak be the leaders of their respective parties at the next UK General Election?
|
IF Keir Starmer leads Labour into election AND
Rishi Sunak leads the Conservatives then YES.
If either one is ousted / resigns prior to the election, then NO.
|
2023-11-23T09:13:21
|
2024-07-04T11:24:02
|
2024-07-04T11:24:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ua8GTPFfIMjVPBsb1xrk
|
Will details of Q* be published OR leaked by end of year?
|
Details include a full paper, official announcement / blogpost with description of how Q* works, or a credible leak of how Q* works.
|
2023-11-23T08:57:09
|
2023-12-31T23:59:00
|
2024-01-01T16:05:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-teXdzskPcoaAe8K5Izmz
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Charles Leclerc beat Carlos Sainz in the Drivers Championship?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 SEASON]
Resolves YES if by the end of the 2024 season, Charles Leclerc finishes ahead of Carlos Sainz in the World Drivers Championship with more points.
Market will continue regardless if either driver changes teams.
Market will continue if either driver retires or is otherwise unable to race for a portion/remainder of the season.
|
2023-11-23T08:44:44
|
2024-12-08T11:17:48
|
2024-12-08T11:17:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YulPWDHFTUkekmrO3v4J
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Oscar Piastri or Daniel Ricciardo win a race?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 SEASON]
Resolves YES if either Oscar Piastri or Daniel Ricciardo win a race during the 2024 season, not including sprints.
This includes victories from promotions due to penalties. For example if Max Verstappen won a race, but was disqualified or otherwise penalised down the finishing order, so that either Oscar Piastri or Daniel Ricciardo is promoted to 1st, the market would resolve YES.
|
2023-11-23T08:43:40
|
2024-07-21T07:48:55
|
2024-07-21T07:48:55
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-equjWu8xnfsR99hGS7TF
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will a race be won by any team besides Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren, or Ferrari?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 SEASON]
Resolves YES if any constructor besides Red Bull, Mercedes, McLaren or Ferrari have a driver that wins a race in the 2024 season, not including sprints.
This includes victories from promotions due to penalties. For example if Max Verstappen won a race, but was disqualified or otherwise penalised down the finishing order, so that a driver not in the listed teams is promoted to 1st, the market would resolve YES.
|
2023-11-23T08:42:29
|
2024-12-08T11:18:26
|
2024-12-08T11:18:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oj3cGThBVqnCOQltbGt5
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Lando Norris finish 3rd or higher in the Drivers Championship?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]
Resolves YES if Lando Norris finishes in 3rd place or higher in the World Drivers Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when his position becomes mathematically impossible to challenge.
If Lando Norris is replaced mid-season/retires or is otherwise no longer a driver on the grid the market will continue, using his final points in the standings prior to his leaving for the market.
If Norris never starts the 2024 season (eg. retires between 2023 season end, and the first 2024 race) the market will resolve N/A. As soon as Norris participates in a Grand Prix practice session, the market will count his participation in the season.
|
2023-11-23T08:38:27
|
2024-12-08T11:22:35
|
2024-12-08T11:22:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-590FkvXd4QOsCEbmYUxj
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Lewis Hamilton finish 3rd or higher in the Drivers Championship?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]
Resolves YES if Lewis Hamilton finishes in 3rd place or higher in the World Drivers Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when his position becomes mathematically impossible to challenge.
If Lewis Hamilton is replaced mid-season/retires or is otherwise no longer a driver on the grid the market will continue, using his final points in the standings prior to his leaving for the market.
If Hamilton never starts the 2024 season (eg. retires between 2023 season end, and the first 2024 race) the market will resolve N/A. As soon as Hamilton participates in a Grand Prix practice session, the market will count his participation in the season.
|
2023-11-23T08:37:47
|
2024-12-02T13:08:23
|
2024-12-02T13:08:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Sergio Perez finish 2nd or higher in the Drivers Championship?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]
Resolves YES if Sergio Perez finishes in 2nd place or wins the World Drivers Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when his position becomes mathematically impossible to challenge.
If Sergio Perez is replaced mid-season/retires or is otherwise no longer a driver on the grid the market will continue, using his final points in the standings prior to his leaving for the market.
If Perez never starts the 2024 season (eg. retires between 2023 season end, and the first 2024 race) the market will resolve N/A. As soon as Perez participates in a Grand Prix practice session, the market will count his participation in the season.
|
2023-11-23T08:37:00
|
2024-12-08T11:22:53
|
2024-12-08T11:22:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eQVW6KcOFg6qNjLL3BOB
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Mercedes finish in 2nd place or higher in the Constructors Championship?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP]
Resolves YES if Mercedes finishes in 2nd place in/or wins the World Constructors Championship in 2024, either by season end, or when their position is mathematically impossible to be challenged by a different team.
|
2023-11-23T08:34:30
|
2024-12-08T11:24:02
|
2024-12-08T11:24:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qqaezESkAFmlqw76x15q
|
[2024 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen win 6 or more races in a row?
|
[THIS IS FOR THE 2024 SEASON]
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen wins 6 full-length Grand Prix races during the 2024 season in a row. This does not include sprint victories.
If there is a race cancellation in-between two Verstappen victories, it will not interrupt his streak for the market.
|
2023-11-23T08:33:25
|
2024-10-23T07:31:40
|
2024-10-23T07:31:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NhDWxW7MkP73vpTswlnT
|
Will a Hamas leader be assassinated while in Qatar?
|
Any political or military leader or commander killed while in Qatar before 2025
|
2023-11-23T07:48:12
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-12-31T21:31:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0yHmmD6jwMF4Pwgpifig
|
Will the Mysterious Pneumonia Outbreak in Northern China Spread to at least two other Countries?
|
referring to:
https://www.who.int/news/item/22-11-2023-who-statement-on-reported-clusters-of-respiratory-illness-in-children-in-northern-china
|
2023-11-23T05:48:10
|
2024-03-26T09:00:24
|
2024-03-26T09:00:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PJoR6WQ65G2D3nh2QmNq
|
Will the Mysterious Pneumonia Outbreak in Northern China be a Pandemic?
|
referring to:
https://www.who.int/news/item/22-11-2023-who-statement-on-reported-clusters-of-respiratory-illness-in-children-in-northern-china
resolved based on reported case numbers, reasonable judgement, as well as the definition of 'pandemic' given here:
https://www.webmd.com/cold-and-flu/what-are-epidemics-pandemics-outbreaks
|
2023-11-23T05:41:43
|
2024-03-26T08:59:55
|
2024-03-26T08:59:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ftKWDQtSEYpPmVDlXlGR
|
2023 Dutch General Election: will cabinet formation succeed?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023%E2%80%932024_Dutch_cabinet_formation
Resolves YES if a government is formed before the next House (Tweede Kamer) election. Otherwise resolves NO.
|
2023-11-23T04:02:56
|
2024-07-02T04:34:44
|
2024-07-02T04:34:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uXMwI8r7TyXoeEwvPmiW
|
Is the recent increase in Pneumonia cases in China caused by a novel respiratory virus?
|
According to a statement released November 22nd by the WHO, "Since mid-October, northern China has reported an increase in influenza-like illness compared to the same period in the previous three years." and "requested additional epidemiologic and clinical information".
https://www.who.int/news/item/22-11-2023-who-statement-on-reported-clusters-of-respiratory-illness-in-children-in-northern-china
|
2023-11-23T03:32:05
|
2024-04-30T14:44:16
|
2024-04-30T14:44:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SIi49dfd2PjOOHGtKUzU
|
Will Russia and Ukraine enter into peace negotiations before 12/31/24?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-23T03:21:33
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T17:40:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-DhlxKB4GAEeHOq5qfKo1
|
Will any of @openai, @sama, @gdb, @miramurati, @ilyasut, @eshear tweet about Q* in 2023
|
If any of twitter accounts listed in this description posts a tweet about Q* in 2023, then this market is resolved YES. If there is not such tweet in 2023 the market resolves NO.
https://twitter.com/openai
https://twitter.com/sama
https://twitter.com/gdb
https://twitter.com/miramurati
https://twitter.com/ilyasut
https://twitter.com/eshear
There can be several tweets about Q* from diffrent accounts listed, but just one tweet from one account from this list if is enough for YES.
The Q* can be spelled as "Q*", "Q-*", "Q-star", "Q-⭐", or something like this, but it should be present in tweet, so if @openai tweets something like "The rumors can be true" this does not count because Q* is not explicitly named.
For this market is does not matter if they confirm or deny that Q* was created/exists. This market is only about mentioning Q* in the tweets. This market will be resolved YES if @sama tweets "There is no such thing as Q* and never been"
For this market the changes in Twitter/X does not matter. If the posts can't be named "tweets" , the main domain changes to x.com — such things does not affect resolution.
## Timezone
Timezone is PT (the timezone of San Francisco OpenAI office)
## Author betting rules
The author of the market can bet on this market.
## Resolving rules
This market will be resolved as NO in early 2024 if no such tweet was published.
This market will be resolved as YES shortly after such tweet is published on twitter.
|
2023-11-23T03:20:44
|
2024-01-02T15:59:00
|
2024-01-03T13:46:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gPPLAQYttu7LezFzE8Sr
|
Will BBC News run another article on the increase in respiratory illness in Chinese children by market close?
|
The BBC (among others) is reporting an increase in respiratory illness in children in China. The World Health Organisation has requested further data from Chinese authorities. Resolves YES if the BBC runs another article with further news on this topic on bbc.co.uk/news before the end of December 7th.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-67505218
|
2023-11-23T03:00:07
|
2023-12-07T15:59:00
|
2023-12-07T22:02:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0hcbHkuyzyQbFM9UAXGx
|
Will Rishi Sunak face a formal confidence vote from the Conservative Party before the end of March 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-23T01:52:23
|
2024-03-31T15:59:00
|
2024-04-01T08:26:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-bURzZbiZR4gtbXkEwBUS
|
Will Conor McGregor fight in the UFC before July 1st 2024?
|
Will Conor McGregor step inside a UFC octagon and fight before July 1st 2024? Only will count if the fight actually happens. The result of the fight won't matter.
|
2023-11-22T22:51:02
|
2024-07-01T14:59:00
|
2024-07-02T10:26:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iKD5WJoAGEgjvVl3S6xx
|
Will Open AI have a new CEO in the next 30 Days?
|
Do you think the craziness is far from over?
|
2023-11-22T21:20:38
|
2023-12-23T10:29:00
|
2023-12-24T18:54:44
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ybvKdqW8XK3ecil4R6ri
|
Will Messi's Inter Miami vs Ronaldo's Al Nassr, with both playing, occur by end of Feb 2024?
|
This market predicts whether the announced friendly match between Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami and Cristiano Ronaldo’s Al Nassr, scheduled for February 2024 as part of the Riyadh Season Cup, will indeed take place by the end of February 2024 with both players participating. The match is being anticipated as a significant event, potentially one of the last times these football legends will face each other on the pitch. Bets will be resolved based on official announcements and coverage confirming the match has taken place with both Messi and Ronaldo participating. For more details, refer to [this news article](https://www.sportingnews.com/us/soccer/news/messi-vs-ronaldo-2024-inter-miami-vs-al-nassr-friendly-last-dance-football-greatness/1v6nh1d3r2p7v1oezp6gndusmr).
Clarification: both players must take the field in order for this to resolve YES. If one of them is on the bench and never gets subbed in, that will be a NO.
|
2023-11-22T19:01:45
|
2024-02-12T13:08:19
|
2024-02-12T13:08:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N3h3nsi8TYNMywoO3iUU
|
Will North Korea detonate a nuclear weapon in 2024?
|
Tests, demonstrations, and offensive use included.
UTC time zone.
|
2023-11-22T17:56:42
|
2025-01-01T15:23:20
|
2025-01-01T15:23:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mcLDUhiqjmGovRlrHvif
|
Will Geert Wilders be the Dutch Prime Minister at any point in 2024?
|
Should be self explanatory.
|
2023-11-22T16:46:42
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:41:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-59HswyRJq0agIhxXwicF
|
Is the Reuters story about OpenAI's Q* substantively true?
|
Alex Heath reports it isn't: https://twitter.com/alexeheath/status/1727472179283919032
This resolves to YES if, in my best judgment, after 30 days, the story is substantively true. The rules of bounded distrust apply, so misleading does not mean false. Falsehood must change the substantive implications of the information, again as per my best judgment.
EDIT: I want to clarify and make explicit what I will do if we do not get clarity on this. If after 30 days, taking into account the market price and trading history as a key component, I am >90% confident in the right answer, I will resolve at the deadline, even if not 100% sure. If I am not, I will extend the deadline until such time as I am confident.
EDIT 2: I have extended to April 1, 2024, as the date at which I will resolve this even if no substantial new evidence comes to light and trading continues to not be more confident. The only exception would be if we get new expectation of additional evidence coming afterwards. I also could resolve this before then if I ever become >90% confident.
"Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers sent the board of directors a letter warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters."
The previously unreported letter and AI algorithm was a catalyst that caused the board to oust Altman, the poster child of generative AI, the two sources said. Before his triumphant return late Tuesday, more than 700 employees had threatened to quit and join backer Microsoft (MSFT.O) in solidarity with their fired leader.
The sources cited the letter as one factor among a longer list of grievances by the board that led to Altman’s firing. Reuters was unable to review a copy of the letter. The researchers who wrote the letter did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
OpenAI declined to comment.
"According to one of the sources, long-time executive Mira Murati told employees on Wednesday that a letter about the AI breakthrough called Q* (pronounced Q-Star), precipitated the board's actions."
The maker of ChatGPT had made progress on Q*, which some internally believe could be a breakthrough in the startup's search for superintelligence, also known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), one of the people told Reuters. OpenAI defines AGI as AI systems that are smarter than humans.
Given vast computing resources, the new model was able to solve certain mathematical problems, the person said on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on behalf of the company. Though only performing math on the level of grade-school students, acing such tests made researchers very optimistic about Q*’s future success, the source said.
|
2023-11-22T16:38:52
|
2024-04-01T20:59:00
|
2024-04-02T03:36:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5uIbMzK1dohtr07fYb2p
|
Will there be a repeat election for the 2023 Dutch parliamentary elections?
|
Resolves YES if Dutch parliamentary elections are called without a new government having been sworn in.
|
2023-11-22T16:35:15
|
2024-07-02T10:20:22
|
2024-07-02T10:20:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eqDqMfh1IAkMAHLrvT2Q
|
Will the Conservatives / Tories win more than 200 seats at the next UK general election?
|
Alternatively
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-53eabaecdbdf)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m)(https://manifold.markets/embed/Tomoffer/will-the-conservatives-tories-win-m-c064235d18b7)
|
2023-11-22T15:56:50
|
2024-07-04T22:51:10
|
2024-07-04T22:51:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VMgLjh5SkriloaCpp52k
|
Will the far-right PVV be part of the next Dutch coalition?
|
The far-right PVV just won the most seats in the Dutch elections, an estimated 35 out of 150. However, multiple large parties (Labour/Greens (26 seats), NSC (20 seats)) have stated not to form a coalition with the PVV. The VVD (Liberals, 23 seats) have stated they would be not exclude the PVV, but would not accept the PVV leader as PM.
It is traditional that the largest party gets the first attempt to form a coalition.
76 seats are needed to form a majority coalition, though minority coalitions are possible.
An alternative coalition of Greens-Labour, VVD, NSC, D66, would yield 79 seats.
This question will resolve when a coalition agreement has been signed.
|
2023-11-22T15:02:56
|
2024-07-02T02:00:25
|
2024-07-02T02:00:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PHklNfTWfuYI2SaJ0kEC
|
Will the current mystery pneumonia spread beyond China?
|
There is currently an outbreak of pneumonia among chinese children. See, for example, here: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/mysterious-pneumonia-outbreak-china-hospitals-sick-children-b1122117.html
Thi sounds worringly similar to Covid (but also dissimilar in some ways). I wonder if this will be a global phenomenon.
As of December 31st 2023, will this mystery pneumonia spread beyond China in a significant way? I will resolve this question as yes if more than 1000 confirmed or highly likely confirmed cases exist (or have existed between now and then) outside of China on the resolution day.
EDIT from Dec 5 for clarification, as requested in the comments:
This market specifically concerns a mysterious pathogen, like covid would have been in its early days. This market does not concern existing viruses such as RSV, because that is hardly mysterious.
I understand that the "mysterious" pathogen may be a mutation of an existing pathogen (like covid was). This obviously counts, if there has been a substantial mutation (like covid was). Minor mutations (like the constant minor changes to the seasonal flu) dont count. For example, let's assume that the "mystery pneumonia" is an RSV outbreak. That would not count, unless it turns out to be a novel Super-RSV with substantially higher mortality/infectiousness/whatever,
Also, this question pertains to the specific mystery pneumonia observed in China, wherever it may be from. Only this one counts. If this pathogen is originally from a different country and spreads from there, it counts because its still the pathogen that this question is about. If it turns out that there is a second mystery pneumonia that has nothing to do with the current outbreak in China but still spreads globally, it does not count (because this question is about the present outbreak in China).
|
2023-11-22T14:43:01
|
2023-12-31T14:59:00
|
2023-12-31T17:39:02
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SSqnYGwSZLnV19LTyhCN
|
[Metaculus] Novel pathogen found responsible for pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?
|
Will a novel pathogen be identified as responsible for the pneumonia reported in Beijing or Liaoning before December 15, 2023?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20092/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before December 15, 2023, credible sources report that the pneumonia cases reportedly occurring in Beijing or Liaoning have been identified as being caused by a novel pathogen.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-11-22T14:10:26
|
2023-12-15T06:42:16
|
2023-12-15T06:42:16
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WTPXuQTST0dOkplI48CR
|
[Metaculus] Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?
|
Will the November 2023 Israel-Hamas humanitarian pause be extended?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20063/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if credible sources report that the length of the November 2023 humanitarian pause between Israel and Hamas has been extended beyond the default length of four days and the extension has begun. If credible sources report that the humanitarian pause will not begin this question will be annulled. If the four-day humanitarian pause begins but credible sources report that it has ended before the default length was reached this question will resolve as No.
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-11-22T13:49:13
|
2023-11-28T18:16:05
|
2023-11-28T18:16:05
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GbiZozbxS8ZvBO6VOJlc
|
Will Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous groundhog in the U.S., see his shadow on Groundhog Day, February 2nd, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-22T12:31:03
|
2024-02-01T20:59:00
|
2024-02-02T08:33:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tv0eAu4k8wdyk6DzHVSN
|
Will Cherry blossoms in Tokyo bloom before March 20th 2024?
|
Tokyo bloom date 2023 was March 14:
https://tenki.jp/lite/forecaster/deskpart/2023/03/14/22261.html
|
2023-11-22T12:28:51
|
2024-03-20T15:59:00
|
2024-03-20T16:54:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mdG3tKkynf4DlkUtVsxQ
|
Will Destiny start stream before 4:15 PM Miami time today (22.11.)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-22T11:16:30
|
2023-11-22T13:15:00
|
2023-11-22T13:15:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PLF9rDcRqGi5zXQ0lZ4k
|
Will 'Wish' (2023) be rated at least 6.0 on IMDb one week after release?
|
Resolves YES if Wish (2023) has an IMDb rating of 6.0 or higher at 11:59 PM UTC on Wednesday, Nov 29, 2023.
Resolves NO if the rating is below 6.0 at that time.
IMDb page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt11304740/
|
2023-11-22T11:15:35
|
2023-11-29T15:59:00
|
2023-11-29T16:07:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cgJSzfEw3E1ZIEVbV3iq
|
Will Bitcoin (BTC) close higher on Nov 30 than Nov 20?
|
This market will be resolved based on Yahoo's close price.
Previous Close Price: 37,476.96
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD/history?p=BTC-USD
[link preview]
|
2023-11-22T11:11:44
|
2023-11-30T15:00:00
|
2023-11-30T16:24:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VT5fWBngVyJGrYg9Msys
|
Will Ilya Sutskever continue to lead the Superalignment Team this year?
|
Ilya Sutskever is currently a co-leader of the Superalignment team: https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment.
This question resolves NO if Ilya Sutskever is not a leader of the Superalignment team at any point before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2023 and YES otherwise.
I will not bet in this market.
|
2023-11-22T10:54:41
|
2024-01-01T09:58:49
|
2024-01-01T09:58:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UjfYIaEzFAKirYWPqgHN
|
Will Igor Girkin survive through 2024?
|
Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, is a former Russian security services officer and pro-Russian separatist military commander. He played a significant role in the initial stages of the conflict in Ukraine in 2014, leading a militia that seized control in Eastern Ukraine. Girkin is infamously known for his involvement in the downing of MH17, a civilian aircraft, which led to his conviction for murder. He is also accused of committing war crimes in Chechnya and Bosnia. Known for his ultranationalist views and loyalty to the Kremlin, Girkin has a notable fascination with Russia's imperial past.
More recently, Girkin has been in the news for his imprisonment awaiting trial for inciting extremism. Despite being in custody, he expressed a desire to run for the Russian presidency.
[image]
|
2023-11-22T10:00:43
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-03T11:14:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eOT64o5t96B6d8i0ovCn
|
Will the US Supreme Court overrule Chevron in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-22T09:36:36
|
2024-06-28T07:49:48
|
2024-06-28T07:49:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d8l3I6JscOwWvRp1lHAQ
|
Will Chris Olah leave Anthropic before 2024 end?
|
For any duration. A sabbatical doesn't count. Resolves yes even if he leaves and comes back.
|
2023-11-22T09:13:15
|
2025-01-01T10:29:00
|
2025-01-01T19:24:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zRF9y8WMQakaSn2vYuD3
|
Is Raptor reliability solved? (Will all of them work on the next flight?) (IFT-3)
|
On the last Starship flight (Orbital Flight Test 2), all 39 Raptor engines started up and apparently ran correctly. On the next flight, will we see all engines operating correctly when they get a chance to do so?
This includes proper operation for the entire flight of both stages. Uncommanded shutdowns, engine explosions, and failed relights will all result in this resolving No, with the major caveat that this must be attributed to engine problems. If, as has been suggested happened on flight 2, engines fail because of stage problems, tank problems, propellant slosh, tank depressurization, or other related problems, that will not result in this resolving No.
There is no requirement for a successful landing, completion of second stage flight, etc.
If the flight is other than nominal, resolution of this will probably have to wait until after the flight for a mishap report or other credible reporting.
Previously: @/EvanDaniel/on-the-next-starship-launch-how-man
|
2023-11-22T08:32:57
|
2024-05-25T13:33:54
|
2024-05-25T15:36:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-t7KXnH5TXS5wh5SuGxSP
|
Will the Detroit Lions beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 12 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Lions win
No - Packers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-22T07:13:35
|
2023-11-23T12:42:48
|
2023-11-23T12:42:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7yrDYDzrHrjfh1tcYHuS
|
Will Starlink provide satellite-based texting services for unmodified smartphones in 2024?
|
As claimed on https://direct.starlink.com/:
Direct to Cell works with existing LTE phones wherever you can see the sky. No changes to hardware, firmware, or special apps are required, providing seamless access to text, voice, and data.
"Existing LTE phone" means a mobile phone commercially available in at least one market not after December 31st, 2023.
"Offer" means a public or beta launch available to at least 100 members of the general public (i.e. not limited to journalists, SpaceX employees) in at least one country. Requiring a new or existing subscription with a specific network counts (e.g. T-Mobile in the US).
"No changes to hardware, firmware, or special apps are required" will be judged by a specific mention of Starlink, SpaceX, or LTE-based satellite service in any software or firmware update released by the manufacturer between the launch of the device and the end of 2024. Non-Starlink or non-LTE satellite services, such as Apple's satellite-based emergency SOS service, can be mentioned.
"Text" means bidirectional texting using the phone's built-in messaging client (SMS or anything else the phone supports without installing an application not already present on the device as a factory default) with another ground- or space-based mobile phone and can't be limited only to SOS applications.
|
2023-11-22T06:59:42
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T15:15:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-L7BfgrBwrQpVYQJnPd3y
|
Will Max Verstappen will win the Abu Dhabi GP
|
According the official reaslt
|
2023-11-22T06:58:18
|
2023-11-26T06:55:24
|
2023-11-26T06:55:24
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f56mTRa5AXgeiTJDey57
|
Hamas will release over 50 additional hostages by 12/1/23 (12:01am EST)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-22T03:26:34
|
2023-11-26T13:14:57
|
2023-11-26T13:14:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BtZPufrTuEFslIngg0s9
|
Will the Tesla union strike in Sweden spread to at least one other EU country by the end of 2024?
|
This market predicts if the union strike against Tesla in Sweden will inspire similar strikes in at least one other EU country by December 31, 2024.
Resolution will depend on verified reports of strikes against Tesla by unions in other members of the European Union.
For clarification, solidarity actions taken in other countries in support of the strike in Sweden, will not count as the strike spreading.
Examples:
- Transport workers in Denmark take solidarity action and refuse services to Tesla. This does not count as the strike spreading, as the primary strike is still in Sweden.
- IG Metall in Germany, inspired by the Swedish strike, also take mechanics out in strike, with the same demands. This does count as the strike spreading.
Background Information:
https://www.investopedia.com/tesla-faces-growing-union-pressure-in-sweden-as-strike-spreads-8402660
https://sverigesradio.se/artikel/strike-widens-at-tesla-sweden
https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/a/VPnpoW/musks-order-inga-avtal-i-sverige
Related Markets:
[markets]
|
2023-11-22T03:26:27
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T11:51:42
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PUwlXMOgIRJfKj9ADg93
|
Will Hamas launch rockets at Israel during the ceasefire?
|
Recent news says Israel and Hamas have agreed to a short ceasefire. Will Hamas launch rockets before the official conclusion of the ceasefire?
|
2023-11-22T00:28:25
|
2023-11-23T23:48:52
|
2023-11-23T23:48:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H6OpEYwWq1bDfWVaP5io
|
Will Sam Altman return to the OpenAI Board before the end of 2024?
|
Voting seat only, observer seat does not count
|
2023-11-21T23:21:30
|
2024-03-08T19:25:49
|
2024-03-08T19:25:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Ll54tygTFDLiXv9T7DO
|
Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI again before the end of 2024?
|
This question resolves as YES if Sam Altman ceases to be CEO of OpenAI, whether because of his resignation, death, transition to a different role, or for any other cause, before the end of 2024.
See also:
[markets]
|
2023-11-21T22:54:41
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T00:26:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zt9SuKyx3ZHm40Rd42LR
|
Will there be yet another sudden dramatic announcement about OpenAI or Microsoft before November 26?
|
Things that have qualified so far:
Firing Sam Altman.
Being in talks to rehire Sam Altman.
Actually not rehiring Sam Altman after all.
Actually actually rehiring Sam Altman for real this time.
This market was created on Nov 21, 2023, 22:30:10 Pacific Time. Any events prior to that time do not qualify.
|
2023-11-21T22:30:10
|
2023-11-25T21:00:00
|
2023-12-01T11:54:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tbznoVGE8cqQOfjj3Uug
|
Will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce be a couple until 2025
|
If they break up at any time before Jan 2025 this market will resolve No
|
2023-11-21T18:00:44
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-01T06:25:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dwuJhStG7ZjuIGoT6ZVm
|
Will anyone be killed from fighting during the upcoming ceasefire in Gaza?
|
Will someone be killed from fighting while the ceasefire is still officially in effect? Can be killed by any kind of military or militia action, including friendly fire. Can be a civilian as well. Something like starvation or lack of access to medical care doesn't count. It doesn't matter if the killing is an accident or if it ends the ceasefire.
If Hamas and Israel mutually agree to shorten or extend the ceasefire, this affects the relevant time period for this market, but if the ceasefire breaks without mutual agreement, the time relevant time period will stay the same.
|
2023-11-21T17:45:41
|
2023-11-26T07:04:41
|
2023-11-26T07:04:41
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2j7vGRgCQEc9id37xTec
|
Will the Israel and HAMAS ceasefire last for the full 4 days
|
Resolves yes if the hostages are released as agreed upon and Israel holds up their end of the bargain.
Resolves no if the ceasefire ends early.
|
2023-11-21T16:52:50
|
2023-11-28T06:40:39
|
2023-11-28T07:52:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wshEA4iEAl5x4AsPeojC
|
Will Matt Levine put out a third column during Thanksgiving week?
|
I hate to torture the guy but it seems like he is tempting fate once more even if it's not involving Elon Musk? He says he's off rest of the week.
|
2023-11-21T15:52:49
|
2023-11-26T04:45:58
|
2023-11-26T04:45:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gBF6UEr070Z6mMwZLKOT
|
If Sam Altman rejoins OpenAI as the CEO, will he stay CEO for another year?
|
continuously.
if he has not joined back as CEO after this current saga is over then resolves NA
|
2023-11-21T15:02:11
|
2024-12-31T10:29:00
|
2025-01-03T10:19:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T69WxcCqZfYvZ8VWmkSz
|
Will Nikki Haley call Vivek Ramaswamy a derogatory term at the 4th Republican Primary Debate?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T14:55:59
|
2023-12-07T06:34:40
|
2023-12-07T06:34:40
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0elNEzPvscYAVJ3DYrEs
|
Will Sam Altman be OpenAI CEO again by 22 November 2023? (End of day, PST)
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T14:07:38
|
2023-12-22T12:46:00
|
2024-12-31T16:21:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2msdzIm25vqf6qjmWYSH
|
Will Destiny play a real game on stream before December 21th? (at least 3 hours) (excluding browser games)
|
Destiny has barely played any games on stream since he's been on those ADHD meds. Resolves yes if he spends at least 3 hours on any single "real" game before this market closes.
Only time played on stream counts.
"Real game" here just means any game which is not played in a browser.
If the game is running in the background but he is not interacting with it for a substantial amount of time, then that time won't count towards the total.
He doesn't have to play 3 hours continuously! His total time in one single game has to add up 3 hours.
|
2023-11-21T12:31:14
|
2023-12-15T05:57:50
|
2023-12-15T05:57:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dlDdNFjTdaGWex4YsfLA
|
Will America engage in a military action against the Houthi Rebels in 2023? (read description)
|
N/A
This resolves N/A if a branch of the American military executes a boarding operation on the Israeli ship "Galaxy Leader".
This resolves N/A if the American military only executes bloodless (physical) operations against Houthi Rebels in 2023 (after November 21st). (no cyber warfare, no bank freeze)
YES
This resolves YES if a branch of the American military attacks and causes at least one Houthi casualty in 2023 (after November 21st).
NO
This resolves NO if no branch of the American military attacks the Houthi Rebels in 2023 (after November 21st).
|
2023-11-21T11:26:51
|
2023-12-31T16:23:44
|
2023-12-31T16:23:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5azc3vhrjljwPwxQLtg2
|
Will a LLM beat human experts on GPQA by Jan 1, 2025?
|
GQPA dataset here: https://arxiv.org/abs/2311.12022
"Human expert" means 74%.
Currently, GPT-4 gets 39%.
The LLM is allowed to use external tools (e.g. Google, Wolfram Alpha).
|
2023-11-21T11:15:24
|
2024-12-20T11:38:50
|
2024-12-20T11:38:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lKh9F9NFEBsBWeyoroOf
|
NFL🏈: Week 13 - Will the New England Patriots win their NFL Game against the Los Angeles Chargers on 12/03?
|
Resolved Based on Game Day. Trading will close at 1:00 PM PST
|
2023-11-21T10:22:53
|
2023-12-03T13:00:00
|
2023-12-03T13:01:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Fo7HyrqbOOVWNKxUYbZr
|
Will Matt Levine create a market on Manifold by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T10:19:57
|
2023-12-31T20:15:08
|
2023-12-31T20:15:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d7T1Crw7LzTMQoDwk0ko
|
Will Changpeng Zhao (CZ) do any prison time for money laundering?
|
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/binance-ceo-changpeng-zhao-step-down-plead-guilty-01f72a40
Resolves YES if he does any prison time as part of a sentencing.
I will extend close time if proceedings take longer.
Only what CZ pleas to will count. Based from the initial plea agreement with Binance, DOJ, and CZ. If another crime comes up, it will not count to this question.
|
2023-11-21T09:31:37
|
2024-06-01T00:25:32
|
2024-06-01T00:25:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9siZDSdCDaPndik8QvpP
|
Will any U.S. Supreme Court justice resign or retire in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T09:28:09
|
2024-12-31T22:59:00
|
2025-01-04T02:47:45
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cX8xy2yuoFoOn2Y0F6f8
|
Will the Eagles make it to the Super Bowl in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T08:14:53
|
2024-01-17T20:48:07
|
2024-01-17T20:48:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ytpUtdOjfyzNLr896kOT
|
Will a spot BTC ETF get approved before April 1, 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T08:14:11
|
2024-01-13T16:36:20
|
2024-01-13T16:36:20
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qz0DKtzlocCVGgqjOBzq
|
Will the Jets start someone other than Tim Boyle at quarterback between Weeks 13-15?
|
2023 Regular Season
|
2023-11-21T06:47:19
|
2023-12-10T13:19:22
|
2023-12-10T13:19:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IlJD9zhPUAWQb092TxcO
|
Will Gazans displaced following Israel's evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza by April 1st, 2024?
|
Will Gazans who fled to the south as a result of the Israeli evacuation orders be allowed back to Northern Gaza (e.g. Gaza City) by April 1st, 2024?
Question resolves YES if a major news outlet (e.g. AP, BBC, CNN, Reuters) confirms at least 100,000 Gazans (out of those displaced by the evacuation orders issued after October 7th, 2023) have been allowed to return, are in the process of returning, or have returned to the homes they abandoned following the evacuation of Northern Gaza.
Similar market
🟢 @/jBosc/will-gazans-displaced-following-isr-344501ae9902
|
2023-11-21T06:35:33
|
2024-04-01T00:05:36
|
2024-04-01T00:05:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yCJPG50b5vrPbCo3f9kH
|
Will the OpenAI board release a report documenting the reasons or evidence for why they fired Sam Altman, by Christmas?
|
The format doesn't really matter. Could be a letter from the board, or a join statement or Press conference. The question is whether the board will tell us things they fired Sam for.
By christmas = 24th 11:59pm pt
|
2023-11-21T04:45:59
|
2023-12-25T22:00:00
|
2023-12-25T22:22:05
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gPI5SjKbHCYHtvh5xW9C
|
Will >100 employees leave OpenAI by the end of 2023?
|
Starting count = roughly 770
End count = ???
Difference > 100?
|
2023-11-21T04:39:14
|
2023-12-31T10:29:00
|
2023-12-31T11:28:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qm9QjMk5kcGUlgXXYmh2
|
Will Adam D'Angelo post on X regarding the board's reasons this week?
|
The week ends Friday night at midnight PST.
|
2023-11-21T00:49:06
|
2024-01-15T15:59:00
|
2024-05-12T07:03:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7GEXVKWMrtUTG6ncxX0o
|
Will Ilya Sutskever agree to join Elon Musk to work on Grok end of November 2023
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-21T00:29:17
|
2023-12-01T15:59:00
|
2023-12-02T10:21:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.