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mani-IBer1Lm5fyW3jE37jKz4
GPT-4 weights leaked before 2024?
Must be a public leak that results in at least 10 individuals unaffiliated with OpenAI downloading the complete (or near-complete) set of model weights.
2023-11-20T22:31:39
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T12:57:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-j9C8xzmzMv3xPz0Lxhuk
Is Adam D’Angelo the reason why Sam Altman got fired?
Will resolve to Yes if at any point between now and Jan 1 convincing evidence emerges that Adam D’Angelo, CEO of Quora and OpenAI board member, was the driving force behind Sam Altman’s firing. This includes, but is not limited to, his envy over the OAI’s GPT store feature resembling Poe’s creator platform.
2023-11-20T22:28:45
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2024-01-09T13:21:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M5HyCkqDZ3CdIRLa7fKp
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 World Drivers Championship?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-20T19:30:15
2024-11-24T13:07:29
2024-11-24T13:07:29
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ydj0ynMCx6iryBVioQyq
Was Adam D'Angelo behind the OpenAI coup?
Burden of proof: yes (light) At the time of creation of this question it is widely repeated that Ilya Sutskever was instrumental in the OpenAI coup. Sutskever, who also co-founded OpenAI and leads its researchers, was instrumental in the ousting of Altman this week, according to multiple sources. https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo However, at this time Ilya has joined a petition calling for the Board of Directions to resign and has stated that he regrets his role, implying he was not the actual leader of the coup. I will choose yes if media sources begin explicitly naming Adam D'Angelo and implying or suggesting that he had a hand in leading the coup or that he influenced Ilya to do so.
2023-11-20T18:50:29
2024-03-31T08:59:00
2024-04-09T11:46:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-lztyjVpIMU5kdEUcV1Lq
Will the SP500 enter a bear market in 2024?
As defined by 20% (or more) drop
2023-11-20T18:19:50
2025-01-01T03:49:27
2025-01-01T03:49:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zVyCPJFgbBLnXhinQW36
Will OpenAI and Anthropic announce they're merging into one in 2023?
Self-describing. If they release a press release saying they're merging into one team, this market resolves to YES. This market resolves to NO by year end. I may bet on this market.
2023-11-20T17:41:05
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2023-12-31T20:50:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xyzn5xnnepu1t1KrchZ2
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 7.0 in IMDB at the end of 2024?
Closes by the end of 2024 at Yes if Napoleon is rated 7.0 or above, and at No if not IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/ Related: https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-801438346ff1
2023-11-20T17:29:13
2024-12-31T18:59:00
2025-01-02T07:37:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FM6MCSIQe4qGYKrLO1yf
Will Apple stock (AAPL) fully break $200 before $180? (2nd attempt)
Last price: 2024-Mar-01 $179.66 (day’s high $180.53) (will try to update meaningful moves after Nasdaq close) Resolves after the first regular (9:30am-4pm ET) or half-day (1pm early close around some US holidays) Nasdaq trading session after market creation (2023-Nov-20) during which the price stays above $200 (YES) or below $180 (NO) for the whole session. In other words, the first time one of these is the case after Nasdaq close: Resolves YES if AAPL intraday low > $200 Resolves NO if AAPL intraday high < $180 Will extend closing date as needed. Reference is publicly-quoted intraday high/low, adjusted for any future stock splits (e.g. if it splits 2:1 at $190 then quoted prices next day would be $95 post split but would not cause it to resolve NO since reference price for this market would be x2)
2023-11-20T15:53:33
2024-03-04T14:51:41
2024-03-04T14:51:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-PKivsuPyeQk30DECiif5
Will WTI hit 100 or 50 before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-20T15:08:28
2025-01-01T22:59:00
2025-01-12T04:33:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pu7iG3w2uWyrqeJhiN63
Will OpenAI have at least 20% of its current staff in 3 weeks?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-20T13:52:42
2023-12-11T23:59:00
2023-12-12T09:04:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ItkiKkfXybW8u99h6TwP
Cricket: Will India win the 5 match T20I series against Australia from 11/23/2023 - 12/3/2023?
If the series ends in a draw due to ties, wash-outs, or any other circumstances, this market will resolve to 50% (great suggestion from @Eliza!).
2023-11-20T13:01:57
2023-12-01T09:03:01
2023-12-01T09:03:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bhBwm8iKOY3J8wbjB78C
NFL🏈: Week 13 - Will the Dallas Cowboys win their TNF NFL Game against the Seattle Seahawks on 11/30?
Resolved based on Game Day Score. I will close this question for further bets at 8:30 PM Pacific.
2023-11-20T12:24:26
2023-11-30T20:30:00
2023-11-30T20:56:20
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-z9xza5jNKviVBJMQB8hB
Will Altman leaving openai end up in court?
Resolved to yes if legal action is reported as filed by Openai, Altman or Microsoft against any of the other two, if reported by more than one reputable american news outlet.
2023-11-20T11:54:37
2023-12-20T14:59:00
2023-12-20T15:41:22
no
MANIFOLD
mani-S3kkVs3zyTGsXxpMJoXo
Will Cruise or Waymo open their services to everyone in SF by mid 2024?
Resolves positively if, by 2024-06-31, either Cruise or Waymo permit anyone physically located in San Francisco to order ride-hailing services. Any subsection of SF counts - it doesn't have to permit you to access all or any combination of neighborhoods. The important criteria is that, with the exception of common-sense restrictions (i.e., no smoking or other minor filtering mechanisms), anyone can order a Waymo or Cruise car. Public access similar to Uber/Lyft/Bird/Lime would resolve positively.
2023-11-20T11:49:11
2024-06-25T09:52:37
2024-06-25T09:52:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZeW9I26y6LwrWFnM3Y0w
Will any OpenAI employee leak key non-public information about GPT-4 before the end of 2023?
Information that was not known to the public prior to this leak. Could be about the parameters, by someone who worked on the training team, for example.
2023-11-20T10:21:56
2023-12-31T08:52:00
2023-12-31T23:05:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-717TdK2xZl5KUQ8f9h45
Will ChatGPT still exist in 2025?
Based on recent leadership changes, will OpenAI still be operating ChatGPT to the public by 2025? I will clarify the question as needed.
2023-11-20T09:52:43
2025-01-01T21:59:00
2025-02-01T23:06:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-d57KVV2IG2LoBij4L4PE
The Board of OpenAI resigns by 2024
Resolves Yes if all members have resigned by Jan 1st 2024 GMT
2023-11-20T09:48:36
2024-01-01T15:59:00
2024-01-01T16:38:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rvHnNmghFGgU3VcqgfFk
Will more than 50% of the OpenAI staff leave for Microsoft by weeks end?
Resolves at 10pm on Sunday November 26th if 385 or more employees have been reported to have left OpenAI and now be employed by Microsoft.
2023-11-20T09:45:52
2023-11-26T19:17:34
2023-11-26T19:17:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DnqCG9YWHkX3sA7TJa1Q
Will Apple stock close on Friday above the opening on this Monday?
This Monday (20st November, 2023) opening price: $189.89 Friday (24th November, 2023) closing price source: https://investor.apple.com/stock-price/default.aspx
2023-11-20T09:45:00
2023-11-24T10:14:36
2023-11-24T10:14:36
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JamwXK0h5VwBXjDcQRxu
Will OpenAI's API *Cumulative* Historical Uptime for November 2023 be Above 99% as Reported on Their Status Page?
This market is based on the cumulative uptime percentage for the entire month of November 2023, as reported on OpenAI's official status page (https://status.openai.com/uptime?page=1). The market will consider the final reported figure after November has concluded. The market will close at the beginning of December, before OpenAI updates the final uptime statistics for November. Resolution will be based on the first official report after the end of November.
2023-11-20T08:55:36
2023-11-30T16:00:00
2023-12-03T07:11:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-kevbSXI9gtiw208muhTm
Will Alec Radford no longer be employed by OpenAI by the end of November?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-20T08:21:56
2023-12-02T10:29:00
2023-12-02T11:08:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OqmUIx9yacUn22M61Nxn
Will Emmett Shear, the interim CEO of OpenAI, no longer be in this position within a month?
within a month = 30 days from when he was appointed CEO of OpenAI. He says I have a three point plan for the next 30 days: - Hire an independent investigator to dig into the entire process leading up to this point and generate a full report. Continue to speak to as many of our employees, partners, investors, and customers as possible, take good notes, and share the key takeaways. Reform the management and leadership team in light of recent departures into an effective force to drive results for our customers.
2023-11-20T08:19:31
2023-11-29T17:39:56
2023-11-29T17:39:56
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-9a6l9Clw7mTHUL14SeBu
Will Microsoft ($MSFT) trade above $400 at any point this year?
Market resolves YES if Microsoft shares trade above $400 dollars at any point this year, including pre-market opens, post-market closes, etc. Will verify with a Bloomberg terminal at end of year.
2023-11-20T08:02:27
2023-12-30T06:19:08
2023-12-30T06:19:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6wByj0DLe7ZnDolYMIn1
Will there be a merger of Microsoft's new advanced AI research team and OpenAI?
By the end of 2024.
2023-11-20T07:59:58
2025-01-01T01:29:00
2025-01-25T15:28:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iHPZXjrsAu1d3OIy2Nfs
Would OpenAI have less than 100 employees by the end of the year?
Full time employees.
2023-11-20T07:49:16
2024-01-01T01:01:01
2024-01-01T01:01:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-cv8cCSqjMH2ZzTbMOiEN
Will ChatGPT remain operational through December 31, 2023?
Temporary outages or maintenance periods are not considered interruptions, provided they do not exceed 24 consecutive hours
2023-11-20T07:46:23
2024-01-01T00:42:14
2024-01-01T00:42:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-romK7KODpuuQcyHtkIij
Will OpenAI exist as an independent entity by 2025?
This prediction will resolve "yes" iff OpenAI's for-profit arm still exists, and is still under the majority control of the nonprofit by January 1, 2025. It will resolve "no" if: OpenAI is dissolved, goes bankrupt, or is formally acquired by another entity (They are gone) Another entity acquires a majority controlling interest in either the nonprofit or the for-profit (They are no longer independent, formally) The leadership of either entity is replaced in such a way that there is broad consensus that their actions are being directed by a third-party (They are no longer independent, informally)
2023-11-20T07:45:15
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-02-16T02:06:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fNGbt4UvSNde6qQVEGDd
Will google GEMINI model be released within 24 hours?
Time starts NOW (creation of this market).
2023-11-20T07:21:32
2023-11-21T07:21:00
2023-11-21T07:21:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jGOInIrEkONho5HOfU8v
Will inflation in Argentina be less than 30% for 2024?
This will be based on official INDEC data, based on the Year-over-Year inflation from Dec 2024 compared to Dec 2023. This will presumably be reported in the report released in Jan 2025. For reference, this is the latest report as of this writing: https://www.indec.gob.ar/uploads/informesdeprensa/ipc_11_231B28D924C4.pdf This question will not resolve Yes early. It will resolve No early if the following conditions are met: Inflation YTD exceeds 30% as of a given month, as does total YTD as of resolve time. The inflation in the following month (after breaking 30% YTD) is positive. The market has been consistently trading at or above 97% for at least a week. In my judgment there are no weird shenanigans going on and this early-resolve criteria still looks reasonable. If there are weird inflation / deflation things going on I'll bias toward waiting. Hopefully that allows a good mix of adequate patience and resolving correctly, while also allowing an early resolution if the result is clear in advance.
2023-11-20T07:11:31
2024-04-20T14:07:38
2024-04-20T14:07:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uGbuwoLXTH1yp0ldw3au
Will there be another significant change at OpenAI by Thanksgiving? (Altman, board, etc.)
Will there be a significant leadership change (from where it is Monday morning 11/20, 9:30am EST) in OpenAI before Thanksgiving? Significant leadership changes includes JUST the following: the interim CEO being replaced, the interim CEO promoted to full-time CEO, a co-CEO being added, a board member leaving, or a board member being added. Basically any of the very top level leadership being altered in any way. Board members who are added but have no voting power will NOT count. Market ends Wednesday at 11:59pm EST.
2023-11-20T06:32:16
2023-11-22T20:59:00
2023-11-23T19:35:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0m78jFaogezdl29r8qls
Will the board RESIGN? (OpenAI)
This market asks the question of whether the board of OpenAI will resign (all remaining members) by the end of November 2023. Timezone: Pacific. Clarifications: This includes all the members, which is equal to 4 at the time of creation of market - Adam, tasha, helen, Ilya. All of them must resign from the board for it to count. Replacement of a subset of board doesn't count as board being replaced. This is about resignation from the board, not from openai. People can be employed by OpenAI even after resigning from the board, as we saw with Greg Brockman, the chairman of openAI board.
2023-11-20T06:15:22
2023-12-01T00:00:00
2023-12-01T05:23:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-r4nF2s2RcNInxLrmoqlp
Will Emmett Shear have more than 150,000 followers on X by New Years Eve?
Poll will resolve Jan 1st
2023-11-20T03:59:58
2024-01-01T22:59:00
2024-01-02T21:44:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MytPLaXaPOdWyXssLO4F
Congress hopes to pass Israel and Ukraine funding by Christmas. But will it? Hmmmm
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/congress-hopes-to-pass-israel-ukraine-supplemental-aid-by-christmas-full-panel-198252613622
2023-11-20T03:51:57
2023-12-14T09:03:35
2023-12-14T09:03:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ckgln8p6kaNo0Ky6Xxyt
Will there be a large (>10%) exodus of OpenAI employees following Sam Altman and Greg Brockman's departure (within 3mo)?
This market will resolve to YES if a reputable news outlet publishes an article on the departure of many employees (>10%) following their departure by the end of February 2024. It will resolve to NO if no news about a large number of employees leave. According to Wikipedia's page of OpenAI, as of November 18th there were roughly 700 employees (https://web.archive.org/web/20231118224136/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/18/technology/open-ai-sam-altman-what-happened.html). If 70+ employees leave following their departure, the market will resolve to YES.
2023-11-20T03:46:46
2024-02-29T07:59:00
2024-02-29T08:19:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-a1jxbLPljn6z9iTA0r8X
Will Argentina dollarize its economy before the end of 2024?
The question Context The proposal to dolarize Argentina's economy has been brought to the forefront by presidential candidate Javier Milei. He argues that dollarization would end the country's inflation problem and proposes demolishing the Central Bank. However, economists and analysts have raised concerns about such a move's feasibility, potential risks, and benefits. The political landscape, economic conditions, and social implications make this a complex and contentious issue. Resolution Criteria The prediction market will resolve in favour of "Yes" if Argentina officially adopts the U.S. dollar as its primary currency, replacing the Argentine peso, before the end of the year 2024.
2023-11-20T01:22:21
2024-12-31T13:59:00
2025-01-02T02:17:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-aa5tZQ6Lo2UkbXDRVNv2
Will OpenAI continue to run ChatGPT (or something substantially similar to it) in January 2025?
Can I go to their website and expect to type in a query and have it work >50% of the time, after 2024 ends. If open AI officially sunsets it then we can resolve early.
2023-11-20T01:15:49
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-21T05:07:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-liAEcKN6ojs18BXwUbB2
Will MSFT appreciate 5+% today compared to Friday?
I'll compare the closing price on Friday (17th) with the closing price today.
2023-11-20T01:04:50
2023-11-20T13:59:25
2023-11-20T13:59:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Rtl1arwAqTmShuDMTCpz
Will there be another sudden dramatic announcement about OpenAI or Microsoft before November 24?
Things that have qualified so far: Firing Sam Altman. Being in talks to rehire Sam Altman. Actually not rehiring Sam Altman after all.
2023-11-20T00:45:42
2023-11-21T22:29:21
2023-11-21T22:29:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-r6hCqegF7aRViURVKybq
Will Andrej Karpathy leave OpenAI by end 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-20T00:29:47
2024-02-14T00:21:24
2024-02-14T00:21:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tbC7PmfSgm9qiwils0fj
Will Mira Murati leave OpenAI this week?
Resolves to YES if there is an announcement that Mira Murati is leaving OpenAI by the end of this week (11/25/2023 at 11:59 PM, Pacific Time). Otherwise, resolves to NO.
2023-11-19T23:25:27
2023-11-25T23:59:00
2023-11-26T00:01:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rqnhfKopjSw8xR0988ov
Will Emmett Shear be working for OpenAI On Feb 1, 2024?
employee or on the board
2023-11-19T22:34:00
2024-02-01T23:59:00
2024-02-05T08:40:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f7rOWVWwcZHmNWNjdlVr
Will GPT5 be available in ChatGPT before June 30th 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T21:59:15
2024-06-30T14:59:00
2024-06-30T19:45:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hN9Yk36DDtS3Ywd7qprD
Will Ilya Sutskever be working on xGrok (or it's successor) by end 2024?
Resolves as YES if Ilya Sutskever is confirmed to be working with Elon Musk's "Grok" AI. “The key moment was recruiting Ilya Sutskever” to OpenAI, Musk said of breaking his friendship with Google cofounder Larry Page. https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2023/11/18/elon-musk-ilya-sutskever-openai-leadership-upheaval-sam-altman/amp/ [image]
2023-11-19T21:46:38
2024-12-31T07:59:00
2025-01-19T07:03:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-78SdIQ9uBAestBPnl834
Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI by the eoY 2023
If Greg Brockman returns to Open AI by the end of 2023, the market will resolve to YES. Else, NO. He announced his resignation earlier in this tweet. [image]
2023-11-19T21:38:11
2023-11-22T17:42:07
2023-11-22T17:42:07
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UYHkG2kxmtjNNnxApZ1F
Will Sam Altman be CEO again by 21st November 2023?
Resolves at midnight PST.
2023-11-19T20:16:20
2023-11-21T20:59:00
2023-11-22T20:55:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C2TFn37fixhOoUpSLdy5
Will Starship launch in November 2024
Will Starship launch in November 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:52:05
2024-11-19T14:51:14
2024-11-19T14:51:14
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-V6grLvSj7cdLJpaRQhVe
Will Starship launch in October 2024
Will Starship launch in October 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:51:47
2024-10-13T07:07:51
2024-10-13T07:07:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ahaC9QuvZ1G7sq4QIwRP
Will Starship launch in September 2024
Will Starship launch in September 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:51:27
2024-10-01T20:59:00
2024-10-01T21:47:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ctRUgnICri6qlcTTZZhT
Will Starship launch in August 2024
Will Starship launch in August 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:51:10
2024-09-01T20:59:00
2024-09-01T21:58:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-c8CDUOgljTy0Iz0HAkcX
Will Starship launch in July 2024
Will Starship launch in July 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:50:49
2024-08-01T20:59:00
2024-08-01T21:04:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-TsoaRdlCfVjSU4qtvegS
Will Starship launch in June 2024
Will Starship launch in June 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:50:31
2024-06-06T18:54:51
2024-06-06T18:54:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lk0S1E06jSkElElVb0Om
Will Starship launch in May 2024
Will Starship launch in May 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:50:11
2024-06-01T20:59:00
2024-06-01T21:07:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CDbhNXocSpSqmKgteZoM
Will Starship launch in April 2024
Will Starship launch in April 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X or Youtube "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES Related: https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:49:49
2024-04-30T20:26:14
2024-04-30T20:26:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WIMxbSddBuZF10yo8loM
Will Starship launch in March 2024
Will Starship launch in March 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X.com or youtube.com "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:44:50
2024-03-14T07:24:39
2024-03-14T07:24:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-rZctGtA62d0PbLrN2Ywp
Will Starship launch in February 2024
Will Starship launch in February 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X.com or youtube.com "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:44:20
2024-03-01T15:16:56
2024-03-01T15:16:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kvk7PJbRQTYwOyugVZRX
Will Starship launch in January 2024
Will Starship launch in January 2024 Launch Attempt from Boca Chica Tx. Can blow up on pad etc.. Needs a Live stream up on X.com or youtube.com "Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines. If the livestream opens and the starship stays on the ground (Scrub), this will resolve as NO if the livestream opens and the starship "LAUNCHES" (see above definition) this will resolve as YES https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-january-202 [Here] https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-february-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-march-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-april-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-may-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-june-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-july-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-august-2024 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-september-2 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-october-202 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-november-20 https://manifold.markets/Blomfilter/will-starship-launch-in-december-20
2023-11-19T18:43:55
2024-02-01T17:46:09
2024-02-01T17:46:09
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xQXIFF7KT1SPMbPCI5Aj
Will the OpenAI Board of Directors be given yet another deadline ultimatum to bring back Sam Altman?
The employees threatened to resign unless Sam was back by 5 PM Saturday. Then Sam threatened to walk unless they had brought himb ack by 5 PM Sunday. If there is a third similar deadline threat to the BOD by market close, this market resolves Yes. Otherwise it resolves No.
2023-11-19T18:23:22
2023-11-26T23:59:00
2023-11-27T15:27:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0Vpjmzk55C29et5V614R
NFL🏈: Week 12 - Will the Minnesota Vikings win then MNF NFL Game against the Chicago Bears on 11/27
Resolved based on Game Day Score. Will close all bets at 8:00pm PACIFIC
2023-11-19T18:22:46
2023-11-27T20:00:00
2023-11-27T21:01:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SyzZlhw70afwQ4Vb1yT8
NFL🏈: Week 12 - Will the Philadelphia Eagles win their NFL Game against the Buffalo Bill on 11/26?
REsolved based on Game Day Score. Closes @ 4:15 PM Pacific
2023-11-19T18:19:56
2023-11-26T16:15:00
2023-11-26T17:07:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xC13GlCxvyiiNrotjkDY
Will abortion be restricted in Argentina in 2024?
Resolves YES if any federal abortion restrictions are passed in Argentina in 2024. Resolves NO if not.
2023-11-19T17:45:17
2024-12-31T17:18:46
2024-12-31T17:18:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-i33Feyr5xZcqyfKi6QmX
Will Sam Altman and the OpenAI board reach a deal by the 5pm pacific deadline today?
Has to be a full deal where a new board is selected, Altman agrees to return. Altman set a deadline of 5pm pacific (that's 12 minutes from market open). EDIT: TBC, if I don't see a definitive report one way or the other by ~530 pacific on what happened, this probably does not resolve until tomorrow AM.
2023-11-19T16:48:36
2023-11-19T20:59:00
2023-11-20T03:46:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WL4kCHa6ujMqdo81IyQs
Will Nikki Haley win the South Carolina Republican primary?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T16:18:01
2024-02-24T19:17:34
2024-02-24T19:17:34
no
MANIFOLD
mani-czOKoTeJ0QSq7YKXIZmr
Ilya Sutskever joins Deepmind by EOY 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T15:00:10
2024-12-31T05:00:00
2025-01-03T10:10:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Vj0cmJ53FwuUtgN7OSPK
Will the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge (rail bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
Resolves to YES if at any time in 2024 the Kerch Strait Rail Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than 48 hours.
2023-11-19T13:38:19
2025-01-03T19:26:18
2025-01-03T19:26:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4Isg0WZbDkyHOVbYHAPQ
Will the Kerch Strait Road Bridge (road bridge from Russia to Crimea) be rendered inoperable in 2024?
Resolves to YES if at any time in 2024 the Kerch Strait Road Bridge ends up in a state in which it cannot be used for more than 48 hours.
2023-11-19T13:36:25
2025-01-05T14:59:00
2025-01-06T14:31:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-z46pFYNn8R9LzR0mftF4
Will microsoft effectively have a board seat on OpenAI's non-profit board of directors in 2023?
>=1
2023-11-19T12:15:55
2023-11-29T17:30:42
2023-11-29T17:30:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-MJD3SlKBhnnwp76j6SUB
Will Max Verstappen win the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
Will Max win the main race in Abu Dhabi?
2023-11-19T11:36:33
2023-11-26T12:23:25
2023-11-26T12:23:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-351s0KpHj8CPoB7YX85a
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #5 Florida State beat Florida?
2023-11-25 at 7 PM ET in Gainesville, FL. Line: Florida +9. Head-to-head: Overall: Florida State 28, Florida 37, Tie 2 Last 5: Florida State 2, Florida 3, Tie 0
2023-11-19T11:05:58
2023-11-25T19:44:27
2023-11-25T19:44:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FIn564PqfOSG2cjEtePK
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #8 Alabama beat Auburn?
2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Auburn, AL. Line: Auburn +14. Head-to-head: Overall: Alabama 48, Auburn 32, Tie 1 Last 5: Alabama 4, Auburn 1, Tie 0
2023-11-19T11:05:12
2023-11-25T16:04:06
2023-11-25T16:04:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-F6zbtT7DsIn5mtnk1anV
Will Sam Altman sign a formal agreement to return to OpenAI as described below before NYSE opens Monday?
Whether or not OpenAI changes its name. In any capacity including board member, consultant, forms or joins new company that's a vendor or partner to OpenAI. From comments: Resolves YES if evidence or reliable reporting a contract has been signed.
2023-11-19T11:04:27
2023-11-27T06:30:00
2023-11-27T20:01:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Rfc0Gbd8Dw1XWaqYrsEh
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will BYU beat #21 Oklahoma State?
2023-11-25 at 3:30 PM ET in Stillwater, OK. Head-to-head: Overall: BYU 0, Oklahoma State 2, Tie 0
2023-11-19T11:02:26
2023-11-25T16:36:06
2023-11-25T16:36:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CAycRBh5314xbcPnT5rS
Will Donald Trump do any debates prior to the Presidential election 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T10:59:51
2024-07-04T19:22:02
2024-07-04T19:22:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WkAoKWEnb0d3YHCCHjXf
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #2 Ohio State beat #3 Michigan?
2023-11-25 at 12 PM ET in Ann Arbor, MI. Line: Michigan -4. Head-to-head: Overall: Ohio State 52, Michigan 60, Tie 6 Last 5: Ohio State 3, Michigan 2, Tie 0
2023-11-19T10:58:50
2023-11-25T12:41:52
2023-11-25T12:41:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1KdEINP0XeVkgLaTSJse
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Texas A&M beat #14 LSU?
2023-11-25 at 12 PM ET in Baton Rouge, LA. Line: LSU -9.5. Head-to-head: Overall: Texas A&M 22, LSU 35, Tie 3 Last 5: Texas A&M 3, LSU 2, Tie 0
2023-11-19T10:57:53
2023-11-25T12:28:12
2023-11-25T12:28:12
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YUmnzHoxmrJG7l6OlCrs
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #20 Iowa beat Nebraska?
2023-11-24 at 12 PM ET in Lincoln, NE. Head-to-head: Overall: Iowa 17, Nebraska 26, Tie 1 Last 5: Iowa 4, Nebraska 1, Tie 0
2023-11-19T10:28:12
2023-11-24T12:26:35
2023-11-24T12:26:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-8I3Tz0YbDt87hWV9e39B
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #12 Ole Miss beat Mississippi State?
2023-11-23 at 7:30 PM ET in Starkville, MS. Line: Mississippi State +1.5. Head-to-head: Overall: Ole Miss 64, Mississippi State 47, Tie 5 Last 5: Ole Miss 2, Mississippi State 3, Tie 0
2023-11-19T10:27:56
2023-11-23T20:30:00
2023-11-23T21:30:22
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cVGsbvbfV9OQ9peYXKYn
If Sam Altman returns as OpenAI CEO, will Ilya Sutskever leave the board? (By end-of-year)
If Sam Altman does not become the CEO of OpenAI again at some point by the end of the year, this resolves N/A. Otherwise, this will resolve based on whether Ilya Sutskever leaves the OpenAI board at any time by the end of the year. Here is a Sankey diagram of this and some related markets: (https://juliushege.com/altman/)
2023-11-19T08:43:38
2023-11-30T02:24:28
2023-11-30T02:24:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-seQvrB3r5inYBEZHXf7U
Will Artemis 2 be launched before the end of 2024?
The mission is currently planned for a November 2024 launch. However, recycling and refurbishing components from Orion that flew on Artemis 1 may push this back to later in 2024 or the first quarter of 2025.
2023-11-19T07:57:32
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-20T15:08:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-wmHwynH1oUxXj09d93Ij
Will Mark Zuckerberg stay Meta's CEO through 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T07:28:59
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-03T11:11:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-2EcILdE9cY2EqHgkDCJN
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Russel qualify in a higher position than Hamilton at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix?
Resolves YES if George Russel outqualifies Lewis Hamilton during qualifying at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Yas Marina). If he has a later grid penalty that moves him down the order, the market will still resolve YES - it is just based on qualifying times. Lap time deletions will count towards the market - for example if George Russel outqualifies Hamilton but has a lap time deletion that puts his actual new time behind Hamilton, the market will resolve NO.
2023-11-19T07:28:40
2023-11-25T06:43:06
2023-11-25T06:45:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-BXxtOsCLwM4mb2buBzID
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will any driver from the Top 5 constructors be eliminated in Q1 during qualifying at Abu Dhabi?
Resolves YES if any driver from Red Bull, Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin are unable to make it into Q2 during qualifying at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Yas Marina). If there is a replacement/reserve driver for any of these five teams, and that driver fails to get into Q2, market will still resolve YES. If a driver from one of the top 5 constructors never starts qualifying (the car never exits the garage during the session), the market will not resolve YES, and will continue. If there is an issue that forces a car to retire from the top 5 teams after they've left the garage (and had to immediately retire for example) the market would resolve YES.
2023-11-19T07:25:18
2023-11-25T06:26:09
2023-11-25T06:26:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-TRS4kt8H5BRw5WIWAzhK
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will the gap between 1st and 2nd in qualifying be 0.1 seconds or less at the Abu Dhabi GP?
Resolves YES if the gap between the driver on pole and the driver qualifying in 2nd is 0.1 seconds or lower at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Yas Marina).
2023-11-19T07:19:40
2023-11-25T07:03:52
2023-11-25T07:03:52
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NIXZvLu1AtocMY5d8Et8
[2023 Formula 1 Season] Will Max Verstappen qualify first, win the race, and have the fastest lap at the Abu Dhabi GP?
Resolves YES if Max Verstappen qualifies on pole, then goes onto win the race, and finishes with the fastest lap. Resolves NO if he does not accomplish all three. Will still resolve YES if Verstappen qualifies first, but has a grid penalty (new engine, etc) for the starting order on Sunday, and goes onto win and take the fastest lap. Resolves N/A if Verstappen is unable to attend qualifying, or has a DNS issue on race day.
2023-11-19T07:16:02
2023-11-26T06:53:06
2023-11-26T06:53:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-sLzKkjyBQQoTusUCGMny
Restructuring at OpenAI so it's fully commercial by mid 2024
Somewhat hard to measure; basically if OpenAI is restructured so it's more like a normal company without a nonprofit board able to block things then YES. If there is restructuring but doubt on how serious it is, we'll judge base on the goal of this market being to find out if the original non-profit, basically charity-like structure is legally eliminated. For simplicity, I'm actually requiring a structure change here. Something like "six pet board members permanently installed who will do whatever Sam or Satya says" does not count.
2023-11-19T06:55:33
2024-06-30T22:21:33
2024-06-30T22:21:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ftTQ3kFogiG9c0nSF6Xj
OpenAI board announces a "concerning jump in capabilities" by Dec 1
Any one of them, and the announcement can use different words.
2023-11-19T06:48:14
2023-12-01T23:59:00
2023-12-03T18:53:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LHPfN890zLFwctQ2PjX4
Will OpenAI's structure change?
OpenAI is structured as follows currently: [image]If this structure changes, then this market resolves to YES. That includes addition of new entities, removal of existing entities, dissolving of the company etc. You can read more about OpenAI's structure in their post https://openai.com/our-structure This market will resolve by the end of 2024.
2023-11-19T05:44:39
2024-12-31T00:29:00
2025-02-04T20:43:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-1nnNaQPBzJDDkik65sXo
If Sam Altman rejoins OpenAI, as CEO or not, would he be given a seat at the board of the 501(c)(3) non-profit?
This market asks the question of whether Altman will be a board member of the 501(c)(3) OpenAI which controls the for-profit company knows as OpenAI. If Sam Altman has not joined OpenAI a year from now, the market will resolve N/A. If he joins OpenAI as the CEO, for a YES resolution, he must be given the seat at the board within a week of joining.
2023-11-19T05:24:55
2023-12-04T14:51:00
2023-12-04T14:51:00
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hHf9uM5S2jmq3G20Efiv
If Sam Altman returns to OpenAI, would he join as the CEO?
Only counts the role he is given upon joining openAI full time. Resolves No if he joins as a consultant, as CTO, or any other role not CEO. If they do away with the CEO role altogether, then N/A
2023-11-19T03:13:10
2023-11-29T17:22:06
2023-11-29T17:22:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Cjc9jjkQvT0hBWFGoaN7
Will the front line in Ukraine change significantly in 2024?
Will the territory controlled by Ukraine/Russia change significantly at any time before January 1, 2025? This would include major territorial gains or capture of important cities/objects. Possible examples: Russian capture of Zaporizhzhia/Kherson, Ukrainian Capture of Melitopol. Not sufficient: capture of cities like Bakhmut (little strategic importance or territorial gains). The resolution will be subjective to a degree, feel free to ask about any particular cases. There are quite a few discussions on individual cases in the comments of previous markets. UPDATE: The explanation for the resolution is in the comments. See also: [markets]Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): The territory changes will be compared to the situation at the start of 2024. The advance near Pokrovsk is confirmed to not qualify as it does not constitute major territorial gains or capture of significant cities/objects. Possible clarification from creator (AI generated): A territorial gain of around 12,000 km² (like the Kharkiv counteroffensive) would qualify as significant Capturing 1/3 of a region would qualify as a major territorial gain Update 2025-03-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Territorial changes are measured against the status at the start of 2024. A significant change requires either: A territorial gain of approximately 12,000 km², similar to the Kharkiv counteroffensive. Capturing one-third of a region. Capturing individual towns does not qualify unless they are of major importance, such as Kherson or Zaporizhzhia.
2023-11-19T02:02:39
2025-01-02T14:59:00
2025-01-03T05:52:10
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iv6JDr7iuMl4zswFMZZd
Will Elon Musk be the richest person in the world at the end of 2024?
It will be resolved based on Forbes Billionare list (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/) on 1st of January 2025.
2023-11-19T00:06:34
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-01T01:32:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QuD28aMW2wOwgdMDdDpP
Will https://openai.com post another page refering to a change in leadership in some way by the end of November 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-19T00:06:15
2023-11-29T17:26:41
2023-11-29T17:26:41
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JUuFeCC4wZQ4KVfM4xGH
Will Greg Brockman return to the board of OpenAI (the non-profit), by the end of 2023?
This is the structure - the board of directors controls the non-profit [image]
2023-11-19T00:03:40
2023-12-31T23:19:27
2023-12-31T23:19:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pawv5wsVF186QNCXP9QX
Will Ilya Sutskever no longer be working at OpenAI (the for profit company) by the end of 2023?
If he is not a full time employee, this will resolve yes. A consultant doesn't count.
2023-11-19T00:02:08
2023-12-31T23:18:43
2023-12-31T23:18:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-jJM9mWZ7NH0NAf99jATj
Will Ilya Sutskever no longer be working at OpenAI (the for profit company) by the end of November 2023?
If he is not a full time employee, this will resolve yes. A consultant doesn't count.
2023-11-19T00:01:49
2023-12-01T06:45:00
2023-12-01T12:03:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-t4i4F3xvxboEOndo1sh6
Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of November, 2023?
For any length of time, even if they're removed again shortly afterwards.
2023-11-18T23:56:47
2023-11-29T17:24:01
2023-11-29T17:24:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3RMAHTwyxV66ewG7acG9
Will the US successfully broker a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by the end of 2023?
This market seeks predictions on the likelihood of the US mediating a successful ceasefire between Israel and Hamas by December 31, 2023. Amidst ongoing conflict and regional instability, US diplomatic intervention is pivotal. Participants are asked to consider the current political climate, diplomatic efforts, and historical precedents when making their predictions.
2023-11-18T22:51:35
2024-01-10T14:19:21
2024-08-31T01:04:48
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LfSjbN8DAnzFkT3aSH84
Will Ilya Sutskever leave OpenAI by January 1st, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T21:59:32
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-03T06:53:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FCmxM7XOM237Y98o4C41
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will SMU beat #23 Tulane in the AAC championship game?
2023-12-02 at 4 PM ET in New Orleans, LA. Line: Tulane -4.
2023-11-18T21:06:20
2023-12-02T16:47:35
2023-12-02T16:47:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-byULT2j6xGXUlc8L0Pk1
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Troy beat Appalachian State in the Sun Belt championship game?
2023-12-02 at 4 PM ET in Troy, AL. Line: Troy -6.5.
2023-11-18T21:02:25
2023-12-02T16:32:25
2023-12-02T16:32:25
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nyVqYbXabarLoS760ofc
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #4 Washington beat #6 Oregon in the Pac-12 championship game?
2023-12-01 at 8 PM ET in Las Vegas, NV. Line: Oregon -9.5.
2023-11-18T20:52:42
2023-12-01T20:44:53
2023-12-01T20:44:53
yes
MANIFOLD