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forecasting

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mani-kpJ3ap4VAuhseHqOM1dM
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Miami (OH) beat Toledo in the MAC championship game?
2023-12-02 at 12 PM ET in Detroit, MI. Line: Toledo -8.
2023-11-18T20:46:14
2023-12-02T12:47:47
2023-12-02T12:47:47
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RrYIOaGgVMa90tJ5txPo
Sam Altman will return to OpenAI by the end of Nov 2023
Time: Nov 30 23:59, PST
2023-11-18T20:44:48
2023-11-30T07:59:00
2023-11-30T08:26:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IZVgNzmgUHk1oVBPJEra
GPT-5 will be announced in 3 months (Feb 2024)
Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly announced (blog/paper) before Feb 19, 2024; resolves NO otherwise.
2023-11-18T20:39:47
2024-02-19T07:59:00
2024-02-20T03:21:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IyAhMgReT02biT0Uvam0
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #1 Georgia beat #8 Alabama in the SEC championship game?
2023-12-02 at 4 PM ET in Atlanta, GA. Line: Georgia -5.
2023-11-18T20:38:46
2023-12-02T16:25:06
2023-12-02T16:25:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uBwmzpJJP8SGhqYDdlqz
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #7 Texas beat #20 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game?
2023-12-02 at 12 PM ET in Arlington, TX. Line: Texas -14.
2023-11-18T20:33:53
2023-12-02T12:39:06
2023-12-02T12:39:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ov3aa7WcW3RIXaFtjsuI
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #17 Iowa beat #3 Michigan in the Big Ten championship game?
2023-12-02 at 8 PM ET in Indianapolis, IN. Line: Michigan -23.
2023-11-18T20:29:50
2023-12-02T20:42:26
2023-12-02T20:42:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7LM6vzgZJXwxZOOChrmS
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #10 Louisville beat #5 Florida State in the ACC championship game?
2023-12-02 at 8 PM ET in Charlotte, NC. Line: Florida State -3.5.
2023-11-18T20:25:45
2023-12-02T20:42:55
2023-12-02T20:42:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uA14WKMZ0Cclo2UB231P
Will Sam Altman be reinstated as CEO of OpenAI by Sunday, November 19th?
Resolves at midnight PST.
2023-11-18T19:29:09
2023-11-19T23:38:01
2023-11-19T23:38:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-o8oY36PUebifVpMJNveU
Will Mira Murati leave OpenAI by EOY 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T19:24:57
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T06:37:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qi4zTpcywW5ET3lqcN1R
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T16:49:30
2023-11-30T05:32:53
2023-11-30T05:32:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mNPwgY49FlRk9Vqnv8UZ
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI?
There has been internal discussion saying OpenAI is talking about bringing Altman back
2023-11-18T16:42:33
2023-11-30T22:53:55
2023-11-30T22:53:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-EF43yaN8teb3WAgieWRU
Will any of Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley, Adam D'Angelo, or Ilya Sutskever be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1/1/2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T15:59:33
2023-12-31T23:18:16
2023-12-31T23:18:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-L5oEppRGy4qVCn6oSeS9
Will Ilya Sutskever be working at OpenAI on January 1st 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T15:58:06
2023-12-31T21:05:06
2023-12-31T21:05:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tI0SmMHzn0nMUbXo21rm
[Metaculus] Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19998/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as OpenAI's CEO and returns to the position before January 1, 2026. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-18T15:52:25
2023-11-30T10:17:57
2023-11-30T10:17:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-LUEwWEp3kG5RXjjODReC
At EOY 2024, will both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever be at OpenAI?
Reasoning for making this is that it seems that it would be hard for both Sam and Ilya to coexist at the same company given what happened. Resolves yes if both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever are at OpenAI
2023-11-18T15:48:05
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-04T02:55:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Gl9LlgwsZuAkRywXds39
Will Sam Altman die before the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T15:40:43
2024-01-06T20:59:00
2024-01-13T01:19:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-BfxZdvFPssQMP5s6BcKh
Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2024?
For any length of time, even if they're removed again shortly afterwards.
2023-11-18T15:09:42
2023-11-29T22:36:04
2023-11-29T22:36:04
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lPlllRcukKrAPm2l6k4M
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI?
[image]If Sam Altman returns to OpenAI under any position by the eOY, this market will resolve to a YES.
2023-11-18T15:05:29
2023-11-29T18:00:57
2023-11-29T18:00:57
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RMYGOXS2359HGcoFH3Ft
Will Sam Altman return as OpenAI CEO in the next 6 months?
https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo
2023-11-18T15:04:54
2023-12-31T07:39:06
2023-12-31T07:39:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-dOHZeGGEgXaycq0zxt9I
Will Trump win the US Presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T14:59:29
2024-11-06T15:37:51
2024-11-06T15:37:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7Ivp1T8xhilxRhjguGz7
Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2024.
This resolves as yes if Starship launches from the Americas and crosses the 180th meridian before landing, crashing, or breaking up. For example, launching in an Easterly direction from Texas and breaking up on reentry near Hawaii would qualify. I created this market because of uncertainty about what constitutes "going into orbit" if Starship completes less than one revolution around the earth. UTC is used to determine the end of Q2 2024. The quarter ends at midnight on June 30. If there is a difference between the date line and the 180th meridian, it is the 180th meridian that applies. If debris from a breakup falls on both sides, I will attempt to determine where the majority by weight landed. The fate of the Superheavy booster is not taken into account. See also the same question for end of 2024: https://manifold.markets/ErikCorry/will-spacexs-starship-cross-the-int-f7e3df222a16
2023-11-18T13:08:39
2024-07-02T15:00:23
2024-07-02T15:00:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RJOJJF95YVTz1sQpdMNL
Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released?
Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5 Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release
2023-11-18T12:32:35
2025-03-07T11:45:46
2025-03-07T11:45:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-H9P08MvGEMeWUbR1Us46
[Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19824/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal Court brings charges against Benjamin Netanyahu. Per the Rome Statute—the founding statute of the ICC—the court may bring charges within the following categories: Genocide Crimes against humanity War crimes Crimes of aggression Offences against the administration of justice The ICC announcing either an indictment, summons, or an arrest warrant is sufficient for a Yes resolution. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-18T12:03:19
2024-11-23T02:23:01
2024-11-23T02:23:01
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-VrvGCYkLnwGU2bYaobW4
Will Matt Levine mention Everything Is Securities Fraud in relation to Sam Altman in Money Stuff over the next week?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T11:54:47
2023-11-25T23:59:00
2023-11-26T00:19:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2oHCTZfNOvFMTbJmjfCx
[Metaculus] Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Greg Brockman are either: Cofounders of a new company that aims to train foundation models Employees of an existing company that aims to train foundation models That company must not be OpenAI. They must both be cofounders or employees at the same company. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-18T11:51:51
2025-01-02T11:00:00
2025-01-03T03:42:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-p7xWuQ25WbiqDWjmrkzU
Will Sam Altman start a new company by the end of 2023
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-18T11:48:58
2024-01-01T20:59:00
2024-01-08T11:36:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pSE8S6oBQ2MxC58Chhfu
Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024?
Resolves based on my sole judgement, which will be based on my best reading of the general consensus (rather than my personal feelings about OpenAI)
2023-11-18T11:25:13
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2025-01-11T09:52:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-C9WPhSwOTjF8its7RTPf
Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 11 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Chiefs win No - Eagles win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-11-18T11:22:18
2023-11-20T20:30:50
2023-11-20T20:31:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9owKN1EUfDOxHKf33JPx
Will the Denver Broncos beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 11 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Broncos win No - Vikings win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-11-18T11:19:57
2023-11-19T20:46:17
2023-11-19T20:46:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5edOcHjoJJkqNg8LsZm5
Was Sam Altman fired because the board suspected he'd created an undisclosed AGI?
This question resolves in November of 2024, as such information may take some time to break. If the Q* story turns out to be true and reporting and/or quotes from one or more board members indicates the board was specifically concerned that Q* represented an AGI this market will resolve to yes.
2023-11-18T10:37:07
2024-11-25T20:59:00
2024-11-26T07:33:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZoJQDVLp6yZm8PVLJSif
Will Microsoft file any lawsuit over OpenAI's termination of Sam Altman, before the end of 2024?
The market resolves to "YES" if a reputable source confirms that Microsoft has filed any lawsuit that is directly related to the OpenAI's "leadership transition" (i.e. firing Sam Altman) before the end of 2024. It resolves to "NO" if there is no such reputable source. Background: According to Axios, Microsoft has invested billions in OpenAI, yet had no influence over the board's choice to remove their CEO, and was not even warned in advance. The price of $MSFT dropped after the announcement, and Satya Nadella released a statement affirming their continued support for the partnership. Given the enormous stake of their investment, it is reasonable to think that they will explore all possible legal options. There are some other markets based on the possibility of a lawsuit, but they seem to focus on Sam Altman as the target. This market is specifically concerned with the legal actions taken by Microsoft, but it includes any potential targets (e.g. OpenAI, individual board members, Sam, etc). If you have any questions about the resolution criteria in specific cases, please comment below, and I'll answer to the best of my ability. [image]
2023-11-18T09:57:07
2025-02-02T07:52:08
2025-02-02T07:52:08
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ea4hpEAwkkiirfTA4xxD
[Metaculus] Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?
Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19898/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024. Whether or not the price is at or above $40,000 at the end of the year does not matter. This question resolves solely on the basis of whether BTC reaches or exceeds the $40,000 threshold. The primary resolution source is CoinMarketCap. If the resolution source is unavailable, other comparable sources may be used. However, if sources disagree, CoinMarketCap is the primary source. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-18T07:51:48
2023-12-03T14:59:50
2023-12-03T14:59:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-N7AJ4ywGsD1IoaKDCZ0w
Will Sam Altman or Greg Brockman join X AI by 11:59pm 31st December 2024
If either Sam Altman or Greg Brockman join X AI as an employee before the end of 2024 this question resolves to yes.
2023-11-18T07:20:42
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-02-01T23:04:46
no
MANIFOLD
mani-7M4QoYMj5o5hOY2sCS3y
Will Israel Take the Khan Younis City Hall by December 15th?
This is a market on whether the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will take possession of the Khan Younis City Hall in southern Gaza (also called municipality; located at: 31°20'39.0"N 34°18'34.5"E) according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) by December 15th. A link to the ISW's map is here. The area of the map including the Khan Younis City Hall must be shaded light blue, the color indicating "Reported Israeli Clearing Operations". Note that "Claimed Israeli Further Advances" will not count as Israeli control. If the ISW's map doesn't exist this will resolve according to other ISW reporting or, if the ISW does not comment on it, based on other credible news sources. If no credible sources report that the city hall in Khan Younis has been taken, the market resolves to "No". This market will resolve based on the Insight Prediction market here: https://insightprediction.com/m/247060/will-israel-take-khan-younis-city-hall-by-december-15th
2023-11-18T05:26:26
2023-12-16T12:29:40
2023-12-16T12:29:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-2jWliY1V38RWSuiDpDup
Will a new state be recognised by the UN anywhere in Palestine before the end of 2024?
Resolution YES means that the new state is either a member state of the UN, or that they are defined as a “state party” (in the same way that collective Palestine is currently) as according to this article (ignoring plagiarism or incorrect edits ) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition?wprov=sfti1# Palestine refers to only current Gaza and the [occupied] West Bank in the context of this question
2023-11-18T05:24:20
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-01T21:00:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FgRgXGPmaAnLnSuHlFHS
Will Karpathy publicly express support for Sam and/or Greg on Twitter?
Resolution Criteria The market resolves positively if Karpathy makes a clear statement of support in a tweet before end of the month. The statement must be unambiguous in its support. Background [image]Sam was fired. Greg resigned. Many have spoken in support such as Brian. I wonder what Karpathy thinks. The reason I care is because I trust Karpathy more than Sam or Greg. I also believe that all four of them were actually vital to the creation of OpenAI. Recommended Markets (https://manifold.markets/embed/Soli/will-sam-make-a-public-positive-sta?r=U29saQ)Resolving this Market I created this question on the 18th of November while wondering what Karpathy thinks of the OpenAI situation. My assumption was that due to the nature of his work, Karpathy might be working closely with Ilya at OpenAI and will therefore have a better understanding of his view than most (assuming Ilya played a role in the attempt to oust Sam out of OpenAI). I tweeted the following on the 19th: [tweet] Then someone replied to me with the following: [tweet]I checked Karpathy's likes tab and found the following tweets: [tweet][tweet]Then Karpathy responded to my tweet saying: [tweet]I believe this question should resolve as 'Yes'. Karpathy's statement, "I like and respect Sam," is a clear support of Sam. Additionally, his negative comments about the board reinforce this support. This statement alone suffices for a positive resolution. Moreover, considering his other actions, like his likes and retweets, further solidifies this viewpoint. Also, I read the comments and I want to remind everyone that the question says "Will Karpathy publicly express support for Sam and/or Greg on Twitter?". Karpathy clearly expressed support for Sam Twitter. [tweet]
2023-11-18T02:45:35
2023-11-30T13:59:00
2023-11-30T18:16:03
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-wFiZNLKllLgNzAgNbyWj
Will Destiny reach 732k subscribers by November 22?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny GMT+1
2023-11-18T01:32:01
2023-11-22T14:59:00
2023-11-22T15:26:41
no
MANIFOLD
mani-F47TbsPNhMjfqg4fjduW
Will OpenAI remove, for >7d, any feature that was released to everyone in a tier, citing AI safety, before 2024-05-18?
"In a tier" means that all customers within a specific group of customers have that feature. For example, all ChatGPT Plus users have access to ChatGPT-4 -- if OpenAI removes ChatGPT-4, this market will resolve to YES, even though free-tier users never had access to ChatGPT-4. "For 7 days" means that the feature has to be unavailable to users in that tier for at least 7 (continuous) days. An example of something that would have counted was the removal of "Browse with Bing" on 2023-07-03, followed by the reinstatement of that feature on 2023-09-27. An example of something that would not count is a series of intermittent hour-long outages of a particular feature leading to 60% aggregate uptime over a 1 month period. If the feature was partially but not fully rolled out within its tier, it does not count. For example, as of now (2023-11-18), OpenAI states that GPT-4 fine tuning will be released incrementally to some, but not all, users. If OpenAI halts the rollout of GPT-4 fine-tuning without making it available to everyone, that would not count as "removing a product that was released to all paying customers". If OpenAI removes a feature for reasons that do not touch on AI safety (e.g. cost, legal concerns), this market will not resolve to YES with respect to that feature. If they cite a reason due to the inability to guarantee safe results from their models, this market will resolve to YES, even if they do not use the exact words "AI safety" (e.g. "preventing prompt injection through uploaded files turned out to be intractable and so users can no longer process uploaded files"). This market specifically addresses OpenAI doing this to any feature between now (2023-11-18) and the resolution date (2024-05-18).
2023-11-18T01:17:22
2024-05-18T23:59:00
2024-06-03T09:16:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-DNiAMIneEKRVhvUr4cn9
Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy before the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T23:18:47
2024-12-31T22:59:00
2025-01-01T00:01:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-npUSO7JPh79GlVsS5ci9
Will Sam Altman announce his intent to create a new AI company before Jan 1, 2024
"Announce" means tweeted or quoted on any major news network. "Intent" means concrete plans, including possible business models, release date, etc. It does not require an actual launch.
2023-11-17T20:41:58
2024-01-01T08:33:36
2024-01-01T08:33:36
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Qu3znxXnTSzItUFdhr9l
Will most people see Sam Altman being fired as the right move in a months time?
Will be judged by me based on this comments section and sentiment on Twitter. “Right move” means the right move for the company, based on the reasoning for the move that comes to light. I will not bet on this market.
2023-11-17T20:21:38
2023-12-18T15:59:00
2024-01-19T16:03:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-sSzfoH4YzmmJE1cazdOD
Will OpenAI and Anthropic announce a merge by end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T19:20:20
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:34:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-38bQQV167g1mbmFOl4mE
Will Altman "have a new company up by Monday"?
Based on https://x.com/karaswisher/status/1725702612379378120?s=20 Resolves YES if Altman has announced that he is starting a new company by the end of the day Monday PT; NO if not.
2023-11-17T19:12:15
2023-11-21T00:00:00
2023-11-21T07:41:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iFLhyWzqFhYLjTPbEacT
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T17:07:09
2023-12-31T23:59:00
2024-01-01T00:23:33
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-QOOoPHuIBkQLgTBXtNWs
Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2024?
@/Ernie/what-will-ilya-sursever-be-doing-on ^^^ This is a related multiple choice market
2023-11-17T17:03:53
2024-05-14T18:02:40
2024-05-14T18:02:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-MfiCRPerVDjIRPEFiwpn
Will Sam Altman and Greg Bockmam start a new company together before 2025?
Resolution Criteria The market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2024, Sam Altman and Greg Bockman have publicly announced the founding of a new company where they are both official co-founders or equivalent founding members. It resolves to “No” if there is no such announcement by this date. The announcement must be verifiable through credible media outlets, press releases, or official statements from Sam and Greg If Sam or Greg join an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity. Related: https://manifold.markets/Soli/why-was-sam-altman-fired-to-acceler?r=U29saQ
2023-11-17T16:34:22
2024-12-31T14:04:51
2024-12-31T14:04:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ABhD7OoF7SgTWUsuHJ3n
Will OpenAI Superalignment continue for its intended duration?
As opposed to being will it be subtly/overtly reorged?
2023-11-17T15:33:06
2024-05-18T22:18:39
2024-05-18T22:18:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tvvNwbiNsUq8gTKmcYot
Will the House of Representatives impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the 118th Congress?
Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-the-house-of-representatives-i, but by January 3, 2025. Original resolution criteria below: ==== Context: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/ This market will resolve YES if the House of Representatives passes a resolution impeaching Alejandro Mayorkas before the end of [the 118th Congress] (whether or not the Senate takes any particular action on the impeachment).
2023-11-17T15:09:19
2024-02-13T17:56:08
2024-02-13T17:56:08
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-KUIr079tDyzDJNOS576F
Sam Altman explicitly denies having been dishonest with the board before 2024.
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T14:35:23
2024-01-02T06:52:49
2024-01-02T06:52:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bmJTvDeS93rtz29fawB2
Will we know why Sam Altman was fired by EOY 2023?
Resolves YES if Sam Altman, a member of the OpenAI board, or a credible journalist publicly gives details about why Altman was removed.
2023-11-17T14:06:52
2023-12-21T16:16:35
2023-12-21T16:16:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k5ewVClBbPQFQ95OqxRV
Will MSFT close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 19]
Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday. This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday. Monday Close Price: $377.44 https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week. Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard. DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.) SIMILAR MARKETS LEADERBOARD STATS [link preview]
2023-11-17T14:05:14
2023-11-24T09:00:00
2023-11-24T10:08:25
no
MANIFOLD
mani-R6l9t5W7xeIfznqbwQaz
Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2025?
Resolves YES if Sam Altman is criminally charged with a felony crime in the US before 2025. Otherwise NO. See also: https://manifold.markets/post/felony-charges-in-crypto Details: This question will use the earliest time the charges are officially announced or reported by reliable media publications. Timezone is Eastern time Grand jury indictment counts. Charges filed as part of a plea bargain count. Other ways charges are brought count too. Both state and federal charges count for this question.
2023-11-17T14:04:17
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T06:46:40
no
MANIFOLD
mani-80eaac0jYluzZ7PZGYf0
Will Sam Altman be CEO of any Elon Musk owned company by the end of 2024?
Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, X, xAI, Neuralink, Starlink ... did I miss any?
2023-11-17T13:56:43
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:54:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9OYdLLblt6XSakJB4ThB
Will Sam Altman run for President (or VP) in 2024?
Resolves to YES if Sam Altman declares he is running, or files the official paperwork to that effect. Resolves NO if he does not.
2023-11-17T13:55:59
2024-05-09T04:52:32
2024-05-09T04:52:32
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Xj9TajV866lNuPgK3Pbx
Will Mira Murati be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI?
Resolves to YES if the board names her as the next permanent (non-interim) CEO of OpenAI, or if she remains CEO at market close of EOY 24 (to ensure this does not stay in limbo). Resolves to NO if the board names anyone else first, including reinstating Altman.
2023-11-17T13:35:12
2023-11-30T06:46:33
2023-11-30T06:46:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-vSN0IHEhupaBxNoVItk9
Will Sam Altman found an OpenAI competitor by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T13:30:11
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T20:54:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uGpCfgPXpMctP75bcJUI
Will Sam altman sue openAI?
before 2024 end
2023-11-17T13:24:12
2024-11-25T10:29:00
2024-11-28T13:04:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-QWLnX45sk3Qa8sIly2Sj
Will Sam Altman start a new AI company before June 2024?
Idk if i should tag this with OpenAI
2023-11-17T13:18:13
2024-06-01T00:06:14
2024-06-01T00:06:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zLthxapECufMYZMBnL4d
Did the next permanent CEO of OpenAI sign the FLI Pause letter?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T13:09:22
2023-11-23T11:08:59
2023-11-23T11:08:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bF37jeqld13QLaCUl8eP
Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025?
This resolves Yes if Sam announces the founding of a new company in which he is a co-founder or equivalent founding member. If he joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity. @/Soli/will-sam-altman-receive-a-significa
2023-11-17T13:07:16
2024-12-31T13:39:24
2024-12-31T13:39:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XxjbmMonCt6t0OHX1cFk
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before the end of 2030?
This question resolves YES if Sam Altman returns to any part of the OpenAI organization as CEO, by December 31, 2030. It’ll resolve YES when there is a press release by OpenAI or official new documentation from the company that lists him as CEO. RESOLVED YES per official company release: https://openai.com/blog/sam-altman-returns-as-ceo-openai-has-a-new-initial-board
2023-11-17T13:06:28
2023-11-30T18:27:27
2023-11-30T18:27:27
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IUetZc700ZLVlkWh6n0D
Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024?
Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is a cofounder of a new company, with at least $500 million in funding, that declares it will attempt to train foundation models, aim to create AGI and compete with OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic. Note that the company must declare it intends to train SOTA AI models or otherwise be explicitly aiming to create AGI - a generic AI company would not count. (Getting this up fast, will clarify exact conditions as needed, suggestions welcome.)
2023-11-17T13:01:16
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T05:40:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6wNVIDCKlURgt5whhVgv
Info that the board pushed out Altman from OpenAI due to personal, non-AI issues, by mid 2024
This is about the board's reasoning, not the reality. If the board kicked him out for some kind of personal issue, it is YES, even if the board was wrong i.e. they thought there was some kind of personal issue for conduct outside of work, or personal-relationship violations within work. Personal issue = anything, usually selfish in some way, which benefits himself. something like "lying about business issues" doesn't count. Things that would count as YES behaving improperly towards someone in/out of work would count. stealing candy bars from walgreens stealing money from work using his influence to try to get a friend/partner hired or someone fired Things that would not count being mean at work in order to change the priorities of the company being very stubborn about things, or too opinionated, or keeping secrets at work to manipulate the board into making decisions he wants The hard cases are where he is alleged to have used his authority to change company direction, but also in a way which is alleged that he would profit from personally. If no such info has come out by deadline, resolves NO.
2023-11-17T12:57:20
2024-06-30T22:01:18
2024-06-30T22:01:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-hewgGX3vUjCZR5WqcB2a
In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk?
Sam Altman just left OpenAI: https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition Will resolve to the majority opinion of a poll (with options "reduced" and "increased") of people who I think are trustworthy on this question. (Feel free to propose different resolution criteria.) Edit: Clarification: I will resolve this market based on whether the board's initial decision to fire Sam Altman set off a chain of events that ultimately reduced/increased AI risk. So if Sam returns to OpenAI, this market would NOT resolve as N/A.
2023-11-17T12:54:12
2024-11-24T23:59:00
2024-11-26T16:39:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-3xXvCL8aKO0n4ms5KEZq
Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition?
Resolves to firstuserhere's personal judgement, or mine if FUH is gone
2023-11-17T12:53:10
2024-03-17T11:56:17
2024-03-17T11:56:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EwUDhZUALX6QXonpXmkz
Altman joins Grok by mid 2024
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-17T12:49:09
2024-06-30T22:20:50
2024-06-30T22:20:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-idPQMadtNtqzlPqMWII6
Was Sam Altman being fired as CEO of OpenAI by the board related to allegations of sexual misconduct by his sister?
https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition
2023-11-17T12:46:59
2023-12-31T14:59:00
2023-12-31T15:11:21
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ei2tTbEdOFK4g0SU6nvE
Sam Altman will return to OpenAI by the end of 2024
Not restricted to CEO, but any role within the company
2023-11-17T12:45:19
2023-11-22T07:09:51
2023-11-22T07:09:51
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UOD1hvJcAaXiY13cNXyj
Evidence AIs kicked Sam Altman out of OpenAI (by mid 2024)
It will be [credibly] reported or claimed that some of the board members who voted against Sam Altman's leadership were directly influenced by the output of software/AI/LLM systems. For example, they asked about, or were told by some LLM (including via intermediaries) that Sam should be removed, or persuaded to this effect, or bribed. Basically, will there be [credible] reporting that AIs kicked Sam Altman out. By mid 2024 credible = this is highly subjective. I will use my best judgment. It can't just be a single nutty professor who's got tenure and doesn't publish. It has to be some kind of real jourlistic thing, and also not be immediately disproven or withdrawn. It can also be a high credibility individual person of legitimate fame (via their creations, work, etc.)
2023-11-17T12:44:58
2024-06-30T22:20:42
2024-06-30T22:20:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w8DWVxgHRkqq7emW5W62
Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine in 2024?
A "coup attempt" is any serious effort by a small group to forcibly seize part or all of the national government of Ukraine. This question resolves YES regardless of whether the coup attempt succeeds, and NO if no coup attempt occurs and 2024 is over. examples: credible evidence of a coup plot alone would not count (fails the "serious" requirement) demonstrations calling for the government to resign would not count (fails the "forcible" requirement, fails the "small group" requirement) the assassination of Zelensky, even by Ukrainian actors, would not count as a coup attempt unless paired with other actions that are typical of an effort to seize state power, e.g. capturing strategic buildings in Kyiv the forcible seizure of a sub-national government would not count (fails the "national" requirement) the Wagner rebellion, had it happened in Ukraine, would have counted
2023-11-17T11:00:48
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:26:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-y3QHTwkr73ZFqh3U6ZBK
NFL🏈: Week 12 Will the Carolina Panthers win their NFL Game against the Tennessee Titans on 11/26?
Resolved based on Game Day score. Will close at 2:45 pm CENTRAL TIME on Game Day
2023-11-17T09:42:58
2023-11-26T12:45:00
2023-11-26T15:33:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-FYt3jMfFLo7EIqzdZ98w
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included)
This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after 2022 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO. A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is a test, and whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised A nuclear detonation is defined as an explosion where the majority of energy is from fission/fusion, as opposed to chemical or other explosives. I.e. a dirty bomb that distributes radioactive material with a conventional explosion does not count. An attempted use of a nuclear weapon that does not detonate does not count. The timezone for this market is UTC
2023-11-17T07:34:27
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-01T07:16:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LHnseBJiU8gS0oRJsnlV
Will there be a 1.74.1 release of Rust?
Usually when a vulnerability is found in Rust, a patch release is created containing a fix. This question asks whether that will happen during the 1.74 release of Rust. This resolves to YES if Rust makes a release with version number 1.74.1 before 1.75.0 is released. When 1.75.0 is released, this market resolves to NO. (Patch releases generally are not made to previous versions.) You can see the releases on: https://releases.rs/ Previous market: https://manifold.markets/AliceRyhl/will-there-be-a-1731-release-of-rus
2023-11-17T02:49:32
2023-12-08T01:17:24
2023-12-08T01:17:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-74WqymjUtVlWfLfFLT04
Will Dean Phillips reach double digits in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average by the end of 2023?
Based on this resource: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/ —————— Manifolders are also encouraged to bet on my other market: (https://manifold.markets/embed/CanOfBeans/who-will-come-in-second-place-popul-0ebf978c5e6c)
2023-11-17T01:09:02
2024-01-01T23:59:00
2024-01-11T10:59:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-dQsp42gQCMGedaNY61aZ
Will there be a piracy incident near Somalia before 2025?
Only counting piracy incidents after market creation, but before 2025. I will not count "suspicious vessel" incidents that don't involve any attempted attack. Generally counting all piracy incidents within 500km of Somali land. Resolution source: Piracy incident map from International Maritime Bureau
2023-11-16T22:47:07
2024-12-04T19:49:39
2024-12-04T19:49:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vV3aqg4flmH6ty8uo2Jc
Will Destiny say the N word by the end of 2024?
Soft a or hard r. Has to be from between now (11/16/23) and the end of 2024.
2023-11-16T21:18:15
2023-11-27T15:08:18
2023-11-27T15:08:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6JdAbfrprrOPVpgWXSb8
Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 7.5 in IMDB at the end of 2024?
Closes by the end of 2024 at Yes if Napoleon is rated 7.5 or above, and at No if not IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/ Related: https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-0f01d3d427fc
2023-11-16T17:29:20
2024-12-31T18:59:00
2025-01-02T07:37:50
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iRLQzxM7roseBJtLNvra
Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024?
The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019. For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough government workers, and so would not count. This question resolves YES if a government shutdown involving furloughed workers happens, and otherwise resolves NO when the year ends (midnight EST). See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-there-be-a-us-government-shutd-asotx3p2i3?play=true)
2023-11-16T17:27:28
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:24:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kQmQ2KMuxFyioxT3GgiJ
Will Bitcoin be priced higher than $42,069 on April, 20th, 2024 at 4:20pm EST
Simple yes or no, will BTC close higher than $42,069 at 4:20 PM (EST) on April, 20th, 2024
2023-11-16T16:32:12
2024-04-20T12:04:35
2024-04-20T12:04:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-lJUWBnLyTe4k5ZH8TUmK
Will Snoop Dogg go back on quitting weed by the end of 2023?
Snoop Dogg announces that he is quitting weed: https://x.com/SnoopDogg/status/1725196796618817785?s=20 The market will resolve YES if there is some credible evidence that Snoop Dogg has resumed marijuana consumption by January 1st 2024. If not it will resolve as NO.
2023-11-16T15:56:12
2023-11-21T22:43:46
2023-11-21T22:43:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6Oa60OQkUg6Jn1tcx1wt
Will the TIME Person of the Year 2023 be Caucasian?
[image]Resolves YES if so, even if the title is shared with a non-Caucasian. Groups of people, abstract concepts, and technology/AI do not count as Caucasian. Resolves NO if not.
2023-11-16T13:39:01
2023-12-06T05:07:35
2023-12-06T05:07:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-0SygItRksgDyg9pAiOgG
Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price reach $1000 in 2024?
MicroStrategy is an American corporation specializing in business intelligence analytics. In recent years, it has become notable for investing a significant portion of its capital into Bitcoin, viewing it as a store of value and considering this investment their main long term strategy. Will MSTR stock price reach $1000 in 2024? https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSTR/ [image]
2023-11-16T13:15:04
2024-02-28T18:44:30
2024-02-28T18:44:30
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-i4Hq4IzeAHTuUyVlKViG
Will WONKA Score 75% or Higher on Rotten Tomatoes (Critics Score)?
Pretty straightforward - by the end of its US opening weekend (Sunday, Dec. 17th), will WONKA's Critics Score (aka its Tomatometer) match or exceed 75% on Rotten Tomatoes? [image]
2023-11-16T13:12:57
2023-12-08T21:59:00
2023-12-10T22:54:02
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tYsaTpoNJraRKp6WiMHx
Will there be a Black Friday 2023 stampede that results in at least one injury or death?
Must be reported by a major news outlet. Must happen on Black Friday. Must be a stampede. Other types of altercations don't count.
2023-11-16T12:32:37
2023-11-24T22:55:29
2023-11-24T22:55:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-9hJg1XZz07MAzdcYYzK7
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on November 18th, 2023?
Resolves YES if the SpaceX Starship Second Integrated Flight Test happens on November 18th.
2023-11-16T12:00:27
2023-11-18T04:47:24
2023-11-18T04:47:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fYumJH2hrxCD7QpcY1KO
NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the San Francisco Forty-Niners win their NFL Game vs Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving (11/23)
Resolved based on Game Day score. Will close at 8:30 pm PACIFIC on game Day
2023-11-16T11:26:59
2023-11-23T20:20:00
2023-11-23T20:38:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-mNEAZqmEuQOViPxPdbeO
NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving Day-11/23
Resolved based on Game Day Score. Will close at 4:30 pm PACIFIC Time
2023-11-16T11:25:50
2023-11-23T16:30:00
2023-11-23T16:47:34
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tXSdgi6xarZpL2VRcaID
NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their NFL Game against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day 2023 11/23
Resolved based on Game Day Score. Will close at noon on Pacific Time
2023-11-16T11:24:34
2023-11-23T12:30:00
2023-11-23T13:05:44
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-UOpU8DXnueAKZZfx0umO
Will Messi become Inter Miami's all-time top goalscorer in 2024?
>29 goals https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Inter_Miami_CF_records_and_statistics#Top_goalscorers
2023-11-16T11:13:17
2024-10-20T07:04:39
2024-10-20T07:04:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-jc0PTuUA3OkR4UHrI2kw
Will Norman Finkelstein debate Destiny by July 1st, 2024? [Ṁ1000 Pool]
[image]If a debate occurs in any format before July 1st 2024 between Norman Finkelstein and Destiny, this market resolves Yes. It can be a multi-party debate, or an argumentative "round table discussion", or something similar. It cannot merely be "they tweeted at each other" or "one ambushed the other and then they yelled and left". [markets]
2023-11-16T10:56:40
2024-04-14T18:54:37
2024-04-14T18:54:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-pEHjpbmrHAnJXrPy3tqC
Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs vs Eagles game on Monday, November 20?
[image]
2023-11-16T06:50:27
2023-11-20T19:26:07
2023-11-20T19:26:07
no
MANIFOLD
mani-VHFSrhUnqDJ4c0Jio8Dp
Will there be a partial or full US government shutdown in January 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-16T05:50:38
2024-01-31T06:56:02
2024-01-31T06:56:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U2CGMvi8U1akyKgRpL5L
Will India win final of Cricket World cup 2023?
Resolves as Yes if India wins Cricket world cup 2023. Otherwise No.
2023-11-16T03:21:49
2023-11-19T08:01:58
2023-11-19T08:01:58
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8DBqMEC5hZ2Uy7lxIEgj
Will Nikki Haley finish first in the NH primary on Jan 23, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-16T02:56:47
2024-01-23T17:22:02
2024-01-23T17:22:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-SPtYAc3JV7Db2VgGjH3I
One Year from now, will GPT-5 (or another AI model) be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program
One year from today (11-16-2023), will GPT-5 (or another AI model) be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program? An example of what I mean by a "sophisticated program" would be: "write a gatcha game similar to Genshin Impact where all of the art is generated using AI models" Specific technical requirements: The program is at least 2000 lines of code has multiple user interfaces Involves storing/retrieving/modifying multiple types of objects from a database has multiple concurrent threads the flow of the program depends in some significant way on the count/states of different objects in the database The program depends on combining the output of multiple cutting edge AI models At least one of the models is less than 30 days old (meaning code that could run the model did not exist 30 days earlier) The Challenge: The AI will be given a design document in plain English of no more than 500 words. The document may include suggestions such as "use library X" or "use model Y" the document may include a flow diagram (in text) of how the program should operate. The AI must then write the entire program without human intervention it is allowed to use methods such as Code Interpreter or Web Browsing, the only thing it cannot do is receive human assistance The AI must produce a complete program which runs correct and meets all of the requirements in the design document The AI can have as many "tries" as it wants, provided it correctly identifies which is the successful program (a human is not allowed to pick the best program for the computer)
2023-11-15T20:57:55
2024-11-15T20:59:00
2024-11-21T15:30:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-tXMsaTTvedXy8rRjD6ue
Will Elon Musk appear on Dwarkesh Podcast before 2025?
Elon's a Dwarkesh reply guy, apparently. The podcast: www.dwarkeshpatel.com Updated criteria clarification: To resolve yes this must occur before 2025 PST time. It doesn't have to be a full podcast. A short clip, trailer or teaser that includes video or audio of Elon which is original content belonging to the Dwarkesh podcast counts. If recording has taken place, but no original video or audio media is uploaded to any of Dwarkesh's socials by the resolution date then this resolves NO.
2023-11-15T16:43:11
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T14:46:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-OU4CuLrIi0vwOaXO8dWi
Will Destiny join Daily Wire before 2025?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-15T14:38:09
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-22T13:24:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iMC2gBTy1YRzHLRwDEb6
Will there be a 48 hour ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War by the end of 2023?
Must be adhered to not just announced or agreed in principle.
2023-11-15T14:35:00
2023-11-26T09:42:28
2023-11-26T09:42:28
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-cKaDTrPuVhko3eJ1CMDY
Will Solana reach 100 by December 25
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-15T12:44:25
2023-12-23T19:39:42
2023-12-23T19:39:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nmTDWu6KQN3jXbYimXZo
NFL🏈: Week 11 -- Will the Minnesota Vikings win their NFL Game against the Denver Broncos on 11/19?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-15T12:32:40
2023-11-19T20:27:08
2023-11-19T20:27:08
no
MANIFOLD