id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-kpJ3ap4VAuhseHqOM1dM | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Miami (OH) beat Toledo in the MAC championship game? | 2023-12-02 at 12 PM ET in Detroit, MI. Line: Toledo -8. | 2023-11-18T20:46:14 | 2023-12-02T12:47:47 | 2023-12-02T12:47:47 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RrYIOaGgVMa90tJ5txPo | Sam Altman will return to OpenAI by the end of Nov 2023 | Time: Nov 30 23:59, PST | 2023-11-18T20:44:48 | 2023-11-30T07:59:00 | 2023-11-30T08:26:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IZVgNzmgUHk1oVBPJEra | GPT-5 will be announced in 3 months (Feb 2024) | Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly announced (blog/paper) before Feb 19, 2024; resolves NO otherwise. | 2023-11-18T20:39:47 | 2024-02-19T07:59:00 | 2024-02-20T03:21:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IyAhMgReT02biT0Uvam0 | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #1 Georgia beat #8 Alabama in the SEC championship game? | 2023-12-02 at 4 PM ET in Atlanta, GA. Line: Georgia -5. | 2023-11-18T20:38:46 | 2023-12-02T16:25:06 | 2023-12-02T16:25:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uBwmzpJJP8SGhqYDdlqz | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #7 Texas beat #20 Oklahoma State in the Big 12 championship game? | 2023-12-02 at 12 PM ET in Arlington, TX. Line: Texas -14. | 2023-11-18T20:33:53 | 2023-12-02T12:39:06 | 2023-12-02T12:39:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ov3aa7WcW3RIXaFtjsuI | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #17 Iowa beat #3 Michigan in the Big Ten championship game? | 2023-12-02 at 8 PM ET in Indianapolis, IN. Line: Michigan -23. | 2023-11-18T20:29:50 | 2023-12-02T20:42:26 | 2023-12-02T20:42:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7LM6vzgZJXwxZOOChrmS | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #10 Louisville beat #5 Florida State in the ACC championship game? | 2023-12-02 at 8 PM ET in Charlotte, NC. Line: Florida State -3.5. | 2023-11-18T20:25:45 | 2023-12-02T20:42:55 | 2023-12-02T20:42:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uA14WKMZ0Cclo2UB231P | Will Sam Altman be reinstated as CEO of OpenAI by Sunday, November 19th? | Resolves at midnight PST. | 2023-11-18T19:29:09 | 2023-11-19T23:38:01 | 2023-11-19T23:38:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-o8oY36PUebifVpMJNveU | Will Mira Murati leave OpenAI by EOY 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T19:24:57 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T06:37:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qi4zTpcywW5ET3lqcN1R | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T16:49:30 | 2023-11-30T05:32:53 | 2023-11-30T05:32:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mNPwgY49FlRk9Vqnv8UZ | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI? | There has been internal discussion saying OpenAI is talking about bringing Altman back | 2023-11-18T16:42:33 | 2023-11-30T22:53:55 | 2023-11-30T22:53:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-EF43yaN8teb3WAgieWRU | Will any of Helen Toner, Tasha McCauley, Adam D'Angelo, or Ilya Sutskever be on OpenAI's board of directors on 1/1/2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T15:59:33 | 2023-12-31T23:18:16 | 2023-12-31T23:18:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-L5oEppRGy4qVCn6oSeS9 | Will Ilya Sutskever be working at OpenAI on January 1st 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T15:58:06 | 2023-12-31T21:05:06 | 2023-12-31T21:05:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tI0SmMHzn0nMUbXo21rm | [Metaculus] Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026? | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19998/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if Sam Altman is announced as OpenAI's CEO and returns to the position before January 1, 2026.
Fine... | 2023-11-18T15:52:25 | 2023-11-30T10:17:57 | 2023-11-30T10:17:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-LUEwWEp3kG5RXjjODReC | At EOY 2024, will both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever be at OpenAI? | Reasoning for making this is that it seems that it would be hard for both Sam and Ilya to coexist at the same company given what happened.
Resolves yes if both Sam Altman and Ilya Sutskever are at OpenAI | 2023-11-18T15:48:05 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:55:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Gl9LlgwsZuAkRywXds39 | Will Sam Altman die before the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T15:40:43 | 2024-01-06T20:59:00 | 2024-01-13T01:19:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-BfxZdvFPssQMP5s6BcKh | Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2024? | For any length of time, even if they're removed again shortly afterwards. | 2023-11-18T15:09:42 | 2023-11-29T22:36:04 | 2023-11-29T22:36:04 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lPlllRcukKrAPm2l6k4M | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI? | [image]If Sam Altman returns to OpenAI under any position by the eOY, this market will resolve to a YES. | 2023-11-18T15:05:29 | 2023-11-29T18:00:57 | 2023-11-29T18:00:57 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RMYGOXS2359HGcoFH3Ft | Will Sam Altman return as OpenAI CEO in the next 6 months? | https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/18/23967199/breaking-openai-board-in-discussions-with-sam-altman-to-return-as-ceo | 2023-11-18T15:04:54 | 2023-12-31T07:39:06 | 2023-12-31T07:39:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-dOHZeGGEgXaycq0zxt9I | Will Trump win the US Presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T14:59:29 | 2024-11-06T15:37:51 | 2024-11-06T15:37:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7Ivp1T8xhilxRhjguGz7 | Will SpaceX's Starship cross the International Date Line by the end of Q2 2024. | This resolves as yes if Starship launches from the Americas and crosses the 180th meridian before landing, crashing, or breaking up.
For example, launching in an Easterly direction from Texas and breaking up on reentry near Hawaii would qualify.
I created this market because of uncertainty about what constitutes "goi... | 2023-11-18T13:08:39 | 2024-07-02T15:00:23 | 2024-07-02T15:00:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RJOJJF95YVTz1sQpdMNL | Will there be a GPT-4.5 model before GPT-5 is released? | Resolves N/A if OpenAI ceases to exist or they change numbering model
Resolves YES on release of 4.5 model strictly before a release of a model named gpt 5
Resolves NO on release of gpt 5 which isn't preceded by a release of 4.5. Resolves NO in case of a simultaneous release | 2023-11-18T12:32:35 | 2025-03-07T11:45:46 | 2025-03-07T11:45:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-H9P08MvGEMeWUbR1Us46 | [Metaculus] Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026? | Will the International Criminal Court bring charges against Benjamin Netanyahu before 2026?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19824/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2026, the International Criminal C... | 2023-11-18T12:03:19 | 2024-11-23T02:23:01 | 2024-11-23T02:23:01 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-VrvGCYkLnwGU2bYaobW4 | Will Matt Levine mention Everything Is Securities Fraud in relation to Sam Altman in Money Stuff over the next week? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T11:54:47 | 2023-11-25T23:59:00 | 2023-11-26T00:19:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2oHCTZfNOvFMTbJmjfCx | [Metaculus] Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025? | Will Sam Altman and Greg Brockman start a new AI company, or join a competitor to OpenAI, before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/20005/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
The question resolves Yes if, before January 1, 2025, both Sam Altman and Gr... | 2023-11-18T11:51:51 | 2025-01-02T11:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:42:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-p7xWuQ25WbiqDWjmrkzU | Will Sam Altman start a new company by the end of 2023 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-18T11:48:58 | 2024-01-01T20:59:00 | 2024-01-08T11:36:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pSE8S6oBQ2MxC58Chhfu | Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024? | Resolves based on my sole judgement, which will be based on my best reading of the general consensus (rather than my personal feelings about OpenAI) | 2023-11-18T11:25:13 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2025-01-11T09:52:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-C9WPhSwOTjF8its7RTPf | Will the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles in their Week 11 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Chiefs win
No - Eagles win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-11-18T11:22:18 | 2023-11-20T20:30:50 | 2023-11-20T20:31:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9owKN1EUfDOxHKf33JPx | Will the Denver Broncos beat the Minnesota Vikings in their Week 11 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Broncos win
No - Vikings win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-11-18T11:19:57 | 2023-11-19T20:46:17 | 2023-11-19T20:46:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5edOcHjoJJkqNg8LsZm5 | Was Sam Altman fired because the board suspected he'd created an undisclosed AGI? | This question resolves in November of 2024, as such information may take some time to break.
If the Q* story turns out to be true and reporting and/or quotes from one or more board members indicates the board was specifically concerned that Q* represented an AGI this market will resolve to yes. | 2023-11-18T10:37:07 | 2024-11-25T20:59:00 | 2024-11-26T07:33:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZoJQDVLp6yZm8PVLJSif | Will Microsoft file any lawsuit over OpenAI's termination of Sam Altman, before the end of 2024? | The market resolves to "YES" if a reputable source confirms that Microsoft has filed any lawsuit that is directly related to the OpenAI's "leadership transition" (i.e. firing Sam Altman) before the end of 2024. It resolves to "NO" if there is no such reputable source.
Background: According to Axios, Microsoft has inve... | 2023-11-18T09:57:07 | 2025-02-02T07:52:08 | 2025-02-02T07:52:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ea4hpEAwkkiirfTA4xxD | [Metaculus] Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024? | Will Bitcoin reach $40,000 before January 1, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19898/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of $40,000 or more before January 1, 2024. Whether or not the... | 2023-11-18T07:51:48 | 2023-12-03T14:59:50 | 2023-12-03T14:59:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-N7AJ4ywGsD1IoaKDCZ0w | Will Sam Altman or Greg Brockman join X AI by 11:59pm 31st December 2024 | If either Sam Altman or Greg Brockman join X AI as an employee before the end of 2024 this question resolves to yes. | 2023-11-18T07:20:42 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-02-01T23:04:46 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-7M4QoYMj5o5hOY2sCS3y | Will Israel Take the Khan Younis City Hall by December 15th? | This is a market on whether the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will take possession of the Khan Younis City Hall in southern Gaza (also called municipality; located at: 31°20'39.0"N 34°18'34.5"E) according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) by December 15th. A link to the ISW's map is here. The area of the map i... | 2023-11-18T05:26:26 | 2023-12-16T12:29:40 | 2023-12-16T12:29:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-2jWliY1V38RWSuiDpDup | Will a new state be recognised by the UN anywhere in Palestine before the end of 2024? | Resolution YES means that the new state is either a member state of the UN, or that they are defined as a “state party” (in the same way that collective Palestine is currently) as according to this article (ignoring plagiarism or incorrect edits )
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_limited_recognition?... | 2023-11-18T05:24:20 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-01T21:00:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FgRgXGPmaAnLnSuHlFHS | Will Karpathy publicly express support for Sam and/or Greg on Twitter? | Resolution Criteria
The market resolves positively if Karpathy makes a clear statement of support in a tweet before end of the month. The statement must be unambiguous in its support.
Background
[image]Sam was fired. Greg resigned. Many have spoken in support such as Brian. I wonder what Karpathy thinks. The reas... | 2023-11-18T02:45:35 | 2023-11-30T13:59:00 | 2023-11-30T18:16:03 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-wFiZNLKllLgNzAgNbyWj | Will Destiny reach 732k subscribers by November 22? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
GMT+1 | 2023-11-18T01:32:01 | 2023-11-22T14:59:00 | 2023-11-22T15:26:41 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-F47TbsPNhMjfqg4fjduW | Will OpenAI remove, for >7d, any feature that was released to everyone in a tier, citing AI safety, before 2024-05-18? | "In a tier" means that all customers within a specific group of customers have that feature. For example, all ChatGPT Plus users have access to ChatGPT-4 -- if OpenAI removes ChatGPT-4, this market will resolve to YES, even though free-tier users never had access to ChatGPT-4.
"For 7 days" means that the feature has t... | 2023-11-18T01:17:22 | 2024-05-18T23:59:00 | 2024-06-03T09:16:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-DNiAMIneEKRVhvUr4cn9 | Will OpenAI declare bankruptcy before the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T23:18:47 | 2024-12-31T22:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:01:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-npUSO7JPh79GlVsS5ci9 | Will Sam Altman announce his intent to create a new AI company before Jan 1, 2024 | "Announce" means tweeted or quoted on any major news network.
"Intent" means concrete plans, including possible business models, release date, etc. It does not require an actual launch. | 2023-11-17T20:41:58 | 2024-01-01T08:33:36 | 2024-01-01T08:33:36 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Qu3znxXnTSzItUFdhr9l | Will most people see Sam Altman being fired as the right move in a months time? | Will be judged by me based on this comments section and sentiment on Twitter.
“Right move” means the right move for the company, based on the reasoning for the move that comes to light.
I will not bet on this market. | 2023-11-17T20:21:38 | 2023-12-18T15:59:00 | 2024-01-19T16:03:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-sSzfoH4YzmmJE1cazdOD | Will OpenAI and Anthropic announce a merge by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T19:20:20 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:34:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-38bQQV167g1mbmFOl4mE | Will Altman "have a new company up by Monday"? | Based on https://x.com/karaswisher/status/1725702612379378120?s=20
Resolves YES if Altman has announced that he is starting a new company by the end of the day Monday PT; NO if not. | 2023-11-17T19:12:15 | 2023-11-21T00:00:00 | 2023-11-21T07:41:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iFLhyWzqFhYLjTPbEacT | Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T17:07:09 | 2023-12-31T23:59:00 | 2024-01-01T00:23:33 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-QOOoPHuIBkQLgTBXtNWs | Will Ilya Sutskever continue at OpenAI til end 2024? | @/Ernie/what-will-ilya-sursever-be-doing-on
^^^
This is a related multiple choice market | 2023-11-17T17:03:53 | 2024-05-14T18:02:40 | 2024-05-14T18:02:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-MfiCRPerVDjIRPEFiwpn | Will Sam Altman and Greg Bockmam start a new company together before 2025? | Resolution Criteria
The market resolves to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2024, Sam Altman and Greg Bockman have publicly announced the founding of a new company where they are both official co-founders or equivalent founding members.
It resolves to “No” if there is no such announcement by this date.
The announcement mus... | 2023-11-17T16:34:22 | 2024-12-31T14:04:51 | 2024-12-31T14:04:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ABhD7OoF7SgTWUsuHJ3n | Will OpenAI Superalignment continue for its intended duration? | As opposed to being will it be subtly/overtly reorged? | 2023-11-17T15:33:06 | 2024-05-18T22:18:39 | 2024-05-18T22:18:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tvvNwbiNsUq8gTKmcYot | Will the House of Representatives impeach DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas during the 118th Congress? | Same resolution criteria as https://manifold.markets/octothorpe/will-the-house-of-representatives-i, but by January 3, 2025. Original resolution criteria below:
====
Context: https://thehill.com/homenews/house/3774233-house-republicans-ramp-up-calls-to-impeach-dhs-secretary-mayorkas/
This market will resolve YES if ... | 2023-11-17T15:09:19 | 2024-02-13T17:56:08 | 2024-02-13T17:56:08 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-KUIr079tDyzDJNOS576F | Sam Altman explicitly denies having been dishonest with the board before 2024. | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T14:35:23 | 2024-01-02T06:52:49 | 2024-01-02T06:52:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bmJTvDeS93rtz29fawB2 | Will we know why Sam Altman was fired by EOY 2023? | Resolves YES if Sam Altman, a member of the OpenAI board, or a credible journalist publicly gives details about why Altman was removed. | 2023-11-17T14:06:52 | 2023-12-21T16:16:35 | 2023-12-21T16:16:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k5ewVClBbPQFQ95OqxRV | Will MSFT close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 19] | Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.
This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
Monday Close Price: $377.44
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/MSFT:NASDAQ
NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the ... | 2023-11-17T14:05:14 | 2023-11-24T09:00:00 | 2023-11-24T10:08:25 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-R6l9t5W7xeIfznqbwQaz | Will Sam Altman be charged with a felony crime before 2025? | Resolves YES if Sam Altman is criminally charged with a felony crime in the US before 2025. Otherwise NO.
See also: https://manifold.markets/post/felony-charges-in-crypto
Details:
This question will use the earliest time the charges are officially announced or reported by reliable media publications.
Timezone is E... | 2023-11-17T14:04:17 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T06:46:40 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-80eaac0jYluzZ7PZGYf0 | Will Sam Altman be CEO of any Elon Musk owned company by the end of 2024? | Tesla, SpaceX, Boring, X, xAI, Neuralink, Starlink ... did I miss any? | 2023-11-17T13:56:43 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:54:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9OYdLLblt6XSakJB4ThB | Will Sam Altman run for President (or VP) in 2024? | Resolves to YES if Sam Altman declares he is running, or files the official paperwork to that effect.
Resolves NO if he does not. | 2023-11-17T13:55:59 | 2024-05-09T04:52:32 | 2024-05-09T04:52:32 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Xj9TajV866lNuPgK3Pbx | Will Mira Murati be the next permanent CEO of OpenAI? | Resolves to YES if the board names her as the next permanent (non-interim) CEO of OpenAI, or if she remains CEO at market close of EOY 24 (to ensure this does not stay in limbo).
Resolves to NO if the board names anyone else first, including reinstating Altman.
| 2023-11-17T13:35:12 | 2023-11-30T06:46:33 | 2023-11-30T06:46:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-vSN0IHEhupaBxNoVItk9 | Will Sam Altman found an OpenAI competitor by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T13:30:11 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T20:54:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uGpCfgPXpMctP75bcJUI | Will Sam altman sue openAI? | before 2024 end | 2023-11-17T13:24:12 | 2024-11-25T10:29:00 | 2024-11-28T13:04:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-QWLnX45sk3Qa8sIly2Sj | Will Sam Altman start a new AI company before June 2024? | Idk if i should tag this with OpenAI | 2023-11-17T13:18:13 | 2024-06-01T00:06:14 | 2024-06-01T00:06:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zLthxapECufMYZMBnL4d | Did the next permanent CEO of OpenAI sign the FLI Pause letter? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T13:09:22 | 2023-11-23T11:08:59 | 2023-11-23T11:08:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bF37jeqld13QLaCUl8eP | Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025? | This resolves Yes if Sam announces the founding of a new company in which he is a co-founder or equivalent founding member.
If he joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company en... | 2023-11-17T13:07:16 | 2024-12-31T13:39:24 | 2024-12-31T13:39:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XxjbmMonCt6t0OHX1cFk | Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI as CEO before the end of 2030? | This question resolves YES if Sam Altman returns to any part of the OpenAI organization as CEO, by December 31, 2030. It’ll resolve YES when there is a press release by OpenAI or official new documentation from the company that lists him as CEO.
RESOLVED YES per official company release:
https://openai.com/blog/sam-... | 2023-11-17T13:06:28 | 2023-11-30T18:27:27 | 2023-11-30T18:27:27 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IUetZc700ZLVlkWh6n0D | Will Sam Altman be a co-founder of a serious OpenAI competitor by EOY 2024? | Resolves to YES if Sam Altman is a cofounder of a new company, with at least $500 million in funding, that declares it will attempt to train foundation models, aim to create AGI and compete with OpenAI, DeepMind and Anthropic.
Note that the company must declare it intends to train SOTA AI models or otherwise be expli... | 2023-11-17T13:01:16 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T05:40:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6wNVIDCKlURgt5whhVgv | Info that the board pushed out Altman from OpenAI due to personal, non-AI issues, by mid 2024 | This is about the board's reasoning, not the reality. If the board kicked him out for some kind of personal issue, it is YES, even if the board was wrong
i.e. they thought there was some kind of personal issue for conduct outside of work, or personal-relationship violations within work. Personal issue = anything, us... | 2023-11-17T12:57:20 | 2024-06-30T22:01:18 | 2024-06-30T22:01:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-hewgGX3vUjCZR5WqcB2a | In a year, will we think that Sam Altman leaving OpenAI reduced AI risk? | Sam Altman just left OpenAI: https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition
Will resolve to the majority opinion of a poll (with options "reduced" and "increased") of people who I think are trustworthy on this question. (Feel free to propose different resolution criteria.)
Edit: Clarification: I will ... | 2023-11-17T12:54:12 | 2024-11-24T23:59:00 | 2024-11-26T16:39:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-3xXvCL8aKO0n4ms5KEZq | Will OpenAI become significantly less closed source as a result of the leadership transition? | Resolves to firstuserhere's personal judgement, or mine if FUH is gone | 2023-11-17T12:53:10 | 2024-03-17T11:56:17 | 2024-03-17T11:56:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EwUDhZUALX6QXonpXmkz | Altman joins Grok by mid 2024 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-17T12:49:09 | 2024-06-30T22:20:50 | 2024-06-30T22:20:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-idPQMadtNtqzlPqMWII6 | Was Sam Altman being fired as CEO of OpenAI by the board related to allegations of sexual misconduct by his sister? | https://openai.com/blog/openai-announces-leadership-transition | 2023-11-17T12:46:59 | 2023-12-31T14:59:00 | 2023-12-31T15:11:21 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ei2tTbEdOFK4g0SU6nvE | Sam Altman will return to OpenAI by the end of 2024 | Not restricted to CEO, but any role within the company | 2023-11-17T12:45:19 | 2023-11-22T07:09:51 | 2023-11-22T07:09:51 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UOD1hvJcAaXiY13cNXyj | Evidence AIs kicked Sam Altman out of OpenAI (by mid 2024) | It will be [credibly] reported or claimed that some of the board members who voted against Sam Altman's leadership were directly influenced by the output of software/AI/LLM systems. For example, they asked about, or were told by some LLM (including via intermediaries) that Sam should be removed, or persuaded to this ef... | 2023-11-17T12:44:58 | 2024-06-30T22:20:42 | 2024-06-30T22:20:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w8DWVxgHRkqq7emW5W62 | Will there be a coup attempt in Ukraine in 2024? | A "coup attempt" is any serious effort by a small group to forcibly seize part or all of the national government of Ukraine. This question resolves YES regardless of whether the coup attempt succeeds, and NO if no coup attempt occurs and 2024 is over.
examples:
credible evidence of a coup plot alone would not count (... | 2023-11-17T11:00:48 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:26:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-y3QHTwkr73ZFqh3U6ZBK | NFL🏈: Week 12 Will the Carolina Panthers win their NFL Game against the Tennessee Titans on 11/26? | Resolved based on Game Day score. Will close at 2:45 pm CENTRAL TIME on Game Day | 2023-11-17T09:42:58 | 2023-11-26T12:45:00 | 2023-11-26T15:33:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-FYt3jMfFLo7EIqzdZ98w | Will a nuclear weapon be detonated by end of 2024? (tests included) | This question will resolve as YES if any nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world after 2022 and before January 1, 2025. Otherwise NO.
A detonation would resolve YES regardless of whether it is a test, and whether it is deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorised
A nuclear detonation is defined as an... | 2023-11-17T07:34:27 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-01T07:16:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LHnseBJiU8gS0oRJsnlV | Will there be a 1.74.1 release of Rust? | Usually when a vulnerability is found in Rust, a patch release is created containing a fix. This question asks whether that will happen during the 1.74 release of Rust.
This resolves to YES if Rust makes a release with version number 1.74.1 before 1.75.0 is released. When 1.75.0 is released, this market resolves to NO... | 2023-11-17T02:49:32 | 2023-12-08T01:17:24 | 2023-12-08T01:17:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-74WqymjUtVlWfLfFLT04 | Will Dean Phillips reach double digits in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average by the end of 2023? | Based on this resource: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/2024/national/
——————
Manifolders are also encouraged to bet on my other market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CanOfBeans/who-will-come-in-second-place-popul-0ebf978c5e6c) | 2023-11-17T01:09:02 | 2024-01-01T23:59:00 | 2024-01-11T10:59:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-dQsp42gQCMGedaNY61aZ | Will there be a piracy incident near Somalia before 2025? | Only counting piracy incidents after market creation, but before 2025. I will not count "suspicious vessel" incidents that don't involve any attempted attack.
Generally counting all piracy incidents within 500km of Somali land.
Resolution source: Piracy incident map from International Maritime Bureau | 2023-11-16T22:47:07 | 2024-12-04T19:49:39 | 2024-12-04T19:49:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vV3aqg4flmH6ty8uo2Jc | Will Destiny say the N word by the end of 2024? | Soft a or hard r. Has to be from between now (11/16/23) and the end of 2024. | 2023-11-16T21:18:15 | 2023-11-27T15:08:18 | 2023-11-27T15:08:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6JdAbfrprrOPVpgWXSb8 | Will Ridley Scott's Napoleon be rated at least 7.5 in IMDB at the end of 2024? | Closes by the end of 2024 at Yes if Napoleon is rated 7.5 or above, and at No if not
IMDB page: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13287846/
Related:
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate
https://manifold.markets/GustavoMafra/will-ridley-scotts-napoleon-be-rate-0f01d3d427fc | 2023-11-16T17:29:20 | 2024-12-31T18:59:00 | 2025-01-02T07:37:50 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iRLQzxM7roseBJtLNvra | Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2024? | The United States has a history of government shutdowns. The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019.
For the purposes of this question, a "government shutdown" must involve furloughing of workers. For example, the brief shutdown on 9 Feb 2018 lasted only a few hours and did not furlough governme... | 2023-11-16T17:27:28 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:24:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kQmQ2KMuxFyioxT3GgiJ | Will Bitcoin be priced higher than $42,069 on April, 20th, 2024 at 4:20pm EST | Simple yes or no, will BTC close higher than $42,069 at 4:20 PM (EST) on April, 20th, 2024 | 2023-11-16T16:32:12 | 2024-04-20T12:04:35 | 2024-04-20T12:04:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-lJUWBnLyTe4k5ZH8TUmK | Will Snoop Dogg go back on quitting weed by the end of 2023? | Snoop Dogg announces that he is quitting weed:
https://x.com/SnoopDogg/status/1725196796618817785?s=20
The market will resolve YES if there is some credible evidence that Snoop Dogg has resumed marijuana consumption by January 1st 2024. If not it will resolve as NO. | 2023-11-16T15:56:12 | 2023-11-21T22:43:46 | 2023-11-21T22:43:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Oa60OQkUg6Jn1tcx1wt | Will the TIME Person of the Year 2023 be Caucasian? | [image]Resolves YES if so, even if the title is shared with a non-Caucasian. Groups of people, abstract concepts, and technology/AI do not count as Caucasian.
Resolves NO if not. | 2023-11-16T13:39:01 | 2023-12-06T05:07:35 | 2023-12-06T05:07:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-0SygItRksgDyg9pAiOgG | Will MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price reach $1000 in 2024? | MicroStrategy is an American corporation specializing in business intelligence analytics. In recent years, it has become notable for investing a significant portion of its capital into Bitcoin, viewing it as a store of value and considering this investment their main long term strategy.
Will MSTR stock price reach $10... | 2023-11-16T13:15:04 | 2024-02-28T18:44:30 | 2024-02-28T18:44:30 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-i4Hq4IzeAHTuUyVlKViG | Will WONKA Score 75% or Higher on Rotten Tomatoes (Critics Score)? | Pretty straightforward - by the end of its US opening weekend (Sunday, Dec. 17th), will WONKA's Critics Score (aka its Tomatometer) match or exceed 75% on Rotten Tomatoes?
[image] | 2023-11-16T13:12:57 | 2023-12-08T21:59:00 | 2023-12-10T22:54:02 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tYsaTpoNJraRKp6WiMHx | Will there be a Black Friday 2023 stampede that results in at least one injury or death? | Must be reported by a major news outlet. Must happen on Black Friday. Must be a stampede. Other types of altercations don't count. | 2023-11-16T12:32:37 | 2023-11-24T22:55:29 | 2023-11-24T22:55:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-9hJg1XZz07MAzdcYYzK7 | Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on November 18th, 2023? | Resolves YES if the SpaceX Starship Second Integrated Flight Test happens on November 18th. | 2023-11-16T12:00:27 | 2023-11-18T04:47:24 | 2023-11-18T04:47:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fYumJH2hrxCD7QpcY1KO | NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the San Francisco Forty-Niners win their NFL Game vs Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving (11/23) | Resolved based on Game Day score. Will close at 8:30 pm PACIFIC on game Day | 2023-11-16T11:26:59 | 2023-11-23T20:20:00 | 2023-11-23T20:38:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-mNEAZqmEuQOViPxPdbeO | NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the Dallas Cowboys win their NFL Game against the Washington Commanders on Thanksgiving Day-11/23 | Resolved based on Game Day Score. Will close at 4:30 pm PACIFIC Time | 2023-11-16T11:25:50 | 2023-11-23T16:30:00 | 2023-11-23T16:47:34 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tXSdgi6xarZpL2VRcaID | NFL🏈: Week 12 -- Will the Green Bay Packers win their NFL Game against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving Day 2023 11/23 | Resolved based on Game Day Score. Will close at noon on Pacific Time | 2023-11-16T11:24:34 | 2023-11-23T12:30:00 | 2023-11-23T13:05:44 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-UOpU8DXnueAKZZfx0umO | Will Messi become Inter Miami's all-time top goalscorer in 2024? | >29 goals
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Inter_Miami_CF_records_and_statistics#Top_goalscorers | 2023-11-16T11:13:17 | 2024-10-20T07:04:39 | 2024-10-20T07:04:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-jc0PTuUA3OkR4UHrI2kw | Will Norman Finkelstein debate Destiny by July 1st, 2024? [Ṁ1000 Pool] | [image]If a debate occurs in any format before July 1st 2024 between Norman Finkelstein and Destiny, this market resolves Yes. It can be a multi-party debate, or an argumentative "round table discussion", or something similar. It cannot merely be "they tweeted at each other" or "one ambushed the other and then they yel... | 2023-11-16T10:56:40 | 2024-04-14T18:54:37 | 2024-04-14T18:54:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-pEHjpbmrHAnJXrPy3tqC | Will Taylor Swift be at the Chiefs vs Eagles game on Monday, November 20? | [image] | 2023-11-16T06:50:27 | 2023-11-20T19:26:07 | 2023-11-20T19:26:07 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-VHFSrhUnqDJ4c0Jio8Dp | Will there be a partial or full US government shutdown in January 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-16T05:50:38 | 2024-01-31T06:56:02 | 2024-01-31T06:56:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U2CGMvi8U1akyKgRpL5L | Will India win final of Cricket World cup 2023? | Resolves as Yes if India wins Cricket world cup 2023. Otherwise No. | 2023-11-16T03:21:49 | 2023-11-19T08:01:58 | 2023-11-19T08:01:58 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8DBqMEC5hZ2Uy7lxIEgj | Will Nikki Haley finish first in the NH primary on Jan 23, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-16T02:56:47 | 2024-01-23T17:22:02 | 2024-01-23T17:22:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-SPtYAc3JV7Db2VgGjH3I | One Year from now, will GPT-5 (or another AI model) be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program | One year from today (11-16-2023), will GPT-5 (or another AI model) be able to write a sophisticated 2000 line program?
An example of what I mean by a "sophisticated program" would be: "write a gatcha game similar to Genshin Impact where all of the art is generated using AI models"
Specific technical requirements:
Th... | 2023-11-15T20:57:55 | 2024-11-15T20:59:00 | 2024-11-21T15:30:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-tXMsaTTvedXy8rRjD6ue | Will Elon Musk appear on Dwarkesh Podcast before 2025? | Elon's a Dwarkesh reply guy, apparently.
The podcast: www.dwarkeshpatel.com
Updated criteria clarification:
To resolve yes this must occur before 2025 PST time.
It doesn't have to be a full podcast. A short clip, trailer or teaser that includes video or audio of Elon which is original content belonging to the Dwark... | 2023-11-15T16:43:11 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T14:46:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-OU4CuLrIi0vwOaXO8dWi | Will Destiny join Daily Wire before 2025? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-15T14:38:09 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-22T13:24:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iMC2gBTy1YRzHLRwDEb6 | Will there be a 48 hour ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War by the end of 2023? | Must be adhered to not just announced or agreed in principle. | 2023-11-15T14:35:00 | 2023-11-26T09:42:28 | 2023-11-26T09:42:28 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-cKaDTrPuVhko3eJ1CMDY | Will Solana reach 100 by December 25 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-15T12:44:25 | 2023-12-23T19:39:42 | 2023-12-23T19:39:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nmTDWu6KQN3jXbYimXZo | NFL🏈: Week 11 -- Will the Minnesota Vikings win their NFL Game against the Denver Broncos on 11/19? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-15T12:32:40 | 2023-11-19T20:27:08 | 2023-11-19T20:27:08 | no | MANIFOLD |
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