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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-k81ncxjmu7Qt1FyaoU14
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by November 07, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by November 07, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and November 07, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-11-15T10:45:29
|
2024-09-18T15:48:32
|
2024-09-18T15:48:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2dGNNlpnYegp9H6CHijJ
|
Will the New York Jets air raid the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 Battle of NY State
|
YES if Jets win. NO if Bills win or tie.
|
2023-11-15T06:15:21
|
2023-11-19T18:13:22
|
2023-11-19T18:13:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4JaPjMsdPG4F2bOlCWd7
|
Will Israel beat Switzerland? ⚽ UEFA Euro 2024 Qualifiers
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-15T05:21:14
|
2023-11-15T20:29:43
|
2023-11-15T20:29:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-USsqGPIklVNh8eas1Yt0
|
Will Netanyahu be out of office as PM by year end 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-15T03:28:51
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2023-12-31T21:29:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-UrKqQsIz8EySJPUuGkvi
|
Will the UK's CPI inflation figure published on 20th December be below 4%?
|
The UK's Office for National Statistics will publish the latest inflation figures at 7:00 UK time on Wednesday 20th December.
This includes the annual CPI number for the past 12 months.
Here are the last few readings (based on the month when the figures were released):
January 2023 - 10.5%
February 2023 - 10.1%
March 2023 - 10.4%
April 2023 - 10.1%
May 2023 - 8.7%
June 2023 - 8.7%
July 2023 - 7.9%
August 2023 - 6.8%
September 2023 - 6.7%
October 2023 - 6.7%
November 2023 - 4.6%
December 2023 - TBC
(The market will resolve to NO if the figure is exactly 4.0%)
Some other UK financial markets:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-1cb014f0b8cb
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-bank-of-england-raise-the-a63a31cb1de3
|
2023-11-14T23:40:33
|
2023-12-19T23:36:34
|
2023-12-19T23:36:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZlDNd204Hlc7GkXcztNI
|
Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings?
|
AllSides analyzes news organizations and rates their political bias on a five-step scale based on scientific, multipartisan analysis. CNN's online news bias rating has shifted from "center" in 2017 to their left-most rating in 2021.
A merger between CNN's indirect parent company, WarnerMedia, and Discovery was completed in April 2022. According to Axios, David Zaslav, CEO of Discovery, considered ratings secondary to credibility and wished to return CNN's reporting to more neutral standards.
This question resolves Yes if the media bias rating on the CNN (Online News) AllSides page shows Center at any point before 2025 (UTC). Otherwise, the resolution is No.
If the rating changes to Center at one point, but changes away again by 2025, this question still resolves as Yes.
If the rating changes to a right-leaning one, without ever being Center, this question resolves as No.
If AllSides's rating scale changes, the middle rating (or two middle ratings on an even-numbered scale) will count as "Center" for the purposes of this question.
If the "CNN (Online News)" entity stops being rated, another news organization's rating may be used, for example a possible "CNN (All News)", as long as it's clearly described as encompassing CNN's online news.
|
2023-11-14T21:58:40
|
2024-12-31T07:59:00
|
2025-01-02T14:44:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RWUG6wNkxQol5sjWNuZj
|
Will Israel engage in a firefight in Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza killing at least one Hamas fighter?
|
Resolved by reputable bipartisan news sources
|
2023-11-14T21:35:29
|
2023-11-22T20:59:00
|
2023-11-22T21:20:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-emxlNsNul9YquS8oslbZ
|
Will Nikki Haley visit Israel by the end of 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-14T18:42:38
|
2023-12-31T20:32:22
|
2023-12-31T20:32:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2nDiXlMTsh3G3Dvpu5vH
|
Will Apple release an Apple Watch Ultra 3 in 2024?
|
Resolves YES if Apple announces or releases an Apple Watch ultra 3 by the end of 2024. A substantial revision of the Apple Watch ultra will count if it goes by another name.
|
2023-11-14T17:53:09
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-02T18:56:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4L7ssEonI0cx6UBBqRTb
|
Will 'Napoleon' (2023) gross more than $90 million domestically by the end of 2023?
|
I will resolve this market using the Box Office Mojo page for "Napoleon" (2023): https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. Specifically, the "Domestic" number listed under "All Releases". [1]
If this listed gross passes $90 million before January 1st 2024, the market resolves "YES". If the listed gross on January 1st 2024 is less than $90,000,000, I will resolve the market "NO". In either case, I may wait for a few days to ensure that the grosses are official (and not just estimates).
I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one). Please let me know if any aspects of the resolution are unclear.
[1] For an example of which number I'll cite, as of the date of this writing, the comparable domestic total for Godzilla vs. Kong (2021) is "$100,916,094".
[image]
|
2023-11-14T14:31:38
|
2023-12-31T11:00:43
|
2023-12-31T11:00:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zSXh6p9BiqXazUgpjEho
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 15 than it closed on November 14?
|
Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of November (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1500
3 1000
Good luck forecasting!
We have had an influx of traders so I wanted to give a few options for the December leagues (S&P and BTC).
Please vote: https://strawpoll.com/GJn47VEQbyz
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-11-14T14:05:11
|
2023-11-15T11:00:00
|
2023-11-15T15:47:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-lP7CXWPMvArsiI57SVBf
|
Will there be a US government shutdown before Valentine's Day 2024?
|
The latest continuing resolution extends government funding until early 2024.
[image]Will the US government shut down for any amount of time before Valentine's Day?
|
2023-11-14T13:34:56
|
2024-01-19T12:24:19
|
2024-01-19T12:24:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7Pf1wriceBfA9BwBy9uz
|
US enter a recession in 2024? (Two quarters negative GDP growth)
|
Resolves YES if there are two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth starting in 2024, otherwise NO. (The starting year is defined as the year of the first of the consecutive quarters. For example, Q4 and Q1 of the following year would count.)
Resolves according to BEA data, 3rd estimate. See https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Note that this is not resolved based on NBER, the official definition of recession in the US. See
(https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/us-officially-enter-a-recession-in)If BEA changes the way estimates are released or changed, resolves based on the latest official estimate as of 4 months after the end of the quarter.
May be preliminarily resolved based on BEA 1st estimate, but the final resolution will be based on 3rd estimate.
|
2023-11-14T12:37:20
|
2025-02-27T23:59:00
|
2025-03-05T16:08:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kBABqrr2lrib7Srh1FgI
|
Will U.S. inflation fall to 2.9% or less by February 2024?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to February 2024: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%, 3.24%, 3.137%, 3.35%, 3.09%, 3.153%
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. fall to 2.9% or less in November or December 2023, or January or February 2024?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0
Forecasts:
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/real-time-data-research/survey-of-professional-forecasters
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/primarydealer_survey_questions
https://data.oecd.org/price/inflation-forecast.htm#indicator-chart
|
2023-11-14T10:51:06
|
2024-03-12T15:21:46
|
2024-03-12T15:21:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xyF8lPP5VuLwKXbWlUPR
|
Will the U.S. inflation be 3.08% or less in November 2023?
|
U.S. inflation from December 2022 to November 2023: 6.5%, 6.4%, 6.0%, 5.0%, 4.9%, 4.0%, 2.97%, 3.18%, 3.665%, 3.6997%, 3.24%, 3.137%
Will the all-item 12-month percentage change in unadjusted CPI in the U.S. be 3.08% or less in November 2023?
https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CUUR0000SA0 (306.8804988)
https://www.clevelandfed.org/indicators-and-data/inflation-nowcasting (forecast)
|
2023-11-14T10:46:31
|
2023-12-12T09:59:28
|
2023-12-12T09:59:28
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XeSpejW0dt9TJEQuq7rO
|
Will the Starship test activate the Flight Termination System?
|
Resolves YES if the next Starship full stack flight test activates (or attempts to activate) the Flight Termination System, otherwise NO.
The next currently planned test is IFT2 (https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/).
|
2023-11-14T08:47:42
|
2023-11-18T06:20:59
|
2023-11-18T06:20:59
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5kpzrIxj1VyI11reTYUg
|
NFL🏈- Week 11: Will the Arizona Cardinals win their NFL game against the Houston Texans on 11/19?
|
Resolved based on game day score. The Question will close for trading at 1:00pm PACIFIC time on game day
|
2023-11-14T08:25:29
|
2023-11-19T13:00:00
|
2023-11-19T13:07:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1SxtTKw9cDdWoolXz9A4
|
Will Israel announce a ceasefire before Thanksgiving 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-14T04:25:22
|
2023-11-21T17:36:29
|
2023-11-21T17:36:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FBwiCO3YJBzZ2ldePoO4
|
Will Rishi Sunak be replaced as leader of the Conservative Party before the next UK general election?
|
The general election starts at 7am on 4th July. If Rishi Sunak has not been replaced as leader of the conservative party by the end of 3rd July, market resolves NO.
|
2023-11-14T01:22:28
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-03T15:59:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5Sv8iSzm9reNx2VXzDai
|
Will a candidate other than Joe Biden win the 2024 New Hampshire Democratic primaries?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-13T21:18:11
|
2024-01-22T21:59:00
|
2024-01-24T07:46:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tc4sCagIEJAWL6h0pLga
|
Will any additional major Olympiad competitions (USNCO, AMCs, etc.) have their local or national exams leaked this year?
|
Within just the last year two high profile exams (USNCO locals of 22-23 and AMC12a of 23-24) have been leaked. This has many implications for the credibility of Olympiad exams for their participants and the protocols for administrating other exams.
Resolves yes immediately if any of the following exams are publicly leaked and available online before the exam period is over:
math: AIME, USA(J)MO
physics: F=ma, USAPhO
chemistry: USNCO Local, USNCO National
biology: USABO Opens, USABO Semifinals
comp sci: USACO 1st, 2nd, 3rd contests, USACO US Open
Exams that ended without leaks:
AMC10b/12b
Pending:
AIME apparently?
USABO crash does not count as leak
Resolves no otherwise.
|
2023-11-13T19:42:56
|
2024-02-09T08:51:43
|
2024-02-09T08:51:43
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NRrAwqocs3gVztnUWsiV
|
Israel will show incontrovertible evidence of Hamas headquarters beneath a hospital in Gaza. (by end of 2023)
|
Israel has been telling us for weeks that Hamas has command and control centers beneath hospitals in Gaza with tunnels from the hospitals connecting them. They released a CGI demonstration of this below Shifa hospital. Now that Israel is emptying hospitals they will inspect and present the evidence. This will resolve to yes if Israel presents indisputable evidence of Hamas offices, command centers, control centers and tunnels beneath the hospitals as they have claimed.
"Incontrovertible" will be evidence that leads reputable media sources to concede that a large and important Hamas command center, or HQ, or control center was indeed located below a Gazan hospital and this is not disputed by other reputable Western media sources.
|
2023-11-13T18:50:07
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T07:49:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GiVBEdhSChyRBujCQSIp
|
Will Shohei Ohtani sign before the Winter Meetings start (Dec 4)?
|
https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10097008-shohei-ohtani-rumors-mlb-gms-feel-angels-fa-will-sign-contract-by-winter-meetings
|
2023-11-13T18:42:52
|
2023-12-05T02:59:00
|
2023-12-06T02:25:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GFi4hJLI0bpLw5DyXUH0
|
The Destiny-Shapiro debate was delayed. Surely it will still happen before March 2024?
|
Resolves Yes if Destiny the streamer and Ben Shapiro have a conversation with each other before March 1st 2024.
If the video is recorded before March 1st, but released on or after March 1st, this still resolves Yes.
|
2023-11-13T15:08:23
|
2024-01-14T13:26:15
|
2024-01-14T13:26:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-F8M1CZhaRzzwh2BJhTqd
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky's $150,000 UFO bet market spend at least a week below 90% by the end of 2024?
| ERROR: type should be string, got "https://manifold.markets/Joshua/will-eliezer-yudkowsky-win-his-1500\n\nAny 7 day period where it does not get to 90% or above (as displayed in the UI) counts."
|
2023-11-13T14:28:12
|
2024-05-24T13:24:44
|
2024-05-24T13:24:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VXGgAHms9GDZtmDC6opz
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 14 than it closed on November 13?
|
Closes 2pm EST. NYSE closes 4pm EST.
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of November (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1500
3 1000
Good luck forecasting!
We have had an influx of traders so I wanted to give a few options for the December leagues (S&P and BTC).
Please vote: https://strawpoll.com/GJn47VEQbyz
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-11-13T12:10:21
|
2023-11-14T11:00:00
|
2023-11-14T14:04:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1pCgfDKs82nXY33yK8Wk
|
Will A CyberTruck appear in a Youtube Rap Music Video with 1M+ views Before April 2024?
|
Any youtube music video with 1 million views by a rap artist.
EDIT: I will only accept videos after this market was created.... not the Travis Scott video that came out in 2020
|
2023-11-13T11:20:25
|
2024-03-25T20:34:39
|
2024-03-25T20:34:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-geSooQDQ041rUZx6jcuT
|
Will Norman Finkelstein debate Ben Shapiro by July 1st, 2024? [Ṁ200 Pool]
|
[image]If a debate occurs in any format before July 1st 2024 between Norman Finkelstein and Ben Shapiro, this market resolves Yes. It can be a multi-party debate, or an argumentative "round table discussion", or something similar. It cannot merely be "they tweeted at each other" or "one ambushed the other and then they yelled and left".
[markets]
|
2023-11-13T10:45:09
|
2024-07-01T20:59:00
|
2024-07-03T16:09:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kIbL99BFlbe0K1f9ngvW
|
Will Destiny reach 730k subscribers by November 18?
|
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
|
2023-11-13T10:29:31
|
2023-11-18T01:23:46
|
2023-11-18T01:23:46
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RP9nMbFknIvnb35S5Ncm
|
Will 2024 be colder than 2023? (according to NASA)
|
Full Question: “Will the average global temperature in 2024 be colder than in 2023?”
The question resolves to “Yes” if the average global temperature for the year 2024, as reported by NASA (gistemp), is lower than the average global temperature for 2023.
The question resolves to “No” if the average global temperature for 2024 is equal to or higher than that of 2023.
The market closes on December 31, 2024, and resolves when the annual global temperature data for 2024 is publicly available.
|
2023-11-13T08:38:41
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2024-12-31T15:11:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RgVmRqxbcAebJ8QxnJTY
|
Will the Russian Ruble reach an exchange rate of at least 95 against the USD before the end of January 2024?
|
Bloomberg pricing will be decisive. One closing price (one day) above 95 is enough.
The current spot price (13 Nov 2023) is around 92 against the USD (the higher the fx rate, the weaker the Ruble).
|
2023-11-13T02:33:00
|
2024-02-01T14:59:00
|
2024-02-02T01:33:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4dFBxFRJL6eFqqT7cXGe
|
Will Bitcoin go below $20,000 in 2024?
|
If BTC low price in 2024 is below $20,000, this will resolve YES.
---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-11-13T02:02:26
|
2024-12-31T21:00:00
|
2025-01-03T11:14:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uzX6q3oM1mL1NWpCeH35
|
Will there be a disruption to air travel because of an Icelandic volcano before 2024?
|
There is an ongoing volcanic eruption in Iceland. Will this eruption disrupt air travel, like the one in 2010?
This market includes air travel going to and from Iceland. The site of the volcano is less than 20 miles away from the main international airport. For a market that only looks at travel outside of Iceland, see https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-there-be-a-disruption-to-air-t?r=R2FicmllbGxl
|
2023-11-13T01:38:54
|
2023-12-31T15:21:27
|
2023-12-31T15:21:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kC9ryZnyW1w1WIrXP88E
|
Will there be a disruption to air travel in Europe or North America because of an Icelandic volcano before 2024?
|
There is an ongoing volcanic eruption in Iceland. Will this eruption disrupt air travel in Europe or North America, like the one in 2010?
Notably, I’m excluding disruption in air travel in Iceland. This is only looking at flights where neither airport is in Iceland. For a market that includes Iceland, see https://manifold.markets/Gabrielle/will-there-be-a-disruption-to-air-t-a180c01d0188?r=R2FicmllbGxl
|
2023-11-13T01:35:10
|
2023-12-31T15:21:36
|
2023-12-31T15:21:36
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2jxPvnfXex1QdIAr4OWu
|
Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?
|
Resolves YES on a Super Heavy booster being used in a mission intended to fly a Starship to space (>100km altitude), landing in once piece, and then launching on another mission intended to deliver a starship to space, with the second launch taking place in 2024, local time at the launch site.
See also:
@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
@/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
|
2023-11-12T22:05:16
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:08:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-coFqhkuADFKD9wOu8002
|
Will US Q4 2023 real GDP growth be above 2.5%
|
Will be settled based on the Q4 advanced estimate here https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Atlanta Fed GDPnow: https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
|
2023-11-12T22:02:57
|
2024-01-25T05:35:52
|
2024-01-25T05:35:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ltiMvwvkYbsYPI7y1swe
|
Will Apple allow sideloading of apps on iOS by the end of 2024?
|
Apple in 2021:
‘Sideloading is a cyber criminal’s best friend,’ according to Apple’s software chief
Craig Federighi says that “the floodgates are open for malware” if Apple allows sideloading on iOS
Source: Verge
And now it appears that Apple may soon allow sideloading of apps on iOS.
From 9to5mac:
iOS 17.2 hints at Apple moving towards letting users sideload apps from outside the App Store
Apple has been under pressure in the European Union as the Digital Markets Act antitrust legislation requires the company to allow users to sideload apps outside the App Store to increase competition. 9to5Mac has now found evidence in the iOS 17.2 beta code that the company is indeed moving towards enabling sideloading on iOS devices.
What is sideloading?
For those unfamiliar, the sideloading process consists of installing apps obtained from third-party sources instead of an official source. When it comes to iOS, the official source (and the only one available to iPhone and iPad users) is the App Store. Apple has never allowed sideloading on iOS, as this would allow apps to bypass the App Store guidelines.
|
2023-11-12T21:28:04
|
2024-06-11T03:04:10
|
2024-06-11T03:04:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6A1bQtUgQ5w7uDhucnn0
|
Will Taylor Swift announce Reputation (Taylor's Version) by the start of 2024?
|
The announcement must contain the cover and the release date.
Exactly 12:00AM 2024 would not count as "YES".
|
2023-11-12T20:44:55
|
2024-01-01T20:59:00
|
2024-01-01T21:31:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-IYiaxMrLgZRy519seLEP
|
Will Bitcoin hit a 100 grand by March 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-12T19:23:54
|
2024-02-29T20:59:00
|
2024-04-06T06:59:29
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D6QH0qI0DgghR43VWsGX
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #7 Texas beat Iowa State?
|
2023-11-18 at 8 PM ET in Ames, IA.
Line: Iowa State +8.
Head-to-head:
Overall: Texas 15, Iowa State 5, Tie 0
Last 5: Texas 2, Iowa State 3, Tie 0
|
2023-11-12T16:27:52
|
2023-11-18T20:17:18
|
2023-11-18T20:17:18
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GNeo1eYXgMmzHjjFjX6u
|
Will the S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) close higher on Fri. December 15th than it closed on Fri. December 8th? {WEEKLY}
|
S&P 500 closes at 4pm ET (9pm UTC)
Predictions close at 2pm ET (7pm UTC)
Previous Close On 12/08/2023:
[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-11-12T16:22:49
|
2023-12-15T11:00:00
|
2023-12-15T14:22:51
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X29zIkIRzXWlHCDBEXga
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #2 Michigan beat Maryland?
|
2023-11-18 at 12 PM ET in College Park, MD.
Line: Maryland +21.
Head-to-head:
Overall: Michigan 10, Maryland 1, Tie 0
Last 5: Michigan 5, Maryland 0, Tie 0
|
2023-11-12T16:20:08
|
2023-11-18T13:00:00
|
2023-11-18T13:30:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2eNBDl72CcNSUipA2RKJ
|
Will the Dow Jones (DJI) close higher on Fri. December 8th than on Fri. December 1st? {WEEKLY}
|
DJI closes at 4pm ET (8pm UTC)
Predictions close at 2pm ET (6pm UTC)
Previous Close 12/01/2023 :
[image]
Resolves YES or NO : Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-11-12T15:49:57
|
2023-12-08T11:00:00
|
2023-12-08T14:14:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KOfmcwNGWzXESV0eBgE9
|
Will Ruben Gallego (D) win the 2024 Arizona Senate election?
|
Ruben Gallego is the likely Democratic nominee for the 2024 primary election. Assuming he wins the primary, he will most likely face republicans Kari Lake or Mark Lamb in the 2024 general election.
This market will resolve YES if Ruben Gallego wins the 2024 Arizona Senate election.
This market will resolve NO if Ruben Gallego does not win the 2024 Arizona Senate election.
|
2023-11-12T15:14:57
|
2024-11-11T11:15:03
|
2024-11-11T11:15:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QmxsI9mmO1p2DHpmPCfi
|
[Weekly] Will BTC close higher on November 19 than it did on November 12th?
|
This question closes at 11pm UTC (6pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (7pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Last Sunday's Close: $37,086.00
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 750
3 500
We have had an influx of traders so I wanted to give a few options for the December leagues (S&P and BTC).
Please vote: https://strawpoll.com/GJn47VEQbyz
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview]
|
2023-11-12T14:15:19
|
2023-11-19T16:00:00
|
2023-11-19T16:08:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3hWKgh9OkEouQ0F1VpuQ
|
2024: Will Biden's approval rating hit its all-time low?
|
This market will resolve to YES, if at any point of 2024, the Approval Rating for Joe Biden falls below 37.6% or another All-Time-Low that might be reached in late 2023.
[image]
resolution: 538, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/
[link preview]
edit:
Please note, in case of any methodology change, this market will resolve YES whenever the bold line indicates the all-time-low is in 2024.
If there is a tie, detailed data will be used - but only at the end of the year.
|
2023-11-12T12:57:51
|
2024-03-17T04:58:14
|
2024-03-17T04:58:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-D3poV70FEaQa1X2pT3DF
|
Will TSLA drop below $100 in 2024?
|
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/?guccounter=1
[image]
|
2023-11-12T12:00:04
|
2024-12-31T14:59:00
|
2025-01-01T14:59:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KD4eMgS0e1nQm4sOb3DK
|
Will Kevin McCarthy run for re-election to the House?
|
YES if KMC runs again. NO if he doesn't. Resolves according to major political media coverage. Inspired by this interview.
|
2023-11-12T09:44:12
|
2023-12-06T09:49:46
|
2023-12-06T09:49:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-dFqllmnCZq9VxgO587R4
|
Will Australia have any cash-rate rises in 2024
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-12T00:06:52
|
2024-12-31T04:59:00
|
2025-01-20T10:26:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-pjoGdafOJrgxjxmZxwgV
|
Will the Buffalo Bills beat the Denver Broncos in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Bills win
No - Broncos win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T19:00:30
|
2023-11-13T20:27:07
|
2023-11-13T20:27:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fzy5wGBu5919WzGnxE46
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Seahawks win
No - Commanders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:58:26
|
2023-11-12T16:38:14
|
2023-11-12T16:38:30
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kIIlbiGsUVZDN8cgBvs4
|
Will the Dallas Cowboys beat the New York Giants in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Cowboys win
No - Giants win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:57:27
|
2023-11-12T16:41:39
|
2023-11-12T16:41:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-d9iebShsP1zNqkXHsqvW
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens beat the Cleveland Browns in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Ravens win
No - Browns win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:54:44
|
2023-11-12T13:25:13
|
2023-11-12T13:25:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HK404xFhv04odskPZvdG
|
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers beat the Green Bay Packers in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Steelers win
No - Packers win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:50:56
|
2023-11-12T13:10:30
|
2023-11-12T13:10:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wpiiUVUiuFKundjk5ELq
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings beat the New Orleans Saints in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Vikings win
No - Saints win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:49:30
|
2023-11-12T13:25:53
|
2023-11-12T13:27:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SqkPLFrwHVoQdrC9LtU0
|
Will the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Houston Texans in their Week 10 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Yes - Bengals win
No - Texans win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled
|
2023-11-11T18:48:33
|
2023-11-12T13:12:49
|
2023-11-12T13:13:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-4lZDSBZBp6MUA0dLvIEa
|
Will a Starship orbital flight attempt occur on November 17th, 2023?
|
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, NO if there is clearly no such livestream by market close, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened at market close.
The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
See also:
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-887fb60c0e98
@/chrisjbillington/will-a-starship-orbital-flight-atte-890e74e896aa
|
2023-11-11T18:05:32
|
2023-11-17T21:59:00
|
2023-11-17T22:07:23
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-49KL30mspWkfAABDzsfG
|
Conditional on being convicted before Election Day 2024, will Trump win the 2024 election?
|
If Donald Trump is convicted of any crime before the day that the 2024 general election takes place, this resolves based on whether he wins the election. Otherwise, it resolves N/A.
|
2023-11-11T16:28:50
|
2024-11-05T21:59:00
|
2024-11-05T23:31:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7zQ35bxgpil7B1hbZhYl
|
Will Hasan Piker be banned on twitch before 2025
|
hasan has been supporting hamas, spreading misinformation, and encouraging anti-semitism. will he get banned for this behavior before January 1, 2025?
|
2023-11-11T13:14:06
|
2024-12-31T21:59:00
|
2025-01-21T22:31:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-f3PdKeTTXIx4TAS07zOL
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Washington defeat Oregon State?
|
Kickoff: Saturday, November 18, 2023 - 4:30 PM PST
Reser Stadium - Corvallis, Oregon
|
2023-11-11T12:14:00
|
2023-11-18T20:30:00
|
2023-11-18T21:06:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-BMAzTJwiHPNBbexQUBJm
|
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Colorado defeat Washington State?
|
Kickoff: Friday, November 17, 2023 - 7:30 PM PST
Martin Stadium - Pullman, Washington
|
2023-11-11T12:08:49
|
2023-11-17T23:30:00
|
2023-11-18T00:55:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZnkH4jSXKbw2lUKd42x7
|
Will Tiger Woods win a golf tournament in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-11T10:24:04
|
2025-01-05T20:59:00
|
2025-01-06T06:58:38
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0dxSJ5wQjSSi2iFmwP00
|
Will Sweden join NATO before March 31st, 2024?
|
Same market as this one, but with an end date of March 31st 2024 vs. the beginning of 2024.
Resolution criteria will be the same as this Metaculus questions: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/
but with a close date of 2024-03-31 11:59 pm
|
2023-11-11T08:24:33
|
2024-03-07T09:16:49
|
2024-03-07T09:16:49
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6SZur5IBD28LFZi4NU8d
|
Will the presidential nominees in the 2024 US presidential election be Donald Trump and Joe Biden?
|
This market will resolve Yes if both Donald Trump and Joe Biden are nominated as presidential candidates to represent the Republican party and the Democrat party in the 2024 US presidential election.
This market will resolve No otherwise.
The resolution may occur before the closing of the question.
|
2023-11-11T07:08:39
|
2024-08-20T19:13:35
|
2024-08-20T19:13:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iCtnGMolLpluxwSvUUJG
|
Will Alphabet's stock rise in the two weeks after the release of Gemini?
|
"Release" in this market means a formal unveiling of its capabilities. If Google/deepmind give a public presentation of its capabilities, but don't grant the general public access, this will still count as a release. Leaks, rumors, or other unofficial unveilings of capabilities will not count as a release. My goal is to measure whether investors are excited or disappointed by what they see.
For simplicity, I will go by calendar dates rather than trading days. If a presentation occurs at 6pm on Wednesday, January 10th, I will close this market after the market closes on Wednesday, January 24th.
To avoid ambiguity, as a starting point I will use the closing price from the most recent full day of trading in which Gemini was not unveiled. So, if it is unveiled at 6pm (after market close), I will use the same day's closing price from 4pm. If it is unveiled at 2pm though (during trading hours) I will use the previous day's closing price as a reference point.
|
2023-11-11T05:57:05
|
2023-12-20T13:00:00
|
2023-12-20T13:09:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-PycLbIfsr13AorRaGShX
|
Will Hamas release more hostages by November 17?
|
https://polymarket.com/event/will-hamas-release-more-hostages-by-november-17
Resolves to polymarket
|
2023-11-11T03:52:08
|
2023-11-18T23:59:00
|
2023-11-19T02:50:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-B5S4FdWHsMolXSyeIS26
|
Will Charles Leclerq beat Carlos Sainz in the F1 Las Vegas GP on 11.19.23?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-11T03:18:47
|
2023-11-19T00:30:23
|
2023-11-19T00:30:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rjy1qNUEsSiphHi3PCAN
|
Will SpaceX land/catch a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound Starship flight, in 2024?
|
Resolves YES on a Super Heavy booster being used in a mission intended to fly a Starship to space (>100km altitude) and subsequently landing in one piece in 2024. Fate of the second stage is unimportant, as long as space is its intended destination.
A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a Super Heavy booster intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts. A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count. A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Super Heavy must not explode for at least ten seconds after landing for it to count as having landed in one piece.
The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the landing site.
See also:
@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-spaceflown-stars
@/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
@/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-super-heavy-boo
|
2023-11-11T01:26:31
|
2024-10-13T05:37:57
|
2024-10-13T05:37:57
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jrXCL00LUX2uPrOMjQeQ
|
Will SpaceX land a space-flown Starship in 2024?
|
Resolves YES on a Starship flying to space (>100km altitude) and returning to Earth in one piece in 2024.
A ground landing, landing on a barge, being caught by the launch tower, or anything else that brings a Starship intact to a resting position on something solid and not airborne counts. A soft "landing" in a body of water does not count. A catch by an aircraft does not count until the aircraft lands.
Starship must not explode for at least ten seconds after landing for it to count as having landed in one piece.
The relevant timezone for "in 2024" is local time at the landing site.
See also:
@/chrisjbillington/will-spacex-land-a-super-heavy-boos
@/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
@/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-super-heavy-boo
|
2023-11-11T00:15:14
|
2025-01-01T04:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:18:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-goXv3WzFGiop2BPBrrHb
|
If Trump gets enough votes to win the nomination and is also convicted, will he still be the candidate on election day?
|
Trump's first criminal trial is scheduled for March 4, the day before Super Tuesday. So by the time he is convicted, the primaries will be mostly over.
It seems very plausible that Trump will have enough votes to win the nomination, and then be convicted of a crime before the Republican National Convention. Technically this doesn't necessarily disqualify him, but it's possible that the delegates might choose not to nominate him, or he might withdraw, or be disqualified in some other way, or die.
This market resolves NA if Trump does not secure enough votes to win the nomination, or if he is not convicted of any crime before the election.
Resolves YES if he wins the nomination, is convicted, and remains the Republican candidate on election day.
Resolves NO if he wins the nomination, is convicted, but is NOT the Republican candidate in election day for any reason.
|
2023-11-10T22:08:48
|
2024-11-05T07:59:00
|
2024-11-05T13:05:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0EVOQyEBz624ooYpOCfc
|
Hamas command center under al-Shifa Hospital?
|
Israel claims that Hamas has a command center under al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City. Hamas denies this. This market will settle as YES if credible reporting confirms the existence of a command center underneath the hospital or in its immediate vicinity, in addition to the claims Israel has provided as of November 10, 2023. The market will expire on June 30, 2024. If no evidence emerges by that time, or it is shown that there is no such command center, this market will settle as NO.
Update, November 19, 8:46 AM PST: The term "no evidence" in the original question was meant to be relative, not absolute. This market will resolve YES if there is enough evidence to conclude there was a command center, but not otherwise. If I estimate there was at least a 90% chance that Hamas had a command center under al-Shifa this market will resolve as YES based on a totality of the evidence. The evidence will be judged based on a consensus of credible reporting, mainly taken from The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, The Economist, and The Washington Post. If before the end date it becomes 90% likely there was no command center in my judgment, this market will resolve as NO. If we get to the end of the market and it's not 90% certain in either direction, the market will resolve as NO.
As for definitions, a "command center" is a place where Hamas either plans or gives orders for military operations. It does not have to be the main command center of its entire war effort, or necessarily a "headquarters." The command center must have been in use as a command center at some point during the current war or during the events immediately preceding it.
|
2023-11-10T16:29:08
|
2024-02-18T08:17:23
|
2024-02-18T08:17:23
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-9f7HteBHu4Bk4b5w3Cir
|
Will crypto flip into "fear" on the fear & greed index before February 21 2024?
|
CMC fear & greed index must hit 39.99 or lower.
https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#fear-and-greed-index
|
2023-11-10T16:15:34
|
2024-02-21T17:42:56
|
2024-02-21T17:42:56
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a47G0C4zYMcGtLTCQs6d
|
Will Bitcoin dominance reach 60% or higher before 2025?
|
Resolves on Coinmarketcap https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#bitcoin-dominance
|
2023-11-10T16:06:45
|
2024-11-01T10:18:52
|
2024-11-01T10:18:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Npbdo3uJMgYVlaXaUj9m
|
Will AAPL close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 12]
|
Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.
This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
Monday Close Price: $184.80
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-11-10T13:40:00
|
2023-11-17T11:00:00
|
2023-11-17T14:03:56
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5VYW2xGlgr5zaFtIEaTH
|
Will AMZN close higher on Friday than it did on Monday? [Week of Nov 12]
|
Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.
This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
Monday Close Price: $142.59
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AMZN:NASDAQ
NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview]
|
2023-11-10T13:36:32
|
2023-11-17T11:00:00
|
2023-11-17T14:06:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NHOcFHCWNgf7bNM3HLU4
|
Will SBF get a longer sentence than Caroline + Gary + Nishad?
|
Adding together the total time in prison they each are sentenced to.
|
2023-11-10T09:19:55
|
2024-11-20T11:43:22
|
2024-11-20T11:43:22
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RvlwVjFEDTvHwwJoncBR
|
Will The Palestianians who evacuated to southern Gaza be allowed to return by the end of 2025? (M 500 Subsidies)
|
Will The Palestianians who evacuated to southern Gaza be allowed to return by the end of 2025?
See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evacuation_of_the_northern_Gaza_Strip
Resolves YES if the majoraty of Palestinians living in Northern Gaza can return to Northern Gaza.
Otherwise NO
|
2023-11-10T08:20:24
|
2025-01-27T06:04:15
|
2025-01-27T06:04:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EWIoQCF7L3CciNuNBKfw
|
Will Mana become a crypto currency in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-10T07:11:39
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T08:31:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tWPthplUz6oOGgzJERAB
|
Will Gonzaga make a 9th-straight Sweet 16 in 2024?
|
On the November 6, 2023 episode of the Eye on College Basketball podcast, Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander discussed predictions for the 2023-2024 men's college basketball season, including: will Gonzaga make a 9th-straight Sweet 16 in 2024?
GP and Norlander both predicted no.
|
2023-11-10T07:03:14
|
2024-03-23T18:02:14
|
2024-03-23T18:02:14
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-T7M4jYAtqNbsgxCM1vOP
|
Will there be a US government shutdown this month (November 17 deadline)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-10T05:27:57
|
2023-11-16T04:49:27
|
2023-11-16T04:49:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-X84KI6UpyEiS7QSgW2eD
|
Will there be a US government shutdown in 2024?
|
The last US government shutdown was between Dec 2018 and Jan 2019 during the Trump administration. There were also government shutdowns in 2018 and 2013. Will the US government shutdown again in 2024 for any amount of time?
Same as Will there be a US government shutdown before the end of 2023 except for 2024.
|
2023-11-10T05:04:09
|
2024-12-24T09:22:10
|
2025-01-05T09:10:58
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Mr889kWK6jSvwuSNIxk2
|
Will the Purdue Boilermakers be the 2024 NCAA Division I men's basketball champions?
|
On the November 2, 2023 episode of the Eye on College Basketball podcast, Matt Norlander announced his predicted 2024 March Madness winner: Purdue.
Will Norlander be right - will the Purdue Boilermakers be the 2024 men's college basketball champions?
|
2023-11-10T04:34:29
|
2024-04-08T20:59:00
|
2024-04-09T06:13:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-raD0m2ZinQsM1k8cmKXI
|
Will at least one more hostage held by Hamas be killed by the IDF before the end of the month?
|
Will attacks carried out by the IDF be directly linked to another hostage casualty before the end of the month? This is going live after the Reuters article (linked) suggesting the death of an Israeli soldier held hostage by Hamas due to an IDF air strike. I’ll do my best to ensure that this market resolves as fair as possible.
Market resolves YES if: At least one hostage held by Hamas is killed by the IDF before the end of November.
Market resolved NO if: No hostages held by Hamas are killed by the IDF before the end of November.
Nov. 9
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-says-israeli-soldier-held-hostage-gaza-killed-by-israeli-air-strike-2023-11-09/
UPDATE 12/1
Currently leaning towards a YES resolution due to the potential deaths of the Bibas family (hostages) due to an Israeli air strike. I have extended the close date in hopes that there will be more information in the coming days. I’ll post any updates here, and if you see something before me confirming or otherwise, please drop it in a comment. Thanks all!
UPDATE 12/5
There continues to be conflicting information regarding the current state of the Bibas family. Linked are several articles which all seem inconclusive. Stay tuned, may extend close.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-776395
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/family-last-child-hostages-gaza-await-their-return-2023-12-04/
UPDATE 12/16
Market extended. It might be a while before we have sufficient evidence to make a conclusion.
FINAL DECISION:
Based on the initial story posted in the description AND the following stories involving the Bibas family members killed both being Hamas claims, market resolved YES. Despite lack of sufficient evidence (in my opinion), this decision was made in the interest of being consistent.
|
2023-11-09T21:46:45
|
2024-01-31T07:45:00
|
2024-02-11T11:50:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VCvFen1iQmvsLTmcVBuK
|
Will global approval of Russia decline in 2023, according to Gallup?
|
Gallup polls residents from countries around the world their opinion of the Russia's leadership, releasing a report around April in the following year. The Rating World Leaders report published in Apr 2023 can be found here.
[image]Will Gallup's next Rating World Leaders report show a decline in global approval of Russia (20% or lower) for 2023?
Related questions:
[markets]
|
2023-11-09T20:28:16
|
2024-04-24T09:27:30
|
2024-04-24T09:27:30
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Cw4oSPrSfKSbC5l85SpA
|
Will Government shutdown November 18th?
|
With only 8 days remaining before current funding is set to expire, House Republicans has still not produced a stopgap bill to prevent a partial government shutdown but has opted to take a 3-day weekend
|
2023-11-09T20:09:14
|
2023-11-17T23:58:56
|
2023-11-17T23:59:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-51tQbnGvFNtUkbi27eSc
|
Will Joe Manchin run for president in 2024?
|
Will Joe Manchin announce a run for president in 2024 (for any party or under any circumstance)?
|
2023-11-09T14:24:12
|
2024-11-04T09:09:54
|
2024-11-04T09:09:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SeRCYby169f9BhIW4akC
|
Will Joe Manchin be on a third-party presidential ticket in 2024?
|
This question resolves to YES if Joe Manchin is a candidate on a third-party (i.e. No Labels) presidential ticket, either as president or vice president Otherwise, this question will resolve to NO.
|
2023-11-09T12:00:13
|
2024-11-09T17:23:20
|
2024-11-09T17:23:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-zM4jFRGq7oRvktPg9fAq
|
Will OpenAI report an incident on January 1, 2024?
|
The market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI reports an incident on their status page: https://status.openai.com
on January 1, 2024, indicating any errors, outages, degraded performance, or issues.
Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."
Recent Outage: https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/09/openai-says-chatgpt-downtime-caused-by-targeted-ddos-attack.html
[image]
|
2023-11-09T08:38:47
|
2024-01-02T10:29:00
|
2024-01-03T09:11:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ZMT1aECtFTuaXkZTPPiE
|
Will Tottenham hotspurs score 5 or more goals in a single Premier League game this season?
|
@8 seems to think so
Only matches after the creation of the market count.
For example, Tottenham - Burnley (5-2) from September 2023 (2 months before market creation) does not qualify. The title says "will", which is used to indicate future events.
|
2023-11-09T08:23:50
|
2024-05-19T14:55:11
|
2024-05-19T14:55:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qMX1NcdXVM5u2Rb1b5V0
|
Will Nawaz Sharif be prime minister of Pakistan in 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-09T08:16:20
|
2024-12-31T23:59:00
|
2025-01-01T12:01:33
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2jSy3gEVgs4GN1v1DaE7
|
Will Australia make the final of the cricket World Cup 2023?
|
Australia 🇦🇺 will play South Africa 🇿🇦 in the second sem final on November 16th. Resolves to yes if Australia go through to the final and no of South Africa advance.
|
2023-11-09T06:39:22
|
2023-11-16T13:58:44
|
2023-11-16T13:58:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Ajn5VPqvy05iFZ8AlcwF
|
Will Brent Crude Reach $100/Barrel Before 2025?
|
Will Brent crude oil touch or exceed a price of $100 per barrel for at least one full trading day before January 1, 2025? This challenge calls for analytical skills to predict whether global market conditions, supply-demand dynamics, and geopolitical factors could drive Brent oil to this significant price point. The bet requires the price to be sustained for 24 consecutive hours, discounting brief spikes, to reflect a true shift in market sentiment. Stake your claim on this commodity's performance and potentially profit from your market insight if the oil benchmark crosses this notable price line.
|
2023-11-09T02:59:13
|
2024-12-31T15:59:00
|
2024-12-31T17:47:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-h0mDtliTFCsbxy3Mb9wX
|
November 2023: Will Bitcoin hit $40,000?
|
If in November 2023 (ET timezone), at least one 30min Coingecko candle hits a high $40,000 or more, this will resolve YES.
In the case of uncertainty, the 7-day high price will be used.
[image]---
➡️ check markets at Tomek's Specials! 😎
|
2023-11-09T00:06:00
|
2023-12-01T07:54:35
|
2023-12-01T07:54:35
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OMybePd45OzMpfOCNtLO
|
Will the next Starship–Superheavy test flight launch on the first attempt?
|
If it launches, resolves YES. If it scrubs or explodes on the pad, resolves NO.
"Attempt" is defined as SpaceX being serious enough about the launch to go live on an official live stream of the launch. This means the actual broadcast going live and displaying a countdown (ticking or otherwise), and not just showing a waiting screen or other filler content.
"Launch" is defined as the vehicle lifting off the pad, however slightly, under thrust from its engines.
If the vehicle explodes and it cannot be reasonably determined whether it was before or after "launch" by this definition, the market resolves N/A.
Market remains open until the next launch attempt of a Starship–Superheavy launch vehicle, or resolves N/A if the development of Starship is abandoned.
I reserve the right to adjust these definitions, within reason, to preserve the spirit of the market in the case that important assumptions in writing them prove to be invalid.
|
2023-11-08T22:21:25
|
2023-11-18T05:03:34
|
2023-11-18T05:03:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YXQnRjmSuTwBOCnc7uMH
|
Will Chelsea beat Manchester City during regular time on Sun, Nov 12, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Chelsea vs Manchester City
📅 Date: Sunday, November 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 16:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Chelsea has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester City has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-11-08T19:26:45
|
2023-11-12T11:30:00
|
2023-11-12T16:02:20
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-JEzXJmSSoMBhaAX9Nabz
|
Will Aston Villa beat Fulham during regular time on Sun, Nov 12, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Aston Villa vs Fulham
📅 Date: Sunday, November 12, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 14:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Aston Villa has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Fulham has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-11-08T19:26:19
|
2023-11-12T09:00:00
|
2023-11-12T16:02:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Y4c8Yh57sejPckfr1dsR
|
[Metaculus] Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
|
Will MDMA be FDA-approved for the treatment of PTSD before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/12785/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if the FDA approves MDMA for the treatment of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) by December 31, 2024
Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-11-08T16:20:44
|
2025-01-01T21:00:00
|
2025-01-03T03:42:13
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a0wOfatNlPXzgZsQe77c
|
Will the S&P 500 (INDEXSP: .INX) close higher on November 24 than it closed on November 17? [Ṁana Leaderboard]{WEEKLY}
|
S&P 500 closes at 1pm ET (6pm UTC) Due To Holiday
Predictions close at 11am ET (4pm UTC) Due To Holiday
Previous Close On 11/17/2023:
[image]Resolves according to the display at Google Finance at the end of the day.
Resolves No If Closes Flat (Same close price as prior day)
If Google Has A Visual Error (eg. Green chart/negative closing price ; Red chart/positive closing price) This Will Resolve To The Closing Price Of Majority Same Numbers Reported By Yahoo/Marketwatch/WSJ/CNBC
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS (Bots are excluded)
I DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN MARKETS I CREATE
|
2023-11-08T15:52:57
|
2023-11-24T10:43:30
|
2023-11-24T10:47:44
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CBouu2SgGvrCmcuCiKfg
|
Will any month in 2024 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
|
Resolution algorithm:
At the end of January 2025, consider the most recently published monthly global temperature anomaly data from NASA, in the Land+Ocean column here, or else wherever they publish data with the same meaning. (It has to be a list of numbers; a sentence in an article saying that a month had a record anomaly does not count.)
If any number for one of the months in 2024 is strictly higher than all the numbers for the months before 2024, the market resolves YES. Otherwise, it resolves NO. If NASA has not published the relevant data by the end of January 2025, it resolves N/A instead.
I may trade in this market.
Edit 11/8: The anomaly has to be higher than the anomaly of every past month, not just the same month of every past year. For example, if the anomaly for July 2024 is higher than the anomaly for every past July, that is not enough for a YES resolution: it also has to be higher than the anomaly for every past January, February, and so on.
|
2023-11-08T15:37:50
|
2025-01-22T18:43:07
|
2025-01-22T18:43:07
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QARaV8rFUk5fphjOQm8L
|
Will Bitcoin Sustain $100K for a Day Before 2025?
|
Let's bet on Bitcoin's value: Can it sustain a price of $100,000 for a full 24-hour period before January 1, 2025? This wager hinges on the endurance of Bitcoin's price, not merely touching but holding at or above the $100K mark from midnight to midnight, based on UTC time. It's a test of Bitcoin's staying power to consistently maintain this landmark level throughout an entire day's cycle on any recognized exchange. Predict whether Bitcoin will solidify its place above this major milestone and secure your chance for a payout if the cryptocurrency giant stands tall
Update 2024-13-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Recognized exchanges must meet all of these criteria:
Established Track Record: Multi-year history of operations and strong industry reputation
Significant Trading Volume: Consistently ranked among top exchanges by trading volume and liquidity
Regulatory Compliance and Security: Known for regulatory compliance, robust security, and transparent operations
Examples include Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp.
|
2023-11-08T15:18:34
|
2024-12-14T16:29:52
|
2024-12-14T16:29:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
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