id stringlengths 8 25 | question stringlengths 13 209 | description stringlengths 0 7.87k | open_date stringlengths 19 20 | close_date stringlengths 19 27 | resolve_date stringlengths 19 20 | resolution stringclasses 2
values | source stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-yGxJhHxdOTRJDCZu15Ly | Will 2024 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria) | Resolution algorithm:
At the end of January 2025, consider the most recent estimates of annual global temperatures (including 2024 data) that have been published online by 1) NASA, 2) NOAA, and 3) Berkeley Earth.
For each of these sources, check whether the estimate for 2024 is strictly higher than the estimates for ... | 2023-11-08T15:00:28 | 2025-01-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-01T12:51:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-bR2wycouvBAzEqzhos2q | Will SpaceX’s next Starship test flight involve a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“? | Resolves YES if there is an event (explosion) during the next Starship test flight that a SpaceX spokesperson (Musk, Shotwell, a presenter on their video stream, a PR person quoted by a major media outlet) calls a "rapid unscheduled disassembly". Synonyms for those words (unplanned instead of unscheduled) also count.
... | 2023-11-08T12:49:38 | 2023-11-18T10:03:55 | 2023-11-18T10:03:55 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JHjyoRcBClfrRfslwEMa | Will Christie say “Donald Duck” again at tonight’s debate | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-08T12:34:22 | 2023-11-08T20:00:00 | 2023-11-08T20:13:57 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-77EzGEFaPdEEqFq7jMF7 | Will a MrBeast publish a YouTube video in which he does malaria prevention philanthropy before the end of 2024? | The video can be published under any of MrBeast's (Jimmy Donaldson's) channels.
The video must involve MrBeast doing philanthropy (giving/donating/helping someone else with his resources for free) that is a direct form of malaria prevention (e.g. providing people with anti-malarial nets or malaria medicine). The video... | 2023-11-08T11:32:15 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:23:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-qw2jF9hV1LNcBuDZTeRd | Will Destiny reach 728k subscribers by November 13? | https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny
https://strawpoll.com/7MZ0AVkqByo | 2023-11-08T11:05:51 | 2023-11-13T03:12:35 | 2023-11-13T03:12:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ydilxUjs8PNiObZ0Q0zY | Will the temperature on any day in December 2023 be lower than the temperature on that day in December 2022? | This question will resolve according to the data on this site. If the daily surface air temperature on any day in December is strictly less than the 2022 temperature on that day, this will resolve to Yes, otherwise, on January 1 it will resolve to No. | 2023-11-08T07:55:04 | 2024-01-06T12:25:49 | 2024-01-06T12:25:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gTyHtpUyfyBdCRqTf526 | Will Bitcoin go up-only until halving? (monthly close) | Will every month close higher than the previous month until halving? The last month that must close higher is the one when the halving occur (likely April 2024).
Month close: the last day of the month, 12:00 am UTC (same as CoinMarketCap uses for monthly candles)
Price source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bit... | 2023-11-08T03:09:31 | 2024-04-30T23:50:26 | 2024-04-30T23:50:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-NjovVwiUoD9b6CVwjuBC | Will Bumble merge or be acquired by the end of 2024? | As Bumble's CEO Whitney Wolf (November 2023 ) will step down, the dating apps industry appears in slight decline.
This will resolve as YES if Bumble Inc will merge with or will be acquired by another company before the end of 2024. | 2023-11-08T02:47:52 | 2024-12-31T14:59:00 | 2025-01-09T11:53:53 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-bigmUbDeA9JyXdfdyIPW | Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024? | Unparalleled misalignments, also known as quadruple entendres, are pairs of non-synonymous phrases where the words in one phrase are each synonyms of the words in the other. Examples include "butt dial//booty call", "father figure//dad bod", "economic class//saving grace" and "unit vector//One Direction." My own contri... | 2023-11-07T21:04:36 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-02-28T13:48:17 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fC3h9eTu93rFwNUqDlSb | Will Joe biden win the popular vote in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-07T20:12:32 | 2024-07-21T14:59:13 | 2024-07-21T14:59:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CdOUw7OrK3ZjB381cGOj | Will economic aid for Ukraine AND Israel be approved by House and Senate, and signed by the President by Nov 30, 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-07T19:44:30 | 2023-11-30T20:59:00 | 2023-11-30T21:18:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-q1ZC9BFqRjfv6lUpIJGO | Will Adam Neumann buy WeWork out of bankruptcy? | [tweet]Adam Neumann is trying to find money to buy the company he founded out of bankruptcy. This market resolves to NO by 2024 year end OR if WeWork emerges from bankruptcy. This market resolves to YES if he does just that.
I won't bet. | 2023-11-07T17:58:06 | 2024-06-26T09:20:06 | 2024-06-26T09:20:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Zu7N929Edc3bTjLaNoBe | Will Logan Sargeant have one of the 20 seats in F1 in 2024 | Will resolve by the first race in 2024. Reserve driver does not count nor if he fills in mid season. Yes will be he has a seat at the beginning of the the season. | 2023-11-07T16:43:45 | 2023-12-01T11:12:09 | 2023-12-01T11:12:09 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ze5TRmYfd7UOdBGidm8b | Will Anthropic release Claude-3 before July 1, 2024? | Anthropic released Claude in March 2023, and Claude-2 in July 2023. Will they release Claude-3 by July 1, 2024?
If the next main Claude model has a different naming scheme, this will resolve yes as long as it is clearly intended to be the next major update to Claude (e.g. Claude 2.1 or Claude 2.5 would not count). | 2023-11-07T15:05:06 | 2024-03-04T09:50:32 | 2024-03-04T09:50:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-YxMxSL7sAHtBd9C9bzuw | Will RFK Jr. win 5 or more states in the 2024 US Presidential Election | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-07T13:44:30 | 2024-11-06T17:14:35 | 2024-11-06T17:14:35 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-IldTCo7FK1ZohzTMLwDz | Will the average of polls FiveThirtyEight on the day of the Iowa Caucus have Trump >=50%? | https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/ | 2023-11-07T12:17:13 | 2024-01-16T10:51:21 | 2024-01-16T10:51:21 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-DhPxhsdvPiiATOBApM6H | Will Destiny talk to DarkViperAU on stream before December? | DarkViperAU has challenged Destiny to debate him on react content. Does Destiny give a shit or not? | 2023-11-07T10:07:21 | 2023-12-01T09:34:01 | 2023-12-01T09:34:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-LWGAiXct9tUZnTKdystE | Will Bitcoin drop below US$31,000 again before the end of the year? | Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below $31,000 at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created Nov. 7th)
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
[link preview] | 2023-11-07T09:55:52 | 2024-01-01T20:38:23 | 2024-01-01T20:38:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nouN7UHLDQnfSyj4alho | Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024? | DeepMind has published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2024 they can beat the best human competitors?
This mar... | 2023-11-07T09:38:20 | 2024-12-31T15:59:00 | 2025-01-09T08:28:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-EkJVLPQChUV3H8DGjXHp | Wil Russia capture Avdiivka by Feb 1, 2024 | This market will resolve yes if Russia is in controll (shaded in red) of Khram Arkhystratyha Mykhayila in Avdiivka by Feb 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET according to ISW maps. If ISW is unavible LiveUA maps will be used to resolve the market.
| 2023-11-07T08:10:34 | 2024-02-02T20:59:00 | 2025-01-04T02:51:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-nMF8ACGjfEJDDLvo0tBa | Will Ohio legalize recreational cannabis in today's election? | Ohio's issue 2 would allow adults 21 and older to buy, possess and grow cannabis. | 2023-11-07T07:32:16 | 2023-11-07T21:22:43 | 2023-11-07T21:22:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-tdRbzkK7TQZmWrcpjHcR | Will the House and Senate have passed a CR (to avoid a shutdown) by 7:00pm on November 17th? | "CR" will count as any legislation that avoids a government shutdown.
The time used for this market will be the announced vote results in the second chamber to pass the bill. In the case of unanimous passage without a roll call vote, discretion will be used to determine the time.
The market will resolve on the first ... | 2023-11-07T06:59:36 | 2023-11-15T23:10:24 | 2023-11-15T23:10:24 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-f3BUCTEeCOT73zgffnN4 | Will RFK Jr pick Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate? | They've flirted in the news. Will Sex-Bomb Cheryl Hines allow RFK Jr to pick Tulsi as his running mate?
Resolves YES when an announcement is made that he has picked her as his running mate. Will resolve NO if he picks someone else.
Resolves NA if he flames out and doesn't pick anyone. | 2023-11-07T02:22:00 | 2024-03-26T12:37:45 | 2024-03-26T12:37:45 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ejpKRv9H8X9vySoFH3WZ | Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2024? | If Destiny and/or the Destiny community is calling it a manifesto, it's probably a manifesto. If it's more than a few pages long and focuses on a single topic, it's probably a manifesto. | 2023-11-07T00:37:54 | 2025-01-01T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T12:12:56 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-0IztSPRMSK36gJZif6KW | Will Germany accept refugees from Gaza by the end of 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-06T19:56:44 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:29:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AggHY6Acrt72eg2b9BRF | Will Bitcoin be worth more than $35,000 on December 31, 2023 at 11:59 PM EST? | Using the coinbase price on 12/31/23 at 11:59 PM EST | 2023-11-06T18:07:31 | 2023-12-31T20:59:00 | 2023-12-31T21:18:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fBMfi9X0iVrQTZfnsrAZ | Will "Napoleon" gross >$28M on its opening (3-day) weekend? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $28,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market.... | 2023-11-06T18:02:34 | 2023-11-27T07:35:55 | 2023-11-27T07:35:55 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-f0KllPkKXRQomt0L54hU | Will Destiny go on Joe Rogan's podcast in 2024? | If he goes on before 2024 question resolves yes
Update: Destiny must appear as the primary guest on an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience that is released to the public in 2024. (If the episode is recorded in 2024, but released in 2025, this will resolve NO.) | 2023-11-06T17:18:17 | 2024-12-31T21:59:00 | 2024-12-31T22:05:37 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-odCCKWOQg2WvnsCwgUOn | Will Ukraine establish the base along the left bank of the Dnipro River before December 2023? | Over the last weeks of October 2023, Ukrainian forces established a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky. They are now building a bridgehead in Krynky to bring in armored vehicles, air defense, and other military equipment to establish the base on the left bank to push the enemy from shelling Khers... | 2023-11-06T16:53:23 | 2023-12-03T09:31:46 | 2023-12-03T09:45:15 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IaopA391DRuytt2NTAy8 | Will Team USA have more than 40 gold medals in 2024 Olympics | Resolve to Yes if Team USA has 41 or more gold medals in 2024 Olympics
Resolve to No if Team USA has 40 or fewer
Average gold medals for USA in the past six summer Olympics = 40.3
2020: 39
2016: 46
2012: 48
2008: 36
2004: 36
2000: 37
| 2023-11-06T16:12:31 | 2024-08-11T06:59:00 | 2024-08-25T11:05:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-V2TYTk43TpFVyIJJFh4H | Will OpenAI make GPT3.5 or 4 model weights open before 2025? | OpenAI has been criticized for not being as open as the name indicated. Recently, they've released the weights of some non-LLM models on their dev day.
https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/openai-devday-predictions?r=eWs
Do you think they release their LLM weights?
GPT3.5 or superior models only count.
Modified... | 2023-11-06T16:12:16 | 2024-12-31T06:59:00 | 2025-01-19T20:44:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-yMdfLkcdmzE164miyfng | Will Crystal Palace beat Everton during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League | ⚽ Crystal Palace vs Everton
📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Crystal Palace has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular t... | 2023-11-06T16:03:02 | 2023-11-11T10:00:00 | 2023-11-11T10:06:48 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-mWaSHWlw7QiBGJFgDyIK | Will Manchester United beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League | ⚽ Manchester United vs Luton
📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Manchester United has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regul... | 2023-11-06T16:02:49 | 2023-11-11T09:48:58 | 2023-11-11T09:48:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-C7tveZBYdhJQXiL7xnnp | Will Arsenal beat Burnley during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League | ⚽ Arsenal vs Burnley
📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Arsenal has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stopp... | 2023-11-06T16:02:36 | 2023-11-11T10:00:00 | 2023-11-11T10:05:23 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-JV2vmEN1DTte4wVnpbBs | Will the IDF gain control of Al-Shifa hospital by the end of November? | Resolves YES if the IDF has control of the Al-Shifa hospital complex for a period of at least 24 hours by the end of November. | 2023-11-06T14:15:15 | 2023-11-16T08:47:46 | 2023-11-16T08:47:46 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xkxDcQAkaq74QZ9mo2pn | Will Nikki Haley be the next President of the United States? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-06T13:42:51 | 2024-11-06T20:59:00 | 2024-11-07T04:39:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M1glCmjTDf7H0gKEXt7T | Will Sweden join NATO before June 30th, 2024? | Same market as this one, but with an end date of mid-2024 vs. the beginning of 2024.
Resolution criteria will be the same as this Metaculus questions: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/
but with a close date of 2024-06-30 11:59 pm
| 2023-11-06T13:37:14 | 2024-03-07T09:19:49 | 2024-03-07T09:19:49 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-3Twt7MQTexE8qchipKxk | Will Joe Biden fall again during his first term as President? | Same criteria as this market:
https://manifold.markets/ImplyGate/will-joe-biden-be-seen-falling-down?r=UGVhbnV0Q29va2llRmFudGFDaGVlc3lQYQ
Will resolve YES if a real video of Joe Biden falling during his first term as President (Ending on January 20th 2025) is shared on the internet. The fall must be unintentional, an... | 2023-11-06T12:45:33 | 2025-01-21T20:59:00 | 2025-01-21T21:01:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4ifOkjQugRS2VPjByYQM | ⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat Greece 🇬🇷 in game 10 of the Euro Qualifiers 🇪🇺? | France plays Greece (in Greece) on their last game of Euro Qualifiers 2024 on November 21, will they win? | 2023-11-06T11:51:38 | 2023-11-21T13:42:17 | 2023-11-21T13:42:17 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-10q98ofmY1CcnMx0E2dL | [Metaculus] Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? | Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19810/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the follow... | 2023-11-06T11:48:34 | 2025-01-02T06:00:00 | 2025-01-03T03:38:39 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-GKKRKRHFnR9TVD75UQVW | Will Israel continue to have Gaza city encircled by the end of 2023? | I rarely revamp a description, but I needed to on this one.
This question resolves YES if there is still an ongoing encirclement/siege by the end of 2023.
This question resolves NO if the encirclement ends (Example: IDF captures Gaza City, IDF retreats and ends the encirclement, Hamas breaks the encirclement by count... | 2023-11-06T11:37:49 | 2024-01-02T01:42:51 | 2024-01-02T01:43:00 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-5EvaDSUtKyzvVH15JPhj | Will Bernie Sanders file for reelection to the Senate before 2024? | An FEC filing for Senator Bernie Sanders's reelection in 2024 prior to 1/1/24 12:00am will cause this to resolve YES.
A retirement announcement from the Senator's office, or failing to file by the end of 2023, will cause this to resolve NO. | 2023-11-06T10:46:57 | 2023-12-31T20:57:05 | 2023-12-31T20:57:05 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-uAWd0ItOiyD5K7ai5f7P | Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be a top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft? | Resolves YES if Harrison Jr. is selected at pick 1, 2 or 3.
Resolves NO if he is not (even if he is not drafted or not in the draft class). | 2023-11-06T09:25:45 | 2024-04-28T18:59:02 | 2024-04-28T18:59:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-kvt8zRjl2ov3iCZ7xIy5 | Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of 2024? [description] | Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.
Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).
Freeway meaning a segment o... | 2023-11-06T09:11:17 | 2024-12-31T23:59:00 | 2025-01-01T00:04:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-4FUbB4X3MdOovcg5udJB | Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q3 (September) 2024? [description] | Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.
Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).
Freeway meaning a segment o... | 2023-11-06T09:11:02 | 2024-09-30T23:59:00 | 2024-10-01T12:02:38 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-pD3XNocrvuIQnf8XH5PH | Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q1 (March) 2024? [description] | Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise.
Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet).
Freeway meaning a segment o... | 2023-11-06T09:10:16 | 2024-03-31T23:59:00 | 2024-04-01T11:15:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-U3TdfA0GjcsqfR2lCbgf | Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the Las Vegas GP 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-06T07:00:20 | 2023-11-18T23:37:33 | 2023-11-18T23:37:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-nxwDIvUgvjSYk0MMjNKE | Will Max Verstappen win the Las Vegas GP 2023? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-06T06:56:38 | 2023-11-18T23:36:33 | 2023-11-18T23:36:37 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-xVaPbBUSDmziuDO3mFyw | Will Israeli soldiers perform ground invasion in south Gaza before 2024? | For now it's seems that IDF ground operation is focused in north Gaza. All citizens are requested to move to the south. If a significant military force (more then 200 soldiers) will enter south Gaza, this question will be resolved as Yes. South Gaza is anything south of Deir al-Balah | 2023-11-06T06:40:02 | 2023-12-05T01:24:16 | 2023-12-05T01:24:16 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-Df3rnSeoxKgNjSzBQ0sF | Will "Napoleon" gross >$25M on its opening (3-day) weekend? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market.... | 2023-11-06T06:16:17 | 2023-11-27T16:28:06 | 2023-11-27T16:28:06 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-6j28fBH5IuPOlX4wphZS | First Starship–Superheavy commercial payload in 2024? | Resolves YES if, in 2024, SpaceX's Starship–Superheavy vehicle successfully transports a commercial payload to orbit or beyond.
The payload must be for a non-governmental, paying customer. This excludes SpaceX's Starlink satellites or any other payloads owned by SpaceX.
Joint private-government payloads are excluded ... | 2023-11-06T01:14:58 | 2025-01-01T04:59:00 | 2025-01-01T12:18:54 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Ps41FOBGjkWl1wFCWyIe | Will Wesley So qualify for the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament? | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024?useskin=vector
The 2024 Candidates Tournament will be an eight-player chess tournament, held to determine the challenger for the 2024 World Chess Championship match.
The highest rated player in the January 2024 rating list who has not yet qualified for the Cand... | 2023-11-06T00:31:15 | 2023-12-31T09:24:23 | 2023-12-31T09:24:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-5DPbDMA0tqhKaeK0ymm1 | Will the New York Giants draft a Quarterback on their first draft pick? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-05T20:01:03 | 2024-04-25T17:55:20 | 2024-04-25T17:55:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Pd2Sdbmy6USpMzAkdO6f | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Miami beat #4 Florida State? | 2023-11-11 at 3:30 PM ET in Tallahassee, FL. Line: Florida State -15. | 2023-11-05T17:56:24 | 2023-11-11T16:15:14 | 2023-11-11T16:15:14 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RddmaTiNRaEfUuh3SUMZ | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #14 Tennessee beat #16 Missouri? | 2023-11-11 at 3:30 PM ET in Columbia, MO. Line: Missouri +1. | 2023-11-05T17:56:14 | 2023-11-11T15:53:24 | 2023-11-11T15:53:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-KqeBTZZua1cslxMDTVih | Will a foreign nation airdrop aid to the Palestinians in Gaza? | Conditions for a "Yes" resolution:
If a foreign nation publicly announces an airdrop mission to deliver aid to Gaza.
If credible news sources report on an ongoing or completed airdrop mission by a foreign nation in support of Gaza.
If this event occurs from now onwards.
The Jordan airdrop is not eligible as it occu... | 2023-11-05T16:40:31 | 2023-11-30T12:12:39 | 2023-11-30T12:12:39 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-yaGZmMKNRdFToa7TrPeR | NFL🏈-Week 10 Will the Houston Texans win their NFL Game against the Cincinnati Bengals on 11/12 | Resolved based on Game Day Results on 11/12
I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game. | 2023-11-05T13:32:34 | 2023-11-12T12:30:00 | 2023-11-12T16:05:50 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZGGnCkR4Wxl0Jc06zMZR | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #2 Michigan beat #9 Penn State? | 2023-11-11 at 12 PM ET in University Park, PA. Line: Penn State +6.5. | 2023-11-05T12:40:38 | 2023-11-11T12:46:42 | 2023-11-11T12:46:42 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-A3O53L39kaaUKiVSC6Vj | Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Monday November 20 in Kansas City against the Eagles? | To prevent sniping the question will close on November 19. | 2023-11-05T11:44:03 | 2023-11-19T20:59:00 | 2023-11-20T19:11:26 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8ef9evI0Ycsq3hxbIajl | NFL 🏈 - Week 10 -- Will the San Francisco Forty-Niners win their NFL game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 11/12 | Resolved Based on Game Results on 11/12. Trading will close mid-game around noon PST.
I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game. | 2023-11-05T10:58:05 | 2023-11-12T12:39:00 | 2023-11-12T15:10:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-n2gmnmoOrr8zMgwHoM9L | Will grok AI be available for general use in November 2023? | Will an average person living in the US be able to access grok AI by x.ai in November of 2023?
[link preview] | 2023-11-05T10:15:34 | 2023-11-30T22:16:18 | 2023-11-30T22:16:18 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8F83YHc9Gfy82C4l5if6 | Will the Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election? | British Columbia's next general election is set for 19 October 2024, though it may be called earlier.
Since 1991, the BC Liberals and BC NDP have been the to two largest political parties. In 2023, the Liberals changed their party name to BC United, and one of their elected members crossed the floor to become leader ... | 2023-11-05T09:29:29 | 2024-10-19T20:26:11 | 2024-10-19T20:26:11 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-FE8E1eVeHw4KoqmnvQxP | Will FTX dump all its accumulated crypto on CEXes in Nov 2023 | FTX is moving its crypto to centralized exchanges. They haven't sold them yet. But it is a ticking time bomb which might potentially wipe of all the marketcap gains that happened in the past month. Will they pull the trigger this month? | 2023-11-05T06:46:17 | 2023-11-30T07:59:00 | 2023-11-30T12:20:49 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XKAVzzLDP8rZ5AzbN6Bh | Will the IDF engage in a temporary ceasefire in Gaza before 12/15/23? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-05T04:32:07 | 2023-11-21T17:37:35 | 2023-11-21T17:37:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-IwTVGP01UOnxVZjcT1fB | Will Bayern Munich win The Champions league 23/24 | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-05T04:05:04 | 2024-05-08T14:39:04 | 2024-05-08T14:39:04 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-XIk4QeXZcKMq1wdBIpmk | Will RFK Jr be the most voted candidate in at least one state in the 2024 presidential election? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T18:05:08 | 2024-11-06T17:14:42 | 2024-11-06T17:14:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-iwNWD0BuPrluKcaCGElw | Elections - Brandon Presley (Democrat) will win the Governors seat in Mississippi. NOV 7th election. | Resolved based on the victor of the Mississippi gubernatorial elections being held on Nov7th. Official victor only please and not that announced by Election deniers. I will not need any official concession and will use the official AP, NYT, WSJ, ABC,NBC, CBS, Fox declarations as proof. | 2023-11-04T17:48:54 | 2023-11-07T21:18:16 | 2023-11-07T21:18:16 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-CUiaHVuhORRQPDMqKpaH | Will a UFC event take place in the MSG Sphere in Las Vegas in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T16:30:42 | 2024-09-14T15:03:00 | 2024-09-15T15:43:35 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-7ZSWdTQ8FmCsRx2uAvma | Will the New England Patriots beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 9 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season? | Yes - Patriots win
No - Commanders win or tie
N/A - Game gets canceled | 2023-11-04T15:03:45 | 2023-11-05T13:09:41 | 2023-11-05T13:09:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-gTERy6RILi57YKqRHKeL | Will the MHA (My Hero Academia) manga end in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T14:29:52 | 2024-07-23T05:38:32 | 2024-07-23T05:38:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-fhk5JPrxKmFPlD19cTqv | ⚽ Will Harry Kane break Lewandowski's record (41 Bundesliga goals) this season? | This will resolve YES, if Harry Kane scores more than 41 goals in Bundesliga this season.
---
Record 41 – The Bundesliga’s fabled number for most goals in a season was once 40 after Gerd Müller set a seemingly impossible bar in 1971/72. That was until Lewandowski came along in 2020/21 and scored 41 times in only 29 ap... | 2023-11-04T13:28:42 | 2024-05-19T08:07:19 | 2024-05-19T08:07:19 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-Czb0cqi7OYgkxlQOSAbj | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Arizona State defeat UCLA? | Kickoff: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - 6:00 PM PST
Rose Bowl - Pasadena, California
Week 11 Pac-12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-col
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-state-defe-53821e911b41(this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-or
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-oregon
@/jks/-2023-nc... | 2023-11-04T13:06:59 | 2023-11-11T21:51:18 | 2023-11-11T21:51:18 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-k8Udh5A4Oyu1c8YjBQ6U | Will AAPL close above $200 per share at the end of 2024? | Resolves YES if the official close price of Apple shares on Dec. 31, 2024 is $200 or above. Resolves NO if below. Splits will be accounted for if necessary.
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/forecast/# | 2023-11-04T12:02:43 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T15:49:05 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-WmSyOTbR3YwwQ9l3loZ5 | Will North Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023? | This is a duplicate of another question but only considering Northern Gaza.
Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel ... | 2023-11-04T11:26:56 | 2024-01-01T14:59:00 | 2024-01-07T14:27:02 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-WzyYZfZLxfGHZuAEVxvm | Will "Napoleon" gross >$22M on its opening (3-day) weekend? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $22,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market.... | 2023-11-04T11:18:36 | 2023-11-28T20:34:42 | 2023-11-28T20:34:42 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-RXiCGFAPqwonSYz73VFr | Will Wonka get above 83% Certified Fresh rating on RT? | Will the Wonka movie staring Timothee Chalamet get above 83% Certified Fresh (an 83%=NO)?
Cerified Fresh: at least 75% rating and must have a minimum of 80 reviews, including 5 top citics.
https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wonka
Release Date: Dec 15, 2023
Question Resolves: Dec 18, 2023 at 11:59PM MST | 2023-11-04T11:16:12 | 2023-12-18T22:59:00 | 2023-12-18T23:00:53 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6Cn9qIG9xRkMvycwm19X | Will Apple buy Disney in 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T11:06:36 | 2024-12-30T14:59:00 | 2024-12-30T17:54:20 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-rXelzhcypSCmQw9YtURS | 🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Arizona defeat Colorado? | Kickoff: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - Time TBD MST
Folsom Field - Boulder, Colorado
Week 11 Pac-12 games:
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-col (this market)
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-state-defe-53821e911b41
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-or
@/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-oregon
@/jks/-2023-n... | 2023-11-04T09:41:01 | 2023-11-11T14:30:00 | 2023-11-11T15:01:43 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-ixkkh0TayEpVXg1a9Exa | [Metaculus] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? | Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19593/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson remains the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of... | 2023-11-04T08:41:15 | 2024-01-02T04:00:00 | 2024-01-02T07:29:06 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-RJ1DH1FnlkXpFi8DgZfE | Will SBF be found guilty of any future felonies before 2025? | After the first trial. | 2023-11-04T04:26:49 | 2025-03-10T14:06:29 | 2025-03-10T14:06:29 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-xYUzOyKQNlIuM8tiWJAc | Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states] | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any conflict involving three or more recognized nation states in the Middle East occurs before the end of the day on December 31, 2024, Eastern Time. For the purpose of this market, a "conflict" is defined as an active disagreement or clash, specifically involving military actions o... | 2023-11-04T03:57:58 | 2024-11-09T15:59:00 | 2024-12-30T07:32:33 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-UUGJkcogCEGGYqXZVsVM | Will Mike Johnson defend conversion therapy on the record as speaker? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T00:43:25 | 2025-01-06T20:59:00 | 2025-02-03T22:16:23 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h1xf8J6Gsd3toQJ5joVH | Will a NATO member state deploy troops to Gaza as peacekeepers by end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-04T00:26:22 | 2024-12-31T20:59:00 | 2025-01-02T02:01:27 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-zUvLPxbpor31SF4MiPKt | Will Starship orbital flight attempts occur in both November and December 2023? | Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market.
For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test.
I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel... | 2023-11-03T17:18:46 | 2023-12-31T21:59:00 | 2023-12-31T22:03:13 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-ZKz58PXJXqd3vVDIIlx7 | Will the FED drop interest rates at least once before the end of 2024? | The FOMC meets eight times a year to adjust the federal funds rate. The last 2024 decision date is scheduled for December 18, 2024. | 2023-11-03T15:13:56 | 2024-09-19T03:58:58 | 2024-09-19T03:58:58 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-F1NgQZLOg5ZOW1wiDBXP | Will Javier Milei have a haircut until the end of this year? | EDIT FOR CLARIFICATION:
Resolves YES if there are noteworthy changes to Javier Mileis hairstyle from when the question was created until the end of the year. Inauguration ceremony will take place on December 10 and will be a good test.
Pictures and news will be used as a markers.
Resolves NO if he keeps his exact ... | 2023-11-03T13:46:01 | 2023-12-31T18:59:00 | 2024-01-01T13:48:11 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-w5q1anB7fV8Ax6KKZGyg | Will geometry dash 2.2 release in November 2023? | Swedish time zone.
Any platform counts (iOS, Android, Steam)
I will bet on this market.
Since I'm less active on manifold nowadays, any mod can resolve for me if I don't resolve promptly. | 2023-11-03T12:12:50 | 2023-12-01T05:02:44 | 2023-12-01T05:02:44 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-YZ270JPg5Xl00ivcplWL | NFL 🏈 -Week10 - Will the Atlanta Falcons win their NFL Game against the Arizona Cardinals on 11/12? | Resolved Based on Game Day Score on 11/12. Trading will close a few hours after the game start
I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game. | 2023-11-03T11:39:57 | 2023-11-12T16:08:01 | 2023-11-12T16:08:01 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-HPBm0gZ7QMtL9KOhs8uh | [Metaculus] Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? | Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/11528/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 1, 2025, any Costco location in the continental United... | 2023-11-03T10:27:02 | 2025-01-01T16:01:00 | 2025-01-02T10:26:43 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-AxHafmAIRqXLzbiX6lHy | Will The Marvels gross >$65M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
... | 2023-11-03T10:23:48 | 2023-11-12T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T08:56:30 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-fjV5tNyuK5GEpbziTWXk | Will The Marvels gross >$60M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
... | 2023-11-03T10:23:32 | 2023-11-12T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T09:48:24 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-90NuRTIUP3J2mWOfBPRu | Will The Marvels gross >$55M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
... | 2023-11-03T10:23:13 | 2023-11-12T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T09:48:28 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-M7L5ZsdRxAnK7HI9ujAU | Will The Marvels gross >$50M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
... | 2023-11-03T10:22:51 | 2023-11-12T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T09:48:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-h2969OB50dvpY2wFJ0JC | Will The Marvels gross >$45M on opening weekend? | This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
... | 2023-11-03T10:22:30 | 2023-11-12T20:59:00 | 2023-11-14T09:48:32 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-zCViv6JFc3VAtMqqgDB0 | [Metaculus] Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? | Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/6049/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- an... | 2023-11-03T10:21:54 | 2024-12-12T09:24:38 | 2024-12-12T09:24:38 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-phcBCtkoCeLQ6RBrbejG | Will Israel force more than 5,000 Palestinians with Israeli work permits back into Gaza during the invasion? | At least 3500 Gazans were held in Israeli prison following 10/7 despite no connection to the attack and then today were taken to the border of Gaza and forced to REENTER!!!! Will this continue until 5000+ Gazan refugees are forced to reenter the refugee camp by the end of 2023? | 2023-11-03T08:50:37 | 2023-12-31T19:54:59 | 2023-12-31T19:54:59 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-z9oI4kLIBG9QbEryZoVd | Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the New York Jets on Monday night? | Jets are at home. Chargers favored by 3.5 points | 2023-11-03T07:32:57 | 2023-11-06T20:59:00 | 2023-11-07T04:04:54 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-vGfPUstoEBOJt0u2PaOZ | Will Kalshi be running any US election market by the end of 2024? (keyword: politics) | Kalshi currently do not offer any markets on election due to regulation. Will that have changed by the end of 2024?
https://kalshi.com/blog/article/on-regulated-election-markets | 2023-11-03T06:57:29 | 2024-09-12T12:27:31 | 2024-09-12T12:27:31 | yes | MANIFOLD |
mani-6uS1kYf19UZNvYWjw7HR | Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-03T06:06:07 | 2025-01-01T20:06:31 | 2025-01-01T20:06:31 | no | MANIFOLD |
mani-8mHLkz3j3coNDfyVljdm | Will the Israeli Hamas war expand to include Hezbollah before March 30, 2024? | {'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]} | 2023-11-03T05:26:55 | 2024-03-29T20:59:00 | 2024-03-30T04:30:15 | no | MANIFOLD |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.