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forecasting

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mani-yGxJhHxdOTRJDCZu15Ly
Will 2024 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)
Resolution algorithm: At the end of January 2025, consider the most recent estimates of annual global temperatures (including 2024 data) that have been published online by 1) NASA, 2) NOAA, and 3) Berkeley Earth. For each of these sources, check whether the estimate for 2024 is strictly higher than the estimates for all other past years (since 1900, say). (The most precise published version of the data counts. If a source publishes one dataset where it's 1.15 versus 1.15, and another where it's 1.152 versus 1.151, that counts as strictly higher. If it publishes only the former dataset, it does not count as strictly higher, even if the latter is true "under the hood".) The market resolves YES if: Three sources provided estimates, and at least two showed 2024 as the warmest. Two sources provided estimates, and both showed 2024 as the warmest. One source provided estimates, and it showed 2024 as the warmest. The market resolves NO if: Three sources provided estimates, and at most one showed 2024 as the warmest. Two sources provided estimates, and at most one showed 2024 as the warmest. One source provided estimates, and it did not show 2024 as the warmest. The market resolves N/A if none of the sources provided estimates. The resolution will ignore everything that isn't a list of numbers. For example, if NASA writes in an article that 2024 was the warmest year on record, but its most recently published list of annual numbers has 2024 as lower or equal compared to some other year, that counts as NASA not showing 2024 as the warmest year. Since I've done my best to make the resolution criteria well-defined and based on public data, I'll probably bet in this market.
2023-11-08T15:00:28
2025-01-31T23:59:00
2025-02-01T12:51:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-bR2wycouvBAzEqzhos2q
Will SpaceX’s next Starship test flight involve a “rapid unscheduled disassembly“?
Resolves YES if there is an event (explosion) during the next Starship test flight that a SpaceX spokesperson (Musk, Shotwell, a presenter on their video stream, a PR person quoted by a major media outlet) calls a "rapid unscheduled disassembly". Synonyms for those words (unplanned instead of unscheduled) also count. The close date is open ended and will be extended if the next flight is delayed.
2023-11-08T12:49:38
2023-11-18T10:03:55
2023-11-18T10:03:55
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JHjyoRcBClfrRfslwEMa
Will Christie say “Donald Duck” again at tonight’s debate
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-08T12:34:22
2023-11-08T20:00:00
2023-11-08T20:13:57
no
MANIFOLD
mani-77EzGEFaPdEEqFq7jMF7
Will a MrBeast publish a YouTube video in which he does malaria prevention philanthropy before the end of 2024?
The video can be published under any of MrBeast's (Jimmy Donaldson's) channels. The video must involve MrBeast doing philanthropy (giving/donating/helping someone else with his resources for free) that is a direct form of malaria prevention (e.g. providing people with anti-malarial nets or malaria medicine). The video must bring up malaria in dialogue or on-screen writing. See also: (https://manifold.markets/embed/cash/will-a-mrbeast-publish-a-youtube-vi-e0bab3ddf6b2)
2023-11-08T11:32:15
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:23:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-qw2jF9hV1LNcBuDZTeRd
Will Destiny reach 728k subscribers by November 13?
https://socialblade.com/youtube/c/destiny https://strawpoll.com/7MZ0AVkqByo
2023-11-08T11:05:51
2023-11-13T03:12:35
2023-11-13T03:12:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ydilxUjs8PNiObZ0Q0zY
Will the temperature on any day in December 2023 be lower than the temperature on that day in December 2022?
This question will resolve according to the data on this site. If the daily surface air temperature on any day in December is strictly less than the 2022 temperature on that day, this will resolve to Yes, otherwise, on January 1 it will resolve to No.
2023-11-08T07:55:04
2024-01-06T12:25:49
2024-01-06T12:25:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gTyHtpUyfyBdCRqTf526
Will Bitcoin go up-only until halving? (monthly close)
Will every month close higher than the previous month until halving? The last month that must close higher is the one when the halving occur (likely April 2024). Month close: the last day of the month, 12:00 am UTC (same as CoinMarketCap uses for monthly candles) Price source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ (regular view) In other words, every candle on this view must be green until halving: [image]
2023-11-08T03:09:31
2024-04-30T23:50:26
2024-04-30T23:50:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-NjovVwiUoD9b6CVwjuBC
Will Bumble merge or be acquired by the end of 2024?
As Bumble's CEO Whitney Wolf (November 2023 ) will step down, the dating apps industry appears in slight decline. This will resolve as YES if Bumble Inc will merge with or will be acquired by another company before the end of 2024.
2023-11-08T02:47:52
2024-12-31T14:59:00
2025-01-09T11:53:53
no
MANIFOLD
mani-bigmUbDeA9JyXdfdyIPW
Will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024?
Unparalleled misalignments, also known as quadruple entendres, are pairs of non-synonymous phrases where the words in one phrase are each synonyms of the words in the other. Examples include "butt dial//booty call", "father figure//dad bod", "economic class//saving grace" and "unit vector//One Direction." My own contributions include "Black Power//dark energy" and "Endzone//final destination//last resort." See canonical list here: https://rickiheicklen.com/unparalleled-misalignments.html Surprisingly, I am unable to get any LLM to generate novel unparalleled misalignments, despite many attempts at prompt engineering. This is maybe the first noncontrived purely linguistic* task that most humans I know can do (though usually with substantial effort) and LLMs appear to completely fail at. (There's also some theoretical reasons to do with sparsity that might suggest LLMs should in-principle be worse at this type of task, relatively speaking). I'm interested in whether unaided LLMs that aren't deliberately designed for this type of game (so no fine-tuning on this specific task) can reliably generate unparalleled misalignments in the near future. Prompt engineering is fine. The model should be unaided (eg can't use the internet, can't run Word2Vec scripts, etc). So will any foundation models/LLMs be able to reliably come up with novel unparalleled misalignments before EOY 2024? I will resolve this question positive if I or someone with proprietary access to an LLM can prompt an LLM, and without much difficulty, it can reliably (80%+ of the time) generate at least one unparalleled misalignment I haven't heard before, with cleverness similar to the human examples on Ricki's site, when asked to give 5 examples. Otherwise, this question resolves negative. *as opposed to a task that requires other skills, like counting (generate a list of words with 5 letters that start with "a"), arithmetic (long division), physics reasoning, or spatial positioning (Suduko) Update 2024-18-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For an unparalleled misalignment to be counted as valid: Both phrases must use real, commonly used metaphors/phrases The words must be true synonyms (e.g., 'market' is not considered a synonym of 'place') The resulting phrases must be recognizable expressions (e.g., 'city myth' would not count as it's not a common phrase)
2023-11-07T21:04:36
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-02-28T13:48:17
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fC3h9eTu93rFwNUqDlSb
Will Joe biden win the popular vote in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-07T20:12:32
2024-07-21T14:59:13
2024-07-21T14:59:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CdOUw7OrK3ZjB381cGOj
Will economic aid for Ukraine AND Israel be approved by House and Senate, and signed by the President by Nov 30, 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-07T19:44:30
2023-11-30T20:59:00
2023-11-30T21:18:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-q1ZC9BFqRjfv6lUpIJGO
Will Adam Neumann buy WeWork out of bankruptcy?
[tweet]Adam Neumann is trying to find money to buy the company he founded out of bankruptcy. This market resolves to NO by 2024 year end OR if WeWork emerges from bankruptcy. This market resolves to YES if he does just that. I won't bet.
2023-11-07T17:58:06
2024-06-26T09:20:06
2024-06-26T09:20:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Zu7N929Edc3bTjLaNoBe
Will Logan Sargeant have one of the 20 seats in F1 in 2024
Will resolve by the first race in 2024. Reserve driver does not count nor if he fills in mid season. Yes will be he has a seat at the beginning of the the season.
2023-11-07T16:43:45
2023-12-01T11:12:09
2023-12-01T11:12:09
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ze5TRmYfd7UOdBGidm8b
Will Anthropic release Claude-3 before July 1, 2024?
Anthropic released Claude in March 2023, and Claude-2 in July 2023. Will they release Claude-3 by July 1, 2024? If the next main Claude model has a different naming scheme, this will resolve yes as long as it is clearly intended to be the next major update to Claude (e.g. Claude 2.1 or Claude 2.5 would not count).
2023-11-07T15:05:06
2024-03-04T09:50:32
2024-03-04T09:50:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-YxMxSL7sAHtBd9C9bzuw
Will RFK Jr. win 5 or more states in the 2024 US Presidential Election
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-07T13:44:30
2024-11-06T17:14:35
2024-11-06T17:14:35
no
MANIFOLD
mani-IldTCo7FK1ZohzTMLwDz
Will the average of polls FiveThirtyEight on the day of the Iowa Caucus have Trump >=50%?
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/
2023-11-07T12:17:13
2024-01-16T10:51:21
2024-01-16T10:51:21
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-DhPxhsdvPiiATOBApM6H
Will Destiny talk to DarkViperAU on stream before December?
DarkViperAU has challenged Destiny to debate him on react content. Does Destiny give a shit or not?
2023-11-07T10:07:21
2023-12-01T09:34:01
2023-12-01T09:34:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-LWGAiXct9tUZnTKdystE
Will Bitcoin drop below US$31,000 again before the end of the year?
Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below $31,000 at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created Nov. 7th) https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/ [link preview]
2023-11-07T09:55:52
2024-01-01T20:38:23
2024-01-01T20:38:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nouN7UHLDQnfSyj4alho
Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
DeepMind has published a pre-print stating that their AlphaCode AI is as good as a median human competitor in competitive programming. See https://deepmind.com/blog/article/Competitive-programming-with-AlphaCode Will DeepMind, or anyone else provide evidence in 2024 they can beat the best human competitors? This market is a duplicate of Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023? except for the year 2024.
2023-11-07T09:38:20
2024-12-31T15:59:00
2025-01-09T08:28:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-EkJVLPQChUV3H8DGjXHp
Wil Russia capture Avdiivka by Feb 1, 2024
This market will resolve yes if Russia is in controll (shaded in red) of Khram Arkhystratyha Mykhayila in Avdiivka by Feb 1, 2024 11:59 PM ET according to ISW maps. If ISW is unavible LiveUA maps will be used to resolve the market.
2023-11-07T08:10:34
2024-02-02T20:59:00
2025-01-04T02:51:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-nMF8ACGjfEJDDLvo0tBa
Will Ohio legalize recreational cannabis in today's election?
Ohio's issue 2 would allow adults 21 and older to buy, possess and grow cannabis.
2023-11-07T07:32:16
2023-11-07T21:22:43
2023-11-07T21:22:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-tdRbzkK7TQZmWrcpjHcR
Will the House and Senate have passed a CR (to avoid a shutdown) by 7:00pm on November 17th?
"CR" will count as any legislation that avoids a government shutdown. The time used for this market will be the announced vote results in the second chamber to pass the bill. In the case of unanimous passage without a roll call vote, discretion will be used to determine the time. The market will resolve on the first CR to pass both chambers, without modification (i.e. the House passing something and the Senate then modifying it and passsing it WILL NOT COUNT -- the hypothetical modified bill must then be passed by the House for it to count for this market). The President signing the bill will not have any bearing on this market.
2023-11-07T06:59:36
2023-11-15T23:10:24
2023-11-15T23:10:24
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-f3BUCTEeCOT73zgffnN4
Will RFK Jr pick Tulsi Gabbard as his running mate?
They've flirted in the news. Will Sex-Bomb Cheryl Hines allow RFK Jr to pick Tulsi as his running mate? Resolves YES when an announcement is made that he has picked her as his running mate. Will resolve NO if he picks someone else. Resolves NA if he flames out and doesn't pick anyone.
2023-11-07T02:22:00
2024-03-26T12:37:45
2024-03-26T12:37:45
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ejpKRv9H8X9vySoFH3WZ
Will Destiny publish a manifesto in 2024?
If Destiny and/or the Destiny community is calling it a manifesto, it's probably a manifesto. If it's more than a few pages long and focuses on a single topic, it's probably a manifesto.
2023-11-07T00:37:54
2025-01-01T20:59:00
2025-01-02T12:12:56
no
MANIFOLD
mani-0IztSPRMSK36gJZif6KW
Will Germany accept refugees from Gaza by the end of 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-06T19:56:44
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T22:29:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AggHY6Acrt72eg2b9BRF
Will Bitcoin be worth more than $35,000 on December 31, 2023 at 11:59 PM EST?
Using the coinbase price on 12/31/23 at 11:59 PM EST
2023-11-06T18:07:31
2023-12-31T20:59:00
2023-12-31T21:18:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fBMfi9X0iVrQTZfnsrAZ
Will "Napoleon" gross >$28M on its opening (3-day) weekend?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $28,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market. Note: The Box Office Mojo "Domestic Opening" is typically the 3-day total. "Napoleon" releases during Thanksgiving week, so some opening numbers will cite the 5-day instead. Regardless, I will use whatever is listed by Box Office Mojo. (Example: For Devotion (2022), released around the same time last year, the opening gross listed is $5.9M). The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Ofifce Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source. I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one). If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask. [link preview]
2023-11-06T18:02:34
2023-11-27T07:35:55
2023-11-27T07:35:55
no
MANIFOLD
mani-f0KllPkKXRQomt0L54hU
Will Destiny go on Joe Rogan's podcast in 2024?
If he goes on before 2024 question resolves yes Update: Destiny must appear as the primary guest on an episode of The Joe Rogan Experience that is released to the public in 2024. (If the episode is recorded in 2024, but released in 2025, this will resolve NO.)
2023-11-06T17:18:17
2024-12-31T21:59:00
2024-12-31T22:05:37
no
MANIFOLD
mani-odCCKWOQg2WvnsCwgUOn
Will Ukraine establish the base along the left bank of the Dnipro River before December 2023?
Over the last weeks of October 2023, Ukrainian forces established a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River near Krynky. They are now building a bridgehead in Krynky to bring in armored vehicles, air defense, and other military equipment to establish the base on the left bank to push the enemy from shelling Kherson and conduct a large-scale military operation at a later date. The Ukrainian 38th Marine Brigade units remain dangerously exposed. Although Russian units also lack the equipment and manpower in the area due to employing troops in the ongoing clashes in Avdiyvka and Robotyne, Russians still have time and capability to push back the bridgehead in the near time. Will Ukraine manage to establish the beachhead along the left bank of the Dnipro River at or near Krynky before December 2023? This will be resolved by via ISW determination that such beachhead has been established by AFU. As of November 13, several milbroggers on both sides claimed that Ukraine managed to establish three bridgeheads in Krynky, Poima, and Antonivka and connect them. Russians are currently reported to run an attempt to destroy the Krynky bridgehead. No official confirmation or denial has been issued by either side. UPD: 1. "Base" has been changed to "beachhead". A beachhead(also a bridgehead) is a secure and fortified area that has been captured by military forces during an amphibious assault. It serves as a landing point for troops and equipment, providing a secure foothold from which further military operations can be conducted. A method to resolve the market has been added.
2023-11-06T16:53:23
2023-12-03T09:31:46
2023-12-03T09:45:15
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IaopA391DRuytt2NTAy8
Will Team USA have more than 40 gold medals in 2024 Olympics
Resolve to Yes if Team USA has 41 or more gold medals in 2024 Olympics Resolve to No if Team USA has 40 or fewer Average gold medals for USA in the past six summer Olympics = 40.3 2020: 39 2016: 46 2012: 48 2008: 36 2004: 36 2000: 37
2023-11-06T16:12:31
2024-08-11T06:59:00
2024-08-25T11:05:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-V2TYTk43TpFVyIJJFh4H
Will OpenAI make GPT3.5 or 4 model weights open before 2025?
OpenAI has been criticized for not being as open as the name indicated. Recently, they've released the weights of some non-LLM models on their dev day. https://manifold.markets/firstuserhere/openai-devday-predictions?r=eWs Do you think they release their LLM weights? GPT3.5 or superior models only count. Modified models (such as distrilled models) are also counted if that is derived from them. This resolves to YES when a public announcement of open access is made and some people outside OpenAI have known to access to the model.
2023-11-06T16:12:16
2024-12-31T06:59:00
2025-01-19T20:44:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-yMdfLkcdmzE164miyfng
Will Crystal Palace beat Everton during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League
⚽ Crystal Palace vs Everton 📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Crystal Palace has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Everton has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2023-11-06T16:03:02
2023-11-11T10:00:00
2023-11-11T10:06:48
no
MANIFOLD
mani-mWaSHWlw7QiBGJFgDyIK
Will Manchester United beat Luton during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League
⚽ Manchester United vs Luton 📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Manchester United has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Luton has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2023-11-06T16:02:49
2023-11-11T09:48:58
2023-11-11T09:48:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-C7tveZBYdhJQXiL7xnnp
Will Arsenal beat Burnley during regular time on Sat, Nov 11, 2023? - Premier League
⚽ Arsenal vs Burnley 📅 Date: Saturday, November 11, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 15:00 🏆 Competition: Premier League 🔑 Market Resolution: This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Arsenal has more goals This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time: - Both teams have an equal number of goals - Burnley has more goals (Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution) 🕐 Market Closing Time: This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met. 🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
2023-11-06T16:02:36
2023-11-11T10:00:00
2023-11-11T10:05:23
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-JV2vmEN1DTte4wVnpbBs
Will the IDF gain control of Al-Shifa hospital by the end of November?
Resolves YES if the IDF has control of the Al-Shifa hospital complex for a period of at least 24 hours by the end of November.
2023-11-06T14:15:15
2023-11-16T08:47:46
2023-11-16T08:47:46
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xkxDcQAkaq74QZ9mo2pn
Will Nikki Haley be the next President of the United States?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-06T13:42:51
2024-11-06T20:59:00
2024-11-07T04:39:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M1glCmjTDf7H0gKEXt7T
Will Sweden join NATO before June 30th, 2024?
Same market as this one, but with an end date of mid-2024 vs. the beginning of 2024. Resolution criteria will be the same as this Metaculus questions: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10084/sweden-to-join-nato-before-2024/ but with a close date of 2024-06-30 11:59 pm
2023-11-06T13:37:14
2024-03-07T09:19:49
2024-03-07T09:19:49
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-3Twt7MQTexE8qchipKxk
Will Joe Biden fall again during his first term as President?
Same criteria as this market: https://manifold.markets/ImplyGate/will-joe-biden-be-seen-falling-down?r=UGVhbnV0Q29va2llRmFudGFDaGVlc3lQYQ Will resolve YES if a real video of Joe Biden falling during his first term as President (Ending on January 20th 2025) is shared on the internet. The fall must be unintentional, and have at least one of his knees OR at least one of his hands touch the ground. Small trips, slips, and stumbles don't count, for example: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0469r7dWpZI (Biden looses footing, but does not fall) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3z3Xhqekb4M (Biden trips, but does not fall. His knees or hands never touch the ground) Examples that count: - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_ctthyYjglw (Biden falling at the Air Force Academy commencement) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-EahgmNmMsM (Biden falling during a bike ride in Delaware) - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U5Mwc12LtRY (Biden falling on Air Force One stairs) Will resolve NO if Biden's term ends prematurely.
2023-11-06T12:45:33
2025-01-21T20:59:00
2025-01-21T21:01:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4ifOkjQugRS2VPjByYQM
⚽️ Will France 🇫🇷 beat Greece 🇬🇷 in game 10 of the Euro Qualifiers 🇪🇺?
France plays Greece (in Greece) on their last game of Euro Qualifiers 2024 on November 21, will they win?
2023-11-06T11:51:38
2023-11-21T13:42:17
2023-11-21T13:42:17
no
MANIFOLD
mani-10q98ofmY1CcnMx0E2dL
[Metaculus] Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly?
Will western sources conclude, before 2025, that Israel has used white phosphorus improperly? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19810/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if, before January 1, 2025, any three of the following government or media sources conclude that Israel has used white phosphorus in an illegal or improper manner any time after October 7, 2023: The United Kingdom The United States France Germany Japan South Korea Israel The United Nations The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) Reports published by one of the following sources and based on independent investigations conducted by the same source or commissioned by the same source each also count as one qualifying report BBC The Guardian AP Reuters The use of white phosphorus must be explicitly stated by these sources, including an assertion that the use was improper or illegal, and the reported use must occur within the stated timeframe. Negative statements do not in themselves resolve this question as No. The question will resolve as No if no such use is reported by the deadline. Any use reported after the deadline will not count towards the resolution of this question. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-06T11:48:34
2025-01-02T06:00:00
2025-01-03T03:38:39
no
MANIFOLD
mani-GKKRKRHFnR9TVD75UQVW
Will Israel continue to have Gaza city encircled by the end of 2023?
I rarely revamp a description, but I needed to on this one. This question resolves YES if there is still an ongoing encirclement/siege by the end of 2023. This question resolves NO if the encirclement ends (Example: IDF captures Gaza City, IDF retreats and ends the encirclement, Hamas breaks the encirclement by counter efforts, etc.) Encirclement: Encirclement operations are operations where one force loses its freedom of maneuver because an opposing force is able to isolate it by controlling all ground lines of communication and reinforcement. Gaza City: Gaza City is the totality of Gaza outskirts, and downtown areas. From Tel al-Hawa in the south, to Biet Lahia in the north. See my comment for more context on the resolution criteria. Old Description: If Israel ends the encirclement (due to winning or being pushed back to retreat) this question resolves as NO*** (Fixed Typo). Sorry if this is a duplicate question, I couldnt find it. If it is, let me know and I will NA this question.
2023-11-06T11:37:49
2024-01-02T01:42:51
2024-01-02T01:43:00
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-5EvaDSUtKyzvVH15JPhj
Will Bernie Sanders file for reelection to the Senate before 2024?
An FEC filing for Senator Bernie Sanders's reelection in 2024 prior to 1/1/24 12:00am will cause this to resolve YES. A retirement announcement from the Senator's office, or failing to file by the end of 2023, will cause this to resolve NO.
2023-11-06T10:46:57
2023-12-31T20:57:05
2023-12-31T20:57:05
no
MANIFOLD
mani-uAWd0ItOiyD5K7ai5f7P
Will Marvin Harrison Jr. be a top 3 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft?
Resolves YES if Harrison Jr. is selected at pick 1, 2 or 3. Resolves NO if he is not (even if he is not drafted or not in the draft class).
2023-11-06T09:25:45
2024-04-28T18:59:02
2024-04-28T18:59:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-kvt8zRjl2ov3iCZ7xIy5
Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of 2024? [description]
Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise. Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet). Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment). Examples of SF freeways for this question: I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc. SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport Examples of SF non-freeways for this question: 19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway, Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways. John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated Update 2024-02-16: For "adjacent" I will include all the counties which border SF: Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo Other end dates: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on)
2023-11-06T09:11:17
2024-12-31T23:59:00
2025-01-01T00:04:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-4FUbB4X3MdOovcg5udJB
Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q3 (September) 2024? [description]
Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise. Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet). Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment). Examples of SF freeways for this question: I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc. SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport Examples of SF non-freeways for this question: 19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway, Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways. John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated Update 2024-02-16: For "adjacent" I will include all the counties which border SF: Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo Other end dates: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on)
2023-11-06T09:11:02
2024-09-30T23:59:00
2024-10-01T12:02:38
no
MANIFOLD
mani-pD3XNocrvuIQnf8XH5PH
Will Waymo give public driverless rides on any SF freeways by the end of Q1 (March) 2024? [description]
Resolves YES if Waymo intentionally routes a public driverless ride-hail ride onto at least 1 kilometer of any freeway in or directly adjacent* to San Francisco before the market close time. Resolves NO otherwise. Public meaning the ride must be given to a non-employee (of Waymo/Alphabet). Freeway meaning a segment of highway (road) that is barrier-divided (k-rail, guardrail, or cable, between opposing traffic), has a speed limit of at least 45 mph, and is limited-access (no attached bikeway, sidewalk, or crosswalks; and no intersections or driveways--excepting toll plazas; for a continuous segment). Examples of SF freeways for this question: I-80, I-280, the Central Freeway, US-101 south of the Central Freeway, US-101/CA-1 through the Presidio and across the GGB, CA-1 through Pacifica, etc. SFO "collector-distributor" lanes along US-101 (i.e. from San Bruno Ave and Millbrae Ave) to/from the airport Examples of SF non-freeways for this question: 19th Ave (CA-1), Sloat Blvd/Skyline Blvd (CA-35), Great Highway, Alemany Blvd and San Jose Ave: Some segments are 45 mph, but have attached bikeways. John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> Alemany Blvd: Too short John Daly Blvd -> Junipero Serra Blvd -> 19th Ave: Long enough but has attached sidewalks/crosswalks Local SFO airport access roads - 35 mph speed limit, too short, and not separated Update 2024-02-16: For "adjacent" I will include all the counties which border SF: Marin, Contra Costa, Alameda, and San Mateo Other end dates: (https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-daa8c90d07e9)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-9231f0d06ad8)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-0689e8261c03)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on-cbd374e5878c)(https://manifold.markets/embed/MingweiSamuel/will-waymo-give-driverless-rides-on)
2023-11-06T09:10:16
2024-03-31T23:59:00
2024-04-01T11:15:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-U3TdfA0GjcsqfR2lCbgf
Will Sergio Perez finish on the podium at the Las Vegas GP 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-06T07:00:20
2023-11-18T23:37:33
2023-11-18T23:37:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-nxwDIvUgvjSYk0MMjNKE
Will Max Verstappen win the Las Vegas GP 2023?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-06T06:56:38
2023-11-18T23:36:33
2023-11-18T23:36:37
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-xVaPbBUSDmziuDO3mFyw
Will Israeli soldiers perform ground invasion in south Gaza before 2024?
For now it's seems that IDF ground operation is focused in north Gaza. All citizens are requested to move to the south. If a significant military force (more then 200 soldiers) will enter south Gaza, this question will be resolved as Yes. South Gaza is anything south of Deir al-Balah
2023-11-06T06:40:02
2023-12-05T01:24:16
2023-12-05T01:24:16
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-Df3rnSeoxKgNjSzBQ0sF
Will "Napoleon" gross >$25M on its opening (3-day) weekend?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $25,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market. Note: The Box Office Mojo "Domestic Opening" is typically the 3-day total. "Napoleon" releases during Thanksgiving week, so some opening numbers will cite the 5-day instead. Regardless, I will use whatever is listed by Box Office Mojo. (Example: For Devotion (2022), released around the same time last year, the opening gross listed is $5.9M). The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Ofifce Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source. I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one). If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask. [link preview]
2023-11-06T06:16:17
2023-11-27T16:28:06
2023-11-27T16:28:06
no
MANIFOLD
mani-6j28fBH5IuPOlX4wphZS
First Starship–Superheavy commercial payload in 2024?
Resolves YES if, in 2024, SpaceX's Starship–Superheavy vehicle successfully transports a commercial payload to orbit or beyond. The payload must be for a non-governmental, paying customer. This excludes SpaceX's Starlink satellites or any other payloads owned by SpaceX. Joint private-government payloads are excluded unless the government's contribution or involvement is strictly financial and constitutes less than 50% of the total project funding. For a launch carrying multiple payloads, the market will resolve YES if at least one meets these criteria. "In 2024" means deployment of payload confirmed before the end of 2024, local time at the launch site.
2023-11-06T01:14:58
2025-01-01T04:59:00
2025-01-01T12:18:54
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Ps41FOBGjkWl1wFCWyIe
Will Wesley So qualify for the 2024 FIDE Candidates Tournament?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_Tournament_2024?useskin=vector The 2024 Candidates Tournament will be an eight-player chess tournament, held to determine the challenger for the 2024 World Chess Championship match. The highest rated player in the January 2024 rating list who has not yet qualified for the Candidates or World Championship, and has participated in four FIDE Circuit classical events, will qualify to the Candidates. The current leader among eligible players is GM Wesley So. However, GM Alireza Firouzja is expected to become eligible for qualification, and is rated higher than So. Wesley also has an outside shot of qualifying via the FIDE circuit - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_FIDE_Circuit This market resolves YES if Wesley So qualifies for the FIDE Candidates tournament directly i.e without some other qualifier indicating that they'll drop out opening up a spot for Wesley It resolves NO if he does not qualify via either the FIDE rating path or the FIDE Grand Prix circuit tournaments. If the FIDE Candidates Tournament is canceled, postponed indefinitely, or significantly altered due to force majeure or other extraordinary circumstances, the market may be declared void. Resolution Date: The market will be resolved on January 1st 2024 after FIDE publishes its monthly rating list
2023-11-06T00:31:15
2023-12-31T09:24:23
2023-12-31T09:24:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-5DPbDMA0tqhKaeK0ymm1
Will the New York Giants draft a Quarterback on their first draft pick?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-05T20:01:03
2024-04-25T17:55:20
2024-04-25T17:55:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Pd2Sdbmy6USpMzAkdO6f
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Miami beat #4 Florida State?
2023-11-11 at 3:30 PM ET in Tallahassee, FL. Line: Florida State -15.
2023-11-05T17:56:24
2023-11-11T16:15:14
2023-11-11T16:15:14
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RddmaTiNRaEfUuh3SUMZ
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #14 Tennessee beat #16 Missouri?
2023-11-11 at 3:30 PM ET in Columbia, MO. Line: Missouri +1.
2023-11-05T17:56:14
2023-11-11T15:53:24
2023-11-11T15:53:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-KqeBTZZua1cslxMDTVih
Will a foreign nation airdrop aid to the Palestinians in Gaza?
Conditions for a "Yes" resolution: If a foreign nation publicly announces an airdrop mission to deliver aid to Gaza. If credible news sources report on an ongoing or completed airdrop mission by a foreign nation in support of Gaza. If this event occurs from now onwards. The Jordan airdrop is not eligible as it occurred prior to the establishment of the market.
2023-11-05T16:40:31
2023-11-30T12:12:39
2023-11-30T12:12:39
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-yaGZmMKNRdFToa7TrPeR
NFL🏈-Week 10 Will the Houston Texans win their NFL Game against the Cincinnati Bengals on 11/12
Resolved based on Game Day Results on 11/12 I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game.
2023-11-05T13:32:34
2023-11-12T12:30:00
2023-11-12T16:05:50
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ZGGnCkR4Wxl0Jc06zMZR
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will #2 Michigan beat #9 Penn State?
2023-11-11 at 12 PM ET in University Park, PA. Line: Penn State +6.5.
2023-11-05T12:40:38
2023-11-11T12:46:42
2023-11-11T12:46:42
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-A3O53L39kaaUKiVSC6Vj
Will Taylor Swift be at the Kansas City Chiefs game on Monday November 20 in Kansas City against the Eagles?
To prevent sniping the question will close on November 19.
2023-11-05T11:44:03
2023-11-19T20:59:00
2023-11-20T19:11:26
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8ef9evI0Ycsq3hxbIajl
NFL 🏈 - Week 10 -- Will the San Francisco Forty-Niners win their NFL game against the Jacksonville Jaguars on 11/12
Resolved Based on Game Results on 11/12. Trading will close mid-game around noon PST. I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game.
2023-11-05T10:58:05
2023-11-12T12:39:00
2023-11-12T15:10:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-n2gmnmoOrr8zMgwHoM9L
Will grok AI be available for general use in November 2023?
Will an average person living in the US be able to access grok AI by x.ai in November of 2023? [link preview]
2023-11-05T10:15:34
2023-11-30T22:16:18
2023-11-30T22:16:18
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8F83YHc9Gfy82C4l5if6
Will the Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election?
British Columbia's next general election is set for 19 October 2024, though it may be called earlier. Since 1991, the BC Liberals and BC NDP have been the to two largest political parties. In 2023, the Liberals changed their party name to BC United, and one of their elected members crossed the floor to become leader of the BC Conservatives. Recently, the Conservatives have polled ahead of BC United. Will the BC Conservatives win more votes than BC United in British Columbia's next election (19 Oct 2024 or earlier)? Related: [markets]
2023-11-05T09:29:29
2024-10-19T20:26:11
2024-10-19T20:26:11
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-FE8E1eVeHw4KoqmnvQxP
Will FTX dump all its accumulated crypto on CEXes in Nov 2023
FTX is moving its crypto to centralized exchanges. They haven't sold them yet. But it is a ticking time bomb which might potentially wipe of all the marketcap gains that happened in the past month. Will they pull the trigger this month?
2023-11-05T06:46:17
2023-11-30T07:59:00
2023-11-30T12:20:49
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XKAVzzLDP8rZ5AzbN6Bh
Will the IDF engage in a temporary ceasefire in Gaza before 12/15/23?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-05T04:32:07
2023-11-21T17:37:35
2023-11-21T17:37:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-IwTVGP01UOnxVZjcT1fB
Will Bayern Munich win The Champions league 23/24
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-05T04:05:04
2024-05-08T14:39:04
2024-05-08T14:39:04
no
MANIFOLD
mani-XIk4QeXZcKMq1wdBIpmk
Will RFK Jr be the most voted candidate in at least one state in the 2024 presidential election?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T18:05:08
2024-11-06T17:14:42
2024-11-06T17:14:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-iwNWD0BuPrluKcaCGElw
Elections - Brandon Presley (Democrat) will win the Governors seat in Mississippi. NOV 7th election.
Resolved based on the victor of the Mississippi gubernatorial elections being held on Nov7th. Official victor only please and not that announced by Election deniers. I will not need any official concession and will use the official AP, NYT, WSJ, ABC,NBC, CBS, Fox declarations as proof.
2023-11-04T17:48:54
2023-11-07T21:18:16
2023-11-07T21:18:16
no
MANIFOLD
mani-CUiaHVuhORRQPDMqKpaH
Will a UFC event take place in the MSG Sphere in Las Vegas in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T16:30:42
2024-09-14T15:03:00
2024-09-15T15:43:35
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-7ZSWdTQ8FmCsRx2uAvma
Will the New England Patriots beat the Washington Commanders in their Week 9 matchup in the 2023 NFL Season?
Yes - Patriots win No - Commanders win or tie N/A - Game gets canceled
2023-11-04T15:03:45
2023-11-05T13:09:41
2023-11-05T13:09:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-gTERy6RILi57YKqRHKeL
Will the MHA (My Hero Academia) manga end in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T14:29:52
2024-07-23T05:38:32
2024-07-23T05:38:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-fhk5JPrxKmFPlD19cTqv
⚽ Will Harry Kane break Lewandowski's record (41 Bundesliga goals) this season?
This will resolve YES, if Harry Kane scores more than 41 goals in Bundesliga this season. --- Record 41 – The Bundesliga’s fabled number for most goals in a season was once 40 after Gerd Müller set a seemingly impossible bar in 1971/72. That was until Lewandowski came along in 2020/21 and scored 41 times in only 29 appearances.
2023-11-04T13:28:42
2024-05-19T08:07:19
2024-05-19T08:07:19
no
MANIFOLD
mani-Czb0cqi7OYgkxlQOSAbj
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Arizona State defeat UCLA?
Kickoff: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - 6:00 PM PST Rose Bowl - Pasadena, California Week 11 Pac-12 games: @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-col @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-state-defe-53821e911b41(this market) @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-or @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-oregon @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-washin @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d-44bb33edecad
2023-11-04T13:06:59
2023-11-11T21:51:18
2023-11-11T21:51:18
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-k8Udh5A4Oyu1c8YjBQ6U
Will AAPL close above $200 per share at the end of 2024?
Resolves YES if the official close price of Apple shares on Dec. 31, 2024 is $200 or above. Resolves NO if below. Splits will be accounted for if necessary. https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/forecast/#
2023-11-04T12:02:43
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T15:49:05
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-WmSyOTbR3YwwQ9l3loZ5
Will North Gaza be de facto controled by Israel at the end of 2023?
This is a duplicate of another question but only considering Northern Gaza. Gaza is currently, in a "de facto" sense, governed by Hamas. The organization's foreign policy has led to blockades by all neighboring countries. Given this situation as my baseline perspective, I intend to evaluate the market based on Israel meeting most of the criteria in the list below by the end of the year, or other indications that would lead a reasonable person to infer that Israel as complete control over the territory. I will employ my own judgment, supplemented by input from other stakeholders, in cases where there is ambiguity. This list was added here to elucidate some people who were arguing that israel already had control of Gaza at the begining of the conflict. It as generated lots of controversy and apprehension in the betters. It serves as a guide and not as a checkbox I will be strictly following at resolution time. if there is still something I should further clarify please add some more comments. I am trying to go by some sort of common sense definition of political (not only military) control, including being able to defend and provide for the population in an organized and CONTROLLED faction. "De Facto" Control Over a Territory implies: 1) Governance and Legal Systems: The ability to make and enforce laws [while allowing citizen participation in decision-making processes (this is optional)]. 2) Security and Border Management: Ensuring internal safety and defending against external threats, while regulating who comes in and out of the territory. 3) Public Services and Utilities: Providing essential services like healthcare, education, and utilities such as water and electricity. 4) Economic Oversight: Control over financial systems, including tax collection and monetary policy. 5) International and Environmental Relations: Maintaining international relationships, disaster preparedness, and resource management. Possibilities that have generated confusion and their resolution: 1) Distopic military dictatorship style control, resolves YES. In this case criteria only the citizen participation section of criteria 1 would not be enforced. 2) Terror attacks by Hamaz are happening in a otherwhise controlled territory, resolves YES In this case the internal safety section of criteria 2 would be lacking but everything else would still lead me to resolve it as YES. 3) Hamaz having a section of Gazan territory still in its control, resolves NO. 4) Population self governing (with or without IDF present), resolves NO. 5) Population in anarchy (with or without IDF present), resolves NO. Also I should refer that at the end I will look for information on wikipedia, major news outlets and other similar reputable sources to make my decision. I will also take into consideration market discussions in case of possible ambiguities.
2023-11-04T11:26:56
2024-01-01T14:59:00
2024-01-07T14:27:02
no
MANIFOLD
mani-WzyYZfZLxfGHZuAEVxvm
Will "Napoleon" gross >$22M on its opening (3-day) weekend?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if "Napoleon" (2023) grosses more than $22,000,000 during its 3-day domestic opening weekend. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". The "Domestic Opening" number listed on Box Office Mojo https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13287846/?ref_=bo_se_r_1 will be used to resolve this market. Note: The Box Office Mojo "Domestic Opening" is typically the 3-day total. "Napoleon" releases during Thanksgiving week, so some opening numbers will cite the 5-day instead. Regardless, I will use whatever is listed by Box Office Mojo. (Example: For Devotion (2022), released around the same time last year, the opening gross listed is $5.9M). The market will resolve once the opening weekend values are finalized (i.e. not studio estimates), which may be before the listed date. If Box Ofifce Mojo does not cite a number by December 1st, I will use an alternative source. I may choose to trade in my own markets if they have clear, objective resolution criteria (like this one). If any aspect of this question is unclear, please ask. [link preview]
2023-11-04T11:18:36
2023-11-28T20:34:42
2023-11-28T20:34:42
no
MANIFOLD
mani-RXiCGFAPqwonSYz73VFr
Will Wonka get above 83% Certified Fresh rating on RT?
Will the Wonka movie staring Timothee Chalamet get above 83% Certified Fresh (an 83%=NO)? Cerified Fresh: at least 75% rating and must have a minimum of 80 reviews, including 5 top citics. https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/wonka Release Date: Dec 15, 2023 Question Resolves: Dec 18, 2023 at 11:59PM MST
2023-11-04T11:16:12
2023-12-18T22:59:00
2023-12-18T23:00:53
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6Cn9qIG9xRkMvycwm19X
Will Apple buy Disney in 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T11:06:36
2024-12-30T14:59:00
2024-12-30T17:54:20
no
MANIFOLD
mani-rXelzhcypSCmQw9YtURS
🏈 2023 NCAAF: Will Arizona defeat Colorado?
Kickoff: Saturday, November 11, 2023 - Time TBD MST Folsom Field - Boulder, Colorado Week 11 Pac-12 games: @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-defeat-col (this market) @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-arizona-state-defe-53821e911b41 @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-stanford-defeat-or @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-usc-defeat-oregon @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-utah-defeat-washin @/jks/-2023-ncaaf-will-washington-state-d-44bb33edecad
2023-11-04T09:41:01
2023-11-11T14:30:00
2023-11-11T15:01:43
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-ixkkh0TayEpVXg1a9Exa
[Metaculus] Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024?
Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker until 2024? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19593/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if Mike Johnson remains the Speaker of the US House of Representatives continuously until the end of 2023. This question will resolve as No if Mike Johnson ceases to be Speaker of the House for any reason (including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election loss, loss of majority party status, vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity) in 2023. Resolution will be determined according to reporting from credible sources. Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-04T08:41:15
2024-01-02T04:00:00
2024-01-02T07:29:06
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-RJ1DH1FnlkXpFi8DgZfE
Will SBF be found guilty of any future felonies before 2025?
After the first trial.
2023-11-04T04:26:49
2025-03-10T14:06:29
2025-03-10T14:06:29
no
MANIFOLD
mani-xYUzOyKQNlIuM8tiWJAc
Will there be a conflict between 3 or more nation states in the middle east before 2025? [Note nation states]
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any conflict involving three or more recognized nation states in the Middle East occurs before the end of the day on December 31, 2024, Eastern Time. For the purpose of this market, a "conflict" is defined as an active disagreement or clash, specifically involving military actions or explicit diplomatic disputes that are publicly acknowledged and reported by major global news outlets, such as BBC, Al Jazeera, CNN, or Reuters. A "nation state" refers to a sovereign state whose citizens or subjects are relatively homogeneous in factors such as language or common descent. The Middle East refers to the transcontinental region in Afro-Eurasia which generally includes Western Asia (except for Transcaucasia), all of Egypt (mostly in North Africa), Iran (in South Asia), and Turkey (partly in Southeast Europe). The conflict must be independently confirmed and reported by at least two of the aforementioned news outlets for the market to resolve to "Yes". If two or fewer nation states are involved in a conflict, or if no such conflict occurs before the expiry date, the market will resolve to "No".
2023-11-04T03:57:58
2024-11-09T15:59:00
2024-12-30T07:32:33
no
MANIFOLD
mani-UUGJkcogCEGGYqXZVsVM
Will Mike Johnson defend conversion therapy on the record as speaker?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T00:43:25
2025-01-06T20:59:00
2025-02-03T22:16:23
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h1xf8J6Gsd3toQJ5joVH
Will a NATO member state deploy troops to Gaza as peacekeepers by end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-04T00:26:22
2024-12-31T20:59:00
2025-01-02T02:01:27
no
MANIFOLD
mani-zUvLPxbpor31SF4MiPKt
Will Starship orbital flight attempts occur in both November and December 2023?
Resolution criteria for what counts as an attempt adapted from this market. For the purposes of this market the test doesn't have to be successful or even conclusive - a scrub is fine as long as it's clear that SpaceX was trying to do an orbital flight test. I'll resolve YES if an official SpaceX social media channel puts up a livestream entitled "Starship Flight Test" or similar, which shows a live feed of a Starship–Super Heavy full stack vehicle and a countdown, for a flight trajectory that is intended to be orbital or near-orbital, in both November and December 2023. NO if there is clearly no such livestreams by end of December, and N/A if it is ambiguous whether this has happened. The relevant timezone is the local time at the launch site.
2023-11-03T17:18:46
2023-12-31T21:59:00
2023-12-31T22:03:13
no
MANIFOLD
mani-ZKz58PXJXqd3vVDIIlx7
Will the FED drop interest rates at least once before the end of 2024?
The FOMC meets eight times a year to adjust the federal funds rate. The last 2024 decision date is scheduled for December 18, 2024.
2023-11-03T15:13:56
2024-09-19T03:58:58
2024-09-19T03:58:58
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-F1NgQZLOg5ZOW1wiDBXP
Will Javier Milei have a haircut until the end of this year?
EDIT FOR CLARIFICATION: Resolves YES if there are noteworthy changes to Javier Mileis hairstyle from when the question was created until the end of the year. Inauguration ceremony will take place on December 10 and will be a good test. Pictures and news will be used as a markers. Resolves NO if he keeps his exact hairstyle as when the question was created, even if he trims it.
2023-11-03T13:46:01
2023-12-31T18:59:00
2024-01-01T13:48:11
no
MANIFOLD
mani-w5q1anB7fV8Ax6KKZGyg
Will geometry dash 2.2 release in November 2023?
Swedish time zone. Any platform counts (iOS, Android, Steam) I will bet on this market. Since I'm less active on manifold nowadays, any mod can resolve for me if I don't resolve promptly.
2023-11-03T12:12:50
2023-12-01T05:02:44
2023-12-01T05:02:44
no
MANIFOLD
mani-YZ270JPg5Xl00ivcplWL
NFL 🏈 -Week10 - Will the Atlanta Falcons win their NFL Game against the Arizona Cardinals on 11/12?
Resolved Based on Game Day Score on 11/12. Trading will close a few hours after the game start I normally close the trading mid-game not allowing late bets in the 2nd half of the game. Let me know your thoughts if I should let the trading stay open all through the game.
2023-11-03T11:39:57
2023-11-12T16:08:01
2023-11-12T16:08:01
no
MANIFOLD
mani-HPBm0gZ7QMtL9KOhs8uh
[Metaculus] Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025?
Will Costco raise the price of its hot dog and soda combo before 2025? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/11528/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 1, 2025, any Costco location in the continental United States (the contiguous 48 states + D.C.) increases the price of the 1/4 lb hot dog and 20 oz soda combo meal to greater than $1.50, or decreases either the weight of the hot dog or the volume of soda sold while maintaining the price of the combo at $1.50. This question will resolve only if the price increase / quantity decrease actually takes effect (an announcement of intent to change the deal does not qualify). If the combo meal is discontinued entirely before 2025, without any price increase or weight/volume decrease, this question will resolve as Ambiguous Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-03T10:27:02
2025-01-01T16:01:00
2025-01-02T10:26:43
no
MANIFOLD
mani-AxHafmAIRqXLzbiX6lHy
Will The Marvels gross >$65M on opening weekend?
This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $65,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. [link preview]
2023-11-03T10:23:48
2023-11-12T20:59:00
2023-11-14T08:56:30
no
MANIFOLD
mani-fjV5tNyuK5GEpbziTWXk
Will The Marvels gross >$60M on opening weekend?
This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $60,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. [link preview]
2023-11-03T10:23:32
2023-11-12T20:59:00
2023-11-14T09:48:24
no
MANIFOLD
mani-90NuRTIUP3J2mWOfBPRu
Will The Marvels gross >$55M on opening weekend?
This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $55,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. [link preview]
2023-11-03T10:23:13
2023-11-12T20:59:00
2023-11-14T09:48:28
no
MANIFOLD
mani-M7L5ZsdRxAnK7HI9ujAU
Will The Marvels gross >$50M on opening weekend?
This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $50,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen. [link preview]
2023-11-03T10:22:51
2023-11-12T20:59:00
2023-11-14T09:48:15
no
MANIFOLD
mani-h2969OB50dvpY2wFJ0JC
Will The Marvels gross >$45M on opening weekend?
This is a market on how much 'The Marvels' (2023) will gross domestically on its opening weekend. The “Domestic Weekend” tab on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl247366145/ will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (November 10 - 12) are final (i.e. not studio estimates). This market will resolve to "Yes" if 'The Marvels' (2023) grosses more than $45,000,000 on its 3-day opening weekend. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Please note, this market will resolve according to the Box Office Mojo number under Domestic Weekend for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc. If there is no final data available by November 20, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
2023-11-03T10:22:30
2023-11-12T20:59:00
2023-11-14T09:48:32
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-zCViv6JFc3VAtMqqgDB0
[Metaculus] Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect?
Will the Time person of the year in 2024 be the US president-elect? Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus. (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/6049/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria This resolves positively if the Time person of the year in 2024 is the president-elect or both the president- and vice-president-elect, as determined by projected electoral votes as called by the Associated Press Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus. Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
2023-11-03T10:21:54
2024-12-12T09:24:38
2024-12-12T09:24:38
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-phcBCtkoCeLQ6RBrbejG
Will Israel force more than 5,000 Palestinians with Israeli work permits back into Gaza during the invasion?
At least 3500 Gazans were held in Israeli prison following 10/7 despite no connection to the attack and then today were taken to the border of Gaza and forced to REENTER!!!! Will this continue until 5000+ Gazan refugees are forced to reenter the refugee camp by the end of 2023?
2023-11-03T08:50:37
2023-12-31T19:54:59
2023-12-31T19:54:59
no
MANIFOLD
mani-z9oI4kLIBG9QbEryZoVd
Will the Los Angeles Chargers beat the New York Jets on Monday night?
Jets are at home. Chargers favored by 3.5 points
2023-11-03T07:32:57
2023-11-06T20:59:00
2023-11-07T04:04:54
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-vGfPUstoEBOJt0u2PaOZ
Will Kalshi be running any US election market by the end of 2024? (keyword: politics)
Kalshi currently do not offer any markets on election due to regulation. Will that have changed by the end of 2024? https://kalshi.com/blog/article/on-regulated-election-markets
2023-11-03T06:57:29
2024-09-12T12:27:31
2024-09-12T12:27:31
yes
MANIFOLD
mani-6uS1kYf19UZNvYWjw7HR
Will TikTok be banned in the US by the end of 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-03T06:06:07
2025-01-01T20:06:31
2025-01-01T20:06:31
no
MANIFOLD
mani-8mHLkz3j3coNDfyVljdm
Will the Israeli Hamas war expand to include Hezbollah before March 30, 2024?
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
2023-11-03T05:26:55
2024-03-29T20:59:00
2024-03-30T04:30:15
no
MANIFOLD