id
stringlengths 8
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| question
stringlengths 13
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| description
stringlengths 0
7.87k
| open_date
stringlengths 19
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| close_date
stringlengths 19
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| resolve_date
stringlengths 19
20
| resolution
stringclasses 2
values | source
stringclasses 2
values |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
mani-5Pzz3A8CdOBrj5xwoljN
|
Will Sam Bankman Fried be sentenced to over 20 years in prison?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-03T05:24:07
|
2024-03-29T00:36:32
|
2024-03-29T00:36:32
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hhSx7oz629bYVQfKa193
|
Will Rishi Sunak face a Conservative Vote of No Confidence before the next general election?
|
This market resolves YES if 15% of Conservative MPs submit letters of no confidence to the 1922 committee before polling day for the next UK General Election following 2019 and a Vote of No Confidence is triggered.
This market will not resolve YES if a parliamentary vote of no confidence is submitted by an opposition party.
Resolves NO on polling day of the next GE if not resolved before.
|
2023-11-03T01:04:39
|
2024-07-03T15:59:00
|
2024-07-04T21:27:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-msDARPmqwbwv1C0Px4S3
|
Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a sentence of 99+ years?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-02T22:54:30
|
2024-03-28T11:44:17
|
2024-03-28T11:44:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-8swcFJ0sdovA2Q4fAMAh
|
Will Taylor Swift be in attendance at Super Bowl LVIII?
|
[image]
|
2023-11-02T21:10:48
|
2024-02-11T15:28:06
|
2024-02-11T15:28:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-3RafNk2tlJ82NjRz9Ttn
|
Will Ron Desantis drop out of the Presidential race before Florida holds its primaries (March 19th)?
|
Sure, he might want to stick around and try to win them, but Florida comes relatively late in the primaries slate. The debates will be pretty much done. Over half of the states will vote by the time Florida goes. Super Tuesday will have happened. Will he drop out of the GOP presidential primaries by then?
|
2023-11-02T21:06:15
|
2024-01-21T12:20:34
|
2024-01-21T12:20:34
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-H3UYKP6eILEq6Tf42LCB
|
Will Jim Harbaugh coach an NFL team before the end of the 2025 season?
|
Will he be brought on the be head coach of an NFL team this season (2023) or during the next two seasons (2024 / 2025)?
|
2023-11-02T20:42:06
|
2024-01-24T17:32:39
|
2024-01-24T17:32:39
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HFjWYv6XII1Zyg8q68Dl
|
Will Denver, CO have a White Christmas in 2023?
|
Resolves yes if Denver receives an inch or more of snow on Christmas Day.
|
2023-11-02T18:41:39
|
2023-12-25T20:59:00
|
2023-12-26T05:15:17
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-TFhhYZ030He6S4VjQhLt
|
Yahya Sinwar killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?
|
Yahya Sinwar is the leader of Hamas.
This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Yahya Sinwar by Israeli military forces before the end of 2024, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at the end of 2024.
If Sinwar's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.
In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Sinwar at the end of 2024, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Sinwar says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.
As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.
Corner cases: If Sinwar kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.
|
2023-11-02T14:44:29
|
2024-10-17T13:05:50
|
2024-10-17T13:05:50
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-uDgaIOc8DyaUQ700QlTA
|
Will NYC Mayor Eric Adams face corruption charges before April 1st, 2024?
|
Will NYC Mayor Eric Adams face any corruption charges Before 4/1/24? (any charges weather they are related to the most recent scandal of the FBI raid on his campaign fundraiser or not)
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/02/nyregion/eric-adams-brianna-suggs-fbi-raid.html
|
2023-11-02T14:39:57
|
2024-03-31T22:59:00
|
2024-04-01T01:18:37
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RX0d5G3L0gTJCvA9GN1P
|
Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-02T12:35:14
|
2024-11-02T16:59:00
|
2024-11-02T17:05:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jKC9EWcowAPlS8LE7Ej3
|
Will Ingenuity make 100 or more flights on Mars?
|
[image]
|
2023-11-02T11:34:38
|
2024-01-25T11:57:55
|
2024-01-25T11:57:55
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FUOf3AbLPpsoGxedsBQH
|
Will Bitcoin drop below US$32,000 again before the end of the year?
|
Resolves YES if the price of Bitcoin drops below $32,000 at any moment from the creation of this market to 2024 (Created Nov. 2nd)
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
[link preview]
|
2023-11-02T11:12:03
|
2024-01-01T20:38:46
|
2024-01-01T20:38:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-VDzpg2etiGWalSJTJQuW
|
Will the US attack Iran by Dec 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by December 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
|
2023-11-02T10:20:29
|
2024-12-16T20:59:00
|
2024-12-22T17:30:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FF4szmqaKfYKgp6tSLKt
|
Will the US attack Iran by Aug 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by August 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
|
2023-11-02T10:20:13
|
2024-08-16T21:59:00
|
2024-08-17T13:23:32
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GilorJCWUxPFkvgFZdrG
|
Will the US attack Iran by May 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by May 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
|
2023-11-02T10:19:52
|
2024-05-16T17:07:08
|
2024-05-16T17:07:08
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CfLhP0Lq2jBoldBnB2dZ
|
Will the US attack Iran by Mar 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by March 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
|
2023-11-02T10:19:32
|
2024-03-16T08:09:22
|
2024-03-16T08:09:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-g6kJIG3W5tG39P76LiYE
|
Will the US attack Iran by Jan 15th 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States of America initiates a military attack on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory by January 15, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a "military attack" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is subject to a US missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. federal government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Several US politicians have called for this including Lindsay Graham and Nikki Haley.
|
2023-11-02T10:19:09
|
2024-01-16T13:00:52
|
2024-01-16T13:00:52
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-LojcVLiALk429RawX2TE
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in November 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4193.80 or higher on 2023-11-30 ()?
See also: @/XComhghall/will-the-sp-500-increase-in-q4-2023
@/XComhghall/will-sp-500-increase-overall-in-202S&P 500 close level from January to October 2023
4076.60, 3970.15, 4109.31, 4169.48, 4179.83, 4450.38, 4588.96, 4507.66, 4288.05, 4193.80
https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices
|
2023-11-02T10:02:44
|
2023-12-01T20:59:00
|
2023-12-03T15:16:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HkQHtzgDIJsPvSeEu7yA
|
Will Cruise relaunch driverless taxis in San Francisco by Dec 31 2024?
|
On Oct 24, 2023 the California DMV announced they had suspended Cruise’s driverless taxis in SF, citing safety concerns (see https://x.com/Cruise/status/1716877217995894934?s=20).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cruise relaunches its driverless taxi operations in San Francisco by Dec 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
A “relaunch” requires Cruise to resume driverless operations in San Francisco, and does not include mere tests and demonstrations.
The resolution source will be information from Cruise, in addition to credible media reporting.
|
2023-11-02T09:49:36
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-01-05T21:39:09
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fXIncm93mE7svg5b62Co
|
Will Venezuela oil production be >1 million barrels/day by March 31st 2024?
|
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the average daily oil production in Venezuela exceeds 1 million barrels per day in either Q4 2023 or Q1 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The values considered will be the barrels/day for both Q4 2023 and Q1 2024. If either of these exceed 1 million barrels per day, this market will resolve to "Yes." Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be direct communication data provided by OPEC,
(e.g. https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/publications/338.htm + https://www.opec.org/opec_web/static_files_project/media/downloads/publications/Addendum_October%20MOMR.pdf). Any revisions made to the reported oil production after the initial data release will not impact the outcome of this market.
Another credible source will be chosen if OPEC releases do not become available.
|
2023-11-02T09:43:32
|
2024-04-01T21:59:00
|
2024-04-18T00:53:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XCtSEIsrH4Cyxh4PEo2r
|
Will the New York Giants crush the Las Vegas Raiders? 🏈 Sunday Football
|
YES if Giants win. NO if Raiders win or tie.
|
2023-11-02T08:12:33
|
2023-11-05T17:49:22
|
2023-11-05T17:49:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G23eaSdmQW1xizCA3dwG
|
Will we discover proof of extraterrestrial life by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-02T06:26:17
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-01-03T06:49:57
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jQTJ3mvqxYPSzba4OAQu
|
Will the S&P 500 increase by over 3% in one day in Jan 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-02T05:50:57
|
2024-01-31T13:59:12
|
2024-01-31T13:59:12
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-cTqFOo7PqQml9oQ2WREX
|
Will the S&P 500 increase in November 2023?
|
Will the S&P 500 close at 4201.27 or higher on the last day of November 2023?
S&P 500: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
|
2023-11-02T05:33:28
|
2023-11-30T13:06:54
|
2023-11-30T13:06:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7pJWPjqjksIAFjR16x4y
|
Will Tottenham beat Chelsea during regular time on Mon, Nov 6, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Tottenham vs Chelsea
📅 Date: Monday, November 6, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 20:00
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Tottenham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Chelsea has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-11-02T05:19:08
|
2023-11-06T15:00:00
|
2023-11-06T16:03:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-N3OHXm0eZSqqAmF7AHFT
|
Will the Bank of England raise the UK's interest rate at their 14th December meeting?
|
The Bank of England meets on 14th December to set interest rates.
The market will resolve YES if they raise the rate by any amount from the current level.
The market will resolve NO if they maintain the rate or lower it
Here are some markets on other UK economic stats:
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-5631d8d2019a
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-cpi-inflation-figure-p-76b36fd55025
@/SimonGrayson/will-the-uks-monthly-gdp-figure-pub-6e3f964c24ac
|
2023-11-02T00:48:22
|
2023-12-14T04:26:18
|
2023-12-14T04:26:18
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wdwgYzOBpw7bhJVD2otA
|
Will the Patriots trade Bill Belichick?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-01T20:22:28
|
2024-01-13T08:27:22
|
2024-01-13T08:27:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FrCZpZL3fhzSGdexTWaQ
|
Will OpenAI release a new ChatGPT iteration by the end of the year?
|
Settles to yes if OpenAI releases GPT 4.5/5/6, etc. (Any bump of the major version or minor version, incremental improvements to GPT4 don't count without a renumbering)
Settles to no if OpenAI does not.
|
2023-11-01T17:59:45
|
2023-12-31T20:59:00
|
2024-01-02T07:21:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C4zf9uLVrDoII0OylQ7u
|
Will more than five Head Coaches be fired in the 2023 NFL Season?
|
Resolves Day One of the 2024 Combine (Feb 27). HCs fired before this date count.
|
2023-11-01T17:05:10
|
2024-01-09T18:59:28
|
2024-01-09T18:59:28
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-exnVdGu273rWrer3Dbvq
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 01, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 01, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and May 01, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-11-01T16:37:40
|
2024-05-09T07:00:00
|
2024-05-20T01:39:19
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-on01orl3KrmSHUnFmcFs
|
Will Apple (AAPL) stock close above $200 by the last trading day of 2023? It closed at $173.97 on 11/1/23.
|
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-11-01/apple-health-blood-pressure-glucose-sleep-apnea-team-issues
|
2023-11-01T14:26:40
|
2023-12-28T20:59:00
|
2023-12-30T15:14:15
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QvXOatA7FewGutrwLFg1
|
Will the winner of the popular vote in the 2024 U.S. presidential election also win a majority in the electoral college?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-01T14:06:43
|
2024-11-06T16:50:52
|
2024-11-06T16:50:52
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aulPr98FjLbWqRB7VKrz
|
Will (soon to be former) Dutch PM Mark Rutte be the next secretary general of NATO?
|
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary_General_of_NATO
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte is an early favorite to take over as NATO chief after he signaled interest over the weekend — but he's going to have to overcome his country's patchy record of defense spending as well as his own sex to snag the job.
Governments have so far been officially mum about a Rutte candidacy, but three senior European officials, granted anonymity to speak freely, said he's expected to garner wide support. One of them predicted he'll be backed by the eastern flank countries, for whom the top issue is a candidate's stance on Russia and Ukraine.
More info: https://www.politico.eu/article/dutch-pm-mark-rutte-nato-top-job-zelenskyy-stoltenberg/
|
2023-11-01T13:58:03
|
2024-10-01T06:52:09
|
2024-10-01T06:52:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-2ty0SOjKaYV2Miiuu4TG
|
Will Jim Harbaugh be the coach of the Michigan Wolverines in Fall 2024?
|
Given the sign stealing allegations (and any other potential reasons), will Jim Harbaugh be coaching Michigan next year? This resolves as "yes" if he is the official head coach of Michigan for the first game of the Fall 2024 Season (or "no" if he is fired, resigns or is no longer the coach for any reason before then).
(Edited to clarify the last line that it will resolve "no" if he is not the coach start of next year for ANY reason, not just fired, which was what the original question asked)
|
2023-11-01T13:30:43
|
2024-01-24T17:24:10
|
2024-01-24T17:24:10
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5oJxj99e4flfvEYiWAdw
|
Will the S&P 500 close higher on November 2 than it closed on November 1?
|
Closes 2pm EDT. NYSE closes 4pm EDT.
S&P Forecasting Dashboard
Resolves based on: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/.INX:INDEXSP
Trading this question counts towards the S&P Forecasting Tournament for the month of November (inspired by Alex B. Goode). At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 2500
2 1500
3 1000
Good luck forecasting!
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-11-01T12:53:19
|
2023-11-02T11:00:00
|
2023-11-02T13:24:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-NSXPWhjEuiqmzhngaAaY
|
Will Americans' confidence in newspapers decline in 2024, according to Gallup?
|
Gallup polls Americans on their confidence in American institutions, publishing results every summer (see 2023, 2022, 2021).
The number of Americans who report a "great deal" or "quite a lot" of confidence in newspapers has declined from an all-time high of 51% in 1979 to 18% in 2023, the second lowest score after 2022's rating of 16%.
Will Gallup polling show a decline (i.e. 17% or less) in Americans' confidence in newspapers in 2024?
More questions on Americans' confidence in US institutions:
overall confidence
organized religion
the military
the Supreme Court
banks
public schools
Congress
television news
organized labor
the presidency
the police
the medical system
the criminal justice system
big business
small business
large technology companies
|
2023-11-01T10:50:55
|
2024-07-15T13:23:46
|
2024-07-15T13:23:46
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-1ToGqUtVksUYtclQkr32
|
Will there be a partial or complete government shutdown in November?
|
Closes midnight EST on Nov 30.
|
2023-11-01T10:15:59
|
2023-11-30T23:59:00
|
2023-12-01T09:05:06
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-m6ia2BthlRU1mhFSVjAJ
|
Will Messi score 3 or more goals in November?
|
All goals scored count, for club or country in any official match played November 2023.
|
2023-11-01T09:39:46
|
2023-11-22T06:21:48
|
2023-11-22T06:21:48
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hNOMGkABihds5MdpY9YC
|
Will Messi score 1 or more goals in November?
|
All goals scored count, for club or country in any official match played November 2023.
|
2023-11-01T09:39:25
|
2023-11-22T06:27:51
|
2023-11-22T06:27:51
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-RffiXqjkiii0CqTx20NM
|
Will stock-to-flow Bitcoin model break before the end of 2025?
|
Stock-to-flow Bitcoin model: This is a price prediction model where the price is predicted based on how much Bitcoin already produced (stock) and the speed at which it's being produced (flow). Detailed explanation here.
Break: for this market, the model will be considered broken if the price goes outside of the 2 standard deviations band of the model (light blue band on the chart below).
[image]Note, that this happend before, for example in 2018. But previous breaks do not count for this market.
Resolves YES: if it's visible* in the 2-year detail chart that the price went outside the 2nd band.
* A red pixel of the chart has a neighbouring white pixel at the left or right side.
Resolves NO: if conditions for YES are not met before close.
Resolves N/A: if the website above that posts the charts stop working, and I fail to find a good replacement for the source of information.
|
2023-11-01T08:45:44
|
2025-02-28T06:07:12
|
2025-02-28T06:07:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-qxFnXRoDnwX8kZ2nB31v
|
Will the Supreme Court decline to intervene in any case involving Trump before 2024 election?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-01T08:37:49
|
2024-11-05T08:14:00
|
2025-02-17T16:58:47
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-orQD9IwxjaXVdjjc4nMw
|
Will San Francisco Mayor London Breed be re-elected in 2024?
|
Will San Francisco's Mayor London Breed be re-elected on 2024?
|
2023-11-01T07:21:11
|
2024-11-06T23:59:00
|
2025-01-08T15:37:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-CepDhJRLWJbR9xsWdgrd
|
Will Kalshi win its lawsuit against the CFTC? (Ṁ2000 subsidy)
|
For now, I'll define "win" as a judge ruling in favor of Kalshi and allowing election markets and/or CFTC settling and allowing election markets.
I'm making this market quickly without giving much thought to the rules, but I'm open to rule refinements and in general subscribe to the "spirit of the market" vibe. Essentially this will resolve as YES if Kalshi achieves its objectives.
|
2023-11-01T07:18:21
|
2024-10-02T14:14:48
|
2024-10-02T14:14:48
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wy4G7lxLKc8QOG06HxC6
|
Will Al-Hilal beat Al-Nassr? ⚽ Ronaldo vs Neymar
|
Saudi Pro League
Yes - Al-Hilal win
No- Al-Nassr win / Draw
|
2023-11-01T06:50:44
|
2023-12-01T20:59:00
|
2023-12-02T05:12:54
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-etfpLZbIz8atdO5st1iY
|
Will the Washington Commanders destroy the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈 Thanksgiving
|
YES if Commanders win. NO if Cowboys win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T06:10:00
|
2023-11-23T19:19:03
|
2023-11-23T19:19:03
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-G78FVymOSBYVxvgFL0qL
|
Will the Green Bay Packers ship the Detroit Lions? 🏈 Thanksgiving
|
YES if Packers win. NO if Lions win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T06:08:42
|
2023-11-23T19:18:40
|
2023-11-23T19:18:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-OHR03uAdOPiyqIDfBz6f
|
Will the Chicago Bears maul the Minnesota Vikings? 🏈 MNF
|
YES if Bears win. NO if Vikings win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T06:06:34
|
2023-11-27T20:59:00
|
2023-11-28T05:26:03
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mVPBWux7GYt6LV2qcV8t
|
Will the Philadelphia Eagles swoop the Kansas City Chiefs? 🏈 MNF
|
YES if Eagles wins. NO if Chiefs win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T06:04:09
|
2023-11-20T20:19:40
|
2023-11-20T20:19:40
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-6Q4oj0d2eMAT4qxaljqO
|
Will the Denver Broncos trample the Buffalo Bills? 🏈 MNF
|
YES if Broncos wins. NO if Bills win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T06:03:05
|
2023-11-13T20:28:09
|
2023-11-13T20:28:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kNEJUROlqrWMvZcU0OW4
|
Will the Baltimore Ravens claw the LA Chargers? 🏈 SNF
|
YES if Ravens win. NO if Chargers win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:57:25
|
2023-11-26T20:41:19
|
2023-11-26T20:41:19
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-kWTut7uEosncDXhL3bHZ
|
Will the San Francisco 49ers excavate the Seattle Seahawks? 🏈 Thanksgiving
|
YES if 49ers win. NO if Seahawks win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:55:33
|
2023-11-23T20:26:45
|
2023-11-23T20:26:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xVVUvyXOWXHvVpXVNM3E
|
Will the Minnesota Vikings pillage the Denver Broncos? 🏈 SNF
|
YES if Vikings win. NO if Broncos win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:52:29
|
2023-11-19T20:29:26
|
2023-11-19T20:29:26
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-XH3taQraLoS5bBFBwWVp
|
Will the New York Jets destroy the Las Vegas Raiders? 🏈 SNF
|
YES if Jets win. NO if Raiders win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:50:57
|
2023-11-12T20:41:50
|
2023-11-12T20:41:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-sMo4Llxiq8MIB9U1IAXa
|
Will the Buffalo Bills trample the Cincinnati Bengals? 🏈 SNF
|
YES if Bills win. NO if Bengals win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:49:50
|
2023-11-05T20:23:11
|
2023-11-05T20:23:11
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-b3r9IP9yykaMQtoZJiXz
|
Will the Seattle Seahawks swoop the Dallas Cowboys? 🏈 TNF
|
YES if Seahawks win. NO if Cowboys win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:47:30
|
2023-11-30T20:40:14
|
2023-11-30T20:40:14
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GG9EMqP37dSJG79ffe4m
|
Will the Miami Dolphins splash the New York Jets? 🏈 Black Friday
|
YES if Miami win. NO if Jets win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:45:46
|
2023-11-24T15:04:10
|
2023-11-24T15:04:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wwWM9l2TW3s7aWBBFRCb
|
Will the Cincinnati Bengals slash the Baltimore Ravens? 🏈 TNF
|
YES if Bengals win. NO if Ravens win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:44:20
|
2023-11-16T20:24:24
|
2023-11-16T20:24:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-u9GppYGsWFQDfgyDptj4
|
Will the Carolina Panthers shred the Chicago Bears? 🏈 TNF
|
YES if Panthers win. NO if Bears win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:42:19
|
2023-11-09T20:12:39
|
2023-11-09T20:12:39
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-q3ui4Ye8sIt4fT4BSbEk
|
Will the Tennessee Titans wreck the Pittsburgh Steelers? 🏈 TNF
|
YES if Titans win. NO if Steelers win or tie.
|
2023-11-01T05:39:05
|
2023-11-02T20:28:50
|
2023-11-02T20:28:50
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Bm5PDdPcIRz5AUjoBWa0
|
Will US federal interest rates be raised again by the end of 2024?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-01T03:36:55
|
2025-01-01T23:59:00
|
2025-02-01T23:03:43
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-hb6pVUOjgD3HiTqVvr6N
|
Israel and Hamas ceasefire by Nov 30?
|
This market will resolve to YES if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas on or before November 30, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise NO.
The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources. An official ceasefire agreement requires public recognition by both parties. Any form of informal, unratified, or verbal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. The ceasefire must last 48h and to have begun before the resolution date (if the ceasefire begins on the resolution date, for example, this market would resolve to "Yes" if the ceasefire continues for 48h).
Update:
As stated above "The resolution will be based on official government announcements from both Israel and Hamas, or reports from credible media sources." and that will form the primary basis for determination of whether the ceasefire lasted at least 48 hours. If such sources are in consensus about whether the ceasefire lasted 48 hours then that should be simple enough; it only gets complicated if they disagree.
I think that the end of the ceasefire should be counted based on whether the involved parties think the ceasefire is still in effect. I agree that isolated incidents of violence would not count as ending the ceasefire unless the parties think it counted as ending the ceasefire. I'm going to leave determination of edge cases up to https://polymarket.com/event/israel-and-hamas-ceasefire-by-nov-30
|
2023-11-01T03:34:20
|
2023-11-26T04:01:02
|
2023-11-26T04:01:02
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jx09cJkRaMmwyYY8XX9Y
|
Will BOTH Bitcoin (BTC) be above $35,000 AND Ethereum (ETH) be above $1,850 at the end of Novembe
11:59 PM EST, 11/30)?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-11-01T03:27:14
|
2023-11-30T20:59:00
|
2023-12-01T10:44:15
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-iZcD0d3jSVNHG74fYRin
|
Will Apple beat $1.39 EPS today?
|
Resolves YES if Apple reports EPS>$1.39 in its Fourth Fiscal Quarter (Jul-Sep) 2023 earnings report, and NO otherwise. Source: Financial Statements release to be published on investor.apple.com at 4:30 pm ET on Thursday, Nov 2, 2023.
|
2023-11-01T01:13:31
|
2023-11-02T14:15:29
|
2023-11-02T14:15:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-YYMZkw2NDAp8KnaJWKDU
|
Will Donald Trump win a majority of the vote in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucus?
|
Exactly what it says on the tin. Consult FiveThirtyEight's polling average of the state for pertinent information. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/
——————
Manifolders are also encouraged to bet on my parallel market:
(https://manifold.markets/embed/CanOfBeans/who-will-come-in-second-place-popul-0ebf978c5e6c)
|
2023-11-01T00:29:16
|
2024-01-16T00:00:00
|
2024-01-17T00:24:38
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-wTJ9GhKDpUxEbaHQjc9h
|
Will Donald Trump still be alive on December 1st, 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-31T23:07:50
|
2023-11-30T22:59:00
|
2023-12-01T04:50:12
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eTQkz4IB6jToGIETA71a
|
Will BTC close higher on November 5 than it did on October 29th? [Weekly]
|
This question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EST), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EST).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Last Sunday's Close: $34,534.40
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 750
3 500
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-31T20:42:31
|
2023-11-05T14:35:14
|
2023-11-05T16:17:35
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-yfkHEOHjKozJ0ohgj3Oj
|
Will Jimmy Carter outlive any current or former POTUS?
|
Closes N/A if Jimmy Carter turns 110 and no POTUS is dead.
I will not be betting on this market nor attempt to influence the results.
|
2023-10-31T20:14:56
|
2024-12-29T15:37:27
|
2024-12-29T15:37:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-r2n5wkbCSU9OqIFU7d3F
|
Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?
|
This excludes famine or epidemic/ pandemics.
In the past 30 years there have been aprox. 10 natural disaster events that have killed more than 50,000 people, including earthquakes and heat waves.
|
2023-10-31T20:14:16
|
2024-12-31T20:59:00
|
2025-02-24T12:45:24
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-7wnrMImcMy48Ei1Uv3ZV
|
Will Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks ⚾️ 11/1/2023?
|
Game Nov 1 @AZ 5:03PM Pacific Time
|
2023-10-31T14:58:51
|
2023-11-01T23:53:06
|
2023-11-01T23:53:06
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-GpLVwXeu2sQjG1jIjaiN
|
Will WeWork Inc. File for Bankruptcy before Nov 12, 2023?
|
context:https://finance.yahoo.com/video/wework-stock-plunges-reports-bankruptcy-205929130.html
This market resolves YES if WeWork Inc files for Chapter 7, Chapter 11, or Chapter 13 Bankruptcy before Nov 12, 2023 00:00 AM Pacific Time (midnight).
|
2023-10-31T14:45:04
|
2023-11-08T09:28:09
|
2023-11-08T09:28:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aQ0uP8QBFRrBwcnYbn6X
|
Will Lewis Hamilton Finish Ahead of Sergio Perez in the 2023 Formula 1 WDC?
|
Resolves YES if Lewis Hamilton finishes the 2023 F1 season with more overall WDC points than Sergio Perez
Resolves NO if Sergio Perez finishes with more overall points than Lewis Hamilton
Resolves N/A if both drivers are tied for points at the end of the season
|
2023-10-31T12:57:18
|
2023-11-20T13:06:49
|
2023-11-20T13:06:49
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-0mwMY3RqBL40ACSD8Vz4
|
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky have any meeting about AI with any member of the US congress, senate, or white house before 2025?
|
Gary Marcus and Sam Altman were in a senate hearing a few months ago. Biden has just signed an executive order on AI capabilities. It could happen!
It doesn't have to be a highly formal meeting like a congressional hearing, but it has to actually be a real "meeting", not just a Twitter reply or a 10 second exchange in a conference Q&A session. A podecast would count if both members are in it and seriously discussing the topic.
Only counts instances after market creation.
|
2023-10-31T12:05:37
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-03T08:21:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-fU5dBSnuoQv6XAxQ3VRb
|
Will the New England Patriots draft a quarterback in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-31T09:56:35
|
2024-04-25T17:38:13
|
2024-04-25T17:38:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-oIIdZ91Y2qP4s3ZyDd1c
|
🏀 2023–24 NBA: Will the San Antonio Spurs defeat the Phoenix Suns?
|
Tip-off: Thursday, November 2, 2023 - 7:00 PM MST
Footprint Center - Phoenix, Arizona
|
2023-10-31T09:29:29
|
2023-11-02T21:40:09
|
2023-11-02T21:40:09
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-Qp8gd03I0JW31mjq9rqF
|
Will 'Ozempic' be word of the year in 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-31T09:25:47
|
2023-12-31T20:46:27
|
2023-12-31T20:46:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-FeTzwYUN269S31AHzdpV
|
Will the 76ers win 46 or more games in the 2023-2024 NBA regular season?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-31T06:53:34
|
2024-04-13T01:28:25
|
2024-04-13T01:28:25
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-WYDm6HgoySjz5n8ioBgD
|
Will X backtrack and rebrand with the original Twittwr name and logo by 2025?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-31T05:09:51
|
2025-01-01T20:59:00
|
2025-01-04T08:24:27
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-KOjTq5L32dKjcbu4ovWn
|
Will the actors strike end by November 7, 2023?
|
Resolves YES if there is a tentative agreement with the negotiators of the strike and the studios before the close date
Resolves NO at close date if there is no tentative agreement
|
2023-10-31T04:02:58
|
2023-11-07T20:59:00
|
2023-11-08T04:08:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-j5KdyS1Uy4Q644Bma6jp
|
Will Fulham beat Manchester United during regular time on Sat, Nov 4, 2023? - Premier League
|
⚽ Fulham vs Manchester United
📅 Date: Saturday, November 4, 2023 ⏰ Start Time (UTC): 12:30
🏆 Competition: Premier League
🔑 Market Resolution:
This market will resolve to YES if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Fulham has more goals
This market will resolve to NO if at the end of regular time plus stoppage time:
- Both teams have an equal number of goals
- Manchester United has more goals
(Other legs, extra time and penalties do not influence the resolution)
🕐 Market Closing Time:
This market will resolve as soon as possible once the resolution criteria is met.
🔎 You can search for more match details on Google
|
2023-10-30T19:46:38
|
2023-11-04T08:30:00
|
2023-11-05T08:42:41
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jvzufs4Irzd340jCfp9L
|
Mohammed Deif (Hamas military commander) killed or captured by Israeli forces by end of 2024?
|
Mohammed Deif is the supreme military commander of Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas.
This market resolves YES on reliable international media reports of the killing or capture of Mohammed Deif by Israeli military forces before the end of 2024, local time in Israel, or NO if he is alive and not captured at the end of 2024.
If Deif's status cannot be ascertained to the satisfaction of the international community - for example: if Israel claims his capture or death, Hamas denies this, and neither provide compelling evidence, this market will resolve N/A.
In the case the outcome is not immediately clear, in establishing whether the international community has formed consensus on the status of Deif at the end of 2024, I will turn to Wikipedia as an indication. If the article on Deif says it is not known whether he is alive or dead, or free or captive, that's a clear N/A. If it says he is believed to be dead or captured, that's a YES. If it says he is believed to be alive and free, that's a NO. I will ensure any statements in Wikipedia do not appear to be part of an edit war. If Wikipedia doesn't seem like it is living up to my expectations as a good indicator of the consensus view of the international community, I may use other sources.
As this may involve a judgement call, I will not bet in this market.
Corner cases: If Deif kills himself (assisted or otherwise) in order to avoid capture, the market will resolve YES. If he is killed by friendly fire or some other mishap during and related to an active battle with or or attack by Israeli forces, the market will resolve YES. If he dies due to some other mishap outside of a battle or attack and not caused by Israeli forces, or is intentionally killed by anyone other than Israeli forces (other than as a means to avoid capture) the market resolves NO.
Addendum Nov 11th 2023: this market will resolve at the latest at end of 2024, given the state of public knowledge at that time. If Deif was killed/captured before the end of 2024 but we don't find out about it until 2025, this market will still resolve NO
|
2023-10-30T18:55:44
|
2024-08-01T16:45:29
|
2024-08-01T16:45:29
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-SiTN5x7UWKYk2YopK09J
|
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by end of 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the Reserve Bank of Australia lowers the cash rate target at any point prior to Jan 1st 2025
|
2023-10-30T18:50:15
|
2025-01-07T20:57:00
|
2025-01-07T20:57:00
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-gyBIumRBiZxibhkD69bQ
|
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates by end of Q2 2024?
|
Resolves YES if the Reserve Bank of Australia lowers the cash rate target at any point prior to July 1st 2024
|
2023-10-30T18:49:27
|
2024-07-01T06:59:00
|
2024-07-01T15:11:54
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-jLmVYSCmaJoJLt9tcQ9X
|
Will Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah die before 2025?
|
Resolves positively if credible sources report Hassan Nasrallah as having died from any cause by the end of 2024.
|
2023-10-30T17:27:35
|
2024-09-28T04:56:07
|
2024-09-28T04:56:07
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ofUWeVUmyeVbolz6XZzB
|
Will Texas Rangers beat Arizona Diamondbacks ⚾️ 10/31/2023?
|
Game Oct 31 @AZ 5:03PM Pacific Time
|
2023-10-30T14:37:25
|
2023-11-01T00:02:53
|
2023-11-01T00:02:53
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-rYoXH1C5kgUXLDs6UZM2
|
Will Tesla reach $250 before the end of 2023?
|
Tesla has not been doing well, as the overall stock market has been quite volatile, let's see if Teslas Q4 Earnings results will help swing the stock back up into a upwards momentum.
|
2023-10-30T12:13:16
|
2023-11-29T06:32:21
|
2023-11-29T06:32:21
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QUCQVyi9nSoKWNwVvVts
|
Will Cruise give notice for a mass layoff (50+ employees) before the end of 2023
|
Mass layoff a la the CA WARN act: a layoff of 50 or more employees within any 30 day period (which would require 60 days advance notice in CA).
Resolves YES if layoff notice of 50 or more employees is given and reputably reported on between now and the end of 2023, even if the actual layoffs (60 days later) occur after the start of 2024.
Resolves NO at the start of 2024 if no layoffs have been announced or reputably reported.
Market ending in Q1 2024: https://manifold.markets/MingweiSamuel/will-cruise-give-notice-for-a-mass-267e7a048316
|
2023-10-30T10:43:53
|
2023-12-14T08:50:58
|
2023-12-14T08:50:58
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-QgH4c4ssWtFmLu6bNitE
|
Will AAPL close higher on Friday than it did on Monday?
|
Resolves YES if the closing price on Friday is higher than the closing price on Monday.
This question closes 2 hours before the stock exchange closes on the Friday.
Monday Close Price: $170.29
https://www.google.com/finance/quote/AAPL:NASDAQ
NOTE: To make these markets more rapid, I will not be adding dates to the title. Please look up the market creation, but I will never make markets a week ahead, only the current week.
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
|
2023-10-30T08:51:22
|
2023-11-03T11:00:00
|
2023-11-03T13:18:37
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-HOtyuO9B3CXA6HnWncTk
|
Will the merger of Broadcom and VMWare be finalized prior to November 26, 2023?
|
Broadcom-VMware merger held up as China delays $69bn deal - Financial Times
|
2023-10-30T08:33:48
|
2023-11-22T09:54:08
|
2023-11-22T09:54:08
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-EqZvpvjbpf2Kci8Fh3kE
|
[November Start] Will Bitcoin BTC close higher on November 1 than it closed on October 31?
|
Question closes at 11pm UTC (7pm EDT), BTC daily price close at 12am UTC (8pm EDT).
Resolves based on Google Finance reporting: https://www.google.com/finance/quote/BTC-USD
Previous Close: $34,656.40
This market is part of the new preliminary BTC league for October. At the end of the month top traders are eligible for a prize.
Rank---Award
1 1500
2 750
3 500
Trading in this market counts towards the @SirCryptomind Q4 Mana Leaderboard.
DASHBOARD (General Info, Top 10 Prize Info, Bonus Mana Rewards Info, etc.)
SIMILAR MARKETS
LEADERBOARD STATS
[link preview]
|
2023-10-30T08:32:02
|
2023-11-01T16:00:00
|
2023-11-01T17:08:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-n8snPlmIivtoaIjvOHOD
|
In the Republican Presidential Primary, will Nikki Haley be polling ahead of Ron DeSantis on Dec1, 2023?
|
This will be resolved using the first December update of National polling results here: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-republican-primary-updates/
[link preview]resolves NO if there is a tie.
|
2023-10-30T08:17:06
|
2023-12-01T23:59:00
|
2023-12-02T07:13:47
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-eolgWcDzc2FfL8kuxJLU
|
Will Max Verstappen win the Brazillian GP 2023?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-30T07:52:48
|
2023-11-05T11:04:10
|
2023-11-05T11:04:13
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mNI8qOxpfMu0z0i7pvwy
|
[Kalshi] Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by March 20, 2024?
|
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by March 20, 2024?
Resolves the same as the original on Kalshi.
Resolution criteria
If the Federal Reserve cuts its target federal funds rate range at least once between August 29, 2023 and March 20, 2024, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution sources
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous. Feel free to ping @jskf to request early resolution or to report issues.
|
2023-10-30T06:50:05
|
2024-03-21T15:55:53
|
2024-03-21T15:55:53
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-mmzhHTZPcnw23tbEHDB8
|
[Metaculus] Will Donald Trump be blocked from any state primary ballot under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
|
Will Donald Trump be removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?
Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/18716/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
This question will resolve as "Yes" if, on July 15, 2024:
Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the primary election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, legal documentation, or credible media reports. Speculative reports, opinion pieces, or unofficial announcements will not suffice for resolution.
The question will resolve as "No" if these conditions are not met as of July 15, 2024.
Note: The question does not account for legal battles, appeals, or subsequent reversals that might occur after the mentioned date. It strictly pertains to whether Donald Trump has been removed from any state's primary election ballot for a federal office under the specified grounds as of July 15, 2024. If Trump is removed or blocked from a ballot and then reinstated, such that as of July 15th he is not removed or blocked from any ballot, the question resolves negatively.
Once the original resolves, its resolution will be applied to this market automatically. Trustworthy-ish users are encouraged to resolve this market before then if the outcome is known and unambiguous.
|
2023-10-30T06:34:17
|
2024-07-16T10:00:00
|
2024-07-18T19:40:21
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-C3FIEolPYiIenZrHEaPK
|
Will 'Alan Wake II' be nominated for Game of the Year at The Game Awards 2023?
|
If 'Alan Wake II' is announced as a nominee for the Game of the Year category at The Game Awards 2023, this market will resolve to YES. If the nominees are announced and 'Alan Wake II' is not one of them, this market will resolve to NO.
|
2023-10-30T05:45:26
|
2023-11-13T09:32:45
|
2023-11-13T09:32:45
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-tHyrigqUxI54dC0eLnjz
|
Will NE Patriots beat DC Commanders this week?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-30T04:27:14
|
2023-11-05T16:52:22
|
2023-11-05T16:52:22
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-a9wOZd4ZfG6hD1e1xr6a
|
Will Hamas release 50 hostages by the end of 2023?
|
As of 10/30 four hostages have been released.
|
2023-10-30T04:23:09
|
2023-11-26T13:45:01
|
2023-11-26T13:45:01
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-xampBM4a5mJIY2MaNPKg
|
Will Mike Johnson visit Israel as Speaker?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-30T02:16:26
|
2025-01-06T21:59:00
|
2025-01-11T18:11:59
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-ptD5OXlta1AqKVmJChvL
|
Will any refugees be allowed to leave Gaza by the end of November?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-30T02:10:12
|
2023-11-09T03:48:10
|
2023-11-09T03:48:10
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-aZEmQuleiw210OUvDHvy
|
Palestine state officially recognised by at least one new country by the end of 2025? 🇵🇸
|
Current international recognition of Palestine state:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_recognition_of_the_State_of_Palestine
|
2023-10-30T00:20:29
|
2024-05-22T00:55:36
|
2024-05-22T00:55:36
|
yes
|
MANIFOLD
|
mani-5BHhQBYv4bnacgCypPKr
|
Will Mike Johnson visit Ukraine as Speaker?
|
{'type': 'doc', 'content': [{'type': 'paragraph'}]}
|
2023-10-29T23:59:05
|
2025-01-06T21:59:00
|
2025-01-11T18:12:31
|
no
|
MANIFOLD
|
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